:02:31. > :02:35.The average punter in the UK thinks unless you're making some
:02:35. > :02:40.nanotechnology Stealth bomber you shouldn't be making it in the UK.
:02:41. > :02:43.Whilst there is potential with a seriously high end in engineering
:02:43. > :02:47.and manufacturing, don't underestimate what's possible with
:02:47. > :02:52.something as simple as a bike that we make and there really is
:02:52. > :02:58.potential for many businesses to be exporting more of their products.
:02:58. > :03:02.In many ways this bicycle company is a poster boy for the Government
:03:02. > :03:06.to rebalance the economy towards manufacturing and exporting. The
:03:06. > :03:10.problem is, though, that that transition is proving quite painful
:03:10. > :03:13.for some. That's especially true for many households that are
:03:13. > :03:17.spending a lot more for day-to-day items but whose incomes have been
:03:17. > :03:20.flat lining. That's a pay cut in real terms and the worst fall in
:03:20. > :03:26.living standards in decades, so today's inflation statistics will
:03:26. > :03:32.be welcomed by many of them. They show that prices are still rising,
:03:33. > :03:37.but now at 3.6% - that's still almost twice the 2% target but
:03:37. > :03:42.considerably smaller than last year which peaked in October at 5.2%.
:03:42. > :03:46.There are clubs where people try to keet their budgeting down to �50 a
:03:46. > :03:55.week... But there was some relief in Watford where the Prime Minister
:03:55. > :04:01.was visiting Mum's Net's archrivals, Net Mums. Inflation is coming down.
:04:01. > :04:08.That's good news because inflation is the most important issue to
:04:08. > :04:12.families. Moody's placing England in negative
:04:12. > :04:16.outlook - Moody's said it was a downgrading of the UK economy and
:04:16. > :04:19.its ruling coalition. Moody's achieved a terrific double today of
:04:19. > :04:23.apparently pleasing both the Government and the opposition,
:04:23. > :04:30.which I doubt was what they intended in either case. I'm amazed
:04:30. > :04:32.that the politicians take this so seriously, and have as a policy
:04:32. > :04:38.objective maintaining particular rating, which is something they
:04:38. > :04:43.cannot possibly control. The rating agencies at the moment are somewhat
:04:43. > :04:46.following the market I think rather little market reaction. You've got
:04:46. > :04:53.rating agencies taking different views on different countries as
:04:53. > :04:56.well, so I really think that this should be downgraded in importance.
:04:56. > :05:01.Nonetheless, there is considerable evidence that Britain may have
:05:01. > :05:04.dodged an economic bullet. The services sector, which accounts for
:05:04. > :05:09.almost three-quarters of the entire economy is expanding quite well.
:05:09. > :05:17.Exports are also up. Only yesterday the CBI painted a much more benign
:05:17. > :05:21.picture than it had only three I think we're at a furning point. I
:05:21. > :05:25.think the economy is it a bit stagnant at the moment. That's what
:05:25. > :05:29.the recent quarterly growth figures show, but when you've been
:05:29. > :05:33.declining you need a period of stability before you can start
:05:33. > :05:37.rising again. So the fact that many of the surveys are looking more
:05:37. > :05:41.positive, the fact that the housing market has stopped declining seems
:05:42. > :05:46.to be also at this kind of turn around, indicates to me that
:05:46. > :05:50.probably the next few quarters will look better than the last few.
:05:50. > :05:58.That assumes that the eurozone crisis abates. Even tonight, that
:05:58. > :06:06.was not assured as eurozone finance ministers still said they needed
:06:06. > :06:09.more eassurance from Greece. Back here, we await the quarterly
:06:09. > :06:15.pronouncements of the Bank of England in topbl's inflation report.
:06:15. > :06:23.That could signal that Britain is a few centimetres to being on the
:06:23. > :06:30.right economic track. Even if that means a decade of wobblably Japan-
:06:30. > :06:35.like rough. With me are the Treasury minister, David Gauke and
:06:35. > :06:40.the Shadow Chief Secretary, Chris Leslie Once the strip out the VAT
:06:40. > :06:43.question, it is true that real incomes are still shrinking?
:06:43. > :06:47.fact is we are going through a difficult period. There's no doubt
:06:47. > :06:55.about it and the Government are doing what they can to help. That
:06:55. > :07:01.why we prevented rises in fuel duty, which would have happened next
:07:01. > :07:06.month. And some freezes. But people are still worse off. It has to be
:07:06. > :07:10.said that the fall from 5.2% to 6% is moving in the right direction.
:07:10. > :07:16.The Bank of England is saying that inflation will be down at the 2%
:07:16. > :07:21.target by the end of the year, so that is an improvement, but we
:07:21. > :07:25.recognise it is better. If this is good news, I would hate to think
:07:25. > :07:32.what bad news was. The spin we're getting is that prices are falling
:07:32. > :07:38.and people are better off. And in terms of council tax and fuel,
:07:38. > :07:43.those costs are still extremely high. 3.6%, the cost of living
:07:43. > :07:46.increase is nearly twice what the Chancellor himself is setting. And
:07:46. > :07:50.certainly twice what wage increases are. So real families and
:07:50. > :07:54.households up and down the country are finding it very difficult to
:07:54. > :07:59.make ends meet. We accept, and indeed one of the difficulties the
:07:59. > :08:02.economy has faced over the last 12 months has been high commodity
:08:02. > :08:07.prices. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility highlighted
:08:07. > :08:11.that one of the reasons why growth last year was disappointing was
:08:11. > :08:17.because of high commodity prices. We accept that, it is difficult.
:08:17. > :08:21.But within the constraints we have, we have taken out fuel duty and
:08:21. > :08:26.council tax. Moody's now is interesting, we heard it dismissed
:08:26. > :08:35.there. Some people say you can forget about it. The trouble is the
:08:35. > :08:39.Chancellor has gone on and on about this triple rating. How strong he
:08:39. > :08:45.is because he's managed to secure this, and now this must be a
:08:45. > :08:50.serious defeat, mifpbt it? No, if you look at what Moody's have said,
:08:50. > :08:59.they've praised what the Government is doing, but their concern is
:08:59. > :09:06.there going to be the political will to follow through, and will
:09:06. > :09:15.there be a fiscal grading. And in those circumstances, will it
:09:15. > :09:20.continue? But the this has to be a set back? The fact is the analysis
:09:20. > :09:24.of the credit rating agencies, as would appear to be the markets
:09:24. > :09:30.generally is we have to have a credible plan to get the deficit
:09:30. > :09:34.down and the likes of the IMF are saying we have a credible plan to
:09:34. > :09:38.get the deficit down and in those circumstances, we have low interest
:09:39. > :09:46.rates which is a huge help to businesses and households.
:09:46. > :09:49.there is no comfort for you, is there? I don't think anybody can
:09:49. > :09:53.take comfort in the fact that they're saying that the prospects
:09:54. > :10:02.for growth are weak and weakening. When you think we've been flat
:10:02. > :10:07.lining for a year, that is pretty scary. But they're talking about
:10:07. > :10:12.any further fiscal deterioration. If the Government were controlling
:10:12. > :10:16.borrowing, you could give them credit, but unfortunately it's more
:10:16. > :10:20.than last year. And one of the tests that the Chancellor set for
:10:20. > :10:25.himself on growth, well we know a year ago, they had a big plan for
:10:25. > :10:31.growth in their budget. That hasn't been a success, private sector jobs
:10:31. > :10:39.were supposed to fill the vacancy, we got the unemployment figures, a
:10:39. > :10:43.17-year high. And when you start to look at the relyons on the credit
:10:43. > :10:49.ratings, and even the agencies are abandoning the Government, so the
:10:49. > :10:56.Chancellor is on negative outlook here. By your own standards?
:10:56. > :11:02.big question the country faces is how do we deal with the deficit.
:11:02. > :11:12.You can take our approach that you have to get it down and you have to
:11:12. > :11:15.have credit rating. Or you take the approach that Chris's party has
:11:16. > :11:23.which is keep on borrowing more, it's not a problem and we'll deal
:11:23. > :11:30.with it in the future and what Moody's have highlighted is that is
:11:30. > :11:36.a very, very dangerous thing. growth is crucial to reducing the
:11:36. > :11:42.debt. But you won't do that by borrowing more. If you cut the
:11:42. > :11:49.Future Jobs Fund and refuse to put a bonus tax on the bankers to get
:11:50. > :11:56.the 100,000 youth jobs created, no wopbtd we've got no consumer
:11:56. > :12:01.confidence and growth is slipping' way. How much of this is really in
:12:01. > :12:05.your hands? The European finance ministers meeting is not going to
:12:05. > :12:09.take place tomorrow, for various reasons, something to do with
:12:09. > :12:13.paperwork in Greece. But you're not fully in control of your own
:12:13. > :12:18.destiny, are you? There are international factors that play
:12:18. > :12:24.into the economy and that is why growth has been lower than
:12:24. > :12:28.predicted. It's nothing to do with deficit reduction, it's to do with
:12:28. > :12:31.commodity prices, it's twood the euro prices. But it must be
:12:31. > :12:35.disappointing that the finance ministers can't get it tomorrow to
:12:35. > :12:39.meet? It is, because it is necessary for the euro countries to
:12:39. > :12:43.address it. That's where the responsibility lies. It is
:12:44. > :12:49.disappointing. But what can we do? What can we control? We can control
:12:49. > :12:54.the fact that we have a credible fiscal plan and we set out plans
:12:54. > :13:00.that are praised by the credit agencies. It's not working. That we
:13:00. > :13:05.ensure we keep interest rates low. If we give that up, as Chris argues
:13:05. > :13:09.then I'm afraid we will face a very difficult future. Thank you very
:13:09. > :13:12.much. We've ask three economists to join us and give us their
:13:12. > :13:22.assessment and bring with them their favourite statistic at the
:13:22. > :13:32.moment on the British economy. They are Julie Meyer, founder and CEO
:13:32. > :13:36.
:13:36. > :13:40.are a nadyee Capital; Stephanie Blankenberg, lecturer at SOAS and
:13:40. > :13:46.Megan Green from Roubini Global Economics. Now, what have you
:13:46. > :13:52.brought with you? This is one of the few indicators that have
:13:52. > :13:58.started looking up in December and January and that's the purchasing
:13:58. > :14:03.managers' index. It made me more positive about the UK economy and
:14:03. > :14:08.made me think we may actually avoid a technical recession. But many
:14:08. > :14:16.people won't have heard of it, why is it important? You'll notice
:14:16. > :14:22.there is a line as 50 and anything above 50 shows an expansion in
:14:22. > :14:30.industry. In 2009, for example, we had a massive contraction. And
:14:30. > :14:36.we've just got above the 50 line. So that's an improvement. Is this a
:14:36. > :14:42.reason to become bullish on the UK market, absolutely not, but it may
:14:42. > :14:47.mean the UK will start to avoid a recession. Stephanie, you've been
:14:47. > :14:54.saying the Chancellor should have a plan B. What have you picked for
:14:54. > :15:01.us? I've picked consumer confidence. Which should appear. That's clear.
:15:01. > :15:05.It's going down. I think it is rather clear, unfortunately. So I'm
:15:05. > :15:13.more interested in the cause rather than the effect. In the end,
:15:13. > :15:17.production will go up or down, depending on what people can sell.
:15:17. > :15:25.What does consumer confidence measure? Does it measure the way we
:15:25. > :15:30.think things are going to go? measures people's ordinary economic
:15:30. > :15:36.factors, it measures unemployment and loss of income and overall
:15:36. > :15:46.perceptions of where the economy is going. Julie, you're an
:15:46. > :15:47.
:15:47. > :15:54.entrepreneur, what have you picked for us? Nesta have done some
:15:54. > :15:59.research on 6% of all UK firms. So we're trying to find 20% growth or
:15:59. > :16:02.more. 6% create more than 50% of all net new jobs. So we're
:16:02. > :16:10.concerned about net new jobs and creating the industries of the
:16:10. > :16:20.future so we need to pay attention to the vital 6% of the high-growth
:16:20. > :16:27.
:16:27. > :16:32.countries. For instance, yet, Monti -- Monitorise gave their figures
:16:32. > :16:36.and they're growing. We need thousands of companies. But is that
:16:36. > :16:46.underpinned by the fact that banks are prepared to lend or not lend.
:16:46. > :16:47.
:16:47. > :16:55.That's where it all comes from? is much more important than lending
:16:55. > :17:00.because Monitise got where it is because of exceptional
:17:00. > :17:07.entrepreneurs. How can we get more? Small companies subsidise big
:17:07. > :17:11.companies. Big companies can get out of paying tax and restructure.
:17:12. > :17:16.Small companies are stuck here. If we really believe that the 50%
:17:16. > :17:22.drive the 6% net new jobs, these guys should be paying extremely low
:17:22. > :17:29.taxes. One of the things that most politicians agree with is where is
:17:29. > :17:34.the growth going to come from? How do you get there? The UK is trying
:17:34. > :17:40.to stage its recovery from shifting demand to export and that's where
:17:40. > :17:46.the UK is extremely exposed because 40% of exports are going to the
:17:46. > :17:52.eurozone and that's embroiled in a crisis. So that's a risk for the UK
:17:52. > :17:56.economy. Where do you see growth coming from? I would see it coming
:17:56. > :18:02.through a long-term industrial policy for this economy. The UK for
:18:02. > :18:06.many decades is vulnerable on the side of its external trade and
:18:06. > :18:14.exports and, certainly, as Megan is saying, right now in terms of what
:18:14. > :18:19.is happening in the eurozone. The only long-term view out is a
:18:19. > :18:27.substantial industrial policy that will help precisely in my view the
:18:27. > :18:32.small and mem-sized enterprises, but go beyond it to some extent.
:18:32. > :18:40.The world is not top down any more, it's bottom up. The good news is
:18:40. > :18:45.that the businesses are being set up and are taking off like wildfire.
:18:45. > :18:51.You can dictate tax policy, that's one thing we can control. And we
:18:51. > :18:57.should, if we believe the 6%, we should be making sure that these
:18:57. > :19:02.companies exist in a frinctionless surface. But who is right about
:19:03. > :19:10.cutting too far and too fast, where do you come down on that? It's a
:19:10. > :19:15.fine line to walk. I always thought that the UK's package should mean
:19:15. > :19:22.it bit much later so you have a chance for an economic recovery
:19:22. > :19:29.before they bite. But, as I said, I think we'll avoid a recession, so I
:19:29. > :19:35.don't think it's been catastrophic. So on balance, too far, too fast?
:19:35. > :19:40.That's right. What do you think? think it was wrong from the start.
:19:40. > :19:48.There clearly was a recession because of systemic failure of the
:19:48. > :19:57.private financial sector. So you're saying austerity leads to austerity.
:19:57. > :20:02.It leads to be poverty of most people. I think there is a mis
:20:02. > :20:11.conception that jobs created in the private sector and the public
:20:11. > :20:16.sector are equal. You can only afford 4% of GDP. But this is a
:20:16. > :20:22.luxury we can't afford. So I may want to go shopping at Harrods but
:20:22. > :20:29.I can't afford it, it's not autsyert, it's called living within
:20:29. > :20:39.your means -- it's not austerity it's called living within your
:20:39. > :20:39.
:20:39. > :20:47.means. And what about living with the euro? It's not good for the UK.
:20:47. > :20:54.I don't think it will enraffle now, it think it start next year. Which
:20:54. > :21:00.could give Britain a window to work on. The longer we can buy time on
:21:00. > :21:04.the euro, the better it is for the UK. But there was good news from
:21:04. > :21:12.the United States, January employment figures, things are
:21:12. > :21:19.looking up? Correct, preSicily because they have not adopted
:21:19. > :21:24.austerity policies. I think the Government is a necessity when
:21:24. > :21:32.you're in trouble, because the private sector failed. Where did
:21:32. > :21:36.the housing crisis come from? This came from Clinton in the mid-1990s,
:21:36. > :21:40.Government policy changing and saying every American should own a
:21:40. > :21:46.home. It was Government intervention in the mortgage
:21:46. > :21:50.industry that drove that boubl. not going into that, but this is
:21:50. > :21:57.entirely incorrect. We're continuing with our reports one
:21:57. > :22:03.year after the Arab Spring, tonight with Bahrain. It has not gone away.
:22:03. > :22:10.Protesters, largely from the Shia population have continued to show
:22:10. > :22:16.defiance and anger against the Sunni elite. In an attempt to calm
:22:16. > :22:26.the protests, a former member of Scotland Yard, John Yeates has been
:22:26. > :22:26.
:22:26. > :22:30.called in. Mainly clashes in the tiny kingome
:22:30. > :22:39.of Bahrain. Every night people go out on the streets calling for
:22:39. > :22:45.freedom and for the down fall of the dictators in Bahrain.
:22:45. > :22:49.majority Shia are calling for change in a Sunni rule. Growing
:22:49. > :22:54.sectarian tensions here have the potential to plunge the country and
:22:54. > :22:59.the region into unprecedented violence. Driving through the
:22:59. > :23:03.wealthy heart of Manama, the capital, there are few signs of
:23:03. > :23:08.unrest. It is easy to miss the deep divisions in the society. But in
:23:08. > :23:16.the year I've been away, this country has been torn apart. It's
:23:16. > :23:24.exactly a year to the day since the Arab Spring. Within days there was
:23:24. > :23:28.a bloody response in the capital. The square was cleared but
:23:28. > :23:37.protesters returned. Under intense pressure to stop the revelation,
:23:38. > :23:45.the King brought in the troops. But he appointed a panel of
:23:45. > :23:49.international human rights experts. The head's report galged systematic
:23:49. > :23:55.torture and excessive use of force and the sacking of thousands of
:23:55. > :24:04.workers. Almost all the victims were Shia.
:24:04. > :24:11.And this is why the Government is keen to reassure its allies.
:24:11. > :24:16.Formula One is massive here. Because of the unrest, last year's
:24:16. > :24:21.race was cancelled. 29 Shia employees at Formula One were
:24:21. > :24:25.sacked. This man who runs the Formula One
:24:25. > :24:31.here says mistakes were made here but it is time for the country to
:24:31. > :24:35.move on. These charges were dropped and His Majesty ordered them to be
:24:35. > :24:42.taken back. We opened our arms with full confidence and we welcomed
:24:42. > :24:47.them all back and they are back. But the trades union movement,
:24:47. > :24:52.parolling here outside the Ministry of Labour, disputes the account
:24:52. > :24:59.given by the Formula One chiefs. It says five were not invited back and
:24:59. > :25:03.they were not the only sackings. 3,000 workers lost their jobs.
:25:03. > :25:10.still have more than 1,000 workers dismissed and suspended. All
:25:10. > :25:16.workers, both in private and public sector should be reinstated without
:25:16. > :25:19.any kind of condition and a dignified reinstatement.
:25:19. > :25:26.The country's security forces were heavily criticised in the report
:25:26. > :25:32.but the police are keen to give us their of the story. We were invited
:25:32. > :25:39.to follow an elite unit. They have thrown the gas.
:25:39. > :25:43.police took us to several villages where they encountered makeshift
:25:43. > :25:48.roadblocks and angry young demonstrators. Five police officers
:25:48. > :25:54.and nearly 60 civilians have died since the upridesings began. 12 of
:25:54. > :26:01.the deaths have been attributed to the heavy and inappropriate use of
:26:01. > :26:07.tear gas.. How can we beat them? We just have our shields and the gas
:26:07. > :26:14.and we have flash bangs, that's all what we have here. But this woman
:26:14. > :26:21.in a Shia village tells a different story. This is fire, all the house
:26:22. > :26:27.will be full of gases. She said her mother died after the police threw
:26:27. > :26:33.tear gas into the home of her mother, which she shared with two
:26:33. > :26:39.other families. She was lying here and we tried to cover this area so
:26:39. > :26:44.no smoke would come inside, but no use of this. She already passed
:26:44. > :26:48.away. The police told me if it happened it was an accident. They
:26:48. > :26:51.would not deliberately fire tear gas into a house. Deliberate or
:26:51. > :26:59.otherwise, this incident and others like it have scarred relations
:26:59. > :27:04.between the police and the people. Pictures are all that Amina has
:27:04. > :27:09.left of her 18-year-old son, Mahammed. He was arrested on 25
:27:09. > :27:14.January. A few hours later he was dead. The police say he died of
:27:14. > :27:20.natural causes. His family say it was because he was beaten,
:27:20. > :27:26.something that the police strongly object, but there was no
:27:26. > :27:30.independent autopsy. TRANSLATION: told them I would wait for my son
:27:30. > :27:35.to take him home because he was tired. And the police said they
:27:35. > :27:39.would take him to the hospital. I said I would take him to the
:27:39. > :27:44.hospital, why would you want to take him to the hospital, I'm his
:27:44. > :27:49.mother. He said it is not possible. We would take him to the police
:27:49. > :27:56.hospital and he just told me to go home. I was not expecting it to end
:27:56. > :28:02.in his death, that my son could buy. I've been brought in to add vuz viz
:28:02. > :28:07.the king king. In a surprise career move, John Yeates arrived in
:28:07. > :28:13.Bahrain last month to help reform the police. I think the Government
:28:13. > :28:17.have made excellent progress here in terms of doing some things
:28:17. > :28:22.immediately, but the other issues will take time and you cannot
:28:22. > :28:28.expect wholesale reform to take place in a matter of weeks. Some of
:28:28. > :28:32.this stuff, human rights training for 20,000 police officers is an
:28:32. > :28:38.immense undertaking. I've spoken to people who have told me that this
:28:38. > :28:44.has happened in the last couple of weeks, they've been pick the up and
:28:44. > :28:51.taken to -- picked up and taken to unofficial sites, or not officially
:28:51. > :28:57.recognised, beaten, tortured, they say and I can tell you the sites
:28:57. > :29:04.exactly. Bahrain youth hostel. Municipal buildings, and the racing
:29:04. > :29:08.club. This is happening, they tell me now. So it's present. You're
:29:08. > :29:13.lobbying those things to me now and if those things have happened,
:29:13. > :29:17.there is a proper procedure where they need to make their complaints
:29:17. > :29:24.and it will be addressed and investigated. There's an awful lot,
:29:24. > :29:31.I'm not doubting what you just said, but there is an awful lot of
:29:31. > :29:35.mischief on these social media sites. On a plot of ground that the
:29:35. > :29:39.protesters call Freedom Square, the crowd are demanding that the King
:29:39. > :29:45.step down. The leaders of the main Shia opposition party urge
:29:45. > :29:52.restraint. Many wonder if they can contain the
:29:53. > :29:57.anger. But to understand the depth of that anger, you need to leave
:29:57. > :30:06.behind the glittering towers of Manama and head into poor Shia
:30:06. > :30:11.villages. Communities like Sitra. It's known
:30:11. > :30:16.among activists as the isles of murderers, because many who died in
:30:16. > :30:19.the uprising have come from here. If you want to understand the deep
:30:19. > :30:25.divisions that exist in this country, you come to a place like
:30:25. > :30:32.this. This is a poor Shia community, the streets are strewn with rubbish,
:30:32. > :30:42.the walls are plastered with anti- Government slogans. This one says,
:30:42. > :30:47.
:30:47. > :30:53."Down with King hopld." Zainab's father was jailed for campaigning.
:30:53. > :30:59.What is sectarian about Bahrain is the Government that is trying to
:30:59. > :31:03.divide and conquer. This revolution is demanding Democrat see and
:31:03. > :31:10.freedom for everyone. But the Government is saying, "Sit down and
:31:10. > :31:17.talk to us" why not? We have done that before, but these are
:31:17. > :31:21.dictators and every time they make promises and break them and we're
:31:21. > :31:27.still suffering from sitting down and talking with them in 2001. And
:31:27. > :31:36.the people want to see change. Friday prayers, the country's most
:31:36. > :31:42.senior cleric calls for a peaceful protest. But his sermons are
:31:42. > :31:52.ratcheting up the tension. "Our souls and blood we sacrifice for
:31:52. > :31:53.
:31:53. > :31:59.you" they chant. Bahraini Shia are seen as the enemy.
:31:59. > :32:09.Falconio is condemned as a country that will turn the country over to
:32:09. > :32:14.Iraq. We're just Bahrainis. We want reforms in Bahrain. We want reforms,
:32:14. > :32:21.but we want the Government to change. We want to live in peace.
:32:21. > :32:27.America is anxious, Bahrain is a strategic defence partner. Unrest
:32:27. > :32:32.here would be a serious threat. United States has considered
:32:32. > :32:35.Bahrain an important ally. This is a region where we have real
:32:35. > :32:40.security concerns. That relationship needs to go forward in
:32:40. > :32:45.a constructive and a positive way. But we also want a stable society
:32:45. > :32:50.here and one where people are functioning freely in the society.
:32:50. > :32:55.I spoke to the country's Justice Minister and asked if the two sides
:32:55. > :33:00.in this conflict can be reconciled? His Majesty already said that the
:33:00. > :33:07.doors are open. Now there are lots of work going on to bring people
:33:07. > :33:14.together. And it is unfortunate, really, why these positive gestures
:33:14. > :33:20.that have always been dissimulated since the beginning of the problem
:33:20. > :33:27.and calls for dialogue have been boycotted and there is even
:33:27. > :33:32.provocation that amounts to a crime of incitement to violence. As night
:33:32. > :33:38.falls, the daily ritual of protest and violence in the villages starts
:33:38. > :33:43.up all over again. The police say they've taken on board the
:33:43. > :33:48.criticisms levelled at them. In one year on, as the anger builds, time
:33:48. > :33:53.is running out for this tiny country sitting on a dangerous
:33:53. > :34:02.sectarian fault line. Tomorrow night, Sue Lloyd Roberts continues
:34:02. > :34:08.our series looking back on the Arab espionage, looking at female
:34:08. > :34:14.genital mutilation in Egypt. Take me to prison if you want to. Take
:34:14. > :34:19.me any where, but I will continue to circumcise girls. I want the
:34:19. > :34:26.money. All that tomorrow. Now, the British way of life, indeed that of
:34:26. > :34:31.all of Europe is threatened by militant secularisation. This is
:34:31. > :34:38.similar to the anti-lipblious fervour from Stalin and Hitler and
:34:38. > :34:47.other tote tall tarrian leaders. These are the views of Baroness
:34:47. > :34:54.Warsi in a trip to Rome. Baroness Warsi is one of Britain's best-
:34:54. > :35:02.known Muslims. But has she got a point. Our sovereign lady the Queen.
:35:02. > :35:08.With the Monarch at the head of the church as Defender of the Faith,
:35:08. > :35:13.Bishops in the House of Lords put the Church in Parliament too. But
:35:13. > :35:21.some see the proimp of secular values, with Christian hoteliers
:35:21. > :35:29.forced to take gay guests, and the wearing of symbols at work. And
:35:29. > :35:34.this prompt ed this from Baroness Warsi tonight. My fear is that
:35:34. > :35:41.we're so afraid of going backwards in history to the days when
:35:41. > :35:47.religion was imposed on people by despotic regimes that we have got
:35:47. > :35:54.to the stage where aggressive sack larynx is being introduced by
:35:54. > :36:01.stealth. Politicians are often reluctant to do God when in office.
:36:01. > :36:07.David Cameron, however, has expressed views by chime with
:36:07. > :36:17.Baroness Warsi's. It's easier for people to believe and practice
:36:17. > :36:18.
:36:18. > :36:23.other faiths when Britain has faith in its Chris ant. Three-quarters of
:36:23. > :36:31.Christians believe religion should not influence public policy and
:36:31. > :36:34.half believe there should be no state religion. So, beyond pomp and
:36:34. > :36:44.nostalgia is Christianity in Britain really in deep trouble.
:36:44. > :36:52.With me is Professor Richard Dawkins, Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali.
:36:52. > :37:02.And Ruth Gledhill. Do you think the Baroness has a point when she talks
:37:02. > :37:02.
:37:02. > :37:08.about people about like you, who are militant secularists? I think
:37:08. > :37:15.that's a bit strong, second yarists include many religious people. Many
:37:15. > :37:19.of the great secularists have been religious all they wanted to do was
:37:19. > :37:28.keep religion out of politics. That religion people are free to
:37:28. > :37:33.practice in their own way, but not impose is on other people. The
:37:33. > :37:40.Founding Fathers of the United States founded it in secularism,
:37:40. > :37:43.because they were mindful of the tyre niece they fled from.
:37:43. > :37:51.that's interesting, because religion is stronger in the United
:37:51. > :37:59.States, because they were founded, it's nothing to do with militant
:37:59. > :38:08.secularism. No, we must distinguish between the Church in state and the
:38:08. > :38:14.Jew dayeo Christianism in the state. I whole tenor of public life in the
:38:14. > :38:19.US is governed by the Jew dayeo Christian..So Do you think the
:38:19. > :38:26.Baroness is broadly right? Yes, because if you start with the Magna
:38:26. > :38:30.Carta and The Bill of Rights and the end of slavery and the former
:38:31. > :38:35.nursing profession. These are all explicitly Christian inspired
:38:35. > :38:40.movements that have given us the kind of life we have today.
:38:40. > :38:45.really don't think these good things that the Bishop has
:38:45. > :38:48.mentioned are Christian inspired. The slave trade? Of course, in
:38:48. > :38:54.historical times everybody was religious so there's no question
:38:54. > :39:02.about it. That's not the point. The point is, it explicitly involves
:39:02. > :39:06.God. The Magna Carta is based on a Christian view of God. Ruth?
:39:06. > :39:11.think militant everything is increasing. And when I started
:39:11. > :39:16.writing about religion for the Times in 1989 everybody predicted
:39:16. > :39:22.it would be a dying subject and past the millennium it would die.
:39:22. > :39:27.But here we are talking about it. And we're seeing a consequence of
:39:27. > :39:31.the growing battle between the atheism, the new atheist, as we
:39:31. > :39:35.call people like Richard Dawkins and the religious leaders of today
:39:35. > :39:38.and everyone is fighting their corner with more and more
:39:39. > :39:43.aggression. One of the interesting things about the Baroness is that
:39:43. > :39:49.she talked about her daughter in Rome and she sent her daughter to a
:39:49. > :39:53.Roman Catholic convent and in a way, people such as Richard Dawkins have
:39:53. > :40:00.provided a service to the faith in that they've brought them together
:40:00. > :40:06.in battle against the atheists. So they've created a new horm knee.
:40:06. > :40:12.But why is the Church not raising this? I have been for several years.
:40:12. > :40:17.I'm very pleased that the Baroness has used the words and many of the
:40:17. > :40:24.sentences I've written about in national papers and indeed on your
:40:24. > :40:29.programme so I welcome what she is saying. But if you feel you're
:40:29. > :40:33.sidelined, the Queen and thousands of church schools, what is marginal
:40:34. > :40:40.about that? What is it you would like that you're not getting?
:40:40. > :40:44.it is the paraphernalia, as it were of establishment does not actually
:40:44. > :40:50.mean that Christian faith is at the centre. I'm not asking for a
:40:50. > :40:54.privileged place for the Church, I think what is most important is the
:40:54. > :41:01.Jew dayeo Christian religion in legislation for instance, when it
:41:01. > :41:07.is about the human person or, indeed, policy making. But recently,
:41:07. > :41:14.didn't a judge say our law was nothing to do with Jew dayeo
:41:14. > :41:17.Christianism. But I thought they were judges of the Crown? Let all
:41:17. > :41:24.the Bishops resign from the House of Lords if the Church is not
:41:24. > :41:28.asking for privileges. That's up to them. My point is that the Jew
:41:28. > :41:34.dayeo Christian religion in the Bible is extremely important today
:41:34. > :41:38.for policy. But it is true with things like abortion and stem cell
:41:38. > :41:44.research that the Jew dayeo Christianism does form a lot of
:41:44. > :41:49.that debate. Absolutely and that's one of the problems. The survey
:41:49. > :41:53.that my foundation has brought out this very day, the people who tick
:41:53. > :41:56.the Christian box in the census, we did it the very week after the
:41:57. > :42:01.census took place. People who recorded themselves as Christian
:42:01. > :42:05.and we found out that not only has the number of Christians dropped
:42:05. > :42:08.since the previous census, but those who still counted themselves
:42:08. > :42:14.as Christians no longer believed in lots and lots of things that the
:42:14. > :42:18.religion is supposed to and in particular, things like abortion,
:42:18. > :42:25.things like assisted euthanasia for the terminally ill. They very, very
:42:25. > :42:30.strongly support, in the opposition to their professed Christianity.
:42:30. > :42:36.Ticking the Christian box, in other words many people are normally
:42:36. > :42:43.Christian but it doesn't mean very much? I think that's always been
:42:43. > :42:48.the case in Britain. Christianity is a very broad Church and people
:42:48. > :42:53.have often taken the core beliefs, but not all the doctrine of the
:42:53. > :42:57.Bible. Very few people are fundamentalists, as sometimes in
:42:57. > :43:03.the things you've done, you think all people who call themselves
:43:03. > :43:09.Christians are fundamentalist, whereas they're not and as your own
:43:09. > :43:12.survey pointed out, 64% didn't even believe in God, who called
:43:12. > :43:17.themselves Christians. That's exactly the point because we've
:43:17. > :43:23.found that the people who call themselves Christians, 40% said,
:43:23. > :43:28."Oh, by Christian means I try to be a good person." But there's nothing
:43:28. > :43:32.wrong with that. Of course not. But if you accept that those people are
:43:32. > :43:37.to be labelled Christian just because they want to be a good
:43:37. > :43:42.person. But define themselves as that. Let me finish. If you accept
:43:42. > :43:47.that people who call themselves Christian on such Nablus grounds as
:43:47. > :43:53.that, that's thrutly fine but what you cannot then do is hijack these
:43:53. > :43:58.people and say "these are Christians therefore we Bishops and
:43:58. > :44:03.priests can count these people as though they voted for us in
:44:03. > :44:09.implementing policy." You cannot have it both ways. But I'm amazed
:44:09. > :44:17.at what your survey shows. 44% of people believe that Jesus Christ is
:44:17. > :44:23.the Son of God and the saviour offer the world. 62% believe in
:44:23. > :44:26.heaven. These are your figures. What kind of commonality are you
:44:26. > :44:33.talking about. But those are percentages of the people who said
:44:33. > :44:40.they were Christian. Which is 70% or something. If our survey is
:44:40. > :44:49.right it has dropped to 54%. will see. A look at tomorrow
:44:49. > :44:58.morning's front pages. The Guardian says the new NHS Bill could harm
:44:58. > :45:04.patient care. And the Times says MPs talk lands
:45:04. > :45:14.visit. They will inspect British defences and the Greece rescue
:45:14. > :45:21.package is in doubt. And the Independent has a report on hunger.
:45:21. > :45:28.And the Dalely Mail has cheap booze to be outlawed. This week is the
:45:28. > :45:38.50th anniversary of the first shoot'em up game space wars,
:45:38. > :46:08.
:46:08. > :46:14.created by four students at MIT. It Good evening. It stays cloudy and
:46:14. > :46:19.breezy overnight and tomorrow will be little changed. We'll see
:46:19. > :46:25.brightness develop through the day, the best of the brighter skies to
:46:25. > :46:30.the south-east and northern England. The coasts of Cumbria, Lancashire
:46:30. > :46:34.and Merseyside and Yorkshire it may remain grey and there will an
:46:34. > :46:41.threat of drizzle in the breeze throughout. But most of the country
:46:41. > :46:46.will remain dry but again, closer to the coasts of Cornwall and
:46:46. > :46:50.western and north parts of Wales the westerly breeze will feed in
:46:50. > :46:56.some light rain and drizzle. The best of the brightness in Northern
:46:56. > :47:03.Ireland with be in Omar and Down. The Western Isles will hold on to
:47:03. > :47:08.the cloudy conditions throughout. Wednesday into Thursday and we
:47:08. > :47:13.start to see changes across Northern Ireland and Scotland.
:47:13. > :47:18.Thicker cloud will bring outbreaks of rain. But England and Wales will