:00:12. > :00:17.Greece decides its future, and perhaps the future of all of us
:00:17. > :00:23.across Europe. Is this the moment when the eurozone can be lost. It
:00:23. > :00:26.is already getting heated. With all the parties promising some kind of
:00:26. > :00:32.changes to the austerity package, will it be enough to see off the
:00:32. > :00:35.challenge from the far left. Paul Mason is in Athens tonight.
:00:35. > :00:40.The Greek Conservative leader tells his party, if we don't win this one,
:00:40. > :00:43.there won't be a third election, just chaos.
:00:43. > :00:47.Our guest also assess the impact Greece's decision will have on
:00:47. > :00:52.Britain, Europe and the world economy. Also tonight:
:00:53. > :00:58.Before we get on the proper business of the evening, getting
:00:58. > :01:06.chateaued beyond belief. The perils of being posh, as David Cameron now
:01:06. > :01:16.reaches the point where his lifestyle and friends reach a
:01:16. > :01:19.difficult point. We talk to our guests.
:01:19. > :01:23.Good evening, there is something a bit odd about a project involving
:01:23. > :01:28.more than 400 million of the richest people on earth, in which
:01:28. > :01:31.the decisions of handful in a tiny country matter so much. That is the
:01:31. > :01:35.way it looks tonight as the people of Greece prepare to go to the
:01:35. > :01:37.polls on Sunday. Ground down austerity, fed up with politics, as
:01:37. > :01:40.usual, and not entirely sure whether their voting would take
:01:40. > :01:43.Greece out of the yourier row, and even cause the currency and the
:01:43. > :01:49.world economy to collapse. Britain's former Prime Minister,
:01:49. > :01:55.Gordon Brown, warned today of a possibly chaotic exit from the euro,
:01:55. > :02:00.saying Italy and even France might soon need a bail out. Paul you have
:02:00. > :02:03.been there all week in Athens who will win, you must be an expert?
:02:03. > :02:07.Opinion polls are banned before the election. A lot of people in the
:02:07. > :02:15.world of banking in the last couple of days have seen and told me about
:02:15. > :02:19.private polls, who say New Demok on 30, Syriza, the far left, on 27,
:02:19. > :02:24.but margins of error there, quite crucial. That still leaves another
:02:24. > :02:28.40% of voters. But what will happen in this election depends first of
:02:28. > :02:33.all on the turn out, whether people who realise, this is it, this is
:02:33. > :02:37.the election that decides Greece's fate, and that they suddenly have,
:02:37. > :02:40.which they didn't realise before, a choice for a far left party that
:02:40. > :02:45.will take them out of the austerity and into the unknown, as we are
:02:45. > :02:49.about to see, whether people just turn out. Or, whether people, it is
:02:49. > :02:52.a were, the fear vote and Mr Samaras, the leader of the
:02:52. > :02:55.Conservatives has been playing on that fear all week, whether the
:02:55. > :02:59.fear vote just rushes, in larger numbers than the polls are
:02:59. > :03:01.predicting, to the Conservatives. We will probably get a decisive
:03:02. > :03:07.outcome. That is my feeling, I don't know which it is. There are,
:03:07. > :03:12.there is a minority of pollster who is say watch out for a Syriza
:03:12. > :03:17.landslide. But New Democracy had a big rally today, what about their
:03:17. > :03:20.leader have to say to the party faithful? He said if we don't win
:03:20. > :03:23.this, there will be so much economic chaos, we might not get to
:03:24. > :03:27.a third election. He didn't specify what would actually prevent Greece
:03:27. > :03:33.getting to a third election. But it is the rhetoric like that, that I
:03:33. > :03:37.think people are responding to. Mr Samaras said this is an election
:03:37. > :03:47.about the euro, we are in or we're out. Vote me and we are in, vote
:03:47. > :03:51.for the left and we are out. The left vehemently denies. That you
:03:51. > :03:55.can't overestimate how pro-Europe that far left Syriza are, they
:03:55. > :04:00.genuinely believe they can make Greece work as part of the euro, if
:04:00. > :04:04.they get some breathing space to do a much more radical, almost left
:04:04. > :04:08.Social Democratic version of a growth strategy. So, you know,
:04:08. > :04:13.Greece's voters are being presented with a real choice, not a rhetoric
:04:13. > :04:18.choice. It is a real choice between two paths out within the euro. But,
:04:18. > :04:22.you know, the experience of being here all week, going to far flung
:04:22. > :04:26.village, ar meet -- and meeting people who have never met a member
:04:26. > :04:29.of Syriza, saying en masse, they are going to vote for them. This is
:04:29. > :04:32.something Greek politics hasn't seen, since the end of the
:04:33. > :04:38.dictatorship. And very briefly, Paul, how
:04:38. > :04:42.prepared is the rest of Europe f any one of these chaotic scenarios
:04:42. > :04:46.the one we end up with on Monday? Mr Cameron was teleconferencing
:04:46. > :04:50.this afternoon. They have cancelled the attendance of certain people at
:04:50. > :04:59.the Mexico G20, or they have postponeed it. They will throw all
:04:59. > :05:04.kind of things at t they will throw liquidity, Central Bank action. It
:05:04. > :05:11.is not really Syriza wins and everything going haywire, it is New
:05:11. > :05:14.Democracy wins and they can't rule. For the Greek middle-class, it was
:05:14. > :05:18.time tonight for one last drink before the unknown.
:05:18. > :05:25.For many people in business, business is frozen. There is little
:05:25. > :05:28.investment coming in, and credit is drying up. Beneath the laidback
:05:28. > :05:31.surface, mainstream politics are getting tense. There are no opinion
:05:31. > :05:36.polls allowed at this stage of the election. Many Greeks have seen or
:05:36. > :05:39.heard of, private opinion polls that indicate the Conservative New
:05:39. > :05:44.Democracy party, could get 30%. Enough, just, to beat the far left,
:05:44. > :05:48.and form a Government. But then, the problems start. Partly, because
:05:49. > :05:56.of the scale of the Greek crisis, partly, because of the
:05:56. > :06:03.peculiarities of Greek Conservatism. This is the party on which the
:06:03. > :06:07.hopes of Brussels and Berlin rest. New Democracy, getting ready for
:06:07. > :06:14.its final rally in Syntagma Sqare. Like PASOK, it is a party blil
:06:14. > :06:20.built on 0 years of two-party patrons -- it is a party built on
:06:20. > :06:26.20 years of two-party patronage. How does the party operate when it
:06:26. > :06:30.has to dismantle clientism? Necessity is a big teacher. Now
:06:30. > :06:34.there is not that much money to hand out, or positions in the
:06:34. > :06:39.public sector. There aren't going to be many hirings in the public
:06:39. > :06:44.sector. In order to maintain power, they cannot for more than a few
:06:44. > :06:50.months, they cannot depend on their old tricks. The worry is, without
:06:50. > :06:59.anything to offer voters but more austerity and pain, ND, will find
:06:59. > :07:04.it hard to rule, even if it wins. This is one of New Democracy's
:07:04. > :07:10.leading lights. In 2010 she was kicked out for supporting the
:07:10. > :07:16.austerity plan, which at the time, the Conservatives didn't want. She
:07:16. > :07:19.has rejoined and could be a new minister if they win. If New
:07:19. > :07:25.Democracy and their partners have the majority, by the people's will
:07:25. > :07:30.and in parliament, they are obliged to govern. If not, you don't have a
:07:30. > :07:38.democracy, you say whoever has 17% and wants to stop anything in
:07:38. > :07:43.governing Greece can do it. This can't be logical democracy. Let as
:07:43. > :07:49.be cheer what that means t means taking on the trade unions, who
:07:49. > :07:53.have prevented privatisation, and stopping the central problems in
:07:54. > :08:00.Athens, are you prepared to do that? If we want to succeed we have
:08:00. > :08:04.to. Many in the German political class want Greece out of the euro,
:08:04. > :08:10.what will you say on Monday to prevent that happening, to the
:08:10. > :08:15.Germans? I will say the Greeks have voted. That it is an incredible
:08:15. > :08:20.decision. Because the people are really, really suffering in Greece
:08:20. > :08:30.today. They made the decision, and now, we
:08:30. > :08:33.
:08:33. > :08:36.are going to do our homework, but you must also stop making life
:08:36. > :08:40.impossible with all these different declarations every day. I will be
:08:40. > :08:45.very clear about it. For David Cameron, and the other euro leaders
:08:45. > :08:48.trying to handle the Greek crisis the options are clear but limited.
:08:48. > :08:52.A big Central Bank liquidity operation is expected, if the
:08:52. > :08:56.election sparks a market meltdown. Foreign leaders are pushing Germany
:08:56. > :09:00.for a clear signal, that it wants Greece within the euro, after a
:09:00. > :09:04.week in which it is giving signals to the contrary, and the in coming
:09:04. > :09:09.Greek Government needs a quick answer to its demands for changes
:09:09. > :09:15.to the austerity package. Again, Germany's rep on the ECB saying
:09:15. > :09:19.today, there could be no changes. New Democracy wants to renegotiate
:09:19. > :09:23.the bail out. Many of its core supporters want
:09:23. > :09:28.tax cuts, offset by cuts in public spending. But since the Spanish
:09:28. > :09:32.crisis began, the leverage of any in coming Greek Government is
:09:32. > :09:37.limited. I don't think Greece has that much of bargaining power. If
:09:37. > :09:41.we were the only danger to the world economy, then we would have
:09:41. > :09:46.huge bargaining power. Since there is dozens of dangers around, what
:09:46. > :09:53.Europe will do is build up its defence against any danger,
:09:53. > :09:57.including Greece. If we don't work with the Europeans to build
:09:57. > :10:01.defences with them, then we shall be seen as irrelevant, and at best,
:10:01. > :10:05.left out of the picture. It is, frankly, crunch time, not
:10:05. > :10:08.just for the Greek Conservatives, but for centrist politics across
:10:08. > :10:13.Europe. If they fail on Sunday, then there are many, both on the
:10:13. > :10:23.left and right of politics, who would see that as the signal for
:10:23. > :10:24.
:10:24. > :10:28.the end of the Uri project. -- euro project.
:10:28. > :10:35.Antonis Samaras said if they don't make it this time, that will be the
:10:35. > :10:40.end of the euro, it is election rhetoric, but everybody knows it.
:10:40. > :10:45.To explore what impact the result of this election might have on the
:10:45. > :10:51.eurozone, Britain and the world economy, we are joined by George
:10:51. > :10:55.Magnus, Matthew Hancock, and Bettina Schulz.
:10:55. > :11:03.What do you think the British Government really wants out of this
:11:03. > :11:08.election? I think that a governing coalition, it is likely to be that
:11:08. > :11:13.n Greece, that supports memberships of the euro, but supports the bail
:11:13. > :11:17.out, so we can bring an end to the uncertainty. As the package made
:11:17. > :11:20.clear, it will require action outside of Greece, in return.
:11:20. > :11:24.that mean, I know British politicians say they don't want to
:11:24. > :11:28.be involved in party politics, that would mean, then, logically, if it
:11:28. > :11:31.was a Syriza-led coalition, that would be pretty disastrous in the
:11:31. > :11:36.British Government's point of view, whatever they say publicly about
:11:36. > :11:40.it? From my point of view, I think it is very difficult to see how the
:11:40. > :11:44.German public would support an easier and more generous bail out
:11:45. > :11:48.of Greece, if the Greek, the in coming Greek Government said they
:11:49. > :11:52.were not prepared to pay the price. The central dilemma in this, is the
:11:52. > :11:58.Greeks, broadly, want to stay in the euro, the question is, are they
:11:58. > :12:03.willing to pay for it, this weekend. And the German people want the euro
:12:03. > :12:08.to succeed, but many of them don't want to pay for the profligacy of
:12:08. > :12:12.the Greeks. If the Greeks vote decisively to say, yes we're
:12:12. > :12:17.prepared to do what is necessary, and lead to a New Democracy victory,
:12:17. > :12:22.then you can see a path through, with Germany saying that this is a
:12:22. > :12:25.necessary price to save the euro. That would get Angela Merkel off
:12:25. > :12:30.the hook t would be far easier for her to make some concessions to the
:12:30. > :12:33.Greek people, if it was a New Democracy group, and not Syriza?
:12:33. > :12:36.would be better for the German public to accept this especially
:12:36. > :12:39.when you see there are other countries like Ireland and Portugal,
:12:39. > :12:43.they have done their structural reforms and the savings. The
:12:43. > :12:47.population there is also in a very hard situation. But they stick to
:12:47. > :12:49.the deal, and they have fulfilled their obligations. I think the
:12:49. > :12:55.German Government and the German people expect this from Greece as
:12:55. > :12:59.well. I think if you have a constructive Government in Greece,
:12:59. > :13:03.that will support the euro, especially the deal, which was only
:13:03. > :13:08.made in March, we shouldn't forget this, it is a very recent deal.
:13:08. > :13:12.Then I'm very sure the Government will then renegotiate. Don't you
:13:12. > :13:19.think that Merkel may say, may think, actually being where we are,
:13:19. > :13:23.we would love to keep it all together, but if Greece went we
:13:23. > :13:26.wouldn't change that much, drawing a line in the sand with Spain and
:13:26. > :13:29.Italy and other countries? You have to be careful with this, it is a
:13:29. > :13:33.very big unknown. You could say the banks have basically written off
:13:33. > :13:38.the Greek debt, so the financial markets probably would be prepared
:13:38. > :13:41.in that way. But on the other hand, it would bakesically then create a
:13:42. > :13:45.different monetary union. different entitlement. Gordon Brown
:13:45. > :13:49.today was saying this could be a chaotic exit, we have had years to
:13:49. > :13:52.prepare for it, perhaps, but it could be absolutely awful on Monday.
:13:52. > :13:58.Where do you come down on this? don't think it will be awful on
:13:58. > :14:02.Monday. I think, for what it's worth, that the currency markets
:14:02. > :14:06.and capital markets and Greek equities and European stocks this
:14:06. > :14:10.week have actually put in a slightly cheery performance by
:14:10. > :14:14.comparison with recent weeks. Almost to the point where the
:14:14. > :14:19.market is kind of saying, on Monday morning, one way or the other, you
:14:19. > :14:21.know, the Central Banks are going to be there, the Bank of England's
:14:21. > :14:25.obviously with the Chancellor already announcing a major
:14:25. > :14:30.programme last night. �80 billion of soft loans to banks? It is
:14:30. > :14:37.thought that the central reserve is looking at things very, very
:14:37. > :14:41.carefully, and Mario Draghi, at the European Central Bank, said Europe
:14:41. > :14:49.is standing ready to help. In the immediate aftermath of the election,
:14:49. > :14:54.markets are expecting that if the outcome is really-and-a-half, --
:14:54. > :14:59.naff. You mean Syriza, it is what the markets think? In the scheme of
:14:59. > :15:03.things I'm not sure it makes a huge difference. Greece is going to have
:15:03. > :15:07.to default and then they make a big decision to do it in or out of
:15:07. > :15:11.Europe. Is this offering of soft loans to British banks, it is
:15:11. > :15:14.something the Chancellor can do, is it whistling past the graveyard, it
:15:14. > :15:18.doesn't really help, does it? would have needed this six months
:15:18. > :15:22.ago. I'm not sure why it was announced in the way it was
:15:22. > :15:27.announced, when it was announced. It feels a little bit panicky. But
:15:28. > :15:31.it may also be part of pre-emptive measures by the Government. What do
:15:31. > :15:34.you think the Treasury think. Presumably they are really worried,
:15:34. > :15:38.that is one implication of it? There is huge uncertainty about
:15:38. > :15:42.what happens, we have just heard that again in this discussion. No
:15:43. > :15:46.matter what happens in these Greek elections. I think what people want
:15:46. > :15:50.to know is, is the British Government doing everything we can
:15:50. > :15:54.to prepare here for whatever outcome there is. Even though that
:15:54. > :15:56.is limited almost by definition, because we are part of a much
:15:56. > :15:59.bigger jigsaw? We are part of a global economy, and it was
:15:59. > :16:05.interesting to hear Gordon Brown make the argument that the euro
:16:05. > :16:08.zone is damaging the UK economy. The cgs point is, are the British
:16:08. > :16:10.authorities, the Government and the Bank of England -- the crucial
:16:10. > :16:13.point is, are the British authorities and the Government and
:16:14. > :16:19.the Bank of England doing everything they can to prepare. The
:16:19. > :16:23.programme announced last night had a minimum size of �5 billion a
:16:23. > :16:27.month, that will be necessary if everything goes swimmingly on the
:16:27. > :16:31.continent. It didn't have cap to the size f there starts to be bank
:16:31. > :16:41.runs and collapses on the continent, and that could be a consequence of
:16:41. > :16:45.what happens. We need to be ready to depend our country. Do any of
:16:45. > :16:48.you think it ra bit weird, in the middle of a conversation, 400
:16:48. > :16:54.million people, the richest continent on earth, and waiting for
:16:54. > :16:59.a hand of Greek vo voters to vote one way or another, with -- voters
:16:59. > :17:05.to vote one way or another, without it making much difference. It is an
:17:05. > :17:10.important point, Spain, this week, there is a package for the Spanish
:17:10. > :17:18.banks. I have a feeling the markets are looking even more to Spain. We
:17:18. > :17:21.might get one or the other outcome with Greece. We will get some form
:17:21. > :17:24.of a coalition Government, they have to do the negotiations with
:17:24. > :17:30.the troika. In the end Greece needs money, they need to capitalise the
:17:30. > :17:40.banks. They need the money, I think after all this big hype about the
:17:40. > :17:41.
:17:41. > :17:44.elections, they will calm down and will try to do constructive things.
:17:44. > :17:48.Given the prospect that was raised by Gordon Brown about France and
:17:48. > :17:51.Italy and so on. If the problem was just about
:17:51. > :17:56.Greece, with respect to Greece, nobody would really care, because
:17:56. > :18:00.as you say, it is very small, it really is on the periphery of
:18:00. > :18:03.Europe. The trouble s of course, what Greece represents, and has
:18:03. > :18:07.done actually for the last three year, although the mood music has
:18:07. > :18:11.been getting louder and louder. What it represents is a systemic
:18:11. > :18:18.flaw in the way in which the eurozone is trying to work. It
:18:18. > :18:22.doesn't work. I wished it did, but it doesn't. And so, you can put a
:18:22. > :18:26.fire out in Greece, quite easily. And yet, it is not going to make a
:18:26. > :18:30.huge amount of difference. The problem, as was said, we know at
:18:30. > :18:34.the same time there are huge problems in Spain. That really is
:18:34. > :18:38.important, that could threaten bank runs as Matthew points out before.
:18:38. > :18:41.That is the biggest risk for next week is capital flight. That said,
:18:41. > :18:47.some of your colleagues wouldn't actually care that much if Greece
:18:47. > :18:50.went, or even if the eurozone were to shake itself apart? I'm normally
:18:50. > :18:58.the optimist in these sorts of discussions, but I think that the
:18:58. > :19:02.problem is much deeper than just a liquidity measure, and that solved
:19:02. > :19:05.by individual bail outs in individual banks, it is structure
:19:05. > :19:09.within the eurozone. Until they have essentially one economic
:19:09. > :19:13.policy, to cover the area of their currency, we are not getting to the
:19:13. > :19:18.end of these endless bail outs. And there are some who say let the
:19:18. > :19:22.whole thing blow, and we will get through it faster. But I think that
:19:22. > :19:27.misses the vital problematic ingredient, that is this is a debt
:19:28. > :19:32.crisis. If there weren't the great debts built up in banks and amongst
:19:32. > :19:36.Governments, then you could have a revaluation fairly easily. If you
:19:36. > :19:40.are Greek and you have a load of savings, and your neighbour has put
:19:40. > :19:43.them in a German bank, Greece leaves the euro, then you lose the
:19:43. > :19:46.value of your savings, but your neighbour doesn't, and Spaniard
:19:46. > :19:50.also watch that, and they will say, hold on, there is a risk-free
:19:50. > :19:55.option. Thank you very much for cheering us
:19:55. > :19:58.An American journalist friend of mine used to say that all American
:19:58. > :20:01.stories are ultimately about race, but all British stories are
:20:01. > :20:05.ultimately about class. This week we learned just how badly average
:20:05. > :20:08.incomes have been set back by the recession and inflation, we also
:20:08. > :20:12.learned that the Prime Minister, David Cameron, enjoyed country
:20:12. > :20:17.suppers in his constituency, with the former News of the World editor,
:20:17. > :20:21.Rebekah Brooks. Mr Cameron has, of course, been called an "arrogant
:20:21. > :20:25.posh boy", by one of his Conservative happens.
:20:25. > :20:33.Do voters care if you are posh in times of austerity. We go in search
:20:33. > :20:37.of answers. She told me I couldn't go one of
:20:37. > :20:41.the ropes. Old Eatonians, country suppers, charm personified, these
:20:41. > :20:45.are scenes from a West End play, lampooning privilege, they are also
:20:45. > :20:48.words from a text to the Prime Minister. When Brookes's missive to
:20:48. > :20:54.David Cameron was revealed to the Prime Minister's aides, they
:20:54. > :20:58.shuddered at the perfect poshness of the patter.
:20:58. > :21:04.We don't know how he replied, we know he now l now be riled. This is
:21:04. > :21:08.man so shy of vaunting a guilded youth, had he to be cajoled into
:21:08. > :21:13.wearing morning suit to the royal wedding. Exactly at the same time
:21:13. > :21:18.on Thursday that the text message for inviting the Prime Minister to
:21:18. > :21:22.posh nosh, slightly different news came out, it was an analysis of the
:21:22. > :21:25.income distribution across the UK, it had bad and good news. Income
:21:25. > :21:30.inequality is down to its lowest level since 1997 when Tony Blair
:21:30. > :21:34.came to power. The bad news is median income, those in the middle,
:21:34. > :21:40.have also take an hit. They have shrunk by their largest amount in 0
:21:40. > :21:46.years. During the recession of 2008 and 2010, average household incomes
:21:46. > :21:50.held up as inflation fell and tax credits and benefits worked. Since
:21:50. > :21:55.then wages have been striped out by inflation. It will take until about
:21:55. > :21:58.2020 for the incomes of families to reach the levels they were before
:21:58. > :22:02.the recession, this is a decade- long squeeze. We also find that
:22:03. > :22:05.some of the actions of the current Government, while maybe well
:22:05. > :22:09.intentioned, increasing the personal allowance, they have done
:22:09. > :22:13.that by cutting tax credits. We know they have supported families
:22:13. > :22:17.over the last decade, less money going to this middle income to low
:22:17. > :22:20.group, is hurting them now. Dealing with historical trends most western
:22:20. > :22:24.Governments are dealing with, but they are not helping themselves.
:22:24. > :22:28.When, in the recent budget there were attacks on simple pleasures
:22:28. > :22:31.like caravans and pasties, though it has been reversed, damage was
:22:31. > :22:34.done, colourful emblems of a Government not getting it were
:22:34. > :22:37.produce. Now Downing Street has done polling, it shows there are a
:22:37. > :22:40.series of reasons why voters are worried about the Conservatives,
:22:40. > :22:43.number two is about the cost of living, and whether this Government
:22:43. > :22:47.gets it, number one is the Government being out-of-touch.
:22:48. > :22:53.people want is somebody who runs the country well, who runs the
:22:53. > :22:56.economy well, improves their take- home pay, better public services.
:22:56. > :23:00.The leaders don't have to be absolutely in touch with the day-
:23:00. > :23:05.to-day lives of people. But if they see politician who is are failing
:23:05. > :23:09.and who are out-of-touch. That combination can be toxic.
:23:09. > :23:13.The Prime Minister used to poll substantially ahead of his party,
:23:13. > :23:17.since the budget, around the first week of this graph, he has sufd and
:23:17. > :23:21.not yet recovered. -- suffered, and not yet recovered. Downing Street
:23:21. > :23:24.know they have a problem, that is why recently the Prime Minister's
:23:24. > :23:27.private secretary wrote to all cabinet ministers asking for policy
:23:27. > :23:31.to show they get there is a cost of living squeeze on. They have two
:23:31. > :23:35.problems in how they deal with, the first is money, for instance, do
:23:35. > :23:39.you go ahead with the planned 3p increase in fuel duty, due in
:23:39. > :23:43.August. If you don't, it costs a huge A money. The other is one of
:23:43. > :23:48.experience. The cost of living debate is something that we all
:23:48. > :23:51.experience bs, it is a very brave Prime Minister --, it is a very
:23:51. > :23:56.brave Prime Minister who says he will do it and manage it and
:23:56. > :24:00.doesn't deliver. It gives the Government worse head winds than
:24:00. > :24:06.their predesos sors, voters going to the next election will be poorer
:24:06. > :24:12.than at the last. Harold Macmillan, you never had it so good, 1959,
:24:12. > :24:16.Margaret Thatcher on a revive year of tax cuts and economy, 1993, Tony
:24:16. > :24:19.Blair, his second landslide in 2001, four years in Government, rising
:24:19. > :24:26.living standards. David Cameron won't be able to seek relax on that
:24:26. > :24:32.platform. There are global trends at play. Cost of living going up is
:24:32. > :24:35.driven by the cost of oil, food costs are uncriesing, those are
:24:35. > :24:42.difficult challenge -- increasing, those challenges are difficult for
:24:42. > :24:46.the Government to manage. You can be heartless, but not
:24:46. > :24:49.hopeless. That is the pollster McIsm. It may be that the cost of
:24:49. > :24:52.living can't be significantly reduced, electorate may anybody a
:24:52. > :24:57.mood to blame the previous Government F the current lot show
:24:57. > :25:02.they are at least trying, posh, with a lower case "p", might not
:25:02. > :25:04.matter. Owen Jones wrote a book called
:25:04. > :25:09.Chavs: The Demonisation of the Working Class Chavs, and is writing
:25:09. > :25:14.a new book on the British establishment, and our other guest
:25:14. > :25:16.went to state schools in Ghana before completing his degree at
:25:16. > :25:22.Oxford. None of this is secret about David
:25:22. > :25:27.Cameron, he has a house and we know he is well off and part of the
:25:27. > :25:32.Bullingdon club. He was elected by the voters, they don't care?
:25:32. > :25:36.Tories, despite the election being handed to them on a plate, a
:25:36. > :25:39.woefully unpopular Labour Government, they only got 36% of
:25:39. > :25:44.the vote. Boris Johnson got elected again, just as posh as David
:25:44. > :25:48.Cameron, in a city like London, predominantly Labour. There are
:25:48. > :25:52.specific London issues, in that particular election, it was a
:25:52. > :25:55.personality contest. Class doesn't matter? It do you don't have to be
:25:55. > :25:58.a conspiracy therapist to think that the Conservatives are the
:25:58. > :26:01.political arm of the wealthy. One poll in March had two-thirds of the
:26:01. > :26:04.population thinking that the Tories were the party of the rich. The
:26:04. > :26:08.reason the Conservatives could not win the last election, was because
:26:08. > :26:16.they cannot win in working-class areas. In the way they once could
:26:17. > :26:21.in the 1950, under the one-nation politics. No wins in working-class
:26:21. > :26:25.areas? That is completely misguided. Politicians shouldn't be prisoners
:26:25. > :26:28.of their background and background isn't destiny, I don't think I
:26:28. > :26:32.would be on the programme, brought up by a single mother, three of us
:26:32. > :26:36.on her own in Ghana, and then here, having been born here. Voters
:26:36. > :26:40.understand the same thing applies to David Cameron. You know, it is
:26:40. > :26:44.not his background that we should be judging him by, he has had a lot
:26:45. > :26:48.of difficulty in his own personal life.'S Out-of-touch, that is the
:26:48. > :26:53.damaging thing? Does get it? I think there has been a lot in David
:26:53. > :26:57.Cameron's life that shows he gets it. More importantly. Hold on a
:26:57. > :27:01.minute, this is something, you told a story about cycling to work, for
:27:02. > :27:05.example, where we now know he does a lot of horse riding at weekends
:27:05. > :27:09.with friends, country suppers, that is a completely different planet
:27:09. > :27:13.from which most British people live? Whether you are born wealthy
:27:13. > :27:18.or in difficult situations, you can have values that show that you care
:27:18. > :27:21.about people who are less fortunate than yourself, and you want to help
:27:21. > :27:26.them. The bigger issue is competence. And David Cameron's
:27:27. > :27:30.polling did very well when he stood up and vetoed the Fiscal Compact.
:27:30. > :27:38.Just stick on this issue, Ed Miliband, David Miliband, I have a
:27:38. > :27:42.list of them here, Ed Balls, Tommy Cooper, Ruth Kelly, all red PPE at
:27:42. > :27:46.Oxford. They are hardly the people you are write beg in your book,
:27:46. > :27:50.they are not working-class, it is not working-class Tories are a rare
:27:50. > :27:55.speeshee, but working-class politicians are a rare species.
:27:55. > :27:59.There is crisis in this kourpbgs only 7% of us went to a private
:27:59. > :28:02.school, not either of us. A third of MPs did. Less than one in 20 MPs
:28:02. > :28:06.come from any form of unskilled background what sort. Increasingly
:28:06. > :28:11.you have MPs who have never had a job outside the Westminster bubble.
:28:11. > :28:15.But it is more of a problem with the Conservatives, infamously, 22
:28:15. > :28:19.out of 29 members of the cabinet are privately-educated millionaires.
:28:19. > :28:22.It looks like a Government from the 19th century. The key point is this,
:28:22. > :28:26.we shouldn't keep people's backgrounded against them, we are
:28:26. > :28:29.prisoners of our upbringing, we have no control over it. The key
:28:29. > :28:35.test is who does this Government stand up for. This is a Government
:28:35. > :28:39.who slashed the autop tax, and is attacking workers' rights. Let's
:28:39. > :28:43.take the IFS numbers showing inequality has come down. Real
:28:43. > :28:47.wages have also gone backwards? of the biggest reasons for that is
:28:47. > :28:50.that the wealthy are actually not earning as much as they used to.
:28:50. > :28:54.That is not true. What we will see by the end of the parliament, as
:28:54. > :29:01.far as austerity is concerned, the well off are going to bear the
:29:01. > :29:05.biggest brunt of the problems. is utterly farcical, take the
:29:05. > :29:09.Sunday Times rich list, looking at the 1,000 wealthiest people,
:29:09. > :29:13.quarter have donated to the Conservative Party. Their wealth
:29:13. > :29:17.again surged this year, last year their wealth went up by a fifth,
:29:17. > :29:21.the year before by 0%, the biggest. It is boom time for the top,
:29:21. > :29:24.economic crisis for the rest. you see this as the core of the
:29:24. > :29:27.issue for the next election, the question of whether we are all in
:29:27. > :29:31.this together, or we are dividing Britain along these lines? You have
:29:31. > :29:36.put your finger on it, out-of-touch is a lazy way of criticising
:29:36. > :29:40.someone you disagree with, who you think is better off than you.
:29:40. > :29:44.an issue for the next election? is not, Labour should be very
:29:44. > :29:47.careful. Out-of-touch is being used as a substitute for having a
:29:47. > :29:51.credible alternative plan. I think the next election will be about who
:29:51. > :29:54.has got the right plans to get Britain out of this mess and build
:29:54. > :29:57.a brighter future. You are absolutely right, there has to be a
:29:57. > :30:01.coherent alternative, it is lacking, from Labour at the moment. But what
:30:01. > :30:03.you have to face is this, it is a long-term trend with the
:30:03. > :30:11.Conservatives, every time the Conservatives have won a general
:30:11. > :30:14.election, since 1955, has been a -- the fact is the reason Tories will
:30:14. > :30:17.not win is because they are not able to win working-class voters
:30:17. > :30:20.like they once did. We will find it out at the next election, thank you
:30:20. > :30:24.very much. In a moment the review show and
:30:24. > :30:30.matter that is in Glasgow. On tonight's show we will be
:30:30. > :30:35.delivering our verdict on Rock of Ages, that is the movie musical for
:30:35. > :30:39.which Tom Cruise learned to sing. True Love, a drama series on BBC
:30:40. > :30:44.One where David Tennant and Billie Piper improvise their lines. The
:30:44. > :30:48.new novel, Park Lane, and an exhibition of Invisible Art, we
:30:48. > :30:52.will have live music from Amy McDonald, do watch.
:30:52. > :30:58.That is all from Newsnight, we will have more from Paul in Greece on
:30:58. > :31:06.Monday. We wanted to leave you with a Streisand effect, when you try to
:31:06. > :31:15.ban an image, you make sure more people see it. That didn't stop
:31:15. > :31:22.Buute council from banning matter that Pane from photographic --
:31:22. > :31:29.photographicing her school dinners and commenting. Many, many hits