:00:09. > :00:19.Tonight, record figures out today show the Government is way off
:00:19. > :00:19.
:00:19. > :00:22.target on immigration. Is the Polish master carpenter and others
:00:22. > :00:27.pouring our economy. There are many more in work from Eastern Europe
:00:27. > :00:33.than a year ago. They do more hours than most because they want to.
:00:33. > :00:36.Because they want to earn the money. That's maybe where we fall down as
:00:36. > :00:39.a nation. Is there a connection between them and record figures
:00:39. > :00:43.today showing a million young people in England unemployed and
:00:43. > :00:49.not in any form of education. I will be asking the Government why
:00:49. > :00:52.they are off track. For those in work in the public sector, is next
:00:52. > :00:56.week's strike in defence of pensions a negotiating master
:00:56. > :01:01.stroke or disastrously mistimed. think it is irresponsible, I think
:01:01. > :01:06.it is wrong, and people should know who to blame. A strike leader and a
:01:06. > :01:10.Tory backbencher go head-to-head. It boasts the world's highest-paid
:01:10. > :01:15.footballer, but it is now the most dangerous place in Europe. We go to
:01:15. > :01:25.deepest Dagestan in search of the oligarch, using football as a
:01:25. > :01:27.
:01:27. > :01:30.Good evening. Tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands a
:01:30. > :01:35.year. That was the promise on immigration in the Conservative
:01:35. > :01:38.manifesto last year. But the annual figure for 2010 is higher than ever.
:01:38. > :01:42.Tonight, we will debate whether this is a good thing or a bad thing,
:01:42. > :01:46.and whether it directly effects unemployment. Today we also learn
:01:46. > :01:52.the number of young people not in employment, education or training
:01:52. > :01:58.was at record level. A British manufacturing company
:01:58. > :02:01.bucking the trend. For this steel fabricator in south London,
:02:01. > :02:06.contracts continue to roll in, eventhough competition and profit
:02:06. > :02:09.margins are tight. We spent the afternoon at London Engineering,
:02:09. > :02:13.trying to find out how Government policy on immigration and
:02:13. > :02:17.employment plays out on the ground. Commercial manager, Richard Mulhall,
:02:17. > :02:22.showed us around. In that parbt of the works, the new part, we have
:02:22. > :02:26.the biggest guillotines and press makes in London. We cut sheet and
:02:26. > :02:32.plate and fold it and bend it. sort of jobs have you got on, what
:02:32. > :02:39.sort of clients? We worked for the Olympic stadium, the Emirates
:02:39. > :02:45.stadium, the 02. In this Crucible part of the British economy we
:02:45. > :02:51.found Polish Marcin Pawlowski, learning the petal makers trade.
:02:51. > :02:55.left as an electrician and I had to learn about it. You had to learn
:02:55. > :02:59.about steel fabrication? Everything. I learned how to read the drawings
:02:59. > :03:03.and how to do the drawings back in Poland. But apart from that,
:03:03. > :03:08.everything was brand new for me. While employment rates for UK
:03:08. > :03:11.nationals stands at 71%, the figure for those arriving here from the
:03:11. > :03:21.eight new EU accession group of countries, in Eastern Europe, is
:03:21. > :03:24.82%. So are new immigrants like this
:03:24. > :03:27.more employable, motivated or both. It is hard work, but you have to
:03:27. > :03:31.get up in the morning, go out there and keep searching all the time. I
:03:31. > :03:35.just walked into that company, through the door, and I asked the
:03:35. > :03:38.question, is there any clans I could have a job in this -- chance
:03:38. > :03:43.I could have a job in this place. The boss said we will see what
:03:43. > :03:47.happened, and he just ended up calling me about three weeks later,
:03:47. > :03:50.you know. So that's how it was. Really strange, but that is how it
:03:50. > :03:53.was. It may not be the most glamorous of
:03:53. > :03:57.work, but this south London engineering firm has a real niche
:03:57. > :04:02.in the market, it is a specialist in designing and building bespoke
:04:02. > :04:09.steel projects. It has a full order book. Why don't more British people
:04:09. > :04:18.come here to work? What What is the workshop about? This is where we do
:04:18. > :04:22.the heavy structural work. These are for the twin sails lifting
:04:22. > :04:26.bridge, these are the traffic light standards for the ships and for the
:04:26. > :04:29.cars when the bridge goes up and down.
:04:29. > :04:33.London Engineering says it is very happy with its British workers.
:04:33. > :04:40.Many are older and have been here for years. But there is a dirth of
:04:40. > :04:46.younger British recruits. A little while ago, we had three chaps come
:04:46. > :04:50.in from an agency, one was Norwegian, one was Rumanian and one
:04:50. > :04:55.was a Polish lad. They were only with us for a few weeks, but no
:04:55. > :05:01.English guys. Whether that is to do with not enough apprenticeships,
:05:01. > :05:04.which I think is a lot of the case. In actual fact, we don't do it. I
:05:04. > :05:08.know the Government have been trying to do various bits and
:05:08. > :05:11.pieces on apprenticeships, I don't think anyone does it.
:05:11. > :05:16.It is tempting to assume that choking off immigration would
:05:16. > :05:19.liberate jobs for British workers. But this may not be a simple
:05:19. > :05:25.equation. Motivation, welfare dependency, skills, are all factors
:05:26. > :05:29.which cloud this picture. Even so, the Government's stated aim is to
:05:29. > :05:38.limit net migration by tens of thousands by 2015. We are a long
:05:38. > :05:46.way off that. Last year 59,000 people migrated to Britain. But --
:05:46. > :05:52.591,000 migrated to Britain, but 339,000 left, the lowest since 20
:05:52. > :06:00.01, it was a net high of net migration. The number not in
:06:00. > :06:04.education or training rose to over 1.1 million, a record 19.2% rise.
:06:04. > :06:09.It is a bad time to be young in this country? Shocking, soul
:06:09. > :06:12.destroying, and leading people down the wrong road. You can see, if
:06:12. > :06:17.they haven't got the opportunity to go out to work and not given the
:06:17. > :06:20.start somewhere, I feel really, really sorry.
:06:20. > :06:24.Labour argues the Government shows no sign of getting net migration
:06:24. > :06:28.under control. Eventhough, of course, they had 13 years in power
:06:28. > :06:32.to effect change. We think the Government has the wrong target in
:06:32. > :06:36.the first place, but they are also not fulfiling their promises when
:06:36. > :06:40.they were in opposition. They said that net migration should come down,
:06:40. > :06:46.it has actually gone up by 10% on their watch. They said they would
:06:46. > :06:50.make sure more people were repelled at the borders, in actual fact, the
:06:50. > :06:53.number of people repelled at the borders has gone down instead of up.
:06:53. > :07:00.Getting young people into work will take more than controlling
:07:00. > :07:02.immigration. Those at the sharp end feel there are other factors at
:07:03. > :07:06.play. Are you enough British youngsters coming forward for this
:07:06. > :07:09.type of work? I don't think they are. I don't think it is appealing
:07:09. > :07:15.to the youth of today that they genuinely want to get into what is
:07:15. > :07:20.described as an old industry. It is very much hands on, it is heavy, it
:07:20. > :07:24.is cumbersome, dirty. It is not attractive work. It is not
:07:24. > :07:29.computer-orientated, which a lot of people want to do. This really is a
:07:29. > :07:34.physical, demanding industry. Immigration from EU countries is
:07:34. > :07:37.dwarfed by those arriving from overseas. 218,000 of the 25 2,000
:07:37. > :07:45.net figure last year. This, then, is the bigger challenge for
:07:45. > :07:50.Government, it is hard to see how their target will be reached.
:07:50. > :07:53.I spoke to the Immigration Minister, Damian Green, a little earlier.
:07:53. > :07:57.Damian Green, in the Conservative manifesto, the pledge was to reduce
:07:57. > :08:01.migration to in the tens of thousands. Do you accept that you
:08:01. > :08:04.now won't make that bigger within the term of this parliament? Not at
:08:04. > :08:09.all. We deliberately said we would do it in the term of the parliament,
:08:09. > :08:12.because we knew that immigration was rising uncontrollably fast in
:08:12. > :08:15.the final years of the Labour Government, and we knew, therefore,
:08:15. > :08:19.that we would have to take early action, as we have done on work
:08:19. > :08:23.visas and students and so on, but that it would take a long time to
:08:23. > :08:28.do it. What we have seen with the figures today, shows how tough a
:08:28. > :08:31.challenge it is, how bad the situation was we inherited in 2010,
:08:31. > :08:35.and how right we were to start straight away doing this, it will
:08:35. > :08:43.take the whole parliament. actual figures show, net migration,
:08:43. > :08:48.to March 2011, 245,000, to March 2010, 22 2,000, so actually, net
:08:48. > :08:52.migration is rising since you have been in power? According to the ONS
:08:52. > :08:57.statistics we saw today, it seems to have peaked last September.
:08:57. > :09:01.September a year ago. At 255,000, and has drifted down a very small
:09:01. > :09:05.amount, I agree, through December and now to March of this year.
:09:05. > :09:09.Nothing like enough, I agree, but that all happened before our
:09:10. > :09:16.measures really started to take effect. As I say, that's why we had
:09:16. > :09:20.to start straight away, so we will see the benefits in the years to
:09:20. > :09:25.come. So not a guarantee you will get the migration into tens of
:09:25. > :09:28.thousands within the time scale? That is what we set in the
:09:28. > :09:32.manifesto and in the coalition agreement, that is what we are
:09:32. > :09:38.aiming at. How much do you think the possibility of getting a job in
:09:38. > :09:41.the UK is what attracts migrants? For some people that is obviously
:09:41. > :09:45.the attraction. But the biggest source of immigration into Britain
:09:45. > :09:48.is the student route. That accounts at its peak for about two-thirds of
:09:48. > :09:52.the number of migrants that come here. That is why one of the big
:09:52. > :10:01.actions we have taken has been to close down hundreds of bogus
:10:01. > :10:07.colleges that were bringing in tens of thousands of students every year,
:10:07. > :10:11."students. Almost 100,000 from the European
:10:11. > :10:14.Union more this year than last came in from the European Union on the
:10:14. > :10:17.Labour Force Survey, good thing or bad thing they have jobs?
:10:17. > :10:21.depends the kind of jobs they are doing. One of the other things we
:10:22. > :10:25.are trying to do, apart from reduce the numbers, is be much more
:10:25. > :10:28.targeted on the people who come here. Where we can control it, from
:10:28. > :10:32.outside the European Union, we have set the bar at zero, we don't bring
:10:32. > :10:36.in any unskilled workers. For skilled workers we are insisting
:10:36. > :10:39.they have a graduate-level job, a decent salary. How is it, people
:10:39. > :10:43.can't understand why unemployment is rising, and yet those migrants
:10:43. > :10:47.in the jobs, the number of those is rising as well? One of the things
:10:47. > :10:52.we clearly need to do is clear up the mess of the skills system in
:10:52. > :10:57.this country. It is certainly true that many employers say they will
:10:57. > :11:00.employ a foreign-born, often a European worker, rather than a
:11:00. > :11:03.British worker, because they think British workers haven't the skills
:11:03. > :11:08.or attitude. That is another problem we are trying to solve.
:11:08. > :11:12.What do you say to an employer that is faced with a Polish worker and a
:11:12. > :11:15.British-born worker, the Polish worker, on the face of it, has more
:11:15. > :11:18.qualifications, are you really saying to the employer, take the
:11:18. > :11:21.British-born worker over the Polish worker? We are saying that
:11:21. > :11:26.employers have a wider sense of responsibility, so they should look
:11:26. > :11:29.to their own community, they should participate. Can you enforce that?
:11:29. > :11:33.They should participate in the training schemes, we are funding
:11:33. > :11:35.tens of thousands more apprenticeships than we have had
:11:35. > :11:41.before. Can we force someone to take a British worker, no. When
:11:41. > :11:45.Gordon Brown talked about British jobs for British workers, that was
:11:46. > :11:50.a meaningless soundbite. Should the employer take the skilled Polish
:11:50. > :11:54.worker over the unskilled British worker should he not? We should
:11:54. > :11:57.create more skilled British workers to compete with the skilled Polish
:11:57. > :12:04.workers or from elsewhere in Europe. That is the long-term way to do it
:12:04. > :12:09.to make sure we are more competitive. You have used the word
:12:09. > :12:12.long-term" can I quote Iain Duncan Smith from July, he said short-term
:12:12. > :12:15.immigration control is critical, otherwise we will lose another
:12:15. > :12:18.generation to dependency and homelessness. But the short-term is
:12:18. > :12:22.what you are fail anything? That is precisely what we are not fail
:12:22. > :12:26.anything. That is why he the first thing we did was introduce a limit
:12:26. > :12:31.even on skilled workers. The limit of unskilled workers from outside
:12:31. > :12:37.the EU is zero. Is the inside the EU, they are taking some of the
:12:37. > :12:44.skilled jobs? Actually, if you look at that net figure, far too high of
:12:44. > :12:48.250,000. More than 200,000 of that net figure comes from people who
:12:48. > :12:54.have come here from outside the European Union. Looking at the
:12:54. > :12:58.figures for NEETs, and the figure of over a million, and do you sense
:12:59. > :13:04.a panic in Government ranks, do you sense a panic that is what has
:13:04. > :13:07.brought on this sudden billion pounds tomorrow to try to tackle
:13:07. > :13:10.16-24s? No, it is not panic at all. We were saying for years in
:13:10. > :13:13.opposition, first of all, that immigration was too high. And
:13:14. > :13:16.second, that the problem of the NEETs, the young people not in
:13:17. > :13:20.education or training, was one of the most serious problems facing
:13:20. > :13:23.this country. That is why a lot of the early radical action we have
:13:23. > :13:27.taken in Government has been on welfare reform, and has been on
:13:27. > :13:34.immigration. They are, as you say, they are two sides of the same coin,
:13:34. > :13:38.you have to get both of them right to have a stable labour market, and
:13:38. > :13:39.a stable society. That is why it is so urgent we have worked on both of
:13:39. > :13:43.them from day one of being in office.
:13:43. > :13:46.Thank you very much. Here to discuss the impact
:13:47. > :13:54.immigration might have is David Goodhart of the think-tank, Demos,
:13:54. > :13:58.and the magazine Prospect, and our guest from the Royal Commonwealth
:13:58. > :14:02.Society, and Kate Robertson, an advertising executive. First of all,
:14:02. > :14:05.to you all, employers have a responsibility to look to their own
:14:05. > :14:11.communities, that is what Damian Green has said what does that
:14:11. > :14:14.actually mean? Well, I think there is a danger that we could have a
:14:14. > :14:17.Saudi Arabianisation of our labour market, we have a lot of local
:14:17. > :14:21.people, British nationals, sitting at home on benefit, and hundreds of
:14:21. > :14:24.thousands of people coming in from the rest of Europe, or outside
:14:24. > :14:27.Europe, and taking jobs, that is not a healthy thing for society. I
:14:28. > :14:31.think there are things you should be able to do. Even within the
:14:31. > :14:35.European Union, even given free movement, which is part of the
:14:35. > :14:39.religion of the EU, obviously, you ought to be able to have
:14:39. > :14:43.qualifications and caveats to that in areas of high youth unemployment.
:14:43. > :14:46.Why not give special incentives to British employers, or local
:14:47. > :14:50.employers to employ local people. That would be a restrictive
:14:50. > :14:54.practice, eventhough they are EU nationals? It wouldn't be a
:14:54. > :14:57.restricted practice. Lots of EU countries have these caveats.
:14:57. > :15:05.Germany, for example, the public officials in Germany are not
:15:05. > :15:08.allowed to be non-nationals. Would that be an argument to restrict
:15:08. > :15:12.immigration? The first thing that strikes but this discussion is the
:15:12. > :15:17.word "local" in the context of the UK, since joining the European
:15:17. > :15:21.Union and the single labour market, is an employer in this country has
:15:21. > :15:24.a choice of something like 450 million potential workers resident
:15:24. > :15:31.in 27 European Union member states. That is great advantage to the
:15:31. > :15:34.British economy, and that is something that employers have had
:15:34. > :15:38.taken advantage of. That doesn't de diminish the responsibility of
:15:38. > :15:42.employers to invest in local communities and invest in the
:15:42. > :15:46.skills of young people, it is getting the balance right that is
:15:47. > :15:50.the trick. From your point of view as an employer and somebody who
:15:50. > :15:56.came from to this country from South Africa, how do you temper the
:15:56. > :15:59.argument about sourcing local, as it were? I think I'm where Danny is
:16:00. > :16:03.on this, I don't think it is as simple as conflating these two
:16:03. > :16:09.issues, the rising immigration and rising unemployment among our young
:16:09. > :16:12.people. I say "our", obviously I'm an immigrant. What I do feel
:16:12. > :16:15.strongly about is we in business absolutely have a responsibility to
:16:15. > :16:19.young people in this country. And I realise there is a potential there,
:16:20. > :16:23.I think you are right when you picked Dave up about restrictive
:16:23. > :16:27.practice. But I feel very strongly about the guy I work for, he
:16:27. > :16:34.believes who cares wins, and he's absolutely determined in our
:16:34. > :16:39.company that he care to win. I care about unemployed British youngsters.
:16:39. > :16:43.But do you think immigration policy hits young working-class kids,
:16:43. > :16:46.disproportionately? Of course it does, that is partly to do with the
:16:46. > :16:54.membership of the European Union. It is true that we can't do
:16:54. > :16:58.anything about it if we want to. Danny says it is a great benefit to
:16:58. > :17:03.the British economy. Actually the economic consensus is that mass
:17:03. > :17:06.immigration in the last 15 years has not made a huge difference to
:17:06. > :17:11.British citizens, it has been beneficial to immigrants and
:17:11. > :17:15.employers and better off people, not particularly good for the
:17:15. > :17:21.economy as a whole. Do you agree with that? Absolutely not. The
:17:21. > :17:25.thing we miss here is the counter effect. What would have happened in
:17:25. > :17:28.Britain had the yue eastern Europeans not come, we would still
:17:28. > :17:32.face an employment challenge and a problem with young people. You
:17:32. > :17:36.might well argue, if you can't import the workers what may well
:17:36. > :17:40.have happened is the jobs would have been exported. If you couldn't
:17:40. > :17:43.get someone to pick the strawberries in farms in the UK,
:17:43. > :17:47.Sainsbury's would have bought them from elsewhere. What do you think
:17:47. > :17:52.about that? There is absolutely an issue here about the kind of job,
:17:52. > :17:57.and the other thing that is serious is attitude to work, and there is
:17:57. > :18:07.absolutely an issue there. It is known immigrants work...Do You see,
:18:07. > :18:11.counter to that, do you see an attitude to work which is Less
:18:11. > :18:15.enthusiastic, and the willingness to go the extra mile among British-
:18:15. > :18:19.born, local people? I think that is an empirical assumption and it is
:18:19. > :18:25.not the truth. It is not what I see in the work place, it is not what I
:18:25. > :18:31.see in British youngsters. There is a limit, as you said, to what can
:18:31. > :18:34.be done about the EU, the vast amounts of immigrants from the sub-
:18:34. > :18:38.continent, that group of people will be restricted? I think that is
:18:38. > :18:43.where the cuts will fall, and one of the challenges is, as the
:18:43. > :18:46.minister has just said, half of the people who came last year are
:18:46. > :18:50.international students, paying billions into the economy, cross
:18:50. > :18:53.subsidising UK students in educational institutions. We are
:18:53. > :18:58.talking about hundreds of bogus colleges, but actually a lot of
:18:58. > :19:02.further education colleges a lot of higher education institutions will
:19:02. > :19:06.absolutely need and thrive on international students? 300,000 a
:19:06. > :19:10.year, 300,000 plus. There are a lot of students, in the sub-university
:19:10. > :19:16.level, who are coming here, because they want to get permanent
:19:16. > :19:21.residence. You are taking further education colleges into that as
:19:21. > :19:26.well, really? Absolutely. You press down on one area of immigration,
:19:26. > :19:29.the work permits have been pushed right down from outside the EU.
:19:29. > :19:34.Labour started doing this before the Tories came into power, and
:19:34. > :19:37.other things spring up if you allow them to. Students is where it is
:19:37. > :19:42.springing up at the moment. Quite right to push it down. This
:19:42. > :19:46.wouldn't damage higher education. Really? This cannot only be solved
:19:46. > :19:49.by Government, whether it is caps or Government policy, or even I
:19:49. > :19:53.think education policy there is an issue here. I think business
:19:53. > :19:58.absolutely has a role to play here. If you look at the number of
:19:58. > :20:03.businesses in the UK, who make profits in excess of �10 million a
:20:03. > :20:06.year, there are lots, thousands. Where is the problem with looking
:20:06. > :20:10.at that, making slightly less profit, and getting young people
:20:10. > :20:14.into training and into work. And I believe business has got to
:20:14. > :20:19.absolutely step up to the plate on this one. It is interesting, where
:20:19. > :20:23.Richard Watson was filming, he said openly, we don't have apprentices.
:20:23. > :20:27.Do you think it is acceptable for firms, for example, engineering
:20:27. > :20:32.firms, not to have apprentices at the moment? No I don't. He said so
:20:32. > :20:37.there. He said he himself felt he wasn't doing UN I'm very concerned
:20:37. > :20:43.in my industry, I'm hyperaware, as a big employer, that we haven't
:20:43. > :20:47.done enough. I completely accept, that we need to do much more, and
:20:47. > :20:51.I'm determined to do it. Will the Government make the targets of tens
:20:51. > :20:56.of thousands in five years. We are talking ten of thousand, we are
:20:56. > :21:01.talking less than 99,000? They could easily do T we are in a
:21:01. > :21:04.ludicrous panic about t they have been in power when the numbers were
:21:04. > :21:10.done of six months. They are bearing down radically on all the
:21:10. > :21:14.three big, student, work, family union routes, they are clamping
:21:14. > :21:18.down radically on that, they have another three years to go. Does
:21:18. > :21:22.immigration, per se, undermine the bonds of community. Is there a
:21:22. > :21:26.bigger conversation there then? have indeed had a huge amount of
:21:26. > :21:32.immigration in recent times. I think the chances are immigration
:21:32. > :21:36.will start to fall. As the economy and the economic effects take place.
:21:36. > :21:43.The Government is damed if it does, dammed if it doesn't. If it doesn't
:21:43. > :21:47.make the target, people will feel they have been sold a false promise.
:21:47. > :21:53.If it does meet the target we might not get the right workers for the
:21:53. > :21:57.right jobs to meet economic recovery.
:21:57. > :22:02.In these precarious times do people in work have to accept the deal in
:22:02. > :22:05.life they thought they had has changed. Or the right that they
:22:05. > :22:09.have earned that deal and they have to fight for it. That is the
:22:09. > :22:14.fundamental issue at the heart of the public sector strike next week,
:22:14. > :22:19.which the Chancellor described as a self-inflicted wound to the British
:22:19. > :22:23.economy. Is the protection of pension at the moment a more
:22:23. > :22:27.visceral issue than pay that mill yopbts are prepared to strike over
:22:27. > :22:31.it.Le -- millions are prepared to strike over it.
:22:31. > :22:37.The lessons of the 126 general strike loom large in British
:22:37. > :22:42.industrial relations. The unions, an example of how
:22:42. > :22:47.concerted action can have exponential impact.
:22:47. > :22:52.For the Government, it showed that strikes can be defeated if the non-
:22:52. > :22:57.unionised middle-class turns against them. In 1926, office
:22:57. > :22:59.workers replaced the strikers, shovelling coal to keep the power
:22:59. > :23:04.stations running. No question of that next Wednesday, but the
:23:04. > :23:10.Government is trying to get other civil servants to staff passport
:23:10. > :23:14.control. Well I think it is an act of desperation. The day before they
:23:14. > :23:17.were offering to fly staff back from embassies around the world.
:23:17. > :23:21.Now they want people without any training to do a very important job
:23:21. > :23:24.at the borders. What they really should be doing is try to settle
:23:24. > :23:29.the pensions dispute. For the Prime Minister, there were two good
:23:29. > :23:35.reasons for being at the Toyota plant in Derbyshire today. Firstly,
:23:35. > :23:39.the company has announced �100 million of new investment,
:23:39. > :23:42.guarnteeing and creating new jobs. Secondly and a big factor in the
:23:42. > :23:45.company's decision, Toyota in the UK has never lost an hour's
:23:45. > :23:51.production to strikes. We will do what we can, for instance, to make
:23:51. > :23:54.sure that our airports remain open, and that our border queues are not
:23:54. > :23:58.intolerable. Everyone should be clear that there is going to be
:23:58. > :24:02.disruption, and the reason for that disruption, the responsibility for
:24:03. > :24:06.that disruption, lies squarely with the trade union leaders, who have
:24:06. > :24:09.decided on a strike, even while negotiations are on going. I think
:24:09. > :24:13.that is irresponsible. I think it is wrong, and people should know
:24:13. > :24:18.who to blame. When Toyota was going through a
:24:18. > :24:23.downturn, the workers agreed a 10% drop in Sally, rather than face job
:24:23. > :24:28.cuts. The -- in salary, rather than face job cuts. The Government is
:24:28. > :24:32.trying to get public sector workers to do the same thing, and agree to
:24:32. > :24:36.a reduction in their pension entitlement, but they haven't got
:24:36. > :24:41.close to agreement, eventhough there was an improved offer. This
:24:41. > :24:44.man used to work for the GMB unions and said the unions are doing what
:24:44. > :24:48.they are supposed to be doing? David Cameron can't have it both
:24:48. > :24:51.ways, either the Government aren't granting concessions to the trade
:24:51. > :24:54.unions, in which case it is perfectly reasonable for them to
:24:54. > :24:57.say they are going on strike, or the Government is granting
:24:57. > :25:01.concessions to the trade unions and their action is working and the
:25:01. > :25:05.strike action seems perfectly sensible. As the unions leaflet
:25:05. > :25:09.workers outside the Treasury, many Conservative backbenchers want the
:25:09. > :25:13.Government to legislate to ban strikes, unless a majority of
:25:13. > :25:16.members are balloted. Ministers fear such action could seem
:25:16. > :25:22.inflammatory, instead they are talking about the cost of the
:25:22. > :25:27.strikes. Half a billion pounds, they say, in lost output. We hope
:25:27. > :25:30.that they won't be too paj damaging at all, it very much de-- damaging
:25:30. > :25:34.at all, it all depends whether public sector workers use the time
:25:34. > :25:38.between now and Wednesday, to look at the website, and check what
:25:38. > :25:40.their pension will actually be. At the end of this, public sector
:25:40. > :25:47.workers will still have pensions which will be the envy of most
:25:47. > :25:51.people in the work force. Just like 1926, the Government
:25:51. > :25:55.strategy is to get non-unionised opinion against the strikes. They
:25:55. > :26:00.are, ministers insist, striking to keep the benefit that is you pay
:26:00. > :26:04.for, and can't afford for yourself. The strikes have, of course,
:26:04. > :26:08.created a big problem for the leader of the opposition, Labour
:26:08. > :26:14.was founded and is funded by the unionists. But Mr Miliband can't
:26:14. > :26:17.risk coming down on their side. Strikes are always a sign of
:26:17. > :26:21.failure. That is absolutely clear. That is why I say no stone should
:26:22. > :26:26.be left unturned to prevent these strikes happening. That is why it
:26:26. > :26:30.is the responsibility of both sides. Of course it is the case that I
:26:30. > :26:34.think throughout all of the services, basic services should be
:26:34. > :26:39.maintained. Because everything should be done to make sure that
:26:39. > :26:43.the safety of the public is not put at risk by this. There is, though,
:26:43. > :26:48.annoyance among some trade unionists that Mr Miliband can,
:26:48. > :26:52.apparently, be more supportive of the tents outside St Paul's, than
:26:52. > :26:58.public sector workers. I thought he got it right in June when he took
:26:58. > :27:03.the stance of urging caution, and distancing himself from the strikes.
:27:03. > :27:06.I also think it is legitimate for unions to go on strike, but Ed has
:27:06. > :27:11.complicated matters for his support of the Occupy movement. And a lot
:27:11. > :27:16.of trade union members are saying if you he back the students and
:27:16. > :27:20.others camped on St Paul's, why not us. In 126 some of the big winners
:27:20. > :27:24.of the general strike were the pit ponies, who had a holiday in the
:27:24. > :27:29.sunshine. The biggest problem for today's politicians is no-one can
:27:29. > :27:37.predict how these strikes can go on, unless you know that, you can't
:27:37. > :27:41.know public opinion will end up? The Conservative MP, Dominic Raab
:27:41. > :27:44.and the Assistant-General secretary of Unison, Karen Jennings are both
:27:44. > :27:48.here. Ed Milliband said strikes are always a sign of failure on both
:27:48. > :27:52.sides, do you accept your role in that failure? What I would say to
:27:52. > :27:56.Ed Milliband is that he needs to know the detail of what's happening
:27:56. > :28:00.in those discussions. Don't you think he does? No, I don't think he
:28:00. > :28:04.does know the detail. I don't think very many people do know what is
:28:04. > :28:08.going on in relation to the negotiations. The opposition leader,
:28:08. > :28:11.doesn't know the detail of what is going on in the negotiations?
:28:11. > :28:14.may give you an example of what is happening. In local Government, the
:28:14. > :28:19.employers have said that they don't have the information from the
:28:19. > :28:24.Treasury to be able to negotiate. So they have gone away to try to
:28:24. > :28:27.get the information, there are no talks now until after the
:28:27. > :28:30.industrial action has taken place. Do you think Ed Milliband would be
:28:30. > :28:34.more supportive, that is what you are saying, he would be more
:28:34. > :28:38.supportive if he knew the detail? think Ed Milliband was quite
:28:38. > :28:43.supportive today when he said today, for example, that the tax that is
:28:43. > :28:47.going to be on public sector workers, 3.5%, 50% contribution
:28:47. > :28:54.rate, on public sector workers only, and not a penny of that will go
:28:54. > :28:58.towards their pensions. Dominic Raab, is it reasonable to put
:28:58. > :29:03.public sector workers in this position at the moment? Of feeling
:29:03. > :29:07.that they are so uncared for and undermined that they have to go on
:29:07. > :29:11.strike. People that have never considered going on strike in their
:29:11. > :29:15.lives? You take moral acrobatics to come to that conclusion. These
:29:15. > :29:19.strikes will be very damaging for your economy, whatever the estimate.
:29:19. > :29:25.At a time when we are vulnerable economic clee. The reality for
:29:25. > :29:30.public sector workers, in the end they will have better pensions than
:29:30. > :29:34.the private sector workers, subsidising them to an enormous
:29:34. > :29:38.deagreement your average carpenter and hairdresser, will not be able
:29:38. > :29:41.to access them, they will be suss dicing them. They will face mass --
:29:41. > :29:46.subsidising them, and they will face massive disruption because of
:29:46. > :29:49.the strikes. It is unfair and irresponsible? It is not
:29:49. > :29:53.irresponsible, we have had a ballot of the members, the vast majority
:29:53. > :29:58.of those that have responded are women. Who are deeply concerned,
:29:58. > :30:03.one about public services, two about what's happening to jobs, and
:30:03. > :30:07.three, that the pension that they have contributed to, is being cut,
:30:07. > :30:12.and also that they are going to have to work much longer. This is
:30:12. > :30:19.deeply, deeply unfair. There are trade unions that historically, for
:30:19. > :30:25.the first time, are going to take industrial action. Health service
:30:25. > :30:28.trade unions alongside Unison, this is democracy in action. And you
:30:28. > :30:31.would suggest that democracy in action is a very good thing, in
:30:31. > :30:35.defence of liberty, you talked about that. You would presumably
:30:35. > :30:37.endorse the right to strike and the right to make that decision?
:30:37. > :30:42.example the European convention talk about the right to strike t
:30:42. > :30:46.needs to be balanced with other freedoms and other people's
:30:46. > :30:53.freedoms to go about their daily business and work. If you take the
:30:53. > :30:56.ballot for Unison, Karen's union, just one in five union members
:30:56. > :31:02.positively back the strike. If they can't convince their own membership
:31:02. > :31:05.to support the strikes t tells you volumes about the case. That is why
:31:05. > :31:10.the public, overwhelmingly oppose the strikes. I would urge Karen and
:31:10. > :31:16.leaders to think again. You say the public overwhelmingly opposes the
:31:16. > :31:19.strikes. Have you taken a ballot? All the polling from June to this
:31:19. > :31:23.weekend show overwhelming opposition to the strikes. It is
:31:23. > :31:26.obvious why, the vast majority of private sector tax-payers can't
:31:26. > :31:32.afford this. Don't you think it is disgusting that this Government has
:31:32. > :31:36.shown no leadership over private sector people. Who very often do
:31:36. > :31:41.have poor pensions, but don't forget the public sector pensions,
:31:41. > :31:46.if you look at a local Government worker, the average pension it �pun
:31:46. > :31:55.3,000. If you look at a health service worker. They have been
:31:55. > :32:00.protected. It is �6,000. They are protected. They will have to pay
:32:00. > :32:07.for more the pension. It is a career-average, but you accept they
:32:07. > :32:11.make a bigger contribution? There is protection in place for those up
:32:11. > :32:14.to �18,000. Look at Europe and the US, we have a massive debt crisis,
:32:14. > :32:19.sure, we are making tough decisions, of course, that comes with the
:32:19. > :32:25.territory. It is incredibly self- indulge gent to believe the public
:32:25. > :32:29.sector can be immune from change in this way. Do you accept public
:32:29. > :32:33.sector workers should pay something for more their pension? No, I don't
:32:33. > :32:39.accept that public sector workers should pay something for more their
:32:39. > :32:42.pension. Your negotiating position is, not a penny more? What we are
:32:42. > :32:46.negotiating at the moment, is looking at a new scheme, which
:32:46. > :32:50.might be different from a final salary scheme, and we are up for
:32:51. > :32:54.talking about that. I don't see why we should increase the amount
:32:54. > :32:57.people are paying towards their pension, when the money that is
:32:57. > :33:04.being increased is going towards paying back the deficit. It has
:33:04. > :33:09.nothing to do with their pensions. Surely, if you want as you do,
:33:09. > :33:13.health service and education reform, you should be undermining the
:33:13. > :33:16.people that day in day out deliver vital services for you, you
:33:16. > :33:20.shouldn't joined mine them? I don't think we are, that is why the
:33:20. > :33:24.Treasury and cabinet office made a very generous offer to try to bring
:33:24. > :33:27.it to a conclusion. Those approaching ten years of retirement
:33:27. > :33:36.will not be affected by the changes. The Government has gone probably
:33:36. > :33:39.too far. Very briefly, can I just confirm, too far, too far? In what
:33:39. > :33:47.respect. Do you think that critical operations on Wednesday will go
:33:47. > :33:51.ahead in hospitals? Critical operations, of course they will.
:33:51. > :33:59.Guess where you will find the world's most highly paid football
:33:59. > :34:02.player, not at Manchester City or elsewhere, but dags stran. A
:34:02. > :34:08.Muslim-dominated Republic, next door to Chechnya. Now a billionare
:34:09. > :34:13.is hope to go change things, by pouring vast sums of money into the
:34:13. > :34:17.football team and projects. Can changing things on the pitch change
:34:17. > :34:25.politics. People say it is bread and circuses, without clean rule of
:34:25. > :34:29.law the insurgency will continue. Young people from Dagestan have a
:34:29. > :34:37.new swagger in their step. Something is restoring pride and
:34:37. > :34:47.hope to people in this downtrodden part of Russia. It's football.
:34:47. > :34:48.
:34:48. > :34:54.The local team, Makhachkala is being thrust into the spotlight.
:34:54. > :35:00.Global stars line the city streets, inspiring people to dream. But,
:35:00. > :35:05.Dagestan is now the epicentre of an Islamist insurgency. Militants
:35:05. > :35:10.fight for an Islamic state across the north caucuses, Russian
:35:10. > :35:13.soldiers have spent two decades battling this rebellion, in the
:35:13. > :35:18.Muslim south. Bombings and assassinations happen virtually
:35:18. > :35:25.every day. Terror attacks eminating from here, have reached the heart
:35:25. > :35:31.of Moscow. Most Russians are too terrified to come to Dagestan. But
:35:31. > :35:35.tonight, the premier Moscow club, CSKA, is in town, to play the
:35:35. > :35:43.resurgent, star-studded home side. Cameroon striker, Samuel Eto'o, has
:35:43. > :35:49.just signed for a reported cool $30 million a year. Making him the
:35:49. > :35:54.world's best paid player. Brazilian legend, Roberto Carlos, is player-
:35:54. > :36:04.manager. The fans cheer on the team and four minutes in Eto'o scores,
:36:04. > :36:04.
:36:04. > :36:08.the crowd goes wild. It just the kind of morale booster they needed
:36:08. > :36:10.in this violent and tired Republic. Those who have poured millions into
:36:10. > :36:15.the team hope it is money well spent.
:36:15. > :36:21.But who is paying for this? It is a local boy turned billionare, called
:36:21. > :36:26.Suleiman Kerimov, he's the one bank rolling this football fantasy. The
:36:26. > :36:33.reclusive yacht-owning oligarch, is rumoured to have had his epiphany,
:36:33. > :36:38.when his Ferrari crashed in 2006. After cheating death, he decided to
:36:38. > :36:43.invest in his embattled homeland. What do people think of Kerimov's
:36:43. > :36:49.global shopping spree, in a place where most people are lucky to earn
:36:49. > :36:56.�250 a month. TRANSLATION: It is his money, he can do he likes with
:36:56. > :36:59.it. Everything he -- He can do what he likes with it. Everything he
:37:00. > :37:07.does is to support our Dagestan. is not just about football,
:37:07. > :37:11.everything is connected. The ecstacy wears off, the Moscow
:37:11. > :37:17.side equalise, and then score another four goals. As the mood
:37:17. > :37:25.sours, I discover that Kerimov's project is not without its critics.
:37:25. > :37:32.I spot a banner, better rating fans for ignoring -- berating fans for
:37:32. > :37:40.ignoring Islamic principles. The men next to it subscribe to a
:37:40. > :37:46.growing militant Islam here, called ZAF feeism. TRANSLATION: We don't
:37:46. > :37:50.want football to be a new religion, we, the Islamic youth, don't like
:37:50. > :37:55.it. TRANSLATION: Our Republic is the poorest part of the Russian
:37:55. > :37:59.federation, but �20 million is spent on one player, it is like
:37:59. > :38:03.gladiators in ancient Rome, and the people are starving. Our people are
:38:03. > :38:08.hungry, they are being killed, and we are in the middle of a civil war,
:38:08. > :38:12.and yet they sit and watch this spectacle. You don't have to stray
:38:12. > :38:18.far from the football to see what this man means. Just around the
:38:18. > :38:22.corner of the stadium, I'm shown the site of the latest bomb blast.
:38:22. > :38:27.First a device exploded outside a shop selling alcohol. Then there
:38:27. > :38:32.was a second, more powerful blast, timed to coincide with the arrival
:38:32. > :38:40.of the emergency services. One policeman and a child were killed,
:38:40. > :38:44.60 were wounded. My guide is a counter terrorist officer I met at
:38:44. > :38:50.the football match. Doesn't want to show his face. Government officials
:38:50. > :38:55.and police are the main targets of the militants. TRANSLATION: Many of
:38:55. > :39:00.our colleagues die on duty. Many mothers have lost sons and wives
:39:00. > :39:03.have lost husbands, children their fathers. There are loss, but what
:39:03. > :39:08.can we do we have to fight this battle to the end.
:39:08. > :39:10.This building is the centre of the fight against extremism, and it is
:39:10. > :39:15.extraordinary that we are being given a chance to go inside and
:39:15. > :39:25.talk to the people who work here about their jobs.
:39:25. > :39:29.I ask my guide whether things are improving? TRANSLATION:
:39:29. > :39:32.Unfortunately, it is not getting any better. They have become more
:39:32. > :39:37.brutal, and more cynical, they are just people who will do anything.
:39:37. > :39:42.They have been sucked into the swamp, and they can't get out.
:39:42. > :39:45.Another officer shows me a recent example of this brutality.
:39:45. > :39:50.The story of this man is particularly shocking, his father
:39:50. > :39:53.was a local police chief, who was shot dead. Then, when his wife, his
:39:53. > :39:59.sister, and his daughter went to put flowers on the freshly-dug
:39:59. > :40:09.grave, they were blown up. The last remaining member of the family was
:40:09. > :40:09.
:40:09. > :40:11.this man, he was killed too, not long afterwards.
:40:12. > :40:15.Billionare owner Suleiman Kerimov believes creating jobs and
:40:15. > :40:24.improving lives are the best ways to fight the insurgency. This is
:40:24. > :40:28.the promo for one of his projects. A brand new city.
:40:28. > :40:32.His righthandman, is showing me this stadium, part of his
:40:32. > :40:37.employment strategy. Kerimov is also finalising plans for yet
:40:37. > :40:41.another even bigger stadium, for potential use in Russia's 2018
:40:41. > :40:45.World Cup. TRANSLATION: Football was just a
:40:45. > :40:49.starting point. What is going on here is very bad. If there were
:40:49. > :40:54.jobs, that would already be something. If I had no way out, no
:40:54. > :40:58.job, no food and a family to feed, I might take up arms too.
:40:58. > :41:04.I tell him it seems to me Kerimov is doing more than the Government
:41:04. > :41:07.here? TRANSLATION: Indeed he is, everybody knows he's doing more
:41:07. > :41:12.than the Government. Take this stadium, originally a Government
:41:12. > :41:17.project, and a huge amount of money was provided, nothing was done.
:41:17. > :41:23.Now he has bought it and it has been built properly, but the public
:41:23. > :41:27.funds were just stolen, that is what happens here.
:41:27. > :41:33.Sickened by entrenched corruption, more and more people are drawn to
:41:33. > :41:38.new ideas, and rejecting the mainstream, football is no option.
:41:38. > :41:43.The Salafi league has 32 seems playing every Sunday morning, the
:41:43. > :41:47.co-ordinator, is dismissive of Kerimov's money-driven model.
:41:47. > :41:51.TRANSLATION: I don't like their slogan that we are the territory of
:41:51. > :42:01.Ang e, we live in the territory of Dagestan, which I would like to be
:42:01. > :42:06.the territory of Islam. Salafi's poll a strict -- Salafis
:42:06. > :42:10.follow a strict brand of Islam, they believe Sufi Muslims are
:42:10. > :42:15.tainted because of their support for the authorities and support for
:42:15. > :42:21.a secular state. A Salafi dream is a new social order in Dagestan, one
:42:21. > :42:26.built on Sharia Law, they tell me. TRANSLATION: If we see a kissing a
:42:26. > :42:31.woman or drinking, we discreetly remind him of where he lives.
:42:31. > :42:37.him how people react? Generally people react well. Believe me, if
:42:37. > :42:42.we had our way, you wouldn't be able to buy alcohol or tobacco here.
:42:42. > :42:49.You would never find women who walk around uncovered like you.
:42:49. > :42:52.What does he think about the people who take up arms for the cause?
:42:52. > :42:58.TRANSLATION: These people have chosen a certain path, and will
:42:58. > :43:01.answer for what they do. If they are right, then there awaits them
:43:01. > :43:07.enormous prizes, hundreds of times greater than mine. But I swear to
:43:07. > :43:12.Allah I do not condemn them. This kind of talk alarms the
:43:12. > :43:15.authorities, and sometimes leads to heavyhanded responses from the
:43:15. > :43:23.Security Services. The consequences can be deadly.
:43:23. > :43:29.I have come to investigate an incident in theville age, three
:43:29. > :43:36.hours from Makhachkala. -- the village, three years miles from
:43:36. > :43:42.Makhachkala. There is not much here and the outlook is believe belief.
:43:42. > :43:47.This mosque has attracted new believers, Salafis, in May, during
:43:47. > :43:51.Friday prayers, the building was surrounded by armed security forces.
:43:52. > :43:56.Plain clothed officers in muddy boots burst in and arrested 150
:43:56. > :44:00.worshipers, including 15 school boys.
:44:00. > :44:06.Said Gereikhanov, the young Salafi Imam, shows me evidence of abuse,
:44:06. > :44:12.the men and boys were all taken to a police station where they were
:44:12. > :44:18.beaten, some had their hair torn out and beards shaved off. He says
:44:18. > :44:22.the village teachers appeared to be permissive. TRANSLATION: The police
:44:22. > :44:25.summoned the headmaster and the deputy to the station, they saw the
:44:25. > :44:30.badly-bruised young men and heard shouts and schemes, they knew what
:44:30. > :44:37.was going on. The teachers called them dogs for going to the mosques.
:44:37. > :44:40.The headmaster, Sadikullah Akhmedov, was a sworn enemy of the Salafis,
:44:41. > :44:44.at this heated public meeting immediately after the mosque
:44:44. > :44:49.invasion. He claimed the young radicals would soon impose Sharia
:44:49. > :44:56.Law on the village and force all the women to wear vails. He
:44:56. > :44:59.denounced a rein of ter -- regin of terror where pro-secular teachers
:44:59. > :45:03.like him would be murdered. Little did he expect he would become the
:45:03. > :45:07.next target. I head for the school and find a
:45:07. > :45:17.biology teacher who agrees to tell me what happened to his boss on the
:45:17. > :45:17.
:45:17. > :45:25.night of Julyth. -- July 9th.
:45:25. > :45:31.They shot him in his home at point blank rairpbg in the face. -- range
:45:31. > :45:36.in the face. His wife and son were watching TV, nobody knows what they
:45:36. > :45:40.did it. The situation here is still very tense, back at the mosque,
:45:40. > :45:44.they tell me they are sure the radical underground killed the
:45:44. > :45:47.school head. TRANSLATION: We don't think murdering people is the way
:45:47. > :45:53.to solve problems, that is not the way to bring about justice. It just
:45:53. > :45:57.makes things worse. This war has been going on for 20 years.
:45:57. > :46:02.But with increasing numbers of young men from villages like these,
:46:02. > :46:09.taking up arms, it seems the very lawlessness of the authorities is
:46:09. > :46:16.feeding this insurgency. It will take a lot more than football stars,
:46:16. > :46:19.and Kerimov's billions, to cure the ills in this deeply divided society.
:46:19. > :46:23.Tomorrow morning's front pages, beginning with the Financial Times,
:46:23. > :46:28.you have the story that the US blocks key climate fund. But below
:46:28. > :46:33.it Tory pledges under pressure, as net migration hits record high. The
:46:33. > :46:37.Mail has another story, the Conservative minister, Michael Gove,
:46:37. > :46:39.he takes on education establishment in a passionate rallying cry for a
:46:39. > :46:49.in a passionate rallying cry for a return to traditional teaching
:46:49. > :47:11.
:47:11. > :47:16.Tonight we leave you with the worst football team in the world. Well,
:47:16. > :47:21.they were the worst, but that may now have changed, after American
:47:21. > :47:31.Samoa finally scored and won a match against Tonga. It followed 0
:47:31. > :47:59.
:47:59. > :48:02.straight defeats in two decades, go Pretty wild night out there, heavy
:48:02. > :48:06.rain and strong winds sweeping across the country. That should
:48:06. > :48:09.have gone by morning. Things settling down. Sunshine for many of
:48:09. > :48:12.us. It will be chilly and the showers across the north will be
:48:12. > :48:16.wintry. Up over the high ground. Further south relatively few
:48:17. > :48:21.showers, one or two getting down through the Midlands. Temperatures
:48:22. > :48:25.struggling a bit until recently. In the breeze it will be cool. A
:48:25. > :48:29.lot of dry weather across southern England. A few showers getting into
:48:29. > :48:35.the south west, by the end of the afternoon. They will have moved in
:48:35. > :48:39.a band through Wales, with sunshine returning afterwards. 10 degrees,
:48:39. > :48:41.fresh, with the wind coming off the sea. Positively chilly further
:48:41. > :48:45.north. For Northern Ireland sixes and sevens will be typical. Still
:48:45. > :48:50.showers to come. Up towards the north coast, a wintry scene across
:48:50. > :48:54.the Highlands of Scotland. Snowfall down to low level, gusty winds,
:48:54. > :48:57.temperatures round about 5-7. Across northern parts of the UK, it
:48:57. > :49:01.stays pretty disturbed into the weekend, rain clouds gathering
:49:01. > :49:04.again. The wind picking up, a stormy spell across the far north
:49:04. > :49:10.into Saturday night. Further south it will be dryer, the winds won't
:49:10. > :49:14.be so strong. Generally not a bad weekend coming up in store. Dry,
:49:14. > :49:18.bright weather, temperatures still not too bad. The rest of the