:00:12. > :00:16.He was the Archbishop who tried to be the uniter, should Rowan
:00:16. > :00:21.Williams have tried to be someone else. May the peace of God be on
:00:21. > :00:26.this house and upon this company. For nearly a decade the Archbishop
:00:26. > :00:29.of Canterbury struggled to pull the Anglican Church together. But
:00:29. > :00:35.disagreements over women bishops and gay marriage are fundamental
:00:35. > :00:38.and not going away. We debate on whether the church would be better
:00:38. > :00:42.spliting apart. Amid rising tensions in Afghanistan,
:00:42. > :00:46.we return to Kabul to assess the mood and speak to the President.
:00:46. > :00:54.Your relationship with the United States, is it at the end of the
:00:54. > :00:57.road? This form of activity, this behaviour, cannot be tolerated.
:00:57. > :01:02.And is the Chancellor, who says we're all in this together, really
:01:02. > :01:05.about to cut taxes for the richist in society, or will he stand up --
:01:05. > :01:08.richest on society, or will he stand up on Budget Day and announce
:01:08. > :01:18.nothing of the kind. We will look at the odds on George Osborne
:01:18. > :01:18.
:01:18. > :01:22.ditching the 50p rate of tax, and the political implications. Good
:01:22. > :01:27.evening. Politicians and religious leaders paid tribute to Rowan
:01:27. > :01:30.Williams today, after he announced his tenth year as rarpblg Bishop of
:01:31. > :01:35.Canterbury would be his last. There is no getting round it, the job as
:01:35. > :01:39.head of the Anglican Church has gotten steadily harder. He may have
:01:39. > :01:44.challenged the imagination of the country, as the Labour leader, Ed
:01:44. > :01:50.Milliband, suggested. But when it came to the church itself, his time
:01:50. > :01:53.in office was spent papering over the cracks, containing but never
:01:53. > :01:57.healing over a schism. In a moment we will look and see if the effort
:01:57. > :02:01.was worth it. In the Buckinghamshire parish
:02:02. > :02:10.church of St Margaret, Virgin and Martyr, they were meeting today to
:02:10. > :02:15.appoint a new rebgtor. Rector. A choice on a local level,
:02:15. > :02:22.as hard as the one facing the whole church, obliged to find a successor
:02:22. > :02:29.to Rowan Williams. Here in the village of Iver Heath, there is
:02:30. > :02:33.only one question, it will be a man, this church doesn't accept women
:02:33. > :02:37.priests. St Margaret's, in other words, is a symbol of the kind of
:02:37. > :02:41.church that Dr Williams, who announced his forth coming
:02:41. > :02:44.resignation today, has led for nearly ten years. Through the rows
:02:44. > :02:50.over ordination of women and gay people, he has fought to keep it
:02:50. > :02:54.intact. He admits that has taken a toll on him. Dr Williams has said
:02:54. > :03:01.his successor will need the constitution of an ox and the hide
:03:01. > :03:05.of a wry non-rus. Testament of how hard it is to -- Rhine no sirous,
:03:05. > :03:08.testament of how hard it is to hold this church together.
:03:08. > :03:11.Now Rowan Williams is going, some will ask whether it is worth
:03:11. > :03:16.continuing what may be a hopeless struing.
:03:16. > :03:21.A struggle overish -- struggle. A struggle over issues that seem to
:03:22. > :03:28.obsess the church but matter little to people outside. Most people find
:03:28. > :03:32.it incredible that anyone, let alone those with pretensions to
:03:32. > :03:36.moral authority would be scrapping over the place of women in society.
:03:36. > :03:40.It seems extraordinary any serious body will be fighting over. That
:03:40. > :03:43.someone said they thought we had sorted that 20 or 30 years ago, why
:03:43. > :03:49.is it the big issue now. When it comes down to gay people, the idea
:03:49. > :03:53.that gay people are some how children of a lesser God, that some
:03:53. > :03:59.how they can't have loving, permanent, stable relationships,
:03:59. > :04:04.strikes many people as, to use a rather awful word, grotesque.
:04:04. > :04:09.national church, created as part of an arrangement, to allow the
:04:09. > :04:12.remarriage of Henry VIII, still has arrangements in its blood. That is
:04:12. > :04:17.why there is a second bishop here today to help choose the new rector,
:04:17. > :04:22.a flying bishop, appointed separately to support par aishs
:04:22. > :04:27.that op -- parishs that oppose the ordination of Britain.
:04:27. > :04:29.Shnt too much time spent on those church that is think things are
:04:29. > :04:37.important theological and within the church, but not really of
:04:37. > :04:41.interest to the wider community? think the opposite risk is that the
:04:41. > :04:46.church ploughs very determinately a particular furrow on one or other
:04:46. > :04:51.issue and people fall away. You actually lead to a splintering and
:04:51. > :04:54.weakening of the whole, where as, what we have, potentially, is a way
:04:54. > :04:59.of having that common commitment to presenting the Christian faith in a
:04:59. > :05:06.way that is really engaging and lively, and converting, which is
:05:06. > :05:08.what the country needs. To say, yes we can do this, and within certain
:05:08. > :05:13.limits we can accommodate difference.
:05:13. > :05:18.But has the effort to acomdied that internal difference sometimes
:05:18. > :05:25.distracted the church from engaging clearly in big national debates.
:05:25. > :05:29.Like many politician, Lord Falconer hugely admired Dr Williams, but
:05:29. > :05:34.feels he hasn't been able to use his gifts to the full. Imagine an
:05:34. > :05:38.organisation that could say we strongly disapprove of this or that
:05:38. > :05:41.aspect of a particular change, for example like a cap on welfare
:05:41. > :05:47.benefits, and people listening to that, rather than simply treating
:05:47. > :05:52.it as one voice among many voices, in relation to the issue. It is not
:05:52. > :05:57.the position now, will it happen in the future? Well, if Rowan Williams,
:05:57. > :06:02.a man of huge integrity, couldn't provide the cohesion that was
:06:02. > :06:08.needed in relation to t it is very difficult to imagine anybody else
:06:08. > :06:11.that could. To avoid schism, Dr Williams has tried to get all the
:06:11. > :06:16.institute churches of the wider Anglican union, to agree to a
:06:16. > :06:22.covenant that would stop them ordaining openly gay Clergy without
:06:22. > :06:26.central consent. But more and more dies sis of England are rejecting
:06:27. > :06:30.it. That document of Rowan Williams, that was to be his legacy, a new
:06:30. > :06:34.shape for the Anglican community, is now dead in the water. That
:06:34. > :06:38.makes it very difficult for Dr Williams to continue as Archbishop
:06:38. > :06:41.of Canterbury, which many people regard as something of a tragedy.
:06:41. > :06:45.Here is who the bookies say is favourite to be the next head of
:06:45. > :06:50.the church, the Archbishop of York, John Sentamu. REPORTER: Do you
:06:50. > :06:55.fancy the job? You can't be serious. Whatever his chances, some already
:06:55. > :06:58.feel he represents a centralising tendency that may be counter-
:06:58. > :07:03.productive. A wise new Archbishop will be genuinely collaborative and
:07:03. > :07:08.work from the bottom up, rather than trying to drive things from
:07:08. > :07:12.the centre. I don't think Rowan Williams has intended to do that, I
:07:12. > :07:15.it is more the Archbishop of York associated with that than the
:07:15. > :07:22.Archbishop of Canterbury, it is a phenomenon that has grown in the
:07:22. > :07:25.last few years. An inspiring, thoughtful man, in an impossible
:07:25. > :07:30.job, Rowan Williams will be missed by many, but he has found no
:07:30. > :07:33.solutions to problems in the church that may be too broad for its own
:07:33. > :07:38.good. With me are the Right Reverend Stephen Cottrell, the
:07:38. > :07:42.Bishop of Chelmsford, theeloj can, Dr Robert Beckford, and Canon
:07:42. > :07:45.Doctor Chris Sugden, from the Campaign Group, Anglican Mainstream.
:07:46. > :07:49.We have said that Rowan Williams was all about uniting a church,
:07:49. > :07:59.that was all he was about for the last ten years, did he actually
:07:59. > :08:01.
:08:01. > :08:04.succeed, has he held the church together? I think he has been an
:08:04. > :08:08.outstanding Archbishop in many ways, the analysis on which the
:08:08. > :08:11.conversation is premised is a false one. I don't think he was at all
:08:11. > :08:17.interested in papering over cracks, what he was interested in doing was
:08:17. > :08:20.helping us look at our foundations. One of those foundations is, of
:08:20. > :08:25.course, not the Archbishop of Canterbury, not the Church of
:08:25. > :08:29.England, but Jesus Christ, Jesus Christ tells you that I can't be a
:08:29. > :08:34.Christian on my own, my Christian faith brings me into relationships
:08:34. > :08:39.with others, and often, with people with whom I disagree. And so how we
:08:39. > :08:42.handle those disagreements, and how we hold together, truth and unity,
:08:42. > :08:46.are two very important things. Now, the disagreements that we have at
:08:46. > :08:50.the moment are just the latest disagreements that have littered
:08:51. > :08:54.church history from the beginning. These are deep disagreements, as I
:08:54. > :08:59.said, they are not going anywhere, people feel very deeply about them?
:08:59. > :09:03.That may be how you see it, it is not how many of us see it in the
:09:03. > :09:08.church. We are very committed to holding ourselves together as one
:09:08. > :09:12.church, and building those bonds of affection with one another, around
:09:12. > :09:17.the truths that we have received. And I believe, what Rowan Williams
:09:17. > :09:20.has offered us, is a way of engaging with each other,
:09:20. > :09:24.continuing conversation, which has never been easy, but that
:09:24. > :09:28.conversation continues. Do you agree with this, you have said you
:09:28. > :09:32.think people who agree with gay priests should leave the church?
:09:32. > :09:36.I'm not certain when I have said that. There are many priests who
:09:36. > :09:39.are gay, the issue is behaviour, not orientation.
:09:39. > :09:44.But the issue is really. Do you think it will be as easy,
:09:44. > :09:52.regardless of the ins and outs, do you think it will be as easy as the
:09:52. > :09:59.bishop seems to be suggesting? not suinging it is easy, but I will
:09:59. > :10:01.let -- suggesting it will be easy. What I have said is I think he has
:10:01. > :10:04.enabled a conversation to happen and that is continuing. It is a
:10:04. > :10:08.hard conversation, because loving your neighbour, especially the one
:10:08. > :10:11.you disagree with, is never easy. Where does the conversation end?
:10:11. > :10:14.think we have to understand what the Church of England, and the
:10:14. > :10:18.wider Anglican Communion, we are talking not just about the Church
:10:18. > :10:22.of England, we are talking about the worldwide communion, of 55
:10:22. > :10:26.million Anglicans, the issue is not the leader, it is the nature of
:10:26. > :10:31.leadership, in what is basically a family. A family that has a shared
:10:31. > :10:36.history, many shared relationships, as a shared faith, as the bishop
:10:36. > :10:41.has said, in Jesus Christ and his word in the scriptures. What has
:10:41. > :10:45.changed over Archbishop Williams's ten years has been the nature of
:10:45. > :10:48.the leadership in the communion, it is a multipolar community, many
:10:48. > :10:54.different networks and organisations globally. Do you
:10:54. > :10:58.think that works and is sustain snbl I think it is sustainable and
:10:58. > :11:03.needs Sustainable? I think it is sustainable, and I would like to
:11:03. > :11:07.see his successor take seriously the leadership of the churches and
:11:07. > :11:12.the Primates in Africa and the global south. That is one area that
:11:12. > :11:14.needs to be improved on. A second area that needs to be improved is
:11:14. > :11:19.the role and position of the Conservatives in the church should
:11:19. > :11:27.be taken much more seriously. For example, there is one dies sis, the
:11:27. > :11:30.Diocese of -- diocese, the Diocese of Southwark, where in the last six
:11:31. > :11:34.appointments have been from the same revisionist stripe, even
:11:34. > :11:38.though all the churches in the diocese have been evangelical,
:11:38. > :11:41.there has been no appointments from such a section. There must be
:11:41. > :11:47.collaboration with the leadership and taking seriously the global
:11:47. > :11:54.south, and seriously the control of conservative evangelicals and
:11:54. > :11:59.anglo-Catholics, who it is said make up 40% of the church right now.
:11:59. > :12:01.What is your take, that somebody can do this job, the successor to
:12:01. > :12:04.the Archbishop of Canterbury will be able to hold it together?
:12:04. > :12:11.don't think so, this is a family at war, maybe it is time for the
:12:11. > :12:18.church to bite the bullet and look at ways to separate and I April
:12:18. > :12:22.cablely. Separation or -- amble, separation. It may lead to
:12:22. > :12:26.evangelism and prophetic ministry, churches that engage in the real
:12:26. > :12:31.issues ordinary people are concerned W I think the discussion
:12:31. > :12:36.is incredibly myopic, I don't think the average Anglican, who is a
:12:36. > :12:41.black woman in the global south, who is not concerned about the next
:12:41. > :12:45.leader, but concerned about what the next leader will deliver.
:12:45. > :12:50.couldn't be more wrong. The Christian faith requires us to love
:12:50. > :12:54.our neighbour and be in community with each other. There is no other
:12:54. > :12:58.choice that we seek unity in Christ and with each other, that is non-
:12:58. > :13:03.negotiable. In my experience, which I agree is not a huge wurpbgs but
:13:03. > :13:06.in my experience of travel -- one, but my experience of travelling
:13:06. > :13:10.overseas, particularly in Kenya, they care very much about the unity
:13:10. > :13:13.they have with Christians in this country. And we are a global faith,
:13:13. > :13:16.or we are nothing. It is about faith, it is about
:13:16. > :13:22.belief. If you were a political party, you could understand why you
:13:22. > :13:26.might need to do wheeling and dealing, and coming to some kind of
:13:26. > :13:33.lowest common denominator, that is not what religion is supposed to be.
:13:33. > :13:36.How can it survive if people inside are fundamentally uncomfortable?
:13:36. > :13:39.don't see politics or wheeling and dealing, what I do see is
:13:40. > :13:42.Christians want to go discover. Having fundamental disagreements?
:13:42. > :13:47.And learning how to live with them rather than split because of them.
:13:47. > :13:51.And working out what are the legitimate boundaries within which
:13:51. > :13:55.Christian faith can grow and flourish. We have a concrete
:13:55. > :13:59.example of it, we had the covenant, that was supposed to be a unifying
:13:59. > :14:05.document, and yet not even, a large number of diocese in England have
:14:05. > :14:09.been unable to support it. If not that, what is going to do it?
:14:09. > :14:12.problem is, that we have got a different style of the three
:14:12. > :14:17.groupings that make up the Church of England at the moment. You have
:14:17. > :14:20.the anglo-Catholics, the liberals and the evangelicals, the Church of
:14:20. > :14:24.England has historically embraced all three within certain boundaries,
:14:25. > :14:30.what we have had in the last ten years is a much more centralist
:14:30. > :14:36.approach by some of those groupings. For example, in the United States
:14:36. > :14:39.you have had people taking out law cases against Clergy, parishs and
:14:39. > :14:44.congregation, depriving them of their living, pensions and churches,
:14:44. > :14:49.because they happen to disagree with the ordination of someone in a
:14:49. > :14:52.same sexual relationship. That is what I call essentialism, they are
:14:52. > :14:56.pushing people out by their essentialism. They are not willing
:14:56. > :15:00.to accept that there is a legitimate disagreement and people
:15:00. > :15:03.can belong. I think again it is a complex issue,
:15:04. > :15:08.and very painful for Anglicans to have to consider their church being
:15:08. > :15:12.fractured by this. Do you think it is sapping energy? I think it is
:15:12. > :15:17.sapping energy. I think it is actually misguided. The real issue
:15:17. > :15:20.is how can the next Archbishop develop a prophetic ministry, a
:15:20. > :15:23.ministry that will speak truth to power, that will engage with every
:15:23. > :15:26.day ordinary people within the country, and actually, more than
:15:26. > :15:30.anything else, deal with the fact that most people are not interested
:15:30. > :15:34.in religion in this country. That is the fundamental issue. This is
:15:34. > :15:39.meant to be a church of the nation. Most people have turned their backs
:15:39. > :15:43.on the church. The critical issue is how can they renew the church in
:15:43. > :15:48.such a way that it engages with people. Shows people that faith
:15:48. > :15:53.matters. We have to wind up in a minute. You have to ask you, you
:15:53. > :16:01.have to know you are appearing on some of the lists today, do you
:16:01. > :16:05.have the constitution of an ox and the hide of a Rhino? I take a lead
:16:05. > :16:09.from Rowan Williams on many things but not on that, I look forward
:16:09. > :16:14.with joyfulness and gentleness. were 15-1 before this discussion,
:16:14. > :16:17.who knows afterwards. The relationship between America
:16:17. > :16:20.and Afghanistan is looking increasingly fractured this week,
:16:20. > :16:25.as Afghan officials try to get to the bottom of the deadly rampage by
:16:25. > :16:28.a US officer, which killed 16 civilians. President Hamid Karzai
:16:28. > :16:31.today lashed out at the US, for failing to co-operate with his
:16:31. > :16:38.investigation. He's also unhappy that the soldier
:16:38. > :16:42.responsible, who has just been named as Staff Sergeant Robert
:16:42. > :16:48.Bales, has been taken to the US for trial.
:16:48. > :16:52.We have been gauging the mood among Afghans in the capital.
:16:52. > :16:58.It is graduation day for newly- trained Afghan soldiers. Elated
:16:58. > :17:02.that good friends go with them, as they head out to their first fight.
:17:02. > :17:06.They will be fighting alongside US and other NATO forces. But how hard
:17:06. > :17:09.is that now? What do you think about what
:17:09. > :17:15.happened in Kandahar, when one American soldier went and killed
:17:15. > :17:20.some Afghan civilians, do you trust the Americans? No, you don't? Why
:17:20. > :17:25.don't you? TRANSLATION: No, why did they kill
:17:25. > :17:31.these innocent Muslims. What did they do wrong? If they work
:17:31. > :17:37.properly we are ready to work with them. If they don't, we are not.
:17:37. > :17:41.Off camera, some soldiers were more blunt. Kafirs, infidels, declared
:17:41. > :17:43.one young guard when I asked him about the Americans, who pick up
:17:43. > :17:49.most of the tab for his fledgling army.
:17:49. > :17:54.That anger goes right up to the palace. Today President Karzai
:17:54. > :17:57.asked tribunal elders from Kandahar to -- tribal elders to tell him
:17:57. > :18:04.what happened when 16 people were killed. They spoke with anger and
:18:04. > :18:12.sadness. This man described how 11 people
:18:12. > :18:16.died in one house alone. The man who survived that said his
:18:16. > :18:22.relatives were mutilated, the women were killed. How could this be the
:18:22. > :18:27.work of one man. The President was clearly moved and
:18:27. > :18:31.angered by what he heard. When he rose to leave, I called out to him.
:18:31. > :18:36.REPORTER: Do you accept the official American account that only
:18:36. > :18:46.one American soldier was involved in these killings? The story of the
:18:46. > :18:47.
:18:47. > :18:52.village elders in there said is different, he said it is not
:18:52. > :18:56.possible that one person could do that. In his house four rooms,
:18:56. > :19:01.women and children were killed, they were all put in one room and
:19:01. > :19:07.put on fire. That one man cannot do. What do you do next, Sir? It is by
:19:07. > :19:13.all means the end of the road here. Nobody can afford such luxuries,
:19:13. > :19:22.any more, if you can call it a luxury. This form of activity, this
:19:22. > :19:25.behaviour, cannot be tolerated. This week the Afghan parliament,
:19:25. > :19:32.also declared its patience was running out. But it is one thing to
:19:32. > :19:37.say it, another to do it. They still need their foreign partners.
:19:37. > :19:47.Afghanistan cannot survive without the support of international
:19:47. > :19:51.
:19:51. > :19:57.commune ity. You are in surviving by money given by British and
:19:57. > :20:01.American tax-payers. If you refuse to finance the Afghan budget, I
:20:01. > :20:08.would say Mr Karzai, President of Afghanistan, he has not the money
:20:08. > :20:11.to buy the tea for his office. Despite this dependency, there is a
:20:11. > :20:17.growing distance. Every time I visit there are new security
:20:17. > :20:23.barriers. You hardly see any foreigners on the streets now. They
:20:23. > :20:28.used to buy souvenirs here, today I'm the only one.
:20:28. > :20:31.I often drop by this cafe to meet young Afghan friends. It is filled
:20:31. > :20:35.with well dressed, well educated Afghans, who have done well on
:20:35. > :20:39.salaries paid by the west. Even they find it hard to understand why
:20:39. > :20:45.it is so difficult to get this relationship right.
:20:45. > :20:50.My understanding is, the people who are making decisions do not have
:20:50. > :20:52.this leverage. They are sitting behind closed doors, getting
:20:52. > :20:56.information from people I have difficulty understanding, of how
:20:56. > :20:59.they can relay this sort of information to them. That then goes
:20:59. > :21:05.up and then decisions are based on that. They don't even get to come
:21:05. > :21:09.out to see the real Kabul, forget the provinces and the villages, how
:21:09. > :21:15.can you build trust when they can't even come out and we can't go in.
:21:15. > :21:18.If you go in, you feel you are in a different, I'm sorry, it is my
:21:18. > :21:22.country, it is a different place. I'm searched to the extent that I
:21:22. > :21:26.don't want to deal with it. The issue is here, if you want to build
:21:26. > :21:29.trust, they need to come out and speak to the normal population.
:21:29. > :21:36.There seems to be battles everywhere. And sometimes it seems
:21:37. > :21:40.they are not fighting with, but against each other.
:21:40. > :21:45.And that's dangerous, when it comes to a real battlefield.
:21:46. > :21:50.This isn't one. These soldiers are being trained to throw grenades.
:21:50. > :22:00.All the weapons are pretend. This man's gun is a drain pipe, but they
:22:00. > :22:00.
:22:00. > :22:05.are not faking their desire to fight, and to fight their own way.
:22:05. > :22:09.They are getting the training of every NATO soldier, the best
:22:09. > :22:17.training that can be offered here, which you are constantly reminded,
:22:17. > :22:23.this is an Afghan Muslim army. What do they shout when they hurl those
:22:23. > :22:26.grenades, Allah hu Akbar, "God it great".
:22:26. > :22:35.Armies often say they throw away their plans once they meet the
:22:35. > :22:45.reality of war. The problem here is there is no other plan.
:22:45. > :22:46.
:22:46. > :22:51.Right now, no-one is clear what to Allah hu Akbar.
:22:51. > :22:54.50p, or not 50p, it is a question we have spent a surprisingly large
:22:54. > :22:59.amount of time discussing in the lead up to the budget. You might
:22:59. > :23:02.think not so surprising, after all, we know the Chancellor thinks high
:23:02. > :23:06.taxes for wealth creators are bad for business and he would like to
:23:07. > :23:11.ditch that one. Now there are cuts as far as the eyes can see, real
:23:11. > :23:15.incomes for most households are falling, and politically the wealth
:23:15. > :23:20.creators have turned into "fat cats", not a great time to cut them
:23:20. > :23:30.a break. Before we discuss it, a few facts.
:23:30. > :23:30.
:23:30. > :23:35.The Treasury estimate there are tax-payers that fall into the 50p
:23:35. > :23:41.band. Labour says it will raise �2.6 billion in the first year.
:23:41. > :23:46.Some say it won't raise anything at all, one thing high earners know is
:23:46. > :23:51.how to avoid tax. Who could tax the rich, there is the Lib Dem idea of
:23:51. > :23:56.a mansion tax on properties over �2 million, or Warren Buffett's tycoon
:23:56. > :24:02.tax, forcing the rich to pay a certain share of their income in
:24:02. > :24:06.tax. Or Mr Osborne could reduce the tax relief on high earners' pension
:24:06. > :24:10.contributions. I'm joined now by Daniel
:24:10. > :24:16.Finkelstein from the Times, and Steve Richards from the Independent.
:24:16. > :24:22.What's going on, how do you read all of the last few weeks
:24:22. > :24:27.machinations about the 50p? All the debate has taken place in public
:24:27. > :24:32.because of the budget. Can you read that in it? I can't raet it any
:24:32. > :24:35.other way, the discussions that take place normally take place in
:24:35. > :24:38.cabinet. Now he has to discuss it with the Liberal Democrats, that
:24:38. > :24:42.probably goes a little wider, Nick Clegg has to bring his
:24:42. > :24:48.parliamentary team in, when you go beyond three or four people you get
:24:48. > :24:52.leaks. I take very seriously what I read in the paper. I think what we
:24:52. > :24:55.are seeing now is the game big played as to how this will be
:24:55. > :24:59.perceived afterwards. So I think, I'm guessing that the Lib Dems were
:24:59. > :25:04.the source of this story, because they want to make quite clear they
:25:04. > :25:08.have got what they wanted, which was fair in their view, progressive
:25:08. > :25:11.tax breaks in terms of raising the threshold for low income earners,
:25:11. > :25:15.and not paying income tax. But therefore they have conceded ground,
:25:15. > :25:19.as they would put it, and want to create a distance with the
:25:19. > :25:23.Conservatives' desire for the top rate of tax to be cut. So I think
:25:23. > :25:26.the stories are accurate, and they reflect what is going on in
:25:26. > :25:34.preparation for next Wednesday. Whatever is going to happen, it has
:25:34. > :25:38.been decided, we have been told it has gone to the office of budget
:25:38. > :25:42.for responsibility d to the Office of Budget Responsibility, what is
:25:42. > :25:44.your instinct -- to the Office of Budget Responsibility, what is your
:25:44. > :25:48.instinct? I would be surprised if that is wrong, there has been
:25:48. > :25:50.negotiation. There has been a long standing desire from the
:25:50. > :25:54.Conservatives to reduce marginal rates of tax. At the beginning of
:25:54. > :25:57.the programme you said will there be cuts for taxes on well off
:25:57. > :26:01.people? Almost certainly not. We haven't heard any of the other
:26:01. > :26:06.things in the budget, it would be amazing to me if there weren't
:26:06. > :26:10.rises for people at the top. could be politically toxic, what
:26:10. > :26:14.are the risks for George Osborne in this, or does he think there are no
:26:14. > :26:18.risks because the opposition is nowhere to be seen? No, there are
:26:18. > :26:22.risks. The phrase that he is most associated with, as far as any
:26:22. > :26:27.politician is associated with any phrase, is we are all in this
:26:27. > :26:31.together. So when he, assuming he does this, announces a tax cut for
:26:31. > :26:35.the most well off, it will take one heck of a lot of explanation. Danny
:26:35. > :26:39.and others will say there is a valid explanation, but the
:26:39. > :26:43.political risk is very high, to the extent that I know, people like Ed
:26:43. > :26:48.Balls, who is an astute, whatever you think of his views, an astute
:26:48. > :26:52.follower of the politics of tax, because he has been doing it since
:26:52. > :26:56.1992, didn't think George Osborne would do this for his own political
:26:56. > :26:59.sake. It looks as if they are going to do it. I think the immediate
:26:59. > :27:04.political risks are very large, the only way you could do it
:27:04. > :27:09.politically is if it actual lie works. If you believe -- actually
:27:09. > :27:15.works. If you believe that cutting the rates work, and it produces
:27:15. > :27:19.greater growth, then it will be political credit, but in the end
:27:19. > :27:22.that is how people will make the judgments. Immediately it is hard
:27:22. > :27:28.to argue with that judgment, that it will be politically very
:27:28. > :27:33.difficult. How important is it that it hasn'ted very much money? That
:27:33. > :27:39.will be -- hasn't raised very much money? That will be difficult, to
:27:39. > :27:43.make the argument that it was right and it raises nothing. If you can
:27:43. > :27:47.go with that argument. It is premature, George Osborne announced
:27:47. > :27:52.the review as to whether it raised money, after the first year,
:27:53. > :27:56.apparently, it will form a policy decision on that basis. That is
:27:56. > :27:59.pretty difficult. The OBR and other organisation also try to model it,
:27:59. > :28:03.it will be a very important part of the argument, whether it raises
:28:03. > :28:07.money. And also the other parts of the argument, which is who else's
:28:07. > :28:10.tax will be cut, and what other taxes are going to be raised on
:28:11. > :28:15.well-off people. You have said it won't be a net tax cut for the
:28:15. > :28:18.wealthy, do you think it has to go with a tax cut for lower income
:28:19. > :28:23.households? We do definitely know something will happen on this, Nick
:28:23. > :28:28.Clegg has said so clearly that he wants that cut, in fact, the
:28:28. > :28:33.Chancellor has committed himself in the first budget to do that each
:28:33. > :28:37.year that is part of the coalition agreement. We will definitely see
:28:37. > :28:43.that, it is guess work, you have to think it is unlikely to see
:28:43. > :28:47.reductions in tax for top rates. It will be about tax rates. You talk
:28:47. > :28:50.about the political risk of this, if you were George Osborne you
:28:50. > :28:54.could look at the last week, Labour's big week on the economy
:28:54. > :28:59.and think it hasn't gone anywhere? I didn't even know it was a big
:28:59. > :29:02.week, in advance it was meant to be a big week. I think there are
:29:02. > :29:05.political risks. What is really interesting now about budgets in
:29:05. > :29:09.general, but this one specifically, it is nearly all about the politics.
:29:09. > :29:14.As you know better than anyone in the studio, policy announcements on
:29:14. > :29:17.the economy are made all the time, quanative easing, you know, the
:29:17. > :29:23.autumn statement and so on. The budget, actually what we are
:29:23. > :29:26.talking about is about a billion here or there. Do you think this is
:29:26. > :29:28.a distraction? It is highly political. Do you think some of it
:29:28. > :29:31.is a distraction from the big picture that the economy is not
:29:31. > :29:35.doing well? All that matters is what works at the end of the day.
:29:35. > :29:39.People don't follow the ins and outs of the budgets and follow what
:29:39. > :29:42.politicians say. The only thing that matters is does it improve
:29:42. > :29:44.growth. The political signals people pick up from Wednesday, that
:29:44. > :29:49.is why it is significant and dangerous. Thank you very much.
:29:49. > :29:55.Before we take a look atom morning's front pages, matter that
:29:55. > :30:00.is in Glasgow with tonight's review show.
:30:00. > :30:10.Coming up on the review show, Douglas Adams buys a zoo, we move
:30:10. > :30:31.
:30:31. > :30:34.from Downing Streeten to to the The story leaked about the budget
:30:34. > :30:38.for national pay rates for civil servants and maybe other public
:30:38. > :30:45.sector workers too. Same story in the Guardian about
:30:45. > :30:49.having regional pay. That's all from Newsnight, on the
:30:49. > :30:57.eve of what will be another Welsh Grand Slam, probably, we will leave
:30:57. > :31:02.you with one of their legends, Mervyn Davies, who died today, Merv