:00:15. > :00:20.supporters have a profound belief Tonight, what is housing for? Prices
:00:20. > :00:24.here are showing some signs of recovery but is it good for the
:00:25. > :00:31.wider economy? And we are looking at the row over
:00:31. > :00:33.who is over Labour for independence and ask whether Labour's heartlands
:00:33. > :00:39.could be persuaded to vote yes macro.
:00:39. > :00:48.If you are a homeowner from East Rand Fuchsia, the value of your
:00:48. > :00:51.property has increased. -- East Renfrewshire. There is only one
:00:51. > :01:01.problem, wasn't it housing debt that crashed the economy in the first
:01:01. > :01:07.
:01:08. > :01:10.House prices have long been used as a measure of how well the economy is
:01:10. > :01:18.doing. Going by the latest information, it seems ins may
:01:18. > :01:21.looking positive. According to figures from Registers of Scotland,
:01:21. > :01:26.the total proportion of Scottish house sales increased by just over
:01:26. > :01:34.8% between April and June this year. Over the same period, the average
:01:34. > :01:37.house price fell slightly by 0.3%, to stand at just over �153,000. In
:01:37. > :01:44.more affluent areas like East Renfrewshire, the average going rate
:01:44. > :01:49.for a house is well above what it is nationally. Averages for properties
:01:49. > :01:55.in this area have breached the �200,000 mark. What can we take from
:01:55. > :02:01.the figures? The figures show that the volume of sales in Scotland has
:02:01. > :02:04.increased by over 8% and the value has increased as well by 7%. The
:02:04. > :02:09.average house price has produced very slightly across Scotland that
:02:09. > :02:13.this is a trend we have seen over the last eight months, which is
:02:13. > :02:16.encouraging. Encouraging is one way to look at it but it is also argued
:02:16. > :02:24.that an upturn in the market does not always be quite to a good news
:02:24. > :02:31.story. So many policymakers seem to learn no lessons whatsoever from the
:02:31. > :02:34.2007 crisis. Housing transactions may be beginning to rise but the
:02:34. > :02:39.fact is that housing supply, which is what we should really be
:02:39. > :02:45.concerned about at this moment in time is not showing any sign of
:02:45. > :02:48.rising at all. All the policy coming forward from a UK level seems
:02:48. > :02:53.designed to increase prices and do nothing about supply. It is the
:02:53. > :02:56.opposite of what needs to be happening. Nevertheless, governments
:02:56. > :03:01.do drive aspirations for people in this country to own homes, like the
:03:01. > :03:06.Chancellor's current scheme to help people onto the property ladder
:03:06. > :03:10.through equity loans. But do these types of policies help the economy?
:03:10. > :03:18.Remark it seems to be good for existing home owners but they are
:03:18. > :03:22.simply pressing out the next generation of home owners. So you
:03:22. > :03:25.have got to ask, is this really worthwhile? We did some research a
:03:25. > :03:31.couple of years ago which suggests it is actually quite hard to find
:03:31. > :03:35.evidence that either from a macro economic point of view or micro
:03:35. > :03:41.economic that rising home ownership actually helps the economy in the
:03:41. > :03:46.long term. Politically, it is H difficult to change the cultural
:03:46. > :03:53.domination of home ownership. you look at countries like France,
:03:53. > :03:59.Germany or Switzerland, they do not have the same home ownership rates
:03:59. > :04:05.but there are economy is strong. how does it need to change? Many
:04:05. > :04:09.have argued for many years for a restructuring of housing taxation to
:04:09. > :04:12.make housing more like other assets so that when people are thinking
:04:12. > :04:18.about saving and investing, Bayview housing like any other asset rather
:04:18. > :04:23.than putting all their eggs in one basket, as many people do. That may
:04:23. > :04:26.be a laudable aim but experts also warn it will not happen overnight
:04:27. > :04:35.and of course, as the latest figures show, there is no shortage of people
:04:35. > :04:38.wanting to buy homes. I am joined by Andy Kerr, who was until 2007 the
:04:38. > :04:43.Labour finance minister in the Scottish executive, also joked
:04:43. > :04:47.Armstrong of the Centre for Public Policy for Regions. Jo Armstrong,
:04:47. > :04:50.this equity loan scheme that Andrew was referring to. No one has much of
:04:50. > :04:54.a problem with that because it is specifically for new-build houses
:04:54. > :05:00.but there is another one about to come in, mortgage guarantee scheme.
:05:00. > :05:05.Is that a good idea? The issue is whether or not having higher house
:05:05. > :05:10.prices gives people some sort of feel-good factor that makes them go
:05:10. > :05:13.out and spend money and part of the recent... Specifically on the
:05:13. > :05:16.mortgage guarantee scheme, I know one of the criticisms of it is all
:05:16. > :05:22.it is going to do, because it guarantees a section of people's
:05:22. > :05:25.mortgages, is encouraged them to go one rung up the ladder more than
:05:25. > :05:29.they can afford. Some house-builders would argue in order for them to
:05:29. > :05:33.sell their new properties they have to have the market up the ladder, so
:05:34. > :05:38.part of it will help first-time wires and therefore help with the
:05:38. > :05:42.construction sector. It will have some effect but I think the bubbly
:05:42. > :05:46.most commentators would argue that the scheme that is coming in in
:05:46. > :05:53.January has a higher probability of inflating prices rather than
:05:53. > :06:01.actually helping. And potentially when it stops could depress prices?
:06:01. > :06:08.The idea is that at that point the economy does on the up. -- is on the
:06:08. > :06:14.up. The bigger point, have we got a wrong attitude to housing? We have
:06:14. > :06:22.certainly taken on home ownership with gusto in the last 30 years.
:06:22. > :06:25.60%, 70%. There is a wealth effect as your house price rises. People
:06:25. > :06:30.have been using that wealth effect to release funds to buy household
:06:30. > :06:35.goods. That in itself also helps... But when the film taught about
:06:35. > :06:40.changing the structure, the main thing is the fact you do not have to
:06:40. > :06:46.pay capital gains tax on any increase in the value of your house.
:06:46. > :06:49.-- the film talked about. So people are not being irrational. The Lowe
:06:49. > :06:59.the taxation regime for housing is definitely different to other
:06:59. > :06:59.
:06:59. > :07:04.assets. That is a problem because as they form a politician but Mark --
:07:04. > :07:09.as a former politician... It is almost impossible for any politician
:07:09. > :07:12.of any party to say, look as the Professor and was arguing there, we
:07:12. > :07:18.want to be more like Germany, so we are going to charge you capital
:07:18. > :07:25.gains tax on any increase in the value of your house. The Government
:07:25. > :07:28.makes many decisions which rigged markets. Energy, giving incentives
:07:28. > :07:33.to businesses to relocate... This is another vehicle by which you can
:07:33. > :07:38.stimulate economic growth in the building of more houses. That is a
:07:38. > :07:43.good thing. The equity loans scheme was that. What I am saying is that
:07:43. > :07:48.the refusal to charge tax on capital gains on housing, can you imagine
:07:48. > :07:53.when he were a politician, if you were even whispered such a thing,
:07:53. > :07:58.you can pretty much guarantee at a UK level or at a Scottish level you
:07:58. > :08:03.would lose the election. A big outcry. Tough decisions have two be
:08:03. > :08:08.made. We are not holding enough social housing in Scotland. I think
:08:08. > :08:13.there is a place for measures which create demand for private housing,
:08:13. > :08:18.getting that economic turnover moving and 4... But did you think
:08:18. > :08:21.there is an argument for this eco-restructuring, which the
:08:21. > :08:25.professor was arguing? Actually, I don't, but I would have to look into
:08:26. > :08:31.it more fully. As long as we do not forget the mistakes of the past
:08:31. > :08:35.around the easy access to mortgages which we had, if you prove you are
:08:35. > :08:40.earning that much you can get seven times... It will be a lot easier
:08:40. > :08:45.come January! There are still mechanisms around people's ability
:08:45. > :08:51.to pay it back. It will not be as bad. It is not just the big issue of
:08:51. > :08:55.restructuring the housing market. Some economists now are saying, OK,
:08:55. > :09:00.we have a little economic growth but it is the wrong kind. The danger we
:09:00. > :09:04.have, it is we need an economy which rebalances towards making things and
:09:04. > :09:08.particularly exporting them. What we are going to get is an economy which
:09:08. > :09:12.went again consumers will spend more because the values of their houses
:09:12. > :09:17.have gone up and they feel richer, they go and spend things in the shop
:09:17. > :09:20.and that is not what we need. we need a rebalancing all we need to
:09:21. > :09:24.dig about restructuring. If we have jobs that are not where the houses
:09:24. > :09:29.are, not having affordable housing or having your assets tied up in a
:09:29. > :09:35.fairly liquid asset being you are going to make the Labour market less
:09:35. > :09:38.taxable and that in itself will keep dampening... But that is becoming a
:09:38. > :09:42.big room, isn't it? In a very odd way, this financial crisis, which
:09:43. > :09:47.you might think would have affected London more, is accelerating the gap
:09:47. > :09:52.between London and the rest of the UK. House prices fell here, as we
:09:52. > :09:58.heard, have been falling here. They went up 13% in London over the last
:09:58. > :10:01.year. That makes it ever more difficult for people from Scotland
:10:01. > :10:11.or the regions of England to think about moving there. Scotland is a
:10:11. > :10:17.
:10:18. > :10:22.more small place. We know we have a shortage of social housing. We need
:10:22. > :10:25.a real hope for some of those young kids who need into housing but we
:10:25. > :10:30.also need to provide access to mortgages in a stable fashion that
:10:30. > :10:35.allows people to get on the ladder. It creates the economic multiplier.
:10:35. > :10:44.It is not just the London effect. It is the fat that the South East of
:10:44. > :10:49.England XL rate this pulling away. -- the fact. London, the citystate,
:10:49. > :10:59.we are benefiting from some of the effects. We ignore that at art
:10:59. > :11:04.pleasure -- at our peril. The private rented sector comes in.
:11:04. > :11:09.There are issues about how to be make that an attractive option, not
:11:09. > :11:13.a second-best option to home ownership? Who are Labour for
:11:13. > :11:21.independence, a genuine movement of Labour activists who vote yes macro
:11:21. > :11:27.next year and one two reviews -- want to persuade others to do so
:11:27. > :11:33.next year? A series of articles suggest the group is not what it
:11:33. > :11:38.seems. It was this article on the right of centre website Think
:11:38. > :11:44.Scotland which started the furore. The Scotland on Sunday columnist
:11:44. > :11:50.identifies several of the campaign is in the picture as SNP activists,
:11:50. > :11:55.including the SNP leader on Ayrshire council. In the end of the piece, he
:11:55. > :12:00.accuses Labour for Independence of being a sham, a tawdry little con in
:12:00. > :12:04.which some of the party's most bitter rivals are complicit. Since
:12:04. > :12:08.then, the campaign director of Better Together has tweeted this
:12:08. > :12:18.picture, identifying three of the four men in it as SNP Midlothian
:12:18. > :12:22.
:12:23. > :12:28.recall that we accompanied the leader of Labour For Independence,
:12:28. > :12:33.Allan Grogan, two lusty's row independence rally in Edinburgh --
:12:33. > :12:40.to last year's pro independence rally.
:12:40. > :12:45.Are you an SNP double agent, a Labour person spying on the SNP?
:12:45. > :12:49.number of times I have heard this SNP thing... I am a Labour Party
:12:49. > :12:54.member and I have supported Labour all my life. I fundamentally
:12:54. > :12:57.disagree with the policy of the Better Together campaign. I believe
:12:57. > :13:01.that Scotland will be better as an independent Scotland. He hasn't
:13:02. > :13:07.denied that the people in the pictures are SNP members, he says
:13:07. > :13:11.Labour For Independence campaigns with other Yes Scotland supporters.
:13:11. > :13:16.They have about 100 people signed up of him around half are Labour Party
:13:16. > :13:25.members. Those are pretty small numbers but why shouldn't Labour For
:13:25. > :13:28.Independence exist. A recent poll suggests that around 13% of Labour
:13:28. > :13:33.voters plan to vote Yes. The question is whether this is more
:13:33. > :13:43.than a fringe group whose numbers have been swelled by SNP members in
:13:43. > :13:43.
:13:43. > :13:47.an attempt to exaggerate its who set up Labour For Independence
:13:47. > :13:52.and Michael Kelly, long-standing Labour politician and activist joins
:13:52. > :13:59.me in the studio. Allan Grogan, how long have you been a member of the
:13:59. > :14:05.Labour Party? From when I was about 18 or 19 years of age. Until I left
:14:05. > :14:09.the country in 2007 to work abroad. I then returned in 2010 and rejoined
:14:09. > :14:16.about a week later and have been a member since then as well. So you
:14:16. > :14:23.have been a member since 2010 which is not really quite... Since 2003, a
:14:23. > :14:28.member. Have you had time to check how many Labour Party members you
:14:29. > :14:33.actually have in your organisation? Our membership is still being
:14:33. > :14:37.accounted for after a successful policy conference and some publicity
:14:37. > :14:43.this week and it has been growing. We estimated to be about 40% of
:14:43. > :14:53.Labour party members to be members of Labour For Independence. 40% of
:14:53. > :14:56.
:14:56. > :15:02.your membership? How many members do you have? We have about 8200 -- 80 -
:15:02. > :15:06.100. So that is about 30 members of the Labour Party? We have made no
:15:06. > :15:12.bones about the fact we are a growing party. We have been growing
:15:12. > :15:15.as a small organisation... We make no bones about that. Even according
:15:15. > :15:19.to your own account, a majority of members are not members of the
:15:19. > :15:25.Labour Party, why do you try to pass yourself off as a Labour Party
:15:25. > :15:29.organisation? We with -- we work within the Labour Party and within
:15:29. > :15:32.Yes Scotland, we do not to pass of that anything. What has been spoken
:15:32. > :15:39.about this weekend or this week, lots of talk of about Labour Party
:15:39. > :15:48.membership. In the last Scottish elections, 600,000 people voted for
:15:48. > :15:56.Labour soap you are talking about a 2% vote of the lady leaderships, of
:15:56. > :16:03.Labour leaderships. Michael Kelly, you are an ex-former politician.
:16:03. > :16:08.Yes, former statesman columnist. It will be prosecuted under the trades
:16:08. > :16:11.description act by the very figures that Allan Grogan has given us
:16:11. > :16:16.tonight, this is not Labour For Independence, this is disgruntled
:16:16. > :16:20.people with Labour sympathies voting for independence so he should change
:16:20. > :16:23.the title immediately. It is certainly not working within the
:16:23. > :16:32.Labour Party as he claims, but is working against Labour Party
:16:32. > :16:36.policies. What should the Labour Party do about it? Ignore it. We are
:16:36. > :16:42.talking about 80 people here. It is astonishing that an organisation
:16:42. > :16:46.that small cannot give us a precise figure. Surely it should be 89, 92
:16:46. > :16:51.or whatever. There is a vagueness about it. The fact these photographs
:16:52. > :17:01.that are authenticated here show SNP members and suggest this is
:17:01. > :17:07.something dreamt up by Allan Grogan, possibly. But it is fronting and
:17:07. > :17:10.actively helped, not by Labour but by the SNP. Allan Grogan, what do
:17:10. > :17:16.you say about the pictures? I take the points you have made that
:17:16. > :17:19.obviously if you go on a Yes campaign demonstration, other people
:17:19. > :17:29.who are not part of your organisation might jolly around with
:17:29. > :17:32.you. But having SNP councillors enthusiastically hosting Labour
:17:32. > :17:36.Party banners may say they are sympathetic. The picture you have
:17:36. > :17:44.shown, we have never put that on our website or promoted it on our
:17:44. > :17:48.Facebook page. We work with yes Scotland and we make no bones about
:17:48. > :17:53.working with other organisations and one of those is working alongside
:17:53. > :17:55.the SNP and for Michael to say that it is not a labour movement at all
:17:55. > :18:05.is ridiculous. There seems to be an obsession about Labour members
:18:05. > :18:06.
:18:06. > :18:08.when, as I said, a small minority and what is actually the case...
:18:08. > :18:14.uses Labour Party colours and typeface on his banners but is
:18:14. > :18:20.nothing to do so this is a deception. What about the broader
:18:20. > :18:22.issue, Michael Kelly? A 30% of Labour voters said they would vote
:18:22. > :18:27.for independence, is Allan Grogan on to something irrespective of whether
:18:27. > :18:32.he is right about this organisation, is he on for something, that the Yes
:18:32. > :18:36.campaign should be targeting Labour Party members and supporters?
:18:36. > :18:39.Because they might find fertile ground. I think the SNP have to
:18:39. > :18:46.target Labour voters because they simply weren't willing without
:18:46. > :18:54.them. To the argument, well some people who vote Labour vote for
:18:54. > :18:58.independence? Clearly they will. If the package we are being offered
:18:58. > :19:02.involves abolishing the Queen, many left-wing voters would vote for that
:19:02. > :19:05.package but that would be completely counterbalanced by the number of
:19:05. > :19:13.people who voted SNP in the Holyrood elections, and would vote against
:19:13. > :19:17.independence. He might be onto something then? Now, it is a
:19:18. > :19:21.desperate ploy to sustain a staggeringly bad campaign. As a
:19:21. > :19:26.matter of curiosity, Allan Grogan, are there any specifically Labour
:19:26. > :19:31.policies that he would like to see adopted by the Yes campaign or put
:19:31. > :19:34.forward in an independent Scotland? We believe the best thing for the
:19:34. > :19:38.Labour Party as well as the people Scotland would be independence
:19:38. > :19:41.because it would see us moving away from the ties of Westminster and
:19:41. > :19:50.returning to what a real Labour Party would be based on the funding
:19:50. > :19:54.principles. So you cannot cite any specific Labour Party policies you
:19:54. > :19:59.prefer to SNP policies? We talked about the bedroom tax, NATO and have
:19:59. > :20:04.the SNP government should be using the remaining budget from last year
:20:04. > :20:10.to help impact on that without waiting until there is a referendum.
:20:10. > :20:15.But I want to make a point on something Michael said... You still
:20:15. > :20:17.have not cited any Labour policies you prefer to SNP ones. The funding
:20:18. > :20:26.principles of Labour Party policy are true, universal health care,
:20:26. > :20:35.free education, but to pick up on a point Michael made, he continually
:20:35. > :20:40.says the SNP and this is the tribalism of Scottish politics, the
:20:40. > :20:45.leader... We are a cross-party movement and we are proud to be...
:20:45. > :20:52.Stillness of -- mystified by these policies. A quick look at the front
:20:52. > :21:02.pages. The Scotsman, a picture of these two dead in chemical
:21:02. > :21:03.
:21:03. > :21:13.incident, and the Edinburgh hotel thing in the Daily Mail. We will be
:21:13. > :21:19.
:21:19. > :21:23.rain in the north and heat in the south-east, things will be a bit
:21:23. > :21:26.more straightforward tomorrow, looks like there will be sunny spells and
:21:26. > :21:30.scattered showers. The shower perhaps thundery in the central and
:21:30. > :21:34.eastern areas first thing in the morning, but the afternoon it will
:21:34. > :21:37.be a better day in Northern Ireland and Scotland compared to today. A
:21:37. > :21:44.few showers, yes, but in between, some lovely, sunny spells and it
:21:44. > :21:48.will feel pleasant. Some areas in the east staying dry. 19 - 22
:21:48. > :21:53.Celsius. A few showers across northern England but some decent
:21:53. > :21:56.breaks in the cloud and a pleasant feel. A bit fresher than today and
:21:56. > :22:06.that might be welcome news. Still be cute into East Anglia and humidity
:22:06. > :22:08.
:22:08. > :22:13.with a few showers to come -- still be humid into East Anglia. It will
:22:13. > :22:19.feel a bit more pleasant in Wales. Towards the weekend, the risk of
:22:19. > :22:22.showers increases and the showers chiefly to the west, it has to be
:22:22. > :22:26.said, London may well stay dry with more sunshine around on Saturday
:22:26. > :22:35.than Friday am a humid feel with sharper showers the further west you