:00:00. > :00:00.it had an open case an EMF and was monitoring the situation. We invited
:00:00. > :00:00.the Lord unto the programme to respond. Guess what estimate he
:00:00. > :00:23.declined. Guess what? He declined. Good
:00:24. > :00:30.evening. With the match across the countryside be brought to a halt or
:00:31. > :00:41.is it more attacking an green commitment? What is the future for
:00:42. > :00:45.Grangemouth? The basic message from the British government today was
:00:46. > :00:47.pretty simple. If you build a wind farm offshore, you'll get more
:00:48. > :00:51.subsidy. If you build one onshore, you'll get less. Cynics suggest the
:00:52. > :00:53.new policy appeals to some Tory backbenchers in England and some
:00:54. > :00:57.campaigners in the Highlands who oppose wind turbines. We'll discuss
:00:58. > :01:04.whether there's more to it in a moment.
:01:05. > :01:12.Wind farms at the energy equivalent of Marmite. You either love them or
:01:13. > :01:18.hate them but your thoughts, for the past ten years the Government at
:01:19. > :01:22.Westminster and Edinburgh have pushed this source of renewable
:01:23. > :01:28.energy. This wind turbine is for educational purposes at the science
:01:29. > :01:32.centre before it is smaller than those you see an a wind farm put up
:01:33. > :01:37.you get a pretty good idea of how it works. The Government signalled a
:01:38. > :01:44.shift away from wind farms built on land to offshore. At the Treasury,
:01:45. > :01:52.there was a gear change. It is about getting the best value for money as
:01:53. > :02:00.well as making sure offshore has a huge potential to meeting our energy
:02:01. > :02:06.needs and that it has the support. The price is changing. That is the
:02:07. > :02:17.amount of money paid for each megawatt sold. From 2015, the place
:02:18. > :02:25.for onshore wind power will be cut. The offshore wind energy, it will
:02:26. > :02:33.rise. And offshore wind project was scrapped recently near Bristol. If I
:02:34. > :02:39.had been in the same position, I would have come up with something
:02:40. > :02:44.similar. On shore wind is now a mature technology. It has come down
:02:45. > :02:52.in cost. If we were comparing an a fair basis, C natural gas or call
:02:53. > :02:59.with carbon storage, onshore wind is at about the same price as nuclear.
:03:00. > :03:08.But this mean for the industry in Scotland? Hopefully it means more
:03:09. > :03:12.offshore development in Scotland and it takes as forward to the day and
:03:13. > :03:20.renewables compete on cost with other forms of energy. The Scottish
:03:21. > :03:27.government have concerns too. The UK government has ignored its own
:03:28. > :03:32.research which painted out to the islands to have their own specific
:03:33. > :03:38.bespoke measurable top we are concerned with developers and the
:03:39. > :03:41.council leaders in the islands who are telling us the future of
:03:42. > :03:49.renewables in the islands may be placed in jeopardy. Renewable energy
:03:50. > :03:54.makes up just under 10% of electricity output in the UK. It is
:03:55. > :04:00.much higher in Scotland, at 27%. In the next seven years, the UK target
:04:01. > :04:08.will rise to the tipster. In Scotland, a challenging 100%. We are
:04:09. > :04:17.about halfway to where the target at have renewable output by 2020. The
:04:18. > :04:22.trouble with that is about half of that output we have had for 50 years
:04:23. > :04:26.in terms of Hydro put up all of the things we have seen with wind and
:04:27. > :04:32.are now has basically doubled the old renewables we had forever. We
:04:33. > :04:36.now have to have doubled the amount of all the renewables which we
:04:37. > :04:42.currently have got within seven years. The Scottish government said
:04:43. > :04:46.a noble energy development should continue in as many areas as
:04:47. > :04:51.possible providing project are suitably located was that they
:04:52. > :04:55.insist there will be no new onshore wind turbines in special scenic
:04:56. > :04:58.areas. I'm joined now from Edinburgh by
:04:59. > :05:01.Neil Stuart, Chief Executive of Scottish Renewables, the industry
:05:02. > :05:11.body. And in Oxford, the climate and energy expert Chris Goodall. You had
:05:12. > :05:14.a bit more time to digest this. What are the implications for onshore
:05:15. > :05:22.wind which is pretty enormous in Scotland? What this announcement is
:05:23. > :05:29.is a challenge for the onshore and offshore industries. The Government
:05:30. > :05:40.has said really it will only support the industry if it can deliver more
:05:41. > :05:46.reductions in price. When we hear that onshore is becoming more
:05:47. > :05:51.commercially viable, but a lot of people watching this will say is we
:05:52. > :05:54.are paying for this through our electricity bills. It was
:05:55. > :06:01.commercially viable, why is it that even the lower stripe place today
:06:02. > :06:06.for onshore wind developments is something like twice the wholesale
:06:07. > :06:15.price of electricity generated by gas or coal? But nobody is saying is
:06:16. > :06:22.that onshore wind can compete with gas or coal alone on cost was up
:06:23. > :06:31.today, we are seeing the cost will come down over this decade.
:06:32. > :06:41.Forecasts for gas generation will go up. What we are seeing is that
:06:42. > :06:48.onshore wind will become competitive. It is already cheaper
:06:49. > :07:02.than the cost agreed for nuclear power. But about offshore Chris Mac
:07:03. > :07:07.-- offshore wind farms? Is there any prospect of that becoming
:07:08. > :07:13.commercially viable? It is a bigger challenge. Offshore wind has many
:07:14. > :07:19.advantages over other renewables. It is an early technology. It is about
:07:20. > :07:32.30 years to find onshore wind in development. The ambition for all
:07:33. > :07:44.the technologies is to develop. But this announcement does is slow down
:07:45. > :07:51.the rate at which government kept subsidy for onshore wind. Chris
:07:52. > :07:56.Goodall, you have a different take on this. You think hidden in this
:07:57. > :08:04.the Government is backtracking on its commitment to offshore wind Mr
:08:05. > :08:08.Mark? And are laying this is the sense in the UK government mind that
:08:09. > :08:11.offshore wind is very expensive and the progress we were promised ten
:08:12. > :08:17.years ago has not happened. As a result, they are beginning to have
:08:18. > :08:20.nerves about it. There is a sense in the nonsense today that offshore
:08:21. > :08:26.wind is a disappointment and may need a bit more subsidy. The changes
:08:27. > :08:35.are tiny and should not be exaggerated. One interesting thing
:08:36. > :08:40.is that we always hear about offshore wind as the industry of the
:08:41. > :08:50.future. That is not really anything in Scotland? That is a large
:08:51. > :08:54.offshore wind industry in England which we hear nothing about.
:08:55. > :09:00.Somehow, we have been given the impression the opposite is the case.
:09:01. > :09:06.In Scottish terms, it is an industry of the future. We have a whole
:09:07. > :09:12.series of firsts in terms of the development of the technology. Why
:09:13. > :09:19.is it that is a large operating industry in England and the art,
:09:20. > :09:31.nothing in Scotland. -- and as yet, nothing in Scotland? We have deeper
:09:32. > :09:35.waters and stronger tides. The technology is not ready. But
:09:36. > :09:40.Scotland does have is a key role in the development of the technology in
:09:41. > :09:49.developing larger turbines. We will have the two largest turbines
:09:50. > :09:57.anywhere in the world this time next year. We will be advising
:09:58. > :10:13.governments all over the world on this. It will be much more
:10:14. > :10:21.appropriate for deploying around our coastline and it will be more
:10:22. > :10:26.productive. From an economic point of view, it is also where Scotland
:10:27. > :10:36.has the experience of working offshore. That skill and accidents
:10:37. > :10:42.will come into its own, not just in the UK but around the world. Chris
:10:43. > :10:48.Goodall, I saw you nodding there. It may be that Scotland has an
:10:49. > :10:56.advantage with larger turbines. England does seem to have an
:10:57. > :11:05.established leader in this industry. The conditions are much easier in
:11:06. > :11:10.the Thames estuary. The wind speeds are lower and the wave heights are
:11:11. > :11:14.lower. It is closer to the shore and most importantly, it is not very
:11:15. > :11:26.deep. Around Scotland, you might -- you have a situation which is much
:11:27. > :11:31.more difficult. There are incredible to difficult challenges. We have not
:11:32. > :11:35.seen evidence of the cost reductions which have been promised over the
:11:36. > :11:40.last decade. That worries me. It is not just offshore but at Agu Blake.
:11:41. > :11:46.Onshore wind turbine. When you give your predictions earlier, they
:11:47. > :11:52.mainly relied on projections that the price of gas would go up and not
:11:53. > :12:11.that they place of onshore would go down. Subsidies to onshore wind have
:12:12. > :12:17.been cut by 10%. The announcement today probably equals another cat in
:12:18. > :12:22.subsidy. The big challenge at this announcement is that we are unlikely
:12:23. > :12:29.to see the volume of offshore wind turbines that we were expecting. We
:12:30. > :12:35.got the industry would be much larger before. We expected the cost
:12:36. > :12:39.reductions to be larger and quicker. I do not think any body is saying
:12:40. > :12:47.there have not been cost reductions. Quite simply, if the
:12:48. > :12:54.industry does not get the cost per megawatt hour down, we will not have
:12:55. > :13:04.an offshore industry but up that is the challenge we face. The big
:13:05. > :13:08.picture behind all of this is if you are an investor at the moment,
:13:09. > :13:14.considering investing in renewable energy of any kind, do you really
:13:15. > :13:18.have any certainty given that we change the prices and it is still
:13:19. > :13:24.not clear whether the new nuclear stations will be built M a lotta
:13:25. > :13:32.people must be thinking I am not prepared to my money into this.
:13:33. > :13:38.Yes, right across the board, there is a sense of nervousness.
:13:39. > :13:42.Government doesn't seem to know what to do and every announcement says
:13:43. > :13:46.something different from the last. This isn't much different. The
:13:47. > :13:51.proposals introduced today aren't much different from the ones they
:13:52. > :13:54.were talking about in the middle of the year. Nevertheless, they are
:13:55. > :14:03.rolling back all the targets. If I were Minister, I would think this
:14:04. > :14:07.was the first of many changes. I assume they're feeling is shared in
:14:08. > :14:13.the industry? Presumably the industry would like to know what the
:14:14. > :14:19.regime is going to be. I have to disagree with Chris. Despite all the
:14:20. > :14:24.political Macca nations in Westminster, audit of green levies,
:14:25. > :14:30.never has the governor said it will come away from its target. --
:14:31. > :14:34.machinations. The industry knows the off on the table in terms of the
:14:35. > :14:37.contracts available. We know what we have to do in terms of producing
:14:38. > :14:46.energy and the cost of producing energy. There have been exemptions
:14:47. > :14:53.for things like gas stations. That must affect people in your
:14:54. > :14:58.industry. Yes, but the target has always been for the UK to achieve
:14:59. > :15:07.50% of its energy from renewables from 2020. We're going to need more
:15:08. > :15:11.gas fire power stations. That is a fact. It is not a threat to
:15:12. > :15:15.renewables. We have to leave it there. Thank you both very much.
:15:16. > :15:18.Now, back in October it looked like the petrochemical plant at
:15:19. > :15:22.Grangemouth would close, at the cost of hundreds of jobs. Two months on,
:15:23. > :15:25.the future of the site could now be secure for at least a couple of
:15:26. > :15:29.decades. Ineos, who run the plant, want Grangemouth to be the first
:15:30. > :15:32.site in the UK to import shale gas from America as its chemical
:15:33. > :15:36.feedstock, cutting costs and getting the plant back up and running at a
:15:37. > :15:39.profit. The trade union Unite has misgivings about other parts of the
:15:40. > :15:42.company's survival plan. But as Ineos gears up to import cheap gas
:15:43. > :15:52.into Scotland, it showed journalists how it's already doing that in
:15:53. > :15:57.Norway. Catriona Renton was there. Here in the south of Norway, they
:15:58. > :16:01.are putting in place the infrastructure to buy in shale gas
:16:02. > :16:05.from the United States. The reason? Even after shipping, it's much
:16:06. > :16:10.cheaper. Less than half the price of the gas they are currently buying
:16:11. > :16:16.from the North Sea. We import US shale gas to secure the future of
:16:17. > :16:23.this site. It will make sure the site has a long life. Once up and
:16:24. > :16:28.running, this tank will store 17,000 tonnes of liquefied gas, which will
:16:29. > :16:32.be used to make plastics just like the petrochemical plant at
:16:33. > :16:37.Grangemouth. Both sites are run by the same company, INEOS. But this
:16:38. > :16:42.site is profitable and its owners believe it will become more so. This
:16:43. > :16:46.is what Grangemouth can expect. I am right on top of the first tank in
:16:47. > :16:53.Europe to bring in shale gas from the United States. It is an
:16:54. > :16:59.impressive sight, 37 metres up. But the one in Grangemouth is going to
:17:00. > :17:03.have twice the capacity. In October, the chemical plant at Grangemouth
:17:04. > :17:09.was brought to its knees. According to INEOS, it is losing ?150 million
:17:10. > :17:14.per year. It was due to close at the cost of 800 jobs. Following a bitter
:17:15. > :17:19.dispute between the company and the Unite union. But staff accepted new
:17:20. > :17:26.terms and conditions. Now INEOS say they will invest in its future. Once
:17:27. > :17:33.we have this tank built, on the back of that and a parallel today, we are
:17:34. > :17:38.negotiating long-term contract is -- contracts through the tank. They
:17:39. > :17:42.will be 15-20 years. We are committed to taking the gas and
:17:43. > :17:47.running the assets. It is a long-term, sustainable future that
:17:48. > :17:58.we have secured by making investment. This is what over 1000
:17:59. > :18:06.degrees looks like. It is a giant plan in Grangemouth. It takes in dry
:18:07. > :18:10.gas from the North Sea. It heats it up to 1100 Celsius and then what
:18:11. > :18:14.comes out of that our precious substances that we see in everyday
:18:15. > :18:21.items like the plastic in milk bottles and robbers. But INEOS says
:18:22. > :18:28.the cracker is only working and 50% as less gas is coming down the bad
:18:29. > :18:35.line. Inputs -- shale gas would have it working full tilt. The project at
:18:36. > :18:38.Grangemouth depends on loan guarantee of ?125 million from the
:18:39. > :18:41.UK government and the grant of 9 million from the Scottish
:18:42. > :18:45.Government. Management do plan to close down some their less
:18:46. > :18:52.profitable assets by the middle of 2015. They say they will close the
:18:53. > :18:56.old cracker and other assets. The company has the most will be
:18:57. > :19:05.redeployed and there would be a maximum of 50 redundancies. -- the
:19:06. > :19:14.company says most staff will be redeployed. Where you once had four
:19:15. > :19:19.or five plants that were functioning and people employed in them, they
:19:20. > :19:23.won't be there. The jobs will not be there. You can redeployed come you
:19:24. > :19:29.can move people around the sites and fill gaps and hopefully that is
:19:30. > :19:37.achieved. But the jobs that for once there are no longer there. -- that
:19:38. > :19:41.were once there. Clearly there are still tensions between both sides at
:19:42. > :19:45.Grangemouth. In Norway, by law, unions are represented on the boards
:19:46. > :19:54.of companies. Perhaps there's to learn between INEOS and the union
:19:55. > :19:59.here. There are social things we want to have here, and it is not
:20:00. > :20:03.every time we get what we want. But we tried to talk together, find a
:20:04. > :20:08.compromise that the workers can live with and the company can live with.
:20:09. > :20:16.That is the main thing to try to secure. INEOS has seen out it works
:20:17. > :20:24.in Norway, so both parties here sit try to -- should China to trust each
:20:25. > :20:27.other. The future seems bright in Norway, and if the investment goes
:20:28. > :20:34.ahead, maybe it will be in Grangemouth, too.
:20:35. > :20:37.In case you are not aware, gale force winds are forecast overnight
:20:38. > :20:40.and it is already affecting transport.
:20:41. > :20:44.ScotRail has decided not to run trains on at least 20 routes
:20:45. > :20:47.tomorrow as a precaution, because of forecast high winds. On remaining
:20:48. > :20:51.routes, no trains will run until seven in the morning and all lines
:20:52. > :20:58.will be subject to a 40mph speed restriction, imposed by Network
:20:59. > :21:00.Rail. Main lines are among those affected. You can check the details
:21:01. > :21:06.online. Now a quick look at tomorrow's front
:21:07. > :21:15.pages. A picture of Nigella Lawson. The main story, NHS is running close
:21:16. > :21:25.to breaking point, it says. The financial Times talks about
:21:26. > :21:29.tomorrow's Autumn Statement. And in the Guardian... Nigella Lawson again
:21:30. > :21:32.and state pension not until you are 70, says Osborne.
:21:33. > :21:35.That's all from me. More news is always on BBC Scotland's website,
:21:36. > :21:37.and Good Morning Scotland is on Radio Scotland tomorrow morning at
:21:38. > :21:48.six o'clock. Good night. Good evening. A winter storm heading
:21:49. > :21:53.our way overnight. It will be atrocious in Scotland through the
:21:54. > :21:58.morning. Some heavy rain to go with the wind. His strongest winds come
:21:59. > :22:01.down the North Sea coast into the afternoon. Northern Ireland see
:22:02. > :22:02.changeable conditions through the