:00:09. > :00:12.Riots on the streets of Athens, as protests show the extent of Greek
:00:12. > :00:16.resistance to the medicine they are supposed to take in exchange for
:00:16. > :00:22.the rescue of their economy. The protests are authentically
:00:22. > :00:26.Greek, the consequences may be much, much wider. This is a problem not
:00:26. > :00:29.just for the riot police and the Greek Government. Because what
:00:29. > :00:33.you're looking at here is the frontline of the world's financial
:00:33. > :00:39.system. It's six months since the start of
:00:39. > :00:43.the Arab uprisings. In Libya, NATO fights to save civilians from the
:00:43. > :00:47.wrath of a dictator. In Syria, NATO does nothing.
:00:47. > :00:52.We ask the Foreign Secretary if British foreign policy is now being
:00:52. > :00:56.made by Russia, China and tyrannies in the Middle East.
:00:56. > :01:00.Both the financial crisis and the Arab Spring caught us by sur pri,
:01:01. > :01:04.but they shouldn't have done. We speak to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who
:01:04. > :01:08.says what he calls Black Swan events only catch us out because we
:01:08. > :01:13.are looking at them the wrong way. There is a deep lunar eclipse
:01:13. > :01:23.happening. We summon one of the nation's favourite astronomers.
:01:23. > :01:25.
:01:25. > :01:29.When you think about space it is like dead big!
:01:29. > :01:39.Punch-up, tear gas and a Government in crisis. Opposition to Greece's
:01:39. > :01:44.attempts to comply with the terms of the 100 billion euro loan is
:01:44. > :01:48.running high. We shouldn't get pulled along with the news, the
:01:48. > :01:53.mess the country is in was largely caused by pack of lies told by
:01:53. > :01:58.Government. But today's protests and political chaos in Greece, do
:01:58. > :02:08.have potential ramifications right across Europe, and perhaps beyond.
:02:08. > :02:08.
:02:08. > :02:18.Beware of Greeks taking gifts. Our economics editor is in Athens.
:02:18. > :02:20.
:02:20. > :02:28.It started early, the trade unions converged on central Athens and the
:02:28. > :02:32.rest of Greece shut down. Today's general strike pulled, say its
:02:32. > :02:37.organisers, one quarter of the Greek population on to the streets.
:02:37. > :02:46.In Athens there were taxi drivers, hotel porters, dockers, even
:02:46. > :02:51.doctors. I believe that many people will die. You do? Yes, I'm a doctor,
:02:51. > :02:57.I'm a cardiologist, I see every day in the hospital coming more and
:02:57. > :03:02.more poor people and the hospitals want money, the public hospitals
:03:02. > :03:06.want money in order to enter the people in the hospital.
:03:06. > :03:10.But that's just the result of the first round of austerity. It is the
:03:10. > :03:20.second round, demanded by the European Union, that's made the
:03:20. > :03:20.
:03:20. > :03:25.Greek protest movement change gear. In the square at the very gates of
:03:25. > :03:28.parliament, the word they are chanting is simply "Greece".
:03:29. > :03:34.These are the Facebook youth, camped here for 22 days, not just
:03:34. > :03:37.the left, but nationalists and some right-wingers. What's obvious, here
:03:37. > :03:42.on the frontline, between the police and the protestors, is here
:03:42. > :03:47.in Athens it is no longer a matter of class or left against right, but
:03:47. > :03:54.here on the square, it is simply a question of Greece versus the IMF,
:03:54. > :04:01.versus the EU, versus the rest of the world.
:04:01. > :04:10.They are angry at the media, angrier still at the police. And
:04:10. > :04:16.soon, the anger ignites. While Greeks are getting used to this,
:04:16. > :04:21.what you are seeing here is a new level of social crisis. So almost
:04:21. > :04:25.from nowhere the police just responded to a bit of missile
:04:25. > :04:32.throwing by firing tear gas and everybody's run away, but this is
:04:32. > :04:36.only the start of what looks like being a long day for the Greek riot
:04:36. > :04:44.police, and protestors, this is just the front, this is just the
:04:44. > :04:48.beginning. This was the day the Prime Minister
:04:48. > :04:51.chose to launch his new austerity plan. He briefed the President on
:04:51. > :05:00.50 billion euros worth of privatisation, public spending cuts
:05:00. > :05:04.worth 10% of GDP, massive wage cuts, and massive tax increases. But
:05:04. > :05:11.Papandreou's popularity is collapsing, his majority in
:05:11. > :05:14.parliament evaporating, and outside parliament, this.
:05:14. > :05:18.Though anarchists took the lead in the violence, every part of Greek
:05:18. > :05:23.society was in the square. The trade unionists stood and braved
:05:23. > :05:30.the tear ga, so did the youth, so did the mums and dads. But their
:05:30. > :05:39.patience is wearing thin. First of all, nobody asked us. We didn't
:05:39. > :05:45.vote for that. Papandreou fooled us. We are not thieves, we are very
:05:45. > :05:51.decent people, we work hard. We think that we're part of an
:05:51. > :05:55.experiment. They gave everything out, maybe they have sold the
:05:55. > :06:01.Acropolis and we don't know yet. What they are fighting for is for
:06:02. > :06:04.Greece to refuse to pay its debts. This is a problem not just for the
:06:04. > :06:08.riot police and the Greek Government. What you are looking at
:06:08. > :06:11.here is the frontline of the world's financial system. Many
:06:11. > :06:17.people in authority believe if Greece defaults on its debt, as the
:06:17. > :06:24.people here want it to, that will echo across the world, in the same
:06:24. > :06:30.way Lehman Brothers did. As night fall, the fighting spreads
:06:30. > :06:33.into the side streets, and for the protest organisers a single aim.
:06:33. > :06:38.The immediate aim was to keep all these people together for all their
:06:38. > :06:43.difference that is they want to see the Government out, and they want
:06:43. > :06:49.to see the austerity measures paused and reversed. This is what
:06:49. > :06:53.unites all these people. The people have some real anger about the
:06:53. > :06:58.deterioration of the social conditions of their lives. So this
:06:58. > :07:02.was the immediate thing, the first thing that people want to see. From
:07:02. > :07:05.the morning after it would be a thousand different views.
:07:05. > :07:15.that's the problem. Those on the streets today know what they are
:07:15. > :07:15.
:07:15. > :07:19.against, but if they win, what comes after is anybody's guess.
:07:19. > :07:23.Paul Mason is in Athens, we have corrected the communications
:07:23. > :07:27.difficulties. Will the Government survive there? Mr Papandreou spent
:07:27. > :07:32.the day trying to form a national unity Government with his political
:07:32. > :07:35.opponents. He has seen his own parliamentary majority evaporate as
:07:35. > :07:38.people's opposition to the measures have grown. The opposition, the new
:07:39. > :07:44.democratic party of the right refused to form the Government. So
:07:44. > :07:48.we just don't know. It is a big problem, as well this, for the
:07:48. > :07:51.European Union. Because up until now n this crisis the one permanent
:07:51. > :07:55.thing, the one thing we thought we could rely on was the Papandreou
:07:55. > :07:58.Government. We thought the European Union could have internal
:07:58. > :08:02.differences, it is always talking to a Government with parliamentary
:08:02. > :08:06.majority. Now that is not the case. This is purely, I think, the result
:08:06. > :08:12.of the pressure we saw there on the streets. People are absolutely
:08:12. > :08:18.furious about the existing measures, let alone the 10% of GDP cut in
:08:18. > :08:26.public spending, they are now being asked to take. Why are people
:08:26. > :08:31.beyond Greece so worried? Jeremy, the reason is, because so much of
:08:31. > :08:35.the European banking system is exposed to greet debt, both Greek
:08:35. > :08:39.Government debt, Greek banking debt and Greek private debt. If this
:08:39. > :08:43.goes, I understand the British Treasury, the Bank of England, the
:08:43. > :08:47.European Central Bank believe there is a non-negligible chance that it
:08:47. > :08:50.comes into some kind of a Lehman Brothers situation. There are banks
:08:50. > :08:54.in Europe that may not be able to stand up to the collapse of the
:08:54. > :08:58.Greek banking system, that would surely follow a default. On top of
:08:58. > :09:02.that we have the problem of the EU, eurozone rules themselves. They
:09:02. > :09:05.would be completely breached. The credibility of the European Central
:09:05. > :09:10.Bank would be pretty much shot to pieces if they allowed Greece to go
:09:10. > :09:14.the way the demonstrators on the streets want. So there are already
:09:14. > :09:17.people in the investment community trying to price in what would a
:09:17. > :09:24.second credit crunch actually mean for the world economy. The world
:09:24. > :09:30.economy, as we know, is not recovering very well. The Asia and
:09:30. > :09:34.USA is faltering. The last thing we need is for another credit event.
:09:34. > :09:38.There were more reports of refugees fleeing President Assad's troops in
:09:38. > :09:42.Syria today. There is no talk at all of Britain or France or any
:09:42. > :09:44.other NATO power intervening to protect them. Even the completely
:09:44. > :09:50.toothless resolution the two countries proposed at the United
:09:50. > :09:54.Nations has got nowhere. In Libya, meanwhile, the rebels still, 12
:09:54. > :09:58.weeks after Britain and France committed forces there, have made
:09:58. > :10:02.no breakthrough. The MoD claimed this country can carry on bombing
:10:02. > :10:06.there indefinitely. What then, are we trying to aheave in the Arab
:10:06. > :10:14.world. Before we hear the Foreign Secretary's answer to the question,
:10:14. > :10:18.here is Mark Urban's take. Six weeks of Middle East turmoil has
:10:18. > :10:22.undermined old certainties, that the United States can police the
:10:22. > :10:27.region or keep its clients in power. Has the cost of intervention grown
:10:27. > :10:34.too great for western countries. Britain has its own historical
:10:34. > :10:39.perspective on waning influence. Of course Britain has long grown used
:10:39. > :10:42.to the indignaties of being a faded world power, it has relied on
:10:42. > :10:45.others, and alliance, particularly the United States to enhance its
:10:45. > :10:50.influence around the world. These days, pretty much everybody in the
:10:50. > :10:55.western family of nations is in recession, and cutting back, and
:10:55. > :11:01.the decline in their influence in the Middle East, be it economically,
:11:01. > :11:07.diplomatically, or militarily, seems to be palpable.
:11:07. > :11:09.In the Security Council they were meant to vote this week on a UK-
:11:09. > :11:15.French resolution on Syria, but Russia and China made clear they
:11:15. > :11:19.would veto it, even in this form, diplomatic action has failed. Not
:11:19. > :11:24.least because other countries are often sceptical that the US or
:11:24. > :11:28.Europe has the answers. I think what we are seeing is the west no
:11:28. > :11:33.longer has the moral high ground in the way that perhaps it did in the
:11:33. > :11:38.Middle East. That is partly because of Iraq. Partly because we're seen
:11:38. > :11:44.as withdrawing from Afghanistan. Above all, it goes back to Israel,
:11:44. > :11:50.Palestine, we cannot really preach to the Arab world, we cannot really
:11:50. > :11:55.be seen to have the moral force we need, while we are fail to go
:11:55. > :12:01.address the problem of Palestine. While the Europeans blame America
:12:01. > :12:06.for failing to deal with those issues, the US is often outspoken
:12:06. > :12:15.in rely. Last week the outgoing US Defence Secretary blasted Europe
:12:15. > :12:21.for not pulling its weight in NATO. Future US political leaders, those
:12:21. > :12:25.for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was
:12:25. > :12:33.for me, may not consider the return from being part of NATO worth the
:12:33. > :12:39.cost. I have spelled out a dim and dismal future for the transatlantic
:12:39. > :12:46.alliance, it is possible but not inevitable. 10 years ago NATO
:12:46. > :12:50.counted for less than half of NATO spending, now it pays for 70%. That
:12:50. > :12:55.is as a result of plunging European budgets.
:12:55. > :13:00.NATO secretary general, in London today, argue that is it is up to
:13:00. > :13:08.Europe to race its game and - raise its game and keep the alliance
:13:08. > :13:11.relevant. NATO is more needed and wanted than ever, but I share
:13:11. > :13:17.Secretary Gates' concerns about declining defence budgets in a
:13:17. > :13:22.number of allied countries. If we are to accomplish our security
:13:22. > :13:26.mission in the future wrecks need proper investments. Take away the
:13:26. > :13:32.US and NATO capabilities don't look that impressive. Italy has 130
:13:32. > :13:37.modern jet fighters, the United Arab Emirates has 142. The royal
:13:37. > :13:42.Saudi Air Force, with 250 modern combat aircraft, is similar in size
:13:42. > :13:46.to the RAF. The Libyan operation is held up by many as a model for
:13:47. > :13:52.future NATO action. But with America taking a supporting role,
:13:52. > :13:58.its European allies have found it a strain sustaining the bombing.
:13:58. > :14:04.is really a strength of our alliance, to demonstrate that the
:14:04. > :14:08.Europeans can also take the lead. We have been used in the past to
:14:08. > :14:13.having the United States in the lead in all major military
:14:13. > :14:18.operations. In Libya we see European allies and Canada and
:14:18. > :14:22.partners in the region, providing the majority of the assets, and
:14:22. > :14:26.that is really a clear demonstration of solidarity. Given
:14:27. > :14:33.what you have said about falling European defence budgets, your
:14:33. > :14:38.concerns that you have expressed, is it really feasible that the non-
:14:38. > :14:43.US side of NATO increasingly can take this role. This is only
:14:43. > :14:46.feasible if the Europeans step up to the plate and increase defence
:14:46. > :14:52.investment, that is my clear message. With thousands of Syrian
:14:52. > :14:54.refugees now in neighbouring Turkey, both the Turkish and Iranian
:14:54. > :15:00.Governments are becoming increasingly vocal about that
:15:00. > :15:03.crisis. With Iran supporting the Al-Assad regime, and Turkey
:15:03. > :15:08.critical. Just as Syria itself appears to have been emboldened by
:15:08. > :15:12.the lack of an effective western policy, so these neighbours have
:15:12. > :15:17.become more assertive. Well, we're seeing that certainly with Iran, I
:15:17. > :15:21.don't think Iran is driving events, but Iran is certainly exploiting
:15:21. > :15:26.events. Turkey is pursuing a very vigorous independent foreign policy
:15:26. > :15:32.across the Middle East, a sort of neo-Ottoman policy, across the
:15:32. > :15:35.Middle East, and central Asia, we will see other players as well.
:15:35. > :15:38.We're entering extremely difficult period. It doesn't mean we won't
:15:38. > :15:43.succeed, it doesn't mean that the present period of scratchiness
:15:43. > :15:47.won't come to an end. It will require imaginative, engaged
:15:47. > :15:52.loadership of a very high order from the - leadership, of a very
:15:52. > :15:57.high order, from the United States. It is not just about being top dog,
:15:57. > :16:01.it is about practising an engaged foreign policy. The fate of Libya
:16:01. > :16:04.undecided, there is little appetite for further military action. But
:16:04. > :16:08.the failure of the Syrian UN resolution, and the difficulty even
:16:09. > :16:15.agreeing common western views on the most desirable outcome force
:16:15. > :16:19.the be a rab spring, show how hard it has - Arab Spring, shows how has
:16:19. > :16:28.it has become to exert any positive western action. I spoke to the
:16:28. > :16:31.Foreign Secretary about some of these issues? Foreign Secretary,
:16:31. > :16:35.Foreign Secretary, will you allow President Assad to go on killing
:16:35. > :16:38.his people? We have taken the measures we can, which has included
:16:38. > :16:44.EU sanctions on 23 individual, including President Assad himself.
:16:44. > :16:47.To answer your question directly, it is not of course within our
:16:47. > :16:52.control or direct power to stop what is happening in Syria now.
:16:52. > :16:57.What is the difference between a mother and children fleeing Al-
:16:57. > :17:01.Assad's thugs and a mother and child fleeing Gaddafi's thugs?
:17:01. > :17:05.is about taking action about it. In the case of Libya the Arab League
:17:06. > :17:10.issued call for help, to the rest of the world and the United Nations
:17:10. > :17:13.Security Council. The UN Security Council carried a resolution
:17:13. > :17:17.authorising the protection of civilians. No such attempts have
:17:17. > :17:21.happened in the case of Syria. attempt to get a mere form of words
:17:22. > :17:25.at the UN Security Council has failed, hasn't it? It hasn't failed.
:17:25. > :17:30.Alain Juppe appears to think it has failed? I'm continuing to work on
:17:30. > :17:34.it. It is true we haven't managed to pass that so far. A country like
:17:34. > :17:37.Russia. This is one of the material points here, Russia has an alliance
:17:37. > :17:40.with Syria, a much closer relationship with Syria than was
:17:40. > :17:44.the case with Colonel Gaddafi's Libya. Of course such measures are
:17:44. > :17:47.much harder to get through the Security Council. Why are our
:17:47. > :17:51.diplomats so ineffective? diplomats were brilliantly
:17:51. > :17:54.effective. They failed with this, it was a mere form of words, it
:17:55. > :18:00.didn't propose any action at all? It is not a mere form of words. It
:18:00. > :18:04.calls on the Syrian Government to recognise legitimate grievances, to
:18:04. > :18:08.give access and co-operation to the UN High Commisioner on human rights,
:18:08. > :18:12.and to give access to the Internet. It is more than words. Nor is the
:18:12. > :18:18.story of trying to secure a resolution over. We have some of
:18:18. > :18:22.the finest diplomats in the world, whose achievement in drafting and
:18:22. > :18:26.passing the resolution on Libya was widely acknowledged across the
:18:26. > :18:30.world, as a major diplomatic triumph. What you are saying is
:18:30. > :18:36.that British policy on a country like Syria is determined by the
:18:36. > :18:41.Arab League, and Russia? I think we have to get used to the idea that
:18:41. > :18:44.our activity and our actions in the world will be predominantly as part
:18:44. > :18:48.of international alliances. And must be based on international law.
:18:48. > :18:53.This is a very, very important point, I have stressed it
:18:53. > :18:57.throughout the Libya crisis is. We must stay within the UN resolutions
:18:57. > :19:01.and retain the legal and moral standing we have from that, in the
:19:01. > :19:05.absence of resolutions on other nations, clearly we are not able to
:19:05. > :19:10.take such parallel actions. It is an accurate summary to say British
:19:10. > :19:14.policy in these areas is circumscribed by the Arab League,
:19:14. > :19:18.Russia and China? It is accurate to say that western powers operating
:19:18. > :19:24.in the Middle East should do so in alliance f they do it, with Arab
:19:24. > :19:26.nation, with the Muslim world, in co-operation with the Arab League,
:19:26. > :19:31.with the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, and that
:19:31. > :19:34.unilateral western intervention is unlikely to produce long-term
:19:34. > :19:40.desirable results. You have described the Arab Spring as the
:19:40. > :19:49.most important event in the 21st century thus far. Are we really
:19:49. > :19:54.going to allow it to be obstructed by some tinpot dictator in Syria?
:19:54. > :19:58.It is not our objective to allow things to be obstructed by tinpot
:19:58. > :20:02.dictators, we will act where we can effectively. Just because we can't
:20:02. > :20:06.do everything, doesn't mean we shouldn't do something. It is not
:20:06. > :20:11.just about military action. Let's talk about military action in Lybia,
:20:11. > :20:16.it is going on for what 12 weeks now, how much longer will it go on?
:20:16. > :20:20.We are not setting a deadline. It will go on for as long as it takes
:20:20. > :20:27.to implemented the UN resolutions, it is sustainable he indefinitely
:20:27. > :20:31.on our part. How is it being funded? From the Treasury reserve,
:20:31. > :20:34.when there are accurate costings available we will present that to
:20:35. > :20:39.parliament. You don't know what it is costing? When we have the
:20:39. > :20:42.accurate costings we will put them to parliament. It cost as great
:20:42. > :20:46.deal of money. It is not the budget of the Foreign Office, it is within
:20:46. > :20:50.the Ministry of Defence, predominantly. But met from the
:20:50. > :20:53.Treasury reserve. So we will account for all of that, of course,
:20:53. > :20:59.to parliament. No doubt you will account for it. I will make the
:20:59. > :21:07.point about the costing, this is the crucial point, the cost of
:21:07. > :21:10.failing to take action would be far greater than if we did. The tax-
:21:10. > :21:14.payers of the country are entitled to know how much of their money is
:21:14. > :21:17.being spent on this action? We will not give a day-to-day bulletin and
:21:17. > :21:22.it is not possible to do so. rough figure would do, how many
:21:22. > :21:26.hundreds of millions? We will give all of that in due course. What is
:21:26. > :21:34.the end objective in that part of the world? The objective of our
:21:34. > :21:37.military action is to enforce the UN resolution. What are we trying
:21:37. > :21:41.to achieve? The military objection is enforcing the UN resolution a
:21:41. > :21:45.ceasefire in Libya that allows a political process, the Libyan
:21:45. > :21:48.people to determine their own future. That will happen with the
:21:48. > :21:51.departure from power of Colonel Gaddafi. While that is not an aim
:21:51. > :21:58.of the resolution, clearly a settlement in Libya is only
:21:58. > :22:01.possible on that basis S our broader objective, is to create a
:22:01. > :22:05.partnership between countries like our's, and countries in North
:22:05. > :22:09.Africa, where they are able to advance to strong, political
:22:09. > :22:13.institutions, in a free society, to a strong market-based economy,
:22:13. > :22:16.ultimately, in my view, to be in an economic area with the European
:22:16. > :22:22.Union. Not in the European Union, they are not European countries,
:22:22. > :22:25.but in an economic area. Would we like to see all the countries as
:22:25. > :22:32.democracies? I don't think we should impose a western model of
:22:32. > :22:38.democracy. What I very much gather in Cairo, talking to young people
:22:38. > :22:42.there, in many ways they want our help, they don't want us to say the
:22:42. > :22:47.Westminster parliament must be replicated in Cairo or Tunisia. Do
:22:48. > :22:51.we believe that nations throughout the world would be better in a
:22:51. > :22:55.democratic state, compatible with their own culture, yes, of course
:22:55. > :22:58.we do. Including Saudi Arabia? all nations in the world. We
:22:58. > :23:03.believe human rights are universal. That is an argument we have with
:23:03. > :23:07.China, that is a discussion we have with Saudi Arabia, it doesn't mean
:23:07. > :23:12.we can immediately bring about change. Why were we caught so by
:23:12. > :23:18.surprise by what happened? I think the whole world, to be fair, was
:23:18. > :23:22.caught by surprise, by the timing of the Arab Spring. It wasn't
:23:22. > :23:26.possible to forecast, even for the Governments in those countries,
:23:26. > :23:31.when they would come to a head. They are leaderless revolutions,
:23:31. > :23:37.they are not a plot to detect. This is hundreds of thousands of people
:23:37. > :23:40.on Facebook taking to the streets, acting together in way no
:23:40. > :23:46.Intelligence Service, even in those countries, could be aware of in
:23:46. > :23:50.advance. Can I ask you the riots seen in Greece today. I wonder
:23:50. > :23:55.looking at them you have any sense is here perhaps is a movement afoot
:23:55. > :24:00.that may have a capacity to surprise us, in the way that the
:24:00. > :24:04.Arab Spring surprised everyone? think, I don't want to jump to
:24:04. > :24:08.conclusions about it. I'm not going to hold you to it? But I think
:24:08. > :24:12.there is something in your question, that there is enormous discontent
:24:12. > :24:17.among young people, particularly in some of the southern European
:24:17. > :24:20.nations, about long-term unemployment, about the extent of
:24:20. > :24:23.economic problems. We will see more broadly than the Arab Spring, and I
:24:23. > :24:28.don't just mean in Europe, we will see the ability of people to
:24:28. > :24:32.communicate with each other, through social networking sites and
:24:32. > :24:35.so on, producing political movements for change, not just in
:24:35. > :24:39.the Arab world. Foreign Secretary, thank you.
:24:39. > :24:45.The two events we have discussed so far tonight, the Arab Spring and
:24:45. > :24:51.the utter shambles that is the Greek economy. Both qualify as
:24:51. > :24:56.Black Swan events, the phrase was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
:24:56. > :25:02.along with the economist, Noreena Hertz. Black Swan veents are rare,
:25:02. > :25:06.have a big - events are rare, and have a big impact. Christmas is a
:25:06. > :25:11.Black Swan event for the turkey, but not the butcher who chops its
:25:11. > :25:16.head off. We need to be the butcher not the turkey!
:25:16. > :25:21.Black Swan events appear to come from nowhere. But could we predict
:25:21. > :25:27.them, should we be surprised when they do happen? Governments seek to
:25:27. > :25:32.avoid risk, they prop up dictators, they protect banks. But does trying
:25:32. > :25:38.to create an ordered world, or pretending has standards don't
:25:38. > :25:42.exist, serve to make systems more fragile. A dictatorship by its
:25:42. > :25:46.nature suppresses dissent, like a build-up of steam, if you try to
:25:46. > :25:52.contain pressure eventually there is an explosion. The crash, the
:25:52. > :26:00.Arab Spring, the 1979 revolution in Iran, by this analysis, were All
:26:00. > :26:05.Black black swan moments. What we witnessed this year, in Tunisia,
:26:05. > :26:09.and Libya, is simply what happens when constrained systems explode.
:26:09. > :26:15.By this theory, we really shouldn't have been surprised.
:26:15. > :26:20.Nassim Nicholas Taleb joins us now from New York, Noreena Hertz, the
:26:20. > :26:23.economist, is here in the studio. Let's start with you, Nassim
:26:23. > :26:31.Nicholas Taleb, how could we not have been surprised by the Arab
:26:31. > :26:35.Spring? Well, the system was fragile, and the seven ore eight
:26:35. > :26:39.sources of fragility - or eight sources of fragility, for me the
:26:39. > :26:44.first one was the banking system, and still is fragile, it was like a
:26:44. > :26:47.bomb waiting to go off, an accident waiting to happen. When a bridge is
:26:48. > :26:53.fragile you don't waste your time trying to predict which truck will
:26:53. > :27:02.break it, you should spend your money on this structure. The second
:27:02. > :27:06.one is, of course, and the main one, is what we have with these regime,
:27:06. > :27:13.propped unofficially for the United States, for the sake of stability.
:27:14. > :27:19.Just like banks were, we had Alan Greenspan, and on your side, we had
:27:19. > :27:25.the Labour Government, they wanted to eliminate boom and bust, and
:27:25. > :27:30.they pushed the risks in the tails, the less visible parts of life. And
:27:30. > :27:35.the thing explodes. We had that in these systems, in fact, in the
:27:35. > :27:41.Black Swan itself, I spoke about Syria and Saudi Arabia, saying here
:27:41. > :27:44.you have two kind of countries, in Italy they have loads of different
:27:44. > :27:49.Governments, people hate each other openly. It looks unstable because
:27:49. > :27:52.they change Governments. Here you have Syria with the same Government
:27:52. > :27:58.for 40 years and Saudi Arabia with the same family for a century. So
:27:58. > :28:04.which one is more stable, visibly Italy is much more stable than
:28:04. > :28:10.Saudi Arabia, it is bottom up, it has a lot of noise, it vibrates,
:28:10. > :28:14.and Saudi Arabia did not. The US Government did not learn that
:28:14. > :28:20.lesson with the Shah of Iran. Trying to oppress the whole country.
:28:20. > :28:24.Locked what happened in Iran in 1978 with the revolution. For me it
:28:24. > :28:28.was way too obvious an answer given I was Lebanese and I was explaining
:28:28. > :28:31.anybody who would listen to me that Lebanon is vastly more stable than
:28:31. > :28:35.most of these countries. We had our war, and everybody is represented
:28:35. > :28:44.in the Government, if you think the distance between the current regime
:28:44. > :28:50.and the next regieme, it is minimal. One person with a beard, you know,
:28:50. > :28:56.and the cabinet is minimal. Let me interrupt, what do you make of this
:28:56. > :29:00.theory? I think we could have anticipated the Arab Spring if we
:29:00. > :29:04.looked at what was going on in a very different way. We relied on a
:29:04. > :29:10.small group of experts, the intelligence experts who did miss
:29:10. > :29:18.it. If we look at what Al-Jazeera was talking about, in summer 2010
:29:18. > :29:24.they had a report predicting the uprising in Egypt. If we had
:29:24. > :29:29.monitored The Tweets of Arab youth in the lead up to the protests, we
:29:29. > :29:33.would have seen an increase in protest network. That is common
:29:34. > :29:37.with a lot of Black Swans, we are relying on experts or a dominant
:29:37. > :29:43.narrative or prediction about the future, that it will follow a
:29:43. > :29:48.linear path, that actually aren't right. Agree and disagree with the
:29:48. > :29:52.analysis, saying after the fact you can always find precursor signs, at
:29:52. > :29:58.the time they were not that obvious. What is essential is not look at
:29:58. > :30:03.signs but look at fragility. What is fragile and what is not, what is
:30:03. > :30:07.fragile it needs to be fixed. It is understandable, though is it not,
:30:07. > :30:10.that Governments seek stability. You can't have an international
:30:10. > :30:15.training system without agreed rules. Governments seek stability
:30:15. > :30:20.in the Governments they deal with, which is why they supported people
:30:20. > :30:26.like Mubarak in Egypt. This is why I called that sudden dough
:30:26. > :30:33.stability, in mylar writings. It is sort of like saying I would like to
:30:33. > :30:40.reach a destination on time, but if I drive 300 miles an hourly never
:30:40. > :30:45.get there. I think you're right that the west tends to support the
:30:45. > :30:55.dictatorial regimes and traded off democracy and human rights in the
:30:55. > :30:56.
:30:56. > :31:00.process. I wonder if you are perhaps making too much of a simple
:31:00. > :31:04.situation out of it. Dictatorships are putting a lid on the society,
:31:04. > :31:09.that is bubbling over and that is the reason why we are seeing
:31:09. > :31:13.protests. Are there not a whole multipolicity of factors involved
:31:13. > :31:18.here. There was rising food prices and unemployment, there were new
:31:18. > :31:21.food technologies that allowed people to interact through Facebook
:31:21. > :31:25.and twitter. There was a whole configuration of different events
:31:25. > :31:34.happening at once. Even when it is hot people are more likely to go
:31:34. > :31:38.out in protest. There is a lot happening at once, not just the
:31:38. > :31:44.political regime. I don't like the ad hoc explanations, in Indonesia
:31:44. > :31:52.the uprising was called about food. Par rain is a much richer country.
:31:52. > :31:59.We can't stop looking at catalysts as causes. But this is about
:31:59. > :32:06.dictator s rule anything 17ths. Dictatorships can be enduring. You
:32:07. > :32:11.had a hell of black swan at the time of it? That is not the point.
:32:11. > :32:15.The point is the democratic system is vastly noiseer, but vastly more
:32:15. > :32:20.stable than the system with a dictatorship, particularly in the
:32:20. > :32:25.modern day as you are mentioning. The last thing we need is engage in
:32:25. > :32:32.that catalyst has caused confusion and start looking for the precursor
:32:32. > :32:36.signs after the fact. Look for the key is that we have unnatural
:32:36. > :32:42.regimes today, we are not in the 16th century. We have
:32:42. > :32:45.telecommunication and a lot of other things. We have trade, and a
:32:45. > :32:51.very extensive trade between countries. You cannot have a
:32:51. > :32:56.country in which women can't drive, as we saw in Saudi Arabia, and the
:32:56. > :33:03.other one, like in the United States were women can do everything.
:33:03. > :33:09.It is 100% equal qual. It is not sustainable. Something will blow up.
:33:10. > :33:13.If you think about the fall of the Berlin Wall, part of the reason is
:33:13. > :33:19.people in Eastern Europe got MTV and they saw what others had. I
:33:19. > :33:22.think that is a cause. That would be the cause, now the catalyst.
:33:22. > :33:26.I want to ask you about a particular phrase you have in your
:33:26. > :33:32.an all circumstance I think you call it the stability of small
:33:32. > :33:36.jumps, this is to say that you are constantly recalibrating your
:33:36. > :33:43.assessment. Instead of being eventually caught out by massive
:33:43. > :33:49.seismic change. How would that work? Information prices, I gave
:33:49. > :33:59.miskal analogies because my social places come from more physical
:33:59. > :34:04.
:34:04. > :34:10.places. If you are experiencing force five, systematically,
:34:10. > :34:15.preventing the small fires. The bigger forest fires would be more
:34:15. > :34:19.devastating. In economics if you constrain a price, artificially,
:34:19. > :34:25.prevent the market from changing the price, you will have a shock.
:34:25. > :34:30.This is my analogy to other systems, and we have shared universalties.
:34:30. > :34:35.The transfer systems have a lot in economy. They like a little bit of
:34:35. > :34:40.noise. Noise makes information rise to the surface in political life.
:34:40. > :34:44.How does this play out in political terms? In political terms if you
:34:44. > :34:48.have, take Italy, where you know at any point in time where people
:34:48. > :34:53.stand. You know the balance of power, you see what is going on and
:34:53. > :34:56.you know what people want. People can either shake their trousers or
:34:56. > :35:01.like Lebanon they arrive at conclusions and they can manage the
:35:01. > :35:06.country, at least you don't have big shots. Where as in Iran before
:35:06. > :35:10.the revolution you didn't know what was going on. Even the opposition
:35:10. > :35:15.didn't know its relative strength. Nobody knows what is going on. The
:35:15. > :35:19.regime doesn't know how repressive it has to be? The point is
:35:19. > :35:25.information is key for functioning democracies, that is true, I would
:35:25. > :35:30.agree with that. You it is interesting to maybe think about
:35:30. > :35:38.the current Black Swan we are seeing unfold today. The Greek
:35:38. > :35:43.crisis. In some ways it could have been predicted, if we looked at
:35:43. > :35:46.what was happening to tax collecting in Greece and looked at
:35:46. > :35:50.rising unemployment there. What is going to happen, moving forward,
:35:50. > :35:54.this is a real case of surely of thinking not in terms of
:35:54. > :35:59.necessarily being able to predict what will happen, but what are the
:35:59. > :36:04.possible sin Nair knows, will they default or accept the euro. All of
:36:04. > :36:14.which are possible action force now. What do you think about what is
:36:14. > :36:15.
:36:15. > :36:20.happening in Greece? About three- and-a-half years ago there was
:36:20. > :36:23.rioting, and I was very surprised throughout, that they did not stop
:36:23. > :36:28.rioting. You have this moral has standard argument that is very
:36:28. > :36:31.apparent in Greece, much more so than in the UK and the United
:36:31. > :36:35.States. It is very prevalent everywhere. Here you have some
:36:35. > :36:40.people make money, they are milking the system, namely bankers or
:36:40. > :36:43.people who benefit from loans. Other people have to pay the price.
:36:43. > :36:48.Three years until the crisis, in the United States, in Europe, those
:36:48. > :36:52.who make the money are making more money, or at least are not
:36:52. > :36:59.penalised. Those who paid the price did not benefit from the process
:36:59. > :37:03.before the crisis. So you have that moral has standard that, you know,
:37:03. > :37:09.is very obvious. The Greeks started identifying it. Of course you are
:37:09. > :37:12.going to riot because the people are paying the price today they are
:37:12. > :37:22.retirees. People have to accept people have to pay for others. They
:37:22. > :37:23.
:37:23. > :37:28.can't take it any more. It is a Black Swan, is it? In Greece, no,
:37:28. > :37:31.it would be for not having street rice in London and New York and
:37:31. > :37:34.other places in Europe against the bankers. Thank you very much, both
:37:34. > :37:38.of you. Lots of Australians got up in the
:37:38. > :37:44.middle of the night earlier today, or tomorrow as it is there, they
:37:44. > :37:50.wanted to witness the biggest lunar eclipse this century. When we
:37:50. > :37:54.watched it an hour ago, it was disappointing, many believed there
:37:54. > :37:59.could be so much ash in the atmosphere, there would be some
:37:59. > :38:09.spectacular effects. Let's look at some images of the last full lunar
:38:09. > :38:09.
:38:09. > :38:59.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 50 seconds
:38:59. > :39:03.With me now is the space scientist, Dr Maggie Aderin-Pocock, who will
:39:03. > :39:07.be joined, hope by the impressionist, come amateur
:39:07. > :39:10.astronomer, Jon Culshaw, shortly. Those were amazing pictures, today
:39:10. > :39:15.was rather more disappointing. main trouble we have today is cloud
:39:15. > :39:19.here in the UK. You have got some very interesting props on the desk
:39:19. > :39:24.in front of you. What on earth are they for? I wanted to try to
:39:24. > :39:29.explain why the moon goes blood red during a total eclipse of the moon.
:39:29. > :39:35.If this is the earth and the moon, if you could be the sun. Sunlight
:39:35. > :39:39.is coming in. Where should I shine it? Straight ahead. What we have is
:39:39. > :39:43.this is the earth and this is the moon. What happens is the earth
:39:43. > :39:48.gets between the sun and the moon. The moon is thrown into shadow.
:39:48. > :39:52.That is an eclipse? Yes, it is a total eclipse of the moon. You
:39:52. > :39:55.would think in the shadow of the earth you would see no light
:39:55. > :40:01.reaching the moon, the moon would disappear. That is not what happens.
:40:01. > :40:05.Although you have the earth, the earth is surrounded by a nice
:40:05. > :40:09.cotton wool atmosphere, that acts as a lens and refracting some of
:40:09. > :40:14.the light on to the moon. You do get light hitting the moon. That
:40:14. > :40:17.doesn't explain why it is blood red. The reason is because there are
:40:17. > :40:22.particles in the atmosphere like you mentioned. If I take the sun
:40:22. > :40:28.and shine it through the water, it comes out as plain white. If you
:40:28. > :40:33.add a few particles, this is a well known household disinfectant. I add
:40:33. > :40:38.a few particles to the water, now when I pass the light through the
:40:38. > :40:44.water. It does, yeah. If you have lots of particles in the atmosphere,
:40:44. > :40:49.which would have been the effect of the Chilean volcano it should look
:40:49. > :40:55.fantastic. It doesn't look fantastic. When I came in it wasn't
:40:55. > :40:59.in totality yet. We have some light pictures, of how it lookings in
:40:59. > :41:03.Jerusalem, I don't know why we are looking - looking at Jerusalem, I
:41:03. > :41:09.don't know why we are looking at it there. It doesn't look very
:41:09. > :41:14.different to me? It looks the same? I saw a total eclipse in 2007, I
:41:14. > :41:19.was totally freaked out. First of all, you saw the moon being eaten
:41:19. > :41:23.away, frequenty on a given night, then it did go blood red, I wanted
:41:23. > :41:27.to look away because it didn't look right. Why do people like you get
:41:27. > :41:31.so excited about this, it is very rare, apparently, there won't be
:41:31. > :41:36.another for a long time? This is the longest, that is because the
:41:36. > :41:41.way the earth and moon are lined up. Sometimes the earth is glancing the
:41:41. > :41:44.moon, this is going straight across the centre of the earth, this is
:41:44. > :41:54.the longest total eclipse of the senttry, probably the only one we
:41:54. > :41:58.will see and we are not seeing it. This is a wit of a flaw in this
:41:59. > :42:02.item! Mathematically it is very interesting. I haven't done the
:42:03. > :42:06.calculation. Why are they excited about it? It is the mechanics of
:42:06. > :42:13.the universe, controlled by gravitational forces. We could get
:42:13. > :42:17.a total eclipse every month. But the sun moon and earth aren't in
:42:17. > :42:23.total alignment and only occur occasionally. There are cycles frg
:42:23. > :42:29.goes through, the lunar cycle for total eclipses are 18 years and ten
:42:29. > :42:33.days. Between that there are 18 partial eclipses, all this can be
:42:33. > :42:39.calculated with the all linement of the sun, moon and earth. So the
:42:39. > :42:44.next time this will happen you can predict absolutely when this will
:42:44. > :42:49.happen again? Definitely, yes. will be 21 or something or other?
:42:49. > :42:52.You haven't done the calculation but it is about that. Do you get
:42:52. > :42:57.the sense, when people get quite excited about this today, all
:42:57. > :43:03.around the world dou, get a sense of an increasing aware - do you get
:43:03. > :43:09.a sense of increasing awareness of as no mam kal events? It is the
:43:09. > :43:13.same - astronomical events? It is the same people who get excited,
:43:13. > :43:18.like me. Some people say great, fantastic, others say big deal.
:43:18. > :43:22.What I try to do as a science communicator is try to get the not
:43:22. > :43:29.so excited, excited about this. It is the ponders of the universe.
:43:29. > :43:35.think we are joined now by Jon Culshaw, here he is. I time
:43:35. > :43:41.travelled to be here. Forwards or backwards. You are excited about
:43:41. > :43:47.this? Yes, yes. Why? It is just the vastness of space. I have gone into
:43:47. > :43:51.Brian Cox, it just seems to be the right way to describe it. When you
:43:51. > :43:55.think of the shad toe of the earth cast over the moon and - shadow of
:43:55. > :44:00.the earth, cast over the moon, and it looks like, that it gives you a
:44:00. > :44:07.sense of the solar system, space and the vastness of all of that.
:44:08. > :44:12.You can't fail to be fascinated. is. We have just seen the picture
:44:12. > :44:17.from Jerusalem, we might have a look again. There we are. There is
:44:17. > :44:21.Jerusalem, that is how it looks? looks exactly the same or more or
:44:21. > :44:27.less the same as normally. That is not fully eclipsed, it is probably
:44:27. > :44:32.done by them. We should be just going into totality, that doesn't
:44:32. > :44:37.look like, that it does go red. we were talking about the Arab
:44:37. > :44:40.Spring or something, rather appropriately. Tell u do you get
:44:40. > :44:45.this sense, we were just discussing whether there was an increasing
:44:45. > :44:50.fascination, I sometimes, as an outsider, get the impression there
:44:50. > :44:58.is an increasing fascination with what's happening out there in the
:44:58. > :45:03.solar Aziz tem. This view wasn't yueflly shared, give us your -
:45:03. > :45:09.universally shared, give us your version? As long as you have people
:45:09. > :45:16.telling the story of the vastness of space. What is it, what is it
:45:16. > :45:24.about it that seems to be having a tighter grip, is it to do with
:45:24. > :45:28.religion? Astronomy is the oldest and greatest of all the scientists.
:45:28. > :45:32.Nobody can fail to be fascinate bid a clear sky, a star lit night,
:45:32. > :45:40.things like the eclipse, they have an awesome sort of majesty about
:45:40. > :45:45.them. It puts us into a nice bit of perspective?
:45:45. > :45:50.We are made aware of our smallness because of these things? It doesn't
:45:50. > :45:54.detract from things but makes me happy to be part of a wonderful
:45:54. > :45:58.universe. Thanks for coming. That's all from Newsnight tonight, we
:45:58. > :46:08.leave you with pictures of what happened when the four-times
:46:08. > :46:15.
:46:15. > :46:25.America's cup champion, Russell Coutts, took his 40ld ft catamaran
:46:25. > :46:51.
:46:51. > :46:55.Hello there, a real soaking on the way to end the week. Even first
:46:55. > :47:03.thing in the Major General persistent rain across southern
:47:03. > :47:08.England, wo work - morning, persistent rain across southern
:47:08. > :47:12.England. Hit and miss, as the showers are, they could be heavy
:47:12. > :47:17.and thundery. Any thundery spells not to be relied upon. A coolish
:47:17. > :47:20.day, particularly when the showers come along. If you get very lucky,
:47:21. > :47:24.particularly along the coastal fringe, you might have a fine
:47:24. > :47:28.afternoon. You will be lucky indeed, there will be a number of showers.
:47:28. > :47:31.Temperatures up and down like a Yeo, the sunnier spells getting up to
:47:31. > :47:34.the mid-teens, when the showers come along they will fall by
:47:34. > :47:42.several degrees. Sunshine and showers for Northern Ireland, for
:47:42. > :47:46.Scotland as well. The winds fairly light, so those showers will be
:47:46. > :47:49.quite slow-moving as well. What about the end of the week?
:47:49. > :47:54.Increasingly wet from the south. It means northern areas will be last
:47:54. > :47:57.to see the rain. Some sunshine, eventually the rain will arrive.
:47:57. > :48:01.Further south it will unturn increasingly wet and chilly under