:00:03. > :00:13.technology. 50 years is a long time in politics and even longer if you
:00:13. > :00:14.
:00:14. > :00:18.do not like budgets. On Newsnight Scotland tonight. The
:00:18. > :00:23.sun's up and so is economic growth. There are clear signs that we're
:00:23. > :00:26.seeing some kind of recovery. So, if there's a feel good factor coming,
:00:26. > :00:31.how will it shape political strategies for the referendum and
:00:31. > :00:37.the 2015 general election? And on the eve of the Open, the Royal and
:00:37. > :00:44.Ancient responds to the row about men-only venues. We have got
:00:44. > :00:49.politicians posturing, interest groups attacking the Open and
:00:49. > :00:54.attacking your field. I have made a few notes about this as you can
:00:54. > :00:57.see! The tournament tees off in just a few hours' time. We look at the
:00:57. > :01:04.row which has engulfed it and ask if boycotts of such events are
:01:04. > :01:07.effective or reasonable. Good evening. The sun's been
:01:07. > :01:10.shining, more people have been out shopping, more people are in
:01:10. > :01:13.employment, inflation's not as bad as expected, the Scottish economy is
:01:13. > :01:16.registering real growth. House prices in many areas are creeping
:01:16. > :01:19.up, the UK economic optimism index is in positive territory for the
:01:19. > :01:23.first time in three years. So who can possibly be gloomy about the
:01:23. > :01:26.future? Well, the answer to that may be any politicians who don't think
:01:26. > :01:32.they're going to reap a reward from all that positive stuff.
:01:32. > :01:37.Strictly speaking unemployment in Scotland got worse today. One of the
:01:37. > :01:42.UK figure improved. But the unemployment rate here remains lower
:01:42. > :01:47.than the UK rate. Economic growth in the first quarter of the year showed
:01:47. > :01:53.a relatively strong performance. The economy here growing at 1.2%
:01:53. > :02:02.annually, more than twice the UK rate. Then there are retail sales,
:02:02. > :02:06.growing by 2.8% in June at close to 2.9% for the UK. The poll measured
:02:06. > :02:09.economic confidence and today revealed that more people in Britain
:02:09. > :02:16.are optimistic about the economy rather than pessimistic for the
:02:16. > :02:20.first time in three years. That is across the whole of written but also
:02:20. > :02:25.includes Scotland. People in Scotland also feel slightly more
:02:25. > :02:32.optimistic and I guess it shows that people coming out of appealing that
:02:32. > :02:37.we are in a slump and starting to feel tentatively more optimistic
:02:37. > :02:41.about the economic future. Of course it is not all positive. The figures
:02:41. > :02:48.today also show Scotland has ongoing problems with long-term unemployment
:02:48. > :02:52.and women's unemployment. A report for the UK office of budget
:02:52. > :02:58.responsibility says that North Sea oil revenues are in decline and will
:02:58. > :03:03.continue to decline over 25 years. The key question remains, who gets
:03:03. > :03:09.the credit and who gets the blame? It is an interesting question.
:03:09. > :03:14.is not any real clear evidence. Amongst most voters in Scotland it
:03:14. > :03:19.is pretty unclear as to where the balance of powers lie, who does
:03:19. > :03:25.what, who is responsible for what. People who find it difficult to
:03:25. > :03:30.assign either credit or blame for economic performance. What we do
:03:30. > :03:35.know is that the current SNP government in Scotland is still
:03:35. > :03:38.pretty popular, still ahead in the polls. When we ask about the
:03:38. > :03:42.performance of the Scottish government, voters still think it is
:03:42. > :03:48.doing a good job. Bill Clinton's residential campaign was credited
:03:48. > :03:56.with coining it into the, as an election winning mantra but nowadays
:03:56. > :03:59.all parties are aware of its potency.
:03:59. > :04:02.I'm joined here in the studio by Natalie McGarry, an SNP candidate
:04:02. > :04:06.for the European Parliament. And by David Whitton, a former Labour MSP.
:04:06. > :04:13.But let's go first to John McLaren of the Centre for Public Policy of
:04:13. > :04:18.the Regions, who's in Manchester for us this evening. Just on the
:04:18. > :04:23.economics, the fact that unemployment is rising here, whereas
:04:23. > :04:28.it has gone down across the UK, is there anything other than
:04:28. > :04:33.statistical quirkiness involved in this? I do not think so. The labour
:04:33. > :04:37.market figures in particular have been up and down across all the
:04:37. > :04:42.regions including Scotland. Scotland had a big dip in the last year and
:04:42. > :04:49.is now a big bounce back. Over the year as a whole the position has not
:04:49. > :04:55.changed relative to the UK that much. So when politicians either
:04:55. > :05:00.claim, it is all down to them that unemployment falls or someone
:05:00. > :05:04.else's falls when it rises, you think people would be best served by
:05:04. > :05:10.just whistling to themselves until they stop doing that? It would be
:05:10. > :05:15.better to look at the bigger picture which is that growth is still slow
:05:15. > :05:19.and the UK recovery period has been slower in Scotland than in the UK.
:05:19. > :05:25.The UK is one of the slowest on the international scene. So it is a
:05:25. > :05:30.pretty poor picture. Employment is better but a lot of that has to do
:05:30. > :05:37.with the fact that incomes have been growing slowly if at all. So there's
:05:37. > :05:43.not a of credit to go round. On the other hand we are seeing some
:05:43. > :05:49.signs, we have had negativity for so long and we are starting to see
:05:49. > :05:58.things like unemployment going down across the UK. GDP is growing, they
:05:58. > :06:04.have revised the figures. Retail sales, you know, not buoyant at
:06:04. > :06:12.going up a bit. We had some fairly positive business surveys recently.
:06:12. > :06:15.There is just a sense that we are not exactly going into a room but
:06:15. > :06:19.perhaps some corner has been turned. Perhaps but some of these surveys
:06:19. > :06:22.have said similar things in the past couple of years and it has not come
:06:22. > :06:27.to fruition. The worrying thing is the recovery was supposed to be on
:06:27. > :06:32.the back of improved trade performance, higher exports and a
:06:32. > :06:37.boom in investment. Those have not led to the little growth that we
:06:37. > :06:41.have seen, that has been driven by consumption, both government and
:06:41. > :06:44.households. Household consumption has come about through the savings
:06:44. > :06:50.ratio falling and the government one will eventually peter out because
:06:50. > :06:55.there are more cuts to come. So if it is in recovery it is an odd
:06:55. > :06:59.shaped recovery and you would want it from the investment and export
:06:59. > :07:04.side to be more confident that this is going to pan out well. Just
:07:04. > :07:09.before we speak to the politicians, or would-be politicians, you would
:07:09. > :07:14.expect that right the way through the referendum campaign next year
:07:14. > :07:18.and right the way through the general election campaign of the
:07:18. > :07:24.year after and perhaps even through the Scottish election campaign, the
:07:24. > :07:29.best you could hope for is things growing a little bit but Noel
:07:29. > :07:36.returned to the kind of economic growth that we saw in the early
:07:36. > :07:41.2000. Is that fair? Of growth keeps on even at the sluggish levels we
:07:41. > :07:47.have seen recently, it will not be until about 2017 that we get back to
:07:47. > :07:53.the previous week. We will still be below the level that we were at the
:07:53. > :07:57.beginning of the recession. So the main debate at the minute, and the
:07:57. > :08:02.referendum debate is pushing that slightly to one side, is how to
:08:02. > :08:08.restart growth. Some of the issues we are talking about currency union
:08:08. > :08:16.or whatever, have a relevance but others are quite minor issues.
:08:16. > :08:24.interested just from each of you, if we do get some economic recovery, no
:08:24. > :08:33.matter how mild, for the yes campaign, is that a good or a bad
:08:33. > :08:41.thing? Any recovery is good for the whole of the UK. I mean for you,
:08:41. > :08:46.your political campaign? It is a good thing. I think your phrasing it
:08:46. > :08:51.in the sense that I would not want to see the economy recover. Just in
:08:51. > :08:56.terms of the politics. The obvious problem is that the more the economy
:08:56. > :09:02.recovers the more going around saying the only way to escape years
:09:02. > :09:06.of economic decline is to vote for independence, losers and ability.
:09:06. > :09:11.course there is that argument but economic growth in Scotland in this
:09:11. > :09:17.quarter is higher than it has been in the rest of the UK. What people
:09:17. > :09:22.might see is that economic recovery is affecting people at the top of
:09:22. > :09:27.the food chain, so to speak. I do not know if people at the bottom are
:09:27. > :09:33.going to see much impact from that. The way that looking forward to the
:09:33. > :09:39.election of 2015 and the referendum is that the cuts in place, and the
:09:39. > :09:45.austerity, is still going to be in place by the there are sluggish
:09:45. > :09:49.signs of economic recovery. A polite way of saying that you hope things
:09:49. > :09:59.will turn up horribly for people. I'm not saying I want that to
:09:59. > :10:02.
:10:02. > :10:05.happen. Any economic growth has to be a good thing. I do not think
:10:05. > :10:12.anyone would suggest you are saying you hate the idea of economic
:10:12. > :10:19.growth. Politically it does put Labour in a dilemma, there is no
:10:19. > :10:23.denying that. If it looked as if the Tories... Just in terms of the
:10:23. > :10:29.independence referendum campaign. There is a problem for Natalie
:10:29. > :10:35.McGarry does Nick side and for your side, the more you get signs of
:10:35. > :10:38.economic recovery more people might say, I was not going to vote for
:10:38. > :10:44.independence when the whole world was suffering but if things are
:10:44. > :10:49.looking up, I might take a chance on it. I could turn that around and say
:10:49. > :10:54.there is economic recovery or cause we are part of the UK and part of
:10:54. > :10:59.the bigger market. But I am suggesting that people might think,
:10:59. > :11:02.I would just take a chance. I think quite the opposite, but they would
:11:02. > :11:07.not take a chance that they would be better staying with what they know
:11:07. > :11:17.and what they have had going for them for the past 300 years.
:11:17. > :11:18.
:11:18. > :11:23.Scotland has done very well out of the union during that time.
:11:23. > :11:31.Labour's chances of winning the next election would go down. I do not
:11:31. > :11:36.know about that. Spin doctors and politicians sit down and analyse
:11:37. > :11:44.these albums but the latest poll has got Labour 11 points ahead. So
:11:44. > :11:51.things are going fine. You know that polls especially in England show
:11:51. > :11:56.that people buy the government argument that things are tough but
:11:56. > :12:02.we just have to do it. If George Osborne can say, it has been tasked
:12:02. > :12:08.but things are looking up, people would be more inclined to buy that.
:12:08. > :12:12.But they also look at who is getting the benefit from the recovery. If
:12:12. > :12:17.multimillionaires are getting more and people at the bottom end, then
:12:18. > :12:24.those at the bottom also have a vote and will look carefully at the
:12:24. > :12:30.economic policies of each party and decide what is best for them.
:12:30. > :12:38.terms of who might win the next general election, what is of benefit
:12:38. > :12:45.to your side of the referendum campaign? Some opinion polls have
:12:45. > :12:52.said that if there is a likelihood Tories will be in power again, then
:12:52. > :12:58.the appetite for independence rises. That must be terrible for you.
:12:58. > :13:06.Either way if there is economic recovery, the likelihood is that
:13:07. > :13:11.they will vote the Tories back in. Because Labour admitted to the same
:13:12. > :13:21.economic spending as the Tories. Why take the chance to bring in another
:13:22. > :13:23.
:13:23. > :13:27.government? Is there evidence in the opinion polls but people in Scotland
:13:27. > :13:37.are more likely to vote for independence if the Tories win the
:13:37. > :13:38.
:13:38. > :13:42.next election? What would happen if the Tories are voted in again there
:13:42. > :13:47.is a democratic argument for independence. You have a government
:13:47. > :13:52.which the Scottish people did not vote in. At least if it was
:13:52. > :13:57.labouring they could say they have voted for a Labour government. So
:13:57. > :14:02.there is a democratic argument as well as a policy argument. But for
:14:02. > :14:05.the Scottish people they know that austerity is going to be there until
:14:05. > :14:11.at least 2017 and will not change with the Labour Party if they come
:14:11. > :14:17.back. The Democratic deficit is answered by a thing called the
:14:17. > :14:22.Scottish Parliament. John McLaren, do you think politics would be
:14:22. > :14:27.affected by what is likely to happen? Does there need to be a
:14:27. > :14:33.feel-good factor do you think? Or just a perception by people that
:14:33. > :14:38.this might have been tough but we are going in the right direction?
:14:38. > :14:44.There is so much confusion and uncertainty at the moment that that
:14:44. > :14:51.is not going to change in the period leading up to the referendum. I
:14:51. > :14:55.think that is a given. What could change things, the office for budget
:14:55. > :15:00.responsibility report came out today and that is important. The issues in
:15:00. > :15:06.there about long-term funding for health, in the longer term these
:15:06. > :15:11.difficult issues will have to be decided on. If more debate around
:15:11. > :15:17.the referendum was how those are going to be addressed, whether
:15:17. > :15:22.taxation, or more money going into investment or prevention in early
:15:22. > :15:30.years, perhaps we could have a more interesting discussion and more
:15:30. > :15:40.interesting divergences appearing. So, George Osborne deserves some
:15:40. > :15:48.credit? I don't believe you do it serves any credit. He has turned the
:15:48. > :15:52.economy round! He isn't turning the economy around. This is not a trend,
:15:52. > :15:58.to say the economy has turned around is presumptuous. We are lagging
:15:58. > :16:02.behind the growth of other countries in the EU. We have to leave it
:16:02. > :16:07.there. Don't go away because you want to talk to you again in a
:16:07. > :16:12.moment. First of all, at 6:32am, Peter Senior will hit the first
:16:12. > :16:17.bought in the open tournament. Alex Salmond will not be there to see him
:16:17. > :16:26.do it. Not because it is ridiculously early. It is a boycott.
:16:26. > :16:29.He's not going because the course at does not allow women members. It has
:16:29. > :16:33.a long and venerable history. Stevie Wonder announced he won't perform in
:16:33. > :16:38.Florida because of the law under which course and was acquitted.
:16:38. > :16:42.We've been assessing how affective boycotts can be.
:16:42. > :16:47.The first Minister is a keen golfer but he is not happy about the men
:16:47. > :16:51.only membership brought at the host's course. Alex Salmond says
:16:52. > :16:56.he's not boycotting the event but he will not be attending. To have the
:16:56. > :17:00.message women are not welcome as members, cannot be members, cannot
:17:00. > :17:05.have rights on the same basis as men, sends out the wrong message
:17:05. > :17:09.about the future of golf. He's not the only one raising claims of
:17:09. > :17:13.injustice. Last night, Stevie Wonder announced he wouldn't be playing in
:17:13. > :17:23.Florida and other states which endorse a controversial law allowing
:17:23. > :17:24.
:17:25. > :17:28.people to use deadly force if they believe their lives are in danger.
:17:28. > :17:36.And until your law is abolished in Florida, I will never performed
:17:36. > :17:42.there again. The term boycott first entered use in 1880 during the
:17:42. > :17:45.so-called Irish land war. Charles Boycott, the agent of urban and
:17:45. > :17:53.certainty landlord, found himself ostracised by the local community
:17:53. > :18:00.wannabe to sit -- dispute with tenants resulted with people
:18:00. > :18:03.refusing to engage with him. Nelson Mandela, a free man. And a
:18:04. > :18:07.boycott of South Africa during the apartheid era was seen as a vital
:18:07. > :18:14.catalyst for change according to the man who chaired Scotland's movement
:18:14. > :18:18.against the regime. The boycott allowed an ordinary people to be
:18:18. > :18:24.involved to take an active part in their day-to-day lives by not buying
:18:24. > :18:28.South African goods, by not watching South African teams who came here,
:18:28. > :18:34.and demonstrating and picketing. In other words, they could do
:18:34. > :18:39.something, they felt powerful rather than impotence. That's the thing
:18:40. > :18:45.about involving a lot of people. It gives them a power which, United,
:18:45. > :18:50.they can make change. Whatever form it takes, boycotting is seen as
:18:50. > :18:56.something that can send out a powerful message. Boycotts have come
:18:56. > :19:01.and gone. This is an ongoing tool that is used by protesters. It is
:19:01. > :19:05.often, I think, the case that people are accused of injecting politics
:19:05. > :19:12.into something which is regarded as a political, so if you call for a
:19:12. > :19:15.boycott of a cultural event, and artistic event, you're somehow seen
:19:15. > :19:21.as the politicised one. When it is often the case that politics and
:19:21. > :19:24.power are embedded in the culture. And, actually, it is the boycott
:19:24. > :19:30.which is highlighting some of the inequalities that are taking place
:19:30. > :19:36.at that event. If what is happening at Muirfield is boycott, it is one
:19:36. > :19:41.which golf 's governing body looks set to resist. We've got politicians
:19:41. > :19:50.posturing, we've got interest groups attacking the R&A, attacking the
:19:50. > :19:55.open, and Muirfield. As you can see, I've made a few notes about this. To
:19:55. > :20:00.be honest, our natural reaction is to resist these pressures because we
:20:00. > :20:05.actually don't think they have substance. But I'd like to stress we
:20:05. > :20:14.are not so insular as to fail to recognise the potential damage that
:20:14. > :20:19.campaigns like this can to the open. Morally, what is the difference
:20:19. > :20:25.between men only and whites only? Goodness me, eroded -- a ridiculous
:20:25. > :20:32.question. There is a massive difference between anti-Semitism,
:20:32. > :20:37.racial discrimination, where sections of society are treated
:20:37. > :20:45.badly indeed, and to compare that with a men's golf club is absurd.
:20:45. > :20:50.There is no comparison whatsoever. Right, well, that was incredibly
:20:50. > :20:55.impressive bit of spluttering verve. Do you take it seriously? I think we
:20:55. > :21:01.should. My golf club has for women's rights. Women's members have the
:21:01. > :21:06.same rights I've got which makes it better. What did you make of that?
:21:06. > :21:10.All the signs of over defensiveness? Very over defensive.
:21:10. > :21:13.They will never solve that until somebody like one of the top players
:21:13. > :21:18.says, we will not play unless you change the rules. If they keep
:21:18. > :21:22.turning up, they can carry on like that. If Tiger Woods had said this
:21:22. > :21:29.week, I'm not playing at Muirfield because of that, can you imagine the
:21:29. > :21:33.kind of story? What did you make of it? I want to see women at the
:21:33. > :21:35.forefront of political debate in public life, so, obviously, my
:21:35. > :21:41.opinion and the opinions of most normal people is that it is
:21:41. > :21:48.outrageous. Whatever he thinks about the first Minister's motivations
:21:48. > :21:53.behind it, it is a principled stand and women should be allowed. You
:21:53. > :21:57.sometimes hear the argument, including from the people who run
:21:57. > :22:00.these institutions, they say, oh, you know, it's not really
:22:00. > :22:05.discrimination because we've got a women's club as well. And we've got
:22:05. > :22:11.a men's club. And everyone's happy with that. Would you take that
:22:11. > :22:15.seriously? That's nonsense. David is right. They won't take it seriously
:22:15. > :22:22.until somebody does something. When the golfing institutions or the
:22:22. > :22:26.golfing body allows events like the open to go to Muirfield, they need
:22:26. > :22:35.to know that sexism is wrong. If they want to have the boys club, let
:22:35. > :22:39.them do that. We have women's clubs because there are men's clubs.
:22:39. > :22:49.a happy note on which to end this discussion. Wright, the front
:22:49. > :22:50.
:22:50. > :22:57.pages. The SNP accused of madness to base separation case on oil. The
:22:57. > :23:01.daily Telegraph, we risk war with Syria. The Independent, welcome to
:23:01. > :23:11.the British open, unless you're a woman. We will be back tomorrow.
:23:11. > :23:18.
:23:18. > :23:25.will be changes in our weather, but today, more sunshine for Scotland
:23:25. > :23:28.and Northern Ireland. Further south, perhaps some hotspots for the West.
:23:28. > :23:34.For Northern Ireland, decent sunny spells in the midtwenties. Similar
:23:34. > :23:40.figures forecast across southern and eastern Scotland, some persistent
:23:40. > :23:43.mist and Merck. Just the isolated chance of a shower across eastern
:23:43. > :23:48.Scotland. Sunny spells from northern England, sunshine across the
:23:48. > :23:51.Midlands into East Anglia and eastern England. Some of the
:23:51. > :23:55.temperatures here just a couple of degrees down on the last few days as
:23:55. > :24:01.we stopped to pick up a bit of an easterly breeze. That will see our
:24:01. > :24:10.hires more intense further east. -- that will see the hires more intense
:24:10. > :24:13.further east. For Friday, I think it will be a dry day. Almost right away
:24:13. > :24:17.across the British Isles. Still plenty of heat around across the
:24:17. > :24:24.southern half of the UK but, again, temperatures in one or two spots a
:24:24. > :24:27.degree or two down in recent days. In the North, temperatures go up,
:24:27. > :24:31.particularly across western Scotland. In Glasgow, we could be