:00:13. > :00:18.Is the world preparing for a Greek exit, pursued by a bear market? In
:00:18. > :00:21.Athens the rain is flooding in, the money is flooding out. Tonight an
:00:21. > :00:26.agency lowers Greece's credit rating even further.
:00:26. > :00:30.Here in the birth place of democracy, more and more people are
:00:30. > :00:34.rejecting mainstream democratic parties. I will be finding out what
:00:34. > :00:38.that tells us about Greek society. The G8, the big industrial powers
:00:38. > :00:43.are about to meet in America, all say they want a solution to the
:00:44. > :00:48.euro crisis, but can any of them actually produce an answer?
:00:48. > :00:51.Should this controversial trial of GM wheat in Hertfordshire go ahead,
:00:51. > :00:54.or be torn up. For the first time we bring
:00:54. > :00:58.together scientists and GM opponents to debate whether this
:00:58. > :01:03.plea should be heeded. We know we cannot stop you taking the action
:01:03. > :01:06.you are planning to take, but please reconsider, before it is too
:01:06. > :01:11.late, and before several years worth of work, to which we have
:01:11. > :01:15.been devoting our lives, will be destroyed forever.
:01:15. > :01:20.And just when you thought it was safe to go back into the financial
:01:21. > :01:25.waters, the losses incurred by the trader nicknamed the London Whale,
:01:25. > :01:33.are mounting out. We will ask Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
:01:33. > :01:36.why these events seem to keep taking us by surprise.
:01:36. > :01:42.Good evening, today one journalist wrote that the Greek crisis was
:01:42. > :01:46.reducing our leaders to the figure in Edvard Munch's Scream, howling
:01:46. > :01:50.in despair, with little ability to affect events. As the most powerful
:01:50. > :01:59.people on our planet make their way to America for tomorrow's G8, the
:01:59. > :02:02.eyes of the world rest on an election in a small country whose
:02:02. > :02:08.results may affect all our tomorrows.
:02:08. > :02:12.First we report from Athens. Handing over the Olympic Flame for
:02:12. > :02:17.Princess Anne. It is a torch of unity and peace, but the Olympic
:02:17. > :02:21.Flame was entrusted to its latest temporary keepers today. By a
:02:21. > :02:25.nation that itself is deeply divided, on the edge, some fear, of
:02:25. > :02:30.more social strive. Everyone knows Greece is the birth place of some
:02:30. > :02:34.of Europe's most cherished values, including the idea of
:02:34. > :02:38.representative Government. Why then, here of all places, are so many
:02:38. > :02:42.people now rejecting mainstream politics, even questioning the
:02:42. > :02:48.democratic system. Is it simply a protest at falling living standards,
:02:48. > :02:54.or does it tell us something more fundamental about Greece itself.
:02:54. > :02:59.Among the newly-elected MPs sworn in today, were members of extreme
:02:59. > :03:03.right-wing party, Golden Dawn, regarded by many as Neo-Nazis. They
:03:03. > :03:08.are entering parliament for the first time, with 7% of the vote.
:03:08. > :03:12.Today, gay activists were marking the international day of action
:03:12. > :03:16.against homophobia, in an Athens bookshop. They are worried that
:03:16. > :03:21.discrimination, and even violence against minorities of all kinds may
:03:21. > :03:26.now increase. We fear a rise of the far right, especially now that we
:03:26. > :03:34.are having a far right party within parliament. The gay community is
:03:34. > :03:37.afraid about the challenges these people will impose on the
:03:37. > :03:42.legislative protection of the rights of gay people, especially
:03:42. > :03:46.the gay youth. We have come to think of ancient
:03:46. > :03:51.Greece as a stronghold of enlightenment. But attitudes here
:03:51. > :03:56.are as complex as the country's multilayered history. A society so
:03:56. > :04:03.confident and outward looking in antiquity, was forced to turn in on
:04:03. > :04:09.itself during the long centuries of otman ox passion, that ended only
:04:09. > :04:13.in the 19th century. Greece was liberated partly by its own
:04:13. > :04:22.patriots, but only by the help of foreign powers. Greece has always
:04:22. > :04:25.depended on the kindness, or lack of it, of strangers. That has made
:04:25. > :04:31.the Greeks susceptible to humiliation, that has occurred and
:04:31. > :04:35.recurred in Greece's history on many occasions. Nevertheless, I
:04:35. > :04:39.would say that Greek political leaders and politicians, in general,
:04:39. > :04:43.were made of very good stuff. That's what saved Greece from many
:04:43. > :04:50.a difficult decision in the past. Not so today. Today our politicians
:04:51. > :04:54.are not up to it. That's perhaps why, in a city district of Athens,
:04:54. > :04:59.they voted against the main parties, accusing them of caving into the
:04:59. > :05:06.European Union over the bail out terms. This is a stronghold of the
:05:06. > :05:10.radical left. Inside the district, these graphic designers have left
:05:10. > :05:15.their jobs in the mainstream media, and set up an independent co-
:05:15. > :05:18.operative, it is one of many ventures across Greece, designed to
:05:18. > :05:23.create alternative economic and social networks, forming islands of
:05:23. > :05:28.freedom, as they put it, outside the despised state. Their aim,
:05:28. > :05:32.above all, is to help those impoverished by the crisis.
:05:32. > :05:38.Everybody gets together and brings food and cooks together, for a
:05:38. > :05:44.minimum, a small price, or most of the time for free. But there can be
:05:44. > :05:50.entertainment, like through free cinemas, or theatrical plays. So
:05:50. > :05:57.people need real solutions to their every-day problems. That comes
:05:57. > :06:01.through collectives or through self-organised projects. They are
:06:01. > :06:05.growing and spreading all over Greece, like a virus in a way.
:06:05. > :06:10.The rot in the system set in soon after the collapse of the military
:06:10. > :06:14.junta, that ruled Greece for seven years up to 1974. The hopes that
:06:14. > :06:19.came with the return of democracy, couldn't all be fulfilled. The man
:06:19. > :06:27.who dominated Greek politics in the 1980s, the socialist, Lucas
:06:27. > :06:37.Papademos, delighted many -- Papandreaou, delighted by railing
:06:37. > :06:38.
:06:38. > :06:45.against America and others. undercurrent of somebody is out to
:06:45. > :06:52.get you, the conspiracy theory, the friend-foe division, has been
:06:52. > :06:59.fighting the fires of Golden Dawn, Syriza and the far left. It is the
:06:59. > :07:02.frame of mind, the way of thinking that our ills are not our own, and
:07:02. > :07:06.brought upon us by others. Long before the flame reaches London,
:07:06. > :07:10.after its journey around Britain, Greece will have yet another
:07:10. > :07:14.parliament. But few expect it will be one that can restore the Greek's
:07:14. > :07:21.confidence in their political system.
:07:21. > :07:25.We can join Tim now. Give us a sense of what it feels like there
:07:25. > :07:29.tonight what are people preparing for in the next couple of days?
:07:29. > :07:32.are preparing for the new elections on June 17th. The opinion polls
:07:32. > :07:37.certainly suggest that the left- wing grouping, Syriza, the party
:07:37. > :07:41.grouping that rejects the terms of Greece's pail out, will do even
:07:41. > :07:44.better in these coming elections. Although, some people think
:07:45. > :07:48.actually the polls may change, the final vote will be different, and
:07:48. > :07:54.perhaps Greeks, if you like, will draw back from the brink and return,
:07:54. > :07:58.perhaps, out of fear of the consequences, to the mainstream
:07:58. > :08:02.party. While we are in this limbo, we have further news of the
:08:02. > :08:06.developing liquidity crisis here. What we have heard today is now
:08:06. > :08:12.Greek patients in pharmacies will have to pay for the first time up
:08:12. > :08:15.front for their medicines, that is because of the enormous arrears,
:08:15. > :08:20.the enormous amounts of money that pharmacies are owed and haven't
:08:20. > :08:24.been paid by the state-backed health insurer.
:08:24. > :08:30.World leaders are heading to America for a G8 meeting tomorrow.
:08:30. > :08:36.Here is our diplomatic editor. Fresh fears you assume of contagion
:08:36. > :08:44.tonight? Absolutely. Some strong elements of deJay have you last
:08:44. > :08:49.night over Greece. FITCH has downgraded Greece to triple C, and
:08:49. > :08:54.France was worried about losing triple-A. People are talking about
:08:54. > :09:04.a slow motion run on the banks in some parts of Spain. I don't know
:09:04. > :09:08.if that is some talk. There is disagreement over how tough we
:09:08. > :09:12.should be with Greece, on whether the package put forward by Nicolas
:09:12. > :09:17.Sarkozy and Angela Merkel last year, should be stuck to. Or whether the
:09:17. > :09:22.new formula of Francois Hollande, more of a growth-based approach
:09:22. > :09:27.should be adopted. How are the key eurozone leaders reacting then, we
:09:27. > :09:30.see it as Germany versus the rest of southern Europe? Increasingly it
:09:30. > :09:34.is looking like Germany versus almost everybody. Strong hints
:09:34. > :09:39.being given out today by Downing Street that David Cameron also
:09:39. > :09:44.favours a solution of looking more at growth, of trying to help Greece.
:09:44. > :09:47.In that sense he could make a very favourable first impression with
:09:47. > :09:51.Monsieur Hollande tomorrow in America, as a possible ally. They
:09:51. > :09:56.have a huge number of things to talk about. The really key issue
:09:56. > :10:01.that still divides people in the EU, is the funding of the called
:10:01. > :10:04.firewall, or the big bazuka, the funds that could be needed to
:10:04. > :10:08.protect the banks, and where exactly the money is coming from
:10:09. > :10:12.growth. Some suggestion that is there could be compromises over
:10:12. > :10:15.structural funds, and structural redevelopment, Hollande says the
:10:15. > :10:19.European bank should issue its own bond, and Britain has said things
:10:19. > :10:22.in the past. The gerplgs are adamant they don't want to do that,
:10:22. > :10:27.because they will end up paying for it. We talk about the eyes of the
:10:27. > :10:31.world, is America immune to this, we are looking ahead to the G8 at
:10:31. > :10:34.Camp David? They are absolutely not immune from it. There seem to go
:10:34. > :10:43.signals that President Obama may be joining that gang in putting
:10:43. > :10:48.pressure on Angela Merkel. Because he too is worried that if things go
:10:48. > :10:52.wrong over the next few weeks with a possible Greek exit, that could
:10:52. > :10:56.impact the US economy, carrying them back to a double-dip, while
:10:56. > :10:59.many of the economic indicators at the moment are OK. And the
:10:59. > :11:02.Europeans are heading over to reassure him that they will come up
:11:02. > :11:06.with something. There is a very important meeting in Europe next
:11:07. > :11:12.week. Meanwhile, we have a message of reassurance from the President
:11:12. > :11:18.of the European council. I believe that in spite of all the
:11:18. > :11:28.difficulties, and we are not complicit in had the challenges, we
:11:28. > :11:30.
:11:30. > :11:35.are on the right track. I bring you a message of confidence. We are
:11:35. > :11:39.doing a root and rang reform. have Mario Baldassarri, an Italian
:11:39. > :11:46.senator who sits on the budget committee, David McWilliams, an
:11:46. > :11:49.Irish economist, our guest from Skype, and Chrystia Freeland from
:11:49. > :11:53.the USA will be joining us a little later.
:11:53. > :11:58.David McWilliams, if I can start with you, we know Ireland has taken
:11:58. > :12:03.the bitter pill, how do people there see the drama in Athens?
:12:03. > :12:07.look Atkinson thens, people are nervous -- at Athens, people are
:12:07. > :12:11.nervous and see it moving towards an end game in Athens. We also
:12:11. > :12:14.realise, having gone through four years of this ourselves, that the
:12:14. > :12:17.three big issues aren't solved, there is too much debt, no growth
:12:17. > :12:20.and no political leadership. As a consequence of that, and
:12:21. > :12:24.particularly the legacy of debt, the economies continue to weaken.
:12:24. > :12:28.We in Ireland can understand exactly what is going on in Greece,
:12:28. > :12:33.not least because we are clearly not in a situation quite as bad as
:12:33. > :12:37.Greece, but in a broadly similar situation when people have too much
:12:37. > :12:39.debt, they don't want to spend. When the banks, as you heard from
:12:39. > :12:44.your correspondents have too much bad debt, they don't have the
:12:44. > :12:48.ability to lend. And consequently, imposing austerity on a country
:12:48. > :12:54.where the people don't want to borrow, and the banks don't want to
:12:54. > :12:58.lend, is almost like putting an anorexic on the diet, and expecting
:12:58. > :13:01.that person to put on weight and get stronger. Ultimately from the
:13:01. > :13:05.Irish perspective, we have seen the legacy of debt, and the fact there
:13:05. > :13:08.is no political leadership, leading to the growth rate falling, this
:13:08. > :13:13.increasing the level of unemployment, and increasing the
:13:13. > :13:18.agitation of people. Let me ask, with your anorexic on a tkwriet, do
:13:18. > :13:22.you see that as a -- diet, do you see that as a fiscal referendum on
:13:22. > :13:25.the pact, will you say no to that? Many Irish people will looking at
:13:25. > :13:28.what is happening in Greece and Spain at the moment. They realise
:13:28. > :13:33.that the game is in play. In that sense, as your correspondent was
:13:33. > :13:37.saying, Germany has to shift. We are moving towards probably a grand
:13:37. > :13:41.bargain in Europe. Therefore, the fiscal treaty in Ireland may well
:13:41. > :13:45.be seen by many Irish people as an opportunity to express our
:13:45. > :13:48.dissatisfaction, which is what is going on. This has changed over the
:13:48. > :13:51.last couple of days really. Because of what's happening in Greece, and
:13:51. > :13:56.because of what's happening in Spain. Briefly you think there will
:13:56. > :14:00.be a no-vote there? I think the polls will narrow very dramatically
:14:00. > :14:05.over the course of the next ten days. Interesting to watch that.
:14:05. > :14:10.Let's go to Spain and pick up the story there. There was a rumour of
:14:10. > :14:13.a run on a major bank there. Do you think your own Government can bail
:14:13. > :14:18.out the banking system? I don't think it can, I don't think it can
:14:18. > :14:23.find the funds needed to bail out the entire banking system, in Spain
:14:23. > :14:28.we have a two-tier banking system, there are solvent banks, large
:14:28. > :14:31.institution, and we have what is left over, left behind from the old
:14:31. > :14:38.system, being transformed into banks, while this is happening they
:14:38. > :14:42.still have governance problems, and we have these big, big problems
:14:42. > :14:47.with Bankia, whose balance sheet is about 38% of Spanish GDP.
:14:47. > :14:52.Essentially it is worth nothing. That was the bank that was not
:14:53. > :14:57.really run, but which was having a large flee of deposits. A lot of
:14:57. > :15:02.people, frankly, are saying Spain is next in line. How big a bail out
:15:02. > :15:08.do you think you would need? know the way we see it from here
:15:08. > :15:13.today, at this point in time, May 17th, it is not that we need a 50%
:15:13. > :15:18.of GDP bail out like the ones that have been served for Greece and
:15:18. > :15:25.Ireland and Portugal, but it is rather something more to the tune
:15:25. > :15:30.of maybe 50 billion euros, to bail out the banking sector, the damaged
:15:30. > :15:34.part of the Spanish banking sector. I don't think right now anybody in
:15:34. > :15:41.Spain is thinking a major bail out with a major intervention from the
:15:41. > :15:46.IMF, the ECB and the European group institutions. Mario Baldassarri,
:15:46. > :15:55.the Italians, Italy would love to see Germany bail out Greece, right?
:15:55. > :15:59.Well, you know, the key point is that we are playing some kind of
:15:59. > :16:03.sado-masochistic end game since the beginning of the Greek crisis. The
:16:03. > :16:10.key point is we have to cheer up what we are talking about. We are
:16:10. > :16:17.facing a crisis of a small country, 11 million inhabitants, over 320
:16:17. > :16:22.million Europeans. It is like a crisis in a council asking to go
:16:22. > :16:27.with the dollars and the United States and the Federal Reserve. We
:16:27. > :16:34.don't yet have the United States of Europe. And actually we need to
:16:34. > :16:39.behave as we would have already have the United States of Europe.
:16:39. > :16:45.Which is asking French for financial equilibrium, but giving
:16:45. > :16:48.them some kind of Marshall Plan to readjust not in ten months, but ten
:16:48. > :16:52.years. This should be a United States of Europe. This is something
:16:52. > :17:01.that Germany has to understand. think that Germany has been unfair
:17:01. > :17:07.on Greece so far? Well, the point is this, two years ago, if you had
:17:07. > :17:12.given Greece 40 billion euros support, and then ask it the day
:17:12. > :17:16.after, asking Greece to take under controlled administration the
:17:16. > :17:22.accountant with Greece, with 40 million euros two years ago, the
:17:22. > :17:28.situation could be faced at that time. Now it might be that it will
:17:28. > :17:32.cost 150 billion euro, and maybe Greece will go out of the euro.
:17:32. > :17:36.point is it is very politically sensitive, you listen to Ireland,
:17:36. > :17:42.to Spain, to Italy, if you were a German taxpayer now, you would be
:17:42. > :17:50.saying why is this burden just falling on us? Because it would be
:17:50. > :17:54.a disaster for Germany. Germany cannot behave a single country,
:17:54. > :18:01.without facing the globalisation. Europe needs to have the United
:18:01. > :18:04.States of Europe. Germany may lead this process, but take the
:18:04. > :18:10.responsibility, not only to save Greece, Spain or Italy, whatever.
:18:10. > :18:13.But to save the future of Germany. Can you say, David McWilliams why
:18:13. > :18:16.the Germans would feel they have got shafted, they got a pretty bad
:18:16. > :18:20.deal here? You have to look at it from the German point of view. The
:18:20. > :18:24.German point of view realises there is three reasons they want the euro
:18:24. > :18:28.to stay in place. The first is, they do a huge amount of trade, the
:18:28. > :18:33.lion's share of their trades with the rest of the eurozone. This
:18:33. > :18:43.gives them stability. The second idea, a new damp mark, if it came
:18:43. > :18:45.around, would dram -- Deutschmark, if it if it came around would
:18:45. > :18:49.dramatically decrease trade. The Germans like all the capital
:18:49. > :18:52.leaving the periphery, Italy, Spain and Ireland, is going to Germany.
:18:52. > :18:55.They are getting a free lunch in terms of their own interest rates,
:18:55. > :19:00.they are falling dramatically. They have three big reasons to stay in.
:19:00. > :19:05.The way I see it, it always seems that Germany is a bit like a very,
:19:05. > :19:08.very good, house proud neighbour n a bad estate, in a bad
:19:08. > :19:11.neighbourhood. Increasingly what is happening is the neighbours are
:19:11. > :19:15.behaving more delinquently, than the Germans need to deal W they
:19:15. > :19:20.need to the fix the thing. Therefore, they have a price. The
:19:20. > :19:25.price is, what price is Germany willing to pay for their neighbours
:19:26. > :19:30.to clean up their act. That is really where we are going right now.
:19:30. > :19:34.Chrystia Freeland is nodding as you speak. I want a US perspective. It
:19:34. > :19:38.was interesting to hear from Mark, that Obama is also pushing for more
:19:38. > :19:44.support from Angela Merkel. Why does America have to care, it's on
:19:44. > :19:47.the road to recovery now isn't it? Traditionally America doesn't care
:19:47. > :19:50.that much about Europe, particularly this year with an
:19:50. > :19:55.election season. Europe has been pretty far off the political and
:19:55. > :19:58.economic agenda. But, with the crisis intensifing in Europe, a lot
:19:58. > :20:04.of people, particularly in the White House, close to the President,
:20:04. > :20:07.are really starting to worry that what happens in Athens and Berlin,
:20:07. > :20:10.could play a bigger role in deciding the US election in
:20:10. > :20:14.November, than anything that happens in the United States. So
:20:14. > :20:24.Barack Obama in particular, is desperate for Angela Merkel to fix
:20:24. > :20:24.
:20:24. > :20:29.this. So the suggestion is the other side would be quite happy to
:20:29. > :20:33.see everything going belly-up? think no political leader will ever
:20:33. > :20:38.say he wishes ill on the world, but certainly, I think it is true that
:20:38. > :20:42.if the global economy gets a lot weaker, and with it the US recovery
:20:42. > :20:49.gets knocked off worse, that certainly is good for Vladimir
:20:49. > :20:52.Romanov and bad for Barack Obama. The -- Mitt Romney, and bad for
:20:52. > :20:58.Barack Obama. The other interesting thing is playing into the American
:20:58. > :21:02.debate, is whether you should be focusing on austerity and cutting
:21:02. > :21:12.budgets, or stimuli. Both sides claim Europe as vindication of
:21:12. > :21:12.
:21:12. > :21:20.their views. We are running out of time.? In a couple of words, will
:21:20. > :21:23.Greece stay in Europe? I think not. Mario Baldassarri? I hope question
:21:23. > :21:27.-- yes, because the alternative would be very costly for everybody,
:21:27. > :21:30.including the United States. David McWilliams where do you sit on
:21:30. > :21:34.this? I don't think the Greek also stay in the euro, I don't think
:21:34. > :21:40.they can possibly do that, their economy is too weak, they will move
:21:40. > :21:44.in the next few weeks away from the euro. That is what the politics are
:21:44. > :21:51.telling us. Javier Diaz Gimenez? I'm hoping the Greeks will find a
:21:51. > :21:55.way to keep the euro-area together. Thank you for joining us. Could
:21:55. > :22:01.destroying a field of plants be the same as burning books. That is what
:22:01. > :22:07.scientists are claiming in the face of action by protestors being
:22:07. > :22:12.threatened in ten days time in Hertfordshire. Scientists there
:22:12. > :22:18.admit they can't prevent the plants being destroyed, but are pleading
:22:18. > :22:27.for it to continue. We have the head of the project and a leading
:22:27. > :22:34.activist Take The Flower scam back -- Back.
:22:34. > :22:39.This is GM wheat, the first of its kind in the world. It is being
:22:39. > :22:44.modified to repel aphid pest, which cost farmers millions in lost yield
:22:44. > :22:49.and damage to crops. Researchers want to test it in open air, the
:22:49. > :22:53.opponents say the trial is a risk, some plan to destroy it. Prompting
:22:53. > :22:57.an unusual YouTube plea from the team that created it. We know we
:22:58. > :23:00.cannot stop you taking the action you are planning to take, but
:23:00. > :23:05.please reconsider, before it is too late, and before several years
:23:05. > :23:11.worth of work, to which we have been devoting our lives, will be
:23:11. > :23:15.destroyed forever. We appeal to you as
:23:15. > :23:20.environmentalists...Toby Bruce is one of the researchers. The wheat
:23:20. > :23:25.has an added gene, that makes it release a chemical signal, similar
:23:25. > :23:29.to one aphids produce naturally, to alert one another to danger.
:23:29. > :23:35.idea of these plants is to rebel the aphids, but attract their
:23:35. > :23:41.natural enemies. In this demo, if a drob of the alarm signal is dropped
:23:41. > :23:46.here the aphid, they crawl away, at quite a pace. With what are
:23:46. > :23:51.spectacular lab results, the next test is to see if the modified
:23:51. > :23:56.wheat works outside. The head of their serial transformation lab
:23:56. > :24:00.told us they are having to take extraordinary measures. The fence
:24:00. > :24:05.is there for two reasons, to protect the trial from foxes and
:24:05. > :24:11.rabbits that might want to eat the plants. But also to prevent access
:24:11. > :24:14.to unauthorised humans. That includes the protestors, they have
:24:14. > :24:18.installed CCTV, and an infrared beam around the edge of the field.
:24:18. > :24:22.It is not easy to get close to these plants. But security is
:24:23. > :24:26.expensive. A quarter of the project's total cost, so far.
:24:26. > :24:30.Opponents say the work should stay in the lab, because out in the open
:24:30. > :24:37.there is a risk that GM pollen will travel beyond the test field. But
:24:37. > :24:41.the scientist say the risk of that happening is tiny. Wheat is self-
:24:41. > :24:45.pollinated. It is not pollinated by wind or insects, excess pollen will
:24:45. > :24:50.fall to the ground, it is heavy and has a short life span. Once outside
:24:50. > :24:55.the flower it will last an hour or less. The experimental plants sit
:24:55. > :25:03.inside a buffer zone, designed to lower the risk of any GM pollen
:25:03. > :25:11.escaping. Peter is a conventional farmer in Lincolnshire, and a vocal
:25:11. > :25:16.critic of this trial. He grows wheat and rears gloser All Spot pig
:25:16. > :25:19.-- Gloucester All Spot Pigs, he questions why the scientists are
:25:19. > :25:24.testing a wheat that is rarely grown in the UK. Spring wheat, a
:25:24. > :25:34.variety used for the trial, is only 1% of the UK wheat crop. This is
:25:34. > :25:36.
:25:36. > :25:40.winter wheat, that is the 99% we depend on to feed the animals and
:25:40. > :25:45.the people. The test may moven to winter wheat, but Peter is not
:25:45. > :25:51.convinced this is something he needs at all. If aphids become a
:25:51. > :25:55.problem in spring wheat, and they don't always. I have access to
:25:55. > :26:01.selective insecticide that is are reasonably safe to use with bees
:26:01. > :26:07.and ladybirds and others, and only cost �2 an acre. He wouldn't go so
:26:07. > :26:12.far as destroying the GM wheat, but is he concerned that such crops
:26:12. > :26:16.pose a threat to farmers' livelihoods. In America a small
:26:16. > :26:20.trial in rice ended up contaminating the whole United
:26:20. > :26:26.States rice harvest. There is potential for enormous damage.
:26:26. > :26:30.incident with GM rice, not an isolated example of contamination,
:26:30. > :26:34.prompted temporary bans in 2006 in Japan and Russia, on rice imports
:26:34. > :26:39.from the US. After trace amounts of a non-authorised GM rice was found
:26:39. > :26:45.in commercial supplies. Protestors objected to research
:26:45. > :26:49.trials, partly because of that leakiness in the food chain, when
:26:49. > :26:54.GM crops was first planted out in the UK some ten years ago. They saw
:26:54. > :27:02.this as a technology being forced on consumers, who didn't want it,
:27:02. > :27:07.and which put multinatural co- operations in charge, not farmers.
:27:07. > :27:11.Europe entered a decade of stalemate over GM agriculture.
:27:11. > :27:17.Elsewhere the planting of GM crops has increased steadily. The latest
:27:17. > :27:24.figures from the industry indicate that some 160 million hectares of
:27:24. > :27:33.GM crops, such as soya bean and maize was grown across the globe.
:27:33. > :27:39.The top growers were the US, Canada, India, China, China growing four
:27:39. > :27:42.million hectares, little was grown in the African continent, apart
:27:42. > :27:46.from three million hectares, Europe is banging back, with one million
:27:46. > :27:51.of hectares grown last year. Many scientists take the view that since
:27:51. > :27:55.such a volume of GM crops has now been grown, and eaten around the
:27:55. > :28:00.world, any serious problem would be apparent by now. Where the harm to
:28:01. > :28:04.human health, or widespread impact on the environment.
:28:04. > :28:08.The National Farmers' Union says we will need every tool in our tool
:28:08. > :28:13.box to meet future food demands, including GM crops, that can cope
:28:13. > :28:17.in dry conditions, need fewer pesticides, or offer nutritional
:28:17. > :28:21.benefits. We see a lot of it as being public good. One of the
:28:21. > :28:26.things we can do is offer something that maybe industry would never
:28:26. > :28:29.come up with, the reduction of the use of chemicals. We need to prime
:28:29. > :28:34.the pump with new ideas to give alternatives. First of all, it is
:28:34. > :28:39.giving choice in the overall system, so that we can actually do some
:28:39. > :28:44.public good, by reducing pesticide use. I think the general public are
:28:44. > :28:48.certainly interested in that. But campaigners argue there has not
:28:48. > :28:53.yet been the systematic data collection, to be certain of the
:28:53. > :28:58.effects of GM. We're not saying stop doing research on GM, but we
:28:58. > :29:03.won't be in the lab until we fully understand how genes work, how they
:29:03. > :29:06.relate to the environment and each other, and what makes them tick. We
:29:06. > :29:10.don't know all that yet, and we shouldn't introduce things into the
:29:10. > :29:13.environment and food chain until we have a pretty good understanding of
:29:13. > :29:18.it. Way beyond what we have at the moment.
:29:18. > :29:21.Some campaigners say there is a third way. Scientists have decoded
:29:21. > :29:29.entire genetic maps for staple crops. Here you see a model of the
:29:29. > :29:33.way rice genes interact. This means they can select plants that carry
:29:33. > :29:36.desirable genetic traits, and breed from those, rather than adding in
:29:36. > :29:41.extra genes. Meanwhile the scientists concede they don't have
:29:41. > :29:44.all the answers, which is why they want to conduct the GM experiment,
:29:44. > :29:53.the protestors argue that the trial represents a threat to British
:29:53. > :30:03.farming. And if the scientists won't stop it, they say, they will.
:30:03. > :30:08.
:30:08. > :30:11.Here in what is a completely GM- free studio, our guests are with us.
:30:11. > :30:16.It is great to have you all here. Thank you for coming in.
:30:16. > :30:19.We heard from a speaker who said he certainly didn't want to stop the
:30:19. > :30:25.research, even though he was against GM. Are you going to let
:30:25. > :30:29.this trial go ahead? I certainly believe in the power of non-violent
:30:29. > :30:32.direct action, in illustrating something that is a really
:30:32. > :30:35.important principle, that is this is the sort of science we don't
:30:35. > :30:39.want progress to move in the direction of, because it is really
:30:39. > :30:42.dangerous. I appeal very strong -- I feel very strongly it is
:30:42. > :30:47.important to look at the wider cultural and social implications of
:30:47. > :30:52.GM ago tulure, I think it is a very dangerous stamp of validity when
:30:52. > :30:57.you look at the trial. Would you stop it, you will uproot the plant?
:30:57. > :31:00.I will stop it. I would like to decide on the day if it is a valid
:31:00. > :31:04.action. I believe it is important to state you will do that sort of
:31:04. > :31:08.thing, in order to get on Newsnight and talk about it, and say can we
:31:08. > :31:12.enter into a debate about this. People have been writing lots of
:31:12. > :31:17.letters, people have been entering into consultations, all the GM
:31:17. > :31:22.protestors have been saying for over a decade, we don't want
:31:23. > :31:27.Government research to be focused on GM technology when there are
:31:27. > :31:29.other things available. We need direct action to stop that. We have
:31:30. > :31:34.a mandate by achieving the research grant for doing this work. It is
:31:34. > :31:39.top science, and it is in the direction of producing food in a
:31:39. > :31:43.more sustainable way. We are using GM only experimentally at the
:31:43. > :31:47.moment, it is not going into the food chain. It is not part of a
:31:47. > :31:50.commercial development. What do you mean by sustainability. What I mean
:31:50. > :31:55.by sustainability, is if you can deliver crop protection through the
:31:55. > :31:59.seed F you can have in the plant its own way of dealing with pests,
:31:59. > :32:05.then you don't need to drive a tractor over the crop with a spray
:32:05. > :32:10.on it, and the carbon footprint. There is holistic ecosystem
:32:10. > :32:14.management. As you know, we work in Africa in just that way, because,
:32:14. > :32:20.in fact, there, people are not buying fertilisers, and not buying
:32:20. > :32:24.seed, so you can't deliver it in that way. We use companion cropping,
:32:24. > :32:29.as you may in organic farming. me ask you something, you said this
:32:29. > :32:33.was purely for science. But you said in the past that companies are
:32:33. > :32:38.keeping a watching brief, and you are wined and dined heavily by
:32:39. > :32:44.academic groups in the UK. There is money to be made for you out of
:32:44. > :32:49.this? Not for us, we do our work to get grants for research, elite
:32:49. > :32:53.research, which we get during the process of competitive tendering,
:32:53. > :32:59.as it were, with due regard to our peers and what they consider it.
:32:59. > :33:02.There is no way this is science for science sake? No, I said it was in
:33:02. > :33:06.the direction of sustainability. I have explained why it is leading to
:33:06. > :33:10.a sustainable approach to agriculture. In your terms, in your
:33:10. > :33:13.terms, we have other terms of sustainability. If you want to go
:33:13. > :33:17.out and companion plant, in a wheat crop in Britain, you will have to
:33:17. > :33:23.put a lot more labour in. I'm a full-time farmer, I know farmers
:33:23. > :33:26.all around me who do companion planting, they plant banks of wild
:33:26. > :33:34.flowers along the edges of the field, and mounds for wild flowers,
:33:34. > :33:38.they do it here. I'm going to bring in Lawrence, you have spoken and
:33:38. > :33:42.thought a lot about organic farming, this, in a way, sounds like it is
:33:42. > :33:46.the grown-up version, the green version of GM, a decade on, isn't
:33:46. > :33:51.it? Not at all. My background is organic farming, I'm involved now
:33:51. > :33:55.with a group of citizens concerned about GM, not necessarily opposed
:33:55. > :33:59.to GM, but concerned about GM. Our concerns about this trial. First of
:33:59. > :34:02.all, we don't believe it is necessary secondly, we don't
:34:02. > :34:06.believe that the process of -- necessary, secondly, we don't
:34:06. > :34:13.believe the vetting process has been adequate. And thirdly, if we
:34:13. > :34:18.are talking about grown-up ecology, this group and other research
:34:18. > :34:24.groups, reported 2005, a three-year trial, a million pound of tax-
:34:24. > :34:28.payers' money spent, looking at ecological actions, dealing with
:34:28. > :34:33.aphids, without as youing GM and chemicals, looking at the farming
:34:33. > :34:36.systems, the hedgerows, the surround of the fields, this hasn't
:34:36. > :34:39.been taken into account in the trial. Are you saying, stop that
:34:39. > :34:44.science now, we have had enough? I'm saying this trial is
:34:44. > :34:49.unnecessary, on a crop that really doesn't suffer from aphid problems.
:34:49. > :34:52.You don't like this kind of science at all, right? As was said in the
:34:52. > :34:56.film, I think the GM research really needs to be done in
:34:56. > :35:01.controlled environments, when you take it out into the field, it
:35:01. > :35:05.raises bigger problems, bigger risks, and those need to be
:35:05. > :35:08.assessed properly. Our regulatory system doesn't do. That we need a
:35:08. > :35:12.question about need. We need to be clear here that we are talking
:35:12. > :35:17.about a controlled environment. In a sense this research is going on
:35:17. > :35:20.in a experimental setting. It is not a controlled environment.
:35:20. > :35:24.let her speak. The thing they are looking for researchers to find out,
:35:24. > :35:27.are the very answers to the questions that you are posing. If
:35:27. > :35:31.we cut off that research lion, we aren't going to answer it. It is
:35:31. > :35:35.foolish, I agree...Does It matter that the public has consistently
:35:35. > :35:38.shown itself to be against this kind of testing? I think there is a
:35:38. > :35:42.change in climate at the moment. We are getting a tremendous amount of
:35:42. > :35:45.support. I'm very sad that some people are not supporting us, I'm
:35:45. > :35:49.very keen to engage in further dialogue on this, to explain our
:35:49. > :35:53.point of view. We are certainly looking at an experiment, we have
:35:53. > :35:57.chosen wheat, because it is our most important crop, and aphids are
:35:57. > :36:07.the most important pests on it. We can work on winter wheat, as you
:36:07. > :36:07.
:36:07. > :36:13.know we have it in cond, -- condenza. Aphids are not a problem
:36:13. > :36:17.in winter wheat. Last year we had a big problem in aphids in spring-
:36:17. > :36:24.sown wheat. Our out of the last six sea ons there is no aphid problems
:36:24. > :36:31.in the UK. Four out of the last six seasons. Aphid transmit a virus to
:36:31. > :36:34.wheat, that is transmitted by aphids in the autumn. That becomes
:36:34. > :36:38.a problem because of early drilling, you can deal with that problem.
:36:38. > :36:42.Let's step back, because the point of the winter and the summer, is
:36:42. > :36:49.that summer wheat tends to be a crop that is grown more in the USA.
:36:50. > :36:52.It is something that they use more, which suggests that what you are
:36:52. > :36:56.planning long-term. There is no conspiracy here, we are very keen
:36:56. > :37:00.to see how this kind of approach works. Winter wheat would be a very
:37:00. > :37:05.nice model, it would be a lot more expensive to be the experiments
:37:05. > :37:09.initially on it. We are doinging it in spring-sown wheat, in a variety
:37:09. > :37:13.that can be grown as a winter wheat. If you are looking at this properly,
:37:13. > :37:19.and talking about serious ecological interactions to deal
:37:19. > :37:23.with aphids, this trial should look more at the margins of the field,
:37:23. > :37:27.the hedgerows. What gives you, wait a second, what gives you the right
:37:27. > :37:31.to say this kind of trial, this kind of science should not go
:37:31. > :37:35.ahead? Because I have a lot of experience and I feel very
:37:35. > :37:41.passionately about it. I'm a farmer myself. My family has a farm in
:37:41. > :37:45.Iowa, and I have directly seen the impact of GM agriculture, and the
:37:45. > :37:49.intensive affect on our family farm in Iowa. It is very much about the
:37:49. > :37:56.land in one sense, and now farmers are being pushed and pushed and
:37:56. > :38:02.pushed to cultivate huge margins, and go to the edge of the fields to
:38:02. > :38:05.get the maximum amount about fields. You are making moral decisions the
:38:05. > :38:09.whole time? We can sit and "cherrypick" all kind of stories,
:38:09. > :38:12.there are mixed stories. Just let Tracey talk? Which is is actually
:38:12. > :38:18.why it is that it would be much more valuable for you guys to be
:38:18. > :38:21.involved in a debate, rather than come in and rip up the experiment.
:38:21. > :38:28.There is an awful lot of information. You don't seem to be
:38:28. > :38:34.wanting to go on the debate with us, we have offered a debate on Tuesday.
:38:34. > :38:37.We would like a more thorough debate. We think the debate should
:38:37. > :38:40.precede you destroying the experiment, if that is what you are
:38:40. > :38:44.doing. If we didn't threaten it, you wouldn't have asked us.
:38:45. > :38:49.least see the results of the debate before attacking the crop. That
:38:49. > :38:53.sounds positive, it soupbtdz like you won't go ahead with ripping up
:38:53. > :38:57.the crop, but would rather debate. I'm not going in either direction.
:38:57. > :39:00.Do you think it will succeed? think there are many problems with
:39:00. > :39:03.doing experiments in the field. We have to do the experiment, we have
:39:03. > :39:07.done a lot of work in the lab. Experiments don't work the first
:39:07. > :39:12.time. We have to see how it stands up to the rigours of the outside he
:39:12. > :39:16.can kolg. I think it would be a very good -- Ecology. Farmers have
:39:16. > :39:20.beenest iting this sort of thing for centuries, they have been work
:39:20. > :39:24.-- this sort of thing for -- testing this sort of thing for
:39:24. > :39:28.centuries. What do you make of the National Farmers' Union who say we
:39:28. > :39:33.have to use every tool in the tool box to fight growth in population
:39:33. > :39:37.and starvation, they don't count, the National Farmers' Union don't
:39:37. > :39:40.count? They are working on a lower level. You have to look in the
:39:40. > :39:44.farming press, many conventional farmers have come out and said this
:39:44. > :39:50.trial is irrelevant. We had one farmer on the video earlier. This
:39:50. > :39:53.trial is irrelevant, this work is irrelevant. This is not true.
:39:53. > :39:57.asked whether people are for origins, I think we need to stop
:39:57. > :40:00.asking people that question. What GM does is opens up a very exciting
:40:00. > :40:04.and interesting area of research, that may provide answers to some of
:40:04. > :40:08.the most pressing questions. We can't blank it. Has your mind been
:40:08. > :40:12.change bid this discussion? I would like to discuss it further, and I
:40:12. > :40:16.would like to encourage you to look at the wider social implications.
:40:16. > :40:21.We have done, and we will discuss it with you as much as you like.
:40:21. > :40:30.Thank you very much indeed. If you understand the complexties
:40:30. > :40:34.of how the trader they call the London Whale, lost his bank JP
:40:34. > :40:39.motoring began three billion dollars and counting, you are doing
:40:39. > :40:49.better than us. Has the world got wiser with the risks and rewards
:40:49. > :40:54.that dominate highens if, or are we still in danger of the -- dom
:40:54. > :40:59.dominate, are we still in danger. The portfolio has proved to be more
:40:59. > :41:03.risky and volatile to the economic edge than we thought.
:41:03. > :41:06.Today JP Morgan admitted their losses amount to at least $3
:41:06. > :41:12.billion and could be more. They were caused by the trader, Bruno
:41:12. > :41:18.Iksil, who earned the Monday Kerr "the London Whale," because of the
:41:18. > :41:21.size of the transactions he did. Ina Drew quit the bank this week as
:41:21. > :41:26.it fought to contain the losses. It is hardly the first financial
:41:26. > :41:33.scandal to hit the markets. Earlier this year there was a collapse of
:41:33. > :41:37.MF Global, after billions of pounds of disastrous bets went wrong.
:41:37. > :41:43.There have been sweeping changes to bank regular gaigs, but critics
:41:43. > :41:50.argue big bonuses, big risks and big losses seem as common as ever.
:41:50. > :41:54.Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Professor of Risk and Engineering and author of
:41:54. > :41:58.The Black Swan is in New York and talking to us this evening. It
:41:58. > :42:03.feels time and time again we have seen this happen. Why do the banks
:42:03. > :42:08.let it happen, do they not know about it, turn their back on it or
:42:08. > :42:11.do they not understand it? I think all three. Primarily I think
:42:11. > :42:16.incompetence, they don't seem to know what they are talking about
:42:16. > :42:20.when talking about risk. We have known since 1998 that two of the
:42:20. > :42:27.tools used to manage risk don't work. We have had the tragedy of
:42:27. > :42:34.LTCM, Long-term Capital Management, a firm that got the wrong name,
:42:34. > :42:39.that went bust relying on these tools. We kept using the same
:42:40. > :42:45.methods. In 2007 we discovered these methods of risk don't work,
:42:45. > :42:49.they were relying on the risk metrics. So it is nonsense, they
:42:49. > :42:56.are using the wrong tool, it is part of a system, it would happen
:42:56. > :43:01.else where building bridges, and telling us these bridges can landle
:43:01. > :43:06.500 trucks and they break at the third truck. Visibly we are -- can
:43:06. > :43:11.handle 500 trucks and they break at the third truck. Visibly we are
:43:11. > :43:15.using tax-payers' money as a back stop. They don't want to learn.
:43:15. > :43:20.I want to get on to that in a second, that is key. Looking at
:43:20. > :43:23.this example, it is a very complicated derivative system, but
:43:23. > :43:32.broadly, this man, the London Whale, was trying to balance the risks. He
:43:32. > :43:36.was trying to make it impossible to lose. Why would that go wrong?
:43:36. > :43:40.Number one, it is based on a big illusion, the fact that we
:43:40. > :43:43.understand the risk of rare events. It is a business they shouldn't be
:43:43. > :43:46.in, it is too complicated for them. We have known the business is too
:43:46. > :43:51.complicated for Wall Street, for the banks, or all banks, we have
:43:51. > :43:55.known it is very complicated. They should get out of that business. JP
:43:55. > :43:58.Morgan should concentrate on lending money to farmers, or
:43:58. > :44:05.whatever, car loans, that is the business they should be in. They
:44:05. > :44:11.shouldn't be using my money to play in a way that is too dangerous and
:44:11. > :44:15.complicated for them. JP Morgan has ten-times the risk of the original
:44:16. > :44:20.hedge fund. Do you say they should be more regulated or they should be
:44:20. > :44:25.allowed to go bust when it goes wrong? Both of them. When the event
:44:25. > :44:29.happens, I'm against you know nationalisation, and I'm against
:44:29. > :44:34.centralised Government. I'm against regulation. I was a derivatives
:44:34. > :44:38.trader for 20 years, and it gained regulation. I wanted a following, a
:44:38. > :44:44.skin in the game, people who make money, if they have the upside,
:44:44. > :44:51.they should get a bonus, and people should be down with the down side.
:44:51. > :44:57.Hedge funds had that. The risks that are pure risk, gambling, if
:44:57. > :45:02.you like, these risks should be borne by hedge funds with up sides
:45:02. > :45:08.and down sides. Banks, if we are bailing them out, they are ustill
:45:08. > :45:13.fees, why not treat them -- utilities, why are you treating
:45:13. > :45:18.them like utilities. You know you will never convince the banks to
:45:18. > :45:25.leave that side of stuff alone. If it didn't happen as a result of
:45:26. > :45:31.Liam mans, it is never going to happen --ly mans, it is never going
:45:31. > :45:34.-- Lehmans, it is never going to happen? There is a saying, you will
:45:34. > :45:38.never convince a general that the war isn't happening. You can never
:45:38. > :45:43.ask an industry, you have to force it on them. We should never have
:45:43. > :45:47.bailed out the banks so easily in 2008 without explaining them, de
:45:47. > :45:52.facto, you are civil servants. If you are bailing them out, they are
:45:52. > :45:59.civil servants. They went to pay themselves the highest level of
:45:59. > :46:04.bonuses in 2010, it is an insult to our intelligence ,ing these metrics
:46:04. > :46:08.is an insult to our intelligence. Do you think the banks should not
:46:08. > :46:11.have been failed out at all at that point, knowing what you know about
:46:11. > :46:17.the way banks operate and behave? Two things should have been done,
:46:17. > :46:22.the first thing is, we didn't bail out Lehmans, we saw the effect,
:46:22. > :46:26.then came Citibank, we should have then bailed out Citibank on the
:46:26. > :46:31.very stiff condition, explaining them that you know, you are de
:46:31. > :46:38.facto, we don't want to nationalise you. But de facto, you are owned by
:46:38. > :46:44.the taxpayer, you are no longer a free entity. I don't mind risks
:46:44. > :46:49.being taken. You are an idealist? I'm not. I'm not an idealist, I'm
:46:49. > :46:54.someone who doesn't want to be paying $14 million for this lady,
:46:54. > :46:59.Ina Drew, more than the Mafia, I don't want to keep paying her that
:46:59. > :47:04.money for taking risks. Could you convince a politician into saying
:47:04. > :47:11.that? Politicians, visibly, don't have the courage to face lobbies.
:47:11. > :47:16.But the public is convinced that they don't have the information.
:47:16. > :47:19.Thank you very much. That's all from Newsnight tonight. This summer
:47:19. > :47:23.Donna Summer died in Florida. She was called the Queen of Disco by
:47:23. > :47:27.some, and just to get you in the right mood for bed. We will leave
:47:27. > :47:36.you with one of her biggest hits. # Oh I feel love
:47:36. > :47:41.# I feel love # I feel lovele