:00:00. > :00:13.this. An audit of all contracts is ongoing.
:00:14. > :00:19.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, it has been a week dominated by
:00:20. > :00:23.arguments on how the economy might look in 50 years, but are we missing
:00:24. > :00:28.the fact that it is changing right now, and very much for the better?
:00:29. > :00:31.Could a strong recovery change the independence debate, and which side
:00:32. > :00:38.stands to gain? Also tonight: A new look for the
:00:39. > :00:40.banks of the Clyde. The least on urban planner thinks we are missing
:00:41. > :00:46.a trick. Good evening. Public ring this year
:00:47. > :00:49.looks to be less than was forecast at the time of the budget in March,
:00:50. > :00:55.and the proceeds of stamp duty, the tax on buying houses, are soaring.
:00:56. > :01:01.The OECD now expects the economy to grow by almost 2.5% last year, much
:01:02. > :01:04.more than most European economies. So are the good times back, and do
:01:05. > :01:10.we need to rethink the independence debate?
:01:11. > :01:18.Politicians love to promise jam tomorrow. If they can give us jam
:01:19. > :01:21.today as well, so much the better. So when the think tank the Institute
:01:22. > :01:25.for Fiscal Studies published its report this week, both sides in the
:01:26. > :01:33.independence debate looked for evidence to back their beliefs. And
:01:34. > :01:38.of course, the issue of the report came up at Holyrood today. It
:01:39. > :01:43.suggests that the United Kingdom will be in deficit for every one of
:01:44. > :01:50.the next 50 years. And that indicates that UK Governments will
:01:51. > :01:52.have to raise taxation or reduce expenditure to reach that
:01:53. > :01:57.sustainable position, that is what the model tells you. If the First
:01:58. > :02:02.Minister is to be believed, we won't just be a new country after
:02:03. > :02:09.independence. He will invent a new arithmetic. All alone as the First
:02:10. > :02:19.Minister, sticking his fingers in his years with an economic plan with
:02:20. > :02:22.more holes in it than a string vest. Now it seems that some underlying
:02:23. > :02:28.assumptions about what the future will be like are already out of
:02:29. > :02:32.date. The Office for National Statistics says the UK Government's
:02:33. > :02:38.tax take is going up, so borrowing is going down, assign perhaps that
:02:39. > :02:42.the recovery is under way, and there is more evidence from the business
:02:43. > :02:46.organisation the CBI. It says order books are looking the best they have
:02:47. > :02:52.in nearly 20 years, with good results from exporters and output
:02:53. > :02:57.growing strongly, too. The deficit has come down by a third already in
:02:58. > :03:02.this Parliament. But I think these figures are a reminder that it is
:03:03. > :03:08.not just going to be something that happens automatically as the economy
:03:09. > :03:16.grows. We're going to have to continue to make difficult policy
:03:17. > :03:19.choices to get our deficit down. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George
:03:20. > :03:23.Osborne, delivers his Autumn statement in two weeks, and it looks
:03:24. > :03:29.as though he may have more money to play with than anyone could have
:03:30. > :03:37.predicted. But what will he be willing to loosen in terms of the
:03:38. > :03:42.new sub austerities? If we start feeling flush again, perhaps we will
:03:43. > :03:48.be willing to take a punt on an unknown future. The trouble is, what
:03:49. > :03:57.voters really want is to have our cake and eat it. Even the wiliest of
:03:58. > :04:04.politicians can't deliver that. I am joined now from Edinburgh by
:04:05. > :04:11.George Carrigan, and from Manchester by John McLaren. Is this the new big
:04:12. > :04:14.thing? After all the years of recession, there are some pretty
:04:15. > :04:19.good signs that they could be quite a strong recovery in Britain. There
:04:20. > :04:23.are a number of good signs, and there have been to a three quarters
:04:24. > :04:30.of good growth, but that happened in the last two of three years. I think
:04:31. > :04:37.probably the underlying sign from retail sales and service are better.
:04:38. > :04:41.What is still puzzling is why this growth is coming about where it is
:04:42. > :04:45.coming from. Nobody particularly predicted it at the beginning of
:04:46. > :04:49.this year and everybody has always said it should be investment in
:04:50. > :04:53.exports that will lead the charge back. Business investment is still
:04:54. > :04:58.at its lowest point since the recession, and exports are not doing
:04:59. > :05:05.anything dramatic either. But from the point of view of most people,
:05:06. > :05:07.the economists might think it is an unbalanced recovery, but an
:05:08. > :05:14.unbalanced recovery is better than no recovery? It is better than no
:05:15. > :05:18.recovery if it comes to fruition. But the problem is, is this just
:05:19. > :05:21.another false recovery, and people get their hopes up and actually some
:05:22. > :05:30.of the more fundamental things that still have to be done will be put
:05:31. > :05:35.off. That is the worry. Consuming and construction has boosted the
:05:36. > :05:40.figures a lot, and that is not necessarily where it should come
:05:41. > :05:46.from. It is difficult to see what has changed in the fundamentals. And
:05:47. > :05:52.what is your take on this? I agree with John. I don't think anything is
:05:53. > :05:57.fixed in the economy. Next year we are on course to have them against
:05:58. > :06:05.trade deficit of any industrial nation. George Osborne has cooked up
:06:06. > :06:12.a mini housing boom, that is why he has got more stamp duty money. So we
:06:13. > :06:18.could be back to the good old days of an unsustainable boom. He has
:06:19. > :06:24.managed to get a bit more money coming through the Treasury doors,
:06:25. > :06:32.and he still managed to borrow more in three years than Gordon Brown's
:06:33. > :06:39.Labour did in 13 years. If people start to feel better off, and there
:06:40. > :06:44.are signs that they are feeling that the end might be in sight, how does
:06:45. > :06:51.that affect the political debate that is going on up here? We
:06:52. > :06:56.spending time debating and ISS report which looks like it was out
:06:57. > :07:03.of date before it even left the press stop all we are doing is going
:07:04. > :07:11.back to a position maybe 18 months ago. Things got worse. They weren't
:07:12. > :07:16.looking good and then they got worse, and now they have got better.
:07:17. > :07:20.So it is not a huge change in what is happening. But in terms of who is
:07:21. > :07:27.going to benefit, that is difficult to say. Even down south, it is
:07:28. > :07:34.difficult to say whether Labour or the Tories would benefit from it.
:07:35. > :07:40.People could concentrate on GDP or living standards, which are still
:07:41. > :07:44.expected to decline. Bringing it back up to Scotland, it is very
:07:45. > :07:48.difficult to say at the minute whether a slight rebooting of the
:07:49. > :07:56.economy will make people more confident of voting yes, or whether
:07:57. > :08:03.we are still in an overall scenario that looks pretty doom laden and
:08:04. > :08:11.they would be swayed away from it. George Kerevan, should we see quite
:08:12. > :08:13.strong economic growth, or at least sufficient for the Coalition
:08:14. > :08:17.Government to present it as strong economic growth, how do you think
:08:18. > :08:31.that that affects the independence debate? There are lots of chess
:08:32. > :08:34.pieces on the board. There is some kind of history of correlation
:08:35. > :08:40.between economic confidence and being willing to support
:08:41. > :08:43.independence. Given the crisis we have had in the economy for five
:08:44. > :08:50.years, I don't have that kind of confidence will return enough by
:08:51. > :08:55.next September to change things. On the other hand, if the economy
:08:56. > :09:01.improves enough to make it likely that Osborne and Cameron might win
:09:02. > :09:06.the 2015 election, that may make a lot of Scots think, why stick with
:09:07. > :09:12.the union? Both of those forces are at work.
:09:13. > :09:16.John, the other side of this, people don't feel like living standards are
:09:17. > :09:22.rising, and that is what Labour are trying to target.
:09:23. > :09:28.Yes, and they are expected to keep falling for another couple of years.
:09:29. > :09:33.There are two crises here. One is the crisis that happened in 2007.
:09:34. > :09:39.But there was an underlying traces before that, slow growth, bad
:09:40. > :09:42.growth, financial services and construction, and that underlying
:09:43. > :09:46.lack of dynamism in the world economy, as well as in the UK and
:09:47. > :09:52.Scottish economy, that has still to be addressed. What growth rates are
:09:53. > :10:02.looking at in the future? Watch the Bulls expectations be? -- what
:10:03. > :10:06.should people's expectations be? We have to leave it there. Thank you
:10:07. > :10:12.both very much. For more than 30 years Glasgow has
:10:13. > :10:15.worked at rebuilding the river bank. The building we are
:10:16. > :10:21.broadcasting from is evidence of that. But some people claim that the
:10:22. > :10:27.process has been poorly thought out. A lack of cafes, restaurants, to his
:10:28. > :10:34.visitors. The city council say the job is unfinished.
:10:35. > :10:39.With 800 years of history, Glasgow today takes a look at tomorrow, as
:10:40. > :10:42.the corporation puts on an exhibition in Kelvin Hall,
:10:43. > :10:49.foreshadowing the proposed new inner core of the city.
:10:50. > :10:52.Back in the late 1940s there was a plan to reshape Glasgow bio-blitz
:10:53. > :10:59.rating and starting again. Thankfully, it did not happen. -- I
:11:00. > :11:05.obliterate in it. But that is not to say that there have not been major
:11:06. > :11:08.changes in the city. Since the 1980s, critics have said that the
:11:09. > :11:14.city has not exploited one of its biggest assets. That is here, on the
:11:15. > :11:18.Clyde. To be fair, there has been plenty of development. Behind me is
:11:19. > :11:25.the exhibition centre and the new hydro. Behind the camera man, the
:11:26. > :11:32.science Museum, and were I work, at the BBC. But some believe that these
:11:33. > :11:35.buildings are all disjointed and a lack of cafes, walkways, and bars,
:11:36. > :11:42.does not make the Clyde and attractive place to visit.
:11:43. > :11:48.It is like landing from an aeroplane. The BBC here, the
:11:49. > :11:55.trans-museum there, but the connections, the walking, that is
:11:56. > :11:59.what has been forgotten. The river is an idea has been kept in mind,
:12:00. > :12:04.but the actual riverfront, for normal people to go to, that has
:12:05. > :12:09.been forgotten. City leaders do not agree with the
:12:10. > :12:16.criticism. They say that given the city's industrial heritage, the
:12:17. > :12:21.Riverfront has come a long way. It is an ongoing process. I cannot
:12:22. > :12:24.stress enough that the city has been moving forward in employment,
:12:25. > :12:29.strategy, all the things we are now looking at in the city centre.
:12:30. > :12:34.Throughout a recession. Certainly, I believe that the Camelot pavilions
:12:35. > :12:41.will come up again. A developer is looking at that. -- it has planning
:12:42. > :12:47.permission in principle. Brroomielaw pavillions. We will transform three
:12:48. > :12:53.kilometres of a lovely walk and cycle path in the West End.
:12:54. > :12:58.The main complaints are around a lack of joined up thinking and
:12:59. > :13:03.political leadership. It is a lack of strong vision, a lack of focus,
:13:04. > :13:09.and leadership. Somebody has to take charge. Say that, in two years, we
:13:10. > :13:16.will have a pleasant river, and a walk. It is not a lot of money but
:13:17. > :13:19.it is important. The architectural community agreed
:13:20. > :13:22.that the city has come a long way, but still has a long way to go to
:13:23. > :13:28.exploit one of its biggest assets, the waterfront. Lots of
:13:29. > :13:35.international cities use thereof is more imaginatively than Glasgow. --
:13:36. > :13:40.use their rivers. Beautiful plaza is, opening out onto the river, bars
:13:41. > :13:45.and restaurants, cafes, that would be ideal. Even though we are a
:13:46. > :13:48.northern European city and on occasion it is called, for much of
:13:49. > :13:55.the year that could be a tremendous amenity.
:13:56. > :13:59.It is not just Glasgow that has had to rethink its relationship with the
:14:00. > :14:04.Clyde. There are seven other local authorities along its length.
:14:05. > :14:08.Planners say that it really is a long-term project. As much as 40
:14:09. > :14:13.years in some cases, given the scale of land that has still to be
:14:14. > :14:19.developed. For many people living along its banks, they have almost
:14:20. > :14:24.forgotten the river is there. Some people are just seeing the river for
:14:25. > :14:27.the first time. Buildings that blocked their views have now been
:14:28. > :14:31.taken away and the areas are more open to the river. The opportunity
:14:32. > :14:37.now exists to encourage people to come down and use those kind of
:14:38. > :14:43.areas. Glasgow leaders say that it is a work in progress and they have
:14:44. > :14:47.big plans for the Riverfront. But the end of the present developments,
:14:48. > :15:01.are the future developments that we have got on the plants. -- planned.
:15:02. > :15:04.Jobs, office space, and I want to see 23,000 or thereabouts new houses
:15:05. > :15:14.down by the river. Is that not appropriate? Glasgow City Council
:15:15. > :15:21.will have to get a move on. If not, they could lose on the work made so
:15:22. > :15:27.far by not capitalising. Lots of cities try to hold onto the young
:15:28. > :15:31.creative people. Universities, local Scottish people, foreign students,
:15:32. > :15:37.young, dynamic, creative people. They have the choice to live
:15:38. > :15:40.anywhere. What they choose is a high quality of life, they want to live
:15:41. > :15:47.in a city they can enjoy walking around. If you don't offer this they
:15:48. > :15:51.will go away. Clearly the River Clyde is not the river it once was.
:15:52. > :16:00.They stopped dredging it many years ago. The challenge for the City
:16:01. > :16:04.Council is to make the river into a new 21st-century attraction, not
:16:05. > :16:06.based around heavy industry but commerce and entertainment. Critics
:16:07. > :16:09.say they still have some way still to go.
:16:10. > :16:38.Tomorrow's front pages: that is all have time for. We will
:16:39. > :16:40.be back next week. Night.