:00:12. > :00:16.That tax rise, the Chancellor told us, was essential to getting the
:00:16. > :00:21.economy back on track, it wasn't, it is not going to happen, not
:00:21. > :00:24.necessary, apparently. The latest Budget Day backpeddling is on fuel
:00:24. > :00:30.duty. Is this because the Government realised it couldn't get
:00:30. > :00:33.away with it, or is it also in a bit of a panic about the figures.
:00:33. > :00:37.Will it be health, education or defence to make up the half a
:00:37. > :00:40.billion hole they just blew in the Government's finances.
:00:40. > :00:43.No doubt the Treasury Minister, Chloe Smith, will be able to
:00:44. > :00:48.enlighten us all. When the Queen visited Northern
:00:48. > :00:52.Ireland on her silver Julilee, At the height of the Troubles, it
:00:52. > :00:57.provoked this kind of thing. Is that generation of Republicans any
:00:57. > :01:01.more pleased to see her now. If you got to meet the Queen, what
:01:01. > :01:06.would you say to her? I wouldn't say anything, I wouldn't waste my
:01:06. > :01:12.breath on her. And this. Hello citizens of the
:01:12. > :01:15.world, we are anonymous. It is not just them, MI5 warns of
:01:15. > :01:20.increasingly sophisticated and frequent attacks from all over
:01:20. > :01:25.cyberspace. Who is behind it? What do they want? And how can we
:01:25. > :01:32.protect ourselves. I'm joined by the 19-year-old who has won the
:01:32. > :01:35.country's biggest cyber security challenge.
:01:35. > :01:38.Our masterly, compassionate and thoughtful Chancellor of the
:01:38. > :01:43.Exchequer has felt the pain of the British people and decided to
:01:43. > :01:48.abandon his plans to raise the tax on fuel this summer, either that or
:01:48. > :01:53.we are looking at the budget omnishambles number six or seven.
:01:53. > :01:57.Last week the fuel rise was essential, this week, unnecessarily.
:01:57. > :02:00.The minister said it would cost �1.5 billion to scrap the rise,
:02:00. > :02:03.today the Treasury said it would cost only half a billion. Either
:02:03. > :02:09.the Government is playing politics with the national economy, or the
:02:09. > :02:14.economy is in such an appallingly chaotic state, it justifies panic
:02:14. > :02:17.reactions like this. Our Economics Editor, Paul Mason, is here.
:02:17. > :02:21.It is a good economy that whether or not this is part of a master
:02:21. > :02:24.plan to save the British economy from doom, or it is something they
:02:24. > :02:29.thought up this morning. We are told the cabinet met this morning
:02:29. > :02:34.and didn't discuss any changes to the fuel duty rise. And then, at
:02:34. > :02:40.12.30, Conservative MPs were sent something called a lines to take,
:02:40. > :02:47.this is what MPs get sent from all parties, to tell them what to say.
:02:47. > :02:50.They were told that the demand for the freeze, Labour's calls were
:02:50. > :02:56.hypocrisy of the worst kind, then it came that the Government enact
:02:56. > :03:00.add freeze on the duty. And it will cost, as they say, �550 billion to
:03:00. > :03:05.do that. Unusually, this is not something balanced by an immediate
:03:05. > :03:10.change in spending or tax elsewhere. It is something actually we don't
:03:10. > :03:14.know how it will be paid for. If we were in an election we would hear
:03:14. > :03:18.the Government being accused of an uncosted tax move. It is all to
:03:18. > :03:24.play for. We might find out what is the situation soon. These U-turns
:03:24. > :03:29.are coming thick and fast. To those waiting with bathed breath
:03:29. > :03:36.for that favourite media catch phrase, "the U-turn", I have only
:03:36. > :03:43.one thing to say, you turn if you want to! Actually, George Osborne
:03:43. > :03:47.is for turning. Since the budget, he's U-turned on the pasty tax, the
:03:47. > :03:52.caravan tax, the charities' tax, and today it was a planned tax on
:03:52. > :04:02.petrol, fuel duty. I can tell people we will now stop any rise in
:04:02. > :04:02.
:04:02. > :04:08.fuel duty this August, and freeze it for the rest of the year. This
:04:08. > :04:13.means that fuel duty will be 10p a litre lower than plans by the last
:04:14. > :04:17.Labour Government. The move came as Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru
:04:17. > :04:22.were forcing a vote on the planned increase. It left the Shadow
:04:22. > :04:28.Chancellor, not for the first time, performing the political equivalent
:04:28. > :04:34.of a victory roll. We have now had a U-turn on pasties, caravans,
:04:34. > :04:38.skips, churches, and now today a U- turn on fuel, which we welcome.
:04:38. > :04:43.Though today's move follow as campaign by the Sun Newspaper, and
:04:43. > :04:47.Tory backbenchers, there is more to this than populisim. Last week the
:04:47. > :04:51.Government pumped �80 billion into the banks significant tem, and
:04:51. > :04:56.there could be another �50 billion of money printing on the way. It
:04:56. > :05:00.looks like there is a stimulus, and this bit, definitely is, fiscal.
:05:00. > :05:05.The reason for that is clear, the Governor of the Bank of England
:05:05. > :05:10.ripped up a forecast he made six months ago today, and went into his
:05:10. > :05:14.full doomsayier act. We are in the middle of a deep crisis, with
:05:14. > :05:17.enormous challenges to put our own banking system right, and
:05:17. > :05:21.challenges from the rest of the world that they too are struggling
:05:21. > :05:27.with. Sir Mervyn said he had no idea what is about to happen in the
:05:27. > :05:32.your stkron, and predicting a return to -- in the eurozone, and
:05:32. > :05:36.predicting a return to normality in Britain would be stab in the dark.
:05:36. > :05:39.When they started most people, including ourselves, still didn't
:05:39. > :05:43.believe we would be right in the middle and the thick of it five
:05:43. > :05:45.years later. All the way through I said to this committee, I don't
:05:45. > :05:51.think yet think we are half way through. That I have always said
:05:51. > :05:56.that, and I'm still saying T that tells you a lot about how my
:05:56. > :06:00.estimate how long this will go on for is expanding with time. With
:06:00. > :06:07.the eurozone in recession, and a sense of crisis in Berlin, there is
:06:07. > :06:12.a nightmare scenario, where the export market collapses, and the
:06:12. > :06:17.growth slows here, and it goes off course. The tax yield this year is
:06:17. > :06:21.lower than expected and the deficit higher already this year. Right now
:06:21. > :06:24.George Osborne's credibility is a precious commodity. Billions upon
:06:24. > :06:27.billions of pounds are riding on the fact that we have a Chancellor
:06:27. > :06:32.that says what he means and means what he says. It doesn't help one
:06:32. > :06:36.little bit for him to keep making U-turn after U-turn after U-turn on
:06:36. > :06:42.this budget. U-turns don't seem to stop, we have had a month of them
:06:42. > :06:46.now. Ultimately, this will undermine Osborne's credibility.
:06:46. > :06:54.money terms, today's U-turn is bigger d in money terms, today's U-
:06:54. > :06:57.turn is bigger than all the rest. It is �550 billion, and made up of
:06:57. > :07:01.departmental spending cuts, education, health, who knows, it
:07:01. > :07:05.won't be announced until November. The danger for Osborne is not
:07:05. > :07:09.primarily that he looks weak and decisive, but on the big issue, the
:07:09. > :07:14.deficit, he's sticking to Plan A. It is just when you launch and
:07:14. > :07:19.cancel tax increase, at a rate of one a week, you can begin to look
:07:19. > :07:24.incompetent. This is a followership, rather than leadership. They
:07:24. > :07:27.basically came up with a plan, and if people didn't like it they came
:07:27. > :07:32.up with another one. You can argue it is a great modern way of
:07:32. > :07:36.governing with opinion polling and decision making, or you can argue
:07:36. > :07:39.it is indecisive and undermining George Osborne's own judgment. If
:07:39. > :07:44.he says he's going to do something, there is a lot of money now riding
:07:44. > :07:48.on he's going to do it. Meanwhile drivers, pasty eerts, caravan
:07:49. > :07:51.owners and chuggers unite, right now it feels like every day is
:07:51. > :07:55.Budget Day. Chloe Smith, the Treasury Minister,
:07:55. > :07:59.is here with us, when were you told of the change of plan? As a
:07:59. > :08:02.minister in the Treasury, and dealing with fuel matters, this has
:08:02. > :08:06.been under consideration for some time. When was the decision taken?
:08:06. > :08:10.As I say, it has been under consideration for some time. When
:08:10. > :08:14.was the decision taken? The Prime Minister and the Chancellor take
:08:14. > :08:17.these decisions between them. were you told then? I have been
:08:17. > :08:21.involved in this for some time. didn't take the decision, you say
:08:21. > :08:26.the Chancellor and the Prime Minister did, when were you told?
:08:26. > :08:33.We had a collective discussion of that in due course, and although I
:08:33. > :08:39.can't give you the full glory details. Did you -- did it happen
:08:39. > :08:43.today? I can't tell you the ins and the outs. Why isn't it appropriate?
:08:43. > :08:47.You are coming here to defend a changele policy, and you can't even
:08:47. > :08:49.tell me when you were told the change of policy was? As a minister
:08:49. > :08:52.in the Treasury I have been involved in the discussions for
:08:52. > :08:56.some time. As I said to you, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor
:08:56. > :09:00.talk those decision, I can't give awe running commentry on who said
:09:00. > :09:04.what. I'm not asking for that, I'm asking for the statement of fact of
:09:04. > :09:07.when you were told, you were told some time today, clearly, was it
:09:08. > :09:14.before or after lunch? I'm not going to give you a commentry on
:09:14. > :09:19.who says what and when. I just want to know when were you told what the
:09:19. > :09:24.change of policy was? This has been under discussion for some weeks.
:09:24. > :09:27.And at some point during those several weeks, they communicated to
:09:28. > :09:33.you that there had been a decision to change the policy? Indeed, and
:09:33. > :09:37.today in front of parliament we revealed to parliament, as is right
:09:37. > :09:41.and proper, to parliament, that we were planning to help households
:09:41. > :09:45.and businesss in this way. Is it hard for you to defend a policy you
:09:45. > :09:53.don't agree with? It is not that injure me nice question, I do agree
:09:53. > :09:56.with it. You didn't in May? Go on. In May you said, it was not certain
:09:56. > :10:00.that cutting fuel duty would have a positive effect on families or
:10:00. > :10:04.businesses so, what's happened? think the point to be made out of
:10:04. > :10:08.that, and out of what has then been said today, is it is important to
:10:08. > :10:12.do what you think you can to help households and businesses in a
:10:12. > :10:15.world we are facing, I this think your introduction pulled some of
:10:15. > :10:19.those themes out N a world we are facing which is very hard for
:10:19. > :10:23.households and businesses, you have to do what you can and in good
:10:23. > :10:27.faith so, they can get the help they need in hard times. You said
:10:27. > :10:31.it wasn't certain that cutting fuel duty would have a positive effect
:10:31. > :10:36.on families and businesses, that was on the 23rd of May, what has
:10:36. > :10:42.happened between then and now, the 25th of June? I don't think many
:10:42. > :10:47.things are certain in this world. There are a lot of uncertainties
:10:47. > :10:52.here? Families or businesses could save the money saved on the fuel
:10:52. > :10:56.duty, there is lots of ways it could pan out for them. Why didn't
:10:56. > :10:59.the Government only know about it yesterday? It is very important
:10:59. > :11:03.that the Government acts on concerns it hears. As I said about
:11:03. > :11:07.who, what and when, the Government will make its policy, and
:11:07. > :11:11.importantly comes to parliament with it. Isn't the cost petrol in
:11:11. > :11:15.people's cars a matter of legitimate interest to the
:11:15. > :11:18.Transport Secretary, who didn't know yesterday? Of course it is
:11:18. > :11:22.matter of legitimate interests to households and businesses. As you
:11:22. > :11:26.know taxes or the Chancellor, and in this case, the Chancellor and
:11:26. > :11:31.the Prime Minister took the decision. It is going to cost you
:11:31. > :11:36.say now, about �550 million, in contrast with your figure on the
:11:36. > :11:39.2rd of May, which was about �1.5 billion. You just got the sums
:11:39. > :11:42.wrong, did you? They refer to two slightly different things. The
:11:42. > :11:47.question being asked in May, I believe, was about a full
:11:47. > :11:51.cancellation, and of course, as you will be aware from today, we have
:11:51. > :11:58.been talking of deferring the cough rise to January, the two are
:11:58. > :12:03.different -- the rise to January. The two are different. You say it
:12:03. > :12:08.is now �550 million, can you tell us from which departments that gap
:12:08. > :12:14.will be made up? It will be made up, it will be drawn from, and around
:12:14. > :12:19.�500 million is the correct figure, because we are talking about a
:12:19. > :12:22.deferral. It will be drawn from underspending in departmental
:12:22. > :12:26.budgets. Where? There are a number of those available. We know for
:12:26. > :12:30.example, this year, if you look at the public sector data relosed only
:12:30. > :12:34.today, we know that under-- released only today, we know that
:12:34. > :12:40.the rate of spending is less than the OBR was forecast. Those figures
:12:40. > :12:44.are there today. Where? Last year there were �4 mill billion of those.
:12:44. > :12:48.Which department will it come from? They fall across in different ways.
:12:48. > :12:51.That figure will progress in the year. Name a few departments?
:12:51. > :12:56.won't do, that we will give the full details soon. Are you waiting
:12:56. > :13:03.to be told that as well? No. know do you, you know which
:13:03. > :13:13.departments have underspent (it is not possible to give awe full
:13:13. > :13:18.breakdown Undersuspect? It is not possible to give a fall -- under
:13:18. > :13:23.spent? It is not possible to give a full figure there? It is not
:13:23. > :13:27.possible at the moment to do that. Presumably you know which
:13:27. > :13:32.departments but are choosing not to? It is an aggregate figure.
:13:32. > :13:36.are choosing not to tell us which Government departments have
:13:36. > :13:41.underspent? It is an aggregate figure, that is what is important.
:13:41. > :13:46.The figure says there is enough underspend to do this. When we see
:13:46. > :13:49.that kind of funding available, we want it for the good of households
:13:49. > :13:54.and businesses. Can you confirm to us that the number one priority of
:13:54. > :13:59.your Government is reducing the deficit? It is indeed. That is the
:13:59. > :14:04.number one priority? The fact of using underspends for this, means
:14:04. > :14:08.our plan is absolutely intact, that is rightly what we seek to use for
:14:08. > :14:12.the credibility of our fiscal plan. Is this some sort of joke. How can
:14:12. > :14:17.you possibly have as a number one priority cutting the deficit, when
:14:17. > :14:22.you choose to spend and underspend in funding a tax cut o failure to
:14:22. > :14:27.implement a tax rise, which was -- or failure to implement a tax rise,
:14:27. > :14:31.which was on schedule? The plan overall has not changed, it remains
:14:31. > :14:37.the departmental budgets as laid out. We are look to go uets
:14:37. > :14:42.underspends in a way that is -- to use the underspends in a way that
:14:42. > :14:48.is valuable, and anyone who drives a car knows that. We heard today
:14:48. > :14:53.that Government borrowing increased by �3 billion in may? Do you want
:14:53. > :14:56.me to answer that or are you finishing the sentence.
:14:56. > :15:01.wondering why you didn't use the money to pay that down? The figures
:15:01. > :15:06.on the other side of that public sector data released today, are
:15:06. > :15:09.interesting in themselves, they relate to one-off factors,
:15:09. > :15:12.specifically in when payments were made in May and June. That is
:15:12. > :15:15.interesting in a different conversation. The fact is here we
:15:15. > :15:18.are sticking to the overall plan and taking the opportunities we
:15:18. > :15:23.have to help households and businesses. Do you ever wake up in
:15:23. > :15:26.the morning and think, my God, what will I be told today? I wake up in
:15:26. > :15:30.the morning and know that some of my constituents will really value
:15:30. > :15:33.not having to pay that little bit more on fuel price, come August,
:15:33. > :15:37.because the cost of living is pretty tight at the moment,
:15:37. > :15:41.everybody does know. That I think this move today is valuable. It is
:15:41. > :15:45.not just a Westminster village story, it is real money in real
:15:45. > :15:47.people's pockets. We all understand that? Good. Do you ever think you
:15:47. > :15:51.are incompetent? I think it is valuable to help real people in
:15:51. > :15:57.this way, I do think that is valued by people who drive.
:15:57. > :16:05.Thank you. Later in the programme, Paul Mason
:16:05. > :16:12.will be back to explain why the European Prime Minister is
:16:12. > :16:19.threatening to make Angela Merkel an offer she can't refuse. Tomorrow
:16:19. > :16:23.the Queen will meet amicablely with Martin McGuiness, a former member
:16:23. > :16:28.of the organisation that killed her cousin, Lord Mountbatten. The Queen
:16:28. > :16:35.drew crowds today. It is a real testament to how things have
:16:35. > :16:38.changed in that corner of the kingdom. Peter Taylor reported
:16:38. > :16:42.throughout the Troubles in Northern Ireland, including a response to
:16:42. > :16:45.the Queen that was quite different. The Queen set foot in a Northern
:16:45. > :16:55.Ireland that was a world away from the troubled province she visited
:16:55. > :16:57.
:16:57. > :17:01.35 years ago, on her Silver Jubilee. Back then, in 1977, I made this
:17:01. > :17:06.controversial film about the Queen's tour, which took place
:17:06. > :17:11.through one of the most violent periods of the conflict. In this
:17:12. > :17:15.improving atmosphere, those with different beliefs and aspirations,
:17:16. > :17:22.understand that if this community is to survive and prosper, they
:17:22. > :17:27.must live and work together in friendship and forgiveness.
:17:27. > :17:32.It was due to be shown in peak time, on the last day of her visit. Then,
:17:32. > :17:36.ten minutes before it was due to go on air, ITV's regulators stopped
:17:36. > :17:45.the film's transmission. It later trickled out over the network in a
:17:45. > :17:50.late night slot. The ostensable reason for stopping
:17:50. > :18:00.the film was a legal problem over the inflammatory words spoken by a
:18:00. > :18:05.
:18:05. > :18:08.militant Republican, we weren't allowed to hear his voice. But I
:18:08. > :18:12.have always believed the real reason for stopping the film, was
:18:12. > :18:16.because its message was in direct conflict of the spin that the then
:18:16. > :18:20.Labour Government of the day wanted to place on the visit. Ministers
:18:20. > :18:23.wanted to present the Queen as the great healer of the division
:18:23. > :18:28.between the two communities. Historically she was symbolic of
:18:28. > :18:33.the division itself. I saw how the visit highlighted the
:18:33. > :18:36.bitter empty between loyalists and republicans. There was to be no
:18:36. > :18:43.healing here. Which don't accept a British Queen, we never will accept
:18:43. > :18:48.a British Queen. We don't want her here at all. She is not our Queen.
:18:48. > :18:52.The second day of the visit, just before the royal helicopter was due
:18:52. > :18:55.to land...In 1977, security was so precare yu, that Her Majesty wasn't
:18:56. > :19:03.allowed to spend -- precarious, that Her Majesty wasn't allowed to
:19:04. > :19:08.spend a night in the province. She was helicoptered in, having spent a
:19:08. > :19:13.night offshore. Cheer was was from a carefully selected crowd. While
:19:13. > :19:16.the Queen was being welcomed at Hillsborough, the Provisional IRA
:19:16. > :19:22.mounted a roadblock in an estate a few miles away. We were told
:19:22. > :19:27.earlier in the day a snub to the Queen was planned. This was it,
:19:27. > :19:32.more propaganda than military exercise. Perhaps more our benefit
:19:32. > :19:39.or a morale booster for supporters. It lasted more than five minutes,
:19:39. > :19:49.but within half a mile of an army post out of sight. 3,000 supporter
:19:49. > :19:52.
:19:52. > :19:57.of the IRA hailed "Queen Elizabeth of death" down the road.
:19:57. > :20:03.organised a march to show she had no support in this area of Belfast.
:20:03. > :20:09.We weren't allowed in the city centre, the march was banned.
:20:09. > :20:12.After the preliminary skirmish, battle commenced. The army snap
:20:13. > :20:22.squad tries to outflank the rioters, but is driven back. This is the
:20:23. > :20:37.
:20:37. > :20:43.ugly face of Ulster. This is the In 1977, the unionist politician,
:20:43. > :20:48.John Taylor, told me the IRA was on the run. Five years earlier he had
:20:48. > :20:52.been machine gunned by the official IRA.
:20:52. > :20:57.How do Protestants regard the Queen's visit? They were delighted
:20:57. > :21:00.she has come, for several years they were complaining that there
:21:00. > :21:04.appeared to be little interest by the Royal Family and the problems
:21:04. > :21:06.we were having in Northern Ireland. They are thrilled. It comes when
:21:06. > :21:11.changes are taking place in Northern Ireland, and it does
:21:11. > :21:16.appear that the IRA are in retreat. John Taylor's predictions proved
:21:16. > :21:19.premature, two years later the IRA murdered the Queen's cousin, Lord
:21:20. > :21:26.Mountbatten, when they blew up his boat. A bomb also killed two family
:21:26. > :21:32.relatives and a member of the crew. The IRA followed up the attack by
:21:32. > :21:37.killing 18 soldiers on the same day, in a double bombing at Warren Point.
:21:37. > :21:42.It was to be almost another 20 bloody years before the IRA ended
:21:42. > :21:52.its campaign, and Sinn Fein finally signed up to the Good Friday
:21:52. > :21:52.
:21:52. > :21:57.Agreement. I reminded John Taylor, now Lord Killcluney, of what he
:21:57. > :22:01.told me all those years ago. Why did you say that? Morale was under
:22:01. > :22:05.attack, by the British majority in Northern Ireland, they had attacks
:22:05. > :22:08.from the terrorist organisations, likewise the nationalist community
:22:08. > :22:14.was increasing in numbers, so politically the British majority
:22:15. > :22:20.were under attack. And there was a suspicion that the English, Tory
:22:20. > :22:23.and Labour, could not be relied upon. So the fact that Her Majesty
:22:23. > :22:29.was coming was great for morale amongst the British majority in
:22:29. > :22:36.Northern Ireland. In 1977, I filmed the funeral of
:22:36. > :22:40.Paul McWilliams, an IRA teenager who had been shot by the army. I
:22:40. > :22:42.interviewed some of the women who had followed his coffin. We don't
:22:42. > :22:47.regard ourselves as British subjects, we are not British
:22:47. > :22:51.subjects. Do you think she's not a brave lady for coming to Belfast?
:22:51. > :22:54.No, I class her any braver than I, I think I'm braver than her, I have
:22:54. > :22:58.to live here, while the British soldiers are on about shooting
:22:58. > :23:02.people down. No I wouldn't give her any medals for coming over to
:23:02. > :23:07.Northern Ireland. I finally tracked down Eileen Shaw,
:23:07. > :23:12.and replayed the interview I did with her in 1977. Have you changed
:23:12. > :23:18.your views now, given that the Queen is about to come to Belfast
:23:18. > :23:25.again? No. In fact it has got stronger. I'm getting older,
:23:25. > :23:30.nothing's changed. The Queen is the figurehead of repression. Strip-
:23:30. > :23:36.searches and the condition of iconic republican prisoners like
:23:36. > :23:40.Marian Price, are among the issues that fuel dissidents' anger. If you
:23:40. > :23:48.got to meet the Queen what would you say to her? I wouldn't waste my
:23:48. > :23:52.breath on her. The arrival of the Queen and her
:23:52. > :23:58.Silver Jubilee visit, was cause for great celebrations in the back
:23:58. > :24:02.streets of the loyalist Shankill road. I have watched every news
:24:02. > :24:08.bulletin, read all the papers, we are proud to be British and proud
:24:08. > :24:13.to have her as our Queen. Helen Greg died some time ago, I visited
:24:13. > :24:19.the Shankill women's centre to see if royal fervour was as strong as
:24:19. > :24:25.ever. When I showed them the film, it was no surprised that it proved
:24:25. > :24:30.undiminished. But, unable to get one of the
:24:30. > :24:34.10,000 free tickets for the royal garden party tomorrow, they had at
:24:34. > :24:42.least won a cow in a charity competition, and will decorate it
:24:42. > :24:47.in Jubilee colours. I just love the Queen. I love all the Royal Family.
:24:47. > :24:50.I'm glad to see she's coming here. But will will loyalist war drums
:24:50. > :24:54.fall silent when Martin McGuiness shakes the hand of the Queen
:24:54. > :24:57.tomorrow. I would be very pleased to see him do that. It would mean
:24:57. > :25:01.the world to me, so it would. It would mean the world to a lot of
:25:01. > :25:07.people. Because the IRA murdered her cousin, Lord Mountbatten,
:25:07. > :25:12.shaking hands may be difficult for the Queen too. Yes, I think it
:25:12. > :25:16.would be a major ask on the Queen's part as well. And this is maybe
:25:16. > :25:20.massive one for the Queen to take. But it will certainly send out a
:25:20. > :25:25.strong and clear message to the people of Northern Ireland. But the
:25:25. > :25:33.Queen would shake his hand, I have no doubt whatsoever. Because of the
:25:33. > :25:40.lady that she is, she will do this. Today, the dark clouds of 1977 seem
:25:40. > :25:45.a million miles away. Private Harrison was the 270th soldier to
:25:45. > :25:51.die in Northern Ireland. Another 233 were to follow, before peace
:25:51. > :25:57.finally came. When Martin McGuiness shakes the Queen's hand tomorrow,
:25:57. > :26:00.it will be a historic event of enormous significance for both
:26:00. > :26:06.communities. Do you hope Mr McGuiness shakes Her Majesty's
:26:06. > :26:10.hand? I would hope so. I have never shaken his hand, I'm a politician,
:26:10. > :26:14.and I feel more hesitant about shaking the hands of IRA people,
:26:14. > :26:18.especially since I got ten bullets through my head at one time. Do you
:26:18. > :26:23.think Martin McGuiness should shake the Queen's hand? As a republican I
:26:23. > :26:27.have no objections in Martin McGuiness, as a joint First
:26:27. > :26:29.Minister, he also has to remember he's representing all of the
:26:29. > :26:33.community, and not just our republicanism.
:26:33. > :26:38.But, not all sections of the republican community are prepared
:26:38. > :26:43.to welcome the Queen. Last Saturday, dissidents made it abundantly clear
:26:43. > :26:49.that the Queen was an unwelcome foreign visitor.
:26:49. > :26:55.If Martin McGuiness were to meet the Queen, and shake her hand, what
:26:55. > :27:00.would your reaction be? My reaction would be Martin, wake up and smell
:27:00. > :27:05.the coffee, you're telling us your republican, you told those lads
:27:05. > :27:09.years and years ago, you don't recognise the court, you don't
:27:09. > :27:13.recognise the Queen, and a lot of people dead, young lads, mothers
:27:13. > :27:18.sitting like me, probably, sitting crying thinking about their
:27:18. > :27:23.children, and he's going to shake the hand of the woman who put them
:27:23. > :27:27.there. On his head be it, if he calls himself a republican, God
:27:27. > :27:32.help Ireland. The attitude of many republicans towards the Queen began
:27:32. > :27:37.to change when she visited Dublin last year. And laid a wreath at the
:27:37. > :27:41.memorial to those who died fighting for Irish independence. What I
:27:41. > :27:48.actually was impressed at her going to the Garden of Remembrance, in
:27:48. > :27:52.that circumstance, it did have a healing effect, unlike, in complete
:27:52. > :27:56.contrast to 1977, where it was viewed as triumphalist, and we were
:27:56. > :28:01.still being driven into the ground. I look forward to the day when we
:28:01. > :28:06.may return to enjoy, with the people of Northern Ireland, some of
:28:06. > :28:11.the better and happier times, so long awaited, and so richly
:28:11. > :28:18.deserved. When Martin McGuiness shakes the
:28:18. > :28:22.Queen's hand tomorrow, it may suggest that day has finally come.
:28:22. > :28:27.To explore the significance of this meeting are the author and film
:28:27. > :28:37.maker, Kevin Toulise, who has written one of the most detailed
:28:37. > :28:38.
:28:38. > :28:43.accounts of the IRA. And joined by former prisoner and hunger striker
:28:43. > :28:48.Tommy Mckeany. What harm is there in a handshake? Ultimately you
:28:48. > :28:51.could say there is no harm in it. But it is political theatre, and a
:28:51. > :28:54.symbolism that has little meaning overall. And ultimately, I think
:28:55. > :28:58.what is happening here is this is displaysing the need for real
:28:58. > :29:04.politics in Northern Ireland, to examine the real issues that are
:29:04. > :29:08.dividing us. The lack of employment, the coming of austerity that has
:29:09. > :29:12.been produced by London. Those are the real issues that need to be
:29:12. > :29:18.addressed, that will ultimately bring this community together. This
:29:18. > :29:23.type of gesture politics, we have had 10, 15 years of gesture,
:29:23. > :29:27.symbolism, we are weighed down with symbolism. What we need now is real
:29:27. > :29:31.politics, we need to be mature enough to sit down and look at what
:29:31. > :29:34.is happening. Instead of being presented with one more gesture,
:29:34. > :29:38.this type of theatrical operation that is going to take place
:29:38. > :29:43.tomorrow, that won't really address the issues in the slightest. Why is
:29:43. > :29:49.he doing this tomorrow? I think it is a good question. You have to
:29:49. > :29:52.think of what are the republicans seeking to get out of it. I think
:29:52. > :29:55.it is part of their political strategy geared towards the sou.
:29:55. > :30:00.They want to represent themselves, not as the churlish, childish
:30:00. > :30:05.protest, who protested against the Queen last year, but as a future,
:30:05. > :30:09.potential Government. A mature statesmanlike party. Doesn't it
:30:09. > :30:12.recognise the institutionalising of the border? I think you have to
:30:12. > :30:15.remember that republicans would move to the right, to the left,
:30:15. > :30:19.they would sup with the devil himself, if they thought that was a
:30:19. > :30:22.means of getting the Brits out of Ireland. And in this case, Martin
:30:22. > :30:27.McGuiness is perfectly prepared to shake the hand of the living symbol
:30:27. > :30:33.of all that he has opposed in his life. They are still intent on
:30:33. > :30:38.coming to power in Ireland. What do you make of that, as an approach?
:30:38. > :30:43.mean, I can see some logic in what Kevin is saying, it is quite
:30:43. > :30:45.possible that this is really viewed by Sinn Fein as something that will
:30:45. > :30:49.enhance their position in the Republic of Ireland. It would be
:30:49. > :30:55.doing at the cost, I would argue, to progress here in Northern
:30:55. > :31:00.Ireland. That's ultimately that there is a serious question mark
:31:00. > :31:04.hanging over the validity and value of this meeting which is what is
:31:04. > :31:11.ultimately the institution that is the British monarchy. An
:31:11. > :31:14.institution that is redolent of hereditary power and privilege, not
:31:14. > :31:20.something that will address the problems we are faced with. The
:31:20. > :31:25.whole idea of the Monarch coming here, in terms of the unqualified
:31:25. > :31:28.support, for example, that the monarchy heralds for the British
:31:28. > :31:32.military establishment, with all the destructiveness that brings
:31:32. > :31:35.internationally not just in Ireland. It is a means to answered, he
:31:35. > :31:39.saying, a means to answered, that's all? I don't believe it is a means
:31:39. > :31:43.to an end. I think there are certain flaws in the reading of
:31:43. > :31:47.this situation, that it undermines what is a very legitimate
:31:47. > :31:52.republican position, a democratic republican position. Not just an
:31:52. > :31:59.Irish republican position, but republicans internationally have a
:31:59. > :32:02.grave ves vaigs s about -- grave reservations about the hereditary
:32:02. > :32:07.monarchy. That is another point and can be argued over any country on
:32:07. > :32:13.earth. But in this particular context of Irish republicanism,
:32:13. > :32:17.where do you judge majority opinion lies? In terms of the south, or?
:32:17. > :32:21.terms of the north? I think really that Sinn Fein have almost mined
:32:21. > :32:26.out the north. They have won as much political support as they are
:32:26. > :32:29.likely to achieve, and their depol is the south. Gerry Adams is --
:32:29. > :32:33.their goal is the south. Gerry Adams is a rising political figure,
:32:33. > :32:40.they have moved very quickly in terms of number two in polls of the
:32:40. > :32:45.political parties. The plan, really, is that in 2016, the 100th
:32:45. > :32:53.anniversary of the Easter Rising, a man will come down the steps of the
:32:53. > :32:59.GPO, he will stand on the steps and read the Easter proclamation, and
:32:59. > :33:05.Gerry Adams want s to be that man. He will be the leader of 26
:33:05. > :33:10.counties and not 32? He will be the party in the north as well. It is a
:33:10. > :33:17.way of dissolving the border. If he can't change the constitution by
:33:17. > :33:20.bombs and bullets, or change the political process in Ireland, it
:33:20. > :33:23.will be through this device. I don't think anyone should fool
:33:23. > :33:27.themselves that the goal of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams and Martin
:33:27. > :33:29.McGuiness s to get a united Ireland, by hook or by crook, and get the
:33:29. > :33:34.Brits out. That is what they are there for. That is your objective
:33:34. > :33:37.too, isn't it? It is my objective, but it is also a democratic and
:33:37. > :33:42.socialist Republic is my objective. My concern with Sinn Fein and the
:33:42. > :33:46.Republic is, is they are moving towards the centre. That their
:33:46. > :33:51.politics will no longer be able to address the very real issues that
:33:51. > :33:55.are facing us. The issues I referred to at the outset. The real
:33:55. > :33:59.issues relating to Ireland are not relating to the monarchy and the
:33:59. > :34:02.royals, it is to the financial disaster coming to us, not just in
:34:02. > :34:06.Ireland, but right across Europe. Those are issues that will get
:34:06. > :34:09.worse and worse, we have to have an answer to that. Not through this
:34:09. > :34:13.type of symbolism, and Sinn Fein's move to the centre, Sinn Fein's
:34:13. > :34:18.move possibly to the right, will not bring with it the message and
:34:18. > :34:22.the means to address those issues, and Sinn Fein may not actually move
:34:22. > :34:25.in that position that Kevin is outlining. What Kevin is outlining
:34:25. > :34:30.is very close to the argument being made within Sinn Fein for moving in
:34:30. > :34:33.the direction that they are moving now. I think time will prove that
:34:33. > :34:39.this is a mistake. Thank you very much indeed.
:34:39. > :34:44.Now, if there ever was a time when MI5 officers wore trenchcoats and
:34:44. > :34:49.brimed hats, it is long gone. The head of the agency has disclosed
:34:49. > :34:54.that businesses in this country are under sustained attack by cyber
:34:54. > :34:59.warriors, it is investigating attack ones large companies, who
:34:59. > :35:06.the companies are he didn't say nor the companies behind them. It is
:35:06. > :35:11.computer maths and algorithms are much more use now than dead
:35:11. > :35:15.letterboxes and invisible ink. The group that calls itself Anonymous,
:35:15. > :35:18.claims "credit", if that is the word, for attacks on the systems in
:35:18. > :35:22.the Vatican, Interpol and the Chinese Government, and earlier
:35:22. > :35:27.this year, the Home Office. Butt the real scale of cybercrime is
:35:27. > :35:32.much more extensive and shadowy. From credit card fraud to loss of
:35:32. > :35:38.business, the cost of tacking is enormous. �800 million for just one
:35:38. > :35:46.firm, according to the MI5 boss. Evidence of state-sponsored hacking
:35:46. > :35:52.for political purposes is growing. The computer virus, Stucksnet is
:35:52. > :35:58.now the to have been cooked up by the US or Israeli states, to
:35:58. > :36:02.undermine the Iranian systems. Whatever they did is open up panned
:36:02. > :36:10.Dora's box, they allowed the tacking community and others to
:36:10. > :36:16.peer into a world of developing cyber weapons. How to tackle it,
:36:16. > :36:21.the British head of cyber-security said the answer lies in getting
:36:21. > :36:27.cybersophisticates to work for the good eulogise. GCHQs is one of the
:36:27. > :36:32.sponsors of a yearly competition to encourage cyber-talent. In the face
:36:32. > :36:36.of daily takes on Government systems, could that be enough.
:36:36. > :36:42.19-year-old Jonathan won this year's cyber-security competition.
:36:42. > :36:46.James is a veteran of cyber-defence and in Edinburgh we have our guest
:36:46. > :36:51.with lofts contact with our anonymous hackers, in the course of
:36:51. > :36:55.writing book on the subject. Let's analyse what the problem is?
:36:55. > :37:00.have three major areas, firstly, massive number of new computer
:37:00. > :37:08.viruses out there, designed to steal money from the public,
:37:08. > :37:13.listeners of this show. Secondly, a rise in be habgtvavisim, breaking
:37:13. > :37:20.into system, brandishing with tags and raising awareness. Thirdly, the
:37:20. > :37:23.increasing sack racial of state- sponsored malware attacks to steal
:37:23. > :37:27.military secrets or other information. You believe all three
:37:27. > :37:31.are these are real threats? three of these are very real
:37:31. > :37:37.threats. In terms of national security? Absolutely. The grandma
:37:37. > :37:41.jort lie in the first category -- grand majority lie in the first
:37:41. > :37:46.category, all about stealing money. How might a cyber-attack work?
:37:46. > :37:50.There is lots of ways. The most common is you would visit a website
:37:50. > :37:56.on your computer, because you are not patched and up-to-date, in the
:37:56. > :38:03.background the guys in the background are able to load a vie
:38:03. > :38:07.Russian without your permission, they will have a camera looking at
:38:08. > :38:14.what is going on, if you access your bank they will be able to get
:38:14. > :38:18.on and do that. If you have links with the group Anonymous, let's not
:38:18. > :38:22.get into the details of what they are said or said not to have done.
:38:22. > :38:26.What is the motivation for a group like that? There is a wide range of
:38:26. > :38:30.motivations. For one thing it isn't strictly a group, it is more of a
:38:30. > :38:35.process, and a culture of people, and an ever-shifting crowd of
:38:35. > :38:40.people on-line. You have people people, if you were going to divide
:38:40. > :38:46.it into two catches, there are people who want to disrupt on-line
:38:46. > :38:50.data for fun and pranks. And those with a more sociopolitical activist
:38:50. > :38:56.message. One thing I would say is one of the reasons we are seeing a
:38:56. > :39:01.growth in this kind of if he Nomura, is the art of hacking and
:39:01. > :39:06.distrupting on-line data is becoming -- disrupting on lion data
:39:06. > :39:11.is becoming easier. You have web tools freely available on-line,
:39:11. > :39:15.that anyone can download, that automate a cyber attack. The people
:39:15. > :39:18.part of Anonymous, are not superskilled hackers, but people
:39:18. > :39:22.who have grown up in internet culture, they are internet savvy,
:39:22. > :39:26.they understand how to get things done through social networks. This
:39:26. > :39:29.is one reason why traditional institutions like MI5, and other
:39:29. > :39:34.authorities, find it really hard to wrap their heads round how these
:39:34. > :39:37.guys work. As well as what they are doing effectively on-line, they are
:39:37. > :39:42.organising themselves so quickly and so openly. One can understand,
:39:42. > :39:47.I think, from the point of view of a subversive young person, the
:39:47. > :39:52.thrill of trying to get into something, where is the thrill in
:39:52. > :39:57.trying to stop somebody doing that? Well, I would say that to properly
:39:57. > :40:00.be able to defend a system from being subverted, you very much need
:40:00. > :40:04.to understand in what ways it is going to be subverted. Which means
:40:04. > :40:08.that you need to look at the system that is you are trying to defend,
:40:08. > :40:15.and try to think, what line of attack would I take would, that
:40:15. > :40:18.work. It is not hacking, as such, as it is not actually, it is
:40:18. > :40:22.obviously not breaking anybody else's system. It is looking into
:40:22. > :40:26.your own, and very much focusing on patching up the holes. It is
:40:26. > :40:30.equally rewarding, because you are still, essentially, looking at it,
:40:30. > :40:35.finding the challenge and trying to break things. You obviously don't
:40:35. > :40:39.face the risk of going to jail? That is a major bonus. In other
:40:39. > :40:44.words, you are not -- on the other hand you are not as school as the
:40:44. > :40:48.hacker? Arguably, but if you are not in jail, you are a step ahead
:40:48. > :40:54.of them! There is a lot of people in the security industry, that I
:40:54. > :41:02.talk to, who got into security through very ease sow terrik roots,
:41:02. > :41:07.not as direct as Jonathan has had the opportunity. They have these
:41:07. > :41:10.altruistic motivations, want to go stop their friends and family being
:41:10. > :41:14.hacked on-line. It is an interesting vein going through T
:41:14. > :41:18.but applying the skills without going to jail is a big perk.
:41:18. > :41:25.Let's explore the question, the head of MI5 was talking about how
:41:25. > :41:31.you go about acquiring an army of cyberwarriors to defend yourself,
:41:31. > :41:34.where do you find them? That is the huge challenge, organisations
:41:34. > :41:39.aren't finding them through the direct hiring roots. It is finding
:41:39. > :41:42.people with a certain way of thinking, it is not about a certain
:41:42. > :41:46.set of qualifications you can look up on a CV. You have to go to
:41:46. > :41:51.different forums and exchanges. Looking at different technologies
:41:51. > :41:55.we were talking about, and pose challenges that appeal to their
:41:55. > :42:01.intellect. Jonathan didn't know he wanted to be in cyber-security, we
:42:01. > :42:07.had to find a way of getting him interested without him coming to us.
:42:07. > :42:11.What is your thought about where you find this army of cyber-
:42:11. > :42:16.sophisticated, who are capable of withstanding the risk posed either
:42:16. > :42:20.by criminal organisations or indeed foreign Governments? I think they
:42:20. > :42:25.are everywhere. They will be mostly young people. We're looking at a
:42:25. > :42:32.generation now that are growing up with the Internet. People who have
:42:33. > :42:36.known it all their lives. Many, many more young people know how to
:42:36. > :42:44.programme and code. I think it is a matter of going on-line to find
:42:44. > :42:47.them. Going to different forums. One of the reasons why many people
:42:47. > :42:51.find Anonymous attractive, is people who tend to be most
:42:51. > :42:55.passionate about it tend to be drifting a little bit. They find it
:42:55. > :42:58.community and purpose, they latch on to it. That is very attractive
:42:58. > :43:03.for people. If something like that can be offered as well as engagment,
:43:03. > :43:12.it is a matter of attracting these people in that way. What do you
:43:12. > :43:16.make of it? I very much would say that you do need to find the
:43:16. > :43:20.alternative roots through the cyber-security challenge. Really
:43:21. > :43:27.attract them through ways that very much engage them. Much more than,
:43:27. > :43:35.as James was saying, looking for the qualifications so much. It is
:43:35. > :43:40.very much about the apt tued, looking for a way of -- aptitude,
:43:40. > :43:49.looking for a way of thinking. sense of belonging? You don't need
:43:49. > :43:53.to be in illegal group to long. There is the good and bad, and you
:43:53. > :43:56.belong to one of the sides. It is not just, there is not only one way
:43:56. > :44:01.of belonging. Thank you all very much.
:44:01. > :44:04.Before we look at tomorrow's front pages. There are some alarming
:44:04. > :44:10.briefings coming from Rome in the run up to the crucial European
:44:10. > :44:15.Summit. Paul Mason has come back. Jeremy, it has been one of those
:44:15. > :44:25.interesting days in the non- resolution of the eurocrisis. The
:44:25. > :44:26.
:44:26. > :44:32.first thing that happened is Mr Von Rumpuy, decided to publish the
:44:32. > :44:40.summit, with the fiscal and the political European eventually, the
:44:40. > :44:45.whole -- political union, eventually the whole of the groups
:44:45. > :44:51.getting together. Mrs Merkel chose to make a speech to one of their
:44:51. > :44:57.political parties, which said there would be no pooling of debt, namely
:44:57. > :45:01.eurobonds, as long as she is alive. It prompted a shout from from the
:45:02. > :45:06.audience, "long may you live", at Mrs Merkel. The Italian Prime
:45:06. > :45:10.Minister, appointed, you remember, last year, in a great technocratic
:45:10. > :45:15.coup against Italy and Greece, it looks like he's on his last legs.
:45:15. > :45:20.He can't come home in the summer without some resolution. He lickly
:45:20. > :45:23.renounced the bogs of the German -- publicly renounced the boss of the
:45:23. > :45:27.Germany bank. Silvio Berlusconi, the former Prime Minister, is
:45:27. > :45:31.getting ready to move against Mr Monti, the technocrat, unless
:45:31. > :45:36.something happens. So we have got a day-and-a-half until the summit,
:45:36. > :45:40.and then something better happen. Thank you very much.
:45:40. > :45:50.Tomorrow morning's front pages. Most going with George Osborne's
:45:50. > :46:10.
:46:11. > :46:14.latest U-turn. This time on the That's all from Newsnight tonight,
:46:14. > :46:20.I will leave you with the spectacle of the daily constitutional taken
:46:21. > :46:25.by the 5,000 ducks longing to Mr Hong Minshun, from Taishou, we
:46:25. > :46:32.break all four of our self-imposed rules for film clicks at the end of
:46:32. > :46:42.the broke, no animals, no events that didn't happen today, no
:46:42. > :47:15.
:47:15. > :47:19.A really warm and humid night, I really haven't seen many of those
:47:19. > :47:22.this summer. Outbreaks of rain across Northern Ireland, northern
:47:22. > :47:26.England and zone Scotland for a good part of the day. Further south
:47:26. > :47:31.grey and mist year, brightening up, any sunshine across the midlands
:47:31. > :47:35.and eastern England could striinger heavy and thundery showers. --
:47:35. > :47:40.trigger heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures could get into the low
:47:41. > :47:46.20s. Around the coast of south-west England it could stay dull and
:47:46. > :47:50.misty, temperatures will struggle. Inland across Wales t should
:47:50. > :47:54.brighten up and feel humid. Temperatures stuck at 13 or 14 on
:47:54. > :47:59.the west coast if it turns dull and misty. A wet start in Northern
:47:59. > :48:05.Ireland, dryer and brighter here in the afternoon. Cloudy with
:48:05. > :48:07.outbreaks of rain across the day. The Highlands turning dryer. More
:48:07. > :48:11.rain across southern Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday. That
:48:11. > :48:15.is cause for concern. The rain building up over the next couple of
:48:15. > :48:19.days. Further south, well it will be warm and humid, particularly