:00:08. > :00:14.Tonight, now that the euro trashing of David Cameron is starting to
:00:14. > :00:22.subside, here come the Czech Republic and the hur gairians
:00:22. > :00:26.saying they won't sign up to tax harmonisation either. We will ask
:00:26. > :00:31.the Czech ambassador if the EU is unravelling before the treaty is
:00:31. > :00:36.agreed. Also tonight, the British army gets
:00:36. > :00:40.its next deployment orders. It is 13,500 pairs of boots on the ground
:00:40. > :00:42.in London to help keep the Olympics safe. Many will be working under
:00:42. > :00:46.the direction of private security firms.
:00:46. > :00:50.Reflecting in the shock of the year of the Arab Spring, the cry was
:00:50. > :00:54."democracy", how much of that desire will now be
:00:54. > :00:58.achieved.$$NEWLINE Did we predict all this dizzying dysfunction last
:00:59. > :01:04.year, well, no we didn't. But the result is likely to owe more to
:01:04. > :01:09.Arab culture and history, than it is to western notions of freedom
:01:09. > :01:15.and equality. I will be talking to a five-star
:01:15. > :01:22.cast, including Henry Kissinger, Simon Schama, and a Nobel Prize
:01:22. > :01:26.winner. Good evening. The angry red mist
:01:26. > :01:32.that has hung over Europe since David Cameron said non to putting
:01:32. > :01:37.Britain's name to an EU-wide treaty change, is starting to turn into a
:01:37. > :01:43.haze of uncertainty, as to which of the 26 countries will be part of it,
:01:43. > :01:49.if it happens at all. The Czech Republic and Hungary said they were
:01:49. > :01:51.against the pact to harmonise tax rates, and the Danes and the Swedes
:01:51. > :01:54.have concerns too over the austerity measures in the deal.
:01:54. > :01:58.Tonight it was confirmed British officials will be allowed it take
:01:58. > :02:05.part in talks over a new treaty, despite Mr Cameron's veto. How
:02:05. > :02:11.despite Mr Cameron's veto. How serious is the threat of isolation?
:02:11. > :02:14.1234 the odd man out, the party wrecker, the man who put selfish
:02:14. > :02:18.national interests before the economic well being of a continent.
:02:18. > :02:21.At least, that's what much of the initial European reaction to David
:02:21. > :02:24.Cameron's veto at last week's Brussels summit would have you
:02:24. > :02:28.believe. The reality might be rather
:02:28. > :02:33.different. As the days have gone on, it has become clear that there are
:02:33. > :02:36.politicians and voters in many European countries worried, just as
:02:36. > :02:44.Mr Cameron was, about the implications of closer financial
:02:44. > :02:47.co-ordination. Cameron's veto of this EU treaty
:02:47. > :02:50.quite clearly complicated things a bit more. But it wasn't the only
:02:50. > :02:53.reason, and far from it, that European leaders are now struggling
:02:54. > :03:00.to reach an agreement. Because there is no agreement, even. There
:03:00. > :03:05.are no details, there are no firm deals on the table, this is all in
:03:05. > :03:11.the open. To reduce these very complicated discussions and
:03:11. > :03:21.political debate going on at the moment, to a 26 versus 1 narive is
:03:21. > :03:21.
:03:21. > :03:26.incorrect. Last -- last week all the talk was one versus 26, as if
:03:26. > :03:32.Britain had cut itself free, but now it is looking less solid.
:03:32. > :03:36.Countries outside the eurozone, Sweden, Hungary and the Czech
:03:36. > :03:39.Republic expressing serious doubts about signing up to a deal. The
:03:39. > :03:43.Czech Republic and the Swedes, who have their own currencies, said
:03:43. > :03:45.they wanted to help stablise the eurozone, but wouldn't risk
:03:45. > :03:49.damaging their own competitive edge, by giving up their independent tax
:03:49. > :03:54.policies. TRANSLATION: One of the important
:03:54. > :03:58.conditions for joining the EU inter-governmental pact, is to see
:03:58. > :04:04.what rules the agreement contains, of which we don't know the details.
:04:04. > :04:08.We know for sure in Hungary that we don't wish to join any agreement
:04:08. > :04:10.with steps towards tax harmonisation. Talk of tax
:04:10. > :04:14.harmonisation is difficult for all countries who agreed to last week's
:04:14. > :04:18.deal that aren't in the eurozone. Countries outside the your stkron,
:04:18. > :04:21.I think, have a bit of a hard time figuring out why they should take
:04:21. > :04:26.part in something that is clearly a sign for those member states that
:04:26. > :04:31.share the single currency. Look at Sweden, for example, Sweden will
:04:31. > :04:35.possibly be completely debt-free in 2018, 2019, and yet they are now
:04:35. > :04:39.being asked to sign up to rules that are designed to rein in public
:04:39. > :04:43.spendings for countries that have run a large public deficit for
:04:43. > :04:48.years, it doesn't quite make sense. Even within the eurozone there are
:04:48. > :04:51.doubts. The man who will be Nicolas Sarkozy's socialist rival, in next
:04:51. > :04:56.spring's presidential elections in France, says he will renegotiate
:04:56. > :05:00.any deal to ensure the country's bugetry independence. The head of
:05:00. > :05:04.France's Central Bank was concentrating on attacking Britain,
:05:04. > :05:08.saying London's credit rating should be downgraded. Meanwhile, in
:05:08. > :05:11.Germany, one prominent opposition leader complained that last week's
:05:11. > :05:16.deal nearly created a constitutional crisis without
:05:16. > :05:21.solving the original problem of the euro. The common theme throughout
:05:21. > :05:25.this eurozone crisis is markets demand a certain type of action
:05:25. > :05:29.that national democracies simply can't deliver. Markets want more
:05:29. > :05:34.fiscal integration, more taxation powers to be concentrated centrally
:05:34. > :05:38.at the EU level, but voters and parliaments in these various member
:05:38. > :05:43.states don't have any appetite for that kind of action at all.
:05:43. > :05:47.Getting parliamentary approval for a treaty could be hardest in
:05:47. > :05:51.Hungary, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. In Ireland
:05:51. > :05:55.there may have to be a referendum. But could the current outsider,
:05:55. > :06:00.Britain, come back in? British officials, it was confirmed today,
:06:00. > :06:03.will be invited to future talks on the deal. It would be difficult,
:06:03. > :06:07.because Nicolas Sarkozy would have to climb down, having proclaimed
:06:07. > :06:11.his great success in establishing his new body. David Cameron would
:06:12. > :06:14.have to accept a treaty of all 27, I'm sure he would get certain
:06:14. > :06:18.concessions, he would get safeguards on the City f he wanted
:06:18. > :06:21.them. If he renegotiated in advance, which he didn't do last week, but
:06:21. > :06:23.he would have to push it through parliament, he might find it
:06:24. > :06:26.difficult to push through parliament. So the pressure of
:06:26. > :06:29.electorate, particularly in certain countries, will continue to push
:06:29. > :06:33.one way, the pressure of markets another.
:06:33. > :06:38.This week the euro fell to its lowest rate against the dollar
:06:38. > :06:41.since January. A reminder that even when the current wrangling over the
:06:41. > :06:47.future architecture of the union is completed, the fight will still be
:06:47. > :06:51.on to save its currency. How many member states might
:06:51. > :06:54.actually be left by the time the deal is finalise. With me is the
:06:54. > :06:59.Czech Republic's ambassador to Britain, and from Brussels I'm
:06:59. > :07:04.joined by the adviser to Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the
:07:04. > :07:08.European council. First of all, why was it important for your Prime
:07:08. > :07:13.Minister to set the record straight today? We have been saying that
:07:13. > :07:23.since the beginning, I mean, the first problem is that the treaty
:07:23. > :07:29.
:07:29. > :07:33.that was brought last week was like the Loch Ness monster, people had
:07:33. > :07:36.opinions about it, but nobody had seen it. We have said from the
:07:36. > :07:41.beginning we are waiting to see the details, because the devil is often
:07:41. > :07:44.maybe in the details. Like the Loch Ness monster we don't know the
:07:44. > :07:49.shape either F it involves tax harmonisation, your Prime Minister
:07:49. > :07:55.has made it clear, that is not going to fly? Yes, that is one of
:07:55. > :08:02.our red lines. And it is possible that there will not be an explicit
:08:02. > :08:06.clause on tax harmonisation, but should budget supervision, that is
:08:06. > :08:12.being proposed by the treaty, you know, states, countries could be
:08:12. > :08:17.told you know, you have to increase your corporation tax or decrease it,
:08:17. > :08:21.whatever, we don't think it is the right idea. Obviously there are
:08:21. > :08:27.concerns expressed in Hungary and Sweden and Denmark, how likely is
:08:27. > :08:33.it that a new treaty, if it is formed, that 26 will sign up to it?
:08:33. > :08:37.We think it is very important that the 27 stay together as much as
:08:37. > :08:42.possible. This is a serious situation, and we do want to be
:08:43. > :08:48.responsible. We do want to contribute to the stablisation of
:08:48. > :08:52.the situation. At the same time, we have to keep in mind that is not
:08:52. > :08:58.about rescuing the economy, but about sovereign debt. What we are
:08:58. > :09:02.missing in the treaty is article about growth, about competitiveness,
:09:02. > :09:05.about things that will get us up and growing again. But when David
:09:05. > :09:10.Cameron was talking about having to look after the national interest,
:09:10. > :09:15.beyond the interest of the 27, he wasn't wrong, was he? That really
:09:15. > :09:20.would be the Czech position as well? Well, yes. We do have a
:09:20. > :09:26.position that there are national interests involved as well. We do
:09:26. > :09:32.have a position not that different from the British position, that the
:09:32. > :09:38.Common Market of the 27 countries is the crucial part of the European
:09:38. > :09:41.Union, and that we should all try to help preserve it at all costs.
:09:41. > :09:46.We have just had information tonight that British officials will
:09:47. > :09:53.be, it says here, allowed to take part in talks about a new European
:09:53. > :09:57.treaty. Can I just confirm, is it taking part in talks, or observing.
:09:57. > :10:01.Will there be sie silent observing or taking part in talk, which will
:10:02. > :10:05.be l it be? I think they will have the right to speak at those talks
:10:05. > :10:09.and put their view forward. The agreement that is being negotiated
:10:09. > :10:13.is among the other member states of the union. Certainly all eurozone
:10:13. > :10:17.countries, and all the other ones that choose to join in. The UK has
:10:17. > :10:22.already indicated it does not wish to join in with that treaty, unless
:10:22. > :10:25.it changes its mind, therefore it will be in the sense, an observer
:10:25. > :10:29.at the talks. It will be an observer, it will be allowed it
:10:29. > :10:33.take part in the talks, is it possible British officials will
:10:33. > :10:36.have an influence on these talks, or not? Of course you can have an
:10:36. > :10:40.influence if you are there and talking, but if you are not going
:10:40. > :10:43.to be party to the agreement, obviously your influence is less
:10:43. > :10:48.than those actually negotiating an agreement among themselves. Who
:10:48. > :10:51.will have different views. I heard you talking about tax harmonisation.
:10:51. > :10:55.Member states have very different views on that, and there is a large
:10:55. > :10:59.number of countries who don't want that to be subject to majority
:10:59. > :11:04.voting, not just Britain, one can think of Estonia, Luxembourg,
:11:04. > :11:10.Cyprus, all kinds of countries. That is unlikely to be, that point
:11:10. > :11:14.is unlikely to change among 26 or among 27, that would still require
:11:14. > :11:18.unanimity. You have just heard the Czech ambassador liken it to the
:11:18. > :11:22.Loch Ness monster, what form will it actually take? What teeth will
:11:23. > :11:27.it have? If your people are saying they are all subject to qualified
:11:27. > :11:31.majority voting, we won't have tax harmonisation, there may be an
:11:31. > :11:36.issue over corporation tax, transaction tax, you might be left
:11:36. > :11:40.with nothing? Tax harmonisation is not the central issue of the
:11:40. > :11:45.negotiations. The central issue is about fiscal discipline, that is
:11:45. > :11:48.about avoiding excessive deficits and excessive debt levels. It is
:11:48. > :11:52.not about harmonising particular forms of tax, that is an element
:11:53. > :11:56.that some countries wish to discuss in this traik, but the central part
:11:56. > :12:01.of it -- framework, but the central part is about fiscal discipline.
:12:01. > :12:05.That is what the talks will be based on, fiscal discipline among
:12:05. > :12:13.members of the eurozone. Can I get a sense of what would be a success,
:12:13. > :12:19.is it necessary, in your view, for -- 26 to sign up to it, or are you
:12:19. > :12:23.happy for eight or nine to ratify it? The key thing is fiscal
:12:23. > :12:29.discipline that is the eurozone countries wish to impose upon
:12:29. > :12:33.themselves to help stablise the euro. The essential thing is the
:12:34. > :12:41.euro zone countries join up, and most of the others do wish to do so.
:12:41. > :12:46.Let's be clear, he's saying most of the others do wish to do so?
:12:46. > :12:53.others do wish to take part in negotiations. We do agree that
:12:53. > :12:58.fiscal discipline is crucial at this point. Actually many of the
:12:58. > :13:02.countries outside the eurozone have already taken steps to endorse and
:13:02. > :13:08.strengthen fiscal discipline. The Czech parliament yesterday approved
:13:08. > :13:15.a new budget which is an austerity budget, and at the same time our,
:13:15. > :13:19.that is something like 40% of the GDP compared to the 90% of GDP in
:13:19. > :13:23.the eurozone. In some ways we are ahead of the trend. But at the same
:13:23. > :13:27.time, it will be for the eurozone member countries to take the
:13:27. > :13:31.commitments and the institutions in their lepblgs -- constitutions in
:13:31. > :13:35.their legislation to keep their budgets balanced. Because the
:13:35. > :13:39.countries outside the eurozone cannot take that, may take that
:13:39. > :13:43.commitment when they join. outside the eurozone, coming back
:13:43. > :13:46.to you on that very point about the country's outside the eurozone, you
:13:46. > :13:52.seem remarkably relaxed that as long as you have the 17 on board,
:13:53. > :13:58.it doesn't really matter for the others. So why was all the who ho
:13:58. > :14:01.had a -- ho had a about Cameron from Merkel and Sarkozy in
:14:01. > :14:04.particular? It was always initially about whether the eurozone
:14:04. > :14:08.countries could take on extra fiscal disciplines, and those other
:14:08. > :14:16.countries that so wish, remember most of them want to join the euro
:14:16. > :14:19.in due course. As it was every country but one will want to be in
:14:19. > :14:22.the negotiations. They will still have things they disagree on in the
:14:22. > :14:27.negotiation, but they all want to negotiate an agreement. That is
:14:27. > :14:30.where we are now. Later in the propbl, we will be
:14:30. > :14:34.discussing with Henry Kissinger, Simon Schama and others, the
:14:34. > :14:38.realities and myths of this year's called Arab Spring, and what chance
:14:38. > :14:40.is there for future revolutions and western interventions. Before that,
:14:40. > :14:44.today brought a startling announcement about the London
:14:44. > :14:47.Olympics, it was always going to be a military contingent involved in
:14:47. > :14:51.security at the games, but today, unexpectedly, the Government
:14:51. > :14:55.announced the number of soldiers at the games would almost triple. In
:14:55. > :14:59.fact there will be more soldiers in East London in July, than in
:14:59. > :15:03.Afghanistan right now. I'm joined by Richard Watson, what was
:15:03. > :15:09.announced today? The detail is fascinating. The original plan was
:15:09. > :15:14.for a security force of about 10thou for the entire Olympics --
:15:14. > :15:20.10,000 for the entire Olympics. That was dramatically increased to
:15:20. > :15:23.23,700 after a detailed review. The MoD confirmed today that 13,500
:15:23. > :15:29.members of the armed force, military personnel there, will now
:15:29. > :15:33.be deployed to the Olympics, a staggering number in way. Up to
:15:33. > :15:38.7,500 of these people would be used for venue security, 5 though will
:15:38. > :15:48.support the police. There will be 1 -- 5,000 will support the police.
:15:48. > :15:52.
:15:52. > :15:59.There will be a 1,000 contingency, unarmed force, for a -- an Olympic-
:15:59. > :16:04.related terrorist attack. Everyone knows London is a target. We know
:16:05. > :16:09.there will be naval ships deployed, HMS Ocean in the Thames. Typhoon
:16:09. > :16:12.jets on stand bi. We have surface- to-air missile capability. It is
:16:12. > :16:16.important to say, the terrorist threat level hasn't changed. A lot
:16:16. > :16:20.of this planning was done on the terrorist threat level of severe,
:16:20. > :16:24.it is now substantial. That is not directly behind this, but what we
:16:24. > :16:27.are going to see is Armed Forces for a long time have been part of
:16:27. > :16:31.the planning process. We will see specialists deployed, undercover,
:16:31. > :16:36.sometimes, for example, surveillance experts, sniper cover,
:16:36. > :16:40.all those kinds of people. How safe are these games going to be, how
:16:41. > :16:44.safe can the games be? It is about getting the balance right. As
:16:44. > :16:48.sources said to me today, if you bring on more Armed Forces
:16:48. > :16:53.personnel, you can hasten the through of people into the stadium,
:16:53. > :16:56.and avoid the allegation that the games is a failure because of huge
:16:56. > :17:00.queues. I was chat to go a security forced to, who said they are
:17:00. > :17:02.expecting a lot of intelligence charter during the games, from
:17:02. > :17:05.foreign overseas intelligence agencies, who will be sensitive
:17:05. > :17:10.about any allegations of plots, they will be receiving information
:17:10. > :17:13.into the UK on that. Plus charter from the UK, aspirational
:17:13. > :17:18.terrorists, the talking about attacking the games, however
:17:18. > :17:23.unlikely that may be. Lasty, it is important to remember, terrorists -
:17:23. > :17:29.- lastly, the terrorists may not choose to target the games, they
:17:29. > :17:35.are highly protected. Look at 2005 all the focus was on G8 in Scotland,
:17:35. > :17:38.and we saw the London bombings. Earlier I spoke to the minister,
:17:38. > :17:42.Philip Hammond, and asked was the increase in military was due to a
:17:42. > :17:47.security threat? No, the planning threat level remains exactly the
:17:47. > :17:52.same. As you know, because the Olympic authority has made this
:17:52. > :17:57.year. There has been a requirement to increase the number of people
:17:57. > :17:59.used in venue guarding, up to about 23 though. When we have looked at
:18:00. > :18:05.how best to recruit and deliver those numbers of people, the
:18:05. > :18:10.question has arisen whether the military could provide some support,
:18:10. > :18:15.and the army have concluded that they could deliver 7,500 people
:18:15. > :18:19.towards that 23,000 total, without impacting on any of the other
:18:19. > :18:24.obligations and tasks that the military undertakes. The additional
:18:24. > :18:27.personnel are not being deployed in a policing role, they are being
:18:28. > :18:33.deployed as venue security personnel, to help with the
:18:33. > :18:36.searching and control of people coming into the stadiums and venues,
:18:36. > :18:40.to make sure, airline-style, that nothing that shouldn't be in there,
:18:40. > :18:46.gets in. Will they have access to weapons if
:18:46. > :18:50.they need them? No they won't. They will be unarmed, working alongside
:18:50. > :18:53.unarmed security guards and unarmed volunteers. The police, of course,
:18:53. > :18:57.and if necessary, military support to the police, would be available,
:18:57. > :19:02.if any threat arose. But these people will be doing an unarmed
:19:02. > :19:07.role. So soldiers working to bosses in a
:19:07. > :19:11.private security firm? The overall control of venue security will be
:19:11. > :19:14.managed by a private security contractor, there will be groups of
:19:14. > :19:20.soldiers working alongside private security guards, and volunteers,
:19:20. > :19:23.they will, of course, be managed directly by military personnel. But
:19:23. > :19:27.ultimately, the security at the venues will not be run by the
:19:27. > :19:35.military, the military will be providing man power support. It
:19:35. > :19:43.will be the civilian contractor and ultimately the police. They will be
:19:43. > :19:47.in control. We l we be able to tell the mill stree staff? They will be
:19:47. > :19:50.wearing uniforms. No Olympic T- shirts? Possibly, but army combat
:19:50. > :19:56.trousers and boots, you will be able to spot the soldiers. Is the
:19:56. > :20:00.MoD picking up the tab for this extra staffing? The additional
:20:00. > :20:03.7,500 people supplied as part of the venue-guarding force, will be
:20:03. > :20:08.paid for from the Olympic budget. There will be no additional cost to
:20:08. > :20:12.the MoD. Will it be cheaper for the Olympic
:20:12. > :20:19.organisers? Not necessarily cheaper. But we do believe that it will be
:20:19. > :20:23.more resilient. We can deliver 7,500 troops into the equation.
:20:23. > :20:27.That makes the recruiting and training challenge for the civilian
:20:27. > :20:31.contractor that much more managable. It makes the whole arrangements
:20:31. > :20:34.much more robust. Did David Cameron make this decision? It was a
:20:34. > :20:37.decision made collectively by a committee of the cabinet, that has
:20:37. > :20:41.been working on the Olympic arrangements. Was David Cameron in
:20:41. > :20:45.the room when the decision was made? Yes, of course he was.
:20:45. > :20:49.this all about showing British spirit, now? It is a practical
:20:49. > :20:53.solution, we are absolutely determined to ensure that the 2012
:20:53. > :20:57.Olympics goes off smoothly. Is a very successful games, and that
:20:57. > :21:03.people come here confident they will be safe and secure. We believe
:21:03. > :21:06.that the military support to the policing effort, as well as the
:21:06. > :21:09.additional 7,500 military personnel, that will be guarding the venues,
:21:09. > :21:14.will reassure the public, and those military personnel will be very
:21:14. > :21:22.pleased to have the opportunity to take part in what will be a once in
:21:22. > :21:26.a lifetime exercise in London. year will be remembered as the year
:21:26. > :21:30.of the Arab Spring, when turmoil, determination and revolution and
:21:30. > :21:34.not a little bloodshed, overturned regimes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya,
:21:34. > :21:37.in the name of democracy, and started the different journey to a
:21:37. > :21:40.different kind of Government. In a moment we will discuss the
:21:40. > :21:48.importance of what happened in 2011, and what it means for other Arab
:21:48. > :21:56.states, from Syria to Saudi Arabia in 2012. For with his assessment on
:21:56. > :22:01.a year of immense change in the Middle East is our correspondent.
:22:01. > :22:06.Today there is violence in Syria, political upheaval in Egypt, and
:22:06. > :22:10.the kind of armed truce in Libya. In Yemen the President has stepped
:22:10. > :22:13.down, and although his clan still runs the country, in Bahrain the
:22:14. > :22:23.ruler has conceded that his riot police used excessive force against
:22:24. > :22:25.
:22:25. > :22:31.protestors. Did we predict all this dizzying
:22:31. > :22:35.dysfunction last year? No we -- we didn't, what is the bigger
:22:35. > :22:39.picture we can draw from it. That is still very hard to say, apart
:22:39. > :22:43.from the fact that Arab leaders who try to do business as usual, are
:22:43. > :22:51.facing an unprecedented challenge. But, they are there are some clues
:22:51. > :22:57.emerging as to the trend of these events.
:22:57. > :23:02.It began in Tunisia, a market trader denied a permit by corrupt
:23:02. > :23:07.officials, and burned himself to death.
:23:07. > :23:16.Within weeks the tumult toppled their first leader, President Ben
:23:16. > :23:24.Ali. What happened in Tunisia resonated
:23:24. > :23:30.across the Arab world for two reasons. It touched a common desire
:23:30. > :23:40.for dignity, freedom from petty officials. Also, in overthrowing a
:23:40. > :23:41.
:23:41. > :23:46.long-serving, undemocratic leader, Tunisia showed it could be done.
:23:46. > :23:52.Very quickly there was a copycat effect, despotic leaders feared a
:23:52. > :23:58.contagion spreading through the region. And they reacted. The way
:23:58. > :24:01.that they were able to fight back depended on the strength of their
:24:01. > :24:09.security apparatus and the tribal structure of their country, in
:24:09. > :24:16.Libya, the key factor was the penally of Muammar Gaddafi himself.
:24:16. > :24:26.They love me, all my people love me, all. They will die to protect me,
:24:26. > :24:30.my people. And while the Egyptian army stood firm, it was powerful
:24:30. > :24:37.enough to consider its interests more important than those of Hosni
:24:37. > :24:41.Mubarak, who it dumped. TRANSLATION: The Armed Forces make
:24:41. > :24:45.a commitment to caring for the people's legitimate demands, and to
:24:45. > :24:48.seek to follow their implementation within the time frames, until the
:24:48. > :24:58.complete transfer of power, and the achievement of the democratic free
:24:58. > :25:04.
:25:04. > :25:08.society, which people aspire to. Everyone is in the street, they are
:25:08. > :25:13.cheering that Mubarak has left. Thank God that he did. You can see
:25:13. > :25:18.everyone is in the treat, thank God that he left. We are very happy, we
:25:18. > :25:24.have nothing except happiness, happiness, we wish nothing else. We
:25:24. > :25:28.wish Mubarak go away, and we will order ourselves.
:25:28. > :25:36.In Libya, the army was weak, and soon fractured, as did the country.
:25:36. > :25:41.Along an historic fault line. NATO was involved, bombing on
:25:41. > :25:46.behalf of the easterners, those who had fermented revolution in
:25:46. > :25:49.Benghazi. It was the sole military intervention of its kind, because
:25:49. > :25:53.Gaddafi was widely loathed and a diplomatic consensus against him
:25:53. > :25:59.could easily be achieved. Security Council has authorised the
:25:59. > :26:06.use of force. Including enforcement of a no-fly zone, to protect
:26:06. > :26:12.civilians and civilian areas, targeted by Colonel Gaddafi, his
:26:12. > :26:17.intelligence and security forces and his mercenaries.
:26:17. > :26:21.In Bahrain, where the Amir called on Saudis to help crush protests,
:26:21. > :26:26.there was strong regional support, and a western reluctance to
:26:27. > :26:34.challenge the power structure. And while the slogans were the same
:26:34. > :26:38.across the region, the outcomes by the end of 2011 were starting to
:26:38. > :26:44.look subtley different. One key reason for that was the variation
:26:44. > :26:47.in local power structures. Elections in Tunisia and Egypt have
:26:47. > :26:52.shown that dignity and freedom are defined for many Arabs in an
:26:52. > :26:56.Islamic way. The longing for a free vote does
:26:56. > :27:01.not necessarily mean then the adoption of western concepts of
:27:01. > :27:08.fairness or human rights. That's left Egypt's Coptic
:27:08. > :27:13.Christian minority, for example, gloomy about its future.
:27:13. > :27:18.Libya too declaring itself free after months of NATO air strikes,
:27:18. > :27:23.emphasising the Islamist nature of the new Government. TRANSLATION:
:27:23. > :27:29.Today we are one national flesh, we have become a united brothers as we
:27:29. > :27:34.have not been in the past and we love each other.
:27:34. > :27:41.And the end met by Gaddafi and one of his sons suggested graphically
:27:41. > :27:45.that this is not a country that will defer to western ideals of
:27:45. > :27:49.justice. There is now an uneasy stand-off between militia of
:27:49. > :27:54.different regions and different tribes.
:27:54. > :28:00.In Syria too, violence increasingly is defined by the politics of
:28:01. > :28:07.identity. The majority Sunnis versus the minority Alawites who
:28:07. > :28:12.came to power. Places like Homs, with a Sunni identity, have become
:28:12. > :28:16.centres of oppression. In Bahrain, it is a Shia majority that
:28:16. > :28:21.considers itself oppressed by Sunni overLords, that seeks to use
:28:21. > :28:25.democracy to equalise things. But the result is likely to owe more to
:28:25. > :28:35.Arab culture and history, than it is to western notions of freedom
:28:35. > :28:37.
:28:37. > :28:43.and equality. The differences of etnisry, tribal
:28:44. > :28:48.or security structures make it hard to look ahead. Many Arab leaders
:28:48. > :28:53.haven't faced serious difficulties any way, one thing is clear as the
:28:53. > :28:58.year ends, but optimists who predicted a happy transition to
:28:58. > :29:02.western democracies, dispensing power with tran paorncy, with
:29:02. > :29:06.protected minority rights, were deluding themselves. It maybe only
:29:06. > :29:11.a bumpry road of a few months unrest in Tunisia, for example, but
:29:11. > :29:14.in other place, the overthrow of the old order could herald years of
:29:14. > :29:19.struggle by politics and arms, and perhaps even the break-up of some
:29:19. > :29:24.countries. I'm joined now from New York by the
:29:24. > :29:31.former UK a second, Henry Kissinger, from Cairo by the activist, Gigi
:29:31. > :29:38.Ibrahim, a familiar face on Newsnight during the Arab spring,
:29:38. > :29:41.and with me historian Simon Schama, Jeremy Greenstock and the Yemeny
:29:41. > :29:44.journalist, Tawakul Karman, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize this year.
:29:45. > :29:48.Particularly first with you Gigi, you guided us through what was
:29:48. > :29:51.going on in Egypt in the beginning, looking back to the beginning when
:29:51. > :29:54.the revolution was under way, how much did you really expect it to
:29:54. > :29:59.succeed. There must have been moments when you thought you were
:29:59. > :30:04.really up against it? I knew from day one that it is going to be a
:30:04. > :30:11.long fight. I mean, I remember even saying this on the day Mubarak
:30:11. > :30:14.stepped down, that this is a sweet victory and a moment that we will
:30:14. > :30:21.hold close in our hearts together, but the real hard work begins now,
:30:21. > :30:27.and it won't be easy or short. Any revolution takes years to settle,
:30:27. > :30:35.whether with a win or defeat. I think we are heading to a great
:30:35. > :30:38.start so far. The streets haven't been calm, and it has been
:30:38. > :30:44.increasingly intense and mobilisation and all of the
:30:44. > :30:50.governance is very much increasing. The discontent against the military
:30:50. > :30:54.rule has been increasing in the past months. I expect more of that.
:30:54. > :30:58.From where you are looking at it all, because you were watching from
:30:58. > :31:01.Yemen z it give you hope. When you were watching what was happening in
:31:02. > :31:06.Tunisia and Egypt, what were people in Yemen saying? Of course, we are
:31:06. > :31:11.so happy because the people in Egypt, they are protecting their
:31:11. > :31:15.revolution. The youth they are struggling, they are continuing
:31:15. > :31:20.their demonstrations. They want also the army to step down, because
:31:20. > :31:27.they don't want anyone to hijack their revolution. We are so
:31:27. > :31:31.optimistic and we know that the people who are deciding to go to
:31:31. > :31:37.freedom, they will not go back. That is what has happened with the
:31:37. > :31:40.tunis ian and the Egyptian. You won the Nobel Peace Prize for the work
:31:40. > :31:43.you did with women, in organising different peace groups. How
:31:43. > :31:48.important is it in the Arab Spring that the voice of women is heard
:31:48. > :31:56.and continues to be heard, that is a key thing isn't it? It is very
:31:56. > :32:00.important, it is very effective. In our countries, especially in Yemen,
:32:01. > :32:08.it is conservative, there is no women in the streets before the
:32:08. > :32:13.revolution, and when we just raise our voice, and they say, they see
:32:13. > :32:17.us in strange way, they laugh at us, but they hear us. They say, what
:32:17. > :32:20.are they doing, so we have to follow them, we have to listen to
:32:21. > :32:25.them, and they did. A key part of the empowerment of
:32:26. > :32:29.all the Arab Spring has been the role and the voice of women
:32:29. > :32:34.particularly. Did you ever think, at the beginning of the year, it
:32:34. > :32:39.would be so expensive? No, nobody did. It is a miracle, in this way,
:32:39. > :32:43.whether or not social media and television were the great
:32:43. > :32:49.liberators in the way print journalism was the great liberator
:32:49. > :32:52.in the 19th sent treatment we were still really unprepared for the
:32:52. > :32:57.possibility of disintegrating ferocious institutions and military
:32:57. > :33:02.power. I just want to say to Gigi and Tawakul Karman, it seems to me
:33:02. > :33:08.you are almost too high about your own cause. The success or defeat of
:33:08. > :33:12.the revolutions around the Muslim world, will be determined by women.
:33:12. > :33:16.You know, you have been incredibly brave so far. What I mean is, Gigi
:33:16. > :33:21.is wondering what I'm saying. I'm thinking about the difference
:33:22. > :33:24.between different Islamist groups, between Salafiists, and the Freedom
:33:24. > :33:30.and Justice Party, they have radically different views about
:33:30. > :33:34.women's place in the future of politics. So the hinge will be you.
:33:34. > :33:38.As Gigi says, there is a lot of dust still to settle until we know
:33:38. > :33:43.the outcomes and make-ups of these Governments. Henry Kissinger, I
:33:43. > :33:47.wanted to put this to you, was it a niave view or a wrong-headed view
:33:47. > :33:54.that there would be a western-style democracy. What is emerging is a
:33:54. > :34:03.different form of Government, in these countries, isn't it? In the
:34:03. > :34:07.first phase of revolution it is inevitable that you cannot make a
:34:07. > :34:14.France action to a western-style Government. It is the essence of
:34:14. > :34:22.revolution that it brings together a collection of grievances, and
:34:22. > :34:27.resentments. After that it has accomplished its destructive phase,
:34:27. > :34:29.destruction of the existing institutions, and any revolution
:34:29. > :34:37.can give itself then a positive direction. That is what is now
:34:37. > :34:47.going on in each of these countries. It could not, at this stage, lead
:34:47. > :34:48.
:34:48. > :34:51.to an immediate western democracy. So the question is, whether it is
:34:51. > :34:56.possible it will become democratic, or whether it is a form of
:34:56. > :35:00.democracy in which there is either only one election for one party
:35:00. > :35:08.that is so all encompassing that no de facto opposition is possible.
:35:08. > :35:11.That seems to me to be the challenge that emerges as the
:35:11. > :35:18.revolutions mature. Jeremy Greenstock, what was the west's
:35:18. > :35:22.role, if any, in fermenting change, was it a prescriptive role, it
:35:22. > :35:28.couldn't be because Henry Kissinger was saying we don't know what style
:35:28. > :35:31.of Governments emerge? This wasn't from the west, it was internal.
:35:31. > :35:34.This was necessary because people realised they didn't have to put up
:35:34. > :35:39.with rotten Government. What you are seeing in the Middle East is
:35:39. > :35:43.not a regional phenomenon, but a global phenomenon. Something is
:35:43. > :35:45.happening everywhere, people don't have to have their expectations
:35:45. > :35:49.crushed forever. It is bubbling up everywhere, but the Middle East was
:35:49. > :35:54.held back the most. Now just to stick with that for a moment. Are
:35:54. > :35:58.you really saying that there wasn't any western influence, the rhetoric
:35:58. > :36:02.coming out from America about the exporting of democracy. Indeed from
:36:03. > :36:06.the Government here, that played no part at all in encouragement?
:36:06. > :36:09.of course were, it was western technology that got communications
:36:09. > :36:14.going. It was western ideals of democracy have got through to other
:36:14. > :36:19.parts of the world. But the inspiration came internally. And
:36:19. > :36:22.there is another factor, which is that all our institutions are
:36:22. > :36:26.gradually fading in effectiveness, Governmental and international, and
:36:26. > :36:31.the people want to take over with something more effective. They have
:36:31. > :36:36.got a voice now it is very important. Henry Kissinger, coming
:36:36. > :36:39.back to something that Mark Urban raised in the film, I want to ask
:36:39. > :36:42.Gigi about this as well. The danger in all of this, particularly for a
:36:42. > :36:46.country like Egypt, is other minorities are crushed in the
:36:46. > :36:50.change, in the recalibration. One of the issues in Egypt is for the
:36:50. > :37:00.Coptic Christians who find themselves, they say, persecuted.
:37:00. > :37:07.There is nothing that can be done to stop that kind of persecution?
:37:07. > :37:11.Henry Kissinger first, sorry? think there are two pass aspects,
:37:11. > :37:16.the first -- aspects, what is the position of the west and our
:37:16. > :37:21.convictions on the subject. Our conviction would be that we favour
:37:21. > :37:27.a pluralistic democracy in which minorities' rights are respected,
:37:27. > :37:37.and freedom of religion is maintained. Our capacity to bring
:37:37. > :37:42.this about is shrinking, by direct action. So it depends on the
:37:42. > :37:50.relationship that we live out between the west and the emerging
:37:50. > :37:54.countries. The danger that I see is that the democratic process is in
:37:54. > :38:01.slogans, and will be used to destroy the rotten regimes. That is
:38:01. > :38:09.a great achievement. But then a sort of one-party state
:38:09. > :38:14.developing, in an Islamist basis, and I know this is often now the
:38:14. > :38:17.Islamists are congratulated when they ask other parties to join a
:38:17. > :38:22.coalition Government. But an all encompassing coalition Government
:38:22. > :38:27.means there is no opposition, no formal opposition. That is a
:38:27. > :38:31.challenge. Gigi, let me put that to you? The west can do directly it is
:38:31. > :38:35.limited. Thank you, let me put that to Gigi. First, on the question of
:38:35. > :38:39.how do you make sure that the Government embraces all minorities,
:38:39. > :38:43.and there isn't persecution, and what would be an effective
:38:43. > :38:47.opposition? The persecution is happening from counter revolution.
:38:47. > :38:53.The persecution is happening from counter revolution, that is being
:38:53. > :39:02.led by the military, the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces itself.
:39:02. > :39:06.Which is again, backed by $1.3 billion from the US and the western
:39:06. > :39:09.Governments. You are talking about the role of the west in relation to
:39:09. > :39:14.these revolutions, it has no positive impact on it whatsoever.
:39:14. > :39:20.If anything, it is backing up any revolution progress, because it is
:39:20. > :39:25.supporting the exact entity which is the Supreme Council, that are
:39:25. > :39:31.running people over in protests, and especially Christians. What
:39:31. > :39:36.happened with the massacre with the creations. Let me put it again. As
:39:36. > :39:38.Simon Schama was saying, which form of Islamism eventually appears in
:39:38. > :39:43.this country, and as Henry Kissinger said, it could take a
:39:43. > :39:46.very long time. The revolutionaries are never the ones that inherit the
:39:46. > :39:51.mantle? The revolution takes a long time. I don't think the whole
:39:51. > :39:57.countries, the greatest country in the world, that they take their
:39:57. > :40:04.freedom in one year. They make their revolution, and they gained
:40:04. > :40:09.their democracy. I want to say, don't be afraid of people. From
:40:09. > :40:16.left or right. You have to encourage everybody to be part of
:40:16. > :40:20.the political affairs, after the revolution. Don't say that
:40:20. > :40:24.Islamists people they don't have to enter to the political, to the
:40:24. > :40:30.democracy, that means that you encourage some of the people to be
:40:30. > :40:35.terrorists, to to be extremists. Also you have to separate between
:40:35. > :40:41.Islamist people, and between Al- Qaeda, Al-Qaeda. Sorry I want to
:40:41. > :40:44.finish this thing. Al-Qaeda, this Al-Qaeda, you know, peaceful
:40:44. > :40:53.revolutions around the Arab Spring, they are against it, and we shut
:40:53. > :40:58.down the voices of them. Did you hear even one attack since January
:40:58. > :41:06.until now in Tunisia or Egypt or even in Yemen? Any attack from Al-
:41:06. > :41:11.Qaeda. Please don't think that we are afraid of Islamists, even from
:41:11. > :41:14.Salafiists, we are attacked by these people. What is the best
:41:14. > :41:18.outcome from the pluralist Government? The best outcome is
:41:18. > :41:22.revolutions. It takes time. It is one that makes it a very high
:41:22. > :41:29.priority for protection of disagreements. The history of
:41:29. > :41:34.revolutions is Dr Kissinger implying, is tragic. More often
:41:34. > :41:39.than not revolutions that begin with a tremendous sense of unity,
:41:39. > :41:43.end at dictatorship. Only the revolutions in Europe which were as
:41:43. > :41:50.a result of the collapse of Soviet power, and the American revolution
:41:50. > :41:54.before that, a long time ago, took incredible pains to protect the
:41:54. > :42:00.rights of opposition and minority groups. Without that, it is, you
:42:00. > :42:04.know, a tragic destiny awaits, which none of us hope. I want to
:42:04. > :42:10.talk both to Dr Kissinger and Jeremy Greenstock about 2012. There
:42:10. > :42:13.was, of course, this great co- alllessing about something the
:42:14. > :42:18.international community could come together over Libya. Gaddafi was
:42:18. > :42:21.this hated figure. Let's talk about Syria and the on going trouble in
:42:21. > :42:24.Syria, not clearly as clear cut, and there is no international
:42:24. > :42:28.agreement about how to deal with Syria. What is your best guess
:42:28. > :42:32.about what will happen in Syria in the months to come? That the
:42:32. > :42:35.opposition won't have the catalytic force to get rid of the regime in
:42:35. > :42:41.dam mass cushion because they are learning how to repress, from what
:42:41. > :42:45.they have seen over the last year or so. Impress with inpunity?
:42:45. > :42:50.are learning from Iran, they know if they double up oppression it is
:42:50. > :42:53.hard to get rid of the regime. If there isn't a catalytic regime to
:42:53. > :43:00.take that out. You are likely to go into civil war. Do you think it
:43:00. > :43:07.will end up as civil war in Syria? Yes, I think it will end up with
:43:07. > :43:15.the collapse of the Assad regime. Because the pressures will become
:43:15. > :43:20.too great. The situation either like Libya, but it could pass
:43:20. > :43:25.through several countries. One country we haven't talked about
:43:25. > :43:29.in a sense, at the beginning of all of this latest movement, is Iran. A
:43:29. > :43:33.failed revolution, despite the best efforts of social media and
:43:33. > :43:40.interventions and so forth. Will it be the economy that will do for
:43:40. > :43:45.Ahmadinejad in Iran do you think? don't know, can you go on actually
:43:45. > :43:49.as the most bitter years of the Chinese revolution proved, in a
:43:49. > :43:53.state of near catastrophic economic collapse, and the dictatorship will
:43:53. > :43:58.still not be removed. I did want to say that as the economic situation
:43:58. > :44:03.worsens, as it is likely to, the shake-down we have not talked about,
:44:03. > :44:12.between rural and urban, between provinces and the capital cities,
:44:12. > :44:17.seems to me likely to play a part. The revolutions are revolutions of
:44:17. > :44:23.urban centres sometimes of capital cities. Assad is lucky that most of
:44:23. > :44:29.the fury is concentrated in Homs, where he has a subjective Damascus.
:44:29. > :44:33.These things are complicated scenarios, which is difficult to
:44:33. > :44:37.see when you simply have the story of people fighting for liberty and
:44:37. > :44:42.counter revolution. They will tell next year. Briefly on Yemen, this
:44:42. > :44:45.coming year, what do you think, Safa is still there, but not in
:44:45. > :44:51.power at the moment. What is the best estimate of what might happen
:44:51. > :44:58.in Yemen this year? People will succeed, and we now, we are calling
:44:58. > :45:06.the international community to take their duty, to make their rules, to
:45:06. > :45:13.freeze assets and also to take him to the ICC. This is the demands of
:45:13. > :45:17.all people around the world. Around the Arab Spring. When they struggle
:45:17. > :45:22.for their freedom, it is accountability. It is not affair
:45:22. > :45:27.that the regime to be out of the accountability. I think Welwyn. But
:45:27. > :45:31.we want to win with international community, we don't want to win
:45:31. > :45:41.alone, people will succeed. Thank you all very much indeed. Tomorrow
:45:41. > :45:59.
:45:59. > :46:03.you all very much indeed. Tomorrow That's all from Newsnight. Emily is
:46:04. > :46:13.here tomorrow for a review of the political dramas of 201, from all
:46:14. > :46:33.
:46:33. > :46:38.of us here, a very -- 2011, from all of us here, a very good night.
:46:38. > :46:42.Hello, some of us will wake up to our first snowfall of the winter.
:46:42. > :46:47.We have an amber warning in force, with parts of Wales, central and
:46:47. > :46:53.southern England as well. Much of it is rain. As we go through the
:46:53. > :46:57.night it will turn to snow across Wales and the Midlands. Don't be
:46:57. > :47:01.surprised if you wake up to snow, even in the London area, the rain
:47:01. > :47:05.will have a tendency to turn to snow for a time in the morning.
:47:05. > :47:08.Hopefully in London south it won't cause problems, around the
:47:08. > :47:13.outskirts it might do. Across the south west of England, wintry
:47:13. > :47:19.showers, a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, in the moors a chilly
:47:19. > :47:24.breeze, the case for Wales and more meaningful snow showers evolving.
:47:24. > :47:27.An icey and slippery start in Northern Ireland. Wintry showers
:47:27. > :47:31.around. Similar story for Scotland as well. Slippery out there. It
:47:31. > :47:35.will be another cold day nationwide. As we go through the morning,
:47:35. > :47:38.notice now the wintry weather, the sleet and snow progresses down
:47:38. > :47:42.towards the south-east. Before eventually the worst of it does
:47:42. > :47:46.tend to fade away. For the rest of the country, a mixture of sunshine
:47:46. > :47:49.and wintry showers, as I mentioned, with parts of Wales having
:47:49. > :47:54.significant snowfall, I think, through the afternoon. It stays