:00:11. > :00:16.Tonight, hard times, how might ten years of austerity change the face
:00:16. > :00:20.of Britain. We have exclusive new research mapping whether where you
:00:20. > :00:24.live will be hit hard or one of the towns best placed to withstand the
:00:24. > :00:27.tough years ahead. Is the road to recover to be found in the
:00:27. > :00:33.Chancellor's love of new infrastructure projects. Richard
:00:33. > :00:39.Watson spends an interesting day on the A14. In my previous job I was
:00:39. > :00:43.doing boardroom level presentations using power point, now I'm
:00:43. > :00:49.delivering parcels, demeaning but an income. Will we pull together or
:00:49. > :00:52.pull apart, a dismal decade or lasting reform. We will talk to the
:00:52. > :00:57.author of Austerity Britain, and the Bishop of Durham.
:00:57. > :01:01.Britain's ambassador to Iran, relives the moment when the embassy
:01:01. > :01:04.was invaded. Diplomatic property ransacked and diplomatic ties
:01:04. > :01:09.shattered. These are buildings of historic significance, not just for
:01:09. > :01:13.Britain and the world, but Iranian history too. That doesn't seem to
:01:13. > :01:20.have inhibited those who got into the building in vandalising the
:01:20. > :01:26.portraits, tearing the portrait of Queen Vicoria, and cutting out the
:01:26. > :01:30.head of Edward VII. Good evening, the mood from the
:01:30. > :01:34.Bank of England, to the Treasury, to Ten Downing Street this week,
:01:34. > :01:40.seemed to involve various novels from Mark Dixon, Bleak House, Hard
:01:40. > :01:45.Times, but not as far as we know, Oliver Twist. We have had austerity
:01:45. > :01:48.Britain before, despite ups and downs, not the sustained period of
:01:48. > :01:55.economic misery this week's Autumn Statement forecast for as you you
:01:55. > :01:59.will. We have been looking at a study exclusive to Newsnight, by
:01:59. > :02:02.Experian, that reveals which areas will be hit hardest. How did they
:02:02. > :02:06.find out which are the most vulnerable areas? They are looking
:02:06. > :02:09.at the effect of the spending cuts and job cuts that flow from them.
:02:09. > :02:12.This is the first analysis that has been done since the Autumn
:02:12. > :02:18.Statement. It takes into account not only the austerity we already
:02:18. > :02:22.knew about, but also the further austerity that came in with the
:02:22. > :02:26.Autumn Statement. The big real term pay cut, and the 1% pay cap, twice
:02:26. > :02:30.as many public sector workers nearly as we thought would lose
:02:30. > :02:33.their job, 7 10,000 of them. It looks in England, looking at local
:02:33. > :02:40.business, how they are doing, and also how vulnerable local people
:02:40. > :02:45.are to a drop in income. Top, as you can see is red car and
:02:45. > :02:49.Cleveland, second, Hartlepool and Middlesborough. Those three areas
:02:50. > :02:59.are within ten tiles of each other. The pain is not very -- ten miles
:03:00. > :03:05.
:03:05. > :03:09.of each other. The pain is not very If they are most vulnerable, there
:03:09. > :03:19.are some areas less vulnerable? course they are, those aren't very
:03:19. > :03:23.
:03:23. > :03:28.well spread either. If you look at They are the commuter belt.
:03:28. > :03:31.Surrey, and St Albans, it also co- relates with the industries
:03:31. > :03:36.involved. The most vulnerable industries at the moment, according
:03:36. > :03:42.to Experian, are things like engineering and chemical, typically
:03:42. > :03:46.concentrated in places like Teeside. Banking and shuerpbgs, in spite of
:03:46. > :03:50.the crisis, not vulnerable, -- insurance, in spite of the crisis
:03:50. > :03:55.not vulnerable, spread in the south of England. What about income
:03:55. > :03:58.groups? In the next graphic we have a breakdown on how the effect of
:03:58. > :04:02.austerity, how austerity will effect the different income groups.
:04:02. > :04:05.It is not actually the poorest there who are affected worst.
:04:05. > :04:09.Perhaps, partly because, for example, unemployment benefit is
:04:10. > :04:13.going up by 5.2%, so are state pensions. Working Tax Credit. The
:04:13. > :04:17.sorts of benefits that are relied on by the not quite the poorest,
:04:17. > :04:21.but the next poorest, are being cut back. Obviously austerity will bite
:04:22. > :04:24.there. Most of all, if you are working as a nurse, a teacher,
:04:24. > :04:29.local Government worker or central Government, you are facing a real
:04:29. > :04:33.terms pay cut. What this research really shows is if there is pain,
:04:33. > :04:39.it is not very well spread. In fact, it is quite concentrated,
:04:39. > :04:43.particularly in areas like Teeside. I'm joined by Ian Swales, the
:04:43. > :04:46.Liberal Democrat MP for Redcar, the I can't remember considered, as we
:04:47. > :04:50.have been talking about, as the most vulnerable to the years of
:04:50. > :04:53.austerity ahead for all of us. How concerned are you to represent that
:04:54. > :04:57.kind of area? I don't share the pessimism of this study. The
:04:57. > :05:01.Government's determined to rebalance the economy towards the
:05:01. > :05:07.manufacturing and the real economy, and we can already see in our area
:05:07. > :05:11.the effects of that. I think the study is tending to rate sectors
:05:11. > :05:16.like banking and insurance, and underrate the revival we will see
:05:16. > :05:20.in manufacturing. The Government's determined to back that. No doubt.
:05:20. > :05:26.If we came to Redcar, we would not recognise the study, we would see
:05:26. > :05:31.the sunny uplands, we would not see an area most vulnerable to this, as
:05:31. > :05:34.Experian says. You would not see the sunny upland, the area has real
:05:34. > :05:38.problems, the Government recognises that, the Regional Growth Fun was
:05:38. > :05:42.added to by a billion in the Autumn Statement this week. That helps
:05:42. > :05:47.areas like Redcar. I have three enterprise zones in my constituency
:05:47. > :05:50.alone. In this week's statement, they are now going to get 100%
:05:50. > :05:53.capital allowances, because the Government's determined. This
:05:53. > :05:56.Experian research was conducted after the Autumn Statement, it
:05:56. > :06:00.doesn't seem as if the Autumn Statement has done anything at all,
:06:00. > :06:03.except neglect kwhrief, for your constituents? It has done three
:06:03. > :06:07.positive things, the Regional Growth Fun has been expanded, my
:06:07. > :06:10.constituency has been doing very well out of that fund. There has
:06:10. > :06:15.been help for energy-intensive industries. That is very important
:06:15. > :06:21.to our area. Of course, as I said, enterprise zone, which are already
:06:21. > :06:24.all over Teeside now, are getting 100% capital allowances, which will
:06:24. > :06:30.enable people to invest. We can already see people investing, in
:06:30. > :06:33.fact, it is interesting, just last night, a house builder came to
:06:33. > :06:37.Redcar and said they were investing in the town because they could see
:06:37. > :06:40.it bucking the trend and it could actually be an area of success. I
:06:40. > :06:46.think the local picture is a bit different, partly because of the
:06:46. > :06:49.backing from the Government. In an attempt to boost growth, the
:06:49. > :06:53.Chancellor, George Osborne, this week, targeted various parts of the
:06:53. > :06:57.country, with more Government spending on infrastructure projects,
:06:57. > :07:01.things like roads and bridges. He talked about plans to improve the
:07:01. > :07:11.A14 in East Anglia, is that the road to prosperity. We went to find
:07:11. > :07:16.out. It has been very trickery over the
:07:16. > :07:22.past four years, to keep myself fully employed. I have been
:07:22. > :07:32.managing to do part-time work here and there, through agencies, and
:07:32. > :07:34.
:07:34. > :07:43.I'm currently working as a courier. I'm probably, after my expenses,
:07:43. > :07:53.I'm probably earning about �800 a month to clear. That's nowhere near
:07:53. > :07:54.
:07:54. > :07:59.enough. 52-year-old former sales executive, Ian Miller, spends a lot
:07:59. > :08:04.of time on the A14, delivering packages on a freelance basis.
:08:04. > :08:09.Following redundancy, he's grateful for work. It is far from the days
:08:09. > :08:12.of a salary man. I have never had this problem before. I have always
:08:12. > :08:21.thought I would be in full-time employment. It is very difficult to
:08:21. > :08:28.survive, really with food bills increasing all the time. The cost
:08:28. > :08:32.of heating, of house, mortgage, every week we struggle. So the
:08:32. > :08:36.Government has announced plans to spend millions here improving the
:08:36. > :08:41.A14. But will this trickle down to affect the local economy. Britain
:08:41. > :08:47.now faces at least two years of austerity. I spent the day around
:08:47. > :08:50.here speaking to local people about their employment prospects.
:08:50. > :08:56.The A14 corridor, Cambridge to Huntingdon and beyond, has been
:08:56. > :09:00.identified by the Chancellor as a priority for investment. Part of a
:09:00. > :09:08.Keynsian stab at the economy. Ian Miller lives bang in the middle in
:09:08. > :09:12.the village of Swavesey. We accompanied him to his local car
:09:12. > :09:16.wash, staffed up by eastern Europeans. There was no queue, the
:09:16. > :09:21.owner said the 30-car-a-day business was in decline. I have
:09:21. > :09:26.watched one car turn up, how is business? Business has gone down.
:09:26. > :09:30.It is no good. There is no money, everybody no money, no money, no
:09:30. > :09:37.money. People haven't the money to spend? No, nothing. Have you
:09:37. > :09:41.noticed a big difference? Big, big difference this year, to last year.
:09:41. > :09:46.A big difference. Employers say that freedom to hire
:09:46. > :09:53.and fire is the key to surviving any downturn. These workers are
:09:53. > :09:56.probably viewed as fully flexible. But one person's flexibility is
:09:56. > :09:59.another's casualisation, and two years of austerity will further
:09:59. > :10:03.rode the traditional view of employment. What do you think about
:10:03. > :10:07.the political classes, if I can put it like that at the moment. Do they
:10:07. > :10:14.offer any solutions to these problems? I can't see that at the
:10:15. > :10:20.moment, no. Do you have any faith in any of the parts? -- parties? No,
:10:20. > :10:28.I don't. They all team to be doing, singing from the same song sheet,
:10:28. > :10:31.all the time. Nothing inspires me to think things will get better in
:10:31. > :10:35.the short-term. Not everyone is suffering, though, those who can
:10:35. > :10:39.squeeze the lemon harder stand to make cash. We ran into this man,
:10:39. > :10:43.who specialises in equipment fitted to commercial vehicles, which
:10:43. > :10:52.tracks employee performance. It is a good place to be at the moment.
:10:52. > :10:58.Is that because business is keener to press down on costs? Absolutely,
:10:58. > :11:03.operationally, fuel costs, vehicle insurance costs. I don't think if
:11:03. > :11:08.you are able to prove that by spending money you can reduce money,
:11:08. > :11:13.there is still good business to be done. Bonus? Absolutely, one that's
:11:13. > :11:19.picking up the cost for a round the world trip that I'm embarking on
:11:19. > :11:25.tomorrow morning for a month. Roughly how much? Just short of
:11:25. > :11:28.�20,000. �20,000 in this tough economic time? It is one of the
:11:28. > :11:33.businesses that doesn't seem to be adversely affected by the recession.
:11:33. > :11:38.Back at Ian's village, we caught up with a family friend, who has
:11:38. > :11:45.experienced redundancy himself. This skilled commercial welder and
:11:45. > :11:47.former labour manager, mentors 700 apprentices and 450 until full-time
:11:47. > :11:51.construction students. The A14 improvements will allow a new
:11:51. > :11:55.housing development, which isn't too far from Cambridge to go ahead,
:11:55. > :11:59.really to push this one on, it has been sitting in the back for about
:11:59. > :12:04.four or five years now. The A14 will have that knock-on effect, get
:12:04. > :12:10.this town or village started, employ local labour wrecks hope.
:12:10. > :12:20.For many British workers, then, the immediate outNew Looks bleak, the
:12:20. > :12:26.crucial question is -- the immediate outlook looks bleak. Or
:12:26. > :12:31.will -- What will be the effect of years of austerity, how might is
:12:31. > :12:35.reshape our lives. My guests are here to discuss this, we are joined
:12:35. > :12:39.by the Bishop of Durham in our Newcastle studio. David how do you
:12:39. > :12:44.think we will be affected and it might reshape our lives, facing
:12:44. > :12:50.this austerity? I think we might be profoundly affected, our historical
:12:50. > :12:54.parallel, both with the immediate post-car period, and the austerity
:12:54. > :13:01.Britain period, more like the 1930s were like now, the shortage of
:13:01. > :13:06.money, coming out a period of mass unemployment, I don't think we can
:13:06. > :13:09.feed off historical experience for future projection. The nature of
:13:09. > :13:16.British society has changed so fundamentally in the last half
:13:16. > :13:20.century, I would be wary of that. One of the things that people look
:13:20. > :13:24.at is to Greece and Italy and the failure of political elites and
:13:24. > :13:28.lack of confidence in them, do you think that could happen here?
:13:28. > :13:31.Probably not, no. I'm much more worried, frankly, about the
:13:31. > :13:35.austerity that will be imposed by an unelected Government in Greece,
:13:35. > :13:39.particularly, and in Italy as well, because there, the social
:13:39. > :13:45.consequences seems to me to be really frighten. If you get real
:13:45. > :13:49.social disruption, -- frightening, if you get real social disruption
:13:49. > :13:53.and civil disorder because of that austerity, will the army suppress
:13:53. > :13:57.it in the name of an unelected Government. You are getting into
:13:57. > :14:01.dangerous territory. What about here, a Government of the left or
:14:01. > :14:05.right, there was no, even in the 1930s, no appetite for the strong
:14:05. > :14:08.man, they didn't do well? At least there is a sense here that the
:14:08. > :14:13.political institutions have not been discredited, the democratic
:14:13. > :14:16.process hasn't been lost, people may or may not have had their
:14:16. > :14:22.confidence inspired by the Chancellor's list of road works
:14:22. > :14:25.last week, but at least there is a sense that this is ameanable, it is
:14:25. > :14:29.democratically accountable, you could, in theory, vote this
:14:29. > :14:33.Government out, your confidence may not be inspire by the alternative
:14:33. > :14:37.either. When it comes out of your reach as an electorate, that you
:14:37. > :14:41.get the terrifying social consequences. From where you sit,
:14:41. > :14:47.Bishop, do you see the possibility of unrest, or lack of social
:14:47. > :14:51.cohesion, or a chance that we might reevaluate the last 20 or 30 years,
:14:51. > :14:55.become less greedz greedy, less materialistic? That is only going
:14:56. > :14:59.to happen if there is a real change of heart. The A14 is a long way
:14:59. > :15:04.from here up in the north-east, your survey showed very clearly
:15:04. > :15:09.this is the area that will be hit very much the hardest. I think the
:15:09. > :15:16.trouble with austerity is that, what's a slight chill in Chelsea is
:15:16. > :15:20.a pretty good Ice Age up here. There is a serious issue about
:15:20. > :15:23.whether we act with solidarity and people working together or not. For
:15:23. > :15:32.that to happen there has to be a very significant change of heart
:15:32. > :15:40.and change of social attitudes. Also a reexamination of values.
:15:40. > :15:43.much less sanguine than Janet, to be honest, about the necessary
:15:43. > :15:48.future integrity of our democratic system and institutions, given the
:15:48. > :15:51.disconnect we now have between people at large, and politics, and
:15:52. > :15:55.the cynicism, and corrosive cynicism really. That was fine, as
:15:55. > :16:02.it were, that was a healthy scepticism, if you like, when times
:16:02. > :16:08.were good, when times get difficult? Where would that go, we
:16:08. > :16:12.could turn off and be apathetic? Who knows n the 1930s, a terrible
:16:12. > :16:19.shrufrp, mass unemployment, but social order -- slump, mass
:16:19. > :16:22.unemployment, more social order was maintained, it was a cohesive
:16:22. > :16:28.society, people knew their place and expectations were less. All
:16:28. > :16:32.that has changed completely, plus we have this disconnect. Of course
:16:32. > :16:35.it depends, wae simply don't know, and predictions haven't -- and we
:16:35. > :16:39.simply don't know, predictions haven't been accurate, these
:16:39. > :16:44.predictions may be the same way. don't necessarily have confidence
:16:44. > :16:53.in the present governing class Oregan racial of politicians. I
:16:53. > :16:59.have a lot of confidence that the - - Or generation of politicians. I
:16:59. > :17:07.have a lot of confidence in the democratic process. You have no
:17:07. > :17:11.danger of a populist ...What, populist what? Coup or movement.
:17:11. > :17:15.Populisim is an inherent part of democracy, politicians competing
:17:15. > :17:18.for votes in crass ways can be populisim, or responding to public
:17:18. > :17:22.opinion, depending on your point of view. Let me bring in the bishop
:17:22. > :17:26.again, you raise the prospect of whether we will effectively act as
:17:26. > :17:30.a community or not, or we will be divided amongst ourselves, won't we
:17:30. > :17:34.also, perhaps, look at some of the great institutions of the society
:17:34. > :17:37.that we have built up since the war, the welfare state, the National
:17:37. > :17:40.Health Service, and look at the lack of money, and maybe even those
:17:40. > :17:46.things, which have almost been beyond criticism for many people,
:17:46. > :17:50.will be looked at, and perhaps, suffer? The reality is, that it's
:17:50. > :17:54.three years since the recession hit us, it is over three years, well
:17:54. > :17:58.over three years now, we are effectively in a depression.
:17:58. > :18:01.Economically, and in any classical definition. What we're seeing is
:18:01. > :18:06.that these great institutions, which over the years, have served
:18:06. > :18:11.us so well and continued it do so, with great dedication, simply are
:18:11. > :18:16.struggling to find the capacity to do it in the future. That will mean
:18:16. > :18:21.a lot more people taking part in the life of the community, in
:18:21. > :18:27.looking to the common good. That's a very substantial change of
:18:27. > :18:30.attitude. It sounds like the Big Society, doesn't it? Well, that I
:18:30. > :18:35.really couldn't comment about, I think. The Big Society is something
:18:35. > :18:39.that the church has known for a couple of hundred years at least.
:18:39. > :18:42.OK, but moving beyond that, to this question of those great
:18:42. > :18:47.institutions, we may find that Government is simply short of money
:18:47. > :18:51.and has to be conservative, because they can't do things, they can't
:18:51. > :18:56.afford it? I think it is possible there will be a re-thinking of the
:18:56. > :19:03.welfare state, and of its functions and of its scope. I don't think
:19:03. > :19:07.much will be inherently suspicion or antagonistic to the idea of the
:19:07. > :19:11.welfare state or volunteerism, or the Big Society, as was so powerful
:19:11. > :19:14.before the welfare state came along in the 1940s, complimenting each
:19:14. > :19:19.other, I don't think that is necessary a problem. It came out of
:19:19. > :19:25.austerity didn't it? Very much so. But, the fact is, that as we are
:19:25. > :19:29.now structured, the welfare state has huge and own you are inous
:19:30. > :19:34.responsibilities that are only -- ownerous responsibilities that are
:19:34. > :19:38.increasing at the moment. It may be the Government may have to re-think
:19:38. > :19:41.institutions. Welfare reform, the time has come, because it is
:19:41. > :19:46.necessary to reform T I hope this Government, or whatever follows it
:19:46. > :19:52.makes use of that opportunity, to think in a constructive way about
:19:52. > :19:58.reforming it. The entitlement culture has pretty much reached the
:19:58. > :20:01.point of no return. It will have to bring in volunteerism, we will have
:20:01. > :20:05.to re-think the entire benefits question. You pointed out the
:20:05. > :20:14.difference between Chelsea and the area where you are, that would be
:20:14. > :20:18.even very differently, presumably where you sit? We mustn't talk
:20:18. > :20:22.ourselves into a state of despair and sit like rabbits in the
:20:22. > :20:26.headlights. There has to be a clear effort towards regeneration, that
:20:26. > :20:29.covers areas like this. That's going to have to come from renewed
:20:29. > :20:35.confidence in the corporate sector, which is the only one that has
:20:35. > :20:40.significant funds at the moment. And also, by much greater
:20:40. > :20:44.participation, and use of voluntary support, and the kind of Christian
:20:44. > :20:47.commitment that comes from the church and from other bodies, which
:20:47. > :20:54.has historically been one of the great underpinnings of our society,
:20:54. > :21:00.and holds it together, is something that is becomes seen again as
:21:00. > :21:03.essential. I think that's all true. One
:21:03. > :21:08.dimension we haven't pointed out is the question of equity, equity of
:21:08. > :21:13.pay and suffering, we are all in it together. At times it doesn't
:21:13. > :21:16.really feel like that, and one can look at aspects of national life,
:21:16. > :21:20.and some seem far more privileges than others. There have been
:21:21. > :21:27.shocking figures recently to do with chief executive pay, the 49%
:21:27. > :21:31.figure, the recent commission's findings over disparity in the last
:21:31. > :21:36.30 years between normal pay and top pay. Some kind of action, I think,
:21:36. > :21:40.needs to be taken, otherwise there will be resentment. I think that is
:21:40. > :21:42.true, the action has to be taken on the part of people with personal
:21:42. > :21:45.moral responsibility. It would be dangerous idea that the Government
:21:45. > :21:52.should some how intervene in what individuals are paid, that would be
:21:52. > :21:55.a dangerous road to go down. Britain's ambassador to Iran has
:21:55. > :21:59.described to Newsnight the terrible moments when the embassy in Tehran
:21:59. > :22:03.was invaded by a mob, personal effects were looted. Property
:22:03. > :22:07.defaced or destroyed. The expulsions of Iranian diplomats,
:22:07. > :22:15.that took place today, means relations which what is a pivitol
:22:15. > :22:20.regional power, are at a low point. With me is the BBC Iranian
:22:20. > :22:25.correspondent, now in London. First of all, remind us what happened?
:22:25. > :22:29.Tuesday there were demonstration, demonstrators broke into two
:22:29. > :22:34.different compounds in Tehran, the embassy, where the ambassador and
:22:34. > :22:39.his staff were in a safe room, and the residential compound where non-
:22:39. > :22:44.essential staff were sheltering. The protestors were from a
:22:44. > :22:49.paramilitary volunteer force linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard, that
:22:49. > :22:54.reports directly to Iran's Supreme Leader. The feel anything Britain
:22:54. > :22:58.is this was state-sponsored. What kicked it off? It was sparked in
:22:58. > :23:02.the latest saga between the west and Iran's nuclear programme. In
:23:02. > :23:07.November the IAA released a report into Iran's nuclear ambitions n
:23:07. > :23:10.response Britain decided to cut ties with Iran's banks, that
:23:10. > :23:15.angered Iran, Iran vote today downgrade ties with Britain. At the
:23:15. > :23:18.same time an important anniversary was coming up, that of the
:23:18. > :23:22.assassination of an important nuclear scientist in Iran, and they
:23:22. > :23:26.say that Britain and Israel za did t they don't have diplomatic
:23:26. > :23:31.relations with Israel, so anger focused on Britain. It is important
:23:31. > :23:35.to point out where we are with the nuclear programme, Iran says it is
:23:36. > :23:40.peaceful but continues to enrich uranium. It is a covert war going
:23:40. > :23:44.on, a lot of mystery explosions, and talk of cyberwarfare. We
:23:44. > :23:47.understand there was mazery explosion outside Tehran, 17
:23:47. > :23:51.soldiers were killed, and one general, the founder of Iran's
:23:51. > :23:55.missile programme, but the nature of a cyberwar, a covert war, is
:23:55. > :23:59.nobody talks about it. But the British, in terms of this incident,
:23:59. > :24:04.are convinced this was instigated by the regime, or they stood by
:24:04. > :24:07.while it went on? Yes, one of the British points is what they saw at
:24:07. > :24:10.their embassy, reflects the power struggle that is going on at the
:24:10. > :24:16.moment in Iran, it is not between the Government and the opposition,
:24:16. > :24:19.that happened in 2009, the defining conflict in 2011 is within the
:24:19. > :24:22.conservative movement. On the one hand you have President Ahmadinejad,
:24:22. > :24:26.he has the support of the working- class, he wants to get clerics out
:24:26. > :24:29.of politics. On the other hand you have the Supreme Leader, he has the
:24:29. > :24:36.clerics and the Revolutionary Guard. It was his people, Britain believes,
:24:36. > :24:44.who went into that embassy. The ayo Tola doesn't travel, he hasn't left
:24:44. > :24:48.Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad likes to travel, the key point is this,
:24:48. > :24:54.empty embassies suit the Ayotollay more.
:24:54. > :24:58.The British ambassador has returned to the UK, and spoke to me at the
:24:59. > :25:05.Foreign Office earlier. I asked him who was to blame? Iran is not the
:25:05. > :25:10.sort of country where spontaneously a demonstration congregates and
:25:10. > :25:14.attacks an embassy. That sort of thing only happens with the support
:25:14. > :25:20.of the state. There were a number of reasons, with the benefit of
:25:20. > :25:29.hindsight, it is very clear this was a state-supported activity. The
:25:29. > :25:34.main organisation involved in holding the rally were the Basig h
:25:34. > :25:38.students, they are a state organised but very widespread,
:25:38. > :25:42.almost paramilitary force. They report to the IRGC, who report to
:25:42. > :25:46.the Supreme Leader, so there is a chain of command that the students
:25:46. > :25:49.fit into. That goes up to the top of the state. You took quite a lot
:25:49. > :25:52.of pictures of the damage, immediately around you, you didn't
:25:52. > :25:57.have much time, but you did photograph it. Perhaps you can
:25:57. > :26:02.describe some of the things that were damaged. Some of it just looks
:26:02. > :26:06.like vandalism? A lot of it was vandalism. I was very fortunate
:26:06. > :26:09.that I was living in one of the great historic residences that the
:26:09. > :26:13.British Government owns around the world. That doesn't seem to have
:26:13. > :26:17.inhibited the people who got into the building in vandalising the
:26:17. > :26:22.portraits, tearing the portraits of Queen Vicoria in two, and removing
:26:22. > :26:27.the bottom half. Cutting out the head of Edward VII, removing the
:26:27. > :26:31.picture of our present Queen, and doing willful damage to furniture
:26:31. > :26:38.and writing graffiti on the walls and smashing up the room where is
:26:38. > :26:46.they could. It felt like, you know, very spiteful, mindless vandalism.
:26:46. > :26:50.It wasn't quite mindless. They also renofd anything electronic. --
:26:50. > :26:56.removed anything electronic, mobile telephones, personal equipment,
:26:56. > :27:01.computers, and anything that might give information about who you were
:27:01. > :27:05.talking to, or what you were doing. They went after that very clearly.
:27:05. > :27:09.Did it ever occur to you, that you might be taken hostage, as happened
:27:09. > :27:12.to the Americans some 30 years ago? It would be untrue to say that
:27:12. > :27:16.those thoughts don't go through your mind, of course, you hope
:27:16. > :27:19.that's not going to happen. I would like to say something about the
:27:19. > :27:23.northern compound. The experience of staff there was more difficult
:27:23. > :27:27.than for us. The first aim is to get off the compound as quickly as
:27:27. > :27:32.you can. Two of our staff managed that. But because the crowd came in
:27:32. > :27:36.quickly, they blocked off the escape exits for the others. The
:27:36. > :27:42.others of the staff went to their safe houses, and locked themselves
:27:42. > :27:45.into what we call our "keeps" the idea is you stay safe for a limit
:27:45. > :27:49.the amount of time, until the police can turn up and rescue you.
:27:49. > :27:53.That doesn't work if the police have no intention of coming to
:27:53. > :27:57.rescue you in the first place. One colleague had locked himself
:27:57. > :28:04.properly in his keep, he had pressed a heavy safe against the
:28:04. > :28:07.iron door, and a bed against the safe, and braced himself against
:28:07. > :28:10.the bed, they came for him because they knew he was there. They are
:28:10. > :28:15.banging on the doors, you can imagine, they are breaking the
:28:15. > :28:20.windows and trying to bash the door in. He kept them out for 45 minutes,
:28:20. > :28:24.at the end the door was broken around him, but the keep had done
:28:24. > :28:28.his stuff. But there were no rescuers coming to help him. Do you
:28:28. > :28:32.think you were, in a sense, collateral damage in a big power
:28:32. > :28:36.struggle going on at the top of the regime? The invasion of the two
:28:36. > :28:40.compounds was not unconnected with the resolution that was passed two
:28:40. > :28:49.days earlier, to downgrade relations and expel me as the
:28:49. > :28:53.ambassador. And the instigators of that resolution were the speaker of
:28:53. > :28:58.the foreign affairs committee. Both those people have high ambitions,
:28:58. > :29:03.as you know, one of the principals of the Islamic Revolution of Iran
:29:03. > :29:06.is that you can do yourself a lot of good by bashing the Brits. They
:29:06. > :29:15.both said after the resolution was passed to downgrade the
:29:15. > :29:21.relationship, they said Britain, this is only the beginning. Key
:29:21. > :29:25.Largo larg said that, and -- Ali Larijani said, that and the speaker
:29:25. > :29:29.said mark the words, this is only the beginning. Is it your
:29:29. > :29:32.assessment that there are, therefore, some people in power in
:29:33. > :29:37.Iran, who would welcome a serious confrontation with the British,
:29:37. > :29:41.Americans, Israelis, with whom ever, because that will solidify their
:29:41. > :29:45.political position? I think there is an element in their thinking
:29:45. > :29:49.that goes along those lines. There is a huge degree and risk of
:29:49. > :29:53.miscalculation. I tried to say this when I was in Iran talking to the
:29:53. > :29:59.Ministry of Foreign Affairs people, and to the Foreign Minister, that
:29:59. > :30:05.they shouldn't underestimate the sense of determination of the west
:30:05. > :30:10.to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions. So I think they probably
:30:10. > :30:13.didn't expect us to send home the Iranian Embassy from London. You
:30:13. > :30:19.can, reading through the lines, you can see in the way they have
:30:19. > :30:26.responded to that move, some remorse in having provoked it. I
:30:26. > :30:31.think that might apply more generally too.
:30:31. > :30:34.Thank you very much. That's all from Newsnight tonight, join Jeremy
:30:34. > :30:39.for a major investigation to the causes of the summer riots, in