:00:00. > :00:11.trial for a wicked crime with the killer is eluding justice.
:00:12. > :00:17.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: The campaign for the women's vote
:00:18. > :00:21.gathers momentum. It's clear the Yes and No campaigns are working hard to
:00:22. > :00:26.find the right sweeteners to attract this crucial vote. But are women
:00:27. > :00:30.really only interested in subsidised childcare and quotas on the boards
:00:31. > :00:33.of quangos? Also tonight, does support for Home
:00:34. > :00:37.Rule always rise in times of uncertainty? We'll investigate.
:00:38. > :00:43.Good evening. After the SNP made clear one of the main selling points
:00:44. > :00:47.for a Yes vote is a wide- ranging offer on childcare, it didn't take
:00:48. > :00:50.Labour too long to come up with a wide-ranging counter-offer on behalf
:00:51. > :00:52.of the No camp. The Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran is now
:00:53. > :00:57.offering a five-point pledge specifically aimed at women voters.
:00:58. > :01:00.And all of this in the context of polls which suggest the Yes campaign
:01:01. > :01:11.is finding it a great deal harder to convince women than men to take a
:01:12. > :01:16.chance on them. Emma Ailes reports. The race is on to win women's
:01:17. > :01:21.votes, and childcare is the key. Margaret Curran was the latest
:01:22. > :01:27.politician to host a photocall at a nursery. She was there to announce
:01:28. > :01:32.five pledges to women. They are offering more free childcare, with
:01:33. > :01:36.25 hours a week for three and four-year olds, and 15 for
:01:37. > :01:45.vulnerable to-year-olds. Incentives to firms to pay at least ?7.65 an
:01:46. > :01:49.hour. Forcing companies to publish their pay gap in their annual
:01:50. > :01:55.reports, and a 50% quota for all public boards in Scotland to ensure
:01:56. > :01:58.equal representation. Women are resisting this idea that we are
:01:59. > :02:04.somehow a demographic that we have to be ticked off. I think women are
:02:05. > :02:10.much more interested in hearing what practical things can be done to
:02:11. > :02:15.advance their interests, and the offer that we have got is about
:02:16. > :02:22.childcare and low pay, because we think that those are the things that
:02:23. > :02:28.will make women's lives better. According to the polls, the Yes
:02:29. > :02:37.campaign has the bigger hill to climb when it comes to wooing women.
:02:38. > :02:41.They are promising 30 hours a week childcare, increasing the minimum
:02:42. > :02:43.wage by at least inflation every year, reversing reforms that hit
:02:44. > :02:49.women the hardest, tackling the pay gap I implementing an equal pay act,
:02:50. > :02:57.and the public boards to be at least 40% female. At the SNP conference
:02:58. > :03:01.last week, one of these conferences was put into action when Alex
:03:02. > :03:05.Salmond made a mid-speech reshuffle. The cabinet is our board as a
:03:06. > :03:11.country, and women will make up 40% of the members of the Scottish
:03:12. > :03:17.Cabinet. Leading by example, he said critics accused him of the very
:03:18. > :03:21.worst type of tokenism. But is it patronising to suggest that the
:03:22. > :03:25.issues that matter to women are childcare and how many women sit on
:03:26. > :03:31.boards rather than, say, defence, the economy, energy or the EU, or
:03:32. > :03:34.will either side's offering make a dent in the polls?
:03:35. > :03:38.I'm joined now by Kezia Dugdale MSP, who speaks for Labour on childcare
:03:39. > :03:41.as well as her education brief. She's here tonight for the Women
:03:42. > :03:44.Together campaign. And by Carol Fox, of Women for Independence, who's a
:03:45. > :03:52.lawyer specialising in equal pay among other things. Carol Fox, I
:03:53. > :03:55.presume you would accept that the Yes campaign has a problem with
:03:56. > :04:00.women voters at the moment? I don't accept that at all. I have been
:04:01. > :04:05.fighting for women's writes since I had very dark hair indeed. For
:04:06. > :04:09.centuries, women have progressed, but recently in Scotland, we have
:04:10. > :04:13.been fighting equal pay cases against Labour councils. What
:04:14. > :04:18.matters to women is that actions speak louder than words. It is not
:04:19. > :04:22.just about pledges and events. It is having the courage of your
:04:23. > :04:26.convictions. But just about every poll shows that women are much less
:04:27. > :04:32.predisposed to vote yes than men are. If you won't even recognise
:04:33. > :04:37.that that is an issue, it is difficult to see how you would do
:04:38. > :04:40.anything about it. I am taking part in events, speaking to women at
:04:41. > :04:44.weekends and in the evenings, and we want discussed a rectally with women
:04:45. > :04:48.the concerns they have into a dress those concerns about the family, the
:04:49. > :04:56.economy, a whole range of concerns that women are involved in. --
:04:57. > :05:03.discuss directly with women. We want all Scottish women to become
:05:04. > :05:07.involved in the debate. They are making a pledge about equal pay
:05:08. > :05:14.legislation which was brought in 40 years ago. We have had 110 women in
:05:15. > :05:20.Scotland die waiting for equal pay discussions to be resolved. Women
:05:21. > :05:26.have lost faith in the will Labour Party, because they have the power
:05:27. > :05:29.to sort this out, and they don't. They are fighting Labour councils
:05:30. > :05:36.again and again to implement this. I think women want to hear what is
:05:37. > :05:43.actually done in the ground. -- on the ground. But people want change,
:05:44. > :05:48.and wanted delivered. People are concerned about what will happen
:05:49. > :05:51.after a Yes vote, but this is about democracy, equality, a more
:05:52. > :05:56.progressive Scotland, and I firmly believed that with a Yes vote, we
:05:57. > :06:00.will have a more liberal and progressive Scotland. We will be
:06:01. > :06:05.smaller but more powerful with control over our own destiny. I
:06:06. > :06:10.don't believe the pledges outlined by the other party, because they are
:06:11. > :06:20.premised on the fact that Mac I didn't ask you about that. Kezia
:06:21. > :06:24.Dugdale, do you have a theory about why women might be less predisposed
:06:25. > :06:31.at least at the moment is to vote Yes than men? Be very careful not to
:06:32. > :06:37.treat women as one homogenous group who will vote one way or another
:06:38. > :06:42.full up I am simply saying that every poll shows that large numbers
:06:43. > :06:50.of women will vote yes, but many fewer than men. I am prefacing to
:06:51. > :07:00.myself more than anything. Women have a multitude of reasons for why
:07:01. > :07:05.they are voting No in September. I was out tonight, and I met one woman
:07:06. > :07:09.in particular, an SNP voter, who is concerned about how she is a devoted
:07:10. > :07:14.September full top she wants to go with her heart and vote Yes, but she
:07:15. > :07:20.has serious concerns about what the vote means to her family, her
:07:21. > :07:23.future, her pension, her children. She is thinking hard about how to
:07:24. > :07:28.cast her vote. I think women get that this is a complex issue that is
:07:29. > :07:33.about more than just the heart, and they are taking their time and
:07:34. > :07:36.taking it seriously. That seems to be a version of a theory that we
:07:37. > :07:41.often hear, that women are somehow less willing to take a chance, or
:07:42. > :07:50.take a risk. Is that really the case, Kezia Dugdale? That women are
:07:51. > :07:55.less likely to take a chance? You have outlined a version of a story
:07:56. > :07:58.that goes that women are more risk averse, so less likely to vote for
:07:59. > :08:05.independence because of the unknowns. I think that is fair. That
:08:06. > :08:09.is what I regularly hear on the doorsteps. Women are not just
:08:10. > :08:16.concerned about women's issues either. I care about the economic
:08:17. > :08:20.reality of independence, too. This woman was worried about pension, and
:08:21. > :08:26.she wanted to be sure it would still be there in pounds. Whether that is
:08:27. > :08:31.scaremongering or not, it is the real sense in that woman's life
:08:32. > :08:36.about what independence might mean for her family. Until the Yes
:08:37. > :08:42.campaign can deal with those issues, they will still face this. Carol
:08:43. > :08:46.Fox, I understood what you said about equal pay legislation. You
:08:47. > :08:54.appear to be simply denying the evidence of just about every poll
:08:55. > :08:57.that has ever been done on this. If you won't recognise there is an
:08:58. > :09:01.issue here, it is difficult to see how you will address it. There is
:09:02. > :09:07.nothing wrong with admitting what every poll has said. It is just a
:09:08. > :09:12.fact. It is not, because the polls didn't predict what was happening in
:09:13. > :09:15.2011, and with the greatest respect, I am basing my beliefs on 30 years
:09:16. > :09:21.of campaigning and a great deal of experience in reality. I represented
:09:22. > :09:24.15,000 low-paid women in the last six years, achieving millions of
:09:25. > :09:29.pounds of settlement that went to low paid women. But that is
:09:30. > :09:34.irrelevant to what we are discussing. It is highly relevant.
:09:35. > :09:40.It is about actions speaking louder than words, having the courage of
:09:41. > :09:44.your convictions, and making sure that equal pay is delivered. One of
:09:45. > :09:49.the measures is that employers should publish the equal pay gap.
:09:50. > :09:54.Surely it should be about closing it, not just publishing it. We have
:09:55. > :10:02.an example of Labour councils still defending a decade later, and I
:10:03. > :10:05.don't know how to Kezia Dugdale can say that the women who died awaiting
:10:06. > :10:10.the equal pay would have been better together under the current system.
:10:11. > :10:15.Labour councils have failed to deliver a quality, and that is why
:10:16. > :10:18.women councillors are standing back. They want all politicians with the
:10:19. > :10:23.courage of their convictions to deliver, not just on the pledges. We
:10:24. > :10:28.have more work to do to discuss and interact with all women. Kezia
:10:29. > :10:31.Dugdale, is there something patronising about the way that both
:10:32. > :10:34.sides in the referendum campaign are approaching women with these
:10:35. > :10:40.particular packages? Margaret Curran on your side coming up with five
:10:41. > :10:44.pledges to women. I find it very interesting when you talked about
:10:45. > :10:48.the woman you were talking to earlier that none of the issues that
:10:49. > :10:52.concern her with the issues that Margaret Curran was talking about in
:10:53. > :10:58.her pledges to women. Why shouldn't women be equally interested in
:10:59. > :11:04.defence or whether I'm not the pound stays, or whatever? I said that you
:11:05. > :11:12.two seconds ago. Economic realities and independents are probably the
:11:13. > :11:15.big issues. Margaret Curran has been fighting for equality have whole
:11:16. > :11:20.life, and that is what these issues are about. We recognise absolutely
:11:21. > :11:26.that women care passionately about a number of different political
:11:27. > :11:28.issues. I live in Edinburgh, I represent Edinburgh, and Edinburgh
:11:29. > :11:32.Council, Labour lead, the first thing they did when they came in in
:11:33. > :11:35.2011 was to address the equal pay gap, and I recognise there are
:11:36. > :11:41.problems in other councils around the country, and I share Carol
:11:42. > :11:45.Fox's anger and frustration, but in some of those councils where there
:11:46. > :11:51.are problems, Labour have led the way on living wage which is tackling
:11:52. > :11:58.low pay in love away, and the SNP Government have missed that boat. We
:11:59. > :12:04.are running out of time, but I'm curious. Do you find it patronising
:12:05. > :12:07.that both sides in the campaign, not one of the other, but both sides,
:12:08. > :12:12.when they talk about women, talk about issues like childcare. Is
:12:13. > :12:16.there not something rather condescending about that? Not at
:12:17. > :12:21.all, because it is a central concern to many women's lives were now
:12:22. > :12:25.working in juggling childcare. I find it patronising when we don't
:12:26. > :12:29.have enough women on shows like this and talk shows, and I call upon the
:12:30. > :12:31.BBC to make sure that you widen and the guests that you invite to these
:12:32. > :12:37.kind of rogue rams and political programmes, and it is patronising to
:12:38. > :12:43.have women only shows. You should be making sure that all political
:12:44. > :12:48.discussions involve women. I have joined Women for Independence, which
:12:49. > :12:52.is cross-party, not about the SNP, it is about democracy, and I would
:12:53. > :12:56.encourage all women in Scotland to take the opportunity to get
:12:57. > :13:00.involved. This is too important for party politics. Thank you both very
:13:01. > :13:03.much. With me now is Professor John
:13:04. > :13:08.Curtice of Strathclyde University. What are the facts on this. Is there
:13:09. > :13:13.any evidence that, for example, the Scottish government's White papers
:13:14. > :13:18.have attracted any more women to the Yes can?
:13:19. > :13:28.We know that the leader of the nose slide. Mike Riddle is still a large
:13:29. > :13:33.gender gap, if you look at the proportion of men in favour compared
:13:34. > :13:38.to women in favour, there is still a ten point gap, so women are ten
:13:39. > :13:43.points less likely to be in favour of independence than men, and this
:13:44. > :13:47.is after the rise of the support for independence. If we look at the
:13:48. > :13:53.trend over time, it is basically, the support for men and women goes
:13:54. > :13:57.up and down in parallel lines and it has a long-standing gap, and there
:13:58. > :14:06.is no particular sign of its closing. It is there and the
:14:07. > :14:08.cheeses, the yes side have not said anything tonight. The truth is, it
:14:09. > :14:13.is interesting that Alex Salmond focused on one of his key offers,
:14:14. > :14:16.and we should be honest, it was not always clear that politicians were
:14:17. > :14:21.saying we are talking about childcare because it appeals to
:14:22. > :14:26.women, that is often the gloss that people like you and I put on it. The
:14:27. > :14:30.truth is, if you think more broadly, all political parties have become
:14:31. > :14:35.much more interested in childcare, the UK government has policies for
:14:36. > :14:43.tax breaks, the Labour Party has a policy for expanding childcare which
:14:44. > :14:46.is a UK wide policy which they have been looking for Scotland and the
:14:47. > :14:53.SNP have also will become interested in childcare. If it were to have any
:14:54. > :14:56.particular appeal at all, it is the fact they were talking about
:14:57. > :15:00.something that the UK in terms of government and opposition, they have
:15:01. > :15:04.been talking about how difficult it is to persuade people that it is
:15:05. > :15:09.something that is distinctive to independence in Scotland. It is
:15:10. > :15:14.simply a social change in society both north and south. Is there any
:15:15. > :15:17.evidence that the issue is the political parties talk about when
:15:18. > :15:23.they think they are appealing to women like Margaret Curran with her
:15:24. > :15:30.five pledges, actually, they are the issues that influence women? There
:15:31. > :15:33.is no evidence that women would be interested in certain issues rather
:15:34. > :15:38.than others, like that they are interested in issues of childcare or
:15:39. > :15:43.so on and so forth. There interested in issues of the economy and
:15:44. > :15:47.employment, but what looks to be true, the reason why women are less
:15:48. > :15:51.keen on independence is not because they are concerned about different
:15:52. > :15:55.issues and they take a negative view about independence on those issues,
:15:56. > :16:00.but rather, they are concerned like men, above all, about the issue of
:16:01. > :16:09.the economy. It is simply an issue that women are about ten points more
:16:10. > :16:11.pessimistic about the economic consequences of independence than
:16:12. > :16:14.men are. We can argue about being risk averse or not, but one thing
:16:15. > :16:17.that distinguishes women from men is that they are more likely to say,
:16:18. > :16:21.well, I'm not terribly sure what the consequences of independence would
:16:22. > :16:25.be and it is true that both men and women, who feel unsure about the
:16:26. > :16:31.consequences of independence, are less likely to vote for it. Men and
:16:32. > :16:33.women who are pessimistic about the economic consequences of
:16:34. > :16:38.independence are less likely to vote for it. It is simply that there are
:16:39. > :16:41.more women who are pessimistic about the economy and are unsure about the
:16:42. > :16:46.consequences of independence. Now, why they take that view is a
:16:47. > :16:57.difficult case to hear, and we had them talking about stereotypes and
:16:58. > :16:59.risk aversion which is a possible explanation, another possible
:17:00. > :17:02.explanation is that they are more hard-headed and more sceptical about
:17:03. > :17:04.the offer is put by any politicians and a more sceptical about the
:17:05. > :17:07.independence project. Thank you. Now, mixed news today for the
:17:08. > :17:11.economy, with the GDP figures from the end of last year taking a knock
:17:12. > :17:13.partly because of the Grangemouth shutdown, and also a drop in
:17:14. > :17:17.construction. Scotland's economy grew by just 0.2% in the final three
:17:18. > :17:21.months of 2013. Meanwhile growth in the UK in general has been exceeding
:17:22. > :17:23.recent forecasts. With one eye on the referendum, our economics
:17:24. > :17:26.correspondent Colletta Smith has been wondering if you can make a
:17:27. > :17:35.connection between the state of the economy and support for home rule.
:17:36. > :17:39.Despite the ups and downs in today's figures, Scotland's economy
:17:40. > :17:43.has been improving in the last year. Fewer people are unemployed,
:17:44. > :17:48.more people are in work and the economy is growing. You might not
:17:49. > :17:52.been feeling it over the last couple of years, but if you look around
:17:53. > :17:55.now, you can see one of the main drivers behind that economic growth.
:17:56. > :18:00.We have been keeping our wallets away for the last five years, but
:18:01. > :18:06.now, we're starting spend again. We are pleased to see that retail has
:18:07. > :18:10.done well in the GDP statistics, but we do sense that with some of the
:18:11. > :18:13.retailers in particular, they are showing good results. But it is
:18:14. > :18:19.something we are cautious about because we want to see much more
:18:20. > :18:23.growth in manufacturing and particularly in exports and
:18:24. > :18:28.international trade. Spending has boosted the GDP figures for the end
:18:29. > :18:32.of last year, but there is a simple reason why lots of us have not been
:18:33. > :18:37.feeling any better off. It has been getting more and more expensive to
:18:38. > :18:40.pay for stuff and since 2010, wages have not been rising nearly as
:18:41. > :18:45.quickly as the price of goods. But today, we heard that wages have been
:18:46. > :18:50.going up just as quickly as inflation. Which means that more of
:18:51. > :18:58.us can start to feel the benefits of a growing economy. But does an
:18:59. > :19:03.improving economy mean that a yes vote is more or less likely in
:19:04. > :19:07.September's referendum? The numbers from the office of National
:19:08. > :19:12.statistics start in 1955 and they show the size of the UK economy, so
:19:13. > :19:15.let's take a look at key economic moments and see what was happening
:19:16. > :19:24.within Scottish National is at the time. In 1967, Winnie Ewing with the
:19:25. > :19:30.hammer total by-election for the SNP -- win the Hamilton by-election.
:19:31. > :19:39.Hamilton has made history tonight. In 1963, the economy takes a way up
:19:40. > :19:42.to 92%, and then drops down to a minus figure. In that time,
:19:43. > :19:47.devolution is recommended for Scotland and the SNP win 11 seats at
:19:48. > :19:53.Westminster, the most they have ever had. At party headquarters the point
:19:54. > :20:00.with sober optimism to the fact that their support is nationwide. The
:20:01. > :20:05.next big fluxes in 1979 which was the time of the first referendum on
:20:06. > :20:11.devolution. Scroll forward to 1989 and the next bomb is the time of the
:20:12. > :20:16.poll tax which saw a reinvigoration in Scottish National of them. We
:20:17. > :20:21.want an army of people that can pay the poll tax, who are able to pay
:20:22. > :20:25.the poll tax but will not pay the poll tax because they refused to bow
:20:26. > :20:35.their need to a piece of English Tory legislation. The SNP did not do
:20:36. > :20:39.too much to stand out from the crowd with the support for Scottish
:20:40. > :20:43.devolution in 2002, but their victory in 2007 came on the cusp of
:20:44. > :20:49.what we now know to be one of the biggest recessions in UK history and
:20:50. > :20:54.their strength and a lateral win came in 2011, right at the time of
:20:55. > :21:03.continuing economic austerity and tough times. -- their strength in an
:21:04. > :21:07.electoral win. Tonight we have shown that not only can we win in Glasgow,
:21:08. > :21:14.we can hold seats in Glasgow as well! It seems that historically,
:21:15. > :21:18.the greatest political achievement of the SNP have, at times of great
:21:19. > :21:24.economic change over a short period of time, with boom and bust. For
:21:25. > :21:31.Westminster elections in particular, the economy has been a reasonably
:21:32. > :21:38.good guide to the SNP's fortunes. Does that make a yes vote more less
:21:39. > :21:41.likely September? Scottishness is overwhelmingly the choice of the
:21:42. > :21:47.Scots in Scotland, and they like to see the Scottish economy doing well.
:21:48. > :21:51.A lot of people will move towards different political positions on the
:21:52. > :21:55.basis of the feel-good factor that comes from that. How many, remains
:21:56. > :22:02.to be seen, but often, people say on the doorsteps, my head says no, my
:22:03. > :22:05.heart says yes, and I guess that improving economic conditions have
:22:06. > :22:11.to get the head and the heart are lined. You might say the chair of
:22:12. > :22:14.the academics free yes is likely to say that, and this is a very
:22:15. > :22:19.economic heavy reading of history, but there is still five months ago
:22:20. > :22:23.and the only prediction we can make about September's economic
:22:24. > :22:28.conditions is that no one is very good at predicting recent economic
:22:29. > :22:32.twist and turns. A quick look at the newspapers,
:22:33. > :22:39.starting with the Scotsman, the picture of the Korean ferry that
:22:40. > :22:43.went down and the headline, power cut its 100,000 homes and
:22:44. > :22:47.businesses, a major power failure in the North of Scotland. Inverness has
:22:48. > :22:52.power again now. The Daily Telegraph, the Scots misled by the
:22:53. > :23:03.wealth campaign by the referendum. That's all from me.
:23:04. > :23:10.Mixed fortunes this Easter weekend, a mixed bag in the morning but some
:23:11. > :23:15.brightness across southern and eastern areas. Cloudy and breezy
:23:16. > :23:19.with showery rain. Many places will have a dry day. Some cloud in the
:23:20. > :23:24.afternoon and the odd shower with some late brightness and increasing
:23:25. > :23:28.sunshine across Scotland and in the afternoon. Some blustery showers
:23:29. > :23:36.across the North of Scotland and a cool breeze, 1011 degrees. Some
:23:37. > :23:39.patchy rain in northern England and some dry weather outside. Some
:23:40. > :23:42.sunshine across the south-east and here, some warm weather and somebody
:23:43. > :23:46.somewhere will not be far off 20 degrees. Some cloud Democrats
:23:47. > :23:47.Southern counties and