:00:12. > :00:16.Hello from Washington. By this time tomorrow, we shall be about to
:00:16. > :00:20.learn who is to take on the Tennessee of the White House behind
:00:20. > :00:28.me, and the role of leader of the free world. Could Obama really lose
:00:28. > :00:36.Today The Boss, summoned the aid of The Boss. I stood with President
:00:36. > :00:42.Obama four years ago, I'm proud to be standing here with him today.
:00:42. > :00:46.Because he promised me a ride on Air Force One! His challenger kept
:00:46. > :00:50.on hammering home the same, unadorned, message. I know how to
:00:50. > :00:55.change the nation, how to get it back on course, how to create jobs,
:00:55. > :01:00.how to get a balanced budget, how to get rise in take home pay.
:01:00. > :01:03.mystery, of course, for a visitor to this country s how a man won
:01:03. > :01:07.such a resounding endorsement from the American people, could
:01:07. > :01:15.apparently have put it all at risk. What happened to this charismatic
:01:15. > :01:19.presidency to put it all on hazard, was he dealt a bad hand, or did he
:01:19. > :01:23.misplay it. In Miami, George Bush's brother seems confident he knows
:01:23. > :01:27.who will reap the benefit. numbers are up a bit, I'm pretty
:01:28. > :01:34.optimistic, that in Florida, at least, Governor Romney will win.
:01:34. > :01:40.Tonight, in London, after Newsnight reports, allegations of a cover-up
:01:40. > :01:44.in the North Wales abuse inquiry, David Cameron acts. I will ask a
:01:44. > :01:48.senior, independent figure, to lead an urgent investigation into
:01:48. > :01:52.whether the original inquiry was properly instituted and did its job.
:01:52. > :01:55.The former care home resident who now alleges abuse by a senior
:01:55. > :01:58.Conservative politician in the 1970s gives us his response.
:01:58. > :02:08.think it is excellent news. I just hope we are going to have an
:02:08. > :02:12.
:02:13. > :02:16.investigation into the abuse, and not necessarily the inquiry.
:02:16. > :02:22.One thing this country isn't short of, is people who claim to know.
:02:22. > :02:31.They include cefalogical analysts, who believe the outcome was
:02:31. > :02:40.determined by an event last night. The Carolineer panthers, upended
:02:40. > :02:47.the red kins. You can call an election is whether the red skins
:02:47. > :02:51.win their match. In this case, it is Obama taking a bath. After the
:02:51. > :02:56.opinion poll has forecast the closest outcome in many years.
:02:56. > :03:01.Never before have so many people have to listen to so much tub-
:03:01. > :03:06.thumping or fawning, or have to endure a torrent of half truths,
:03:06. > :03:10.name-calling and bad-mouthing. It would, some calculated, take 345
:03:10. > :03:16.days just to watch the million television ads. Tomorrow is the
:03:16. > :03:20.moment of truth. And Mark Urban is here. Is it really as close as they
:03:20. > :03:25.are saying? It is very close in terms of how many votes each man
:03:25. > :03:29.will get, well within the margin of error of most polls. The American
:03:29. > :03:33.system is not a simple popularity contest, works through this thing
:03:33. > :03:37.called the Electoral College, that picks the President on the basis of
:03:37. > :03:40.delegate sent by the states. If we look at the graphic that sketches
:03:41. > :03:46.out what the two candidates have to do, we will see that President
:03:46. > :03:51.Obama is much closer to that Winning Post, in the middle. The
:03:51. > :03:55.white line, with about 243 delegates pretty much in the bag,
:03:55. > :04:00.from the called blue states, pictured on the left there. Mitt
:04:00. > :04:03.Romney has much further to go, with about 206. Even though he may be
:04:03. > :04:08.gaining ever more popularity in those states, it is not going to
:04:08. > :04:13.help him, unless he can dominate those 89 in the middle, the called
:04:14. > :04:19.battleground state. Even if Romney wins Florida, the one with the most
:04:19. > :04:22.delegates to the Electoral College, 29, that's still not going to do it
:04:22. > :04:26.for him. But if President Obama wins just two, Ohio, where he has
:04:26. > :04:30.been showing very strongly in the polls, and Virginia, where the race
:04:30. > :04:33.is closer, that would be enough to win him the election. That is why
:04:33. > :04:37.most of the pundits in this town think that President Obama is on
:04:37. > :04:40.course for victory. There has been a lot of nattering, indeed we
:04:40. > :04:45.perpetrated some of it ourselves, about the effects of the Hurricane,
:04:45. > :04:49.what are they? There has been some very interesting polling done
:04:49. > :04:51.around this in the last few days. President Obama, who, of course, in
:04:51. > :04:57.an attempt to win those battleground state, has been out
:04:57. > :05:01.there today, he has been in Ohio rocking the vote with Jay-Z, and
:05:01. > :05:05.earlier Bruce Springsteen. He looked very good, very presidential,
:05:05. > :05:09.co-ordinating the whole relief effort to the Hurricane, everybody
:05:09. > :05:12.knows that. Mitt Romney has also been out, trying to get the key
:05:12. > :05:16.votes in the battleground states on his side. He has been down in
:05:16. > :05:21.Florida, where the shots were taken. He had to effectively suspend
:05:21. > :05:25.campaigning for a few days at a critical moment last week. Some of
:05:25. > :05:29.the an all cyst by a respected political blogger here, said that
:05:30. > :05:34.over the past week the chance of an Obama victory has gone up from high
:05:34. > :05:38.70s%, to well over 80%. He as describes a good deal of that to
:05:38. > :05:42.the Hurricane-effect. A lot of people think it has made the
:05:42. > :05:45.difference. We will see tomorrow. As Mark suggests, the biggest swing
:05:45. > :05:49.state of the lot is Florida. Obama took it last time, before that it
:05:49. > :05:57.was the key state in the face-off between George Bush and Dmitri
:05:57. > :06:02.Gorelov. The latest polls -- Al Gore. The latest polls show the two
:06:02. > :06:07.candidates tied. Laura Trevelian is there, who is going to take it, get
:06:07. > :06:11.off the fence? That is the million dollar question, if I was confident
:06:11. > :06:14.enough I would bet my house, I'm not going to. You can feel the
:06:14. > :06:18.tension here tonight. The two campaigns are really wrestling down
:06:18. > :06:21.in the mud for Florida's 29 votes in the Electoral College. I
:06:22. > :06:30.understand the early voting figures are in. The Democrats have a narrow
:06:30. > :06:37.lead, nothing like as big as it was in 2008. Remember all that chaos in
:06:37. > :06:40.2000 hanging chads and all that. Already you have Republicans of
:06:40. > :06:45.accusing dirty tricks and stopping turnout. It is down to the wire. We
:06:45. > :06:55.have been across the state, Tampa to north of Miami, where we caught
:06:55. > :06:57.
:06:57. > :07:01.up with the Obama campaign. Just a few hours left. Nearly 140
:07:01. > :07:05.million Americans can vote. But the result will rest with those who
:07:05. > :07:09.live in the 106 counties which switched from Republican to
:07:09. > :07:14.Democrat last time. No matter whether you are black or white or
:07:14. > :07:19.Hispanic or Asian ornateive American, young, old, rich -- or
:07:19. > :07:21.native American, young, old, rich, poor, you can make it here in
:07:21. > :07:26.America, that is what we are fighting for.
:07:26. > :07:28.The towns and cities that matter most have been inundated with
:07:28. > :07:33.campaigning. It is not about policies or issues,
:07:33. > :07:36.it is about hand-to-hand combat, fighting street-by-street,
:07:36. > :07:44.capturing every single last vote. At the close of this long campaign,
:07:44. > :07:47.it really is a numbers game. The architect of Barack Obama's
:07:47. > :07:51.spectacular rise from local politician to President claims the
:07:51. > :07:55.Democrats will win again. What will it hinge on in the end, who get the
:07:55. > :08:00.most of their coalition out here in Florida? There is no doubt about it.
:08:01. > :08:06.I think there has been this sense that it has been propagaged by the
:08:06. > :08:10.Republicans, that our base will be less motivated, I think they are
:08:10. > :08:14.highly motivated. In Mitt Romney is to win the White House, he must win
:08:14. > :08:21.Florida. They call this stretch of central Florida the highway to
:08:21. > :08:27.political heaven. Who whoever wins the territory either side of the I4,
:08:27. > :08:30.wins state. You have the I4 between Tampa and the Space Ghost. Whoever
:08:30. > :08:36.wins that the I4 quarter wins the state elections and presidential
:08:36. > :08:39.races. Jeb Bush knows a thing or two about
:08:39. > :08:44.winning elections. It is two Presidents in the family, he's
:08:44. > :08:48.tipped one day to run himself. Right now in former Florida
:08:48. > :08:52.governor is stumping for Mitt Romney. Florida has been a
:08:52. > :08:56.battleground state for so long that both sides are really good at it.
:08:56. > :09:00.Our side this year has the intensity on its side. The number
:09:00. > :09:05.of early votes on the Democratic side, relative to four years ago,
:09:05. > :09:09.where they had an incredible army of support, is down 70%. Our
:09:09. > :09:15.numbers are up a bit. So, I'm pretty optimistic that in flour
:09:15. > :09:22.dark at least, Governor Romney will win. In a bakery, just off the
:09:22. > :09:26.interstate, Jeb Bush is trying to make that happen. Crucially the
:09:26. > :09:30.voters are elderly women and white men. Crucially those groups have
:09:30. > :09:37.been shift to go Romney. Take Alex Rosemurgy, who voted for Obama last
:09:37. > :09:39.time of the I tend to identify more with Romney's moderate Republican
:09:39. > :09:45.beliefs than Obama's belief, particularly with regard to the
:09:45. > :09:49.economy. If the Democrats are losing white voters, they must get
:09:49. > :09:52.more his Spanish, female and younger voters on their side. This
:09:52. > :09:59.bakery turns out to be a cross section of the entire race. Who
:09:59. > :10:09.will the staff vote for? Obama. going to vote for Obama, that is
:10:09. > :10:10.
:10:10. > :10:16.who I'm voting for. Welcome to the Caravana, a
:10:16. > :10:23.distinctly Hispanic way to get the vote out. They dance Porto Rican
:10:23. > :10:28.voters to the polls. Even though American is looking for diverse,
:10:28. > :10:34.and Latinos say they will vote Democrat, she's leaving nothing to
:10:34. > :10:38.chance. Ardour on the campaign trail is needed, when it is thought
:10:38. > :10:41.the coalition of minority voters has lost enthusiasm for the
:10:41. > :10:46.President. We understand that minorities in general are those who
:10:47. > :10:50.identify with the Democratic party, we are focusing on African-
:10:50. > :10:54.Americans and Latino. The women's vote will be important for us. In
:10:55. > :11:00.the I4 quarter, which is the battleground of all battlegrounds,
:11:00. > :11:04.we need to get the vote out. Mitt Romney made his final stop in
:11:04. > :11:08.Florida, his plea was simple. have one job left, that is to make
:11:08. > :11:12.sure that on election day we make certain that everybody who is
:11:12. > :11:18.qualified to vote gets out to vote. We need every single vote in
:11:18. > :11:22.Florida. The key word here is "qualified", in the fight to
:11:22. > :11:26.maximise turnout, Republicans are concerned about voter fraud. So
:11:26. > :11:30.watch out for legal challenges and the dreaded recounts if the race is
:11:30. > :11:36.as close as it looks. Floridians have been voting early,
:11:36. > :11:39.queuing round the block. I see lots of young folks, I see lots of
:11:39. > :11:43.ethnic voters. Local Republican randy Johnson watched in a
:11:43. > :11:47.reflective mood. I would have to guess that we are probably not 30%
:11:47. > :11:51.of this line. Does that surprise you, that Democrats still have
:11:51. > :11:58.enthusiasm for Barack Obama? does. It does. I think it probably
:11:58. > :12:03.surprises many people in my party. We don't quite understand it.
:12:03. > :12:07.24 hours to go, does Barack Obama's message of hope still resonate?
:12:07. > :12:10.Despite the economic turmoil and political division? Or will
:12:10. > :12:16.Romney's troops prove the more committed and enthusiastic? Watch
:12:16. > :12:21.this space. The cream of US punditry is here to
:12:21. > :12:23.tell us how the race stands on the last day of full campaigning. We
:12:24. > :12:29.have Tim Carney, from the Washington Examiner, the New York
:12:29. > :12:32.Times economic policy reporter, Annie Lowrey, and Time Magazine's
:12:32. > :12:38.deputy Washington bureau chief, Michael Crowley. The big mystery
:12:38. > :12:43.for a lot of visitors here, is how Obama, who swept in so triumphantly
:12:43. > :12:48.last time round, could, apparently, be at risk of losing the presidency.
:12:48. > :12:52.Just what happened? He inherited a poisoned chalice. Sometimes I
:12:52. > :12:56.wonder had he known about the economic catastrophe coming, would
:12:56. > :12:59.have wanted to run for President at all. It was a really hard time to
:12:59. > :13:03.take over. Republicans will say, he's had plenty of time to try to
:13:03. > :13:07.repair the economy, it has been four years, you can't blame George
:13:07. > :13:12.Bush any more. I think fundamentally this was a man who
:13:12. > :13:15.was curse today begin with, and still face as very high
:13:15. > :13:20.unemployment rate. He really will be fortunate to be re-elected with
:13:20. > :13:24.the rate as high as it is. What went wrong? Simply, the recession
:13:25. > :13:27.was much worse than people expect, and the economy is in a terrible
:13:27. > :13:35.state right now. There is some evidence it is improving. It is
:13:35. > :13:39.getting better. People are disappointed with the economy and
:13:39. > :13:44.it has tremendous reprecussions in this case. Is begs the question is
:13:44. > :13:49.this a presidency worth winning right now? A lot of people expect
:13:49. > :13:56.the economy to recover, that is why Obama would be upset if he lost. I
:13:56. > :14:00.disagree it was a mess he inherited. I have been focus on the suburban
:14:00. > :14:02.vote in Ohio and Virginia, a lot of people thought Obamacare turned
:14:02. > :14:06.them off, most people don't understand the content, but the way
:14:06. > :14:11.he pushed it through. It was a little heavy-handed, that turned
:14:11. > :14:14.off a lot of voters. Obamacare is something vaguely like the National
:14:14. > :14:18.Health Service in Britain isn't it, just for the benefit of anyone
:14:18. > :14:22.watching? It is one step in that direction. Can I just add. More
:14:22. > :14:28.people have axe sets to free healthcare, that is the basic --
:14:28. > :14:34.access to the free healthcare? Incidentally I think he's a victim
:14:34. > :14:40.of his own high expectation. He set himself up to fail for making such
:14:40. > :14:44.huge promises. It is a her receipt kal belief for some out here. --
:14:44. > :14:47.heretical belief for some out here. Let's talk about the campaign, it
:14:47. > :14:53.seemed ugly and devisive and fractious and bitter and bad
:14:53. > :14:59.tempered, what did you think? think the campaigns tend to be some
:14:59. > :15:04.what contentious in this country. Just bad-tempered. Times are very
:15:04. > :15:09.tough in the United States. This was a campaign unusually focused on
:15:09. > :15:12.policy issues, about the saving of the American middle-class and
:15:12. > :15:18.creating jobs. These were two men almost at odds on how to do that.
:15:18. > :15:21.And were making impassioned cases about it. Each was classically
:15:21. > :15:25.redefining what the middle-class was. They seemed to talk about
:15:25. > :15:29.different groups of people when they talked about "the middle-
:15:29. > :15:33.class", the fabled middle-class? American politics the middle-class
:15:33. > :15:36.is almost everyone. Its different groups of people or one immpossibly
:15:36. > :15:38.large group of people. It is supposed to resonate with everyone.
:15:38. > :15:43.The nastiness comes from the President, he bears a lot of the
:15:43. > :15:47.blame. He didn't have much of a record to run on for a lot of
:15:47. > :15:52.reasons, some which were his fault and some not. Right out of the gate
:15:52. > :15:56.he set out to define Mitt Romney as an unacceptable alternative.
:15:56. > :16:01.Knowing he was not likely to be re- elected on his own basis, and make
:16:01. > :16:08.Mitt Romney unacceptable. People say the referendum is on the
:16:08. > :16:12.incumbent, Barack Obama was about making it on the challenger, Romney.
:16:12. > :16:16.What would a Mitt Romney President be like for the rest of the world?
:16:16. > :16:21.Romney doesn't have a core set of beliefs, he has an approach to
:16:21. > :16:26.topic. He goes ahead and tries to be systematic, he's a moderate at
:16:26. > :16:31.heart. What he wants to do is not laid out by any ideology, in the
:16:31. > :16:36.way that gub was, or to some extent, Obama is. On foreign policy s the
:16:36. > :16:41.third debate made a lot of people less worried about him, people were
:16:41. > :16:47.afraid he would be too hawk irk, he seemed very measured in that --
:16:47. > :16:50.hawkish in that way, he seemed measured. What do you think?
:16:50. > :16:57.times Romney's rhetoric was very tough. Some of his senior advisers
:16:57. > :17:01.were throwbacks to the Bush years, when there was an interventionist,
:17:01. > :17:05.pro-democracy American foreign policy. In the debate he tempered
:17:05. > :17:10.it. You were more likely to see American support for an Israeli
:17:11. > :17:16.strike on Iran or American strike on Iran, if Romney is President.
:17:16. > :17:20.You would see a Democratic push in the Middle East for Romney. More
:17:20. > :17:25.aggressive I would say. Will an Obama second term be different to
:17:25. > :17:28.the first term? He will face the huge fiscal challenge the United
:17:28. > :17:31.States will have. He will have to work with Congress that will be
:17:31. > :17:38.divided, to solve that problem. After that, Congress has not
:17:38. > :17:42.changed in the last four years, it remains absolutely at loggers, it
:17:42. > :17:45.is not clear he will get nearly as ambitious legislation through as in
:17:45. > :17:49.the first. Tackling issues like immigration, but really it will be
:17:49. > :17:53.about taxes, and about spending cuts, and either President Romney
:17:53. > :17:58.or President Obama, that will be the first and major thing. At least
:17:58. > :18:01.in the early terms of either's term. I was hoping we could avoid talking
:18:01. > :18:06.about the fiscal cliff that people are talking about here. This is a
:18:06. > :18:09.real serious crisis in the public finances, due to hit January 1st,
:18:09. > :18:14.which means big tax hikes or spending cuts. Either of them will
:18:14. > :18:17.have to deal with it? In the most recent crises like this, the
:18:17. > :18:21.Government shut down debate followed by a death-sealing debate
:18:21. > :18:26.like we have had in the last four years. It looks like no solution,
:18:27. > :18:31.then they kick the can down the road, putting it on to a later date.
:18:31. > :18:34.Nobody wants to go over the cliff or come up with a solution, I'm
:18:34. > :18:37.confident they will do that again. It won't be a crisis? It would be
:18:37. > :18:40.if they dug in their heels and stopped anything from going through.
:18:40. > :18:44.It becomes a crisis, it seems to me, when the global financial markets
:18:44. > :18:48.start to lose faith in the United States. That is really the deadline.
:18:48. > :18:51.I think it is possible we will punt and punt and punt. There is not, it
:18:51. > :18:55.is puntable, for a while longer. The question is s and people
:18:55. > :19:01.disagree about this. It is "puntable" for a while, that is a
:19:01. > :19:04.kicking term, isn't it? It may be, we the blames differently here. I
:19:04. > :19:11.don't know how it will be interpreted. It means you can delay,
:19:11. > :19:14.fundamentally, to make it clear, my sense is we could delay for a while
:19:14. > :19:23.longer. Let's hear from someone who knows?
:19:23. > :19:27.There is this deadline on January 1st, where spending cuts come in
:19:27. > :19:31.and tax rises. The economy remains very weak. The question is, it
:19:31. > :19:34.looks like there will be a second trigger, some kind of tax reform,
:19:34. > :19:37.but when will they create that deadline for themselves. How much
:19:37. > :19:43.will they spook financial markets before them then. You have seen
:19:43. > :19:49.foreign Governments, the IMF, the OECD say please don't crater your
:19:49. > :19:53.recovery, because it matters for us too. Crater your recovery, we will,
:19:53. > :19:56.right, let's get off the fence on this question of whether they are
:19:56. > :19:59.all really here under false pretence. Is it as close as people
:19:59. > :20:03.are trying to suggest. Or is it just that people like you and
:20:03. > :20:06.pollsters and everybody else has to justify their existence? No race is
:20:06. > :20:12.ever over. We say, in American football we have a saying, that's
:20:12. > :20:18.why they play the game, on Any Given Sunday someone can win.
:20:19. > :20:22.will win? I would give Obama something like 4-1 odds to win.
:20:22. > :20:27.Romney could win, but it would be shocking. It is coming down to
:20:27. > :20:33.confidence in polling in states like Ohio and Virginia that remain
:20:33. > :20:36.very close. Gut instincts? It looks like now it would be harder for us
:20:36. > :20:42.to have a President Romney or President Obama. This is above my
:20:42. > :20:50.pay grade. I don't know how valuable the gut instinct is, the
:20:50. > :20:55.polling shows a clear picture, it is more a epistobale, very fancy
:20:55. > :20:59.word, puntable, I spoke to some Republicans who sound awe
:20:59. > :21:06.thefrpbtic, and spinning and sounding in good cheer, they are
:21:07. > :21:09.sounding effective. The polls did worse in 2008 and
:21:09. > :21:13.2004. Even the geekiest of the election
:21:13. > :21:16.geeks won't attempt to claim that this election is up there with what
:21:16. > :21:20.happened four years ago, when Obama won the presidency. That was seen
:21:20. > :21:25.as a transforming event. Not just because it took a black man to the
:21:25. > :21:34.White House, but because of what he himself promised. What happened? We
:21:34. > :21:40.have taken the measure of his time in office. Hello Chicago, tonight,
:21:40. > :21:50.because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining
:21:50. > :21:54.moment, change has come to America. Change, so many candidates for the
:21:54. > :21:58.White House have promised it. amazing many American voters still
:21:58. > :22:02.believe them. Perhaps they yes or no for somebody who can transcend
:22:02. > :22:06.the grid lock and systemic deadlock of Washington politics, in order to
:22:06. > :22:14.bring about something really meaningful. How has President Obama
:22:14. > :22:17.done? Few politicians would have relished taking the helm, in the
:22:17. > :22:21.midst of global economic crisis. From the outset, Barack Obama knew
:22:21. > :22:27.that he would be judged primarily which what he could do to breathe
:22:27. > :22:32.life back into the US economy. We know the challenges that
:22:32. > :22:40.tomorrow will bring, are the greatest of our lifetime. Two war,
:22:40. > :22:45.a planet in peril. The worst financial crisis in a century.
:22:45. > :22:51.answer came in an $800 billion stimulus package. It was old
:22:51. > :22:57.fashioned job preservation, with some new policy twists. Among the
:22:57. > :23:02.economists advising the new White House team was jar rad Bernstein.
:23:02. > :23:10.The first time the economic team got together was mid-December 2008,
:23:10. > :23:14.it was snowy and dark in Chicago, and dreary, the discussion was
:23:14. > :23:18.really about just how deep the economic recession of. At the time
:23:18. > :23:26.we didn't have the data to know how very deep it was. Our sense was
:23:26. > :23:31.this was a serious downturn. Could it deliver meaningful change fast
:23:31. > :23:35.enough? If he don't have it done in three years, it will be a one-term
:23:35. > :23:39.proposition. The effects of bailing out the economy, unemployment may
:23:39. > :23:43.not have got dramatically worse, but it hasn't got much better
:23:44. > :23:49.either. Still hovering around 8%. The President said himself, and I
:23:49. > :23:57.will quote him, "I gestion there weren't enough shovel-ready jobs".
:23:57. > :24:03.What it did, a lot of the money, the $800 billion, was money for
:24:03. > :24:06.union work. A lot of the union work was not work ready to be done.
:24:06. > :24:10.was reform of the healthcare system that offered the President his best
:24:10. > :24:16.chance of changing the lives of most Americans, and breaking
:24:16. > :24:19.Washington DC's gridlock. It will make coverage affordable
:24:19. > :24:26.for over 30 million Americans who do not have it. 30 million
:24:26. > :24:30.Americans. Healthcare countdown, and Democrats tell us they are
:24:30. > :24:33.making changes to the bill. package they called Obamacare,
:24:33. > :24:38.combines patient, employer and Government funding, to extend
:24:38. > :24:48.healthcare to tens of millions. But it also triggered a bitter battle
:24:48. > :24:53.
:24:53. > :24:58.But they didn't stop the President, even if the full plan requires Mr
:24:58. > :25:03.Obama to win re-election. Victory really looms quite large, relative
:25:03. > :25:07.to some of the details that got hammered out in negotiations with
:25:07. > :25:11.opponents, you have to understand that in American politics reforming
:25:11. > :25:15.the way we provide and deliver healthcare has been a goal of
:25:15. > :25:18.Presidents for decades, literally decades. The fact that the
:25:18. > :25:23.President was able to get that over the legislative goal line will
:25:23. > :25:30.almost certainly be an important part of his legacy. Let's resist
:25:30. > :25:34.the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettyness,
:25:34. > :25:39.and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. President
:25:39. > :25:42.Obama, can you hear America now. Once the Republicans regained
:25:42. > :25:45.control of the house of representatives in 2010, funding
:25:45. > :25:49.the Government theself became increasingly fraught. Leaving
:25:49. > :25:55.unanswered basic questions about spending and taxation.
:25:55. > :26:05.If the President were to be re- elected, we have crisis right on
:26:05. > :26:06.
:26:06. > :26:09.the horizon in January, be it on tax, he is questation, dramatic
:26:09. > :26:14.dsequestation, and drat dramatic tax cuts signed into law. His feet
:26:14. > :26:19.will be in the fire. The President himself seems to recognise his
:26:19. > :26:23.failure to foster a less adversarial relationship with
:26:23. > :26:28.Congress. If you ask me what is my biggest disappointment, is we
:26:28. > :26:31.haven't changed the tone in Washington as much as we would like.
:26:31. > :26:35.You don't bear responsibility for that? As President I bear
:26:35. > :26:41.responsibility for everything, to some degree. To those who would
:26:41. > :26:45.tear the world down, we will defeat you. President Obama wound down one
:26:45. > :26:51.foreign war, Iraq, and gained public approval for it. But he
:26:51. > :26:55.ramped up another, Afghanistan. He considered it the "good" war, but
:26:55. > :26:58.he increased involvement there at huge cost, and for quite
:26:58. > :27:02.questionable benefits. Indeed Afghanistan might have been much
:27:02. > :27:07.more of an issue in this election, but for a particularly successful
:27:07. > :27:11.raid into Pakistan. Good evening, tonight I can report to the
:27:11. > :27:16.American people and to the world, that the United States has
:27:16. > :27:21.conducted an operation that killed Osama Bin Laden, the leader of Al-
:27:21. > :27:24.Qaeda. But what of foreign policy in its less violent forms? The
:27:24. > :27:31.administration tried to reset relations with Russia, Iran, and
:27:31. > :27:38.the Muslim world, more generally. It stood clear of Syria, and
:27:38. > :27:42.attracted Republican criticism for abrogating leadership. Part of the
:27:42. > :27:46.Obama administration is tackling issues that are profound, even
:27:46. > :27:52.historic, and having an expectation that they could be addressed and
:27:52. > :28:00.resolved, in four years. Few of the issues that Obama has confronted
:28:00. > :28:04.realistically, could have been resolved in one-term. The President
:28:04. > :28:09.and his supporters have adapted their narrative. Re-election, they
:28:09. > :28:14.say, is necessary to consolidate the gains of the first term. Be
:28:14. > :28:18.that in healthcare or overseas. It's not a bad argument, but it
:28:18. > :28:28.does suggest that the President's first term has hardly transformed
:28:28. > :28:30.
:28:31. > :28:34.politics in the way many hoped it would.
:28:34. > :28:40.My guest was in the room when many of the key decisions of President
:28:40. > :28:46.Obama's first term were made, in his role of chairman of the Council
:28:46. > :28:52.of Economic advisers. Voted funnyiest celebrity in 1979, he's
:28:52. > :28:55.Professor of Economics in the Booth School of Business, he joins me
:28:55. > :29:01.from there. Do you think we expected too much from President
:29:01. > :29:05.Obama? Probably a little bit. You know, he did accomplish a great
:29:05. > :29:09.deal. But there was certainly an air of hope that he would
:29:09. > :29:15.accomplish even more, I think. I think the grim realities of getting
:29:15. > :29:20.out of a financial bubble, driven - - financial bubble-driven recession,
:29:20. > :29:25.have been harder than anyone thought. And I think the opposition
:29:25. > :29:29.of the Republican Party to what the President was doing, which started
:29:29. > :29:35.really before he even took office, you know, the very day the
:29:35. > :29:40.President took office, he tried to get a whole lot of his nominees for
:29:40. > :29:44.the top jobs confirmed, and they were already getting held up by
:29:44. > :29:49.Republicans in the Senate, before he was even in office. So I think
:29:49. > :29:54.that those two things, combined, have made for, you know, what's
:29:54. > :29:59.clearly been a tough slog getting out of this.
:29:59. > :30:07.He said after the last election, he said, change has come to America,
:30:07. > :30:12.he couldn't change Washington though? Well, you know, it deends
:30:12. > :30:14.how you look at it. He -- it depends on how you look at it. He
:30:14. > :30:20.certainly hasn't changed that there is a group of people who oppose
:30:20. > :30:22.anything he does. If he suggests policies that are historically
:30:22. > :30:27.Republican ideas, they oppose them, just because he proposed them of
:30:27. > :30:32.the I joke that it felt like we're back in the old east German judge
:30:32. > :30:36.at the Olympic, they have the card filled out before he's even done
:30:36. > :30:40.anything. He could hit a triple flip, they are still giving him a 2.
:30:40. > :30:44.He hasn't able to change that. On the other hand, if you look at what
:30:44. > :30:49.did he accomplish, he was able to change some pretty significant
:30:49. > :30:54.things. They still remain controversial, but to finally get
:30:54. > :30:58.universal healthcare in the country, to finally regulate the financial
:30:58. > :31:06.sector in a way that the deregulation of that sector really
:31:06. > :31:09.caused a lot of the crisis. To end the war in Iraq, to kill Osama Bin
:31:09. > :31:14.Laden, all those seem pretty significant changes, things he
:31:14. > :31:17.promised he was going to do. But, it's hard to change that partisan
:31:17. > :31:22.tone, that is definitely proved true.
:31:22. > :31:28.You have been privvy to some of the discussions and decisions, on one
:31:28. > :31:33.of his own benchmark, which was the promise to reduce the level of
:31:33. > :31:37.unemployment, he didn't meet his own self-imposed target. Does he
:31:38. > :31:43.personally feel a sense of failure there, do you think? Well, I would
:31:43. > :31:47.be a little careful with that. The number that gets quoted by his
:31:47. > :31:52.opponent governor Romney was a forecast that was made before there
:31:52. > :31:57.was an Obama administration, it was made in the transition, in the fall
:31:57. > :32:02.of 2008. And it said that if you pass a stimulus, the unemployment
:32:02. > :32:08.rate would not go above 8%, it said if you did not pass the stimulus,
:32:08. > :32:12.the unemployment rate would go all the way to 8.9%. Of course it was
:32:12. > :32:16.well above even 8.9% before the first dollar of the recovery money
:32:16. > :32:19.went out the door. I think it wasn't just the in coming
:32:19. > :32:26.Government that made the mistake on the forecast, it was the entire
:32:26. > :32:29.private sector forecasting industry that made that mistake. By six to
:32:29. > :32:32.eight months into the administration, the official
:32:32. > :32:38.forecast, put out by the Government, that you can look up in the budget,
:32:38. > :32:42.was that by the Fall of 2012, the unemployment rate would be 8.2%.
:32:42. > :32:45.Which is even a little above where it is now. Quite early on, I think
:32:45. > :32:48.the President and the administration understood what the
:32:48. > :32:53.circumstances were going to be. I think he definitely want the
:32:53. > :33:00.unemployment rate to come down. He says every time the jobs numbers
:33:00. > :33:03.come out even if they improve a lot or little or stay stagnant, he says
:33:03. > :33:07.it is a long waying to. It is a persistently high unemployment rate
:33:07. > :33:11.in the US, even though it has improved a lot.
:33:12. > :33:16.Of course he wants it to come down. Let me ask a simple question, to
:33:16. > :33:20.which you can give a pithy answer or not, many of us outside politics
:33:20. > :33:30.are baffled by why people want high office. Do you think he has
:33:30. > :33:36.actually enjoyed being President? Some days, some days not. He
:33:36. > :33:43.certainly looks, his hair is a lot greyier. I used today say, I had a
:33:43. > :33:46.-- greyer, I used to say I had a full head of hair before I got to
:33:46. > :33:50.Washington, I don't know what happened. I'm sure there are days
:33:50. > :33:56.he would prefer to be back out here in Chicago. But, you know, he
:33:56. > :33:58.probably didn't go there for the fun, and he hasn't been
:33:58. > :34:01.disappointed. Thank you very much for joining us.
:34:02. > :34:05.That's it for now. If things go to plan, which is always a pretty
:34:05. > :34:09.foolish assumption, we will be devote all tomorrow's Newsnight to
:34:09. > :34:13.the election, and who America thinks is best capable of fixing
:34:13. > :34:17.things here. For now I leave you to Paul Mason.
:34:17. > :34:21.Thank you. The Prime Minister today ordered an urgent inquiry into the
:34:21. > :34:26.handling of child abuse allegations at North Wales children's homes in
:34:26. > :34:30.the 1970 and 1980. The move came after reporter, Angus Stickler,
:34:30. > :34:35.revealed on Newsnight, on Friday, allegation of a cover-up, during a
:34:35. > :34:40.judicial inquiry, led by the High Court judge Sir Ronald Waterhouse
:34:40. > :34:42.in the late 1990s. One of those abused claimed a former senior
:34:42. > :34:49.Conservative politician had been involved in the abuse. He's now to
:34:49. > :34:55.put the allegations direct to the Welsh Secretary, David Jones, in a
:34:55. > :35:00.face-to-face meeting tomorrow. Decades ago, children living in
:35:00. > :35:06.North Wales care homes were raped and abused, it has been alleged
:35:06. > :35:11.they were used by a paedophile-ring. One particular night that I always
:35:11. > :35:16.recall, is where I was basically raped, tied down, and abused by
:35:16. > :35:20.nine different men, sexually. and another former resident told us
:35:20. > :35:26.one of the abusers then was a senior Conservative figure. That
:35:26. > :35:30.claim prompted the Prime Minister today. Child abuse is an absolutely
:35:30. > :35:35.hateful and abhorrent crime, these allegations are truly dreadful, and
:35:35. > :35:40.they mustn't be left hanging in the air. Police investigated some abuse
:35:40. > :35:43.claims, then there was a lengthy inquiry, chaired by Sir Ronald
:35:43. > :35:49.Waterhouse, a former High Court judge. He heard from 650 former
:35:49. > :35:51.residents of children's homes. But Steve Meesham told Angus Stickler
:35:51. > :35:56.of the Bureau of Investigative Journalism on Newsnight, it didn't
:35:56. > :36:00.get to the truth. Why on earth we had had an inquiry, if we had to
:36:00. > :36:04.leave out 30% of the abusers, and basically, I was told to do that. I
:36:04. > :36:08.was told I couldn't go into detail about these people. I couldn't name
:36:08. > :36:12.them and they wouldn't question me on them. The terms of the inquiry
:36:12. > :36:17.were drawn up by the then Secretary of State for Wales, William Hague.
:36:17. > :36:23.It was to inquiry into the abuse of children in care in the former
:36:23. > :36:27.County Council areas of Gwnyeth and clud, since 1974, to examine
:36:27. > :36:31.whether the authorities responsible could have preent vented the abuse,
:36:31. > :36:35.or detected -- prevented the abuse or detected it earlier, to look at
:36:35. > :36:38.how they respond to allegations of abuse, and crucially, excluding
:36:38. > :36:41.decisions to prosecute names individuals. Those terms of
:36:41. > :36:45.reference are coming under close scrutiny. I will be asking a sen
:36:45. > :36:48.York independent figure, to lead an you are -- senior, independent
:36:48. > :36:52.figure, to lead an urgent investigation into whether the
:36:52. > :36:57.original inquiry was properly constitutes and did its job and to
:36:57. > :37:01.report urgently to the Government. Today we went back to Steve Meesham,
:37:01. > :37:03.he welcomed the Prime Minister's intervention, but. We also need an
:37:03. > :37:07.investigation into how the police dealt with this and handled it,
:37:07. > :37:11.that is very important. We need that done by an outside police
:37:11. > :37:15.force, maybe the Met, they could come in and look at that. I also
:37:15. > :37:23.think to have an inquiry, I hope he does not appoint a judge.
:37:23. > :37:29.He would prefer an expert, for this programme, we understand it will
:37:29. > :37:32.most likely be a judge that is picked. Others doubt how helpful
:37:32. > :37:36.the inquiry will be. I don't think a focus on the constitution of the
:37:36. > :37:40.inquire helps a great deal. I remember reading through the
:37:40. > :37:46.inquiry when it reported, and felt at the time, that it did the best
:37:46. > :37:51.that it could, with the evidence that had been gathered. I think it
:37:51. > :38:01.was limited. That was a problem. A number of complainants were unhappy
:38:01. > :38:01.
:38:01. > :38:07.with the fact that some of their allegations were not pursued.
:38:07. > :38:14.cabinet secretary is asking people to go through archives to see if
:38:14. > :38:17.there are any relevant documents. Many have a critic has written to
:38:17. > :38:21.the Prime Minister and said this won't work, and the police have to
:38:21. > :38:25.go through their archives too and the Intelligence Services. Will it
:38:25. > :38:28.lead to prosecutions, Steve Meesham has his doubts? I think we will get
:38:28. > :38:32.an investigation, I think they will say this and that should have been
:38:32. > :38:37.done. There is numerous reasons we won't get any trials or court cases.
:38:37. > :38:41.Who will attend them? A lot of the people that named certain people
:38:41. > :38:48.have committed suicide, or they are deceased now. It is such a shame.
:38:48. > :38:53.How many of them? I'm ware of 13 people that have committed suicide
:38:53. > :39:00.before and during the Waterhouse inquiry. There has been more sense.
:39:00. > :39:03.It is very sad. Joining me is Tim Loughton, until September the
:39:03. > :39:08.Children's Minister, and Owen Smith, the shadow Secretary of State for
:39:08. > :39:11.Wales. Gent, is this enough, Cameron has acted quite quickly
:39:11. > :39:14.following the propbl on Friday, is it enough? -- programme on Friday,
:39:14. > :39:18.is it enough? I think the Prime Minister has done the right thing
:39:18. > :39:23.today. It is absolutely right he treats this with great urgency, he
:39:23. > :39:28.feels very strongly about what is going on. We need to get to the
:39:28. > :39:31.bottom of has gone on. We have over five inquiries going on, the BBC,
:39:31. > :39:36.the health service, Jimmy Savile, whether the previous inquiry came
:39:36. > :39:40.up with the right results and was thorough enough. The public is
:39:40. > :39:45.getting concerned, how much longer is this going on for, how many
:39:45. > :39:49.different institutions and establishments will be dragged into
:39:49. > :39:56.soerm institutional child abuse. Can we absolutely be sure this
:39:56. > :39:59.isn't being repeated somewhere in the country now? I -- I agree, the
:39:59. > :40:03.Prime Minister has done the right thing today. It was the only thing
:40:03. > :40:06.he could have done, given the volume of concern and the new
:40:06. > :40:09.allegations made. The first and most important thing that needs to
:40:09. > :40:13.happen is, if there are fresh allegations being made, those need
:40:13. > :40:19.to be investigated, firstly, by the police, and pursued to their
:40:19. > :40:23.fullest extent. If there are substantiated claims, then clearly
:40:23. > :40:26.they need to be prosecutions. Beyond that, I think the Prime
:40:27. > :40:30.Minister is right to suggest this evening, that perhaps, a more
:40:30. > :40:33.holistic and wide-ranging review. We have already suggested that
:40:33. > :40:37.perhaps a broader public inquiry might be required to get to the
:40:37. > :40:40.bottom of this. We are hearing signals out of Number Ten, that it
:40:40. > :40:44.may be that something bigger is needed. Is that the way it is going.
:40:44. > :40:48.Do you think we will end up with a big judge-led public inquiry?
:40:48. > :40:51.think it has to be. It is another day, another aspect, another
:40:51. > :40:56.inquiry. The time has now come, and it is not just the Savile business,
:40:56. > :41:00.it is not just what happened in Wales. It is also the child sexual
:41:00. > :41:05.abuse that we have been having with gangs of Pakistani-British men in
:41:05. > :41:08.the north of England, more arrests this weekend over in led. It is a
:41:08. > :41:13.different form of what was happening perhaps in Wales back in
:41:13. > :41:18.the 1970s and 1980s. I think we need to have a really punchy, high-
:41:18. > :41:22.level, serious, intensive look, at the history of child protection
:41:22. > :41:27.over the last ten years, and make sure every institution has a really
:41:27. > :41:30.robust child protection policy. And those people who weren't brought to
:41:30. > :41:35.look before are brought to look -- brought to book before are brought
:41:35. > :41:42.to book now. Those who remembered it and covered it were supposed to
:41:42. > :41:47.be the cat that particular moment, it was -- cathartic moment? Some of
:41:47. > :41:51.the Vic ims felt it was the case and Waterhouse had dealt with it.
:41:51. > :41:54.There were three previous sets of investigations, a number of people
:41:54. > :41:58.had been convicted. The key thing is if Waterhouse and the North
:41:58. > :42:05.Wales abuse allegations are to be the centre of this, then the role
:42:05. > :42:11.of the victims, and the views of the victims, must be considered. It
:42:11. > :42:16.is not right that all of the victims will welcome a fresh public
:42:16. > :42:20.inquiry. We have the Children's Commissioners nowadays, and the
:42:20. > :42:24.bodies that decide what they want out of this. Their views have to be
:42:25. > :42:28.central. The whole thing centres on an allegation of an unnamed senior
:42:28. > :42:32.Conservative politician from the past. There will be people in your
:42:32. > :42:35.party thinking, is our institution now going to have the same soul-
:42:35. > :42:38.searching process that the BBC, the National Health Service, Broadmoor,
:42:38. > :42:46.have been through in the past four weeks. Do you think that is where
:42:46. > :42:49.it might go? I said on your programme, some week ago, and I
:42:49. > :42:53.said on a separate radio interview, when a political connection came up.
:42:53. > :42:57.Why should we be surprised, we have had the BBC and the church, and all
:42:57. > :43:01.sorts of institution, who are no some way connected with child abuse,
:43:01. > :43:04.going over many decade, in a institutionalised way. We shouldn't
:43:04. > :43:07.be surprised at the political connection as well. What I want to
:43:07. > :43:12.see, and we have four Children's Commissioner, one of the things
:43:12. > :43:15.that came out of the Waterhouse Report, of the creation of the
:43:15. > :43:22.Welsh Children's Commissioner, they should be coming together, I want
:43:22. > :43:26.to speak to the Children's Commissioner for England, to meet
:43:27. > :43:33.up, this has tentacles across the UK. Every institution needs to look
:43:33. > :43:37.in on itself to see if they have now robust policies to avoid any
:43:37. > :43:41.reoccurrance of this happening now, and if there are guilty parties
:43:41. > :43:44.there now, they should go rooted out. Do you not see this as a
:43:44. > :43:48.moment where the whole of British institutions have to look at their
:43:48. > :43:52.past, and come clean about the way in which they have dealt with this,
:43:52. > :43:57.and its extent it? Not to be defensive. Listen to the victim,
:43:57. > :44:00.there is one thing that bind together the Savile and this, the
:44:00. > :44:05.victims haven't been listened to and believed. They need to be
:44:05. > :44:10.believed. The resores we are devote to go it, are not devoted to
:44:10. > :44:17.chasing down child abusers today? They are, we have brought things
:44:18. > :44:22.like PCO 0, and SION, things have radically changesed and we need to
:44:22. > :44:25.do more. People are coming forward, because they have more confidence
:44:25. > :44:28.of being heard. Steve Meesham said the police wouldn't believe them
:44:28. > :44:32.and roughed them up because they didn't believe them, so they didn't
:44:32. > :44:42.come forward, they weren't taking seriously, that has to change.
:44:42. > :44:51.
:44:51. > :45:01.Gentlemen thank you very much. It's A lot of the papers are buying the
:45:01. > :45:03.
:45:03. > :45:09.idea it is a cliff-hanker. The Financial Times finds a
:45:09. > :45:16.financial angle, the investment funds in gridlock. The fiscal cliff
:45:16. > :45:26.we were talking about earlier. The Telegraph runs with the abuse claim
:45:26. > :45:27.
:45:27. > :45:32.against top Tory, "trawl dreadful" quote -- "truly dreadful". The �624
:45:32. > :45:42.insult to a rape victim there. That's all for tonight, Jeremy is
:45:42. > :46:08.
:46:08. > :46:13.back tomorrow night for election A widespread frost, in England the
:46:13. > :46:16.frost would have lifted. The odd icey patch too. Sunny spells across
:46:16. > :46:22.the south. Some brightness along the south coast. The cloud will
:46:22. > :46:26.increase, a day, certainly northern England, of occasional rain and
:46:26. > :46:30.strengthening breeze. For some it may stay largely dry. Parts of the
:46:30. > :46:34.south-east staying largely dry, a few spots of rain possible. Mainly
:46:34. > :46:38.dry towards the south west. The afternoon a good deal cloudier than
:46:38. > :46:43.the morning, occasional bright spells possible. Eastern areas of
:46:43. > :46:48.the country, 7-8 degrees. Some parts of south-west Wales stay dry
:46:48. > :46:51.and fairly bright. To the north occasional rain throughout. Rain in
:46:51. > :46:55.Northern Ireland it should thin out. To the east brightness. Again
:46:55. > :46:58.fairly breezy, as is the case in Scotland. Further rain at times in
:46:58. > :47:02.western areas. To the east the high ground, we will see some cloud
:47:02. > :47:12.breaks possible later in the day. The difference between Tuesday and
:47:12. > :47:17.