:00:13. > :00:19.The deficit is down, borrowing is down, jobs are being created, it is
:00:19. > :00:22.a hard road, but we are making progress.
:00:22. > :00:26.There probably wasn't much else he could say. The best the man
:00:26. > :00:31.managing the nation's economy could come up with, "it's taking longer
:00:31. > :00:33.than we thought, but we're on the right track". But the austerity
:00:33. > :00:35.will continue, and some of the worse off people in society, in
:00:35. > :00:39.particular, will find things getting worse.
:00:39. > :00:43.The Chancellor laid it out in facts and figures, Plan A isn't quite
:00:43. > :00:46.working. Instead, he announced Plan B, it
:00:46. > :00:50.wasn't the Plan B that the opposition wants. He will be
:00:50. > :00:57.cutting benefits, the better off and butter oingcy.
:00:57. > :00:59.We will take -- Bureaucracy. We will take a brain scan of
:00:59. > :01:05.today's Autumn Statement and see what it says.
:01:05. > :01:12.We speak to the head of the office for budget responsibility on why
:01:12. > :01:17.his sums went awry again. Next time the Chancellor cites any
:01:17. > :01:21.of your figures, we have to have it in the back of our minds that they
:01:21. > :01:27.might be wrong. We will speak to George Osborne's number two and his
:01:27. > :01:37.Labour equivalent, and reconvene our panel, three pun pundits and
:01:37. > :01:37.
:01:37. > :01:42.103 opinions. It was National Pantomime Day today,
:01:43. > :01:46."no no it isn't" they cried in London, as pundits of various
:01:46. > :01:50.credibility turned their eyes to Westminster to see the front half
:01:50. > :01:53.of the coalition pantomime horse tell us what is happening to the
:01:53. > :01:57.economy. He had almost nothing amuse to go say. We have six more
:01:57. > :02:02.years of austerity to look forward to, he won't meet his own target
:02:02. > :02:08.for cutting the public debt, and yet he claims that the plans are
:02:08. > :02:16.working. "oh no they weren't", cried the opposition. Paul Mason
:02:16. > :02:20.was somewhere at the back playing with his calculator.
:02:20. > :02:25.Wrapped up in tinsel, lit by neon, it is hard to accept this is an
:02:25. > :02:34.economy that is shrinking. But it is. And the Government's plan to
:02:34. > :02:39.shrug off the debt by-election time, Plan A, has not worked.
:02:39. > :02:43.Mr Speaker, it's taking time, but the British economy is healing.
:02:43. > :02:46.Chancellor stood up, knowing he had missed two crucial targets, it will
:02:46. > :02:50.take two years longer than originally promised to balance the
:02:50. > :02:54.Government's books, and a year longer to get the total debt
:02:55. > :02:58.falling. He could have said, well, we will cut harder, but he didn't.
:02:58. > :03:04.Now, then there are those who say that, despite all that has happened
:03:04. > :03:10.in the world this year, we should cut even more now to hit the debt
:03:10. > :03:13.target. That would require �17 billion of extra cuts a year. Let
:03:13. > :03:18.me explain why I have decided not to take this course. We have always
:03:18. > :03:22.argued we should let the automatic stablisers work, we have not argued
:03:22. > :03:26.we should chase down a cyclical or temporary ded tearation in the
:03:26. > :03:32.economy. Particularly one -- temporary deterioration in the
:03:32. > :03:36.economy, particularly one that is said to be largely driven by
:03:36. > :03:41.problems abroad. They face a choice between targets and realisim,
:03:41. > :03:45.realisim won, so that even the Christmas shoppers of 2017 will be
:03:45. > :03:49.feeling them, two years longer than planned. This is what growth was
:03:49. > :03:53.expected to look like two years ago, and here is the reality and the new
:03:53. > :03:57.forecast, much lower. Low growth meant the Treasury would have had
:03:57. > :04:03.to borrow an extra �106 billion over the next five years. But it
:04:03. > :04:06.reduced it to �50 billion, mainly by pocketing the interest stored up
:04:06. > :04:11.in the Bank of England due to quanative easing. Labour, who had
:04:11. > :04:15.suggested things might go wrong, were happy to point out they had.
:04:15. > :04:19.The Chancellor's fiscal strategy has been completely derailed, Mr
:04:19. > :04:23.Speaker. The defining purpose of the Government, the cornerstone of
:04:23. > :04:30.the coalition, the one test they set themselves, to balance the
:04:30. > :04:33.books and get the degt falling by 2015, -- debt fall big 2015, is now
:04:33. > :04:37.in tatters. Both sides at Westminster are now
:04:37. > :04:41.facing a new reality, even the Chancellor's supporters think our
:04:41. > :04:44.long-cherished credit rating is in question. I think that the triple-A
:04:44. > :04:49.status is likely to go now. If he was going to keep that, he would
:04:49. > :04:52.have had to make something of the order of �20 billion, he says �17
:04:53. > :04:58.billion, additional cuts to public spending. The only place he could
:04:58. > :05:01.have got the money for that, was by cutting the health and schools'
:05:01. > :05:04.budgets, since that was completely off the political agenda, in
:05:04. > :05:07.reality, the most you could hope for, is he would carry on with the
:05:07. > :05:12.cuts he had scheduled to other departments. The Chancellor's
:05:12. > :05:15.figures have to be signed off by an independent body, called the OBR,
:05:15. > :05:20.it said today his new definite reduction target is achievable. But
:05:20. > :05:24.it said that last year, and the year before, and both times he
:05:24. > :05:28.missed it. It is the same with growth, for three years running,
:05:28. > :05:31.the OBR has overestimated how much we are going to get of the Why did
:05:31. > :05:34.they get it wrong? I think, to a very large extent, there are two
:05:34. > :05:37.reasons, one is the international environment is worse, and what is
:05:38. > :05:42.going on in the eurozone does impact on us quite severely. The
:05:42. > :05:46.second thing, they underestimated the negative impact of tightening
:05:46. > :05:48.fiscal policy, of cutting the deficit too fast, which was a
:05:48. > :05:55.mistake and had significant economic consequences.
:05:55. > :05:59.Chancellor was able, just, to keep the deficit falling, by booking
:05:59. > :06:02.�3.5 billion receipts of the sale of mobile phone license, by
:06:02. > :06:08.reducing overseas aid, and a reserve earmarked for the Afghan
:06:08. > :06:12.war. On growth, he has redirected �5 billion into spending on
:06:12. > :06:15.infrastructure, that, plus a cancellation of 3p rise in fuel
:06:15. > :06:19.duty, a cut in corporation tax, and big tax reliefs on business
:06:19. > :06:24.spending, are a clear signal that growing is now more important than
:06:24. > :06:29.extra spending cuts. I don't think it adds up to a
:06:29. > :06:32.growth strategy, I think the �5 billion in infrastructure spending
:06:32. > :06:35.is a welcome recognition that the cuts in investment, which to be
:06:35. > :06:41.fair, this Government largely inherited from the previous one,
:06:41. > :06:45.that those cuts were a mistake, and did considerable economic damage,
:06:45. > :06:49.and this reverse is welcome. But it is not large enough to have a real
:06:50. > :06:55.significant impact on growth and employment in the next year or two.
:06:55. > :06:59.The biggest move today came on benefits, instead of rising in line
:06:59. > :07:02.with inflation, jobseeker's allowance, ESA, the benefit most
:07:02. > :07:07.disabled people will get, and income support, will all rise by
:07:07. > :07:12.just 1% a year. By 2015 that, and cuts to the Universal Credit, will
:07:12. > :07:17.net the Treasury �3.7 billion. At the same time, the Chancellor will
:07:17. > :07:22.take �600 million from the rich, by limiting tax reliefs on pensions.
:07:22. > :07:26.The welfare cut is big, politically it will be huge. But for economists,
:07:26. > :07:31.what matters is Britain's deteriorating position on debt, on
:07:31. > :07:34.deficit, and on growth. The whole of what the Government calls Plan A
:07:34. > :07:38.was designed to avoid this moment, so what's left of it?
:07:38. > :07:43.The two key things this Government would like to be remembered for, I
:07:43. > :07:49.think, are cutting the deficit and raising the personal allowance to
:07:49. > :07:52.�10thou though although in this -- �10,000, although he wasn't able to
:07:52. > :07:57.make progress in terms of cutting the deficit, he was able to make
:07:57. > :07:59.progress in raising the personal allowance, in this Autumn Statement.
:07:59. > :08:02.Ploughing on in political strategy is a thing to remember here. In
:08:02. > :08:06.terms of the next general election, his strategy will be to say, those
:08:06. > :08:14.that tell you there is an easy way out, are lying to you. There is
:08:14. > :08:18.only tough and tough and tough. What the Chancellor signalled today
:08:18. > :08:23.was not an end to austerity, but a limit to it. Where now, into the
:08:23. > :08:26.battle -- we are now, into the battle, over where the pain will be
:08:26. > :08:30.distributed. Paul is in the studio, first a
:08:30. > :08:34.quick word from our political editor, Allegra Stratton. It is
:08:34. > :08:39.interesting, relating to the point made towards the end of your point,
:08:39. > :08:43.even my Labour sources said today was a points win for George Osborne,
:08:43. > :08:48.because he had this terrible news he was supposed to announce, and he
:08:48. > :08:56.managed to wriggle free, he announced it, but had enough other
:08:56. > :08:59.things to announce, that the narrative tomorrow will not be what
:09:00. > :09:03.it was expected to be. It leads to a question, even if you went into
:09:03. > :09:08.the nebgts election with the growth strategy, and the deficit reduction,
:09:08. > :09:12.supposed to be the strategy, not being as clean as they would like,
:09:12. > :09:15.could they still do it and go to that election and get back in. The
:09:15. > :09:19.question becomes, at what point does the public decide that they
:09:19. > :09:22.don't think they have delivered on bringing down deficit and debt. So
:09:22. > :09:27.at what point? There is three things being discussed, because the
:09:27. > :09:30.public isn't there right now, the three things, is it the credit
:09:30. > :09:35.rating, when the credit rating industries say they don't buy it
:09:35. > :09:39.any more, it doesn't have to be, look at America. Is it eurozone
:09:39. > :09:43.countries doing well, or Labour coming out with their massive plan
:09:43. > :09:48.themselves. The economics and politics are in different places at
:09:48. > :09:53.the moment. Paul? The electorate doesn't vote on fiscal policy, it
:09:53. > :09:56.votes on things like tax, but fiscal policy and all these targets,
:09:56. > :09:59.it is one stage removed. But, if you look at the narrative of the
:09:59. > :10:02.coalition Government, not just the Conservatives, it has been very
:10:02. > :10:06.much around what they have been trying to do. If it was a book, if
:10:06. > :10:11.the coalition was a book, and you said what is it about, you would
:10:11. > :10:15.say it is about cutting the deficit to zero. If you asked how the book
:10:15. > :10:18.ended, it would be they don't cut the deficit, but they might in the
:10:18. > :10:21.second book of the series. You can see the problem. Committing the
:10:21. > :10:25.Liberal Democrats to all sorts of future things they might not want
:10:25. > :10:29.to be committed to. The danger in politics rather than out in the
:10:29. > :10:36.electorate, is it removes the spring driving the machine? There
:10:36. > :10:39.is one measure we have that meshs the high politics and the feel for
:10:39. > :10:43.people lives, the Ronald Regan thing, of are you better off now
:10:43. > :10:46.than five years ago, tonight the Resolution Foundation, this
:10:46. > :10:49.programme does a lot of work, they have crunched the numbers in the
:10:49. > :10:52.OBR's report, and shows that the OBR is pushing back from these
:10:52. > :11:02.numbers today, the date at which living standards begin to feel a
:11:02. > :11:05.little less bad. They have pushed that back to 2014, when they were
:11:05. > :11:08.2013 the electorate will feel the pound is going further, close to an
:11:08. > :11:11.election. As Labour people were saying this evening, it confirms
:11:11. > :11:17.the next elections about living standards. The other thing we could
:11:17. > :11:20.say about the OBR, you are about to talk to the boss of it in a minute.
:11:20. > :11:25.That is the Office for Budget Responsibility, the first thing is,
:11:25. > :11:28.not everybody agrees with them, that the hole in the budget that we
:11:29. > :11:33.discovered today is what we call cyclical. Some economists believe
:11:33. > :11:37.it is structural, if it was structural, then the Tory
:11:37. > :11:41.hardliners and the Treasury hardliners, who wanted the cuts of
:11:41. > :11:45.�17 billion extra a year, for some considerable time, their hand would
:11:45. > :11:48.have been strengthened. The other issue with the OBR, the other thing
:11:48. > :11:51.we have covered on this programme forever, is about growth strategy,
:11:51. > :11:58.how do you grow the UK economy. The Government believes it has a growth
:11:58. > :12:01.strategy. The OBR put figures on what the effects of that are, it is
:12:01. > :12:04.distinctly unimpressive. That is facts and figures, it says you have
:12:04. > :12:08.the growth strategy, but you are still not really cutting it. While
:12:08. > :12:12.the rest of the country was listening to George Osborne and
:12:12. > :12:16.exclaiming OMG, the Chancellor just kept repeating those letters you
:12:16. > :12:20.have just heard, OBR, the Office for Budget Responsibility is George
:12:20. > :12:23.Osborne's comfort blanket, he created it to have an outfit within
:12:23. > :12:27.Government which would produce independent forecasts, on which he
:12:27. > :12:32.could base political decision. The problem is, that the economic
:12:32. > :12:36.forecasting so often seems a lot more like some spiritualist seance
:12:36. > :12:38.than anything else. Earlier I caught up with the head of the
:12:38. > :12:43.Office of Budget Responsibility, Robert Chote. Robert Chote, would
:12:43. > :12:47.the Government have made a better job of running the economy if your
:12:47. > :12:50.forecasts had been better? Given that the Government has to make
:12:50. > :12:55.decisions about tax and spending plans, looking forward into the
:12:55. > :12:59.future, you always have to base them on some sort of sense of how
:12:59. > :13:02.the public finances would evolve F we had known, along with every
:13:02. > :13:06.other forecaster, how long the persistence of weak productivity
:13:06. > :13:10.growth, and the implications that seems to have for the long-term
:13:10. > :13:13.potential health of the economy and the public finances, that task
:13:13. > :13:17.would have been easier than from the start. It rather makes anybody
:13:17. > :13:21.ask what is the point of you? are difficult judgments to make.
:13:21. > :13:26.Which you got wrong? Which we have changed, as every other person
:13:26. > :13:29.making those judgments has. admit you got them wrong? We have
:13:29. > :13:32.changed our mind about the hit to the economy, and the depth of the
:13:32. > :13:35.hole in the public finances that has to be filled in. Wouldn't it be
:13:35. > :13:39.more accurate to say your function is to act as George Osborne's human
:13:39. > :13:43.shield? No, I think the function, as with the many other fiscal
:13:43. > :13:47.councils that have been set up in different countries, is to provide
:13:47. > :13:49.the best professional judgment we can as to the outlook for the
:13:49. > :13:52.public finances. And for politicians to make policy
:13:52. > :13:58.decisions based on those. They don't have to believe our forecasts.
:13:58. > :14:02.They can act in a different way, if they want to. As in other countries,
:14:02. > :14:06.the finance ministers are have been perfectly -- have been perfectly
:14:06. > :14:09.happy to say they don't share the view of their fiscal council and
:14:09. > :14:13.act akorgdly. George Osborne might have been better to just ignore
:14:13. > :14:17.you? I don't think he could have been. In what way has had helped
:14:17. > :14:20.him to have duff forecasts? It has helped in the sense that you have
:14:20. > :14:23.figures that are clearly explained as to where they are coming from.
:14:24. > :14:27.They are wrong? Every economic forecast turns out to be wrong. We
:14:27. > :14:31.look back and we explain, as clearly as we can, why things have
:14:31. > :14:35.turned out differently from the way we have done. It is only by doing
:14:35. > :14:39.that in a rigorous way, that you provide people with the information
:14:39. > :14:43.they need to make judgments. Next time the Chancellor cites any of
:14:43. > :14:47.your figures, we should all have, in the back of our minds, that they
:14:47. > :14:51.are likely to be wrong? Absolutely. You should be looking at the
:14:51. > :14:54.uncertainties that lie around every economic forecast. That is why we
:14:54. > :14:58.demonstrate the confidence you should have in the numbers based on
:14:58. > :15:01.the accuracy of past forecasts. We look at how sensitive our judgments
:15:01. > :15:06.on the Government's targets are to different outcomes, what difference
:15:06. > :15:09.does it make, how important is it? The economy grows more or less
:15:09. > :15:14.quickly, there is more or less spare capacity, if the spare
:15:14. > :15:17.capacity in the economy is used up faster or slower. All those are
:15:17. > :15:21.things that any Chancellor or would-be Chancellor would need to
:15:21. > :15:24.reach a decision. If they were to say they have come up with a
:15:24. > :15:28.forecast, and that must be right and I will proceed on that basis,
:15:28. > :15:31.that would be foolish. Would you give this country a triple-A
:15:31. > :15:36.rating? That is not something we have to reach a judgment on. I
:15:36. > :15:39.think the notion of a credit rating agency, in terms of thinking about,
:15:39. > :15:44.are the Government's finances sustainable, a key difference is
:15:44. > :15:48.that we are in a position where we have our own currency. In that
:15:48. > :15:53.sense we have a greater degree of flexibility, that means that the
:15:53. > :15:57.notion of the danger of insolvency, is a much different question for us.
:15:57. > :16:00.You mean we just print more money? Well, the Government has been doing
:16:00. > :16:04.a deal of that, or the Bank of England has been doing a deal of
:16:04. > :16:10.that, to help keep demand going in the future. So I think that people
:16:10. > :16:13.take a broad view on whether they think that this Government, or any
:16:13. > :16:17.other Government, will deal with the difficulties in the public
:16:17. > :16:20.finances over an appropriate time. A lot of people say it would be a
:16:20. > :16:23.political disaster if we lost a triple-A rating from. The point of
:16:23. > :16:28.view of a highly-trained economist, would it matter? Other countries
:16:28. > :16:31.have seen downgradings and have been in a similar sort of position,
:16:31. > :16:34.and it hasn't made an enormous difference to the reactions the
:16:34. > :16:39.markets have to them. Often Credit Rating Agencies are looking at the
:16:39. > :16:42.same information that everybody else does, its not clear what
:16:42. > :16:46.additional information, a would-be investor in British Government debt
:16:46. > :16:51.learns from that, that they couldn't have learned from looking
:16:51. > :16:56.at our forecasts and others in the first place. Do you think George
:16:56. > :17:02.Osborne has failed to meet his debt target by 2015? If you look at the
:17:02. > :17:09.way the market have reacted to the widespread speculation that this
:17:10. > :17:14.would be the case over the last few weeks. There isn't an dramatic
:17:14. > :17:17.impression that it has affected the long-term credibility of the
:17:17. > :17:21.Government's management of the public finances. He had a choice to
:17:21. > :17:24.make about whether to do what was necessary to ensure that target
:17:24. > :17:28.would stilling hit. He has chosen to let it go. Parliament has told
:17:28. > :17:33.us we shouldn't take sides in that debate. As a highly-trained
:17:33. > :17:38.economist you have no view on this? I have interesting views you can
:17:38. > :17:41.wait to read in my memoirs. Then they might be wrong? Almost
:17:42. > :17:45.certainly, yes. Although it was cloaked in the
:17:45. > :17:49.language of the managing the economy, you wouldn't expect a man
:17:49. > :17:53.in charge of the election strategy to misan opportunity d miss an
:17:53. > :17:57.opportunity to score political points, or dig a few holes and
:17:58. > :18:01.plant pointy sticks in them. It hasn't escaped George Osborne's
:18:01. > :18:11.notice that the next election will be fought in the midst of austerity.
:18:11. > :18:21.This is what our political editor, Allegra Stratton, making of it.
:18:21. > :18:33.
:18:33. > :18:36.As we are about to leave autumn, the Chancellor, today, drove
:18:36. > :18:40.through the last of the autumn leaves, to deliver the season's
:18:40. > :18:44.grand economic statement. George Osborne was apparently on the verge
:18:45. > :18:48.of admitting his economic strategy as good as a plate of autumnal
:18:48. > :18:52.toast. Far from bringing down borrowing, he was expected to
:18:52. > :18:55.announce it was up. This is from a man determined not to sanction more
:18:55. > :18:59.borrowing, also known as Plan B. When the Chancellor did get to his
:18:59. > :19:07.feet, he delivered Plan B, it wasn't the sort of Plan B that the
:19:07. > :19:11.opposition has been falling for. We show our determination to do
:19:11. > :19:20.this fairly, with further savings from bureaucracy, from the benefits
:19:20. > :19:23.bill, and from the better off. Lots of Bs in parliament, not the
:19:23. > :19:29.ones Labour thinks the economy needs. The Autumn Statement in 2012
:19:29. > :19:35.was to be an enjoyable moment for the opposition, an "I told you so"
:19:35. > :19:39.moment, when the Chancellor returned to his words, "we are all
:19:39. > :19:42.in this together", the opposition past. This statement can be seen as
:19:42. > :19:47.an atonement statement by the Chancellor, an admission that he
:19:47. > :19:50.knows the budget of six months ago unravelled spectacularly, and this
:19:50. > :19:53.time round more discipline needed. No trips to Washington, or
:19:53. > :19:58.briefings to the press, and more coalition unity than we have seen
:19:58. > :20:00.in 12 months. The result is he managed to wriggling out of one
:20:00. > :20:04.economic target that had been central to his Government, and in
:20:04. > :20:09.the process, lay a few booby traps for the opposition. In the last two
:20:09. > :20:15.years, the deficit has fall bin a quarter. Today's figures -- fallen
:20:15. > :20:19.by a quarter. Today's figures show with or without the APF coupons,
:20:19. > :20:24.the deficit is forecast to fall this year again, cash borrowing is
:20:24. > :20:29.forecast to fall too. Osborne was only able to say the
:20:29. > :20:33.deficit would fall this year, because of �3.5 billion raised from
:20:33. > :20:36.the sale of 4G mobile phone licenses, it is a sale not yet
:20:36. > :20:39.taken place. One cabinet minister said they had done so because Ed
:20:39. > :20:45.Balls had also used the money to stimulate the economy, and they
:20:45. > :20:47.would do so too. For backbenchers, delighted this evening at the
:20:47. > :20:52.return of George Osborne the tactition, the booby traps are
:20:52. > :20:55.these. Firstly, we now know that the Government will do another
:20:55. > :21:01.Comprehensive Spending Review. This means as of next summer we will
:21:01. > :21:04.know what it will spend and cut in the years 2015/16, it means we go
:21:04. > :21:08.into the next election with the Government saying what they will
:21:08. > :21:13.cut, and Labour will have to come out with more details too. The
:21:13. > :21:20.second booby trap is this, in April next year there will be a vote on
:21:20. > :21:24.the uprating of benefits by only 1%, which way does Labour go, again.
:21:24. > :21:27.The Spending Review a difficult call for the Chancellor, he has to
:21:27. > :21:31.set spending targets because the election will be a month into the
:21:31. > :21:34.financial year. He will have to go into the next election, saying we
:21:34. > :21:40.will cut again spending on transport and education, and
:21:40. > :21:43.justice and all those sorts of things. Who was this budget for? My
:21:43. > :21:48.sources within Government diagnosed the group of strivers, as those
:21:48. > :21:52.earning between �19,000 and �30,000 a year. Help for them today
:21:52. > :21:55.included a shelving, forever, not just till April, of the planned 3p
:21:56. > :22:00.rise in fuel duty, and also a surprise, another increase in the
:22:00. > :22:04.personal tax allowance. For others, not so far up the income spectrum,
:22:04. > :22:09.not such good news. 400,000 extra people were today brought into the
:22:09. > :22:13.higher rate of tax. If you have a number of kids, you are actually in
:22:13. > :22:18.the upper middle bit of income distrib bough, and not feeling
:22:18. > :22:22.particularly happy -- distribution, and not feeling particularly happy
:22:22. > :22:26.about your might. It is a difficult decision today to raise more money,
:22:26. > :22:29.and the Chancellor was up front, which is welcome. The opposition
:22:29. > :22:34.went for the jugular on capping benefits much The majority of
:22:34. > :22:40.people who lose from his cuts to tax credits, are people in work.
:22:40. > :22:44.Millions of families, striving hard to do the right thing, Mr Speaker.
:22:44. > :22:47.What do the Prime Minister's allies say to that? An important point is
:22:48. > :22:51.it wasn't a freeze. If you look at where he has rated it, it is the
:22:51. > :22:54.same place public sector pay will be, in the same place as average
:22:54. > :22:59.earnings growth in the private sector. It is very much about
:22:59. > :23:03.parity. That is a very important point. Anything that looked unduly
:23:03. > :23:05.punitive would have caused those concerns, think he has the right
:23:05. > :23:09.balance. It was the Autumn Statement and
:23:09. > :23:13.measures announced today to take you through more than four seasons,
:23:13. > :23:18.next summer and spring bring the next Spending Review, more cut, but
:23:18. > :23:21.which ones. With us now is Rachel Reeves, the
:23:21. > :23:24.Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Danny Alexander, her
:23:24. > :23:30.Government counterpart. Are we supposed to take today's
:23:30. > :23:33.announcement as evidence you are running the economy well? Yes, I
:23:33. > :23:38.think we are running the economy well. The statement today reflected
:23:38. > :23:42.the world we are in, not the world we hope to be in, two years ago.
:23:42. > :23:45.The OBR and Robert Chote said, we have seen worse parts in the
:23:45. > :23:48.eurozone and other parts of the world economy, that slowed growth
:23:48. > :23:53.down. Our response to that is, rather than making more cuts now,
:23:53. > :23:56.that we could have done, if we were going to chase the debt target,
:23:56. > :23:59.instead we took more time to deal with the financial problems.
:23:59. > :24:06.Fundamentally, to get this country back on the right road, we have to
:24:06. > :24:11.clear up the mess of Labour. misread it? You missed your target?
:24:11. > :24:15.We have missed our debt target, we are on target to meet the
:24:15. > :24:17.structural deficit. Of course, look it is taking longer and it is
:24:18. > :24:22.harder to deal with the economic problems than we expected. Mainly
:24:22. > :24:26.because, as the O bfpl R themselves say, because of the problems in the
:24:26. > :24:32.world economy. That is not our problem, but we are responding to
:24:32. > :24:35.taking further decisions, and as Paul Mason said investing more in
:24:35. > :24:39.infrastructure, cutting taxes for business and putting more money
:24:39. > :24:42.into the pockets of working people. Is cutting the deficit still the
:24:42. > :24:47.number one priority? It is essential. That is not my question,
:24:47. > :24:50.is it the number one priority? have always said cutting the
:24:50. > :24:54.deficit is essential to achieve economic growth and restore
:24:54. > :24:58.prosperity. I notice you don't say it is the number one priority,
:24:58. > :25:02.which used to be your line? Without it, none of those things are
:25:02. > :25:04.possible, it is still absolutely essential. Not the number one
:25:04. > :25:07.priority, George Osborne made a great song and dance about this,
:25:07. > :25:11.you will recall? It is our first priority as a Government, to get
:25:11. > :25:18.the public finances in order. To deal with the deficit. Do you just
:25:18. > :25:24.remind us how much you are borrowing it this year? We will be
:25:24. > :25:27.borrowing �108 billion. �108 billion. That is down �50 billion
:25:27. > :25:31.since we came in. We cut the deficit in the first two years in
:25:31. > :25:34.Government by a quarter. Against these head winds in the world
:25:34. > :25:38.economy. We set out plans to deal with the deficit going further into
:25:38. > :25:43.the next parliament t will take longer, because the economic
:25:43. > :25:49.situation is worse than we expected. At least Robert Chote admits his
:25:49. > :25:53.forecasts are almost invariably up the spot! -- spout! Don't you have
:25:53. > :25:56.a similar degree of humility about the pledges you made? We are
:25:56. > :26:00.setting out our plans based on the best economic forecast we can get.
:26:00. > :26:04.We set up an independent Office for Budget Responsibility, precisely
:26:04. > :26:08.because we didn't want forecasts to be interfered with by politicians,
:26:08. > :26:13.as they were in the past. We make our judgments off the back of those
:26:13. > :26:17.things. Of course, Robert Chote has been very honest, and I, and George
:26:17. > :26:20.Osborne, that things have not turned out as we expected. Robert
:26:20. > :26:24.Chote published a detailed report earlier in the year, giving all the
:26:24. > :26:29.reasons why he thought his forekas were not accurate, that are
:26:29. > :26:34.principally to do with, the problems in the eurozone, and the
:26:34. > :26:37.pricinging and the way it is weighing on small and medium term
:26:37. > :26:41.business. We didn't cause the mess, but we are doing our best to clear
:26:41. > :26:49.it up. Let's look at borrowing figures, for example, there is a
:26:49. > :26:56.figure in there of �3.5 billion, income, from the sale of 4G
:26:56. > :26:59.telephone licenses. Have I missed something, have they been told?
:26:59. > :27:03.It is speculative money, it is money that doesn't exist? It is
:27:03. > :27:08.money that will come in this year. The Office of Budget Responsibility,
:27:08. > :27:12.looking at the evidence presented to them by the office doing that,
:27:12. > :27:17.decided to count them in the figures. Just as they do every year.
:27:17. > :27:24.This is like Billy Bunter's postal order? Not at all, if you look
:27:24. > :27:29.every year in departmental spending, departments are spending money on
:27:29. > :27:34.various things, income from assets sales and property sales. All those
:27:34. > :27:37.things have to be forecast in the normal way. I trust the judgment of
:27:37. > :27:40.the Office of Budget Responsibility. In coming to the conclusion that it
:27:40. > :27:47.was right to count that money this year, I'm sorry you don't.
:27:47. > :27:52.always, I was unaware of this, every year's economic figures
:27:52. > :27:56.include money that has not been realised and may not be realised?
:27:56. > :27:59.forecast, by definition, is a forecast of events that haven't
:27:59. > :28:03.taken place yet. That is why Robert Chote was pointing to the
:28:03. > :28:08.uncertainty of his forecast reasonably in his interview earlier.
:28:08. > :28:11.We can't rely on their forecasts or your promises? We have set out
:28:11. > :28:14.clearly what we are doing to departmental spending every year.
:28:14. > :28:18.One of the things clear from the OBR today, we have stuck to our
:28:18. > :28:21.plans from departmental spending, we are slightly ahead of those
:28:21. > :28:24.plans. We have reduced public spending by more than expected,
:28:25. > :28:29.that is one of the reasons the deficit is falling this year.
:28:29. > :28:34.Rachel Reeves, one of the things that is being done in order to
:28:34. > :28:40.reduce Government spending s to kapt uprating of benefits at -- cap
:28:40. > :28:44.the uprating of benefits at 1%? need to say what benefits the
:28:44. > :28:48.Government are uprate anything that way. I'm sure he can tell you?
:28:48. > :28:54.are published in the Autumn Statement published today.
:28:54. > :29:00.example, Child Tax Credit, child benefit, maternity pay. The
:29:00. > :29:04.Resolution Foundation say 60% of those benefits will be falling on
:29:04. > :29:09.people in work in modest income. We have real issue with the changes.
:29:09. > :29:14.We haven't seen the bill yet, so it is difficult to say. How we will be
:29:14. > :29:18.voting on it. But people who are most hit are those on modest income.
:29:18. > :29:24.The details are in the statement? The bill hasn't been written or
:29:24. > :29:28.published. It will be, there will be a limit of 1% to the uprating of
:29:28. > :29:33.benefits. Will you vote in favour of it? The bill hasn't been written
:29:33. > :29:40.yet, you haven't seen it and neither do I. We know what it will
:29:40. > :29:43.say? We know the impact on child poverty. Until that information is
:29:43. > :29:47.published, when the strerb publishes the bill, I'm not going
:29:47. > :29:54.to commit to vote for a bill we haven't seen yet. But I am clear.
:29:54. > :29:58.Do you support the principle of it? I don't support the principle of
:29:58. > :30:02.giving a tax cut for millionaire's next year, and on the same day
:30:02. > :30:05.cutting support for some of the most vulnerable in society.
:30:05. > :30:10.don't support it? I don't support those people with the least paying
:30:10. > :30:16.for deficit reduction, at the same time giving a tax give Ye to the
:30:16. > :30:19.rich in society worth �-- tax givaway to the rich in society
:30:19. > :30:25.worth billions. You will have to vote against it? We haven't seen
:30:25. > :30:30.the Bill yet, we don't know what decision provisions the Government
:30:30. > :30:34.will be making for poorer people. We will wait and see the bill, that
:30:34. > :30:37.is responsible. The Government say we will vote before Christmas, I
:30:37. > :30:42.hope the bill will be published in the next few days.
:30:42. > :30:46.Do you support performance-related- pay for teachers? What the
:30:46. > :30:50.Chancellor said today that Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, will
:30:50. > :30:52.bring forward market-facing pay. My understanding is regional and local
:30:53. > :30:57.pay. I have spoken to a lot of teachers in my constituency in
:30:57. > :31:03.Leeds, and around the country, who are saying, actually, it is already
:31:03. > :31:09.quite difficult to recruit teachers the toughest areas of country. This
:31:09. > :31:14.is likely to make it harder to do that. You won't support that?
:31:14. > :31:18.didn't support a regional pay bargaining, we are in favour of a
:31:18. > :31:21.national pay bargaining structure, where flexibility, where needed to
:31:21. > :31:24.recruit in hot spots. Moving to local and regional pay, which the
:31:24. > :31:29.Government have rejected in the National Health Service, they have
:31:29. > :31:34.said today, but wanting to reduce it in education, that won't get the
:31:34. > :31:37.best results for kids around the country. There will be a Spending
:31:37. > :31:42.Review, Danny Alexander's colleague has told us today, there will be a
:31:42. > :31:45.Spending Review, will it be next summer. Will you be doing a similar
:31:45. > :31:49.thing? We are not in Government. You can decide how you would run
:31:49. > :31:52.the economy, having got us partly into this mess? We can't do a
:31:52. > :31:56.Spending Review if we are not in Government. We are, at the moment,
:31:56. > :32:01.doing reviews into value for money and efficiency in public services,
:32:01. > :32:05.we have said when we come to power, we will look at a zero-based
:32:05. > :32:09.Spending Review, looking at everyone rather than a salami slice
:32:09. > :32:12.like the Government is doing. It is not something that is
:32:12. > :32:17.possible without the support of the Civil Service to do it. When it
:32:17. > :32:20.gets closer to the election. better watch out, it might be the
:32:20. > :32:23.Office of Budget Responsibility helping you out? Closer to the
:32:23. > :32:26.election we will publish our manifesto commitment, two-and-a-
:32:27. > :32:29.half years ahead of a general election it is not possible to do
:32:29. > :32:33.that. I want to explore the benefits question, most of the
:32:33. > :32:37.people who receive the benefits in question are actually in work,
:32:37. > :32:41.aren't they? Yes, people in work will be net better off next year
:32:41. > :32:44.and the year after as a result of the decisions we have announced.
:32:44. > :32:48.Were you comfortable with George Osborne talking about some people
:32:48. > :32:52.going to work, and other people, next door, perhaps, keeping the
:32:52. > :32:56.curtains drawn and staying in bed, were you comfortable with that
:32:56. > :32:59.language? That is not the language I use, most people I know are
:32:59. > :33:04.working very hard to get themselves back into work. This is a difficult
:33:04. > :33:08.decision to make to deal with the public finances. People in work, on
:33:08. > :33:12.tax credits, for example, will be net better off, because as a whole
:33:12. > :33:15.we have also got the biggest increase in the income tax personal
:33:15. > :33:20.allowances in this country. People in work will benefit from that, as
:33:20. > :33:24.a result of all the decisions we have made as Government,
:33:24. > :33:29.people...That Is not what the documents published today. People
:33:29. > :33:32.will be �50 better off a month. documents shown today show the
:33:32. > :33:37.average family will be worse off to the tune of �700 because of the
:33:37. > :33:44.decisions. That is on top of the VAT increase, that hit the average
:33:44. > :33:48.family by �450. And the tax changes this year will lead to well over a
:33:48. > :33:51.thousand pounds. I dispute what you are saying. The tax credit changes
:33:51. > :33:56.on that day means it will be worse off in real terms. Those numbers
:33:56. > :34:00.don't stack up. I want decisions today about uprating benefits today,
:34:00. > :34:03.it was a difficult decision, we set out the benefits in the Autumn
:34:03. > :34:06.Statement. She won't answer that now.
:34:06. > :34:10.We are reducing taxes for working people. A lot of the newspapers are
:34:10. > :34:14.referring to this tomorrow morning, it is the fact you have brought
:34:14. > :34:17.another 400,000 people into the upper tax bracket. Are you pleased
:34:17. > :34:21.about that? I didn't come into politics to do any of these things,
:34:21. > :34:26.but we have to do them. The crucial things to make sure is as we deal
:34:26. > :34:32.with the problems in the public finance, we do so fairly. That
:34:32. > :34:39.means everyone has to make a contribution. Are those on the top
:34:39. > :34:47.rate of tax, �3 billion into the hands of the richest people, 8,000
:34:47. > :34:51.millionaires and �100,000 worse -- better off next year. Those with
:34:51. > :34:56.the broader shoulders should bear the brunt of it. They are the
:34:56. > :34:59.numbers that you set up from the OBR, �3 billion tax cut next year.
:34:59. > :35:03.I won't take lectures from the Labour Party of millionaires. A
:35:03. > :35:07.party in 13 years in Government, had had millionaire equity fund
:35:07. > :35:12.managers paying a lower rate of tax on their gains than those cleaning
:35:12. > :35:17.the office. It was an utterly disgraceful position under the
:35:17. > :35:20.previous Government. The tuition fees, you are asking million airs
:35:20. > :35:23.to contribute even less to deficit reduction. You voted in favour of
:35:24. > :35:29.those things, you are just like the Conservative Party, you vote with
:35:29. > :35:32.them every single day? It was a contrick, nobody paid it.
:35:32. > :35:35.Office of Budget Responsibility said �3 billion brought in. The
:35:36. > :35:39.people saying the price are those on modest and middle incomes.
:35:39. > :35:44.You have no credibility on that point whatsoever. Credibility, I'm
:35:44. > :35:47.not taking lessons from the Liberal Democrats on that. All is
:35:47. > :35:50.tremenduously exciting, with the talk of cyclical borrowing and
:35:50. > :35:55.fiscal mandate, and it comes down in the end to something simple for
:35:55. > :35:59.most people, what does it mean for me. Will I feel itch richer or
:36:00. > :36:05.poorer, -- richer or poorer, will my family or town be worse off. Joe
:36:05. > :36:14.Lynam got the return off-peak ticket to Nottingham today, where
:36:14. > :36:20.he went to a flower factory. The moon still hoovers on the icey
:36:20. > :36:26.morning, days start early at the flower delivery business. Christmas
:36:26. > :36:32.is one of the busiest times of year. When the Government talked about
:36:32. > :36:36.strivers, had this family in mind. It started out under an umbrella 60
:36:36. > :36:40.years ago. We are predominant in the on-line business. What does the
:36:40. > :36:43.young managing director want now from the Autumn Statement? We want
:36:43. > :36:50.pounds in people's pockets. Tax breaks and opportunities for real
:36:50. > :36:57.people on the streets. So that they have got confidence to spend.
:36:57. > :37:01.My expectations are less in that regard.
:37:01. > :37:06.So, as the Chancellor began his speech, four employees, with four
:37:06. > :37:10.very different incomes, were watching carefully. What do you
:37:11. > :37:15.make of the corporation tax cut to 21%, that will affect you guys?
:37:15. > :37:23.is a few more pounds which we are able to keep, and invest into
:37:23. > :37:28.perhaps a new factory. Some equipment. The tax allowance to
:37:28. > :37:33.�250,000? That is useful, in our case, the really big stuff is
:37:33. > :37:39.things like a fridge. A cold centre, that costs a lot of money. That
:37:39. > :37:43.would be very useful. Chris started off in the call centre, and without
:37:43. > :37:47.any formal training, he's marketing manager. There is a lot of talk and
:37:47. > :37:56.not a great deal of policies. I don't think he has a lot of room to
:37:56. > :38:00.manoeuvre. The corporation tax cuts are good. He has done as much as he
:38:00. > :38:04.can in terms of people's personal allowances. He increased the ISA
:38:04. > :38:11.amount, to give people a little bit more. I don't think there is a lot
:38:11. > :38:15.there, to be honest. There was limited sympathy for those facing
:38:15. > :38:21.benefit cuts? I think it is a self- motivation to want to come in and
:38:21. > :38:25.do better every day. I'm not sure they are doing enough to encourage
:38:25. > :38:31.enough people to do that. Again, the been fits are so high for a lot
:38:31. > :38:36.of people, that there isn't really the encouragement to get up and go
:38:36. > :38:41.out and try to improve their own skill set. To try to improve their
:38:41. > :38:47.lives. Especially when you are being paid not to. When you are
:38:47. > :38:55.being paid not to have a job. are the people sitting at home.
:38:56. > :39:03.Yeah. 18-year-old hanjoinds Bunches as an apprentice d Hannah, joined
:39:03. > :39:08.Bunches as an a-- Hannah, joined Bunches as an apprenticeship, she
:39:08. > :39:12.thinks things aren't so bad. Some people don't want the work, it is
:39:12. > :39:17.hard for people to get a job. If you are lucky enough like I did,
:39:17. > :39:22.applied to it must be over 60, then surely one of them has to at least
:39:22. > :39:27.give you a chance of an interview. Sharon has been with the company
:39:27. > :39:33.since 197, her daughter is also employed here, she hasn't had a
:39:33. > :39:43.holiday in three years. Used to go out and buy clothes or go on
:39:43. > :39:44.
:39:44. > :39:47.holiday, it is just work and pay bills.
:39:47. > :39:52.This colliery closed in 1987, scaring the town in many place.
:39:52. > :39:56.Clarence worked there for 37 years, on this icey day he was hand-
:39:56. > :40:00.delivering Christmas cards. We do worry, the future of the younger
:40:00. > :40:06.generation. How come? Because they don't work. They are getting worse,
:40:06. > :40:10.there is no work for the young ones. At the end of the working day, at
:40:10. > :40:13.Bunches, three generations, all with very different stakes in the
:40:13. > :40:19.economy, gather to discuss the future.
:40:19. > :40:23.I think of some of our staff and what they earn on the factory floor.
:40:23. > :40:29.We pay them a good wage for the job they do. However, it is on the
:40:29. > :40:32.lower end. I think, you know, about all the working age benefits we
:40:32. > :40:37.have spoke been today, and they were going to increase by a per
:40:37. > :40:42.cent, but actually a per cent is less than inflation, so in real
:40:42. > :40:47.terms of money, they are probably going to have less to spend.
:40:47. > :40:51.Benefits were cut in real terms today, George Osborne, doubtless
:40:51. > :40:56.hopes, that will entice many off the dole and into the work force.
:40:56. > :40:58.Time now to summon the ghosts of Christmas past, present and future,
:40:58. > :41:03.Danny Finkelstein used to work for Conservative Central Office and
:41:03. > :41:08.writes for the Times now, Sally worked for Tony Blair and Downing
:41:08. > :41:13.Street, and Mark Pack editor of Lib Dem Voice, and prolific blogger and
:41:13. > :41:20.general commentator, I was going to say "nuisance"! Let's talk about
:41:20. > :41:24.the papers as well. Interesting a Government that
:41:24. > :41:29.misses its self-impose target, is getting reasonably good -- self-
:41:29. > :41:34.imposed target, is getting reasonably good press some? Yes,
:41:34. > :41:38.the -- tomorrow? But how incomes change is how people will really
:41:38. > :41:42.react. Partly because Ed Balls didn't do as well as he could have
:41:42. > :41:45.done, George Osborne was confident, the politics were good, it is a
:41:45. > :41:50.reasonable press in tomorrow's papers. Still, the decisions they
:41:50. > :41:54.have made are very hard for people. That is very hard incidentally
:41:54. > :41:59.politically, it is also hard to see. It means people on quite low
:41:59. > :42:03.incomes will be squeezed. That is very difficult. A hard road to 2018
:42:03. > :42:07.does catch it? You couldn't listen to those figures without thinking
:42:07. > :42:15.that. What we wanted to do was capture that in the headline.
:42:15. > :42:19.has, I mean, Daniely has already mentioned Ed Balls's performance --
:42:19. > :42:23.Danny has already mentioned Ed Balls's performance today, and
:42:23. > :42:27.there is talk from Labour supporters of missing an open goal?
:42:27. > :42:32.I was surprised by his performance, it was pretty much an open goal.
:42:32. > :42:35.Although George Osborne performed well, the message was pretty bleak.
:42:35. > :42:39.I thought particularly bad, although he had political headlines
:42:39. > :42:42.that were rather effective, if you look at the two groups I would be
:42:42. > :42:48.worried about if I was a Tory backbencher, I would be worried
:42:48. > :42:51.about the people in the 40% tax band, prime target voters for them.
:42:51. > :42:56.I would also be worried about labelling everyone as scroungers
:42:56. > :43:02.when a lot of them are at work. This will unfold in the days and
:43:02. > :43:07.weeks to come. But they have had a pretty decent first 24 hours is my
:43:07. > :43:10.guess. When you look at the Lib Dem contribution, you saw Danny
:43:10. > :43:14.Alexander a moment or so ago, you saw that moment in George Osborne's
:43:14. > :43:18.speech when Nick Clegg is sitting behind him, and virtually rolling
:43:18. > :43:21.his eyes. Because George Osborne's dismissed the mansion tax. And
:43:21. > :43:26.generally, acting in a pretty disloyal sort of fashion. What do
:43:26. > :43:29.you think the Lib Dems got out of this today? I think that was astute
:43:29. > :43:34.of Nick Clegg, those facial expressions can be a very effective
:43:34. > :43:37.way of conveying disagreement. It is no secret that Liberal Democrats
:43:37. > :43:43.and Tories disagree fundamentally on taxing wealth and taxing
:43:43. > :43:48.property. Clegg played a smart move by playingp the difference, but in
:43:48. > :43:51.a way that didn't -- playing up the difference, but didn't overshadow
:43:51. > :43:55.the news. That is the mistake the parties made for the budget in the
:43:55. > :43:59.spring, there was bits of good news, but so much was leaked in advance,
:43:59. > :44:04.all the news on the day was bad news. This time they got it right,
:44:04. > :44:08.there was good news, limited, but extra good news about cuts in
:44:08. > :44:13.income tax, the OBR figures better than expected. But those figures
:44:13. > :44:19.should be taken with a pinch of salt, there was good a genuine
:44:19. > :44:22.surprises. On the OBR, they forecast like all other economists
:44:22. > :44:26.forecast. Their analysis of the situation, and the figures
:44:26. > :44:29.underneath it in terms of the budget, those are very important
:44:29. > :44:32.for George Osborne, they basically allow him to argue it is not his
:44:32. > :44:37.fiscal policy that created the situation. The credibility of the
:44:37. > :44:41.OBR, on the forecasts, has taken a dent, everyone's forecasts were
:44:41. > :44:45.wrong. But the credibility underneath the budget, on the OBR,
:44:45. > :44:49.is critical, actually. People in the country want to know if George
:44:49. > :44:54.Osborne can put it right. In the end it is a pretty esoteric
:44:54. > :44:58.argument, about OBR figures or somebody else. The question is, can
:44:58. > :45:02.this man put this right on track. We know something key about the
:45:02. > :45:05.ground the next election will be fought? We certainly do, it is a
:45:05. > :45:09.different place than we all expected a few years ago.
:45:09. > :45:13.advantage of winning in the House of Commons, was the biggest danger
:45:13. > :45:17.today for George Osborne was to be seen not to make any progress. The
:45:17. > :45:20.figures could lend themselves to that analysis, very heavily. The
:45:20. > :45:24.fact that Ed Balls failed to make the point, gave George Osborne an
:45:24. > :45:27.advantage. In the long run people doesn't watch the events or know
:45:27. > :45:32.what is happening in the House of Commons. They will feel it in their
:45:32. > :45:35.pockets, that is a problem for the Government. What about the
:45:35. > :45:38.suggestion that shortly before the election there will be a tickling
:45:38. > :45:43.of the economy so people will feel better? No, they have to get the
:45:43. > :45:50.last year right, and make sure they don't impose unexpected increases
:45:50. > :45:53.in tax or reductions in business. It will be an interesting sort of
:45:53. > :45:59.environment to fight an election. The challenge for Labour is
:46:00. > :46:03.difficult? The challenge for Labour, is, I think that Labour are OK at
:46:03. > :46:07.the moment. Not bringing home a comprehensive spending plan at the
:46:07. > :46:11.moment, it would beed madness to bring it forward at this stage. We
:46:11. > :46:15.got it so wrong in a previous life doing that. Labour is exactly right,
:46:15. > :46:21.we can't go into the election in that position. That's the challenge
:46:21. > :46:27.in the next 18 months. The benefits thing, this question of 1% and how
:46:27. > :46:31.they jump on that, will put them in an awkward spot politically. What
:46:31. > :46:36.George Osborne did today will unravel, I think, for in a sense,
:46:36. > :46:43.his labelling all the benefit of not being at work and not seeking
:46:43. > :46:46.work, it was perfectly clear that was not supported as a headline by
:46:46. > :46:51.the liberals, and it is not a reality. That is why I thought he
:46:51. > :46:54.was being smart saying there will be a vote in parliament. People
:46:54. > :46:57.like Rachel Reeves can't side step it. That will be hard for Liberal
:46:57. > :47:03.Democrats, and peers, people like Ed Balls have a lot to work out
:47:03. > :47:10.about how Labour will handle that. If I was the Lib Dem chief in the
:47:10. > :47:14.House of Lords, I will be thinking it asteriky vote.
:47:15. > :47:19.You said we knew how the election would go and the politics, the Lib
:47:19. > :47:24.Dems are clearly going to propose a mansion tax, Vince Cable seems to
:47:24. > :47:28.have won that battle. It looks like Labour will as well, they have a
:47:29. > :47:31.position off the baseline, in which they have money, and the Tories
:47:31. > :47:35.will show how they will match it. We learned something else about the
:47:35. > :47:40.general election, there will be a lot of arguing about the mansion
:47:40. > :47:42.tax. And good for you, you think? suspect what we will see the
:47:42. > :47:50.Liberal Democrats saying at the general election, is mansion tax
:47:50. > :47:53.and using that revenue to cut knack tax further, so if you are earning
:47:53. > :47:58.anal minimum wage, in full-time job, you don't have to pay tax at all.
:47:58. > :48:08.That is a good headline position, it will be hard for the Tories to
:48:08. > :48:11.say instead of that money for that it goes somewhere else. It will be
:48:11. > :48:16.hard for Tories to say you need to pay counter tax. Why not liberal
:48:16. > :48:26.and Conservative. We will reconvene afterChristmas. That is it for now,
:48:26. > :48:27.
:48:27. > :48:37.the great jazz pianist and composer, Dave Brubeck, has died. His Let's
:48:37. > :48:44.
:48:44. > :48:54.Take Five was the first number one Take Five was the first number one
:48:54. > :49:02.
:49:02. > :49:06.Hello, after a very cold, frosty and icey night, it is Scotland that
:49:06. > :49:10.will bear the brunt of further snow through the Thursday morning rush
:49:10. > :49:15.hour. Met Office amber warnings in force. Be prepared for the
:49:15. > :49:20.likelihood of travel disruption. All of that wet weather, rain sleet
:49:20. > :49:28.and he snow moves into northern England. Tricky conditions in the
:49:28. > :49:34.Pennine. -- Pennines. Not much rain until afterdark in the south west.
:49:34. > :49:40.More rain into south-west and South Wales, unwanted rain for those
:49:40. > :49:44.suffering flooding t will turn wet late afternoon and into the evening
:49:44. > :49:49.especially. In Northern Ireland a wet start, eatsing off southwards,