:00:12. > :00:18.Greece votes to stay in the euro, and suffer.
:00:18. > :00:21.But does Europe even want them any more?
:00:21. > :00:25.The Conservative New Democracy leader wins the election, and is
:00:25. > :00:29.tonight, trying to form a coalition. But Angela Merkel hasn't helped the
:00:29. > :00:33.mood here. She says Europe will not change the punishing bail out terms
:00:33. > :00:37.for Greece. TRANSLATION: We agreed on a Greece
:00:37. > :00:40.programme, and the framework needs to be adhered to, this means we
:00:40. > :00:43.must be sure that Greece sticks to its commitments.
:00:43. > :00:46.I will be speaking live to one of the architects of the new
:00:46. > :00:51.Government's economic programme, and to a candidate from the
:00:51. > :00:55.defeated far left party, Syriza. Meanwhile, with the Spanish crisis
:00:55. > :00:58.turning to open violence, the value of their bonds crash through the
:00:58. > :01:06.point where borrowing becomes unsustainable.
:01:06. > :01:10.Here we will be talking to the man who negotiated the bond default in
:01:10. > :01:14.March, will he have to do it all again for Spain. Is there anything
:01:14. > :01:16.Governments can do to save us from a decade of economic pain, we will
:01:16. > :01:20.drill into big economic brains. We are at the Egyptian elections
:01:20. > :01:25.too, where it looks like the Muslim Brotherhood will win the president
:01:25. > :01:35.circumstance but the military won't hand over power. We will hear from
:01:35. > :01:36.
:01:36. > :01:38.Cairo and Washington. Good evening from Athens, where the
:01:38. > :01:42.Conservative winners of last night's election, are trying to
:01:42. > :01:46.form a coalition that can keep Greece in the euro. Investors
:01:46. > :01:51.across the world breathed a sigh of relief, that the far left party,
:01:51. > :01:55.Syriza, failed by less than three points, to top the poll.The way was
:01:55. > :02:00.open, it seemed this morning, for a new Government to renegotiate the
:02:00. > :02:04.terms of austerity with Europe, and with the IMF. But, tonight, in
:02:04. > :02:08.Mexico, Chancellor Merkel, said no. Without changes to the bail out
:02:08. > :02:12.terms, it is hard to see where Greece goes next. Meanwhile, with
:02:12. > :02:15.Spain's cost of borrowing moving deeper into the danger zone, the
:02:15. > :02:19.rally on the global stock market looked about as energetic as the
:02:19. > :02:23.tourists do, as they struggle up this thing behind me.
:02:23. > :02:28.Who would want to govern Greece? What would the new Government ask
:02:28. > :02:32.from Brussels and the IMF? Will Spain wreck the whole thing any
:02:32. > :02:35.way? I will explore these questions in a moment, with representatives
:02:35. > :02:40.of the two main parties, and a financial journalist who thinks she
:02:40. > :02:47.knows what is on the table. First, here is what has happened in the
:02:47. > :02:52.last 24 tumultuous hours. Last night Greece came within three
:02:52. > :02:57.percentage points of a far left Government. The nearly-man, Alexis
:02:57. > :03:05.Tsipras, mobbed as he arrived to concede defeat. REPORTER: Is the
:03:05. > :03:11.fight against austerity over now? Is the fight over?
:03:11. > :03:19.The markets open, the polls close, what the markets wanted was
:03:19. > :03:23.certainty, but they haven't got it. APPLAUSE
:03:23. > :03:29.The only certainty is that Greece remains capable of blowing up the
:03:29. > :03:36.euro, despite last night's result. The Greek system gives the winning
:03:36. > :03:42.party 50 extra MPs, so New Democracy's 30% translates into 129
:03:42. > :03:46.seats. To form a Government tkpwhok needs -- New Democracy needs a
:03:46. > :03:49.coalition with PASOK, the Socialist Party, and to be sure, a small
:03:50. > :03:55.Marxist party called Democratic Left. Syriza, the main far left
:03:55. > :03:59.party got 27%, with 71 seats it becomes the opposition. Together
:03:59. > :04:06.with 18 fascist, 12 hardline communists, and 20 Conservatives
:04:06. > :04:09.who opposed the bail out. But Athens awoke today to the same
:04:09. > :04:17.problems that have sapped the will of politicians for two years. The
:04:17. > :04:23.austerity demanded by the IMF and EU has pushed the economy into a
:04:23. > :04:30.death spiral. The current bail out deal means 1 billion worth of cuts
:04:30. > :04:34.to come. -- 11 billion worth of cuts to come. It all depends on the
:04:34. > :04:39.11 billion worth of cuts in the next month, if the Europeans and
:04:39. > :04:42.the IMF will insist on that, we will see a backlash on that. If
:04:42. > :04:45.they cut Greece some slack and spread it out over the next few
:04:46. > :04:50.years, and are able to balance it with other measure, maybe tax cuts
:04:50. > :04:53.and maybe more money for growth, then perhaps you can see a quieter
:04:53. > :04:57.summer. Cutting Greece some slack sums up
:04:57. > :05:01.the problem, Mr Samaras wants to form a coalition around an
:05:02. > :05:06.alternative strategy to balance the country's books. With tax cuts
:05:06. > :05:08.instead of tax rise, paid for by much more rapid reductions in
:05:08. > :05:14.public spending, and rapid privatisation. What they need from
:05:14. > :05:18.Brussels is time and money.What Greece needs from the core of
:05:18. > :05:21.Europe is not only further help in terms of debt forgiveness, but more
:05:21. > :05:26.particularly a demand boost. The problem in Greece and the periphery
:05:26. > :05:30.of Europe is lack of demand. Europe needs to provide assistance,
:05:30. > :05:32.speeding up the release of European Union structural funds, also
:05:32. > :05:35.providing help, backed by the European Investment Bank. Trying to
:05:35. > :05:39.get some demand into the Greek economy. But the reality of the
:05:39. > :05:44.situation is, whatever the core of Europe provides in the near term,
:05:44. > :05:50.is unlikely, in my view, to get Greece out of a recession. At the
:05:50. > :05:54.G20 Summit in mexko, the leaders arrived, knowing the election
:05:54. > :05:59.result in Greece had bought time, but little else. The German
:05:59. > :06:04.Chancellor put paid to any talk of an easier time for Greece.
:06:05. > :06:08.TRANSLATION: We will discuss with Greece if they can participate in
:06:08. > :06:11.growth impetuouss within the growth programme designed for the entire
:06:11. > :06:16.European Union, but it changes nothing of the decisions of the
:06:16. > :06:22.memorandum of understanding, what we voted on in the German Bundestag.
:06:22. > :06:29.Spain's headline cost borrowing surged to 7.29% this year, the
:06:29. > :06:34.highest since joining the euro. Experts point to 5.5% for borrowing
:06:34. > :06:38.over two years, that is the equivalent of acute chest pain.
:06:38. > :06:42.have seen spiralling downward political and economic problems,
:06:42. > :06:46.feeding debt and banking problems. That self-feeding downward spiral
:06:46. > :06:51.needs to be stopped. Not just through help to the banks, but the
:06:51. > :06:56.core of Europe needs to provide a marshall type plan, providing a
:06:56. > :06:59.European fiscal boost, that helps, not only Spain, but the periphery
:06:59. > :07:02.of Europe. Despite the problems in yuerpbgs the key issue is Germany
:07:02. > :07:07.and the European Central Bank have it within their remit to give a
:07:07. > :07:12.boost to the periphery of Europe, that pulls us back from the brink.
:07:12. > :07:16.On the streets of Athens, the problems of poverty, crime and
:07:16. > :07:19.dislocation, are all too clear. One in five adults is unemployed. There
:07:19. > :07:24.is a yearning for order and stability that the in coming
:07:24. > :07:28.Government has to meet. Soon the global media circus will
:07:28. > :07:33.leave Greece, but another narrative, hidden for now, will remain. It is
:07:33. > :07:37.a narrative of street fights, between fascists and migrants.
:07:37. > :07:41.Between anarchists and riot cops. It is worth rembering that the
:07:41. > :07:45.political class, both here in Athens, and at the G20, has no
:07:45. > :07:49.direct experience of this whatsoever.
:07:49. > :07:53.More than one third of voters here voted for the Marxist left, more
:07:53. > :08:01.than half voted for parties opposed to what will happen next.
:08:01. > :08:07.So discontent continues. So does the crisis.
:08:07. > :08:11.Joining me here, beneath the Acropolis, are the New Democracy MP,
:08:11. > :08:17.and one of the architects of his economic policy. Aristides Baltas,
:08:17. > :08:23.a candidate for the far left Syriza Party, and Professor of fill loss
:08:23. > :08:30.pee of the national technical unit in -- philosophy in the national
:08:30. > :08:33.technical unit. And a journalist who has covered the crisis from the
:08:33. > :08:38.start. You heard Angela Merkel, it is game
:08:38. > :08:42.over, she says there is no change to the memorandum of understanding,
:08:42. > :08:45.what can a New Democracy-led Government now do? It is a given
:08:45. > :08:49.that everyone in Europe wants the Greek programme to succeed. In
:08:49. > :08:53.order for the Greek programme to succeed, we must restart the
:08:53. > :08:57.economy after five consecutive years of recession, we need to
:08:57. > :09:00.enhance the growth programme. We need to increase the safety net of
:09:00. > :09:04.the society, when one out of four Greeks live below the line of
:09:04. > :09:08.poverty. We have had a number of comments from a number of European
:09:08. > :09:11.leaders, we are confident there is a basis for discussion. It seems
:09:11. > :09:16.Merkel has stopped the whole thing tonight. You have heard from a
:09:16. > :09:20.number of European leaders, when she says categorically we may give
:09:20. > :09:23.you structural funds, but knot no changing to the timing and the
:09:23. > :09:27.amounts, what can you do? There is sufficient basis for discussion, we
:09:27. > :09:29.will approach the negotiation, taking as a given that everyone in
:09:29. > :09:33.Europe wants the programme to succeed. How much time have you got,
:09:33. > :09:36.you must know now you are on the brink of power, how much money is
:09:36. > :09:40.left in the coffers here in Athenss? We have enough liquidity
:09:40. > :09:43.for 30 days. We expect the troika to come after the new Government
:09:43. > :09:49.has been formed, to discuss for the next tranche. As part of the next
:09:49. > :09:52.tranche, it was already in the praj to finalise a lot ofish --
:09:52. > :09:55.programme to finalise a lot of issues in the programme. There is a
:09:55. > :09:59.lot of issues to be resolved, without changing the programme,
:09:59. > :10:04.still open for discussion. The base, I need people to remember, without
:10:04. > :10:07.the economy reconversation, without the economy restarting, 2013 it is
:10:07. > :10:10.expected to be the sixth consecutive year of recession, no
:10:10. > :10:14.fiscal programme could ever meet these objectives. You lost,
:10:15. > :10:21.commiserations, I should have said congratulations to you, Mr
:10:21. > :10:26.Mitarakis. You lost, more than a million people vote Ford you, quite
:10:26. > :10:30.unexpectedly, -- for you, quite unexpectedly, even for yourselves.
:10:30. > :10:33.What can you offer them, if you are sitting outside Government,
:10:33. > :10:36.steadfastly refusing to take part. Surely the dented shield is better
:10:37. > :10:44.than nothing for the people you represent? This is not the question,
:10:44. > :10:47.I think. The question is we cannot participate in a Government with
:10:47. > :10:52.the disagreements so much. The whole strategy up to the elections
:10:52. > :10:59.and now is to try to preserve as much as possible the kind of
:10:59. > :11:03.confidence we have been winning over these months. As you said
:11:03. > :11:10.before about Miss Merkel is, I think, a proof, that the kind of
:11:10. > :11:14.strategy we are pursuing, in a sense, was better than the New
:11:14. > :11:17.Democracy strategy. What I mean is, it was not only Merkel, but all
:11:17. > :11:22.kinds of political leaders in the European Union, said various things
:11:22. > :11:30.about the Greek problem. In our case, what we said is we start from
:11:30. > :11:35.a point of this slippery slope we have been following up until now.
:11:35. > :11:45.We stop the mem da programme at that point and start negotiate d
:11:45. > :11:53.
:11:53. > :11:58.memrand dumb programme at that point and start negotiating then.
:11:58. > :12:01.You broke the story for your paper, what do you think is going on?
:12:01. > :12:05.There is grounds for the new Government to make proposals. The
:12:05. > :12:08.people who voted for Syriza in Greece are in favour of radically
:12:08. > :12:12.changing that programme. So the new Government will enjoy a lot of
:12:12. > :12:16.support in doing that. I know that they have done their calculation,
:12:16. > :12:21.and there has been continuity for the last couple of years in this
:12:21. > :12:26.Government. They, I understand, will be asking for a two-year
:12:26. > :12:31.extension of the bail out programme. Theoretically it ends in 2014, from
:12:31. > :12:35.the eurozone side, they would like it to go to 2016. That costs money,
:12:35. > :12:40.doesn't it? Unfortunately, it does. Officials calculate it will cost
:12:40. > :12:43.around, if not more than 16 billion euros, for those two years. When
:12:43. > :12:48.you extend the programme, and postpone meeting fiscal targets and
:12:48. > :12:51.cuts, that is money, that needs to be covered. 16 billion, Mr
:12:51. > :12:55.Mitarakis, does that sound right to you, you postpone the terms of the
:12:55. > :13:01.bail out for two years s that on the table right now? The critical
:13:01. > :13:09.issue is how fast can we restart the economy, how fast can we become
:13:09. > :13:13.for business friendly. Fiscal figures are driven by GDP, and it
:13:13. > :13:17.is deeper than ever imagined. Lagarde said we have to review
:13:17. > :13:22.right now, and we have to look at the changes. The view from you now
:13:22. > :13:26.is it will cost Europe and the IMF money to dig you out of the hole?
:13:26. > :13:30.Our objective is not more money but that it works, that is the starting
:13:30. > :13:35.point. We think there is a lot of structural reform ones the table
:13:36. > :13:38.that needs to happen, we need more efforts in privatisation, and in
:13:38. > :13:41.using the funds already committed to Greece. We need to change on the
:13:41. > :13:46.ground the business environment. We are not attracting any investment
:13:46. > :13:50.at this stage. This is all economic speak, isn't it. We all know,
:13:50. > :13:55.because we frequent those streets out there, that they are very
:13:55. > :13:58.gritty streets right now. There is anger and violence. I want to start
:13:58. > :14:02.with you Professor Baltas, your party has been a party of the
:14:02. > :14:05.street and the election, is it time now that you basically, are you
:14:05. > :14:08.going to change that. Because with fascists running around the streets,
:14:09. > :14:15.and anarchists, it is playing with fire, isn't it? That is a very big
:14:15. > :14:20.problem. I think it is much more complicated than it has been taken
:14:20. > :14:25.to be. It is not just the political position of Nazi ideology, it is
:14:25. > :14:32.roots and values of the Greek population, it is related to misery
:14:32. > :14:39.and frustration. It is related to sub cultures developing. We need a
:14:39. > :14:43.more general kind of policy to attack the problem. I think that in
:14:43. > :14:48.all kinds of ways, we are more effective addressing these problems
:14:48. > :14:53.than, let as say, the Conservative Government, which can
:14:53. > :14:58.sometimes...Can It be contained? think it can be. Do you think so Mr
:14:58. > :15:02.Mitarakis? In order for it to be contained, you cannot have 50 pest
:15:02. > :15:05.youth unemployment, you need jobs and ho. In order to give people
:15:05. > :15:09.hope you need the private economy running. That is the difference
:15:09. > :15:10.with Syriza, we believe in investment, privatisation,
:15:10. > :15:14.business-friendly country. should we judge your Government f
:15:14. > :15:18.you form a Government this week, what is the target for youth
:15:18. > :15:23.unemployment, the target for adult unemployment, if we come back in a
:15:23. > :15:28.year's time? 12 months from today we would hope youth unemployment to
:15:28. > :15:31.have created 150,000 jobs, 10% of the population, that is the
:15:31. > :15:35.objective, that is what we will strive for. Can you tell us what
:15:35. > :15:39.you think, objectively, will happen, will they make it to a Government
:15:39. > :15:46.they will make it to Government this week, I think that is very
:15:46. > :15:51.clear. I think it will happen soon. I think we will have a new Finance
:15:51. > :15:59.Minister from this country speaking to his counciller parts in
:15:59. > :16:04.Luxembourg on Thursday, will they does. Is it going to be you, the
:16:04. > :16:09.have no idea who Mr Samaras will appoint, it is not a matter of
:16:09. > :16:16.faces but policies. Thanks to my guests in Athens, and good night,
:16:16. > :16:21.over to Kirsty in London. Despite the desperate firefighting
:16:21. > :16:26.for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the European bail out of Spain's
:16:26. > :16:28.banks, European Summits and the European election going the way
:16:28. > :16:37.European leaders wanted, the crisis is unrelented. Spanish borrowing
:16:37. > :16:47.prices rose sky shy and markets tumbled. Merkel -- sky high, and
:16:47. > :16:52.
:16:52. > :16:58.centre of the attention the world possibility of a two-year extension
:16:58. > :17:02.set with the Spanish bail out. They got their banking bail out with
:17:02. > :17:08.fewer strings attached, and a lot of the people in Greece will expect
:17:08. > :17:12.some sort of concessions. We heard it already there, from the European
:17:12. > :17:16.body politic, for delivering a pro- bail out victory. In Ireland they
:17:16. > :17:21.have been the good boys. Do you think Angela Merkel is serious, or
:17:21. > :17:24.this is an opening gambit? years ago she said no bail outs
:17:24. > :17:27.full stop, she said the European Financial Stability Facility was
:17:27. > :17:31.temporary, now permanent. She has said a lot that has changed in the
:17:32. > :17:35.last few years. The Irish are hoping to cash into the concessions.
:17:35. > :17:39.The Irish media reporting that there would be an extension of
:17:39. > :17:42.their bond repayment, 15 to 30 years. That would have a positive
:17:42. > :17:46.impact on the Irish day-to-day spending, they might be able to get
:17:46. > :17:50.back to the markets. Which sets a good precedent for Portugal, they
:17:50. > :17:54.can continue to be the good poster boy in all the crisis. With all
:17:54. > :17:59.this going about, why is the intensity about the European crisis,
:17:59. > :18:03.there is no let up? It is all about the markets. The new term is "sub
:18:03. > :18:07.bored nation", the markets are very worried that the money they have
:18:07. > :18:13.lent to countries like Spain will be lower down the pecking order, as
:18:13. > :18:23.pardon of the sub bored nation. If the banks have lent money to Spain,
:18:23. > :18:27.they would be lower down the pecking order, They get paid first,
:18:27. > :18:32.the ECB, then the other banks, they are less likely to lend to Spain
:18:32. > :18:35.then. If they do lend it will be on a higher interest rate. That is
:18:35. > :18:40.what we saw today. Trying to explain what is happening
:18:40. > :18:43.in the bond markets is the outgoing head of the Institute of
:18:44. > :18:48.International Finance, a global body that represents banks and
:18:48. > :18:55.other financial institutions, which negotiates with Governments over
:18:55. > :18:59.default, including the Greek default earlier this year. You
:18:59. > :19:03.applaud the banking bail out of the Greeks last week, the Greeks appear
:19:03. > :19:07.to have done the right thing by the European leaders, why is the
:19:08. > :19:11.European crisis no better? I do think that the developments in
:19:11. > :19:15.Greece over the weekend were clearly a positive development for
:19:15. > :19:23.Greece, Europe and the global economy. But I think we are at a
:19:23. > :19:27.stage now where solving the euro zone seven debt crisis will require
:19:27. > :19:32.more than individual actions of countries like Germany, Greece,
:19:32. > :19:38.Spain, Italy, it will require concerted effort by the entire
:19:39. > :19:42.European leadership to frame a solution, and sub lement it with
:19:42. > :19:47.other issues. We will continue to swim upstream and not make the
:19:47. > :19:53.progress needed to calm market anxieties, if not. Let's look at
:19:53. > :19:58.the Spanish bond problem, 7.25%, you can get an insecured loan less
:19:58. > :20:03.than that here. Who will invest in Spain? Markets are deeply troubled
:20:03. > :20:09.at the moment, if one steps back from the current market anxiety,
:20:09. > :20:13.arguably some what overdone, one sees that Spain has a much more
:20:13. > :20:18.manageable debt to GDP ratio than Greece. It is well under where
:20:18. > :20:24.Greece is, Greece is 150%. Spain has a serious but localised problem
:20:24. > :20:28.in the savings banks, the core banks of Spain remain strong. It
:20:28. > :20:33.underscores the importance of eurozone action. We need a clearly
:20:33. > :20:37.game plan towards fiscal union, well articulated, with time lines.
:20:38. > :20:42.We need a clear game plan towards banking union, well articulated,
:20:42. > :20:46.with a time frame. We need more flexibility in the instruments that
:20:46. > :20:50.Europe has. We need to inject funds directly into the banks, rather
:20:50. > :20:54.than weaving them through sovereign buckets, which elevate budget
:20:54. > :21:00.ratios. That is the model in America, you have the fiscal union,
:21:00. > :21:04.but, essentially it means that Germany will have to pay up. They
:21:04. > :21:11.will have to be the one that pays up for the southern countries, yes?
:21:11. > :21:13.Germany, I think, has benefited tremenduously from the eurozone
:21:13. > :21:18.arrangements. Germany has impressively low unemployment right
:21:18. > :21:23.now, Germany has a remarkably strong export record. Part that
:21:23. > :21:29.have is due to the discipline in Germany labour wage and fiscal
:21:29. > :21:32.policies over recent years, part of it is due to the creation of the
:21:32. > :21:36.euro. They have benefited substantially and will continue to
:21:36. > :21:39.as long as they invest in the future of Europe. Germany and other
:21:39. > :21:44.countries will have to lean forward and provided a decisional support
:21:44. > :21:47.to countries like Spain, Italy and Greece. Aren't they going to
:21:47. > :21:52.squeeze them hard. Isn't it if that is the case Germany will demand a
:21:52. > :21:56.lot more control? Well, I think Germany already has perhaps
:21:56. > :22:02.arguably a bit too much influence. The fact of the matter is, that
:22:02. > :22:04.these programmes need to be broadly designed when Chancellor Merkel
:22:05. > :22:09.says, and I understand the necessity of her statement, when
:22:09. > :22:14.she says Greece needs to follow the framework of the programme, I read
:22:14. > :22:18.between the lines some flexibility between the words "framework" and
:22:18. > :22:22.the precise details. It is absolutely essential that Europe
:22:22. > :22:26.recognise that the Greek economy has contracted and is contracting,
:22:26. > :22:31.at a much more severe pace than anticipated when the programme was
:22:31. > :22:37.designed. It is only common sense to extend the near term budget
:22:37. > :22:41.targets some what supplement by additional funding. It need not be
:22:41. > :22:45.large amounts, we are talking about 20 billion euros. You are talking
:22:45. > :22:49.about spend, in order to create growth you must spend? That is part
:22:49. > :22:52.of it, in order to create growth it is not just about spending, but
:22:52. > :22:57.creating an atmosphere of confidence that investors can come
:22:57. > :23:01.back in. It is about capitalising, and recapitalising the bank. You
:23:01. > :23:04.can get credit flowing. It is about European, Greek and global
:23:04. > :23:08.investors having confidence again, not just in Greece, but the
:23:08. > :23:12.eurozone as a whole. It is not just about spending money in Greece, it
:23:12. > :23:15.is about investors feeling confident, that they see a long-
:23:15. > :23:19.term game plan. What about your members in the banks that you
:23:19. > :23:23.represent, they took a bath in Greece, are they going to have to
:23:23. > :23:27.take a bath again with subordination? No, but
:23:27. > :23:30.subordination is a concern. Certainly the investors, the banks,
:23:30. > :23:37.the insurance firms, the pension funds, took a very deep bath in the
:23:38. > :23:42.case of Greece. But Greece had a debt-to-GDP problem, that was miles
:23:42. > :23:47.beyond the debt-to-GDP problem for any other country in Europe. You
:23:47. > :23:49.raise a valid point that the previous commentator on
:23:49. > :23:56.subordination, I think European officials would be wise to step
:23:56. > :23:58.back and stop insisting on primary status of hair claims against the
:23:58. > :24:02.sovereign relative to private sector claims. Will this only
:24:02. > :24:06.undermine the goal of rebuilding confidence among private investors.
:24:06. > :24:10.Ultimately it is only the private investors who will alleviate the
:24:10. > :24:14.burden off the back of the German, Dutch and other European tax-payers.
:24:14. > :24:17.In order to encourage them to come back in, and stay in the game of
:24:17. > :24:23.funding sovereign debt, this issue of subordination has to be
:24:23. > :24:31.addressed. To ask why this is the crisis that
:24:31. > :24:37.won't die, we have, in Chicago, President Obama's economic adviser
:24:37. > :24:41.until last summer, and the editor for the Financial Times, and the
:24:41. > :24:45.chief economist at Germany's oldest private bank.
:24:45. > :24:50.We will talk about subordination later. From America's point of view,
:24:51. > :24:56.tell me how does it look from America, you advised President
:24:56. > :25:00.Obama on policy, what looks scariest about Europe to you?
:25:01. > :25:04.the US, clearly the scariest thing would be if there were some kind of
:25:04. > :25:08.financial meltdown and the contagion leaped across the
:25:09. > :25:16.Atlantic into the financial markets in the US. Easily that could happen,
:25:16. > :25:19.that makes everybody on edge. The second-most scary thing would be if
:25:19. > :25:23.the continued stumbling and shrinking of the European economy
:25:23. > :25:27.means that the world economic growth is just not strong enough to
:25:27. > :25:33.get anybody feeling healthy. That would also be a concern, but both
:25:33. > :25:39.of those are pretty serious matters. The European economy stumbling,
:25:39. > :25:43.sinking, we have got politicians in the G20, we have been here so many
:25:43. > :25:46.times before. Politicians don't seem to be able to make a
:25:46. > :25:51.difference, is the only difference to be made the markets? No, I think
:25:51. > :25:56.there are ideas floating around. Some constructive ideas about
:25:56. > :26:01.pooling the debt overall, talk about banking union where you would,
:26:01. > :26:05.in a sense, water down national regulation, have EU-wide
:26:05. > :26:08.supervision. You would also inject money directly into the banks to
:26:08. > :26:12.resolve this serious problem. She is are huge steps, you thought
:26:12. > :26:16.Maastricht was big, this is even bigger. It is interesting you say
:26:16. > :26:19.that, presumably, in order for that banking union to take place, there
:26:19. > :26:23.would have to be more regulation, and the regulation would probably
:26:23. > :26:27.be designed by Germany? It would be designed at European level. The
:26:27. > :26:35.French, for example, President Holiday, recently elected, this is
:26:35. > :26:40.his big new idea. The problem is there is a lot of big ideas at the
:26:41. > :26:43.same time. No clear game plan, just over 20 years ago we had the great
:26:43. > :26:50.upheaval in Europe with the collapse of communism. The
:26:50. > :26:55.Americans came in with a five-point plan for German unification, all
:26:55. > :27:00.done, bang. Pooling the debt, a good idea? Not at the moment. There
:27:00. > :27:04.will be some pooling of debt over time. But, if we pool the debt up
:27:04. > :27:07.front, those who are the paymasters lose control. There is always a
:27:07. > :27:14.give and take. There is some pooling of debt, and some
:27:14. > :27:18.establishment of rules to prevent future debt crises. It is a process,
:27:18. > :27:22.there is no silver bullet to solve it once and for all, but it is a
:27:22. > :27:26.process that will move on. You want other people to bleed before
:27:26. > :27:31.Germany pays the debt? No, it is not other people bleeding, but it
:27:31. > :27:36.is other people accepting fiscal rules, which, in the future, is
:27:36. > :27:40.fiscal debts in the future need to be smaller. That is the problem,
:27:40. > :27:44.Germany approaches is step by step, but the markets have always been
:27:44. > :27:47.ahead of the politicians. What do you think of the idea that there
:27:47. > :27:57.will be a pooling of the debt and a banking union in Europe S that what
:27:57. > :27:58.
:27:58. > :28:01.you would like to see? I understand exactly why the Germans don't want
:28:01. > :28:07.to get on a permanent subsidy type of relationship in the European
:28:07. > :28:10.Union. The only problem is, there is an old American movie, The
:28:10. > :28:14.Godfather, and the two families are fighting, and they say, look this
:28:14. > :28:18.is the business we have chosen, if you are trying to have a monetary
:28:18. > :28:20.union in which there isn't a fiscal union, we know a lot about how you
:28:20. > :28:24.hold together very different economies, and the problem is, it
:28:24. > :28:30.is not cheap. Either they are going to be permanent subsidies, or there
:28:30. > :28:34.will be a very extended decade-long austerity crisis, in which they try
:28:34. > :28:38.to grind down the wages, or else there is going to be inflation,
:28:38. > :28:43.those are our only choices. This is the missing ingredient, growth.
:28:43. > :28:49.Where is the growth going to come from? Right now Greece, with its
:28:49. > :28:54.austerity package, has lost, in effect, 30% of its output, GDP.
:28:54. > :28:57.That is an incredible adjustment, and you are seeing the results, on
:28:58. > :29:03.the streets. Violence, a society collapsing. What you heard from
:29:03. > :29:06.that Greek newspaper editor is that if there isn't a slacking off, if
:29:06. > :29:10.there isn't extra time for repayment in order to inject some
:29:10. > :29:15.money into the economy, there will be trouble in the streets? That is
:29:15. > :29:18.why there needs to be grand bargain between having fiscal discipline,
:29:18. > :29:22.austerity on the one hand, dealing with the welfare state, pension
:29:22. > :29:27.reform, but at the same time a commitment to growth. That, I would
:29:27. > :29:32.submit, requires Germany to reflait its economy. Which is exactly what
:29:32. > :29:37.Germany is aiming for, the grand bargain, but in politics it is
:29:37. > :29:44.often not possible to strike the grand bargain at one point. It is a
:29:44. > :29:54.process towards that. As to reflating the German economy, they
:29:54. > :29:59.
:29:59. > :30:03.are doing a lot of it. Do you the Germans would be happy to see
:30:03. > :30:06.Greece go and concentrate on Spain? The Germany vision is clear, those
:30:06. > :30:10.who sign up to the rules of the club, and they include those
:30:10. > :30:13.without a big budget deficit, all those countries will be kept in
:30:13. > :30:19.with German help. It is up to the people of Greece to decide, they
:30:19. > :30:24.voted for it. Germany has been benefiting hugely in terms of your
:30:24. > :30:29.exports? It has been benefited by being an open economy versus Europe
:30:29. > :30:33.and the world, it is supporting neighbours in Europe quite a lot,
:30:33. > :30:39.but it asks for a quid pro quo. From where you sit, do you think,
:30:39. > :30:45.as a case of either the euro implodes, or, Germany has to, as it
:30:45. > :30:49.were, pay up, there has to be some grand gesture before the banking
:30:49. > :30:53.union takes place. Germany has to pay up in the short-term?
:30:53. > :30:58.Unfortunately, I think if they haven't gotten to that point, they
:30:58. > :31:01.probably will get to that point quite soon. I think you can see why
:31:01. > :31:06.the Germans are frustrated about the budget deficit issue. But there
:31:06. > :31:09.is a deeper problem, which is that countries are locked in at fixed
:31:09. > :31:14.exchange rates, that are the wrong rates. They are not competitive, so
:31:14. > :31:18.it is going to be really difficult for those countries to grow, or to
:31:18. > :31:21.balance their budgets. If they are not growing, they will not have any
:31:21. > :31:25.improvement in their deficit situation. That was an inherent
:31:25. > :31:29.problem, wasn't it? Right from the outset, yes it was. Let me be clear,
:31:29. > :31:33.I don't want to sound too hard on the Germans here. We need to
:31:33. > :31:39.remember that Germany, under Chancellor Schroder, took some very
:31:39. > :31:42.tough decisions in terms of reforming labour markets and having
:31:42. > :31:46.wage restraint. You can understand why the Germans feel frustrated and
:31:46. > :31:50.why it is so difficult for Chancellor Merkel to sell what will
:31:50. > :31:55.be necessary to save the euro. if you look at the results, first
:31:55. > :32:00.of all, you see, that whenever the crisis came to a head, the Germans
:32:00. > :32:06.did offer more. They just have to see the other side of the bargain
:32:06. > :32:10.before they do it. And as to the German experience, it is definitely
:32:10. > :32:15.reforms pay off. What we are seeing across much of the eurozone
:32:15. > :32:19.periphery, is now the kind of labour market reforms, situation of
:32:19. > :32:28.improving competitiveness, that will likely to turn Spain and Italy
:32:28. > :32:33.into booming economies in a while. How -- How do you deal with the
:32:33. > :32:37.debt mountain, are the Germans prepared to write it down 60% to
:32:37. > :32:41.mutualise it, so these countries have some way of surviving. Would
:32:41. > :32:45.you be prepared for a broad writedown? I don't think there is a
:32:45. > :32:49.need. Spain has less public debt than Germany and Britain. What we
:32:49. > :32:53.need is a firewall against financial market panic, that is the
:32:53. > :32:57.European Central Bank. And fiscal and labour market reforms, which is
:32:57. > :33:07.what Spain is getting. And we need to deal with the banks. The
:33:07. > :33:10.Americans dealt with the banks. In 2009, the Europeans poo pooed it as
:33:10. > :33:15.a marketing idea, and two years on we are still in this place.
:33:15. > :33:18.In modern Egypt, there have always been two significant, often
:33:19. > :33:25.adversarial powers, the military, the backbone of the state, and
:33:25. > :33:31.religion, lately in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood. The two are in
:33:31. > :33:35.the run-off for the presidency. It seems the Brotherhood may have won,
:33:35. > :33:42.but it is increasingly doubtful if the army is prepared to hand over
:33:42. > :33:46.real power. 18 months ago in Tahrir Square
:33:46. > :33:54.behind me, there was a drama that caught the imagination of the world.
:33:54. > :33:57.The Egyptian revolution. There was a blueprint set out for how power
:33:57. > :34:00.was to be transferred. That involved the ousting of President
:34:00. > :34:04.Mubarak, the holding of parliamentary elections, and the
:34:04. > :34:07.climax of the process, at the weekend, the holding of these
:34:07. > :34:14.presidential elections, in their second round. What became clear,
:34:14. > :34:18.though, as the weekend unfolded, was those two key forces would
:34:18. > :34:24.fight for the destiny of the nation, but the Muslim Brotherhood and the
:34:24. > :34:29.military had very different ideas how this would end. This is Zagazik,
:34:29. > :34:32.a Nile delta town, far from Tahrir Square, where we watched the
:34:32. > :34:36.weekend's voting with all the telling symbolism. The polling
:34:36. > :34:41.station was secured by the army. Knowing an important voter was on
:34:41. > :34:46.his way, the Colonel in charge posted an armed soldier to stand
:34:46. > :34:51.guard over the ballot box. There was outrage. The law says the army
:34:51. > :34:54.shouldn't be inside the actual voting room. But, the soldiers
:34:54. > :34:58.stayed. Rules though, were being bent here
:34:58. > :35:05.by the Muslim Brotherhood too. We're not actually supposed to be
:35:05. > :35:10.in here, we didn't get all the accreditations that Egyptian
:35:10. > :35:13.officialdom demands for filming in a polling station. But a member of
:35:13. > :35:18.the Muslim Brotherhood has wafted us in, and in the process,
:35:18. > :35:21.demonstrated their power. Then the tumult moved outside. Mohammed
:35:21. > :35:26.Morsi was arriving, the presidential candidate from the
:35:26. > :35:31.Brotherhood. It was his turn to define the moment. He joined the
:35:31. > :35:36.queue taking more than an hour to vote.
:35:36. > :35:40.The Brotherhood has waited 84 years to govern Egypt, a few more minutes
:35:40. > :35:44.hardly mattered. Casting his vote at last, Dr Morsi
:35:44. > :35:49.could underline the contrast with his rival, who, elsewhere, swept
:35:50. > :35:55.straight to the front. But if this gesture was meant to
:35:55. > :36:01.sway ordinary Egyptians, one who had been further down the cue,
:36:01. > :36:07.wasn't having it -- queue, wasn't having it. After they destroyed
:36:07. > :36:11.everything, we need a strong man. I said Mr Shafiq is a stronger man.
:36:11. > :36:16.The confrontation between an authoritarian establishment and the
:36:16. > :36:21.Brotherhood, has been sharpened by a court decision, dissolving the
:36:21. > :36:24.parliament, elect just months ago. He asked one of the Brotherhood's
:36:24. > :36:30.unseated MPs, whether they think Egypt's military has any intention
:36:30. > :36:34.of letting them run the country. TRANSLATION: The Military Council
:36:34. > :36:39.has said over and over that they are unbiased towards all the
:36:39. > :36:42.candidates, that is what we hope for.
:36:42. > :36:45.They should fulfil their role in protecting the country, they have
:36:45. > :36:54.announced they will support the candidate who win, I hope that is
:36:54. > :36:57.what they will do. Not far way is Herriya, it is rural
:36:57. > :37:03.Egypt, where people struggle on the bread line. Many familiar lose here
:37:03. > :37:06.are sustained on a few pounds per day. Once underground, the
:37:07. > :37:11.Brotherhood and its charities have been working openly for the past 3
:37:11. > :37:16.years. It helps people with -- 13 years, it helps people with you
:37:16. > :37:19.money and good works, that earned Dr Morsi the support of many.
:37:19. > :37:24.TRANSLATION: We believe Dr Morsi will make a difference. He comes
:37:24. > :37:34.from a village nearby, he understands our problems.
:37:34. > :37:37.
:37:37. > :37:42.TRANSLATION: I voted for Dr Morsi, so he would improve the country.
:37:42. > :37:46.Gotd will give the election to the person who deserves it and the
:37:46. > :37:52.youth will find jobs. A few miles away from the candidate's birth
:37:52. > :37:55.place, support is not solid. The Brotherhood accuses supporters of
:37:55. > :38:00.the rival candidate of rationing water to the farmers in a bid to
:38:00. > :38:08.get their votes. We were finding farmers saying they wouldn't vote
:38:08. > :38:11.at all. TRANSLATION: I have never voted and I never will. If all the
:38:11. > :38:21.candidates want is power, then I say God take them now before the
:38:21. > :38:24.
:38:25. > :38:28.result has come out. Take his soul away. That other precious liquid,
:38:28. > :38:35.petrol, is in short supply here. They don't like foreigners filming
:38:36. > :38:40.this kind of thing. Months of political turmoil have
:38:40. > :38:50.left people tired and edgey, and we seemed to be part of that problem.
:38:50. > :38:51.
:38:51. > :38:56.No, no, no. Many have ceased to believe that
:38:57. > :39:00.politics is the way back to normalty. Turnout was low, under
:39:00. > :39:04.50%. And the Armed Forces seemed to have gambled that their latest
:39:04. > :39:09.steps wouldn't touch off a strong reaction. We met a key former
:39:09. > :39:12.general at the Cairo Yacht Club, a place frequented by the city's
:39:12. > :39:17.elite. Even just before the polls had closed, it was becoming clear
:39:18. > :39:21.that the military intended to draft the new constitution, retaining
:39:21. > :39:26.sweeping powers, if Mohammed Morsi, the Brotherhood man, won the
:39:26. > :39:31.election. Dr Morsi has insulted the army when
:39:31. > :39:39.he mentioned that if he comes as President of the Country, he will
:39:39. > :39:42.make many changes in the army, and fire some generals, and he would
:39:42. > :39:46.shuffle the high ranking officers and all that kind of stuff. What is
:39:46. > :39:49.the right balance of power do you think, between the military and the
:39:50. > :39:57.civilian leadership in this country? They will insist to have
:39:57. > :40:03.two things in the institution, in regard to the army. The first one
:40:03. > :40:10.is the President cannot declare war against any country, unless goes
:40:10. > :40:16.back to the army and consults them first. Number two, is the military
:40:16. > :40:20.budget. Now there is a lot of talk here in Egypt about the issue of
:40:20. > :40:26.the military budget has to be announced clearly, publicly, to
:40:26. > :40:31.everybody. I don't think they like that, I don't like that, personally.
:40:31. > :40:35.As polling was coming to an end. We dropped in the headquarters of
:40:35. > :40:45.Ahmed Shafiq, the former air force General, whose the country's
:40:45. > :40:53.establishment had pinned their hopes on. The contrast with Dr
:40:53. > :40:57.Morsi's team, well to do ladies and others have been among the great
:40:57. > :41:01.supporters. The Egypt I used to know is centuries old and is my
:41:01. > :41:05.Egypt. But for the other candidate I don't know what it's going to be.
:41:06. > :41:10.But it won't be like the Egypt I used to know. But something wasn't
:41:10. > :41:16.right. A report came in that the Shafiq campaign had failed to post
:41:17. > :41:20.observers at many polling stations. It was an embarrassing lapse.
:41:20. > :41:25.The low turnout would mean the winner could hardly claim to have
:41:25. > :41:30.the country behind him. As this process comes to its climax,
:41:30. > :41:34.the striking thing is the degree to which the Egyptian people seem to
:41:34. > :41:41.have lost the enthusiasm that was being expressed little more than a
:41:41. > :41:48.year ago in Tahrir Square. There is widespread apathy, cynicism, and it
:41:48. > :41:52.has taken the shine off this process.
:41:52. > :41:57.After dark, the military issued its new decrees, despite months of
:41:57. > :42:01.insisting it wouldn't wait to hand the ship of state to an elected
:42:01. > :42:10.helmsman, it seized essential Government powers, those of
:42:10. > :42:14.legislation and budget. Captain Hassan has been skippering
:42:14. > :42:21.Nile pleasure boats for 18 years. He had wanted Mr Shafiq to win, and
:42:21. > :42:24.he didn't fancy trading places with the new President.
:42:24. > :42:27.TRANSLATION: I'm the boss of the boat, he's the boss of the country.
:42:27. > :42:37.I'm only responsible for what happens on this boat. He's
:42:37. > :42:37.
:42:37. > :42:47.responsible for the country. This boat offers fine dining,
:42:47. > :42:51.traditional music and belly dancing. The tourist trade has already dived,
:42:51. > :42:58.so most of these customers were Egyptians.
:42:58. > :43:03.But now even they, fearing rising crime, are going out less. So this
:43:03. > :43:13.show struggles on, and Egypt itself continues its national duet,
:43:13. > :43:15.
:43:15. > :43:18.between generals and Islamists. One that is entering a new and more
:43:18. > :43:23.dangerous phase. Just coming to you now, what is the
:43:23. > :43:27.latest what will happen dou, think, tonight? Dr Morsi is pretty clearly
:43:27. > :43:33.the winner. The army said today they will hand over the power of
:43:33. > :43:39.the presidency to him at the end of June. But all of these amendments
:43:39. > :43:44.and restrictions they have put on the constitution and the drafting
:43:44. > :43:49.of the new constitution means he will be a pretty powerless figure.
:43:49. > :43:55.So the Muslim Brotherhood has called a million man march tomorrow,
:43:55. > :43:59.it has said MPs will have a sit-in Tahrir Square until they change the
:43:59. > :44:03.parliament. The stage is set for confrontation between the two for
:44:03. > :44:09.example but the army hoping recent signs of apathy, including low
:44:09. > :44:14.turnouts when the Brotherhood has called protests before, shows that
:44:14. > :44:19.the country hasn't the stomach to back them in the quest for real
:44:19. > :44:21.power. The last thing in Tahrir Square is the army didn't move on
:44:21. > :44:26.the protestors. If the Muslim Brotherhood is calling for a
:44:26. > :44:30.million men on the street, will the army stand back? I think what is
:44:30. > :44:33.most likely to happen is the Brotherhood will have difficulty
:44:33. > :44:36.producing the huge numbers it says it is calling on to the streets.
:44:36. > :44:43.That is the evidence of all the recent demonstrations when they
:44:43. > :44:46.have tried to do that. There will be some sort of arbitrage. Lots of
:44:46. > :44:50.questions are unclear, particularly about the drafting of the new
:44:50. > :44:54.institution, whether MPs might be able to go back to the parliament.
:44:54. > :44:59.I think what will happen is some form of negotiation empowered with
:44:59. > :45:09.mass protests, with counter moves by the army, in which these two
:45:09. > :45:15.forces continue struggling to try to divide power. It could be Dave
:45:16. > :45:23.and hot summer here. We go straight to Cairo to speak to a
:45:23. > :45:27.representative of the Muslim Brotherhood, and to Washington to
:45:27. > :45:32.speak to Philip J Crowley. It looks like you have won, you are asking
:45:32. > :45:38.for a million people out on the street tomorrow, are you expecting
:45:38. > :45:43.a peaceful protest? Unfortunately, not all the facts have been
:45:43. > :45:51.properly portrayed. The call for the million man march tomorrow was
:45:51. > :45:56.done by a different group and the Muslim Brotherhood backed it. This
:45:57. > :45:59.march is in protest for the various declaration, including the
:45:59. > :46:04.constitutional declaration that the army has issued yesterday, as well
:46:04. > :46:08.as the verdicts and different laws issued today by the SKAF council,
:46:08. > :46:12.all of which are unlawful and illegal and have no basis. It looks
:46:12. > :46:15.like your man has won, but the danger is he will have won very
:46:15. > :46:20.little, because if you cannot change the constitution, if you
:46:20. > :46:26.can't change the military budget, if you can't change the security
:46:26. > :46:30.issues, he will have no power? self-appointed, or the Mubarak-
:46:30. > :46:34.appointed SKAF council is issuing all of these, it cannot overturn
:46:34. > :46:38.the voting power of the parliament or the President. This is a
:46:38. > :46:43.people's-elected choice. Both the parliament and the President and an
:46:43. > :46:46.opinion or decree from an appointed council, cannot overturn or be
:46:46. > :46:50.above the will of the people. We standby this and believe parliament
:46:50. > :46:54.is still in session, as well as all of the powers. The point is
:46:54. > :46:58.parliament has been dissolved on a technicality, parliament is not in
:46:58. > :47:01.session? That is not quite true, there was a verdict by the
:47:01. > :47:08.constitutional court for the dissolvement of parliament. This
:47:08. > :47:13.has been acted on by SKAF as if it is a Israelty. The head of the
:47:13. > :47:17.parliament has -- reality. The head of the parliament has announced it
:47:18. > :47:22.on television and all parties have denounced the same accusations and
:47:22. > :47:26.declarations from SKAF, we will take this according to the next
:47:26. > :47:30.chapter of negotiations and discussions with SKAF and what will
:47:30. > :47:34.happen next with it. From where you are sitting, this looks incredibly
:47:34. > :47:39.volatile, what do you think the west should do about this? Well, it
:47:39. > :47:43.is the worst possible outcome, in terms of say the United States
:47:43. > :47:47.having promoted and encouraged Egypt to go through a democratic
:47:47. > :47:52.transition, it appears there will be a transition, but it will not
:47:52. > :47:57.necessarily be democratic. The problem right now is you do
:47:57. > :48:00.have a crisis of governance. Unfortunately you don't necessarily
:48:01. > :48:05.have an institution that can resolve this confrantation. We in
:48:05. > :48:11.the United States, 2 -- confrontation. We in the United
:48:11. > :48:17.States had a case two years ago called Marbury versus Madison, when
:48:17. > :48:24.you have a conflict between the legislature and the party, the
:48:24. > :48:28.court steps in. When you have a nominally dissolved parliament, you
:48:28. > :48:34.don't necessarily have an institution to resolve it. It is a
:48:34. > :48:38.lot of complexties about how Dr Morsi will respond to it and SKAF
:48:38. > :48:44.and what the nature of it will be. The Muslim Brotherhood looks like
:48:44. > :48:53.it has won the election, should President Obama endorse Dr Morsi?
:48:53. > :49:00.Well, we will see to what extent it is judged to be free and fair. From
:49:00. > :49:03.every indication this is a reasonable result. The question is,
:49:03. > :49:06.you have an elected President, what kind of powers will he have? The
:49:06. > :49:13.dilemma for the United States, having a strong relationship with
:49:13. > :49:17.the Egyptian military. Yet up the military basically saying -- yet
:49:18. > :49:22.you have the military basically saying we are above the law and we
:49:23. > :49:26.don't believe in the civilian laws will present a policy problem for
:49:26. > :49:34.the United States. Will you be calling on the support of President
:49:34. > :49:37.Obama and America? Of course we will be calling for support all the
:49:37. > :49:40.Allies of Egypt who have declared their support publicly for the
:49:40. > :49:46.democratic transition of Egypt. What happened in the last couple of
:49:46. > :49:52.days is nothing short of a military coup. We believe that any power
:49:52. > :50:01.standing by the value of demok say wants to uphold it around the --
:50:01. > :50:06.democracy wants to uphold it around the world, should standby us. I
:50:06. > :50:11.would like to also correct your point that this is not a
:50:11. > :50:14.confrontation between the military and religion. It is a conflict
:50:14. > :50:20.between military dictatorship and civilian democracy. We believe the
:50:20. > :50:25.entire international world, that upholds the genuine true value of
:50:25. > :50:30.democracy, should support Egypt and provide a peaceful end to this
:50:30. > :50:40.conflict. That's all from Newsnight tonight.
:50:40. > :50:50.The death of Welsh actor of Brian Hibbard. Here he is in 1963, with
:50:50. > :50:51.
:50:51. > :50:54.ace axe pel la group named after the miners striking.
:50:54. > :50:58.# Looking from a window above # It is like the story of love
:50:58. > :51:04.# Can you hear me # Came back only yesterday
:51:04. > :51:10.# Moving further away # Want you near me
:51:10. > :51:17.# All I needed was the love you gave
:51:17. > :51:27.# All I needed for another day # And all I ever knew
:51:27. > :51:30.
:51:30. > :51:33.A fine spell of weather, although brief, sunshine to look forward
:51:33. > :51:36.through the day. We will start the day with some showers across
:51:36. > :51:41.Scotland. Transferring their way west to east. Most other places
:51:41. > :51:46.will settle into a reasonable afternoon. A bit of fair weather
:51:46. > :51:50.loud inland, the odd isolated shower. Nearly all of us will avoid
:51:50. > :51:54.these. Racing at Ascot will dodge the showers. Light winds, sunny
:51:54. > :51:59.spells, temperatures nudging 20 degrees. That sunshine is strong at
:51:59. > :52:06.this time. If you are heading to the beach it is good across the
:52:06. > :52:09.south west of England and Wales. Some of the best sun on the coast.
:52:09. > :52:12.The odd isolated showers over the high ground. For Northern Ireland a
:52:12. > :52:16.few showers, but not of the intensity which we saw during the
:52:16. > :52:20.course of the day. A good few of us will stay drive. For Scotland most
:52:20. > :52:24.of the showers on the eastern side, the odd sharp one, not ruling out
:52:24. > :52:27.thunder here. Some sunshine inbetween. Further ahead to
:52:28. > :52:32.Wednesday, another fine day for most of us, temperatures just on
:52:32. > :52:38.the rise, up into the high teens, and the low 20s in some places too.
:52:38. > :52:43.One or two spots could reach 22 or 24 degrees. Wednesday the best day