:00:13. > :00:17.The budget from hell was how one senior Tory described it today. It
:00:17. > :00:20.would be a huge exaggeration to say there is anything like panics in
:00:20. > :00:24.the ranks of the Conservative Party, but there is unease at how one
:00:24. > :00:28.measure after another seems to be blowing up in their faces.
:00:28. > :00:32.A champion of fill thranthropy takes on a Treasury Minister, over
:00:32. > :00:36.the Government's plan to cap wealthy people's donations to
:00:36. > :00:39.charity. A fragile ceasefire begins in
:00:39. > :00:42.ceasefire, but the fear and loathing are far from gone. We will
:00:42. > :00:47.hear from the former chief of the general staff, and the wounded
:00:47. > :00:51.photographer, recently smuggled out of the country.
:00:51. > :00:54.Is the legacy of the Republican race for the presidential
:00:54. > :01:00.nomination, a party so obsessed with abortion, that it can no
:01:00. > :01:04.longer speak to normal women. all worked up because Hitler killed
:01:04. > :01:08.six million, look how he did it, we are allowing it and promoting it.
:01:08. > :01:13.And will the world soon be turning to half-a-dozen otherwise
:01:13. > :01:23.unconnected countries to find the growth upon which capitalism
:01:23. > :01:23.
:01:23. > :01:29.depends more its survival. It is over three weeks since the
:01:29. > :01:32.coalition Government's budget, and now another one of its measures
:01:32. > :01:37.wreaking political damage, one minute it is pasties and tax breaks
:01:37. > :01:43.for the wealthy, now uncovered is deep disquiet in the Conservative
:01:43. > :01:47.Party over the plans to cap donations to charity. Even if, as
:01:47. > :01:51.some suspect, the ultimate author of the measure is Nick Clegg, this
:01:51. > :01:55.is not the sort of thing MPs expected from George Osborne, who
:01:55. > :01:59.is widely thought within the party as being competent.
:01:59. > :02:02.Our political editor, Allegra Stratton, is here. How deep is the
:02:02. > :02:05.disquiet? I understand from someone who has spoken to the Prime
:02:05. > :02:08.Minister about this, that there will be action in the next weeks
:02:08. > :02:11.and months, to make the distinction between those genuine donations to
:02:11. > :02:15.charity, and those that are a wheeze to get down a tax bill.
:02:15. > :02:18.However, we should acknowledge, which we will go on to talk in the
:02:18. > :02:22.package. There is a killer sentence in this red book, which is the
:02:22. > :02:27.budget, which stipulates they were going to talk to philanthropists in
:02:27. > :02:30.the coming months to make sure they did deep down the damage to
:02:30. > :02:33.charitable donations. All of that to one side, this is playing to a
:02:33. > :02:35.sense, not just on the backbenches, but within Government, you have
:02:35. > :02:40.people in the culture ministry that weren't consulted about this
:02:40. > :02:44.measure, so there is a minutes from people like Nick Herd that they
:02:44. > :02:50.need to be on the attack about this you have the Big Society, central
:02:50. > :02:53.to the primal vision, which he think is central to the country,
:02:53. > :02:57.with this perceived attack on charities, if it is not a real one.
:02:57. > :03:01.Today, ask pretty much any Tory MP how they feel about their
:03:01. > :03:04.leadership, whether they might be prepared, to say, erect a statue to
:03:04. > :03:09.the men who run the party, they would cloak on the leftover Easter
:03:09. > :03:13.eggs. Only six days before the end of the parliamentary term, the
:03:13. > :03:18.Chancellor delivered a budget so heavily prebriefed, it could surely
:03:18. > :03:22.have few surprises. In the intervening few weeks, perpetual
:03:23. > :03:26.bad surprises makes this an unpopular budget, in the words of
:03:26. > :03:31.one senior Conservative, it is the budget from hell. This latest
:03:31. > :03:34.surprise to party manages is target today hurt like a boomerang with
:03:34. > :03:39.sat-nav. This is the angel of Christian charity, it was put to
:03:39. > :03:42.the Earl of Shaftsbury, in the Victorian era, in recognition of
:03:42. > :03:47.all of his philanthropy. It is something David Cameron has wanted
:03:47. > :03:51.to emulate. The Big Society, would see charities take on the role the
:03:51. > :03:55.state had in previous years taken on. With the recent budget move,
:03:55. > :03:58.MPs feel this is being made impossible. One MP described it as
:03:58. > :04:03.entirely indefensible, another, normal low very loyal MP, said he
:04:03. > :04:06.was just waiting for the grown-ups to take over.
:04:06. > :04:11.The modern-day attack on philanthropists began like this.
:04:11. > :04:15.Months ago the Tories decided to scrap the 50p rate of tax, they
:04:15. > :04:20.knew they could only do so if they could show they were getting more
:04:20. > :04:28.back in otherwise, Nick Clegg's tycoon tax. Higher rate tax players
:04:28. > :04:33.could donate unlimited amounts to charity and offset it against tax.
:04:33. > :04:38.Last month the Government sought to cap it, as they felt phantom
:04:39. > :04:47.charities were being used. Charities said they would lose �80
:04:47. > :04:51.million in donations, Tory MPs weighed in their own side.
:04:51. > :04:56.Today Conservative MP, Chris White, was typical of the feeling within
:04:56. > :05:00.his party. He urged the Chancellor to have a
:05:00. > :05:03.re-think, to have really good thinking, and not damage a sector
:05:03. > :05:13.that need to be thriving rather than damaged for others' faults.
:05:13. > :05:19.
:05:19. > :05:23.One of the first critic was a These Conservatives were riled when
:05:23. > :05:27.the Business Secretary this morning, was the first cabinet minister was
:05:27. > :05:32.to sanctions a source to brief that he would sanctions a change. A
:05:32. > :05:37.source close to Vince Cable said he fullied supported the need to clamp
:05:37. > :05:41.down on tax avoidance, but it should be separated from genuine
:05:41. > :05:43.charitable giving. As a fundraiser for over 16 years, I would have
:05:44. > :05:46.loved a donation of that magnitude in the first place. I recognise
:05:46. > :05:48.there are charities that do get that amount of money. It is
:05:49. > :05:53.important that they are not suffering, or made to suffer
:05:53. > :05:56.because of these changes. So it is important that, and it is crucial,
:05:56. > :06:01.that the Government get into dialogue with the charity sector,
:06:02. > :06:04.to ensure that doesn't happen. The Victorians celebrated
:06:04. > :06:08.philanthropists, another London statue, another figure of the angel
:06:08. > :06:13.of charity. Today the Government is maintaining that they too are
:06:13. > :06:19.freoints of the philanthropists, if you look at page 33 of this, the
:06:19. > :06:24.budget from last month, it says they intend to explore with
:06:24. > :06:26.philanthropists ways that it won't impact on charitable giving.
:06:26. > :06:29.Cabinet ministers are acknowledging they will have to make sure there
:06:29. > :06:34.is a distinction between genuine charitable giving, and those
:06:34. > :06:37.seeking to put money into charities as a way of keeping their tax bill
:06:37. > :06:41.down. For those more sceptical of the Government's intentions, there
:06:41. > :06:46.is echos of how they dealt with another unpopular change, child
:06:46. > :06:50.benefit before, the Treasury said it wouldn't do s and then
:06:50. > :06:54.introduced a complicated taper system. One idea being discussed
:06:54. > :06:57.with charities is to define more clearly with what a charity s and
:06:57. > :07:01.impose a cap on charities unrecognised, even if the
:07:01. > :07:11.Government's policy is what it says it is, it is a marker of the mood
:07:11. > :07:15.in the parliament that stuck. Legend has it the angel has been
:07:15. > :07:17.put facing away from Shaftesbury Avenue, that could be for the
:07:18. > :07:20.Tories an accurate description of their Government. Cabinet ministers
:07:20. > :07:24.insist this is the mid-term blues, the two years into the Government
:07:24. > :07:27.when there is hard pounding, and it is just difficult. Others say that
:07:27. > :07:31.is not quite true, when they are chasing economic deficit reduction
:07:32. > :07:34.and growth it is one thing, when growth looks elusive, who is this
:07:34. > :07:36.Government for, who do they stand for?
:07:36. > :07:40.Within minutes of it coming from the Chancellor's mouth, it was
:07:40. > :07:44.clear they had a problem with the changes they intended to make to
:07:44. > :07:48.pensioner allowances. What became known as the granny tax. Within a
:07:48. > :07:51.week, revelations about millionaire donors being invited to Number Ten,
:07:51. > :07:55.came unhelpfully quickly after a budget that cut the top rate of tax.
:07:55. > :07:58.Budget changes to the taxation of pasties were revealed quickly after
:07:58. > :08:02.that. Senior Government members were
:08:02. > :08:05.found scrambling to remember the last time they had eaten a pasty.
:08:05. > :08:09.We have a series of good policies that help working-class people,
:08:09. > :08:13.that are designed to help the most vulnerable, not enough people know
:08:13. > :08:16.about them. At the moment there are a series of clothes pegs without a
:08:16. > :08:19.washing line linking them all together. We need to do a lot more
:08:19. > :08:22.to communicate to people that we are the party of the vulnerable,
:08:23. > :08:27.and the party for the hard working- classs for aspiration and
:08:27. > :08:30.opportunity. For all people inside Government
:08:30. > :08:34.think they are damage, they think the damage is not deep. Education
:08:34. > :08:39.and welfare reforms show plenty of direction, they say, they also
:08:39. > :08:43.point to the upcoming sequence of events, they think Boris Johnson
:08:43. > :08:49.wins the London election, and the stories of Labour faring ill in
:08:49. > :08:53.London and Glasgow, soon a Queen's Speech and second legislative
:08:53. > :08:56.accession, yes, include their critics, elections for the House of
:08:56. > :09:00.Lords, which their critics also loathe.
:09:01. > :09:05.The statue was paid for by subscription of devoted followers,
:09:05. > :09:10.the Tory leadership have heard loud and clear that they have a lot of
:09:10. > :09:20.work until the statues are in the - - statutes are in the bag.
:09:20. > :09:27.
:09:27. > :09:31.My guests join me now. How many people do you know give
:09:31. > :09:35.more than �50,000 or a quarter of their income to charity? I can't
:09:35. > :09:40.answer that, the Sunday time's giving list that comes out at the
:09:40. > :09:44.end of the month, talking about a quarter of the top 1,000 wealthiest
:09:44. > :09:48.people lists are philanthropists, that is knowledgeable, plus another
:09:48. > :09:53.quarter, perhaps, also give. They may be philanthropists, they may
:09:53. > :09:56.not give a quarter of their income or over �50,000? That is not known.
:09:56. > :10:00.We don't know what the loss to charity would be? The estimates
:10:00. > :10:07.have been 20%. It is a nice round figure, and maybe people are just
:10:07. > :10:12.guessing, what would you think, minister? I think as far as what
:10:12. > :10:16.the behavioral impact will be, it is not entirely clear.
:10:16. > :10:20.Philanthropists, such as yourself, don't just give because there is a
:10:20. > :10:24.tax break there. People give money to charities because they want to
:10:24. > :10:29.help a charity. You have done the sums when preparing the budget, how
:10:29. > :10:32.much will it bring into the Treasury? The overall package of
:10:32. > :10:36.capping reliefs, of which charitable donations is one, will
:10:36. > :10:42.bring in �300 million. How much of that by capping charitable
:10:42. > :10:47.donations? Roughly, our estimate is between �50hch �100 million
:10:47. > :10:50.relating -- �50-�100 million relating to the capping of
:10:50. > :10:56.charities. That money would have gone elsewhere? That is money we
:10:56. > :11:01.believe should go to the Exchequer. But not to charity? The big point
:11:01. > :11:05.here, if I may, is that we don't think it is right that people are
:11:06. > :11:10.able to give to charities, or make use of these reliefs, in such a way,
:11:10. > :11:13.that they have a very, very low rate of income tax. Indeed in some
:11:13. > :11:16.cases they don't pay income tax at all. Everybody should pay some
:11:16. > :11:22.income tax. One of the things I found when I was meeting with the
:11:22. > :11:27.Treasury, fairly frequently, is they saw tax breaks as lost revenue.
:11:27. > :11:32.Where as from the outside, a tax break is an investment in future
:11:32. > :11:38.revenue. If you look at it like that, the Treasury is going to lose
:11:38. > :11:41.as well as the clairts, if philanthropists -- charities, if
:11:41. > :11:44.philanthropists start giving less. They already have started giving
:11:44. > :11:48.less, we are having charities ringing up and saying they are
:11:48. > :11:52.getting the warning knowss. If people are noblely motivated,
:11:52. > :11:57.why will they be less so if they don't get a tax break? It leverages
:11:57. > :12:02.what we are doing, I decide what to give to whom at what value, then I
:12:02. > :12:05.decide to do it tax efficiently. It makes me feel good, because I'm
:12:05. > :12:09.working with the local authorities. Would you give less if you weren't
:12:09. > :12:13.getting a tax break? When the paper came out, I wouldn't make any
:12:13. > :12:18.difference, but my advisers phoned me and said watch it, this will
:12:18. > :12:24.affect you. And one has to be effective as well as efficient.
:12:25. > :12:28.wouldn't affect how you behave? Frankly, no. Why should it affect
:12:28. > :12:32.anyone else? They have different policies, I'm running out my
:12:32. > :12:35.charity. My charity will be given away any way, and so I have put
:12:35. > :12:39.everything into the Shirley Foundation, and it is going to come
:12:39. > :12:42.out pretty fast. How many people did you consult
:12:42. > :12:45.with before deciding upon this measure? We decided upon the
:12:45. > :12:50.measure for the very reasons I have outlined, we think it is the right
:12:50. > :12:54.thing to do we think it is fair. What we have said, and as was
:12:54. > :12:58.pointed out in the report, we said we would consult with charities.
:12:58. > :13:01.That is in the small print after saying you will bring in this
:13:02. > :13:06.change. You will bring in this change, won't you? We will bring in
:13:06. > :13:10.this change, what we have also said is we will explore ways to protect
:13:10. > :13:14.those charities dependant on large donations. Did Jeremy Hunt know it
:13:14. > :13:18.was going to be in the budget, did Vince Cable know it was going to be
:13:18. > :13:22.in the budget, did you know it was going to be in the budget? Yes I
:13:22. > :13:26.did. And you agreed with it? think it is fair. I think it is
:13:26. > :13:30.unfair if most people are paying income tax at 20% or 40%, and yet
:13:30. > :13:33.there are people who are very wealthy, and we are talking about
:13:33. > :13:37.some of the wealthiest people in this country, who effectively are
:13:37. > :13:43.paying very little in income tax, in some cases not paying income tax
:13:43. > :13:47.at all. They may be doing some very, very good things, as Dame Stephaine
:13:47. > :13:49.has done, in terms of charitable giving. We think there is a balance
:13:49. > :13:53.that needs to be struck between contributing towards charities,
:13:53. > :13:56.which people choose to do, and making a contribution towards
:13:56. > :14:00.Government and paying for things like the Armed Forces and the NHS
:14:00. > :14:04.and so on, all of which need to be paid for by somebody, and actually,
:14:04. > :14:08.looking at the list they need to make their contribution. You can
:14:08. > :14:11.see the force of the argument, don't you? Absolutely, I think
:14:11. > :14:15.really you owe an apology to the philanthropists because you have
:14:15. > :14:17.not consulted any. There is a summit scheduled for next month,
:14:17. > :14:21.perhaps that might be an opportunity. But in the meantime,
:14:21. > :14:25.none of us know what we are doing. People are already approaching the
:14:25. > :14:29.charities and saying I may not be able to give you this amount next
:14:29. > :14:32.year. To be fair, I have already had a meeting with representatives
:14:32. > :14:37.from some of the charitable organisations. The charities are
:14:37. > :14:42.different from the philanthropists. I agree that we need to have
:14:42. > :14:46.meetings with charities, with philanthropists, all of that is
:14:46. > :14:50.absolutely right. As we set out, on the day of the budget, we will
:14:50. > :14:55.explore this carefully, we will consult, we will listen. But the
:14:55. > :14:59.broad principle, which we announced, and the policy of a cap on reliefs.
:14:59. > :15:04.We recognise that the tax system should encourage charitable giving,
:15:04. > :15:09.the question is, should it be an unlimited relief. Up to now it has
:15:09. > :15:12.been very pro. Your request for an apology has not been granted?
:15:12. > :15:16.Indeed not. I'm not giving an apology. Can you help us with
:15:16. > :15:19.something else then, the Prime Minister's spokesman said on
:15:19. > :15:23.Tuesday, that one of the reasons you were so worried about this, was
:15:23. > :15:27.because in some cases the charities didn't do much charitable work. Can
:15:27. > :15:30.you tell us what those charities are? No, I can't name them. Because
:15:30. > :15:35.don't know? Because of taxpayer confidentiality, and ministers
:15:35. > :15:41.don't get informed of this. What I can say is HMRC have advised me
:15:41. > :15:44.that there are cases where, for example, you might have a charity
:15:44. > :15:50.where something like �20 million might be put into the charity, but
:15:50. > :15:53.only something like �250,000 is actually spent. It is acting as a
:15:53. > :15:58.charity, but we are not seeing the money spent properly. There are
:15:58. > :16:01.other cases which are clearly flouting the rules. That is
:16:01. > :16:05.something for the Charity Commissioners to engage with, isn't
:16:06. > :16:08.it? It is, and HMRC works very closely with them. In some cases, a
:16:08. > :16:11.lot of these charities aren't necessarily regulated by the
:16:12. > :16:15.Charity Commission, because they are based overseas. It is difficult
:16:15. > :16:20.in those circumstances to regulate them. But the particular example I
:16:20. > :16:24.gave there, the Charity Commission would say well it's performing a
:16:24. > :16:28.charitable purpose, but it's not proportionate to the amount of tax
:16:28. > :16:32.relief that the donor has received, putting money into that charity,
:16:32. > :16:37.but not actually seeing very much coming out and benefiting society
:16:37. > :16:42.as a whole. The fact remains no matter how good the tax reliefs are
:16:42. > :16:45.or not, you give much more than you get in relief. These are volunteer
:16:46. > :16:50.givers who choose to invest in social issues. I accept that is the
:16:50. > :16:54.case in the vast majority of the cases. The difficulty is if we end
:16:54. > :16:58.up with a system whereby people are essentially able to take themselves
:16:58. > :17:03.out of the income tax system, we want to take low earners out of the
:17:03. > :17:06.income tax system, it is not right that the very wealthiest can take
:17:06. > :17:11.themselves out. Despite all the gloomy prediction, a ceasefire did
:17:11. > :17:17.happen in Syria today. It is pretty fragile, and the leader of the UN
:17:17. > :17:20.mission there says the Assad has regime has yet to withdraw weapons
:17:20. > :17:23.from urban areas. The secretary- general thinks a sing the shot
:17:23. > :17:30.could wreck the whole thing. But the Russians, Assad's main
:17:30. > :17:34.supporters, say there nai be an unarmed UN force deployed there
:17:34. > :17:38.soon. Bring us up-to-date? I don't think many people dared hope that a
:17:38. > :17:42.ceasefire would take hold at all. It is extremely fragile, but it is
:17:42. > :17:45.really the first let-up Syrians have had since all of this began.
:17:45. > :17:50.Lives have been saved, that is very welcome, obviously, for the people
:17:50. > :17:55.of Syria. But both sides are accusing the other of violating the
:17:55. > :17:59.ceasefire. Syrian state television said a bomb attack in Aleppo had
:17:59. > :18:02.killed an army officer, activist groups say 15 civilians have been
:18:02. > :18:07.killed. We will give awe flavour of some of the videos that have been
:18:07. > :18:17.uploaded by the opposition to YouTube, we can't obviously verify
:18:17. > :18:22.
:18:22. > :18:26.them. But this is purportedly the town of Homs today.
:18:26. > :18:28.This is Aleppo, people run ago I way from gunfire, we are not sure
:18:28. > :18:32.of the circumstances, but clearly people are very scared. Elsewhere
:18:32. > :18:38.there are protests that went ahead untroubled. As you can see. But a
:18:38. > :18:45.very clear message, spelled out by students in Aleppo. I hope you are
:18:45. > :18:48.seeing the pictures. They are forming the letters S-O-S? A very
:18:48. > :18:53.clear message to the international community, they don't think the
:18:53. > :18:56.danger is passed. Friday is the Day of Prayer, traditionally the day of
:18:56. > :19:01.protest, since the Arab Spring began. People are expected try to
:19:01. > :19:07.take to the streets en masse, how will the regime respond. Have you
:19:07. > :19:11.spoken to anyone connected with the UN mission there? I have spoken to
:19:11. > :19:15.UN officials in New York. There are discussions at the UN Security
:19:15. > :19:21.Council at the moment over the deployment of UN observers to
:19:21. > :19:25.monitor the truce. There is talk of an advanced team of 30 people who
:19:25. > :19:28.could arrive in the next few days. They could be boosted to a couple
:19:29. > :19:32.of hundred at a later stage. There are UN officials who have been in
:19:32. > :19:35.Syria, led by a Norwegian general, who are negotiating with the
:19:35. > :19:41.authorities there. They have apparently been pretty difficult
:19:41. > :19:44.discussions. But this idea of an observer mission is being seriously
:19:44. > :19:48.talked about. When I spoke to an visor for the secretary-general,
:19:48. > :19:52.Ban Ki-Moon, he said he was hoping for a unanimous vote at the
:19:52. > :19:56.Security Council tomorrow. They might decide it to be a lightly
:19:56. > :20:00.armed force, as peacekeepers are. My guess is in Australian
:20:00. > :20:08.probability they will have mostly side arms for personal protection
:20:08. > :20:12.in some situations T would basically be an unarmed force for
:20:12. > :20:16.prak -- practical purposes. They would be there to observe,
:20:16. > :20:20.facilitate and report back on what is happening on the ground. To make
:20:20. > :20:26.sure that the ceasefire has a bit more feet, and a bit more
:20:26. > :20:29.sustainability than it looks like at the outset.
:20:29. > :20:34.Caroline, within you think about that, and you think about the Arab
:20:34. > :20:38.League mission, also an unarmed bunch of observers, that wasn't a
:20:38. > :20:42.conspicuous success? I was told that lessons had been learned from
:20:42. > :20:45.the ill-fated mission. He said UN observers in place are more
:20:45. > :20:48.experienced, he said they have done this before. He said they had
:20:48. > :20:51.always done this against the odds. The ceasefire is just the first
:20:51. > :21:00.stage, this is meant to lead to a political process, the opposition
:21:00. > :21:04.sitting down with the regime. And UN UN officials are seriously
:21:04. > :21:09.sceptical about the Assad regime's intentions. So far they have shown
:21:09. > :21:12.a strong tendency to think the answer is a military one, that you
:21:12. > :21:17.can crucial your opposition militarily. We don't know that the
:21:17. > :21:21.opposition has a unified platform, can choose people to represent them,
:21:22. > :21:25.and that can come together in an effective and cohesive way. We
:21:25. > :21:32.really don't know those kinds of things. One has to have tempered
:21:32. > :21:37.optimisim at best. To discuss this is the photographer
:21:37. > :21:47.Paul Conroy, injured in the Syrian city in Homs, in the same incident
:21:47. > :21:48.
:21:49. > :21:57.that killed the Sunday Times reporter, Marie Colvin, and the
:21:57. > :22:00.former commander of the NATO force in Kosovo. There were less people
:22:00. > :22:05.killed and injured today, that is a good thing? That is a good thing
:22:05. > :22:09.for today. That is one thing. There is a lot of rampent optimisim
:22:09. > :22:13.floating around about the ceasefire. Obviously they would like it to
:22:13. > :22:18.work. Why do you say that? Experience, everyone has looked
:22:18. > :22:22.over the last year at the regime's approach. I was there in Homs when
:22:22. > :22:26.they had the referendum on the new constitution. I sat there in the
:22:26. > :22:29.room while they shelled Homs consistently they gave the soldiers
:22:29. > :22:33.an hour off to vote on the constitution, then it was back to
:22:33. > :22:37.shelling. That is my experience of the regime's approach towards
:22:37. > :22:41.negotiations and democracy. Let's talk about, we will talk
:22:41. > :22:45.about what measures might be taken further than an unarmed mission.
:22:45. > :22:51.First of all, this question of an unarmed mission, would you like to
:22:51. > :22:56.be part of an unarmed UN observer mission in Syria? I wish them very
:22:56. > :23:01.well. I wish the whole mission very well, of course. But my own
:23:01. > :23:05.experience of unarmed observers is not a terribly happy one. They have
:23:05. > :23:11.no power, of course, all they can do is to report. Now, there is a
:23:11. > :23:16.moral, strength to that reporting, if somebody's getting it wrong. But
:23:16. > :23:23.it needs goodwill on both sides to implement such an agreement, and I
:23:23. > :23:30.echo Paul. How confident are we that the Assad regime has goodwill
:23:30. > :23:34.to implementation of this. There is little evidence of any God will
:23:34. > :23:40.there. Do either of you have any suggestions about how the cause of
:23:40. > :23:45.peace mighting advanced there? think it is what sort -- Might be
:23:45. > :23:49.advanced there? I think it is what sort of peace. You have oppression
:23:49. > :23:53.and people beaten into called "peace". I think the genie is out
:23:53. > :23:58.of the bottle. One needs to be careful, with comparisons, they are
:23:58. > :24:03.not always directly helpful, but we have been here before, in other
:24:03. > :24:06.places. Which other places? Libya is an obvious parallel. There was
:24:06. > :24:12.western intervention in Libya? There was western intervention. And
:24:12. > :24:16.one could argue, and I would, that the situation in Syria is at least
:24:16. > :24:21.as bad, arguably worse. Does it justify western intervention?
:24:21. > :24:25.but that depends now on basically the western approach, and indeed,
:24:25. > :24:31.let us not forget, the two members of the Security Council who have
:24:32. > :24:35.always been very shy of intervention, Russia and that.
:24:35. > :24:39.the basis of your experience, and what you saw about how the Syrian
:24:39. > :24:43.Government and forces behaved, what do you advocate? I'm fully in
:24:43. > :24:46.favour of an intervention, I think the whole Annan peace plan depends
:24:46. > :24:52.on the Syrian people putting their trust in this Government. Now they
:24:52. > :24:56.have no reason, I think, to be honest. This is a brutal question.
:24:56. > :25:02.But why is peace in Syria worth putting at risk the life of a
:25:02. > :25:05.single British soldier? I think it boils down to a question of
:25:05. > :25:09.humanity. Are we all prepared to sit around for the next year and
:25:09. > :25:12.watch thousands upon thousands of innocent people slaughtered.
:25:12. > :25:15.you imagine a British Prime Minister standing up and trying to
:25:16. > :25:19.justify that decision? I would certainly like to see a British
:25:19. > :25:28.Prime Minister stand up and try to just foi that decision. Can you see
:25:28. > :25:32.it? You are dammed if you do, and you're dammed if you don't. That is
:25:32. > :25:37.exactly the position regarding Benghazi a yor ago now had we not
:25:37. > :25:42.taken action, -- a year ago, had we not taken action along with allies,
:25:43. > :25:46.there would have been conned dem nation of allowing this brew --
:25:46. > :25:51.condemnation of allowing this brutal inhad you tan me to continue,
:25:51. > :25:54.some people were not -- inhumanity to continue with that. Would you
:25:54. > :26:00.have wanted to see forces committed without knowing the end game and
:26:00. > :26:05.how to get them out? You would have to think through your campaign
:26:05. > :26:08.carefully, we have not always been quite as good at the end game as we
:26:08. > :26:13.should have been. The military campaign would be simple and fast,
:26:13. > :26:20.it is transforming a country after that, that is the real challenge.
:26:20. > :26:25.Do you have a view on that? I would see the intervention, not as a form
:26:25. > :26:32.of arming the rebels and topping them up to overthrowing the regime.
:26:32. > :26:36.I think it is now a case of saving lives, I would like corridors, safe
:26:36. > :26:41.havens, established, on a light humanitarian basis. These people
:26:41. > :26:46.have nowhere to run. It is not like in Libya where there were safe
:26:47. > :26:50.areas people could get to, every inch of Syria is covered with the
:26:50. > :26:53.regime. Now it is a humanitarian need, as opposed to regime change.
:26:53. > :26:57.I think we need to provide some form of that.
:26:58. > :27:00.Thank you very much. Rather unusual happenings in the
:27:00. > :27:04.American presidential race today. Barack Obama's people are letting
:27:04. > :27:07.it be known that they are in complete sympathy with the wife of
:27:07. > :27:11.Mitt Romney, the likely Republican challenger for the White House.
:27:11. > :27:14.They are defending her against Democrat accusations she has never
:27:14. > :27:17.worked because she has been at home raising five boys. It is a mark of
:27:17. > :27:21.how the presidential race is divided. And may be determined,
:27:21. > :27:26.indeed, by gender. Obama has far more support from women, partly
:27:26. > :27:30.because of the remarkable divisions in the US over abortion.
:27:30. > :27:37.As Paul Mason reports, the issue has become charged in a way almost
:27:37. > :27:41.unimaginable in Europe. An abortion clinic in Ohio,
:27:41. > :27:46.protestors come here every day the clinic operates.
:27:46. > :27:50.Inside, for all the intimacy and calm, they can't escape the sound
:27:50. > :27:55.and fury the presidential election has stirred up.
:27:55. > :28:05.Barack Obama voted in favour of legaliseing infantiside. He voted
:28:05. > :28:08.to protect doctors who provide abortion. It is a campaign where
:28:08. > :28:14.each candidate has tried to sound more anti-abortion than less.
:28:14. > :28:18.America has become a country where a talk show host can attack a woman
:28:19. > :28:23.for advocating publicly-funded contraception. She's having so much
:28:23. > :28:27.sex she can't afford the contraception she wants, you and me
:28:27. > :28:31.and the tax-payers paying her to have sex, it makes her a salute,
:28:31. > :28:38.right? These are not just words, last year
:28:38. > :28:41.half of all US states imposed new curbs on abortion. The laws being
:28:41. > :28:45.proposed represent a new radical restriction on abortion.
:28:45. > :28:48.The debate is being conducted in a language that is shocking and
:28:48. > :28:53.extreme. And some Republicans think their party is being dragged so far
:28:53. > :28:59.to the right on this issue, that its prospects in November's
:28:59. > :29:04.election could be seriously compromised.
:29:04. > :29:08.In Ohio, home to rust belt cities, and millions of the post-industrial
:29:08. > :29:15.poor, they are working on one of the most restrictive new laws. If
:29:15. > :29:21.passed, it will ban all abortions, once a heart beat is detected. That
:29:21. > :29:26.is usually about six weeks. strategy is to put those laws in
:29:26. > :29:34.place state-by-state, and erode and destroy access to abortions. That
:29:34. > :29:38.is what's working. Under pressure from protestors,
:29:38. > :29:42.hospitals here no longer perform abortions. This basic facility in
:29:42. > :29:47.Toledo, run by a charity, is the only one for miles around. People
:29:47. > :29:53.who work here say it is the poorest women who need the most help.
:29:53. > :29:57.know that even when it is illegal, women still have done abortions in
:29:57. > :30:01.themselves. They do that at great personal risk. It is not an issue
:30:01. > :30:06.of banning abortion, it is an issue of banning safe and legal abortions.
:30:06. > :30:10.It makes it harder for them to get services. The other thing is it
:30:10. > :30:15.makes it harder for them to fund the services, once they find them,
:30:15. > :30:20.and it makes it, I think it also puts a burden of despair on them.
:30:20. > :30:26.It puts a burden of guilt and shame that they should not have.
:30:26. > :30:36.Texas already enforces something called a transhave a guile nan
:30:36. > :30:37.
:30:37. > :30:41.ultra sound, this -- transvaginal ultra sound, this is so a woman can
:30:41. > :30:46.see and hear the foetus before an abortion. When other states tried
:30:46. > :30:51.to follow, the battle wind nationwide. Now to the heated
:30:51. > :30:59.battle over reproductive and abortion rights. Ultra sounds for
:30:59. > :31:02.women seeking an abortion. At which point the Obama administration
:31:02. > :31:09.announced plans to include contraception in its healthcare
:31:09. > :31:15.reforms, and the Republican presidential candidates went appo
:31:15. > :31:19.pletic. Sterilisation, and morning- after bill. You voted for birth
:31:19. > :31:23.control pills. That is what they do, not us. The Obama camp could not
:31:23. > :31:28.have hoped for a more try dent reaction. Among women voters,
:31:28. > :31:31.Republican front runner, Mitt Romney, is already polling up to 18
:31:31. > :31:35.points behind President Obama in battleground states. Senior
:31:35. > :31:38.Republicans feel the tenor of the debate has seriously affected their
:31:38. > :31:41.charity's chances in November. don't think they have handled this
:31:41. > :31:46.too well, let me point out, that they didn't bring this issue up,
:31:47. > :31:51.the President did. I always resist conspiracy theories, but if this
:31:51. > :31:55.was a gambit on the part of the administration, it worked
:31:55. > :32:00.beautifully. Some of our people took the bait. Mitch Daniels was
:32:00. > :32:06.once a serious contender for the pup can party's presidential
:32:06. > :32:12.nomination, he lacked support from the conservative base. He believes
:32:12. > :32:17.the party's focus on these issues could doom them in the elections.
:32:17. > :32:21.Our party could be doing a lot better. Sometimes I say given the
:32:21. > :32:24.failure of the policies, a weak economy, it would be very hard to
:32:24. > :32:30.lose an election to President Obama, but we have just the team that
:32:30. > :32:32.could do it! That's not how it looks in Ohio. Among these rural
:32:33. > :32:38.and middle-class voters, the religious right will take the
:32:38. > :32:42.battle for the party's soul right up to November.
:32:42. > :32:47.This group of Ohio activists lobbies tirelessly for the heart
:32:47. > :32:52.beat bill. The doctor has to actually show the woman the heart
:32:52. > :32:57.beat, on the ultra sound, let her hear the heart beat, if that heart
:32:57. > :33:05.beat is detected then the baby is protected from the abortion. Why is
:33:05. > :33:08.the heart beat so important? over the world, the signal, one
:33:08. > :33:11.important issue of whether or not there is life, is whether or not
:33:11. > :33:14.there is a heart beat. Politically they are purists, they are
:33:14. > :33:19.determined to keep abortion at the centre of the election campaign,
:33:19. > :33:24.regardless of the consequences. The time has come for us to stand
:33:24. > :33:29.up and stand for what's right. would rather lose on the principle
:33:29. > :33:34.issue than win with an alliance of quite conservative people, who just
:33:34. > :33:38.don't share your views on abortion? Yes. It is not political at all.
:33:38. > :33:41.From my vantage point it is a theological issue, so, yes, courage,
:33:41. > :33:46.just take the stand, willing to lose? Yes.
:33:46. > :33:51.We get all worked up because Hitler killed six million, and look how he
:33:51. > :33:56.did it. And we're allowing it, and we're promoting it. Are you
:33:56. > :34:00.comparing it to the Holocaust? is a Holocaust, it is time that
:34:00. > :34:03.America wakes up to the truth. It is genocide. You couldn't then have
:34:03. > :34:09.a political candidate who denied that, it would be like having a
:34:09. > :34:13.Holocaust denial? Exactly. Outside the Toledo clinic, the
:34:13. > :34:18.vigil continues. Inside gynaecologist, Martin Ruddock, has
:34:18. > :34:21.finished work, after a day in which he terminated ten pregnancies. He
:34:21. > :34:27.says there is no medical science behind the new laws, above all, he
:34:28. > :34:32.thinks the ultra sound probe is about pure politics. This is a
:34:32. > :34:37.transvajal probe, in that -- transvaginal probe, the patient
:34:37. > :34:41.needs to be up in stirrups, you need to use a condom for protection
:34:41. > :34:45.and lubricant, you must literally take this lengthy probe, and insert
:34:45. > :34:49.it into the vagina, in order to get an interior view of what's going on.
:34:49. > :34:55.It gives you a different perspective. To mandate the use of
:34:55. > :34:59.this, would be absolute intrusion into women's reproductive care, it
:34:59. > :35:03.is unnecessary in the practice of abortion practice. Why are they
:35:03. > :35:08.doing it? To try to drive doctors away. To make the procedure more
:35:08. > :35:12.expensive, and costly, to scare women away, and basically to put
:35:12. > :35:20.additional obstacles, one after the other, in the path of a woman who
:35:20. > :35:25.is pregnant and doesn't want to be. In some ways this is part of the
:35:25. > :35:28.old culture war between liberals and Conservatives. The result is
:35:28. > :35:30.almost silently, legal abortion for women from the poorest
:35:30. > :35:35.neighbourhoods has become harder and harder.
:35:35. > :35:42.It is in the election, and its effect on how women vote in
:35:42. > :35:48.November, that the debate might have its loudest impact. Now this,
:35:48. > :35:55.as David Attenborough, could have told you, is a civic cattle, so our
:35:55. > :35:58.graphic department imagined. It is best known for secreting the musk
:35:58. > :36:06.in perfumes, and the coffee beans, said to make a sensational kick
:36:06. > :36:15.start. If you are an economy, or a banker, it is used as an acronym of
:36:15. > :36:21.some of the new economies, Egypt, turkey, Brazilians, the acronym is
:36:21. > :36:26.less agile, but we like it a lot more. A BRIC is a strong and robust
:36:26. > :36:32.object, CIVIT is a meek mammal, whose oder is used to make perfume,
:36:32. > :36:37.believe it or not. It is the smell of money that has said the CIVET
:36:37. > :36:43.more came mus. Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, turkey, South Africa and
:36:43. > :36:47.Egypt, all touted as the next waive of emerging economies, that could,
:36:47. > :36:52.we stress the conditional, could match in terms of growth, but not
:36:52. > :36:55.scale. What could unite, one south American, two African and three
:36:55. > :36:59.Asian countries, separated by vast differences, as well as historical
:36:59. > :37:04.and financial backgrounds. They all have young educated populations, 28
:37:04. > :37:08.is the median age, in Britain it is 40, and for Germany, Italy and
:37:08. > :37:12.Japan, it is a more elderly 44. Youth and especially a trained one,
:37:12. > :37:15.matters in a growing economy, it means you are producing a stream of
:37:15. > :37:22.wealth creators, or at least consumers of goods and services.
:37:22. > :37:25.And the other unifying factor for CIVETs is growth itself, land and
:37:25. > :37:28.labour is cheap, and they have grown rapid low by our standards
:37:28. > :37:33.over the past years. It is the combination of growth and youth,
:37:33. > :37:37.which has led to a boom in foreign- led investment in these countries.
:37:37. > :37:40.It is who do we look to next, who are the other economies that share
:37:40. > :37:44.the characteristics of a very low level of development, but really
:37:44. > :37:47.good foundations, good fundamentals, so they will grow rapidly in the
:37:47. > :37:52.next few years. That have the potential, we think, to grow
:37:52. > :37:55.rapidly, not just for a few years, but for a few decades ahead.
:37:55. > :37:59.Certainly by far outpacing the rates of growth that we are going
:37:59. > :38:03.to be seeing here in the western world. We could look at all six
:38:03. > :38:09.countries, but to save time let's look at three. Colomboia has come a
:38:09. > :38:13.long way from being a by-word for kidnapping and cocaine, a civil war
:38:13. > :38:17.has fizzled out, main export is oil and coffee. Two commodities that
:38:17. > :38:22.have soared in price of late. The Colomboians have worked hard to
:38:22. > :38:31.inprom their corporate governance, that is paying off. Growth is
:38:31. > :38:36.averageing between 5-6% a year. American companies alone invest $7
:38:36. > :38:40.billion in 2010. Turkey has long promised, but only now is
:38:40. > :38:49.delivering. Check where your shirt was made, chances are it is turkey,
:38:49. > :38:56.so too your washing machine. Turkey also makes cars, 1.1 million in
:38:56. > :39:02.2010, in joint global ventures with Fiat and Toyota. It is thought to
:39:02. > :39:08.grow 10% this year. Turkey had serious crises in the past, it has
:39:08. > :39:12.come through that, has credible policy, and is very actively
:39:12. > :39:15.attracting investment and boosting growth as a result of that. The
:39:15. > :39:22.other interesting one is Indonesia, still a country that has an awful
:39:22. > :39:26.lot of development to do. It is still very split in terms of parts
:39:26. > :39:30.of it wealthy and parts of it poor. A country that has huge potential
:39:30. > :39:35.going forward. Particularly in the region in Asia linked to China and
:39:35. > :39:38.India both on its doorstep. David Cameron was on that doorstep this
:39:38. > :39:41.week, Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. With
:39:41. > :39:47.an economic potential to match. Like its neighbours in Australia,
:39:47. > :39:51.it has made hey on the back of an abundance of commodities, tin and
:39:51. > :39:56.natural gas. It is the 11th-largest gas producer in the world. Its
:39:56. > :40:00.young, mostly secular population has acquired a taste for shopping.
:40:00. > :40:05.However attractive this group of nations are, they are a risky bet.
:40:05. > :40:09.Most of the six countries aren't even considered investment grade by
:40:09. > :40:12.the cred date rating agencies. Doing business is not straight
:40:12. > :40:19.forward, democracy and accountability is new, if it exists
:40:19. > :40:21.at all. Company law is sketchy, and punishments for what we consider
:40:21. > :40:26.minor infringements can be draconian in some places. There is
:40:26. > :40:31.the threat of civil unrest and outright war even. A year after
:40:31. > :40:36.Israel was included in the -- Egypt was included in the list, it had a
:40:36. > :40:40.major revolution and investment dried up for six months. You can't
:40:40. > :40:49.say such events won't happen elsewhere, if a caveat applied it
:40:49. > :40:59.is to the CIVETs. Here to explain more is the Colombian ambassador,
:40:59. > :41:08.and a risk consultant at the your racialia group. Is this -- E URAISA
:41:08. > :41:12.group. It was created by and after a thorough analysis of political
:41:12. > :41:17.and social variables, it has a lot of potential in the facts, the
:41:17. > :41:22.recent history proves that the economist is right in forecasting a
:41:22. > :41:26.high growth rate for our economies. What do you have in common with
:41:26. > :41:32.Egypt? We have a large young population. They had a growth rate
:41:32. > :41:36.of less than 1% last year, 2% predicted for this year? The IMF
:41:36. > :41:40.forecast as growth rate between 4- 6% for the coming three years in
:41:40. > :41:44.Egypt. I agree that there is the potential for that kind of growth
:41:44. > :41:50.rate. What do you make of this idea?
:41:50. > :41:55.a bit more sceptical, I share the view that some of these countries
:41:55. > :41:59.share a favourable growth outlook, but the acronym, I'm more on the
:41:59. > :42:04.gimmick side, for a couple of reasons. First of all, it occurs to
:42:04. > :42:12.me what are the commonalties between these countries, moving
:42:12. > :42:17.from Indonesia 250 million, to Columbia 46 million. Second, why
:42:17. > :42:20.Egypt is in this group? The gross outlook for Egypt is not that --
:42:21. > :42:25.the growth outlook is not that favourable. The assumption that
:42:25. > :42:29.Egypt has good fundamentals is questionable. We could also ask why
:42:30. > :42:36.some countries aren't in this group? Why isn't Mexico in there,
:42:36. > :42:40.why isn't Malaysia in there, for example? I agree Mexico should be
:42:40. > :42:43.included. Maybe it is a bit more difficult to get some gimmick
:42:43. > :42:48.acronym if you put in too many countries? It is always difficult
:42:48. > :42:52.to choose which countries to put in, which countries to leave out of
:42:52. > :42:59.these catagories. But I agree that Mexico should be included there. It
:42:59. > :43:03.has a huge population, a very large GDP, and it has solid institutions,
:43:03. > :43:09.and I hope that they will continue doing well in the economic terms.
:43:09. > :43:14.Do you have any plans for a CIVETs convention or group? Yes. You are
:43:14. > :43:18.going to start to try acting as a group? We have been talking to the
:43:18. > :43:22.prime ministers of these countries, our finance ministers are working
:43:22. > :43:26.together in defining strategies. What will you hope to do? We hope
:43:27. > :43:30.to have a common plan to promote investment in our countries. Both
:43:30. > :43:34.domestic and foreign investment. For example, in Columbia, foreign
:43:35. > :43:38.investment has multiplied by ten in the past ten years. Would you
:43:38. > :43:42.invest in these countries? Certainly in some of them.
:43:42. > :43:46.Indonesia, countries like that, countries like Turkey, South Africa,
:43:46. > :43:50.Vietnam, they do enjoy a favourable economic outlook, there is no doubt
:43:50. > :43:55.about that. The question is, once you put them in the same basket,
:43:55. > :44:00.tough make the case for that. The case, in my view, is a fairly weak
:44:00. > :44:04.case. Leaving aside creating the acronym, the fundamentals are not
:44:04. > :44:08.there. The question is why Mexico isn't there, and why Egypt is in
:44:08. > :44:12.the group. You may say that they suffer from a
:44:12. > :44:15.silly name, perhaps, you could make all sorts of accusations, what you
:44:15. > :44:19.can't argue with is their rate of growth. You look at the rate of
:44:19. > :44:22.growth in this country. It is less than 1%. The rate of growth across
:44:22. > :44:27.Europe, and you compare it with these countries. They are going
:44:27. > :44:32.places, we are not? Absolutely. There is no question about that.
:44:32. > :44:35.They all share, as it was said at the beginning, a favourable
:44:35. > :44:38.economic outlook, there is no dispute about that. There are
:44:38. > :44:42.significant challenges, even for a country like Columbia, which has
:44:42. > :44:45.done very well over the past few years. With a significant take off.
:44:45. > :44:48.There is a challenge there, how you manage all this new wealth. What
:44:48. > :44:52.does it mean in terms of controlling inflation, what does it
:44:52. > :44:57.mean in terms of controlling the rate of exchange, and so on. There
:44:57. > :44:59.is a challenge there, growth is certainly good, but it comes with
:44:59. > :45:03.challenges. Have you got any advice you would
:45:03. > :45:09.like to give us? Jeremy, if you had invested in the Colombian stock
:45:09. > :45:15.exchange ten years ago, your investment today would be worth 15-
:45:15. > :45:20.times, but it is not too late, you can already invest now and get
:45:20. > :45:27.healthy returns in the coming years. Would you invest in the Colombian
:45:27. > :45:30.stock exchange? Lots of them do. Against your advice? Not at all.
:45:30. > :45:34.The issue I'm not questioning is the growth of the country, it is
:45:34. > :45:39.putting them all in the same basket. That is the key question. Not the
:45:39. > :45:44.question of the growth outlook. Thank you very much. Teapots across
:45:44. > :45:52.the Midlands were rattled by what the MoD revealed was the sonic boom
:45:52. > :45:58.of a typhoon aircraft. People swamped the emergency siss after
:45:58. > :46:08.supersonic was set off after emergency calls from a helicopter.
:46:08. > :46:10.
:46:10. > :46:17.The last time was in 19 47. There she goes, a big moment, in a
:46:17. > :46:22.history-making flight. Now she raes approaching the
:46:22. > :46:27.barrier, the -- she's approaching the barrier. 60 miles per hour. The
:46:27. > :46:37.really big moment. Through the sound barrier, the
:46:37. > :46:37.
:46:38. > :46:40.Chilly weekend coming up, sunshine to compensate.
:46:40. > :46:43.Very chilly start to the day tomorrow. Showers will develop,
:46:43. > :46:47.just as we have seen over the last few days, mostly across the
:46:47. > :46:50.southern half of the UK. Where, once more, by the afternoon, they
:46:50. > :46:53.really will get going with abundance. There will be heavy and
:46:53. > :46:57.thundery ones too. Particularly down towards the Midland and the
:46:57. > :47:01.south-east. Wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm, but not as eye vent
:47:01. > :47:05.as we saw during the course of the die.
:47:05. > :47:09.More showers than today. Across the south west of England, and parts of
:47:09. > :47:12.west Wales, where we have had a lot of sun hien in the last few days.
:47:12. > :47:16.That may -- sunshine in the last few days. A light breeze across the
:47:16. > :47:19.southern half of the UK, a stronger breeze further north. A chilly one
:47:20. > :47:23.too. A fair bit of sunshine for Northern Ireland, temperatures
:47:23. > :47:28.pegged back at 8-10 degrees. For Scotland, cold enough for the
:47:28. > :47:32.showers to be falling as shoe over the high ground in particular. A --
:47:32. > :47:36.showers over the high ground in particular. Colder this weekend,
:47:36. > :47:43.temperatures struggling to get out as single figures. Showers across
:47:43. > :47:47.the north will be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. Dry weather and a