:00:13. > :00:18.They said the single currency would bring Europe together. Instead for
:00:18. > :00:23.the past two years it has threatened to tear it aparts. And
:00:23. > :00:29.nowhere does the dream of Europe look more thread bear this week
:00:29. > :00:35.than in Greece. Paul Mason watches up -- as they clean up after the
:00:35. > :00:43.last riots and brace themselves for the next one. What is it like to
:00:43. > :00:49.live inside of a failed experiment no-one knows how to fix. Greece
:00:49. > :00:55.maybe faces a decade of austerity. Few believe the plan will work. If
:00:55. > :01:02.the centre can't hold, what or who will take its place? I don't think
:01:02. > :01:05.it will be non-violent government from the left. It's going to be a
:01:05. > :01:09.civil war. Two writers and two economists talk about the way
:01:09. > :01:15.Greece is now. How it has been changed by the crisis and what the
:01:15. > :01:20.Greek tragedy is doing to hopes of ever closer integration in Europe.
:01:20. > :01:30.Also tonight, the Home Secretary is so keen to deport Abu Qatada she's
:01:30. > :01:32.
:01:32. > :01:37.to fly to Jordan personally to negotiate. Is there any point?
:01:37. > :01:43.Good evening. World stock markets rose to their highest level since
:01:43. > :01:49.the summer today on the hopes a much anticipated Greek debt deal
:01:49. > :01:54.may get off the ground. The arrangement was investors who
:01:54. > :02:02.brought -- bought debt after the crisis would get a third of their
:02:02. > :02:09.money back, rather than none. In Greece another human whraigs --
:02:09. > :02:16.humiliation as thieves got through the gates of the Olympia museum to
:02:16. > :02:21.escape with acparticular quits. Paul Mason got inside, closer, to
:02:21. > :02:27.see what the Greek tragedy feels like from the inside. We have to
:02:27. > :02:33.deal with the latest. What about this deal. A single moment when
:02:33. > :02:39.they managed to steal the acparticularies, it feels less safe
:02:39. > :02:45.than Cairo. In the last five days there has been a major wobble by
:02:45. > :02:49.the European Union, and the Germans and the Dutch. The question of
:02:49. > :02:54.issue does the European Union give Greece �130 billion new money and
:02:54. > :02:59.write off the debts. It's being presented we need more conditions
:02:59. > :03:03.to make sure they do it. They listed the conditions, whatever
:03:03. > :03:10.happens in the elections they will implement the plan. They have to
:03:10. > :03:19.come up with 325 million, further cuts in the minimum wage, and they
:03:19. > :03:27.have done it. While they were doing t the tone has changed above all
:03:27. > :03:35.from Germany and the Netherlands. Mr Shueblshueblshuebl -- Wolfgang
:03:35. > :03:43.Schaeuble saying even if they do it, they better default. There's only
:03:43. > :03:48.two weeks to do it. March 20th is the cut-off date Greece goes bust
:03:48. > :03:53.unless it can borrow a new 14 billion loan. That tone change, the
:03:53. > :03:57.manifesto, the people in Athens can feel it. They have been reacting to
:03:58. > :04:04.it. It nearly did fall apart yesterday. It has come back on
:04:04. > :04:08.track. The markets have risen. feels like there's a lot to do in a
:04:08. > :04:11.short time. Let's assume the many pieces come together, when it comes
:04:11. > :04:16.to the narrow question in the next few weeks. What is the plan after
:04:16. > :04:23.that, do you get the sense the Greeks or anybody else has a plan
:04:23. > :04:30.for what happens next? What it would need any economics textbook
:04:30. > :04:36.of the right and centre or left would say you have to codge bien
:04:36. > :04:41.the austerity with structural reconstruction. You need
:04:42. > :04:46.politicians to do it. If Brussels is going to design it, they are say
:04:47. > :04:51."yes" to that "no" to that, if Brussels is going to decide it and
:04:51. > :04:57.foist it on you, you need a decisive leadership. They haven't
:04:57. > :05:00.got one now. They have a coalition government that has fallen apart.
:05:00. > :05:05.Mr Wolfgang Schaeuble said they will not get a government. It will
:05:05. > :05:10.be better if they have no politicians running Greece. There's
:05:10. > :05:20.a third force, the Greek people. They increasingly want a say in it
:05:20. > :05:22.
:05:22. > :05:32.all. There's going to be a civil war.
:05:32. > :05:33.
:05:33. > :05:43.There is a revolution against the government.
:05:43. > :05:50.People say if they continue of this, we have to guy Kalashnikov. The EU
:05:50. > :05:53.demanded austerity. The Greek Parliament voted for. It The
:05:53. > :05:58.streets erupted. In the aftermath Greeks were stunned. It's not the
:05:58. > :06:05.scale of the violence and destruction but the scale of the
:06:05. > :06:10.unsefrt. Nobody knows how the economy can be rebuilt and the
:06:10. > :06:17.politics are fragmenting. In a normal crisis a decisive vote in
:06:17. > :06:23.Parliament, a massive riot and the torching of 17 buildings might
:06:23. > :06:27.bring catharsis. This is no normal crisis. Greece faces maybe a decade
:06:27. > :06:32.of austerity. Few among the political political class believe
:06:32. > :06:39.the plan will work. It seems to many Greeks the more austerity and
:06:39. > :06:45.chaos they inflict on themselves, the more the big powers of Europe
:06:45. > :06:49.ask for. In the gritty streets this port
:06:50. > :06:54.district they know what it means when you make one in five people
:06:54. > :07:00.unemployed and cut health spending and slash the minimum wage.
:07:00. > :07:05.This clinic run by volunteer doctors and nurses was originally
:07:05. > :07:09.set up to treat migrants. Now one in three patients are Greeks. Like
:07:09. > :07:16.this woman, a cleaner who has lost her job. TRANSLATION: I'm here to
:07:16. > :07:21.get food and vaccinations for my children. Why can't you access the
:07:21. > :07:28.Greek main health service? We're not insured. My husband doesn't
:07:28. > :07:31.work and I don't work. -- work. In the latest round of austerity the
:07:31. > :07:37.government has locked -- knocked another billion off the medicine
:07:37. > :07:42.budget. Incomes are collapsing. If you are poor you have the same
:07:42. > :07:47.problems regardless if you come from Africa or Asia or a Greek
:07:47. > :07:52.citizen. For our organisation it's a whole new phenomenon to have
:07:52. > :07:57.Greeks. If the past these people could struggle for their daily life.
:07:57. > :08:00.If they had problems, but they could manage it. Now the burden has
:08:00. > :08:06.become more. It's more difficult for them. If in the past it was
:08:06. > :08:11.difficult for them to find a job now it's impossible. I'm afraid
:08:11. > :08:19.that with the crisis, the phenomenon will become worse.
:08:19. > :08:25.the crisis deepens, the weakest and the poorest suffer. Nowhere more so
:08:25. > :08:32.than those not supposed to be in Greece at all. This the ferry port
:08:32. > :08:38.that links Greece to Western Europe. On the seafront hundreds of illegal
:08:38. > :08:44.migrants live in this shattered factory. I'm taken in by an
:08:44. > :08:51.activity by a local NGO. The migrants got here because the
:08:51. > :08:57.government cut backs have made the Greek border forous. How is it to
:08:57. > :09:01.get interest Greece? Too easy. The border is not closed. It's open.
:09:01. > :09:09.They survive on charity. They receive no assistance at all from
:09:09. > :09:15.the Greek state. As the economy has collapsed so too is sympathy for
:09:15. > :09:22.the migrants. This is not Europe. I used to live London. This no look
:09:22. > :09:27.like Europe. The police can hit you. The people can swear you for no
:09:27. > :09:34.reason. The people hit us like animal. This man a graduate from da
:09:34. > :09:40.four is headed for London. He can't wait to see the back of Greece. How
:09:40. > :09:46.long have you been in this factory? I have six months and three months
:09:46. > :09:51.in the train. Because the police forced us to the leave the train.
:09:51. > :09:57.We came to the abandoned factory. I have six months here. Do you think
:09:57. > :10:03.the economic crisis has made the situation for migrants worse?
:10:03. > :10:08.we're going to the markets... give you food and some money.
:10:08. > :10:13.There's less now? Now the situation is changing because of the economic
:10:13. > :10:19.crisis. They drink from a pipe in the ground. Some have died from
:10:19. > :10:24.fires lit to keep one. It's shocking to see it in a continent
:10:24. > :10:29.that once prided into on a social model. The crisis has turned so
:10:29. > :10:34.much of Greece upside down. For Greek youth, the situation too
:10:35. > :10:40.looks dire. 50% of those under 24 are unemployed. Among them the
:10:40. > :10:45.extremes of politics are growing. In a bar run by one of the far left
:10:45. > :10:52.groups I meet the people who have got together to feed and clothe the
:10:52. > :10:57.migrants. None is a member of a left party. All intend to vote for
:10:57. > :11:02.one. All have been participants in disorderly protest. There's no
:11:02. > :11:07.future for us. Generally there's no future. We can't dream or live.
:11:07. > :11:12.This is a disaster. I've been hearing young Greek people say that
:11:12. > :11:17.to me for three years. What do you do about it? We're fighting and
:11:17. > :11:22.trying to convince people to make them understand that the crisis is
:11:22. > :11:27.a result of the capitalist system. Do you seriously think there could
:11:27. > :11:31.be a left wing government in Greece? I don't think it will a
:11:31. > :11:37.non-violent government from the left. It will be a civil war.
:11:37. > :11:44.carpenter, the teacher, the engineer, the social worker...
:11:44. > :11:48.These are professional people. The ideas they are expousing have
:11:48. > :11:54.become commonplace. What about work? If there's no work there's a
:11:54. > :12:03.revolution against the government. The Greek left, the communists, and
:12:03. > :12:08.the Ecologists have a combined poll rating of 43.5%. This country
:12:08. > :12:14.always had a strong left wing. Now it's strong enough to have their
:12:14. > :12:21.own TV studios and if there's an election a previously unthinkable
:12:21. > :12:27.prospect. We're talking about a new bloc of forces which have their
:12:27. > :12:32.internal differences but on the other hand agree on the rejection
:12:32. > :12:39.of the memory dumb and the suffering policy of austerity.
:12:40. > :12:43.you think this forces could propose a government? They must put asides
:12:43. > :12:51.their differences and after the next election yes form a new block
:12:51. > :12:59.of power. In truth the left is probably too splintered to attempt
:12:59. > :13:05.to form a government. But the despair call for some to call for
:13:05. > :13:11.elections to postponed. If we have elections so sure, we will have it
:13:11. > :13:18.in a few months and we can kiss the country and possibly the euro
:13:18. > :13:24.goodbye. The backbone of the Greek capital is the small form. On here,
:13:24. > :13:30.the business plan is just to survive. Now they face new taxes,
:13:30. > :13:36.endemic corruption, rising crime and the owner detects a nostalgia
:13:36. > :13:40.among these peers for the days of military rule. Old people will be
:13:40. > :13:49.thinking about the military government. For us it's finished.
:13:49. > :13:54.But they have one right, one right, they did stole even one penny.
:13:55. > :13:59.didn't steal a penny? Even one of those which is still alive he lives
:13:59. > :14:04.in one room. Places like this should be the bedrock of support
:14:04. > :14:10.for the centre right. They're not. I'm talking always to my children.
:14:10. > :14:19.I say to my children, do not nothing but you don't go just for
:14:19. > :14:28.vote or go for vote, just say you're are bastards. Just in 10,000
:14:28. > :14:34.we come out of Europe, that the Greek people... Spoil your vote.
:14:34. > :14:40.You don't trust any of them? No-one. Do you think democracy will
:14:40. > :14:48.survive? We like to believe it will survive. We like to believe 6789 --
:14:48. > :14:53.believe. F but the people say if they continue of this we have to
:14:53. > :14:59.buy Kalashnikov. There are still days when the sun shines and the
:14:59. > :15:03.old lifestyle rekindles and people forget their worries. For the
:15:03. > :15:09.political class that has tried to guide Greece through the mess
:15:09. > :15:17.there's deep concern. If we're not seriously looking at the
:15:17. > :15:24.repercussions we may end up Russia of the early 90. The very, very
:15:24. > :15:30.high poverty line. Russia in the mid90's had a poverty line higher
:15:30. > :15:35.than in the communist period. it had crooks running the country.
:15:35. > :15:44.It had crooks running the country. Whatever happens next week, those
:15:44. > :15:49.remain the stakes. And they are high. I'm joined now by Lord Lamont
:15:49. > :15:56.former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Will Hutton and Maria Margaronis
:15:56. > :16:01.who was in Athens last week and the author Louis De Bernieres who has
:16:01. > :16:06.described his relationship with the country as one of love and
:16:06. > :16:14.difficulty exach ration and pleasure. You were in Greece
:16:14. > :16:20.recently. Watching the film does it chime with the feeling you had
:16:21. > :16:27.there? Completely. What you can't get from the film is how pervasive
:16:27. > :16:36.the feeling is. If you walk through the formerly wealthy areas are
:16:36. > :16:41.closed or having sales of 50%. You see elderly Greeks looking for
:16:41. > :16:48.something to eat in the streets. There are junkies shooting up.
:16:48. > :16:54.There are the migrants with their scrap metal to sell. The thing that
:16:54. > :17:04.wasn't in the film the migrants can't leave Greece. The borders to
:17:04. > :17:08.exit are closed for them. They have to asking for - ask for asylum. It
:17:08. > :17:12.has caused incredible social tepblgss, and you don't feel how it
:17:12. > :17:17.gets under your skin. How keen even more middle class people though
:17:17. > :17:23.they may have taken a 30% salary cut in the public sector or may
:17:23. > :17:29.feel in danger of losing their jobs in the private sector, 60,000
:17:29. > :17:37.businesses have closed since the summer, live all the time with the
:17:37. > :17:42.uncertainty, are we going to default or not. People -- many have
:17:42. > :17:50.stopped watching the news, thing was the loss of the centre
:17:50. > :17:56.ground in politics, and what I was saying telling his children not to
:17:56. > :18:01.vote for anybody, to spoil their ballots. What does it mean for
:18:01. > :18:07.Greece. For decades Greece was polarised politically between left
:18:07. > :18:10.and right. In the last ten years it seemed a centre was developing. It
:18:11. > :18:17.looks to me the terrible economic conditions is probably going to
:18:17. > :18:22.force the people from the centre to the left. I think People
:18:22. > :18:29.unestimated at the beginning of the crisis that it's a fragile
:18:29. > :18:38.democracy. There are deep splits in Greek society. The splits of the
:18:38. > :18:42.civil war have never healed. There were 30 years when the left were
:18:42. > :18:48.essentially outlawed. Plane returned in the form of the
:18:48. > :18:54.Socialist Party. Both the main political parties keep their people
:18:54. > :19:00.happy through the client system. Distributed money for votes. Now
:19:00. > :19:04.people are moving to the left. I thought the gentlemen was
:19:05. > :19:13.optimistic making a left block. The Communist Party will never work
:19:13. > :19:17.with anybody else. There's a movement of the far right, a street
:19:17. > :19:21.fighting fascist party is on the verge of getting representation in
:19:21. > :19:25.Parliament. There was a historical parallel mentioned in the film of
:19:25. > :19:30.Russia in the 90's, and the mayhem you had there and what happened
:19:30. > :19:36.politically when the old system had fallen apart. You were Chancellor
:19:36. > :19:42.of of the Exchequer in some of that time. Do you think it's a relevant
:19:42. > :19:47.parallel what happened in the former Soviet Union? Not really,
:19:48. > :19:52.the transition from communist to a free market economy was something
:19:52. > :19:57.totally different. This is a tragic situation. The root cause is Greece
:19:57. > :20:04.should never have been allowed in the euro in the first place. There
:20:04. > :20:08.are no easy choices. No soft option. If one is taking a medium term view
:20:08. > :20:11.my hunch is Greece would be better off recognising the reality and
:20:11. > :20:17.getting out of the euro. That will pose all sorts of problems. It will
:20:17. > :20:23.be the better option for this reason: Even if by some miracle and
:20:23. > :20:29.it would be a miracle Greece achieved everything asked of it it
:20:29. > :20:33.will still only get down to a level of debt higher than that of Italy
:20:33. > :20:42.in the year 2020 and they would be asked in 2020 for a continuation of
:20:42. > :20:48.this. Frankly I think that's utterly impractical. Can they say
:20:48. > :20:55.in? It's a 64,000 euro question. They have forked out a lot more
:20:55. > :21:03.than that. If they leave it will be a cataclysmic event. The minute
:21:03. > :21:08.Greece would leave it will be a run on Greek banks. That's obvious. Any
:21:08. > :21:13.Portuguese citizen, and Irish citizen, and maybe Spanish citizens
:21:13. > :21:20.would take the same view. There will be bank deposits across the
:21:20. > :21:27.softer parts of the eurozone. There will be a flight to the triple A
:21:27. > :21:31.countries. Germany in particular. It would be beyond the capacity of
:21:31. > :21:35.the European Central Bank to finance. You will get massive
:21:35. > :21:40.write-downs. And a domino effects. And one of the countries would
:21:40. > :21:45.severely affected would be us. You're talking about the effect
:21:45. > :21:51.outside, or Greeks is it worse than what they are going flu now?
:21:51. > :22:01.Greece it would be hyperinflation. And the great hyperinflations, in
:22:01. > :22:01.
:22:02. > :22:10.Germany in the 1920's, in China in 1940's are always followed by cats
:22:10. > :22:15.milk -- cats clis milk political events. Bloody awful in and out.
:22:15. > :22:22.Isn't it starting to look worse? It's impossible for them to keep
:22:22. > :22:26.going on this austerity for something like 12 years. Unr
:22:26. > :22:32.utterly unthinkable. What skp will says it will have repercussions in
:22:32. > :22:36.other parts of the eurozone. It's notable the German government is
:22:36. > :22:43.changing its attitude. Mr Schaeuble seems to be more of the view it
:22:43. > :22:49.will be better if Greece gets out. Preparations are being made. Fire
:22:49. > :22:54.walls are put around Portugal and Spain. The ECB can do a lot. When
:22:54. > :22:58.it comes to the people of Greece, leaving the euro would be difficult
:22:58. > :23:05.for them. The parallel is what happened to Argentina when it broke
:23:05. > :23:12.its link with the clar. -- dollar. You had a very, very uncomfortable
:23:12. > :23:17.ferred -- period they were better and they are benefitting today.
:23:17. > :23:21.is it the same thing than a currency peg or did it mean
:23:21. > :23:26.something more than that for the Greeks? Joining the European Union
:23:26. > :23:34.for the Greeks was a right of package. It's saying we're grown up
:23:34. > :23:39.and one of the big boys and equals to the European nations -- rite of
:23:39. > :23:44.passage. They haven't got the European Union they wanted. It's
:23:44. > :23:48.been an enormous disappointment. Far more fraught and -- than they
:23:48. > :23:55.expected. If the Greeks left the euro they could charge their own
:23:55. > :24:02.interest rates to suit their own economy. And they could devalue the
:24:02. > :24:08.drachma when they have to. When I was there in the last year or, so
:24:08. > :24:15.people wanted to stay. People want two things. People don't want to
:24:15. > :24:22.leave... Although the last poll said 48% want to leave the euro.
:24:22. > :24:28.Fundamentally Greeks want to say in Europe but don't want the austerity
:24:28. > :24:33.measures. We're talking as they they have the only opbgss. The way
:24:33. > :24:37.things play out it seems to be. But we have to think of the Europe we
:24:37. > :24:44.want. Someone who believes firmly in the European project, are you
:24:44. > :24:49.not worried all the associations with European integration, we need
:24:49. > :24:55.more European integration, if we will make the eurozone work, all of
:24:55. > :25:02.this has gone against this. People associate it with university. Don't
:25:02. > :25:08.you worry about what it does? Angela Merkel will cough up the
:25:08. > :25:13.money on Monday. I think that's what the markets are saying. It
:25:13. > :25:20.will come in trafrpblgz. The left in Greece haven't got an
:25:20. > :25:24.alternative programme. For the next month or so it will hold. Who can
:25:24. > :25:32.tell. Once you have got some kind of settlement with Greece, you have
:25:32. > :25:40.the Europeans have got to start talking about growth and employment.
:25:40. > :25:45.What is happening in France with Allond ahead in the French polls,
:25:45. > :25:50.and determined not to have this kind of austerity and trying to
:25:50. > :25:55.define a fresh economic policy for Europe is going to be the big story.
:25:55. > :26:01.In 20 years' time what is Greece going to look like, and the
:26:01. > :26:07.European Union? There's no way to know. I talk to friends in Greece
:26:08. > :26:14.and what -- say what is going to happen next. They have no idea. I
:26:14. > :26:23.think your point of -- of Europe is a good one. And not have
:26:23. > :26:27.unemployment now. The problem is larger than Greece. The mistake in
:26:27. > :26:35.debate is equating the euro with Europe. I think Europe is something
:26:35. > :26:42.separate from the euro. You can easily redefine the contures of the
:26:42. > :26:47.eurozone and maintain Europe. When Mrs Merkel says the euro is Europe,
:26:47. > :26:52.I think that's not the reality. For Germans it's tied up with their
:26:52. > :26:56.history and identity. It would be possible to have the eurozone with
:26:56. > :27:01.a narrower group of countries and operating better. I think it will
:27:01. > :27:07.be better for everyone in Europe. Do you think it was doomed. Do you
:27:07. > :27:12.think they overreached themselves and they have to step back. I agree
:27:12. > :27:22.they weren't eligible to come into the euro in the first place. Their
:27:22. > :27:24.
:27:25. > :27:29.political culture was too corrupt. And what Maria... Was rife. I don't
:27:29. > :27:35.think you can put together incompatible countrys and economies
:27:35. > :27:40.and run them if they are the same. It's not a question of political
:27:40. > :27:48.culture but economic development. Greece emerged from a dictatorship
:27:48. > :27:54.in 19... They had ra lot to fix. When Greece started to
:27:54. > :27:58.industrialise, it hit globalisation and the oil crisis. The textile
:27:58. > :28:04.factories moved to Bulgaria and elsewhere. There are a lot of other
:28:04. > :28:10.reasons why Greece is in trouble. The political system bears blame
:28:10. > :28:19.too. In a minute we will be looking at what is going to happen to Abu
:28:19. > :28:29.Qatada. First to Martha in Glasgow. We are ranging far and wide tonight.
:28:29. > :28:34.
:28:34. > :28:44.New York -- Extremely loud and incredibly close, and Lucien frued
:28:44. > :28:44.
:28:44. > :28:52.and the many worlds of Martin Skrbgs corsese. Theresa May says
:28:53. > :28:59.she will travel to Jordan to try to strike a deal over Abu Qatada. Mrs
:28:59. > :29:06.May said she would continue where James Brokenshire left off in his
:29:06. > :29:11.talks this week. James Brokenshire is coming back. Why is she heading
:29:11. > :29:20.off there? What will she achieve. To continue the work she has done.
:29:20. > :29:25.The stumbling block, the reason the Strasbourg court won't allow his
:29:25. > :29:30.deportation is they don't believe evidence obtained by torture won't
:29:30. > :29:36.be used. Brokenshire tried to get an undertaking that would be the
:29:36. > :29:43.case. He has Gott a sufficient undertaking. Theresa May has gone
:29:43. > :29:50.there to get a further undertaking. It is difficult. It is in the words
:29:50. > :30:00.of some Jordanians to debase themselves in the face of the court
:30:00. > :30:06.of Strasbourg, where they say they don't use these strategies.
:30:06. > :30:11.there any chance at all we're going to see Abu Qatada headed on a
:30:11. > :30:17.plane? That would be the dream scenario in terms of the Home
:30:17. > :30:20.Office. There's another scenario. Even if they get the undertakings
:30:20. > :30:26.that would staff the judges in Strasbourg it will take a year to
:30:26. > :30:31.get rid of him. They are focused on making sure they can get him back
:30:31. > :30:37.into prison if there's a realistic chance of him being deported. They
:30:37. > :30:47.can then go back to the judge and there's a realistic chance please
:30:47. > :30:49.
:30:49. > :30:55.put him back in prison. One paper, more about mrbd -- Murdoch. That's