:00:07. > :00:13.France and eight other countries downgraded, the eurozone bailout in
:00:13. > :00:18.peril, is this the end of the Franco German access at the heart
:00:18. > :00:22.of -- axis at the heart of Europe. The world's leading ratings agency
:00:22. > :00:25.says austerity is failing. 20 months on, why can no-one solve the
:00:25. > :00:32.crisis that threatens Europe and the world economy.
:00:32. > :00:37.We speak to the world's largest bond trade year, a G20 adviser, a
:00:37. > :00:43.former British minister and a French economist. As the head of
:00:43. > :00:47.the Arab League warns that Syria is sliding towards civil war, we're in
:00:47. > :00:50.Damascus. We have been told not to travel anywhere outside the city
:00:50. > :01:00.centre, that is because in the suburbs, on previous Fridays, there
:01:00. > :01:03.has been serious trouble. Good evening. You don't have to be
:01:03. > :01:06.superstitious to realise today was a bad one all round for the
:01:06. > :01:13.eurozone. This evening the confirmation of the news the French
:01:13. > :01:16.dreaded, the country would lose its triple-A status with Standard &
:01:16. > :01:21.Poor's. Humiliation on a national level, particularly for paed facing
:01:21. > :01:23.re-election in spring. The move could spell disaster for the entire
:01:23. > :01:28.European bailout package, the European Financial Stability Fund.
:01:28. > :01:32.Spain, Italy and six others were downgraded too, to round things off
:01:32. > :01:35.talks on Greek debt write-offs have stalled. In a moment we will ask
:01:35. > :01:39.the world's largest bond trader what impact this will have on the
:01:39. > :01:44.world economy. We will talk to key figures here in Paris and London.
:01:44. > :01:50.Will tonight's news spell the end of the Merkozy partnership, the
:01:50. > :01:54.axis of European leadership. Germany, Finland, the netherlands
:01:54. > :01:58.and Luxembourg, these are the only countries left in the eurozone,
:01:58. > :02:03.where lending to them is 100% safe. France tonight had to face a
:02:03. > :02:07.humiliating debt downgrade. The French Finance Minister shrugged it
:02:07. > :02:12.off. TRANSLATION: We had warning this
:02:12. > :02:16.was going to happen a month ago. It is not a big surprise.
:02:16. > :02:21.No it is not a catastrophy. It is like asking a pupil, who was always
:02:21. > :02:26.getting 20 out of 20, if getting a 19 out of 20 is a catastrophy. No,
:02:26. > :02:31.of course it isn't. We have still got a great rating. But the
:02:31. > :02:35.implications are huge. The ratings agency S & P, which also downgraded
:02:35. > :02:38.Portugal, Austria and Spain, said the agreement reached on 9th
:02:38. > :02:42.December has not produced a breakthrough of sufficient size and
:02:42. > :02:48.scope to fully address the eurozone's financial problems. And
:02:48. > :02:52.they said, dammingly, a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal
:02:52. > :02:55.austerity alone, risks become self- defeating. In the short-term all
:02:55. > :03:00.this makes this a bit more costly for France to borrow money. But the
:03:00. > :03:04.move now calls into question the viability of the eurozone bailout
:03:04. > :03:09.fund, the called EFSF, that is backed by Government, and if one of
:03:09. > :03:12.them loses debt credibility, so does the fund. I don't think that
:03:12. > :03:19.the ratings agencies are giving us any new information. I think that
:03:19. > :03:23.they are telling us what we already knew. Part of what wr seeing
:03:23. > :03:28.happening is the ratings agencies were really humbled in 200, by the
:03:28. > :03:32.fact that they failed to give people -- 2008, by the fact that
:03:32. > :03:35.they failed to give people an indication beforehand. I wouldn't
:03:35. > :03:40.say they are trigger happeny now, but they are determined not to be
:03:40. > :03:45.caught out again. Meanwhile, in Greece, the eurocrisis took a whole
:03:45. > :03:50.different turn for the worse. Talks broke down between banks and the
:03:50. > :03:56.Greek Government over the supposedly big write-off of half
:03:56. > :04:04.Greek debt. That puts in question the second Greek bailout, worth 130
:04:04. > :04:08.billion euros. As Greek recoveryle stalls and debt spirals, the
:04:08. > :04:12.question over Europe's recovery rises. The question of brinkmanship
:04:12. > :04:19.in Greece is the big financial story today the that is the big
:04:19. > :04:24.risk. So far Greece has gotten away with this slightly artificial
:04:24. > :04:29.voluntary restructuring. It hasn't been all that voluntary. But that
:04:29. > :04:34.has been an important fiction for the markets, because of all sorts
:04:34. > :04:37.of legal covenants around that. If that breaks down, then I think
:04:37. > :04:43.really up fortunately we are going to be in a stage in the European
:04:43. > :04:48.crisis. And while all this happens, Hungary's stand-off with the EU and
:04:48. > :04:55.IMF continues. Hungary's not in the euro, but its collapsing finances
:04:55. > :05:01.means it needs up to $20 billion of loans from the IMF. Exposure to
:05:01. > :05:05.Hungary what prompted S & P to downgrade Austria and Slovakia
:05:05. > :05:09.tonight. Bit by bit the links in the eurocrisis are being forged.
:05:09. > :05:14.Let's pick up with that. One reason this throws into
:05:14. > :05:18.question the whole idea of France and Germany, they lose parity. That
:05:18. > :05:21.was all so central to the two leaders at the top? Deep within the
:05:21. > :05:27.inner circle of Mrs Merkel's Government, what they believe is
:05:27. > :05:30.France and Germany have to be equals at the heart of the Uri
:05:30. > :05:33.europroject. When you hear the French minister saying it is like
:05:33. > :05:39.getting 19 out of 206789 the Germans look at it differently,
:05:39. > :05:41.both in fistle kal terms, who pays to bail out everybody else, and in
:05:41. > :05:44.moral terms, there has to be equalty. You can't have France
:05:44. > :05:49.leaving the solution countries, and becoming one of the problem
:05:49. > :05:53.countries. It is not yet, but this is a first step down that road.
:05:53. > :05:57.There is another political problem, of course, the whole thing rests on
:05:57. > :06:02.Mr Sarkozy getting re-elected. Because his opponent in France
:06:02. > :06:07.against the treaty, that isn't now, we hear, working. Mr Sarkozy now
:06:07. > :06:10.has to go to the polls and say I'm the man who lost our triple-A
:06:10. > :06:14.rating. Not easy to do. We heard one commentator say this
:06:14. > :06:19.is a new stage in the European crisis just when you thought it
:06:19. > :06:24.wasn't going to get any worse. What are the solutions now, are they
:06:24. > :06:29.changing as a consequence of this? It hasn't got worse in a sense
:06:29. > :06:33.tonight, S & P says the policy of pumping money into the system is
:06:33. > :06:38.holding the situation. There is a really interestingp couple of lines
:06:38. > :06:42.in this, where they say you are misdiagnosing the problem, you
:06:42. > :06:47.think it is profligacy on the borders, Greece and Ireland, it is
:06:47. > :06:52.both that and Europe's general lack of competitiveness, its general
:06:52. > :06:55.malaise and problem. They say if you try to solve this with
:06:55. > :07:00.austerity alone, it will not work. It will be a spiral that will
:07:00. > :07:04.simply, the implication is, lead to a whole string of defaults. That
:07:04. > :07:10.sounds a bit like what Ed Balls says in this country, but in the
:07:10. > :07:16.eurozone it is what Barroso has been saying, and Dominic Strauss
:07:16. > :07:19.Khan used to say. You can't cut your way out of the crisis. And for
:07:19. > :07:23.a very neo-liberal American Wall Street company to back that up is
:07:23. > :07:26.quite surprising. Thank you very much.
:07:26. > :07:32.The eurozone crisis threatps the entire world economy, clearly, and
:07:32. > :07:37.to try to see where it might end, I'm joined now from Paris from
:07:37. > :07:41.Professor Christian de Boissieu, an economist, and from California by
:07:41. > :07:46.Mohamed El-Erian, one of the world's biggest bond traders, and
:07:46. > :07:51.here by the former minister, Baroness Vladivostok, thank you
:07:51. > :07:55.very much for joining me. Professor De Boissieu, we heard your Finance
:07:55. > :07:58.Minister say it was not a catastrophy, of course it is not a
:07:58. > :08:03.catastrophy. As Paul was saying, it puts France now in the position of
:08:03. > :08:10.being one of the problem countries, not solution countries. That is
:08:10. > :08:14.bad? It is not a catastrophy, for me it is an event. It it is an
:08:14. > :08:19.event in the sense that it is creating, as you said, a gap, a
:08:19. > :08:25.financial gap between France and Germany, and I think that one
:08:25. > :08:29.purpose of the next summit, at the end of this month, will start to
:08:29. > :08:35.close this gap. I would say at least from the political viewpoint.
:08:35. > :08:40.And we have to deepen the Franco German co-operation, not despite
:08:40. > :08:44.thep gap, but because of the gap. That is interesting. Do you think
:08:44. > :08:49.that kind of co-operation, that parity can exist in the same way we
:08:49. > :08:56.have seen it in the last year or so? You are talking about austerity,
:08:56. > :09:06.you know. Just a word about this, we have to work on the two legs. I
:09:06. > :09:06.
:09:06. > :09:12.remember that one year ago the rating at were asking only for
:09:12. > :09:17.fiscal consolidation, and now, they are right when they ask for the two,
:09:17. > :09:21.fiscal counsel daigs, plus some growth initiative -- consolidation,
:09:21. > :09:26.plus some growth initiative. The same, the next European Summit at
:09:26. > :09:30.the end of January, will have to address the growth, the growth
:09:30. > :09:34.problem for Europe. Very interesting. We will just try to
:09:34. > :09:39.fix that sound problem. Apologies for that there. If I can turn to
:09:39. > :09:46.you, Mohamed El-Erian, is it wrong to take too much from one agency.
:09:46. > :09:52.Will it actually make a difference to how you trade, how you invest?
:09:52. > :09:56.In the short-term it will not. In fact, the markets had priced in a
:09:56. > :10:01.much biger downgrade than what S & P delivered for fraps. In the short
:10:01. > :10:05.run, no, -- France. In the short run, no. In the long run this is
:10:05. > :10:09.really consequential. First, as has been discussed. It creates a wedge
:10:09. > :10:13.at the inner core of the eurozone, that makes solutions much more
:10:13. > :10:19.difficult. Secondly, it undermines pan-European vehicle that is are
:10:19. > :10:23.there to bail out other countries. Thirdly, let's not forget that when
:10:23. > :10:27.you lose your triple-A, you change your investor base, there are fewer
:10:28. > :10:34.people out there, because certain people have a limit of triple-A on
:10:34. > :10:37.where they are willing to invest. In the short run it is not an
:10:37. > :10:44.immediate reaction because the market had priced more, but it is a
:10:44. > :10:50.par dime shift for Europe. leaves -- Pardigm shift. For Europe.
:10:50. > :10:54.It leaves Germany where it didn't want to be, going it alone? That is
:10:54. > :10:58.a very valid point, the fund that is there to bailout European
:10:58. > :11:03.countries has now got fewer triple- A countries backing it. That will
:11:03. > :11:08.make really hard for it to raise money. Literally one major one, it
:11:08. > :11:11.is Germany? Indeed. The question that is now facing Europe is, in
:11:11. > :11:15.the event that Italy and Spain can't access the markets any more,
:11:15. > :11:19.where is the source of liquidity, if it is not this fund, it doesn't
:11:19. > :11:23.want to be Germany, and the European Central Bank says it is
:11:23. > :11:26.constrained and can't do certain things, who going to bail out Italy
:11:26. > :11:32.and Spain. That is the question we are going to face going forward.
:11:32. > :11:37.Are you saying this is the end of the EFSF in its current shape now?
:11:37. > :11:41.To be perfectly Honest, the EFSF has had a limited amount of money,
:11:41. > :11:45.and the situation hasn't particularly changed. The agreement
:11:45. > :11:48.they reached to leverage it four or five times was always rather
:11:48. > :11:52.nonsensical, the situation is actually very similar to where we
:11:52. > :11:57.were before, which is who going to provide the liquidity. Mohamed El-
:11:57. > :12:01.Erian, we were talking about the dual angle of the news today, you
:12:01. > :12:05.were saying that this made it much more difficult for countries to
:12:05. > :12:09.have a concerted project, if you like, to help others. We know that
:12:09. > :12:13.Greek debt talks have now stalled, what's the future there, do you
:12:13. > :12:21.think we're actually going to see that whole debt having to be
:12:21. > :12:25.written off, because basically defaulted on its own? There is no
:12:25. > :12:29.doubt in my mind that Greece will default. By he default I mean that
:12:29. > :12:34.if you are a holder of Greek bonds, the terms of your bonds are change.
:12:34. > :12:39.You will take what's called a haircut. You will have a lower
:12:39. > :12:43.claim on Greece. The question how is this done? There was a hope that
:12:43. > :12:47.you could do this in an orderly fashion, which is is another way of
:12:47. > :12:51.saying you don't trigger legal contracts. What happened today
:12:51. > :12:55.makes that more complicated. But I don't think it is that bad news. I
:12:55. > :12:59.have been stunned as to how tolerant the Greeks have been with
:12:59. > :13:02.their private creditors. Their private creditors were scaring the
:13:02. > :13:07.Greek, and I think it is a good thing, that the Greeks have
:13:07. > :13:10.realised that the balance of power is much more balanced than they had
:13:11. > :13:14.perceived before today. It is quite interesting, Christian de Boissieu,
:13:14. > :13:20.does it mean that France no longer has this moral authority then to
:13:20. > :13:25.turn to other countries and say, you know, you need to cut, you need
:13:25. > :13:31.to rein in, these are the areas that you need to work on? No, this
:13:31. > :13:38.is not the end of France. Let's be cautious about this. May I say it
:13:38. > :13:43.is not either the end of the EFSF, it is going to complicate the
:13:43. > :13:47.working and the cost of the EFSF. Therefore, I want to open for
:13:47. > :13:52.debate about the role of the ECB, because I think that beyond what
:13:52. > :13:54.has been at the sided today by Standard & Poor's, I think that --
:13:54. > :13:59.decided today by Standard & Poor's. I think that the debate about the
:13:59. > :14:02.possibility for the ECB to be a full lender of last resorter for
:14:02. > :14:08.the eurozone will come back. It will come back around the table.
:14:08. > :14:13.is interesting, isn't it, Germany's resisted this, Baroness Vladivostok,
:14:13. > :14:16.it is pretty much Germany on its -- Baroness Vader, it is really much
:14:17. > :14:21.Germany on its own with the fund, really doesn't matter? It does
:14:21. > :14:25.matter, as far as the ECB is concerned, they have constraints on
:14:25. > :14:31.their own institution, they can only buy debt on the secondary
:14:32. > :14:36.market. Today one member of the ECB said they are unhappy at the draft
:14:36. > :14:45.fistle kal pact that has been circulating, saying -- fiscal pact,
:14:45. > :14:49.saying that it has been wartrd down. Something to do with the S & P's
:14:49. > :14:54.downgrading saying austerity is not the only answer. With the ECB
:14:54. > :14:59.intervening it is asking for much tougher austerity. The other
:14:59. > :15:04.complication with the Greek debt that we should be aware of. If the
:15:04. > :15:09.deal becomes coercive not voluntary, it is the ECB, as a significant
:15:09. > :15:12.holder of Greek debt, will have to take a haircut and a loss. This
:15:12. > :15:18.idea that too much store was put on austerity, Christian de Boissieu,
:15:18. > :15:25.and it comes from quite an unusual source. Do you think that Europe
:15:25. > :15:29.will start to re-think the way it has been talking? We will be
:15:29. > :15:34.talking about spending rather than cutting? First, let me say, I don't
:15:34. > :15:40.think this do. Let me first say that there was a word "alone",
:15:40. > :15:44.fiscal austerity "alone", that is because fiscal solvency has a
:15:44. > :15:54.numerateor and denominator. You get into problems because you have too
:15:54. > :15:55.
:15:55. > :16:00.much debt, and also because you have too little growth. Any debt
:16:00. > :16:08.has to deal with the numerator and the deno mam theator. In Greece all
:16:08. > :16:12.the focus has been on the numerator. Two years where the Greeks have
:16:12. > :16:15.consentrated a lot on certain things and given a lot, it is no
:16:15. > :16:20.better than two years ago. The design of the programme has been
:16:20. > :16:25.too tilted towards the fistle kal side. It has to be brought back
:16:25. > :16:29.towards fistle kal and structural reforms to promote economic growth.
:16:29. > :16:33.How much of the euro zone is currently in resection. We won't
:16:33. > :16:37.know for sure, but when you look -- recession, we won't know for sure,
:16:37. > :16:47.but when we look at today and put it into practical terms, do you
:16:47. > :16:51.
:16:51. > :16:55.think most of the eurozone is in recession now. I do, Germany is
:16:55. > :16:58.slowing, but it isn't in recession. Everywhere in the world the head
:16:58. > :17:02.wind will come from Europe in the form of lower growth, and low
:17:02. > :17:05.demand for exports, and more financial disruptions. He yes,
:17:05. > :17:10.unfortunately, most European countries are already in what feels
:17:10. > :17:13.like and what is a recession. Christian de Boissieu, just a very
:17:13. > :17:17.last question, your Finance Minister said before Christmas that,
:17:17. > :17:23.actually, Britain was the one that should be downgraded rather than
:17:23. > :17:29.France, would you go along with that? No, you know, I don't want to
:17:29. > :17:33.come into this debate between Great Britain and France, you know. I'm
:17:33. > :17:39.glad that Great Britain still triple-A, and we will see what is
:17:39. > :17:46.going on. This is not the end of the movie. And to come back to the
:17:46. > :17:52.growth initiative, I think that we have to do something very quickly,
:17:52. > :17:56.most European countries to go out of recession and of the zero growth
:17:56. > :17:58.situation, and to face the challenge of unemployment, which is
:17:58. > :18:04.the main challenge that we have to face today.
:18:04. > :18:08.Thank you very much all of you. In Syria, protests have erupted in
:18:08. > :18:11.several cities and the head of the Arab League says he fears the
:18:11. > :18:17.bloody unrest could degenerate into civil war. Opposition activists
:18:17. > :18:20.have called for mass rallies in support of the Free Syrian Army,
:18:20. > :18:24.defectors seeking to topple the Government. The Arab League sent a
:18:24. > :18:29.mission into the country to see if authorities were complying with a
:18:29. > :18:35.plan to halt the violence. One of the monitors said the league
:18:35. > :18:39.mission has only bought, Assad, the President, more time.
:18:39. > :18:44.Friday morning, the start of what usually is the biggest day of the
:18:44. > :18:47.week for anti-Government protests in Syria. Outside Damascus's most
:18:48. > :18:57.venerable mosque, with Government Goons standing around, all the
:18:58. > :18:59.
:18:59. > :19:04.voices are pro-regime. TRANSLATION: Everyone loves Bashar
:19:04. > :19:08.al-Assad, that is why we go out, in the rain, in the cold, even in snow.
:19:08. > :19:14.Everyone goes to support him. what do they think of all those who
:19:14. > :19:17.say there is no democracy here? They are not protesting about the
:19:17. > :19:22.freedom. They don't want the freedom. What do they want? They
:19:22. > :19:28.want to destroy our city. They say they simply want democracy, they
:19:28. > :19:31.want freedom? No, they are liars. This demonstration, in a tightly
:19:31. > :19:36.controlled environment, is the only one the Government wants us to see
:19:36. > :19:40.today. We have been told we can't travel anywhere outside the city
:19:40. > :19:47.centre, and that's because, in the suburbs, on previous Fridays, there
:19:47. > :19:56.has been serious trouble. Today, all main intersections were
:19:56. > :20:00.guarded by plain clothes security. The pictures posted on YouTube,
:20:00. > :20:07.show, what opposition sources say, was a sizeable anti-regime
:20:07. > :20:17.demonstration, in a suburb today. There was another, according to
:20:17. > :20:22.those sources, in the eastern day of city of Deraa, others show smoke
:20:22. > :20:26.billowing over Homs, scene of some of the Washington Post violence in
:20:26. > :20:29.the ten month uprising. Gunfire can be heard in the streets, and a
:20:29. > :20:34.Government tank was apparently set on fire. Across the country, at
:20:34. > :20:38.least ten people were reported killed in protests.
:20:38. > :20:41.Back in it central Damascus, life appeared to be continuing as normal.
:20:41. > :20:45.But you could feel the tension in the air.
:20:45. > :20:51.None of these people were prepared to talk to us. Afraid of opening
:20:51. > :20:56.their mouths in the presence of our Government minder. This district,
:20:56. > :21:00.Midian, in the heart of Damascus, has seen many anti-Government
:21:01. > :21:05.protests in recent months, many shot dead by Government forces. The
:21:05. > :21:09.regime is finding it harder to keep a grip, even op the capital. The
:21:09. > :21:14.Government says it has already offered citizens enough concessions.
:21:14. > :21:18.We see it like two parties, one part is the legitimate demands of
:21:18. > :21:22.the Syrian people. And the President doing his best with the
:21:22. > :21:25.Government to respond to legislative demands, he has
:21:25. > :21:29.completed many benchmarks and is committed to do more. On the other
:21:29. > :21:33.side there are people who are trying to kidnap the agenda of the
:21:33. > :21:39.reasonable demands of the people, to ride on it and hit Syria. What
:21:39. > :21:47.benchmark has he achieved? First, we abolished the martial law. We
:21:47. > :21:51.have a demonstrations, we are urging the opposition to
:21:51. > :21:55.demonstrate. These demonstrations are being fired on? It depends on
:21:55. > :21:58.the sequences you are watching on YouTube. I don't want to justify
:21:58. > :22:02.violence in any way. There are clear instructions for the security
:22:02. > :22:06.forces not to shoot, just to contaun. Suddenly somebody will be
:22:07. > :22:11.shooting at the soldiers, and they will be defending themselves. Yes,
:22:11. > :22:14.mistakes happened, yes, happened, but what a leader can promise
:22:14. > :22:23.accountability. There is no systematic or clear instruction to
:22:23. > :22:27.do a crackdown. I'm going to ask you one of the few opposition
:22:27. > :22:31.figures not in -- ask one of the few opposition figures not in
:22:31. > :22:35.hiding, about what the Government has saying, he is a moderate and
:22:36. > :22:40.wants talks, the regime has not reached out to him. TRANSLATION:
:22:40. > :22:43.For five months we haven't heard from the Government. They haven't
:22:43. > :22:46.contacted any opposition group. Maybe they are in touch with some
:22:46. > :22:52.political forces that are pro- regime, but the authorities are
:22:52. > :23:01.lying when they say he they want a political solution.
:23:01. > :23:06.Mobbed by reporters, Sudanese monitor, is the man many hope still
:23:06. > :23:09.will engineer a political solution. He heads an Arab League mission
:23:09. > :23:12.supposed to monitor and end violence. Even some of his own
:23:12. > :23:16.monitors have come under attack from Government forces and
:23:16. > :23:22.supporters. How worried are you about the safety of your monitors
:23:22. > :23:27.here? I am not worried about their safety. They are working, and they
:23:27. > :23:32.are doing their job. As we asked. They have been attacked?
:23:32. > :23:37.attacked. There has been an attack on them? Some of the monitors'
:23:37. > :23:42.vehicles tell another story. They have been wrecked by people who
:23:43. > :23:48.certainly appear to support President Assad.
:23:48. > :23:52.As the killing continued else, more apparently fervent supporters of
:23:52. > :23:56.President Assad gathered in a Damascus square today. Many of them
:23:56. > :24:00.are unlikely to care too much whether the monitoring mission
:24:00. > :24:06.succeeds. Syria's becoming ever more polarised. The stalemate here,
:24:06. > :24:09.of more dangerous. I'm joined now from Damascus. We
:24:09. > :24:14.heard you talking there of that need for a political situation.
:24:15. > :24:19.Where do you see this ending? strikes you, Emily, most forcibly,
:24:19. > :24:23.when you come here, that there seems to be almost no meeting point
:24:23. > :24:29.at all between what opponents and supporters of the Government
:24:29. > :24:34.believe, and all the talk by the Government of a foreign conspiracy,
:24:34. > :24:41.against Syria, just seems almost calculated to bring people further
:24:41. > :24:44.and further apart. Certainly, even the opposition agrees, that
:24:44. > :24:49.President Assad has some genuine support, on top of that there are
:24:49. > :24:53.many more people who don't like him, but are certainly afraid of the
:24:53. > :24:56.consequences of his possible fall. In some cases I have been told what
:24:56. > :25:03.that means individual families are being split, and on top of that,
:25:03. > :25:07.you have certainly the threat, now, of an ip creased militarisation of
:25:07. > :25:12.the conflict -- increased militarisation of conflict on both
:25:12. > :25:15.sides. You have he defectors carrying arms, and opponents
:25:15. > :25:18.carrying arms, as they say, to defend themselves. When you talk
:25:18. > :25:23.about individual families being split, sound like they are already
:25:23. > :25:28.on the road to civil war, now? think many people think they are.
:25:28. > :25:34.Really, a great deal depends now on the report of the monitors to the
:25:34. > :25:38.Arab League, that are come at the end of next week. If that is
:25:38. > :25:43.critical of the Syrian Government, that possibly opens the door for
:25:43. > :25:48.more pressure on the country from the UN. Although I think everyone
:25:48. > :25:53.agrees that intervention here, of the kind of intervention we saw in
:25:53. > :25:57.Libya completely unthinkable for diplomatic and geographical reasons.
:25:57. > :26:00.On the other happened, if the report favourable towards the
:26:00. > :26:07.Syrian Government, you think there is not much sign anything changing
:26:07. > :26:12.at all. Joining me now, the former US
:26:12. > :26:22.representative to NATO, and a founderer member of the Syrian
:26:22. > :26:22.
:26:22. > :26:28.opposition group, Building The Syrian State, and astro fist sis.
:26:28. > :26:32.-- atrophysicist. Do you feel civil war is inevitable? I think we may
:26:32. > :26:34.have passed a tipping point, two reasons, one is the degree which
:26:34. > :26:38.people are defecting from the military to join in armed
:26:38. > :26:43.opposition to the Government. And secondly, the statements and
:26:43. > :26:48.actions by Assad himself, both saying that he is accusing the
:26:48. > :26:52.uprisers of being forp of-inspired, and willing to use force of his own
:26:52. > :26:55.regime against that really without end. I think that is a really
:26:55. > :26:59.volatile situation that may have passed a point of no return. Do you
:26:59. > :27:04.think that what the Arab League hasp done, since December, has
:27:04. > :27:08.helped or hindered? I think it was a necessary thing to go through. It
:27:08. > :27:12.was important for the Arab League to raise the issues with Syria, to
:27:12. > :27:15.give him a chance to change course. To put monitors in there. As we
:27:15. > :27:19.have seen the monitors have been attacked, more people have been
:27:19. > :27:24.killed each day, since the monitors have been there, than even before
:27:24. > :27:28.that. We have to recognise that Assad is digging in, with a
:27:28. > :27:32.monopoly of force in the military and Intelligence Services and
:27:32. > :27:35.others, we will see increased bloodshed as he tries to hang on in
:27:35. > :27:41.this situation. There cannot be a political solution to this, it has
:27:41. > :27:45.gone too far? We have to force for one, there is no choice in Syria.
:27:45. > :27:50.As said, the Syrian war already -- the civil war has already started
:27:50. > :27:53.in areas around Homs, and the countryside. If unrest spreads in
:27:53. > :27:57.Syria, it will go outside the borders, reaching Lebanon and Iraq
:27:57. > :28:02.and the other countries. We can't afford to have it. Do you think he
:28:02. > :28:05.can be encouraged to leave, still? He has to be forced. If the
:28:05. > :28:08.international community push for a political solution and the
:28:08. > :28:11.opposition as well, and the Arab League, if everybody pushes for
:28:11. > :28:16.that solution, eventually we will reach it. We have to reach the
:28:16. > :28:22.condition where we reach a peaceful, the regime accepts a peaceful
:28:22. > :28:26.transition plan, there is no other choice, we can't push for force or
:28:26. > :28:31.foreign interveings. You talk the Arab League, wider, you will not
:28:31. > :28:35.get UN countries and China and Russia to agree to something like
:28:35. > :28:39.that? They won't agree to a Libyan- like situation, but a more peaceful
:28:39. > :28:44.transition plan. You need to put forward something these countries
:28:44. > :28:48.will accept. Do you think that will happen? No, it would be wonderful
:28:48. > :28:52.if this did, that would be the best outcome, but I don't think it will.
:28:52. > :28:56.Assad has made his stand that he will remain in power by force. You
:28:56. > :28:59.will have countries such as Russia and Iran that will continue to back
:28:59. > :29:03.him. The population that is suffering these attacks at the
:29:03. > :29:07.hands of the regime, will continue to suffer them, unless he is forced
:29:07. > :29:11.to go. Are you advocating what? is a very tough question, it is not
:29:11. > :29:16.simple, as your reporter said, there are lots of divisions within
:29:16. > :29:20.Syria, there are legitimate supporters for the regime, but
:29:20. > :29:23.there is also a lot of fear. There is an idea kicked around, I'm
:29:23. > :29:27.sympathetic to it, and I have seen it in other places where it is
:29:27. > :29:30.successful, the idea of a safe zone. You impose a zone where people can
:29:30. > :29:36.live without fear of attack, where you prevent aircraft or regime
:29:36. > :29:41.forces from getting there, that gives some space for humanitarian
:29:41. > :29:44.assistance and co-ordination with some time. It would never work, the
:29:44. > :29:50.area in north of Syria you are talking about, it is already not
:29:50. > :29:56.safe. The way to impose is by force, that will be more unsafe. What
:29:56. > :30:01.about the Syrians killed in the basements of the intelligence
:30:01. > :30:07.quarters in Homs, or hundreds of kilometres away, how will they be
:30:07. > :30:12.safe because of the area. How will those civilians be protected by an
:30:12. > :30:16.area in the north of Syria. Unless you push for a Libyan of-like
:30:16. > :30:21.scenario and push for civil war. Nobody is suggesting that? I would
:30:21. > :30:25.point to examples in Croatia, where the UN created safe zones to
:30:25. > :30:28.protect minority populations. Before it is too late? In the
:30:28. > :30:32.Kurdish region of Iraq where we had a safe zone in Iraq, that protected
:30:32. > :30:35.thousands of Kurds for a very long time. What I'm suggesting that
:30:35. > :30:38.there is a monopoly of force in the hands of the Government, they are
:30:38. > :30:42.determined to use it. In that situation, if you are going to
:30:42. > :30:46.bring about a change, you have to help the people push back on that.
:30:46. > :30:49.Thank you both very much indeed. We have lots of lovely newspapers
:30:49. > :30:52.for you, including all the French ones and their take on the
:30:52. > :31:02.downgrade, we have run out of time. Kirsty is here on Monday, good
:31:02. > :31:26.
:31:26. > :31:29.night from all of uts here. It's already cold outside. There
:31:29. > :31:32.will be a widespread frost for Saturday morning, there will be
:31:32. > :31:36.some fog much patches around as well. The fog could take a while to
:31:36. > :31:42.clear, once it has gone it is looking fine and sunny out there.
:31:42. > :31:47.Similar sort of day on Sunday morning. There will be stubborn fog
:31:47. > :31:51.patches, if it lingers tchures are struggle to get much above freezing.
:31:52. > :31:56.Blue skies by the jaefpb. Temperatures reaching 4-6. Mab a
:31:56. > :32:00.touch higher in the south west. -- maybe a touch higher in the south
:32:00. > :32:05.west. A breeze that will drift across Devon and Cornwall. A bit
:32:05. > :32:09.more of a breeze, for most of Wales fine and sunny. Highs of five or
:32:09. > :32:14.six. Same sort of temperatures across noerm. A gentle breeze will
:32:14. > :32:21.bring a little -- Northern Ireland, a gent breeze will bring a little
:32:21. > :32:26.loud. In Scotland a lot of cloud. The top temperatures seven or eight.
:32:26. > :32:29.The weather has settled across the UK because high pressure, the same
:32:29. > :32:32.high pressure system promising fine conditions across France, the low
:32:33. > :32:36.countries and Germany, chilly but sunny.
:32:36. > :32:40.Further south across Europe more distubed, rain in Rome, and