:00:14. > :00:17.Tonight, who do we think we are? The latest census data released
:00:17. > :00:22.today paints an extraordinary picture of the people living in
:00:22. > :00:26.England and Wales. Around a quarter say they have no religious faith,
:00:26. > :00:30.7.5 million were born abroad, and 15% of us now rent our homes, way
:00:30. > :00:32.up on ten years ago. We will be assessing what these
:00:33. > :00:38.demographic changes tell us about the country we have become, and how
:00:38. > :00:41.the years of austerity, immigration and homeownership patterns will
:00:41. > :00:43.affect our social cohesion and tolerance of others for years to
:00:43. > :00:51.come. Also tonight, as Syria's bloody
:00:51. > :00:57.civil war goes on, what of the country's chemical weapons arsenal,
:00:58. > :01:02.what do they have and how could they use it and what does it mean
:01:03. > :01:06.to groups like Al-Qaeda. As the regime to theers the US and others
:01:06. > :01:12.are thinking totters, the US and others are thinking seriously about
:01:12. > :01:17.what it might take to secure those issues.
:01:17. > :01:21.Quentin Blake, and much beloved by children of all ages has an
:01:21. > :01:31.exhibition. His work is everywhere, and copied so many times by other
:01:31. > :01:35.
:01:35. > :01:40.people, it is part of the culture Good evening, in Roman times a
:01:40. > :01:47.census had one purpose, to find out how many young men might be fit for
:01:47. > :01:52.military service. Now, every ten years it is to help planners and
:01:52. > :01:57.others find facts to help us with the country. Today's census results
:01:57. > :02:02.show more of us are atheist and more born abroad, and more of us
:02:02. > :02:07.behinding the dream of finding and owning your own home impossible to
:02:07. > :02:13.achieve. We will find out more. But first, the key points.
:02:13. > :02:17.This is the story of the decade. From the end of new Labour to days
:02:17. > :02:21.and dates we will never forget. From winning the Olympics to
:02:21. > :02:26.economic meltdown. From a national celebration, to
:02:26. > :02:31.riots on the streets of our biggest cities.
:02:31. > :02:35.The latest census shows, beyond any doubt, we are now in the middle of
:02:35. > :02:38.an astonishing era of demographic change. Some of hour high streets
:02:38. > :02:44.now look very different, unrecoginsable, even, from the same
:02:44. > :02:48.streets a decade ago. That picture is being changed
:02:48. > :02:52.dramatically by migration. Just one in six of the people who live here,
:02:52. > :02:56.in East London, now describe themselves as white British. The
:02:56. > :03:02.same trend is happening to a lesser extent, in towns and cities across
:03:02. > :03:07.England and Wales. Overall, this is becoming a more
:03:07. > :03:11.populate and -- populated and far more diverse country. A series of
:03:11. > :03:14.regional maps map, published today, show in detail how this is
:03:14. > :03:17.happening. Take religion, in 2001, more than three-quarters of the
:03:17. > :03:21.population, in large swathes of England and Wales, described
:03:21. > :03:25.themselves as Christian. Ten years later, that number has fallen
:03:25. > :03:31.sharply, replaced largely by a rise in people who say they have no
:03:31. > :03:36.religion at all, up from 15% to 25%. The most visible change, though,
:03:36. > :03:40.has been in the ethnic make-up of many of our towns and cities. The
:03:40. > :03:44.number decribing themselves as white fell below 90%, for the first
:03:44. > :03:49.time. One in eight households is now made up of people from more
:03:49. > :03:53.than one ethnic group. There are though wide regional variations.
:03:53. > :03:58.The capital is the only region, where the group described as white
:03:58. > :04:01.British, is now a minority, at 45%, for the first time since records
:04:01. > :04:08.began. Overall, the number of foreign-born
:04:08. > :04:16.citizens has increased from 4.5 million, to 7.5 million, over the
:04:16. > :04:20.decade. The number of Poless have gone from 57,000 back in 2001, to
:04:20. > :04:24.more than 500,000 ten years later. When we look at the overall
:04:24. > :04:29.foreign-born population we see 40% are living in London, according to
:04:29. > :04:32.the figures. For the Polish-born population it is only 27%. Nearly
:04:32. > :04:36.three-quarters of Polish-born people in England and Wales are
:04:36. > :04:38.outside of London. This means they are living in areas that have
:04:38. > :04:42.experienced less migration in the past, which has significant
:04:42. > :04:46.implications for the way the country has experienced migration
:04:46. > :04:49.in the past decade. Then, there is the impact of
:04:49. > :04:54.economic change on our society. At a time when the number of people
:04:54. > :04:58.living in big cities, like London and man chest e has been rising,
:04:58. > :05:04.some industrial towns in the North West have seen a sharp fall in
:05:04. > :05:08.their populations. And the regional also illustrate as
:05:08. > :05:13.change in our work patterns, this map shows how the number of people
:05:13. > :05:19.in a part-time job has risen between 2001 and ten years later,
:05:19. > :05:23.in 2011. A sharp increase in almost every part of England and Wales.
:05:23. > :05:28.And there has been a big shift in where and how we live. Fewer of us
:05:28. > :05:31.are matter yod than a decade ago and for the -- married than a
:05:32. > :05:35.decade ago, and for the first time, more say they have a degree than
:05:35. > :05:39.have no qualification. The figures show a significant rise in the
:05:39. > :05:44.number of people who rent their home from a private landlord. Up
:05:44. > :05:54.from 9% ten years ago to 15%. And, as you might expect, a drop in the
:05:54. > :06:01.
:06:01. > :06:06.really rapid rise in private renting, it is a really stark drop
:06:06. > :06:11.in the number of people who have got mortgages. It is kind of moving
:06:11. > :06:14.us back in time. To a time when, I mean there was a time when the
:06:14. > :06:19.majority of the population rented privately, it is moving us back
:06:19. > :06:23.over who will end up owning their own home. That, seeing the speed of
:06:23. > :06:27.that change, that was the biggest shock for me this morning locking
:06:27. > :06:31.at the numbers that game - -- looking at the numbers that game in.
:06:31. > :06:35.The rise in part-time working and the increase in private renting s
:06:35. > :06:41.more to do with the economy at the moment, than any major change in
:06:41. > :06:44.the trend of society. But there are big implications in this data for
:06:44. > :06:49.housing, health and social care policy. When we look back at the
:06:49. > :06:54.decade, it may well be that it is required, not just for the credit
:06:54. > :06:59.crunch, nor winning the Olympics, nor coalition Government. Instead,
:06:59. > :07:01.it may be the time when our country became a much more diverse place to
:07:02. > :07:08.live. Interesting though all this is,
:07:08. > :07:14.does it actually matter. Daniel Knowles is the Britain comors pond
:07:14. > :07:16.dent for the Economist, AC Grayling is master of the college of
:07:17. > :07:21.humanties, and we have Germaine Greer, broadcaster and playwright,
:07:21. > :07:27.one of those who is counted as born abroad, and deputy chair of the
:07:27. > :07:34.British Museum. When you walked the streets of London, do you think it
:07:35. > :07:39.matters that those regarded as white British are in a minority
:07:39. > :07:43.will matter to them, and in the last ten years with three million
:07:44. > :07:49.for moreen-born people in the UK, they will have -- foreign-born
:07:49. > :07:52.people in the UK, they will notice that the Government has not said
:07:52. > :07:55.what -- done what they will say they. Do we have had Government
:07:55. > :07:57.after Government saying they want to limit mass immigration, we have
:07:57. > :08:02.seen they have not, now it is official. Do you think, when you
:08:02. > :08:07.walk the streets of London, do you actually notice, day by day, this
:08:07. > :08:15.is a snapshot of a year ago and ten years ago, do you think day by day
:08:15. > :08:19.that people notice that white Britains are in a minority? London
:08:19. > :08:22.-- London is the least interesting, London has had the least change in
:08:22. > :08:30.terms of minority growth. Where it is interesting is outside of London,
:08:30. > :08:40.it is on the outskirts of London. Inner London was at 35% non-chiet
:08:40. > :08:42.
:08:42. > :08:45.and, sor -- non-white, sorry, for foreign born. There are other parts
:08:45. > :08:48.of the country that have doubled and tripled. If that is the case
:08:48. > :08:53.and it is in different places all over the country, does it matter
:08:53. > :08:56.that it makes us a more tolerant country because we resent it or
:08:56. > :09:00.more tolerant because we mix with people? I think we have become a
:09:00. > :09:03.more tolerant country. Ten years ago we had a problem that minority
:09:03. > :09:09.groups in this country were very much concentrated heavily in London,
:09:09. > :09:13.and a few other industrial cities, and other places. But, they are now
:09:14. > :09:19.much more spread out. So there are far fewer white British people who
:09:19. > :09:22.have, you know, who don't have any experience at all of people from a
:09:22. > :09:27.different background. You can see that in the huge rise in the number
:09:27. > :09:32.of people from a mixed ethnicity background. There is now a million.
:09:33. > :09:37.It is 1.2 million, it has doubled in ten years. What is your take,
:09:37. > :09:41.does it matter, do you think people day by day notice it, they notice
:09:41. > :09:45.it now because we are talking about the census? I live in the West End,
:09:45. > :09:48.not far from this studio, I can see exactly what the demographic is
:09:48. > :09:51.talking about. People are living their lives, I don't think it
:09:51. > :09:53.matters to anybody at all. It is interesting to have it brought up.
:09:54. > :09:59.But if you are talking about where I live, which is around Oxford
:09:59. > :10:04.Street, no, that is the way it look. London's a port, it is always an
:10:04. > :10:07.entry for people. As was suggested, it is spreading out throughout the
:10:07. > :10:12.country s is the best of the country looking forward to that
:10:12. > :10:15.kind of future, for good or ill? wonder if people think about their
:10:15. > :10:17.future in the day-to-day. This is the reality of life, this is what
:10:17. > :10:21.it is, and I think that is how people are living.
:10:21. > :10:25.What do you make of that change for the culture of the country, as a
:10:25. > :10:29.whole, do you think there is a down side to it, or do you think it is
:10:29. > :10:34.all positive in a sense that we may become more tolerant? On the whole
:10:34. > :10:38.it is a very positive thing. To be celebrated. What we have now is
:10:38. > :10:42.even greater, consciousness of the diversity of the world of which we
:10:42. > :10:46.are an important part. This is globalisation coming to roost at
:10:46. > :10:51.home, in a way. And a very good thing it is too. I think what is
:10:51. > :10:54.rather strike striking about it, because London has always been a
:10:54. > :11:01.great centre for all sorts of people, all sorts of foods, all
:11:01. > :11:06.sorts of cultural traditions, music, the arts. That has made it possible
:11:06. > :11:09.for people elsewhere in the down think much more positively about
:11:09. > :11:13.the possibilities for themselves. Having the role of being a host
:11:13. > :11:17.community for immigrants. The role of being a host community for
:11:17. > :11:21.immigrants, apart from the resentment, that you put your
:11:21. > :11:27.finger on, that people don't like it, is there a down side, is there
:11:27. > :11:31.something to point to, to say that it has made life worse? There is a
:11:31. > :11:35.down side for many people in this country who don't live in the West
:11:35. > :11:40.End minutes from the studio, or who share AC Grayling's feelings, they
:11:40. > :11:43.look at the country and look at it change immensely. I'm asking if
:11:43. > :11:46.there is anything you can put your finger on beyond of the fact that
:11:46. > :11:51.people resent it, people resent lots of things, is there something
:11:51. > :11:55.you can put your finger on and say it has changed for the worst?
:11:55. > :11:58.it has changed it, people have a better reason not to believe
:11:58. > :12:01.politicians of any main party after this decade. That is the point I
:12:01. > :12:04.wanted to make about resentment. The second thing, it is also
:12:04. > :12:09.important to remember that, you know, live in London as well,
:12:09. > :12:13.London, we're used to what the census today has shown us, and by
:12:13. > :12:17.and large we tend to be happy with it. It is not about whether I or
:12:17. > :12:21.any of you feel happy about this, but among other things what it has
:12:21. > :12:25.done to our country. One thing that really needs to be cussed on, is we
:12:25. > :12:29.need to -- focused on, is we need to look at the down side, in
:12:29. > :12:34.apartheid of unemployment and recession, foreign-born workers
:12:34. > :12:37.coming into Britain and taking jobs. Of course in many cases they are
:12:37. > :12:40.either highly-skilled people or people willing to perform jobs
:12:40. > :12:44.which people here are not willing to perform. These are people doing
:12:44. > :12:48.very important work. But, what happens when you import a working-
:12:48. > :12:53.class, the working-class become an underclass.
:12:53. > :12:57.But the problem is, that for policy maker, and politicians, and I'm
:12:57. > :13:01.calling the Obama-effect, people are not aware of the big change
:13:01. > :13:04.that is going on. They are not making policy that's reflecting the
:13:04. > :13:09.change in this country. This is all of the parties. They don't, and
:13:09. > :13:13.broadcasting as well, they don't reflect the way the country is.
:13:13. > :13:17.That affects the people, as you were saying, those people, not able
:13:17. > :13:20.to see the reality, of the way the country is changing. It cannot be
:13:20. > :13:24.stopped. So the question is, how is it going to be managed, and what
:13:24. > :13:28.kind of spirit is it going to be managed. That is the problem.
:13:28. > :13:32.you have been crunching the numbers today, the question of part-time
:13:32. > :13:36.working, and that has changed, that pattern has changed. And also the
:13:36. > :13:39.question of housing, the fact that many more of us now rent, does
:13:39. > :13:43.suggest that period of flux, that the past ten years have been a real
:13:43. > :13:48.sense of flux for many people, particularly in their 20s and 30s?
:13:48. > :13:52.Especially the last five years. You can see, we have reached a point
:13:52. > :13:57.now where nobody can really buy a house, in London, certainly unless
:13:57. > :14:00.they have help. The average age of unassisted first time buyer is
:14:00. > :14:04.going up and up and up. You have London boroughs where the average
:14:04. > :14:08.house prices is ten-times the average salary. So, yeah, that is
:14:08. > :14:13.kind of inevitable. I think that does go with the part-time. I think
:14:13. > :14:17.some of the part-time rises is probably due to more women going to
:14:17. > :14:21.work, which is probably a good thing. Some of it in the last few
:14:21. > :14:24.years insecurity. Does that insecurity make a more less rooted
:14:24. > :14:27.society, in a sense we don't feel the sense of aspiration, that
:14:27. > :14:32.people feel, that you can buy a house, this is something you can do.
:14:32. > :14:36.That may have gone and you may not get a full-time job either? I think
:14:36. > :14:40.property prices do constitute a serious problem for just that
:14:40. > :14:46.reason. Putting what is for our last generation, a major asset,
:14:46. > :14:51.right out of the reach of people who are struggling any way. It is a
:14:51. > :14:55.surprising thing to have happened in a way and needs a major
:14:55. > :14:58.readjustment, especially in London. This has to be addressed, I suppose,
:14:58. > :15:02.in part people are trying to address it by building more
:15:02. > :15:08.affordable house anything the inner city areas and brownfield sites and
:15:08. > :15:10.the like. That is not happening enough. If that changes your
:15:10. > :15:14.aspirations, in other words it was always something people had in
:15:14. > :15:19.their minds, if you work hard you can own your own home, that is a
:15:19. > :15:22.good thing, that has changed? an Anglo-Saxon idea, it is how
:15:22. > :15:26.Americans and the British see wealth and stability, in France and
:15:26. > :15:30.other places, there is not that much emphasis over bricks and
:15:30. > :15:34.mortar. In Germany more people rent than is considered normal?
:15:34. > :15:37.shift has a lot to do with the people coming in. We don't build in
:15:37. > :15:43.this country. I don't have any opinion on it one or the other, but
:15:43. > :15:45.we don't build. Is that the end of the Margaret Thatcher's dream of
:15:45. > :15:49.the property-owning democracy, where everybody can aspire to it,
:15:49. > :15:53.do you think people of your generation aspire to it or don't
:15:53. > :15:56.care? Everyone wants to own their own house, nobody can afford to in
:15:56. > :16:00.my generation, without having rich parents, which most of us don't
:16:00. > :16:04.have. I mean this is a baby-boomer thing, I don't know if the two of
:16:04. > :16:07.you probably do count as baby- boomers. But the baby-boomers had a
:16:07. > :16:10.great advantage, they had great luck with property, it made the
:16:10. > :16:14.generation rich. But my generation has suffered for that, and unless
:16:14. > :16:18.you can tap into your parents on that, there is no way you can
:16:18. > :16:24.afford a property. Partly the boomers have outlived the security
:16:24. > :16:29.net. The security net of only meant for people to be living to 65-70,
:16:29. > :16:31.we will live a lot longer than that. On a profound level, we are in a
:16:31. > :16:36.post-Christian society, right now, it is going to take a long time for
:16:36. > :16:41.that to come home to people. But we are. And some of that has to do
:16:41. > :16:45.with the newcomers, but also it is going to change our own perceptions
:16:45. > :16:48.of the idea of home owning and all of these other strictures we have
:16:48. > :16:53.had. This post-Christian society, looking at the number, still a lot
:16:53. > :16:59.of people identify they are Christians. And many of the new
:16:59. > :17:04.immigrants identify as Christians, Pole s? The few people who have
:17:04. > :17:08.seen an increase in Briggss Boston, Lambeth which, has had a lot of
:17:08. > :17:12.black African Christians move in. And I kind of think that just
:17:12. > :17:18.asking how you identify as Christian doesn't really show who
:17:18. > :17:21.is really Christian. There is an awful lot of people who went to a
:17:21. > :17:25.Church of England School that ticked Christian ten years ago and
:17:25. > :17:31.now don't. Even that has changed, people who self-identified as
:17:31. > :17:36.Christians and never went to church don't do that? It is certainly true.
:17:36. > :17:40.I'm not entirely sure, it seems less important to us. Does that
:17:40. > :17:44.matter? If this is a nation with an established church, where the
:17:44. > :17:47.church itself is part of the body politic itself, part of the clash
:17:47. > :17:51.that is happening now is that's being questioned. If you go to
:17:51. > :17:55.churches, you will see mostly, the majority of the congregation are
:17:55. > :17:58.older people, it doesn't mean that people don't live according to
:17:58. > :18:01.certain precepts, but they don't live as say the way my parents
:18:01. > :18:11.lived, or the way my mother lives. It is a different idea about our
:18:11. > :18:14.spiritual life, if we have one. Does it matter, now a quarter of
:18:14. > :18:18.people say they are not involved with religion, you think that is a
:18:18. > :18:22.good thing? It has gone up to 25%, one in four people you meet is a
:18:22. > :18:26.person not looking at the world through a particular pair of
:18:26. > :18:29.spectacles. It is a much more interesting figure than the just
:18:29. > :18:33.under 60% who now say they are Christian. The majority of whom
:18:33. > :18:37.probably have ticked that box for cultural identity reasons rather
:18:37. > :18:40.than any great commitment to dock trainal matters. Does that mean an
:18:40. > :18:43.even greater distance from being a cultural Christian? Yes, but I
:18:43. > :18:49.think it means that there is a greater openness and acceptance of
:18:49. > :18:58.the fact that there are other ways of thinking about the world. That
:18:58. > :19:01.you don't identify, for example, your local bishop as "the" moral
:19:01. > :19:03.authority in your community. It means people have individual
:19:03. > :19:07.responsibility for thinking about how they get on with others. Does
:19:07. > :19:10.it make you act any differently? does, if you are thinking about
:19:10. > :19:13.your relationships with others in your community, and there are two
:19:13. > :19:15.things here, firstly, the recognition of the fact that it is
:19:15. > :19:19.your responsibility to think about those things. And secondly, that
:19:19. > :19:23.there is more demand on you to think about the diversity of the
:19:23. > :19:26.people around you. Both of them are very positive. People who rise to
:19:26. > :19:34.the challenge are going to be better citizens as a result.
:19:34. > :19:37.Do you buy that? Not wholly. Among other reasons why this upsurge of
:19:37. > :19:41.people declaring themselves to be atheist, there is a greater
:19:41. > :19:46.visibility in society now, of people who promote an atheist world
:19:46. > :19:49.view, and have had great success and publicity for that. More xom
:19:49. > :19:52.people are uncomfortable saying they don't believe, where a
:19:52. > :19:59.generation, a lot of people would have remained quiet about that. As
:19:59. > :20:03.for the impact, one thing that makes me nervous about celebrating
:20:03. > :20:07.this, it comes back to culture identity. If we are going to have
:20:07. > :20:13.any coherence ahead, we need a core identity. Now, we might disagree
:20:13. > :20:17.what the nature of that is, it was, and maybe still is, that we're
:20:17. > :20:22.centered on a judeo-Christian world view, even if you don't believe.
:20:22. > :20:26.That is an identity. The question I would have, if these 25% people who
:20:26. > :20:33.say they are atheist and non- believers, in the huge summers
:20:33. > :20:36.board of identities they have in Britain, what are - smorgasbord of
:20:36. > :20:40.people of identities, in Britain what are they? There is always this
:20:40. > :20:45.thing of a British identity. That is interesting to me. One of the
:20:45. > :20:49.geniuses of being British is there isn't this sort of rock solid
:20:49. > :20:52.definition of identity, that an American has, which is built by the
:20:52. > :20:56.first and second...There Was an identity. There is an identity, but
:20:56. > :21:00.not the kind of identity I have experienced, or the identity a
:21:00. > :21:05.French person would experience. The brilliance of this nation is
:21:05. > :21:08.actually, people who come in are absorbed in this thing called the
:21:08. > :21:12.British identity. Sometimes it take as long time, sometimes it is
:21:12. > :21:16.violent, it will take centuries. The good thing that is happening is
:21:16. > :21:19.we are forging a new kind of identity, it is an identity of
:21:19. > :21:23.inclusion and acceptance of pluralism, it doesn't mean you have
:21:23. > :21:27.to have so much conformity and convention. This greater
:21:27. > :21:32.peculiarity of opportunities that people have to be human in their
:21:32. > :21:35.own way, is a very welcome thing. Absolutely I agree with that. The
:21:35. > :21:39.reason why this peculiarity is possible is, in part, because of
:21:39. > :21:43.our history, in part because having an accepting culture. What happens
:21:43. > :21:47.when everyone can pursue whatever they want, except the main core of
:21:47. > :21:50.that culture disappears. We will find out in ten years time, let's
:21:50. > :21:54.leave it there. For months we have been told that
:21:54. > :21:58.Syria isn't Libya, not a country where western powers should even
:21:58. > :22:03.think of intervening in an internal conflict sparked by the Arab Spring.
:22:03. > :22:06.In the past week or so, NATO countries have become increasingly
:22:06. > :22:11.worried about the chemical weapons stocks possessed by the Assad
:22:11. > :22:14.regime, and at least two nightmarish possiblities. One that
:22:14. > :22:18.Assad's forces might use them against the rebels in Syria, and
:22:19. > :22:22.two, the rebel forces, those associated with Hezbollah or Al-
:22:22. > :22:25.Qaeda, might get their hands on nerve gas or other toxins. We are
:22:25. > :22:32.here to talk through what is happening on the ground and wait it
:22:32. > :22:36.is seen by NATO. The subject of escalation has been
:22:36. > :22:40.high on everyone's agenda, particularly last week, in a run up
:22:40. > :22:43.to NATO meeting, that the Americans claimed that Syrian chemical
:22:43. > :22:49.weapons were being readied for use. Now it is known that the Syrian
:22:49. > :22:54.Government keeps nerve gas, as well as older agents like mustard gas
:22:54. > :22:58.and cyanide, at several main depots, as well as up to 20 smaller
:22:58. > :23:06.ammunitions sites. The recent scare was apparently caused by activity
:23:06. > :23:09.at Al Furqlus, not far from Homs. It has been reported that air
:23:09. > :23:13.dropped bombs were being filled with chemical agents there. Today,
:23:13. > :23:20.though, the Americans sought to calm speculation that those bombs
:23:20. > :23:27.might be used imminently. At this point, the intelligence is
:23:27. > :23:31.really kind of levelling off. We haven't seen anything new
:23:31. > :23:36.indicating any aggressive steps to move forward in that way. But we
:23:36. > :23:44.continue to monitor it very closely, and we continue to make clear to
:23:44. > :23:46.them that they should, under any means, make use of these chemical
:23:46. > :23:52.weapons against their own population.
:23:52. > :23:56.As well as those bomb, Syria has chemical warheads for scud
:23:56. > :24:02.ballistic missiles. Experts remain uncertain, though, about the size
:24:02. > :24:06.and breath of the total stockpile. I would be more concerned by the
:24:06. > :24:15.biological weaponry we know is there. Something like anthrax is
:24:15. > :24:19.very easy to hide and move around. Senses are not available to detect
:24:19. > :24:22.it, you have to find it and work out what it is. I would be
:24:22. > :24:26.concerned on the biological side more than the chemical. But the
:24:26. > :24:30.risk that some of these stockpiles could fall into rebel hapbtdz, or
:24:30. > :24:32.those of militant -- hands, or those of militant groups, could be
:24:32. > :24:38.higher than that of the Assad regime using them. There has been
:24:38. > :24:41.no real evidence that Syria's army has been issued gas masks or
:24:41. > :24:45.protective clothing. Using them anywhere near their own army, could
:24:45. > :24:53.therefore kill far more of them than the insurgents. Meanwhile,
:24:53. > :24:58.there are reports of certain key bases being overrun. Ramusso, near
:24:58. > :25:02.Aleppo, was rumoured to be home for chemical weapons, but it would
:25:02. > :25:09.appear the rebels haven't found any there. There have been unconfirmed
:25:09. > :25:15.reports in the past few days, that militants from the Al Mussa front,
:25:15. > :25:21.they are, say the Pentagon, a branch of Al-Qaeda, breaching the
:25:21. > :25:25.security base south of Aleppo. If confirmed, that is big news. The
:25:25. > :25:29.complex, seen by satellite, is one of the most important weapons
:25:29. > :25:34.facilities in Syria. It has a large chemical manufacturing plant, a
:25:34. > :25:39.warhead storage area, and a missile base, complete with tunnels for
:25:39. > :25:44.scud launchers. Any breach at this plant, could be one more sign that
:25:45. > :25:49.the regime may finally be tottering. There has been a lot of attention
:25:49. > :25:53.too on Damascus, and the increasingly bitter fight for the
:25:53. > :25:58.suburbs. Anti-Assad forces already control much of the east, as well
:25:58. > :26:05.as the neighbourhoods of those around. The regime has its
:26:05. > :26:08.strongholds in the centre, and the appropriately named AL-Assad
:26:08. > :26:10.district to the north. Their problem is getting through to the
:26:10. > :26:15.International Airport, that requires them to travel to the east,
:26:15. > :26:20.and in recent days, the rebels have been focusing attacks on that
:26:20. > :26:25.airport, leading to many cancelled flights. An increased feeling of
:26:25. > :26:30.isolation felt by many loyalists. So, many have predicted that the
:26:30. > :26:37.regime was about to collapse during the past 20 months, it is unwise
:26:37. > :26:41.now to rush to that judgment. But it is clear that the patches of
:26:41. > :26:46.land that the Assad security forces control are steadily shrinking. And
:26:46. > :26:52.further humiliations, the loss of key towns and bases, are probably
:26:52. > :26:55.imminent. The death toll, already 40,000, could rise again steeply if
:26:55. > :27:01.regime supporters feel their facing a last stand.
:27:01. > :27:05.As to what NATO, or the US might do about that, that's another story.
:27:05. > :27:10.President Obama has moved away, just a little, from his staunchly
:27:10. > :27:15.non-interventionist, pre-election stance. He has approved the sending
:27:15. > :27:22.of patriot missile batteries to turkey, to defend against air or --
:27:22. > :27:26.Turkey, to defend against air or missile attack. He has upgraded
:27:26. > :27:30.communication with the rebels. But securing those unconventional
:27:30. > :27:34.weapons stocks and plans for that finds few backers in Washington.
:27:34. > :27:38.The discussion of 70,000 troops coming out of the states I wouldn't
:27:38. > :27:41.say is an underestimate. First of all you need to secure the area
:27:41. > :27:44.completely. You then need to do detailed monitoring to see if any
:27:44. > :27:49.of the weaponry has been damaged and released. Then you need to
:27:49. > :27:54.actually go in and secure the weaponry theself. If it is
:27:54. > :28:00.unopposed, it will be slightly more straight forward, especially if the
:28:00. > :28:03.weaponry is in good condition. If it is opposed, hugely challenging.
:28:03. > :28:08.Advance parties of Special Forces have been deployed to Turkey and
:28:08. > :28:14.Jordan, where they might lead missions to secure the special
:28:14. > :28:17.weapons stockpiles. Even then, the chance of some nerve agents or
:28:18. > :28:23.biological weapons falling into the hands of terrorists could be high.
:28:23. > :28:30.That possible link between extremist groups and WMD, was
:28:30. > :28:34.exactly what Tony Blair argued when he was acting to forestall it in
:28:34. > :28:39.2003. It's a bitter irony of the Iraq experience. That the last
:28:40. > :28:47.thing America wants to do now is implement its plans to go into
:28:47. > :28:50.Syria to stop just that happening. Yaser Tabbara is in Marrakach for
:28:50. > :28:55.an International Conference on Syria tomorrow, and is spokesman
:28:55. > :28:59.for the new umbrella opposition group, the Syrian National
:28:59. > :29:05.Coalition, and we have a former British ambassador to Syria. Mr
:29:05. > :29:11.Tabbara, first, how worried are you, that Assad may get so desperate, he
:29:11. > :29:17.may use these chemical weapons against the opposition? Well, Assad
:29:17. > :29:21.has demonstrated several times that he's a mad man, that he is doing
:29:21. > :29:30.this as an existentialist battle. He has said many times in the past
:29:30. > :29:33.that he will die in Syria. We are afraid that he might resort to that.
:29:33. > :29:38.We're trying to prepare ourselves, as much as possible, to prevent
:29:38. > :29:42.that from happening. Mr Sindall, do you agree with that,
:29:42. > :29:47.that desperate people do desperate things, he has killed a lot of
:29:47. > :29:52.civilians and he may use these things? I'm not sure he will. This
:29:52. > :29:56.whole issue of the chemical stockpile in Syria has as much to
:29:56. > :30:01.do with the further demonisation of the undesirability of the regime,
:30:01. > :30:06.on the one hand, or people now with this talk that it might, these
:30:07. > :30:12.might fall into the hands of other undesirable groups, those who have
:30:12. > :30:17.an agenda, are most encouraging military intervention of some sort
:30:17. > :30:25.or another. I don't discount the risk at all, I'm not that niave,
:30:25. > :30:30.there is an agenda of political motivation to this argument. Is it
:30:30. > :30:33.like Iraq, but he has definitely got the chemical weapons?
:30:33. > :30:37.argument of chemical weapons is a potent argument to use in the
:30:37. > :30:41.debate about what to do with the Syrian regime. It is more about us?
:30:41. > :30:47.It is as much about that. It simply brings you back to this issue,
:30:47. > :30:52.fundamentally, are we seeking to bring about the end of the Assad
:30:52. > :30:56.regime by military means, by some way or another encouraging the
:30:56. > :31:00.opposition militarily, or by political means. In Geneva, the
:31:00. > :31:04.Russians and Americans, were talking about political
:31:04. > :31:08.possiblities, but at the same time, if we're talking to the Syrian
:31:08. > :31:12.opposition, and our friend Mr Tabbara, about the Syrian National
:31:12. > :31:16.Coalition, we would really need to know to what extent do they have
:31:16. > :31:20.any control over military groups in Syria, and over people like all
:31:20. > :31:24.quad dark the people who we are being told might get hold of these
:31:24. > :31:33.weapons. On that point, Mr Tabbara, what you do you make of the
:31:33. > :31:37.possibility that all nurse ra, or people associated and -- Al-Nursra,
:31:37. > :31:39.or Al-Qaeda, might get a hold of these weapons because of the chaos
:31:39. > :31:45.in the country. We have been calling on the international
:31:45. > :31:50.community for months and months, to invest in a serious way, and arm
:31:50. > :31:53.the opposition to create a chain of command that answer to a political
:31:53. > :31:58.umbrella group. The fact that the international community has chosen
:31:58. > :32:02.not to intervene directly, and not to implement a no-fly zone is
:32:02. > :32:07.putting them in the position of putting us in the primary position
:32:07. > :32:11.to actually have to deal with this issue on our own, and bring about
:32:11. > :32:16.the fall of Assad on our own. Having said that, a couple of days
:32:16. > :32:21.ago, there was the announcement of the establishment of the higher
:32:21. > :32:25.Military Council that will come under the political umbrella.
:32:25. > :32:29.presumably you accept that all that takes time, meanwhile on the ground
:32:29. > :32:33.things are changing day by day, some of these Jihadist groups are
:32:33. > :32:39.doing a lot of the fighting, and they would love, presumably, to get
:32:39. > :32:49.their hand on some of these weapons? Let me address that,
:32:49. > :32:50.
:32:50. > :32:52.however, first of all, extremism is as much of a problem as it is the
:32:52. > :32:56.international communities and the Syrian people. This is something we
:32:56. > :33:03.realise we really need to deal with. Now, once we get to the point where
:33:03. > :33:07.we could topple the regime, we will put through the mechanisms that we
:33:07. > :33:10.are building right now in putting together the Military Council, and
:33:10. > :33:15.establishing the chain of command, to be able to try to control these
:33:15. > :33:19.extremists as much as possible. might be too late? Culturally
:33:19. > :33:22.speaking there is a main treem. might be too late? -- Mainstream.
:33:22. > :33:26.It might be too late? No there is a general understanding in the
:33:26. > :33:32.fighters on the ground, the overwhelming majority of the groups
:33:32. > :33:37.that join the Military Council, espouse a moderate rhetoric,
:33:37. > :33:43.espouse moderate principle, they have repeatedly isolated the
:33:43. > :33:48.extremists, and marginalised extremists day in day out. Let me
:33:48. > :33:51.bring in Mr Sindall on that, I want to be clear in my own mind, whether
:33:51. > :33:54.you think the specter of these weapons, falling into the hand of
:33:54. > :33:57.some these groups, that can't be discounted, whether you think it is
:33:58. > :34:01.a bit of a scare story, frankly, to prepare the public for the
:34:01. > :34:06.possibility that politicians are one side of the Atlantic or the
:34:06. > :34:09.other, and want to use military force? I think with this quite
:34:09. > :34:13.legitimate concern being built, we have a situation in which
:34:13. > :34:16.intervention may be ceepg up on us a bit, whether we want -- creeping
:34:16. > :34:20.up on us a bit, whether we want it or not. We are talking in parallel,
:34:21. > :34:27.with the Russians and the Americans, about looking for a political
:34:27. > :34:31.solution. Because the alternative, which our friend, Mr Tabbara has
:34:31. > :34:37.just told us, his predecessors and his council have had as one of the
:34:37. > :34:41.planks of their activity, a call, a desire for military intervention
:34:41. > :34:45.from the west. Their's is a military solution in the first
:34:45. > :34:49.place. That is how they think, as I understand Mr Tabbara, will topple
:34:49. > :34:53.the regime. Then they will think they will put the civil structure
:34:53. > :35:02.in place. The question seems to me, if that is the road down which we
:35:02. > :35:05.are going, all these other creeping issues are very potent and bring us
:35:05. > :35:10.into a completely different set of scenario, I wonder if we have to
:35:10. > :35:13.start thinking about the unthinkable, rather more, of some
:35:13. > :35:16.kind of political dialogue, involving the Assad regime, before
:35:16. > :35:20.you get to the nightmare alternatives.
:35:20. > :35:23.Thank you very much. At this time of year you can't open
:35:23. > :35:28.a greetings card or enter a bookshop without coming across the
:35:28. > :35:32.drawings of Quentin Blake. He's best known for collaborating with
:35:32. > :35:36.Roald Dahl, on darkly comic books loved by generations of children.
:35:36. > :35:39.Blake is 80 this week, he continues to draw every day, and has a show
:35:39. > :35:45.of new work opening tomorrow in London. Perhaps you would not
:35:45. > :35:49.expect to encounter priests being hanged, among Blake's work, or
:35:49. > :35:59.monkeys biting naked women on the back side. That is what Steve Smith
:35:59. > :36:06.found when he went to meet him! You sit down at the page, with a
:36:06. > :36:09.You sit down at the page, with a pencil, and you start drawing. You
:36:09. > :36:15.start round the face somewhere, and you sort of find out who those
:36:15. > :36:18.people are, as you are drawing them. You don't look at somebody climbing
:36:18. > :36:22.You don't look at somebody climbing a ladder to see what it is like.
:36:23. > :36:28.You kind of imagine what that must be like, you know what I mean. And
:36:28. > :36:32.so you feel the gestures, on yourself, in a funny sort of way.
:36:32. > :36:36.And also you make the expressions of the people looking at each other
:36:36. > :36:44.in the pictures. You don't make the expressions into a mirror, do you?
:36:44. > :36:51.No, no, you make them from inside. Quentin Blake is the man who drew
:36:51. > :36:57.childhood. His illustrations have seen several generations of
:36:57. > :37:03.youngsters through their formative years. His work means children's
:37:03. > :37:07.books, some how. And so, on if you haven't really studied it, or you
:37:07. > :37:10.don't really take notice of who illustrators are, you do know his
:37:10. > :37:15.work, it is everywhere, it has been copied so many times by so many
:37:15. > :37:19.different people, it is now just part of the culture.
:37:19. > :37:25.He's probably best known for his collaboration with the dark genius
:37:25. > :37:31.Roald Dahl. They were the good cop, bad cop, of
:37:31. > :37:39.the children's section. We were very opposite, in many ways.
:37:39. > :37:43.We liked humour and exaggeration, you know, so there was a whole area
:37:43. > :37:47.where we obviously corresponded, where the books were happening, a
:37:47. > :37:53.lot of our views about life would be completely opposite. He would be
:37:53. > :37:58.much more confrontational than I would. At the same time, I remember
:37:58. > :38:02.somebody saying, when I was small I thought the words and pictures were
:38:02. > :38:06.by the same person. I could see why that would be the case, actually
:38:06. > :38:11.the memory of the books would be of your illustrations, perhaps, at
:38:11. > :38:19.least as much as his words, if not more so? He was very generous about
:38:19. > :38:26.that, and said when people talk about the BFG, what they see is
:38:26. > :38:32.what Quein drew. You try to play the notes -- Queint drew. You try
:38:32. > :38:36.to play the notes accurately. first book I wrote was The Boy In
:38:36. > :38:40.The Dress, I met up with Quentin Blake and he showed me the idea he
:38:40. > :38:44.had for the cover, I cried, I couldn't believe a character I
:38:44. > :38:49.created he illustrated. He illustrated so many of the books I
:38:49. > :38:53.loved growing up. The magic to his work is that, it doesn't tell you
:38:53. > :38:59.exactly what the person looks like, it allows you to add your
:38:59. > :39:06.imagination to it. But is it only beamish boys and
:39:06. > :39:13.girls who spring from the ink- splattered desk of Quentin Blake.
:39:13. > :39:17.Some people like me may wonder if you have a secret cachet of dark
:39:17. > :39:27.Gothic drawings that you do when you go to bed and eat too much
:39:27. > :39:27.
:39:27. > :39:32.cheese! I mean, no, there isn't a huge archive of Gothic horror, at
:39:32. > :39:38.all. I don't like that sort of thing much.
:39:38. > :39:43.Despite that, Blake said he enjoyed illustrating an edition of
:39:43. > :39:48.Voltaire's dark satire, Condide. is nice to have the opportunity,
:39:48. > :39:54.which you don't get in children's books so much, of people being hung,
:39:54. > :40:02.and garotteed and all that. Bitten on the bum by monk keys? That sort
:40:02. > :40:05.of thing, yeah. When it was illustrated when this
:40:05. > :40:09.came out was illustrated by formal drawings. What I likeded about it,
:40:09. > :40:19.I have that sort of element of caricature in it, which I think he
:40:19. > :40:21.
:40:21. > :40:25.has got. Blake, who turns 80 at the weekend,
:40:25. > :40:32.has a retrospective book out. This show, opening in central London
:40:32. > :40:38.tomorrow. It includes such apparently un-
:40:38. > :40:42.Blake-like pieces as this series, Girls and Dogs. I don't know what
:40:42. > :40:48.they were about. They have this ruined landscape, the dogs when I
:40:48. > :40:52.was drawing them got very big. It looks, in a way, quite threatening.
:40:52. > :40:56.Almost wolfish! But interested in whatever she has done. The colour
:40:56. > :40:59.chart as well. It is not only the walls of gall
:40:59. > :41:06.rows that can boast of Blake, they are also turning up in hospitals
:41:06. > :41:11.and medical centres too. Blake began by cheering up some --
:41:11. > :41:15.galleries that can boast of Blake. They are also turning up in
:41:15. > :41:18.hospitals and medical centres. Blake began by cheering up some
:41:18. > :41:22.elderly patients. I did some for children, which is using the kind
:41:22. > :41:27.of techniques I had used in children's book. Then I also did
:41:27. > :41:32.some for adults, and I did these sort of pictures of people swimming
:41:32. > :41:35.about underwater, fully clothed, amongst fish and little crocodiles
:41:35. > :41:40.and things. That was one of the pictures that seemed to attract
:41:40. > :41:49.their attention, in a way. It is normal people in rather strange
:41:49. > :41:54.situations, in a sense, I have gone back to the idea of paintings in
:41:54. > :41:59.the 15th century chapel or Muriel paintings that sort of things.
:42:00. > :42:04.There was that great painting of a crucifixion, he takes a different
:42:04. > :42:09.line of it to me, less cheery. His line is, you know, you are lucky
:42:09. > :42:13.compared with this. You were the first children's
:42:13. > :42:19.laureate, and your work is very much associated with young people.
:42:19. > :42:26.What do you think is their lot, their status in 2012? They are so
:42:26. > :42:31.aware of everything that is happening. So that they start to
:42:31. > :42:37.take on a kind of psychological responsibility for what is
:42:37. > :42:45.happening in the world. That must be distressing, I think. Even if
:42:45. > :42:49.they are not aware of it. By the way, I hate to spoil a
:42:49. > :42:57.Christmas surprise, but when you open your cards and books this year,
:42:57. > :43:00.look out for his nibs! Wonderful stuff. We began tonight's programme
:43:00. > :43:03.by discussing who are we as a nation, we want to end with some
:43:03. > :43:06.thoughts about where we might be going. What difference would it
:43:06. > :43:12.make if Britain are were to leave the European Union. We will devote
:43:12. > :43:15.Newsnight tomorrow to discussing the consequences, the good, the bad,
:43:16. > :43:22.the ugly. The Prime Minister has been discussing with his inner
:43:22. > :43:26.circle the contents of Cameron's Big Speech, expected on the EU. How
:43:26. > :43:29.is the speech writing going? don't know. It was the most
:43:29. > :43:32.documented speech writing process recently the reason why it is so
:43:32. > :43:35.important, is it could end up framing the next two-and-a-half
:43:35. > :43:40.years, and part of the general election. What Cameron has to do is
:43:40. > :43:44.hold off some of the unhappiness in his own party, which means he has
:43:44. > :43:47.already lost votes in parliament over Europe. Also the rising
:43:47. > :43:51.discontent within the country over Europe. One of his chief rival, the
:43:51. > :43:53.person who keeps nipping at his heels over Europe, for our
:43:53. > :43:58.programme tomorrow, Boris Johnson was interviewed by Jeremy today.
:43:58. > :44:02.This is what he had to say on what he as worried about, which is
:44:02. > :44:07.indecision over Europe harming British interests and business.
:44:07. > :44:13.think business would welcome clarity. We have been on this now
:44:13. > :44:18.for so long, and we haven't had a referendum since 1975. It is
:44:18. > :44:23.perfectly obvious that the Europe question has got to be put to the
:44:23. > :44:27.British people. I think the formula I have come up with. What is the
:44:27. > :44:31.Europe question? Do you want to be in it or not. That is not what he
:44:31. > :44:34.thinks the question is. Elsewhere in the interview he goes on to say
:44:34. > :44:39.he does believe something closer to the Prime Minister's position, not
:44:39. > :44:43.do you want to be in it or not, but we will renegotiate, and we will
:44:43. > :44:46.put to you a renegotiated package or out. That is very similar to
:44:46. > :44:48.what we imagine David Cameron will come forward. That is why when you
:44:48. > :44:53.say how do you think the speech writing is going, when David
:44:53. > :45:00.Cameron sees the interview he will breathe a bit of a sigh of relief,
:45:00. > :45:04.that Boris Johnson has not decided to be as the big capital "O" out of
:45:04. > :45:07.Europe. Do we know how Boris Johnson would vote on in or out?
:45:07. > :45:10.What is interesting about the interview, for the first time in a
:45:10. > :45:14.few weeks, he is clear to go for the renegotiated position. He does
:45:14. > :45:19.not think it would be good for Britain to be out of Europe in a
:45:19. > :45:23.complete clean sweep. That is more clarity than we have had in a while.
:45:23. > :45:30.Thank you very much. Jeremy is here tomorrow, speaking of great fashion
:45:30. > :45:37.icons, the former head of the National Union of Miners, Arthur
:45:37. > :45:41.Scargill, seems to have inspired a range of menswear. The designs will
:45:41. > :45:47.be produced commercially for the clothes chain Burton. Let's not
:45:48. > :45:52.forget where it started. # Fashion put it on me
:45:52. > :45:55.# I'm what you want me to be # Fashion
:45:55. > :45:59.# Don't you wanna see the clothes on me
:45:59. > :46:02.# Fashion # I'm what you withstand me to be
:46:02. > :46:12.# Fashion, don't you want to see the clothes on me
:46:12. > :46:15.
:46:15. > :46:19.# Put it on me Hello there, it is very cold and
:46:19. > :46:23.frosty out there already. Some icey patches, certainly fog around,
:46:23. > :46:26.particularly in the Midlands, parts of Wales, southern England, East
:46:26. > :46:30.Anglia, a patches in northern England. Most lifting, a little bit
:46:30. > :46:34.of sunshine coming through. A cold day, temperatures are struggling to
:46:34. > :46:37.get much above freezing, it could stay rather grey and murky all day
:46:37. > :46:46.through parts of the Midlands through the home counties too. A
:46:47. > :46:51.much fogier start in the south-east of England than it was 24 hours ago.
:46:51. > :46:54.The south west will be less -- south west will be less foggy, and
:46:54. > :46:57.sunshine in the afternoon. East Wales is struggling with the fog,
:46:57. > :47:01.west of Wales sunshine. Clouding over in Northern Ireland after a
:47:01. > :47:06.frosty start. A few spots of rain in the afternoon, making it feel
:47:06. > :47:09.quite cold. For Scotland it will be generally dry, icey patches in the
:47:09. > :47:12.south west and along the northern coast. Most places dry, cold and
:47:12. > :47:16.frosty with sunshine. A similar sort of story on Thursday, can you
:47:16. > :47:21.see how the temperatures, not really rising at all, on the city
:47:21. > :47:24.forecast, and further south as well. Staying cold on Wednesday and
:47:24. > :47:28.Thursday. Not as much fog around on Thursday, most of it will be around