:00:13. > :00:16.It's not what you would call a ringing endorsement, but Barack
:00:16. > :00:21.Obama's election machine delivered the required results, so he stays
:00:21. > :00:25.in the White House, and so gets to face this country's awful economic
:00:25. > :00:33.crisis, while Mitt Romney gets to spend more time with his money, and
:00:33. > :00:38.his magic underpants. It may look like more of the same.
:00:38. > :00:44.And tonight, despite all the hardship we have been through,
:00:45. > :00:49.despite all the frustrations of Washington, I have never been more
:00:49. > :00:54.hopeful about our stpurture. There is -- Future. There is hard
:00:54. > :00:59.business to attend to and urgently. Mitt Romney was gracious in defeat.
:00:59. > :01:03.At a time like this we can't risk partisan bickering and political
:01:03. > :01:10.posturing, our leaders have to reach across the ail to do the
:01:10. > :01:16.people's work. But his failure -- Aisle to do the people's work.
:01:16. > :01:22.his defeat leaves the right wondering what can they get people
:01:22. > :01:27.to buy into. They have to empower people. They have to find a way to
:01:27. > :01:31.make conservative principles more attractive to that demographic.
:01:31. > :01:35.Among our guest, Clark Judge, speechwriter for Republican
:01:35. > :01:44.Presidents in the past. And a Dean, who once thought he was the best
:01:44. > :01:49.Democratic hope for the White House at one time.
:01:49. > :01:54.At first glance, a visitor from outer space might wonder what all
:01:54. > :01:58.the fuss is about, $6 billion spent, and same bloke is in the White
:01:58. > :02:01.House and the country is still $16 trillion in debt. The Republican
:02:01. > :02:05.challenge for the presidency failed and while a couple of men with
:02:05. > :02:09.crackpot views on rape also failed to get elected today Congress, the
:02:09. > :02:16.political complex of the legislature has hardly change --
:02:16. > :02:21.complexion, of the legislature has hardly changed. We have a sumry
:02:21. > :02:24.first up, a pretty well-managed campaign by Obama, it delivered?
:02:24. > :02:27.Very well managed, strategyy targeted and often quite negative
:02:27. > :02:32.in the stone. The difference between the popular vote between
:02:32. > :02:38.the two men, around about 1%. The difference in the Electoral College,
:02:38. > :02:42.more like 33%, 34%. They went to the battleground states, they
:02:42. > :02:47.blitzed the ad, two or three-times as many as Mitt Romney's people.
:02:47. > :02:52.They fought the perception that on the economy was weak, instead
:02:52. > :02:57.turning it negative, running ads about Mitt Romney firing people
:02:57. > :03:03.when he was running Bain Capital, to the point where one comedian
:03:03. > :03:06.said, he looks like the guy who fired your dad. What do we make of
:03:07. > :03:12.America from this election? A great deal about division, polarisation,
:03:12. > :03:18.the way the electorate divides into different cohorts. You mentioned
:03:18. > :03:21.the Senate race, the issue of rape cost those two Senors their jobs.
:03:21. > :03:27.And derailed Republican' tempts to take control of the Senate. The
:03:27. > :03:30.house of rep -- attempts to take control of the Senate. The house of
:03:30. > :03:34.representatives still showing the views that proved so threaten to go
:03:34. > :03:40.President Obama, and trouble ahead. For the moment people are still
:03:40. > :03:44.focusing on the momentous events of last night.
:03:44. > :03:49.Barack Obama's first term may have disappointed many Americans. But
:03:49. > :03:54.you would hardly have known it. His campaign workers in Chicago, had
:03:55. > :03:59.laid on a particularer tape welcome for a moment of crowning triumph.
:03:59. > :04:04.Re-election, vindication, and a powerful lesson in America's new
:04:04. > :04:07.electoral politics. We are not as divided as our
:04:08. > :04:13.politics suggests. We're not as cynical as the pundits believe. We
:04:13. > :04:19.are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain
:04:19. > :04:23.more than a collection of red states and blue state, we are and
:04:23. > :04:26.forever will be the United States of America.
:04:26. > :04:31.Battleground states proved decisive again, and never mind shares of the
:04:31. > :04:37.national vote. Mitt Romney had to win most of them. Ohio, Virginia,
:04:37. > :04:41.Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, all went for Obama
:04:41. > :04:45.instead. Only North Carolina and Indiana chose the Republican
:04:45. > :04:53.candidate. Florida, that other key battleground remains too close to
:04:53. > :04:59.call, but it is clear that the Democrats targetsed -- targeted the
:04:59. > :05:02.swing states and ran a superb campaign. They had a tremendous
:05:02. > :05:06.volunteer turnout, they used technology in smart ways. If you
:05:06. > :05:09.were on Facebook yesterday, and signed into their app, every ten
:05:09. > :05:12.minutes, for most of the afternoon and evening, it would recommend a
:05:12. > :05:17.new set of people they wanted you to go and talk to in that swing
:05:17. > :05:23.state. Remind your friends to do this or that. That targeting of
:05:23. > :05:27.people, that sort of getting in people's, getting people to focus
:05:27. > :05:31.on reaching out to their friend, is really the critical thing. But they
:05:31. > :05:36.organised it all, in a very efficient way. At polling stations
:05:36. > :05:40.in Virginia, yesterday, our random survey confirmed this country's
:05:41. > :05:44.shifting electoral dynamics. The Republicans seemed too much like a
:05:45. > :05:49.party of angry white men, the Democrats had tailored their
:05:49. > :05:54.message better to women and ethnic minorities. At the end of the day,
:05:54. > :05:57.you have to draw the line down the centre of the paper and write
:05:57. > :06:01.what's good about this one and what is good about the other one, Obama
:06:01. > :06:06.had the longer list of good things. Four more years, that is definitely
:06:06. > :06:11.what I'm looking for, I'm so excited, thank you, Obama!
:06:11. > :06:16.The ethnic vote is increasingly important. Black voters were a key
:06:16. > :06:21.constituency for Barack Obama, in states like Virginia, where they
:06:21. > :06:26.represent 20% of the population, and 93% of them voted Obama. But
:06:26. > :06:31.the Hispanic vote is growing faster, and voting more Democrat, for
:06:31. > :06:39.example, in the Colorado battleground, 74% of Latinos voted
:06:39. > :06:45.Obama, up from 61% last time. So he won, despite the white vote
:06:45. > :06:51.increasing for Mitt Romney. And the demographic trends are visible even
:06:51. > :06:57.between elections. Ohio contained 4% fewer white voters than in 2008,
:06:57. > :07:01.and 4% more black ones. What you saw for the first time in 30 years,
:07:01. > :07:07.yesterday, was a set of social issues, the women's issues and gay
:07:07. > :07:13.rights, actually helping Democrats. In presidential election after
:07:13. > :07:18.election, going back to 1984, social issues like abortion, and
:07:18. > :07:21.crime and welfare, and gay marriage, have been used as bludgeons to
:07:22. > :07:25.attack Democrat. But as attitudes have changed, as the population has
:07:25. > :07:30.shifted, there has been an enormous change in the way people view, for
:07:30. > :07:35.example, the rights of gays and lesbian, that has had a huge impact
:07:35. > :07:40.on electoral politics too, that will probably continue.
:07:40. > :07:47.As the night wore on, in New York's times square, the scale of the
:07:47. > :07:51.victory became clearer to those who had gathered. But the challenger
:07:51. > :07:58.waited until the early hours before appearing in front of supporters in
:07:58. > :08:01.Boston to concede defeat. Thank you, thank you. I so wish, I so wish
:08:01. > :08:05.that I had been able to fulfil your hopes to lead the country in a
:08:05. > :08:10.different direction, but the nation chose another leader, and so Ann
:08:10. > :08:13.and I join with you to ernestly pray for him and for this great
:08:13. > :08:17.nation. Thank you and God bless America, you guys are the best,
:08:17. > :08:23.thank you so much. At the end of it all, though, the
:08:23. > :08:28.Republican candidate was weak and so was his message. Despite being
:08:28. > :08:34.around 80% white, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all stayed
:08:34. > :08:39.Democrat. Mitt Romney increased the Republican white share of the vote,
:08:39. > :08:44.but never above 57%. Mitt Romney had picked Paul Ryan from Wisconsin
:08:44. > :08:48.as his running mate, in Anne tempt to nail it. But in states -- in an
:08:48. > :08:52.attempt to nail it. But in states where union membership was above
:08:52. > :09:01.the national average, the President's help to the car
:09:01. > :09:07.industry and active base did it. The labour unions are amongst the
:09:07. > :09:12.heaviest spenders in American politics and highist constituents.
:09:12. > :09:19.In Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan, they provided a firewall.
:09:19. > :09:23.What you see is when you remember the angry white voter, if he's a
:09:23. > :09:29.union member, he behaves very differently electorally. That has a
:09:29. > :09:33.huge impact on the way that electorate works. So I would point
:09:33. > :09:38.to that phenomenon in particular, to understand why those states
:09:38. > :09:43.played out the way they did. In particular Wisconsin and Ohio, the
:09:43. > :09:52.issue of the autobail out was compelling. These are places with
:09:52. > :09:55.some of -- out toe bail out were compelling, -- auto bail out was
:09:55. > :10:01.xelgs. These are places of some of the biggest plants.
:10:01. > :10:06.It was a big banker or Obama, but it is also somewhere that was once
:10:06. > :10:13.solidly Republican, but which, with a candidate so influenced by the
:10:13. > :10:17.party's white wing idealogs, Mr Romney just couldn't win. The big
:10:17. > :10:21.thing is to be careful not to play to your base in the primaries, and
:10:21. > :10:25.hurt yourself in the general. The Romney people, in the die ex-
:10:25. > :10:29.section of their campaign, they will look -- desection of their
:10:29. > :10:39.campaign, they will look back and see they made enormous mistakes in
:10:39. > :10:39.
:10:39. > :10:42.the primaries, going to the Rick Perry, on immigration, by angered
:10:42. > :10:48.latteenys. They really cling clainged.
:10:48. > :10:50.By the time -- Those things really clanged. By the time President
:10:50. > :10:54.Obama leaves in 2016, the Republicans may offer the country
:10:54. > :11:01.something very different. Until then, Mr Obama will occupy office,
:11:01. > :11:05.facing challenges every bit as daunting as those of his first time.
:11:05. > :11:09.The former Vermont governor, Howard Dean, ran for the Democrat
:11:09. > :11:14.nomination for presidency in 2004, Andrew Sullivan is a New York-based
:11:14. > :11:19.writer, columnist and blogger, he joins us from there. Howard Dean,
:11:19. > :11:23.first off, this isn't really glad, confident morning, is it? It is not
:11:23. > :11:27.that kind of inheritance? It is, actually. I tell you why, obviously
:11:27. > :11:30.the President had a great victory, and to add two seats in the Senate
:11:30. > :11:34.is extraordinary. No-one in Washington thought that was going
:11:34. > :11:37.to happen. But the really big reason is, I think that this
:11:37. > :11:42.signals the end of the culture wars in this country. It won't be the
:11:42. > :11:46.end of the war, the right-wing will still fight rear guard actions,
:11:46. > :11:49.butt question for four states to essentially approve gay marriage,
:11:50. > :11:53.on ballot, never happened before in this country. I think that
:11:53. > :11:57.discussion and debate is over. There will be further discussion,
:11:57. > :12:00.but it won't be brought up in the campaigns. Abortion rights. This is
:12:00. > :12:05.the first time in my memory, this is the first time, period, that any
:12:05. > :12:10.candidate for President, on the Democratic side, has stood up and
:12:10. > :12:13.fought for abortion rights and gay rights in the campaign. And he won,
:12:13. > :12:18.and convincingly. Andrew Sullivan, what do you think we learned about
:12:18. > :12:23.America from this election? I think, firstly, one critical thing, which
:12:23. > :12:27.is the big original thing that Barack Obama did, was get America
:12:28. > :12:33.to universal healthcare. That was something that Presidents from
:12:33. > :12:37.Johnson, all the way through to Clinton had wanted, including Nixon.
:12:37. > :12:41.This election made that irreversible. That is a huge step
:12:41. > :12:46.for the United States of America. They not only re-elected a black
:12:46. > :12:56.President, but backed universal healthcare for everybody. That will
:12:56. > :12:56.
:12:56. > :13:00.not be undone. I think that is huge. I agrie, this is a fundamental
:13:00. > :13:04.alignment. You have a permanent Democratic majority out there,
:13:04. > :13:07.represented by the young and the minorities, especially women, that
:13:07. > :13:11.is beginning to lock as if the Republican Party will not be able
:13:11. > :13:17.to overcome it in the near or immediate or distant future. That
:13:18. > :13:26.is a huge realignment for Obama. He's the Democrat's Ronald Reagan,
:13:26. > :13:29.his impact will be that profound. They won't try to overcome it any
:13:29. > :13:33.more, the right-wing will, and they have a significance influence in
:13:33. > :13:39.the primaries, but the Republicans will concentrate on the economic
:13:39. > :13:44.issues, the only way to get voters under-35. There is a big market for
:13:44. > :13:51.a successful Republican Party in future, it can't include being
:13:51. > :13:55.anti- Islam, anti- women and anti- anything. Do you think President
:13:55. > :14:00.Obama is able to be more radical in his second term? I don't think he
:14:00. > :14:03.will, he wasn't in the first time. That's not his nature, he is a
:14:03. > :14:06.centrist, he is somebody who wants to bring people together. He will
:14:06. > :14:11.do that. I think he will take flack from my wing of the party as a
:14:11. > :14:16.result. Andrew Sullivan? Yes, I think so
:14:16. > :14:19.too. I think Barack Obama's essentially what we used to call a
:14:19. > :14:24.moderate Republican. He won a lot of people who call themselves
:14:24. > :14:33.moderates in this election. The Republican Party is an outliar in
:14:33. > :14:37.the entire best on almost -- outlier on the entire election. It
:14:37. > :14:45.believes climate change is a hoax, it thinks that gay people need to
:14:46. > :14:49.be kept in a second-class status permanently. We have had a
:14:49. > :14:52.Republican Party trapped in a bubble of its own creation, it has
:14:52. > :14:56.burst and this is a reality we see in front of us. This is America, it
:14:56. > :15:01.is Barack Obama's America. He proved last night that he really is
:15:01. > :15:06.the American in this race. Because, for the first time, he represents
:15:06. > :15:12.America, not the guy who looks like the dream of the American President
:15:12. > :15:17.from 1958, but this coffee-coloured, complicated black and white Midwest
:15:17. > :15:21.and Hawaiian, stranger and total friend, has become the face of
:15:21. > :15:25.America. And that's a significant and enormous shift in this
:15:25. > :15:31.country's culture. That is a heck of a task he's
:15:31. > :15:37.taking on at this time? He's ideally suited to do it. I think
:15:37. > :15:40.this is a momentous time in American history. Andrew's like,
:15:40. > :15:47.re-elected an African-American President is almost more important
:15:47. > :15:51.in elected him the first time. Here is what Americans just rejected, we
:15:51. > :15:55.rejected racism, homophobia, we rejected misogyny, and we stand for
:15:55. > :15:58.a diverse nation. I think that's an, we have a affirmed the American
:15:58. > :16:03.dream, in terms of what we wrote about in the constitution when we
:16:03. > :16:09.raised the bar on human rights. And, I think this is an extraordinary
:16:09. > :16:15.moment in American history. I really do. What do you think that
:16:15. > :16:20.recognition, just a second, will do to the challenges that he faces.
:16:20. > :16:24.These enormous, complicated challenges, let's leave aside the
:16:24. > :16:28.monetary crises in this country, Iran, the Middle East, these are
:16:28. > :16:33.really difficult times? They are very difficult times. The Iranians,
:16:33. > :16:37.this is the first President who has had a significant effect on Iran.
:16:37. > :16:44.The sanctions are hurting Iran, we need to continue. I'm a hardliner
:16:44. > :16:47.on Iran, it is a dangerous country with untrustworthy leadership. He's
:16:47. > :16:51.choking them off financially we can't have boots on the ground in
:16:51. > :16:55.Iran, we have been in Iraq for 11 years and Afghanistan for more, we
:16:55. > :16:58.can't. He's doing something and he's tough about it. I think
:16:58. > :17:03.eventually that will prevail. Pakistan is a more difficult
:17:03. > :17:06.problem, because it is the internal nature of the politics is so
:17:06. > :17:10.incredibly complicated, we can't straighten it out, we can certainly
:17:10. > :17:17.provide guidelines and some kind of walling off of their influence if
:17:17. > :17:23.we can, and the rest of the Muslim world. Supporting the Arab Spring,
:17:23. > :17:26.very smart thing to do. We stopped the historical American policy of
:17:26. > :17:30.supporting dictator, no matter how awful they were, as long as they
:17:30. > :17:35.were our friend. That is a lot of work to do there, and it is an
:17:35. > :17:38.important thing for America to do. You are sounding like a man who
:17:38. > :17:40.would like the job of Secretary of State, that job will be available
:17:40. > :17:44.too? Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Andrew Sullivan,
:17:44. > :17:49.what do you think will be the impact on the world stage of this
:17:49. > :17:55.second term? I think it is enormous. What we are threatening to happen,
:17:55. > :17:58.with Mitt Romney, in alliance with Binyamin Nethanyahu, was really a
:17:58. > :18:01.global religious conflict on steroids, if you weren't careful.
:18:01. > :18:06.The image that would have been sent in the direction of foreign policy,
:18:06. > :18:11.would have been dramatically back towards a Cheney-like position.
:18:11. > :18:14.Romney, for example, wanted to bring back waterboarding, torture,
:18:14. > :18:19.for example, into the American Government. That will not happen
:18:19. > :18:24.now America will remain what it has been for the last four years, which
:18:24. > :18:30.is, it's traditional internationalist position, without
:18:30. > :18:34.the unilateralism and triesism that accompanied Dick Cheney. That is a
:18:34. > :18:37.big deal with respect to the rest of the world. As to Israel, the
:18:37. > :18:42.only chance at this point that Israel has of getting a two-state
:18:42. > :18:46.solution, which will save it from demographic annihilation, is
:18:46. > :18:52.President Obama. He started from day one to try to get this fixed,
:18:52. > :18:55.he's still absolutely insistent it happen, I think we may see some
:18:55. > :18:58.surprises in the next couple of years, in terms it of Israel's
:18:58. > :19:03.self-understanding, and Israelis beginning to realise this man can't
:19:03. > :19:06.be run over, and we may have to deal with him, we may also save
:19:06. > :19:09.ourselves in the process. That is a very interesting point.
:19:09. > :19:14.The point that Andrew is making essentially is now Nethanyahu knows
:19:14. > :19:24.who he has to live with for the rest of his primeship. Now he may
:19:24. > :19:25.be a bit more -- prime ministership. It is a personal problem between
:19:25. > :19:29.President Obama and Binyamin Nethanyahu. Binyamin Nethanyahu
:19:29. > :19:32.realises who he has to deal with, and Andrew is exactly right about
:19:32. > :19:36.the problem in the Middle East. If they continue to occupy the
:19:36. > :19:41.territories, that is bad for Israel, let alone the Palestinians, because
:19:41. > :19:46.it has this ethnic, or demographic timebomb. Israel can't be from the
:19:46. > :19:49.Jordan to the Mediterranean, and be a democracy at the same time. They
:19:49. > :19:53.want very much to be a democracy. Gentlemen, thank you very much. We
:19:53. > :19:55.will be back with you in a moment or two. When you look at what
:19:55. > :20:00.President Obama has to deal with, it is sometimes hard to see why he
:20:00. > :20:03.wanted to keep the job. We will come to his biggest problem shortly,
:20:03. > :20:07.consider the Republican challenge. No surprise, perhaps, that nine out
:20:07. > :20:12.of ten black voters went with Obama, but the figures also show that
:20:12. > :20:16.women, who make up over half the electorate, Hispanic Americans, an
:20:16. > :20:20.increasing force in this country, overwhelmingly too went for him. In
:20:20. > :20:24.the words of one Republican senator, "they aren't generating enough
:20:24. > :20:29.angry white guys to stay in business for the long-term". Where
:20:29. > :20:33.do they go from here? One for Laura Trevelyan in Florida.
:20:33. > :20:39.Miami night life, but not as you imagine it. Florida Republicans
:20:39. > :20:44.huddled around Fox News last night, anxiously monitoring the results.
:20:44. > :20:47.Then this. The key moment of the evening.
:20:47. > :20:51.President Obama will win the crucial battleground state of Ohio.
:20:51. > :20:56.Not only did Mitt Romney fail to win the White House, it was clear
:20:57. > :21:00.the party performed lamentably with Hispanic and women voters. They
:21:00. > :21:03.need to communicate better the positions and explain that it is
:21:03. > :21:10.not, it is not like, that they believe in the Stone Age for women,
:21:10. > :21:12.they want to empower people. Typically it is Mexicans, Porto
:21:13. > :21:18.Ricans, the three big Hispanic nationalties in this country, they
:21:18. > :21:22.have to find way to communicate and make conservative principles more
:21:22. > :21:25.attractive to those groups. They may think it is simple, but the
:21:25. > :21:31.Republican Party's dominant TEA Party base doesn't agree. We have
:21:31. > :21:34.to become a more righteous nation. That's right. We have to become,
:21:34. > :21:40.understanding the difference between liberty and freedom and
:21:41. > :21:46.tyranny. Tired and emotional activists began haranguing a
:21:46. > :21:51.Congressman. As a battle looms between the party's idealo gs and
:21:51. > :21:56.pra mat tiss, some say it is time to reach out to a natural
:21:56. > :22:00.constituency. The Republican Party needs to do a better job of
:22:00. > :22:04.communicating to a lot of the, say the Hispanic community in the
:22:05. > :22:08.United States, which shares a lot of Republican Party values, but the
:22:08. > :22:12.Republican Party, in years past, has, I think, very aggressively
:22:12. > :22:15.said things that have hurt, and have caused a lot of damage
:22:15. > :22:21.politically. The face of this nation is changing.
:22:21. > :22:24.In 30 years time, one in three Americans will be Hispanic.
:22:24. > :22:30.Republicans fear this demographic shift could give Democrats a lock
:22:30. > :22:35.on national elections. As Florida goes, so goes the nation. For a lot
:22:35. > :22:39.of different reasons it is multilingualism, multiculturalism,
:22:39. > :22:44.the melting pot status of flour ka, the US is turning that way
:22:44. > :22:50.everywhere, -- Florida, it is turning that way everywhere, but we
:22:50. > :22:56.are faster on all fronts. Some say the Republican's electoral strategy
:22:56. > :23:04.is too focused on the white vote, which is shrinking. Back in 2004
:23:04. > :23:06.George W Bush actually won 40% of the Hispanic vote, since then, the
:23:06. > :23:10.party's rightward shift, particularly on immigration, has
:23:10. > :23:15.alienated this growing section of modern America. So what's to be
:23:15. > :23:21.done. We found the best analysis of the Republican's dilemma with
:23:21. > :23:26.voters, on the beach. Did you vote Republican? No I did not, mam.
:23:26. > :23:31.not? Honestly I don't agree with any of his positions, on healthcare
:23:31. > :23:39.especially, and anything with the middle-class. Republicans perform
:23:39. > :23:45.really badly among the Latino vote, does that surprise you? In my
:23:45. > :23:51.experience most Latinos are Republican kan, but vote Democrat
:23:51. > :23:59.because of the immigration issues. This was the last election where
:23:59. > :24:03.there even was a chance without the minority vote, and they lost
:24:03. > :24:09.because of it, that and women. The social issues are the problem for
:24:09. > :24:14.the GOP right now. As Republicans reflect on how best to court
:24:14. > :24:17.Hispanics, there will be an early test of how best to put their
:24:17. > :24:23.position. President Obama wants immigration reform, Republicans
:24:23. > :24:28.must soon decide how far to go. From Andrew Sullivan is still in
:24:28. > :24:34.New York for us. Here with me is Clark Judge, speechwriter for many
:24:34. > :24:38.a Republican President. What do you think, was wrong with the Romney
:24:38. > :24:44.proposition? Well, I'm not sure what was wrong, but how it was done.
:24:44. > :24:47.It didn't work, did it? Let's look at the totality of this election.
:24:47. > :24:51.Three branches, political branches of the US Government were up. The
:24:51. > :24:56.Democrats won the Senate, conshrisingly. The Republicans --
:24:56. > :24:59.convincingly. The Republicans won the House, also convincingly. The
:24:59. > :25:03.popular vote for the President more or less divided. What does that
:25:03. > :25:07.mean? There were a lot of ticket- spliter, there had to be to have an
:25:07. > :25:12.outcome like that. So what are they saying to us? They are saying, they
:25:12. > :25:14.are a little bit like your boss calling you in. Maybe another
:25:14. > :25:19.reporter in, and saying what do you think about this story, and you
:25:19. > :25:23.have one story and he has the other. Your boss leans back and says, I
:25:23. > :25:28.don't want to hear about this, you guys get together, figure it out,
:25:28. > :25:33.and make it work. That's what American people said to us, to the
:25:33. > :25:41.whole political establishment. President Obama, or rather Governor
:25:41. > :25:45.Romney tried to make this an election about economics. President
:25:45. > :25:49.Obama tried to make it about social issues, and they both succeeded,
:25:49. > :25:52.but with different groups within the population. Andrew Sullivan,
:25:52. > :25:56.according to that analysis the culture wars aren't over, are they?
:25:56. > :26:02.No they are not. The reason for that is that the Republican Party
:26:02. > :26:05.is not a traditional political party, that has making up its mind,
:26:05. > :26:09.based upon its rational self- interest. It is a fundamentalist
:26:09. > :26:16.religious party, whose position on a whole bunch of these issues is
:26:16. > :26:20.based upon fundamentalist, Protestant religion, that is a kind
:26:20. > :26:23.of ideology and theology that makes it extremely hard to change without
:26:23. > :26:28.some kind of meltdown. That is what we have to see first. The
:26:28. > :26:33.Republican Party has to get theself away from being a primarily
:26:33. > :26:38.religious movement, into becoming, once again, a more pragmatic,
:26:38. > :26:42.political movement. Keep those profound issues about whose God is
:26:42. > :26:46.true, and what we should do in our private lives, leave that to civil
:26:46. > :26:53.society, and tell us how conservatives want to tackle our
:26:53. > :26:58.practical, secular problems, growth, the budget, taxes, healthcare. I
:26:58. > :27:00.think that's their problem. How do you get religious fanatics to
:27:00. > :27:09.become political pragmatist, when you have handed over your entire
:27:09. > :27:14.party to them. That takes years to overcome. Well, what Andrew has
:27:14. > :27:21.said, I imagine he must have liked Mr Romney, because that's all Mr
:27:21. > :27:25.Romney talked about since the convention. He was talking about
:27:25. > :27:31.the budget, taxes, energy policy, he was talking about all of these
:27:31. > :27:34.kinds of things. Now, what went wrong? Some of it, I hate to say
:27:34. > :27:38.this, because I know it is not the theme here. Some of it was pretty
:27:38. > :27:43.much how they ran their campaign. President Obama ran a superb
:27:43. > :27:47.campaign, started very early, established his themes a year ago,
:27:47. > :27:53.and was consistent all the way through. Mr Romney didn't really
:27:53. > :27:58.get to his themes until the convention, and then didn't really
:27:58. > :28:03.well articulate them until the debate. Very late. That was a big
:28:03. > :28:09.problem, he never really caught up with the President. But do you see
:28:09. > :28:15.no need for an ideolgical redefinition or rerepresentation of
:28:15. > :28:19.the party? I have been hearing this all day about the re-representation.
:28:19. > :28:23.They split the popular vote, and the two parties split the
:28:23. > :28:28.lengthsure, the Congress. So -- legislature, the Congress. There
:28:28. > :28:32.are problems whenever you redefine a group, a party. You jettison some
:28:32. > :28:35.groups, even as you try to pick up others. Those others have
:28:35. > :28:39.allegiances to the other party, why should they come over to you. You
:28:39. > :28:47.look for the group inbetween, and that group inbetween has been
:28:47. > :28:50.moving back and forth. Mr Obama was largely more effective at
:28:51. > :28:54.articulating his message, and particularly his social issue
:28:54. > :28:57.messages to the groups that most cared about it. That's the
:28:57. > :29:01.difference here. Andrew Sullivan, you have laid out very clearly what
:29:01. > :29:07.you think the party has to do, are there people prominent in the party,
:29:07. > :29:12.who would make a better candidate embodying those beliefs? There was
:29:12. > :29:22.one, this time round. A man called Jon Huntsman, who couldn't get more
:29:22. > :29:23.
:29:23. > :29:28.than 1% of the primary vote. It reminds me of the Tories as Labour
:29:28. > :29:33.took over, they listened more and more to themselves, and it took a
:29:33. > :29:37.generation to try and come back and win. This was not a draw this
:29:37. > :29:41.election, President Obama won it, clearly, won it much more clearly
:29:41. > :29:45.than George W Bush did in 2000 and yet Bush ran on a very strong
:29:45. > :29:49.mandate. This was not a draw, it was a win for President Obama, and
:29:49. > :29:53.the Democratic party in the Senate, and the people who lost in the
:29:53. > :29:56.Senate in the Republican Party, were precisely the religious
:29:56. > :30:02.fundamentalists that now control that party. Someone, somewhere has
:30:02. > :30:08.to get control of that party, away from religion.
:30:08. > :30:14.You wouldn't call the campaign that Mitt Romney ran as religious. You
:30:15. > :30:22.wouldn't call the campaign in the House that led to the House victory
:30:22. > :30:26.as not indicating a broad base. What we did see in the way that
:30:26. > :30:32.President Obama ran his campaign was that he was very good at
:30:32. > :30:39.spreading out his strength where Mr Romney was not as good. Mr Romney
:30:39. > :30:41.failed to appeal to black people in sufficient numbers, to women in
:30:41. > :30:46.sufficient numbers? With the first African-American President, of
:30:46. > :30:51.course he didn't. The Hispanics, women? The Hispanic vote, we do
:30:51. > :30:55.have an issue with the Hispanic vote, that ought to be with the
:30:55. > :31:00.Republican Party, at least on the kinds of issues that Mr Surlivan we
:31:00. > :31:04.ought to abandon. And the Hispanic voters are more entreprenurial as a
:31:04. > :31:09.vote, and upwardly mobile vote, it should be with the Republican Party.
:31:09. > :31:13.You are exactly right, we should be reaching out to that much more.
:31:13. > :31:17.failed? We did, but he pulled in other groups. When you get as close
:31:18. > :31:21.an election in the popular vote as we have, you are not talking about
:31:21. > :31:27.the kind of upheaval we have been hearing about all through the day.
:31:28. > :31:32.You are talking about addressing some very specific problems, and
:31:32. > :31:41.being very focused about them. And that's where Mr Romney fell a bit
:31:41. > :31:46.short. Can I give awe -- you how specific
:31:46. > :31:50.religion us was. Abortion was a big issue, and the debate in the
:31:50. > :31:54.Republican Party is whether it might be legal even in cases of --
:31:54. > :31:58.illegal even cases of rape, that is where they are. They want to
:31:58. > :32:02.criminalise abortion in every state regardless of their positions,
:32:02. > :32:06.criminalise it, the only debate is about whether a woman was raped she
:32:06. > :32:11.would have to be brought to term. That is where they are in terms of
:32:11. > :32:15.women's issues. Now that is based upon religion, and an idea about
:32:15. > :32:20.biology and about women's role in the world. When you have majority
:32:21. > :32:24.women electorate you are going to lose. Look, Mr Surlivan, apparently
:32:24. > :32:29.hasn't been paying attention to the Republican Party. Because, first of
:32:29. > :32:32.all, the men who said those words about rape were immediately
:32:32. > :32:37.disavowed, the first one was immediately disavowed, it was a
:32:37. > :32:44.little late to do it with the other one. They were immediately
:32:44. > :32:51.disavowed and abandoned by the party. They both ran? But they were
:32:51. > :32:59.off the wall. What you had on abortion in the Republican Party,
:32:59. > :33:03.the position, broadly, is remove Row versus Wade and then the party
:33:03. > :33:06.has many, many positions on where abortion should be. It has one
:33:06. > :33:10.position, which is a federal amendment. I have to bring it to an
:33:10. > :33:13.end. We are going to have to bring it to an end. Thank you both very
:33:13. > :33:16.much. Leaving aside what he has to do about simple matters such as
:33:16. > :33:22.Iran and the Middle East. There is a sense in which Obama is like a
:33:22. > :33:25.man who has fought off a hijacker and wrestled back control of the
:33:25. > :33:29.steering wheel of a juggernaut, only to realise the road he's on
:33:29. > :33:33.leads straight to a brick wall or over a cliff. The thing they talk
:33:33. > :33:36.about here is a fiscal cliff in simple terms in eight weeks time
:33:36. > :33:39.taxes will go through the roof at the same time as there are huge
:33:39. > :33:44.cuts to public spending. It is authoritatively expected tip the
:33:44. > :33:48.country back into recession, if it happens. And furthermore, it is a
:33:48. > :33:51.legal obligation. Our Economics Editor Paul Mason is our resident
:33:51. > :33:56.Cassandra. America spends like a superpower,
:33:56. > :34:02.taxes like a nation that believes in small Government. As a result,
:34:02. > :34:07.its debt stands at $16 trillion. That is 104% of GDP, higher than
:34:07. > :34:11.any developed country except Japan, and it has been growing at over $1
:34:11. > :34:17.trillion a year. Last summer Congress, controlled by the
:34:17. > :34:21.Republican, said, enough. Spurred on by the Tea Party movement, they
:34:21. > :34:24.refused to lift the debt ceiling, threatening the Government with
:34:24. > :34:29.shutdown. The President was forced to agree to mandatory, across the
:34:29. > :34:33.board spending cuts, from January 2nd next year. This, together with
:34:33. > :34:38.the expiry of massive tax cuts from the Bush era, creates the fiscal
:34:38. > :34:42.cliff. Here is why they call it a cliff. The combined impact of the
:34:42. > :34:47.tax rises and spending cuts, will be to slash the deficit immediately,
:34:47. > :34:51.by half a trillion dollars over the next year, and over three years it
:34:51. > :34:54.would fall to 1% of GDP, but the economic impact would be huge, it
:34:54. > :34:59.would push America immediately into recession. The fiscal cliff matters,
:34:59. > :35:04.not just to Americans, but to Europe too. Economists think, if
:35:04. > :35:09.the full programme is applied, it could push Europe into a deep
:35:09. > :35:13.recession and half growth in China. The IMF have said, don't do it, so
:35:13. > :35:16.there is huge pressure on President Obama not to step off the fiscal
:35:16. > :35:22.cliff. But, from Republicans in Congress,
:35:22. > :35:26.the pressure is the other way. won't solve the problem of our
:35:26. > :35:31.fiscal imbalance overnight. And certainly won't do it in a lame
:35:32. > :35:35.duck session of Congress. And it won't be solved simply by raising
:35:35. > :35:41.taxes and taking a plunge off the fiscal cliff. What we can do is
:35:41. > :35:44.avert the cliff in a manner that service as a downpayment on and a
:35:44. > :35:49.catalyst for major solution, enacted in 2013, to begin to solve
:35:49. > :35:51.the problem. Making the compromise will not be
:35:51. > :35:54.easy, the Republicans retained control of the house of
:35:54. > :36:02.representatives last night, and they are sore. There will be a
:36:02. > :36:07.fight it keep the spending cuts. And it will not be pretty.
:36:07. > :36:12.Neera Tandem was head of tkpwhesic policy for Obama, Daniel Mitchell
:36:12. > :36:17.from the Cato Institute has worked for the Republican Party in the
:36:17. > :36:21.Senate. Is this a major problem or opportunity? For the President, the
:36:21. > :36:26.situations we face? I think this was an historic election. Sure, but
:36:27. > :36:34.the fiscal crisis, this is weeks away? Yes, absolutely. But I think,
:36:34. > :36:37.what I was saying is, I think people did not expect the
:36:38. > :36:42.Democratic majorities we have. The Senate Democrats expanded a
:36:42. > :36:46.majority. The real issue on the table is whether the Republican
:36:46. > :36:50.Party will shift on revenue, that is always the question. Today you
:36:50. > :36:54.have seen the speaker talk a little bit more about revenue than in the
:36:54. > :37:04.past. The issue here is, we know what to do around the fiscal cliff,
:37:04. > :37:06.
:37:06. > :37:10.it is whether there is political resolve to do it. With the election
:37:10. > :37:14.results and Republican Party Congress coming to the table to
:37:14. > :37:20.discuss it. This is a fight we have had for a while, because voters
:37:20. > :37:25.don't want to see higher taxes, it is like giving the keys to a liquor
:37:25. > :37:29.store to alcoholics to put more revenue on the table in Washington.
:37:29. > :37:35.Looking at Spain, Italy, raising taxes, Republicans don't want to go
:37:35. > :37:38.down that path, but there is the specter of automatic tax increases
:37:38. > :37:43.if something isn't done. Either Obama has to give, or Republicans
:37:43. > :37:47.have to give, or they both have to give. When politicians meet in a
:37:47. > :37:50.room in Washington, tax-payers usually lose, I'm not optimistic,
:37:50. > :37:55.you will be happy, probably, I won't. That is a misreading of the
:37:56. > :37:59.election. If you look at the exit poll, the data is 64% of Americans
:37:59. > :38:02.want higher taxes for wealthy Americans, that is the issue the
:38:02. > :38:06.President campaigned on. To say that this issue that the President
:38:06. > :38:11.campaigned on, and of in every debate, and was part of his
:38:11. > :38:14.campaign stump, it is not going to be a surprise. Can it be fudged
:38:15. > :38:17.now? I don't believe it can be. First of all you can't spend the
:38:17. > :38:23.fiscal crisis with spending alone. I think Greece and all these
:38:24. > :38:27.countries are a great example. will put the country back into
:38:27. > :38:30.recession? Here is the issue, if we have austerity measure that is
:38:30. > :38:36.simply put their weight on the backs of middle-class Americans,
:38:36. > :38:39.then we are going to face the kinds of crisis that Europe is face, less
:38:39. > :38:43.growth, not more growth. I will make awe deal, if you say Obama
:38:43. > :38:47.gets the higher tax rates because he campaigned on it, does that mean
:38:47. > :38:51.we get to undo Obamacare and fake stimulus because he didn't campaign
:38:51. > :38:54.on those. The American people are split on these issues in reality,
:38:54. > :38:59.the question is, what economy anywhere in the history of the
:38:59. > :39:01.world has made itself better by increasing tax rates on
:39:01. > :39:04.entrepeneurs and small business owners. The problem with Washington
:39:05. > :39:08.is the town is filled with bloated bureaucracies that are doing things
:39:09. > :39:14.that central Government shouldn't do. In 1993 President Clinton
:39:14. > :39:18.raised tax, the rate went from 35% to 36%, we had a large increase on
:39:18. > :39:21.taxes in wealthy Americans in eight years of growth. That is just the
:39:21. > :39:27.facts of American his treatment we can say these things aren't true,
:39:27. > :39:32.but they are. But in 1995, Clinton's own OMB said there would
:39:32. > :39:35.be deficits of $200 billion plus. There weren't. As far as I can see
:39:35. > :39:40.with the election of the Republicans in 1994 changed the
:39:40. > :39:44.spending trend line. That is the whole key to fiscal policy, the
:39:44. > :39:48.private sector should grow faster than the public, Obama wants it to
:39:48. > :39:54.be like Greece and the other way round. They re-elected him
:39:54. > :39:58.yesterday. And the House. You have all these Credit Rating Agencies
:39:58. > :40:01.deciding if the American Governments are trustworthy or not?
:40:01. > :40:04.They are a lagging indicator not a leading indicator. If they are
:40:05. > :40:08.about to pass judgment, you are in trouble as a Government? We are in
:40:08. > :40:12.trouble as a Government. There is no question about it. Bush was a
:40:12. > :40:16.big spender, Obama is a big spender, I suspect whoever is President in
:40:16. > :40:18.2016 will be a big spender. Politicians buy their way to re-
:40:18. > :40:25.election by spending other people's money. That is why we are all in
:40:25. > :40:29.trouble. England, the US, France, big trouble. You know, you actual
:40:29. > :40:33.loo think there is a lot of doom- saying about the American economy.
:40:33. > :40:36.But it is growing better than the rest of the world at this rate.
:40:36. > :40:40.trillion of debt? The difference between the United States and other
:40:40. > :40:43.countries, is people are investing here. People are deciding to move
:40:43. > :40:45.their money from other countries, into the United States, and
:40:45. > :40:55.investors are putting their money in the United States because they
:40:55. > :40:56.
:40:56. > :40:59.know America is a good bet. The the reason why they think America is a
:40:59. > :41:03.good bet, because our trend lines in growth are increasing. One of
:41:03. > :41:06.the reasons the President won yesterday is more people were
:41:06. > :41:11.optimistic about the future yesterday than they were a year ago,
:41:11. > :41:14.two years ago three years ago. You are right, we do have a fiscal
:41:14. > :41:17.challenge. We can address it. It is a long-term fiscal challenge, it
:41:17. > :41:22.can be addressed. The difference between the two parties, and this
:41:22. > :41:27.was an issue in the campaign, was are you going to put the burden of
:41:27. > :41:31.the debt, only on the middle-class, or are you going to ask the wealthy
:41:31. > :41:36.pay their fair share, as President Clinton did in 1993, and we got
:41:36. > :41:42.years of growth from it. We will reconvene on December 31st perhaps.
:41:42. > :41:46.Thank you very much. Despite what you, all of us heard from so many
:41:46. > :41:50.self-proclaimed expert, the outcome of the campaign came nowhere near
:41:50. > :41:55.in legal wranglings and hanging Chads and all that. They would be
:41:56. > :41:58.the last to admit all of that, but predicting an election is an
:41:58. > :42:03.imprecise science, however precise the figures might appear. There is
:42:03. > :42:08.a lot of egg on lots of faces, more fool us for taking them seriously.
:42:08. > :42:13.There were some who got it right, staggeringly right in some case.
:42:13. > :42:15.No-one got it as wrong as the Chicago Tribune got it in the 19478
:42:16. > :42:21.presidential election, the man holding the front page is Harry
:42:21. > :42:27.Truman, who had really won! Is polling today any more
:42:27. > :42:33.sophisticated than a coin toss. Listen to the Republican pollster,
:42:33. > :42:37.Dick Morris on Folk News last week. We will win by a landslide, it will
:42:37. > :42:41.be the biggest surprise in recent American political his treatment it
:42:41. > :42:48.will rekindle the whole question as to why the media played this race
:42:48. > :42:52.as a nail-biter. Mr Morris's line today was, it was all the fault of
:42:52. > :43:00.Hurricane Sandy. There was a handful of analysts who got it
:43:00. > :43:05.pretty right. The new force here is an Englishman, Thomas Baize, a
:43:05. > :43:12.Presbyterian minister, who departed life in 1763. He will be turning in
:43:12. > :43:19.the grave to hear it, he was the inspiration in the Brad Pitt film,
:43:19. > :43:23.Moneyball, there is a new formula to create a winning side. We are
:43:23. > :43:30.card counter, at the black Jack table, we will turn the odds on the
:43:30. > :43:34.casino. You don't put a team together on a computer. Drew Linzer
:43:34. > :43:39.is part of the team of statisticians, and appears to have
:43:39. > :43:46.called the election exactly right. What's the difference between you
:43:46. > :43:50.and an old fashioned pundit, Drew Linzer? Well, when I look at the
:43:50. > :43:53.election, what I'm looking at are measures of public opinion, that
:43:54. > :43:57.come out of public opinion surveys. These are reliable sources of
:43:57. > :44:00.information, and by putting those together in a systematic way, we
:44:01. > :44:09.can get a pretty good idea of how people will actually vote on
:44:09. > :44:14.election day. So these are good times to be a statistician, as op
:44:14. > :44:18.poised to someone who intu -- as och posed to someone who
:44:18. > :44:23.intuitively looks at the polls and believes they know what might
:44:23. > :44:26.happen? There is no need for intuition if you have a systematic
:44:26. > :44:31.understanding of how the polls are produced and what the information
:44:31. > :44:34.they contain is. We know polls contain various sources of error,
:44:34. > :44:39.there are ways of analysing the polls in aggregate to remove the
:44:39. > :44:43.source of error. What we found in 2008 and this year, is public
:44:43. > :44:47.opinion surveys, on average, close to the election, provide a very
:44:47. > :44:51.accurate snapshot of how people will actually vote. And so, by
:44:51. > :44:55.putting all these poll together, people like me and others, who take
:44:55. > :45:01.this sort of statistical viewpoint, are able to make very accurate
:45:01. > :45:10.predictions of how the vote will turn out yesterday.
:45:10. > :45:14.Others who followed another methodology, made an inaccurate
:45:14. > :45:19.prediction or two? They did, I don't know what else to add about
:45:19. > :45:22.that. I think had a our goal, as people who watch the election,
:45:23. > :45:26.should be to provide accurate information. And there are sources
:45:26. > :45:30.of information, like public opinion poll, that have historically proven
:45:30. > :45:35.to be accurate. That continued to be accurate. And I personally don't
:45:35. > :45:39.know why we shouldn't use those and take advantage of those sources of
:45:39. > :45:45.information, and why someone thinks that their gut, or their intuition
:45:45. > :45:48.will do better than that, I really couldn't say.
:45:48. > :45:56.You are a naturally very modest man, clearly. Would you like to come
:45:56. > :46:01.over and predict some British elections for us? I would be happy
:46:01. > :46:06.to, if you have the public opinion data for me, I'm sure I can put
:46:06. > :46:10.together a model that would try to ebgts tract the information in
:46:10. > :46:14.those -- extract the information in those polls. Drew Linzer thank you
:46:14. > :46:18.very much for joining us. Thank you. That's it from Washington. By the
:46:18. > :46:21.time there's another presidential election here, we shall have had
:46:21. > :46:31.the chance to decide whether we want another David Cameron
:46:31. > :46:58.
:46:58. > :47:02.Good evening, a frost-free night to come tonight. Thanks to the breeze
:47:02. > :47:06.and cloud and showers. Wet weather in the south of England, clearing,
:47:06. > :47:10.a few showers elsewhere, not as wet a day in Scotland. Brighter in
:47:10. > :47:17.Northern Ireland. Brightening up through the day. North West England,
:47:17. > :47:20.there will be plenty of cloud, one or two sunnier breaks not out of
:47:20. > :47:24.the question. In southern England occasional sunshine through the
:47:24. > :47:26.second half of the day. Temperatures 10-12. The key thing,
:47:26. > :47:31.compared with what we saw this afternoon, temperatures the same,
:47:31. > :47:35.the winds will fall lighter after a breezy start. It will feel a touch
:47:35. > :47:39.milder. For Wales we will see sunny break develop, not necessarily just
:47:39. > :47:44.to the east, across western areas sunshine too. In Northern Ireland
:47:44. > :47:54.best of the sunny breaks best across Antrim Down and Armagh.
:47:54. > :48:07.
:48:07. > :48:10.Western Scotland a dry and brighter There you go, we have a weather