:00:00. > :00:00.and they were still being attended to an hour or so later. I have seen
:00:00. > :00:18.a crane going up to the roof of the theatre to fix it. Tonight we have
:00:19. > :00:23.had the SNP's white paper arguing the case for independence, we have
:00:24. > :00:27.had a raft of documents arguing for the opposite and the result is the
:00:28. > :00:33.campaigns are pretty much where they were last Christmas. What happens
:00:34. > :00:40.next? What does the Yes campaign have to do to turn things around?
:00:41. > :00:44.Does Better Together risk expiring out of complacency? How do they keep
:00:45. > :00:48.us interested? The referendum campaign is a long one by the
:00:49. > :00:53.standards of British politics and there are another nine months to
:00:54. > :00:58.go. But despite campaigners working themselves into a frenzy, the polls
:00:59. > :01:07.are pretty much where they were one year ago. Huw Williams examines
:01:08. > :01:12.where we are at this Christmas. It is the season of goodwill, time for
:01:13. > :01:23.tidings of comfort and joy and peace on earth among women and men. An
:01:24. > :01:28.astounding cultural heritage... But this year has seen the referendum
:01:29. > :01:33.campaign ramping up. The Scottish Government launched its White Paper
:01:34. > :01:36.on Scotland's feature. But how much influence have the Yes campaign for
:01:37. > :01:47.the better together campaign actually had? The latest polling
:01:48. > :01:52.figures published today show a continuing shift towards voting yes
:01:53. > :01:57.for independence. That is a trend that has been going on for the last
:01:58. > :02:02.few months, but there is a stub when third to say they do not know how to
:02:03. > :02:10.vote. Today's survey shows awareness of the Scottish Government's white
:02:11. > :02:14.paper was very high amongst the over 55s, but lower amongst younger
:02:15. > :02:20.voters. But not many people who knew about it said it would change the
:02:21. > :02:25.way they would vote. The novelty is softening and they are tending to
:02:26. > :02:28.move towards no as they do not know. There is a lot of work from both
:02:29. > :02:35.camps to win the people back for the No campaign or for the Yes campaign
:02:36. > :02:41.to win people back. How should they sell themselves to consolidate their
:02:42. > :02:46.support and went over the undecided? The Yes campaign has got positivity
:02:47. > :02:51.on its side. It is all about the future, potential, things that could
:02:52. > :02:57.and might happen and that is quite attractive, quite seductive. But
:02:58. > :03:02.that can tip over into recklessness. They have got an emotion they can
:03:03. > :03:07.build on. The advantage of the No campaign has is that most people are
:03:08. > :03:12.risk averse. It is very difficult to launch new products and open up new
:03:13. > :03:17.sectors in the market and it is very hard work. People like what they are
:03:18. > :03:23.familiar with. It is worth remembering next September is still
:03:24. > :03:27.nine months away. We have had arguments on both sides so far. With
:03:28. > :03:33.the release of the White Paper that will start things off a bit more and
:03:34. > :03:38.once we get into 2014 it might concentrate minds a little bit and
:03:39. > :03:44.make people take it more seriously. The campaign will ramp up at that
:03:45. > :03:47.point in time as well. The No campaign are quite a long way in
:03:48. > :03:52.front and that is where this momentum starts to become much more
:03:53. > :03:58.interesting. In a marketing sense if your message was not getting across,
:03:59. > :04:02.you would not want to push too hard and too fast. You would hold back
:04:03. > :04:08.and keep your reserves in store and let them loose later on in the
:04:09. > :04:12.spring or the summer of next year. Spring is an important time in the
:04:13. > :04:17.Highlands when shooting estates Brendan Moore is to benefit the
:04:18. > :04:21.grouse. Perhaps next year it will also be the time when the referendum
:04:22. > :04:26.campaigns start to set the heather alight. I am joined by the former
:04:27. > :04:31.Scottish Government adviser Alex Bell and by the art critic and
:04:32. > :04:36.commentator Joyce McMillan and in Glasgow the lawyer and labour
:04:37. > :04:41.activist Ian Smart. Alex Bell, we were told the White Paper was going
:04:42. > :04:45.to be the game changer and all our questions would be answered. It has
:04:46. > :04:52.not quite worked out like that, has it? It has in the sense we have a
:04:53. > :04:57.clear position, a point of view from which people can argue and that is a
:04:58. > :05:00.strong thing for those in the Yes campaign. It is a heartening
:05:01. > :05:06.campaign to go to the doorstep knowing that you have 650 questions
:05:07. > :05:10.that have been answered. It is heartening to people in the campaign
:05:11. > :05:15.that they feel this great sense that the other side has not defined what
:05:16. > :05:20.they are about. We still do not know what is so good about the UK. In
:05:21. > :05:25.that sense it has moved things along and it has given the campaigners
:05:26. > :05:32.some kind of courage to go further on to more doorsteps. The White
:05:33. > :05:36.Paper was one of the issues you had with the leadership of the SNP. What
:05:37. > :05:42.do you think it should have done that it did not do? The analysis the
:05:43. > :05:45.Scottish Government is putting forward is not sufficiently
:05:46. > :05:49.compelling all the way to independence. A lot of what is in
:05:50. > :05:55.the White Paper could be achieved with some form of Devo Max. When it
:05:56. > :06:00.refers to the full ranges of the state, it does so in quite a
:06:01. > :06:05.speculative way. If you look at its promise of the early years, then
:06:06. > :06:09.what you get is a pledge about more childcare hours, but then some
:06:10. > :06:14.speculative paragraphs about how you could link up welfare, tax and other
:06:15. > :06:19.things. If you are selling independence, that is the bit you
:06:20. > :06:25.want to flog much harder. You want to say, give me all the powers and I
:06:26. > :06:33.can conspire a tax, welfare and other systems, such that it is a lot
:06:34. > :06:39.better off in Scotland. Ian Smart, you would agree with a lot of what
:06:40. > :06:45.Alex Bell has just said? The overwhelming element of the Yes
:06:46. > :06:49.campaign is how inept it has been. If you go back to the original
:06:50. > :06:53.message of the Lord, that decisions are best taken by the people in
:06:54. > :07:01.Scotland, that is a very powerful message. It is not necessarily easy
:07:02. > :07:10.for us to deal with. But they are building up these ragtag
:07:11. > :07:16.lunatics... This is on the margins. You presumably would agree with Alex
:07:17. > :07:21.Bell that your opponents would have had a better case had they outlined
:07:22. > :07:26.some of the things he is suggesting? I think they would have
:07:27. > :07:30.done better if they had started with we are in favour of independence and
:07:31. > :07:35.that is a blank sheet of paper that Scotland can do whatever it likes
:07:36. > :07:42.with. But most of this policy stuff is costly and it makes it look like
:07:43. > :07:47.a hopeless leap of faith. Do you think it should have been more
:07:48. > :07:52.radical? I am often in favour of people being more radical. My
:07:53. > :07:57.problem with the SNP is it has not worked out its relationship to the
:07:58. > :08:02.critical phase of advanced capitalism we are at. It is still
:08:03. > :08:06.trying in a Blairite wait to be all things to all people and suggest we
:08:07. > :08:10.can have a social democracy without confronting some of the
:08:11. > :08:15.configurations of big business that we are accustomed to in the UK. The
:08:16. > :08:20.whole issue over Grangemouth was a symbol of that. A normal social
:08:21. > :08:27.democracy would not have such a major energy resource in private
:08:28. > :08:33.ownership, but you do not hear that kind of thing from the SNP. You are
:08:34. > :08:37.not saying nationalised the top 250 monopolies? No, of course not, but
:08:38. > :08:41.if you look at Governments across Europe you are not seeing major
:08:42. > :08:50.energy resources in private ownership. The French Government
:08:51. > :08:52.still owns 80% of EDF. They are talking about Nordic social
:08:53. > :08:57.democracy on the social policy side of what they are doing, so they need
:08:58. > :09:04.to be more realistic about what that means. You would have liked to have
:09:05. > :09:09.seen more of the Will Hutton type ideas of changing the way that
:09:10. > :09:15.private companies would be governed in Scotland, the way finance would
:09:16. > :09:20.be governed, getting rid of short termism. There were ideas in there
:09:21. > :09:22.about mandatory trade union representation, worker
:09:23. > :09:29.representation, but they were just floated. There were lots of ideas
:09:30. > :09:34.anyone on the left would find preferable to anything coming out of
:09:35. > :09:37.the Labour Party at the moment. But there are still contradictions that
:09:38. > :09:43.make you feel a bit uneasy and I would like to see the SNP working
:09:44. > :09:49.harder at making international alliances to develop a kind of idea
:09:50. > :09:52.and a series of systems that might restore to governments across the
:09:53. > :09:58.western world some control over their social policy and stop us from
:09:59. > :10:00.being sucked into an increasingly strange phase where multinationals
:10:01. > :10:06.are almost dictating Government policy.
:10:07. > :10:11.Ian Smart, if you have a theory about why that could be quite
:10:12. > :10:21.dangerous for the SNP if they did what both Alex Bell and Joyce
:10:22. > :10:27.McMillan have suggested. The SNP do not traditionally do well and Labour
:10:28. > :10:31.areas. For the first time ever recently they did do well in those
:10:32. > :10:34.areas but the bulk of the support us in rural north-east Scotland and
:10:35. > :10:40.those people are not attracted to any kind of left-wing prospectus
:10:41. > :10:48.involving denationalisation of utilities -- nationalisation. You
:10:49. > :10:53.know, subsidising the feckless and long-term unemployed as they would
:10:54. > :10:58.see it. The danger is that the SNP get tied up in this agenda and that
:10:59. > :11:02.the price of chasing our vote will mean that they will lose a lot of
:11:03. > :11:10.their traditional vote. That is a problem, Alex Bell, for the SNP.
:11:11. > :11:15.This could play well in meetings and Glasgow and Edinburgh but the SNP do
:11:16. > :11:22.have to worry about how this goes down on the streets of the likes of
:11:23. > :11:29.Forfar? If you are trying to win a majority in Scotland you must choose
:11:30. > :11:34.the votes that you do not have. But you must not alienate those who
:11:35. > :11:40.vote for you already. That is not the case at the moment. The
:11:41. > :11:46.challenge for the SNP is to win new boats and by doing so they must
:11:47. > :11:51.break new territory. I think this slightly bizarre for a man as
:11:52. > :11:58.engaged and understanding and raising awareness of Scotland for
:11:59. > :12:03.Labour over the decades, for him to dismiss the wider debate that is
:12:04. > :12:07.going on in Scotland is very strange. The referendum will be won
:12:08. > :12:11.or lost, but what is happening to Scotland and the process? Where are
:12:12. > :12:18.we going to intellectual a during this? What will be effect on
:12:19. > :12:22.September the 19th when we looked around and ask ourselves" what do we
:12:23. > :12:28.do next?" To independence you have a sense of that but there will be a
:12:29. > :12:31.mass of the morning on the 19th if we can't around and said that we
:12:32. > :12:37.voted no but what do we do next? Therefore at least Joyce McMillan
:12:38. > :12:42.and myself are trying to engage in a nonpartisan debate which is about
:12:43. > :12:48.how Scotland's leases itself in the world. You have to level is, one
:12:49. > :12:52.that the SNP must win that extra vote therefore it is silly to say it
:12:53. > :12:56.should avoid the west coast of Scotland and number two, all of us
:12:57. > :13:05.who engage in Scottish politics must engage in a global argument. Joyce
:13:06. > :13:10.McMillan looks bemused. I am amazed to hear Ian Smart dismissed some
:13:11. > :13:13.sort of return to a socialist democracy to one that is so
:13:14. > :13:17.left-wing that Google in the North East of Scotland will not support
:13:18. > :13:22.it. You must be clear about this, it is the current British government
:13:23. > :13:24.that is remarkably right wing by any kind of European standard and what
:13:25. > :13:30.we are looking for in this independence debate is some way back
:13:31. > :13:34.through a form of British politics or independence through a more
:13:35. > :13:38.rational form of government and the interest of all of the people. The
:13:39. > :13:43.crucial factor in this campaign has you can pick away at the SNP's
:13:44. > :13:47.programme if people say they are getting bogged down in the details,
:13:48. > :13:52.others say they cannot answer the questions, but at least they have
:13:53. > :13:56.tried as imperfectly as anyone might argue, to write down their
:13:57. > :13:59.prospective for a progressive programme for a future Scotland
:14:00. > :14:12.under independence. The absolutely outstanding factor as... Give them a
:14:13. > :14:19.chance to reply! A corporation tax cut is not social
:14:20. > :14:23.democracy. Asking workers to give up active involvement in a trade union
:14:24. > :14:34.is far from a progressive democracy, this is absolute nonsense! That is
:14:35. > :14:38.what the White Paper says. What they are trying to do us all of these
:14:39. > :14:42.things and give them to all of the people. We are focusing on the Yes
:14:43. > :14:48.campaign, is the problem not that the No campaign... What is the point
:14:49. > :14:53.of this Better Together campaign? In a sense what someone like you would
:14:54. > :14:57.like to say presumably is that you would not want a direct debate on
:14:58. > :15:00.these terms, the whole issue of independence as irrelevant, there
:15:01. > :15:05.are more important things to worry about, yet the focus of the Better
:15:06. > :15:12.Together campaign is to address the Yes campaign on the territory of
:15:13. > :15:22.their choosing. I think opposition to independence as what unites the
:15:23. > :15:26.No campaign. Is there any evidence that the Better Together campaign
:15:27. > :15:30.are getting on any better than the Yes campaign? The Scottish
:15:31. > :15:35.government uses JFK International Airport amounts of money to do
:15:36. > :15:38.bat-mac promote an idea but the fact that the Better Together campaign is
:15:39. > :15:46.doing better shows that we are doing well. That is not good enough. Let
:15:47. > :15:52.me bring up an issue I discussed with Alex Salmond. There was a poll
:15:53. > :15:57.in Aberdeenshire of school students who voted 75% against independence.
:15:58. > :16:00.Sorry, are we supposed to believe that young people in Aberdeenshire
:16:01. > :16:05.made that decision because they thought Alistair Darling or Alistair
:16:06. > :16:08.Carmichael where really convincing or because they just don't see the
:16:09. > :16:17.whole issue as being relevant to them? It is the latter. The point of
:16:18. > :16:20.the cat -- Better Together campaign is to address the concerns that
:16:21. > :16:23.people might have and to highlight their concerns and make sure that
:16:24. > :16:30.the maximise their concerns to make sure that independence is finished
:16:31. > :16:37.not for a generation but for ever. We are running out of time. Quickly,
:16:38. > :16:41.Alex Bell, obviously the Yes campaign is a game changer. What is
:16:42. > :16:47.it going to be? The Yes campaign must get its case at Ross with more
:16:48. > :16:52.enthusiasm. I need more than that! I come from a Labour background. My
:16:53. > :16:57.father wrote speeches for a Labour Prime Minister. I was brought up
:16:58. > :17:05.around left-wing thinking and socialism. You were not going to get
:17:06. > :17:11.the things you wanted from a Labour point of view and that is why I am
:17:12. > :17:16.now more pro-nationalist. Briefly please, Joyce McMillan, what do you
:17:17. > :17:23.think must change. Over the past year nothing much has changed is the
:17:24. > :17:29.basic bones of it. If the better together campaign continues and its
:17:30. > :17:33.president -- present mode, then the Yes campaign will have little other
:17:34. > :17:40.to do than sit and wait for the no vote to begin to crumble because the
:17:41. > :17:43.10th two mat -- Better Together campaign has failed to give us a
:17:44. > :17:49.vision of a better United Kingdom. People will become increasingly
:17:50. > :17:54.unable to vote for it. The negativity as shocking and there is
:17:55. > :18:01.too much scaremongering, it is ridiculous. Which side are due on at
:18:02. > :18:05.the moment? I am definitely leaning towards the Yes campaign because I
:18:06. > :18:10.cannot stand the negativity of the No campaign.
:18:11. > :18:15.You should be expected at this point to say the terrible danger for the
:18:16. > :18:19.Better Together campaign is complacency but in a bombshell in
:18:20. > :18:26.your latest blog you have not said that. I was having a rather end of
:18:27. > :18:34.year the joke. There is no room for complacency.
:18:35. > :18:38.Tomorrow's front pages: The Telegraph talks about those injured
:18:39. > :18:43.after the roof collapsed in the west end theatre. Join us again in
:18:44. > :18:49.January. Merry Christmas and a happy New Year. Goodbye.