:00:14. > :00:18.A year or so ago, now it is back to the drawing board, the Government
:00:18. > :00:22.decides how and when to reform the child benefits system.
:00:22. > :00:26.Don't call the midwife, call the accountant or pollster, next year
:00:26. > :00:29.benefit won't be given to parents who pay the higher rate of tax. Can
:00:29. > :00:33.the Government unpick the plan without looking ridiculous?
:00:33. > :00:36.Call this an election? In Russia we go in search of
:00:36. > :00:41.electoral fraud. We have just come to a street where
:00:41. > :00:45.we have been told a bus will be waiting to take local health
:00:45. > :00:49.workers to vote for Putin. They have apparently been told that if
:00:49. > :00:54.they don't get on the bus, they will risk losing their jobs.
:00:54. > :00:58.The former Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, thinks President Putin is
:00:58. > :01:01.an autocrat, but are we stuck with him.
:01:02. > :01:05.Would America really help Israel attack Iran. For them you are the
:01:05. > :01:10.great Satan, we are the little Satan, for them we are you, and you
:01:10. > :01:17.are us. We will explain why Obama wants
:01:17. > :01:24.Israel to pipe down a bit. The writer, China Mieville, takes a
:01:24. > :01:34.very unmagical mystery tour through the Olympic legacy I think we are
:01:34. > :01:34.
:01:34. > :01:39.facing economic difficulties Surely it can't have caught them by
:01:39. > :01:42.surprise, given it was announced years ago, and yet it has clearly
:01:42. > :01:45.done so. Someone has blundered, what seemed a straight forward
:01:45. > :01:48.reform to the system of child benefit, and indeed is a terribly
:01:48. > :01:53.simple change, has got the Government running about like
:01:53. > :01:56.children, when a fight kicks off in the playground. Horror confronts
:01:56. > :01:59.resolutions, self-interest faces public interest. Before we talk
:01:59. > :02:05.about how the Government invented this problem for themselves, we
:02:05. > :02:10.report. What could you buy for �20.30 a
:02:10. > :02:15.week, that is child benefit for one child. Well, you could get 120 fish
:02:15. > :02:19.fingers, or 40 tins of premium brand baked beans, or 112 nappies,
:02:19. > :02:22.or, given the Government doesn't care or ask what you spend it on,
:02:22. > :02:25.all this curry! When the new Government came in,
:02:25. > :02:29.they decided that what with the state of the public finances and
:02:29. > :02:34.all, treating a lot of comparatively well off people to
:02:34. > :02:37.the cost of a curry every week, wasn't, perhaps, the best use of
:02:38. > :02:44.limited resources, plus, when the Chancellor announced this policy in
:02:44. > :02:49.the autumn of 2010, he was trying to send a political message as well.
:02:49. > :02:54.The coalition wasn't afraid to take money from the better off.
:02:54. > :02:58.This was supposed to make the slogan, "we're all in this
:02:58. > :03:02.together", ring true. It is very difficult to justify taxing people
:03:02. > :03:06.on low incomes to pay for the child benefit of those earning so much
:03:06. > :03:12.more than them. These days we have really got to focus the resources
:03:12. > :03:16.on where they are most needed. We have got to be tough, but fair. And
:03:17. > :03:22.that's why we will withdraw child benefit from households with a
:03:22. > :03:27.higher rate taxpayer. The conference didn't exactly cheer
:03:27. > :03:30.the announcement at the time, now more and more Conservatives are
:03:30. > :03:33.worried, not so much the principle but the practicalities. It was
:03:33. > :03:38.something done very quickly before our 2010 conference, when people
:03:38. > :03:43.have looked at it, and we have had the Treasury and IFS in more detail,
:03:43. > :03:46.we see it doesn't really make sense, and there is a lot of unintended
:03:46. > :03:49.consequences. It is better not to do it and raise the money in a
:03:49. > :03:52.better way. There are two main problems with
:03:52. > :03:58.the way the Government has decided to withdraw child benefit from
:03:58. > :04:04.higher rate tax-payers. The first is the cliff-edge, imagine a parent
:04:04. > :04:11.of three earning �42,470, just under the higher rate threshold.
:04:11. > :04:16.They get �2,669 in child benefit every year. Imagine they get a tiny
:04:16. > :04:22.pay rise, just �1, that takes them over the threshold and all the
:04:22. > :04:26.child benefit goes. The next is a related problem of perceived
:04:26. > :04:32.unfairness, a two-person household earning under the threshold, can
:04:32. > :04:36.bring in �84,950 between them and still get child benefit. While a
:04:36. > :04:41.single earner on slightly more than half that, loses all of their's.
:04:41. > :04:48.The Government is looking at ways of softening the blow. When you
:04:48. > :04:51.create the cut-offs you create anomolies, one earner doesn't get
:04:51. > :04:55.child benefits, another family with two earners earning slightly less
:04:55. > :05:00.will get it. That is what we have said we are prepared to look at.
:05:00. > :05:06.The Prime Minister was visiting a Tesco store today to adapt their
:05:06. > :05:11.slogan to this issue, the slogan may be "every little cut hurts",
:05:11. > :05:14.but this cut is hardly little. The solutions are either expensive,
:05:14. > :05:18.complex, or expensive and complex, that is the problem for the
:05:18. > :05:21.Government. They would have to devise a new means test based on
:05:21. > :05:25.joint income, or abolish child benefit, and move the whole thing
:05:25. > :05:29.into tax credits and do the means testing that way, as we do at the
:05:29. > :05:35.moment. The big problem, that is also a problem with the current
:05:35. > :05:38.policy, is they don't know who is partnered to who. Meaning it it is
:05:38. > :05:42.sometimes difficult to identify who you should be taking the child
:05:42. > :05:45.benefit back from. Are you the run over 10 peace process Prime
:05:46. > :05:50.Minister? The nightmare for the current Government is the mess the
:05:50. > :05:54.last Government got into when it abolished the 10p tax rate, it had
:05:54. > :05:57.to spend an extra �2.7 billion sorting out the problems.
:05:57. > :06:04.Politically some believe keeping the child benefit policy could be
:06:04. > :06:09.far more expensive. The guys on the cusp of a 40% tax barrier should be
:06:10. > :06:13.core Tory voters, the striveers, who are not particularly rich, they
:06:13. > :06:16.are managing more or less to balance out the family life, it is
:06:16. > :06:20.not a tremendous amount of money if you have two or three kids and a
:06:20. > :06:23.mortgage to pay off. These are the people who should be natural
:06:23. > :06:30.Conservatives. It would be rather odd if David Cameron were to punish
:06:30. > :06:34.them, you have to answer the question, who are your people? If
:06:34. > :06:39.you are a party loader, who are you trying to appeal to, I would
:06:39. > :06:43.imagine those in that catagory would be a Tory target zone. If
:06:43. > :06:47.they feel the pain, before anyone else, it could cost David Cameron a
:06:47. > :06:50.lot of votes. The Treasury today was pretty hardline, insisting
:06:50. > :06:53.higher rate tax-payers will lose their child benefit, that is
:06:53. > :06:58.whatever they spend it on. Number Ten was sounding a bit more
:06:58. > :07:01.conciliatory, saying they will look at how the changes are implemented.
:07:01. > :07:06.The expectation then, that some sort of solution will be there in
:07:06. > :07:09.time for the budget. With us now are Alison Garnham,
:07:09. > :07:15.chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, and Peter
:07:15. > :07:18.Lilley, the Conservative MP and former Social Security Secretary.
:07:18. > :07:22.Child Poverty Action Group, this is nothing to do with poverty is it?
:07:22. > :07:26.It has a lot to do with poverty. People on the higher rate of income
:07:26. > :07:30.tax? Child benefit is the only place in the tax system where the
:07:30. > :07:33.cost of children is recognised, those apply to everybody. Low
:07:33. > :07:38.income families are suffering because child benefit is frozen.
:07:38. > :07:43.That is another issue? Yep. We are talking here specifically about
:07:43. > :07:48.cutting certain people out of it. Yes. How is it anything to do with
:07:48. > :07:53.poverty when it only effects higher rate income tax-payers? It has
:07:53. > :07:58.everything to do with poverty, child benefit is the clichest
:07:58. > :08:02.incentive to work in the benefits system. Mean the cleverest means
:08:02. > :08:05.testing system you come up with it doesn't do it as well as child
:08:05. > :08:08.benefit. By removing the higher earners, it says you will tax
:08:08. > :08:12.people more because they have children. That is not fair. If the
:08:12. > :08:15.argument is better off people can pay more, do that through
:08:15. > :08:23.progressive taxation. You are penalising people for having
:08:23. > :08:29.children? If you take this away from them? Alison is right, in a
:08:29. > :08:33.sense, child benefit is a logical place in the system that replaced
:08:33. > :08:37.Child Tax Credits. I couldn't find way of doing it when I was in
:08:37. > :08:41.Treasury that didn't have cliff- edges and apparent injustices so I
:08:41. > :08:45.didn't do it. I didn't do it because I didn't face a �100
:08:45. > :08:49.billion plus deficit, now we do. We have to take tough decisions that
:08:49. > :08:55.lead to rough justice, or even rough injustice. It would be very
:08:55. > :09:00.odd not to do anything affected benefits going to the middle and
:09:00. > :09:03.upper range income taxpayers, when, all the other cuts fall on those in
:09:03. > :09:09.the lower half of the spectrum. you arguing there should be no cuts
:09:09. > :09:14.at all, regardless of the mess we are in checkically? I'm not saying
:09:14. > :09:18.-- economically? I'm not saying no cuts in the system. I'm arguing it
:09:18. > :09:22.makes more sense to use progressive taxation to money off better-off
:09:22. > :09:25.families, rather than just off families with children. Don't you
:09:25. > :09:28.think there is something stupid paying a benefit to people that are
:09:28. > :09:32.sufficiently wealthy they pay higher rates of tax? It was a
:09:32. > :09:36.benefit created out of tax allowances, that go back to 1798,
:09:36. > :09:40.and family allowance, the reason it was turned into a benefit is
:09:40. > :09:44.because tax allowances benefit the better off more, child benefit
:09:44. > :09:46.equalised that and made it the same for everyone. We have a tax system
:09:46. > :09:50.that recognises things like donations to charity and all kinds
:09:50. > :09:55.of other things. For some people, if the change goes ahead, it won't
:09:55. > :10:02.recognise your biggest cost, which is your children. The logic of your
:10:02. > :10:06.position, Peter Lilley, is, the economic circumstances toughen the
:10:06. > :10:10.sinews, tough it out? In the best of all possible worlds we wouldn't
:10:10. > :10:13.do t Alison is right, this isn't the best of all possible worlds, it
:10:13. > :10:18.is very difficult to introduce reforms and cuts and changes,
:10:18. > :10:21.without affecting those on the top income tax rate as well. I think
:10:21. > :10:25.the Government would look very foolish if it backed off it
:10:25. > :10:30.entirely. If it can find ways, which I couldn't find, I looked
:10:30. > :10:35.repeatedly, of doing away with some of these ano mam lease, or at least
:10:35. > :10:40.minimising -- anomolies, or at least minimising them, maybe they
:10:40. > :10:48.are cleverer than me, I couldn't find them I looked for five years.
:10:48. > :10:52.Any kinds of means testing is enormously expensence, how will the
:10:52. > :10:58.Government pay for that? expensive, how will the Government
:10:58. > :11:02.pay for that? It is very difficult to do it without injustice, but in
:11:02. > :11:06.these economic circumstances we can't avoid doing painful things,
:11:07. > :11:11.at least in the crisis and we are back in some kind of balances. If
:11:11. > :11:14.we are back in the best worlds we can return to the system that
:11:14. > :11:19.Alison defends now and I did in the past. What about the argument that
:11:19. > :11:23.by applying a benefit to everybody, and whatever sector of society they
:11:23. > :11:29.happen to find themselves, there is something, it does something to
:11:30. > :11:35.society, it makes it more socially cohesive and coherent. Of course.
:11:35. > :11:38.know you guys think that? It is a national treasure sure, it values
:11:38. > :11:42.all children, and popular. What do you think about the argument?
:11:42. > :11:45.don't think that is the reason for doing it other having the child
:11:45. > :11:49.benefit, it is not to make society feel cohesive, it is to recognise
:11:49. > :11:54.the cost of having children, if not in the tax system the benefits
:11:54. > :11:58.system. You do recognise that children are expensive? That is why
:11:58. > :12:06.it exists, and you keeping child benefit for those on the basic rate
:12:06. > :12:12.of tax, but you are saying, sadly, regretably, we can't do so in these
:12:12. > :12:19.economic circumstances, for those earning over �40,000 so so.
:12:19. > :12:23.Do you recognise the -- or so. Do you recognise the benefits
:12:23. > :12:28.system has to get smaller. We can't afford the welfare state as big as
:12:28. > :12:33.it is? I don't think that is true. Your objection is an ideolgical
:12:33. > :12:36.objection to any kind of cut? any kind of cut. This is one of the
:12:36. > :12:40.cornerstones of our welfare state, and one of the most successful
:12:40. > :12:44.parts of our welfare state, it works and hits nearly 100% of its
:12:45. > :12:48.target, that can't be said of means-tested benefits. What do you
:12:48. > :12:53.say to someone concerned about low pay, to the person earning �35,000
:12:53. > :12:57.a year, that they should pay their taxes in order that someone earning
:12:57. > :13:00.over �42,000 a year can get a benefit for having children?
:13:00. > :13:03.they pay their taxes for all kinds of things that well off people
:13:03. > :13:08.receive. Like health service and educational services. I think that
:13:08. > :13:14.is a Big bit of a silly argument, really. -- a bit of a silly
:13:14. > :13:19.argument, really. That puts you in your place, Paxman. I thought you
:13:19. > :13:25.would have a written response to it! You pay benefits to people who
:13:25. > :13:32.are in need, the argument is that need is not evenly distributed
:13:32. > :13:35.across all income sectors? But one of the effects of costs of children,
:13:35. > :13:39.that families with children fall lower down the income distribution
:13:39. > :13:43.than those without children. What it does is redistribute from those
:13:43. > :13:48.without to people with children. It is targeted in a different way, it
:13:48. > :13:53.is not income targeting, but hugely successful, it hits nearly 100% of
:13:53. > :13:56.its target, that can't be said with any of the means-tested benefits.
:13:56. > :13:59.You don't think there is any alternative? I don't think there is
:13:59. > :14:01.in these economic circumstances, there is no way of doing it without
:14:01. > :14:06.the rough edges. I have letters from people saying, there is a
:14:06. > :14:10.simple way of doing it, but all their simple solutions don't work.
:14:10. > :14:14.So we are going to have to take the pain, and do some things that will
:14:14. > :14:19.be very unpopular with a group of people, with whom I have every sim
:14:19. > :14:21.though, and who are natural support -- sympathy, who are natural
:14:21. > :14:28.supporters. Thank you very much. Barely 24
:14:28. > :14:31.hours after Vladimir Putin claimed he won a third term as Russian
:14:31. > :14:39.president in an open and honest battle, thousands of protestors
:14:39. > :14:46.have gathered in Moscow to protest about apparent irregularities in
:14:46. > :14:49.the election. We're in Moscow, what has happened tonight? Here in
:14:49. > :14:53.Moscow tonight, the opposition's first attempt to try to set up a
:14:53. > :14:58.permanent protest in the centre of the city, against the results of
:14:58. > :15:02.the elections has already ended in failure. After the main body of
:15:02. > :15:06.people left the protest meeting you were talking about. Those who
:15:06. > :15:12.stayed were fairly roughly dispersed by police, and several,
:15:12. > :15:17.including some of the most best known activists, including the
:15:17. > :15:21.anti-corruption campaigner, Alexei Navalny, were detained, bundled in
:15:21. > :15:27.police cars, Navalny was later released. It is a sign that now he
:15:27. > :15:31.has declared his victory, Putin's patience with dissent will start to
:15:31. > :15:36.wear thin. But I don't think this new protest movement will die down
:15:36. > :15:41.completely, in the ten days I have been here, I have felt a new spirit
:15:41. > :15:45.in the air of dissidence and defiance. It is not a majority, it
:15:45. > :15:49.is still a minority. If Putin wants to stay in power, he won't be able
:15:49. > :15:53.to deal with this opposition by repression alone.
:15:53. > :16:01.Over the Moscow river they streamed this evening, from a distance it
:16:01. > :16:07.looked almost like a revolution. Up close the opposition rally
:16:07. > :16:11.wasn't as big as expect, but the message was clear, Putin is a thief.
:16:11. > :16:15.They want him out, eventhough he has just won a third presidential
:16:15. > :16:19.term, with an official tally of 64% of the vote.
:16:19. > :16:23.These people don't represent the whole of Russia, they don't even
:16:23. > :16:29.claim to. Most would accept that Vladimir Putin is the most popular
:16:29. > :16:33.politician in the country. But what this crowd wants, is a Russia ruled
:16:33. > :16:40.by law, and the results of the election have made them all the
:16:40. > :16:46.more determined to achieve that. They say yesterday's result was
:16:46. > :16:52.stolen. First of all, this is not an election, this is a special
:16:52. > :16:56.operation, how Putin can keep power in the Kremlin. There are three
:16:56. > :17:00.stages of fallscation, which Putin organised -- falsification, which
:17:00. > :17:04.Putin organised in this country, first was the selection of the
:17:04. > :17:08.candidate, the opposition was not in the least, because according to
:17:08. > :17:13.Putin's rules, it is strictly impossible to be in the least
:17:13. > :17:20.without the per-- the list without permission from Putin. Then it is
:17:20. > :17:23.propaganda, and the third point is falsification during calculation.
:17:23. > :17:27.In southern Russia yesterday, we joined an observer from an
:17:27. > :17:32.independent legal group, patrolling the city for signs of violations.
:17:32. > :17:36.We have just come to a street where we have been told a bus will be
:17:36. > :17:40.waiting to take local health workers all together to vote for
:17:40. > :17:44.Putin. They have apparently been told that if they don't get on the
:17:44. > :17:49.bus and go together, they will risk losing their jobs.
:17:49. > :17:57.Sure enough, we find a bus pulled up outside the health department.
:17:57. > :18:07.Documents of some kind are handed over. Then, the employees start to
:18:07. > :18:11.
:18:11. > :18:15.get on. The bus sets off, we pursue it for
:18:15. > :18:25.half an hour as it drives from one side of the city to another. Then
:18:25. > :18:29.it stops on the corner, at the very edge of town. The voters set off on
:18:29. > :18:33.foot, but why are they all going into such a far away polling
:18:33. > :18:40.station, where they aren't normally registered?
:18:40. > :18:45.The driver can't give any explanation.
:18:45. > :18:53.TRANSLATION: I wasn't driving any voters around, what voters?
:18:53. > :19:03.brought them here to vote? TRANSLATION: Who? The people in
:19:03. > :19:06.
:19:06. > :19:10.this bus? Which organisation asked you to come?
:19:10. > :19:17.So why was he so reluctant to talk to us. We saw him take more than
:19:18. > :19:22.one bus load to the same place. TRANSLATION: What we saw with the
:19:22. > :19:26.bus, it was state employees being forced to go with absentee ballots
:19:26. > :19:31.to another polling station. It is very strange, to drive people from
:19:31. > :19:35.one end of town to the other, to vote in a different district, to
:19:35. > :19:41.where they live. It is done because it is harder to monitor polling
:19:41. > :19:46.stations on the edge of town, so it is much easier to rig the result.
:19:46. > :19:51.This observer from an opposition party, who is spending all day here,
:19:51. > :19:57.has seen several such coachloads arrive. TRANSLATION: To have so
:19:57. > :20:01.many people not registered here, using absentee ballots, to vote in
:20:01. > :20:06.one small polling station, of course, that is suspicious.
:20:07. > :20:11.The fine array of snacks on the polling station, can't be the
:20:11. > :20:17.reason they have come so far. This official has seen a unusual number
:20:17. > :20:21.of absentee ballots, she says it makes it impossible to know if the
:20:21. > :20:28.same person has voted more than once. They can't prove whether that
:20:28. > :20:32.happened here. Here and all over Russia there have been many reports
:20:32. > :20:36.of it. The Russians say these elections are as transparent as
:20:36. > :20:41.anywhere in the world. There are cameras, machines scanning and
:20:41. > :20:47.counting every vote as it comes in, and yet, even so, the allegations
:20:47. > :20:51.of rigging continue. Among those angriest, are the
:20:51. > :20:58.communists. Their candidate gained almost 20% of the vote, they have
:20:58. > :21:01.refused to accept the result. Here before the election this
:21:01. > :21:06.distributor told me that many people would vote for Putin out of
:21:06. > :21:10.fear. TRANSLATION: I live in a village,
:21:10. > :21:13.and people from the administration are going around and demanding
:21:13. > :21:18.everyone votes for Putin, and threatening to take away their
:21:18. > :21:23.social security if they don't. In the countryside it is hard to go
:21:23. > :21:25.against the authorities. Much of this land belongs to a huge
:21:25. > :21:29.agricultural concern, that was built up and is still partly
:21:29. > :21:34.controlled by the family of the regional governor.
:21:34. > :21:40.Political and economic power here are intertwineed under capitalism,
:21:40. > :21:43.just as they were under communism. People feel they could lose their
:21:43. > :21:48.livelihoods if they vote the wrong way. This man says he had little
:21:48. > :21:55.option but to rent his land to the governor's family firm. He's a
:21:55. > :21:59.communist, but he says almost everyone else here votes Putin.
:21:59. > :22:02.TRANSLATION: Authority is authority, and authority won't let anyone else
:22:03. > :22:07.through in any circumstances, because there are no laws in our
:22:07. > :22:11.country that wo allow a candidate to beat authority. -- would allow a
:22:11. > :22:21.candidate to beat authority. the governor denies any abuse of
:22:21. > :22:22.
:22:22. > :22:28.power, or any rigging of the vote. TRANSLATION: They can't say white
:22:28. > :22:32.is black, they can't say the elections weren't fair when they
:22:32. > :22:37.weren't, but electors have signed off saying how many voted for Putin
:22:37. > :22:40.and communists and so on. If it does happen it will be a crowd of
:22:41. > :22:44.oppositionists who want to rock the boat at any price. It will show all
:22:44. > :22:54.the slogans about unfair elections were just a cover, a pretext for
:22:54. > :22:57.creating chaos in the country. Yesterday, as Putin tearfully
:22:57. > :23:01.accepted his victory, in front of tens of thousands of cheering
:23:01. > :23:05.supporters, he took the same uncompromising line towards the
:23:05. > :23:10.opposition. Tonight, protestors who stayed
:23:10. > :23:15.behind in central Moscow after the main rally were uncermoniously
:23:15. > :23:19.dispersed by the police. Several well known activists were detained.
:23:19. > :23:23.It looks as though the Kremlin's brief tolerance of protest might
:23:23. > :23:27.already be coming to an end. With us now to discuss Vladimir Putin's
:23:27. > :23:31.victory and what it means and what happens next, is the former Labour
:23:31. > :23:38.Foreign Secretary, David Miliband. What is he like to deal with?
:23:38. > :23:46.cold, he's motionless when he sits in a room, and very definitive in
:23:46. > :23:51.the sentences that he uters. like a western politician? No, you
:23:51. > :23:53.see he's learning tricks from the rally he has just done. The British
:23:53. > :23:57.relationship has always been a particularly difficult one in the
:23:57. > :24:02.last 20 years, they think we are a declining power, and we think they
:24:02. > :24:07.are a declining power, that is a bad recipe in any relationship.
:24:08. > :24:11.Both could be slightly right? is an element of truth in both
:24:11. > :24:16.allegations. The thing he has never believed is we in the west would
:24:16. > :24:19.like a confident, diversified economy, and a growing Russia. He's
:24:19. > :24:23.absolutely convinced that we're actually trying to do him down,
:24:23. > :24:26.partly because of the experience of the 1990s. The most tragic thing is
:24:26. > :24:30.when he says Hillary Clinton is paying all these people to protest
:24:30. > :24:34.in the streets. That is absolute nonsense. Do you think he genuinely
:24:34. > :24:38.believes that? I think you should never underestimate leaders a
:24:38. > :24:43.bubble to come to believe their own propaganda. There was a chink of
:24:43. > :24:46.light in what he wrote in the Washington Post last month. He said,
:24:46. > :24:51.he was boasting that Russia is a richer, more educated society, and
:24:51. > :24:56.there are the seeds of his own downfall. This more educated Russia,
:24:56. > :25:01.especially in the cities, in Moscow and St Petersburg, is what is
:25:01. > :25:05.rebelling against him. You saw those pictures from Moscow tonight,
:25:05. > :25:09.that did not look like mass protest movement? People are living in fear,
:25:09. > :25:14.you have heard that. It was a coronation organised to entrench
:25:14. > :25:19.power. However, 45 million Russians use the Internet, which is pretty
:25:19. > :25:23.open in Russia, regularly, frequently, it is a very active
:25:23. > :25:28.internet society. You have a much greater flow of information than
:25:28. > :25:34.ever before. And you have this real movement on Putin at the moment, a
:25:35. > :25:38.pinser, on the one hand political openness, on the other the business
:25:38. > :25:44.class looking at the clampdown and abuse of law, knowing it is not
:25:44. > :25:48.good for business. You are not suggesting there is any likelihood
:25:48. > :25:52.of him to be toppled before the end of his term? Someone like him isn't
:25:52. > :25:55.going to give away power lightly. Six months ago, the idea he
:25:55. > :25:59.wouldn't have got the two terms that he thinks he's renegotiated
:25:59. > :26:03.through his four years as Prime Minister, no-one would have
:26:03. > :26:07.believed he wouldn't have got a second term. I think there is at
:26:07. > :26:11.least a 50% chance he won't get a second term. Why not? Because the
:26:11. > :26:15.forces for openness are very, very strong in politics, and in business,
:26:15. > :26:18.the idea that you can just abuse power is actually going to lead to
:26:18. > :26:22.real problems in the Russian economy. That is the pinser
:26:22. > :26:26.movement under which he's almost dammed if he does clampdown and
:26:26. > :26:29.dammed if he doesn't. To go back to your point about relations between
:26:29. > :26:33.this country and Russia, I saw David Cameron sent him a letter
:26:33. > :26:38.tonight saying he was looking forward to overcoming the obstacles
:26:38. > :26:42.between our two countries. Fat chance, eh? Pretty slim chance. The
:26:42. > :26:46.thing for us is to make sure this doesn't just become a bilateral
:26:46. > :26:51.spat. The only hope for us to really engage with the Russians is
:26:51. > :26:54.to unify across Europe on issues like energy, and to unify with
:26:54. > :27:00.members of the UN on the bigger issues, particularly the Chinese.
:27:00. > :27:05.That is the key to make sure even if Putin chooses the route of
:27:05. > :27:09.clampdown at home, he becomes a better partner abroad. We will look
:27:09. > :27:14.at what is happening in Syria, where President Assad, the Syrian
:27:14. > :27:18.dictator, whom Russia has gone out of its way to introtebgt from the
:27:18. > :27:23.international forces, seems to be unleashing his thugs on the people.
:27:23. > :27:27.Refugees are told the BBC horrific Tories of murder and torture, from
:27:27. > :27:31.Homs. John Cain said tonight that time
:27:32. > :27:36.was running out, -- John McCain cane said tonight time was running
:27:36. > :27:41.out, and became the most senior figure to call for protection and
:27:41. > :27:45.cover for the Free Syrian Army. United States should lead an
:27:45. > :27:48.international effort, to protect key population centres in Syria,
:27:48. > :27:53.especially in the north through air strikes on Assad's forces. To be
:27:53. > :27:58.clear, this will require the United States to suppress enemy air
:27:58. > :28:04.defences in at least part of the country. The ultimate goal of air
:28:04. > :28:08.strikes should be to establish and defend safe havens in Syria.
:28:08. > :28:15.Especially in the north. In which opposition forces can organise and
:28:15. > :28:20.plan their political and military activities against Assad. David
:28:20. > :28:25.Miliband is still here. What about this idea of air strikes, or some
:28:25. > :28:28.sort of intervention against Assad? Senator McCain cane is basically
:28:28. > :28:31.saying the American Government should declare war on the Syrian
:28:31. > :28:37.Government. It has to be seen in that light. I think that the
:28:37. > :28:40.dangers in that are just obvious. First of all, any notion that you
:28:40. > :28:44.have an international coalition, including the Arab world,
:28:44. > :28:48.supporting action in Syria, gone, there would be real danger you
:28:48. > :28:52.would get Syria-Israel configuration coming in as well.
:28:52. > :28:58.You referred to horror stories coming out, these are unspeakable
:28:58. > :29:02.coims being committed there. You have 12-year-old -- crimes being
:29:02. > :29:07.committed there. You have 12-year- old kids talking about their
:29:07. > :29:10.parents' throats being cut in front of them. It is becoming a sectarian
:29:10. > :29:15.conflict. The sense of urgency is right, American air strikes would
:29:15. > :29:18.make it worse. It is troubling for the rest of the world, when we know
:29:18. > :29:23.they saw the west and other countries intervening in Libya to
:29:23. > :29:28.support a popular revolt here. Some of them felt they might expect the
:29:28. > :29:31.same in Syria, and they didn't get it? It is worse than troubling. But
:29:31. > :29:34.the two cases are very, very different. The test, there are
:29:34. > :29:40.three tests for any military intervention, is there a
:29:40. > :29:43.humanitarian need, clearly, yes, in Libya and Syria. Is there a
:29:43. > :29:47.military plan? I'm not in Government any more, but I haven't
:29:47. > :29:54.seen anything outside Government to suggest a military plan. And
:29:54. > :29:58.thirdly the strategic consequences, you don't get the ticks in those
:29:59. > :30:04.boxes. We could be looking at something worse than veb nieceia?
:30:04. > :30:09.You could be -- Srebrenica? could be looking at something three
:30:09. > :30:13.times worse than what Assad's father did in Hama in 1982. The key
:30:14. > :30:19.to this is back to Putin. If that is the case how many people did he
:30:19. > :30:24.kill in Hama? Between 10,000-20,000. That is a terrible thing? It is
:30:24. > :30:29.unspeakable. There is nothing we can do? I don't agree with that.
:30:29. > :30:32.The truth is Putin's hold in Syria is very significant. He has to
:30:32. > :30:36.calculate that it is actually in his interests to call Assad's thugs
:30:36. > :30:40.off. I think that two months ago people would have said Assad will
:30:40. > :30:44.go, I don't think he's about to fall. He may be done for in the
:30:44. > :30:50.three or four year time span, kwhroing he's done for in a three d
:30:50. > :30:54.I don't think he's done for in the three or four week time span. There
:30:54. > :30:58.is Assad in power being persuaded he's not to kill people, that is
:30:58. > :31:02.where we have to put the pressure. President Obama was talking up the
:31:02. > :31:05.chances of diplomacy, some how settling the crisis over why
:31:05. > :31:10.exactly Iran is so insistent on winding up the rest of the world
:31:10. > :31:14.about its nuclear ambitions. Israel, which managed to develop its own
:31:14. > :31:18.nuclear weapons programme, despite international sanctions, says it
:31:18. > :31:21.can't tolerate an Iranian bomb. But other conflict in the Middle East
:31:21. > :31:24.is the last thing President Obama wants right now. When he and the
:31:24. > :31:29.Israeli Prime Minister met in Washington today, he was anxious to
:31:29. > :31:33.downplay talk of military strikes. Our diplomatic editor is here.
:31:33. > :31:37.What was he after? Well, the White House thinks that the Israelis have
:31:37. > :31:41.been making noises that are just too war-like. In the run up to
:31:41. > :31:45.today's meeting, the Israelis said, all right, we could change our
:31:45. > :31:51.language, if you say, publicly, that the US military option is
:31:51. > :31:59.still on the table. As I emphasised, even as we will continue on the
:31:59. > :32:04.diplomatic front, we will continue to tighten pressure, when it comes
:32:04. > :32:10.to sanctions, I reserve all options, and my policy here is not going to
:32:10. > :32:13.be one of containment, my policy is prevention of Iran obtaining
:32:13. > :32:17.nuclear weapons. As I indicated yesterday in my speech, when I say
:32:17. > :32:21.all options are on the table, I mean it. In addition to that public
:32:21. > :32:24.statement, there have been plenty of private US assurances to Israel,
:32:24. > :32:29.along the lines of look, as soon as the presidential elections are out
:32:29. > :32:33.of the way in November, assuming Mr Obama is re-elected, we will take
:32:33. > :32:37.this problem serious low by the horns. In the meantime, we have to
:32:37. > :32:42.-- seriously by the horns, in the meantime we have to give economic
:32:42. > :32:45.saingss time to bite. Certain voices in -- sanctions time to bite.
:32:45. > :32:49.Certain voices in the Israeli cabinet say they think sanctions
:32:49. > :32:53.could work, but need a little time to demonstrate they could do so.
:32:53. > :32:57.Why was Obama's assurance necessary? The Israelis,
:32:57. > :33:01.particularly Mr Netanyahu think he has been soft on Iran. They want to
:33:01. > :33:04.hear a tougher public language. The other thing is, they fear a danger,
:33:04. > :33:09.if you say nothing will happen towards the end of this year, this
:33:09. > :33:14.is a holiday from pressure for the Iranians, therefore they ought to
:33:14. > :33:18.keep up the pressure by raising the specter of a unilateral strike. You
:33:18. > :33:22.might say, OK, what is wrong with Israel playing bad cop, and
:33:22. > :33:26.yesterday President Obama was amazing low candid about why he
:33:26. > :33:30.thought that was a bad idea. -- amazingly candid about why he
:33:30. > :33:34.thought that was a bad idea. Already there is too much loose
:33:34. > :33:38.talk about war. In the last few weeks such talk has only benefited
:33:38. > :33:41.the Iranian Government, by driving up the price of oil, which they
:33:42. > :33:49.depend on to fund their nuclear programme. President Obama
:33:49. > :33:54.obviously feels that the dlorb dollar 5 gallon of gas will -- $5
:33:54. > :33:56.gallon of gas will harm his prospects. At the same time Mr
:33:57. > :34:00.Netanyahu didn't want to go into the meeting looking like a pushover,
:34:00. > :34:05.and he continued to talk tough. Israel must have the ability,
:34:05. > :34:11.always, to defend itself, by itself, against any threat. And that when
:34:11. > :34:17.it comes to Israel's security, Israel has the right, the sovereign
:34:17. > :34:22.right to make its own decisions. I believe that is why, you appreciate
:34:22. > :34:25.Mr President, that Israel must reserve the right to defend itself.
:34:25. > :34:30.Afterall, that is the very purpose of the Jewish state. The Americans
:34:30. > :34:33.are becoming quite frank, though, that Israel couldn't do it alone.
:34:33. > :34:36.Its fighter bombers couldn't reach targets deep in Iran without
:34:36. > :34:41.refuelling, but the country only has a handful of tanker aircraft
:34:41. > :34:46.capable of doing that. Also, the deep buried sites would be hard for
:34:46. > :34:50.them to knockout. It is the tunnelling of a new underground
:34:50. > :34:54.uranium facility that has led to Israeli claims that the Iranians
:34:55. > :34:59.are creating a zone of immunity from attack.
:34:59. > :35:05.Now US officials are telegraphing, US support could make the
:35:05. > :35:09.difference between success and failure. Last week the head of the
:35:09. > :35:12.US fair force said: With what they could do, you
:35:12. > :35:19.wouldn't want to be in the area. They also revealed contingency
:35:19. > :35:23.plans for US tankers to refuel Israeli aircraft, something that
:35:23. > :35:28.could transform Israel's options. Pentagon officials briefed the
:35:28. > :35:31.Washington Post, that a huge new American bomb, the massive
:35:31. > :35:35.ordinance penetrateor, could penetrate up to 200 feet
:35:35. > :35:39.underground, destroying Iranian facilities. What stands in the way
:35:39. > :35:44.of the American message getting through? They have a message, can
:35:44. > :35:47.they actually make raility conform to the US electoral timetable.
:35:47. > :35:57.Hardliners in had Iran could provoke some sort of incident. They
:35:57. > :35:58.
:35:58. > :36:03.could change the pace of this crisis. They could limit the access
:36:03. > :36:07.inspectors are getting, that is a difficult issue. For the details as
:36:07. > :36:14.you understand I cannot get into the details. I can tell you that we
:36:14. > :36:23.are aware that there are some activities and it makes us believe
:36:23. > :36:29.that going there sooner is better than later. Where does the crisis
:36:29. > :36:32.go from here. Political, financial and economic action, if the White
:36:32. > :36:36.House has anything to do it, the military action won't be on the
:36:36. > :36:41.table for the best part of a year. With us now is the Israeli
:36:41. > :36:45.ambassador to Britain. How far do you think the Iranians are, from
:36:45. > :36:49.being able to weaponise whatever nuclear material they have got?
:36:49. > :36:53.That is obvious low one of the key areas of discussion taking place
:36:53. > :37:00.between the President and the Prime Minister, not just between them,
:37:00. > :37:03.just generally. What is your assessment? We don't talk about
:37:03. > :37:07.assessments publicly for reasons that are clear. What is clear is
:37:07. > :37:12.the report from the Atomic Energy Agency is the window is getting
:37:12. > :37:16.closer, and the window is getting narrower. We see there is an
:37:17. > :37:21.attempt to speed up the enrichment and the number of interrefugees.
:37:21. > :37:25.And at the same time to transfer a lot of the enrichment facilities to
:37:25. > :37:30.the underground facilities, where they might be out of harm's way.
:37:30. > :37:35.That is one of the reasons we have to be so focused on the issue at
:37:35. > :37:41.the moment. This is what President Obama calls loose talk, he's
:37:41. > :37:45.calling for less loose talk, why is your Government perpetrating loose
:37:45. > :37:49.talk? President Netanyahu told our troops the same thing a couple of
:37:49. > :37:53.weeks ago, there are things best not spoken about publicly, but they
:37:53. > :37:57.are so important it is best to speak about them publicly. This is
:37:57. > :38:00.about winding things up? I don't think so, we are talking about a
:38:00. > :38:03.genuine and one of the most significant security threats of
:38:03. > :38:06.recent times. It is simply not possible, to co-ordinate, to work
:38:06. > :38:09.closely together, to deal with a threat, not just to Israel, but as
:38:09. > :38:13.we have heard from the President, as we have heard from the Foreign
:38:13. > :38:16.Secretary here, not just to the Middle East, but the entire world.
:38:16. > :38:20.It is something that really needs to exercise us and something we
:38:20. > :38:25.need to discuss. At a military level it would be impossible for
:38:25. > :38:29.Israel, by herself, would it not, to destroy whatever Iranian
:38:29. > :38:32.military weapon is at hand? I'm not going into the details of possible
:38:32. > :38:35.military action, something that both the President and Prime
:38:35. > :38:39.Minister is agreed on, that we simply cannot afford to take
:38:39. > :38:43.military options off the table. We can't afford the situation where
:38:43. > :38:47.dialogue continues, and it is really just background music for
:38:47. > :38:50.enrichment. Even if we put our hopes in dialogue, it will only be
:38:50. > :38:55.effective if we have a credible military option on the table. That
:38:55. > :38:59.is why we take it seriously. There is no suggestion of a unilaterally
:38:59. > :39:02.Israeli action that would work? are not talking about what is there
:39:03. > :39:07.is a possibility about or not. In the past Israel has done the world
:39:07. > :39:12.a service by taking out Iraqi nuclear facilities, and so on. In
:39:12. > :39:15.this case, if there is an option of preventing it through talk and
:39:15. > :39:19.sanctions, that is clearly preferable, and what we would like
:39:19. > :39:23.to achieve. If not we will genuinely have to consider every
:39:23. > :39:27.option, including the military one. How long do you think you have got?
:39:27. > :39:30.We are talking about a narrowing window. We see some sign that the
:39:30. > :39:35.sanctions are taking route. We understand what the President said
:39:35. > :39:38.about seeing those signs and having could go sans of them. But the
:39:38. > :39:45.other point is we are talking about a situation where the threats. You
:39:45. > :39:49.have to look at what Iran is doing today. We see it is supporting
:39:49. > :39:53.terrorism and brutality in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,
:39:53. > :39:58.Gaza. We saw what happened to the British Embassy in Tehran, we have
:39:58. > :40:01.seen what happened to my clogs in Georgia, in India, in -- colleagues
:40:01. > :40:04.in Georgia, India and Thailand there were threats against them.
:40:04. > :40:10.This is without nuclear capability, we have to have our mind on what
:40:10. > :40:13.would be the situation if we had this regime, acting with the
:40:13. > :40:21.additional confidence and potential immunity of a nuclear regime.
:40:21. > :40:26.speak, of course, as a nuke clear weapons regime? The Israeli policy
:40:26. > :40:30.-- nuclear weapons regime? Israeli policy is not to talk about nuclear
:40:30. > :40:33.policy at the moment. Another thing you don't talk about? Israel has
:40:33. > :40:37.not talked about taking another state off the map. You are
:40:37. > :40:42.threatening Iran right now? We are saying what the rest of the
:40:42. > :40:47.international community is saying, the fact is a country that
:40:47. > :40:51.brutalises its citizens, the world's leading supporter of state-
:40:51. > :40:53.sponsored terrorism, and flouting obligations, is not a country that
:40:53. > :40:58.should be permitted to getting nuclear weapons.
:40:58. > :41:01.There are now 144 days to go until the moment when the Olympic Flame
:41:01. > :41:04.is lit in East London. Ever since Tony Blair and his friends began
:41:04. > :41:08.trying to persuade the Olympic Committee to stage the games in
:41:08. > :41:13.London, we have been told they will be a great thing for the capital, a
:41:13. > :41:17.great thing for the nation and human toe. Anyone who feels
:41:17. > :41:27.differently, that it is bread and circumstance cusses, for example,
:41:27. > :41:35.
:41:35. > :41:38.A well known London character called Johnson, not that one,
:41:38. > :41:46.famous low said, that when a man is tired of this city, he's tired of
:41:46. > :41:52.life. # I view the morning
:41:52. > :42:02.# With the laark What when he's tired of all the
:42:02. > :42:04.
:42:04. > :42:10.hype surrounding the Olympic Games coming to the city. China Mieville
:42:10. > :42:16.isn't getting carried away with Olympic fever, in the city he calls
:42:16. > :42:22.home. Welcome aboard the Newsnight bus of truth. Shall we take a seat.
:42:22. > :42:30.But broadcaster Robert Elms, is such a Londoner, he doesn't have
:42:30. > :42:36.blood in his veins, he has gelied eels! That doesn't make sense. We
:42:36. > :42:43.brought the two of them together, to take in the sites, to cuss the
:42:44. > :42:48.games, and the Metropilis that will be the centre of the world's
:42:48. > :42:51.attention. I think London is facing economic difficulties verging on
:42:51. > :42:55.catastrophy, which the Government is doing the opposite of helping.
:42:55. > :43:00.It is not helping young people who in London, rates of unemployment,
:43:00. > :43:05.disaffection, disempowerment, are enormous. I'm concerned about the
:43:05. > :43:08.way the Olympics is prioritising a corporate agenda over a local
:43:08. > :43:12.agenda. I'm a huge fan of sport, I will love the Olympics and the fact
:43:12. > :43:17.it is in my town and the world is looking at my town. I have big
:43:17. > :43:20.issues about the ticketing, many people have. I have big issues
:43:20. > :43:24.about corporatisation, sadly, that is the nature of these events
:43:24. > :43:27.anywhere in the world. You won't get an uncorporate limb iblgs,
:43:27. > :43:33.because of the very tail -- Olympics, because of the very scale
:43:33. > :43:37.of it. I do believe we will do it very, very well, and some of the
:43:37. > :43:41.incredibly messy, tar-stained charm of this city will come through.
:43:41. > :43:46.is exactly that kind of grass-roots vibecy that is being squeezed out
:43:46. > :43:54.by this, or there is an attempt, should I say, to squeeze it out, I
:43:54. > :43:58.think it is extremely resilient, I'm trying to take the side of that
:43:58. > :44:02.against the very much Boris Johnson's agenda of laughing at
:44:02. > :44:06.those who have criticisms, the moaning minis, and all this kind of
:44:06. > :44:14.nonsense, there are serious problems facing the city, and it is
:44:14. > :44:19.done to us by the Millennium Dome in power.
:44:19. > :44:22.The People in power weren't listening to those involved in last
:44:22. > :44:27.summer's disturbances says China Mieville. I think the riots were a
:44:27. > :44:33.wake-up call for people. I think people would see that to as young
:44:33. > :44:39.people helping themselves to trainers and TVs? Anyone who will
:44:39. > :44:43.traduce the serious attempt to deal with social issues, by poipbgt out
:44:43. > :44:50.the obvious acts of theft and so on, that happen in any situation like
:44:50. > :44:53.that, and suggest in Teresa May's terms there is nothing else but
:44:53. > :44:58.that, no questions to be asked, this is willful stupidity. What do
:44:58. > :45:04.you make of that, the root causes of the riots and what they showed
:45:04. > :45:10.us? They are incredibly complex, to put it in context, the London mob,
:45:10. > :45:15.that can arise from the streets of London historically, has always
:45:15. > :45:21.done this. It was painted as a city that was neutered or spoiled, I
:45:21. > :45:25.won't say I'm in favour of the riots, I'm a middle-class man now
:45:25. > :45:30.with a lot to lose, and I don't want my kids dragged into that. I
:45:30. > :45:34.think it is a sign of London's vivacity and vir reelity. How will
:45:34. > :45:38.we look like on this year, an important year for the country and
:45:38. > :45:43.city? I think London will put on a fantastic party, it is one of the
:45:43. > :45:47.things we do really well. I can absolutely predict with assurance,
:45:47. > :45:51.that this magnificent, dirty, noisy, smelly old city, will continue to
:45:51. > :45:55.be the greatest in the world. will have to come back in ten years
:45:56. > :46:01.and see the state of East London, in ten or fifth teen years time we
:46:01. > :46:04.don't just have a dead graveyard of ridiculous giant buildings, if we
:46:04. > :46:14.have an infrastructure helping local people, I will be happy to
:46:14. > :46:30.
:46:30. > :46:38.say I was wrong. Tomorrow morning's That is all tonight, the death of
:46:38. > :46:43.the man who designed some of the most popular characters in science
:46:43. > :46:53.fiction. Raffle McQuartery were associated with all popular
:46:53. > :47:17.
:47:17. > :47:23.programmes on TV, but he was mostly It is cold out there, a frost
:47:23. > :47:26.developing across many parts of the country. A couple of exceptions in
:47:26. > :47:30.East Anglia, cloudier here rb avoiding a frost. Northern Ireland
:47:30. > :47:35.clouding up for most of us. Lots and lots of sunshine to look
:47:35. > :47:38.forward to. A lovely day across the heart of England, spring sunshine,
:47:38. > :47:41.temperatures up to eight or nine or ten degrees. A better day in the
:47:41. > :47:46.south-east compared to what we have. The cloud thinning, lighter winds,
:47:46. > :47:49.it will feel warmer. Pleasant too across the West Country. Clouding
:47:49. > :47:54.up a touch across the far South- West of England. Western parts of
:47:55. > :47:58.Wales starting to cloud up too. Further east will stay fine and
:47:58. > :48:02.bright through daylight hours. For Northern Ireland things going down
:48:02. > :48:06.hill, it does turn increasingly cloudy, wet and windy later on in
:48:06. > :48:10.the day, that rain pushes into a good part of western Scotland,
:48:10. > :48:13.further east things will stay predominant low dry, right the way
:48:13. > :48:17.through the day. Things chopping and changing, the rain moves
:48:17. > :48:20.through, northern areas will return to sunshine and showers. It will
:48:20. > :48:23.turn colder with the showers wintry on Wednesday, across the high
:48:23. > :48:26.ground on Scotland. Further south, Tuesday looks good, but Wednesday
:48:26. > :48:29.will see some rain, that rain should clear through, and hopefully
:48:29. > :48:33.skies will brighten later on in the day. We have a weather front
:48:33. > :48:37.crossing the country on Wednesday, we will see a bit of a splash,