0:00:00 > 0:00:03On tonight's programme a clutch of demoralised economists, a rather
0:00:03 > 0:00:07jount jaunty Scottish first minister. The Swedish statistician
0:00:07 > 0:00:13who can foresee the future. The economy is in even more trouble
0:00:13 > 0:00:18than we thought. The fear is that a 21 isn't century crisis is as bad
0:00:18 > 0:00:23or worse than anything in the 1930s. Is there also an scenario that is a
0:00:23 > 0:00:27little more hopeful. Two economists and a financier offer us their
0:00:28 > 0:00:32ideas on reasons to be cheerful, or not. We are off for a role model
0:00:32 > 0:00:36for the Scottish First Minister. don't think, Jeremy, you can do
0:00:37 > 0:00:43yourself any great favours by comparing Scotland to Zimbabwe.
0:00:43 > 0:00:47comparing you to Mugabe? We report from China on what the
0:00:47 > 0:00:52word "freedom" mean to the urban poor and the urban woman about town.
0:00:52 > 0:00:56Do you feel as free as the women in the west? We feel free, we can do
0:00:56 > 0:01:00the things we want. No you can't? What do you mean. You can't change
0:01:01 > 0:01:06your Government? Why do we have to change our Government. We have the
0:01:06 > 0:01:13world famous statistician and sword swallower Hans Rossling here to
0:01:13 > 0:01:16make sense of China's position in the world. Following the death in
0:01:16 > 0:01:201976 we saw the start of economic growth in China, never did we think
0:01:20 > 0:01:30we would sit here tonight and discuss when China would catch up
0:01:30 > 0:01:32
0:01:32 > 0:01:37with Britain. As news goes it was about as the
0:01:37 > 0:01:42dentist telling you he will have to redo root canal work. The
0:01:42 > 0:01:46International Monetary Fund has looked at the evidence and decided
0:01:46 > 0:01:50the longed for recovery is at stalling point. It predicts the
0:01:50 > 0:01:53British economy growing slower than expected. Official figures here
0:01:53 > 0:01:57shows the national debt rising to over a trillion pounds. There is
0:01:57 > 0:01:59confident predictions it will stay there. Some may be day for staying
0:01:59 > 0:02:09in bed too. George Osborne will tell us what the British economy
0:02:09 > 0:02:15
0:02:15 > 0:02:19did in the last three months of The world faces a 1930s moment,
0:02:19 > 0:02:23unless it acts now to prevent a downward spiral into economic
0:02:23 > 0:02:26catastrophy. They are the words of the IMF boss, Christine Lagarde. As
0:02:26 > 0:02:30a former French minister, she knows more than most how European
0:02:30 > 0:02:40politicians have been dragging their feet in this crisis. On top
0:02:40 > 0:03:01
0:03:01 > 0:03:06of that bleak warning, the IMF The world recovery, weak in the
0:03:06 > 0:03:12first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicentre of the
0:03:12 > 0:03:17danger is Europe. But the rest of the world is increasingly affected.
0:03:17 > 0:03:26Things were more black and white back in the 1920s and 1930, in
0:03:26 > 0:03:31Germany inflation was so rampent it printed a one trillion mark note.
0:03:31 > 0:03:35Not yet in Britain, but the national debt has reached one
0:03:35 > 0:03:41trillion pounds. That is served as a starter before tomorrow's
0:03:41 > 0:03:45official growth figure, which may not show growth at all. The reality
0:03:45 > 0:03:49is the Office for Budget Responsibility revised up growth
0:03:49 > 0:03:52for 2011, and revised down growth for the UK in 2011. The Government
0:03:52 > 0:03:57likes to blame everybody else for the economic troubles except for
0:03:57 > 0:04:00itself. First they blamed the snow, then the royal wedding, now they
0:04:01 > 0:04:04are blaming the eurozone, when is this Government going to take
0:04:04 > 0:04:08responsibility for its own actions. If she wants to know whose
0:04:08 > 0:04:14responsibility at least partly for the mess this country is in, look
0:04:14 > 0:04:17immediately to her left. I have to say it's come to something when
0:04:17 > 0:04:21Katie Price's tweets make more sense on the economy than the
0:04:21 > 0:04:26Labour front bench. Even those in the City who doubt it are believers
0:04:26 > 0:04:29again in the UK economy. Last year I was the angel of doom, one of the
0:04:29 > 0:04:33most pessimistic in the market, this year I think growth will be
0:04:33 > 0:04:37better than anyone can presume. I'm looking for growth just below 1%,
0:04:37 > 0:04:40not anything to show off about. course, that is scant consolation
0:04:40 > 0:04:46for the thousands of people, especially in the retail sector,
0:04:46 > 0:04:53looking for new jobs in this rebalancing economy. Or even for
0:04:53 > 0:05:00those refining oil, in Coryton, whose parent job went bust today,
0:05:00 > 0:05:05jeopardising 850 jobs in Essex. The man who controls the cost of
0:05:05 > 0:05:10borrowing wasn't sugar-coating the bill many are facing in the economy.
0:05:10 > 0:05:13After the steepist downturn in output since the 1930s, the UK
0:05:13 > 0:05:20economy is in the process of rebalancing. Starting from a
0:05:20 > 0:05:25position of excessively leverageed balance sheets, the Pat of recovery
0:05:26 > 0:05:35is likely to be arduous, long and uneven. The position of the world
0:05:35 > 0:05:40economy, especially in the euroarea, is serious. There is no reason to
0:05:40 > 0:05:45dispassion all crises come to answered. -- despair, all crises
0:05:45 > 0:05:50come to an end. The health of the UK economy
0:05:50 > 0:05:55depends crucially on whether the train wreck of Europe can be
0:05:55 > 0:06:00righted. Greece is in talks about a one billion euro writedown. If they
0:06:00 > 0:06:04can't come to an agreement and there is a sudden default, all of
0:06:04 > 0:06:08Europe will be plunged into an instant recession. With the
0:06:08 > 0:06:14exemption of a few hedge funds who took out insurance against a Greek
0:06:14 > 0:06:17default, everyone else wants a deal, they know the consequences are too
0:06:17 > 0:06:20unpalatable if they don't. immediate consequences of a
0:06:20 > 0:06:25controlled default, is there would be significant pressure on other
0:06:25 > 0:06:31countries like Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. That in that
0:06:31 > 0:06:35financial markets would fear, or maybe expect similar defaults might
0:06:35 > 0:06:38happen there too. The crisis would very quickly transmit from Greece
0:06:38 > 0:06:41to these other countries, multiplying the effects, and
0:06:41 > 0:06:46leading to a much greater recession in the eurozone.
0:06:46 > 0:06:50But you don't think that will happen? We do not think that is the
0:06:50 > 0:06:53most likely scenario really for that reason. That the economic
0:06:53 > 0:06:57consequences are very significant indeed.
0:06:57 > 0:07:01But things aren't all that bad. The European Central Bank has made
0:07:01 > 0:07:05billions of euros available to Europe's banks at cheap rates, and
0:07:05 > 0:07:09it is starting to work. The cost for borrowing for Spain and Italy
0:07:09 > 0:07:14has gone down, and makes those countries less likely to join
0:07:14 > 0:07:17Portugal, Ireland and Greece in the bailout club. Across the Atlantic,
0:07:17 > 0:07:21whisper it, there are tentative signs of US recovery.
0:07:21 > 0:07:25So as President Obama prepares for his last State of the Union address
0:07:25 > 0:07:32before the election in November, he can also silently hope that
0:07:32 > 0:07:38unemployment will continue to inch downwards.
0:07:38 > 0:07:41For those yet to see the much lauded silent film The Artist, the
0:07:41 > 0:07:45central character finds resem in the end, having previously looked
0:07:45 > 0:07:49in all the wrong places. Perhaps Government and policy makers around
0:07:49 > 0:07:55the world have to be quieter in future and look in the right places
0:07:55 > 0:08:01for economic redemption. Our economics editor pauing Mason
0:08:01 > 0:08:05is here. This is a picture of --, Paul Mason is here. This is a
0:08:05 > 0:08:09picture of gloom what are they spelling out? They want to talk
0:08:09 > 0:08:14about the double-dip in the eurozone. There is a five-year
0:08:14 > 0:08:19growth pattern in the eurozone, the big dip in 2008, this year we
0:08:19 > 0:08:24expect a 0.5% shrinkage of the eurozone economy, on the back of 2%
0:08:24 > 0:08:28shrinkage in Spain and Italy. It is not the worst, they also do explore
0:08:28 > 0:08:32what if Greece explodes into people's faces, and on the bay sifs
0:08:32 > 0:08:38that they have projected a minus three -- basis of that they have
0:08:38 > 0:08:41projected a minus three in the eurozone. A it is not good. They
0:08:41 > 0:08:44have started to dole out advice to everybody, starting with the
0:08:44 > 0:08:48Americans. They have said to the Americans, not with standing your
0:08:48 > 0:08:51economy is doing all right at the moment, if political paralysis in
0:08:51 > 0:08:58America leads to an unnecessary withdrawal of the stimulus, it will
0:08:58 > 0:09:02be bad. They might as well as have said, "don't vote Republican", they
0:09:02 > 0:09:06didn't. To the EU, they have said get your act together, they have
0:09:06 > 0:09:12said to the Germans do less austerity. We don't know if they
0:09:12 > 0:09:18mean it for the Brits, they said anything who can get away with less
0:09:18 > 0:09:21do less. With the euro they have said there are two trillion euros
0:09:21 > 0:09:27available do what you have to do. What are they saying Governments
0:09:27 > 0:09:33need to do? Sub plement austerity with growth measures. That is where
0:09:33 > 0:09:37it gets down to -- microeconomics, one person's idea is state-backed
0:09:37 > 0:09:40funding in Germany, or a massive assault on labour costs in southern
0:09:40 > 0:09:44Europe. They never quite spell it out, because it is not in the
0:09:44 > 0:09:49tradition of countries to do these growth measures, certainly in the
0:09:49 > 0:09:58west for the last 20 years. The problem s austerity is not easy to
0:09:58 > 0:10:03do, but it is -- is, austerity is not easy to do, but it is easy to
0:10:03 > 0:10:08design. Macro-economics is not easy to abolish. It is not easy. With us
0:10:08 > 0:10:13now is Nicola Horlick, chief executive and founder of Bramdean
0:10:13 > 0:10:17Asset Management, Professor Christopher Pissarides, the Nobel
0:10:17 > 0:10:19Prize-winning economist, and the chair of economics in the London
0:10:19 > 0:10:23school economics. And Mariana Mazzucato, industrial economist
0:10:23 > 0:10:27from the university of Sussex. It is gloomy stuff from the IMF, are
0:10:27 > 0:10:33they right to be gloomy? Absolutely. I think sometimes people could
0:10:33 > 0:10:38benefit from taking a historical perspective. If you plot GDP data
0:10:38 > 0:10:44from 1850 to 1950, before the whole Keynesian stimulus began. There was
0:10:44 > 0:10:48depressions every 20 years, we have avoided depressions because since
0:10:48 > 0:10:511950, many Governments all over Europe and the US have done what
0:10:51 > 0:10:56Keynesian said, during the slump you do not take away aggregate
0:10:56 > 0:11:01demand, during the boom you try to rein in the horpbs. What we are
0:11:01 > 0:11:04seeing now is during the -- horns. What we are seeing now is during
0:11:04 > 0:11:08the boom period it was fuelled by Government policies, and during the
0:11:08 > 0:11:12bust we are seeing cuts in demand, which is hurting the ability of the
0:11:12 > 0:11:16economy to recover, asling with as the lack of the confidence of the
0:11:16 > 0:11:19business sector to invest. Are they being unnecessarily pessimistic?
0:11:19 > 0:11:24Maybe it is just because it is after Christmas. I think there is a
0:11:24 > 0:11:26little bit more optimisim. The problem with talking like this is
0:11:26 > 0:11:29becomes self-fulfiling. If everybody keeps saying the world
0:11:29 > 0:11:32will come to answered, it will come to an end. It is very important for
0:11:32 > 0:11:37some of us to be a little bit more positive. There are reasons to be a
0:11:37 > 0:11:42little bit more positive. What are they? Well, for a start, I think
0:11:42 > 0:11:45often what happens when we go through recessionary phases is
0:11:45 > 0:11:48people fear for their jobs, when organisations are cutting jobs,
0:11:48 > 0:11:52they are fearful. That means that people who aren't going to lose
0:11:52 > 0:11:55their jobs, because they are fearful, don't spend. Many
0:11:55 > 0:11:58organisations now have had a wave of redundancies, whether it is in
0:11:58 > 0:12:01the public sector or the private sector, and those people who didn't
0:12:01 > 0:12:07lose their jobs may be feeling a bit more optimistic, may be
0:12:07 > 0:12:11prepared to spend a bit more. You never know.
0:12:11 > 0:12:15The epicentre of the trouble, they locate in the eurozone. There is
0:12:15 > 0:12:22not much reason to think that is going to be resolved imminently, is
0:12:22 > 0:12:28it? It is so important that it is resolved fairly quickly, that you
0:12:28 > 0:12:32have to have confidence in the powerful nations, especially
0:12:32 > 0:12:37Germany, that they will do something. In fact, the very recent
0:12:37 > 0:12:40reports, maybe today or something, were very encouraging in the sense
0:12:40 > 0:12:45that they seem to be prepared to go for the tough fiscal discipline,
0:12:45 > 0:12:48which is needed, and then put some more money into the European
0:12:48 > 0:12:57Financial Stability Fund. They say. They have to start by saying it,
0:12:57 > 0:13:02before they do it. What do you make of the worries about the eurozone?
0:13:02 > 0:13:06It depends what you think the cause of the eurozone crisis was. If you
0:13:06 > 0:13:09look at deficit spending in almost every country except Greece, that
0:13:09 > 0:13:13was definitely not the problem. The deficits ran up after the crisis
0:13:13 > 0:13:16because of the bailouts and all the other problems with the economies.
0:13:16 > 0:13:20It is not true that you have austerity in Germany right now.
0:13:20 > 0:13:25They are spending, they just, I think, after the crisis, have
0:13:25 > 0:13:32increased, for example, their R & D spending by four billion. The
0:13:32 > 0:13:36problem is they think Germany is imimposing on the PIGs and France
0:13:36 > 0:13:40is imposing austerity, which they have not done in order to draw. If
0:13:40 > 0:13:43you look at human capital spending, R & D, that is part of the reason
0:13:43 > 0:13:50why Germany is having the success it is having. These are objective
0:13:50 > 0:13:54problems, which can't be overcome by increasing optimisim? Can they
0:13:54 > 0:13:57Pollyanna. It is not just optimisim, also there are things that are
0:13:57 > 0:14:00being done by the Government which should help. Infrastructure
0:14:00 > 0:14:04spending, we have had a series of announcements about. That that is
0:14:04 > 0:14:08one way of helping. On a more microlevel, there is something
0:14:08 > 0:14:12called the enterprise investment scheme, which has been enhanced in
0:14:12 > 0:14:16the UK. That gives individuals tax breaks in order to encourage them
0:14:16 > 0:14:20to invest in small and medium-sized enterprises, that is very key. The
0:14:20 > 0:14:23banks, as we know, aren't really lending to those businesses. There
0:14:23 > 0:14:28are things that are being done that will help to stimulate the economy
0:14:28 > 0:14:31eventually, I hope. Actually, the prognosis for Britain, it wasn't
0:14:31 > 0:14:37particularly exciting, but it wasn't as bad as it was for many
0:14:37 > 0:14:42other places? It wasn't as bad. But it didn't have to be as bad as it
0:14:42 > 0:14:46was either. Britain was in a much better position than other
0:14:46 > 0:14:55countries, it had its own independent mol monetary policy,
0:14:55 > 0:14:57that is important. Debt levels were not very high. There wasn't that
0:14:57 > 0:15:04much urgency to go into the austerity measure that is we did
0:15:04 > 0:15:07over a year ago. Having said that, though, it is important that the
0:15:07 > 0:15:12overall framework of the Italian poll -- the policies continue like
0:15:12 > 0:15:15that. The features of the policy should be transparent, not cause
0:15:15 > 0:15:20confusion in the markets. We understand very well what the
0:15:20 > 0:15:23Chancellor wants to do, markets understand it. The IMF seems to
0:15:23 > 0:15:30think there is a danger in austerity going too far, not in
0:15:30 > 0:15:35this country, but generally? It has to go far in Europe because the
0:15:35 > 0:15:40debt situation got so out of control. Especially in southern
0:15:40 > 0:15:45Europe and Ireland. When did it get out of control, do you think?
0:15:45 > 0:15:50Greece it got out of control. Forget Greece, but in Spain?
0:15:50 > 0:15:54Italy it was always high. Spain actually it is not, it is not out
0:15:54 > 0:15:58of control even now, if you look at the state finances. The problem for
0:15:58 > 0:16:03Spain is that following the housing boom that they had up to 2007,
0:16:03 > 0:16:09there is a lot of private debt. So the question is, what will happen
0:16:09 > 0:16:14to that private debt if the borrowers cannot pay. The mortgage
0:16:14 > 0:16:18holders cannot pay, the state will have to step in and help them,
0:16:18 > 0:16:22otherwise their banks will go bankrupt. And the private debt will
0:16:22 > 0:16:27quickly become public debt. The Italy had low rates of growth
0:16:27 > 0:16:31and had the highest GDP productivity rates in Europe, the
0:16:31 > 0:16:37problem was not spending too much, but in the wrong places. They were
0:16:37 > 0:16:40not growing, they had high debts, sooner or later they were going to
0:16:41 > 0:16:46get there. If you were in Government, and you read this IMF
0:16:47 > 0:16:50report, what would you conclude that you had to do as a matter of
0:16:50 > 0:16:54some urgency now. Looking at these really worrying forecasts. What
0:16:54 > 0:16:57would you do? I think it raes right that we should continue on the same
0:16:57 > 0:17:02-- it's right we should continue on the same Pat. We need to make sure
0:17:02 > 0:17:08the markets -- Pat. We need to make sure the markets have confidence in
0:17:08 > 0:17:15us. We don't need an economic crisis on greater scale, by making
0:17:15 > 0:17:20the markets concerned about Britain and not issuing enoughg ilts, it is
0:17:20 > 0:17:24important to continue on the path of consistency. There is always
0:17:24 > 0:17:27leeway, encouraging people to invest. There are plenty of
0:17:27 > 0:17:30companies out there with strong balance sheets, it is about
0:17:30 > 0:17:33confidence. If we can some how increase confidence levels people
0:17:34 > 0:17:39will continue to spend again, individuals or companies. What
0:17:39 > 0:17:44would you take as something you have to do immediately. Two things
0:17:44 > 0:17:48you have to do immediately, one is the Keynesian issue, you do not
0:17:48 > 0:17:53take away the increase in the VAT, that was a regressive tax that hurt
0:17:53 > 0:17:57poor people more than rich people. That hurts demand because lower
0:17:57 > 0:18:02income people spend most of their income. So when you take away from
0:18:02 > 0:18:05them, that immediately hits them, that is why Tesco sales went down
0:18:05 > 0:18:13recently. The freeze in public sector wages, that was not a smart
0:18:13 > 0:18:17thing to do in the recession. There is the Keynesian point, but that is
0:18:17 > 0:18:20what economies have been doing for the last 50 years. We have a
0:18:20 > 0:18:27strategic problem, we need strategic investments in particular
0:18:27 > 0:18:31areas. I would do a bit more along the lines that is done now for
0:18:31 > 0:18:35example national insurance contributions, if a company has
0:18:35 > 0:18:40unemployed workers, especially young unemployed, give it exemption
0:18:40 > 0:18:44from national insurance tax for as long as that person is there.
0:18:44 > 0:18:49Encourage more small businesses. We failed here to find new export
0:18:49 > 0:18:55markets. The eurozone is not much good as an export market right now,
0:18:55 > 0:19:00why not be more aggressive, go elsewhere, the Chancellor's trip to
0:19:00 > 0:19:05China was welcome, but firms could be doing more R & D, subsidised by
0:19:05 > 0:19:08the state. Strategic spending is not sensitive to taxation, it needs
0:19:08 > 0:19:11new opportunities to invest in it. The Scottish First Minister gave us
0:19:11 > 0:19:17a hint today about what his country might be like if he gets his way,
0:19:17 > 0:19:21and manages to bust up the United Kingdom. The latest opinion poll
0:19:21 > 0:19:27shows half of us doubt the existence of the UK in its current
0:19:27 > 0:19:33form in 20 years time. While Moses, I mean Alex Salmond didn't promise
0:19:33 > 0:19:37a land of milk and hundred, he did promise a beacon of progressiveness.
0:19:37 > 0:19:41We have been looking into the economic questions that need to be
0:19:41 > 0:19:45settled before any referendum. What better place to prepare for
0:19:45 > 0:19:49burns night and contemplate the intricacies of Scottish
0:19:49 > 0:19:51independence, than here at the headquarters of the London Scottish
0:19:51 > 0:19:58Regiment. Cheers, they have their own blend
0:19:58 > 0:20:01of whiskey. The first problem we have got to
0:20:01 > 0:20:08wrestle with, is whether Scotland will still be, as an independent
0:20:08 > 0:20:12state, a member of the EU. The SNP insists it will simply inherit the
0:20:12 > 0:20:16same treaty rights and obligations that the UK has at present. But
0:20:16 > 0:20:22some constitutional experts are not so sure.
0:20:22 > 0:20:27Rather annoyingly, EU treaties don't have a clause that we can
0:20:27 > 0:20:31point to to to give us a definitive answer. When a Welsh MEP asked what
0:20:31 > 0:20:35would happen a few years ago. The commission replied any newly
0:20:35 > 0:20:38independent region would have to leave the EU, and if it wanted to,
0:20:38 > 0:20:42reapply to join again. That would require all the other states,
0:20:42 > 0:20:46including the UK, to agree. politics will be a question of
0:20:46 > 0:20:51whether the UK can or will help, and whether countries, in
0:20:51 > 0:20:57particular like Spain, Italy, France, that may themselves face
0:20:57 > 0:21:03potentials sigs sessionist demands are willing to --s sessionist
0:21:03 > 0:21:06demands are willing to allow favours for Scotland. And how for
0:21:06 > 0:21:10the UK is, will depend on the independence negotiations as they
0:21:10 > 0:21:16form over time. There is another problem, if Scotland has to rejoin
0:21:16 > 0:21:20the EU, EU rules are clear, they have also to join the euro, and
0:21:20 > 0:21:25that might not be the most popular move right now. Let's for a moment
0:21:25 > 0:21:28assume the SNP is correct that Scotland can stay in the EU but
0:21:28 > 0:21:32doesn't have to join the euro, does that mean it can keep the pound F
0:21:32 > 0:21:36it does, in practice, how financially independent will it
0:21:36 > 0:21:40really be? Nobody could stop an independent
0:21:40 > 0:21:42Scotland from using the pound. The problem would be that the Bank of
0:21:42 > 0:21:45England would be setting interest rates without taking into account
0:21:45 > 0:21:49conditions in Scotland. They would have no control over the interest
0:21:49 > 0:21:55rate or exchange rate. A bigger problem is who is the lender of
0:21:55 > 0:21:59last resort. If the Scottish banks went belly up as in 208, would the
0:21:59 > 0:22:03Scottish Government be big enough to bail them out, it doesn't seem
0:22:03 > 0:22:08they would. As with any divorce things could get a little fraught.
0:22:08 > 0:22:11Let's start with who owns what, the oil, for example? Maritime borders
0:22:11 > 0:22:15aren't that clear cut. There is the question of the gold in the Bank of
0:22:15 > 0:22:20England vaults, and, of course, there is who gets what share of the
0:22:20 > 0:22:25UK's national debt. Today tipping a trillion pounds. Expect the legal
0:22:25 > 0:22:33big guns to get involved. The state of Scotland's finances looks
0:22:33 > 0:22:36something like this, �62 billion of public expenditure, �42 billion of
0:22:36 > 0:22:42revenue, excluding those oil revenues. If you include those
0:22:42 > 0:22:46revenues, that rises to �48 billion, still a deficit of �14 billion, of
0:22:46 > 0:22:50course, the UK as a whole is also in deficit. If Scotland became
0:22:50 > 0:22:58independent, what Scotland would lose is the current transfer from
0:22:58 > 0:23:02the UK of something like �8 billion, and then that gap, that is
0:23:02 > 0:23:07currently spent on public services in Scotland would have to be filled
0:23:07 > 0:23:12by the North Sea oil of �8 billion. If there is an oil price of around
0:23:12 > 0:23:17$100, that would be filled, if there was an oil price of $150 it
0:23:17 > 0:23:22would be more than filled and Scotland would be better off. If it
0:23:22 > 0:23:26was $50 there would be a problem. Oil is the key swing element here
0:23:26 > 0:23:35in terms of whether Scotland can sustain the current position, or do
0:23:35 > 0:23:41better or do slightly worse. think I might need another one.
0:23:41 > 0:23:45Because there is another big issue we have to grapple with, it is this.
0:23:45 > 0:23:50Without detailed answers to all of these and many, many more questions,
0:23:50 > 0:23:54how meaningful can any referendum of the Scottish people be? And,
0:23:54 > 0:23:57assuming they hear answers they like, and a deal they can accept,
0:23:57 > 0:24:03won't that have profound implications for the rest of the UK
0:24:03 > 0:24:06and costs as well. That's the case, well some believe that the rest of
0:24:07 > 0:24:13the UK should also have a referendum. This is to adapt the
0:24:13 > 0:24:17words of that famous son of Edinburgh, Sir Authur cone nan
0:24:17 > 0:24:23Doyle a three-bottle problem. I caught up with the First Minister
0:24:23 > 0:24:26a little earlier today. Alex Salmond, how would an independent
0:24:26 > 0:24:31Scotland be different? It would be governed as the people of Scotland
0:24:31 > 0:24:35would wish it to be governed. Raise their own taxes, decide on spending
0:24:35 > 0:24:41priorities, decide whether to go into illegal wars in rae, the
0:24:41 > 0:24:44answer would be no, incidently. It would be a difference of the
0:24:44 > 0:24:49formation. There would be a lot more if Scotland were independent.
0:24:49 > 0:24:53It would also be broke, wouldn't it? Independent Scotland would be
0:24:53 > 0:24:57the sixth most prosperous country in the EOCD, that is the reasonable
0:24:57 > 0:25:02basis to start being an independent country. We have a trillion worth
0:25:02 > 0:25:07of public debt in the country, how much would the Scots take?
0:25:07 > 0:25:12normal way to divide up debt is population share or GDP share. That
0:25:12 > 0:25:16will give us 8%. Incidently we would have 90% of a trillion pound
0:25:16 > 0:25:20asset in terms of oil and gas resources in the North Sea. But the
0:25:20 > 0:25:24birthright of any citizen of an independent Scotland will be about
0:25:24 > 0:25:27�16,000 worth of debt or more than that? The assets would be much
0:25:27 > 0:25:32greater. The difference between Scotland's position, well, you're
0:25:32 > 0:25:38talking about the debt that the UK has accumulated, we take our share
0:25:38 > 0:25:41of that, because we're part of the UK. We can't do anything about the
0:25:41 > 0:25:45mistakes of previous Chancellor of the Exchequer. You know the level
0:25:45 > 0:25:50of public spending in Scotland, the last year for which records are
0:25:50 > 0:25:55available? You also know. What was it? Scotland's fiscal position in
0:25:55 > 0:25:58four out of the five years has been positive, expenditure and revenue
0:25:58 > 0:26:03statement. Also, incidently. know what the level of public
0:26:03 > 0:26:09spending was in Scotland? And the level of revenue is higher, Jeremy.
0:26:09 > 0:26:14Over the last five years. official figures are �62 billion of
0:26:14 > 0:26:18public spending in Scotland. 2009/10, do you know what the
0:26:18 > 0:26:25revenues raised in Scotland were? know that in four out of the last
0:26:25 > 0:26:31five years. They were �48, there is a �14 billion gap? There is �150
0:26:31 > 0:26:36billion gap in the UK. Relative to the United Kingdom, Scotland is in
0:26:36 > 0:26:43a stronger fiscal position. Let's look at the reserves that your
0:26:43 > 0:26:46country would have available to you. Gold, first off. There is about 310
0:26:46 > 0:26:50tonnes gold that the Bank of England is looking after, what
0:26:50 > 0:26:53share of that do you want? Normally the way in independence to do these
0:26:53 > 0:26:57things, there is a well trod path, many countries have become
0:26:57 > 0:27:02independent. You have the same percentage of assets and the same
0:27:02 > 0:27:07percentage of liabilities. You want about 8% of the 300 tonnes of gold?
0:27:07 > 0:27:11That would be the normal way. A country's resources, we have gone
0:27:11 > 0:27:17past the measuring tile period. Country's resources aren't backed
0:27:17 > 0:27:23by gold. Just as well, Gordon Brown sold most of it. But you still want
0:27:24 > 0:27:31it? A fair division of assets and liabilities, including the range of
0:27:31 > 0:27:35assets that Scotland has. How get it -- how would you get it north?
0:27:35 > 0:27:38Many countries hold it in common. The bank of international
0:27:38 > 0:27:42settlements. You might leave it at the Bank of England? We have plenty
0:27:42 > 0:27:48of vaults in Scotland. Will there be an armoured train or something?
0:27:48 > 0:27:51It would be a lot better than the nuclear trains that go to Scotland
0:27:51 > 0:28:00at the moment. Let's look at the politics of it, you say an
0:28:00 > 0:28:04independent Scotland would be a beacon of progressiveness. I think
0:28:04 > 0:28:08I remember Robert Mugabe saying something similar about Zimbabwe?
0:28:08 > 0:28:14don't think you will do yourself any great favours comparing
0:28:14 > 0:28:21Scotland to Zimbabwe. And comparing you to Mugabe? Or myself or any
0:28:21 > 0:28:25other Scottish MP to Mugabe. Implicit in it, it is a one-party
0:28:25 > 0:28:29state? As the star of Zimbabwe television I wouldn't dream of
0:28:29 > 0:28:33comparing you to that person. Implicit is the belief there is
0:28:34 > 0:28:38really only one party that can rule Scotland? That's not the assumption.
0:28:38 > 0:28:41Scotland is not just a multiparty democracy. Incidently we have more
0:28:41 > 0:28:45parliamentary parties competing than you have south of the border
0:28:45 > 0:28:49at the present moment. But Scotland has a system of proportional
0:28:49 > 0:28:53representation, which ensures that minority voices have a chance of
0:28:53 > 0:28:55being regularly represented in our parliament. This is a beacon of
0:28:55 > 0:28:59progressiveness, are there other progressive parties in Scotland?
0:28:59 > 0:29:02Yes, there are. The Labour Party, are they progressive?
0:29:02 > 0:29:06particularly, sometimes in the past they have been progressive. But the
0:29:06 > 0:29:11Green Party are a progressive party. You were talking also about a
0:29:11 > 0:29:15social union. Isn't the best way to guarantee a social union a
0:29:15 > 0:29:19political union? No, I'm saying we can have political independence but
0:29:19 > 0:29:23continue the social union. Whether it is institutional sharing of a
0:29:23 > 0:29:27Monarch, for example, or the great family advertise. Jeremy, we will
0:29:27 > 0:29:30be even able to watch you on Newsnight after Scotland is
0:29:30 > 0:29:34independent. You can only watch part of the programme now? It will
0:29:34 > 0:29:37be better, there is the choice of watching the whole of the programme,
0:29:37 > 0:29:42we will have the alternative choice of a whole Scottish problem. Will
0:29:42 > 0:29:46you pay the license fee? We will watch it on the same basis as the
0:29:46 > 0:29:50Irish Republic. They don't pay? will pay for BBC programmes in the
0:29:50 > 0:29:55same way as we will contribute to buy anything else we choose to
0:29:55 > 0:29:59watch. I assure you, you shall be a star in an independent Scotland.
0:29:59 > 0:30:03You won't be paying the license fee? We will have a license fee to
0:30:03 > 0:30:08set up a Scottish broadcasting channel, I'm quite certain we will
0:30:08 > 0:30:13be wanting to purchase from the BBC a range of series. Do you see us as
0:30:13 > 0:30:18some sort of charity? I can't believe you have said that. I'm
0:30:18 > 0:30:21sure in the BBC charity begins at home. Alex Salmond thank you.
0:30:21 > 0:30:25pleasure. Now to part two of the series on
0:30:25 > 0:30:29China. Not for them news of public debt, nor any debate about capping
0:30:29 > 0:30:33benefits, come to that, not much debate of any kind, and not many
0:30:33 > 0:30:37benefits either. The rest of the world is woefully ignorant about
0:30:37 > 0:30:40its most heavily populated country. It is not just that it has a
0:30:40 > 0:30:43communist Government, and a supposed million millionaires. It
0:30:43 > 0:30:48is also something we just can't get. What is it like to live in state
0:30:48 > 0:30:58where you can have more than your parents ever dreamed of, yet not be
0:30:58 > 0:31:04
0:31:04 > 0:31:13free to change the Government? To get rich is glorious.
0:31:13 > 0:31:18The words of Dun Chao Ping the words of the communist leader are
0:31:18 > 0:31:22born out across the country's capital. But can you really have
0:31:22 > 0:31:26economic freedom without political freedom. It is the crucial
0:31:26 > 0:31:31contradiction. The secret of China's international success isn't
0:31:31 > 0:31:35a secret at all. It is just that it can make things more cheaply than
0:31:36 > 0:31:45anywhere else. But the secret of China's political arrangements at
0:31:46 > 0:31:46
0:31:46 > 0:31:51home. That is all together much more complicated.
0:31:51 > 0:31:55Chinese Emperors used to claim that the just ruler had a mandate from
0:31:55 > 0:32:04heaven. Today, China's communist rulers claim their mandate to
0:32:04 > 0:32:09govern comes from delivering social justice. Chen Yongjiang is the sort
0:32:09 > 0:32:14of person, a peasant, that they set out to help. It has been five years
0:32:14 > 0:32:18of rising ambitions and rising prosperity for Mr Chen, he has
0:32:18 > 0:32:21diversified from vegtables and chickens, to taking tourists along
0:32:21 > 0:32:25the great wall, and feeding and lodging them in his home in the
0:32:25 > 0:32:33valley below. But now he looks to have collided,
0:32:33 > 0:32:37not with heaven or history, but with money. Mr Chen has spent years
0:32:37 > 0:32:43building up his business. Now the local authorities want to sell his
0:32:43 > 0:32:51land to a developer, who plans to build a great wall theme park,
0:32:51 > 0:32:55where his house now stands. TRANSLATION: The decision has been
0:32:55 > 0:33:02made, the project will go ahead. It is very sad. This is a beautiful
0:33:02 > 0:33:09place, and none of us want to leave. Mr Chen has no say in the matter.
0:33:09 > 0:33:14His ambition, destined to become a necessary sacrifice. A few miles
0:33:14 > 0:33:21down the valley is a taste of what's to come. Under the shadow of
0:33:21 > 0:33:24the wall, they are already planting de ress, instead of apple trees.
0:33:24 > 0:33:29When it comes to projects like these, it is never quite clear
0:33:29 > 0:33:39where the state ends, and private enterprise begins. Either way, the
0:33:39 > 0:33:44
0:33:44 > 0:33:53little guy is the loser. Once a year, China's vast economy
0:33:53 > 0:34:03briefly pauses. Hundreds of millions of factory and office
0:34:03 > 0:34:06
0:34:06 > 0:34:10workers head home to spend new year with their families. At Beijing
0:34:10 > 0:34:14South Railway Station, designed by the British architect, Terry
0:34:14 > 0:34:24Farrell, one doesn't want to hold people up. Even if the place does
0:34:24 > 0:34:29
0:34:29 > 0:34:39have a waiting room that can hold 10,000. We have hit the buffers on
0:34:39 > 0:34:40
0:34:40 > 0:34:44my mandarin. 11.25? Which class? 1St, 2nd or business. What is the
0:34:44 > 0:34:54difference in price. We will go 1st class. If I have enough money.
0:34:54 > 0:34:58
0:34:58 > 0:35:02That's cheap. Maybe there's no purity in poverty,
0:35:02 > 0:35:08the social contract here is pretty obvious. You're allowed to make
0:35:08 > 0:35:12money, but you're not really allowed to dissent. Of the enormous
0:35:12 > 0:35:18number of things made in the workshop of the world, this
0:35:18 > 0:35:25relationship between Government and citizen is surely one of the very,
0:35:25 > 0:35:29very oddest. A communist regime that feeds its citizens by
0:35:29 > 0:35:38satisfying western consumerist capitalism. But maybe, if you have
0:35:38 > 0:35:45enough to eat, not having a vote doesn't really matter. The reading
0:35:45 > 0:35:51on the commute from Beijing to Tianjin is more Financial Times
0:35:51 > 0:35:58than Das Capital these days. In this people's Republic, people want
0:35:58 > 0:36:07to get seriously rich. To help them, the Government provides a train
0:36:07 > 0:36:12capable of 200 miles an hour. Tan, once one of the resented
0:36:12 > 0:36:22treaty ports where westerners were allowed to trade in China is being
0:36:22 > 0:36:22
0:36:22 > 0:36:26rebuilt, day by day, on the fruits of foreign trade. Freedom appears
0:36:26 > 0:36:30to be the freedom to make money. No small matter in a country where so
0:36:31 > 0:36:37many are still so poor. Getting rich is very, very important. We
0:36:37 > 0:36:44are getting richer. Almost everybody is getting their life
0:36:44 > 0:36:48better. This is very important, we can afford better lifestyles, we
0:36:48 > 0:36:53can more things. We can have more choices. People want to make more
0:36:53 > 0:37:03money so they can do more things, as you say, but there is still lots
0:37:03 > 0:37:08of things they can't say? That's true isn't it? Yes.
0:37:08 > 0:37:14Among the gloofpl so many skyscraper, Tianjin is -- the gloom
0:37:14 > 0:37:19of so many skyscrapers, Tianjin is one of the few to retain its past.
0:37:19 > 0:37:25It was founded by a British Methodist missionary in the 1860s.
0:37:25 > 0:37:28There is no love for the Colonial powers, and the imperial dynasty
0:37:28 > 0:37:33that accommodated them, except in the travel and tourism trade. We
0:37:33 > 0:37:43are now in the original hotel, are we? Yes, and you know we walk here,
0:37:43 > 0:37:43
0:37:43 > 0:37:50and all the people say, this is the nicest place in the hotel, the
0:37:50 > 0:37:56Emperor used to dance here very often. Now you are standing here.
0:37:56 > 0:38:03feel lucky already. There was, of course, no freedom whatsoever when
0:38:04 > 0:38:10foreigners did as they pleased in a feeble China. Nowadays, the
0:38:10 > 0:38:16foreigners' bar isn't reserved for foreigners. Soya and her friends
0:38:16 > 0:38:22are the new Chinese middle-class, happier talking about Sex and the
0:38:22 > 0:38:27City, than the little Red Book. Do you feel as free as a woman in
0:38:27 > 0:38:32the west? We feel free. We feel free. We can do the things we want.
0:38:32 > 0:38:37He yeah. No you can't? What do you mean by that? You can't change your
0:38:37 > 0:38:44Government? Why do we have to change our Government. You might
0:38:44 > 0:38:49not want to, don't you want the freedom to do it? Don't you want
0:38:49 > 0:38:52the right to decide the laws under which you live? We have the right
0:38:52 > 0:38:58to decide some things. But you can't get rid of the communist
0:38:58 > 0:39:05party? Why we need to get rid of it? Because you might not like it?
0:39:05 > 0:39:12Why do you have to change it. This is our Government, it raises us,
0:39:12 > 0:39:22and it gives our clothes, schools, food, everything. But maybe the
0:39:22 > 0:39:24
0:39:25 > 0:39:29definition of the freedom you mean, maybe it is different from our's.
0:39:29 > 0:39:35Freedom is a relative term, and Chinese people may well be freer
0:39:35 > 0:39:41than they have ever been. Maybe we worry too much about definitions,
0:39:41 > 0:39:47and maybe the amazing growth of China can continue forever. But if
0:39:47 > 0:39:51it can't, then perhaps things more intangible than the latest
0:39:51 > 0:39:57electronic plaything will come to seem more important. But not for
0:39:57 > 0:40:01now. We are going to hear now from the award-winning statistician and
0:40:01 > 0:40:06academic, Hans Rosling, famous for turning statistics into graphics
0:40:06 > 0:40:13and founder of what he calls a fact tank called Gapminder. Just before
0:40:13 > 0:40:19we ask him to demonstrate some of his unique data on China and the UK.
0:40:19 > 0:40:24This is, -- this is why everyone is talking about him. Here we go,
0:40:24 > 0:40:34first an axis for health, a life expectancy from 25-75 years. Down
0:40:34 > 0:40:40here an axis for wealth, income per person, $400, $4,000 and $40,000.
0:40:40 > 0:40:47Down here is poor and sick, up here is rich and healthy. Now, I'm going
0:40:47 > 0:40:53to show you the world 200 years ago, in 1810. Here come all the
0:40:53 > 0:40:56countries. Europe brown, Asia red, Middle East green, Africa south of
0:40:56 > 0:40:59Sahara blue, and the Americas yellow. The size of the country
0:40:59 > 0:41:04bubble shows the size of the population. Look what is about to
0:41:04 > 0:41:08happen. Here we go again. In my lifetime, former colonies gained
0:41:08 > 0:41:13independence, and then finally they started to get healthier, and
0:41:13 > 0:41:17healthier, and in the 1970s, then countries in Asia, Latin America,
0:41:17 > 0:41:22started to catch up with the western countries. They became the
0:41:22 > 0:41:27emerging economies, some in Africa fold, some Africans were stuck in
0:41:27 > 0:41:31civil war and others hit by HIV. Now we can see the world today in
0:41:31 > 0:41:39the most up-to-date statistics. He's here in the studio now. Give
0:41:39 > 0:41:44us your analysis on China in the UK. I -- China and the UK. I will do it
0:41:44 > 0:41:49between China and the UK. Here is getting healthier and life
0:41:49 > 0:41:56expectancy. The UK was leading the long march out of sickness and
0:41:56 > 0:42:01poverty. China was way behind. Now I stop, here you can see how 1815
0:42:01 > 0:42:05after the Napoleon war, the speed was quite slow, it wasn't happening
0:42:05 > 0:42:09much. China was pushed back in the opium war, and Britain was taking
0:42:09 > 0:42:13off. China remained down here. This is the fantastic rise of health in
0:42:13 > 0:42:22Britain, that was the Spanish flu, and then they come up here, you can
0:42:22 > 0:42:26see into modern time, China starts now to get healthier, Ping goes for
0:42:26 > 0:42:30the pun, decade after decade starting to catch up. To the point
0:42:30 > 0:42:35now where there is almost equality? On the health axis, China has
0:42:35 > 0:42:41reached further. Not on the money access still. China today is where
0:42:41 > 0:42:45you UK was in 1948. What do you conclude for the future? I can make
0:42:45 > 0:42:51it even simple letter here. I will take away the health dimension, and
0:42:51 > 0:43:01then I will show you now on this access income, richer is that way,
0:43:01 > 0:43:05and here in 1800, 1900, 20000 and into the future. I have lined up UK
0:43:05 > 0:43:10and China and Sweden and Japan. In that time you can think of Sweden
0:43:10 > 0:43:13as a more removed but independent Scotland! Down here we are South
0:43:13 > 0:43:19Korea. Look when I drag them into the future, you can see the UK is
0:43:19 > 0:43:24getting richer and richer, but Sweden is closer to Japan than the
0:43:24 > 0:43:29UK. Japan is taking off but the other countries, South Korea and
0:43:29 > 0:43:33China are down there. Only in the last 40 years they start to follow.
0:43:33 > 0:43:37Sweden and Japan has caught up. South Korea is starting, we don't
0:43:37 > 0:43:41even think about China that they would ever do it. But it is not a
0:43:41 > 0:43:46new thing what happens with China, it is down after down that is doing
0:43:46 > 0:43:50this. Sweden, first, then Japan, then South Korea, now China. And I
0:43:50 > 0:43:55do a very simple trajectory, nobody knows about the future. But I think
0:43:55 > 0:43:59our mind set hampers us to see what is most probable. The most probable
0:43:59 > 0:44:05is that China will repeat what the others have done. These were
0:44:05 > 0:44:09trailers, this is the feature film. Within 30-40 years they will reach
0:44:09 > 0:44:13the same level as Britain. Environmental, political, there may
0:44:13 > 0:44:17be many constraints. But this is the course of eye vents. The growth
0:44:17 > 0:44:22is not so -- events, the growth is not so fast up here. Come and sit
0:44:22 > 0:44:25down and we will chew the fat about China. What struck me there last
0:44:25 > 0:44:29week was, you know the assumption here in the west is that they need
0:44:29 > 0:44:33to understand us, they need to learn from us. It struck me as
0:44:33 > 0:44:38being the completely the other way round, really? The first thing is
0:44:38 > 0:44:44there is no west any longer, it is an ethnic identity, is Poland part
0:44:44 > 0:44:48of it, Russia? What is the west? It is a very strange concept. I hear
0:44:48 > 0:44:52you are using it. Really what we have in the world is a continuous
0:44:52 > 0:44:56world, where we have countries at different economic and social and
0:44:56 > 0:45:02political levels and situations. All the way from west Europe or
0:45:02 > 0:45:05Norway, which is leading, down to Congo and Afghanistan. That's a
0:45:05 > 0:45:09very interesting observation. My point was that the assumption is
0:45:09 > 0:45:15that they need to learn from us, and actually it struck me that we
0:45:15 > 0:45:19need to learn from them? It is sad to see that the Chinese communist
0:45:19 > 0:45:23party is more serious about the new energy systems and climate than we
0:45:24 > 0:45:27are in west Europe. We seem to be very short-sighted in our democracy.
0:45:27 > 0:45:32We like the democratic system, we are willing to die for it. But when
0:45:32 > 0:45:36we compare, you know, it doesn't come out that neat. When people in
0:45:36 > 0:45:40Turkey are thinking, you know, and people in India are thinking,
0:45:40 > 0:45:45Europe or China, what is best for us to copy in the coming decade, it
0:45:45 > 0:45:48is not so clear for them. Have you had any thoughts about how
0:45:48 > 0:45:52important it is to people that they have, as those girls in that film,
0:45:52 > 0:45:55they were not bothered about the fact that they had no real
0:45:55 > 0:45:57political freedom, they couldn't change their Government, because
0:45:57 > 0:46:02their standard of living was getting better and better. Have you
0:46:02 > 0:46:06had the chance to think about that? Of course they were bothered. I
0:46:07 > 0:46:11have worked in communist countries, people cannot speak. If they were
0:46:11 > 0:46:15bothered they couldn't tell you, because you would broadcast it.
0:46:15 > 0:46:20They sounded very happy? Watch out for the dictatorship, they can't
0:46:20 > 0:46:24speak freely. On your graph you put a big caveat about freedom of
0:46:24 > 0:46:28expression? Yes. I mean the thing is, the sequence of events is
0:46:28 > 0:46:33different today. Britain started with its institution, with its
0:46:33 > 0:46:37freedom of speech and free press, and so on, then came technology,
0:46:37 > 0:46:41economy, health. Today countries do it in other sequences. I think
0:46:41 > 0:46:45India has an advantage for the future. India? Yes, because they
0:46:45 > 0:46:51have the democratic institutions in place. They have a free press and
0:46:51 > 0:46:55they have a very vivid civil society. So that people say there
0:46:55 > 0:46:59is a very smooth road in China with a big bump ahead. Where as India
0:46:59 > 0:47:02has a bumpy road but no block ahead. Hans Rosling, thank you very much.
0:47:02 > 0:47:12That is all from Newsnight tonight, much more tomorrow, until then,
0:47:12 > 0:47:12
0:47:12 > 0:47:17much more tomorrow, until then, good night.
0:47:17 > 0:47:20Another cloudy day to come tomorrow. It won't be as cold as it was today
0:47:20 > 0:47:23across eastern areas. In fact to the east of the Pennines a few
0:47:23 > 0:47:26breaks in the cloud. A bit of sunshine. For most a cloudy day
0:47:26 > 0:47:29with rain in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Eventually some
0:47:29 > 0:47:33of that rain will trickle into parts of North West England. Down
0:47:33 > 0:47:38the eastern side, most places dry, but grey, but crucially,
0:47:38 > 0:47:41temperatures will be much higher than they were through the day
0:47:41 > 0:47:45today, for some it was struggling at 1-2. The mild air across the
0:47:45 > 0:47:49south west, it will be mild again tomorrow. It is looking pretty grey.
0:47:49 > 0:47:53There will be an increasing wind, gusty that wind on the west coast
0:47:53 > 0:47:57of Wales, with outbreaks of rain trickling here later in the day.
0:47:57 > 0:48:01For Northern Ireland it looks like a pretty soggy afternoon. Again it
0:48:01 > 0:48:05will be blustery. The winds in western Scotland will get very
0:48:05 > 0:48:09gusty indeed, possibly around the Western Isles, touching 60 miles an
0:48:10 > 0:48:15hour. Much of eastern Scotland will stay dry. The wet and windy weather
0:48:15 > 0:48:18swings through. Thursday turns colder with showers. Those showers
0:48:18 > 0:48:21are likely to turn increasingly wintry no Northern Ireland on
0:48:21 > 0:48:25Thursday morning. Further south the showers on Thursday will be of rain.
0:48:25 > 0:48:29There could be hail mixed in at times. There will be bright and
0:48:29 > 0:48:32sunny spells, expect showers on Thursday. Early on there will be