:00:12. > :00:19.Two-and-a-half years into a Government that promised to sort
:00:19. > :00:24.out the economy and things are not only no better, but in some cases
:00:24. > :00:27.they are much worse. The Chancellor of the Exchequer won't change, he
:00:27. > :00:33.won't even change his slogan. nation working hard together, we
:00:33. > :00:41.are still, all in this together. All these words in his speech and
:00:41. > :00:45.not a single mention of the "g" word, "growth".
:00:45. > :00:49.By Christmas we will know if the Chancellor has met two tests he set
:00:49. > :00:52.for himself to turn around the economy. If he hasn't met them,
:00:52. > :00:59.there will be mitigating circumstances, but he will be
:00:59. > :01:04.weaker. The main event of the day at the Conservative Party
:01:04. > :01:09.Conference, Boris Johnson shows up. If this is the moment life begins,
:01:09. > :01:14.maybe abortion is murder, but if it isn't, what is the date when
:01:14. > :01:19.abortion should become illegal. Campaigners on all sides of the
:01:19. > :01:23.argument are here. Unrest in Iran, as inflation heads
:01:23. > :01:33.sky wards and the economy plunges, is it possible that international
:01:33. > :01:35.
:01:35. > :01:38.sanctions are working. When he appeared at the Olympic Games they
:01:38. > :01:44.booed him. At least that didn't happen to him today, but he was
:01:44. > :01:47.speaking at the gathering of his own political party members. He
:01:47. > :01:51.spent over half an hour reassuring them he knows what he's doing,
:01:51. > :01:55.despite the fact that a Government who promised to sort out the
:01:55. > :01:59.economy is preying over a massive growth in public debt. We are all,
:01:59. > :02:04.apparently, still in this together. Allegra Stratton was there, and she
:02:04. > :02:09.was all ears. The speech was actually quite flat
:02:09. > :02:15.today, five years ago, you have to remember, ago was when George
:02:15. > :02:18.Osborne brought out the inheritance tax policy, and it stalled Gordon
:02:18. > :02:26.Brown's plans for a general election. He got his reputation
:02:26. > :02:30.there for being Houdini as Chancellor and politician, we are
:02:30. > :02:34.asking the question a few years into the Government if he still has
:02:34. > :02:40.that, and the opinion is mixed. You could say on his own tests he has
:02:40. > :02:43.failed. Two tests set at the beginning, he would eliminate the
:02:44. > :02:48.structural deficit by 2015 he has delayed that by two years. And the
:02:48. > :02:53.other thing is debt as a proportion of GDP would be falling. Again, it
:02:53. > :02:56.looks like, we are not certain, that will also not be met. The
:02:56. > :02:59.problem for George Osborne is not now, but in a few weeks time we
:02:59. > :03:03.will know that for certain. Therefore, he has to face the
:03:03. > :03:07.prospect of two of those targets not being met. All of the above is
:03:07. > :03:10.failure, I do think it is a mark of the man that he has given himself
:03:10. > :03:14.the political space to be able to do that and get away with it.
:03:14. > :03:19.Remember when he announced he was delaying that rolling fiscal
:03:19. > :03:23.deficit reduction target, he got away with that with remarkably few
:03:23. > :03:27.scars. I think, firstly, the Labour Party is likely to accept at the
:03:27. > :03:31.next election that they agree with coalition spending plans. You have
:03:31. > :03:36.to, he has failed, on his own terms, but he has given himself the space
:03:36. > :03:41.to create new terms. It is politically clever, the economics
:03:41. > :03:45.not so good. Did he restore any political
:03:45. > :03:49.reputation today? No, today was a flat speech, a few policies in it.
:03:49. > :03:54.Very interesting for people like me. In terms of the mega-headlines,
:03:54. > :03:58.they didn't cut it, and didn't do enough, apart from a few clap lines
:03:58. > :04:01.on welfare. People here really like that, they like the �10 billion.
:04:01. > :04:05.Apart from that he didn't do enough. The main event for the Chancellor
:04:05. > :04:11.is in a few weeks time, when the Office for Budget Responsibility
:04:11. > :04:15.pronounce whether he makes that next cut.
:04:15. > :04:19.Thank you. The promise coming into Government of a return to growth
:04:19. > :04:22.has, so far, proven a miserable prediction. Despite this, the
:04:23. > :04:32.Chancellor still wanted to sound optimistic today. But does he
:04:33. > :04:33.
:04:33. > :04:37.deserve to be? We have been looking at his record, and outlook.
:04:37. > :04:44.Around Westminster and Whitehall, at least on paper, the Chancellor
:04:44. > :04:49.is known by his initials, you suspect he rather likes this H it
:04:49. > :04:54.suggests action, positivity and progress. Unfortunately, the
:04:54. > :05:01.economy hasn't been nearly so dynamic, economic growth isn't so
:05:01. > :05:06.much as G-O, as G-O-N-E. The Chancellor's job today in speech
:05:06. > :05:09.was to explain why the recovery was so much harder than he predicted,
:05:09. > :05:13.and to convince voters he still knows what to do. The truth is s
:05:13. > :05:18.that the damage done by the debts and the banking crisis was worse
:05:18. > :05:23.than we feared. The rise in the world oil price has been larger
:05:23. > :05:28.than anyone forecast. Sadly, the predictions that you made, that I
:05:28. > :05:34.made, that almost everyone here made, about the euro, turned out to
:05:34. > :05:41.be all too true. This makes the job more difficult. But it doesn't make
:05:41. > :05:45.it any less urgent. We all know we have economic problems, the
:05:45. > :05:49.Chancellor today, like Ed Miliband last week, was trying to define
:05:49. > :05:54.exactly what the big problem is, and therefore, what we need to do
:05:54. > :05:59.about it. Labour see the big issue as growth. Therefore, we need to
:05:59. > :06:04.stop austerity, or at least slow it down a bit, until growth returns.
:06:04. > :06:07.George Osborne, on the Conservatives on the othered hand,
:06:07. > :06:12.wants to show the big problem we face is too much borrowing,
:06:12. > :06:16.therefore, the last thing we should be doing, they say, is reining back
:06:16. > :06:19.on austerity. We need to keep going, with deficit reduction. Because the
:06:19. > :06:25.Government has missed its deficit reduction targets, it is having to
:06:25. > :06:32.outline new cuts and tax rises going into the next parliament. �16
:06:32. > :06:35.billion worth in total, �10 billion to come from welfare cuts. For, the
:06:35. > :06:39.Chancellor said, a very simple reason. How can we justify the
:06:39. > :06:43.incomes of those out of work, rising faster than the incomes of
:06:43. > :06:48.those in work. How can we justify giving flats to young people who
:06:48. > :06:53.have never worked, when working people twice their age, are still
:06:54. > :06:57.living with their parents because they can't afford their first home.
:06:57. > :07:00.APPLAUSE About �3.2 billion of the new
:07:01. > :07:05.deficit reduction will come from tax rises, but where from? One
:07:05. > :07:07.place they are not going to come from, said the Chancellor, is from
:07:07. > :07:12.the Liberal Democrats' preferred mansion tax on properties worth
:07:12. > :07:18.more than �2 million. It would be sold as a mansion tax, but once the
:07:18. > :07:22.tax inspector has his foot in the door, you would soon find most of
:07:22. > :07:27.the homes in the country labelled a mansion. Homes people have worked
:07:27. > :07:32.hard to afford and already paid taxes on. It is not a mansion tax,
:07:32. > :07:36.it is a homes' tax, this party of homeownership will have no truck
:07:36. > :07:40.with it. The leaflet the Conservatives were
:07:40. > :07:45.giving out today claimed the coalition had already reduced the
:07:45. > :07:52.deficit by 25%. The Chancellor even said so in his speech. The deficit
:07:52. > :07:58.is down by a quarter. In fact, he said it twice. Yes, we have cut the
:07:58. > :08:02.budget deficit, by a quarter. only way to get to a figure of near
:08:03. > :08:07.25%, is to stop counting at the end of the last financial year. Because,
:08:07. > :08:11.since then, the public finances have deteriorated sharply. If you
:08:11. > :08:15.include this period in a rolling 12-month total, well the reduction
:08:15. > :08:19.is only something like 18%. Even this might be overgenerous to the
:08:19. > :08:24.Chancellor. If you change the way of counting the deficit to the one
:08:24. > :08:27.preferred by many economists and used by the Office for National
:08:27. > :08:33.Statistics. It is called the current budget balance, and it
:08:33. > :08:39.ignores capital spending. On this measure the deficit peaked at �110
:08:39. > :08:45.billion in 2009/10, it dropped to �59 billion lasty, but on a holeing
:08:45. > :08:50.12-month total it is up to �108 billion. A reduction not so much of
:08:50. > :08:53.25%, how does 2% sound? Whichever way you slice it, there are big
:08:54. > :08:57.questions for the Chancellor. this December in his Autumn
:08:57. > :09:01.Statement, it looks like the independent Office for Budget
:09:01. > :09:05.Responsibility, will tell him at least one of his fiscal rules won't
:09:05. > :09:08.be met. We didn't hearing anything today about how he will respond to.
:09:08. > :09:10.That one of the biggest questions for him, and one of the most
:09:10. > :09:15.interesting issues for the economy and the public finances, will be
:09:15. > :09:20.now will he respond in December, when the OBR tell him, actually, on
:09:20. > :09:24.your current plans you are not going to meet the rules you have
:09:24. > :09:27.set yourself. There is more bad news for GO
:09:27. > :09:33.tonight, as he heads for a meeting of European finance ministers
:09:33. > :09:36.tomorrow, in the last few minutes the IMF have published updated
:09:37. > :09:43.growth forecast, with the UK growth prospects sharply devised downwards
:09:43. > :09:46.for this year and next. To discuss his boss's performance,
:09:46. > :09:50.the Treasury Minister David Gauke joins us from Birmingham. David
:09:50. > :09:54.Gauke, you promised when you came into power you would sort out the
:09:54. > :09:58.economy, instead of which you are borrowing more thanth year than
:09:58. > :10:03.last year, growth forecasts are downgraded tomorrow, and we are
:10:03. > :10:06.back in recession. Shouldn't he have apoll goised today? Well, --
:10:06. > :10:11.Apologised today? Well, no, the situation is clearly difficult for
:10:11. > :10:15.the economy in the UK, as it is in pretty well other developed economy.
:10:15. > :10:24.The fact is, that the eurozone has created great uncertainty t the
:10:25. > :10:30.damage done to the economy in 2007/8, by the financial cry sits,
:10:30. > :10:34.was more severen -- crisis, was more severe than anyone had thought.
:10:34. > :10:38.Add into that commodity prices have been high, that has made growth
:10:38. > :10:41.much more difficult. That is the essence of the problems we have
:10:41. > :10:45.faced. But this is a Government that is determined to address those
:10:45. > :10:48.problems, and make us more competitive and get growth in the
:10:49. > :10:53.economy. It doesn't sound like a Government that is determined to
:10:53. > :10:57.control things, he sounds like a passenger at the back of the bus?
:10:57. > :11:01.No. Clearly there are international factors, and, you know, Government
:11:01. > :11:05.has to deal with those. We are not powerless in the face of some of
:11:05. > :11:10.those international pressures. Clearly it is more difficult in
:11:10. > :11:14.terms of getting growth in an economy, when we're seeing many
:11:14. > :11:19.other economies in difficulty. The eurozone is clearly a major crisis
:11:19. > :11:23.that we have to deal with. We are doing everything we can to get
:11:23. > :11:27.growth, that is why we have measures on planning, on employment,
:11:27. > :11:34.that is why we are concentrating on getting more infrastructure
:11:34. > :11:38.spending. That is why we're taking steps to get funding for businesses.
:11:38. > :11:42.There are difficult circumstances. We accept that, but it doesn't mean
:11:42. > :11:45.we should abandon our attempts to get control of the public finances.
:11:45. > :11:52.That would be extremely reckless thing to do. He seems to think some
:11:52. > :11:56.of it is our fault. He said today there was a need for people to be
:11:56. > :12:00.working hard, as if we are not. How many people in this country are not
:12:00. > :12:06.working hard? I think the point he was making is a much bigger
:12:06. > :12:11.challenge for countries like the UK, indeed all mature western
:12:11. > :12:15.democracies. At a time when there is greater competition, when other
:12:15. > :12:21.economies are rising, that creates great opportunities, new markets
:12:21. > :12:24.for us to exploit. But if we sit back, if we are complacent, and we
:12:24. > :12:28.don't respond to the challenges, the future for countries that do
:12:28. > :12:34.that, is not particularly a happy one. That is why you have to take
:12:34. > :12:39.some of the, quite tough decision, to ensure we get growth in the
:12:39. > :12:44.long-term. It sounds to me that the person who ought to be working
:12:44. > :12:48.harder is George Osborne? We're all working very hard in terms of
:12:48. > :12:53.delivering policies that will make us more competitive, putting us in
:12:53. > :12:58.a position for stronger growth in future years. That is a big
:12:58. > :13:02.challenge we all have to face up to. That is why we're bringing forward
:13:02. > :13:06.proposals that may be tough and difficult, like welfare reform,
:13:06. > :13:10.that is why we are more demanding of our education system, and want
:13:10. > :13:13.to put standards up higher. That is why we have to have a competitive
:13:13. > :13:18.tax system. All those things are really important, that is what the
:13:18. > :13:24.Government is focusing on. couldn't even stick to a line on
:13:24. > :13:28.tax on Cornish pastties and caravans, could he? -- pasties and
:13:28. > :13:33.caravans, could he? These are measures we listened to what people
:13:33. > :13:37.had to say and changed policies. It is hardly fundamental to the
:13:37. > :13:42.position of this Government, in terms of bringing through some big
:13:42. > :13:48.spending cuts, getting control of the deficit at a very difficult
:13:48. > :13:50.time, and ensuring that we have credibility. We have goat
:13:50. > :13:54.credibility, that is why the markets allow us to have interest
:13:54. > :13:59.rates as low as they are, and we are determined to stuck to that
:13:59. > :14:03.course. There are Governments who in these circumstances would give
:14:03. > :14:07.up and walk away and abandon that hard-won credibility. That is not
:14:07. > :14:11.what we are going to do, that is not what George Osborne is B we are
:14:11. > :14:15.determined to ensure that we succeed -- is about, we are
:14:15. > :14:19.determined to ensure we succeed and press on. Your Government says
:14:19. > :14:23.there is about �16 billion of cuts to come, you have also said the
:14:23. > :14:30.cuts will be divided between cuts in public spending and rises in
:14:30. > :14:35.taxation, about a ratio of 80%-20%. Correct? That means you have �3.2
:14:35. > :14:42.billion in extra taxes to raise. How will you do that? Obviously any
:14:42. > :14:45.announcements in terms of taxes will be made at budget or Autumn
:14:45. > :14:50.Statements. I would make the point in every budget so far we have
:14:50. > :14:56.raised more from the wealthiest in measures like capital gains tax,
:14:56. > :15:00.stamp duty, land tax. We have taken measures to deal with avoidance. We
:15:00. > :15:07.have capped reliefs, we are prepared to share the burden around,
:15:07. > :15:12.so those with the broader shoulders share the greatest burden. That
:15:12. > :15:17.80%-20% split has taken over the whole financial period. The
:15:17. > :15:19.important thing is we don't tax ourselves into an uncompetitive
:15:19. > :15:22.position, and most of the academic evidence suggests that most of the
:15:22. > :15:27.focus should be on spending cuts, that is what we are delivering.
:15:27. > :15:33.As you know, your boss is a very unpopular man. When he appeared at
:15:33. > :15:38.the Olympics, people booed him, do you like him? Yes. I have worked
:15:38. > :15:43.for George for five years, he's a very good guy to work for. Why do
:15:43. > :15:50.you like him? Because he's very thoughtful, he's committed to doing
:15:50. > :15:54.what he can for the country. He's very, very bright. He wants to
:15:54. > :15:59.serve the country to the best of his abilities. Actually, at a
:15:59. > :16:03.personal level, someone to work with. He listens, he engages. He's
:16:03. > :16:09.the sort of boss that most people would want, I would say. You think
:16:09. > :16:17.the public will come to love him? think for any politician to hope to
:16:17. > :16:21.be loved, I think, is perhaps a little hopeful, I think he's
:16:21. > :16:29.someone who should be respected. I think he's doing an excellent job
:16:29. > :16:32.as Chancellor. The most excitable crowd at the Tory Party conference
:16:32. > :16:39.was not surrounding the Chancellor or the Prime Minister, but swirling
:16:39. > :16:43.around a man not even in the cabinet. Whatever popularity
:16:43. > :16:47.politicians have, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London has got it. He
:16:47. > :16:52.says he's there to support the party conference, but he hides his
:16:52. > :16:56.ambition in the same way Eric Pickles could claim to be a hurdler.
:16:56. > :17:03.Boris is the friend without whom life would be a lout easier for
:17:03. > :17:09.David Cameron. The thing about mayor's with blonde hair, one of
:17:09. > :17:19.the country's most famous mayors was famous for an orchid stuffed in
:17:19. > :17:24.his Labour party pel. He made Birmingham go Zong. He overhauled
:17:24. > :17:31.the housing supply and the systems, Birmingham is used to nurturing
:17:31. > :17:35.mayors on to other things. Another one rolls into town in an hour. The
:17:35. > :17:39.Conservative's Prince across the water, today waded into Birmingham.
:17:40. > :17:42.This is as close as I will get to be in the paparazzi, we are waiting
:17:43. > :17:48.to get into Boris Johnson's slip stream, without which we have no
:17:48. > :17:53.chance to get close to him. Down there, cabinet ministers are having
:17:54. > :17:58.cups of tea without being bothered. It used to be the leader's speech
:17:58. > :18:03.that was the big thing, today it is Johnson I don't know who is the
:18:03. > :18:11.belle of the ball. A belle of the ball, featuring in a welcome video,
:18:11. > :18:15.made to warm the crowd up, ahead of the entrance by the real thing. At
:18:15. > :18:19.one point, one could hardly move along the thin corridors in
:18:19. > :18:24.Birmingham, the question for Boris Johnson is how much can he say. You
:18:25. > :18:29.can talk about winning 2012 elections in London, a notoriously
:18:29. > :18:34.hard city for the Tories. But how to win an election in 2015, is too
:18:34. > :18:38.close to the bone for David Cameron. Within moments it was clear he came
:18:38. > :18:44.to praise David Cameron, not to bury him, even a tiny bit. It is
:18:44. > :18:47.sometimes inevitable that a Major of a great -- Mayor of Great city
:18:47. > :18:51.may find himself that are at variance with national policy S of
:18:51. > :18:57.course, I'm stkpwoing to continue to lobby for a long -- going to
:18:57. > :19:04.continue to lobby for a long overdue answer to our capacity
:19:04. > :19:08.problems. But no-one as a result of that should have any cause to doubt
:19:08. > :19:14.my admiration for David Cameron. But an airport is the licensed
:19:14. > :19:18.disagreement. That morning Boris Johnson had writ on how the middle-
:19:18. > :19:21.classes -- written on how the middle-classes were shut out of the
:19:21. > :19:25.housing market. It is close to a denunciation of his party's
:19:25. > :19:30.strategy. There are many thousands of people who are the motor of our
:19:30. > :19:35.economy, who can't afford get the housing they need in London. They
:19:35. > :19:44.are not the people who normally qualify for affordable housing,
:19:44. > :19:47.they are on �34,000-�64,000. By the end the Johnson jingoism was
:19:47. > :19:51.employed in support of the coalition, not against it. If the
:19:51. > :19:56.Government goes the way it is going, sticks to the programme, doesn't
:19:56. > :19:58.get blown off party, remains a one- nation party, plonked squarely in
:19:58. > :20:02.the middle of British politics. Prime Minister's head of
:20:02. > :20:09.communications was watching closely When the economy improves and
:20:09. > :20:11.people feel it, I think that people are look back at the tough,
:20:11. > :20:16.pragmatic, responsible decisions this Government took, and say they
:20:16. > :20:21.were on the right lines. As much as Boris Johnson can be, that was a
:20:21. > :20:23.are strained performance for him. Clever tactic, dampen the
:20:23. > :20:32.expectation, but please the activists, they know, he's still
:20:32. > :20:35.the one they really love. Right now there is no vacancies for Boris, or
:20:35. > :20:38.cadidacy for Boris. But if things don't turn around, the
:20:39. > :20:41.Conservatives may find there is a necessity for Boris Johnson. The
:20:42. > :20:44.Conservative Party party is acidously not discussing something
:20:44. > :20:49.which very large numbers of the general population have strong
:20:49. > :20:54.views on. In that, perhaps, they reflect the general hypocrisy of
:20:54. > :20:57.the British people. The topic is abortion, it was illegal until the
:20:57. > :21:04.1960, the argument isn't about the principle of termination, which
:21:04. > :21:07.most people seem to agree with, but with the date up to which it is
:21:07. > :21:12.legal. The Health Secretary thinks it should be reduced from 24 weeks
:21:12. > :21:16.to 12. When it comes to abortion, they are
:21:16. > :21:19.about Assenor a bunch of politicians as they come. Prime
:21:19. > :21:24.Minister, Women's Minister, Home Secretary, all on record as
:21:24. > :21:30.favouring a reduction in abortion limits from 24-20 weeks. The Health
:21:30. > :21:35.Secretary would go even further, and bring it down to 12. None of
:21:35. > :21:40.these are new views, all four politicians voted to lower the
:21:40. > :21:44.limit, last time parliament debated abortion. What has changed since
:21:44. > :21:48.the 2010 election, of course, is the voting complex of parliament as
:21:48. > :21:58.a whole. It is problem safe to assume, it hasn't become any more
:21:58. > :22:00.
:22:00. > :22:05.hostile to lowering the limit. Babies born before 24 weeks will
:22:05. > :22:11.only survive if they have help with their breathing, if they have
:22:11. > :22:14.intravenous nutrition, and a lot of other very demanding, costly and
:22:14. > :22:19.challenging treatments. Dedicated staff, and an important price of
:22:20. > :22:26.survival is that the baby's suffer a lot for many weeks. In Sweden,
:22:26. > :22:32.the latest evidence shows that a survival of 53% is possible at 23
:22:32. > :22:38.weeks, and 10% at 22 weeks. But this is only in a country which has
:22:38. > :22:42.probably the best social and medical conditions in the world.
:22:42. > :22:45.The woman who heads one of Britain's leading abortion
:22:45. > :22:49.providers, says people are not getting a clear picture of the
:22:49. > :22:53.latest evidence. Because all sides use it to help make their case of
:22:53. > :22:59.the One small study does not a huge body of evidence make. When I want
:22:59. > :23:03.to know about what's going on, with the survival of severely premature
:23:03. > :23:08.babies. The people I would be asking are the neonatologists, who
:23:08. > :23:13.work in those areas. My understanding at the moment, is a
:23:13. > :23:16.lot of those professionals are concerned that the public has an
:23:16. > :23:26.overly optimistic sense of survival rates. Rather than the other way
:23:26. > :23:28.
:23:28. > :23:31.round. 12 weeks is best known as the time
:23:31. > :23:36.many women have the first scan. It is also the point at which the
:23:36. > :23:43.Health Secretary would like to see abortion limited. The logic of the
:23:43. > :23:49.12-week limit, is because that is the time when the foetus has
:23:49. > :23:54.completed oregano genesis, there is some logic in fixing the
:23:54. > :24:01.termination at that gestation. It is used in Europe-widely, the 12-
:24:01. > :24:07.week limit, for social terminations, in countries such as France they
:24:07. > :24:13.will allow later abortions for severe foetal abnormalities. That
:24:13. > :24:17.is the way we should go, in this country, I think. It is true babies,
:24:17. > :24:22.the vital organs have been formed by 12 week, and the feet tus are
:24:22. > :24:27.able to move around, and -- foetuses, are able to move around
:24:27. > :24:31.and so on. Evidence from neuroscenes does not suggest that
:24:31. > :24:38.the foetus is conscious or able to feel pain at that time. Impressive
:24:38. > :24:44.advances in ultrasound images, particularly the latest 3.D scan,
:24:44. > :24:53.which means we can see more, and opportunities for bonding between
:24:53. > :25:01.parent and child. The vast majority of abortions in the UK take place
:25:01. > :25:08.before 12 weeks, close to 175,000 in 201, 91%. That same year there
:25:08. > :25:13.were 14,000 abortions between 13-19 weeks, and just over 2,500, about
:25:13. > :25:18.1.5%, between 20-24 weeks. Very few women are seeking abortion after 20
:25:19. > :25:26.weeks of pregnancy. Those that do have got really good reasons for
:25:26. > :25:30.doing it. Sometimes it's that a test has indicated that their baby
:25:30. > :25:34.will be born with a disability that they don't feel they can imagine.
:25:34. > :25:37.Sometimes they didn't realise they were pregnant sometimes they are
:25:37. > :25:41.very young girls concealing the pregnancy from their parents.
:25:41. > :25:46.Sometimes it is women whose periods have stopped, and it never occurred
:25:46. > :25:51.to them that it could be because they were pregnant. I have seen
:25:51. > :25:54.these case his trees, I'm not really convinced by -- histories,
:25:54. > :25:58.I'm not really convinced by most of them, maybe one or two. I don't
:25:58. > :26:03.think we can let the exceptional case drive the whole question of a
:26:03. > :26:08.reduction of the abortion limit for the majority of women who come for
:26:08. > :26:13.termination of pregnancy. For many, focusing on the number of
:26:13. > :26:18.weeks at which to set the abortion limit, misses broader questions
:26:18. > :26:23.that should bring a fresh look to the old debate. While it is clear a
:26:23. > :26:29.12-week limit would get short shrift in parliament, any lowering
:26:29. > :26:35.of the limit down to 22 week, is less easy to call. With us to
:26:35. > :26:44.discuss the issue is Guardian columnist, Zoe Williams, Patricia
:26:44. > :26:48.Lohr, and chief executive of the Christian Medical Fellowship, and
:26:48. > :26:54.campaigner, Kathryn Attwood. To what is a reasonable lowering of
:26:54. > :27:04.the time limit? Of the 16 story Tory members of the cabinet, 13
:27:04. > :27:04.
:27:04. > :27:09.voted in 2008 for it to come down. To what? 7-20 weeks, 2-16, 3-12,
:27:09. > :27:14.the European average is about 10-12 weeks. What do you think it should
:27:14. > :27:19.come to? I would like to see it come down substantially. To what?
:27:19. > :27:22.I'm opposed to abortion myself. Full stop? It is against the
:27:22. > :27:27.hypocratic oath. We should be moving much more in the direction
:27:27. > :27:33.of Germany, which has a 12-week limit, and an abortion rate 0% of
:27:33. > :27:37.our's. In an ideal world no abortions at all, you are an
:27:38. > :27:45.absolutist? I'm opposed to abortion, personally, myself, yes. I said
:27:46. > :27:50.that most MPs are not, but it is these amazing 4-D ultrasound, and
:27:50. > :27:56.the new information about foetal sentients, and babies surviving
:27:56. > :28:01.below 24 weeks, it is changing the opinions of many. What do you
:28:01. > :28:07.think? If we really want to look at the evidence, the facts are these.
:28:07. > :28:11.Foetal vaiblt has not reduced, even in places where we have viability
:28:11. > :28:17.has no reduced, even in places where we have the most care. There
:28:17. > :28:22.are no adverse health outcomes for the woman, psychological outcomes
:28:22. > :28:26.from the woman. And abortion is far safer than childbirth, even in
:28:27. > :28:32.places, again, with very advanced medical system. I think that this
:28:32. > :28:36.is the evidence. But most importantly, these are not
:28:36. > :28:41.decisions where people are necessarily weighing up scientific
:28:41. > :28:45.evidence. That is very important when people are facing a very
:28:45. > :28:50.premature birth, when there are serious medical health conditions
:28:50. > :28:54.involved, but for most people considering an abortion, it is
:28:54. > :28:56.about whether they are personally ready, whether they are financially
:28:56. > :29:01.stable, whether they are psychologically ready to bear a
:29:01. > :29:06.child or become a parent. Why do you think this has suddenly become
:29:06. > :29:10.topical, then? I know exactly why. It is nothing to do with the time
:29:10. > :29:14.limit on abortion, there is no way Jeremy Hunt will try to bring it
:29:14. > :29:19.down to 12 week, if he did, nobody would vote for it, it would never
:29:19. > :29:24.get past private members' stage. The reason he's doing it, is as
:29:24. > :29:29.Tories member do, throwing a sock to the right of the party, using
:29:29. > :29:33.women's issues as their territory, which is very irritating. I'm very
:29:33. > :29:37.pro-choice, I think your position is slightly illogical, if you are
:29:37. > :29:41.anti-abortion, it doesn't matter when the abortion take place. If
:29:41. > :29:47.your aim is to bring the number I have a borgss down, as you saw, you
:29:47. > :29:52.won't priing -- abortions down, as you saw, it won't bring them down
:29:52. > :29:57.much. You think an upper limit? don't think the streets are full of
:29:58. > :30:04.women trying to abort at a late stage. The logic of your portion is
:30:04. > :30:07.there would be -- portion, is no upper or lower limit. If you lock
:30:07. > :30:12.at countries without any upper limit, like canned dark you don't
:30:12. > :30:18.find people in the third trimester looking for an abortion. You would
:30:18. > :30:22.be in favour of an upper limit? don't think you need a limit.
:30:22. > :30:27.any kind? I genuinely feel you wouldn't find people seeking an
:30:27. > :30:32.abortion at a late stage, no. do you think it is a topical issue,
:30:32. > :30:36.suddenly? I agree that politicians are trying to create some sort of
:30:37. > :30:43.debate. I think it is great there is some sort of debate about the
:30:43. > :30:49.subject. It is important to bring the debate to the surface. What do
:30:49. > :30:52.you think? Agree with Peter, if we are talking about pre-born babies,
:30:52. > :30:58.lives starting with conception, all abortions ends the life. You are
:30:58. > :31:03.against all abortions? If every abortion ends the life of a human
:31:03. > :31:07.being, I disagree with all abortions. We have two
:31:08. > :31:11.diametrically opposed opinions, no sense of a political compromise,
:31:11. > :31:18.morally you take a position, they are diametrically opposed, that
:31:18. > :31:23.life, as you see it, is sacred, and you say choice is sacred? I'm happy
:31:23. > :31:30.to compromise at 24 weeks. That is where we are now. Presumably you
:31:30. > :31:34.were compromising at 28 weeks? Probably, yeah. Adorgs is legal
:31:34. > :31:39.right up to birth of disabled babies in this country. Six out of
:31:40. > :31:43.ten women think the rate should come down. The reason why people
:31:43. > :31:49.are changing their minds has all to do with the humanity of a baby.
:31:49. > :31:55.That is a 12--week-old baby. It is not, it is a model of of a 12--
:31:55. > :31:59.week-old baby? It is, it is a mottle of a 12--week-old baby, we
:31:59. > :32:05.know from Stuart Campbell's ultrasound, that these babies kick
:32:05. > :32:11.and twist in the womb at this stage. The data about foetal sentients in
:32:11. > :32:15.your early programme, is hot low disputed. There are a lot of
:32:15. > :32:21.neurophysiologyists and nutritionists who feel baby can
:32:21. > :32:26.feel pain and sense touch much earlier. There was a leading piece
:32:26. > :32:32.in a paediatric journal, which called a report from the royal
:32:32. > :32:39.colleges on foetal sentients and then with no clothe.
:32:39. > :32:45.He is misrepresenting the best data. The best data we have on foetal
:32:45. > :32:51.pain is that the neuropathways don't develop completely until 28
:32:51. > :32:56.weeks. That is hotly disputed. There is not evidence of whether a
:32:56. > :33:02.foetus will experience pain when it is not outside the room, and it is
:33:02. > :33:06.not conscious in utero. The ability to feel pain doesn't mean value as
:33:06. > :33:10.a human being, it is because we are humans. It is not about value as a
:33:10. > :33:15.human being, the argument you are making, every woman who finds
:33:15. > :33:18.herself with a pregnancy that she did not anticipate, goes through
:33:18. > :33:23.the thought process of whether or not she's actually ready to
:33:23. > :33:29.continue that pregnancy, and become a parent. That is where the
:33:29. > :33:35.humanity discussion? She's already a parent if she's pregnant.
:33:35. > :33:39.that becomes an issue. Do you consider yourself a parent as a
:33:39. > :33:42.pregnant woman. I'm in a situation where I'm in a stable relationship,
:33:42. > :33:46.financially stable, I'm psychologically to have a baby, I'm
:33:46. > :33:51.thrilled to have this baby. Whether it is a human life worthy of
:33:51. > :33:55.respect or not, depends on whether you want it or not. Its value is
:33:55. > :33:59.dependant on whether it is wanted, is that what you are saying?
:33:59. > :34:04.point is that people who have children are the same people who
:34:04. > :34:09.have abortions. But their pregnancy at different times in their lives
:34:09. > :34:13.means different things to them. And people are more than capable of
:34:13. > :34:18.thinking about what's most appropriate for a potential child
:34:18. > :34:22.at any point in their lives. child with potential. Those things
:34:22. > :34:28.have very little to do with how much it look like a human being, or
:34:28. > :34:32.whether the organs are formed. would agree with you, I would think
:34:32. > :34:36.whether it seems like a human, doesn't mean it is human or not, it
:34:36. > :34:40.is human by the fact that its both parents are humans. Surely all
:34:40. > :34:45.humans have a certain value no matter how big or old they are.
:34:45. > :34:51.I ask, your position, presumably, is at the point of conception that
:34:51. > :34:56.it becomes a human being. Is that a Christian position? It is a
:34:56. > :35:03.scientific position. You might as well say an egg is a human egg.
:35:03. > :35:13.egg on its own. Everything is pee tension human being. An embryo is
:35:13. > :35:14.
:35:14. > :35:23.an actual human being. I think this is a faith thing. Doctors abided by
:35:23. > :35:27.the hypocratic oath, and the BMA doctors of all faiths and no faith
:35:27. > :35:33.at all. On the basis that a human embryo, a human foetus was actually
:35:33. > :35:38.a human being with potential, rather than a potential human being.
:35:38. > :35:42.Do you mean to say the BMA opposed abortion? I'm saying the BMA in
:35:43. > :35:49.1947 called abortion the greatest crime, the BMA, they did.
:35:49. > :35:53.Jo you will find things have moved on a bit since then. Clearly the
:35:53. > :35:57.medical profession has moved from rational to irrational positions
:35:57. > :36:02.through time. The latest worry story about Iran is the Islamic
:36:02. > :36:08.Republic could have produced enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a
:36:08. > :36:12.nuclear bomb within four months, but it would take longer to make a
:36:12. > :36:18.warhead. The die hards in Israel say they will do what they have to
:36:18. > :36:21.to protect themselves. In Iran there are increasing signs that the
:36:21. > :36:26.economic sanctions on Iran are taking effect, there are shortages
:36:26. > :36:29.of everything inside. Autumn is bringing a bitter harvest
:36:30. > :36:38.to the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.
:36:38. > :36:43.Prices are rocketing. Many food stuffs by between 40-60% in four
:36:43. > :36:50.months. And diesel fuel, following the removal of Government subsidies,
:36:50. > :36:55.has quadrupled in price. People are reporting to newspaper, to TV
:36:55. > :37:00.programmes inside, that they have stopped purchasing meat. They have
:37:00. > :37:04.dropped daily products from their weekly consumption and purchase.
:37:05. > :37:10.As a result of this crisis, Iranians are coming to terms with
:37:10. > :37:15.poverty, unrest, and growing polarisation in the country. While
:37:16. > :37:21.hardliners blame foreign plots, and reformers call for change,
:37:21. > :37:26.President Ahmadinejad's hold on power is starting to appear tenuous.
:37:26. > :37:30.Iran is under severe economic pressure at the moment. The
:37:30. > :37:34.currency has fallen by 40% in the last year alone, and 75% in the
:37:34. > :37:37.last year. It is a serious crisis for the Government, and people are
:37:37. > :37:40.suffering as a result. Whatever hardship the Government's economic
:37:41. > :37:46.policies may have caused, there is growing evidence that foreign
:37:46. > :37:52.sanctions are adding to the crisis. Dramatically so, according to one
:37:52. > :37:59.student in Tehran we contacted tonight. I think madness about this
:37:59. > :38:05.atomic programme has brought us to our knees. Especially sanctions.
:38:05. > :38:11.With each new sanction the price of the dollar rises in the bazzars of
:38:11. > :38:15.Tehran. I think people see it as a political problem. And, it is a new
:38:15. > :38:20.oil boycott that seems to be having the biggest effect.
:38:20. > :38:25.The export of oil in Iran has fallen to below 800,000 barrels a
:38:25. > :38:29.day. Just four months ago it was more than 1.5 million. In that
:38:29. > :38:36.context, sanctions have been quite effective. And the impact is
:38:36. > :38:40.beginning to show theself in terms of reduced availability of foreign
:38:40. > :38:45.currencies in open markets. And the ability of importers to continue
:38:45. > :38:50.financing their purchases. international squeeze began in
:38:50. > :38:54.ernest with UN sanctions imposed in 2010, on banks, shipping companies,
:38:54. > :38:59.and other businesses tied to the Revolutionary Guards. The banking
:38:59. > :39:04.sector was hit again earlier this year, when the US froze broad
:39:04. > :39:06.catagories of Iranian Government funds, and the EU shut several
:39:07. > :39:12.Iranian banks out of the international banking transaction
:39:12. > :39:17.system. In July, the EU oil embargo came into effect. That, combined
:39:17. > :39:24.with US pressure on other countries, is already thought to have cut
:39:24. > :39:29.Iran's oil revenues by 40%. More pain is on its way for Iran's
:39:29. > :39:34.leader, the EU is about to extend its oil embargo to Iranian national
:39:34. > :39:38.gas. The country's foreign currency reserves are being whittled away,
:39:38. > :39:43.in part, supporting the Syrian Government. That's estimated to
:39:43. > :39:48.have cost Iran $10 billion already. And President Obama is under
:39:48. > :39:54.pressure, from his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, to take a
:39:54. > :39:58.tougher line still with Iran. I put the leaders of Iran on notice,
:39:58. > :40:02.that the United States and our friends and allies, will prevent
:40:02. > :40:05.them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. I will not hesitate to
:40:05. > :40:13.impose new sanctions on Iran, and will tighten the sanctions we
:40:13. > :40:16.currently have. What many now wonder is whether
:40:16. > :40:21.sanctions and economic crisis may achieve what years of diplomacy and
:40:21. > :40:27.the threat of military action, have failed to do. The suspension of
:40:27. > :40:34.Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment programme. From about the end of
:40:34. > :40:38.2009 until April 2012 thisy, Iran barely met with the P56789 plus 1
:40:38. > :40:42.that is the four Security Council powers, since April they have met
:40:42. > :40:45.three times, in Istanbul and Moscow. They have returned to the table.
:40:45. > :40:50.Sanctions have played a very big part in bringing them back to the
:40:50. > :40:54.table. But the regime and the supporters in the security
:40:54. > :40:58.apparatus still breathe defiance, recently they have threatened to
:40:58. > :41:02.banish the UN from nuclear site. They may still eat their words, and
:41:02. > :41:09.it might just be that sanctions cause that.
:41:09. > :41:14.For this long stand-off, has certainly entered a you in phase.
:41:14. > :41:24.We have with ous a Tehran-based journalist working for the Iran
:41:24. > :41:25.
:41:25. > :41:30.state TV news networking and we're joined by Clifford May, from a
:41:30. > :41:34.Conservative think-tank. Do you this -- think this shows sanctions
:41:34. > :41:38.are working? It shows it is having an impact on economy. For them to
:41:38. > :41:43.work you would want two things to happen, the Supreme Leader would
:41:43. > :41:48.have to decide that it is not worth it to have nuclear weapons f it
:41:48. > :41:54.means his economy and the -- if it means his economy and the people
:41:54. > :41:58.will have to suffer so much. Or the people of Iran would say we can no
:41:58. > :42:03.longer abide these rulers or the regime that doesn't have our
:42:03. > :42:07.interests in their heart, but want to build nuclear weapons and
:42:07. > :42:12.threatening genocide against Israel, we can't take this any more, and
:42:12. > :42:17.you see a replay of 2009, with more support. If the purpose of
:42:17. > :42:22.sanctions is to change the calculus, it hasn't happened yet. What do you
:42:22. > :42:27.think has been the cause of this unrest in Iran? There was an unrest
:42:27. > :42:34.on Wednesday, the fact is, the Government has been monitoring the
:42:34. > :42:38.unofficial money markets, and there were a number of dealers who were
:42:38. > :42:45.short-selling, a bit like Black Wednesday in Britain. Short-selling,
:42:45. > :42:51.nothing to do with sanctions? Sanctions have affected Iran, the
:42:51. > :42:55.price of goods are up 50%, the import of goods are up 150%. They
:42:55. > :43:03.have affected Iran. But have they affected Iran to the point that it
:43:03. > :43:08.should be on the knees? No, it made do with $3 a barrel during the
:43:08. > :43:14.Iran-Iraq War. It won't work that way. The US would be better advised
:43:14. > :43:17.to look at another solution for the Iranian problem. You see no
:43:17. > :43:24.possibility of the sanctions forcing the regime to either
:43:24. > :43:31.abandon its nuclear programme, as was suggested, or for people to say
:43:31. > :43:34.they won't put up the -- with the regime? Well chemical weapons
:43:34. > :43:37.shouldn't have been supplied to Saddam Hussein where it killed
:43:37. > :43:43.millions of martyrs. This is completely irrelevant? They would
:43:43. > :43:50.like their country to progress and proceed further. Also Iran's fossil
:43:50. > :43:55.fuels, rate geem argument, -- regime argument. The regime
:43:55. > :44:00.argument is a person feels finite. A good example of this is Saudi
:44:00. > :44:04.Arabia can't come up with the surplus oil to make it work.
:44:04. > :44:08.are looking sceptical? I think most Americans and people in the west
:44:08. > :44:13.would love to see the Iranians, prosperous, free, living better
:44:13. > :44:17.lives. We think Iranians, probably, are more capable of having a free
:44:17. > :44:21.country and democratic society than perhaps any peoples in the Middle
:44:21. > :44:25.East. Weish wished we could have good co-operation and progress. We
:44:25. > :44:29.can't have that with the current regime. The negotiations have gone
:44:29. > :44:35.nowhere, despite the sanctions we haven't seen a spirit of compromise
:44:35. > :44:41.on the part of the Supreme Leader, or the IRGC. I think the sanctions
:44:41. > :44:45.will have to get a great deal more harsh before the calculus changes.
:44:45. > :44:51.Or before the economy, I'm sorry to say, collapses. There will be a
:44:51. > :44:58.time at which I think there will be no foreign currency resources left
:44:58. > :45:02.in Iran, that can be facilitated. I'm sorry, I find it difficult to
:45:02. > :45:10.believe from a proponent of enhanced interrogation technique,
:45:10. > :45:13.the Iraq War. That is nothing to do with T deal with the analysis?
:45:13. > :45:17.find the goodwill a little hard to believe, and knowing which camp you
:45:17. > :45:22.come from. Meaning you take great pleasure in going into countries
:45:22. > :45:27.and rendering them like you did with Iraq. So let's stop that. Iran
:45:27. > :45:32.will not come to sneeze, I tell this, the fact of the matter is,
:45:32. > :45:38.the oil that oil and gas that you are saying you have placed under
:45:38. > :45:42.sanctions, is continuing to be told. The solution, I was here talking to
:45:42. > :45:47.Nick Burns a while back. The solution with Iran is understanding
:45:47. > :45:51.Iran. I know hardliners, such as yourself, who present a friend low
:45:51. > :45:55.face towards us u the fact of the matter is you have tried every
:45:55. > :45:58.which way the last 30 years and gotten nowhere. You have to
:45:58. > :46:04.reconsider your position, because pretence won't pay off with
:46:04. > :46:08.Iranians. The fact of the matter is, while I
:46:08. > :46:12.feel friendly towards the Iranian people, and wish I could visit. The
:46:12. > :46:17.Iranian regime in power for 30 years has been a terrible failure,
:46:17. > :46:21.the people of Iran are less free than even under the Shah. They are
:46:21. > :46:27.less prosperous than under the Shah. Iran is the leading sponsor of
:46:27. > :46:34.terrorism in the world, it is trying to develop nuclear weapons
:46:34. > :46:38.while oppressing its own people. Not since the 2009 up rising