:00:12. > :00:17.This is a momentous week, first, the US election, now a power play
:00:17. > :00:22.that's at least as important. The confirmation that the Chinese elite
:00:22. > :00:26.will steer the country through the next decade. We assess the extent
:00:26. > :00:34.and limits of the change in the next ten years. China will evolve
:00:34. > :00:38.its own type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. America
:00:38. > :00:41.and China are tied together in a tight economic embrace, they are
:00:41. > :00:44.the two mightiest nations in the world, will one squeeze the breath
:00:44. > :00:48.out of the other. Now the campaign is over, the
:00:48. > :00:55.President has to return to the practical realities of dealing with
:00:55. > :00:59.China. We speak to Henry kin injure, the
:00:59. > :01:09.architect of Chinese relations, in his first interview since President
:01:09. > :01:12.
:01:12. > :01:15.Obama was elected. We will discuss China's future path with our guests.
:01:15. > :01:17.The Prime Minister issues this warning about trial by Twitter.
:01:18. > :01:25.This is really important, right, because there is a danger, if we're
:01:25. > :01:29.not careful, that this could turn into a sort of "witch-hunt"
:01:29. > :01:39.particularly against people who are gay. Are some politicians being
:01:39. > :01:45.
:01:45. > :01:48.unfairly hounded by social media. The leadership of the world's
:01:48. > :01:53.second-largest economy is being replaced according to plan. But the
:01:53. > :01:59.in coming President and his gang of six will come under increasing
:01:59. > :02:03.internal and external pressure. As Hu Jintao hands It's All Over Now
:02:03. > :02:08.to Xi Jinping, the claum mour over the country for the elite is even
:02:08. > :02:13.louder. The need to do move millions from
:02:13. > :02:23.the country to city more intense, anger at the surveillance state
:02:23. > :02:24.
:02:24. > :02:31.louder. Hu Jintao said there will be no western-style democracy, will
:02:32. > :02:40.you how long will this fuel protest d -- how long will this fuel more
:02:40. > :02:50.ports protests. There is theatre, spectacle, but no
:02:50. > :02:52.
:02:52. > :03:01.drama. Improvisation is not encouraged, nor, indeed, expression.
:03:01. > :03:09.Nor, indeed, voting against. The script at the party Congress is
:03:09. > :03:17.simple. The handover of leadership from one generation to the next.
:03:17. > :03:20.The outgoing man, Hu Jintao, leaving them with a stark warning.
:03:20. > :03:26.TRANSLATION: Combatting corruption, and promoting politic kalg
:03:26. > :03:29.integrity is a clear-cut and -- political integrity, a clear-cut
:03:29. > :03:32.and long-term commitment of the party. If we fail to handle this
:03:32. > :03:37.issue well, it could prove fatal to the party and even cause the
:03:37. > :03:47.collapse of the party and the fall of the state.
:03:47. > :03:47.
:03:47. > :03:51.Recent events have shown, the order is fragile. This man, until
:03:51. > :03:58.recently the third-most powerful man in China was disgraced, after
:03:58. > :04:04.his wife was convicted of murdering a businessman. What world needs now
:04:04. > :04:08.is calm. One thing you can say about China is after the Cultural
:04:08. > :04:15.Revolution their leader decided they needed consensus, and didn't
:04:15. > :04:22.need radical departures in policy. One of the reasons that the former
:04:22. > :04:26.chief was Petersburged, he wasn't that kind of leader, he had a lot
:04:26. > :04:35.of different ideas. He threatened to upset the balance. Now there
:04:35. > :04:41.will be a lot of continuity. Tygart square massacre in 1989 --
:04:41. > :04:46.Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 brought a split between the party.
:04:46. > :04:52.The leadership vowed never to let the debate on political and
:04:52. > :04:56.economic change splil outen to to the streets. In-- split outen to to
:04:56. > :05:04.the streets -- spill out on to the streets.
:05:04. > :05:09.The committee falls into two camp, one loyal to Jiang Zemin, and the
:05:09. > :05:12.other for Hu Jintao. They built in the coastal provinces,
:05:12. > :05:17.stand against democratic reform, and a more rapid move to the free
:05:17. > :05:22.market. They are, in this sense, the most capital communists in
:05:22. > :05:28.China. The group around Hu, came up within the party's youth league.
:05:28. > :05:33.Their slogan, "promote social harmony", is code for delivering
:05:33. > :05:38.better lifestyles to peasants and alleviating social conflict. The
:05:38. > :05:42.new leader, Xi Jinping, comes from the Jiang faction. Who is he?
:05:42. > :05:47.experienced a lot of hardship, he went to the countryside at the age
:05:47. > :05:54.of 15, he spent seven years in the backwater regions in China, and
:05:54. > :06:00.started working at every level of the Chinese Government. Until now.
:06:00. > :06:03.This is a Shanghai academic, whose best-selling book is said to have
:06:03. > :06:11.influenced the new leader. This is a personality, and this is very
:06:11. > :06:19.important. Often he can speak his mind openly. He has his own style.
:06:19. > :06:29.What will he do differently, to Hu Jintao? I think he said many times,
:06:29. > :06:30.
:06:30. > :06:36.whenever he takes up a new position. He wants to see what his
:06:36. > :06:43.predecessor has done, he wants to maintain some continuity. But the
:06:43. > :06:48.party can't afford just continuity. Outside the Great Hall of the
:06:48. > :06:51.People, this brief and stifled protest, just a small echo of the
:06:51. > :06:56.problems China faces, the middle- class wants a bigger slice of the
:06:56. > :07:00.pie. The Internet is awash with grievance. The environment under
:07:00. > :07:04.severe strain. Xi Jinping, with strong links to the military, could
:07:04. > :07:08.be the man to advance where his predecessor could not go, towards
:07:08. > :07:12.more democracy within the party, and more political freedom. But
:07:12. > :07:19.will he? Understanding what they are trying to say at this Congress
:07:19. > :07:24.is not easy. Take this, the political bureau has
:07:24. > :07:28.comprehensively pushed forward the social, economic, political, social
:07:28. > :07:32.and conservation culture construction. With various causes
:07:32. > :07:36.achieving remarkable results. It is impervious to logic, how would you
:07:36. > :07:41.argue it wasn't remarkable or comprehensive, and what causes. But
:07:41. > :07:46.the sub-text to all this is clear, the Chinese leadership has seen the
:07:46. > :07:54.Arab Spring and is terrified of a Chinese spring.
:07:54. > :07:58.The Chinese now talk about how to prevent a revolution. People
:07:58. > :08:06.compare the French Revolution many, many years ago, saying that you
:08:06. > :08:12.need to sometimes start to change, that will start political reform,
:08:12. > :08:17.this is the most dangerous period for revolution. Some conservatives
:08:18. > :08:21.also like this argument. Facing strikes and disturbances,
:08:22. > :08:25.always heavily repressed, the leadership, in September, provoked
:08:25. > :08:29.the own disturbances. Picking a fight with Japan over disputed
:08:30. > :08:34.islands. And allowing large street
:08:34. > :08:39.demonstrations to close down Japanese factories. There is much
:08:39. > :08:43.to the island's dispute that is, again, theatre, but it has left the
:08:43. > :08:49.west and China's neighbours wondering where things go next.
:08:49. > :08:54.Well, the outgoing leader dropped a heavy hint today. TRANSLATION:
:08:54. > :08:59.should enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military
:08:59. > :09:04.tasks, the most important of which is to have the ability to win local
:09:04. > :09:08.wars in an information age. Last year President Obama authorised a
:09:08. > :09:16.major redeployment by the US military to Asia. Known as The
:09:16. > :09:20.Pivot, it involves moving 9,000 US Marines from Japan, to Guame,
:09:20. > :09:25.Australia and a-ha I wouldia, together with strategic systems,
:09:25. > :09:29.putting four ships into the vital lane of Singapore, moving a fifth
:09:29. > :09:32.of ships into the Atlantic, including an aircraft carrier to
:09:32. > :09:37.Austrailia. There is thought of moving some of the troops in
:09:37. > :09:40.Afghanistan to the Philippines. American pivot was the most
:09:40. > :09:44.important thing the Obama administration did. It was amazing
:09:44. > :09:48.that in none of the debates was there any discussion about its
:09:48. > :09:53.appropriateness, or what it's future should be. Since the
:09:53. > :09:56.financial crisis of four years a the Chinese have been much more
:09:56. > :10:00.assertive in foreign policy, particularly in these territorial
:10:00. > :10:03.disputes in the South China Sea. They have been saying some pretty
:10:03. > :10:08.outrageous things about, for example, the fact that none of the
:10:08. > :10:11.states in that area can talk to each other about how to deal with
:10:11. > :10:17.the rising China, they all have to simply deal with China bilaterally.
:10:17. > :10:23.On the eve of the Congress, an influential party thee rice warned
:10:23. > :10:28.that America's real -- therapist warned that America's real threat
:10:28. > :10:34.was underground religious actives, dissidents, internet, and
:10:34. > :10:36.vulnerable groups, with core constituent sits, with the aim of
:10:36. > :10:40.infiltrating China's grassroots. There was outrage when this was
:10:40. > :10:46.published, because of the overtones of moo era witch-hunts. Those close
:10:46. > :10:51.to the leadership -- Mao era witch- hunt. Those close to the leadership
:10:51. > :10:56.say there is no problem with that at all? China will develop its own
:10:56. > :11:05.type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. I describe it as
:11:05. > :11:11.selection, plus some kind of election. Over the past 2,200 years,
:11:11. > :11:17.since China's unification in 221BC, China was run by a one-party
:11:17. > :11:21.political structure. At the top level it is always a unified
:11:21. > :11:29.confusion state, without this kind of structure the country
:11:29. > :11:35.disintegrates. If you check with Chinese what is the greatest fear
:11:35. > :11:44.in their life, they would agree that it is "chaos". And, right on
:11:44. > :11:48.cue, the past master of dealing with chaos was brought out today.
:11:49. > :11:54.Jiang Zemin himself, 86 years old, the grand symbol of ri presidential
:11:54. > :11:59.was given centre stage. On -- repression was given centre stage.
:11:59. > :12:07.On a day of heavy symbolism, it left many thinking Back to the
:12:07. > :12:17.Future. My guest joins me now. We have heard there of the maintaining
:12:17. > :12:22.
:12:22. > :12:27.of continuity with the new premier. What do you think his rule will be
:12:27. > :12:33.like? Let me say, I was struck tremenduously in the Great Hall of
:12:33. > :12:41.the People, by the similarities of going to those big Congresss, that
:12:41. > :12:45.the Soviet Communist Party used to hold, back in 1987, 18988, and 1989,
:12:45. > :12:51.when it was trying to -- 1988, and 1989, when it was trying to work
:12:51. > :12:55.out where it was going to go to. There is lots of major differences,
:12:55. > :13:00.no Gorbachev figure here. Never the less, that sense of change just
:13:00. > :13:06.kind of bubbling up all round, and yet nobody knowing how to harness
:13:06. > :13:11.it, where it's going to take them, it was really very strong indeed. I
:13:11. > :13:15.think, I mean this new leadership is nothing very much more than a
:13:15. > :13:21.kind of extension of the previous one. Everybody knows it has to do
:13:21. > :13:25.things, and it has to do things fairly radically. Everybody thinks
:13:25. > :13:30.it's not really going to be up to the job of doing anything very
:13:30. > :13:33.radical. It was pretty amazing, really, to listen to President Hu
:13:33. > :13:37.going on about the urgent need to do something about corruption. This
:13:37. > :13:45.is right at the end of ten years of his rule. Why didn't he do anything
:13:45. > :13:50.about it. He has talked about it plenty of times before. It just had
:13:50. > :13:55.the sense of a party system which is faced with huge problems, as
:13:55. > :13:59.well as huge successes, and doesn't really know quite what to do, and
:13:59. > :14:04.so just kind of goes on, walking along in the same direction, in the
:14:04. > :14:09.hope that something will happen. that case, what do you think will
:14:09. > :14:19.characterise China's relationship with a second term of an Obama
:14:19. > :14:19.
:14:19. > :14:22.administration? The attitude towards America's really
:14:23. > :14:28.interesting here. I have watched it change over the years. The old
:14:28. > :14:33.attitude used to be that of a kind of resentful, secondary power,
:14:33. > :14:39.which felt that it was being held back, it was being unfairly
:14:39. > :14:47.criticised, unfairly attacked, and so forth, by the United States.
:14:47. > :14:52.That's changed now. After four years of Barack Obama, the Chinese
:14:52. > :14:57.system doesn't really have any great fears about him. Well, I have
:14:57. > :15:01.to say t it is not a very nice thing to say, really, in a way. But
:15:01. > :15:09.one figure with very, very strong links to the top party people was
:15:09. > :15:13.saying they think they can push him around, quite easily. So, the whole
:15:13. > :15:17.approach has changed towards America. Frank low, it is in this -
:15:17. > :15:20.- frankly, it is in this part of the world, in Asia, at the moment,
:15:20. > :15:23.that the Chinese see their main area of operations.
:15:23. > :15:29.We will be discussing that later, thank you very much indeed.
:15:29. > :15:33.During the American election, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama
:15:33. > :15:36.levelled varying degrees of criticism at China, particularly
:15:36. > :15:41.over its economic practices, including industrial espionage.
:15:41. > :15:44.China railed against what it sees as American protectionism, most
:15:44. > :15:49.recently over solar energy products. Each country is the biggest market
:15:49. > :15:52.for each other's exports. They are bound together. Is the idea of any
:15:52. > :15:56.military conflict between the two superpowers unthinkable, if so,
:15:56. > :15:58.what will be the defining feature of their relationship for the next
:15:58. > :16:08.decade. I should warn you this piece
:16:08. > :16:23.
:16:23. > :16:28.The lesson of history is weak empires give way to the strong.
:16:28. > :16:34.And America's current preoccupation with China has produced these
:16:34. > :16:37.political attack ad, as well as plenty of campaign rhetoric.
:16:37. > :16:43.They are artificially lowering prices and killing American jobs.
:16:43. > :16:46.We can't just sit back and let China run all over us.
:16:46. > :16:51.Last night, Barack Obama returned to the White House. Having promised
:16:51. > :16:56.to hold China to account for its trading practices, what's he going
:16:56. > :16:59.to do about it now? Those who have been inside the White House policy
:17:00. > :17:05.loop suggest it will be gentle diplomacy.
:17:05. > :17:08.There is a gap between political campaigning and governing. I think
:17:08. > :17:15.that some of the tough rhetoric that you heard in the campaign,
:17:15. > :17:21.will not translate into policy. I think Presidents do have an ability
:17:21. > :17:27.to use various tools to shape policy towards China and other
:17:27. > :17:32.countries. It is not just about trade. There
:17:32. > :17:36.are human rights and security concerns, and a worry flagged up by
:17:36. > :17:39.this Republican's campaign commercial. Your economy gets very
:17:39. > :17:44.weak. That China is buying up American debt, so it can be used as
:17:44. > :17:50.a source of pressure. US diplomats insist that they do
:17:50. > :17:54.still defend their national interests. Currency valuations have
:17:54. > :18:02.been a recurring theme during the campaign, and yet quietly. The
:18:02. > :18:06.United States has been effective in getting China to begin the process
:18:06. > :18:10.of balancing its currency versus the dollar in a fair manner. Are we
:18:10. > :18:20.where we want to be yet, no. Has there been progress on this front,
:18:20. > :18:36.
:18:36. > :18:39.That was back in 1841. That's how long Americans have been
:18:39. > :18:45.complaining about their terms of trade with China. These days,
:18:45. > :18:50.though, the public is much more engaged with the issue, and gun
:18:50. > :18:53.both diplomacy being out of the question, the -- gun boat diplomacy
:18:53. > :18:59.being out of the question, the President has to take the case to
:18:59. > :19:04.international bodies, like the world trade worgs. Nixon defined
:19:04. > :19:07.the modern relationship with China, at a time when it was still a
:19:07. > :19:10.peasant economy. That may have changed, but the perception that
:19:11. > :19:15.the relationship is too important to fail remains. You had a
:19:15. > :19:20.Republican President open up that relationship, back in 197 2. You
:19:20. > :19:25.had a Democratic President essentially formallise that
:19:25. > :19:27.relationship. Every President, Democrat or Republican since, has
:19:27. > :19:32.continued to advance the relationship between the United
:19:32. > :19:37.States and China. New issues today, new challenges today. We have never
:19:37. > :19:42.gone backward, we have gone forward. So, what to expect, a careful
:19:42. > :19:48.handling of a delicate relationship, for sure, but don't be surprised if,
:19:48. > :19:56.by 2016, America is even more indebted to China, significant
:19:56. > :20:02.trade issues unresolved, and the political ads still running.
:20:02. > :20:06.We will discuss all that, because we are having our first interview
:20:06. > :20:13.since President Obama has been re- elected, Nobel Peace Prize winner
:20:13. > :20:18.and former Secretary of State, and national security adviser, Henry
:20:18. > :20:22.Kissenger joining us. I understand you have met Xi Jinping, and
:20:22. > :20:25.probably more than once, what did you make of him? I have met him
:20:25. > :20:31.several times. And what did you make of him. We have heard from
:20:31. > :20:38.somebody who knows him well in Beijing, that he's a man that wants
:20:38. > :20:48.to "steady as you go", to make sure there is a seamless transition?
:20:48. > :20:50.
:20:50. > :20:56.impression was that he was thoughtful, perhaps more assertive
:20:56. > :21:04.personality than his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao. Shaped by a
:21:04. > :21:10.different set of experiences in which his experience during the
:21:10. > :21:18.Cultural Revolution plays an important role. Very contrary to
:21:18. > :21:22.the fact that he is stepping into a position at a period of enormous
:21:22. > :21:32.transformation that lies ahead for China. And to some extent, for the
:21:32. > :21:35.
:21:35. > :21:40.world. What do you think, domestically, is his biggest issue?
:21:40. > :21:50.His predecessor pointed out at the end of a ten-year period, that
:21:50. > :21:50.
:21:51. > :21:56.corruption is a key issue, and an extension of the definition of
:21:56. > :22:04.democracy, which has a different content in the Chinese context. As
:22:04. > :22:11.in the American or British one. But, nevertheless, involves a broadening
:22:11. > :22:15.of debates in some manner. Now, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney,
:22:15. > :22:20.had quite an aggressive stance towards China in the run up to the
:22:20. > :22:24.election. You might have heard our world affairs editor say that there
:22:24. > :22:31.is a feeling in China, that actually, Barack Obama might be
:22:31. > :22:41.able to be pushed around a little bit. What do you make of that?
:22:41. > :22:45.thought that, during the election, I called the arguments being made
:22:45. > :22:49.about China on both sides rather deplorable. They were geared
:22:49. > :22:54.entirely to the immediate, short- term American domestic politics,
:22:54. > :23:01.and were conducted in terms of immediate American situations,
:23:01. > :23:10.which were not always fully relevant to China. But I think that
:23:10. > :23:14.both Obama and Xi Jinping will now have to ask themselves how they
:23:14. > :23:21.expect the relationship between the two countries to evolve. Where they
:23:21. > :23:27.want to be at the end of say a five or ten-year period, and to what
:23:27. > :23:34.extent that relationship can be co- operative, and to what extent it
:23:34. > :23:40.will be adversarial. Both countries impinge on each other in
:23:40. > :23:47.significant ways. But both leaders and certainly the leaders I know on
:23:48. > :23:52.both sides, know that a military conflict between them would have an
:23:52. > :24:00.outcome comparable to World War I for Europe, in which there are no
:24:00. > :24:07.winners. So that is the fundamental challenge, that while each side
:24:07. > :24:14.under goes its domestic challenges, whether they can find the broader
:24:14. > :24:18.framework for their chino American relationship, and that can't be
:24:18. > :24:23.determined primarily in terms of the tactical disputes of the last
:24:23. > :24:28.few years. I was going to ask you, briefly, on
:24:28. > :24:38.what Hu Jintao said today? And the question is, can Obama be pushed
:24:38. > :24:38.
:24:38. > :24:44.around easily? I think that is, I don't think that is, in the light
:24:44. > :24:54.of his conduct this year. It is not a prospect, it is not a theory on
:24:54. > :24:57.
:24:57. > :25:00.which anybody should act. Hu Jintao talked today about managing local
:25:00. > :25:05.territorial battles. We have been talking in the film about the pivot
:25:05. > :25:12.and moving American capability into the area. Do you think China will
:25:12. > :25:19.push the luck, locally? -- its luck, locally? I support the military
:25:19. > :25:24.deployments of the Pivot. But I do not believe one should base the
:25:24. > :25:31.relationship between China and the United States primarily, or largely
:25:32. > :25:35.on the experience of the Cold War, of military confrontation. The
:25:35. > :25:44.historic experience of China has been threats from neighbouring
:25:44. > :25:49.countries. And so it is an understandable expression that Hu
:25:49. > :25:55.Jintao used to. But if the relationship were to degenerate
:25:55. > :26:00.into the management of local military situations, the future of
:26:00. > :26:08.the relationship would be very dire, and both sides, and I repeat, both
:26:08. > :26:13.sides, have an obligation to do their utmost to get the
:26:13. > :26:20.relationship on the basis of a dialogue, and a dialogue about the
:26:20. > :26:24.future, and not of the immediate issues that lead to these conflicts.
:26:24. > :26:28.Do stay with us, I'm going to bring other guests into the discussion
:26:28. > :26:37.now. To discuss this all further is the Chinese novelist and former
:26:37. > :26:44.business Professor Jan Weling. She now lives in London. Ian Bremmer is
:26:44. > :26:51.visiting the UK, but works in the United States, where he runs a
:26:51. > :27:01.global political research film. Daniel Bell is in Paris, who lives
:27:01. > :27:01.
:27:01. > :27:05.and lectures in Shanghai. How would you characterise the domestic
:27:05. > :27:08.challenges that Xi Jinping will face, will they be ones of free a
:27:08. > :27:12.democracy, more moving 400 million people from the country to the
:27:12. > :27:16.cities inment next ten years, or practical problems? I think he's
:27:17. > :27:23.facing a huge range of problems. That includes moving people from --
:27:23. > :27:29.cities in the text ten years? I he is facing a huge range of problems.
:27:29. > :27:32.That includes moving people from the cities. It includes
:27:32. > :27:36.redistribution of wealth, a whole range of issues and also the
:27:36. > :27:40.Internet. In his speech there is a piece about heightening security,
:27:41. > :27:50.and safety, on the Internet. It is a Conservative message. The
:27:50. > :27:53.positions of Jiang Zemin in the committee, did that surprise you?
:27:53. > :27:57.It did, and taken together with the tone of the speech, which is rather
:27:57. > :28:01.conservative, I wonder if it is an indication of the composition of
:28:01. > :28:05.the coming standing committee, which as we know will be the seven
:28:05. > :28:10.most important members, they will run the country. Ian Bremmer,
:28:10. > :28:16.what's your analysis of the make-up of the seven? I think we are
:28:16. > :28:21.talking about a very consensus- orientated, risk-averse group. They
:28:21. > :28:26.feel like the challenges domestically are growing, they know
:28:26. > :28:28.the challenges internationally are growing. They feel a greater
:28:28. > :28:33.adversarial relationship with the United States. Do you mean economic
:28:33. > :28:39.terms, or even in geopolitical terms and military terms? I would
:28:39. > :28:45.argue that the geopolitics are increasingly driven by economics. I
:28:45. > :28:48.agree with Dr Kissenger that nobody wants a war, but they are at war on
:28:49. > :28:52.the cyberfront every single day. That will get wore, there have been
:28:52. > :28:56.blocks of telecoms companies working in America? That will get
:28:56. > :29:01.worse. When you think about how China is an adversary to America
:29:01. > :29:05.and the threat, it is not on the military side. Where America
:29:05. > :29:08.outspends the next ten economies in the world together on the military.
:29:08. > :29:11.China will be the largest economy in the world. And American
:29:11. > :29:18.companies increasingly think they don't have access, they are losing
:29:18. > :29:22.out to state-owned enterprises. Daniel Bell, from your position in
:29:22. > :29:26.Paris, do you think America and the west needs to exercise a little bit
:29:26. > :29:29.of humility when it comes to China. We heard a lot of saber-rattling
:29:29. > :29:32.during the presidential campaign, do you think there needs to be a
:29:32. > :29:37.recalibration of even the atmosphere between the two?
:29:37. > :29:44.would help if the US and other western countries recognised that
:29:44. > :29:48.there is an alternative model. We can call it the China model. Which
:29:48. > :29:52.is meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, and lots
:29:52. > :29:55.of ways of looking at it inbetween. China is not that corrupt when you
:29:55. > :30:01.compare it to countries at a similar level of economic
:30:01. > :30:06.development. But why is it a big issue? Because the political
:30:06. > :30:10.leaders derive legitimately from being seen as meritocratically
:30:10. > :30:14.selected, they have merit and virtue, and if they are seen to
:30:14. > :30:19.have virtue, that goes to the core of the regime, that is why they
:30:19. > :30:23.have to tackle corruption in a way that countries like India doesn't
:30:23. > :30:27.have to. Isn't one of the major problems in China is the elite, as
:30:27. > :30:31.you say, has merit, they have ten years to do their best for the
:30:31. > :30:35.country. But the problem is, the lower ranks of the official, the
:30:35. > :30:41.corruption that run all the way down the food chain that makes
:30:41. > :30:44.people so furious? That's true, but the lower level officials also
:30:44. > :30:50.derive legitimacy from being democratically chosen in local
:30:50. > :30:53.level elections. The top-level leaders derive much, if not all
:30:53. > :30:56.their legitimacy as being meritocratically selected, it is a
:30:56. > :31:02.more serious problem if the top leaders are seen as corrupt rather
:31:02. > :31:06.than the lower leaders as corrupt. We heard that Hu Jintao had ten
:31:06. > :31:11.years to sort it out and didn't. Is the frustration of the people going
:31:11. > :31:17.to become even greater now? Absolutely. And I think, this is
:31:17. > :31:21.what we are talking about, a system which theself produce the kind of
:31:21. > :31:25.corruption, and the elite, as we know, and they control a lot of
:31:25. > :31:29.wealth. Because for a long time you could not do any business, without
:31:29. > :31:34.having a member of the elite to be on your board, et cetera. And this
:31:34. > :31:39.has become a major issue as we see in the Internet, in the
:31:39. > :31:43.demonstrations. Dr Kissenger, do you think this might be the new
:31:43. > :31:48.regime's Achilles heel, that this clamour for corruption and social
:31:48. > :31:57.change, not necessarily western- style democracy, but social change
:31:57. > :32:02.will really eat in to the power and authority of this decade's regime?
:32:02. > :32:10.May I say two things. I don't think it is correct to talk about Xi
:32:10. > :32:17.Jinping as if he has absolute control. Decisions are made by a
:32:17. > :32:24.kind of consensus of the standing committee of the politic bureau,
:32:24. > :32:29.the number is either seven or nine. So it's in the personal freedom of
:32:29. > :32:38.manoeuvre, of which he is chairman and the most influential member.
:32:38. > :32:45.But his personal freedom is not the same as that of Mao or others.
:32:45. > :32:52.I do believe the -- Yes I do believe the issue of corruption has
:32:52. > :33:00.been also stated by the Chinese as the, in many ways, the deepest
:33:00. > :33:06.challenge of the regime. But, then, that will involve such a wide range
:33:06. > :33:12.of personalities, that the management of the improvement of it,
:33:12. > :33:17.will require enormous kill. This is why I don't believe that foreign
:33:17. > :33:21.adventures will be the dominant theme or a conceivable theme of
:33:21. > :33:24.Chinese foreign policy. Do you agree with that, Ian Bremmer?
:33:24. > :33:28.don't think they want foreign adventure, you about I do think the
:33:28. > :33:33.necessity of continued Chinese growth means that their actual
:33:33. > :33:36.footprint on the ground in countries around the world, in
:33:36. > :33:41.Africa, Brazil, Africa, across south-east Asia, will be perceived
:33:41. > :33:45.as a challenge, as a threat, by many local actor. Furthermore, the
:33:45. > :33:52.most important US ally in the region is Japan. Japanese companies
:33:52. > :33:55.have made big bets on China, those CEOs all think they may have made
:33:55. > :33:58.mistake now. You have potential conflict in the east China sea
:33:58. > :34:02.between Japan and China. The Japanese aren't defending
:34:02. > :34:05.themselves, the Americans are. If this gets worse, and the Chinese
:34:05. > :34:09.absolutely have been pushing that over the last couple of months, the
:34:09. > :34:15.United States are engaged in a conflict they would much rather
:34:15. > :34:19.steer clear of. How could they be engaged in a conflict when they are
:34:19. > :34:23.intimately linked checkically, there are people doing deals 365
:34:23. > :34:29.days a clear. Each is the other's greatest export market, and you
:34:29. > :34:34.have a stand off over Japan? you do. At the same time that the
:34:34. > :34:38.United States has its greatest external debt holder, China, you
:34:38. > :34:43.also have a cyberwar between the two countries. We are not friends
:34:43. > :34:49.any more. Obama called us adversaries in the third debate,
:34:49. > :34:51.but we are frenemies, you can have conflict at the same time as other
:34:51. > :34:55.things. That is what makes it dangerous.
:34:55. > :35:00.The Prime Minister warned against a witch-hunt against gay people when
:35:00. > :35:06.he was ambushed on daytime television with a list of alleged
:35:06. > :35:10.child abusers, kol located from the Internet. A Tory MP writes to Ofcom
:35:10. > :35:14.asking for an investigation into whether the programme had breached
:35:14. > :35:19.the code. In the interview David Cameron didn't rule out a
:35:19. > :35:25.megainquiry into child abuse scandals in the future, triggered
:35:25. > :35:29.against allegation against Jimmy Savile and the North West
:35:29. > :35:34.children's homes. Twitter a legitimate forum for allegations or
:35:34. > :35:38.is it, as David Cameron suggests, a witch-hunt. Appearing on daytime
:35:38. > :35:43.television, the Prime Minister was questioned about child sex abuse
:35:43. > :35:48.allegation, against so far unnamed senior figures in his party. And,
:35:48. > :35:51.confronted by the presenters' trawling of the internet. It is a
:35:51. > :35:56.momentary cursory glance at the internet, it took me about three
:35:56. > :36:00.minutes last night to continually find a list of the same names. I
:36:00. > :36:04.have those names there. Those are the names on a piecep paper, you
:36:04. > :36:08.know the names on that -- on a piece of paper, you know the names
:36:08. > :36:12.on that piece of paper, will you be speaking to those people. What is
:36:12. > :36:15.really important, there is a danger if we are not careful, that this
:36:15. > :36:18.could turn into a witch-hunt, particularly against people who are
:36:18. > :36:22.gay. And I'm worried about the sort of thing you are doing right now,
:36:22. > :36:26.giving me a list of name that you have taken off the Internet. As I
:36:26. > :36:29.say, if anyone has any information about anyone who is a paedophile,
:36:29. > :36:33.no matter how high up in British society they are, that is what the
:36:33. > :36:36.police are for. Broadcaster, including the BBC, have been
:36:36. > :36:43.blurring these shot, because some of the names could have been
:36:43. > :36:47.ledgable when this was first shown live.
:36:47. > :36:52.-- legible when this was first shown live. Some were confused by
:36:52. > :36:56.the Prime Minister's words, why say a witch-hunt gains gay people. It
:36:56. > :37:00.seems he was angry, that some politicians whose sexuality has
:37:00. > :37:04.been the subject of gossip for decades, were being linked without
:37:04. > :37:09.any evidence to serious criminal offences, child abuse. This all
:37:09. > :37:12.comes after an investigation on Newsnight last week. A man who said
:37:12. > :37:17.he had suffered abuse at this former children's home in North
:37:17. > :37:22.Wales, in the 1970, claimed that his abusers included a Conservative
:37:22. > :37:27.Party figure of the day. The alleged abuser's identity was
:37:27. > :37:32.not revealed on the programme. Since then, speculation has raged
:37:32. > :37:37.on on-line sites, where users seem untroubled by libel laws and other
:37:37. > :37:42.restrictions that apply to the mainstream media. Earlier this week,
:37:42. > :37:48.the Home Secretary announced an inquiry into abuse in North Wales
:37:48. > :37:51.children's homes. Last Friday, a victim of sexual abuse in one of
:37:51. > :37:55.the homes named in the report, Steve Messham, alleged that the
:37:55. > :37:57.inquiry didn't look at abuse outside the care homes renewed
:37:58. > :38:02.allegations against the police and several individual. The Government
:38:02. > :38:06.is treating these allegations with the utmost seriousness. Some
:38:06. > :38:10.observers question the value of this new inquiry. And suggested
:38:10. > :38:14.that ministers themselves had been caught up in an atmosphere of
:38:14. > :38:16.witch-hunt. I would ask that question, what is the point? But I
:38:16. > :38:19.feel there is some political impetuous behind this, I feel
:38:19. > :38:23.politicians feel they have to do something. I would simply question
:38:24. > :38:28.whether those resources are best put into another child protection
:38:28. > :38:33.issue, rather than something like this, which has, in fact, been
:38:33. > :38:37.investigated. Back in 2000, the now defunct News of the World, was
:38:37. > :38:43.criticised after it ran a campaign of naming and shaming alleged
:38:43. > :38:49.paedophile. There were marches, as here, and in Wales, the angry crowd
:38:49. > :38:57.attacked the home of a blameless paediatrician. Kuryosty over the
:38:57. > :39:02.identity of latest sex -- Newsnight began an investigation into the DJ,
:39:02. > :39:07.Jimmy Savile, last year, but did not complete it. Tonight Philip
:39:07. > :39:17.Schofield said he apologised if viewers were able to identify
:39:17. > :39:19.
:39:19. > :39:24.anybody on the list he hand today Mr Cameron.
:39:24. > :39:29.The Prime Minister's spokesman was asked if Mr Cameron felt stitched
:39:29. > :39:34.up by the programme. He replied bandying names around in public
:39:34. > :39:37.could have an effect on the future of any prosecutions, they said Mr
:39:37. > :39:41.Cameron didn't believe in trial by Twitter.
:39:41. > :39:45.While we have been on air the Guardian has published new details
:39:45. > :39:50.about the North Wales child abuse story. What has happened? As I was
:39:50. > :39:55.eluding to in the package, last Friday on the programme, a victim
:39:55. > :40:01.of the abuse, Steve Messham, said he had been repeatedly abused by a
:40:01. > :40:05.politician of the Thatcher era. Tonight, the Guardian is naming
:40:05. > :40:09.that person, not the political figure, they say, but somebody else.
:40:09. > :40:15.They say the attacks may have been carried out by another member of
:40:15. > :40:21.the same family, bearing the same surname. They have maimed that
:40:21. > :40:27.person. This family member has since died though. In 2000, the
:40:27. > :40:31.Watt Report, set up -- Waterhouse Report, set up to investigate the
:40:31. > :40:38.abuse claims, concluded that the evidence about that attacker was
:40:38. > :40:48.inconclusive. We have our guests with us.
:40:48. > :40:48.
:40:48. > :40:55.First of all, do you think like David Cameron that this is in
:40:55. > :41:00.danger of turning into a witch-hunt, David Aaronovitch? It already is,
:41:00. > :41:03.we can't name people we already discover or not to be accused. One
:41:03. > :41:10.of the parts of the allegations against him, which I heard
:41:10. > :41:19.broadcast, was he was cottageing, back in the days when that was an
:41:19. > :41:23.illegal activity and so on. If David Cameron had that in his mind.
:41:23. > :41:28.What is going on now is not the interests of victims of child abuse,
:41:28. > :41:31.or getting at the truth. We have, in the old kind of phrase, we
:41:31. > :41:34.jumped the shark here. We what we saw from Philip Schofield earlier
:41:34. > :41:39.was probably one of the most disgraceful things I have seen on
:41:39. > :41:44.television. I can't think what the justification for doing something
:41:44. > :41:48.like that would be. Pete Saunders, there is legitimate inquiries over
:41:48. > :41:52.child abuse claims going back many years, we know some are outstanding
:41:53. > :41:58.and some have never been resolved? Absolutely, I do agree with David
:41:58. > :42:02.that the antics of that programme This Morning, presenting something
:42:02. > :42:07.to David Cameron in the way they did, was extremely unhelpful in
:42:07. > :42:10.terms of the wider issue. Which is that, according to the NSPCC, and I
:42:11. > :42:15.don't doubt their figure, one in four children in this country is
:42:15. > :42:20.abused every year. We are talking about an epidemic. Do you agree
:42:20. > :42:23.with David Cameron, that it is, and can be characterised as a witch-
:42:23. > :42:28.hunt, particularly against gay politicians? I wouldn't agree with
:42:28. > :42:31.him. Because I think once you introduce the term "witch-hunt", it
:42:31. > :42:36.then starts to detract from the issue. We are starting to get away
:42:36. > :42:38.from the issue, which is about protecting children, and
:42:38. > :42:43.prosecuting abusers, when they can be apprehended. Anything that gets
:42:43. > :42:46.in the way of that, is very unhelpful. We hear from thousand of
:42:46. > :42:50.abuse survivors every week, not connected with politicians or
:42:50. > :42:55.celebrities and so on. But it is mostly family stuff. Do you think
:42:55. > :42:59.it might put off some children from coming forward, even the word
:42:59. > :43:03."witch-hunt", I don't think it probably will. I think it is
:43:03. > :43:09.unhelpful language. Mark Lewis, a lot of the stuff is
:43:09. > :43:15.coming out on Twitter. Twitter is unregulated. What do you make of
:43:15. > :43:21.allegations that, of course, unsubstantiated on Twitter, being
:43:21. > :43:26.given credence? We have a problem with the Internet, not just with
:43:26. > :43:31.Twitter, it is publication taking part out of the jurisdiction.
:43:32. > :43:35.Lawyers find it hard to stop what might be being said. Abroad we have
:43:35. > :43:40.no global recognition of how to stop these things. It is dangerous,
:43:40. > :43:44.it is very rare, I suppose, for all panellists to agree there is the
:43:45. > :43:48.same problem. It is neither helpful for the children, or the people
:43:48. > :43:52.wrongly accused. You have Facebook, Twitter and blogs, it seems the law
:43:52. > :43:55.is running so far behind to catch up? I think we have to be careful
:43:55. > :44:00.here. Think the one way in which the Government has made a rod for
:44:00. > :44:05.the own back, was when it saw the allegations coming, and when it saw
:44:05. > :44:09.what happened to the BBC over Jimmy Savile, they thought they would
:44:09. > :44:13.throw an inquiry at it. There isn't any evidence, that I have seen, and
:44:13. > :44:19.that includes the item that you showed last week, that actually
:44:19. > :44:22.Waterhouse needs a reinquiry. Where as, this is point that Pete is
:44:23. > :44:27.making, every day we know there is a significant amount of abuse going
:44:27. > :44:30.on that we need to devote some time to. There are things like the
:44:30. > :44:34.Savile situations that haven't been inquired into. The one place we
:44:34. > :44:38.don't need an inquiry into is North Wales. On the question of Twitter,
:44:38. > :44:42.how do you police twittwit, how do you make sure people aren't --
:44:42. > :44:46.Twitter, how do you make sure people aren't being wrongful low
:44:47. > :44:51.accused on Twitter, that finds a legitimacy that is illegitimate?
:44:51. > :44:57.know that people who named a rape victim were actually fined as a
:44:57. > :45:00.result of mentioning it, �600. It is possible, in limited
:45:00. > :45:05.circumstances, by and large we have to accept that we are not going to.
:45:05. > :45:13.What we have to say to people is don't trust what you read on
:45:13. > :45:18.Twitter, it is just gossip. Forget about it. Do kids know about this,
:45:18. > :45:24.let's be Hon he, how hard is that to get across? Kids are smarter
:45:24. > :45:28.than we are giving, or not giving them credit for. I'm talking about
:45:28. > :45:32.under-12s? Sure, but I do think there is a silver lining to this
:45:32. > :45:36.whole discussion, and to these revelation, as dreadful as they are.
:45:36. > :45:40.That is that I genuinely think our children will be safer in the
:45:40. > :45:45.future, because, at long last, the public consciousness is beginning
:45:45. > :45:48.to get a grip as to what child abuse is really all about, the true
:45:48. > :45:53.extent of it, and the fact that survivors need to be listened to,
:45:53. > :45:57.and we need to take action against abusers when they are apprehended.
:45:57. > :46:01.Legally what can we do? Do you think the Twitter, do you think the
:46:01. > :46:06.Twitter problem is unpolicable? There are two issues here. There is
:46:07. > :46:15.a child abuse issue, which is separate from the issue of Twitter,
:46:15. > :46:21.more about social media, which is proving to be uncontrollable. Lord
:46:21. > :46:26.lef -- Leveson says time and time again, what about the social media,
:46:26. > :46:30.it is not just the printed media a problem, but the Internet. While
:46:30. > :46:35.you say this is just gossip and warnings can be given. It is gossip
:46:35. > :46:39.that can magnify so many times over that people all hear. It gains
:46:39. > :46:44.credit because of that. The danger is, and I don't want to be hyping
:46:44. > :46:50.this up, but the danger is, if somebody is repeatedly named, they
:46:50. > :46:54.could come under attack? Can I say one thing, a lot of this hasn't
:46:54. > :46:58.been fed by Twitter, but people talking about it in the House of
:46:58. > :47:02.Commons. There have been accusations of rape in Whitehall by
:47:02. > :47:06.an MP. He has said there is a former cabinet minister, he says it
:47:06. > :47:09.reaches up to Number Ten, talked about a network of powerful
:47:09. > :47:14.paedophile, stuck it out. There it is hardly surprising. I have no
:47:14. > :47:16.idea what his evidence is. Looking at his blog I'm extremely worried
:47:17. > :47:21.about the basis on which this discussion is happening. People
:47:21. > :47:26.have to be more responsible. That starts at the top, not the bottom.
:47:27. > :47:31.I think it would also be, unwise, to not accept that abuse does exist
:47:31. > :47:35.in every strata of society. Whether the top or the bottom and
:47:35. > :47:39.everywhere inbetween. Let's not dismiss things too much out of hand,
:47:39. > :47:44.sometimes there is smoke where there is fire. Thank you all very
:47:44. > :47:54.much indeed. That's all we have time for tonight. Join us the same
:47:54. > :47:55.
:47:55. > :48:01.time tomorrow night. Hello there, band of rain in
:48:01. > :48:04.Northern Ireland and Scotland, that will push southwards. Towards the
:48:04. > :48:07.south-east generally fine and cloudy. After the rain sunshine and
:48:07. > :48:11.showers for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The wettest weather
:48:11. > :48:15.probably going to be during the day in the North West of England. Not
:48:15. > :48:19.rain in the Pennine, sheltered. Through the south-east of England.
:48:19. > :48:24.Not great deal of sunshine. Not much rain either. A few drizzley
:48:24. > :48:31.showers possible, quite a lot of cloud. The I'm A Rainbowband
:48:31. > :48:36.arrives in the south west quite late in the day -- the rainband
:48:36. > :48:40.arrives in south-west Wales quite late in the day. Not a bad-looking
:48:40. > :48:44.day for Northern Ireland, after the overnight rain, sunshine, not many
:48:44. > :48:48.showers, a cooler feel across the country. Certainly feeling colder
:48:48. > :48:53.in Scotland. We will see most of the showers in the North West. Some
:48:53. > :49:00.heavy with rain and thunder. Snow over the Scottish mountains,
:49:00. > :49:03.generally fine and dry in Edinburgh, cold on Saturday. Looking elsewhere,
:49:03. > :49:07.we have the rain in Cardiff, arriving late in the day in