:00:15. > :00:18.political parrying, tonight we examine where the pain will hurt
:00:18. > :00:24.examine where the pain will hurt most. With the numbers crunched, it
:00:24. > :00:28.looks like households with children are the biggest losers. Maternity
:00:28. > :00:32.pay shouldn't be squeezed, with the climate and household bills this is
:00:32. > :00:35.another thing to add on to it. the Autumn Statement under the
:00:35. > :00:41.microscope, are the cuts to come credible, how hard will they hit.
:00:42. > :00:46.Also tonight. The UN Secretary-General joins
:00:46. > :00:50.President Obama in warning Syria of dire consequences if they unleash
:00:51. > :00:57.chemical weapons, as NATO missiles head to Turkey's Syrian border, we
:00:58. > :01:05.talk to the Turkish ambassador. Mark Blanco died after a fall from
:01:05. > :01:10.a balcony six years ago, after a party attended by PeteDoherty and
:01:10. > :01:15.friends, police investigations have failed to find out what happened.
:01:15. > :01:20.Forensic investigators have looked at the CCTV again and his mother
:01:20. > :01:27.believes the investigation should be opened again. It is outrageous
:01:27. > :01:32.the way Mark's debt has been treated. More than 40 years on from
:01:32. > :01:42.this moment. It is one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.
:01:42. > :01:48.
:01:48. > :01:51.A first class ticket to the moon could be your's for �5 million. In
:01:51. > :01:54.the past 24 hours the Autumn Statement have been shaken down.
:01:54. > :01:58.And details like autumn leaves have been falling into the hands of
:01:58. > :02:04.number crunchers. What is clear is the Chancellor is having to play a
:02:04. > :02:07.very long game. The Institute of Fiscal Studies reckons cuts
:02:07. > :02:11.totalling �27 billion could be expected in the years after the
:02:11. > :02:15.2015 general election. Cuts most likely in police, local Government,
:02:15. > :02:21.defence, environment and transport. Making an overall squeeze of almost
:02:21. > :02:25.a third of their budgets. The IFS director said that begins to look
:02:25. > :02:31.inconceivable. Well, is it? We will be discussing that in a moment.
:02:31. > :02:34.First we have this. You will remember that before the
:02:35. > :02:39.last election, the Conservatives made much of the fact that they
:02:39. > :02:43.were going to save future generations from inheriting
:02:43. > :02:48.Labour's debt. Well, a new-born at the time of the last election would
:02:48. > :02:52.be roughly two-and-a-half now, and just like these toddlers at this
:02:52. > :02:56.nursery in Gravesend in Kent, facing an uncertain fiscal future.
:02:56. > :03:00.We now know they will be well through primary school before the
:03:00. > :03:04.debt stops rising. The day after the you bub budget, or statement,
:03:04. > :03:08.is normally when we get a truer picture of the real bad news, when
:03:08. > :03:12.independent analysts get to peer into the bare bones of a
:03:12. > :03:16.Government's figures. The first thing to say is how much worse a
:03:16. > :03:22.state the economy is, even compared to the predictions made just a few
:03:22. > :03:26.short months ago. We are in for a whole lot more pain.
:03:26. > :03:32.Here's where the independent OBR thought growth was heading way back
:03:32. > :03:38.at the time of the March budget. And here, is their line now.
:03:38. > :03:45.In fact, by 2016/17, that difference represents a hole in GDP
:03:45. > :03:49.of 3.6%, and much of that is permanent.
:03:49. > :03:52.So, given that the outlook is now so much worse than we thought it
:03:52. > :03:57.was, how come the Chancellor was able to say that borrowing is lower
:03:57. > :04:01.this year than last? Well, say the Institute for Fiscal you had
:04:01. > :04:08.studies, who have crunched the numbers -- studies, who had
:04:08. > :04:12.crunched the numbers, he as banking on the windfall from the 4G mobile
:04:12. > :04:16.phone spectrum, even though it hasn't been sold yet. And savings
:04:16. > :04:19.from Government departments not spending all of their budgets. The
:04:19. > :04:22.office for budget responsibility also assumes that similar
:04:22. > :04:25.underspend also take place in future years, which is a bit of a
:04:25. > :04:30.double-edged sword for the Government. You will remember on
:04:30. > :04:34.Tuesday the Government preannounced �5 billion worth of new capital
:04:34. > :04:39.spending to boost the economy, for next year and the year after. Well,
:04:39. > :04:44.today we learned that the OBR is assuming that the capital budget in
:04:44. > :04:49.those years will actually be underspent by �3 billion, meaning
:04:49. > :04:54.the Government's �5 billion boost is more like a net �2 billion boost.
:04:54. > :04:59.Not so impressive. The big story, though, is how the pain now extends
:04:59. > :05:02.far over the electoral horizon, another three years, and households
:05:02. > :05:07.with children could be hardest hit. The Government has so far only
:05:07. > :05:12.given us total spending for those years, not how the savings will be
:05:12. > :05:16.shared out. Today, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, analysed these
:05:16. > :05:19.totals against the Government's stated priorities, and came up with
:05:19. > :05:23.some startling predictions. Assuming that the Government will
:05:23. > :05:27.protect NHS, schools and international aid spending, as they
:05:27. > :05:34.have said they will, well, other departments will have to take
:05:34. > :05:37.another 16.2% of cuts, between 2014 and 2016/17. If you add that to all
:05:37. > :05:44.the cuts that have already happened under the coalition since 2010,
:05:44. > :05:48.then you get a total of 31.5% of cut for non-protected departments.
:05:48. > :05:54.Remember this includes defence, the police and local Government.
:05:54. > :05:56.According to the independent IFS, this is, quote "close to
:05:56. > :06:00.inconceivable". Public services like the police are already feeling
:06:00. > :06:06.the long arm of spending cuts. And proposals today would cut the
:06:06. > :06:09.starting salary of a PC by another �4,000.
:06:09. > :06:13.It is becoming politically very difficult for the Chancellor to
:06:13. > :06:18.continue to pile pressure on certain Whitehall departments, we
:06:18. > :06:21.may see problems in the prison system, or problems with the police,
:06:21. > :06:26.or problems in local Government. It will be difficult for the
:06:27. > :06:30.Government to brush those problems off, by 2015, by which time many of
:06:30. > :06:34.the departments will be under pressure. We got more information
:06:34. > :06:36.today of how the pain is being shared out F you divide the
:06:36. > :06:40.population into ten income groups, with the highest income on the
:06:40. > :06:45.right, the clear winners from the Autumn Statement are the higher
:06:45. > :06:50.than average paid, with the big losers at the bottom. The very
:06:50. > :06:58.highest paid are hit too, in fact, they get the biggest hit in cash
:06:58. > :07:02.terms, �8.05 worse off, compared to �5.10 at the bottom. In the budget
:07:02. > :07:08.in the bring George Osborne came unstuck, it looked unfair, the cut
:07:08. > :07:12.in the top rate of tax, the pasty tax, the granny tax, there were
:07:12. > :07:16.issues of fairness. Yesterday he went some way back to restoring
:07:16. > :07:20.that, supporting pensioners, cutting taxes for the low paid.
:07:20. > :07:26.Going after pension tax relief for the very highest earners. But, will
:07:26. > :07:28.it work, that's the big thing? families with children may not
:07:29. > :07:32.exactly feel fairly treated, broadly speaking they will be the
:07:32. > :07:36.worst hit from yesterday's statement. Changes like limiting
:07:36. > :07:39.increases in maternity pay and child benefit to below inflation,
:07:39. > :07:45.not popular. It definitely shouldn't be squeezed at the moment.
:07:45. > :07:48.With the climate as it is, it is hard enough as it is, with all
:07:48. > :07:53.household bills and everything else, this is another thing to add on to
:07:53. > :07:57.it. We can probably expect more pain in the form of tax rises and
:07:57. > :08:01.benefits cuts, perhaps even for wealthy pensioners, so far rather
:08:01. > :08:04.protected by the Government. That, of course, is all after the next
:08:04. > :08:08.election. We have got some number crunchers
:08:08. > :08:12.in the studio, Vidhya Alakeson, from the Resolution Foundation,
:08:12. > :08:16.Nicola Smith from the TUC, also Matthew Oakley from Policy Exchange,
:08:16. > :08:21.and Ruth Porter from the Institute of Economic Affairs. Nicola,
:08:21. > :08:25.austerity is a given, there is a resignation that nobody can do much
:08:25. > :08:28.about it, that is why there is very little dissent? It is as long as
:08:28. > :08:32.the Chancellor continues on an economic strategy that fails to
:08:32. > :08:37.meet stated objectives. We know from the Autumn Statement yesterday,
:08:37. > :08:40.we are no closer to reducing the deficit than we were in the first
:08:40. > :08:43.place. We need a stimulus to get the economy growing that gives us
:08:43. > :08:47.some chance of growth, with real wages rising and unemployment
:08:47. > :08:51.starting to fall. As your broadcast pointed out, we are seeing really
:08:51. > :08:54.large cuts in expenditure of service, which are absolutely
:08:54. > :09:00.hitting families with children, twice as hard as those without, and
:09:00. > :09:03.cuts in vital benefits that families depend on. �315 less in
:09:03. > :09:08.child benefit for a family with two children, this is not a strategy
:09:08. > :09:12.that is working or creating jobs we need. If you are going to reduce
:09:12. > :09:17.the state, presumably the people who will be hit hardest, are those
:09:17. > :09:21.who use the state, that is poorest people? The Welfare Bill has
:09:21. > :09:24.ballooned out of all control, we need to look at how we pull that
:09:24. > :09:27.back. Hitting maternity pay and child benefit? What is missing here
:09:27. > :09:30.is the other side of the equation. What we haven't heard from the
:09:30. > :09:35.Chancellor is discussion about how we are going to get living costs
:09:35. > :09:39.down. If you look at how you tackle poverty in Britain, the answer
:09:39. > :09:45.isn't taking more taxpayer money and redistributing it, the answer
:09:45. > :09:48.is looking at how to bring down the cost of things like housing. Second
:09:48. > :09:51.to Australia we have pretty much the most unaffordable housing in
:09:51. > :09:59.the western world. And the Government, still, even though they
:09:59. > :10:03.talk about it, hasn't taken action on planning liberalisation. We have
:10:03. > :10:07.a huge housing problems without enough houses, it will take a
:10:07. > :10:13.generation to sort that problem. We can't rely on growing housing
:10:13. > :10:16.supply to deal with day-to-day living costs. While the Chancellor
:10:16. > :10:19.calls it an Autumn Statement for strivers, more strivers are being
:10:19. > :10:24.hit. You are suggesting that the strivers are the working poorer,
:10:24. > :10:31.are the ones that are being hit? That is proven by all the analysis,
:10:31. > :10:35.that there are more families on low-to--middle income than those
:10:35. > :10:41.out of work. The Government has wanted always for it to be value
:10:41. > :10:44.for a family to work. Now we see actually we are going back into the
:10:44. > :10:47.trap? We spent the last 15 or 20 years trying to increase living
:10:47. > :10:50.standards and get people better off. Right now what the Chancellor has
:10:50. > :10:55.done is made a decision that is actually going to adversary affect
:10:55. > :10:59.the working poor. The strivers? think what you have to look at, we
:10:59. > :11:03.have tried to do this before, let's increase living standards and
:11:03. > :11:07.increase people in work, by giving them tax credits and more benefits,
:11:07. > :11:10.that clearly hasn't work. It has led to a welfare state that is very
:11:10. > :11:13.expensive, and people getting a lot of benefits. We can't keep
:11:13. > :11:16.increasing benefits over and over again, until we are getting more
:11:16. > :11:20.and more incomes from the welfare state, we have to start thinking
:11:20. > :11:24.about how to get more people incomes for themselves. How they go
:11:24. > :11:31.out and get higher incomes. We are completely living above our means,
:11:31. > :11:37.and actually we can't keep borrowing, that is the fact of it?
:11:37. > :11:42.I would be happy if you agreed with me to boost living standards for
:11:42. > :11:46.higher wages, and signing up to higher collective bargaining.
:11:46. > :11:53.can we afford the private wages, look at private industry right now,
:11:53. > :12:01.people can't afford the wages? some places the economy can't
:12:01. > :12:06.afford higher wages in tanging economy, but if we boost growth.
:12:06. > :12:13.Cutting benefit when we need those who need to spend, on low incomes
:12:13. > :12:19.it doesn't make sense. The OBR imply as much. It does make a huge
:12:19. > :12:22.amount of assumptions, the OBR? was hugely interesting looking past
:12:22. > :12:26.2015, and talking about the cuts needed. I think when you start to
:12:26. > :12:29.look at the forecasts, they are very optimistic, I would be
:12:29. > :12:33.surprised if the level of cuts aren't higher than they are saying.
:12:33. > :12:37.You think it is optimistic to say the unring-fenced departmented
:12:37. > :12:40.would have to cut the budget by a third -- departments would have to
:12:40. > :12:45.cut the budgets by a third? can't go on ring-fencing health.
:12:46. > :12:51.What we have is a situation where the recommendation has been made
:12:51. > :12:55.that police constable should not start on �23,000, but on �19,000,
:12:55. > :13:02.presumably you agree with that? do, but we need to reduce living
:13:02. > :13:06.costs for people. It is crazy that pensioners were exempted, why do we
:13:06. > :13:10.do that. Presumably you agree with pensioners being exempted, yet what
:13:10. > :13:14.could be the rational for exempting pensioners just because George
:13:14. > :13:18.Osborne got a hard time round last time round? I wouldn't agree with
:13:18. > :13:21.that. We have talked about sharing the burden of the cuts, I don't see
:13:21. > :13:26.any reason after the next election why pensioners should be exempted
:13:26. > :13:32.at all. You would agree with that? Absolutely, we would have looked to
:13:32. > :13:34.change, not the annual limit on pension tax relief, but the
:13:34. > :13:38.lifetime limit, the Chancellor could have raised more money that
:13:38. > :13:42.way. Also, we have a situation where we have ring-fenced and
:13:42. > :13:46.unring-fenced departments, can ring-fencing continue? No.
:13:46. > :13:49.areas that aren't ring-fenced, we talked about some departments
:13:49. > :13:53.facing cuts of up to 30%. Some departments are facing cuts of
:13:53. > :13:58.close to that amount, social care, housing, for example, parts of
:13:58. > :14:01.nursery education, set to see very steep cut. And these big
:14:01. > :14:04.announcements on Monday about education? We come back to the IFS
:14:05. > :14:09.saying it is simply not sustainable. People need the services to depend
:14:09. > :14:12.on. It is not just about ring- fencing, we needing to back and we
:14:12. > :14:16.need a proper, thorough re-think as to what the Government should be
:14:16. > :14:19.doing. Do we really need an Institute for Women, and a
:14:19. > :14:23.Department of Business, innovation and skills.
:14:23. > :14:27.What about local Government? think another way to do it is to
:14:27. > :14:30.actually carve down what central Government does, and actually give
:14:30. > :14:33.local Government much more responsibility, and allow them to
:14:34. > :14:38.also raise more money locally, so have quite a different balance of
:14:38. > :14:41.how we do Government in Britain. would agree we have to be sensible
:14:41. > :14:45.about where we spend our money, some of the cuts are counter-
:14:45. > :14:48.productive. The Government has cut 26% spending on youth unemployment,
:14:48. > :14:51.instead we are spending thousands of points for a nearly million
:14:51. > :14:55.young people to spend years out of work. That isn't sustainable. The
:14:55. > :15:00.best way to get the benefit bill down is to get people back in jobs.
:15:00. > :15:03.Thank you very much. The Syrian Government say the west are
:15:03. > :15:12.whipping up fear about President Assad unleashing chemical weapons
:15:12. > :15:17.as a pretext to intervene. The regime was responding to President
:15:17. > :15:21.Obama saying any use of such weapons would be a crime with dire
:15:21. > :15:28.consequences responding with NATO. NATO has agreed to missiles and
:15:28. > :15:32.troops along the border with Syria in Turkey. We have this report, who
:15:32. > :15:38.was in Damascus, I spoke to Jeremy boun earlier.
:15:38. > :15:43.Do you get the sense -- Jeremy bow yen earlier. Do you get a sense
:15:43. > :15:46.that the regime is rattled over the censure over the threat to use
:15:46. > :15:49.chemical weapons? The Assad regime is under more pressure than at any
:15:49. > :15:54.other time. Since all of this started, nearly two years ago, yes
:15:54. > :15:56.they are feeling the strain. There is absolutely no doubt about that.
:15:56. > :16:00.President Assad himself hasn't been seen in public for a couple of
:16:00. > :16:04.weeks, I think, and as you go round this city, and this is my first
:16:04. > :16:11.visit back here, since January, because visas are hard to come by,
:16:11. > :16:16.I can really see the deterioration in the regime's position. Now, if
:16:16. > :16:20.Assad is under pressure, what is your hunch, if the regime was to
:16:20. > :16:26.fall, would he be like Gaddafi, saying he would stay and fight, or
:16:26. > :16:32.do you think he would clear off? think that Syria has a pretty stark
:16:32. > :16:37.choice, actually. That is, that there needs to be some kind of a
:16:37. > :16:41.political solution between the many and varied factions here. The
:16:41. > :16:45.opposition side, both internally with the armed opposition, and
:16:45. > :16:49.internality politically, and external opposition, it is
:16:49. > :16:54.incredibly fragmented, and there is the regime. I think if there isn't
:16:54. > :17:00.some kind of a political deal, then the outlook for Syria is really
:17:00. > :17:05.very bad indeed. A long and bloody conflict, I think that there might
:17:05. > :17:09.be the dissent of Syria into being some kind of a failed state, the
:17:09. > :17:12.growth of warlordism, and because of the connections that Syria has,
:17:12. > :17:19.all that will be felt in the countries around it. How much of a
:17:19. > :17:29.step change is it, the deployment of the anti-missile defences on the
:17:29. > :17:33.Turkish border? I think it is a very strong, symbolic and actual
:17:33. > :17:40.expression of NATO support for turkey. But also of the way in
:17:40. > :17:43.which the west wants to keep the pressure on Syria. It is another
:17:43. > :17:48.sign of pressure. Turkey isn't far from being in a state of war with
:17:48. > :17:51.Syria, the way things have been deteriorating between them. And
:17:51. > :17:56.Turkey actively helps the armed opposition. So they have intervened
:17:56. > :18:01.in the civil war here. So, I think that the deployment of those
:18:01. > :18:04.missiles, it is a sign of resolve from the point of view of NATO and
:18:04. > :18:12.Turkey. But the regime here itself, in a sense, already knew that, it
:18:12. > :18:17.has just been drummed home a little bit more.
:18:17. > :18:20.We have the Turkish ambassador to the UK. On the question of chemical
:18:20. > :18:23.weapons, do you believe he has a big arsenal of weapons? That is
:18:23. > :18:27.what the international community and all the major actors are afraid
:18:27. > :18:31.of. These kinds of regimes are unaccountable, since they are
:18:31. > :18:36.unaccountable, you don't know what the size of their arms are, and
:18:36. > :18:40.what they have in stock. So, I don't think that anybody is ready
:18:40. > :18:45.to take any risks. Every sign, and every signal is trying to be given
:18:45. > :18:51.to the regime that they should not dare use those.
:18:51. > :18:57.To what extent does that reflect in the NATO build-up along the border?
:18:57. > :19:02.NATO-build up is showing solidarity with Turkey, because NATO is a
:19:02. > :19:06.collective organisation, and it is only for the defensive purposes of
:19:06. > :19:11.the tuarkish territory, not for any kind of -- Turkish territory, not
:19:11. > :19:14.for any defensive mess measure, because that would be against the
:19:14. > :19:21.patriot missile centres. Patriot missiles are going to be used, if
:19:21. > :19:24.they are going to be used, to intercept any kind of aggression
:19:24. > :19:28.eminating from Syria into the Turkish territory. Which would, of
:19:28. > :19:34.course, anybody a kind of missile attack, that is the reason why
:19:34. > :19:39.patriots are deployed. Getting ahead of ourselves a minute, if
:19:39. > :19:47.President Assad falls, do you think that the greatest likelihood would
:19:47. > :19:52.be a NATO mission? Into Syria, including tuarkish troops? That
:19:52. > :19:57.requires inter-- Turkish troops? That requires international
:19:57. > :20:02.legitimacy, that can only be gained through the Security Council. I
:20:02. > :20:07.can't see without a Security Council legitimacy that kind of
:20:07. > :20:13.intervention taking place. As far as Turkey is concerned, if it was
:20:13. > :20:18.approved, your troops would go in? Turkey would not act unilaterally.
:20:18. > :20:22.If it was the will of NATO? It is a hypothetical situation, I don't
:20:22. > :20:26.want to make any comments. What do you think Russia's role should be
:20:26. > :20:32.now, in terms of edging out President Assad? I think Russia is
:20:32. > :20:42.trying to reach out to the regime, and trying to make them understand
:20:42. > :20:44.
:20:44. > :20:47.that now it is time to bring change to the existing system. And Russia
:20:47. > :20:51.knows it can't continue with Assad and the ray geem can't continue
:20:51. > :20:58.killing its own people -- regime can't continue killing its people.
:20:58. > :21:02.You heard Jeremy Bowen saying that what the regime could be banking on
:21:02. > :21:10.is the disparate opposition, one that you helped train and arm, and
:21:10. > :21:16.without a credible lead figure in the opposition they can continue
:21:16. > :21:19.all the condition. I disagree with Turkey training the army. Turkey
:21:19. > :21:23.has given political support for the opposition. From this point of view,
:21:23. > :21:26.we have tried to bring the opposition forces together under an
:21:26. > :21:30.umbrella organisation. We have always said it would be necessary
:21:30. > :21:35.to be represented in this umbrella organisation, without any
:21:35. > :21:39.discrimination as to ethnicity, religion or sect. That is what has
:21:39. > :21:46.been achieved, actually, that there is a Syrian national coalition, and
:21:46. > :21:51.this, in a way, embraces all the political forces, Turkey has not
:21:51. > :21:55.been assisting to the oppositions with arms. Training camps? These
:21:55. > :21:59.are refugee camps, I have to underline this, it is a serious
:22:00. > :22:03.burden for Turkey, because currently we have some 130,000
:22:03. > :22:07.refugees in Turkey, in different caps, along the Turkish Syrian
:22:07. > :22:12.border, in addition to that, there are Syrians living in cities out of
:22:12. > :22:16.the camps. What is your hunch, do you think
:22:16. > :22:22.President Assad will stay and fight to the death, or do you think he
:22:22. > :22:28.would leave the country? That is what he said, but it is easier to
:22:28. > :22:32.say than it is easier to be done. I had the impression that the Syrian
:22:32. > :22:37.regime is realising that it is approaching a very critical
:22:37. > :22:42.decision, and I think as longly as they can give the decision it will
:22:42. > :22:48.be the best for the Syrian people's future.
:22:48. > :22:52.Six years ago a young man called Mark Blanco, plunged to his death
:22:52. > :22:56.from a first floor balcony after being at a party with the rock star,
:22:56. > :22:59.Pete Doherty, and some friends. The coroner ruled out suicide, three
:22:59. > :23:04.police investigations have failed to find out what really did happen.
:23:04. > :23:08.Now, forensics experts in Britain and the US, have examined the CCTV
:23:08. > :23:14.evidence for Newsnight, and their initial findings suggest Mark
:23:14. > :23:23.Blanco was probably dropped to his death. We have been examining the
:23:23. > :23:27.case over the last eight months. It is just after midnight on a
:23:27. > :23:31.Saturday night, and a young man, in high spirits, arrives in East
:23:31. > :23:36.London. He's hoping to wile away the small hours here with friends.
:23:36. > :23:41.Within minutes he will lie dying, here he is captured on CCTV,
:23:41. > :23:46.plunging from a first floor balcony, minutes earlier he had been
:23:46. > :23:50.haranguing the singer, Pete Doherty, here is Mr Pete Doherty with others
:23:50. > :23:54.running from the scene. What happened, and why has the police
:23:54. > :24:02.investigation failed? I knew as soon as I saw him that it was
:24:02. > :24:05.really bad, he had, his pupils were fixed. It is very consistent with
:24:05. > :24:10.someone being carried and literally dropped over the edge of the
:24:10. > :24:17.balcony. It is like a bad dream, it started
:24:17. > :24:23.and has gone on and on. It needs to be laid to rest.
:24:23. > :24:33.You are convinced that Mark was the victim of foul play? Yes. I am,
:24:33. > :24:38.
:24:38. > :24:42.absolutely convinced. Mark Blanco was a talented man,
:24:43. > :24:46.Cambridge educated, with a quick brain and a zest for life. In
:24:46. > :24:51.December 2006, he was about to launch a fresh career, as an actor.
:24:51. > :24:55.It was a big time for all of us, especially Mark. It was the first
:24:55. > :24:59.theatre production we were putting on, from The George Tavern, it was
:24:59. > :25:08.something I always wanted to do, put on a play. And Mark had known
:25:08. > :25:14.this. He came up with the play, The dental Death of an scan anarchist.
:25:14. > :25:19.He had the star role and he was really good. It was just after
:25:19. > :25:25.midnight when he arrived at Fieldgate Mansions in Whitechapel,
:25:25. > :25:28.he was drinking and in a buoyant mood. He goes into a flat of a man
:25:28. > :25:32.well known for using hard drugs, his name is Paul Roundhill. Friends
:25:32. > :25:39.would come and visit me, that was the only way I had a social life,
:25:39. > :25:44.was people coming to me. That is how the sort of saloon emerged.
:25:44. > :25:48.Saloon? That is, I like to think of it as a literary saloon, and
:25:48. > :25:51.creative, I was consciously trying to work with multimedia and
:25:51. > :25:57.collaberate with other artists. was called a crack den, you know
:25:57. > :26:01.that? I know the papers called it a crack den. Was it a crack den?
:26:01. > :26:08.may have seemed like that at times. Because there was crack going on in
:26:08. > :26:12.there? Well, I, you know, I, I had a problem with drugs, yeah.
:26:12. > :26:16.12.15 we see Pete Doherty arrive with a girlfriend, once inside he
:26:16. > :26:22.was seized on by Mark Blanco. The actor wanted the rock star to come
:26:22. > :26:28.to his play, another guest describes him as persistent. He was
:26:28. > :26:33.very, you know, passionate about his play, and he wanted to impress
:26:33. > :26:41.that upon Peter, but because he was drunk it came across as being quite
:26:41. > :26:48.aggressive. Peter was sort of pinned up against the fireplace at
:26:48. > :26:55.one point, and you know, that was when the sort of, everything
:26:55. > :27:00.started to go quite wrong. Which is why I took the very extreme step of,
:27:01. > :27:06.his tweed cap was on the table, I put some lighter fuel on it, and
:27:06. > :27:13.set fire to it. It didn't burn because just the lighter fuel.
:27:13. > :27:18.To try to get him to turn around. It felt very nasty. Just because of
:27:18. > :27:23.the, you know, the measures that people were going to try to get
:27:23. > :27:27.Mark's attention, I thought were unnecessary. A bit bullying? I just
:27:27. > :27:31.thought, you know, it is a very difficult to sit and sort of watch
:27:31. > :27:35.something like that and, you know, it is just not nice, to see
:27:35. > :27:39.anything like that going on. But the atmosphere had changed. There
:27:39. > :27:44.were lots of drugs around? There were drugs around, every night in
:27:44. > :27:53.that flat. That night was no exception. Doherty appealed to his
:27:53. > :27:58.minder, Johnny 'Headlock' Jeannevol, known as HeadLock, and others to
:27:58. > :28:03.come to his aid. He was drunk and we threw him out of the house, and
:28:03. > :28:06.he went out of the house. I said, right, Mark, time to to go, I
:28:06. > :28:09.grabbed him by the lapels, pulled him the length of the flat, as I
:28:09. > :28:17.opened the door and tried to push him out, he had his hands on the
:28:17. > :28:21.jams like this, I tried to aim some punches at his face to get him out.
:28:21. > :28:26.Less than 15 minutes after arriving, Mark Blanco was back outside. He
:28:26. > :28:32.walks away, but then has seconds thoughts. We see him go back inside
:28:32. > :28:38.the building. What happened in the next 57 seconds is crucial and
:28:38. > :28:43.fatal for Mark Blanco. The next time we see him he appears over the
:28:43. > :28:47.railings of that communal balcony, and from a height of 14 feet he
:28:47. > :28:52.seems to drop, head first to the ground. The guests in Paul
:28:52. > :28:55.Roundhill's flat above, all say they were unaware that Mark Blanco
:28:55. > :28:59.returned to the building. It is a further 12 minutes that they are
:28:59. > :29:02.alerting that Mark Blanco is dying on the pavement below.
:29:02. > :29:07.-- alerted that Mark Blanco is dying on the pavement below.
:29:07. > :29:10.wanted to help, and go and see if Mark was OK. I went downstairs
:29:10. > :29:14.immediately. Pete Doherty left the scene, he's seen running away.
:29:14. > :29:22.Peter had walked down the stairs and seen how badly injured Mark was,
:29:22. > :29:32.he was very shocked and upset about it. I kept saying to him, Peter
:29:32. > :29:36.please, just go. It's OK. He said "it's not F-ing all right, it's not
:29:36. > :29:45.all right", he got very upset, and that's when he left.
:29:45. > :29:48.Mark Blanco was taken to hospital, he died the next day. I have had to
:29:48. > :29:55.do it as I go along. If you get behind a few months, then you
:29:55. > :29:59.really have a lot of paperwork and it all has to be sorted out. Sheila
:30:00. > :30:03.Blanco spent the last six years, at least �60,000 and every waking hour
:30:03. > :30:06.trying to find out what happened to her son. She keeps everything,
:30:06. > :30:09.police reports, medical files and legal transcripts, she does it,
:30:09. > :30:15.because from the start, she has been unhappy with the police
:30:15. > :30:20.investigation. When Mark died, the same day, in the afternoon, I was
:30:20. > :30:26.taken, by the police, to those flats, and when I came down from
:30:26. > :30:33.the second or third balcony, I saw Mark's lens glistening in the
:30:33. > :30:39.gutter. His lens? His lens from his glasses. It hadn't been taken away?
:30:39. > :30:43.It hadn't, and the policeman bent down as did I, and he gave it to me
:30:43. > :30:49.as a keeps sake. What did you think? My blood started to run cold,
:30:49. > :30:54.I thought from then I was going to have 0 -- to have, perhaps an
:30:54. > :31:00.uphill battle with the pli. police -- The police. The police
:31:00. > :31:05.got off on the wrong foot, and then the chief investigating officer
:31:05. > :31:12.said he thought that Mark had committed suicide. He did agree
:31:12. > :31:18.that he was 99% sure he committed suicide, and that his brother had
:31:18. > :31:22.died the same way. He said he was trying to empathise with the family.
:31:22. > :31:26.And his judgment wasn't affected. The notion of suicide, always
:31:26. > :31:32.rejected by Mark Blanco's family and friends, looked less realistic
:31:32. > :31:36.once Johnny Headlock, Pete Doherty's minder, had walked into a
:31:36. > :31:40.police station, and said, he had killed Mark Blanco. The reason I
:31:40. > :31:44.said to the police that I had did it, because I would go out and
:31:44. > :31:49.stuff and people would say, you murderer, and this that, and the
:31:49. > :31:52.stress of too much. I sat down and I thought about it, and said, I
:31:52. > :31:57.would phone the police. confessed because people were
:31:57. > :32:01.saying that you did it? It was because the stress, people telling
:32:01. > :32:08.me, and the cocaine was a major factor. People were telling me you
:32:08. > :32:14.did this, this, this, after a while I'm like taking it on board. If you
:32:14. > :32:17.say BEEP I will take it on board, and I will think and think and
:32:17. > :32:21.think. You actually thought you had done it at one point? I didn't
:32:21. > :32:26.think I did it, I know I didn't do it, we know what happened, you know.
:32:26. > :32:33.What did happen? Nothing, nothing from our point of view. Mark was
:32:33. > :32:37.drunk, we threw him out of the house, and then he went out of the
:32:37. > :32:40.house sort of thing. People think you threw him off the balcony?
:32:40. > :32:48.know, people can believe what they want, I know the truth, my
:32:48. > :32:51.conscience is clear. At the coroner's court, this
:32:51. > :32:56.confession, which was retracted almost immediately, and the fact
:32:56. > :33:06.that Mark Blanco had had been punched, only emerged during cross-
:33:06. > :33:09.examination by the Blanco's lawyer. I'm curious, you have a man going
:33:09. > :33:15.into another police station who confessed to the killing. That was
:33:15. > :33:19.no part of the account presented. The coroner wasn't impressed?
:33:19. > :33:24.don't know, he certainly wasn't impressed by the fact that the
:33:24. > :33:28.confession was omitted, ore the fact that Roundhill's -- or the
:33:28. > :33:33.fact that Roundhill's assault on Mark was omitted, and the theory
:33:33. > :33:36.that the whom police investigation was based that this was suicide or
:33:36. > :33:40.accident. The coroner ruled out suicide, recorded an open verdict
:33:40. > :33:44.and told the police to reinvestigate. After a further 18
:33:44. > :33:50.months they concluded that either Mark jumped without meaning to harm
:33:50. > :33:55.himself, or he had been the victim of a criminal act.
:33:56. > :34:01.Mark Blanco's friends said the idea that this confirmed athlete, who
:34:01. > :34:04.wore socks on the beach, would jump as some sort of stunt, is ludicrous,
:34:04. > :34:08.they believe someone deliberately put him over the balcony. The
:34:08. > :34:12.police say in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence,
:34:13. > :34:18.they have little hope of finding the truth. Four years after the
:34:18. > :34:20.death, Paul Roundhill, Johnny Headlock and Pete Doherty were
:34:20. > :34:22.interviewed under caution, they were in the flat. The Crown
:34:23. > :34:27.Prosecution Service concluded there was insufficient evidence for any
:34:27. > :34:31.prosecution. The morning Mark Blanco died, Pete
:34:31. > :34:36.Doherty appeared in court on an unrelated drugs charge. His musical
:34:36. > :34:41.career has been interspersed with prison and rehab.
:34:41. > :34:45.Recently he has been appearing at small clubs in London.
:34:45. > :34:49.It is getting on for six months since I asked Pete Doherty to give
:34:49. > :34:53.his side of the story of what happened to Mark Blanco. He's here
:34:53. > :34:56.tonight and we are getting a message from his manager that in
:34:56. > :34:59.fact Pete has decided himself he doesn't want to speak to us. But he
:34:59. > :35:09.has always maintained he had had nothing to do with Mark Blanco's
:35:09. > :35:14.death. In The police have said the CCTV
:35:14. > :35:17.evidence is of poor quality and inconclusive. But Newsnight has
:35:17. > :35:22.consulted video forensics experts, who believe there is far more here
:35:23. > :35:28.than meets the untrained eye. John Kennedy has testified in scores of
:35:28. > :35:32.cases in the UK and overseas. experience tells me from looking at
:35:32. > :35:37.these type of images for many, many years now, that it is not
:35:37. > :35:44.consistent with a jump, it is not consistent with a fall, he just
:35:44. > :35:50.simply drops. There is no evidence of any body movement to suggest
:35:50. > :35:54.that he is trying to break his fall or something like that. There is no
:35:54. > :35:57.defensive movement? None whatsoever, it is literally a drop from outside
:35:57. > :36:02.the railing. The only explanation I can think of that someone might
:36:02. > :36:05.have dropped him off the balcony, right. He doesn't climb over the
:36:05. > :36:13.railing himself, he doesn't jump, he just suddenly appears outside
:36:13. > :36:17.the railing and falling. suggestion of no defensive injuries,
:36:17. > :36:25.consistent with unconsciousness, is in line with a biomechanics
:36:25. > :36:30.investigation, and a neurobuy kolgists report, --
:36:30. > :36:35.neurobiologist's report, both commissioned by Sheila Blanco. This
:36:35. > :36:39.man lectures at the FBI, his initial analysis is startling.
:36:39. > :36:43.examining the video activity in the top righthand corner. It is clear
:36:43. > :36:49.that somebody moves out from inside the building, when the person moves
:36:49. > :36:54.out from the building, there is a lot of mass in front of that
:36:54. > :36:59.individual. That mass suggests that there is more than one person. It
:36:59. > :37:03.is very consistent with somebody being carried out, and literally
:37:03. > :37:07.dropped over the edge of the balcony. So, what we are not seeing
:37:08. > :37:13.is anything that would support that somebody ran and dove or jumped,
:37:13. > :37:20.because the activity doesn't support an upward movement, it
:37:20. > :37:26.supports someone coming out and dropping someone off the edge.
:37:26. > :37:30.experts say these are preliminary findings, and what is need is more
:37:30. > :37:33.tests, but they believe it will confirm their views. The Blanco's
:37:33. > :37:36.barrister say this is a turning point. This is a great difference,
:37:36. > :37:40.this should ignite the enthusiasm of the police to investigate this
:37:40. > :37:44.properly. Mark, who doesn't make any defensive gestures, as any
:37:45. > :37:48.normal, conscious person would do, Mark is dropped, or thrown off that
:37:48. > :37:52.balcony. And someone was there. think the case should be re-opened?
:37:53. > :37:57.Of course it should be re-opened. It is not too late. All those who
:37:57. > :38:07.were in Paul Roundhill's flat have said they didn't come down to the
:38:07. > :38:08.
:38:08. > :38:11.communal balcony until after Mark Blanco went over. Sheila Blanco is
:38:11. > :38:16.now into her seventh year trying to find out what happened to her son.
:38:16. > :38:22.She's not giving up. My resolve now is even stronger
:38:22. > :38:26.than it was. It is in equal measure to the outrageousness to the way
:38:26. > :38:36.that Mark's death has been treated. The whole case needs revisiting
:38:36. > :38:37.
:38:37. > :38:43.very, very seriously. The truth will out.
:38:43. > :38:49.40 years ago tomorrow, the crew of Apollo 17blasd off for the last
:38:49. > :38:54.scheduled manned commission to -- blasted off for the last scheduled
:38:54. > :38:58.manned mission to the moon. Many then thought in this many years we
:38:58. > :39:01.would be living there. But despite all the space exploration, no crew
:39:01. > :39:06.has been back. A commercial company has made the bold claim that it
:39:06. > :39:12.will offer the paying public the chance to land in the moon -- land
:39:12. > :39:22.on the moon by the end of the decade. That is one small step for
:39:22. > :39:25.
:39:25. > :39:30.man, one giant leap for mankind. July 1969, Neil Armstrong became
:39:30. > :39:35.the first man to set foot on the moon. During the next three years,
:39:35. > :39:40.12 men touched down on the lunar surface, collecting precious
:39:40. > :39:46.samples, that changed our ideas about how the earth was formed.
:39:46. > :39:50.We're on our way. 40 years ago the crew of Apollo 17, waved goodbye to
:39:50. > :39:54.the moon for the last time. Now the idea of manned trips to the moon
:39:54. > :39:59.seem, well, extravagant. China has plans to do it t and NASA wants to,
:39:59. > :40:03.but says it doesn't have the money. A small step for space travel, one
:40:03. > :40:09.giant leap for privately-owned commercial enterprise. But the
:40:09. > :40:14.private sector is getting ready to blast off. �870 million could soon
:40:15. > :40:21.by you two return tickets to make the trip yourself.
:40:22. > :40:28.The salesman is with us, the co- founder of Golden Spike. Good
:40:28. > :40:33.evening. First of all, have you got a waiting list? I can't tell you we
:40:33. > :40:37.have a waiting list at this point, but we have reached out to more
:40:37. > :40:41.than one prospective customer, and received some positive interest.
:40:41. > :40:46.You mentioned whether we are going to be paying, sending the paying
:40:46. > :40:52.public to the moon, that is not exactly our business model.
:40:52. > :40:56.Although that could happen at some point. Our target customer is the
:40:56. > :41:00.space agencies and science agencies of foreign Governments. So, wait a
:41:00. > :41:03.minute, what we are talking about here, is Government countries
:41:03. > :41:08.hoping to get a toe hold in the moon, for whatever reason, using
:41:08. > :41:15.your commercial, what will it be, the space shuttle or will it look
:41:15. > :41:17.different? It will look a lot more like The Apollo-era rather than the
:41:18. > :41:21.space shuttle. You are right about human decision not having been to
:41:21. > :41:25.the moon in 40 years, but we have learned a heck of a lot in those 40
:41:25. > :41:31.years about humans surviving in space and the equipment necessary
:41:31. > :41:40.to travel in space. What The Golden Calf team has done is formulate an
:41:40. > :41:46.-- the Golden Spike team is formulate a process on all that has
:41:46. > :41:49.made human space flight possible in the last 40 years, and combine that
:41:49. > :41:57.with the emerging technologies available from companies such as
:41:57. > :42:03.Space Exploration Corporation and United Launch Alliance. Give us the
:42:03. > :42:09.perspective, three days to get there and how long when you are up
:42:09. > :42:17.there, do people have to do good things for mankind, what will
:42:17. > :42:21.happen up there? The duration of the lunar mission under the Golden
:42:21. > :42:24.Spike architecture, will be comparable to The Apollo programme.
:42:24. > :42:28.What we envisage being accomplished on the moon is science. You mention
:42:28. > :42:32.the moon rocks taken back. It will be commercial? The science that
:42:32. > :42:36.could be conducted by those on those moon rocks really just
:42:36. > :42:40.scratched the surface about what we know of the moon's composition, and
:42:40. > :42:48.therefore, what we know about the formation of the earth. So it is
:42:48. > :42:51.actually commercial. We are talking about, $1.4 billion, �800 million,
:42:51. > :42:54.people will really think this is something they can reap the reward
:42:54. > :42:59.of when they get up there, major commercial, mineral, whatever, to
:42:59. > :43:04.spend that kind of money? At some point we think there will be a
:43:04. > :43:08.commercial market for our customer, such as mining water for more
:43:08. > :43:11.expansive space exploration and helium 3. But, again, we think that
:43:11. > :43:17.the near-term market will be from foreign space agencies, who right
:43:17. > :43:22.now are paying hundreds of millions of dollars, if not a billion-plus
:43:22. > :43:26.dollars, just to conduct robotic science in orbit around the moon
:43:26. > :43:30.and the lunar surface. All of the scientific community agrees you can
:43:30. > :43:34.achieve a greater degree of science with people having boots on the
:43:34. > :43:38.moon. Can you just give us a sense of who this prospective early
:43:38. > :43:42.customer might be, it wouldn't be India hoping to get there before
:43:43. > :43:46.Pakistan? We are not mentioning the names of any of our perspective
:43:46. > :43:51.customers city point. We can tell you we have reached out to two
:43:51. > :43:56.Government space agencies, other than NASA, and they have both
:43:56. > :43:59.expressed interest, and we have many more on our list, based on the
:43:59. > :44:03.market research we have done over the last two years, who we think,
:44:03. > :44:07.based on the expenditures they have made for lunar science in the past,
:44:07. > :44:12.would be very interested in spending $1.4 billion to spend
:44:12. > :44:17.scientists to the moon. Presumably there might be a discount on offer
:44:17. > :44:20.to get there early and get you off the ground. When will you make the
:44:20. > :44:25.first flight? We are looking at that within the decade, a flight to
:44:25. > :44:33.the surface of moon, and orbital missions prior to that. Have a good
:44:33. > :44:42.flight, thank you very much indeed. Tomorrow morning's front pages now:
:44:42. > :44:52.On the Financial Times there is a story saying Starbucks will be
:44:52. > :44:52.
:44:52. > :45:35.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 42 seconds
:45:35. > :45:44.Tonight we leave you with some of the works of the great Brazilian
:45:44. > :45:54.architect, Oscar Nemire, who has died before his 105th birthday. He
:45:54. > :45:54.
:45:54. > :45:59.said he was inspired by the curves # Long and lovely
:45:59. > :46:02.# The girl from Impanema goes walking
:46:02. > :46:05.# When she passes # She passes
:46:05. > :46:09.# She goes by # When she walks
:46:09. > :46:14.# Just like a samba # That swings so cool
:46:14. > :46:20.# And sways so gently PC when she passes
:46:20. > :46:30.Each one she passes goes # Ahhh
:46:30. > :46:32.
:46:32. > :46:36.# Oh but A cold start to the day, frost and
:46:36. > :46:39.icey patches around, rain and sleet and snow in parts of East Anglia
:46:39. > :46:42.and the south-east. Grey for eastern England and Scotland, right
:46:42. > :46:46.the way through the day, with a good scattering of showers. A
:46:46. > :46:50.strong wind coming down from the north. Temperatures only five or so
:46:50. > :46:53.degrees, add on the wind and it will feel raw out there. Some
:46:53. > :46:57.sunshine to be found for the southern counties of England. A
:46:57. > :47:00.nice afternoon with sunshine, top temperatures only seven or eight,
:47:01. > :47:04.and the keen breeze coming from the north. It will feel cold in spite
:47:04. > :47:08.of the sunshine. Not completely dry, showers dotted around in Wales, one
:47:08. > :47:10.or two of those drifting towards the north coast of Devon and
:47:10. > :47:15.Cornwall. A dry afternoon in Northern Ireland, plenty of
:47:15. > :47:18.sunshine, again, a cold feel to things, particularly in that breeze,
:47:18. > :47:22.some sunshine too for western Scotland, chilly. The north and
:47:22. > :47:25.east of Scotland sees thicker cloud, showers around some of those,
:47:25. > :47:29.wintery over the hills. As we get towards the start of the weekend.
:47:29. > :47:33.Something of a north-south split develops, the northern half of the
:47:33. > :47:37.UK sees cloud around, rain crossing Scotland, further south, after a
:47:37. > :47:42.cold start to the day on Saturday a good deal of sunshine, nothing for