:00:14. > :00:18.Lunchtime tomorrow is the time for bad news. In the annual assessment
:00:18. > :00:21.of the state of the economy, we shall learn how badly mangled the
:00:21. > :00:26.Government as policies have been, by their head-on collision with
:00:26. > :00:29.reality. It doesn't look good. Losing Britain's triple-A rate
:00:29. > :00:33.something politically almost suicide, having your banks go bust
:00:33. > :00:37.is almost political suicide. Slashing the welfare budget by
:00:37. > :00:41.taking out the pensions political suicide, everything is bad for the
:00:41. > :00:45.Chancellor at this stage. Is it time the Chancellor of the
:00:45. > :00:49.Exchequer stopped pretending he has any control over events?
:00:49. > :00:53.How the imprisonment, torture and death of this man have spurred the
:00:53. > :00:57.US Congress into a crackdown on Russia.
:00:57. > :01:02.Hundreds of Russian officials are set to be banned from entering the
:01:02. > :01:06.United States, and have any assets there frozen. A similar law may
:01:06. > :01:11.soon be coming to Britain. As NATO decides to send anti-
:01:11. > :01:16.missile defences to the Turkish- Syria border, is Damascus really
:01:16. > :01:23.preparing to use chemical weapons. How sensible shoes took over
:01:23. > :01:29.Jamacia. From the number one station, here comes UhUhUh, whether
:01:29. > :01:39.you wrong or right, you gotta listen to Newsnight. Don't get the
:01:39. > :01:39.
:01:39. > :01:43.blues, it is all about the shoes. The Government was busily getting
:01:43. > :01:46.its reaction in first today, before George Osborne stands up in the
:01:46. > :01:50.House of Commons tomorrow, and tells us all what a terrible state
:01:50. > :01:53.the economy and the public finances are in. So, tomorrow morning's
:01:53. > :01:57.papers will report �5 billion of our money being spent on schools,
:01:57. > :02:01.transport, science and so on. But come lunchtime, Mr Osborne will
:02:01. > :02:05.have to come clean. In his Autumn Statement, he will have to give us
:02:05. > :02:08.the rest of the picture. Paul Mason is here with the full bucketload of
:02:08. > :02:11.gloom. What are you expecting him to say?
:02:11. > :02:21.Two years ago the Chancellor did put the lid on what could have been
:02:21. > :02:21.
:02:21. > :02:25.quite a bad position for the UK, an insipient debt crisis in Europe and
:02:25. > :02:31.everyone else getting dragged into it, by laying out two targets, the
:02:31. > :02:35.debt and the deficit, one is the long-term loan and the other is the
:02:35. > :02:40.debts. They said they would wipe out the deficit in five years and
:02:40. > :02:43.get the debt rolling by the end of parliament. We will find out
:02:43. > :02:46.tomorrow that he will miss both targets, it is highly unlikely he
:02:46. > :02:50.will hit either of them. That is not the end of the world -- you
:02:50. > :02:53.could, under normal circumstances say, and he has done it before, we
:02:53. > :02:57.will do more austerity. This time last year they said more austerity,
:02:57. > :03:02.and it will last longer. This �5 billion announcement today is a
:03:02. > :03:06.straw in the wind that says they will not do that. They could have
:03:06. > :03:09.send said departments find �5 billion to wipe out the debt and
:03:09. > :03:13.deficit, instead they are using it to spend. If there was a letter
:03:13. > :03:20.between A and B, we would be on plan, whatever that letter of. This
:03:21. > :03:26.is not Plan A any more. What about plan K or L or M?,
:03:26. > :03:29.can't go on doing austerity forever. That is what they are effectively
:03:29. > :03:35.recognising. There comes a point when the markets say they don't
:03:35. > :03:38.believe you? In the moment they are in disbelief mode, even the Germans
:03:38. > :03:42.were rumoured to be seeing a downgrading of their credit status,
:03:42. > :03:46.it didn't happen. All the European instruments reflecting the state of
:03:46. > :03:52.the European economy are being downgraded. We have had triple-A
:03:52. > :03:54.rating t says our debt is 100% solid. Even if you lost it, the
:03:55. > :03:58.consensus is it wouldn't be the end of the world, because everyone else
:03:58. > :04:02.is losing their's. The problem comes when people look at the ways
:04:02. > :04:06.out, they say there is no growth, the austerity is at the end, you
:04:06. > :04:09.can't politically do any more what do you do? Historically we know
:04:09. > :04:19.what Governments do, they wipe out the debt by allowing inflation.
:04:19. > :04:23.
:04:23. > :04:27.This is the concern of some of the investors I have been speaking. To
:04:27. > :04:32.When you stand in the City of London and look around, you see
:04:32. > :04:36.messages about greatness, stability, a global economy built on
:04:36. > :04:40.reputation. In times of great stress, goes the message, we
:04:40. > :04:44.produce great men, philanthropists, builders, leaders.
:04:44. > :04:48.It is clearly taking longer to deal with Britain's debts. It is clearly
:04:48. > :04:54.taking longer to recover from the financial crisis than anyone would
:04:54. > :04:58.have hoped. But we have made real progress.
:04:58. > :05:02.But how much longer? On the answer to that hangs the possibility of
:05:02. > :05:07.huge budget cuts, lasting well into the next parliament.
:05:07. > :05:12.The idea of Britain, as a triple-A nation, whose debt is always under
:05:12. > :05:16.control, whose money is always good, is ingrained into the very fabric
:05:16. > :05:20.of this country. But tomorrow we could find out we are just like
:05:20. > :05:25.everywhere else, that our fiscal promises are equally capable of
:05:25. > :05:29.being broken. It is all about growth, this is
:05:29. > :05:34.what they thought receipt coverry would look like two years ago, and
:05:34. > :05:38.this is the reality. Way lower. And the forecast made last March says
:05:38. > :05:44.it will take three more years to get back on track. Tomorrow, there
:05:44. > :05:49.is a new forecast. The experts say it will be lower still. That means
:05:49. > :05:54.the Chancellor could miss his targets for getting the debt and
:05:54. > :05:58.deficit down, putting Britain's triple-A rating at risk.
:05:58. > :06:03.triple-A rating will matter a lot, both because it is part of
:06:03. > :06:07.Britain's international repcation as major financial centre. It --
:06:07. > :06:11.reputation as a major financial centre, but also George Osborne's
:06:11. > :06:15.reputation, he said that is how we should measure his performance as a
:06:15. > :06:20.Chancellor, the triple-A rating. If it goes that is a huge blow to him.
:06:20. > :06:24.What are the chances of it going? They are pretty high.
:06:24. > :06:29.David Cameron ordered Whitehall to make 1% extra cuts to fund a new �5
:06:29. > :06:33.billion investment fund in schools and infrastructure. We are very
:06:33. > :06:39.excited and surprised to be able to ask the leader of our country some
:06:39. > :06:43.questions. The questions beyond this London school room are obvious,
:06:43. > :06:45.is it realistic to go on pruning away at small, departmental
:06:45. > :06:48.budgets? It is very realistic, because Government departments
:06:48. > :06:53.aren't actually spending up to their budgets. So I think we can
:06:53. > :06:56.say to them, you have to cut back some spending, including some
:06:56. > :06:59.unnecessary spending, let's put that money into things that will
:06:59. > :07:03.make a difference in our country and our economy.
:07:03. > :07:07.But, when it comes to the tens of billions they will need to balance
:07:07. > :07:12.the book, there is a bigger choice that could affect all of us. Slash
:07:12. > :07:16.spending on welfare, or cut the budgets of the very departments
:07:17. > :07:20.protected today. The right thing to do is to take off the ring-fence of
:07:20. > :07:24.health and education. If you were to cut health and education
:07:24. > :07:30.spending by the average 17.5% spending reduction that is were
:07:30. > :07:35.imposed on other departments, that would get you about �25 billion.
:07:35. > :07:40.would be politically suicidal? Absolutely there aren't any
:07:40. > :07:43.politically happy ways forward here. Losing Britain's triple-A rating is
:07:43. > :07:46.political sued side, slashing the welfare budget by taking out the
:07:46. > :07:50.pensions is political suicide, everything is bad for the
:07:50. > :07:56.Chancellor at this stage. Government looks set to spend �680
:07:56. > :07:59.billion this year. If you are going to cut hard there are only a few
:07:59. > :08:02.big budgets you can cut from. Welfare is the biggest, health and
:08:02. > :08:07.social care just behind, then education, the rest is small
:08:08. > :08:11.compared to that. But for savers, and that includes
:08:11. > :08:15.everybody with a company pension, or saving for a house, tomorrow's
:08:15. > :08:20.figures raise a different kind of worry. That, if it can't cut, or
:08:20. > :08:25.grow its way out of the debt, the Government might be tempted to
:08:25. > :08:29.sneakly inflate its way out. If investors think the Government is
:08:29. > :08:32.prepared to let inflation eat away at the value of the debt, there is
:08:32. > :08:38.an obvious danger. What do investors worry about this when
:08:38. > :08:42.they see this level of debt? readers worried about financial
:08:42. > :08:46.repression, that is when you keep interest rates lower than the rate
:08:46. > :08:50.of inflation. That destroys the value of savings and investments,
:08:50. > :08:54.it is the most politically expedient way to escape from huge
:08:54. > :08:57.debts. If investors think the Government's prepared to let
:08:57. > :09:01.inflation eat away at the value of the debt, there is an obvious
:09:01. > :09:06.danger. The big danger for Britain is that people realise that is the
:09:06. > :09:11.only way out, and we get either a gilt market strike, or a currency
:09:11. > :09:16.collapse as a result. Two years ago, the City applauded
:09:16. > :09:20.as cuts and tax rises, and said the worries of the markets over the
:09:21. > :09:24.debt. And now, the Chancellor is out on a limb.
:09:24. > :09:28.Autumn Statements used to be about a few hundred million here or there.
:09:28. > :09:32.Tomorrow will be about how big a hit the economy has taken, and, how
:09:32. > :09:38.big a hit there has been to the Chancellor's reputation too.
:09:38. > :09:42.It was, afterall, the Conservative manifesto, in 2010, which promised
:09:42. > :09:45.we will safeguard Britain's credit rating with a credible plan to
:09:45. > :09:52.eliminate the bulk of the structural deficit over a
:09:52. > :09:56.parliament. Well, the credit rating is far from
:09:56. > :10:00.safeguarded, the promise of eliminating the deficit by 2015,
:10:00. > :10:07.has evaporated. We will find out the hard facts about debt and
:10:07. > :10:14.deficit tomorrow. With us now are Elissa Bayer, the
:10:15. > :10:19.senior -- a senior invest director, and Clare McNeil from the Institute
:10:19. > :10:22.for Public Policy Research, and Gillian Tett, azestant editor of
:10:22. > :10:28.the Financial Times. How -- Assistant editor of the Financial
:10:28. > :10:31.Times. How big a deal is this tomorrow? It is a huge deal. It has
:10:31. > :10:35.only got worse with macro-economic situations, the Chancellor faces
:10:35. > :10:41.two nasty Balancing acts. He has to some how persuade the market that
:10:41. > :10:45.he's not increasing austerity, and but also not going overboard. He
:10:45. > :10:48.has to walk a tight rope. At the same time he has to persuade the
:10:48. > :10:52.population what he's doing is fair, and get people to buy into it. That
:10:52. > :10:55.is like parent with two custard creams trying to divide it between
:10:55. > :11:02.three kids, whatever happens everyone will complain. Or everyone
:11:02. > :11:07.gets a few crumbs, perhaps? Exactly. Supposing that we were to lose our
:11:07. > :11:11.triple-A rating, as was alluded to there a couple of times. How big a
:11:11. > :11:16.deal would that be? I think for the last year or so we have lived with
:11:16. > :11:19.smoke and mirrors, do we really have a triple-A meeting, even worse
:11:19. > :11:25.than that of the United States, who won't talk about the subject. That
:11:25. > :11:29.is a certain. But, Gillian and I were looking, I look after private
:11:29. > :11:32.investors, can we touch Government stocks at the moment, the prices
:11:32. > :11:35.are inflated beyond belief, if you hold them all you will do is lose
:11:36. > :11:40.money. The markets are saying there is a query on the status, even
:11:40. > :11:44.though it hasn't been altered. Would it matter if we lost the
:11:44. > :11:49.triple-A status? It matters for our borrowing, yes it doeser ma. It is
:11:49. > :11:53.all about status, they don't want to lose it. But if you look at the
:11:53. > :11:58.countries downgraded, we're not too far off, in some respects. We are
:11:58. > :12:03.in the same boat, most of us? the boat isn't happy. To be cynical,
:12:03. > :12:08.if there was every a good moment to lose your credit rating, it is now.
:12:08. > :12:12.A lot of Europe is in deep problems. The US is engulfed in this huge
:12:12. > :12:17.great debate about whether it can get some budget deal before going
:12:17. > :12:21.over the fiscal cliff and has a crisis in two weeks time. Investors
:12:21. > :12:25.aren't necessarily going to be able to rush out and find another safe
:12:25. > :12:29.haven if they lose faith in the UK. It will be painful, but it is as
:12:29. > :12:32.good a time as possible to have the problem. This pledge that George
:12:32. > :12:38.Osborne made, we are all in this together, it doesn't look like that
:12:38. > :12:43.any longer? It doesn't, we know at the moment that the burden that's
:12:43. > :12:46.being placed on low-to-middle- income families is very high. Most
:12:46. > :12:50.of the cuts are from public services, welfare cuts, rather than
:12:50. > :12:54.from tax rises. We know that those on the lowest incomes use public
:12:54. > :12:57.services more, and they tend to rely on welfare more. So at the
:12:57. > :13:04.moment it seems the poorest, in some ways, are shouldering the
:13:04. > :13:08.majority of the burden here. rather agree? I completely agree, I
:13:08. > :13:11.know a lot about a community up in Liverpool, who are seeing some
:13:12. > :13:15.potentially horrible cuts down the road. There is already high levels
:13:15. > :13:17.of unemployment, people really rely on public services there. To take a
:13:17. > :13:21.small example, these days the Government is putting more and more
:13:21. > :13:25.of the services on-line t assumes everyone has internet, up there, in
:13:25. > :13:28.this part of Liverpool, they don't. The library has just been shut,
:13:28. > :13:31.which provided the Internet access. That is the on the ground detail,
:13:31. > :13:37.where people are really suffering, and where tomorrow's budget will
:13:37. > :13:41.just add to the squeeze, as Claire says. You say carry on letting the
:13:41. > :13:43.debt mount? You need to take a sensible approach to deficit
:13:43. > :13:46.reduction, we think when the economy is weak as it is at the
:13:46. > :13:49.moment, slow down the pace, and speed up once the economy is
:13:49. > :13:52.stronger. You can think about how you can introduce policies that
:13:52. > :13:56.will boost the economy, at the same time as supporting families. So
:13:56. > :14:00.childcare, for example, you know, raising the female employment rate
:14:00. > :14:03.would obviously positive in improving our tax base, we need to
:14:03. > :14:07.think more about those kinds of policies. If the Chancellor were to
:14:07. > :14:10.listen to that sort of counsel, to pay heed to the social damage that
:14:10. > :14:14.sounds as if it is being done by cuts that have already been made,
:14:15. > :14:18.and will be made. What would be the consequence, as far as somebody
:14:18. > :14:21.like you, looking at the economy, is concerned? I think the other
:14:21. > :14:24.thing, the more you do this, the worse it is getting. We are not
:14:24. > :14:28.very far down the line. That is the other problem, it will get worse.
:14:28. > :14:31.That is another thing that makes it more and more unattractive. But I
:14:31. > :14:34.suppose, our side, we look after people who, I think, have saved,
:14:35. > :14:38.who have made effort, who have been prudent. He's looking at that all
:14:38. > :14:41.the time. He's trying to reduce what they have got. I'm seeing more
:14:41. > :14:46.and more clients give more money to their children, and the children
:14:46. > :14:50.are in their 50s. It is just a spiral at the moment. I can't see
:14:50. > :14:53.inheritance tax to be much of a problem, they won't have it to pay.
:14:53. > :14:58.It is hitting the middle all time. You are not serving the lower,
:14:58. > :15:01.because they haven't got it t and you are attacking the middle.
:15:01. > :15:05.Presumably these people who have savings are damaged once inflation
:15:05. > :15:08.gets going, that is another suggestion, you kind of relax
:15:08. > :15:13.inflation targets, and the debt starts to go away, gradually?
:15:13. > :15:16.and deposit rates will not go up any time, are they? What is
:15:16. > :15:22.desperately needed is somebody who can actually rally the country
:15:22. > :15:26.round some common vision, and almost invoke that Churchillian,
:15:26. > :15:32.blitz spirit that we are all in it together? That is what they claim
:15:32. > :15:37.to be doing? They claim, but it is three years. You can pull that
:15:37. > :15:39.rallying cry once or twice, when you have a clear-cut enemy, right
:15:39. > :15:43.now people are worried about how long it will last and who is
:15:43. > :15:46.responsible for this, and is the pain being shared out fairly, and
:15:46. > :15:48.do people still have enough incentive to buy into the kind of
:15:48. > :15:52.vision the Chancellor will try to present tomorrow. You have
:15:52. > :15:57.different ideas of who is being unfairly penalised, does any of you
:15:57. > :16:00.feel that there is any fairness in this strategy. Do you Gillian?
:16:00. > :16:04.are certainly trying to find that. It was very telling that they have
:16:04. > :16:08.now taken to pointing the finger at foreign corporation, that is a very
:16:08. > :16:11.convenient way to say we will get more tax on them, whether it is
:16:11. > :16:15.Starbucks with or Google, or somebody else like that. We will
:16:15. > :16:20.see more and more of that going forward. The Chancellor is clearly
:16:20. > :16:24.trying to position this budget that it is fair. There are measures that
:16:24. > :16:28.will try to hit those at the top, restricting pension tax relief for
:16:28. > :16:32.high earners, corporate tax, as Gillian says. And also measures to
:16:32. > :16:36.support people on middle income, freezing fuel duty, for example.
:16:36. > :16:43.But the reality is there is some very difficult choices to be made.
:16:43. > :16:46.It is positive that there money going into infrastructure, but
:16:46. > :16:52.squeezing frontline services isn't sustainable. This question about
:16:52. > :16:55.choices, it is an illusion, isn't it, there is room for manoeuvre?
:16:55. > :16:59.There is a question about a balancing act, they are walking
:16:59. > :17:03.down a high wire right now. Very subtle presentation issues, and
:17:03. > :17:06.subtle swings to the right or left will have a big impact now. Do you
:17:06. > :17:10.think there is choice? No, I think politics are she short-term, they
:17:10. > :17:13.are look to go 2015, and they have said not much will happen while
:17:13. > :17:17.there is a coalition, you actually need to do things, and you will
:17:17. > :17:20.upset more people. Maybe you can start moving this economy. That is
:17:20. > :17:26.what is important. If the predicament is so great, and the
:17:26. > :17:29.area for manoeuvre is so, very, very narrow, it doesn't rather make
:17:29. > :17:33.you think what 2015 will be about. Whether anyone can offer anything
:17:33. > :17:36.terribly different? No, and I think there is an international
:17:36. > :17:39.disillusionment with politics, which is correct. What can they do?
:17:39. > :17:43.But I think the talking about it, people are fed up with that,
:17:43. > :17:46.actually you do need to do something. I have just come from a
:17:46. > :17:55.charity dinner, more and more is being put on the charities. Where
:17:55. > :18:01.do he they think the money is coming from?
:18:01. > :18:04.The a chief economist from the BIF, gave a devastating speech and
:18:04. > :18:07.pointed out that economic cycles happen in multidecade periods, and
:18:07. > :18:11.Governments only last for a few years. You have the fundamental
:18:11. > :18:15.clash right now, you need Governments to be able to take a
:18:15. > :18:19.five-year or ten-year view, yet unfortunately they are looking at
:18:19. > :18:23.one or two years at most. That is a real problem. There is no way
:18:23. > :18:29.around that? Not at the moment, no. Not unless you believe in
:18:29. > :18:32.democracy? Or you look like technocratic solutions like Monti
:18:32. > :18:35.in Italy. Maybe the next decade will be about people questioning
:18:35. > :18:39.the balance of how democracy works and looking at more technocratic
:18:39. > :18:43.solutions. The economic choices confronting the west right now are
:18:43. > :18:49.so painful, that the pressure won't evaporate quickly. There are
:18:49. > :18:55.clearly tough choices, we shouldn't be too, throw up our hands too much,
:18:55. > :18:58.there are decisions thatkg made now, investing more in skills and
:18:58. > :19:03.apprenticeships, which will improve levels of production in our economy,
:19:03. > :19:08.move us towards a more innovative economy. Policies like childcare,
:19:08. > :19:12.for example, which can produce more bang for their buck. We must also
:19:12. > :19:15.think about what can be done in the here and now, as well as
:19:15. > :19:18.considering the difficult situation we find ourselves now. You take
:19:18. > :19:21.something like the Standard, when they have a campaign to get people
:19:21. > :19:26.out there to help, people to go into schools, people to help with
:19:26. > :19:30.reading, people come forward. It is motivating people in the right way.
:19:30. > :19:33.I was talking to my clients over the Olympic, the Olympics did a
:19:33. > :19:40.great thing. I have just been away, and people said fantastic what we
:19:40. > :19:43.did. If you built on something like that, that is progress, getting
:19:43. > :19:47.people all facing the same way and seeing a benefit.
:19:47. > :19:53.The American Congress looks to be on the verge of passing a law
:19:53. > :19:56.guaranteed to irritate Russia. Moscow is warning of what it calls
:19:56. > :19:59."harsh counter action" in retaliation for legislation to be
:19:59. > :20:01.debated in Congress tomorrow. Which will bring in all sorts of
:20:01. > :20:07.restrictions on people said to have been involved in human rights
:20:07. > :20:10.abuses. The trigger is the death of a lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky. But the
:20:10. > :20:15.case has potential implications, right across relations between
:20:15. > :20:21.Russia and the west. In a moment we will talk to the man taking the
:20:21. > :20:25.bill through the US Senate. First Mark Urban reports.
:20:25. > :20:33.It has emerged that it demonstrates it was definitely Magnitsky to
:20:33. > :20:38.blame. A convicted thief, a has given us his testimony confirming
:20:39. > :20:45.the link between Mr Magnitsky. He was told in no uncertain terms that
:20:45. > :20:51.the mastermind of the whole affair was Sergei Magnitsky. The play, One
:20:51. > :20:54.Hour 18 Minute, was performed in London last week. It is about the
:20:54. > :20:57.last moments of Sergei Magnitsky. He died in a Russian prison three
:20:58. > :21:03.years ago, while working for a businessman, who is determined to
:21:03. > :21:07.hold those responsible to account. Whenever we had big worries or big
:21:07. > :21:12.problems, or big situations, he would be just as much of a
:21:12. > :21:16.counsellor to us as a legal specialist. He was just a decent
:21:16. > :21:21.really good-hearted guy. Sergei did not want to compromise his
:21:21. > :21:28.integrity by doing what would have made his life much easier, they
:21:28. > :21:33.would have stopped torturing them if he had perjuryed himself, he
:21:33. > :21:36.refused to do -- perjured himself. Knowing he died doing that,
:21:36. > :21:39.protecting me from what they were torturing himself into doing, is
:21:39. > :21:44.the most unpleasant, painful thought that anyone could ever have.
:21:45. > :21:51.That is what drives me, every day, to make sure that for him, trying
:21:51. > :21:58.to protect me, that he died, I have to protect him pros tu mostly and
:21:58. > :22:02.make sure they -, -- posthumously, and make sure they don't get away
:22:02. > :22:06.with it. This could bring Russia into fresh controversy, as a new
:22:06. > :22:10.law in the United States targets hundreds of Russians officials.
:22:10. > :22:14.Hopefully a year from now we will be sitting in a seat where we can
:22:14. > :22:17.say that Sergei Magnitsky's death changed the way in which human
:22:17. > :22:23.rights abuses are being dealt w and the way they are being dealt with
:22:23. > :22:27.going forward, not just his case, but other cases, is take away their
:22:27. > :22:31.visas and take away their assets. Russia can keep this Magnitsky law
:22:31. > :22:38.as normal, it is not normal from our point of view. It is
:22:38. > :22:41.discrimination of Russians. We don't want to a low anybody to
:22:41. > :22:47.believe that somebody can discriminate against Russians and
:22:47. > :22:50.to have no responsibility. Bill Browder's company bought a
:22:50. > :22:55.Russian business, and soon discovered it to be involved in a
:22:55. > :23:04.huge tax fraud. Sergei Magnitsky was digging into that, when he was
:23:04. > :23:08.arrested and thrown into Moscow's notorious Boutirka prison. The list
:23:08. > :23:12.of those abusing and killing him amounted to 60 people. Some from
:23:12. > :23:15.the prison were fired, and others cleared by Russian investigations.
:23:15. > :23:19.Let me just share with my colleagues, just a little bit about
:23:19. > :23:24.the life and death of Sergei Magnitsky. But such is the evidence
:23:24. > :23:28.now accumulating against those on the list, that the House of
:23:28. > :23:32.Representatives last month passed the Magnitsky Act, banning those
:23:32. > :23:36.held responsible from entering the US, owning property there, and
:23:36. > :23:40.freezing any assets. Campaigners are now seeking similar legislation
:23:40. > :23:47.in the UK, with support even from a former ambassador to Moscow.
:23:47. > :23:57.would very much like to see the UK and the EU, western European
:23:57. > :24:00.countries, pass the same law. Not because I'm anti-law, but Russia is
:24:00. > :24:02.suffering from a cancer of corruption, and a cancer of out of
:24:02. > :24:11.control security and authorities, this sort of action by western
:24:11. > :24:19.countries will help them to get this sort of thing under control.
:24:19. > :24:23.Tony Brenton had a number of stand- offs with Russian officialdom while
:24:23. > :24:31.there. Britain also pointed the finger at Russian state security
:24:31. > :24:38.for attempting to assassinate exiled tycoon, Berseovsky in the UK.
:24:38. > :24:40.The unexplained death of another Russian, Mr Alexander Perepilichny,
:24:40. > :24:45.threatens further stress in the relationship. Mr Perepilichny died
:24:45. > :24:48.while out jogging in Surrey. He had been giving evidence to those
:24:48. > :24:52.investigating Sergei Magnitsky's death, and the tax fraud he was
:24:52. > :24:58.probing. In the summer of 2010 we received
:24:58. > :25:01.an e-mail from an unknown man named Alexander Perepilichny. Who said
:25:01. > :25:05.that he had some information on some of the tax officials, the
:25:05. > :25:09.people who did the illegal tax refund, about how they got rich,
:25:09. > :25:13.and how their money went to Switzerland. We thought that was a
:25:13. > :25:17.very interesting suggestion. And so we met with him, he showed up with
:25:17. > :25:22.what I would describe as a treasure trove of documents. Russia's
:25:22. > :25:26.Foreign Ministry has reacted to the passage of the UK Magnitsky Act, by
:25:26. > :25:34.accusing the Americans of double standards, and threatening a harsh
:25:34. > :25:41.response. There has been speculation about reciprocol bans,
:25:41. > :25:44.and harsh trade agreements, and even disruption to key agreement on
:25:44. > :25:48.the UN Security Council. Sergei Magnitsky was 37 years old, he left
:25:48. > :25:52.behind a wife and two children. the Magnitsky Act goes through
:25:52. > :25:56.Congress, many names are being added to it, some seeking also to
:25:56. > :26:00.extend it to Russian officials accused of other crimes. It is
:26:00. > :26:05.becoming a template for action, against a broad swathe of
:26:05. > :26:10.officialdom. In London, and other European capitals, Russian
:26:10. > :26:15.diplomats anticipate similar battles, as new Magnitsky Acts are
:26:15. > :26:18.put forward in these different countries. Already human rights
:26:18. > :26:23.campaigners have expanded the original list to hundreds of
:26:23. > :26:28.Russian official, they believe that carrying Onyango this path is
:26:28. > :26:31.essential to Chancellor -- on in this path is essential to
:26:31. > :26:35.challenging the corruption and illegality in Putin's Russia.
:26:35. > :26:39.have to understand who the Russians are, they are extremely aggressive
:26:39. > :26:43.group of people, who have all sorts of criminal interests. To some how
:26:43. > :26:48.try to appease them, over the hopes that they might be nice to you, it
:26:48. > :26:53.is like a battered wife hoping that the husband will not beat them the
:26:53. > :26:58.next time. We have leavenage here. People don't seem to understand --
:26:58. > :27:01.leverage here, people don't seem to understand, that targeted sanctions
:27:01. > :27:05.against corrupt officials, in countries like the UK and the US,
:27:05. > :27:09.and France, is about the biggest leverage you could ever have.
:27:09. > :27:13.We remember him every minute of every day. Sergei Magnitsky met a
:27:14. > :27:18.lonely and lingering death, in a Moscow jail cell. Remembered
:27:18. > :27:22.initially by those who loved him, or who he worked with, his name is
:27:22. > :27:32.set to appear on the US statute book, a rallying point for those
:27:32. > :27:36.who wish to change Russia. Senator Ben Cardin is on Capitol
:27:36. > :27:40.Hill. Do you know how many people will be subject to this law if it
:27:40. > :27:43.is enacted? The number of people that will be subjected are those
:27:43. > :27:46.that were involved, those that we have clear evidence that were
:27:46. > :27:50.involved. We're not going to release the numbers, but at this
:27:50. > :27:53.point it is those who attempt to come to our country, are not going
:27:53. > :27:58.to be able to. Those who want to use our banking system, won't be
:27:58. > :28:01.able to do it. We don't want their illegal gains to be hidden in
:28:01. > :28:06.America, or for them to be able to visit their wealth here in America.
:28:06. > :28:11.It is the right standard. We call it the Magnitsky Standard, we want
:28:11. > :28:13.it to be used internationally we think that those who are violators
:28:13. > :28:17.of gross international human rights standards, shouldn't benefit from
:28:17. > :28:20.being able to visit, or hide their money in another country. But to be
:28:20. > :28:26.clear about this, will they know that they are on the list, and how
:28:26. > :28:30.will they be able to get off the list? They will be known when the
:28:30. > :28:36.list is released, there will be a list. Quite frankly, they will know
:28:36. > :28:39.if they can come to America or not. They try it apply for visas,
:28:39. > :28:43.frankly, they know. The people involved here, this is not a hidden
:28:43. > :28:48.secret, we know the individuals, we have identified the individuals,
:28:48. > :28:52.they know who is involved here. The tragedy is the Russian federation
:28:52. > :28:56.hasn't taken action against them N some cases they have been promote.
:28:56. > :29:00.We are attempting to say, look, you have a responsibility as a country,
:29:00. > :29:04.to the rule of law and to hold accountable those who have violated
:29:04. > :29:07.basic human rights. This bill is really aimed at the Russians. The
:29:07. > :29:10.Russians deserve a better Government. Quite frankly, there
:29:10. > :29:14.have been many Russian business loaders, as well as citizen, who
:29:14. > :29:17.have urge -- leaders, as well as citizens, who have urged us, not
:29:17. > :29:21.just America, but other countries, to take action to help their
:29:21. > :29:24.country do what is right. There may be very senior figures in the
:29:24. > :29:28.Russian Government who could be on this list and prevented from coming
:29:28. > :29:32.to the United States, couldn't there, presumably? This bill is not
:29:32. > :29:36.aimed at political leaders, but those who are involved in
:29:36. > :29:40.corruption and the death of individuals who have tried to be
:29:40. > :29:44.responsible and bring this attention to their Government. It
:29:45. > :29:49.is gross violations of human rights that have cost people their lives
:29:49. > :29:56.and fortune. It is a well-focused, and not aimed at political leader.
:29:56. > :30:01.Vladimir Putin, though, sits at the top of that system? Mr Putin, we
:30:01. > :30:05.have concerns about him, it is not aimed at a political leader, as I
:30:05. > :30:09.said before, there would be no danger whatsoever, if if Mr Putin
:30:09. > :30:12.wants to visit the United States, he will be clearly welcomed in the
:30:13. > :30:16.United States, this bill is not aimed at the head of the Russian
:30:16. > :30:21.federation. It is aimed at those who were involved in the cover-up,
:30:21. > :30:25.those who were involved in the penetration of the crimes against
:30:25. > :30:32.Sergei Magnitsky. Why stop at Russia, though, why not apply this
:30:32. > :30:36.rule to China, to Saudi Arabia, to various other states in the gulf?
:30:36. > :30:40.We agree, it should be universal and global. We think it is the
:30:40. > :30:43.standard now, once Congress has enacted this, in regards to Russia,
:30:43. > :30:49.that this will become the international standard. I have
:30:49. > :30:53.talked to many of the co-sponsors of this lepblgs lakes, both in the
:30:53. > :30:58.House and the Senate, we intend for it to be applied to other countries.
:30:58. > :31:03.There will be those that says, what right does a country what ships
:31:03. > :31:06.people around the world, holds them in secret prisons and has trials
:31:06. > :31:10.throughout the world, what right do they have to lecture on human
:31:10. > :31:17.rights? We don't lecture, we believe in international standards,
:31:17. > :31:20.I believe we should be transparent in the way we deal with unlawful
:31:20. > :31:24.combatants, that is a more recent problems within the international
:31:24. > :31:28.community, there hud be international standards for dealing
:31:28. > :31:32.with unlawful combatant -- should be international standards for
:31:32. > :31:35.dealing with unlawful combatants. They pose a risk to all our
:31:35. > :31:39.countries, we need the information we need to keep our country safe,
:31:39. > :31:43.it has to be done in an appropriate way. Do you measure or take into
:31:43. > :31:50.account at all, the need to secure the co-operation of countries like
:31:50. > :31:54.Russia, which have pretty discreditable human rights records
:31:54. > :31:58.in many case, but they need to be on board to get some sort of peace,
:31:58. > :32:04.for example, in Siria. Don't they? It is interesting, I chair the
:32:04. > :32:06.United States Helsinki Commission, our participating arm in the
:32:06. > :32:09.Organisation for Security and Co- operation in Europe, I'm the Senate
:32:09. > :32:12.chair. Our responsibility as a member-state, Russia's
:32:12. > :32:17.responsibility as a member-state, is we have a responsibility to
:32:17. > :32:22.raise these issues. We think that good relations require us to be
:32:22. > :32:25.honest with our partners and say, look, we need help with regards to
:32:25. > :32:30.trade ordealing with Iran, ordealing with other issues, but it
:32:31. > :32:35.doesn't hold us back from our responsibility, to raise other
:32:35. > :32:40.issues concerning human rights. That is what a mature relationship
:32:40. > :32:43.involves, it is complicated and it is not one issue. Certainly it is
:32:43. > :32:47.our responsibility to raise the issues as we see fit.
:32:47. > :32:52.Thank you. Ever since Elvis Presley pulled on
:32:52. > :32:56.a pair of blue suede shoe, there has been a vital and much
:32:56. > :33:01.overlooked connection between footwear and music. Think Nancy
:33:01. > :33:06.Sinatra, Paul Simon, punks in Dr Martens, or rappers in deluxe
:33:06. > :33:10.trainers. There has surely never been a more likely pairing than the
:33:10. > :33:16.sensible, back-to-school shoes made by Clarke's of the West Country,
:33:16. > :33:21.and thumping baselines of Jamaican Reggie. Yet star perform mers there
:33:21. > :33:24.have gone to the top of the charts, by extolling the virtues of the
:33:24. > :33:30.brand which thousands of British children have only better at the
:33:30. > :33:35.behest of their man. A much-needed coffee table book has been written
:33:35. > :33:45.on the subject now. Steve Smith reports.
:33:45. > :33:49.So many feet, so many shoes. Can you tell just from this, that these
:33:49. > :33:53.are dancing feet! Some of us love a shoe shop, of
:33:54. > :33:59.course, for others it can be a bit of a drag. A reminder of buying a
:33:59. > :34:09.new pair for school. If only there was a bit more colour, and pizas,
:34:09. > :34:10.
:34:10. > :34:18.to the whole shoe experience. # Teach your children
:34:18. > :34:28.# How to spell Stone me, it is only reggae great,
:34:28. > :34:29.
:34:29. > :34:33.Dennis Alcapone. Dennis, fancy seeing you here?
:34:33. > :34:38.Dennis has long been a natty dresser, as evidenced by this
:34:38. > :34:44.picture for his LP Beguns Don't Argue. That goes for his footwear
:34:44. > :34:50.too. Not bragging and boasting, but Jamaicans are trend setters. We are
:34:50. > :34:53.fashion-conscious. From, I was a little boy growing up, it was
:34:53. > :34:59.always Clarke's. If you're not wearing the Clarke's, then you are
:34:59. > :35:03.not saying nothing. They seem to fit perfectly. She looks like a
:35:03. > :35:09.proper little Princess. Hang on a minute, are we talking
:35:09. > :35:19.about the same Clarke's. The perfectly good, but how to say it,
:35:19. > :35:27.intensely practical things that our mum's pushed us into.
:35:27. > :35:33.# Clarks me prefer Dear long suffering viewer, we are.
:35:33. > :35:37.Here is Jamaican dancehall thing, Vibes Cartel and things,
:35:37. > :35:47.celebrating his accesssory. Good to see an advertisment for good shoe
:35:47. > :35:49.
:35:49. > :35:55.maintenance. # Let me get my Clarks
:35:55. > :36:00.# I'll show you Clarks. In the Caribbean, it turns out the
:36:00. > :36:05.unassuming lace-up and the ankle boot are the footwear of choice,
:36:05. > :36:15.beloved of the biggest names on the reggae scene. I have a full closet
:36:15. > :36:23.
:36:24. > :36:28.of Clarks, more than any other Live and direct, straight!
:36:28. > :36:35.Of course, other brands of shoe, and I can't stress this too
:36:35. > :36:40.strongly, are also available. But why are Clarks so on-trend in
:36:40. > :36:43.Jamaica. A London-based DJ has gone in search of answers.
:36:43. > :36:48.Clarks are from England, and Jamaican people, generally,
:36:48. > :36:53.especially in the past, I would say, loved things that came from England,
:36:53. > :36:56.or way were made in England. They were made to a certain quality. If
:36:56. > :37:01.a Jamaican was coming to England, the number one thing that they
:37:01. > :37:11.would be asked to bring back would be Clarks. And then string vests!
:37:11. > :37:15.As a second thing. There is your follow-up book, right there! Yeah.
:37:15. > :37:23.Strip this story back to its roots, and you are left with utter
:37:23. > :37:27.cobblers, sigh rus and Sirus and James Clark who founded the
:37:27. > :37:31.business in the 18th sent treatment What on earth do you think they
:37:31. > :37:37.would make of these reggae guys loafing about in their shoes in the
:37:38. > :37:42.Caribbean? I think they would not really be surprised. I think Nathan
:37:42. > :37:45.Clark, who invented the desert boot, thought they were popular because
:37:45. > :37:48.they were naturally good-looking in a rugged way. I don't think they
:37:48. > :37:54.would be surprised that those sort of things that are valued in
:37:54. > :37:59.Jamaica, have made them a really popular style out there.
:37:59. > :38:06.While Popcaan relaxes on the set of his latest video in Jamaica, it is
:38:06. > :38:12.important to point out that this story isn't entirely sunny.
:38:12. > :38:17.One of his former collaborators is facing a murder charge. But, then,
:38:17. > :38:22.even the highly reputable Clarks, has found itself linked to a
:38:22. > :38:27.slightly dubious history. In Jamaican dancehalls, police once
:38:27. > :38:30.picked on young men wearing the shoes. They asked all people with
:38:30. > :38:35.Clarks boots to go one side, and people with other shoes to step to
:38:35. > :38:40.the other side. Why was that? rude boys wear Clarks. The rude
:38:40. > :38:47.boys? That is how they have it. Rude boys is mainly a street boy.
:38:47. > :38:50.Rude boys are people who love to dress good. By any means necessary.
:38:50. > :38:54.They might be a little bit, some of them might be in trouble with the
:38:54. > :38:59.law, shall we say? There is different dimensions. What they
:38:59. > :39:06.started doing, they started meeting the boys with the Clarks, because
:39:06. > :39:14.they said they are boys. No such trouble for Dennis Alcapone
:39:14. > :39:21.at the dancehall these days. Where he is swaging the greatness of mens
:39:21. > :39:25.wear. If you want to see this item again it is available on the
:39:26. > :39:32.iPlayer. When I'm going out to the dance, I have to be stepping in my
:39:32. > :39:36.Clarks boot. We're going to have another look at
:39:36. > :39:41.tomorrow morning's front pages now. The first look, the Duchess of
:39:41. > :39:44.Cambridge is all over most of the tabloids, but some of the other
:39:44. > :39:52.papers have tomorrow's Autumn Statement, though.
:39:52. > :40:01.Osborne hitting banks again in the Times, Paul, what is all that
:40:01. > :40:03.about? The i and i thinking there will be an extra tax on the banks.
:40:03. > :40:10.Another one? The article doesn't have any detail about that. We
:40:10. > :40:14.await the detail. But it is a clear thing, he has to come for all
:40:14. > :40:22.sections of British society, and the banks are people who clearly
:40:22. > :40:25.can have money to pay. I think the FT is more promising, in terms of
:40:25. > :40:29.concreteness. Osborne to extend austerity to 2018. Remember,
:40:29. > :40:33.famously, a year ago, on this programme, Danny Alexander, came on
:40:34. > :40:37.and said we are extending the austerity into the next parliament,
:40:37. > :40:42.2018. 2018 is quite a way into the next parliament. We are getting
:40:42. > :40:46.close to the parliament after it. But, again, in there, sources close
:40:46. > :40:51.to the Chancellor says he favour not doing that. He will try to
:40:51. > :40:56.stick to the original debt target. The FT does reckon we will see a
:40:56. > :40:59.very pessimistic, downgrade of growth forecast, which is the
:40:59. > :41:02.premise of the discussion we have had tonight. If we don't grow, we
:41:02. > :41:06.can't grow our way out of the deficit, we are in trouble.
:41:06. > :41:09.don't think he will say that? think he will say it, but the
:41:09. > :41:13.sources close to the Chancellor say he won't. So, I mean, look we just
:41:13. > :41:21.have to wait. It is only 12 hours, it is like Christmas, if you wait
:41:21. > :41:25.long enough we will find out what the presents are, and the Office
:41:25. > :41:30.for Budget Responsibility will be delivering them to us geeks of the
:41:30. > :41:35.statistical world. Enjoy. The Guardian with growth and NHS
:41:35. > :41:40.figures jolting Osborne? I mean look, the parties are very much on
:41:40. > :41:43.a sort of agenda of �1 billion here or there. Labour has hit back on
:41:44. > :41:47.the Conservatives' �5 billion spending move, saying that proves
:41:47. > :41:52.you shouldn't have cut it in the first place. There is a row going
:41:52. > :41:56.on about whether they have cut or not the NHS, with the official
:41:56. > :42:00.statisticians piling in on Labour's side tonight. These newspaper on
:42:00. > :42:04.the eve of one of the biggest turning points for the Government.
:42:04. > :42:08.Very interesting in that they indicate almost an eye of the storm
:42:08. > :42:11.inability to judge what the coalition is going to do. Some of
:42:11. > :42:15.us still think he might come up with something quite big tomorrow.
:42:15. > :42:21.Clearly none of the papers have got it. He hasn't made his speech yet,
:42:21. > :42:31.of course they don't know? If they were to say, look, we are going for
:42:31. > :42:31.
:42:31. > :42:34.growth, and, or, we are goingor austerity, 2018 we will hit the
:42:34. > :42:39.targets, welfare getting a massive cut. It won a massive headline
:42:39. > :42:43.tomorrow. But the inability of the most politically connected papers
:42:43. > :42:47.to judge where the Government are coming from, tells you a bigger
:42:47. > :42:52.story about the narrative. I see the Telegraph going with the news
:42:52. > :42:57.that we are spending �2 billion on wind turbines in the third world.
:42:57. > :43:01.That is a different announcement? The day you get a wind turbine
:43:01. > :43:07.announcement for the third world, on the eve of an economic
:43:07. > :43:16.announcement, the day you know nobody really knows anything.
:43:16. > :43:20.Couple of other papers, saying Kate could be on the drip for weeks.
:43:20. > :43:24.That is the change in law of male inheritance. And the Independent is
:43:24. > :43:28.much more concerned about sperm. That's it, it's turned out that the
:43:28. > :43:33.news of the Duchess of Cambridgeshire's pregnancy hasn't
:43:33. > :43:38.just benefited the royal wind bag industry. Nick Nack makers are
:43:38. > :43:45.thrilled, and in Naples, the craftmen running up Nativity scenes,
:43:45. > :43:49.are slaving around the clock night and day to bring the tableau up to
:43:49. > :43:59.the minute. Joseph has a new look foo.
:43:59. > :44:14.
:44:14. > :44:19.foo. -- too.
:44:19. > :44:24.Hello, an icey and potentially snowy start for some of news the
:44:24. > :44:29.morning. A band of sleet and wet snow across many areas. A covering
:44:29. > :44:32.in place, be aware of that in the morning. Once it clears, lots of
:44:32. > :44:36.sunshine. Crisp but cold into the afternoon, there will be wintry
:44:36. > :44:41.showers towards eastern and coastal counties, rain, sleet and hail
:44:41. > :44:45.along the coast. Inland they will fall in snow, giving a light
:44:45. > :44:49.covering where they fall too. Further west we have one or two
:44:49. > :44:53.showers pushing the far west of England. Away from these good sunny
:44:53. > :44:57.spells. Any sunshine does nothing for the pefrp tour, it will be aled
:44:57. > :45:00.cold day. For Northern Ireland the odd shower towards the north and
:45:00. > :45:04.north-east. The best of the sunshine will be further west.
:45:04. > :45:07.Across Scotland a fine day for many. We will start off with snow showers
:45:08. > :45:12.in the far north, a fresh covering here. They will fade away, it will
:45:12. > :45:18.be a cold day, many of us staying in frost. From Wednesday's sunshine
:45:18. > :45:20.to Thursday's wet and windy weather. The weather system moves in from
:45:20. > :45:25.the Atlantic, towards northern England and Scotland, snow over the
:45:25. > :45:29.hills, it will take a while for that rain to reach southern areas,