:00:07. > :00:12.Tonight, grim news from the UK's biggest retailer, if shopping slows
:00:12. > :00:17.down, does the UK economy have anything else to take its place?
:00:17. > :00:22.If this is struggling, can we get more of this? Voices from the world
:00:22. > :00:25.of business and economics are here to tell us.
:00:25. > :00:29.The benefits trap, a dramatic defeat in the Lords last night, a
:00:29. > :00:34.legal challenge today. Is the Government's big plan to slash the
:00:34. > :00:36.welfare bill in tatters. The Employment Minister will face a
:00:36. > :00:39.disability campaigner here in the studio.
:00:39. > :00:42.Britain's spy agencies will face a criminal investigation into
:00:42. > :00:46.allegations they were complicit in the rendition and torture of
:00:46. > :00:51.Libyans and their families. The intelligence people have been
:00:51. > :00:55.caught by the tides events, the fall of the Gaddafi regime has
:00:55. > :01:01.produced documents, testimony and hard questions for the UK to answer.
:01:01. > :01:07.As the west's economy continues to falter, we look at Japan's called -
:01:07. > :01:14.- called decade, were they really lost, or can the Japanese really
:01:14. > :01:21.teach us how to handle a slump. Good evening. The dark Satanic
:01:21. > :01:25.mills have long shut down, the mines have closed and the steel
:01:25. > :01:29.franc dk factories of Sheffield are now retail parks. We Brits don't
:01:29. > :01:34.know how to make things any more, but at least we know how to shop.
:01:34. > :01:38.Buted today's round retail figures suggest even that is no longer fail
:01:38. > :01:46.safe. Many big high street chains have seen the worst figures for
:01:46. > :01:50.years. Tesco, which has bucked every downturn trend, their shares
:01:50. > :01:55.dropped 15%, nearly a billion was wiped off the stock market value.
:01:55. > :01:58.When Tesco is pale, all bets are out. With exports also down, we ask
:01:58. > :02:02.where the Superman cloak of economic salvation will have to
:02:02. > :02:09.come from. For decades now, this has been the
:02:09. > :02:14.new Jerusalem. On the outskirts are man chest, the taffrord centre is
:02:14. > :02:17.no dark Satanic mill, but a glitzy architecture showing its place at
:02:17. > :02:20.the heart of the economic life. In future there will be no heavy
:02:20. > :02:28.industry, but there would be financial service, new flats, and
:02:28. > :02:30.above all, shopping. For centuries our most magnificent
:02:31. > :02:34.buildings were religious, now these are the cathedrals. This is where
:02:34. > :02:39.we worship. But now, there is a growing bod hey of opinion among
:02:39. > :02:43.economists -- body of opinion, but among economists there is a growing
:02:43. > :02:48.opinion that reliance on retailing is tooer far, we have to break our
:02:48. > :02:51.dependance on it if we are to have a sustainable recovery. While the
:02:51. > :02:56.boom lasted the wisdom was if manufacturing and exports shrank,
:02:56. > :03:00.it didn't matter, as long as rising house prices kept the consumer
:03:00. > :03:02.confident and spending, the economy would grow. Today came a shock,
:03:02. > :03:06.that hadn't happened even in the great recession of three years ago.
:03:06. > :03:10.After two decades of rapid growth, Tesco shares plunged after it
:03:10. > :03:16.announced that on a fair comparison of last year, sales over Christmas
:03:16. > :03:19.fell, and profits would be squeezed. The shares ended the day down 16%.
:03:19. > :03:24.We always felt the most important thing to do was makep shopping
:03:24. > :03:28.better for our customers -- make shopping better for our customers
:03:28. > :03:34.the we made a big of move on prices in the run up to Christmas,
:03:34. > :03:38.starting to be rewarded with increased volumes, and noise around
:03:38. > :03:44.Christmas, the message didn't cut through. Economists say less retail
:03:44. > :03:51.spending is what we if we want to rebalance our lob sided economy
:03:51. > :03:54.away from retail. Retail has limits, incomes lag behind inflation in a
:03:54. > :03:58.recession, consumer spending reaches its maximum. If you want
:03:58. > :04:02.economic growth you can't rely on jobs in retail, you have to have
:04:02. > :04:06.jobs in manufacturing, consumer goods, the higher value items.
:04:06. > :04:12.Here is where the money used to flow into our economy, down the
:04:12. > :04:17.Manchester ship canal. In would come see -- sea-going ships, with
:04:17. > :04:21.raw cotton and sugar, out would go manufacturing goods of all kinds.
:04:21. > :04:25.The scale of this canal shows just how confident we once were that the
:04:25. > :04:28.rest of the world would want to buy our exported goods. Since the 1970s
:04:28. > :04:31.when the ships stopped coming and going, we have had a different idea
:04:31. > :04:35.of what a modern economy is. One based on retail developments and
:04:35. > :04:39.construction. Now it looks like that idea has run its course, and
:04:39. > :04:43.we will have to find another idea of what our economic direction is.
:04:43. > :04:47.The hope is, that growth will now come from of manufacturing and
:04:47. > :04:51.exports, but is it really any more than a hope. In September UK
:04:51. > :04:54.industrial output fell by 0.7%, compared to the same month a year
:04:54. > :04:58.before. Between August and September, production overall
:04:58. > :05:03.remained flat. This is exactly the sort of company
:05:03. > :05:06.that is supposed to benefit from this great economic rebalancing. A
:05:06. > :05:10.successful manufacturer, that earns money through exports.
:05:10. > :05:14.This is a wheel set that is virtually finished, it has been
:05:14. > :05:21.through a number of stages to get here. When I'm up and down the
:05:21. > :05:25.country on a train, that is what I'm riding on? Absolutely. Let's
:05:25. > :05:28.say that each carriage you would be in would have four of those
:05:28. > :05:33.underneath. The factory has been here for more than 100 years. There
:05:33. > :05:39.there is nothing old fashioned about its machinery, it may no
:05:39. > :05:45.longer be British owned, but last year at full tilt sold 40,000 train
:05:46. > :05:51.wheels. That export boom is flagging now The trade deficit is
:05:51. > :05:55.growing. In spite of the weak pound, it it is not easy to compete on
:05:55. > :06:00.price. If we were only supplying single components like the wheels
:06:00. > :06:04.on their own, we would have a difficulty in competing against
:06:04. > :06:12.imported, Chinese, or wheels from any low-cost country. However, what
:06:12. > :06:15.we do, is that weed add value. We have n this country and company, we
:06:15. > :06:19.have a culture, --, in this country and company, we have a culture
:06:19. > :06:21.based on quality and service. manufacturers believe if the
:06:22. > :06:24.Government wants more businesses like this, it will take proper
:06:25. > :06:28.commitment, including Government money. We can invest in the
:06:28. > :06:34.technology, we can bring the people, we can find the people with the
:06:34. > :06:39.right attitude, but then, I think, we need help to get us over that
:06:39. > :06:44.next step. We have taken that step, and we have invested ourselves, and
:06:44. > :06:48.we have had some funding, some support on funding. But there is a
:06:48. > :06:51.big, big danger that is now disappearing.
:06:51. > :06:55.Counting on property, financial services and shopping, may have
:06:55. > :06:59.seemed like our economic future 20 years ago. But nothing dates like a
:06:59. > :07:03.vision of the future. And the hope that exports will drive a recovery
:07:03. > :07:08.right now looks like little more than a hope. We may know that we
:07:08. > :07:13.want to rebalance our economy, what we are yet to work out is how.
:07:13. > :07:20.Let's start there, how can the economy be rebalanced. I'm joined
:07:20. > :07:24.by the businesswoman and Dragon's Den Deborah Meaden, and Elizabeth
:07:24. > :07:29.Truss a Conservative, and Gillian Tett from the Financial Times.
:07:29. > :07:33.Thank you very much for coming in. Should we be worrying, first of all,
:07:33. > :07:40.Deborah Meaden, that the retail base seems to be slowing down, is
:07:40. > :07:47.thated good news, or is it just bad news? I think certainly basing the
:07:47. > :07:50.entire notion that it is slowing down on the Tesco's' results a
:07:50. > :07:56.slight overreaction. Tesco's may have issues and it probably does in
:07:56. > :07:59.itself, however, within Tesco's. won't be the first or the last of
:07:59. > :08:03.the Christmas season we have seen? When you look at the retail sector,
:08:03. > :08:06.without a doubt, people are feeling nervous, if they have money they
:08:06. > :08:15.are finding it difficult to spend it. They don't want to spend it,
:08:15. > :08:20.they are feeling nervous. It is, really, if shopping is slowing down,
:08:20. > :08:24.and George Osborne said it would be an export-led recovery, 18 months
:08:24. > :08:29.on we are in a pretty dire place? think the issue is, these policies
:08:29. > :08:32.take a while to take effect. We're talking about welfare reform,
:08:32. > :08:36.education reform. I think one of the big issues we have as a country,
:08:36. > :08:40.and why we're not as competitive as we should be, is our skills base is
:08:40. > :08:43.not as good as Germany, it is not even as good as the US. We're
:08:43. > :08:48.struggling to compete against countries like India and China,
:08:48. > :08:54.that are turning out thousands of technicians and mathematitions.
:08:54. > :08:57.We're 28th in the world for Maths. Those things take a while to
:08:57. > :09:01.address, we are getting the free schools in place and the academys
:09:01. > :09:05.in place, they don't happen overnight. Would you say we have
:09:05. > :09:08.got the balance wrong, in the way the stress and balances are put on?
:09:09. > :09:12.We spent too much money we didn't have, both consumers and Government,
:09:12. > :09:15.spent money we didn't have, we consumed more than we should have
:09:15. > :09:19.done. Given the amount of money we were earning. We weren't paying our
:09:19. > :09:24.way in the world. I'm afraid this is the period of reconciliation of
:09:24. > :09:27.that. We have to start paying that money back. We need to become more
:09:27. > :09:31.competitive, and more productive as a country. Because it is simply not
:09:31. > :09:34.right that people in other countries, who may be earning lower
:09:34. > :09:38.wages, have higher skills than us. That can't go on in the long-term.
:09:38. > :09:42.We have to rebalance that. And this is not just one Government, this is
:09:42. > :09:46.not just a Conservative Government, this is a succession of bad
:09:46. > :09:50.Government decisions, isn't it? think so. Just coming back to the
:09:50. > :09:55.retail issue, the news from today. I'm just not sure why anyone is
:09:55. > :10:02.surprised. In fact, what Government should be doing, is counter acting
:10:02. > :10:07.what private investment does. We know that private investment is
:10:07. > :10:10.pro-cyclical, too much during booms and too little in bust. The
:10:10. > :10:13.Government has copied that, too much credit and too much tax and
:10:13. > :10:21.interest reductions during the booms, now during the bust,
:10:21. > :10:24.increase in VAT, freeze in public sector wages. So what is lagging
:10:24. > :10:28.not inspiring? It it is right we shouldn't have spent too much in
:10:28. > :10:32.the boom, but now we are in a position of massive debt. The issue
:10:32. > :10:37.is, if we don't reduce the debt the credit rating will be affected and
:10:37. > :10:39.interest rates will go up, that will affect mortgage holders and
:10:39. > :10:43.the country's long-term viability. We have got to have a careful
:10:43. > :10:46.balance between those things. I think George Osborne's got it right.
:10:46. > :10:50.What wr doing is we are moving money from things -- what we are
:10:50. > :10:52.doing is moving things like money from welfare spending into
:10:52. > :10:56.infrastructure spending. That is a positive way to see growth, first
:10:56. > :10:59.in the short-term and certainly in the long-term. Infrastructure is
:10:59. > :11:04.another area where Britain is not competitive. It is still peanuts
:11:04. > :11:10.what we are seeing now. Is there a solution staring you in the face,
:11:10. > :11:15.in terms of the way that we should be redressing that imbalance?
:11:15. > :11:18.reality is, it is a terrible time to produce exports, because the
:11:18. > :11:21.global economy is not exactly booming. The kind of conversation
:11:21. > :11:24.we are having here is not different from the conversation you might
:11:24. > :11:27.have in America at the moment. Certainly, we have just gone
:11:27. > :11:32.through a decade where people are far too dazzled by financial
:11:32. > :11:35.services and consumption, and all the froth, and there really wasn't
:11:35. > :11:39.enough diversification. Similar to the conversations they are having
:11:39. > :11:42.in Germany? It certainly is. Where they have managed to keep their
:11:42. > :11:47.manufacturing base very strong, even exporting to China, how did
:11:47. > :11:51.they pull that off? Unfortunately the UK has underemphasised the type
:11:51. > :11:55.of skills you need to support a manufacturing base, and as I say,
:11:55. > :11:58.has been far too dazzled by all the consumption-driven economies.
:11:58. > :12:02.issue is, there is at short-term issue and the long-term issue,
:12:02. > :12:06.actually we live in a short-term society, we are all looking for
:12:06. > :12:12.quite quick results. The truth of the matter is the answer to this is
:12:12. > :12:14.very long-term. We need a long-term plan. And my worry is that the
:12:14. > :12:18.Government is forced to, because society is looking for the answer
:12:18. > :12:23.now, the Government is forced to coming up with answers now that
:12:23. > :12:28.don't change long-term. Can I remind viewers, Deborah was talking
:12:29. > :12:32.about the long-term, if you take us back to the 1970s, you can see that
:12:32. > :12:35.cut, that split between the service industry, the service and
:12:35. > :12:40.manufacturing industry is roughly half, and then to where we are now,
:12:40. > :12:44.when you can see how much the manufacturing has been eaten away.
:12:44. > :12:48.Was that somewhere along the line a deliberate decision, wasn't it?
:12:48. > :12:53.think it was a decision. We decided to become a service-led country. I
:12:53. > :12:56.think it was the wrong decision. I think that balance is always the
:12:56. > :12:59.answer. And there is always the tipping point, if we were totally
:12:59. > :13:03.of manufacturing it would be a problem, too little manufacturing
:13:03. > :13:11.it is a problem. That is where we are now. It is very easy to row
:13:11. > :13:14.Manchester United size the days when manufacturing was -
:13:14. > :13:19.romanticise the days when manufacturing was strong and qalty.
:13:19. > :13:23.It is not just the size of manufacturing but the quality
:13:23. > :13:30.produced. When Seimens won the contract some months ago, and it is
:13:30. > :13:34.how are we giving the national contract to a international firm,
:13:34. > :13:41.why is a surprise that giving it to one of the greenest companies in
:13:41. > :13:45.Europe, spending 6% of its money on GDP, was it surprising they
:13:45. > :13:49.produced the company that is going to produce the high-speed green,
:13:49. > :13:52.fast modern trains in the UK. Alongside the question about the
:13:52. > :13:55.quality of manufacturing skills, there is the question of what kind
:13:55. > :14:03.of jobs you are creating in the service sector. Certainly, it does
:14:03. > :14:06.appear the service sector is marked by the elite doing the sexy stuff,
:14:06. > :14:10.the brain-power stuff. You have the mass of workers not doing very
:14:10. > :14:14.exciting jobs in the service sector at all. That lead into issues about
:14:14. > :14:18.economic polarisation, and labour market polarisation, that are
:14:18. > :14:21.incredibly serious for the Anglo- Saxon economies today. We have an
:14:21. > :14:25.hourglass economy, the jobs at the top are increasing, the technical
:14:25. > :14:31.and professional jobs, the service jobs are increatesing. Those jobs
:14:31. > :14:33.in the middle, -- increasing. The jobs in the middle, the plumbers
:14:33. > :14:37.and electrician, they are decreasing in number. We have to
:14:37. > :14:42.get the skills up. You asked a question about Germany, what
:14:42. > :14:45.Germany did, in 200, when they had issues -- 2000, when they had
:14:45. > :14:49.issues with the education system, they doubled the length of the
:14:49. > :14:52.school day. They upped the level academic suggests in schools. They
:14:52. > :14:57.did something about it. My fear for the country is we have serious
:14:57. > :15:00.problems with the skills base. are too short-termist in the
:15:00. > :15:05.political decisions? I don't think we realise how serious the issue is
:15:05. > :15:10.with our education system. Michael Gove gets that, but do we as a
:15:10. > :15:13.country understand how vital it is for everybody to get a basic level
:15:13. > :15:17.ofed good education. Deborah, when we are talking about
:15:17. > :15:20.education now, we are basically recognising that this is, what 20
:15:20. > :15:24.years away, if this is the beginning of a cycle, we are not
:15:24. > :15:29.going to address the economy, if it needs a new skills base, a new
:15:29. > :15:33.education, a new re-think, that's what long-term means, isn't it?
:15:33. > :15:37.There are two parts to this. So it would be wrong to sit here and say
:15:37. > :15:41.the only answer is long-term, now we have to tackle our future. We
:15:41. > :15:44.need to look forward and say what do we want to be, and how do we
:15:44. > :15:49.need to prepare our young people to take us there. That's the long-term
:15:49. > :15:54.plan. We can't, therefore, say that's it. What do you d'oh we want
:15:54. > :15:57.to be, do you think? We have -- what do we want to be? We have to
:15:57. > :16:01.recognise we have to be better in the next five years. Everybody
:16:01. > :16:07.wants to be the next Steve Jobs? That is quite a good example.
:16:07. > :16:10.Britain has to rediscover its entreprenurial spirit. One of the
:16:10. > :16:14.most inspiring stories I have heard recently, was a mother and daughter
:16:14. > :16:18.in Cambridge, couldn't pay the school fees, went out and created a
:16:18. > :16:21.company, the Sachle company, they start not only of manufacturing
:16:22. > :16:26.them in England and selling across the world, they are about to hit
:16:26. > :16:31.New York. That is the example we need to build on. I'm glad we
:16:31. > :16:36.brought up Steve Jobs, he was a genius, but every little bit of the
:16:36. > :16:40.iPhone and I pad trace their funding, their development d iPad,
:16:40. > :16:43.trace their funding, their development and the vision back to
:16:43. > :16:48.state investment. The Internet, the communication technology, the touch
:16:48. > :16:53.screen was all state funded in the United States of America. We can't
:16:53. > :16:56.afford that any more. Why not, we do quanative easing? We do have
:16:56. > :16:59.great research and development in this country, it is one of
:16:59. > :17:02.Britain's comparative advantages, what we need to get is the rest of
:17:02. > :17:05.the education system up to standard, so it is absorbed better into the
:17:05. > :17:09.economy. But I just want to say one positive thing had, I do think
:17:09. > :17:12.there are a lot of niche opportunities at the moment and
:17:12. > :17:18.there are some agricultural engineers in my constituency who
:17:18. > :17:28.have seen their order books rise, because eastern Europeans are now
:17:28. > :17:44.
:17:44. > :17:50.Mick cannising their farming. There are opportunities out there. Where
:17:50. > :17:53.would you focus the state funding? The green area, this is where the
:17:53. > :17:58.different types of expertise in the country that could be applied to.
:17:58. > :18:01.The UK spends more on furniture than on green. George Osborne has
:18:01. > :18:05.pretty must said, the green issues must come second to growth in the
:18:05. > :18:08.economy now? I don't think he has said that. What we have done is the
:18:09. > :18:11.Government has protect research spending, and said it is very
:18:11. > :18:16.important that we maintain our premier position in the world,
:18:16. > :18:19.which we do have in research. And those opportunities are being
:18:19. > :18:23.developed by our universities. I think it is right that academics
:18:23. > :18:28.come up with the ideas that we choose the best people, and we
:18:28. > :18:31.allow them to think innovatively. Turin came up with the idea of the
:18:31. > :18:35.computer, he didn't know how it would be going out in the world. It
:18:35. > :18:39.it was because he had that academic freedom to pursue that, that he was
:18:39. > :18:42.able to come up with those new ideas. What I do worry about is
:18:42. > :18:47.following the latest fashion, or the latest trend about where we
:18:47. > :18:52.might think the idea is coming from. I think we should actually be more
:18:52. > :18:56.open than that. I want to bring this back to you Deborah, as a
:18:56. > :19:02.hand-on businesswoman. You said that Tesco had made mistakes. If
:19:02. > :19:06.you are looking to actually put your finger on what went wrong with
:19:06. > :19:10.Britain's biggest retailer? They know, the one thing I would never,
:19:10. > :19:14.ever do in business, is set my business, set my store out on price
:19:14. > :19:18.and price alone. I think Tesco's did that. It is aled golden rule
:19:18. > :19:22.for me. We will never fight on price. We will fight on good value,
:19:22. > :19:25.on quality, I will never, ever fight on price. That is what
:19:25. > :19:30.Tesco's did. I think Tesco's know they have got it wrong. Do you
:19:30. > :19:36.think there will be a big shake-up, the papers are saying they have of
:19:36. > :19:40.to have a re-think? The other supermarkets didn't enter the
:19:40. > :19:42.battle, they set their stall out. The end of the Tesco empire?
:19:43. > :19:49.because they are smart enough to recognise it T they have already
:19:49. > :19:53.recogniseded it, they will change -- -- it, they have already
:19:54. > :20:01.recognised it, they will change it. If Britain is to face years of flat
:20:01. > :20:04.growth, what can we learn from Japan, who have suffered two
:20:04. > :20:10.decades of loss. With changes to the welfare system
:20:11. > :20:13.and plans to cuts and payments to young people, the accusations from
:20:13. > :20:17.Labour come, ministers say they will press ahead with reform,
:20:17. > :20:20.despite a legal challenge today and defeat in the Lords. Chris Grayling
:20:20. > :20:24.said tough decisions had to be taken to tackle the deficit. Is he
:20:24. > :20:27.right? In a moment we will hear from him and a disability
:20:27. > :20:34.campaigner. Let's start where the Government
:20:34. > :20:41.has, with the soaring cost of working-age benefits, up 40% in
:20:41. > :20:45.real terms since 1997. They are fiendishly complex, the rulebook
:20:45. > :20:52.for the DWP runs to nearly 9,000 pages. This is only part of the
:20:52. > :20:55.picture. Local authorities and HMRC also administer an overlapping and
:20:55. > :20:59.confusing system. All collecting similar data and dealing with many
:20:59. > :21:04.of the same people. Not surprisingly error and fraud costs
:21:04. > :21:08.an estimated �5.2 billion a year. At the end of all this, one quarter
:21:08. > :21:14.of working-aged a dults are not in work.
:21:14. > :21:19.-- working aged a dults are not in work. The incentives for taking a
:21:19. > :21:24.job are overwhelming people. From 600,000 people, for every pound
:21:24. > :21:28.they would earn 90% would be lost in tax or withdrawn benefits. The
:21:28. > :21:32.first law of welfare spending is unreformed, it will rise and rise.
:21:32. > :21:35.If you look, when I looked at it, I found most of the growth was
:21:36. > :21:38.increasing numbers of people getting on to benefit. They may get
:21:39. > :21:43.on to benefit temporarily through a recession or something, and then
:21:43. > :21:46.they find they can live there, on it, and they don't come off. The
:21:46. > :21:51.system didn't encourage them to come off and help them to come off.
:21:51. > :21:56.The longer they remained on, the more demoraliseded, the less
:21:56. > :22:01.employable they became, they became lifetime recipients of benefit.
:22:01. > :22:05.Government's plan is wholesale reform. Out will go income support,
:22:05. > :22:08.income-based jobseeker's allowance, income-relateded employment and
:22:08. > :22:13.support allowance, housing benefit, Child Tax Credit and Working Tax
:22:13. > :22:17.Credit. All to be replaceded by one Universal Credit. That, will be --
:22:17. > :22:19.replaced by one Universal Credit. That will be capped at �26,000 a
:22:19. > :22:22.year, maximum. The Government is having difficulty
:22:22. > :22:27.over changes that will come in before the Universal Credit arrives.
:22:27. > :22:30.At present, if you have made the right NI contribution, you can get
:22:30. > :22:34.employment support allowance for as long as you are out of work. The
:22:34. > :22:38.Government wants to cap it at a year. Last night, ministers were
:22:38. > :22:42.defeated on this in the Lords. is a pretty big rebellion last
:22:42. > :22:46.night, know it is mainly crossbenchers, an awful lot of
:22:46. > :22:50.Liberal Democrats be a taind. I think we have -- abstained, we have
:22:50. > :22:53.to try to convince our party. I don't expect to be able to convince
:22:53. > :22:58.the Conservatives, that we don't want to be a nasy party. We want to
:22:58. > :23:01.protect d nasty party. We want to protect the poor and disadvantaged
:23:01. > :23:05.and the sick. I know it is trite saying that, that is a basic
:23:06. > :23:09.principle we have had in our party. The Government was defeated three
:23:09. > :23:14.times in the Lords. A Labour amendment raised the one-year cap
:23:14. > :23:19.to two years. Last night they tried to cross a basic line of public
:23:20. > :23:25.decency for cutting back on benefits for patients suffering
:23:25. > :23:28.cancer and young people suffering disabilities. We were right to say
:23:28. > :23:31.to Chris Grayling these ideas were wrong and take them off the table
:23:31. > :23:38.and bring something better back. The Government is trying to get its
:23:38. > :23:40.message across, that this change would not affect the sickest
:23:40. > :23:44.recipients benefits, and only affect those with significant
:23:45. > :23:48.savings or other income. This is introduced because of the economic
:23:48. > :23:52.climate, nobody wants these sorts of changes. But the Labour
:23:52. > :23:55.proposelals would cost �1.6 billion, that money would have to come from
:23:55. > :23:59.somewhere else in the benefits budget. That means finding other
:23:59. > :24:02.people to take money away from. And they haven't made any suggestions
:24:02. > :24:06.where that money would come from. I think that would be extremely
:24:06. > :24:12.difficult choice to make. Generations of politicians have had
:24:12. > :24:17.to grapple with, essentially, the same problem. The Social Security
:24:17. > :24:21.Secretary patrols a �75 billion system, groaning with complexity
:24:21. > :24:27.and contradiction. Peter Lilly knows what it is like to patrol
:24:27. > :24:34.welfare, but he says it should be a vote-winner? When I wandered
:24:34. > :24:38.through the less sal lubous places in the country, they would say,
:24:38. > :24:44.you're that man, keep it up. But in the posh Hampstead, they would say
:24:44. > :24:48.I was cruel and unthinking, I had the mass of people on my side. It
:24:48. > :24:54.was the only area where our popularity increased in the period
:24:54. > :25:02.192 to 1997. But perhaps the biggest problem with welfare reform
:25:02. > :25:08.is rather well exsemplified by this, frankly, baffling Government advert
:25:08. > :25:13.for tax credits in 1999. The system is so complex, hardly anyone
:25:13. > :25:19.understands what is going on. Joining me now is the Employment
:25:19. > :25:23.Minister, Chris Grayling, and disability campaigner, Sue Marsh.
:25:23. > :25:26.Liam Byrne accused you of crossing the line of decency, is it more
:25:26. > :25:31.important for you to save money, even if you face that kind of
:25:31. > :25:34.accusation? I think he's just plain wrong. In the Labour Party last
:25:34. > :25:39.week, Liam Byrne was talking about the need to take tough decisions on
:25:39. > :25:42.welfare, and he's doing the opposite. We are not taking away
:25:42. > :25:45.benefits from people who have no other income. We are not taking
:25:45. > :25:48.away benefit who is are not going to be able to work again. We are
:25:48. > :25:51.making changes for people who have got another income, or who have
:25:51. > :25:54.thousands of pounds of savings in the bank. That's the principle of
:25:54. > :25:59.what we are doing. That was presumably understood pretty well
:25:59. > :26:02.by those in the Lords. Lord Patel saying he's sympathetic to cutting
:26:02. > :26:06.the deficit, but highly sympathetic to something that will make the
:26:06. > :26:09.lives of weak and vulnerable people even more miserable. This is why it
:26:09. > :26:13.is being shout down now? If you take the example of one of the
:26:13. > :26:16.amendments last night, on young people. What we have is a situation
:26:16. > :26:21.right now, where if a young person reaches adult life, and they have
:26:21. > :26:24.other financial means, they could receive for example a substantial
:26:24. > :26:27.inheritance, they are still able to unconditionally receive benefit
:26:28. > :26:31.support for an on going period. If they are never going to be able to
:26:31. > :26:35.work, the situation won't change for them. If they are in a position
:26:35. > :26:37.where with the right help and through or work programme, we have
:26:37. > :26:41.put in place specialist support to help people who have the potential
:26:41. > :26:44.to return to work to do so, I don't think it is right that somebody who
:26:44. > :26:49.has other financial means, should depend on tax-payers who are on
:26:49. > :26:53.reallyively low incomes themselves, very often, to pay the money to
:26:53. > :26:59.help people who also have money themselves. What is is wrong with
:26:59. > :27:04.that? What the amendment was about, we felt, was children who were born
:27:04. > :27:08.profoundly disabled, who might not be able to work when they get older,
:27:08. > :27:12.should have an entitlement in adulthood for an independent income.
:27:12. > :27:18.They shouldn't have to rely oned adults or family to look after them.
:27:18. > :27:25.If you are born that profoundly disabled you should have a right to
:27:25. > :27:29.that money. You will be allowed a benefit with more unconditional
:27:29. > :27:36.support than other Governments. Those people won't be in a
:27:36. > :27:39.different position, it will remain unchanged. It is so easy to
:27:39. > :27:43.demonise the Government in an emotive issue, they are saying the
:27:43. > :27:45.support group will not change the benefits structure, this is only
:27:45. > :27:49.about people who presumably you would want to see getting back to
:27:50. > :27:53.work? Firstly, we don't think enough people are going into the
:27:53. > :27:55.support group. That is one of the big flaws, we don't believe enough
:27:56. > :27:59.people with long-term conditions are getting that long-term support.
:27:59. > :28:04.That is not about an amendment to the reform? The amendments
:28:04. > :28:09.yesterday, we were sitting watching the debate, one of the debates was
:28:09. > :28:13.about how terminally ill do you have to be to apply for benefits.
:28:13. > :28:15.Six months you would get unconditional support, if you were
:28:15. > :28:20.terminally ill for three or four years you wouldn't get the support.
:28:20. > :28:24.I find it shocking that I'm living in a country where I sit there and
:28:24. > :28:29.hear ministers and Lords arguing over how terminally ill you have to
:28:29. > :28:32.be to get benefits If you didn't have the problems you have, would
:28:32. > :28:36.you still want this reform? would want to change the welfare
:28:37. > :28:40.state and make it back to the core objective, helping people back to
:28:40. > :28:43.work and disabled people into work. The point about the support group,
:28:43. > :28:47.the long-term group that receive unconditional support from the
:28:47. > :28:51.state, we have grown that in the past year. Bigger than we took
:28:51. > :28:55.office. We have introduced changes consciously intended to provide
:28:55. > :28:59.better support for people with long-term mental health problems.
:28:59. > :29:02.We are having to take difficult decisions because of the deficit,
:29:02. > :29:06.across a whole range of different areas. There are things we are
:29:06. > :29:10.having to do we would rather not, we are certainly trying to get the
:29:10. > :29:14.balance right. It would be very easy, wouldn't it, to say, once
:29:14. > :29:18.somebody has been classified as disabled, or a chronic sufferer,
:29:18. > :29:22.they need never be assessed again, that might not help the state or
:29:22. > :29:24.individual? That isn't what the debate was about yesterday. We
:29:24. > :29:28.weren't talking about the assessments. One of the other votes
:29:28. > :29:33.that failed, was for a one-year time limit on employment support
:29:33. > :29:37.allowance, not people in the unconditional group, but the people
:29:37. > :29:41.judge unwell, unfit to work, but could get back to work with the
:29:42. > :29:46.right support. When ESA was originally designed, they thought
:29:46. > :29:52.it would take 2-5 years for those people, with the right support, to
:29:52. > :29:57.get back into work. Introducing a one-year time limit, means someone
:29:57. > :30:02.like me, very ill for 7 years, when I go into that support group, I
:30:02. > :30:05.will be entirely dependant on my husband to survive. There are
:30:05. > :30:14.people on benefit, who don't want to live on it, they want to get
:30:14. > :30:17.back to work? No problem with that. The people happy with that. Do you
:30:17. > :30:21.think that is right to have no means assessment? Nobody has called
:30:21. > :30:25.for that. We need a fair assessment, looking at people's condition
:30:25. > :30:30.individually. I don't think we can have a tick box system, of 15
:30:30. > :30:35.questions, where you sit in front of somebody, and they say you have
:30:35. > :30:39.to fit the rigid scale. We have seen a lot of u-turns on your
:30:39. > :30:43.Government, successive Governments have tried and failed on the
:30:43. > :30:47.benefits system. You have legal challenges with the unemployment
:30:47. > :30:50.benefits cuts and the defeat in the Lords, are you wondering why people
:30:50. > :30:55.can't do it? This is transformation of the welfare state that is
:30:55. > :30:58.necessary. In many of our communities we have long-term,
:30:58. > :31:01.endemic worklessness, gone from generation to generation. We have a
:31:01. > :31:04.low level of people with disabilities in work. What we have
:31:04. > :31:07.done through the revolutionary work programme, a payments by results
:31:07. > :31:11.basis. We have organisations that are delivering personalised support
:31:12. > :31:19.to get people into work, from long- term benefit dependency, they have
:31:19. > :31:22.the freedom to do what -- freedom to do what works. You sound very
:31:22. > :31:26.certain you will pull this off. We have heard David Cameron hint that
:31:26. > :31:31.child benefit might be relooked at. His words were, we had always said
:31:31. > :31:38.we would look at the steepness of the curve, look at the way it is
:31:38. > :31:42.implemented, you introduced this at the Tory Conference before last.
:31:43. > :31:46.The re-think child benefit cuts, that will change? In terms of the
:31:46. > :31:49.welfare reform, there is no u-turn planned. Child benefit is done by
:31:49. > :31:54.the Treasury as part of the budget preparation, I don't know what they
:31:54. > :31:57.are doing. Would you be surpriseded for a re-think on child benefit?
:31:57. > :32:02.would be surprise. Would you be surpriseded if there was a change
:32:02. > :32:05.to that policy now? We will always, with every policy try to implement
:32:06. > :32:09.it in as sensible a way as possible. I have heard nothing to suggest
:32:09. > :32:12.that we are about to change direction massively on child
:32:12. > :32:17.benefit. The Prime Minister has said he will be careful and
:32:17. > :32:21.thoughtful about how we do it, and makes changes as effectively and
:32:21. > :32:24.efficiently as possible. Scotland Yard has launched a
:32:24. > :32:30.criminal inquiry over claims that British spies were involved in the
:32:30. > :32:34.rendition and torture of Libyans. One of the leaders of the anti-
:32:34. > :32:37.Gaddafi forces, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, a rebel command, Libyan exile, says
:32:38. > :32:42.he was tortured after being detained with his wife in 2004,
:32:42. > :32:47.when they were trying to seek asylum in the UK, and held for six
:32:47. > :32:53.years in Libyan prisons. Our correspondent is with us now. How
:32:53. > :32:56.worried should those that were in charge then be now? Up until now
:32:56. > :33:00.people have been saying we don't have a huge problem with this.
:33:00. > :33:03.People in Whitehall. It it is interesting that the heat has gone
:33:03. > :33:07.up distinctly today. The announcement of a police, formal
:33:07. > :33:11.investigation, and we hear tonight, for example, from the Independent,
:33:11. > :33:16.they have a bit of a scoop, that the police planned to talk to Jack
:33:16. > :33:20.Straw about this. The Intelligence Services's armed was everything
:33:20. > :33:23.they did in relation to these case was properly authorised. The form
:33:23. > :33:26.it takes a submission, called, to the Foreign Secretary, to seek
:33:26. > :33:31.political approval for a particular course of action. That is why the
:33:31. > :33:34.police would want to talk to Jack Straw. If he indeed did sign off on
:33:34. > :33:39.these operation, they want to know exactly under what terms and what
:33:39. > :33:44.was the arrangement. What is being alleged, in the case of Abdel Hakim
:33:44. > :33:48.Belhadj, who, of course, has come to prominence in Libya, as one of
:33:48. > :33:54.the men who took Tripoli from Colonel Gaddafi. There he is after
:33:55. > :34:01.the fall of Tripoli. Is he he was picked up with his wife, in Bangkok,
:34:01. > :34:03.they were then detained by the authorities and put on a plane. The
:34:03. > :34:07.other story, Sami Al-Saadi, said he was picked up in Hong Kong and put
:34:07. > :34:11.on a plane. Both men said he they spent years in Libyan jails being
:34:11. > :34:15.tortured. The people who did the picking up were not British, the
:34:15. > :34:18.people who put planes in to take them to Libya were not British. The
:34:18. > :34:22.allegation is British intelligence was used to tip-off the local
:34:22. > :34:26.authorities that these machine were there, to detain them, and then to
:34:26. > :34:31.grease the wheels, if you like, of the rendition machine to much match
:34:31. > :34:37.up people, places, planes and get them to Libya. That is the
:34:37. > :34:43.allegation, which would involve a lot of sophis it try if it was to
:34:43. > :34:48.stay inside the guidelines. How does it fit in with the wider
:34:48. > :34:52.graft of inquiries? A couple ended today, the Crown Prosecution
:34:52. > :34:57.Service said they decided there was no case to answer against an MI5
:34:57. > :35:02.answer referred to as Witness B, connecteded with the case of Binyam
:35:02. > :35:07.Mohamed, and an MI6 officer present at Bagram Air Base in 2002, when a
:35:07. > :35:11.suspect was being mistreat there. That's over, nothing will happen to
:35:11. > :35:16.those people. There is a bigger story, which is the Gibson Inquiry.
:35:16. > :35:19.This was supposed to look into all sorts of claims reason decision and
:35:19. > :35:24.alleged British involvement in torture, connected with the
:35:24. > :35:28.Intelligence Services in that early called war on terror period. Up
:35:28. > :35:31.until now, this inquiry has made no headway whatsoever. They said they
:35:31. > :35:35.were waiting for the decision on those two case that is we heard
:35:35. > :35:41.about today. But the lawyer for those two Libyans we heard about at
:35:41. > :35:46.the beginning, is now questioning whether the inquiry as a whole, the
:35:46. > :35:49.Gibson Inquiry into the wider issues can still go ahead at all.
:35:49. > :35:52.I understand the inquiry has announced it will be reviewing the
:35:52. > :35:57.position. From the point of view from all of the people, who I'm
:35:57. > :36:02.aware of, who are concerned, the hope is this will be the final nail
:36:02. > :36:07.in the coffin of what would have ended up being a really rather
:36:07. > :36:14.shabby excuse for an inquiry, rather than what is required about
:36:14. > :36:17.something as important and serious as this range of allegations.
:36:17. > :36:22.how real then is the danger of a whitewash in these inquiries?
:36:22. > :36:28.is what the people on that side of the argument have said they are
:36:28. > :36:30.concerned about. The chief of MI6, John Sawers, said today they would
:36:31. > :36:35.co-operate fully with the new inquiry into the Libyan cases. That
:36:35. > :36:38.they had nothing to fear from it. That it was in their interests to
:36:38. > :36:42.get the issue resolved and to move ahead with all the issues they are
:36:42. > :36:47.facing. I think there are questions though about the degree to which
:36:47. > :36:53.people like policemen can delve into the secret world. If, forks,
:36:53. > :36:55.people claim - for example, people claim not to remember things and
:36:55. > :37:01.not present themselves for questioning because they are out of
:37:01. > :37:04.the country. There are limits to push into the secret world. This
:37:04. > :37:08.could provide a point of conflict between investigators and the
:37:09. > :37:13.secret world. Hillary Clinton tonight told of her
:37:13. > :37:20.total dismay after a video showing US Marines your reignating on what
:37:20. > :37:25.are thought to be dead -- urineating on what are thought to
:37:25. > :37:29.be dead Taliban soldiers. Two of the marines had beened identified.
:37:29. > :37:35.Afghan President, Hamid Karzai brand the acts inhumane. While a
:37:35. > :37:41.member of his peace council warn the video could act as a recruiting
:37:41. > :37:46.tool for the Taliban. In the 1980s it was all about sushi, signs and
:37:46. > :37:51.neon lights. Tokyo was buzzing and the rest of the world couldn't get
:37:51. > :37:56.enough. Japan's bubble burst, the stock market crash sending the
:37:56. > :38:00.country tumbling. They call the next 20 years the dead zone of flat
:38:00. > :38:04.growth. We are looking to see if we are heading the same way. What
:38:04. > :38:09.lessons to learn to avoid it. We will learn from an economist to say
:38:09. > :38:14.it is a myth that Japan failed a over those years. And Gillian Tett
:38:15. > :38:19.who worked there for many years. Japan doesn't look like it's been
:38:19. > :38:25.stagnating for 20 years. The streets are bustling, almost half
:38:25. > :38:31.of all women have a Mike 'The Hatchet' McVitie handbag, and other
:38:31. > :38:35.luxury brands are not -- Mike 'The Hatchet' McVitie handbag, and --
:38:35. > :38:39.Louis Vuitton handbag, and other brands are not far behind. Is the
:38:39. > :38:43.model not to fear but to follow in Japan.
:38:43. > :38:48.The Full Heart Company has doubled its work force, since the bad times
:38:48. > :38:52.began. They produce panels that control the machines that make the
:38:52. > :38:58.exports Japan is famous for, cameras and cars. The jobs of the
:38:58. > :39:08.staff have never been under threat. Have you ever laid anyone off, ever
:39:08. > :39:10.
:39:10. > :39:16.let anyone go? We never laid off the people. But we made the
:39:16. > :39:26.employees take the salaries down. Why have you never laid off people,
:39:26. > :39:27.
:39:28. > :39:33.if the economy has been bad? Why? Because we don't have bad people.
:39:33. > :39:36.In recent years, Japan has been held up as a dreadful warning to
:39:36. > :39:42.western Governments. What the future would be like if they failed
:39:42. > :39:49.to get a grip on the economic crisis. Not just one, but two lost
:39:49. > :39:53.decades. Of little or no growth. Japan's GDP growth has certainly
:39:53. > :40:00.lagged behind the west. But other indicators suggest a different
:40:00. > :40:06.story. Per cap at that, electricity consumption grew nearly twice as
:40:06. > :40:11.quickly in Japan between 1990 and 2004, compared to the United States.
:40:11. > :40:16.59 of the world's 100 cities with the fastest broadband connections
:40:16. > :40:23.are here. Life expectancy has risen to 83, the highest in the world.
:40:23. > :40:27.The unemployment rate is just 4.5%. In Britain it is 8.3%. Keith Henry
:40:27. > :40:36.has lived in Japan for 27 years, and now advises foreign companies
:40:36. > :40:41.on doing business here. Japan has succeeded in providing a stable
:40:41. > :40:46.economic past, present and looks like, in the near term at least,
:40:46. > :40:51.economic stability. At a level wealth that the world has never
:40:51. > :40:57.seen before. That type success is then reflected in Japanese society.
:40:58. > :41:01.That brings the social cohesion, absolutely.
:41:01. > :41:05.Tokyo's skyline glitters, economic malaise or not. Perhaps not
:41:05. > :41:09.everything is bright.P Japan's national debt has soared in recent
:41:09. > :41:14.decades. The biggest now in the industrialised world. One day there
:41:15. > :41:21.may be a reckoning, an economic collapse, not avert, but merely
:41:21. > :41:24.postponed. Gillian Tett is still with me. From
:41:24. > :41:29.Tokyo we are joined by Eamonn Fingleton, who believesp Japan's
:41:29. > :41:35.failure is a fifth. We will start from you, you go against the grain
:41:35. > :41:40.on this, do you believe the lost decades were a myth? Yes, indeed.
:41:40. > :41:45.As it was pointed out, consumer living standards are very high here,
:41:45. > :41:51.and have increased. Life expectancy and so on, a greatism improvement.
:41:51. > :41:54.But also, a key thing -- a great improvement, but also a key thing
:41:54. > :41:59.people overlook is the trade situation in Japan is very strong,
:41:59. > :42:06.it was very strong in the 80s, that was the reason that the country was
:42:06. > :42:16.known as jugger naut Japan, but the current account surplus in 2010 was
:42:16. > :42:19.
:42:19. > :42:23.three of-times the figure for 1989. Japan, you referred to earlier to
:42:23. > :42:29.Japan as the example of advanceded manufacturing, you can see how it
:42:29. > :42:32.trades with China. It sells about $140 billion to China. It has done
:42:32. > :42:39.it from a position of weakness, if you like. If you look at growth as
:42:39. > :42:44.a measurement, nothing is happening. Is that not such a bad thing?
:42:44. > :42:49.suggesting that growth is probably understated by western accounting
:42:49. > :42:53.standards. There are various reasons for that. There are
:42:53. > :42:59.enormous accounting issues in how growth is calculate. The Japanese
:42:59. > :43:03.are very conservative on this, is my point pt if you look at the key
:43:03. > :43:07.things that are really -- if you like at the key things really
:43:07. > :43:12.incontravertable, Japan is doing well. This throws our received
:43:12. > :43:16.wisdom into a different light. Should we, you know, on the brink,
:43:16. > :43:21.or in recession be looking at Japan and saying we don't want to go that
:43:21. > :43:26.way, tell us what to do to prevent it. One of the great unexpecteded
:43:26. > :43:30.benefits of the financial crisis, is many chrished pieces of received
:43:30. > :43:36.wisdom -- cherished pieces of received wisdom have been
:43:36. > :43:42.questioned, certainly about America and Japan. And it is right, that
:43:42. > :43:46.aspects of the Japanese economy do need more praise. The GDP, one
:43:46. > :43:49.important factor people forget is the Japanesep population has been
:43:49. > :43:54.shrinking and in America increasing. That influences the numbers. I wo
:43:54. > :43:59.argue the most important point of all, is -- I would argue one of the
:43:59. > :44:02.most important points of all is the issue of social cohesion. What is
:44:02. > :44:09.striking about Japan, the level of social cohesion, the ability to
:44:09. > :44:15.share pain and pull together. are risk averse?, they do not like
:44:15. > :44:20.debt or savings? Lock at the example about the labour force --
:44:20. > :44:24.look at the example about labour force and salaries, bosses can cut
:44:24. > :44:27.workers' pay when times are bad and raise them when times are good is
:44:27. > :44:31.very important. It is not that different from Germany, but it
:44:31. > :44:36.creates a lot more flexibility and much more cohesion that helps them
:44:36. > :44:40.to wear the pad times. Eamonn Fingleton, interesting that, if
:44:40. > :44:43.social cohesion is a massive thing, if we are broadly in a similar
:44:43. > :44:50.place to where Japan was, could you really say to those of us here in
:44:50. > :44:54.the west, it doesn't matter? think the position of Britain and
:44:54. > :45:00.in the United States is much more serious than the one that Japan
:45:00. > :45:04.faced in the early 1990s. The crash, the financial crash inp Japan was
:45:04. > :45:08.truly spectacular, but -- in Japan was truly spectacular, but the
:45:08. > :45:18.effect on the economy was minimal. Basically, the undereconomy of
:45:18. > :45:19.
:45:19. > :45:23.manufacturing, which is the engine in the car -- underperforming of
:45:23. > :45:28.the economy of manufacturing which is the engine of the car brought
:45:28. > :45:32.them out. The system of employment is the strength of Japan, it is
:45:32. > :45:36.often criticiseded, but this it has this great strength that it is
:45:36. > :45:41.flexible and still maintains a high level of overall employment. What
:45:41. > :45:47.about the massive debt mountain Japan has got? It is a problem. But
:45:47. > :45:51.it is partly an issue about social cohesion and shared pain. Most of
:45:51. > :45:55.the debt is held by the Japanese. 90% of the bond market is held by
:45:55. > :45:59.the Japanese. If the Japanese are collectively willing to take a
:45:59. > :46:02.haircut to suffer losses on the debts in the future, frankly, that
:46:02. > :46:08.kind of doesn't matter. If there are foreigners are fd involved, as
:46:09. > :46:15.they are in countries like the UK and the US, where half of the UK
:46:15. > :46:19.debt is held by non-investors. The question is do you pull together or
:46:19. > :46:24.not as a society. The downside is I don't think most Americans and most
:46:24. > :46:28.British people would agree to live with the kind of other side of that
:46:28. > :46:34.system consensus, namely, a very impress Sonning society, where you
:46:34. > :46:40.have to conform -- impress Sonning society where you have to conform.
:46:40. > :46:45.Would we live in a situation where many women when they get married
:46:45. > :46:55.and have children they stop work. That is the reality ofed modernp
:46:55. > :47:17.
:47:17. > :47:27.Japan. It is a trade -- reality of That is all we have time for
:47:27. > :47:55.
:47:55. > :48:03.Hello Widespread frost tomorrow morning.
:48:03. > :48:13.A bid of cloud and the North West England and the Midland. For much
:48:13. > :48:16.of England, crisp, clear afternoon. Closer to home it should be the way
:48:16. > :48:20.of cold. In East Anglia quite pleasant. South-West Midlands and
:48:20. > :48:26.eastern parts of Wales, we could see patchy low cloud, coming and
:48:26. > :48:29.going through the day. Some lingering in the south west. For
:48:29. > :48:32.most a dry and sunny day. In Northern Ireland the brightest
:48:32. > :48:37.conditions in the morning. Particularly acrossle central and
:48:37. > :48:41.eastern areas, to the west one or two spots of rain. Across much of
:48:41. > :48:47.Scotland enjoying a settle spell. The North West, particularly the
:48:47. > :48:51.Western Isles and some rain developing. The difference between
:48:51. > :48:55.Friday and Saturday will be a bit more clout for northern and western
:48:55. > :48:59.areas. Patchy frost -- more cloud for northern and western areas.
:48:59. > :49:04.Patchy frost. A little bit more cloud generally in the south, for
:49:04. > :49:08.the start of the weekend. That said, still a lot sunshine, some of that