:00:19. > :00:24.Tonight the darkness that leads There's nothing new in the idea of
:00:24. > :00:29.Baby Blues, but one in five may suffer from postpartum psychosis
:00:29. > :00:39.with catastrophic consequences for some. I started getting unpleasant
:00:39. > :00:45.
:00:45. > :00:55.the stairs. I was just so my boy. In Newsnight exclusive,
:00:55. > :01:01.
:01:01. > :01:11.we'll see how the problems can be three days. We'll ask what more can
:01:11. > :01:21.
:01:21. > :01:27.thought British men had peculiar pregnancy. If it is legitimate rape,
:01:27. > :01:35.they can shut that down. We'll see how the views can be used
:01:35. > :01:45.by the Democrats. Rape is rape. borrowing going up, big economic
:01:45. > :01:59.
:01:59. > :02:09.minds have advice for the Prime you lose touch with reality,
:02:09. > :02:11.
:02:11. > :02:16.case it is can lead to a mother recognise the symptoms, but women
:02:16. > :02:26.who have suffered from it, are trying to change this. Newsnight
:02:26. > :02:36.have been given access to the lives shortly after coming birth. The
:02:36. > :02:44.
:02:44. > :02:46.I was just so frightened, I didn't want to hurt my boy. I knew
:02:46. > :02:53.somebody had to help me. Women are more at risk of severe
:02:53. > :02:58.mental illness after giving birth than any time in their lives. One
:02:58. > :03:05.day I thought about doing it, about smothering the boys while they had
:03:05. > :03:11.their lunch time sleep. This woman did kill her baby and then herself.
:03:11. > :03:16.What I saw that night, my beautiful wife and daughter, even now, I
:03:16. > :03:26.can't come prehend that. We've been extraordinary access to the lives
:03:26. > :03:34.
:03:34. > :03:41.of three women, who all became ill, Shelley Blanchard's baby is due in
:03:41. > :03:50.the next few weeks, and she's come into her final checkup. But it is
:03:50. > :03:56.not the baby that medical staff are It is her. One in ten new mothers
:03:56. > :04:03.suffer from post-natal depression, but shelly is at risk something
:04:03. > :04:09.Postpartum psychosis. Mental health problems of varying degrees will
:04:09. > :04:17.affect one in four of us at some pointed in our lives. But women
:04:17. > :04:23.given birth are susceptible to the most serious illness. I'm scared,
:04:23. > :04:29.emotional now. I'm scared I'm going to harm the baby, or, I've read
:04:29. > :04:34.some things that ,, sorry, I've read some things that women think
:04:34. > :04:40.the baby is talking to them and telling them to do things and that
:04:40. > :04:44.the baby will get taken away from me, that's my biggest fear. It is
:04:44. > :04:50.not known what causes postpartum psychosis, but the massive more
:04:50. > :04:56.mopbl changes that follow child birth are thought to play a
:04:56. > :05:01.significant role. How are you well, since the last time I saw you?
:05:01. > :05:04.Mood-wise, I'm agitated, sleep pattern is terrible. One in 500
:05:04. > :05:14.women who have given birth will suffer from postpartum psychosis.
:05:14. > :05:14.
:05:14. > :05:23.And it can strike out of the blue. The majority of women who have a
:05:23. > :05:28.post postpartum psychosis or very, very severe depression illness,
:05:28. > :05:34.will have no risk factors, they have no family history or past
:05:34. > :05:40.illness, there is a proportion of women who you can predict. Shelley
:05:40. > :05:44.Blanchard has buy polar disorder and means she's a one in two chance
:05:44. > :05:51.of becoming severely ill after having her baby. Everyone looking
:05:51. > :05:56.after her, knows they need to be alert. Dr Nick Best is a
:05:56. > :06:03.psychiatrist. Who specialises in caring for pregnant women and new
:06:03. > :06:06.mothers with mental health problems. OK, a long time no see, since I saw
:06:06. > :06:11.you. He will be seeing Shelley Blanchard regularly over the few
:06:11. > :06:17.months and she gets home visits from the community psychiatric
:06:17. > :06:22.nurse. When the mood change happens, if it is, it can be rapid, so
:06:22. > :06:27.that's where the eyes and ears of the midwife and health visitor is
:06:27. > :06:32.helpful. If we got a call from anybody who expressed concern, we'd
:06:32. > :06:36.come out immediately. Cool. It is the speed with which
:06:36. > :06:41.the condition develops, together with the severity which makes it
:06:41. > :06:47.dangerous. A person can move from being relatively ameanable and
:06:47. > :06:57.understanding of a situation, to floridly unwell, psychotic,
:06:57. > :07:02.
:07:02. > :07:12.delusional and paranoid, in the Daksha Emson knows how serious,
:07:12. > :07:12.
:07:12. > :07:21.postpartum psychosis can be. I know about 5.30 or so, and, as I got to
:07:21. > :07:27.the front door, I smelt a burning smell, normally I'd call out, honey
:07:27. > :07:37.I'm home and she replied that she's here, and "oh Dave, ""and I'd hear
:07:37. > :07:50.
:07:50. > :07:55.the baby babbleling away. It was Wait until you have another one. Oh.
:07:55. > :08:02.When Dave's daughter, fraya was three months old his wife stabbed
:08:02. > :08:07.her and then set both herself and baby on fire in their bedroom.
:08:07. > :08:12.Daksha Emson died from her burns three weeks later. She'd left a
:08:12. > :08:22.note. "Dave I'm absolutely convinced now of bad forces being
:08:22. > :08:29.
:08:29. > :08:37.at work here. Our baby has to be protected from these forces... And
:08:37. > :08:46.I'm going to protect her. I love her, she means everything to me.
:08:46. > :08:54.And I'll do whatever I can to protect her from evil" It is only
:08:54. > :09:00.now, 12 years since Daksha Emson's death that Dave can sort ourt her
:09:00. > :09:04.text books, she studied psychiatry, and she was about to be a
:09:04. > :09:10.consultant when she died. But few people knew about her condition.
:09:10. > :09:15.She was afraid of the stigma. The inquiry into her death led to new
:09:15. > :09:19.guidelines in the NHS, for the treatment of staff with mental
:09:19. > :09:26.illness. Dave's writing a book about her story to help other
:09:26. > :09:30.people in similar situations. Primarily, it is to speak to me,
:09:30. > :09:35.speak to brothers and sisters, people that are suffering, fellow
:09:35. > :09:45.mental health workers, people that are suffering with mental health
:09:45. > :09:51.
:09:51. > :10:01.conditions, that you are not alone Shelley Blanchard is about to give
:10:01. > :10:04.
:10:04. > :10:08.birth. Shelley's husband is in the Army, but he is able to come home
:10:09. > :10:14.for a few weeks, and he is worried about what will happen to her after
:10:14. > :10:20.the birth. It is not Baby Blues, is it, it is quite sieve, worst case
:10:20. > :10:27.scenario, I could end up without a wife and child. So yeah, it is
:10:27. > :10:34.worrying, but the fact that we're already, the knowledge that we have
:10:34. > :10:38.enables us to understand or look for any signs of it. And with her
:10:38. > :10:47.network of medical carers, it is unbelieveable the amount of people
:10:47. > :10:57.she's got caring for her. Shelley's labour has gone on for two days,
:10:57. > :11:15.
:11:15. > :11:25.Hello little man. Her teenager son That very first evening she starts
:11:25. > :11:26.
:11:26. > :11:31.her anti-psychotic drugs. How are you coping emotionally? Doing
:11:31. > :11:35.really well. I'm happy to have olive. He's just so gorgeous.
:11:35. > :11:42.Oliver is a week old, Shelley is relaxed and happy with the support
:11:42. > :11:50.she's getting. But Lee is going back to Northern Ireland soon.
:11:50. > :11:55.boy. Hello, Best it is Shelley Blanchard here, I'm aware you're on
:11:56. > :12:02.leave, but I wondered if you could give me a call because I'm feeling
:12:02. > :12:07.unwell at the moment, thank you. Shelley's mood has begun to drop.
:12:07. > :12:16.She's stopped taking the drugs because they make her drowsy, she
:12:16. > :12:21.knows she needs help. That would be enough to get rid of an elephant.
:12:21. > :12:25.It is scary. Especially feeling the way I'm feeling A few weeks later,
:12:25. > :12:34.she's admitted to a special unit in Winchester, where mothers and their
:12:34. > :12:40.babies can be kept safe during treatment. I started getting
:12:40. > :12:46.unpleas isn't thoughts about Oliver. About wanting to hurt him. Dropping
:12:46. > :12:53.him on purpose, and throwing him down the stairs. I was just so
:12:53. > :12:59.frightened, I didn't want to hurt my boy. And I knew somebody had to
:12:59. > :13:08.help me. But the thoughts were getting stronger and more frequent.
:13:08. > :13:14.So, I had to tell somebody. I had to get some help. OK I have your
:13:14. > :13:24.methods here. Will I put them in your hand.
:13:24. > :13:26.
:13:26. > :13:31.Sometimes I feel lost being in here. I feel lonely sometimes. But Lee
:13:31. > :13:34.comes in to see me every day, that's nice. It is nice to have a
:13:35. > :13:43.visitor. Because it breaks up the day a little bit. Otherwise they
:13:43. > :13:48.could be long and drawn out With postpartum psychosis still poorly
:13:48. > :13:53.understood, and frequently misdiagnosed, psychiatristness
:13:53. > :13:59.mental health workers are here to listen to to a woman who has been
:13:59. > :14:04.through it herself. I became psychotic a few days leaving
:14:04. > :14:10.hospital, when late one night, having just fed Finlay, who was
:14:10. > :14:15.still very much in the cast iron grip of feeding routine, I faced
:14:15. > :14:19.his sleeping body down on the bed and my brain snapped. It felt like
:14:19. > :14:24.somebody had flicked a switch in my head. I looked at him and was
:14:24. > :14:29.filled with an urge to kill him. I put my hand around his tiny neck,
:14:29. > :14:37.not strong enough to hold his own head and began to squeeze. I wasn't
:14:37. > :14:42.trying to harm him, I knew I musdont that, but I want to know
:14:42. > :14:48.whether I was capable, and whether it is true or not, I convinced
:14:49. > :14:51.myself I was. Jo, head of maths, became ill after her senged son was
:14:51. > :14:53.born. She'd never suffered mental health problems before and I was
:14:53. > :14:59.terrified her children would be taken away.
:14:59. > :15:05.She decided her only way out was to commit suicide, and take Tom and
:15:05. > :15:09.Finn with her. One day I thought about doing it about smothering the
:15:09. > :15:13.boys while they had their lunch time sleep. I was met particular
:15:13. > :15:18.lus in my thinking, I had to make sure the boys and dog were dead
:15:18. > :15:24.before my own life, because I couldn't survive if they didn't.
:15:24. > :15:32.is fully recovered now. But she's spent more than six months in a
:15:32. > :15:38.secure psychiatric hospital while her husband cared for the boys. Jo
:15:38. > :15:43.feels compelled to raise awareness of the condition, particularly with
:15:43. > :15:51.health workers. Women are dying sixly because they had a baby,
:15:51. > :15:59.which, shouldn't be happening. And, I feel, very strongly that because
:15:59. > :16:06.I came so close to losing my life, that, I am in a position to be able
:16:06. > :16:16.to talk about the extremes of the illness. And a lot of sufferers,
:16:16. > :16:31.
:16:31. > :16:39.Oliver is now five months old and both he and Shelly are doing well.
:16:39. > :16:48.If it wasn't able to go in the unit I think that I probably would have
:16:48. > :16:58.ended up taking an overdose. Possibly killing myself. Because I
:16:58. > :16:59.
:16:59. > :17:05.It is such a dark time. But out of that dark time I've managed to
:17:05. > :17:10.learn a little bit more about missile and I think to come out of
:17:10. > :17:16.it, and - myself and I think to come out of it and feel so happy,
:17:16. > :17:24.I'm actually feeling really well now, I feel I could possibly say I
:17:24. > :17:28.feel fantastic. Well I'm joipd by Jo Lyall who you saw in the report
:17:28. > :17:32.and Dr Nisha Shah a consultant psychiatrist, who runs a service in
:17:32. > :17:36.north London. Thanks very much for talking about this publicly.
:17:36. > :17:42.What do you think mothers and health care professionals most need
:17:42. > :17:49.to know about this? I think they need to know it exists. Because
:17:49. > :17:52.there is so little awareness amongst mothers, well amongst the
:17:52. > :17:58.general public and health professionals. And I think it was
:17:58. > :18:03.very clear the lady who had bipolar, Shelley, they have a team looking
:18:03. > :18:06.out for her. And that doesn't happen for other women. If they
:18:07. > :18:12.haven't an existing mental health problem. Lots and lots of people
:18:13. > :18:18.around me realised something was wrong and said, would say to me or
:18:18. > :18:24.my husband, something is with Jo, my mum said it seems somebody else
:18:24. > :18:28.in inside her body but none of us thought I was ill. Presumably you
:18:28. > :18:32.were told by health care professionals, about physical
:18:32. > :18:37.things that could go wrong about child birth but not mental side?
:18:37. > :18:42.woman is more likely to have a mental health problem, than any
:18:42. > :18:46.physical health problem. It is the biggest health problem that women
:18:46. > :18:51.in the perinatal period are likely to suffer.
:18:51. > :18:55.Dr Nisha Shah, the there remains a stigma with all mental health
:18:55. > :19:01.problems, particularly with child birth and children, you're supposed
:19:01. > :19:06.to be happy, and if you're not it is perhaps more of a stigma? That's
:19:06. > :19:09.right, exactly what Jo is saying, to raise awareness is impeded by
:19:09. > :19:14.people's fear what will happen when they present with a problem, that
:19:14. > :19:19.is out of the range of what is considered to be normal. There's a
:19:19. > :19:23.real anxiety, that we hear about things like baby P, we know about
:19:23. > :19:27.what happens when children are mistreated and all mothers worry
:19:27. > :19:31.about not treating their children properly and being separated by
:19:31. > :19:35.them and that prevents people coming forward. What do you do with
:19:35. > :19:39.health care professionals, saying you have to be aware of it and
:19:39. > :19:46.sensitive to it and you're there to help, not to intervene, and protect
:19:46. > :19:55.the child, but help the mother? think, perinatal health services,
:19:55. > :20:02.that have slowly started growing, since, really the tragic death of
:20:02. > :20:07.Dr Emson in 2000, bring it in their remit. That's what we do, making
:20:07. > :20:10.sure maternity department, at the Whittington, we spend training
:20:10. > :20:15.midwives and obstetricians, making sure everybody knows that mental
:20:15. > :20:19.health problems are very common, that they are very, very treatable,
:20:19. > :20:24.and that there are services, in some place, that exist to try and
:20:24. > :20:28.help people deal with them. Did you feel the stig marks and
:20:28. > :20:35.feel you should lied it? How did it creep up on you, how did you become
:20:35. > :20:39.aware you had to start talking about it? Well, first I hid it for
:20:39. > :20:42.months, because having a baby is supposed to be a joyful time. I
:20:42. > :20:46.started to have delusions I was evil and not supposed to be a
:20:46. > :20:50.mother, how do you tell anybody that, when you believe it so
:20:50. > :20:56.completely that, well, I actually believefy told anybody, the boys
:20:56. > :21:00.would be adopted and I would be put into prison, even though I did
:21:00. > :21:06.nothing wrong. And I just had a moment of clarity, one day, and
:21:06. > :21:11.realised I needed help. This was some months after I'd become ill.
:21:11. > :21:16.What Dr Nisha Shah was saying, was it difficult to ask for help, not
:21:16. > :21:20.because of the stigma, but because the boys might be taken away?
:21:20. > :21:26.was, I had no idea how ill I was. I lost all sense of reality, I went
:21:26. > :21:32.to the GP, and said I made plans to kill myself, the dog and myself, I
:21:32. > :21:38.think I may be ill. That was Monday, by Friday, I was a patient on a
:21:38. > :21:44.psychiatric unit, without my babies. But, it is treatable, that's the
:21:44. > :21:48.whole point? It is, it is not always straightforward. Because
:21:48. > :21:53.we're all individuals, and different treatments work better
:21:53. > :21:58.with different women. And it didn't help I went months before I had any
:21:58. > :22:04.treatment at all. That definitely complicated things a lot. But,
:22:04. > :22:09.there are psychological interventions, medication, and I
:22:09. > :22:14.was treated eventually with ECT, and that was what cured me, and
:22:14. > :22:17.cured my psychosis. But, there will problems with each. Obviously ECT
:22:17. > :22:21.is controversial and there are problems associated with it, but
:22:21. > :22:26.when it works it is successful. Medication, has all sorts of side
:22:26. > :22:32.effects. You could see from the film, that one of them is
:22:32. > :22:37.unprecedented weight gain. And in six months in hospital, I put on
:22:37. > :22:41.five stone. It is extraordinary. And psychological intervention
:22:41. > :22:46.sometimes aren't enough, you need some sort of chemical intervention
:22:46. > :22:50.as well. There's problems with each, but using a combination of them all,
:22:50. > :22:55.it's possible to have a full recovery. We said earlier in the
:22:55. > :22:58.report, that it is treatable, and it is also, sometimes, you can
:22:58. > :23:08.predict it. But sometimes presumably you can't, and it creeps
:23:08. > :23:08.
:23:08. > :23:12.up on people? Yes. Postpartum psychosis is a subtype really. It
:23:13. > :23:22.is found it emxass many things and there's a blurring between Baby
:23:22. > :23:26.Blues, which is not an illness it is something dirve. It is common?
:23:26. > :23:30.50-60% first time mothers will experience that, but that's not
:23:30. > :23:33.what we're concerned about, there's awareness and knowledge, to be able
:23:33. > :23:35.to differentiate babey blues from post-natal depression, post-natal
:23:35. > :23:38.depression from postpartum psychosis which is a different
:23:38. > :23:42.illness, and therefore, does require a different set of
:23:42. > :23:46.treatments. OK, but thank you very much and
:23:46. > :23:52.we'll hear a lot about that. Now, if you want details of
:23:52. > :24:02.organisations, which offer advice and support on postpartum psychosis
:24:02. > :24:15.
:24:15. > :24:19.Now, if the coalition Government stands for one thing it is to
:24:19. > :24:22.improve the economy. A central plank of that is to reduce
:24:22. > :24:26.borrowing, as Opposition leader, David Cameron coin cyst tantly
:24:26. > :24:30.argued you do not borrow your way out of a debt crisis. While one
:24:30. > :24:34.month's borrowing figures are �600 million deficit for July may not
:24:34. > :24:38.demonstrate that everything has gone hay wire, politically it is
:24:38. > :24:41.bad news for the Government and in particular, George Osborne.
:24:41. > :24:45.Newsnight heard rumblings that spending cuts had been considered
:24:46. > :24:51.for the Autumn. We explore the Chancellor's options in a moment.
:24:51. > :24:55.First, David Grossman with the extent of the problem. Very
:24:56. > :25:01.carefully the Chancellor plotted a route out of deficit. Unfortunately,
:25:01. > :25:06.the journey time has already had to be revised up once and now he is in
:25:06. > :25:11.danger of having to do it again. The latest figures show the
:25:11. > :25:17.Government borrowed �600 million last month. That is up 3.4 billion
:25:17. > :25:21.on the same month last year, then there was a surplus of 4.2 billion.
:25:22. > :25:27.Normally, in fact all but two of the 50 years, July has been a
:25:27. > :25:30.banker of the month for the Treasury, and they can expect for
:25:30. > :25:35.surplus because of income and corporate tax receipts. In July
:25:35. > :25:42.this didn't happen. Corporate tax receipts so far has been going
:25:42. > :25:45.slowly, relative to what the RBR is expecting in March. Today we see
:25:46. > :25:49.the fecked of four large installments T reflects the
:25:49. > :25:54.profitable of company, and the July receipts reflect the first payment
:25:54. > :25:59.of profits on 2012, which suggests companies are less profitable this
:25:59. > :26:02.year than was expected. Another factor was the closure of the he
:26:02. > :26:09.will begin gas field, leading to lower than expected revenues from
:26:09. > :26:12.the North Sea. Well they shoal that there are plane challenges for the
:26:12. > :26:15.UK economy. They are difficult figures, but they show how
:26:15. > :26:19.important it is to stick to the plan, to deal responsibly with
:26:19. > :26:24.Britain's debts and not to add more to that. So, if you look at into
:26:24. > :26:27.the figures what you see, driving them, I think, is a decrease in tax
:26:27. > :26:31.receipt, mainly corporation tax, with an interesting factor in the
:26:31. > :26:35.North Sea. As I say, what the figures really show is the
:26:35. > :26:39.importance of sticking to the plan this Government has set out.
:26:39. > :26:43.Treasury has a feeling of great solidity about it, but, when it
:26:43. > :26:48.comes to the numbers upon which it bases Government policy, well, a
:26:48. > :26:52.little more spongey. It is a noteable feature of this recession
:26:53. > :27:01.that almost every set of Government projections, with time, begins to
:27:01. > :27:04.look like the work of a wild-eyed optimist. For example, back in June,
:27:04. > :27:07.2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast for the
:27:07. > :27:13.current year, we'd been borrowing �89 billion. That was revised in
:27:13. > :27:19.March, 2011, to �101 billion and March 2012, the forecast had gone
:27:19. > :27:24.up again, to �120 billion. And that could still be optimism, because
:27:25. > :27:29.the first three months of this year, we're �10 billion behind where we
:27:29. > :27:36.should be. Suggesting to some, that we could be looking at a total
:27:36. > :27:40.deficit of a year, of �1670 billion. Or about 80% higher than the 2010
:27:40. > :27:44.initial forecast. Well these are serious figures, and
:27:44. > :27:48.they suggest that the central goal of George Osborne to reduce the
:27:48. > :27:53.deficit, has not just not happened, but going the wrong way, he's
:27:53. > :27:58.adding to the deficit, these borrowing figures are going higher,
:27:58. > :28:00.and it is because he's driven us back in recession, and we have such
:28:00. > :28:04.expensive costs of welfare benefits and keeping people on the dole
:28:04. > :28:07.rather than seeing them in work and paying back into the xeck ker. It
:28:07. > :28:13.is a failure of George Osborne's planning and he needs to change
:28:13. > :28:17.course right now. So, what happens now? In Thais economic times, the
:28:17. > :28:21.political rumour mill is in overdrive. A little while back it
:28:21. > :28:26.was George Osborne's going to lose his job. Now, Newsnight hearse
:28:26. > :28:30.rumblings that the Treasury has ordered new Government cuts, every
:28:30. > :28:35.department to do their share for an emergency budget statement in the
:28:35. > :28:40.Autumn. That may turn out to be nonsense, but what is true, is that
:28:40. > :28:44.the politics of this get harder and harder for the Government. Some
:28:44. > :28:49.Conservatives for example, point out that the Chancellor hasn't even
:28:49. > :28:53.started down the road of cutting Increased.
:28:53. > :28:57.There have been individual areas where there have been difficult and
:28:57. > :29:01.painful cuts. But overall, there's been a big expansion of public
:29:01. > :29:04.spending in cash terms and increase ever are I year in real terms. We
:29:04. > :29:08.have to accept for a bit we can't have increaseness spending and we
:29:08. > :29:12.have to try and keep it under better control and renew our attack
:29:12. > :29:16.upon the costs of Government itself, because that would be the most
:29:16. > :29:21.popular way of doing it. Government is deliberately pursuing policies
:29:21. > :29:26.raising energy costs for example, it is watered down the proposals
:29:26. > :29:31.forever planning liberal sedation, it is not moving rapidly as far as
:29:31. > :29:35.Labour market is concerned, it imposed a lot of New Labour market
:29:35. > :29:41.regulation upon employers, and yes it does need to take a closer look
:29:41. > :29:46.at the policies and reverse them. So, how much longer will the jourpy
:29:46. > :29:52.time wack to budget surplus be? And crucially is the Chancellor going
:29:52. > :29:56.to have to step on the accelerator. David Grossman, well no-one from
:29:56. > :30:05.the Treasury team was available to come on the programme tonight. We
:30:05. > :30:15.did ask. We could have a couple of fine economic minds with us. Port
:30:15. > :30:21.
:30:21. > :30:27.port port and - portsport ports, is worrying, 26% ahead of where we
:30:28. > :30:34.thought we'd be. It is back in deficit in 2009. It could be a
:30:34. > :30:39.blip? It is a big blip though. Actually a lot of damage being done.
:30:39. > :30:43.All kinds of things are not working out as hoped. Basically the
:30:43. > :30:48.Chancellor started off as Government betting on growth, and
:30:48. > :30:53.no actual cuts to get rid of the deficit. The growth was never
:30:53. > :30:57.likely to happen, hasn't happened, and so we just stacking up more and
:30:57. > :31:02.more debt. The issue which nobody is very comfortable about is how
:31:02. > :31:05.long can we stack that debt up. What do you make of the figures
:31:05. > :31:10.think as the Treasury secretary said, they're volatile from month
:31:10. > :31:14.to month. The underlying picture is this is what you would expect when
:31:14. > :31:19.the economy is flat. We have had essentially no growth for the last
:31:19. > :31:24.18 months. Where I would differ with John, is this that is at least,
:31:24. > :31:28.in part a direct result of over rapid fiscal consolidation,
:31:28. > :31:31.unnecessary cuts to the deficit too quickly, have actually in one of
:31:31. > :31:37.the reasons why we have no growth, and that in turn, meant the deficit
:31:37. > :31:40.hasn't come down as quickly as the Chancellor hoped. Let's look at
:31:40. > :31:43.simplistic terms, the two possibilities is one is, is there
:31:43. > :31:46.scope, because borrowing costs are low, to borrow more and have a big
:31:46. > :31:52.stimulus, do you think that would work? That's clearly possible.
:31:52. > :31:56.Remember, that. Advisable? Both, one thing we do know is when we
:31:56. > :32:00.listen to what onsays, and what the Treasury Minister say, is that two
:32:01. > :32:04.years ago, they said if we went on borrowing as we were, interest
:32:04. > :32:10.rates would soar, the credit agencies would down grade us, we
:32:10. > :32:15.would have to call in IMF, what happened? We're now borrowing, more,
:32:15. > :32:18.than was forecast before the Chancellor introduced figurecal
:32:18. > :32:22.consolidation programme. Not less but more. What happened? Well,
:32:22. > :32:25.interest rates, compared to where they are two years, are
:32:25. > :32:32.considerably lower than they were divo years ago. We can afford to
:32:32. > :32:37.borrow more, and we should. I don't disagree with you. The reality is
:32:37. > :32:40.we don't know, when foreign investors, in gilts will panic. We
:32:40. > :32:46.don't know when interest rates go out of control. We've tested all
:32:46. > :32:50.kinds of things in the economy, with masses of quantity Tateive
:32:50. > :32:54.easing, very lose credit, nobody knows where that ends, accept it
:32:54. > :32:59.must end in higher interest rates, and it must end in inflation. Maybe
:32:59. > :33:03.years away, and you may be right in a year or two, you can get away
:33:03. > :33:08.with spending and trying to stimulate the way out of it. If you
:33:08. > :33:13.do that, remember what you're doing is immoral. You are living better
:33:13. > :33:18.today at the expense of the people who follow us. So it may give rise
:33:18. > :33:22.to less pain in the short-term. What it does is not good for the
:33:22. > :33:26.next generation. I think, quite wrong actually. Borrowing now is
:33:26. > :33:30.not borrowing from our children. We borrow from ourselves, debt is
:33:30. > :33:34.finance now, you can't borrow from your unborn children. What we would
:33:35. > :33:38.do now by borrowing is enable us to invest in things, and be good for
:33:38. > :33:42.your children, getting jobs for young people, building roads and
:33:42. > :33:46.bridges and schools. Great if the money is used for, but it is not
:33:46. > :33:52.always used for such useful things. Absolutely you're borrowing from
:33:52. > :33:56.your kids, you have no intention repaying the principle and interest,
:33:56. > :34:02.they will. Onwhat is the alternative Basically, carrying on
:34:02. > :34:05.as we are, isn't going to cut it. The mudling through, isn't going to
:34:05. > :34:09.achieve what the Conservatives need to do by the next election, get
:34:09. > :34:14.signs of growth in the economy, and they're going to either lurch in
:34:14. > :34:19.one of two directions - either to go for more stimulus, that side of
:34:19. > :34:25.the table. Or this side, the other way the Vicky Redwood approach,
:34:25. > :34:30.which is to actually cut, expenditure, to actually take more
:34:30. > :34:35.pain short-term, in return for getting a better economy, medium to
:34:35. > :34:41.long-term. It is done places on earth, successfully, even on the UK,
:34:41. > :34:45.on previous cycles. The state is too large, the state, the size it
:34:45. > :34:49.is, means we have low growth baked in. If the Chancellor were to
:34:49. > :34:56.decide to go down the route T would take a degree of political courage?
:34:56. > :35:00.A lot of courage. He is according to an ITV poll tonight, 16%
:35:00. > :35:04.effectively saying he is he's doing OK. It is difficult when you are in
:35:04. > :35:10.the bigger political hole to take those strong economic decisions and
:35:11. > :35:16.I know you are disagree. Maybe take the view, it can't get much worse,
:35:16. > :35:22.he might as well take a go. Previous recessionss, I was working
:35:22. > :35:26.for a Conservative Chancellor in the Treasury, in 1992, and Norman
:35:27. > :35:31.Lamont took the right decision, he said we need to make savings and
:35:31. > :35:37.cut spending, and raise taxes to get the Budget back to BA but we're
:35:37. > :35:44.not going to do it now, until the economy starts recovering. The
:35:44. > :35:48.fiscal tighting then didn't begin until 1994, until it was on an
:35:48. > :35:54.upward trajectory. Basic economics of the same period, during the 90s,
:35:54. > :36:00.we took 7% out of the size of the state and the state grew at 3% for
:36:00. > :36:04.ten years, boy would that be an outcome now. Now the Republican
:36:04. > :36:09.presidential candidate, Mitt Romney called on one of his own Senate
:36:09. > :36:13.candidate to pull out of the race in a row over race. Todd Akin say
:36:13. > :36:20.the women who are victims "legitimate rape" could not get
:36:20. > :36:24.pregnant. What takes Congressman, Todd Akin away from challenged from
:36:24. > :36:29.basic biology, is the Democratic party seized on the comments and
:36:29. > :36:34.used them to attack Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on attitude to abortion.
:36:34. > :36:39.Congressman, Akin's latest ad campaign is called "forgiveness.
:36:39. > :36:45.I'm Todd Akin and I afrof this message. Rape is an evil act, I use
:36:45. > :36:52.the wrong words in the wrong way and I apologise. Todd Akin may be
:36:52. > :36:55.contrite but he is not stepping down as candidate from mass youry,
:36:55. > :37:01.despite pressure from fellow Republicans, so Democrats are
:37:01. > :37:08.piling in. Views expressed were offensive, rape is rape, and the
:37:08. > :37:13.idea that we should be persing and qualifying, and slicing what types
:37:13. > :37:17.of rape we're talking about, doesn't make sense to the American
:37:17. > :37:22.people. And certainly doesn't make sense to me. Since the 196 0s,
:37:22. > :37:27.abortion has been one of the litmus test issues in America's culture
:37:27. > :37:30.wars. Congressman, Akin is so- called pro-life. He was asked if he
:37:30. > :37:34.opposes abortions, even in cases where the woman gets pregnant
:37:34. > :37:38.through rape This is what he said. First of all, what I understand
:37:38. > :37:42.from doctors, that's really rare, if it is a legitimate rape the
:37:42. > :37:46.female body has ways to shut that whole thing down. President Obama
:37:47. > :37:49.who holds a significant lead of Mitt Romney over women voters,
:37:49. > :37:54.seized the opportunity to draw attention to the wider Republicans
:37:54. > :37:58.positions on social issues. Romney's advice presidential
:37:58. > :38:05.running mate, Paul Ryan is flatly against legal abortion. Even for
:38:05. > :38:09.rape or incest. Accept where the woman's life is at stake.
:38:09. > :38:14.Congressman Ryan worked with Todd Akin in Washington to narrow the
:38:14. > :38:18.definition of rape, so the state would pay for fewer abortions. Mitt
:38:18. > :38:22.Romney condemned Akin's comments and says, he does support legal
:38:22. > :38:28.abortion for women who have been raped. I can't defend what he said.
:38:28. > :38:33.I can't defend him. One reason support for Romney has been tepid
:38:33. > :38:35.amongst Conservatives, is his pro- choice past. And he is seen by
:38:35. > :38:40.critics as Governor Flip-Flop. believe abortion should be safe and
:38:40. > :38:46.legal in this country, I have since the time that my mum took that
:38:46. > :38:51.position when she ran in 1907s as a Senate candidate. I since since
:38:51. > :38:55.this has been law for 20 years, I sustain and support t I sustain and
:38:56. > :39:00.support that, of a right of a woman to make that choice. In 2012,
:39:00. > :39:09.Romney says his thinking has evolved, and as a Pro-Life
:39:09. > :39:13.President he would nominate Supreme Court justices who overturn Roe
:39:13. > :39:17.versus Wade. If polls indicate majority of Americans support legal
:39:17. > :39:22.aborgs, including the independent and moderate Republican voters, is
:39:22. > :39:27.it really an issue that can help win or lose a presidential
:39:28. > :39:34.election? Joining me now from Washington is, Craig Ferguson
:39:34. > :39:41.director of Republican majority for choice, and Lila Rose founder of
:39:41. > :39:46.life action. What do you think should happen to Todd Akin? I think
:39:46. > :39:49.he should step down, that the number pro-choice and anti-choice
:39:49. > :39:54.Republicans in are leadership and party have called for him to step
:39:54. > :40:01.down, and I think it is time for him to take that lead. What do you
:40:01. > :40:05.make of him, step down, and get out of it, because he is peopleersing?
:40:05. > :40:10.Representative Akin apologiseds the comments that were clearly using
:40:10. > :40:14.poor words, choice words were poor. What he was saying, and that's the
:40:14. > :40:19.fact if it is conceived in rape, does not warrant the death penalty
:40:19. > :40:24.of a abortion, and should not be killed because of the crimes of the
:40:24. > :40:28.father, rape is a horrible thing, victims should be fought for and
:40:28. > :40:32.protected but rapists should be held accountable of the law and not
:40:32. > :40:37.the child. That's the position that Todd Akin was taking. It is
:40:37. > :40:41.completely oppose today what his opponents, Claire McCaskill stands
:40:41. > :40:49.for, which is funding of the biggest abortion chain and she
:40:49. > :40:54.voted against a law that would stop, sexual predators were taking minors
:40:54. > :40:59.across state lines which would hurt little girls of statutory rape.
:40:59. > :41:02.some of that, would chime very much with what Paul Ryan has been saying,
:41:02. > :41:07.the vice presidential hopeful for your party, no abortion, even if
:41:07. > :41:12.the case of rape or incest, what do you think of that? We completely
:41:12. > :41:17.oppose that position, the majority of Americans and Republicans oppose
:41:17. > :41:22.that position, even the Romney/ Ryan ticket has come out to say, to
:41:22. > :41:27.say there should be exceptions in the case of rape and incest. The
:41:27. > :41:31.problem is he apologised for the words he used not the policy he is
:41:31. > :41:36.pushing. It is a policy not supported by majority of
:41:36. > :41:41.Republicans and Americans and it is akin to saying, that there's, we
:41:41. > :41:47.need to punish the victim, the perpetrator of the crime and take
:41:47. > :41:52.care of the baby, but the woman in the middle which has the crime upon
:41:52. > :41:58.her is a vessel. It is a crime committed against a woman, it is a
:41:58. > :42:03.violent and sexual crime, she needs medical resource available to her.
:42:03. > :42:09.It should not be inputing our position and opinion in controlling
:42:09. > :42:14.that position. I Can't agree more, but having investigated the biggest
:42:14. > :42:22.abortion pyramid and cover up with little girls with secret abortions,
:42:22. > :42:26.across the board.... I know that's an important issue in the United
:42:26. > :42:31.States, but the important issue for the people in the world is what
:42:31. > :42:36.impact if any this will have on the presidential race. I'm wondering
:42:36. > :42:40.whether you feel, in Mitt Romney given his previous record, actually
:42:40. > :42:45.he doesn't care very much about the issue but he has Paul Ryan on the
:42:45. > :42:49.ticket, because people like you will be energiseed, so Mitt Romney
:42:49. > :42:53.is Governor Flip-Flop? We need to get past the sound bites and look
:42:53. > :42:57.at the issue, we are talking about the fundamental right to life,
:42:57. > :43:00.which is the right to life for all people. If we can't protect that,
:43:00. > :43:07.and don't have politicians protecting that, if our President
:43:07. > :43:11.Obama is the most historic. think Mitt Romney is the man to
:43:11. > :43:21.protect it? We need him to be President, because he will apoint
:43:21. > :43:21.
:43:21. > :43:25.for life judges and stop funding the biggest abortion chain. Do you
:43:25. > :43:29.think there are people within the Republican Party, who run for
:43:29. > :43:33.office, but don't like to say they're pro-choice because it will
:43:33. > :43:37.run them into problems. Frankly, some politicians, are lying on the
:43:37. > :43:43.issue? Our party has created a system that makes it very difficult
:43:43. > :43:46.for Republicans to get through a primary system who are pro-choice.
:43:46. > :43:50.Our system is prochoice organisation is not the party
:43:50. > :43:56.should be pro-choice entirely and promote a platform because that
:43:56. > :44:00.doesn't represent the make-up of a party or party calling for a
:44:00. > :44:05.constitutional ban on abortions with no exceptions. We should not
:44:05. > :44:10.put this front and centre, as they did today, promoting this as one of
:44:10. > :44:16.the top priorities of our country, and applauding we're pushing a
:44:16. > :44:20.human life amendment with no exceptions. I wanted to know if it
:44:20. > :44:23.put off people who are fiscal Conservatives for voting the
:44:23. > :44:27.Republican Party because of the issue, does it put people off?
:44:27. > :44:32.Tifplt detracts from a the strongest message we as rep
:44:32. > :44:37.Republicans have which is the fiscal issue. We need to stand for
:44:37. > :44:40.human rights, that's the life to right, Americans are listening,
:44:40. > :44:43.young people are listening and women, we care about the right to
:44:44. > :44:48.life and protecting women, protecting young girls who are
:44:48. > :44:53.victims of rape and unborn children who deserve to be protected as well.
:44:53. > :44:58.And deserve their fundamental right to life to be protected that's why
:44:58. > :45:08.we're standing for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Planed parenthood denies
:45:08. > :45:16.
:45:16. > :45:25.some alkpwaigss that was made Prince Harry on front of The
:45:25. > :45:33.Telegraph. Do it now and do it now, tells Osborne chefs. FT has the big
:45:33. > :45:43.business story about glon core bot wot and finally the Daily Mail has
:45:43. > :45:50.
:45:50. > :46:00.wot and finally the Daily Mail has Well that's all from Newsnight for
:46:00. > :46:28.
:46:28. > :46:33.tonight. Kirsty has much more Hello. I've got showers in the
:46:33. > :46:36.forecast again for tomorrow but probably not as heavy or wrieed
:46:36. > :46:40.spread and there will be sunshine in diveen. Southern and eastern
:46:40. > :46:44.part could stay largely cry. Heavy showers for England and Northern
:46:45. > :46:49.Ireland and one or two sharp ones across the Midlands in the aifpb as
:46:49. > :46:53.well. You will notice a breeze, change from recent days, but
:46:53. > :46:58.temperatures not too bad. 21 degrees, that's a good average,
:46:58. > :47:02.high teens for the west, but good weather on the beaches for the
:47:02. > :47:06.south-west of England and South Wales too.
:47:06. > :47:10.Sharp showers of possibility across North Wales. And Northern Ireland
:47:10. > :47:14.too, but the change from today, showers will be moving smartly, so
:47:14. > :47:16.you get sunshine, shower, and then it will move off. Showers for
:47:16. > :47:20.western Scotland, many eastern parts of Scotland, could escape
:47:20. > :47:25.them through the afternoon, and see sunshine, but a brisk breeze
:47:25. > :47:30.blowing in here as well. Sunny intervals and showers, not many of