:00:10. > :00:16.Tonight, armed insurrection in Syria, how close is the country to
:00:16. > :00:20.outright civil war? President Assad's opponents have
:00:20. > :00:24.weapons and man power, but are they anything like strong enough to
:00:24. > :00:30.bring him down. One of the few journalists to operate undercover
:00:30. > :00:33.in Syria, examines who the Free Syria Army are.
:00:34. > :00:37.Nearly 200 are arrested as The Oxford Murders Wall Street group
:00:37. > :00:43.march on New York, what will the movement change? We will hear from
:00:43. > :00:47.a supporter in New York a former Goldman Sachs banker. After the
:00:47. > :00:51.insults, accusations and the crass interventions of the FIFA chief. We
:00:51. > :00:57.examine whether English football really does have a problem with
:00:57. > :01:01.racism. I had a letter from Crystal Palace, it said we don't want any
:01:01. > :01:05.black people here, stay away but "N", we have a bullet for you.
:01:05. > :01:13.Scientists can work out which events are caused by global warming,
:01:13. > :01:17.and how it could all end up in the courts.
:01:17. > :01:23.Is Syria on the brink of civil war? After months of Government
:01:23. > :01:27.oppression, the fightback has started in ernest. The Free Syrian
:01:27. > :01:30.Army is taking on as an opposition force and means business, and
:01:30. > :01:33.crucially is able to use military force against President Assad's
:01:33. > :01:39.forces. Nobody knows about the group, who funds it, who are the
:01:39. > :01:47.members, and will it be able to overthrow the dictator whose
:01:47. > :01:49.dynasty has clung on to power in this state for decades. Sue Lloyd-
:01:49. > :01:52.Roberts is one of the few journalists who has worked
:01:52. > :01:57.undercover in the country, here is her report.
:01:57. > :02:01.It had been business as usual in Syria today, demonstrations taking
:02:01. > :02:04.place throughout the country, the army opening fire, and an ever-
:02:04. > :02:09.increasing death toll. After the last bloody few days, the number of
:02:09. > :02:17.dead is now greater than the 3,500 announced by the United Nations
:02:17. > :02:22.last week. In Homs, the so-called capital of
:02:22. > :02:27.the revolution, tanks and heavy weapons have continued to bombard
:02:27. > :02:30.civilian areas. And many have been killed, even after, angry
:02:30. > :02:34.condemnation from Syria's neighbours and beyond. Since I
:02:34. > :02:38.reported from Homs four weeks ago, where I was able to mingle freely
:02:38. > :02:41.with the demonstrators, the situation has deteriorated
:02:41. > :02:46.dramatically. With the recent new international condemnation, people
:02:46. > :02:50.are beginning to talk about the beginning of the end of the
:02:50. > :02:54.Government of Bashar al-Assad. But if that is the case, how will the
:02:54. > :02:59.regime be toppled? What will take its place? The nature of the
:02:59. > :03:06.protest has been altered by a now defiant and widespread armed
:03:06. > :03:10.resistance. The newly formed Free Syrian Army, claim to number
:03:10. > :03:14.between 10,000-15,000, they post their defections and alleged
:03:14. > :03:19.victories on YouTube. The odd tank seized from the regular army, and
:03:19. > :03:23.in their boldest move yet, yesterday an attack on an army
:03:23. > :03:27.intelligence base near Damascus. They are getting weapons smuggled
:03:27. > :03:32.in from Lebanon. I put to their leader that daily defections is one
:03:32. > :03:36.thing, but military experts say they can't make a real impact,
:03:37. > :03:44.until they get a tank division come over to their side. TRANSLATION:
:03:44. > :03:47.until now we have only been small groups of defectors from army units,
:03:47. > :03:51.there hasn't been anything bigger, as you say, because we do not have
:03:51. > :03:56.a secure area where we can keep tanks. If we had a buffer zone, we
:03:56. > :04:02.would see defections on a bigger scale. REPORTER: What legitimacy do
:04:02. > :04:06.you have, the regime would say you are a rebel trait rouse army?
:04:06. > :04:10.TRANSLATION: It is far as the Syrian people are concerned, the
:04:10. > :04:14.Syrian regime is the illegitimate one, we earned our legitimacy from
:04:14. > :04:21.the street and demonstrations. In all demonstrations now you can see
:04:21. > :04:24.people support the Free Syrian Army. The demonstrations appear to be
:04:24. > :04:29.increasing in number around the country and they are becoming
:04:29. > :04:33.bolder and more inclusive. Today we see many more women, students and
:04:33. > :04:38.children joining the protest. The regime has always claimed that the
:04:38. > :04:43.big cities, like Damascus, have not so far joined in, in big numbers.
:04:43. > :04:53.When I spoke to a local opposition leader in Damascus today, she
:04:53. > :04:57.
:04:57. > :05:02.denied this. Many areas inside Damascus witnessed huge
:05:02. > :05:07.demonstrations. Many people filled in the places. Every day there is
:05:07. > :05:12.daily protests in all these areas. Opposition leaders also claim that
:05:12. > :05:17.the protest is uniting sectarian divisions in Syria. It is not just
:05:17. > :05:23.the Sunni majority rebelling against President Assad's Alawites
:05:23. > :05:29.elite. But they say Christians, and Kurds, all want to see the fall of
:05:29. > :05:32.the regime. That says one Marionite Christian, living in neighbouring
:05:32. > :05:36.Lebanon, is too simplified a story, there have been sectarian killings
:05:36. > :05:41.by opposition groups, which bode ill for the future. We are also
:05:41. > :05:44.witnessing some elements of civil war. You know Sue, and I think you
:05:44. > :05:51.know we have witnessed many sectarian killings in Syria in the
:05:51. > :05:55.last few weeks, civilians being killed. Both the regime and the
:05:55. > :05:59.armed insurgency have carried out executions of civilians. So the
:05:59. > :06:05.reality is we are seeing the beginning, but yet, if Syria
:06:05. > :06:11.plunges into a prolonged conflict, there is a, I think, a likelihood,
:06:11. > :06:14.that this particular armed conflict could take on sectarian and tribal
:06:14. > :06:22.conotations, and basically spread into neighbouring countries. The
:06:22. > :06:25.reason why millions of Syrians in Damascus and the areas have not
:06:25. > :06:30.joined the protests so fashion they fear the morning after, they fear
:06:30. > :06:39.Syria could go the Iraq and Lebanon way. I'm not the only one saying no
:06:39. > :06:45.so. Millions of Syrians fear this political struggle could escalate
:06:45. > :06:52.into all-out civil war. The Free Syrian Army is appealing to the
:06:52. > :06:58.United Nations for more weapons, and a no-fly zone so they can
:06:58. > :07:02.operate in it. How long do they give the dictator? TRANSLATION:
:07:02. > :07:05.give it months, the army is struggling economically, and
:07:05. > :07:09.soldiers are exhausted after eight months on the streets. That comes
:07:09. > :07:13.from an army pleading for weapons for what they say could be a quick
:07:13. > :07:16.solution to a problem that is beginning to frighten the outside
:07:16. > :07:21.world. The word from the street, and from those living in
:07:21. > :07:26.neighbouring countries, is that there is no immediate end in sight.
:07:26. > :07:35.The reality is, I think, now, my take and I hope I am wrong, is that
:07:35. > :07:38.Syria has reached a point of no return. Joining me now are two
:07:38. > :07:42.Syrian opposition representatives, speaking for the Syrian National
:07:42. > :07:48.Council, the leading coalition of Syrian opposition groups, joining
:07:48. > :07:54.me from Paris, and a founding member of Building The Syrian State,
:07:54. > :07:58.a separate opposition group. I want to start with you, why do
:07:58. > :08:01.you remain outside what is seen by many as the best chance that Syria
:08:01. > :08:09.has now of comprehensively overthrowing the regime? What do
:08:09. > :08:14.you mean we are still outside? do you remain outside, you know,
:08:14. > :08:19.the main Syrian National Council, which is seen as the body for doing
:08:19. > :08:25.that? I think the Syrian opposition map is far more spread and complex
:08:25. > :08:27.than just one single body in coalition. They are an important
:08:27. > :08:31.player but not the only player. There are far more important ones
:08:31. > :08:35.on the ground, inside Syria, those who are playing on the battleground.
:08:36. > :08:41.These are the groups I support and I work with. I think they have a
:08:41. > :08:46.better chance to evaluate where the balance of the forces is, and reach
:08:46. > :08:49.the situation from inside. I respect their views. Their means
:08:49. > :08:54.are more coming from inside. The solutions they put forward are
:08:54. > :08:58.coming from inside Syria. We want it to be supported from the outside.
:08:58. > :09:03.We are happy to work with the SNC, we don't necessarily have to join,
:09:04. > :09:11.we can work on common plans. Why does the whole Syrian opposition
:09:11. > :09:16.have to go under one umbrella. does it have to? Go under
:09:16. > :09:20.unumbrelia, other places have been overthrown without coalitions.
:09:20. > :09:22.that right you can have disparate groups and separate groups, you
:09:22. > :09:27.don't need to be a unified opposition at this point? I think
:09:27. > :09:32.it is a bit unfair to expect that there would be 100% of the
:09:32. > :09:38.opposition standing together. However, I think the case in Syria
:09:38. > :09:43.is different from Egypt and Tunisia, because of the complexties of
:09:43. > :09:48.Syrian society, but also of the regional environment. For that
:09:48. > :09:53.reason there is much anxiety inside the country and much anxiety among
:09:53. > :10:01.neighbours, that things could go the wrong way, if the regime were
:10:01. > :10:04.to go. I think the regime is today, the main responsible for the
:10:04. > :10:09.direction that the issues, that the situation is taking on the ground,
:10:09. > :10:12.and if we are speaking of risks of civil war, this is the
:10:12. > :10:18.responsibility, this has been actively encouraged by the regime.
:10:18. > :10:21.But we need an opposition, I think this is why we are working on
:10:21. > :10:28.unifying ranks. We need an opposition that presents the
:10:28. > :10:31.country, the people, those who are frightened, as well as the outside,
:10:31. > :10:34.with an alternative. An alternative that says all of these political
:10:35. > :10:40.groups have come together around one objective. This objective is
:10:40. > :10:45.the overthrowing of the regime. get to that objective, sorry, is it
:10:45. > :10:50.necessary to have armed force s that the only way you will do this?
:10:50. > :10:55.Obviously I think what is happening on the ground is the absence of a
:10:55. > :10:59.political plan, put forward by a strong, powerful, unified
:10:59. > :11:02.opposition. This is what needs to be actively done, and this is what
:11:02. > :11:06.is currently under way. The unification of ranks between the
:11:07. > :11:14.main groups of the opposition, coming out with one joint objective,
:11:14. > :11:18.but not only an objective, but also a road map. How to go about doing
:11:18. > :11:21.that what are the concrete steps to take. What is the way forward for
:11:21. > :11:25.the end of this regime. Understanding that this common
:11:25. > :11:29.objective is what the street wants, is what the revolution, forces on
:11:29. > :11:34.the ground, people on the ground are asking for the end of this
:11:34. > :11:38.regime, the end of President Bashar al-Assad himself. The objectives
:11:38. > :11:42.are clearly the same. What about the Free Syrian Army, what position
:11:42. > :11:46.would they play in this? I can't determine their position.
:11:46. > :11:52.asking this in the studio? I don't think I can determine their
:11:52. > :11:56.position. I mean, you know, the army won't listen to me, won't
:11:56. > :12:00.listen probably to other politicians. They have their own
:12:00. > :12:05.tools, and means. We are trying to argue for a political process.
:12:05. > :12:11.However, I would like to follow up on what was argued. I totally agree,
:12:11. > :12:16.we need a road map to unite around. You promised studies, papers, two
:12:16. > :12:20.months on, we haven't seen one single political paper issued by
:12:20. > :12:26.the SNC, if there was something to unite around we could have united
:12:26. > :12:30.around it. You promised a road map, we haven't heard back from you,
:12:30. > :12:34.personally we sent e-mails we haven't heard yes and no, how with
:12:34. > :12:38.can we unite when you don't respond to a discussion about a unified
:12:38. > :12:42.plan. In the Libyan scenario, there was a clear forward case, there was
:12:43. > :12:45.a military action, everyone got around that. There isn't a clear
:12:46. > :12:49.way forward. That is a pretty strong allegation for the Syrian
:12:49. > :12:52.National Council, that you don't have a game plan or way forward,
:12:52. > :12:58.and you are not even responding to the kind of communication channels
:12:58. > :13:01.open to you? The plan was put to me personally and I, as the Syrian
:13:01. > :13:06.National Council, can cannot respond personally, it has no value
:13:06. > :13:11.if I put forward a plan. A plan was put forward about three weeks ago
:13:11. > :13:14.now. A programme and a vision of how to go about the transition
:13:14. > :13:20.phase and the building of new institutions. There is a vision,
:13:20. > :13:25.and there is a plan that was put out, and we may not have seen that,
:13:25. > :13:30.if I can send it to her I will, after we finish this programme.
:13:30. > :13:36.Just to say this programme was put forward, it obviously take as bit
:13:36. > :13:40.longer than a small and coherent political group that came together
:13:40. > :13:44.in Syria, the council is a coalition, do not forget that. The
:13:44. > :13:48.coalition is all the political forces are there, the Islamists,
:13:48. > :13:57.the secular, liberals and left- wingers, all of this needs time,
:13:57. > :14:01.and that vision has now, is now on the table. Thank you very much.
:14:01. > :14:05.They call themselves the 99 per cent, the protestors who have taken
:14:05. > :14:11.to call street and attempted to march on the New York Stock
:14:12. > :14:16.Exchange, calling for an end to the inequality that is seeing bankers,
:14:16. > :14:20.the 1%, flourish at the expense of the rest of the population. They
:14:20. > :14:23.have brought the skrisism of rich and poor and say it is getting
:14:23. > :14:27.wider. Today dozens of Occupy Wall Street were arrested at a rally to
:14:27. > :14:30.mark two months of demonstrations. The rally comes on the same day,
:14:30. > :14:35.coincidently, that Northern Rock, the first bank to be nationalised
:14:35. > :14:40.in Britain, was sold at a loss to the taxpayer of at least �400
:14:40. > :14:43.million. Our economics editor is with me now. How are we to make
:14:44. > :14:49.sense of the deal? The deal has to be understood in the context of
:14:49. > :14:53.what happened on nationalisation. They split Northern Rock into and
:14:53. > :14:57.good and bad bank. We have a graphic to explain it. The good
:14:57. > :15:06.bank was sold today, this is the bit that is still trading and has
:15:06. > :15:11.branches and looks for customers to Virgin Money. For about �1. ...well
:15:11. > :15:16.it was told for �850 million and another �850 million for details.
:15:16. > :15:23.The money the Government put into the bank was �1.4 billion, we can
:15:23. > :15:27.say it is nearly a �400 million loss. The bad bank shows you where
:15:27. > :15:30.the challenge is. There is about �45 billion of mortgages, these are
:15:31. > :15:36.mortgages in some way distressed or not great, they didn't want to put
:15:36. > :15:40.them in a good bit. That is propped up with �20 billion worth of UK
:15:40. > :15:44.tax-payers' money, that in the last six months we know about to July
:15:44. > :15:47.had rising arrears, rising danger of default among the mortgage
:15:47. > :15:51.holders. One can't imagine it has got any better in the last six
:15:51. > :15:55.months. We will only know what happens to our �20 billion when we
:15:56. > :15:59.see what happens to the financial crisis. That, as we know, is not
:15:59. > :16:03.over. It is funny, isn't it, each time we are asked to look ahead, is
:16:03. > :16:08.there any sense in your mind that this marks the end of what was
:16:08. > :16:12.started in 2007? We both covered that day, that Northern Rock went
:16:12. > :16:16.bust, if you remember the people in the queues. Think about it, they
:16:16. > :16:18.had seven years of rising house prices, they had four years of
:16:18. > :16:24.rising stock markets, and that sounds like a reasonably long time
:16:24. > :16:27.to get into the mind set of what can go wrong. We have now had four
:16:27. > :16:32.years since Northern Rock went bust, we have had four unrelenting years
:16:32. > :16:35.of crisis, what we know from every headline we see is it is not over.
:16:35. > :16:40.We are expecting further trouble in the European banks, we are
:16:40. > :16:43.expecting trouble in the European sovereign debt market. We are
:16:43. > :16:47.expecting, there is a danger, let's not say expecting, there is a
:16:47. > :16:51.danger that the world will stagnate, or parts of it go once again into
:16:51. > :16:55.recession. This forms the context of what we are now seeing, which is
:16:55. > :17:01.not queues of happyish but resigned people outside busted banks, but
:17:01. > :17:05.what we are about to see. Which is, just coincidently, a whole bunch of
:17:05. > :17:12.iconic images of protest that happened today that I think are
:17:12. > :17:15.becoming the signature tune of 2011. If these were images from some
:17:15. > :17:21.forlorn revolution, in some snaul small forgotten state, they would
:17:21. > :17:26.be striking enough. But this was Portland Oregon today, and this
:17:26. > :17:33.downtown Los Angeles, and on Wall Street, where the US protest
:17:33. > :17:37.movement began, anger. Move, move! The Oxford Murders Wall Street
:17:37. > :17:47.protestors marched on Wall Street, blocked the financial district, and
:17:47. > :17:47.
:17:47. > :17:51.clashed with the police. A few on- looking bankers unimpressed. The
:17:51. > :17:55.Twittersphere exploded, peoples per second dropping news, views and
:17:55. > :17:58.accusations, too fast to follow. To an audience across the world, the
:17:58. > :18:02.message behind it all, defiant. They can take the park, they can
:18:02. > :18:06.arrest people, but they can't arrest an idea. But what is the
:18:06. > :18:10.idea? The protestors have refused to engage with the game of
:18:10. > :18:15.political programmes and demands. They have focused on grievances
:18:15. > :18:19.against banks, against inequality, against the 1%. Now, those in power
:18:19. > :18:27.are listening. This, the Senate Majority Leader. We know all that
:18:27. > :18:30.has been said about the 1 how well they have been doing. -- 1%, how
:18:30. > :18:35.well they are doing. The percentage in wealth in America for them has
:18:35. > :18:40.gone up 300%. In Britain it is less spectacular, but what the
:18:40. > :18:44.protestors at St Paul's share with counterparts in New York, is a
:18:44. > :18:48.refusal to articulate political programmes and demands. A refusal
:18:48. > :18:53.to confront power on power's terms. Tonight the Cathedral authorities
:18:53. > :18:57.resumed court action to evict the protest, after a two-week legal
:18:57. > :19:02.truce broke down. The scenes in Athens tonight, the anniversary of
:19:02. > :19:07.the revolution that overthrew the military junta in 1973, had, for
:19:07. > :19:11.some, echos of 1973. This in Madrid, where on the eve of an election,
:19:11. > :19:16.tens of thousands of students marches against education cuts.
:19:16. > :19:21.These are becoming the symbolic images of 2011. If we thought it
:19:21. > :19:24.had begun in Tunis, and ended in Tripoli, we thought wrong.
:19:24. > :19:27.Joining me now from New York is the journalist and activist, Laurie
:19:27. > :19:31.Penny, she was out on the streets today, with The Oxford Murders
:19:31. > :19:35.protestors. Joining me in the studio was Richard Sharp, a former
:19:35. > :19:39.partner at Goldman Sachs, one of four City figures recruited last
:19:39. > :19:43.year by George Osborne to consult on options for reducing the public
:19:43. > :19:46.deficit. Richard Sharp, you visited both these movements, you must be
:19:46. > :19:51.pretty impressed with how they have managed to influence mainstream
:19:51. > :19:56.politics now, aren't you? Well, I was actually disappointed with the
:19:56. > :20:01.demonstrations themselves, in some way. Because there is a generation
:20:01. > :20:05.which does have to care deeply about their future, which is being
:20:05. > :20:10.damaged by the activities of the last 15 years, of Governments and
:20:10. > :20:14.commerce. It has left a legacy of debt and problems that they are
:20:14. > :20:18.experiencing, in seeking employment, and facing a future where they will
:20:18. > :20:21.have to repay the debts associated with expenditure, for which they
:20:21. > :20:27.got no benefit. What are you saying, they are doing the right thing
:20:27. > :20:31.protesting, surely? I thought the demonstrations certainly in New
:20:31. > :20:39.York was, for my mind, at that time, this is only ten days ago, was
:20:39. > :20:43.chaotic and glass sid. It was a tourist - glass sid, it was a
:20:43. > :20:45.tourist spectacle more than protesters. The points made were
:20:45. > :20:48.trivial, there are substantive points but they were not made when
:20:48. > :20:55.I was there. What do you make of that, a demonstration that was
:20:55. > :20:59.chaotic and flaccid? That may have been the scene a dau days ago, but
:20:59. > :21:03.after the eviction of Occupy Wall Street on Tuesday nationwide. The
:21:03. > :21:07.energy has been galvanised again, there were thousands on the streets
:21:07. > :21:13.today. A lot of angry chanting. Banks got bailed out, we got sold
:21:13. > :21:17.out. I saw people on the streets being violently arrested, a lot of
:21:18. > :21:21.anger. There was certainly energy, and not only broad and sweeping
:21:21. > :21:25.ideas for social change, not unified ideas, certainly, but there
:21:25. > :21:29.was also a wonderful moment which I hope someone has captured on camera,
:21:29. > :21:33.where people sat down in the middle of one of the occupied streets and
:21:33. > :21:37.started sharing stories. One woman saying her home had been
:21:37. > :21:40.repossessed, and another public school teacher saying all her
:21:40. > :21:43.students' parents were unemployed. Students, families, workers,
:21:43. > :21:47.everyone coming together to share their stories. This is really what
:21:47. > :21:50.the day has been about, partly. I want to make it clear it wasn't
:21:50. > :21:56.just scenes of violence and of police brutality on the streets.
:21:56. > :22:01.There was also a lot of hope. A lot of joyful defiance, which I think
:22:02. > :22:05.is one of the very important things. What do you make of the fact, then,
:22:05. > :22:09.that despite this joyful defiance, as you put it, broadly there is
:22:10. > :22:15.less public sympathy for you as the protests go on. People are losing
:22:15. > :22:19.faith in you, and finding the demonstrations annoying? 35% of the
:22:19. > :22:25.American public still support The Oxford Murders Wall Street movement,
:22:25. > :22:33.and The Oxford Murders movement. I find it rather disheartening that
:22:33. > :22:39.after about a year of -- the Occupy movement, and find it rather
:22:39. > :22:42.disheartening that you, as a journalist, find it nothing more
:22:43. > :22:47.than an annoyance, this is more than a generation trying to turn
:22:47. > :22:51.around and refigure politics, after having been told all their lives
:22:51. > :22:55.that there is nothing to do to confront capitalism. Broadly, they
:22:55. > :22:57.have managed to bring wealth inequality to the top of the agenda,
:22:57. > :23:01.they have properly spooked President Obama, they have made
:23:02. > :23:05.David Cameron take a very strong stance on bankers' bonuses here.
:23:05. > :23:08.Angela Merkel's talking about the Tobin tax. It doesn't sound that
:23:08. > :23:14.chaotic when you look at how the politicians around the world are
:23:14. > :23:20.responding? Look, we're facing a global economic crisis, that some
:23:20. > :23:25.leading Central Bankers have called unprecedented. What is remarkable
:23:25. > :23:31.is that you have these tiny pockets of people, where it hasn't gathered
:23:31. > :23:35.more momentum, given some of the real pep pep pri vaigs associated
:23:35. > :23:38.with unemployment d deprivation associated with unemployment and
:23:38. > :23:42.the crisis. What would you like to see them doing? There are multiple
:23:42. > :23:46.problems. First of all, the leadership is distributed and not
:23:46. > :23:50.apparent at all. They have damaged their cause by making the cleaning
:23:50. > :23:56.up of the park, and the behaviour that has taken place a bigger story
:23:56. > :24:00.than their objectives. What they have talked about is what they are
:24:00. > :24:05.against, but not what they are for Let's put that to Laurie Penny,
:24:05. > :24:09.what would you like to see changed, in terms of concrete policies, what
:24:09. > :24:14.are you for? I can't speak for The Oxford Murders movement as a whole.
:24:14. > :24:24.I'm just -- the Occupy movement as a whole. I'm just an individual
:24:24. > :24:26.
:24:26. > :24:29.associated with the movement. A lot of the movement is for change. In
:24:29. > :24:33.Wall Street, for example, many of the people down on the streets are
:24:33. > :24:37.people who spent a lot of their young lives voting and working for
:24:37. > :24:41.the Obama campaign, these were people promised change at the hands
:24:41. > :24:44.of left-wing politicians, or centre left politicians, and now they are
:24:44. > :24:46.seeing that change is something you have to stand up and take for
:24:46. > :24:51.yourselves. Because politicians, at the moment, they don't see that
:24:51. > :24:56.they are going to deliver it. does that mean, does that mean they
:24:56. > :25:01.want a change to the change Obama promise, they are anti-Obama, or
:25:01. > :25:05.anti-capitalism, what does it mean in defining, tangible terms? Well,
:25:05. > :25:11.there are some people down there, for example, who want to see a
:25:11. > :25:14.return of the certain acts there are some people who want to impose
:25:14. > :25:19.a very limited tax on the wealthy. Some people are asking for
:25:19. > :25:29.revolutionary change, some people are asking just for a little bit
:25:29. > :25:29.
:25:29. > :25:32.oflyway, little leeway, and asking that we don't have to pay for the
:25:32. > :25:34.financial recklessness of the superrich. I don't think that is a
:25:34. > :25:42.big thing to ask. One of the reasons you are not hearing an
:25:42. > :25:45.answer, is because this is, in some sense, in a positive way, a -- an
:25:45. > :25:50.argument of the left. The real problem they have is the target
:25:50. > :25:56.should be socialism, in other words, it should be Governments that spent
:25:56. > :26:02.money they didn't have, that...That Is absolute nonsense, excuse me,
:26:02. > :26:07.that is absolute nonsense. We have a massive deficit across the world
:26:07. > :26:11.because of a financial crisis that occurred three years ago and was
:26:11. > :26:14.building up for many years, it was not overspending, we don't have
:26:14. > :26:18.debt because of the public sector, we don't have debt because we spent
:26:18. > :26:22.too much on public services. We have debt because the superrich and
:26:22. > :26:25.the banks were allowed to run rampent with public money that
:26:25. > :26:33.didn't really exist creating bad debts, this is basic check
:26:33. > :26:37.economics. Both of you, the debts of Government are Government debts.
:26:37. > :26:41.What we're talking about is politicians, in seeking popularity,
:26:41. > :26:45.spending money that they didn't have. Part of that debt is bailing
:26:45. > :26:48.out the banks during the crisis? The debts of Government are
:26:48. > :26:51.Government debts. Having false accounting themselves from the
:26:51. > :26:57.Government. Let's just hear Richard's point. We have seen that
:26:57. > :27:00.right across Europe. The scale of the debt that the Governments
:27:00. > :27:03.occurred -- incurred to gain popularity did two things, a stock
:27:03. > :27:07.of debt the Governments have to repay which they are afraid they
:27:07. > :27:11.can't. Secondly, this is most important, it damaged the private
:27:11. > :27:16.sector at a time when we have global competition. Germany has no
:27:16. > :27:19.problem right now. Germany has full employment. You said they bought
:27:19. > :27:23.the popularity, that was what their debt was spent on. The debt was
:27:23. > :27:33.spent, surely, partly, on saving the financial sector from complete
:27:33. > :27:35.
:27:35. > :27:39.collapse in the Liamman years? -- Lehman years? That is part of it,
:27:39. > :27:45.but what you had was an irresponsible politicians,
:27:45. > :27:51.responsible for the debt, Ed Milliband, talking about the need
:27:51. > :27:55.for responsible capitalism. The Governments have to face up to
:27:55. > :27:58.their irresponsibility. This is complete non-sen, you are talking
:27:58. > :28:02.in a local context about a financial crisis that is global. I
:28:02. > :28:06.can't believe a former banker is sitting here and telling me,
:28:07. > :28:10.peddling out this Tory line that this is the Labour Government's
:28:10. > :28:15.problem. I'm no fan of the Labour Government. Greece, Portugal,
:28:15. > :28:19.Ireland, Spain, France Italy. is nonsense. This is no way to talk
:28:19. > :28:26.about a financial crisis. The banks are kidding themselves if they
:28:26. > :28:31.think we are fooled. Silvio Berlusconi may be gone, but
:28:31. > :28:35.his buffoons gaffe-laden spirit would seem to live on in the form
:28:35. > :28:39.of FIFA head, Sepp Blatter, his latest salvo, that racism on the
:28:39. > :28:42.football pitch could be settled by a good-natureed handshake, has been
:28:42. > :28:46.met with ridicule and calls for his resignation, tonight even from
:28:46. > :28:51.David Cameron. His words have once again re-opened the debate on
:28:51. > :28:57.racism in football. As two English players phase accusations of racism
:28:57. > :29:01.towards fellow players. We ask tonight if the game, while being
:29:01. > :29:04.mull national and multirationale, does it still have a problem. How
:29:04. > :29:10.racist is football, in England the game isn't what it was. For that we
:29:10. > :29:14.should all be grateful. There is no doubt football has changed since
:29:14. > :29:18.the noxious 1970s and 1980. Football Association has agreed to
:29:18. > :29:24.investigate charges that racialist groups are using the terraces of
:29:24. > :29:29.some league clubs as a recruiting ground. Back then English crowds
:29:29. > :29:34.delighted in jeering black players, and the banter carried a vicious
:29:34. > :29:40.edge. Here we are in the dwindling days of 2011 and England's captain
:29:40. > :29:50.is captured on camera, now all over the Internet, oh aye what's that
:29:50. > :29:53.
:29:54. > :29:59.then parently calling an opponenting an "f-ing black ". John
:29:59. > :30:04.Terry denies racism, he says the words he used were "I never called
:30:04. > :30:09.you an F-ing black and all the rest", he says the denying was
:30:09. > :30:13.hidden by a colleague walking in front of the lens.
:30:13. > :30:15.Mark Bright is a former player who says he's shocked by the
:30:15. > :30:20.allegations against John Terry, because football has been
:30:20. > :30:24.transformed in the last 20 years. But racism still rears up in
:30:24. > :30:30.certain contexts. It is still there, it is still there. It has been
:30:30. > :30:34.suppressed, I think, the social networking sites now are, the boys
:30:34. > :30:44.are on that, the black guys, they say things, it is racist abuse that
:30:44. > :30:47.comes back, not abuse, not banter, racist abuse, from Stan Collymore,
:30:47. > :30:51.Rio Ferdinand, and others, the police are investigating those
:30:51. > :30:55.things. That may say more about internet trolls than football.
:30:55. > :31:00.Racists have had to move on-line, because they have largely lost the
:31:00. > :31:05.forum of the English football crowd. What happened? The stereotype of
:31:05. > :31:10.the unintelligent and lazy black footballer was undermined bit
:31:10. > :31:14.performances on the pitch, by outstanding players like John
:31:14. > :31:19.Barnes, and others, I think also football took a very strong,
:31:19. > :31:24.hardline stand against racism. It was policed by the stew wards, the
:31:24. > :31:27.fans took ownership of it to a certain extent. Over time, this
:31:27. > :31:31.particular approach reaped dividends. Iconic figures within
:31:31. > :31:37.football stood up and said this is an absurd ideology, something we
:31:37. > :31:41.hate and disagree with. Slowly and surely the culture within football
:31:41. > :31:46.has changed. The situation today is far superior, unimagineably so to
:31:46. > :31:51.what it was 20 or 30 years ago. sophistication heralded by foreign
:31:51. > :31:59.imports, has just introduced a new problem. Luis Suarez, a brilliant
:31:59. > :32:03.arrival from Euro-guy, has been charged with the FA for racially
:32:03. > :32:08.abusing a Patrice Evra, he says he called him Nig rito, but says in
:32:08. > :32:14.Spanish it is a term of endearment. The FA, who struggle with the
:32:14. > :32:20.offside trap, must determine linguistic nuance and intent. Sepp
:32:20. > :32:27.Blatter is apparently blind to such subtlies, his comment that racism
:32:27. > :32:33.taunts should be finished with post match handshakes. He says he's
:32:33. > :32:43.misunderstood. Rio Ferdinand, brother of the one of the victims
:32:43. > :32:46.
:32:46. > :32:50.John Barnes fought the good fight, winning major victories in the
:32:50. > :32:57.1980s, his talent and charm killed off racism in the Liverpool crowd,
:32:57. > :33:02.and shamed others. It was Barnes, who disDanefully backhealed a
:33:02. > :33:08.banana. I was playing for Liverpool against Everton, that is an iconic
:33:08. > :33:13.image, obviously from a negative point of view. I had experienced it
:33:13. > :33:18.years before, at West Ham, Millwall, because it wasn't a high-profile
:33:18. > :33:22.incident nothing was made of it. Any black player in the 1980s,
:33:22. > :33:29.would have been through that. Bright, knows about the bad old
:33:29. > :33:33.days. I had a letter, they don't want any black Bs here, and there
:33:33. > :33:37.is a bullet for you. I kept the letter, and I thought look at the
:33:37. > :33:42.attitude of the people it is out there. You didn't go to Everton?
:33:42. > :33:46.didn't go to Everton for because of the letter, but going there as the
:33:46. > :33:50.first black player, it wasn't successful for enough for me to go.
:33:50. > :33:56.For all the allegations and the mess of Mr Blatter, times have
:33:56. > :34:03.changed. Watch this from 1984. John Barnes was a star at Cup Finalists
:34:03. > :34:10.Watford. Because # No woman no cry. Michael Barrymore on a BBC preview,
:34:10. > :34:13.played his own tribute, blacked up. No trouble? # One love
:34:13. > :34:19.# Let's get together # And feel all right
:34:19. > :34:25.I'm feeling fine. Back then we supposedly all fell about
:34:25. > :34:32.laughinger or not? The tactics all done. We have tack ti, what I do if
:34:32. > :34:38.the Everton player comes towards me, hello, me Watford, then me go, we
:34:38. > :34:43.take the ball and we go like this. Peter Marshall with that report.
:34:43. > :34:46.This November, they tell us, is on track for being the warmest on
:34:46. > :34:50.record for some 350 years. Chance to become the stuff of cliche,
:34:50. > :34:55.every time the weather does something odd, we point to climate
:34:55. > :34:58.change as the explanation. How realistic is that. Tomorrow the
:34:58. > :35:02.UN's Panel on Climate Change is expected to claim it believes man
:35:02. > :35:05.made emissions are making storms, floods and droubgts more likely.
:35:05. > :35:10.Scientists believe they are getting better at working out the effects
:35:10. > :35:20.of climate change, and some can pinpoint which freak weather events
:35:20. > :35:25.are caused by global warming and which ones aren't.
:35:25. > :35:29.It is one of the hottest topics in climate science. Can humans be
:35:29. > :35:34.deemed to blame for extreme weather events. Such as last year's heat
:35:34. > :35:38.wave in Russia, or the floods that have hit the UK in recent decades.
:35:38. > :35:42.And whenever we hear news of people who have lost their lives, or their
:35:42. > :35:47.homes, after a disastrous weather event, a flood, hurricane or fires
:35:47. > :35:56.from heat wave, it is the question that sooner or later everyone asks,
:35:56. > :36:00.was it climate change or not? As London basks in a glorious mild
:36:00. > :36:05.autumn. November looks to be one of the warmest on record. It is not
:36:05. > :36:10.extreme weather event, but it is unusual. What-to-what extent can we
:36:10. > :36:16.pin this on human-induced climate change. We have had a unique record
:36:16. > :36:20.in the UK, that goes back to the 17th century. We can see there has
:36:20. > :36:25.been a general warming of a degree Celsius. We can relay that to the
:36:25. > :36:28.increasing odds of something like a mild autumn. When we do that we can
:36:29. > :36:34.make the inference that it looks likely that there is an increased
:36:34. > :36:39.chance of having a very mild autumn. Heatwaves like Europe's in 2003,
:36:39. > :36:43.and Russia last year, have increased since 1950. They are now
:36:43. > :36:46.expected to occur once every 20 years, rather than once a century.
:36:46. > :36:50.Scientists are increasingly confident these are made more
:36:50. > :36:57.likely by human-induced climate change. Extreme rainfall and floods,
:36:57. > :37:03.like those in the UK, in recent decades and drougts in the Tropics
:37:03. > :37:07.and sub tropics, have become more common since the 50s and 70s. On
:37:07. > :37:12.both, local land shape and conditions, make it less clear cut
:37:12. > :37:16.for scientists to link these to human activities. Storms are the
:37:16. > :37:21.most difficult to attribute directly to people. They involve
:37:21. > :37:26.complicated wind patterns. So, is it time to call in the lawyers?
:37:26. > :37:29.Some feel there is potential here for legal action against energy
:37:29. > :37:33.companies over damage caused by extreme weather. There is
:37:33. > :37:37.litigation in the states. It has had a checkered history. My own
:37:37. > :37:43.view is that in this country and Europe, it is not a realistic
:37:43. > :37:47.prospect in the short-term future, but if we get a failure to have
:37:47. > :37:51.international regulation, and if there is a continued large scale
:37:51. > :37:56.emission by groups of companies in the knowledge of the likely
:37:56. > :38:00.consequence, I think it is very possible in the medium or long-term.
:38:00. > :38:05.The scientific debate over the Russian fires, shows how views on
:38:05. > :38:10.the impact of human activities can differ. One paper, from a America,
:38:10. > :38:13.concluded that the record-breaking temperatures were due mainly to
:38:13. > :38:17.natural vairability, a stationary high pressure system. But in
:38:18. > :38:21.October, a second study, from Germany, concluded there is an 80%
:38:22. > :38:30.chance that the heatwave would not have occurred without human-induced
:38:30. > :38:38.climate change. Some scientists think it is the interplay between
:38:38. > :38:42.the two where the real answers are. The IPCC report is expected to say
:38:42. > :38:46.nor for the next decade or two there will be uncertainty. The
:38:46. > :38:51.effects we will be all having is small compared with natural
:38:51. > :38:54.variability. If we carry on as we are, as the century progresses, it
:38:54. > :38:58.is thought the human effects will be easier to spot. Because of our
:38:58. > :39:04.understanding in terms of how the general climate system is changing,
:39:04. > :39:08.we can start to develop reliable results about how our risk to
:39:08. > :39:14.extreme climate change has changed, even before the signal has emerged
:39:14. > :39:21.so clearly that it is utterly indisputable. Some scientists are
:39:21. > :39:26.unhappy the -- with the approach. Different models produce different
:39:26. > :39:31.results. It focuses on the meteorological hazarz, the heatwave
:39:31. > :39:37.or extreme rainfall, rather than on the damages. For example, lives
:39:37. > :39:44.lost, or costs in pounds. Such critics fear that if at tribbuegs
:39:44. > :39:48.like this goes ahead, funding -- at tribbuegs goes ahead, funding won't
:39:49. > :39:52.be at the core. This suggests we should increase the funding side of
:39:52. > :39:55.things, but societies across the world are being exposed to human
:39:55. > :40:05.and natural occuring extreme weather events. Because of that it
:40:05. > :40:10.would create a problem, It would only fund the human-induced part of
:40:10. > :40:13.extreme weather events. These scientists asked why bother trying
:40:13. > :40:18.to disenhangle human effects from natural varietyability, better,
:40:18. > :40:22.they say, to put -- vair ability, better, they say, to making sure
:40:22. > :40:32.that people everywhere can adapt to surviving the extreme coming their
:40:32. > :40:34.
:40:34. > :40:39.way. Our guests are with us. Professor Allen, are you able to
:40:39. > :40:42.say with more clarity, whether extreme weather events are caused
:40:42. > :40:45.by climate change, would you allocate resources as a result of
:40:45. > :40:48.what you know? The crucial point to understand, when we talk about
:40:48. > :40:51.extreme weather caused by climate changement we are not seeing
:40:51. > :40:55.weather events that simply could not have happened without climate
:40:55. > :41:02.change. A good analogy is given by this dice, if I role the dice here,
:41:02. > :41:10.and I get a five, I role it again, and I get a, it is not working, it
:41:10. > :41:16.never works live. That is fantastic. This is a loaded dice, not working
:41:16. > :41:26.to its potential. It is coming up sixes. Let's leave that. We are
:41:26. > :41:28.
:41:28. > :41:34.trying to, what we're doing is qantfying how much the weather --
:41:34. > :41:39.quantifying how much weather is occurring. You saw a sequence in
:41:39. > :41:44.the dice, it is the way it works with the weather. It is not that
:41:44. > :41:48.easy, but we are seeing that the weather dice being loaded towards
:41:48. > :41:51.certain events happening. Do you think your climate science is more
:41:51. > :41:53.accurate than the rolling of the dice you have just had, that is
:41:54. > :41:58.fundamental, isn't it? The point we're saying is we are starting to
:41:58. > :42:02.learn how to do this. It is not that we know exactly how to do it
:42:02. > :42:06.for every weather event in the world. What we can say is for
:42:06. > :42:10.certain weather veepbts, the obvious ones, we can say how the
:42:10. > :42:15.odds on the weather events have changed. That is what the new
:42:15. > :42:23.science of probableistic attribution is all about. That
:42:23. > :42:26.becomes crucial, doesn't it, if you are starting to see the science
:42:26. > :42:29.help to prove that certain extreme weather conditions are as a result
:42:29. > :42:39.of man made climate change, you have to act on that? That is where
:42:39. > :42:42.
:42:42. > :42:47.the problem lies. I'm all for looking at the human system. When
:42:47. > :42:50.Myles and his friend say this could help the adaptation of resources
:42:50. > :42:54.around the world, that is when I get particularly worried. What he's
:42:54. > :42:59.doing is not understanding the nature of the adaptation process,
:42:59. > :43:03.by trying to suggest that we have what we might call tough luck
:43:03. > :43:06.weather, and human weather, and these are separate catagories, we
:43:06. > :43:10.need to adapt the human cause weather, but not the tough luck
:43:10. > :43:14.weather, that is failing to understand adaptation is actually
:43:14. > :43:19.the same whether human caused or not. You are saying the science
:43:19. > :43:24.isn't up to it, bluntly? I'm saying it is far too premature to be
:43:24. > :43:30.trailing this as a way of informing adaptation decisions around the
:43:30. > :43:34.world today. What is needed is investment in daiptation to improve
:43:34. > :43:39.the adaptive xapsity of those communities most at -- capacity of
:43:39. > :43:42.those communities at risk. You are not there yet? We're not there for
:43:42. > :43:47.every weather event. But, if you are living in an African village
:43:47. > :43:53.and being affected by storms, it is obviously making sense to invest in
:43:53. > :44:01.defences against those storms. But, nobody is suggesting that whether
:44:01. > :44:06.or not those storms are caused and the risk of storms is increased by
:44:06. > :44:09.the human causes, and you need to put up defences against them, but
:44:09. > :44:14.it is highly interesting who pays the bill. We have given resources
:44:14. > :44:17.to poor countries, not very many, to help them deal with the
:44:17. > :44:20.unfortunate consequences of bad weather. You are prepared to go to
:44:20. > :44:23.Governments on the strength of what you know at this point, and say
:44:23. > :44:27.they should be giving more money because of X or Y? We are not
:44:27. > :44:31.saying. That we are saying people deserve to know. If certain weather
:44:31. > :44:34.events are being made more likely by human influence on climate, it
:44:34. > :44:39.changes the nature of the question. We used to give money to help
:44:39. > :44:43.people affected by bad weather as a matter of son shepbs, however if it
:44:43. > :44:46.is our actions making the weather worse, it is not a matter of
:44:46. > :44:49.conscience, it is a matter of justice. That has to be right, if
:44:49. > :44:56.we know something, if we are using the science, there is a political
:44:56. > :44:59.responsibility that comes with that? He's promoting this as way of
:44:59. > :45:03.introducing evidence-based policy into adaptation. Actually we have
:45:04. > :45:07.very, very well assessed evidence that we know whether extremes cause
:45:07. > :45:11.the greatest damage, the greatest loss of life, the greatest dangers
:45:11. > :45:15.to those people who have least capacity to adapt to those weather
:45:15. > :45:24.risks. That is very clear and unequivocal evidence. That is what
:45:24. > :45:31.should be driving our adaptation policy, our adaptation funding, not
:45:31. > :45:34.a scientific methodology, that is still emergent, biased towards
:45:34. > :45:37.those weather extremes happening in the high latitudes rather than the
:45:37. > :45:40.Tropics where it is needed. Thank you very much for coming in.
:45:40. > :45:44.Before we go let me take you there the front pages of tomorrow's
:45:44. > :45:54.papers. The Independent has a global look at the economic prots
:45:54. > :46:13.
:46:13. > :46:23.That's all from Newsnight and the team tonight, from all of us here,
:46:23. > :46:48.
:46:48. > :46:52.Reasonable weekend coming up. Wet for some, sunny for others. Quite a
:46:52. > :46:55.lot of variety across the UK. On Friday's chart the best of the
:46:55. > :46:59.sunshine will be across England and Wales. Certainly through mid-
:46:59. > :47:02.afternoon, it should feel very pleasant through the heart of
:47:02. > :47:06.northern England, there will be a breeze, but not too strong.
:47:06. > :47:09.Temperatures up in the mid-teens, yet again, it should not feel like
:47:09. > :47:12.the middle of November. Fine for most of central and southern
:47:12. > :47:17.England, even across the south west. Starting off cloudy, damp, things
:47:17. > :47:21.will perk up through the afternoon. With some sunshine around. It will
:47:21. > :47:27.be blustery towards western coasts and hills. The same can be said for
:47:27. > :47:30.Wales. Dampness to start the day, but brings cheering up by the
:47:30. > :47:34.afternoon. Brightness for Belfast. Most of northern staying cloudy
:47:34. > :47:39.with the threat of rain across more western areas. For Scotland, parts
:47:39. > :47:43.of the southern Highlands, a lot of rain. Inbetween, calt bout and
:47:43. > :47:46.north-east of the Highlands it should be dryer and brighter. To
:47:46. > :47:50.the weekend a lot of dry weather, this is for more northern parts of
:47:50. > :47:55.UK, the threat is from rain in Belfast. Further south, largely dry,
:47:55. > :48:00.the cloud will come and go, in any sunshine it will feel pleasant.
:48:00. > :48:02.Temperatures nudging into the low to mid-teens. This is Saturday's