:00:00. > :00:00.ahead to the long-term, how we will get to a high skilled economy that
:00:00. > :00:15.will have sustained growth shared all over the country.
:00:16. > :00:21.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, the Defence Secretary was in town today
:00:22. > :00:23.to warn about the perils of independence.
:00:24. > :00:25.We'll ask whether this is scaremongering and discuss if
:00:26. > :00:27.daytripping UK ministers are really going to bolster the pro-union
:00:28. > :00:30.campaign. Good evening. Philip Hammond paid a
:00:31. > :00:34.visit to defence workers in Glasgow today to warn them that their jobs
:00:35. > :00:36.would be under threat if Scotland became independent. It wasn't a
:00:37. > :00:40.message that was necessarily warmly received by the staff at the Talis
:00:41. > :00:43.factory. And the SNP were quick to say that the Defence Secretary was
:00:44. > :00:53.spreading myths and misinformation. Emma Ailes reports.
:00:54. > :00:58.Site focused on the latest front on the battle over Scotland's future
:00:59. > :01:02.today. The defence secretary was in Glasgow at a company that makes
:01:03. > :01:06.periscopes. He was there to remind people that the business of defence
:01:07. > :01:10.means jobs. The Ministry of defence in the UK buys much of its
:01:11. > :01:15.capability from its indigenous industrial base. That is not for
:01:16. > :01:19.reasons of sentimentality, for reasons of strategic control, of
:01:20. > :01:25.being able to manage the security of plants and facilities and for
:01:26. > :01:28.reasons of resilience in times of conflict.
:01:29. > :01:34.Philip Hammond insisted the purpose of this visit was not to attack the
:01:35. > :01:41.Nationalists or make ground water dumber mornings. UKYP and who said
:01:42. > :01:50.that he did not want to influence the consequences of independence but
:01:51. > :01:53.how do you reconcile that with the consequence that our jobs are under
:01:54. > :02:00.threat and that we and our families. ? Also out for the cameras,
:02:01. > :02:04.Britain's first Sea Lord who made a rare foray into political waters. He
:02:05. > :02:10.said splitting up the military would be like pulling threads out of a
:02:11. > :02:14.rope. He said it would be an unravelling of defence capability
:02:15. > :02:18.both sides of the border. The nature of our military contract with
:02:19. > :02:23.infrastructure, these people, equipment, indeed the families who
:02:24. > :02:26.support the hard-pressed Navy, and you will know that we have manpower
:02:27. > :02:31.pressures at the moment which are considerable, all of those add up to
:02:32. > :02:36.reconstruct which simply does not clear dividing efficiently. Rather
:02:37. > :02:41.than a lesser military, the SNP says an independent Scotland would simply
:02:42. > :02:44.have a different type of military, one better suited to a northern
:02:45. > :02:49.European nation and crucially trident free. Cuts to personnel,
:02:50. > :02:53.cuts to spending, cuts to our historic regiments, that is the
:02:54. > :02:57.legacy of the UK Government and an independent Scotland will have the
:02:58. > :03:02.resources to pay for what we require giving us the appropriate defence
:03:03. > :03:06.capabilities and will see us getting read of the things we do not
:03:07. > :03:10.acquire, like Trident. Is always what we have heard two
:03:11. > :03:13.people and bluster or warning? The decision of whether to replace the
:03:14. > :03:19.ageing Trident system will be taken in 2016. If the UK Government
:03:20. > :03:22.decides not to call for a like-for-like replacement, it is
:03:23. > :03:26.possible that nuclear weapons will leave the claim either way. -- leave
:03:27. > :03:29.the river. I'm joined now from Aberdeen by Dr
:03:30. > :03:32.Colin Fleming of Edinburgh University and the Scottish Centre
:03:33. > :03:35.on Constitutional Change. And here in the studio by Dr John Macdonald,
:03:36. > :03:38.Director of the Scottish Global Forum defence think tank. John,
:03:39. > :03:44.let's start with this business about Trident. Is there a lot of posturing
:03:45. > :03:47.going on here? Do you think actually maybe what we are seeing being
:03:48. > :03:52.hinted from all sides is that there could be a basis for negotiation?
:03:53. > :03:58.Yes and there is clearly a lot of posturing going on. Regarding how
:03:59. > :04:02.much of the negotiation tool it will be remains to be seen. But take us
:04:03. > :04:07.through this. In your judgement, realistically, if there were to be a
:04:08. > :04:12.vote for independence and the Scottish Government wanted to get
:04:13. > :04:17.rid of Trident, what your opinion is a reasonable claim done acting skill
:04:18. > :04:22.for doing that? I think they take skill set out in the white paper is
:04:23. > :04:26.realistic. They are looking at notional getting rid of Trident
:04:27. > :04:32.within a 2020 time frame but the wording suggests there is also that
:04:33. > :04:38.of wriggle room is that is required. -- there is also a bit of wriggle
:04:39. > :04:41.room. This is a democratic process. The SNP has not hijacked anybody
:04:42. > :04:45.with this notion to get rid of Trident. The Scottish public seem
:04:46. > :04:53.broadly supportive of getting out of it and it seems to get done -- seems
:04:54. > :04:57.to be popular with those who will vote no night. Also there is the
:04:58. > :05:06.element of a constitutional ban. It carries a lot of weight. Military
:05:07. > :05:09.boffins and ex-generals tend to talk about this in evening business but
:05:10. > :05:16.what has been overlooked in much of the debate is constitution. You talk
:05:17. > :05:21.about wriggle room. On the assumption that there is a yes vote,
:05:22. > :05:24.the British Government would say that it is very difficult because
:05:25. > :05:27.they have to construct new societies which will take time and money,
:05:28. > :05:33.you're going to have to be a bit flexible. It is not in our mutual
:05:34. > :05:37.interest for you to start moving Trident over Scotland with nowhere
:05:38. > :05:41.to go. Do you think there is the basis for negotiation? Yes and I
:05:42. > :05:47.think that would be sensible. Common sense has two prevail and the SNP, I
:05:48. > :05:51.think, has made quite clear that it wants rid of Trident. The UK
:05:52. > :05:56.Government is fully aware of that but it makes no sense to try to push
:05:57. > :06:00.this any faster than it will go. Ultimately, of course, this will
:06:01. > :06:04.come down to negotiations which will take place after a yes vote. What is
:06:05. > :06:12.your view, Colin, and whether there is flexibility? Broadly in agreement
:06:13. > :06:17.with John, actually. There are a couple of things I think we need to
:06:18. > :06:21.think about. One is the fact that the SNP, the Scottish Government,
:06:22. > :06:24.have said they will move Trident. I do not think anybody after a yes
:06:25. > :06:31.vote can deny them that right so the question is over ten skills. I
:06:32. > :06:34.cannot see the SNP going back on their decision to remove Trident. In
:06:35. > :06:39.fact, they will go ahead with that, I am sure. The interesting question
:06:40. > :06:43.is over ten skills and I would suggest that there is wriggle room.
:06:44. > :06:48.I think there should be room to negotiate this and the Trident
:06:49. > :06:53.issue, the nuclear fleet, is part of a wider defence package that will
:06:54. > :06:57.need to be negotiated. For example, the Scottish Government are talking
:06:58. > :07:04.about the transition phase. To have a good relationship, a phase
:07:05. > :07:09.transition, you need a good relationship with the rest of the
:07:10. > :07:13.UK, this would be a good place to start. I think both sides know that.
:07:14. > :07:17.I get the feeling from the Scottish Government, in paper and through
:07:18. > :07:21.interviews, that there is no appetite to go down that road. I was
:07:22. > :07:25.thinking perhaps in a broader context. Although Philip Hammond has
:07:26. > :07:31.denied that he was the Minister who told the Guardian that in fact a
:07:32. > :07:36.currency union would be perfectly negotiable, it is an obvious area
:07:37. > :07:40.where you can see a trade-off. You talked to us about a currency union,
:07:41. > :07:45.we will talk to you about delaying getting out of Trident until you can
:07:46. > :07:51.find somewhere else to put it. Absolutely. There are lots of areas
:07:52. > :07:55.were you this and perhaps the access to NATO membership would be another
:07:56. > :07:59.one. If you give us time, we will agree membership. If there are
:08:00. > :08:05.buyers, I do not personally think they are to NATO membership -- there
:08:06. > :08:11.are two NATO membership but if there are I think it would be the rest of
:08:12. > :08:14.the UK cause a problem. Having some form of wriggle room, not a
:08:15. > :08:19.situation where nuclear weapons would be in Scotland indefinitely
:08:20. > :08:25.but when Scotland understood that the rest of the UK needed time to
:08:26. > :08:28.decide whether the needed or wanted nuclear weapons or have time to
:08:29. > :08:34.build new facilities. That could be something in terms of the EU
:08:35. > :08:43.negotiations as well and whether Scotland have fast track. This is
:08:44. > :08:46.one issue, is not, John, we are an independent Scotland would be in a
:08:47. > :08:51.very strong negotiating position. You can argue about the rights and
:08:52. > :08:59.wrongs of a currency union. One argument is that all of the cards
:09:00. > :09:02.would be in the hands of the UK, whether things are subsidised would
:09:03. > :09:06.be up to the UK. On this one, Scotland would have something which
:09:07. > :09:10.the UK really means which is some sort of negotiated transfer of these
:09:11. > :09:15.weapons. Yes, I think some people frown a little bit and I think it is
:09:16. > :09:18.quite cynical to call Trident a bargaining card but I think it could
:09:19. > :09:23.be looked at in that way. I think the narratives we have seen lately
:09:24. > :09:26.reveal something which I think is quite welcome. I think that the UK
:09:27. > :09:34.Government has been seeing up until now it will not help, it will not
:09:35. > :09:38.negotiate, Scotland will be isolated and me. The narrative that is
:09:39. > :09:42.emerging now is far more realistic. It is suggesting that the UK will be
:09:43. > :09:48.hit by an independent board as well and to me suggests a long overdue
:09:49. > :09:53.acknowledgement that there is a neutral symbiosis between Scotland
:09:54. > :10:00.and UK and that if is going to work post yes, there has to be a lot of
:10:01. > :10:02.mutual symbiosis. It is not that Scotland will thought yes and the
:10:03. > :10:06.lingering in the North Sea on its own. Counterintuitive though it may
:10:07. > :10:11.seem, recent comments from there in body actually suggests a growing
:10:12. > :10:14.awareness of this symbiosis between Scotland and the UK which can
:10:15. > :10:18.actually lead to a far more constructive and mature dialogue
:10:19. > :10:24.about what follows a yes vote. The whole Trident issue could go all if
:10:25. > :10:27.Britain as a whole decided it did not want to build a new one?
:10:28. > :10:36.Absolutely, it could. Indeed I suspect that is not on the cards
:10:37. > :10:41.just yet. The nuclear deterrent has been given a little bit of life by
:10:42. > :10:45.the situation in Ukraine and the return of great power politics. I do
:10:46. > :10:52.not know is that the last or not but I think there would be an argument
:10:53. > :10:56.for its continuation. Give us a sense of the ten skills. I know
:10:57. > :10:59.money is being spent on a Trident replacement at the moment but this
:11:00. > :11:04.is preparatory stages. -- give us a sense of the timescale. When Woody
:11:05. > :11:10.decision have to be made to stand very serious amounts of money? The
:11:11. > :11:15.problem is the word... If you look at the defence and Security review
:11:16. > :11:21.in 2010, they are talking about passing the main gate of defence
:11:22. > :11:29.procurement in 2016. Up until that point, it is preparatory. After
:11:30. > :11:32.that, then it is real sums of money being paid and after that stage it
:11:33. > :11:37.is very difficult to deal with all of the risks, the technology, and
:11:38. > :11:44.actually work out a reasonable amount of money. That is the same
:11:45. > :11:50.with all acquisition processes in the defence industry. OK. You get
:11:51. > :11:54.certain things that are... OK so the big debate would be around then.
:11:55. > :12:02.Slightly running out of time. John, your thoughts on the first few
:12:03. > :12:14.words? Great title! -- first the Lord. It is hard to see them wanting
:12:15. > :12:19.Scotland isolated. It will be no different to many other states in
:12:20. > :12:23.the trans-Atlantic region. Is usual for people like that too, and make a
:12:24. > :12:27.statement which many people will see as a political intervention? Does
:12:28. > :12:31.not meant to happen but we have seen civil servants doing similar things
:12:32. > :12:37.in recent times. This comes to the heart of the sense of crisis that is
:12:38. > :12:41.actually seeping into the UK establishment. They realise that the
:12:42. > :12:45.referendum is uttered, they are taking notice of it. Please see the
:12:46. > :12:48.re-export rising in the polls and there is a long overdue awareness
:12:49. > :12:52.that this is serious and has a serious invocations. I would also
:12:53. > :12:57.save possible that although the letter from all of the admirals made
:12:58. > :13:02.headline news, this is by no means the majority view within the UK
:13:03. > :13:08.military establishment. There have long been known to be great
:13:09. > :13:10.reservations about renewing Trident. So whilst this apparent concern
:13:11. > :13:15.about losing Trident has made front page today, it is not... So the
:13:16. > :13:19.political debate and is talking about but Colin Fleming, who comes
:13:20. > :13:25.from within the military... Indeed, it is very logical. The MoD sources
:13:26. > :13:28.saying that Triton is not what they want. Thank you very much indeed.
:13:29. > :13:31.The ministerial day-trip has become a feature of political life in
:13:32. > :13:35.recent months. Philip Hammond is just the latest Secretary of State
:13:36. > :13:37.to catch the early plane North to deliver a warning about the
:13:38. > :13:41.consequences of Scottish independence and fly back to London
:13:42. > :13:45.in time for tea. Those in favour of the union may still be ahead in
:13:46. > :13:48.polls, but the yes vote has crept up recently. In the last week alone
:13:49. > :13:51.there have been suggestions of soaring energy bills, suffering for
:13:52. > :13:54.the world's poorest people and, who could forget, a cataclysmic impact
:13:55. > :13:57.on geopolitics if we vote yes. Have those campaigning for a no vote
:13:58. > :14:08.taken Project Fear too far? Huw Williams reports.
:14:09. > :14:18.In the end, perhaps, all advertising comes down to a choice between hope
:14:19. > :14:25.and fear. Martin Luther King... We, as a people, will get to the
:14:26. > :14:39.promised land! Private James Fraser. We are doomed! To be quiet, Fraser.
:14:40. > :14:43.In the last few days, we have had a string of warnings, call them smear
:14:44. > :14:49.stories if you will come from Better Together. Whether it is about
:14:50. > :14:51.currency union, Jim Murphy's destructive change, cataclysm,
:14:52. > :14:59.higher energy bills or damage to defence. The more these doom laden
:15:00. > :15:05.warnings come out about pensions being affected, jobs being lost,
:15:06. > :15:13.exports being lost etc, the more people start to disbelieve it.
:15:14. > :15:16.Because it begins to strain credulity. Family think Lynne Better
:15:17. > :15:21.Together has gone beyond losing credibility, that its tactics are
:15:22. > :15:26.counter-productive. The story which said something like England won't
:15:27. > :15:30.let you into the pound number one frames things in terms of England
:15:31. > :15:35.versus Scotland. England is still in Scotland what they cannot do.
:15:36. > :15:38.Secondly it implies that England is acting in ways that are at odds with
:15:39. > :15:43.the Scottish democratic spirit and third in suggests that England is
:15:44. > :15:47.dominating Scotland. All three things together actually act very
:15:48. > :15:52.much into the hands of the yes campaign. But there is one further
:15:53. > :15:58.factor. Any parent knows that if you tell a child they cannot do this
:15:59. > :16:04.then even if they don't particularly want to the action, they will do it
:16:05. > :16:08.just to show they can. The psychological server that is
:16:09. > :16:12.reactor. If you try to take away somebody's autonomy, they will
:16:13. > :16:16.assert it. He says that causes the two campaign groups to be seen
:16:17. > :16:20.differently. It has been portrayed in such a way that the no campaign
:16:21. > :16:23.is the other, telling us what we should and should not do. If there
:16:24. > :16:27.is one basic rule of influence that psychology shows with it is that I
:16:28. > :16:32.would groups are very bad at influencing us and we are far more
:16:33. > :16:35.likely to be influenced by people who we think of as one for us. But
:16:36. > :16:40.perhaps this is not that surprising that there are differences between
:16:41. > :16:44.the two sides of the debate. The yes campaign was much better organised
:16:45. > :16:53.and better funded from the word go. There is a large band of maybe
:16:54. > :17:01.10-15,000 activists out there for whom this is the dream come true.
:17:02. > :17:05.You know, this is the moment when they can hopefully when independence
:17:06. > :17:11.for Scotland. It is not quite the same if you are a Better Together
:17:12. > :17:15.campaigner. The union is the fact of life. Why would you want to work? It
:17:16. > :17:23.does not released the blood in terms of going out to campaign on it.
:17:24. > :17:28.But maybe the real difference is that a cry of freedom will always
:17:29. > :17:29.make a better rallying call than a promise of more fiscal autonomy in
:17:30. > :17:41.an enhanced devolution settlement. I am drawing by the journalist and
:17:42. > :17:48.commentator Katie Grant and by the former Labour media adviser Simon
:17:49. > :17:55.Pia. Does the better together campaign have a problem? Yes. It had
:17:56. > :18:02.a problem to start with, it is not as appealing as yes, it does not
:18:03. > :18:07.sound so appealing, and arguing for the status quo is always more dismal
:18:08. > :18:13.than arguing for something which promises to be new and exciting.
:18:14. > :18:21.They did have a problem. It also has a problem in that it is not a unity.
:18:22. > :18:25.The Labour Party and the Conservative party do not want to
:18:26. > :18:30.appear on the same platform, so there is a division which has not
:18:31. > :18:36.been sorted out. In some ways, they are sometimes invisible, except when
:18:37. > :18:44.they are saying unpleasant things. What do you make of these ministers
:18:45. > :18:49.coming up on day trips? I am not sure how much it is coordinated.
:18:50. > :18:58.That is just the thing, it is an uncoordinated my asthma, let's go up
:18:59. > :19:04.and say this. To the outsider, it looks chaotic and it looks as though
:19:05. > :19:08.people suddenly remembered that the referendum is going to come, so they
:19:09. > :19:11.send people up to say something and they disappear again. It is a very
:19:12. > :19:18.strange organisation, it seems to me. The big voices which could be
:19:19. > :19:24.really powerful and continually tell us good things about the union,
:19:25. > :19:30.Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown, they speak and then they vanish. There is
:19:31. > :19:35.no one concerted voice, whereas the yes campaign has one unified voice.
:19:36. > :19:45.Did you think there is a problem? It is fundamental. There is a famous
:19:46. > :19:53.quote, the best lack all conviction, the worst fault of passionate
:19:54. > :19:58.intensity. They have the passionate intensity. He was referring to the
:19:59. > :20:04.growth of nationalism across Europe, and the disruption it
:20:05. > :20:08.caused, but the Nationalists have the passionate intensity, which
:20:09. > :20:14.takes logic and rationality of the argument. What Philip Hammond was
:20:15. > :20:21.saying was fairly logical and rational, that there could well be
:20:22. > :20:24.jobs lost in the defence industry, and it is quite a major part of the
:20:25. > :20:31.Scottish economy, and it is reasonable to ask the question. But
:20:32. > :20:35.the Nationalists have the better PR, they have been working towards this
:20:36. > :20:40.for 80 years, and it has caught the Unionist side on the hop, nobody in
:20:41. > :20:46.the political establishment saw this coming, and right across the Western
:20:47. > :20:56.world we have had a reaction against establishments. They are all quite
:20:57. > :21:04.different political movements, but we live in an age of this. What
:21:05. > :21:11.about this issue about Labour's role in this? You use to advise them.
:21:12. > :21:14.They do not seem to be able to make up their mind whether they want to
:21:15. > :21:24.be part of the campaign and then they pop up under a different
:21:25. > :21:31.banner, it seems a bit confused, what they are trying to pitch.
:21:32. > :21:39.Labour, like the other unionists, have been caught on the hop. I
:21:40. > :21:43.wanted a referendum in 2008. Labour would have been in a better position
:21:44. > :21:52.to appeal to Scotland, whereas the anti-Tory feeling is very visible in
:21:53. > :21:56.the Scottish psyche now, so when Philip Hammond or any Tory minister
:21:57. > :22:05.comes up to Scotland, you can tell they are afraid, they feel
:22:06. > :22:10.uncomfortable being here. Labour could have played this in a
:22:11. > :22:14.different way. Of course, Labour deserves a lot of criticism for
:22:15. > :22:20.this. Labour have been too defensive, Alistair Darling has been
:22:21. > :22:27.a lone voice, but people like Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, where are
:22:28. > :22:31.they? The big East of the last decade or so, Gordon Brown, John
:22:32. > :22:35.Reid, they should be entering into the fray. People making the most
:22:36. > :22:47.passionate defence of solidarity across the UK, it is down to Brian
:22:48. > :22:53.Wilson and George Galloway. That is not what they would want. But they
:22:54. > :23:02.have got to be bolder. That is what Alex Salmond has always been, he is
:23:03. > :23:06.bold, brash, vulgar, populist. They want it on the ground, they do not
:23:07. > :23:11.want a logical, rational discussion, they are appealing to the
:23:12. > :23:15.heartstrings. You criticised the way they are running it, what could they
:23:16. > :23:22.do, realistically, to turn things around? They could cheer up, start
:23:23. > :23:28.telling us... Gordon Brown might crack a smile, tell us the benefits
:23:29. > :23:35.of the union, of which there are benefits, which do not just involve
:23:36. > :23:44.it being worse if we fall apart. Should they turn down the negative
:23:45. > :23:48.stuff? Yes, as the psychologists would say, if you carry on saying
:23:49. > :23:59.blooming things, people do not listen. We need cheerful messages.
:24:00. > :24:10.The no campaign were the out party, the yes campaign... In many ways,
:24:11. > :24:16.after September the 18th, if there is a no vote, and it is narrow, we
:24:17. > :24:20.cannot be gloomy about it, we have to feel that we have done something
:24:21. > :24:26.that is positive, and if there is a yes vote, the yes campaign will feel
:24:27. > :24:30.it is immensely positive. The no campaign has got to have a new
:24:31. > :24:37.road, and that is what they need to be pressing, if you don't know, --
:24:38. > :24:41.if you vote no, things will be better. That is what they need to
:24:42. > :24:46.tell us. The front pages. The Scotsman leads
:24:47. > :25:03.on inflation, down to 1.6%. The picture of the situation in
:25:04. > :25:14.Ukraine. That is all we have time for, I am
:25:15. > :25:31.back tomorrow. Good night. Another cold one tonight, but
:25:32. > :25:36.another fine day for England and were. Plenty of sunshine to come.
:25:37. > :25:41.Windier further north and west, cloudy with rain across Scotland and
:25:42. > :25:47.Northern Ireland. It will feel colder. Patchy rain extending into
:25:48. > :25:52.Northern Ireland, and the West of Scotland. Still some dry spells
:25:53. > :25:58.across the East of Scotland, but the odd spot of rain. Across the border,
:25:59. > :26:04.we emerge into sunshine for England and Wales, it will be another
:26:05. > :26:08.stunning day. As we have seen recently, around the coastal fringe,
:26:09. > :26:09.and onshore