:00:10. > :00:14.Tonight, markets in freefall and big questions asked about the
:00:14. > :00:16.global leadership of the economy. But what does this latest bout of
:00:16. > :00:20.panic mean? Investors are worried about a
:00:20. > :00:23.double-dip in the real world, and an absence of reality in the world
:00:23. > :00:27.of politics. We will be discussing if this
:00:27. > :00:32.represents nothing less than failure of globalisation.
:00:32. > :00:37.Go now, calls from the US in Europe for Syria's President to finally
:00:37. > :00:41.stand down, as the UN hears new allegations of slaughter by Al-
:00:41. > :00:45.Assad's forces. The transition to democracy in Syria has begun, and
:00:46. > :00:50.it is time for Al-Assad to get out of the way.
:00:50. > :00:53.These ones got under the bar, but are higher fees going to put
:00:53. > :00:58.tomorrow's students off the chance of going to university. I think if
:00:58. > :01:01.you actually look into it, it is actually not a horrible deal, you
:01:01. > :01:08.still get to borrow the money, you get to borrow it out for longer,
:01:08. > :01:13.you earn more money before you start paying it back.
:01:13. > :01:16.20 years ago the coup that spelt the end of the Soviet Union, and
:01:16. > :01:25.ultimately Gorbachev. We hear the story of that remarkable time, in
:01:25. > :01:29.his own words. Good evening, it takes very little
:01:29. > :01:35.to send the markets into freefall these days. So this, a terrible day
:01:35. > :01:38.in Europe, and in the states, can be nominally traced back to poor
:01:38. > :01:44.economic data coming out of Philadelphia. More and more the big
:01:44. > :01:49.questions are being asked, does the growing pessimism mean that both
:01:49. > :01:53.economies are going into a new recession, and does it mean too
:01:53. > :01:55.little leadership globaly and too few options left. We will hear from
:01:55. > :01:59.the economist that believes globalisation is to blame.
:01:59. > :02:07.First our economics editor, Paul Mason, is with me tonight.
:02:07. > :02:10.We have had 4.5% knocked the value of shares in the FTSE in London,
:02:10. > :02:14.and 5% off the American stock market. What they are reacting to
:02:14. > :02:19.is the recovery is petering out and cooling off, there are clear signs
:02:19. > :02:24.that politicians in the world don't have much of an idea what to do
:02:24. > :02:28.with it. The students of the 1930s, and this looks like the double-dip
:02:29. > :02:32.recession under Roosevelt. The whole 1930s, the shadow of the
:02:32. > :02:40.1930s are hanging over the situation and the debate that is
:02:40. > :02:49.are going on. Those who studied the 1930s are
:02:49. > :02:52.always worried about a double-dip recession. Today a key index of
:02:52. > :02:55.American production obliged, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve index
:02:55. > :02:59.had plotted the recovery, the slowing recovery, but nothing
:02:59. > :03:04.prepared the markets for this 31% drop.
:03:04. > :03:08.We see a sharp drop in the manufacturing sector in the US, and
:03:08. > :03:14.the Philadelphia region, a good indicator for future performance in
:03:14. > :03:18.the US. And we have sharp drops in consumer confidence, a weaker
:03:18. > :03:21.labour market, we could be on the cusp of recession even as we are
:03:21. > :03:25.speaking now. There is a second quiet panic going on over Europes
:03:25. > :03:29.and the banks. Some European states stand in danger of defaulting on
:03:29. > :03:36.their debts. Those debts are held by banks, and the markets fear
:03:36. > :03:43.sooner or later, a big bank will have to be rescued. So today the
:03:43. > :03:50.markets dumped the shares European banks. RBS and Barclays both lost
:03:50. > :03:55.11% of their value. As for the FTSE, which lost �61 billion in a single
:03:55. > :04:00.day, 2011 is turning into bad year. The third risk is political,
:04:01. > :04:04.everything depends on politicians taking big, decisive steps.
:04:04. > :04:08.The markets want certainty over Europe, what's the deal that will
:04:08. > :04:13.reshape the eurozone, and in America, which came close to
:04:13. > :04:16.default two weeks ago, some investors fear there is just a
:04:16. > :04:20.policy vacuum. We understand that markets do not like uncertainty, we
:04:20. > :04:23.have all kinds of debt uncertainty in Europe, we have fatal flaw in
:04:23. > :04:26.the construction of the eurozone, in the United States we have
:04:26. > :04:30.Republicans and Democrats at loggerhead, they don't want to cut
:04:30. > :04:34.the fiscal deficit, we know it needs to be cut. So we have this
:04:34. > :04:37.impasse and in the two biggest economic blocks in the world. And
:04:38. > :04:45.it is not surprising we have chaos in the financial markets.
:04:45. > :04:50.nobody believes the chaos will be over soon. You talked about the
:04:50. > :04:54.policy vacuum, what can you actually do? We have had tax cuts,
:04:54. > :04:58.spending increase, printing money, we have had zero interest rates,
:04:58. > :05:04.half bank nationalisations and bailouts. You will often Lear
:05:04. > :05:07.people say there are no more - hear people say there are no more
:05:07. > :05:11.bullets in the clip, there are actually plenty of things to do,
:05:11. > :05:15.but not acceptable to the political class in the last 20 years. You
:05:15. > :05:19.could break up the eurozone, and do very hard bank nationalisation, you
:05:19. > :05:23.could have protectionism, you could abolish the minimum wage in various
:05:23. > :05:26.countries. There are all kinds of things in the policy armoury that
:05:26. > :05:30.actually countries have considered doing. But what we are increasingly
:05:30. > :05:34.running up against are the political limitations above all of
:05:34. > :05:39.democracies to do any of these things.
:05:39. > :05:43.I'm joined from New York by the leading international economist,
:05:43. > :05:48.Jeffrey Sach, and the global editor-at-large from Reuters, and
:05:48. > :05:54.here in the studio by monetary analyst and former measure of the
:05:54. > :05:58.Treasury panel, Tim Condon. First of all, Paul raises interesting
:05:58. > :06:02.thoughts about the politically unthinkable, first of all, how
:06:02. > :06:10.close are we to recession, Morgan Stanley published a report today
:06:10. > :06:17.saying the second wave was just about here? Clearly the
:06:17. > :06:20.transatlantic economies are stalled, at best. Surely a double-dip is a
:06:20. > :06:25.real possibility. We have had dreadful lack of strategy on both
:06:25. > :06:29.sides of the Atlantic right now. Europe is confused, divided,
:06:29. > :06:34.European institutions are not working properly, the United States,
:06:34. > :06:39.we don't have the presidential leadership that's essential for our
:06:39. > :06:43.political system to operate. And so, while there are policy alternative,
:06:43. > :06:46.not necessarily the list that we just heard, think there are better
:06:46. > :06:50.ones, we are not getting sensible policies on either side of the
:06:50. > :06:55.Atlantic, and the economies are in terrible trouble. So, for example,
:06:55. > :07:00.when you hear Europe's President, Van Rompuy, saying he has no
:07:00. > :07:04.expectation of return to recession in Europe, that doesn't reassure
:07:04. > :07:09.you? Well, it certainly doesn't reassure the markets, and there are
:07:09. > :07:14.some very serious problems in Europe right now. Obviously the
:07:14. > :07:20.Greek crisis is on the front burner, but there is lots of risk of
:07:20. > :07:24.contagion, all the way from Spain, Portugal, Italy, and now into the
:07:24. > :07:29.banking sector into France. So there is a tremendous amount of
:07:29. > :07:33.worry. I think this contagion could be avoided, this could be fought,
:07:33. > :07:39.but it would need real leadership at the European level. Instead,
:07:39. > :07:45.what we have is a lot of confusion a lot of division, and
:07:45. > :07:48.nationalistic politics rather than European-wide determination to
:07:48. > :07:52.protect and preserve the euro. That is what I would have expected see
:07:52. > :07:55.from European politicians, but we are not seeing it very clearly.
:07:55. > :08:01.sounds like you don't think anyone really has a clear plan for getting
:08:01. > :08:07.us out of this mess. Let me ask you, bluntly, do you blame globalisation
:08:07. > :08:11.for the position we are now in? Globalisation has really shaken our
:08:11. > :08:16.economies, it has shaken the manufacturing sector in Europe and
:08:16. > :08:20.in the United States. We could respond to it, and woe need to spon
:08:20. > :08:25.to it, I believe that - and we need to respond to it. I believe long-
:08:25. > :08:28.term, properly planned public investments in infrastructure and
:08:28. > :08:32.upgrading skills in a new energy system, which both sides of the
:08:32. > :08:36.Atlantic, and indeed the whole world need, this is something that
:08:36. > :08:41.should have been done, instead what we had was short-term stimulus to
:08:41. > :08:48.try to keep a consumption bubble alive. That petered out. And now,
:08:48. > :08:53.what we have is a reversion to kind of plain vanilla austerity measures
:08:53. > :08:58.which also don't give prospects of economic growth. So there are ways
:08:58. > :09:01.to do things that we need to do, we need public investments desperately
:09:01. > :09:06.to modernise our economies to upgrade skills, to train workers to
:09:06. > :09:13.be able to compete in a highly competitive global economy. In
:09:13. > :09:17.other words, globalisation hasn't failed so much as it has challenged
:09:17. > :09:22.the transatlantic economies, desperately, and we have not
:09:22. > :09:26.responded it. A lot of the world is growing fast, it is the high income
:09:26. > :09:30.economies that did not react properly to globalisation at this
:09:30. > :09:33.point. They want consumption-led growth, but that won't work. In a
:09:33. > :09:37.sense it is too late to challenge globalisation now, the kind of
:09:37. > :09:42.things you are putting forward sound very reasonable, but they are
:09:42. > :09:45.politically, virtually impossible at this point in the cycle? I don't
:09:45. > :09:50.think they are politically impossible, it is just that our
:09:50. > :09:54.politicians were looking for short- term gimmicks, short-term gimmicks
:09:54. > :09:59.all along. We had a consumption bubble which carried us through a
:09:59. > :10:04.part of globalisation, but that consumption bubble collapsed in
:10:04. > :10:08.2008, that was the occasion to get more serious. Instead we had more
:10:08. > :10:15.attempts to revive a consumption bubble, that more or less carried
:10:15. > :10:20.us through 2010, that finished as well. We have not seen either on
:10:20. > :10:24.the US or European side, a truly sensible response. Globalisation is
:10:24. > :10:29.not only shaking the competitiveness of a core part of
:10:30. > :10:32.the transatlantic economy, but it has also led to massive income
:10:32. > :10:36.inequalties in Europe and the United States, and the rich have
:10:36. > :10:39.basically walked off with the prize, leaving a large part of the
:10:39. > :10:46.population and the labour force, both in Europe and the United
:10:46. > :10:55.States, effectively either without jobs or without a means of the kind
:10:55. > :10:59.of middle-class suss napbs that they came to expect. And so, -
:10:59. > :11:04.sustanenca that they came to expect. Politically they haven't looked
:11:04. > :11:10.long-term. We still have to do it, there are no short-term gimmicks
:11:10. > :11:13.now, we have to go through a serious long-term approach. Let me
:11:13. > :11:18.put through some of those ideas, it would be interesting to hear your
:11:18. > :11:25.response Tim Condona very strong phrase, the rich have basically
:11:25. > :11:29.walked off with the goods, and the poor have been forgotten.
:11:29. > :11:33.couldn't disagree more strongly, the effect of globalisation has
:11:33. > :11:37.been to make poor people in China, India and the developing world,
:11:37. > :11:41.much richer, that is a wonderful thing. I don't agrow that the prime
:11:41. > :11:46.cause of inequality, and inequality has increased in the rich countries,
:11:46. > :11:50.but the prime cause of things like that is bad education for the less
:11:50. > :11:53.well off, and problems in our education system, the welfare state
:11:53. > :11:56.and so on. I don't think they are caused by globalisation,
:11:56. > :11:59.globalisation has been very good for our living standards and the
:11:59. > :12:03.living standards of those, particularly the poor in the third
:12:03. > :12:06.world. But you can't actually raise taxes of corporates without
:12:06. > :12:10.corporates saying we have to go elsewhere. The same with any tax
:12:10. > :12:13.you warranted to impose on individual, you get - you wanted to
:12:13. > :12:19.impose on individuals, you get people going and doing business
:12:19. > :12:23.elsewhere, that is where anyone can always escape it? The rich have
:12:23. > :12:26.been escaping taxes for centuries. It doesn't mean it is OK? Let's be
:12:26. > :12:29.clear we are talking about what is happening in the last 20 years, in
:12:29. > :12:35.that period there has been intense globalisation, if you wish, and
:12:35. > :12:39.there has been a huge increase of living standards of formally very -
:12:39. > :12:42.formerly very poor people in places like India and China, and that is a
:12:42. > :12:46.very good thing. How much do you think this is down to the economy,
:12:46. > :12:49.per se, and how much is down to political system, which,
:12:49. > :12:53.essentially, have left people nowhere to show leadership?
:12:53. > :12:59.Actually, I think it is thank it is quite trendy at the moment to talk
:12:59. > :13:02.about political dysfunction, and to talk about some how like treating
:13:02. > :13:06.politicians like kids in a playground, and if only they could
:13:06. > :13:09.all get along everything would be OK. I think actually the problem is
:13:09. > :13:15.much more profound than that, if you take the United States, there
:13:15. > :13:19.is a very serious, very consequential ideolgical divide.
:13:19. > :13:23.That ideolgical divide is reflected in Washington and it exists in the
:13:23. > :13:29.country. The very sad consequences right now, I think it is paralysing
:13:29. > :13:35.Washington when it comes to responding to this crisis. We saw a
:13:35. > :13:39.vivid example of this week, Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, an
:13:39. > :13:44.important politician, one of the leading Republican candidates for
:13:44. > :13:51.the presidential nomination, talked about the chairman of the Fed, as
:13:51. > :13:57.someone who is tease sonness, and if he goes to - trees sonness, and
:13:57. > :14:02.if he goes to Texas he will be beaten up. That speaks of a huge
:14:02. > :14:05.lack of faith in the Government by an important part of the US
:14:05. > :14:09.political system. I don't think this is just about dysfunction, not
:14:09. > :14:12.getting along, it is about a very, very deep division within the
:14:12. > :14:20.country, which makes it so hard to deal with this extremely difficult
:14:20. > :14:25.economic situation. What is the answer to that? I think there is a
:14:25. > :14:29.little bit of confusion in what I'm saying and what has been commented
:14:29. > :14:33.on. Globalisation, of course, has raised incomes in poor countries, I
:14:33. > :14:38.was talking about how it has shaken our economies in Europe and the
:14:38. > :14:45.United States. And what it has meant for those with low skills in
:14:45. > :14:49.the US and Europe. It has created a terrible problem. What it has also
:14:49. > :14:53.done is given the increase income and wealth at the very top of the
:14:53. > :14:57.political spectrum. Our problem in the United States is not so much
:14:57. > :15:01.political polarisation, but the fact that both political parties
:15:01. > :15:07.cater to those who finance their campaigns. We get tax cuts at the
:15:07. > :15:11.top, slashs in social spending at the bottom, and so the poor are
:15:11. > :15:15.paying twice. They are paying by how globalisation is rearranging
:15:15. > :15:20.the world economy and by how it is rearranging the politics. But both
:15:20. > :15:25.the politics and economics are reaching a dramatic crisis point in
:15:25. > :15:30.Europe and the United States, unless we get a lot more serious to
:15:30. > :15:35.hold our societies together. That means Democrats and Republicans, it
:15:35. > :15:38.is not one or the other, but both realising that the rich have become
:15:38. > :15:43.fatastically rich and need to be taxed more, so they can help the
:15:43. > :15:47.rest of society through this period. Unless we do this we are going to
:15:47. > :15:51.enter a continuing era of greater instability.
:15:51. > :15:55.It is interesting when you say we have to not treat politicians like
:15:55. > :15:58.kids in the playground. The point is, nobody can be decisive this
:15:58. > :16:02.time round, we have seen the wrangling in Congress, we have seen
:16:03. > :16:05.the complete chaos in Europe, that is the problem, when democracies
:16:05. > :16:09.can't actually show anything straight in terms of the leadership
:16:09. > :16:14.now? Actually I don't think it is lack of decisiveness, I think it is
:16:14. > :16:19.an honest disagreement, I do think in the United States the real
:16:19. > :16:24.tragedy at the moment is that the President really is in the centre
:16:24. > :16:28.of the ring, and he turns out to be the political actor who is the
:16:28. > :16:32.least willing to express a clear agenda, and the least willing to
:16:32. > :16:35.fight for it. That is certainly a big part of the reason why we
:16:35. > :16:41.aren't seeing something clear and strong coming out of Washington. I
:16:41. > :16:44.also think that Jeff is absolutely right to point to increased income
:16:44. > :16:49.inequality in the west. In the United States, in much of western
:16:49. > :16:53.Europe, as a real source of the problem, and what is happening, I
:16:53. > :16:57.think political elites tend to hand out with business elites and it has
:16:57. > :17:00.taken them a while to really realise the severity of how the
:17:00. > :17:03.middle-class is being hit. That is the crux of it, isn't it, the
:17:03. > :17:07.politicians listen to the people they think are voting for them,
:17:07. > :17:11.sometimes this elite? It is a question of inequality, one of the
:17:11. > :17:14.problems here is banking and the financial sector and how it fits
:17:14. > :17:20.into capitalist economies. In the last few years the banking sector
:17:20. > :17:23.has been extremely well paid, and people envy it a and so on, in
:17:23. > :17:26.America there have been at least three episode where is they have
:17:26. > :17:30.destroyed their banking system. Through more or less regulation,
:17:31. > :17:34.that is where we are going now? think that is a big subject. In the
:17:34. > :17:38.1930s the American banking system collapsed and had a big recession,
:17:39. > :17:42.we must stop that this time. The big problem, in my view, in the
:17:42. > :17:46.last few years Governments have been too tough on the banks, they
:17:46. > :17:51.pay be overpaid, they have stopped the banks growing, they very slow
:17:51. > :17:54.growth of money has been the basic cause of the recession.
:17:55. > :17:58.After weeks of speculation, today President Obama, in words both
:17:58. > :18:02.stark and unambiguous, called for Syria's President to go. With his
:18:02. > :18:06.call a series of unprecedented and immediate actions, including a
:18:06. > :18:11.freeze on all Syrian assets in the US. The statement was co-ordinated
:18:11. > :18:14.with other European leaders, Merkel, Sarkozy and David Cameron here,
:18:14. > :18:18.tonight the UN said it was investigating allegations of a
:18:18. > :18:21.shoot-to-kill policy in Syria, and the deaths of 26 blindfolds
:18:21. > :18:24.protestors in a stadium. In a moment we will discuss whether
:18:24. > :18:34.tough words or economic sanctions can achieve anything without
:18:34. > :18:40.military might. It has taken five months of
:18:40. > :18:43.bloodshed, around 2,000 civilian lives lost. But the west has now
:18:43. > :18:53.definitively turned its back on Bashar al-Assad, a co-ordinated
:18:53. > :18:54.
:18:54. > :18:58.chorus of condemnation. This morning President Obama called
:18:58. > :19:03.on Al-Assad to step aside. And announced the strongest set of
:19:03. > :19:08.sanctions to date, targeting the Syrian Government. These sanctions
:19:08. > :19:12.include the energy sector, to increase pressure on the regime.
:19:12. > :19:16.The transition to democracy in Syria has begun, and it is time for
:19:16. > :19:21.Al-Assad to get out of the way. Bashar al-Assad came to power 12
:19:21. > :19:24.years ago on a wave of hope for reform. He still enjoys falling
:19:25. > :19:30.support from party loyalists, but outside Syria, even Arab countries
:19:30. > :19:34.are losing patience, he has few friends left, other than Iran. The
:19:34. > :19:39.trouble for Bashar al-Assad first began when a group of teenagers in
:19:39. > :19:44.the town of Deraa were arrested for scrawling anti-regime graffiti,
:19:44. > :19:48.there were protests and the Syrian uprising began. It was met with
:19:48. > :19:51.brutality, and UN investigators say that crimes against humanity may be
:19:51. > :19:57.committed, and Syria should be referred to the International
:19:57. > :20:03.Criminal Court. In one incident 26 blindfolded men
:20:03. > :20:07.are said to have been shot dead in a football stadium. Syrian humam
:20:07. > :20:11.rights activists say 30,000 people have been arrested, with 3,000
:20:11. > :20:17.missing and more than 100 children among the dead. There was a policy,
:20:17. > :20:24.they say, of shoot-to-kill. lady in dumb marks on the outskirts
:20:24. > :20:28.of Damascus, she was seven months pregnant, a baby in her abdomen, in
:20:28. > :20:35.her tummy, she was just pulling ahead, out - putting her head, out
:20:35. > :20:39.of the door to grab a bowl of rice, they shoot her in her head.
:20:39. > :20:45.despite mounting international concern, there is no prospect of
:20:45. > :20:50.western military intervention. This is going to be battle of
:20:50. > :20:55.political attrition. It is going to be one which can't easily be won,
:20:55. > :21:03.but there is no point in simply going on and acting as if you could
:21:03. > :21:08.ignore the level of violence and repression. I mean, this is the
:21:08. > :21:13.first desert country in the world to use its own Navy to fire on its
:21:13. > :21:19.own people. And the stakes are hi, you only have to look at the map to
:21:19. > :21:23.see what matters in Syria matters what happens in the Middle East. It
:21:23. > :21:27.shares wars with Lebanon and Iraq, and then there is Israel, which
:21:27. > :21:33.occupied the Golan Heights in 1967. Although Israel and Syria have
:21:33. > :21:40.fought three wars, there has been no direct confrontation for decades.
:21:40. > :21:45.With the whole of the Middle East in torment, there is fears about
:21:45. > :21:50.what the end of the Al-Assad regime might unleash. Unlike in Egypt and
:21:50. > :21:55.Libya, there is no umbrella body for the opposition, the opposition
:21:55. > :21:59.are seriously divided between exiles, those inside Syria, secular
:21:59. > :22:08.opposition, Islamists and there is no agreement on any kind of
:22:08. > :22:12.successor for Al-Assad. This isn't a turning point. The
:22:12. > :22:19.turning point will come if and when we see major protests in those
:22:19. > :22:23.parts of Syria that are as yet deciding it is not worth protesting,
:22:23. > :22:30.there are big population sent erts, capital cities, and the places in
:22:30. > :22:33.the north, so we see the military stretched so it has to choose. This
:22:33. > :22:38.is a reaction of considerable frustration from the US and the
:22:38. > :22:42.west. With Syrians burying ever-growing
:22:42. > :22:45.numbers of dead, the US, Britain, France, Germany and the EU are now
:22:45. > :22:51.speaking with one voice, that President Assad must go. They seem
:22:51. > :22:55.to have all laided that he is more of a danger in power than -
:22:55. > :22:59.calculated that he's more of a danger in power than out and they
:22:59. > :23:05.want to tighten the screws on his regime.
:23:05. > :23:10.Joining me the former US Secretary of State for Public affairs,
:23:10. > :23:15.PJCrowley and a Syrian activist. What took them so long do you
:23:15. > :23:18.think? I think part of it is a recognition, say by contrast to
:23:18. > :23:22.Libya, that they are two different countries, Libya on the fringe of
:23:22. > :23:27.the region, Gaddafi has no friends in the region, Syria is at the
:23:27. > :23:32.heart of the region, as your report said there are potential ripple
:23:32. > :23:37.effects that effect profound countries in the region. It hats
:23:37. > :23:41.taken longer to make - it has taken longer to ensure there is support
:23:41. > :23:46.in the region for the next step. There is a sobering understanding
:23:46. > :23:50.of how difficult this will be. This is where Libya has been an effect,
:23:50. > :23:54.five months ago we saw a military intervention, proving more
:23:54. > :23:57.difficult than perhaps was initially anticipated. This has
:23:57. > :24:00.contributed to the cautious approach to Syria. They have
:24:00. > :24:07.specifically ruled out military action now, how much do you think
:24:07. > :24:12.President Assad will listen to America? Not too much. Because he,
:24:12. > :24:16.up until this point, very sure that the American administration
:24:16. > :24:23.objective was to change the behaviour of the Syrian regime, not
:24:23. > :24:31.change the regime. So although the regime tried this morning to pre-
:24:31. > :24:36.emptively influence the statement, or at lost the tone of the
:24:36. > :24:39.statement - at least the tone of the statement, by telling Ban Ki-
:24:39. > :24:43.Moon that the military operation had stopped, this didn't happen,
:24:43. > :24:48.because the Americans realised there won't be any reconciliation
:24:48. > :24:53.between the people of Syria and the regime. The people of Syria have
:24:53. > :24:56.reached the point of no return with the regime. There is no point of
:24:56. > :25:02.reconciliation with them, this is the way they see it, Al-Assad has
:25:02. > :25:09.to go. Al-Assad, not only as a figurehead for the regime but as a
:25:09. > :25:12.family. You talk about getting the region on board, can Russia or
:25:12. > :25:18.China ever be brought on board, is it the economic sanction that is
:25:18. > :25:22.will make a difference. Or is it stopping the selling of
:25:22. > :25:25.arms to countries like that from Syria? It is all of the above,
:25:25. > :25:30.economically it will be important for countries like China, India,
:25:31. > :25:35.and other European countries, to sever existing economic
:25:35. > :25:40.transactions and relationships. Politically it will be important to
:25:40. > :25:45.get the Security Council on board, again, a much more of a struggle in
:25:45. > :25:48.the context of Syria than it was in the context of Libya. This is where
:25:48. > :25:54.the United Nations provides a very interesting opportunity. Also today
:25:54. > :25:57.you had the development where the UN panel has at least suggested the
:25:57. > :26:02.possibility of crimes against humanity. And this could be a lever,
:26:02. > :26:06.a long-term lever, that can be used to apply the kind of political
:26:06. > :26:11.pressure on Syria that is necessary. One other point, I agree that it is
:26:11. > :26:14.not Assad that has to hear this, but those around him, that have to
:26:14. > :26:18.make their own calculation over time about their own survival. It
:26:18. > :26:23.is that kind of pressure from inside Syria that is ultimately
:26:23. > :26:26.going to be decisive. That whole thought of the
:26:26. > :26:30.International Criminal Court, do you think that makes it more
:26:30. > :26:35.difficult for an exit for President Assad now, will this have an
:26:35. > :26:42.effect? Now he's obviously cornered, he realises he will never rule
:26:42. > :26:49.Syria the way he did prior to the March uprising. This regime is
:26:49. > :26:57.willing to do anything, and go to extreme lengths to control the
:26:57. > :27:01.situation back home. So in that he did not count on this that the
:27:01. > :27:07.Americans declared recently. He thought that he could actually work
:27:07. > :27:11.with them to create a mechanism whereby Syria can actually transfer
:27:11. > :27:14.to democracy under his leadership. It is interesting, isn't it, that
:27:14. > :27:20.idea of whether you can work with a regime like Syria, I guess the
:27:20. > :27:28.balance for western leaders is always the choosing of the ideaism,
:27:28. > :27:33.gok circumstance versus the pragmatisim of stability -
:27:33. > :27:36.democracy, versus the pragmatisim of stability, and he has said he's
:27:36. > :27:39.keeping control and western leaders have believed that. This is the
:27:40. > :27:45.hope for Assad for 20 years, after he replaced his father, that he
:27:45. > :27:49.would be a reformer, he has always had that potential, he has never
:27:49. > :27:53.followed through either because he is afraid to do it or because those
:27:53. > :27:58.around him would not allow him. That has been a slow recognition.
:27:58. > :28:04.If you look at the shift in the administration's position over time.
:28:04. > :28:08.First it was, lead transition or get out of the way, then you have
:28:08. > :28:12.lost legitimacy. Fine I think there was a situation they could no
:28:12. > :28:17.longer ignore, that it is clear that Assad is not going to change,
:28:17. > :28:24.the nature of the regime or his behaviour.
:28:24. > :28:29.The gap year stories circulating the fresher's week bar may be less
:28:29. > :28:33.compelling this autumn, or sound similar. Many have ditched the
:28:33. > :28:37.prospect of a year off to seize a university place while they can
:28:38. > :28:43.afford it. This will be the last intake before the tuition rise next
:28:43. > :28:50.year, leaving students with a debt that could mean �30,000. It will
:28:50. > :28:53.change our society's approach to university forever. We ask does the
:28:53. > :28:59.evidence bear that out. There is always a bit of luck in
:28:59. > :29:06.pass ang exam, for these students their biggest slice of good fortune
:29:07. > :29:11.means going to university before tuition fees in England treble next
:29:11. > :29:17.year. What impact will the impending change have, and how
:29:17. > :29:20.lasting will it be. Many students this year will forego a gap year
:29:20. > :29:26.before starting university. I have been waiting for this too long,
:29:26. > :29:29.even if fees go up, I wouldn't want a gap year. If you look into it, it
:29:29. > :29:33.is not actually not a horrible dealment you still get to borrow
:29:33. > :29:38.the money, and out for longer, you have to earn more money before
:29:38. > :29:47.paying it back. I'm not phased by it. Even if I did have to take gap
:29:47. > :29:50.year, it wouldn't change my decision. The teachers here in an
:29:50. > :29:56.academy in Hackney, East London, encourage students to go to
:29:56. > :29:59.university. The head thinks next year's rise in fees will only make
:29:59. > :30:01.prospective students more discerning. Four years in
:30:01. > :30:06.university is a good investment. It is really up to the universities to
:30:06. > :30:09.sell their degrees, and to demonstrate to the students that
:30:09. > :30:14.the universities are of high quality and the programmes of study
:30:14. > :30:19.are of high quality. And there is prosession, they need to show our
:30:19. > :30:22.students a track record of this, prosession from the course to
:30:22. > :30:26.employment. Some fear it is students from poorer backgrounds
:30:27. > :30:30.who will be put off. Regardless of the repayment mechanisms of how you
:30:30. > :30:36.pay back tuition fee, if you get a letter through your door every year
:30:36. > :30:40.that case you have an amount of debt close to a small mortgage,
:30:40. > :30:44.that will affect choice and psychology. Perhaps those with a
:30:44. > :30:49.background without those at university, and without the
:30:49. > :30:53.guidance of rational choice, they will be massively put off by the
:30:53. > :31:00.huge debt hanging over them. No amount of explanation will get over
:31:00. > :31:05.that psychology and fear of debt. Maybe that will happen this time.
:31:05. > :31:14.But in the past, hikes in fees haven't had a lasting impact on the
:31:14. > :31:21.size or social mix of the student population. In 1998, upfront fees
:31:21. > :31:24.of �1,200 a year were brought in, replaced by deferred fees of �3,000.
:31:24. > :31:27.This is graph showing the proportion of 18, 19-year-olds
:31:27. > :31:31.going to university during that period of time. In both change
:31:31. > :31:36.years we see the same rise in entry the year before the changes come in.
:31:36. > :31:42.There is then fall in the year the change actually happens, but looks
:31:42. > :31:47.what happens after that. Things get back to normal and carry on rising
:31:47. > :31:53.in the subsequent years. That is overall participation, what about
:31:53. > :32:03.the socioeconomic make-up of the entrants. The Institute for Fiscal
:32:03. > :32:09.
:32:09. > :32:12.Studies studied the 2006 tuition That is close to zero and
:32:12. > :32:17.statistically insignificant. At the university of East London, they
:32:17. > :32:20.don't believe the new fee regime will deter students this time
:32:20. > :32:23.either, if it is properly explained. After rather shaky start, which I
:32:23. > :32:27.can understand, the Government, working with universities and the
:32:27. > :32:29.media, is now doing a much better job of getting the message across.
:32:30. > :32:33.We are committed to working with the Government in terms of getting
:32:33. > :32:38.those messages out to some of the more difficult to reach
:32:38. > :32:42.constituencies. At the University of East London we are doubling our
:32:43. > :32:47.investment in our message to make sure that higher education is for
:32:47. > :32:53.the many not just the few. There is also evidence from
:32:53. > :32:58.elsewhere in the world, Ireland abolished tuition fees in 196. If
:32:58. > :33:08.tuition fees discourage poorer students we might see them
:33:08. > :33:22.
:33:22. > :33:26.encouraged by the abolition of the In fact, the evidence shows that it
:33:26. > :33:30.is actually exam results that are the biggest factor in getting
:33:30. > :33:33.students from poorer backgrounds into university. That is the real
:33:33. > :33:37.challenge for policy makers, to improve their life chances, they
:33:37. > :33:45.need to be making a difference long before students are even thinking
:33:45. > :33:49.about university. On August 19th, 1991 the world woke
:33:49. > :33:53.up to hear that President Gorbachev was supposedly ill and an emergency
:33:53. > :33:58.committee had taken over power in the Soviet Union. It was an
:33:58. > :34:01.abortive attempt by hardliners to turn the clock back. But the impact
:34:01. > :34:05.of the failed society coup was dramatic. By the end of the year
:34:05. > :34:09.the Soviet Union had disappeared, and Gorbachev, the last Soviet
:34:09. > :34:13.leader, forced into retirement. 20 years on we have had exclusive
:34:13. > :34:20.access to Mikhail Gorbachev, to chart the inside story of the coup,
:34:20. > :34:27.and its long-term consequences. The Kremlin leader, who started out
:34:27. > :34:31.the master of compromise and ended up its victim.
:34:31. > :34:39.1991, a momentous year, when the future of Russia and the world were
:34:39. > :34:46.at stake. He listened carefully and then said,
:34:46. > :34:52.please, please. Explain to your President, this country is on the
:34:52. > :34:58.brink of civil war. TRANSLATION: was a struggle for life and death.
:34:58. > :35:05.20 years on, the inside story of Mikhail Gorbachev's downfall, and
:35:05. > :35:09.the demolition of the Soviet empire. You saw a coup in the Soviet Union
:35:09. > :35:15.that may have changed the whole face of it and one saw it swept
:35:15. > :35:19.away. That enormous white building across
:35:19. > :35:23.the Moscow River, is exactly what it looks like, the imposing
:35:23. > :35:27.headquarters of someone very high up and very important, Vladimir
:35:27. > :35:32.Putin, the most powerful politician in Russia. But 20 years ago it was
:35:32. > :35:36.something very different, it was the centre of the resistance to the
:35:36. > :35:44.attempted coup that tried to topple Mikhail Gorbachev and reverse his
:35:44. > :35:47.reforms. By 1991, the public mood was becoming angry. For ordinary
:35:47. > :35:53.people, economic upheaval was beginning to make life unbearable.
:35:53. > :35:57.The Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev, took the brunt of
:35:57. > :36:02.people's rage. It was six years of his reforms that they considered
:36:02. > :36:05.were to blame. At times he sought solace in political jokes.
:36:05. > :36:09.Gorbachev told me the following story, he said there was a food
:36:09. > :36:14.shortage in Moscow, and people were queuing for bread, and they had
:36:14. > :36:19.been queuing a long time and they were getting very irritated. And
:36:19. > :36:24.one man turned in the queue and said to his neighbour, I'm fed up
:36:24. > :36:27.with this, I blame Gorbachev, he's going to kill Gorbachev and off he
:36:27. > :36:32.went. He came back two days later, the queue had moved forward a
:36:32. > :36:38.little. Well they said, had he killed Gorbachev, no he replied,
:36:38. > :36:45.the queue to kill Gorbachev was just too long!
:36:45. > :36:50.At the annual May Day parade, the crowd on Moscow's Red Square jeered
:36:50. > :36:56.at Gorbachev. But behind the scenes, there was a bigger threat. Members
:36:56. > :37:00.of his own Government, next to him on the podium, were privately
:37:00. > :37:09.scheming against him. TRANSLATION: We saw in Gorbachev someone who was
:37:09. > :37:13.incapable of governing, we were quite convinced about this.
:37:13. > :37:18.Americans heard rumour that is a coup was being planned to oust
:37:18. > :37:27.Gorbachev. It was Yeleusizov's idea to warn Gorbachev, I told him it
:37:27. > :37:30.was more - Yeltsin's idea to warn Gorbachev, he told him a coup was
:37:30. > :37:35.being organised against him and could happen at any time. He
:37:35. > :37:41.laughed and said something about naive Americans. By early August,
:37:41. > :37:45.1991, Gorbachev decided to join forces with his arch rival, Boris
:37:45. > :37:49.Yeltsin. They struck a deal in a secret meeting. TRANSLATION:
:37:49. > :37:52.agreed that Boris Yeltsin would stay in Russia as he was an elected
:37:52. > :37:57.President, and Gorbachev would be union President. And we would get
:37:57. > :38:06.rid of all those putting spokes in the wheels, and then we named them,
:38:06. > :38:10.the people we were talking about. What Gorbachev didn't realise was
:38:10. > :38:17.that the very hardliners he was planning to get rid of, had
:38:17. > :38:22.secretly used the KGB to record the conversation. His deal with Boris
:38:22. > :38:28.Yeltsin back fired, his enemies, including his own vice-president,
:38:28. > :38:38.defence and KGB chiefs, decided to act at once, stage a coup against
:38:38. > :38:43.
:38:43. > :38:47.The coup plotters sent a delegation to confront Gorbachev at his
:38:47. > :38:52.holiday Villa by the Black Sea, in a tense meeting they presented him
:38:52. > :39:00.with an ultimatum, either to agree to a state of emergency, or hand
:39:01. > :39:06.over power to them. TRANSLATION: even swore at them, I said to go
:39:06. > :39:11.and convene a Congress, and we will see whose plan will get more
:39:11. > :39:16.support, their's or mine. In the end they left empty handed, they
:39:16. > :39:23.flew back. I think they got drunk on the way, and reported back that
:39:23. > :39:29.Gorbachev had refused. Refused what? Refused to sign the order
:39:29. > :39:39.delegating my powers to the vice- president, due to the poor state of
:39:39. > :39:55.
:39:55. > :39:59.my health. What lies. In Moscow tanks rolled into the city centre.
:39:59. > :40:04.State television and radio announced that Gorbachev was ill
:40:04. > :40:14.and an emergency committee was now in charge. It looked as though the
:40:14. > :40:18.
:40:18. > :40:22.old terrifying Soviet dictatorship was back. As the drama unfolded in
:40:22. > :40:26.Moscow, Gorbachev realised the phones were disconnected, and he
:40:26. > :40:36.and his family were under house arrest. He and his wife feared the
:40:36. > :40:42.worst. TRANSLATION: They surrounded us with the cars down by the
:40:42. > :40:47.seashore and everywhere. We entrance they parked cars so nobody
:40:47. > :40:52.could drive past, many people were trying to get in, and they wouldn't
:40:52. > :40:55.let anyone through. TRANSLATION: Several of our
:40:55. > :40:58.bodyguard deserted us, we were not sure we could trust those who
:40:58. > :41:03.stayed behind. I didn't know whether they were protecting us or
:41:03. > :41:08.were under orders to guard us, they could have turned their beguns on
:41:08. > :41:12.us at any time, we were - guns on us at any time, they were watching
:41:12. > :41:16.us from every staircase. In the capital, Boris Yeltsin
:41:16. > :41:26.denounced the coup as illegal, and urged people to join him at the
:41:26. > :41:26.
:41:27. > :41:29.White House to defend Russia's fledgling democracy.
:41:29. > :41:39.Thousands gathered, people who realised after six years of
:41:39. > :41:43.
:41:43. > :41:49.Gorbachev's reforms they had lost their fear. It was this new found
:41:49. > :41:53.de defiance that dealt a cruel blow to the coup leaders, parts of the
:41:53. > :41:57.army refused to fire on the people. Within three days it was over,
:41:57. > :42:01.Gorbachev and his family returned to Moscow, but everything had
:42:01. > :42:07.changed. The coup leaders had lost, but so too, it turned out had
:42:07. > :42:13.Gorbachev. A showdown in the Russian
:42:13. > :42:23.parliament made the power shift clear. At first, Gorbachev assumed
:42:23. > :42:27.
:42:27. > :42:32.as Soviet President he was in charge. Then Yeltsin the Russian
:42:32. > :42:36.President, interrupted him with the bombshell news that he was
:42:36. > :42:43.outlawing the communist party, Gorbachev no longer had the power
:42:44. > :42:50.to overrule him. Yet Gorbachev still hoped the old structure of
:42:50. > :42:57.the Soviet Union could be preserved with himself at the helm. Not all
:42:57. > :43:01.leaders in Soviet Republics agreed. TRANSLATION: I believe it was
:43:01. > :43:11.Yeltsin that brought up the idea in conversation, how about meeting
:43:11. > :43:12.
:43:12. > :43:17.without Gorbachev, and we agreed to meet in Belarus.
:43:17. > :43:24.During an informal gathering, in a remote hunting lodge, deep in the
:43:24. > :43:30.forest, the three Presidents, from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, dealt
:43:30. > :43:35.a final blow to Gorbachev, and the entire Soviet Union. TRANSLATION:
:43:35. > :43:42.Boris Yeltsin said would you agree to the Soviet Union ending its
:43:42. > :43:46.existence, I said OK and the others said OK too.
:43:46. > :43:52.It only really dawned on me afterwards when the car came to
:43:52. > :43:56.take me home, what we had done. was decided that Belarus President,
:43:56. > :44:04.Stanislau Shushkevich, should break the news to Gorbachev, while Boris
:44:04. > :44:08.Yeltsin announced it to the world. TRANSLATION: When they finally put
:44:08. > :44:13.me through to Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin was already on the phone to
:44:13. > :44:18.Bush. I told him, and he said can you imagine what the outside world
:44:18. > :44:21.will think of this, and in other words, you idiots for getting
:44:21. > :44:27.involved in it. I said actually Boris Yeltsin is speaking to
:44:27. > :44:37.President Bush right now. On the other end of the phone there
:44:37. > :44:38.
:44:38. > :44:44.was a silence, and then he hung up. Gorbachev had no choice but to
:44:44. > :44:50.resign. After six yeerts in power, he went on tell - years in power,
:44:50. > :44:59.he went on television for the last time as President of the Soviet
:44:59. > :45:03.Union. The red flag came down. Replaced by the Russian tricolour.
:45:03. > :45:11.Boris Yeltsin, President of Russia was in charge now. He and Gorbachev
:45:11. > :45:19.never spoke again. Abroad Gorbachev is still praised for ending the
:45:19. > :45:25.Cold War. In Berlin they greet him as a hero for his part in reuniting
:45:25. > :45:31.Germany. The communist old guard, from East
:45:31. > :45:41.Germany and the Soviet Union, live on only on a mural on the Berlin
:45:41. > :45:42.
:45:42. > :45:51.Wall. Nowadays it is a current Kremlin ruler whom Gorbachev cet
:45:51. > :45:56.sizes, he likens - criticise, he likens Putin's hold on the country
:45:56. > :46:03.to Brezhnev cease. TRANSLATION: Russia should be a country of
:46:03. > :46:07.stability, but stability kills stagnation.
:46:07. > :46:12.I think they have blown it with democracy. The electoral system we
:46:12. > :46:22.had was nothing remarkable, but they have simply castrated it. I
:46:22. > :46:24.
:46:24. > :46:29.apologise for my choice of words, but they really have circumcised it.
:46:29. > :46:36.20 years on, the Soviet leader who changed the world had lost an
:46:36. > :46:42.empire, but insists he still has a role. Sending the alarm about
:46:42. > :46:46.Russia's fragile democracy before it's too late.
:46:46. > :46:50.You can see more of that interview with Mikhail Gorbachev in two films
:46:50. > :46:54.this weekend on the BBC News Channel. We will bring you the
:46:54. > :46:57.front pages of the papers in one second. A quick update on the story
:46:57. > :47:04.we ran last night, about Richmond council in London putting a young
:47:04. > :47:09.defendant in their care in a Premier Inn, we put on the
:47:09. > :47:16.programme that the defendant was on remand at the time. Richmond
:47:16. > :47:26.council say he was not on remand but put in the hotel after a court
:47:26. > :47:43.
:47:43. > :47:52.hearing because the council Some people Geithnering in with A-
:47:52. > :48:01.star grades because - some people not getting in with A-star grade
:48:01. > :48:06.because of places so tight. That's Hello there, summer makes a brief
:48:06. > :48:09.return on Friday. Most of us having a fine day. It will start off a bit
:48:09. > :48:16.chilly a few showers in north-east Scotland. Grey day in Northern
:48:16. > :48:22.Ireland with outbreaks of rain. Overall expects spells of sunshine,
:48:22. > :48:28.hazy later on. Temperatures up to 19-20. A dryer brighter day across
:48:28. > :48:32.southern counties of England and East Anglia. Dorset affected by the
:48:32. > :48:35.flooding today. Sunny spells across the far South-West. Cloud
:48:35. > :48:39.increasing in Wales, sunshine turning hazy. Overall it will be
:48:39. > :48:43.dry and bright. It will be cloudy in Northern Ireland. Not much
:48:43. > :48:47.sunshine on offer here, there will, at times, be outbreaks of rain,
:48:47. > :48:52.particularly in the west. Some of that rain may work its way into the
:48:52. > :48:56.far west of Scotland. Most of Scotland looking dry and bright,
:48:56. > :49:00.the morning showers tending to fizzle out by the afternoon. Some
:49:00. > :49:05.uncertainty by the weekend, parts of northern England and the
:49:05. > :49:08.Midlands will see outbreaks of rain. Showers across the Highlands, some
:49:08. > :49:12.of the rain across the Midlands may affect parts of Wales and the south
:49:12. > :49:17.west. At the moment it looks like south-east England will be dry. It