:00:14. > :00:18.Tonight, reasons to be cheerful are three. Growth up, unemployment down,
:00:18. > :00:22.inflation down. But with 1400 British jobs lost at Ford, and no-
:00:22. > :00:28.one predicting a straight road to recovery, is the Government's
:00:28. > :00:33.austerity programme really working? From double-dip to Olympic blip,
:00:33. > :00:36.sources of long-term growth are very hard to find.
:00:36. > :00:41.We will debate the politics and explore whether the good economic
:00:41. > :00:44.news depends on where you live. We will hear from economists and
:00:44. > :00:48.business experts whether scare talk of a triple-dip recession could
:00:48. > :00:51.move from fantasy to fact. Also tonight, you turn up for a
:00:51. > :00:58.hospital appointment and find out they have lost your file, and it
:00:58. > :01:04.ends as more than just a clerical mix-up. I took the tablet involved,
:01:04. > :01:07.I regained consciousness, I was on the floor, my feet elevated,
:01:07. > :01:13.receiving an intravenous drip to revive my blood pressure. It did
:01:13. > :01:19.that much harm. As the long war in Afghanistan comes to close, there
:01:19. > :01:24.is more than a billion spent in aid, is the British Government about to
:01:25. > :01:32.abandon the Kabul Government, corrupt, and support local
:01:32. > :01:35.community groups. We will speak with our guest tonight.
:01:35. > :01:40.Good evening, for the Government today came the best news on the
:01:40. > :01:45.economy for a long time. The strongest quartly growth in five
:01:45. > :01:50.years. -- quarterly growth in five years, bringing an end to the
:01:50. > :01:55.longest double-dip recession since the 1940s, outpup rose a quarter
:01:55. > :01:59.per cent up from the previous quarter. Economy has been
:01:59. > :02:03.flatlining, which dampened any prospect that George Osborne, like
:02:03. > :02:06.his predecessor, would be singing in the bath to celebrate. Paul
:02:07. > :02:11.Mason is here with the good news and the bad and the ugly. Tell us
:02:11. > :02:17.the good news first.Le If there were dinners held and
:02:17. > :02:21.cocktail parties thrown, and the occasional Gucci handbag given away
:02:21. > :02:25.to secure the London Olympics, it was worth it. This was the Olympic
:02:25. > :02:29.effect, 1% growth in a quarter is very, very healthy, and would be
:02:29. > :02:33.the envy of any developed country. Bu however, it is not a quarter's
:02:33. > :02:37.growth or rate of change that economists worry about, it is the
:02:37. > :02:40.amount and size of the economy theself. This is the graph Mervyn
:02:40. > :02:44.King worries about, and George Osborne should. Here it is, the
:02:44. > :02:48.size of the UK economy, the amount of output over the last four years,
:02:48. > :02:54.of output over the last four years, and as it animates. We there it is.
:02:54. > :03:01.That is the problem, today's 1% surge in a quarter, that is the
:03:01. > :03:06.last bit there. Really we have a long way to go to recover where we
:03:06. > :03:09.were before the crash. This is real, because we know 200 jobs were
:03:09. > :03:13.created in the last three months. Even if they are, as some people
:03:13. > :03:20.say, part-time shop assistants, whatever, they are real jobs, and
:03:20. > :03:24.it is real growth. The problem is, can it be sustained? Can it? Is it
:03:24. > :03:29.sustainable? Look, there is evidence of a bit of a surge of,
:03:29. > :03:34.what we call, broad money. The money supply in the economy. This
:03:34. > :03:38.predates the summer of growth that we had. But economists, according
:03:38. > :03:41.to one theory, if you get a bit of a surge of money, over the next few
:03:41. > :03:44.months, it should surge into the economy in the form of growth. In
:03:44. > :03:48.other words, what that might be telling us, might be, is that
:03:48. > :03:52.quanative easing is working. If it's working we might not need any
:03:52. > :03:55.more of it. But, ultimately, the fate of the whole economy hangs on
:03:55. > :04:01.how we get out of the kind of recession we are in. The kind of
:04:01. > :04:04.recession we are in, spelled out by King only last week, is one where
:04:04. > :04:12.everything's depressed because of the amount of debt in, in the
:04:12. > :04:18.economy, in people's own lives, and until that is sorted, even with the
:04:18. > :04:23.Olympic, as we are about to see, were pretty spectacular, doesn't
:04:23. > :04:28.turn things round. The crisps you ate, the beer you drank, the gym
:04:28. > :04:32.you joined, the tickets you might have bought. Today's figures showed
:04:32. > :04:36.the Olympics did help Britain bounce back out of its double-dip
:04:36. > :04:40.recession. The Chancellor allowed himself to be mildly pleased.
:04:40. > :04:43.are plenty of risks out there, look at the data from the euro zone this
:04:43. > :04:47.week, that shows us there is still a difficult economic situation in
:04:47. > :04:51.the world. But, if we stick with what we are doing, getting the
:04:51. > :04:56.deficit down, creating jobs, fixing the deep-seated problems in the
:04:56. > :04:59.British economy, then I think you can see now that it is going to
:04:59. > :05:02.deliver the kind of underlying prosperity we want to see in this
:05:02. > :05:08.country. The breakdown of the big picture
:05:08. > :05:11.looks like this. A rebound in manufacturing, added 0.2% to GDP in
:05:11. > :05:16.the last quarter. The continued collapse of construction wiped that
:05:16. > :05:20.out. But the very strong growth of services, including Government
:05:20. > :05:24.services, boosted output by 1%. And in case you are interested, Olympic
:05:24. > :05:26.ticket sales accounted for a fifth ticket sales accounted for a fifth
:05:26. > :05:28.of that. It is very encouraging that the
:05:28. > :05:33.economy has pulled out of the recession at last, and the strength
:05:33. > :05:35.which with which it has refounded as well. The concern is this isn't
:05:35. > :05:39.necessarily a sign that the economy has momentum and will improve from
:05:39. > :05:43.here on. In fact, there are a number of indicators that suggest
:05:43. > :05:47.the economy is losing momentum, that this was just a temporary
:05:47. > :05:52.bounce, due to the bank holiday effect, and the Olympics, and as we
:05:52. > :05:56.go towards the end of the year, there is signs that growth,
:05:56. > :06:00.momentum, will slow. If the euro crisis is ultimately responsible
:06:00. > :06:05.for depressing growth here, the only certainty is, the Olympics are
:06:05. > :06:09.over, but the troubles of Europe are not.
:06:09. > :06:12.Obviously has been for the past couple of years, the political
:06:12. > :06:15.battleground, and will be through to 2015. What are the challenges
:06:15. > :06:19.for the political parties on this? We are about to hear two
:06:19. > :06:25.politicians, I doubt we will hear both of them shout, hurray, green
:06:25. > :06:29.shoots, it is all solved. In fact, the challenges are for policy
:06:29. > :06:33.makers, the policy being made, primarily, by the Bank of England,
:06:33. > :06:39.the Bank of England's quanative easing policy, as I said earlier,
:06:39. > :06:42.what may have ultimately given this some omph and some sustainability.
:06:42. > :06:46.The question being discussed in the rarified atmosphere of Central
:06:46. > :06:51.Banking, is do we need more. Do we need more quanative easing, do we
:06:52. > :06:55.print more money, do we then tear up some of those IOUs that the Bank
:06:55. > :06:59.of England is buying? In other words, to write off bits of
:06:59. > :07:03.Britain's debt. That is a serious debate going on. I suspect, and
:07:03. > :07:07.this number was so big today, and so surprisingly big, that might be
:07:07. > :07:12.on the backburner, that might have decided that bit of the debate.
:07:12. > :07:16.Then you have the question which again the Chancellor can't do much
:07:16. > :07:19.about, it is his own statistician, the Office for Budget
:07:19. > :07:23.Responsibility, is the Chancellor going to miss his deficit target.
:07:23. > :07:27.Is he actually going to miss the targets he set himself? Maybe this
:07:27. > :07:32.1% doesn't answer that one way or another. The implications are we
:07:32. > :07:36.will have to wait, the next big predictable event is the Autumn
:07:36. > :07:40.Statement by is the 5th of December? If it is judged that
:07:40. > :07:45.growth is not strong enough long- term, and this is a blip, for
:07:45. > :07:50.Britain to meet the targets it has set itself, then the choice will be
:07:50. > :07:55.more austerity, quite hard to do, given the state of the coalition.
:07:55. > :08:01.Or some tax cuts paid for by changes in Government policy, or a
:08:01. > :08:05.slowdown in austerity. There is even talk of a secret stash of �25
:08:05. > :08:08.billion, sitting in the Bank of England, that is a by-product of QE.
:08:08. > :08:11.There is all kinds of things that we are about to be discussing in
:08:11. > :08:15.the next two months. Big strategic things the Chancellor can't do.
:08:15. > :08:19.What he can't do and hasn't been able to do through policy alone is
:08:19. > :08:25.to manage growth. That growth was magiced into existence, by the very
:08:25. > :08:28.act of winning the Olympics. Chris Leslie is on Labour's
:08:28. > :08:31.Treasury team, and Michael Fallon is the Business Minister, and not
:08:31. > :08:34.often on the programme talking about good news. The good news will
:08:34. > :08:37.keep on coming, says the Prime Minister, will it? It is
:08:37. > :08:40.encouraging news, and what is happening now is all the signs seem
:08:40. > :08:43.to be pointing in the right direction. We have unemployment
:08:43. > :08:46.falling and inflation half what it was a year a these good figures
:08:46. > :08:51.today, better than the City and forecasters expected, Britain
:08:51. > :08:55.coming out of recession. There is a long way ahead. But the good news
:08:55. > :08:59.will keep on coming? It is a long road ahead, but the signs of
:08:59. > :09:03.recovery are there now and pointing in the same direction. Do you not
:09:03. > :09:07.worry that you will sound complacent when people look at the
:09:07. > :09:09.last year and in 2011 where we were in the economy? There is no
:09:09. > :09:14.complacency, that is why we are continuing to rebalance the economy,
:09:14. > :09:17.and reform in the way we get more house building done, reforming
:09:17. > :09:21.planning laws, guarantees for infrastructure, and looking at job
:09:21. > :09:23.creation, getting more finance through to small businesses. Look
:09:23. > :09:26.at private sector job creation over the last year. Since this
:09:26. > :09:33.Government came into office, we have created over a million private
:09:33. > :09:37.sector jobs. There are more people working now than in 1971. Given
:09:37. > :09:41.that caution, could you say you will rule out a triple-dip
:09:41. > :09:44.recession? Nobody can rule out the road ahead. You are not ruling that
:09:44. > :09:49.out? You can't be sure what lies ahead. More problems in the
:09:49. > :09:53.eurozone, Germany looks as if it is going backwards. What we can say,
:09:53. > :09:56.is although it is a long way ahead, these are encouraging signs,
:09:56. > :10:00.pointing in the same direction and Britain is now recovering. The
:10:00. > :10:03.confidence theself, from today's figures, I think, will be extremely
:10:03. > :10:09.important. Chris Leslie, growth up, unemployment down, inflation down,
:10:09. > :10:12.that's three bullets in the Labour Party idea that we need a Plan B,
:10:12. > :10:16.isn't there? This is positive news, but it is about time we had some
:10:16. > :10:23.good news, quite frankly, with the state of the economy. We have had
:10:23. > :10:29.two very long years of flatlining, and with the greatest respect to
:10:29. > :10:32.Michael. He he talks about it as if we shouldn't worry about it. The
:10:32. > :10:37.point is, that is a permanent hit to our productive xasty. It has
:10:37. > :10:40.meant living standards have fallen. We have seen the resilience of the
:10:40. > :10:46.economy severely hit. When you think what b what is coming.
:10:46. > :10:49.there anything you can say tonight without talking down the economy?
:10:49. > :10:53.You are. I'm not, it is perfectly reasonable to look at what is
:10:54. > :10:56.around the corner. If you look at the 80% of cuts still to be felt
:10:56. > :11:01.from the Chancellor's Spending Review. If you look at the tax
:11:01. > :11:06.rises around the corner, the living standards, the eurozone, all of
:11:06. > :11:11.those raise the key question, are we more resilient now because of
:11:11. > :11:17.Government policy, or are we just hoping this is going to be the
:11:17. > :11:21.trend for the future. I hope it is, but we need to do far more than
:11:21. > :11:25.take this complacent attitude. wish you hadn't said all that.
:11:25. > :11:27.Nobody is complacent. My job as Business Minister is to visit
:11:27. > :11:31.businesses, up and down the countries businesses are fed up
:11:31. > :11:33.with politicians like you talking down the economy. We need more
:11:33. > :11:39.confidence, we need more confidence now, and this growth figure today
:11:39. > :11:43.will give us a bit more confidence. We need action, an approach to
:11:43. > :11:46.stimulating the economy, and focusing on growth, instead of
:11:46. > :11:51.sitting back, crossing your fingers and hoping something will turn up.
:11:51. > :11:56.Because the strength of the economy is not good enough. We have, not
:11:56. > :11:59.only have we got a flat economy. There you go again, talking it down.
:11:59. > :12:07.I hope it will get better. We have to make better progress. You made
:12:07. > :12:10.that point. But the OBR said austerity reduced real GDP in
:12:10. > :12:13.2011/2012 by 1.4%, the argument is this Government has made things
:12:13. > :12:17.harder for people unnecessarily and cut back on growth T would have
:12:17. > :12:21.been better if you had not done that? We had to get the deficit
:12:21. > :12:25.under control, we were spending �160 billion more than coming in
:12:25. > :12:29.taxes, that was a worse deficit than Greece. We had to get that
:12:29. > :12:33.sorted out. We are slowly doing. That we have dealt with a quarter.
:12:33. > :12:37.At the expense of growth? We have dealt with a quarter of it all
:12:37. > :12:41.already. Statement we have been trying to rebalance the economy. --
:12:41. > :12:46.tailt we have been trying to rebalance the economy. -- at the
:12:46. > :12:48.same time we have been trying to rebalance the economy, we have too
:12:48. > :12:52.much expenditure, we are rebalancing the economy,
:12:52. > :12:56.encouraging the economy. You will hit your fiscal targets, we will
:12:56. > :12:59.hear in the Autumn Statement? will see from the independent OBR
:12:59. > :13:02.where we are with the targets, it is not up to us, we have an
:13:02. > :13:05.independent body that will do that. There is a big point here.
:13:05. > :13:08.don't know if you have hit the fiscal targets? We will see from
:13:08. > :13:12.the OBR if we have hit them. Times have been tough over the last
:13:12. > :13:17.couple of years, a pay freeze ayes cross the public sector, we have
:13:17. > :13:23.tried to help with the council tax freeze and so on. The signs are we
:13:23. > :13:25.are coming out of recession. talk as if the last few years don't
:13:26. > :13:29.matter. There are careers affected and businesses gone under, what
:13:29. > :13:32.will you do to make up the ground four our lost competitiveness. As
:13:32. > :13:36.we have been standing still, Germany have been accelerating and
:13:36. > :13:43.the United States. They have not been accelerating. They have grown
:13:43. > :13:46.at 3.3% in the last few years, hour growth is 0.6% over a two-year
:13:46. > :13:51.period. While we have been standing still, the strength of our economy
:13:51. > :13:55.relative to those other economies has fallen back. We need to regain
:13:55. > :14:00.ground. I need a strategy Government about regaining the
:14:00. > :14:03.ground we have lost? Strategy has been there all along, it is to
:14:03. > :14:07.encourage private sector employment, while you are obsessed with public
:14:07. > :14:09.spending. It is to back the new technologies and industries,
:14:09. > :14:13.industries outside London and the south-east. To ensure that new jobs
:14:13. > :14:16.are being created. We are doing that all the time. The Ford
:14:16. > :14:21.announcement today was very disappointing for those who make
:14:21. > :14:24.Transit vans in Southampton, but they committed to the new low-
:14:24. > :14:27.carbon diesel engine made in Dagenham, a huge commitment by Ford.
:14:27. > :14:31.Other companies are coming in behind them, and vesting in Britain.
:14:31. > :14:36.We can't start talking the economy down. On that point, would you like
:14:36. > :14:45.to take this opportunity to apologise for leaving us with a
:14:45. > :14:48.structural deficit as Ed Balls, the shadow Chancellor pointed out?
:14:48. > :14:50.Nobody knew the economic crisis would be. You have been very weak
:14:50. > :14:54.on this? The Conservatives said they would match the spending plans
:14:54. > :14:57.of the last Government. Would you like to apologise for getting all
:14:57. > :15:02.that wrong? All sorts of lessons should be learned. Let me tell you
:15:02. > :15:06.one thing, the economy was recovering in 2010, we were growing.
:15:06. > :15:08.You had a worse deficit than Greece. George Osborne pulled that rug of
:15:08. > :15:14.confidence from underneath the economy, we have been treading
:15:14. > :15:18.water for two years. That has hit our strength as an economy,
:15:18. > :15:21.worldwide. There is a serious cost. Where do you think the million new
:15:21. > :15:25.private sector jobs have come from. You are satisfied with the plan and
:15:25. > :15:28.the way things are. Tell that to people's living standards have been
:15:28. > :15:31.severely affected, tell the people whose careers have been hurt by the
:15:31. > :15:35.policies you have put in play, and, in fact, we have so many more
:15:35. > :15:39.problems around the corner. There you go again you are talking it
:15:39. > :15:44.down. You don't think the tax rises are a problem or the public service
:15:44. > :15:47.cuts, 80% not. It is keeping him going, it is talking the economy
:15:47. > :15:51.down again. I'm being realistic. You are not, you are talking us
:15:51. > :15:55.down. On that point of realisim or talking it down, we will leave it
:15:55. > :15:58.there. Thank you very much. Today's growth figures are an
:15:58. > :16:02.estimate based on the country as a whole, that means the good news has
:16:02. > :16:07.not been evenly spread around. Some areas of the country may find
:16:07. > :16:11.today's talk of recovery a strange notion. We have a sense of what the
:16:11. > :16:14.economists' figures mean for the real economy. We have been to
:16:14. > :16:18.Lincoln today. Amid the atrocious weather, which
:16:18. > :16:21.held back the rest of the UK economy, Lincolnshire also got to
:16:21. > :16:26.taste the Olympic spirit, as the torch made its way through the city.
:16:26. > :16:29.But it will take an awful lot more than Olympic ticket sales to raise
:16:29. > :16:33.average incomes here in Lincolnshire, which currently lie
:16:34. > :16:39.in the bottom five regions in the country. Average salaries in
:16:39. > :16:42.Lincolnshire are around �14,500, much less than half those in
:16:42. > :16:45.central London. Many work in minimum wage jobs, like
:16:45. > :16:49.construction. But house completions have halved in four years, so it is
:16:49. > :16:54.tough for builders here to make any money. I think it has been a
:16:54. > :16:58.struggle for a number of years, to be honest. The levels of activity
:16:58. > :17:01.that we have got at the moment are only really being sustained by
:17:01. > :17:06.Government initiatives that are helping out. And the problem with
:17:06. > :17:09.the Government initiatives is bureaucracy and red tape has
:17:09. > :17:15.delayed those initiatives? They take a long time to come to from
:17:15. > :17:18.you i, the New Buy Scheme we applied for six months ago, we are
:17:18. > :17:23.frustrated we can't put that in place. The other minimum wage
:17:23. > :17:27.sector is agriculture. Farming now accounts for 6% of Lincolnshire's
:17:27. > :17:33.income, down from 12%. This year's awful wet weather didn't help
:17:33. > :17:37.either. Even the warmer third quarter was deemed too dark by many
:17:37. > :17:43.farmers. And the third minimum wage sector, mass manufacturing, is also
:17:43. > :17:47.depressing rather than adding to the local economy. The Kimberly
:17:47. > :17:51.Clarke nappy-making factory said it would close yesterday, a week after
:17:51. > :17:56.Seven Seas said they would be shutting their Humberside plant.
:17:56. > :17:59.But if Lincolnshire can get more place like this, they would be --
:17:59. > :18:05.places like this, they would be very pleased. The smell is medieval,
:18:05. > :18:10.but the plant brand new. It automatically screens, separates
:18:11. > :18:15.and pulps 800,000 bottles an hour. It is the largest and most
:18:15. > :18:18.profitable recycling plant in the world H Coca-Cola not been their
:18:18. > :18:21.junior partners had might never have been built, due to the banks
:18:21. > :18:27.being unwilling to lend. This is the finished product, this is the
:18:27. > :18:32.material that came in the front door as a waste product, gone
:18:32. > :18:37.through all our processes and now suitable for manufacturing into new
:18:37. > :18:42.plastic bottles. Would you regard yourself as optimistic?S Absolutely,
:18:42. > :18:47.I'm a glass -- absolutely, I'm glass half full person, the future
:18:47. > :18:50.is not just bright for this future, the sector, and the green sector as
:18:50. > :18:53.a whole. Oil will run out at some point. People should be concerned
:18:53. > :18:56.about the amount of people on the planet, the consumption going on.
:18:56. > :19:02.We have to reduce waste and reinvent waste, that is exactly
:19:02. > :19:12.what we are doing here. It ticks so many boxes, creates jobs, adds
:19:12. > :19:12.
:19:12. > :19:17.value, it is all good news. Eco Plastics not alone. See minutes
:19:17. > :19:21.has a turbine engine plant in Lincoln, and it is expanding.
:19:21. > :19:25.Lincolnshire is no microcosm of the UK economy, it is the least
:19:25. > :19:30.ethically diversified and the most rural. It is going through similar
:19:30. > :19:33.pangs of rebalancing away from low tech and into high-tech. If average
:19:33. > :19:36.incomes continue to stay low, it is hard to see future generations
:19:36. > :19:42.staying in the county of their birth.
:19:42. > :19:50.With us to assess all of this are WPP advertising group chief
:19:50. > :19:56.executive, Sir Martin Sorrell, the director of the think-tank Marquez
:19:56. > :20:00.and Ann Pettifor from the office of -- Macroeconomics, and Ann Pettifor
:20:00. > :20:06.from the Office of Budget Responsibility. A few months ago we
:20:06. > :20:10.were all doom and gloom, and here we are cheery on 1% growth, I don't
:20:10. > :20:15.take either too seriously what I learned from the Bank of England is
:20:15. > :20:19.the first estimates of GDP are not where things turn out to be. It
:20:19. > :20:22.could go down or up. It doesn't change the picture we have for some
:20:22. > :20:27.time, which is fundamentally this economy is growing a little bit,
:20:27. > :20:30.but not fast enough. The figures are uneven because of the Olympics,
:20:30. > :20:34.the Jubilee, lots of special factors. Lots of special factor,
:20:34. > :20:38.are you cheered up, obviously it is better than the alternatives?
:20:38. > :20:43.Absolutely, it is good news. But there are three big threats facing
:20:43. > :20:48.us, still, the first is the vast overhang of debt on the private
:20:48. > :20:51.banking sector, and the fact that hasn't been handled, restructured
:20:51. > :20:56.or mgtd. Secondly, synchronised austerity around the world. The
:20:56. > :20:59.United States, the whole of Europe, and increasingly Japan, and China
:20:59. > :21:04.unwilling to come to the rescue of the rich western countries again.
:21:04. > :21:08.For me, thirdly, this links to what Paul was saying, is the failure of
:21:08. > :21:12.the monetary authorities to co- ordinate and to work with the
:21:12. > :21:16.fiscal authorities to manage, if you like, this injection of money
:21:16. > :21:21.into the economy, so that it is used for productive purposes. It is
:21:21. > :21:25.that failure of those two big institutions and authorities to
:21:25. > :21:28.come together, that means money is being printed and sprayed around,
:21:28. > :21:32.and goodness knows where it is going, and those who need money,
:21:32. > :21:38.the productive end of the economy are not getting it. And the
:21:38. > :21:42.Government is standing back saying nothing to do with them.
:21:42. > :21:45.You talked about austerity being a straitjacket as far as growth is
:21:45. > :21:51.concerned. Did you take Michael Fallon's point we had to do it, and
:21:51. > :21:54.the Government had to do it, and broadly, the strategy is working?
:21:54. > :21:58.In the short-term I agree what the Government has done. It hasn't
:21:58. > :22:02.actually lowered spending, it has reduced the rate of increase of
:22:02. > :22:06.spending, it is up from �700 billion, projected to be �750
:22:07. > :22:10.billion in four years time. They reduced the rate of increase, lower
:22:10. > :22:13.interest rates, improved the credit rating and et cetera. We announced
:22:13. > :22:18.our results, they are the lowest rate of growth across the world we
:22:18. > :22:25.have seen he across the world for two years, it was poor quarter for
:22:25. > :22:31.us. The UK was wrong, up about 4-5% in the quarter, this year 3-4%,
:22:31. > :22:35.last year we have up 8%, added 2,000 jobs. Our position in the UK
:22:35. > :22:45.has been strong. There are four things people are worried about in
:22:45. > :22:51.business, September was a pivitol pwhont month, we -- month, we saw a
:22:51. > :22:55.decrease in business. Brazil, Russia and all the growth economies,
:22:55. > :23:00.the BRICs, increasing tensions in the Middle East, Syria, Lebanon,
:23:00. > :23:06.the Israelis attacking, Iranian and nuclear institutions or even visa
:23:06. > :23:12.versa, last but not least, probably the elephant in the room, is what's
:23:12. > :23:16.going to happen in the US after the election. What l Romney or a re-
:23:16. > :23:21.elected Obama -- will Romney or a re-elected Obama, I think Obama has
:23:21. > :23:25.the advantage, it will be close, there will be a House of
:23:25. > :23:30.Representatives controlled by the Republicans, and the Democrats
:23:30. > :23:33.controlling the Senate, we will be in that gridlock. Maybe some
:23:33. > :23:38.modified plan, along the lines we have seen before, which President
:23:38. > :23:46.Obama wanted to bring in, and then ignore the report that he wanted to
:23:46. > :23:51.bring in a Simpson Bowles like after the election. The preliminary
:23:51. > :23:55.Ications are that we are not masters of our own destiny, that
:23:55. > :23:59.George Osborne has levers he can pull, but the factors are beyond
:23:59. > :24:02.his control or any politician's control in this country?
:24:02. > :24:06.absolutely agree with you. The big threats from the UK economy often
:24:06. > :24:10.come from abroad. One of the things that went wrong in the decade up to
:24:10. > :24:14.the financial crisis, is a risk that came up from abroad, problems
:24:14. > :24:18.in America, that affected us here, we have had big oil price rises,
:24:18. > :24:22.that is what has held the economy back. It wasn't just austerity. It
:24:22. > :24:25.is absolutely right. I want to take issue with something Anne said, you
:24:25. > :24:29.commented on the fact, I feel sensitive about quanative easing,
:24:29. > :24:34.since I was there when we started it off. It was perfectly good
:24:34. > :24:37.evidence that it was very helpful to companies in the initial stages,
:24:37. > :24:40.it helped them borrow more cheaply. It is unfair to say of the
:24:40. > :24:43.Government they are not doing anything today, the new Funding For
:24:43. > :24:47.Lending scheme is a good scheme that should help get credit going
:24:47. > :24:51.in the economy. The truth is, against the head winds they face,
:24:51. > :24:55.there is a limit to what can be done. Because you can't suddenly
:24:55. > :25:02.say to businesses, with the background of all the things that
:25:02. > :25:08.Martin has set out, that everything will be Rosie and let's leave it.
:25:08. > :25:10.just think that the banks' lending numbers that came out recently are
:25:10. > :25:14.really bizarre. They show firms in the economy are lending to banks,
:25:14. > :25:18.and banks are not lending to the real economy. There is negative
:25:19. > :25:22.lending. That is bizarre. It is almost unheard of in our history.
:25:22. > :25:26.To some extent that is true. I say this, of course the Chancellor can
:25:26. > :25:30.do something about the overhang of private debt, but by the utter
:25:30. > :25:34.focus on public debt, and ignoring the vast overhang of private debt,
:25:34. > :25:39.the Chancellor is avoiding dealing with what is a real big structural
:25:39. > :25:43.threat to the economy. You have to give the economy some credit, just
:25:43. > :25:47.this week the supply chain financing move was an attempt to
:25:47. > :25:53.try to provide an alternative to bank financing. What we saw,
:25:53. > :25:57.interestingly, we went to the ECB to see Mario Draghi the week before
:25:57. > :26:01.last, 23 of the companies out of 25 said they were having a tough
:26:01. > :26:04.September. What surprised me was the ECB was surprised by that. What
:26:04. > :26:08.was described as the September *Cliff. I thought that the
:26:08. > :26:13.quanative easing we saw from Draghi and Bernard, and the quanative
:26:13. > :26:18.easing we saw from -- Bernanke and the Chinese, signalled they saw
:26:18. > :26:23.what was happening, and I hoped they had seen it before business
:26:23. > :26:26.saw it. Lending contracted today businesses in the eurozone in
:26:26. > :26:32.September, which explains the challenges you face. Businesses are
:26:32. > :26:36.sitting on �2 trillion -- $2 trillion of net capital. They are
:26:36. > :26:40.afraid of investing that, firstly, because of austerity, and secondly,
:26:40. > :26:44.because customers are not walking through the door. The point Michael
:26:44. > :26:48.Fallon made, was figures like this will boost confidence and release
:26:48. > :26:50.some cash? I'm not sure that is really true. Partly because, we
:26:50. > :26:55.have all been talking about the international factor, the worries
:26:55. > :26:59.about what will happen in the US, post election, the fact that the US
:26:59. > :27:03.is far from resolved, the fact that China seems to be slowing down.
:27:03. > :27:08.Everybody knows the big spending cuts, in a sense, are still to come
:27:08. > :27:11.in the UK. The fiscal tightening will worsen next year, against that
:27:11. > :27:16.background companies may invest a bit more. One day in the recovery
:27:16. > :27:21.we will surprise and the recoverly will emerge. I would be surprised
:27:21. > :27:25.if today's data is the move on to that summit upwards. If the
:27:25. > :27:29.Chancellor does miss his targets, Autumn Statement could result in,
:27:29. > :27:34.presumably, tax rises, further spending cut, more austerity, one
:27:34. > :27:37.way or another, or him saying fiscal targets don't matter? He's
:27:37. > :27:40.certainly not going to say they don't matter. He might say, and
:27:40. > :27:43.personally I think this would be a reasonable thing to say, that
:27:44. > :27:49.various things happen, particularly the eurozone crisis, since they
:27:49. > :27:52.came into office, and he will take a little bit longer, that would
:27:52. > :27:59.seem perfectly sensible. There was this lost decade and we wouldn't
:27:59. > :28:03.see a return until 2018. reduced to predict a double-dip
:28:03. > :28:07.recession, I will give you the opportunity toe predict a triple-
:28:07. > :28:12.dip recession? No, we are bouncing along the bottom, it is corrugated
:28:12. > :28:16.and it is painful. There is a painful analogy, but we will be
:28:16. > :28:20.bumping along the bottom, in western Europe, including the UK,
:28:20. > :28:25.less so UK and Germany, they are bookends with France, Italy and
:28:25. > :28:29.Spain, sandwiched inbetween in more difficulty. Anne, triple-dip?
:28:29. > :28:32.think there will be, because we precisely have not dealt with the
:28:32. > :28:39.banking crisis, and precisely because of synchronised austerity,
:28:39. > :28:42.I'm with the IMF, very scared about the synchronised austerity, and
:28:42. > :28:46.with the Governor of the Bank of England, who said yesterday, unless
:28:46. > :28:49.the private banking sector was prepared to take losses, we will
:28:49. > :28:53.never be able to address the crisis, because we have the overhang of
:28:53. > :28:58.debt which is the real drag on the real economy. I kind of agree with
:28:58. > :29:02.that. I'm not sure we have had a double-dip recession, but whether
:29:02. > :29:06.or not growth goes up or down, we have an extended period in front of
:29:06. > :29:09.us of sluggish growth, where we have to slowly get to grips with
:29:09. > :29:14.these problems. It is not going to be easy and there is not much
:29:14. > :29:17.Governments can do about it. Corrugated bottoms all round! It is
:29:17. > :29:21.a tale sadly for many of us, you turn up for the hospital
:29:21. > :29:24.appointment, and the records are not there and the test results are
:29:24. > :29:30.lost. Now medical bodies, backed by the Government, hope to avoid, that
:29:30. > :29:33.by giving you, the patient, access to your own medical note. They call
:29:33. > :29:36.it giving patients control. Some fear it is a means of shifting
:29:36. > :29:44.responsibility for the failings of the health service, on to the
:29:44. > :29:50.patients themselves. The first year has revealed what we
:29:50. > :29:57.all expected, a vast amount of silent good work, a great deal of
:29:58. > :30:02.relief, and a great deal of gratitude. Nye Bevan's devotion to
:30:02. > :30:10.establishing the National Health Service was inspirational, Don
:30:10. > :30:13.Atwell was one of the multitudes he inspired. His direct influence
:30:13. > :30:16.inspired me to become a trainee administration manager in the
:30:16. > :30:21.National Health Service. That was at 16 years of age. You were
:30:21. > :30:26.working with medical records from the beginning? Booking outpatient
:30:26. > :30:30.appointments, meeting the patients, and checking them in. 60 years on
:30:30. > :30:40.Don's talent for keeping records is a skill that is helping his very
:30:40. > :30:46.
:30:46. > :30:50.survival. Every week three million people use the NHS, the notes
:30:50. > :30:54.relating to their treatment are stored in depots many niels away,
:30:54. > :30:59.on many, many sheets of paper. This is a typical medical records
:30:59. > :31:03.library. There are scores like this, all over the country. This is in
:31:03. > :31:08.Birmingham, where there are 1.4 million patients' medical records
:31:08. > :31:11.being kept. They go back decades. But the system is cumbersome,
:31:12. > :31:17.complicated, and it is collapsing under the weight of so much vital
:31:17. > :31:21.information stored on paper. It is just not working.
:31:21. > :31:26.In my experience, notes are never where you want them to be. If you
:31:26. > :31:31.want them in cardiology, they are in orthopaedics, or the kidney team,
:31:31. > :31:36.et cetera. Patients with multiple problems, under many departments,
:31:36. > :31:40.may have their notes all over the hospital. Maybe two, three or four
:31:40. > :31:43.files in different places. It is causing real problems for patients,
:31:43. > :31:47.is it? It causes terrible problems for patients. You can imagine
:31:47. > :31:53.coming to clinic with a complex medical problem, and seeing a
:31:53. > :31:58.doctor who has got one, thin, folder with a blank sheet of paper
:31:58. > :32:02.saying "temporary notes, can't find notes". For 25 years Don has had a
:32:02. > :32:06.chronic heart condition, these days he minutes and logs every hospital
:32:06. > :32:09.appointment and test results for himself. He has learned, from
:32:09. > :32:12.experience, when he goes for treatment, and he has been
:32:12. > :32:16.everywhere, too often his medical records won't turn up. From his
:32:16. > :32:20.local hospital in Chester, he has been to London, Liverpool,
:32:20. > :32:26.Cambridge, Cheshire, Bristol, Manchester, back and forth, again
:32:26. > :32:32.and again. The health service should have
:32:32. > :32:37.built up a large fail on him, but if they did, we will never know.
:32:37. > :32:41.arrived at the hospital and greeted with the comment, I'm sorry we have
:32:41. > :32:45.bad news, you can't make this up, but we have lost your records.
:32:45. > :32:51.your records? Lost your records. What sort of records? 25 years of
:32:51. > :32:57.clinical records have got lost. As Don will tell you, when the
:32:57. > :33:02.records aren't there, there can be trouble. I'm in the cardiac ward
:33:02. > :33:11.and a consultant says to me, I want you to take this tablet. I said I
:33:11. > :33:14.can't tell take that, it -- I can't take that, it will have an adverse
:33:14. > :33:22.reaction. He said he wouldn't give me pain medication if I didn't take
:33:22. > :33:29.it. So I took it. He regained consciousness, on the floor, feet
:33:29. > :33:34.up, and receiving an intravenous drip to relieve my blood pressure.
:33:34. > :33:37.To avoid such catastrophes, University College Hospital
:33:37. > :33:43.Birmingham has been one of the first hospitals to transfer all
:33:43. > :33:46.records on toe confusion. It means confusion over drug doses has been
:33:46. > :33:50.dramatically reduced. Are you saying it makes a difference to
:33:50. > :33:55.patients' mortality on computer rather than paper? We have just
:33:55. > :33:59.published something in a scientific journal that demonstrates a more
:33:59. > :34:03.than 16% reduction in mortality emergencies, which results in the
:34:03. > :34:06.misdosage of drugs, give patients the drugs they are described and
:34:06. > :34:10.fewer die. We have 100 patients a year fewer dying in this
:34:10. > :34:13.organisation than we did three years ago. In Birmingham they say
:34:13. > :34:18.computerisation has helped. They are going further, trying to give
:34:18. > :34:21.patients access to their records on-line. This woman, who has
:34:21. > :34:26.rheumatoid arthritis, is one of the first to benefit. What you can get
:34:26. > :34:30.on the system now is they will show a little graph over time, my iron
:34:30. > :34:35.levels being a perfect example, started dropping off around
:34:35. > :34:40.November last year. It wasn't quite so obvious until you could see it
:34:40. > :34:46.in graph format, there it was. Plain as day. Do you feel better
:34:46. > :34:56.informed? I do. I have more of a basis for asking questions. But he
:34:56. > :35:01.willen works in the NHS as an information -- Elln works in the
:35:01. > :35:05.NHS, and has been aptitude for statistics. Patients are given
:35:05. > :35:08.freer access to their own medical records. It is an idea increasingly
:35:09. > :35:13.popular with medical bodies, like The Royal College of Physicians.
:35:13. > :35:16.Others argue in the long-term, it will simply mean doctors shuffling
:35:16. > :35:21.their responsibility, on to those least able to cope, their patients,
:35:22. > :35:25.the sick. The Government has said, by getting
:35:25. > :35:29.access to their notes, patients will have control over their
:35:29. > :35:34.treatment. It is right in line with Government thinking. And leading
:35:34. > :35:41.doctors' groups are also keen. most, I think, it is very welcome.
:35:41. > :35:47.They want to move in this direction. But it is because they want
:35:47. > :35:52.patients to have the opportunity to manage their own disorder, to make
:35:52. > :35:54.decisions. It is opportunity but is it responsibility? It carries
:35:54. > :36:00.responsibility. So the patient has responsibility rather than the
:36:00. > :36:04.physician? Not rather than, as well as. Duncan Diamond, a consultant
:36:04. > :36:07.for 40 years, says patients should be informed, but warns full access
:36:07. > :36:13.to their records will create further problems. I struggle to see
:36:13. > :36:17.how that will put the patient in control. A lot of the medical
:36:17. > :36:22.records will use terminology and numbers that nobody outside the
:36:22. > :36:25.medical profession is familiar with. That seems to me to introduce yet
:36:25. > :36:29.another potential gremlin into a difficult system. What about the
:36:29. > :36:32.notion that the patients could at least be the backstop, at least
:36:32. > :36:38.they would have control over their own? How do they co-ordinate it.
:36:38. > :36:41.They can come in and say hello doctor X, and I saw doctor. A and B,
:36:41. > :36:45.here are the records that your organisation is unable to find, I
:36:45. > :36:48.have got them. It is still a terrible indictment of the system,
:36:48. > :36:56.that relies upon someone who is ill and vulnerable, and maybe not at
:36:56. > :37:01.their best, worried, anxious, with anxious, worried relative to tro
:37:01. > :37:07.dues an add minutes -- relatives, to produce an administrative task
:37:08. > :37:11.that hospitals should do. Many think patients will need a
:37:11. > :37:14.degree of sophistication. What about those patients who aren't
:37:14. > :37:19.able? Those patients won't pick up the challenge and will continue to
:37:19. > :37:23.feel they want to be managed on a rather one-sided basis. What will
:37:23. > :37:28.happen to them? We will continue to do it that way, for those patients
:37:28. > :37:33.who want to engage much more in shared decision-making, shared
:37:33. > :37:39.management, we are right up for it and we want to see that. Some, like
:37:39. > :37:46.Don, see this as blind stumbling towards a two-teir health service w
:37:46. > :37:50.patients in the know, like him, OK, but the rest left floundering..
:37:50. > :37:54.Because I have argued and chased, but you can't expect the ordinary
:37:54. > :37:59.person to do that. It is not feasible. And ever more removed, he
:37:59. > :38:06.fears, from the dreams he still nurtures for the NHS.
:38:06. > :38:12.Britain has spent more than billion pounds in aid to Afghanistan. But a
:38:12. > :38:15.report by MPs raised the sposability that it may have been
:38:15. > :38:24.better -- possibility that it may have been better to give less to
:38:24. > :38:28.the Government and more to the local groups. The litmus test on
:38:28. > :38:32.whether British and US troops have succeeded is whether the lives of
:38:32. > :38:39.women have been improved for the better.
:38:39. > :38:49.My guests are with me. Laura Jane Patient of the British
:38:49. > :38:50.
:38:50. > :38:53.Are the people of Afghanistan significantly better off now than a
:38:53. > :38:57.few years ago? They are better off, but there is a long way to go on
:38:57. > :39:02.things like women's rights. I think of the project on improving women's
:39:02. > :39:06.rights in Afghanistan as maybe 10- 20% of the way achieved since 200.
:39:06. > :39:11.There is a huge way to go, which is why the continued support of the
:39:11. > :39:16.international community, after 2014, is so crucial. But the question is,
:39:16. > :39:21.where should that support be directed? Do you think that after
:39:21. > :39:25.2014, those advances, modest though they may be, are going to be
:39:25. > :39:29.sustainable, or Afghanistan will just go back to the way it was?
:39:29. > :39:32.think there is a real danger of the progress that's been made turning
:39:32. > :39:38.around and going back and in the wrong direction. I think in terms
:39:38. > :39:41.of what the best way is to prevent that, what the best way is to
:39:41. > :39:45.deliver services, it varies from sector to sector and region to
:39:45. > :39:49.region, across the country. What donors need to do, they need to
:39:49. > :39:53.look hard at what is going to be the most effective way of
:39:53. > :39:58.delivering services to the people who need them. Sir William, the
:39:58. > :40:01.argument, according to the argument appearing to be made by MPs today,
:40:01. > :40:07.is the Afghan Government is fundamentally pretty useless and
:40:07. > :40:11.pretty corrupt, we all know that. Perhaps more money and more effort
:40:11. > :40:14.should be spent on other people, NGOs and so on, avoiding the
:40:14. > :40:19.Government where possible. What do you make of that argument? I think
:40:19. > :40:25.it is a forked choice. You have to do both. The reality is, if you
:40:25. > :40:28.only invest in NGOs, and there is a capacity problem here, not many
:40:28. > :40:33.NGOs can effectively do what we want them to do, those who are
:40:33. > :40:37.effective we are supporting, I say "we", I'm no longer responsible for
:40:37. > :40:42.this. The Government is definitely supporting. Unless you try to help
:40:42. > :40:46.the Government. The structure of the state in Afghanistan and to
:40:46. > :40:49.improve it, whatever you do through an NGO network will be short lived.
:40:49. > :40:52.Isn't part of the problem that the British and American Government,
:40:52. > :40:56.because of justifications for the war, in keeping troops and losing
:40:56. > :40:59.lives in the war, have had to be a bit softer on the Kabul Government
:40:59. > :41:02.in public, than they were in private, and you know some of the
:41:02. > :41:07.terrible difficulty with that Government, it is not really
:41:07. > :41:11.functioning very well is it? would all love the Kabul Government
:41:11. > :41:16.to be more effective and less corrupt. But it is a country which
:41:16. > :41:20.has had a Government which for 30 years has been in internal conflict.
:41:20. > :41:25.So overnight it won't be reformed. I disagree with the premises that
:41:25. > :41:30.the lit tus test will be the situation of women after don litmus
:41:30. > :41:34.test will be the situation of women over ten years. The reason we went
:41:34. > :41:41.in was to free Afghanistan from a terrorist organisation. The litmus
:41:41. > :41:44.test will be leaving a functioning state that has the prospect of
:41:44. > :41:50.succeeding. We have to address women's issues. There are five
:41:50. > :41:57.million kids in school, 40% of them are girls. Education for girls is a
:41:57. > :42:02.fundamental building block for the future. What do you make of that
:42:02. > :42:06.argument, that women are not the reason why we went into Afghanistan
:42:06. > :42:11.and not the reason why billions were poured into the country?
:42:11. > :42:14.don't agree, there was a lot of rhetoric about the evils of the
:42:14. > :42:17.Taliban and the horrible state of women, it was used very stragically
:42:18. > :42:21.as way to justify the war. I feel like a lot of people, including
:42:21. > :42:24.people like Tony Blair, and Cherie Blair, made promises to Afghan
:42:24. > :42:28.women at the time of the invasion, and this is the moment where we
:42:28. > :42:32.really see whether those promises will be kept or not. Do you see the
:42:33. > :42:36.point that you can, of course, fund NGO, but you can't stuff them full
:42:36. > :42:40.of money. And without a functions state, not much they will do will
:42:40. > :42:45.last. There is there has to be a functioning state left behind in
:42:45. > :42:47.Afghanistan, or the whole project will crumble? I think it is, of
:42:48. > :42:52.course, important to have a functioning state. Is it possible
:42:52. > :42:57.for the UK to create a functioning state in Afghanistan. I don't think
:42:57. > :43:00.it is within the UK's power. The state may be functioning or not, it
:43:00. > :43:03.may continue to function or not. There are a lot of unknowns ahead.
:43:03. > :43:08.But this report that came out today does a really good job of
:43:08. > :43:11.illustrating some of the ways in which NGOs can deliver services on
:43:12. > :43:17.the ground, in areas that the Government just can't achieve that.
:43:17. > :43:21.So I don't see any reason to be sceptical about funding NGOs, and I
:43:21. > :43:25.don't see funding NGOs as undermining the role of the
:43:25. > :43:31.Government. We see services delivered through NGOs in many
:43:31. > :43:33.countries. The Government has a role in regulating those NGOs,
:43:33. > :43:39.licensing them, providing quality assurance. That doesn't undermine
:43:39. > :43:46.or go around the Government. William, do you worry that when
:43:46. > :43:49.British people see the news tonight, and two more British soldiers named
:43:49. > :43:55.victims of the fighting there. And they will look on that money that
:43:55. > :43:58.has been spent, and they will look with some concern to the future and
:43:58. > :44:02.what happens after 2014 a lot of people thinking it is a waste?
:44:02. > :44:08.understand it, I don't think it will have been a waste. I think at
:44:08. > :44:12.the end of 2014 which the time the troops withdraw. It is not end of
:44:12. > :44:16.our time in Afghanistan, it is the combat engagment. We will continue
:44:16. > :44:19.to work on things, building the state, making sure they can collect
:44:19. > :44:23.taxes. I think it is false choice. I'm not arguing we shouldn't
:44:23. > :44:27.support NGOs and only the state. We are actually doing both. And I
:44:27. > :44:30.think that's the important thing to remember. That at the same time you
:44:30. > :44:34.are trying to support women's groups, empower civil society, and
:44:34. > :44:38.do what you can, you are also, at the same time, trying to make sure