:00:13. > :00:19.Britain in 2012 a country so expensive that even when parents do
:00:19. > :00:23.work, their children can still go without. Politicians talk of hard
:00:23. > :00:31.working Britain, but what is it like when your parents have to work
:00:31. > :00:35.too hard. My dad works two jobs. But I don't get to see him much,
:00:35. > :00:39.when he's off he does carpets, I feel left out, because I really
:00:40. > :00:43.love my dad. We ask the former Labour
:00:43. > :00:46.communications director, who has just launched a Save the Children
:00:46. > :00:52.campaign in this country, a single mother, the Education Committee
:00:52. > :00:56.chair, and the man from the at this tank founded by Iain Duncan Smith.
:00:56. > :00:59.They are back from the beaches, so it is time for the eurocrisis to
:00:59. > :01:04.resume. Tomorrow the head of the European Central Bank hopes to stop
:01:04. > :01:08.the anxiety. What does the man who was President Obama's chief
:01:08. > :01:12.financial adviser think he has to say. Come to that, how does he rate
:01:12. > :01:16.George Osborne? Also tonight, Newsnight uncovers
:01:16. > :01:21.new evidence suggesting melting Arctic ice will have a dramatic
:01:21. > :01:26.effect on our climate. Is now the time to kick back, relax, and learn
:01:26. > :01:32.to love cloudy Augusts. The summer area of ice has already gone down
:01:32. > :01:36.from eight to four million square kilometres, as it collapses we will
:01:36. > :01:42.lose another four million. Four million square kilometres is about
:01:42. > :01:52.1% of the surface area of the earth. The new leader of the Green Party,
:01:52. > :01:52.
:01:52. > :01:56.and a prominent climate change sceptic, are both here.
:01:56. > :02:01.You have heard of Save the Children, you may have given to one of their
:02:01. > :02:05.appeals, to help suffering children overseas. Yet now, for the first
:02:05. > :02:08.time, this affluent society's charity, is running a campaign
:02:09. > :02:13.about deprived children in this country. Their conclusions are
:02:13. > :02:17.troubling. They say that in the poorest households, nearly two
:02:17. > :02:21.thirds of parents say they have cut back on food. Over a quarter have
:02:21. > :02:24.gone without meals, and a fifth say their children have gone without
:02:24. > :02:28.new shoes, when they have needed them. We are going to talk about
:02:28. > :02:32.why it is happening, and what we maybe can do about it. First, we
:02:32. > :02:42.ought to hear from some children themselves, all of them in families
:02:42. > :02:44.
:02:44. > :02:51.struggling in the downturn. I'm Andrew, I'm 12 years old. I
:02:51. > :02:57.like to be a marine biologist. I want to be people that go around
:02:57. > :03:05.the world discovering art facts of Diana And Actaeon saurs, an
:03:05. > :03:10.archaeologist, a scientist and a professional football player --
:03:10. > :03:15.dinosaurs, and an archaeologist, a scientist and a professional
:03:15. > :03:18.football player, I can't be all three, I will be too fired. Once we
:03:18. > :03:26.were playing football on a field, and there was a gang on there with
:03:26. > :03:32.a gun. We heard shots fired. The park, a lad got killed outside
:03:32. > :03:42.there, and was dumped on our street. I had to witness him trying to be
:03:42. > :03:42.
:03:42. > :03:50.revived. Snails. Another brick. volunteer in a youth project, and
:03:50. > :03:58.we come up here and dig out all the weeds. We got rid of 12 tonnes of
:03:58. > :04:02.rubbish. We plant flowers. We are making it so it is like a nature
:04:03. > :04:12.trail, you can go down and pick berries, and look at the nice
:04:13. > :04:16.flowers. We were struggling to pay bills, and me dad lost his job, and
:04:16. > :04:23.his contract, so they were struggling, we had to live with our
:04:23. > :04:29.nan for a bit. And then my dad got another job, two jobs, and started
:04:29. > :04:34.working with that. Me mum helped as well. Me mum, she will miss out on
:04:34. > :04:42.a new pair of shoes, to get us uniforms, or a bit more expensive
:04:42. > :04:52.stuff, clothes and that. Or she will get a cheaper type of food to
:04:52. > :05:01.feed us. When she can't afford to get and pay bills, she will get
:05:01. > :05:11.dead stressed and be worried about it. Found a worm. Hey there little
:05:11. > :05:12.
:05:12. > :05:17.guy. He's trying to eat my finger. My dad works, two jobs. Four nights,
:05:17. > :05:24.two nights, two days. But I don't really get to see him much, because
:05:24. > :05:34.when he's off, he does carpet, and I feel left out, because I really
:05:34. > :05:48.
:05:48. > :05:57.love my dad. REPORTER: Would you I'm 13 years old. I'm 12, my name
:05:57. > :06:03.is Precious. I would like to be either a medical doctor, or an
:06:03. > :06:12.economist. I like maths, and I'm good with my numbers. I either want
:06:12. > :06:16.to be a lawyer, or study medicine. I like my free school meals because
:06:16. > :06:20.they are good, and they help. Even though I'm happy for it. Sometimes
:06:20. > :06:25.the food is costly, which is not even nice, there might be a
:06:25. > :06:29.sandwich which is �1.80, and you only have �2 on your dinner ticket,
:06:29. > :06:39.you won't have anything to buy anything else. Sometimes it fills
:06:39. > :06:41.
:06:41. > :06:48.me up, sometimes it doesn't. chips fill you up, they are cheaper,
:06:48. > :06:55.if you were to go to a supermarket and buy a pack of fruit or
:06:55. > :07:01.something, which I don't tend to do, they are more expensive. I like
:07:01. > :07:05.strawberries, I like mangos and pomegranates. Say there was one
:07:05. > :07:09.mango for �1, you may think to yourself, what is the point of
:07:09. > :07:17.buying that one mango, and you can have a pack of chips that will fill
:07:17. > :07:25.you up even more. We normally do a cake stall to raise money for us.
:07:26. > :07:31.We make fairy cakes. You you get extra money so you can spend it on
:07:31. > :07:37.stuff you like. We normally do it with our youth groups too. That's
:07:37. > :07:41.not funny! We just want to show other children on the road that
:07:41. > :07:51.there is more to do than wasting your time being silly on the road,
:07:51. > :07:51.
:07:51. > :07:57.creating gangs. School uniform is very expensive. My school uniform
:07:57. > :08:02.costs �380 just for me. That wasn't including any of my white T-shirts,
:08:02. > :08:08.my school shoes, my bag or anything, just main stuff like the jumper and
:08:08. > :08:13.the blazer and the skirt. My school uniform was really expensive, it
:08:13. > :08:20.was twice as much as her's. I only got one blazer, because I had to
:08:20. > :08:24.get a big-sized blazer to last me quite long. We are privileged, when
:08:24. > :08:29.you look across the road to the other houses, which are more posh.
:08:29. > :08:33.Then, on our house some people may judge it from the outside, they
:08:33. > :08:41.might say on the outside it looks bad, on the inside it is actually
:08:42. > :08:51.nice. We have never been all together on holiday. We went to
:08:52. > :08:59.
:08:59. > :09:08.Brighton. But we didn't stay there, I am eight years old. I like street
:09:08. > :09:15.dance. I want to be a dancer. Mummy doesn't have enough money to buy
:09:15. > :09:25.clothes sometimes. I get clothes off other people. Clothes that
:09:25. > :09:26.
:09:26. > :09:32.haven't been used, and some clothes that they have worn. I got to baton
:09:32. > :09:36.swirling, swimming and brownies, I like all of them. Mummy knows one
:09:36. > :09:43.of the brownie leaders, and the brownie leader says she doesn't
:09:43. > :09:49.have to pay for the badges. If I won lods loads of money, I would
:09:49. > :09:54.buy loads of presents for my friends for their birthdays, and
:09:54. > :10:02.buy loads and loads and loads and loads of presents for mummy on her
:10:02. > :10:09.birthday. Sometimes I like to go out for a meal, but I know mum
:10:09. > :10:14.doesn't have enough money. She has to spend loads of money on food.
:10:15. > :10:21.She feeds us before her, because she wants to make us happy. She
:10:21. > :10:31.gives us nice things, and doesn't eat her breakfast. She's hungry.
:10:31. > :10:38.
:10:38. > :10:42.My mum always says to me, even universities cost that much, I will
:10:42. > :10:52.still go, even if it costs millions of poupbtdz, I will still go. She
:10:52. > :10:58.
:10:58. > :11:03.wants me to go to university, I do too. I I want to go to university,
:11:03. > :11:11.because education means a better life. I want to go to university. I
:11:11. > :11:17.do want to, because we're struggling to pay the bills. It's
:11:17. > :11:21.like �10,000. I have been saving up quite a bit of money from birthdays
:11:21. > :11:29.and things like that. So I have got a head start of getting to
:11:29. > :11:34.university. Well, before we talk about some of the issues in that
:11:34. > :11:38.film. Our political correspondent is here. To explain how many
:11:38. > :11:42.children we are talking about, and what we actually mean by children
:11:42. > :11:47.living in poverty. David. You might think it is an easy thing
:11:47. > :11:50.to measure child poverty, and you might point to factors like someone
:11:50. > :11:54.not having anywhere to live, being undernourished, having inadequate
:11:54. > :11:59.clothing. That is certainly the measures that were used by 19th
:11:59. > :12:02.century social campaigner, and mercifully, on those measure, there
:12:02. > :12:07.is ininfinitely less poverty in Britain than there was 200 years
:12:07. > :12:11.ago. Job done. Well, not so fast, in recent decades, policy makers
:12:11. > :12:17.and campaigner, have settled on a different measure, relative poverty.
:12:17. > :12:20.How well off someone is in relation to everyone else. The most common
:12:20. > :12:24.measure of child poverty, favoured by the last Government, is the
:12:24. > :12:29.number of children living in households whose income is less
:12:29. > :12:33.than 60% of median, or middle income. In 2011, that was �419 a
:12:33. > :12:38.week. The Labour Government set a target of eliminating child poverty
:12:38. > :12:44.by 2020. And by 2010, they enshrined that in law. And here's
:12:44. > :12:50.the good news. Child poverty has fallen, in the past few years. Most
:12:50. > :12:54.markedly in 2010/2011, that is not because poorer families have got
:12:54. > :13:01.richer, but everyone else has been getting poorer quicker. Leading to
:13:01. > :13:03.a reduction in the median income, from �432 a week, to �419. The Work
:13:03. > :13:07.and Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, has described this as
:13:07. > :13:12.perverse, that when times are good we get more poor people, and when
:13:12. > :13:17.times are bad we get fewer. He notes that by this way of thinking,
:13:17. > :13:21.the simplest way of reducing child poverty, is to collapse the economy.
:13:21. > :13:24.The criticism of the Labour years is that ministers fixated on an
:13:24. > :13:28.abitary line, and they spent billions on moving people from a
:13:29. > :13:32.few pound under the line, to a few pounds over it, without tackling
:13:33. > :13:37.the causes of poverty right at the bottom. Like unemployment, family
:13:37. > :13:39.breakdown, and addiction. The current Government says it is
:13:39. > :13:46.absolutely committed to tackling child poverty, it is just we have
:13:46. > :13:50.to get a whole lot better at measuring it. With us is Justin
:13:50. > :13:54.Forsyth, the chief executive of Save the Children, and former
:13:54. > :13:58.adviser to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. Tracey Nugent, a lone parent
:13:58. > :14:02.from Glasgow. The Conservative MP, Graham Stuart, chair of the
:14:02. > :14:05.Education Select Committee, and Christian Guy, from the Centre for
:14:05. > :14:15.Social Justice, founded by the welfare secretary, Iain Duncan
:14:15. > :14:16.
:14:16. > :14:21.Smith. What is it like to bring up a child who is not only poor, but
:14:22. > :14:26.aware of the circumstances? intensifies the stress, which would
:14:26. > :14:30.then intensify his stress. He was originally, for a long, long time,
:14:30. > :14:36.Adam was my carer, because I couldn't handle the issues I was
:14:36. > :14:43.having to deal with. And now, that I'm out earning, I think a lot of
:14:43. > :14:48.people think, they have on the rose tinted glasses, thinking I'm OK now.
:14:48. > :14:51.Not taking into consideration the amount of debts that we accrued.
:14:51. > :14:56.That we are now paying back. are no better off, despite the fact
:14:56. > :15:00.you are working? No. Mentally, my mental health, and the fact that
:15:00. > :15:03.I'm getting up and going out to work every morning, that is
:15:03. > :15:06.absolutely fantastic. However, when I come home at night, the same
:15:06. > :15:10.financial issues are still sitting there. I'm very, very aware, over
:15:11. > :15:14.the fact, that if I'm not dealing with them properly, it will have a
:15:14. > :15:18.knock-on effect to my child, who is then going to adopt those
:15:18. > :15:22.behaviours, and perhaps think it is OK not to earn a great wage, not to
:15:22. > :15:27.follow their ambition, and not to better themselves. He's growing up
:15:27. > :15:37.in a world which he sees shiny, glistening attractive things
:15:37. > :15:38.
:15:38. > :15:42.daingled in front of him all the time? Absolutely. The area we come
:15:42. > :15:47.from, there are very few lone parents, they are women. In the
:15:47. > :15:51.area we have, people have a mum and dad, two or three bedroom, a front
:15:51. > :15:55.door, back door garden. Adam and I are currently sharing a bedroom. My
:15:55. > :16:01.kitchen is in the living room. The only reason we can heat our house
:16:01. > :16:04.at this minute, because I got a grant. Are you aware that there are
:16:04. > :16:08.fewer people living in poverty in this country than there were, does
:16:08. > :16:12.it feel like that to you? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. I
:16:12. > :16:17.come from a background where my mum and dad instilled in me that you
:16:17. > :16:23.must have a very good and strong work ethic. Unfortunately, because
:16:23. > :16:27.of the circumstances that I'm in, and I can't claw myself out of,
:16:27. > :16:30.he's going to think that's OK. you surprised when you started
:16:30. > :16:33.looking into this situation, in this country? I think we were
:16:33. > :16:41.surprised. Because I think what we have heard from children, and
:16:41. > :16:44.parents, and we saw in your films, is so many children aren't only
:16:44. > :16:48.eating properly or getting a winter coat, but the stress that goes with
:16:48. > :16:52.that. That took us most by surprise. What is happening to families, as
:16:52. > :16:56.Tracey as said, is a combination of factors that have come together.
:16:56. > :16:59.High energy prices are a big factor, unemployment, cuts in benefits,
:16:59. > :17:03.high food prices, there is that perfect storm, that is really
:17:03. > :17:06.affecting families, that is what makes it really hard. What people
:17:06. > :17:10.don't realise, because they have this caricature in their head, that
:17:10. > :17:16.most people that are poor in families are undeserving, they are
:17:16. > :17:20.drug addicts and dropouts, but actually 61% of families are
:17:20. > :17:24.actually working, where children are poor. They are striving to get
:17:24. > :17:28.out of poverty, and they need a bit of a helping hand. Is there a
:17:28. > :17:31.solution? I think there is, it doesn't cost the earth either. One
:17:31. > :17:35.of the biggest factor, and Tracey knows this full well, is childcare.
:17:35. > :17:39.It is a huge factor, actually being able to afford to go into work, and
:17:39. > :17:43.earn an income. That saves the Government money if you are in work.
:17:43. > :17:47.So the taxpayer pays this? What we have had is a cut in childcare
:17:47. > :17:51.support for the poorest families, it is a tiny investment. You would
:17:51. > :17:54.help a million children, with a �400 million investment. That would
:17:54. > :17:59.help then get them into work and would mean less benefits and save
:17:59. > :18:02.money longer term. Does that make sense to you? About childcare or
:18:02. > :18:07.the general debate. The solution? On childcare I think there is a
:18:07. > :18:10.major problem with childcare, I'm not convinced that more tax-payers'
:18:10. > :18:14.money to subsidise the inflated costs of childcare is quite the
:18:14. > :18:20.answer. There are things we can do with childcare to flood the market,
:18:20. > :18:23.make it easier to train as registered child minders, look at
:18:23. > :18:27.wrap-around school childcare. By flooding the market will child
:18:27. > :18:31.cautious we will reduce the childcare costs, and Government
:18:31. > :18:35.shouldn't keep subsidising that. Childcare is one part of the
:18:35. > :18:38.problem. You must be scandalised by this, when you hear the moving
:18:38. > :18:42.stories of the children, talking about what it is like, they have
:18:42. > :18:45.got working parents, who have been told get a job and you can get
:18:45. > :18:48.yourselves out of poverty, and it isn't happening. They are full of
:18:48. > :18:52.dreams and aspirations and hopes and ambitions, I don't know whether
:18:52. > :18:56.they will be realised, I hope they are? I do too, we have been at the,
:18:56. > :18:59.CSJ, all over the country listening to families like these. The
:19:00. > :19:03.interesting thing tonight is what we see as a an aspiration, hope and
:19:03. > :19:08.belief in the power of work, even though it is difficult, work is
:19:08. > :19:11.still what people pursue. What is the alternative to work if you want
:19:11. > :19:15.to lift yourself out of poverty and be self-reliant. There is no
:19:15. > :19:18.alternative. It is tough right now, but work is the surest route out of
:19:18. > :19:23.poverty. There is no doubt about that. Do you agree with that?
:19:23. > :19:27.Absolutely. The other thing we saw in the film, from Precious and
:19:27. > :19:31.others, is the power of education, the recognition of the need to get
:19:32. > :19:34.a good education to earn the money. We are in an ever-more competitive
:19:34. > :19:38.global economy, we know we are losing jobs every day at the
:19:38. > :19:41.unskilled level. So the message, which I'm delighted to see had got
:19:41. > :19:45.through to the children there, that needs to go to parents, is that you
:19:45. > :19:48.might have been able to leave school without much on the way of
:19:48. > :19:51.qualifications and skills, get a good job, support a family, have a
:19:51. > :19:56.rich and fulfiling life. This generation, increasingly, isn't
:19:56. > :20:04.able to do so. Getting education right, making sure that the 42%
:20:04. > :20:07.last year of children who took GCSEs, 42% of them didn't get five
:20:07. > :20:11.good GCSEs including English and math, which we know triggers a move
:20:11. > :20:14.on to education or employment. are you going to do about it?
:20:14. > :20:17.have to intervene early, there is cross-party agreement on this.
:20:17. > :20:23.Perhaps what happened, and it was understandable, part of the times,
:20:23. > :20:25.but huge amounts of money were thrown in the direction, by the
:20:25. > :20:28.last Government, I don't think, they would accept in many ways,
:20:28. > :20:32.that the long-term routes weren't tackled as effectively as we would
:20:32. > :20:39.like. Now this Government has commissioned Graham allen, a Labour
:20:39. > :20:46.MP, and Frank Field, in this area, looking at early intervention, and
:20:46. > :20:50.the causes of poverty. And the Early Years Intervention will be
:20:50. > :20:53.set up hopefully soon, and look at getting the evidence on the right
:20:53. > :20:56.interventions to support. The Government is doing things like
:20:56. > :21:00.extending free nursery education to two-year-olds, trying to make sure
:21:00. > :21:04.that the children, who all too often from poor families, arrive at
:21:04. > :21:09.school is and they are not able to learn, they are not school-ready,
:21:09. > :21:15.and their confidence is knocked. And children who are born poor end
:21:15. > :21:19.up not getting the qualifications. These problems reinforce each other.
:21:19. > :21:23.Work is a key way out of poverty, we all agree. Not for those kids?
:21:23. > :21:25.It is if their parents get a chance to work and they get a decent
:21:25. > :21:30.income. Part of the problem is they go to work without a decent income.
:21:30. > :21:33.Also, in terms it of getting the more earnings, the more benefits
:21:33. > :21:36.they lose. We have to skew the system, we have to pay for more
:21:36. > :21:41.childcare. We have a mix of prokblems. They reinforce each
:21:41. > :21:45.other. If you are at home, and the energy prices are high, you put
:21:45. > :21:49.their children to bed and they do it in bed. They are so cold. You
:21:49. > :21:53.send their friends home because you can't afford to have them round to
:21:53. > :21:57.cook them a meal. These kids get much less chance at school, they
:21:57. > :22:01.don't succeed at school, they don't get your educational benefits.
:22:01. > :22:05.have to make work pay, we have to reform benefit, which is happening.
:22:05. > :22:07.The Universal Credit is an aim to make sure you don't get this
:22:07. > :22:11.disproportionate loss, when you do more hours, so many people would
:22:11. > :22:15.get a job and find themselves worse off. You know about this? I think
:22:15. > :22:19.what a lot of people are forgetting, I'm going to work and paying
:22:19. > :22:25.national insurance and tax, I should be, therefore, entitled to
:22:25. > :22:29.support, to get my child looked after properly. But the other issue
:22:29. > :22:36.is, as well, once they hit first year in Scotland, there no
:22:36. > :22:40.childcare provision at all. Which leaves the children, at a
:22:40. > :22:44.vulnerable age, to become latch-key kids. That is not acceptable.
:22:44. > :22:47.really important to recognise that, whilst Universal Credit, perhaps is
:22:47. > :22:51.far from perfect, what the Government is doing is making sure
:22:51. > :22:54.work does pay. The new system will prevent many more of these cases. I
:22:54. > :23:00.think right now we have a broken benefits system, and work doesn't
:23:00. > :23:03.reward, and people on benefits are penalised by taking work, that is
:23:03. > :23:09.perverse. But the universal benefits system has been a long
:23:09. > :23:16.time in gestation, and will take a long time to get properly grounded.
:23:16. > :23:19.Those children, those 8, 10, 12, 13, 14-year-old children, living in
:23:19. > :23:23.poverty, in this country, making calculation about what they can
:23:23. > :23:27.afford to eat on their called free school lunch, and having a chip
:23:27. > :23:31.because it fills them up. As opposed to fruit. Those children,
:23:31. > :23:35.they are not going to be rescued, are they? They will be, because the
:23:35. > :23:38.new system will help their parents to make sure that work pays them.
:23:38. > :23:41.Interestingly you mentioned the point, let me finish the point. The
:23:41. > :23:45.interesting point about how we measure poverty in this country is
:23:45. > :23:48.a big debate, we heard it in the clip earlier. It is madness how the
:23:48. > :23:53.measure is set. What we see, under the previous Government, for
:23:53. > :24:00.example, �150 billion on tax credits, for a 1%age point
:24:00. > :24:05.reduction in the -- 1% point reduction in the poverty. You were
:24:05. > :24:09.part that have team, and it didn't work? It did work, we lifted a
:24:09. > :24:11.million out of poverty. I actually support the Universal Credit, I'm
:24:11. > :24:17.here as Save the Children, not the previous Government. I think you
:24:17. > :24:20.have to put money into it. You have an extra �3 billion secured in
:24:20. > :24:24.difficult times. If we put some more money towards childcare, we
:24:24. > :24:27.could help a million children. Part of the problem with the Universal
:24:28. > :24:31.Credit, as it is being set up, and we don't know exactly how it will
:24:31. > :24:35.work yet. As you earn more and you begin to bring money in you will
:24:35. > :24:40.lose your benefits. That is the opposite of what it is about, it is
:24:40. > :24:44.about keeping more of your benefits, which is the �3 billion. On
:24:44. > :24:49.childcare they are adding an extra �300 million into childcare and
:24:49. > :24:52.more will receive it. At the moment you have to work 16 hours a week to
:24:52. > :25:00.get childcare cover. If this is the case, why so many people like
:25:00. > :25:06.Tracey and those in the film? have a broken system now, the
:25:06. > :25:09.benefit coming to an area near you, will help. In the boom years, not
:25:09. > :25:12.the post-recession time, the children in the most severe poverty,
:25:12. > :25:17.under the last Government, increased in number. That's not all
:25:17. > :25:19.just to do with failure of policy. There has been a change in the
:25:19. > :25:22.labour market and increasing challenges there. We have to get
:25:22. > :25:26.the long-term conditions right. I think the Government is moving in
:25:26. > :25:31.the right direction. People at home might be saying, the poor you have
:25:31. > :25:35.always with you, there are always going to be poor people, but what
:25:35. > :25:40.is the consequence of children failing to see their aspirations
:25:40. > :25:45.realised, their dreams realised. The sense that you can't do. What
:25:45. > :25:49.happens? It is tragic. And the social cost is appalling, in this
:25:49. > :25:52.country, in an economy, that is relatively still very prosperous,
:25:52. > :25:57.it is completely wrong and an inJews at this. How we measure that
:25:57. > :26:00.poverty is really important. Take the tax credit point, I'm not
:26:00. > :26:04.making a party political point, that �150 billion that went in for
:26:04. > :26:09.the 1% reduk. How would the money have been used, it would have been
:26:09. > :26:11.important to give it to the charities and get ahead of the
:26:11. > :26:15.family breakdown, reform the welfare system and drugs and
:26:15. > :26:19.alcohol. So many of those things make a difference to how much
:26:19. > :26:23.poverty people are in. We will long-term make more difference than
:26:23. > :26:30.anything else. Tracey, how do you keep a sense of dream and ambition
:26:30. > :26:36.and aspiration? Adam does that for me. He bolsters everything that
:26:36. > :26:43.goes on in my life. If it wasn't for his attitude, then I don't
:26:43. > :26:45.think I would have returned to work. The thing is, with children, they
:26:45. > :26:52.are there, they will support each other, without doubt. When you
:26:52. > :26:56.become an adult, it becomes political, and it is just, the
:26:56. > :27:02.wrong people are picked on, in my point of view. It is easy to take
:27:02. > :27:07.it from people that are already down, to kick them while they are
:27:07. > :27:10.down, it is easier that way. The people who don't vote any more, I
:27:10. > :27:16.don't really wonder why that is now. It is because they don't feel as
:27:16. > :27:21.though they are getting anything back at all. I did work before I
:27:21. > :27:25.had ar Adam, and it was mental health issues that me dig my own
:27:26. > :27:31.hole, that I haven't been able to get back out of financially. Now,
:27:31. > :27:36.what I did was, I flitted from the Jobcentre to the Benefits Agency,
:27:36. > :27:41.the Department of Work and Pensions. And nothing happened, I went to One
:27:41. > :27:44.Parent Family in Scotland, within a year, I had a job. Why haven't the
:27:44. > :27:48.Government adopted a more holistic method to deal with all these
:27:48. > :27:53.issues, that is my question. Thank you very much. The summer
:27:53. > :27:55.holiday is over, time for the next installment of the disaster story
:27:55. > :28:00.that is the European single currency.
:28:00. > :28:04.Tomorrow, and I'm sorry if this sounds familiar, we will hear how
:28:04. > :28:07.the European Central Bank will save the euro, or possibly not. The fate
:28:07. > :28:12.of the currency is one of the subjects to be tackled in a elect
:28:12. > :28:15.tue at the London Stock Exchange, by one of the most respected
:28:15. > :28:17.economists in the world, Larry Summers, Bill Clinton's Treasury
:28:18. > :28:23.Secretary, and Barack Obama's Chief Economic Advisor.
:28:23. > :28:29.It is not hard to see why Barack Obama wanted Larry Summers at his
:28:29. > :28:33.side, at a time that he called a time of great peril for America.
:28:33. > :28:42.Summers is used to being close to power, he was economic advise Tory
:28:42. > :28:52.Ronald Regan in the 1980, and back in the White House a decade later,
:28:52. > :28:53.
:28:53. > :28:57.with Bill Clinton. He rows through the ranks, and many say his zeal in
:28:57. > :29:01.the US financial markets helped paved the way for the crisis.
:29:01. > :29:05.Summers went back to acedemia, as President of Harvard, just in time
:29:05. > :29:09.to get caught up in one of the early disputes about who really
:29:09. > :29:13.came up with the idea for Facebook. I don't think you are in any
:29:13. > :29:19.position to make that call. I was the US Treasury Secretary, I'm in
:29:19. > :29:22.some position to make that call. Hollywood's take on the Facebook
:29:23. > :29:27.story portrayed Summers as dismissive, and most of all,
:29:27. > :29:32.arrogant. He said pretty accurate. The courts are at your disposelia,
:29:32. > :29:37.anything else I can do for you? The Republicans now have the
:29:37. > :29:43.economic record of Obama, and those, like Summers, who advised him, in
:29:43. > :29:48.their cross hairs. American growth, at 2%, may look rosy, compared with
:29:48. > :29:51.Britain's double-dip recession, but unemployment lies at more than 8%.
:29:51. > :29:58.Only one President has ever been re-elected with jobless figures
:29:58. > :30:04.like. That A little earlier I spoke to Larry
:30:04. > :30:10.Summers, from his current lair, at Harvard. It is yet another decision
:30:10. > :30:18.day for the euro tomorrow, what is the minimum that needs to be heard?
:30:18. > :30:24.I think there needs to be a very clear statement that what needs to
:30:25. > :30:33.be done will be done to ensure the continued availability of finance,
:30:33. > :30:36.particularly to pain and Italy. There needs to be a clear
:30:36. > :30:42.commitment on the part of the ECB to do what is necessary there needs
:30:42. > :30:45.to be a political recognition from the nations of northern Europe,
:30:45. > :30:51.that failure is not an option. that has been the requirement from
:30:51. > :30:54.the start of this crisis, hasn't it, to restore confidence, and make
:30:54. > :30:59.people believe that Governments, if necessary, the European Central
:30:59. > :31:02.Bank, and the rest, will save this currency, will do whatever it takes.
:31:02. > :31:07.And time after time they have failed to instill confidence. Do
:31:07. > :31:13.you think it's been well managed, this crisis? This is surely not
:31:13. > :31:17.going to be a happy chapter in international monetary history. I
:31:17. > :31:22.have often compared this to the Vietnam War. During the Vietnam War
:31:22. > :31:27.in the United States, American policy makers always did what was
:31:27. > :31:33.necessary to avoid immediate collapse, and never did what was
:31:33. > :31:37.necessary to offer a prospect of a long-running solution. And
:31:37. > :31:43.eventually, the policy collapsed around this. Let me ask you,
:31:43. > :31:47.honestly, do you believe in a year's time, there will still be 17
:31:47. > :31:51.members of the eurozone? There can't be any guarantees, we don't
:31:51. > :31:57.know what will happen in Greece. We don't know what political
:31:57. > :32:03.conditions are going to permit, in northern Europe. We don't know what
:32:03. > :32:10.will happen with respect to uncertain banking systems. But I
:32:11. > :32:15.think there is a proper judgment that, having made the momentous
:32:15. > :32:21.commitment to the euro, the right path forward is to try to live with
:32:21. > :32:29.it and do what's necessary to make it work. If the euro were to
:32:29. > :32:34.collapse, how big a deal would that be for the world economy? In ways
:32:34. > :32:39.that that are more negative than has been true historically, and in
:32:39. > :32:44.ways that are larger than is true for some decade now. The fate of
:32:44. > :32:52.the global economy over the next several years, rests heavily with
:32:52. > :33:01.Europe. Europe doesn't have the capacity to be the propulsion, that
:33:01. > :33:05.creates a rapid global expansion. But Europe does have the capacity
:33:05. > :33:10.to be the shock that brings the global economy to a screeching halt.
:33:10. > :33:14.It is the reason why so much of economic and financial diplomacy
:33:14. > :33:18.has centered, including the active involvement of the President of the
:33:18. > :33:21.United States, on Europe over the last year.
:33:21. > :33:25.You mentioned the President of the United States, when asked about his
:33:25. > :33:30.own handling of the economy, and what grade he would give himself.
:33:30. > :33:34.He said he would give himself an "incomplete" grade. What would you
:33:34. > :33:39.give him? I think that's right. I think there was a real prospect of
:33:39. > :33:44.a situation like the US Great Depression, in 2009. If you looked
:33:44. > :33:50.at what happened when the President came into office, employment was
:33:50. > :33:53.falling more rapidly, GDP was falling more rapidly, stock prices
:33:53. > :33:57.were falling more rapidly. All of it, exports, world trade was
:33:57. > :34:02.falling more rapidly all of it was falling more rapidly than in the
:34:02. > :34:05.fall of 1929, and yet, for all the problems we have had a very
:34:05. > :34:12.different path. With nothing like the kind of complete collapse of
:34:12. > :34:16.the economy that the US saw after 1929. That's because of what the
:34:16. > :34:20.President did. What grade would you give George Osborne for his
:34:20. > :34:25.management of the economy? Economic performance has been considerably
:34:25. > :34:32.better in the United States over the last several years than it has
:34:32. > :34:37.been in the United Kingdom. And I believe that relates centrally to a
:34:37. > :34:43.strategic choice, the United States made that, that the British
:34:44. > :34:50.authorities did not make. That was the strategic choice to pursue a
:34:50. > :34:54.strategy of fiscal expansion in the short run, to grow the economy,
:34:54. > :35:00.followed by a commitment to long run fiscal consolidation. In
:35:00. > :35:06.contrast, in Britain, it has been all fiscal consolidation, all the
:35:06. > :35:10.time, and I think it is something that history will not look back on
:35:10. > :35:20.kindly. Sounds to me as if you were giving him something like a D minus
:35:20. > :35:24.in terms of grades? As we pass the mid-term exam, there is real cause
:35:24. > :35:31.for concern about failure. Given what is happening in the British
:35:31. > :35:35.economy. It's life, Jim, but not as we know
:35:35. > :35:39.it, as Dr Spock never said. The evidence of what is already
:35:39. > :35:42.happening to the Arctic, subjects is may be too late to do anything
:35:42. > :35:45.about climate change. We will just have to adapt, big time. It is more
:35:45. > :35:50.than this year's awful summer, because scientists have told
:35:50. > :35:52.Newsnight, that the disappearance of Arctic ice, is effectively
:35:53. > :35:56.doubling mankind's contribution to global warming, which rather raises
:35:56. > :36:00.the question of why we should bother. Not driving to the shops
:36:00. > :36:06.any more. We will be discussing that with Peter Lilley, who has
:36:06. > :36:10.written a new report, which can be summarised as Don't Panic, and the
:36:10. > :36:15.leader of the Green Party in a few moments. We have known for some
:36:15. > :36:20.time that the Arctic ice is melting at a rapid rate. New figures we
:36:20. > :36:24.have been given, subjects the impact of that melt is doubling
:36:24. > :36:30.mankind's contribution to climate change. Now, when we first saw
:36:30. > :36:35.these beautiful shots of earth from space, curtesy of the Apollo as
:36:35. > :36:39.trau not, it triggered the green -- astronauts, it triggered the green
:36:39. > :36:46.movement. But that view has changed. This is what the Arctic looked like
:36:46. > :36:51.in the summer of 1979, and this is what it looked like in 2007, half
:36:51. > :36:54.of the ice had gone. One of Britain's leading ice scientists
:36:54. > :36:58.predict all of the ice could be gone at the North Pole, in summer,
:36:58. > :37:04.within a few years. Well this year there has been another big melt,
:37:04. > :37:12.they are still a few days away from the official minimum.
:37:12. > :37:16.Professor Peter Wadhams has spent the summer on the Arctic ice, using
:37:16. > :37:22.lasers and rob robot submarines to get a picture of what is left. He
:37:22. > :37:27.has also taken part in a BBC Two documentary series, broadcast next
:37:27. > :37:34.month, called Operation Iceberg. On an area, twice the size of
:37:34. > :37:39.Manhatten, where he had to dodge the odd polar bear. He has seen for
:37:39. > :37:46.himself the dramatic decline in sea ice. 30 years ago, then there was
:37:46. > :37:51.typically about eight million square kilometres of ice, left in
:37:51. > :37:55.the Arctic in the summer. And by 2007, five years ago, that had had
:37:55. > :38:00.halved, it had gone down to four million. This year it has gone down
:38:00. > :38:06.below that, and heading for oblivion. And the ice is also
:38:06. > :38:10.getting thinner. The volume of ice at the pole, naturally goes up in
:38:10. > :38:18.the winter and down in the summer. It has been declining over the last
:38:18. > :38:21.30 years. It is now at the lowest level since records began.
:38:21. > :38:25.Estimates that the North Pole could be ice-free in summer in a few
:38:25. > :38:29.years, contrasts with the official view of the Met Office. That the
:38:29. > :38:34.Arctic will not be completely free of ice before the summers of 2030.
:38:34. > :38:39.But it's the effect of losing all that white ice, that matters.
:38:39. > :38:43.The polar icecap acts as a giant parasol, reflecting sunlight back
:38:43. > :38:50.into the atmosphere, in what is known as the albedo effect. 30
:38:50. > :38:54.years ago, the ice looked like this. The Arctic ice covered 2% of the
:38:54. > :38:58.earth's surface, reflecting most of the sun's ray. But half of that ice
:38:58. > :39:04.has now gone. And open water absorbs far more of the sun's
:39:04. > :39:09.energy. Professor Wadhams told us, parts of
:39:09. > :39:13.the Arctic Ocean are now as warm in summer, as the North Sea in winter.
:39:13. > :39:18.Over that 1% of the surface of the earth, you are replacing a bright
:39:18. > :39:22.surface, which reflects nearly all the radiation falling on it, by a
:39:22. > :39:27.dark surface, which absorbs nearly all. The difference, the extra
:39:27. > :39:33.radiation that is absorbed, from our calculation, the equivalent of
:39:33. > :39:39.20 years of additional carbon dioxide, being added by man. If his
:39:39. > :39:44.calculation are correct, that means, over recent decades, the melting
:39:45. > :39:48.icecap has put as much heat into the system as all the C067892 we
:39:48. > :39:52.have generated at that time. If the ice continues to decline at the
:39:52. > :39:55.current rate, it could play a bigger role than greenhouse gases.
:39:55. > :39:59.Professored Wadhams suggests there are uncertainties, cloud cover over
:39:59. > :40:04.the Arctic could change, and help reflect back some of the sun's
:40:04. > :40:09.radiation. But then, another greenhouse gas, me tain, currently
:40:09. > :40:13.trapped in the Arctic methane, currently trapped in the Arctic,
:40:13. > :40:16.could be released and make matters worse. What does it mean for us?
:40:16. > :40:22.could end up with more of the kind of weather that deluged so much of
:40:22. > :40:26.June and July. As the ice melts, this pumps a lot of heat into the
:40:26. > :40:30.lower atmosphere. That has an important effect on the jetstream,
:40:31. > :40:36.and the storm track that impinges on Europe, and changes the weather
:40:36. > :40:40.time scales. Some studies suggest there is increased wet summers over
:40:40. > :40:46.the UK as the ice melts. Other suggests the winter weather could
:40:47. > :40:50.be more snowy and cold, due to the ice decline. It all raises
:40:50. > :40:55.questions, for both sides of the debate about how best to respond to
:40:55. > :40:59.the changing climate. Do we need another new Manhatten project,
:40:59. > :41:04.ambitious engineering skeefpls, such as mirrors in space, or
:41:04. > :41:10.artificial seeding of clouds to keep the panel cool. Does it
:41:11. > :41:15.reinforce calls to save the Arctic, by cutting carbon emissions.
:41:15. > :41:20.The very question we want to discuss with Natalie Bennett, the
:41:20. > :41:24.new leader of the Green Party, and Peter Lilley, who has written a
:41:24. > :41:29.robust rebuttal on the stern committee findings. If that
:41:29. > :41:32.analysis is correct, about what has happened to the Arctic, and what
:41:32. > :41:36.the consequence is. There is precious little point in making any
:41:36. > :41:42.of the adjustments to our lifestyle that you in the Green Party seem to
:41:42. > :41:46.be suggesting? Not at all. We can still make a big impact in cutting
:41:46. > :41:50.carbon emissions. And we can also act in ways that make society
:41:50. > :41:54.better and stronger. We can invest in the future of our society, we
:41:54. > :42:00.must do it now. We just saw the figures in terms of the ice melt,
:42:00. > :42:05.we need to act and now. If the effect of the melting icecap, or
:42:05. > :42:13.melted icecap, is, as is suggested, that will make dam
:42:13. > :42:17.Damn all difference? -- damn all difference? Let's wait, we want to
:42:17. > :42:22.bring industries and farming back to Britain. That is entirely
:42:22. > :42:26.another point to climate change? need to shorten the supply chain to
:42:26. > :42:30.use less fossil fuels, so no carbon emissions. If the damage is already
:42:30. > :42:35.done, what is the point? We can reduce the further damage if we act
:42:35. > :42:41.now and immediate low. We need to do that. I was told to come on the
:42:41. > :42:44.programme and not discuss the science, to take the UN inter-
:42:44. > :42:48.governmental panel on climate change assessment as a correct pro-
:42:48. > :42:52.jex on what the likely trends were going to be -- projection on what
:42:52. > :42:56.the likely trends were going to be. You presented something that
:42:57. > :43:01.purports to be new evidence, which contains something new, it is not
:43:01. > :43:09.peer reviewed by a well known alarmist, and bun come, compared
:43:09. > :43:14.with the IPCC. The IPCC's prediction is this they say sea ice
:43:14. > :43:18.is predicted to shrink in the Arctic and Antarctic, and in all
:43:18. > :43:22.scenario, in some projections, the late summer ice disappears almost
:43:22. > :43:27.entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. They present a graph
:43:27. > :43:33.of all the different projections, none of them shows it melting
:43:33. > :43:41.before the year 2070, on a regular basis in the summer. It used to
:43:41. > :43:50.melt in other times n the 1930s it was warmer in the Antarctic. We
:43:50. > :43:55.have a contentious piece of filming. It is the BBC's policy, not to
:43:55. > :44:00.broadcast anyone who thinks the IPCC is excessive. You do think
:44:00. > :44:06.climate change is happening? I do, I want to work on the IPCC science,
:44:06. > :44:10.not something concocted by the BBC, in an alarmist fashion, which is
:44:10. > :44:17.not peer reviewed. We're not sufficiently co-ordinated to manage
:44:17. > :44:22.to concoct something like that? did, it just had. It was a report
:44:22. > :44:24.printed by the science editor, who -- presented by a science editor
:44:24. > :44:29.who interviewed someone who probably knows more than three of
:44:29. > :44:32.us. You know better than him? know what the IPCC says, and I
:44:32. > :44:36.think their assessment of the science is better than Professor
:44:36. > :44:43.Wadhams, who is a well known alarmist. We know that consistently,
:44:43. > :44:47.all of the indicators of climate change, or global warning, have
:44:47. > :44:51.moved much faster than scientists predicted. Everything has been at
:44:51. > :44:57.the upper end of projection, or on the projections. The fact is,
:44:57. > :45:04.really, Mr Lilley, what you represent, are the last throws of a
:45:04. > :45:08.dying argument. The -- gros of a dying argument. The geological
:45:08. > :45:15.Association of America, last year, entitled its conference, as being
:45:15. > :45:21.about the anthropist scene, we have created a new geological era.
:45:21. > :45:26.is no dispute about the two of you with weather anything is change
:45:26. > :45:30.anything the climate. What needs to be done or what can be done?
:45:30. > :45:34.think we need to project forward, what is likely to happen, on the
:45:34. > :45:39.basis of the best scientific evidence. And the IPCC provides
:45:39. > :45:43.that, not so much BBC person, a bit like. That then work out the
:45:43. > :45:49.economics, and only do things where the costs are less than the benefit.
:45:49. > :45:53.That is what we ought to be doing. I have assessed the Stern Report,
:45:53. > :45:58.and looked at that, it says even on the worst scenario that depict, if
:45:58. > :46:01.we take the action that he proposes, the costs will exceed the benefits
:46:01. > :46:05.for the first century. We are talking of doing something where
:46:06. > :46:11.any returns are going to accrue to people more than a century hence.
:46:11. > :46:15.Should we be going that, the Green Party may think so. Do you want us
:46:15. > :46:21.all to stop flying in the Green Party now? No, we don't want you to
:46:21. > :46:26.start crying. That is not what Stern proposes,
:46:26. > :46:32.let as be sensible, you are being unfair to the Green Party. What we
:46:32. > :46:37.would like to do is relocalise our industries, bring farming back into
:46:37. > :46:41.the UK. Stop flying peas from Peru and beans from Kenya. We want jobs,
:46:41. > :46:46.we want to bring industries back into the UK. All very much positive
:46:46. > :46:50.for the UK, and are good to reducing the carbon emissions at
:46:50. > :46:57.the same time. We can insulate people's homes, so people have
:46:57. > :47:01.warmer and more comfortable homes and and lower fuel bills. You think
:47:01. > :47:06.its benefits way outweigh the costs? We can bring a more healthy
:47:06. > :47:09.life. Timing is key here? Let's look at the situation of the green
:47:10. > :47:14.business. The green economy now accounts for about 9% of the
:47:14. > :47:17.British economy. That is about the same as the finance industries. 5%
:47:17. > :47:23.growth rate every year, year on year. A third of the growth in the
:47:23. > :47:30.UK, last year, came from the green industries. What do you say to
:47:30. > :47:33.that? Let's, if we spend lots on supsidies, we will get a growth in
:47:33. > :47:38.those subsidised industries, at the expense ift other countries paying
:47:38. > :47:43.taxes. If you spent a lot of money building wind turbines, you will
:47:43. > :47:48.get employment in erecting them. You will get less employment in
:47:48. > :47:54.erecting gas turbines that are more efficient, because you are not
:47:54. > :48:00.producing those. Let's leave it there. I do want to resent the idea
:48:00. > :48:05.we should impoverish the people of keenia and Peru, by stopping