:00:13. > :00:17.On tonight's programme, will Spain be the straw that breaks the back
:00:17. > :00:21.of the euro? Titanic power struggles at the very
:00:21. > :00:25.top in China. We talk to senator John McCain on
:00:25. > :00:27.how to stop Bashar al-Assad murdering his citizens. And our
:00:27. > :00:32.political editor learns that David Cameron has been asked by the
:00:32. > :00:36.United Nationss to rewrite the Millennium Development Goals.
:00:36. > :00:43.As elections loom, the President of France fights for his political
:00:43. > :00:48.life, what can he honestly claim as a core conviction?
:00:48. > :00:58.He is one of the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I
:00:58. > :01:00.
:01:00. > :01:06.must say the core belief is not his cup of tea.
:01:06. > :01:10.In all the hoo ha about pasties and petrol, and how good it is for the
:01:10. > :01:17.rich in Britain, we have taken our eye off the crisis in Euroland, it
:01:17. > :01:22.hasn't gone away. It rather resembles Jesus' description of the
:01:22. > :01:24.poor, always with us. Spain is far bigger deal than Greece and the
:01:25. > :01:30.financial markets are plainly unconvinced by what the Government
:01:30. > :01:36.says it will do to sort out its massive debts. We will speak with
:01:36. > :01:41.the Spanish Ambassador, but first, we have this report.
:01:41. > :01:45.Greece may have monopolised the headlines in the crisis so far, but
:01:45. > :01:48.Spain is now a genuine concern. Its economy is huge and it is in free
:01:48. > :01:52.fall. Unemployment is the highest in the developed world, industrial
:01:52. > :01:59.output is fall, and austerity almost as draconian as Greece, is
:01:59. > :02:08.on its way. And the Prime Minister, jog jog jog,
:02:08. > :02:13.after admitting Spain -- -- today lashed out at his EU neighbours,
:02:13. > :02:18.particularly Italy, for stoking up market fears. TRANSLATION: I wish
:02:18. > :02:22.to say the following with regard to some statements made in the EU,
:02:22. > :02:25.more explicitly last night by some EU leaders. We hope they assume
:02:25. > :02:29.their responsibilities and are much more cautious in their statements.
:02:29. > :02:38.We don't talk about other countries, we wish other EU and eurozone
:02:38. > :02:43.countries the best. What is good for Spain is good for the eurozone.
:02:43. > :02:47.He and his centre right party were elected over four months ago with a
:02:47. > :02:53.resounding majority, much of that was due to the intense dislike of
:02:53. > :03:02.the outgoing socialist, that a ground dwell in favour of the
:03:02. > :03:06.slightly dour Rajoy. None of them will accuse him of sugar coating
:03:06. > :03:11.the austerity pill. Is he burning through his political capital as he
:03:11. > :03:15.tries to right the Spanish ship? He's coming short of delivering the
:03:15. > :03:19.goods by what we have seen so far. It is clear with the market
:03:19. > :03:23.turbulence in the last few days, that the markets think it is not
:03:23. > :03:26.enough. Spain has serious problems, both in the banking sector and the
:03:26. > :03:30.public sector finances. Both balance sheets of the banking
:03:30. > :03:33.sector and the public sector are hard to disentangle, as a result we
:03:33. > :03:40.have a crisis of confidence in the ability of Spain to restore growth,
:03:41. > :03:43.and so we are in trouble. Like Ireland, Spain's problem was a
:03:43. > :03:47.massive property bubble that burst, that collapse has dragged the
:03:47. > :03:51.national Government down with it. Unlike Ireland, Spain has yet to
:03:51. > :03:56.bite the bullet on wholesale reform of its banks. Especially its
:03:56. > :04:00.regional savings banks. The problem with the Spanish debt
:04:00. > :04:02.mountain is it is more akin to the iceberg, what you see on the
:04:02. > :04:06.surface is the money owed by the national Government, and doesn't
:04:06. > :04:12.include the money borrowed, from places like the City of London, by
:04:12. > :04:18.regional parliaments and Governments. The debt to GDP ratio
:04:18. > :04:22.for the federal Government is GDP, the figure for Catalonia is closer
:04:22. > :04:26.to 120%, that is a problem that needs solving soon. Recognition of
:04:26. > :04:29.the indebtedness of the regions in Spain is a major problem that
:04:29. > :04:33.probably hasn't been fully discounted into the financial
:04:33. > :04:39.markets at this stage. I think the market is going to come to an
:04:39. > :04:43.estimate for all of Spain bailout on a regional level. That could be
:04:43. > :04:47.the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the need for
:04:47. > :04:55.European public financing. Spain disappeared off our eurozone
:04:55. > :04:59.radars for a few months, because the market were stewfied by cheap
:04:59. > :05:02.EC money. The benchmark cost of borrowing for Spain had been rising
:05:02. > :05:06.steadily until last November, before falling dramatically when
:05:06. > :05:09.the first wave of cheap loans were offered. The process was repeated
:05:10. > :05:14.at the end of February, that pushed down yields. Now it looks like the
:05:14. > :05:18.drug is wearing off, and Spain might soon be doing very cold
:05:18. > :05:23.turkey, making the possibility of a bailout very real. Does the
:05:23. > :05:27.eurozone even have the money to bail out its fourth-largest member.
:05:27. > :05:31.If it happens in the next few months, I think the Europeans will
:05:31. > :05:39.be approaching it on a piecemeal level. They will be addressing the
:05:39. > :05:42.specifics of say the Cajas, or the regions, as long as it is done on a
:05:42. > :05:47.step-by-step basis, there is ample funding now. If you were look, say,
:05:47. > :05:52.and had a time machine, and were to look backwards at the all-inclusive
:05:52. > :05:54.costs of the bailout, what it ultimately might cost for the
:05:54. > :05:59.Europeans, you probably wouldn't have that amount of funding
:05:59. > :06:03.available at this stage. But while Brussels and Berlin check
:06:03. > :06:07.their wallets, they will, no doubt, be asking whether the Spanish
:06:07. > :06:12.populus has the stomach for the drop in living standards demanded.
:06:12. > :06:17.It will be difficult in Spain, especially because any cuts in
:06:17. > :06:23.health and education will hit with the regional Governments and that
:06:23. > :06:29.will create a lot of anger and intense sentiment. We are already
:06:29. > :06:34.seeing the regions claiming their territory, and saying they will not
:06:34. > :06:38.take those cuts. It is going to be much harder than in a smaller and
:06:38. > :06:45.more centralised country like Greece or Portugal.
:06:45. > :06:50.If you were to take a glass half full attitude, you might say that
:06:50. > :06:56.Mr Rajoy's comments of late are a political ruse to soften up the
:06:56. > :07:00.Spanish public. If your glass is half empty, you could view the
:07:00. > :07:05.recent events in Spain as a restarting of the European crisis
:07:05. > :07:09.and one that could have far worse impact for the rest of us. Here to
:07:09. > :07:13.talk about Spain's financial turmoil is the spannic ambassador
:07:13. > :07:15.to the UK. This assurance that your economics minutes -- Spanish
:07:15. > :07:20.Ambassador to the UK. This assurance that your economics
:07:20. > :07:25.minister has given, that there is no need for a rescue at this time,
:07:25. > :07:31.how long is that valid for? I hope forever. But there is no guarantee,
:07:31. > :07:38.is there? There is no guarantee of anything. We know that the eurozone
:07:38. > :07:44.is undergoing a difficult situation, we know that Spain has a fragile
:07:44. > :07:50.economy, but Spain is doing all it takes, and is prepared to do all it
:07:50. > :07:53.takes to avoid a rescue and bailout. There has been a pattern of finance
:07:53. > :07:58.ministers, or prime ministers, saying we do not envisage any need
:07:58. > :08:02.for a rescue, and then the rest cue, of course, happens. It happened --
:08:02. > :08:05.rescue, of course, happens. It happened in Portugal and Greece,
:08:05. > :08:09.and in Ireland, two days after the Prime Minister said there was no
:08:09. > :08:19.need for it. The Finance Minister has to deny. But in our case, let's
:08:19. > :08:21.
:08:21. > :08:25.see, we have no big auction, no big bond auctions coming up now. More
:08:25. > :08:32.or less we have the impression it will be fully subscribed, and then
:08:32. > :08:37.the next time is in July. Our situation is difficult, we are
:08:37. > :08:42.struggling, it is not, the Spanish economy is not the only one in
:08:43. > :08:50.Europe that is struggling. But, the Government is taking all the
:08:50. > :08:54.measures that we think are needed to ensure first that no bailout is
:08:54. > :08:58.necessary, and second, to pave the way for economic growth in the near
:08:58. > :09:02.future. We know that we are going to contract, our economy is going
:09:02. > :09:06.to contract. We will come to growth in a minute
:09:06. > :09:12.or two, there is a really big problem here, isn't there? How much
:09:12. > :09:21.of public spending is actually controlled by central Government?
:09:21. > :09:25.Much more than is thought here, central Government controls about
:09:25. > :09:31.70 %. That means there is 30% or more that is not under the control
:09:31. > :09:36.of central Government, and is...Well, But regional Governments
:09:36. > :09:42.are under the control of some of the big parties, and both of them
:09:42. > :09:46.are committed. No, there is no doubt, there is full commitment by
:09:46. > :09:49.all, both the central Government, and the regional Government. Is it
:09:49. > :09:55.not the case when Catalonia, for example, was asked to reduce its
:09:55. > :10:01.budget deficit to 1.3%, it said it can't do that and it will go to
:10:01. > :10:08.2.6%, and came in at 3.7%? Perhaps not that much. But Catalonia has
:10:08. > :10:12.taken huge measure, and will continue to take huge measures. In
:10:12. > :10:18.Catalonia the Government has taken measures concerning the health
:10:18. > :10:21.system, public servants' pay, and they are prepared to take those
:10:21. > :10:26.measures. Let's look at the question of growth, then, you say
:10:26. > :10:29.that will be the solution, half of young people in Spain under the age
:10:29. > :10:36.of 25 are unemployed, aren't they, how do you get growth when you have
:10:36. > :10:40.that sort of problem? A huge problem we have. Unemployment.
:10:40. > :10:44.Perhaps our biggest problem. Depending on the way you look at it,
:10:45. > :10:52.the problem is not as big as it looks. Yes, if you take, for
:10:52. > :10:57.instance, a number of hours actually worked in the economy, if
:10:57. > :11:04.you take the percentage of the total possible hours worked, in
:11:04. > :11:11.Germany, for instance, you will see that out of the total number of
:11:11. > :11:20.hours that all people between 15-65 could work, they work 52% of the
:11:20. > :11:26.hours. In France 46%, in Spain 48%. So we have a huge problem, because
:11:26. > :11:31.our labour laws don't allow for part-time jobs, things like this.
:11:31. > :11:36.But the Government has taken both measures to correct this.
:11:36. > :11:41.Thank you very much. Now, as mysteries go, it takes some
:11:41. > :11:44.beating, a charismatic political lead e tipped as a future leader of
:11:44. > :11:50.the most populus nation on earth is sacked, his wife accused of
:11:50. > :11:55.involvement in the mysterious death of an Englishman. The Chinese state
:11:55. > :12:03.media did what they were told and justified the removal of the rising
:12:03. > :12:13.star, Mr. Something very unusual has happened, it is not easy to
:12:13. > :12:16.
:12:16. > :12:21.find out the details of what and why. In this ancient Chinese game,
:12:21. > :12:26.the object is to surround your opponent, to make his next move
:12:26. > :12:34.impossible and eliminate him. Now, amid allegations of murder, it
:12:34. > :12:40.looks like China's leaders are playing the game for real.
:12:40. > :12:50.Chongqing, a city of 30 million, ruled until now, by one man.
:12:50. > :12:52.
:12:52. > :12:58.Capitol Hill Capitol Hill Capitol Hill, rose through - Bo Xilai rose
:12:58. > :13:02.through the ranks and taught people to sing revolutionary songs. He's
:13:02. > :13:05.an unusual politician in China. If China were a democracy, Bo Xilai
:13:06. > :13:10.would probably stand a very good chance of being elected. He can
:13:10. > :13:18.connect with people. He cracked down hard on organised crime, he
:13:19. > :13:22.appealed in a sort of populist way to Maoist traditional feelings in
:13:22. > :13:30.China. This year, with an imminent change
:13:30. > :13:40.in the party leadership, Bo looked set to win a place within the inner
:13:40. > :13:40.
:13:40. > :13:47.core of the Politburo. Now he would be lucky to avoid criminal charges.
:13:47. > :13:50.China's leaders are halved between the Communist Party and those who
:13:50. > :13:55.are rhetorical, left-wing, hardliners, a game actually played
:13:55. > :14:01.out. Bo threatened to play it out in public, and with mass
:14:01. > :14:04.participation. But somebody, somewhere, made a fatal false move.
:14:04. > :14:09.Last November, Neil Heywood, a British businessman and friend of
:14:09. > :14:13.Bo Xilai, was found dead in a hotel in Chongqing, the authorities
:14:13. > :14:21.claimed it was alcohol poisoning, his body was cremated without
:14:21. > :14:27.autopsy. Then, in February, this man, Wang
:14:27. > :14:34.Lijun, Bo security chief, entered a US kol sul late building to claim
:14:34. > :14:40.political asylum. He claimed he was investigating the death and had
:14:40. > :14:48.discovered evidence that angered Bo and feared for his life. After the
:14:48. > :14:52.Chinese premier criticised Bo, he was striped of his title, and his
:14:52. > :14:57.wife named as the chief suspect in the murder. Others are convinced
:14:57. > :15:00.there is a bigger story. This is not a murder case, even though
:15:01. > :15:05.somebody might or might not have been murdered, we don't know if Mr
:15:05. > :15:12.Heywood was murdered. The whole thing is largely political, it
:15:12. > :15:16.started with Mr Bo's top Lieutenant going to the US consulate to seek
:15:16. > :15:21.political asylum, which would then make him a traitor, and therefore
:15:21. > :15:28.provide the opportunity for Mr Bo's enemies in the top leadership to
:15:28. > :15:31.strike him down. When Mr Bo lost his job, as the party secretary in
:15:31. > :15:35.Chongqing. The British Government, which has been pressing for an
:15:35. > :15:39.investigation into Neil Heywood's death, welcomed the move. On the
:15:39. > :15:43.case of Neil Heywood, we did ask the Chinese to hold an
:15:43. > :15:47.investigation, and we are pleased that they are now doing that. And
:15:47. > :15:51.we stand ready to co-operate in any way we can. I think it is important
:15:51. > :15:56.we get to the truth about what happened in this very disturbing
:15:56. > :16:00.case, very tragic case. But where does this leave the west's wider
:16:00. > :16:05.relationship with China. This man spend 30 years at the Foreign
:16:05. > :16:11.Office covering the country. Do you think the west gives credence to
:16:11. > :16:16.the essential story? In a sense you have to. Because the mind boggles
:16:16. > :16:22.at anything else. But there are huge gaps in that story, quite why
:16:22. > :16:28.people acted as they did, quite what the falling out was over. Why
:16:28. > :16:34.someone as powerful as Bo Xilai's wife, let alone himself, should
:16:34. > :16:36.feel it necessary to have this really unfortunate businessman,
:16:36. > :16:39.Neil Heywood, murdered, it is extraordinary, what can drive
:16:39. > :16:45.someone to do that. And to expect that they can get away with it,
:16:45. > :16:49.that is the sort of arrogance of power, that is one of the worries I
:16:49. > :16:52.think that the Chinese Communist Party have. If these people can
:16:52. > :16:57.behave like that to a foreigner, how on earth are they behave to go
:16:57. > :17:01.the people of China. When you meet Chinese officials, they will
:17:01. > :17:04.sometimes speak quietly about this division within the party. They
:17:04. > :17:08.assume the power blocks could co- exist together, and all
:17:08. > :17:11.transsignificants of power at the top would be orderly and negotiate
:17:11. > :17:15.-- transitions of power at the top would be orderly and negotiated.
:17:15. > :17:21.The strange case of Bo Xilai, to put it mildly, complicates things.
:17:21. > :17:27.What we are, in fact, seeing, is the kind of old fashioned court
:17:27. > :17:33.politics, that would one perhaps have seen in the European court,
:17:33. > :17:35.400 or 500 years ago. We are not seeing China moving in the
:17:35. > :17:43.direction of institutionalisation of its politics, that everybody
:17:43. > :17:48.would like to see. The events in Chongqing remain like
:17:48. > :17:52.the city, shrouded in fog. What is clear is for the first time since
:17:52. > :17:58.1989, there is a split in the leadership. And how the game ends
:17:58. > :18:04.is unpredictable. With us to discuss the many
:18:04. > :18:10.mysteries of the story are Martin Jakes, author of When China Rules
:18:10. > :18:16.the world, Dr Linda Lui, and the professor of international politics
:18:16. > :18:20.at the University of Bristol. How significant an event is this?
:18:20. > :18:26.very important, because ever since Tiananmen Square, and when the
:18:26. > :18:31.general secretary was turfed out by Xaoping, there hasn't been anything
:18:31. > :18:39.like this at the highest level, nearly the highest level of Chinese
:18:39. > :18:45.politics. Bo Xilai is clearly meeting his political demise, but,
:18:45. > :18:49.the backdrop to all of this is a major struggle taking place in the
:18:49. > :18:52.Chinese leadership, over the leadership emerging from the party
:18:52. > :18:57.conference in autumn, and secondly, over the policies to be pursued by
:18:57. > :19:01.the new leadership. Do you see it in much the same terms as a power
:19:01. > :19:04.stringle? It definitely reflects the fact that the Communist Party
:19:04. > :19:09.within itself has had a number of factions. It is just the glimpse we
:19:09. > :19:16.are getting, that is interesting. Is it ideolgical, or just about
:19:16. > :19:19.naked power? Well, if I had to venture a punt on that, I would say
:19:19. > :19:23.naked power. Bo Xilai was associated with a lot more moves
:19:23. > :19:31.towards a state-led, investment model. He was popular, in the sense
:19:31. > :19:34.that he was talking about a -- an era of equality which a lot of
:19:34. > :19:39.Chinese people like because of the inequality. If you strip it back,
:19:39. > :19:45.he was clearly somebody who was a rising star. But the last time I
:19:45. > :19:51.was in China, that most policy makers knew who the next generation
:19:51. > :19:55.of leaders would be, he was josling for position. Do you think we will
:19:55. > :19:58.see -- Josling for position. Do you think we will see more? This is not
:19:58. > :20:03.the end of the scandal of this event that we are looking at now.
:20:03. > :20:09.What is interesting, of course, is this drama, attached today this,
:20:09. > :20:13.partly because of this murder case, and also the defection of the
:20:13. > :20:22.police chief, again and also involving a murder of a foreign
:20:22. > :20:28.national, which is a British businessman. All we see when we see
:20:28. > :20:34.the Chinese leadership s late middleaged men, in identical suits,
:20:34. > :20:43.using identical hair dye. It opens up something fascinating. They are
:20:43. > :20:50.not middleaged, they are all in their 60s. This is part of the
:20:50. > :20:57.political transition we are looking at. It is certainly not, as has
:20:57. > :21:02.been comment, this is not what we have anticipated. We all thought at
:21:02. > :21:07.some stage that the political axe sgs in China was happening, and --
:21:07. > :21:10.accession in China was happening, and this fourth or fifth generation
:21:10. > :21:13.transition would be smooth, now we don't know what is next. It is
:21:14. > :21:18.taking place in a completely changed world, which people are
:21:18. > :21:21.tweeting and communicating, social media and all the rest. It is
:21:21. > :21:26.fascinating. One thing that is very interesting, is the extent to which
:21:26. > :21:31.this has become public, and it is being discussed and known about in
:21:31. > :21:35.real time, as opposed to way after the event, which used to be much
:21:35. > :21:41.more the case. What is this a result of? It is the result of the
:21:41. > :21:46.opening up of Chinese society, internet, microblogs, a less
:21:47. > :21:51.sensored media, and so on. Now -- censored media, and so on. Now the
:21:51. > :21:54.Chinese have more access to the key debates. This is a big problem for
:21:54. > :21:59.the leadership, if people know about it? Yes, I think one of the
:21:59. > :22:03.issues here is they are going to have to get used to T increasing
:22:03. > :22:08.transparency is -- to it, increasing transparency is
:22:08. > :22:11.something they can't return the clock back on. It is such high
:22:11. > :22:15.publicity, involving a foreigner, and there will be more instances
:22:15. > :22:20.where China will have to become more open about the kinds of issues
:22:20. > :22:25.that this case poses, corruption, succession, responsiveness,
:22:25. > :22:28.ideology, development, these are all things, as they become more
:22:28. > :22:31.globally integrated, foreign investors, foreigners dealing with
:22:31. > :22:35.China, will want to see more and they will have to respond to that.
:22:35. > :22:41.We will come to that in a minute or two. Do you know anything about how
:22:41. > :22:47.it is being seen seen within China? You have a whole spectrum of
:22:47. > :22:50.different opinions, obviously. You have some kind of supporters of Bo
:22:50. > :22:57.Xilai's policies, the policies for equal and social justice, that
:22:57. > :23:00.Linda has just commented on. Also you have the other spectrum, which
:23:00. > :23:07.obviously looks at his manoeuvring for leadership position. So you
:23:07. > :23:14.have a spectrum of, which is reflected in the microblock, and
:23:14. > :23:18.the comments. You have billions of people using, 250 people -- 250
:23:18. > :23:23.million people using that. Everybody is talking about Bo Xilai,
:23:23. > :23:26.and what led to his downfall, and what this tells them about Chinese
:23:26. > :23:32.politics. Then we have this intriguing element of this
:23:32. > :23:39.unfortunate man who died in China, the circumstances are very opaque.,
:23:39. > :23:42.given that the economy so much depends, upon, or has depended on
:23:42. > :23:47.western involvement, not perhaps the primary challenge now, what
:23:47. > :23:52.will it do to the way western businesses regard China? How they
:23:52. > :24:01.handle it will be crucially important. This does come on the
:24:01. > :24:04.back of the executive of Mr Hu, imprisoned in China a few years ago.
:24:04. > :24:08.The ability of the Chinese Government to continue to show,
:24:08. > :24:11.even if they are not an and democracy, but have increasingly
:24:11. > :24:15.improved rule of law and transparency of that process, will
:24:16. > :24:19.be crucial. If you look at what China needs now, I would say they
:24:19. > :24:22.need global integration, beau the reason they have grown so quickly
:24:22. > :24:25.is because they integrated and caught up on manufacturing, the
:24:25. > :24:30.next phase of growth requires doing the same thing on services. That
:24:30. > :24:33.means for moreeners, more engagment with the global market. I think one
:24:34. > :24:39.of the things that China has lagged behind on is reforming rule of law
:24:39. > :24:47.to catch up with the economic reforms. The fact that his wife has
:24:47. > :24:53.been arrested, is she going to get a fair trial. Is the arrest an
:24:53. > :24:58.indication of guilt, how does it work? Obviously they have very
:24:58. > :25:03.strong evidence, we could see from the report, even by the Chinese
:25:03. > :25:10.media, and from the police chief, you know, we don't really know what
:25:10. > :25:13.he has talked with the American consulate. From the reports from
:25:13. > :25:18.the Chinese media they already have some kind of evidence. This case
:25:18. > :25:22.will be cut niceed, not only by chine -- scrutinised, not only by
:25:22. > :25:27.the Chinese media, but globally. I would expect a rather fair trial of
:25:27. > :25:34.this particular case, at least. the outcome in doubt, the outcome
:25:34. > :25:42.of the trial? Why should it be in doubt. So the judiciary is
:25:42. > :25:46.independent? Well, I think they will present this as independent,
:25:46. > :25:51.as they possibly can. This has a lot to do with the image of China.
:25:51. > :25:56.How do you think the trial will go? I wouldn't be too optimistic,
:25:56. > :26:01.myself. But I think that if they have already arrested her, they
:26:01. > :26:06.have said she is being held by the judicial authorities, that is the
:26:06. > :26:11.phrase. I think that they have already, and what they have already
:26:11. > :26:17.put out about it, for the murder of Neil Heywood and so on. I think
:26:17. > :26:25.that it is going, she will be found guilty. And she may well be guilty,
:26:25. > :26:29.I think she will be found guilty. The Syrian Government, if you can
:26:29. > :26:33.believe them. Says its guns will fall silent at dawn tomorrow. The
:26:33. > :26:37.time specified for a ceasefire by the United Nations' representative
:26:37. > :26:41.in the region. The regime reserved the right, though, to resume
:26:41. > :26:45.killing its own citizens, if it faced any opposition. It didn't
:26:45. > :26:49.undertake to one of the requests to withdraw troops from built-up areas.
:26:49. > :26:53.Western countries wring their hands, unable to agree what to do, and
:26:53. > :26:58.knowing the Syrian regime has the support of Russia on the UN
:26:58. > :27:02.Security Council. Speaking tonight, Hillary Clinton, expressed unease
:27:02. > :27:12.about whether the ceasefire in Syria would hold. We are alarmed
:27:12. > :27:14.
:27:14. > :27:19.for the on going violence in Syria, we are concerned about the problems
:27:19. > :27:24.facing special envoy, Kofi Annan, as he attempts to bring about a
:27:24. > :27:31.ceasefire. Senator John McCain has just visited the Syrian border, he
:27:31. > :27:34.can talk to us from Arizona. Let me play devil's advocate, Syria is a
:27:34. > :27:39.sovereign country, there are serious problems of unrest on the
:27:39. > :27:48.streets there. Why is the regime there not to be allowed to deploy
:27:48. > :27:53.its own forces to restore law and order? Because according to
:27:53. > :27:59.international law, and all norms of behaviour, is Governments are not
:27:59. > :28:03.allowed to massacre their own citizens, especially in the wanton
:28:03. > :28:09.way that the Bashar al-Assad's regime is conducting itself. It is
:28:09. > :28:18.a violation of UN charters, other provisions of international law.
:28:18. > :28:22.What help do you propose that the rest of the world gives the rebels?
:28:22. > :28:30.Well, first of all, we have to understand it's not a fair fight.
:28:30. > :28:33.Russian arms are pouring in to Syria. Iranians are not only
:28:33. > :28:37.providing them with assistance in a material way, there are Iranians on
:28:37. > :28:42.the ground, they are helping them with the terrible obscene murder,
:28:42. > :28:47.rape, torture that is going on. And so, it is not a fair fight. It is a
:28:47. > :28:52.fight. What we need to do is give them weaponry, and by the way, we
:28:52. > :29:02.can find ways to get the weapons to them, I met with two military
:29:02. > :29:03.
:29:03. > :29:10.leaders of the Free Syrian Army, right across the border from Syria
:29:10. > :29:15.in tuarky. We can get them that -- Turkey, we can get them the
:29:15. > :29:19.equipment and can help with medical care. The Turkish are talking about
:29:19. > :29:25.a sanctuary for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National
:29:25. > :29:30.Council, so they can organise, so they can come together, and they
:29:31. > :29:37.can resist in a co-ordinated fashion. That would be a sanctuary
:29:37. > :29:42.within Syria? Not necessarily. I think it could be a sanctuary
:29:42. > :29:51.across the borders of one of the neighbouring countries.
:29:51. > :29:57.Would you be in favour of western forces protecting that sanctuary?
:29:57. > :30:01.Yes I would. I know that many people are watching now saying we
:30:01. > :30:05.don't know who they are, we don't know how to do it, that this is a
:30:05. > :30:11.very difficult situation, Americans are war-weary, I have heard all of
:30:11. > :30:18.those arguments, I heard them with Libya and Bosnia, and Kosovo. But
:30:18. > :30:22.the fundamental belief that we share is that Governments should
:30:22. > :30:29.not be allowed to massacre their own people. If we can do something
:30:29. > :30:32.about it. There is plenty to do about it. As I said, it is an
:30:32. > :30:40.unfair fight. How long do you expect the ceasefire to last,
:30:40. > :30:44.briefly? Maybe 15-minutes. Because the people will take to the streets
:30:44. > :30:51.again, and peacefully demonstrate, and Bashar al-Assad cannot tolerate
:30:51. > :30:56.that. Already they have imposed conditions which are clearly
:30:56. > :31:01.unacceptable. Mr Annan, I think, is dwelling in a different parallel
:31:01. > :31:04.universe, when he says that he's worried about the militarisation of
:31:04. > :31:08.the conflict. Thank you very much indeed, thank
:31:08. > :31:13.you. They were the boast of the United
:31:13. > :31:17.Nations, enthusiastically embraced as a mission for Governments the
:31:17. > :31:22.world over, and providing the Department of Development in this
:31:22. > :31:27.country a reason to exist. They are the Millennium Development Goals,
:31:27. > :31:32.the agreement of 200 countries, that they would mark the end of the
:31:32. > :31:36.century by ending extreme poverty, and improving women's rights.
:31:36. > :31:40.Nobody questioned the noblity of the aim. But Newsnight has learned
:31:40. > :31:44.that David Cameron has been asked to redraft those goals.
:31:44. > :31:48.What's going on? He will redraft them. It will be nonsensical if the
:31:48. > :31:51.UK did it on its own, given the nature of the goals. I have been
:31:51. > :31:55.told it is highly likely a country like Brazil will co-chair it, there
:31:55. > :31:59.may be others, it is certainly the UK at the moment. It will be
:31:59. > :32:03.announced next week, it is within the gift of the UN, and we can't
:32:03. > :32:06.just take it ourselves. In the words of the cabinet minister for
:32:06. > :32:09.international development, the UK is a development superpower, it is
:32:09. > :32:13.what we do. We do a lot of these around. We don't always get it
:32:13. > :32:17.right, we are trusted with technical projects, it is seen that
:32:17. > :32:21.we understand what we are doing, that is why we are being given a
:32:21. > :32:25.role in drafting new versions. is going to happen to the goals?
:32:25. > :32:29.the moment, if you look at them, there is one to reduce infant
:32:30. > :32:37.mortality, an aim for primary education, but not secondary.
:32:37. > :32:38.Decrease malaria within countries. People say these are sword of
:32:38. > :32:41.secondary issues, incredibly important -- sort of secondary
:32:41. > :32:45.issues, incredibly important, but not the way to improve the
:32:45. > :32:48.situation of a country. As an NGO you go into a country and sort that
:32:48. > :32:51.out, but not as a national leader within that country do that sort of
:32:51. > :32:55.things necessarily on your own. What they are trying to do is push
:32:55. > :32:59.for economic development to be at the heart of these new goals. For
:33:00. > :33:03.instance, it is long argued that you should have property rights as
:33:03. > :33:08.one of the ambitions, so you actually have people with assets
:33:08. > :33:10.who can develop on their own within a country, and things like primary
:33:10. > :33:12.and secondary education flowing from it. That is what the
:33:12. > :33:17.Government thinks. What do you think it will look like if the
:33:17. > :33:21.Government gets their way? Some of them we see today will go, some are
:33:21. > :33:24.meaningless. There will be the property rights, an emphasis on
:33:25. > :33:28.reducing trade barriers within continents like Africa. There might
:33:28. > :33:32.be an assertion of job creation and wealth creation, this is much more
:33:32. > :33:36.in terms it of all those boats being lifted by rising tides, that
:33:36. > :33:39.old proverb. That is not liked by many people. Also, really critical,
:33:39. > :33:42.there will be, and bear in mind this is the beginning of a
:33:42. > :33:46.consultation process, that everyone will kick off on. There might be
:33:46. > :33:48.some emphasis on conditionality. The idea at the moment these goals
:33:49. > :33:53.are meaningless, because people have to do them rather than aid
:33:53. > :33:57.being linked to it, maybe that should change in the future, as
:33:57. > :34:00.what People of Freedom in Government do think. The shadow of
:34:00. > :34:05.the -- People in Government do think.
:34:05. > :34:09.In France each of those want to go win the presidency, darkly warned
:34:09. > :34:14.the French people of what might happen if they return the wrong
:34:14. > :34:20.conclusion to return the men in built-up heels. President Sarkozy
:34:20. > :34:30.has rained over the loss of the trip all A rating, his opposition
:34:30. > :34:32.
:34:32. > :34:36.say they can return that. How will Sarkozy try to save his presidency?
:34:36. > :34:42.A few hours east of Paris, deep in rural France, there is a shrine, to
:34:43. > :34:47.a man and his ideology. General Charles de Gaulle lived and
:34:47. > :34:51.died here, leaving behind a powerful idea of France.
:34:51. > :34:56.His views on how the country should be run are still so influential
:34:56. > :35:03.that, apparently, his heir as leader of the Gaullist movement,
:35:03. > :35:08.comes here to commune with his spirit. TRANSLATION: President
:35:08. > :35:13.Sarkozy often comes alone to this place, it is for him, as it was for
:35:13. > :35:18.General de Gaulle, an ideal place for reflection. Learning about de
:35:18. > :35:23.Gaulle is part of the syllabus for French schools. To these children,
:35:23. > :35:27.he was a war leader, who embodied national unity.
:35:27. > :35:35.Later, they learn about how he put France on the European and world
:35:35. > :35:41.stage, as well as fostering a welfare state. Today, Nicolas
:35:41. > :35:45.Sarkozy, cites de Gaulle often, but is that anything more than here
:35:45. > :35:50.lip-service. At the start of his foof-year term, he seemed determine
:35:50. > :35:56.to -- five-year term, he seemed determine a new politics,
:35:56. > :36:01.determined to shake up the state in his presidency. The way he started
:36:01. > :36:06.as President was childish, he gave the impression was playing with
:36:06. > :36:15.power, and Nicolas Sarkozy almost never envokes the greatness of
:36:15. > :36:21.France. La grandeur, like de Gaulle says,
:36:21. > :36:26.it is not in his project. Nevertheless, he certainly
:36:26. > :36:36.considers Germany and France as the leaders, the legitimate leaders of
:36:36. > :36:39.Europe. President de Gaulle had a very
:36:39. > :36:43.well-defined idea of what France should represent, and of its place
:36:43. > :36:48.at the head of the nations of Europe. But today, as the country
:36:48. > :36:56.heads for presidential elections, its national self-confidence has
:36:56. > :36:59.been bat bird the economic crisis. And the standard bearer of Gaullism,
:36:59. > :37:08.President Sarkozy, is accused of losing his way, and not knowing
:37:08. > :37:14.what on earth he stands for. Sarkozy Askam pain styles are a
:37:14. > :37:19.world away from -- Sarkozy's campaign styles are a world away
:37:19. > :37:23.from the country ways, and General de Gaulle. Most French people want
:37:23. > :37:28.to protect their own lifestyle, the President is behind in the polls.
:37:28. > :37:35.His position is hardly helped by the message that gaining economic
:37:35. > :37:40.vitally will require them to adopt foreign models. In Europe there is
:37:40. > :37:44.two models. The Swedish model and German model, cutting spending and
:37:44. > :37:48.reforming our economy, so it will be more competitive. That is, of
:37:48. > :37:53.course, a German or Sweden model. There is another model, it has
:37:53. > :38:00.become the Greek model, it is a model where you choose to make even
:38:00. > :38:05.more spending during the following years, and making more spending,
:38:05. > :38:11.you raise taxes to, I don't know, rocketing level. And this is not
:38:11. > :38:17.the good model. President Sarkozy started this
:38:17. > :38:21.contest far behind in the polls. So he unleashed a series of messages
:38:21. > :38:26.about security, immigration, and identity, that were designed to
:38:26. > :38:30.bring him support from the far right. But in the process he has
:38:30. > :38:34.alienated many in the centre and on the left, who say he's ignoring the
:38:34. > :38:40.real issues people say they care about in polls, as well as
:38:40. > :38:47.discarding the Gaullist tradition of national unity.
:38:47. > :38:55.We are social and democratic people. Gaullist and communist agree about
:38:56. > :39:02.that, de Gaulle says, at this time, we don't discriminate people from
:39:02. > :39:10.origin, race and religion. Sarkozy, it is the end of Gaullism. It is
:39:10. > :39:14.the death of all this tradition in the right in France.
:39:14. > :39:19.Even so, Socialist Party leader, Francois Hollande, is still set to
:39:19. > :39:25.beat Sarkozy in any run-off. He's a sort of Ed Milliband, in wonkiness,
:39:25. > :39:29.only the polls suggest Hollande is a winner. He promises to keep the
:39:29. > :39:36.French model welfare state alive, even if it means renegotiating the
:39:36. > :39:40.European austerity deal that Sarkozy signed up to in December.
:39:40. > :39:45.Monsieur Hollande's supporters suggest that would not bring
:39:45. > :39:50.disaster. If he's elected, far from being certain, I'm sure the first
:39:50. > :39:54.thing he will do is ask for a report on the real situation of the
:39:54. > :39:58.French finances. And act accordingly. I will advice him to
:39:58. > :40:02.do it so, the only -- advise him to do it so, the only way not to bear
:40:02. > :40:07.the burden of the cuts will be to do it immediately, just after the
:40:07. > :40:11.election. I'm sure he will do it. I'm sure, by the way, that Sarkozy
:40:11. > :40:16.will do it also. Further to the left of Hollande, this man seeks to
:40:16. > :40:22.protect the French social model with the same steely determination,
:40:22. > :40:26.at which he coraled the press at his policy launch.
:40:26. > :40:33.Jean-Luc Melenchon represents the left front. He's against the
:40:33. > :40:36.Americans, NATO, the markets and the EU. TRANSLATION: Of course it
:40:36. > :40:43.is complicated, and I don't hide from you that when it was present
:40:43. > :40:48.today me, I felt it contains a vision I like to call Jacobean, it
:40:48. > :40:52.is not an insult but honour to be called that. It is extraordinary
:40:52. > :40:58.after two hours of listening to Mr Melenchon how extensively his ideas
:40:58. > :41:02.about what France should stand for, are informed by ideas of
:41:02. > :41:05.exceptionalism. France's unique place in the world, that really go
:41:05. > :41:10.back to General de Gaulle, and a certain type of nationalism, which
:41:10. > :41:14.I don't think many of us would expect to see on what formally
:41:14. > :41:18.would have been -- formerly would have been called the far left. His
:41:18. > :41:22.rejection of austerity, has contributed to a steady rise in the
:41:23. > :41:28.polls. TRANSLATION: Austerity is a
:41:28. > :41:32.strategy of international finance that is shared by French liberals,
:41:32. > :41:36.we say the Anglo-Saxons like facts. The fact is austerity will release
:41:37. > :41:39.a recession in all of Europe, which will lead us into a disaster, by
:41:39. > :41:49.keeping down the salaries of the working-class and maximising
:41:49. > :41:50.
:41:50. > :41:55.profits. The critque of President Sarkozy extends to his probity too.
:41:55. > :41:58.At Mediapart, an on-line newspaper, they have accused the President of
:41:58. > :42:03.taking contributions from Libya and big business during his 2007
:42:03. > :42:07.campaign. At the morning meeting, they follow
:42:07. > :42:14.this contest, arguing that Sarkozy has to win to stay ahead of the
:42:14. > :42:23.investigators. You know, in France, the President
:42:23. > :42:30.has traditional immunity, if he loses, all of it must come, the
:42:30. > :42:39.cabinet and I must ask some questions. Because all the figures
:42:39. > :42:44.are very surprising. It is not small money. It is millions. Many
:42:45. > :42:51.millions of euros. The murders in Toulouse were seen
:42:51. > :42:55.by some as a game changer. In his role as President, he attended
:42:55. > :42:58.memorial events, and articulated the nation's outrage. He also
:42:58. > :43:02.played -- it also played into Sarkozy's security agenda, allowed
:43:02. > :43:07.him to rise above the funding allegations, he denies them any way,
:43:07. > :43:14.and final low demonstrate the maturity of his years in the top
:43:14. > :43:19.job. Everybody was standing still behind the President to say, we are
:43:19. > :43:22.all French, and this is the French people, and we will resist violence,
:43:22. > :43:27.we will resist hatred, that was the message of the President, and he
:43:27. > :43:34.was really the President of all the French people. You can observe an
:43:34. > :43:41.important change. The first year of his presidency was very agitated,
:43:41. > :43:51.and he was exposing his personal life and in fact, this agitation
:43:51. > :43:52.
:43:52. > :43:57.has largely stopped. At his campaign rallies, this one
:43:57. > :44:07.for the party youth movement, President Sarkozy emphasises
:44:07. > :44:10.
:44:10. > :44:16.experience, and competence. If these people loved it, the
:44:16. > :44:20.public is more skept quell. So the negative -- sceptical, so the
:44:20. > :44:24.negative campaign tactics extend to suggesting the front runner,
:44:24. > :44:34.Francois Hollande, could destroy international economic confidence
:44:34. > :44:34.
:44:34. > :44:39.in France. Francois Hollande has a problem, for me, of credibility. On
:44:39. > :44:43.financial issues, deficit issues, and international issues.
:44:43. > :44:49.But what of Sarkozy himself? And his many presidential significant
:44:49. > :44:54.zags on policy? REPORTER: A moment for the BBC?
:44:54. > :44:59.The critics argue that he's an opportunist who lacks an ideolgical
:44:59. > :45:04.core, goalist or otherwise. Nicolas Sarkozy is a very close friend of
:45:04. > :45:11.mine for 30 years, and I like him very much as a friend. He's one of
:45:11. > :45:16.the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I must say the
:45:16. > :45:24.core belief is not his cup of tea. That's all I can say. If I may add
:45:24. > :45:28.something, I would say he's a lawyer. What is a lawyer? Someone
:45:28. > :45:34.who can...Argue Any position? In this election the public seems
:45:34. > :45:38.to be rallying behind those who say they will protect the Gaullist idea
:45:39. > :45:48.of France. Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, has used the language
:45:48. > :45:58.of austerity, and that's made him distinctly suspect to many voters.
:45:58. > :46:22.
:46:22. > :46:26.That's quite enough excitement for Sun yie for some, wet for others,
:46:26. > :46:30.it -- sunny for some, wet for others, it depend where you live.
:46:30. > :46:34.Huge variations in the weather on Thursday as for Wednesday. It looks
:46:34. > :46:40.as if the more central and eastern parts of England in particular will
:46:40. > :46:44.catch the heaviest of the downpours, thunder, lightning and hail. Slow
:46:44. > :46:50.moving too, one or two places will avoid the worst of those showers,
:46:50. > :46:54.if I was to stick my neck out, parts of western England will fare
:46:54. > :46:59.better. Parts of sunny Devon and Cornwall seeing a largely bright
:46:59. > :47:05.afternoon. Not helping the temperatures, 10-11 at best. When
:47:05. > :47:09.the showers come along, they will be distinctly cold. For Northern
:47:09. > :47:13.Ireland avoiding showers, cool in the breeze, that will be the
:47:13. > :47:18.message for Scotland as well. Sunshine for the western Highlands,
:47:18. > :47:23.cold, and breezy across the far north-east. Things getting colder.
:47:23. > :47:30.Day by day, again, a mixture of sunshine and showers, difficult to
:47:30. > :47:34.pinpoint who will fare best. Cater for a shower or two, and you won't
:47:34. > :47:37.be desapoifrpbted. Showers -- disappointed. Showers turning