:00:14. > :00:18.It's December 12th, 2020 eight years from now, Britain has left
:00:18. > :00:22.the European Union, at least, that's what increasing numbers of
:00:22. > :00:28.us seem to want. Some time very soon, David Cameron is going to
:00:28. > :00:32.have to tell us What If he our destiny in Europe to be. Will we be
:00:32. > :00:37.allowed a vote on the subject? Tonight we explore whether if we
:00:37. > :00:42.quit we would be throwing off shackles or crippling ourselves.
:00:42. > :00:47.With testimony and argument from those on both sides of the debate.
:00:47. > :00:51.We will hear from Paris and the author, Irvine Welsh in Edinburgh.
:00:51. > :00:56.What might the future be like, the Mayor of London has his own ideas.
:00:56. > :01:00.What we want to do is end the misery and mistrust, and stop
:01:00. > :01:06.everybody blaming us for not sharing the zeal of the
:01:06. > :01:11.eurofederates. We don't share that zeal. We don't have any ambition to
:01:11. > :01:17.pool British sovereignty and create this single state, we don't want to
:01:17. > :01:27.do that, give us a new relationship. You stop blaming us for being the
:01:27. > :01:27.
:01:27. > :01:30.backmarkers, we stop moaning, and we have a new treaty.
:01:30. > :01:35.Latest opinion polls seem to suggest that nearly three-quarters
:01:35. > :01:38.of us may want to leave the European Union, or to have a
:01:38. > :01:40.different sort of relationship with it. Some time in the very near
:01:40. > :01:45.future, the Prime Minister is expected to announce that we will
:01:45. > :01:52.be allowed a vote in a referendum on whether to stay in, or get out.
:01:52. > :01:57.So, that's what we are exploring tonight. These people, our own
:01:57. > :02:01.viable destin -- our only viable destiny is part of the European
:02:01. > :02:05.Union project, to these, we have nothing to lose but chains. Quickly,
:02:05. > :02:09.what is your position, what do you think if we decide to leave? It is
:02:09. > :02:14.a dangerous and cold environment we are in. Prosperity we will not have
:02:14. > :02:19.inward investmentors coming into Britain, we won't -- investors
:02:19. > :02:23.coming into Britain, and we won't be able to export leasely. We are
:02:23. > :02:26.not part of a regional block, we are an isolated country. We are cut
:02:26. > :02:31.off from the source of peace and stability in Europe. You think it
:02:31. > :02:36.is a Promised Land, don't you? will go on doing business with
:02:36. > :02:41.European countries companies as we do now, but smaller percentages.
:02:41. > :02:44.Firstly, the European Union is heading for a disaster, and the
:02:44. > :02:48.customs free we are trapped in, we will be able to negotiate our own
:02:48. > :02:51.deals, the future for Britain should be global, not European.
:02:51. > :02:59.run a global company? I try to. The biggest advertising company in the
:02:59. > :03:06.world, isn't it. What do you think it will be? I would be worried in
:03:06. > :03:10.2020, limited access to 500 million, and access to a $17 trillion dollar
:03:10. > :03:15.economy. Limited access to exports and financial services company,
:03:15. > :03:17.apart from advertising agencies and the like. We will probably still be
:03:18. > :03:21.renegotiating bilateral trade agreements in 2020, eight years on.
:03:21. > :03:26.And last, but not least, we will probably have a diminished
:03:26. > :03:32.political significance. So, I worry about it in all those context, and
:03:33. > :03:36.from the point of view of somebody trying to run a multi national
:03:36. > :03:41.company, I'm extremely worried about lack of access. You run a big
:03:41. > :03:46.financial house. Yes. Why do you take a contrary view? If I can put
:03:46. > :03:49.it simply. If we weren't in, we could actually enjoy the benefit of
:03:49. > :03:53.free trade. Which, ironically, we were supposed to have got from a
:03:53. > :03:57.Common Market, but we don't, with the remainder of the world. How do
:03:57. > :04:01.you think about it? A lot of it depends on the deal that Britain
:04:01. > :04:04.gets with the rest of Europe. There is an assumption here, that you
:04:04. > :04:09.just show up in Brussels, in a few years time, with a list of demands
:04:09. > :04:13.and you pick and choose, we will comply with these EU rules, but not
:04:13. > :04:16.those. That deal is not available, if it was available to Britain, it
:04:16. > :04:20.would have to be available to all other countries, and a single
:04:20. > :04:25.market would unravel. So, I think there is a choice between in or out,
:04:25. > :04:28.and if Britain is out, like Martin said, limited access, and very
:04:28. > :04:33.importantly, the countries that Britain wants to trade with, China,
:04:33. > :04:36.India, they are not natural free traders. They open their markets
:04:36. > :04:42.because the juggernaut of the European Union comes along and says
:04:42. > :04:46.you get access to our markets. Britain doesn't matter here.
:04:46. > :04:50.are Norwegian, and Norway is outside the EU, you think even that
:04:50. > :04:53.is too close? Yes, we are in the EU agreement, which is the single
:04:54. > :04:58.market. The European economic agreement? It is the single market,
:04:58. > :05:01.and we think that is too much, for us. What do you think, supposing
:05:01. > :05:05.Britain joined you, which is probably the best we could hope for,
:05:05. > :05:11.that we would be in some sort of arrangement, you are shaking your
:05:11. > :05:17.head, you can explore that later. We are a big market place for
:05:17. > :05:26.Europe, we trade a massive deficit for these countries, �45 billion a
:05:26. > :05:30.year. I think in 2020 Britain will be a member of the European Free
:05:30. > :05:33.Trade Association. That would be good. We will explore that in depth
:05:33. > :05:37.shortly a referendum will reduce our complicated feelings about the
:05:37. > :05:41.European Union, to a simple binary choice, in or out. So, back to the
:05:41. > :05:44.future. We have asked our Economics Editor, Paul Mason, to sketch out
:05:44. > :05:54.the possible consequences of each choice, first off, how leaving the
:05:54. > :05:57.
:05:57. > :06:01.EU might be good for you, by the year 2020.
:06:01. > :06:04.Here's the scenario, in 2015, in a referendum, Britain votes to leave
:06:05. > :06:11.the European Union. Under the Lisbon Treaty, a two-year
:06:11. > :06:15.transition process begins. Our MEPs leave the parliament, and
:06:15. > :06:20.Britain's EU Commissioner stand down. By the summer of 2017, the
:06:20. > :06:22.transition is complete, Britain is out of the single market, the
:06:22. > :06:26.Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, the
:06:26. > :06:33.European Court of Justice. Blue flags disappear from Britain's
:06:33. > :06:36.beaches. But what then? It is December 12th, 2020, here is the
:06:36. > :06:40.news. The Office for Budget Responsibility today confirmed that
:06:40. > :06:45.the for the third year in a row, Britain is growing faster than at
:06:45. > :06:48.any time since the Blair era. GDP growth stood at 4%, but the
:06:48. > :06:52.Chancellor said inflation remained unacceptably high. Predicting what
:06:52. > :06:57.Britain's future might look like, if we left the EU, is difficult,
:06:57. > :07:00.because there is no authoritative research. But, if we did leave, and
:07:00. > :07:04.growth picked up, what might have gone right to make that happen?
:07:04. > :07:09.Over a period of time, we would benefit, because we could have
:07:09. > :07:14.freer trade with the rest of the world, lower food prices, we could
:07:14. > :07:17.wind down some of the renewables, lower electricity prices, fewer
:07:17. > :07:21.directives and regulation, more small businesses would come back.
:07:21. > :07:25.We wouldn't have all these problems of people coming from Europe and
:07:25. > :07:29.wanting our welfare benefit, and to use the NHS. In all these ways,
:07:29. > :07:33.Britain would benefit. Britain is a net importer from the European
:07:33. > :07:37.Union, running a trade deficit with the EU last year. That should make
:07:37. > :07:43.it possible to do a trade deal, one option would be to do what Norway z
:07:43. > :07:47.and remain part of the European Economic Area. But in this, more
:07:47. > :07:51.radical scenario, the UK secures a favourable bilateral trade deal,
:07:51. > :07:55.modelled on Switzerland. It quickly signs new bilateral deals with key
:07:55. > :07:59.markets set to experience high growth, Brazil, China, India and
:07:59. > :08:03.Russia Some analysts claim European
:08:03. > :08:07.regulations cost business �19 billion a year. In this scenario
:08:07. > :08:12.these are scrapped, the UK would choose which social legislation it
:08:12. > :08:18.wanted to keep, for example, the Working Time Directive, or the
:08:18. > :08:22.agency workers directive, which have been controversial here.
:08:22. > :08:28.In this scenario, agricultural subsidies, �3.8 billion are phased
:08:28. > :08:34.out. And Britain's �8 billion net transfer to the EU ends. And there
:08:34. > :08:39.is free movement of labour in and out of the EU is cancelled, there
:08:39. > :08:43.would likely be a work force affect, and it -- effect, and it might be
:08:43. > :08:46.positive. Unemployment is at an all-time low, as manufacturing
:08:46. > :08:52.employment is rising, and as European migrant workers leave. The
:08:52. > :08:57.number of EU citizens living in the UK, which peaked at two million in
:08:57. > :09:01.2012, has halved. Most coffee bars and fast food stores are now 90%
:09:01. > :09:07.staffed by UK nationals. Financial services account for about 10% of
:09:07. > :09:11.our GDP now, but in our future scenario, if things went right for
:09:11. > :09:15.Britain, outside Europe, the City of London could benefit, as Europe
:09:15. > :09:20.regulates, home mojises, clamps down, London could effectively
:09:20. > :09:26.become an off-shore centre, a giant Singapore. The prospects for
:09:26. > :09:28.Britain in the 21st century, if you like, as a global nation, not a
:09:28. > :09:32.European-focused nation, as a global nation, are fabulous. That
:09:32. > :09:37.is really because the kind of English-speaking world in
:09:37. > :09:42.particular, I think, will do extremely well in the 21st century,
:09:42. > :09:47.Canada, Australia, America, India. We should plug into that.
:09:47. > :09:49.All scenarios are speculative, and this best-case scenario, the
:09:49. > :09:52.assumption is globalisation continues. That might be
:09:52. > :10:02.overoptimistic, but some do dream of a booming city, in a booming
:10:02. > :10:08.Britain, outside the EU for good. These three are apostles of
:10:08. > :10:12.withdrawal, reasoned you? Take that as a compliment. It may have been
:10:12. > :10:16.intended that way, who can say. That was a very narrow view that
:10:17. > :10:20.piece. What would Britain feel like outside the EU? I think our
:10:20. > :10:23.democracy would be regenerated. When we have general elections now,
:10:23. > :10:27.we debate schools and hospitals, because there is no point
:10:27. > :10:29.discussing business regulation, all of those things are now decided by
:10:29. > :10:33.European law. There is almost nothing the British Government or
:10:33. > :10:37.parliament can do about these things. We would suddenly have
:10:37. > :10:41.furious debates on how we managed industry, how we dealt with our
:10:41. > :10:43.renewable energy targets. We would be in charge of these things. And
:10:43. > :10:46.democracy would benefit, more people would vote in general
:10:46. > :10:50.elections, we would be in charge of our own house again.
:10:50. > :10:53.It's hard to believe that we have been more regulated if we are
:10:54. > :10:59.outside. We might feel a bit freer in that regard. If you look at
:10:59. > :11:05.those wonderful things where you look at the 246 words in the
:11:05. > :11:09.Gettysburg address, and the 10,000 words on the policy of eggs in the
:11:09. > :11:16.EU, I wouldn't imagine we would be subject to more regulation, which
:11:16. > :11:21.is not what we want? We regulate ourselves more than the Europeans
:11:21. > :11:25.do. We gold plate our regulation. We wouldn't have anything to gold
:11:25. > :11:29.plate. You will have your shout in a second or two. What do you think
:11:29. > :11:33.it would be like? I think it would be a proud and independent nation
:11:33. > :11:38.outside the EU and and play a proper role on the world scene. The
:11:38. > :11:41.EU is only 27 countries, there are 180 countries in the world. We have
:11:41. > :11:45.growing markets f we want to talk economy, in Asia, where Britain
:11:45. > :11:49.will be able to do business. We will look at that in a moment or
:11:49. > :11:54.two. Let's look at something else, we have heard how it might be on
:11:54. > :12:04.the sun lit uplands, supposing there was another possibility,
:12:04. > :12:07.
:12:07. > :12:12.supposing it didn't go right when we left the European Union.
:12:12. > :12:17.Here's the scenario again, in 2015 the UK votes to leave the EU, by
:12:17. > :12:24.2017, following a fractious process of boycotts and treaty disputes it
:12:24. > :12:28.is out. This time it goes badly. They are calling it Black Monday,
:12:28. > :12:34.the British Aerospace factory is to close with a loss of 5,000 jobs.
:12:34. > :12:38.The move came as Airbus, based in Toulouse, said the end of called
:12:38. > :12:41.fri,-free cross-border manufacturing, has -- friction-free,
:12:41. > :12:46.cross-border manufacturing has made this factory uneconomic. With
:12:46. > :12:50.doubts over the future of Nissan, an urgent debate is scheduled in
:12:50. > :12:57.parliament. About half of all the goods we export end up in Europe,
:12:58. > :12:59.and much of that trade is dependant on the absence of friction, within
:12:59. > :13:04.cross-border manufacturing processes. If Britain fail to
:13:04. > :13:09.negotiate a decent trade agreement with Europe, that could be at risk.
:13:09. > :13:13.As this graph shows, the proportion of UK trade beyond the EU has grown,
:13:13. > :13:18.steadily. But this rebalancing has taken ten years to achieve, and
:13:18. > :13:24.pushing it further could be hard. Even if we ended up in a situation
:13:24. > :13:28.where growth is really looking up, and things look rosy in 2020, we
:13:28. > :13:31.would probably still have been better off if we had stayed in,
:13:31. > :13:36.particularly because tide is turning in our direction. The EU is
:13:36. > :13:38.now with the reforms because of the eurocrisis, entering service
:13:38. > :13:42.liberalisation territory, more and more people use English as a
:13:42. > :13:46.language. Exactly at a time when Britain's liberal influence is
:13:46. > :13:51.finally opening up this single market to its true potential, it
:13:51. > :13:54.would be foolhardy to leave, and partially lock ourselves out of it,
:13:54. > :14:00.when we could be benefiting completely from this. There was
:14:00. > :14:04.chaos at all Britain's airports, as well as in Portsmouth and
:14:04. > :14:08.Southampton, as Britains returning from Spain raced to reach the 1st
:14:08. > :14:12.of January deadline, set by the Spanish Government. If we cancelled
:14:12. > :14:17.the free movement of labour between here and the EU, other countries
:14:17. > :14:21.might retaliate. There are 400,000 Brit living in Spain, and in the
:14:21. > :14:26.worst case scenario, fry-ups and Guinness on the Costa del Sol,
:14:26. > :14:31.could be for holiday makers only. If somebody that agrees strongly
:14:31. > :14:35.with free movement of labour, I think it will have a net negative
:14:35. > :14:39.impact. Some of the very highly- talented people coming to the UK,
:14:39. > :14:42.most recently in the software industry, will stop coming. This
:14:42. > :14:45.will be a quid pro quo arrangement, it is not as if we could ask the
:14:46. > :14:50.Poles to leave, and the Brits working in Germany and France will
:14:50. > :14:54.be allowed to statement this will be something that will damage us in
:14:54. > :14:57.two ways. Suppose the global conditions change, suppose the
:14:57. > :15:02.world deglobalises, then, there is a danger that Britain gets crunched,
:15:02. > :15:08.between the much bigger trading blocks of Asia, the Americas, and
:15:08. > :15:13.Europe theself, and even City would find it hard to -- the City would
:15:13. > :15:18.find it hard to survive that. The EU has already turned nasty Against
:15:18. > :15:21.Switzerland, forcing it to abandon its secret banking practices. If
:15:21. > :15:26.Britain lost the battle with Frankfurt or Paris, it might not
:15:27. > :15:29.look so good for the City. One's bound to ask, why, if this is
:15:29. > :15:33.such a wonderful institution, opinion seems to be turning against
:15:33. > :15:37.it in this country? I think that's because people have been fed a diet
:15:37. > :15:41.of stories, such as we get from the other side. But, actually, Europe
:15:41. > :15:45.has made us prosperous, it has brought prosperity to us and the
:15:45. > :15:48.rest of the continent. I worry that in 2020, we would find that the
:15:48. > :15:50.Americans wouldn't be interested in us, they would be interested in
:15:50. > :15:54.Europe, the Chinese wouldn't be interested in you, they would be
:15:54. > :15:57.interested in Europe. Inward investors would no longer want to
:15:57. > :16:01.invest in us, they would invest in Europe. We would be lonely and
:16:01. > :16:06.poorer. I think the time something very interesting, the transition
:16:06. > :16:09.period, we would be out in 2017, precisely the wrong time, that is
:16:09. > :16:13.probably precisely the time that western Europe will see some sort
:16:13. > :16:19.of recovery. It will be difficult, tough slaving until then, but it
:16:19. > :16:24.will come back. And France, Italy, Spain and Germany will be leading a
:16:24. > :16:30.revival in GDP in Europe. Do you find this scaremongering a bit
:16:30. > :16:33.pathetic? There is just too much uncertainty. The one thing that I
:16:33. > :16:37.don't quite understand, why do people here believe that the
:16:37. > :16:41.European Union is holding Britain back, but they are looking up to a
:16:41. > :16:44.country such as Germany, which is doing well at the moment, which is
:16:44. > :16:49.also in the European Union, and they manage to export, not twice as
:16:49. > :16:52.much to China as Britain, not three-times, not four-times, but
:16:52. > :16:56.probably six-times as much. Despite having to carry most of southern
:16:56. > :17:00.Europe? And despite being in the euro and having all the same
:17:00. > :17:03.regulations under social legislation. If you make that
:17:03. > :17:06.thought experiment, how much freer or better would Britain be better
:17:06. > :17:10.off, would there really be no regulation in this country. Would
:17:10. > :17:13.people be want to go work 100 hours a week, no health and safety
:17:13. > :17:17.regulation. What do you mean no health and safety regulation, we
:17:17. > :17:20.will have home-grown health and safety regulation? How exactly will
:17:20. > :17:24.that be different from the European rules that are now being worked out
:17:24. > :17:27.between all the European countries. We would have chosen them ourselves,
:17:27. > :17:31.instead of letting some other nationality choose them? Then,
:17:31. > :17:33.every time you want to export something to the continent, you
:17:33. > :17:38.have to go through a safety certificatation process, because
:17:38. > :17:41.you are not going to import anything from Bangladesh that isn't
:17:41. > :17:44.tested. That is the same, if we have to export goods to any other
:17:44. > :17:48.part of the world. We have to conform with their markets. The
:17:48. > :17:53.important thing to remember is this, Paul Mason's figures were wrong,
:17:53. > :17:57.half our trade is not with Europe. Because of the Rotterdam effect, if
:17:57. > :18:01.we transshift shuft that shows the trade figure. The true figure is
:18:01. > :18:05.38%. I'm not suggesting that 38% of our overseas market isn't important,
:18:05. > :18:08.it is important, but it is a declining part of our overseas
:18:08. > :18:12.business. The eurozone is contracting, large parts of the
:18:12. > :18:19.European economy, and we find ourselves as the sixth-biggest
:18:19. > :18:23.economy in the world, forbidden from making. Europe won't continue
:18:23. > :18:27.contracting forever. Nothing lasts forever. There could be a
:18:27. > :18:31.drafplatic bust in the eurozone in the next five years, you can't deny
:18:31. > :18:36.that. But there are markets growing in the next five years, and we are
:18:36. > :18:43.forbidden for bilateral trading. have more leverage as a �500
:18:43. > :18:47.million market with �17 trillion of GBP. It gives you the ability to
:18:47. > :18:51.negotiate those bilateral agreements. Switzerland have more
:18:51. > :18:55.bilateral agreements than we do on their own. We will introduce some
:18:55. > :19:01.specific witness, we have also been joined by Sir David Tang, who owns
:19:01. > :19:07.a number of successful businesses in China and the UK, he's CEO of
:19:07. > :19:15.ByBox Business. Stuart Miller a businessman who is here, your ByBox,
:19:15. > :19:18.I'm sorry, I'm joined from Edinburgh by the writer, Irvine
:19:18. > :19:22.Welsh. If we rid ourselves of this great bogeyman of the European
:19:22. > :19:27.Union, what do you think it would do to us Irvine Welsh? I don't
:19:27. > :19:31.think it would do that much on the basis of what I have heard today.
:19:31. > :19:34.The argument seems to be constructed on the neo- liberal
:19:34. > :19:40.defence of the elites, whether in Brussels or Westminster. I think
:19:41. > :19:43.people, middle-class people, who are struggling with debt, and
:19:43. > :19:48.working-class people who are struggling to find jobs or having
:19:49. > :19:52.their pay and conditions constantly eroded, and the poor people who are
:19:52. > :19:59.just struggling to get by, are going to be massively underinspired
:19:59. > :20:04.by this debate. It just seems to be kind of, the advocacy of one set of
:20:04. > :20:10.self-serving elites against another. Broaden it out then? Well, I mean,
:20:10. > :20:14.there is so many different scenario, the fact that when you are trying
:20:14. > :20:18.to talk about constitutional arrangements, and look at how that
:20:18. > :20:25.pans out economically. We have no accord here, and basically people
:20:25. > :20:29.don't know. It is all conjecture and speculation. Everybody knows
:20:29. > :20:34.that essentially what happens economically is sometimes very
:20:34. > :20:38.little to do with membership of these kind of institutions. You can
:20:38. > :20:43.be Greece or Iceland, it doesn't really make that much odds. It is
:20:43. > :20:48.all about what happens in the global economy. Let's take your
:20:48. > :20:53.first point there. When he says that big business, of the kind that
:20:53. > :20:57.you two represent, sold us a pup on Europe, he's right, isn't he?
:20:57. > :21:00.don't think so. I don't think so at all. Small businesses benefit
:21:00. > :21:04.hugely, every worker in this country benefits from the
:21:04. > :21:09.additional employment and growth you get. Why do they keep
:21:09. > :21:11.complaining about regulation then? Because businessmen always complain
:21:11. > :21:17.about regulation, they will complain about regulation if
:21:17. > :21:22.Britain has sole control of it. is true that there is excessive
:21:22. > :21:26.regulation. You want us to join the euro? It is true that there is a
:21:26. > :21:31.negative result of that. But the ability to deal with it inside the
:21:31. > :21:35.group. It is nonsense to suggest that it is not. To be able to deal
:21:35. > :21:38.with it inside the ten is the way to go, not outside the ten. It is
:21:38. > :21:45.to be inside arguing your base, instead of being on the outside.
:21:45. > :21:48.You have a greater faith in our ability to pluns people. I have a
:21:48. > :21:51.great faith in negotiating something that makes sense. Your
:21:51. > :21:55.business is small, isn't it, has it worked for you, the European Union?
:21:56. > :22:00.It is a bit clunky. I have to come back on the point about it being
:22:00. > :22:05.successful for smaller companies. Us expanding into Europe. How big
:22:05. > :22:08.is your company? We employ 350 people in five or six countries.
:22:08. > :22:11.This year we have launched in Tel Aviv and Toulouse, it was just as
:22:11. > :22:15.difficult in both territories. There is something very wrong in
:22:15. > :22:18.that. It should be much easier from my perspective to launch new
:22:18. > :22:22.offices and businesses in an EU member-state, than one that isn't
:22:22. > :22:26.part of the EU. I get the fact it is difficult, these aren't easy
:22:26. > :22:30.problems to fix, it is things like local taxation. What is the problem
:22:30. > :22:36.with the EU? If you think about every state having local tax regime,
:22:36. > :22:39.I understand why, we can't move down the fact of an integrated
:22:39. > :22:43.fiscal platform, that is far too complicated and it couldn't work.
:22:43. > :22:47.There has to be an easy answer to the question, if I open an office
:22:47. > :22:52.in France, how can I submit an invoice, it can't be that
:22:52. > :22:57.complicated. But it is. Landing the conversation right in the heart of
:22:57. > :23:03.a UK entrepeneur, trying to expand across Europe, it should be
:23:03. > :23:06.friction-free and easier. In 2012 outside you will customs forms and
:23:06. > :23:11.VAT forms. You make it sound like it is simply filling forms in, it
:23:11. > :23:14.is not as easy as that. Opening offices, directors responsibilities
:23:14. > :23:18.in different countries, complicated legal exposure. People watching it
:23:18. > :23:23.think I might be moaning about some form filling, this has some teeth,
:23:23. > :23:26.you get it wrong, and you get fined. That is not a free market.
:23:26. > :23:31.firing people in France as a business. I have operated three
:23:31. > :23:35.businesses in France, every time I have suggested any kind of
:23:35. > :23:38.downseizing my financial director has turned pale. There is a
:23:38. > :23:45.completely different set of labour laws operating under there, which
:23:45. > :23:52.are clearly not business-positive. You must view the treatment of
:23:52. > :23:59.labour, without the safeguards that the European Union imposes, with
:23:59. > :24:03.some disquiet, don't you, after leaving? I don't think you can in
:24:03. > :24:07.practice say this European Union is this kind of, you know. The
:24:07. > :24:11.European Union is a neo-liberal organisation too. It is increase
:24:11. > :24:18.league, the whole point of the European Union since the treaty of
:24:18. > :24:21.Rome is to be expansive, is to be, there hasn't been one architect of
:24:21. > :24:25.European integration who has said that's enough integration. That is
:24:25. > :24:28.an issue. People have the right to challenge any constitutional
:24:29. > :24:32.arrangements, they have the right to challenge any kind of power
:24:32. > :24:36.block. Whether it's Westminster, whether it's Brussels, they have
:24:36. > :24:46.the right to think about the constitutional arrangements that
:24:46. > :24:47.
:24:47. > :24:52.benefit them. But, the whole kind of pardigm that we are in now, we
:24:53. > :24:56.have had 30 years of neo-liberals in this country, to think that the
:24:56. > :25:00.European Union has managed to save working-class and middle-class
:25:00. > :25:05.people from the effects of that, is very, very erroneous. The only
:25:05. > :25:10.thing that we are saying is that people would be reduced to an even
:25:10. > :25:14.kind of worst state if we were outside the European Union. Again,
:25:14. > :25:17.possibly not. Do you agree with that, Nigel Farage? When you talk
:25:17. > :25:21.about working-class people, one of the biggest concerns out there is
:25:21. > :25:25.about jobs. Whilst free movement of people has worked, when we had
:25:25. > :25:31.northern European countries in the European Union. To have extended
:25:31. > :25:36.our borders, to the whole of Eastern Europe, as we have done
:25:36. > :25:40.since 2004, has meant a massive oversupply in the unskilled markets.
:25:40. > :25:44.Which has meant that many households have members of the
:25:44. > :25:49.family unemployed which wouldn't have happened. Withdrawal means an
:25:49. > :25:53.end to European integration, calling a spade a spade? It means a
:25:53. > :25:58.total end to European integration. That means an end to the people
:25:58. > :26:03.coming in to give vitality to the creative industries and industries.
:26:03. > :26:07.We use work permits, we don't have a total open-door. We have had
:26:07. > :26:09.massive oversupply in the unskilled labour supply, that is an
:26:10. > :26:17.irresponsible. My grandparents wouldn't have got into the country.
:26:17. > :26:21.And my father. You are better at central planning, you know five
:26:21. > :26:25.years ahead what these small nimble businesses in the heart of London
:26:25. > :26:29.need, you issue the right work permits and make sure people around
:26:29. > :26:33.the world know that these immigration permits are available
:26:33. > :26:38.but others aren't. This is very complicated. You are so proud of
:26:38. > :26:44.your flexible labour market and you want to micromanage it. What I know
:26:44. > :26:48.is on the 1st of January 2014, we are opening our social security and
:26:48. > :26:52.welfare system up to millions of people from Romania and Bulgaria,
:26:52. > :26:56.and I don't think that is good for working families in this country.
:26:56. > :27:01.It was said this was a neo-liberal organisation, the European Union is
:27:01. > :27:05.based on idealism, it is an idealism we don't find particularly
:27:05. > :27:12.comfortable in this country. It is about peace and working together.
:27:12. > :27:15.Why do we do it then? It helps economic growth and business. The
:27:15. > :27:20.underlying reason was to keep the peace between France and Germany.
:27:20. > :27:23.Why is it so unpopular? Because Brussels is always used as the fall
:27:23. > :27:26.guy. It has gone beyond peace between France and Germany.
:27:26. > :27:31.Everything that goes wrong it is Brussels. We haven't had an
:27:31. > :27:36.extensive and detailed debate about it yet. We may well do if we go
:27:36. > :27:41.into a referendum phase. Have a and meaningful debate as opposed to
:27:41. > :27:47.something else. One of the arguments is that by being within
:27:47. > :27:50.the European Union this country makes itself open to all sorts of
:27:50. > :27:54.inward investment from Asian and other countries, the merging
:27:55. > :28:02.economies, and Brazil and Russia, India and China. It also, because
:28:02. > :28:06.people like the idea of access to the single market, is that true?
:28:06. > :28:12.I think I hear all these politicians, big business talking
:28:12. > :28:17.about the European Union, Britain, as if the businesses don't matter.
:28:17. > :28:20.Not a single mention has been made about what it is that underlies the
:28:20. > :28:24.business, that people want to do. Whether it is trade, or whether it
:28:24. > :28:29.is investment, whether it is the product, or the services. I mean,
:28:29. > :28:33.Germany does very good because the Mercedes Benz car is damn good F
:28:33. > :28:40.Britain made good things, and provided good services, China would
:28:40. > :28:45.buy it. And China will invest in it. Already China does quite well with
:28:45. > :28:52.Britain. It has, for example, on the London Stock Exchange, I think,
:28:53. > :28:59.eight listed companies, worth about �16 billion. 43 smaller quoted
:28:59. > :29:03.companies on AIM worth about �3.5 billion. People underestimate the
:29:03. > :29:09.language, �300 -- 300 million people in China are learning
:29:09. > :29:15.English. And also, they have a history through Hong Kong, which is
:29:15. > :29:21.possibly one of the greatest free zones, as far as a free market is
:29:21. > :29:26.concerned, about how China will get out. Britain should do much more in
:29:26. > :29:31.Hong Kong. Let me just say one more thing. The question, whether the UK
:29:31. > :29:37.is in or out of Europe, I think is very, going to be very low on
:29:37. > :29:43.agenda for any businessman. I was precisely going to ask you, do they
:29:43. > :29:47.care? You predicted what I was going to say. And the answer is no.
:29:47. > :29:54.You look at the car industry, the Aerospace industry, and the
:29:54. > :30:01.financial industry, they do care. The point about the Briks, the next
:30:01. > :30:05.11, is valid, we haven't penetrated those markets. We have sent an
:30:05. > :30:11.expedition to Brazil, it is not in the top 11 markets, they have
:30:11. > :30:16.already exceeded the UK in their markets, they play better football
:30:16. > :30:20.too. Why did we buy Rover? Because it was being run down, they saw the
:30:20. > :30:23.opportunity to create that band and the technology, and bring it back
:30:23. > :30:27.to China and replicate it, and sell millions of cars. You are right, we
:30:28. > :30:30.have to do both. We have to focus on a massive European, western
:30:30. > :30:34.European market, which at the moment is in recession, but will
:30:34. > :30:39.come out of recession, that is one thing. We also have to build our
:30:39. > :30:46.training positions in the Brazil- Russia-India-China. We are not
:30:46. > :30:50.allowed to. Can I just add one other very important thing. One
:30:50. > :30:55.very important thing. How do we manage to get a third of our
:30:55. > :30:58.business there. The euro, the Chinese regard as extremely
:30:58. > :31:03.dangerous, they simply don't understand or can predict where it
:31:03. > :31:06.is going to go. The sterling is not as great a currency, purpose, but
:31:06. > :31:15.there is much more certainty. And already the British Government is
:31:15. > :31:17.doing quite a lot in terms of trying to help the currency to
:31:18. > :31:23.become convertible. More than anybody else. Britain is doing
:31:23. > :31:26.quite well. And so the question whether it is in or out, for me is
:31:26. > :31:30.irrelevant. The Norwegian experience, how much do you suffer
:31:30. > :31:35.from being outside the European Union? I don't think we suffer at
:31:35. > :31:40.all. And to be honest. You can't compare, you are an oil-dependant
:31:40. > :31:44.economy, and Britain is 12-times bigger than Norway, you have masses
:31:44. > :31:48.amounts of oil. It is the same as Switzerland, it is the fallacy of
:31:48. > :31:51.the people here. Norway, Switzerland, stable, rich, comfy
:31:51. > :31:54.place, if we are outside the European Union, we will be the same.
:31:54. > :31:58.That is clearly not the case, they are niche players. They have fish
:31:58. > :32:04.in nor way, and we have given away an industry on the own that would
:32:04. > :32:09.be worth �3 billion a year of what is caught in British waters is
:32:09. > :32:12.given away to all the other fleets fleets.
:32:12. > :32:18.We have to negotiate fish in British waters. The very rude
:32:18. > :32:20.English people talking all over each other. I agree. I think we
:32:20. > :32:25.manage well outside the European Union. We have an oil-based economy,
:32:25. > :32:29.that is true. But the revenue from the oil is transferred into the
:32:29. > :32:35.Norwegian society. That's a political choice we have made.
:32:35. > :32:40.it not also true that you have to abide by European regulation, isn't
:32:40. > :32:47.that true? To get access to the single market? That's true. You are
:32:47. > :32:52.essentially governed by facts from Brussels? No we are not. E-mail!
:32:52. > :32:57.the EU agreement, the single market agreement has a clause where we can
:32:57. > :33:00.actually veto a directive if we don't like it. We have done that.
:33:00. > :33:06.That's pretty gracious of them, you are not in it and you are allowed
:33:06. > :33:09.the right to veto something? We are also invited in the beginning.
:33:09. > :33:13.There is an important connection between two people here. One of the
:33:13. > :33:17.things that I think makes Norway and Hong Kong, funnily enough, a
:33:17. > :33:21.success. If you look, a number of people run things called the
:33:21. > :33:24.Economic Freedom Index, they look at things like taxation to see how
:33:24. > :33:28.easy it is to do business. If you look at that in the top ten
:33:28. > :33:33.countries in the world, you regularly get Norway, Hong Kong,
:33:33. > :33:38.Singapore, Chile. Scale, it is scale. Totally different. It is
:33:38. > :33:44.nothing to do with that. 60 million versus five million. That is not to
:33:44. > :33:50.take anything away from Singapore, but it is ...What Are you saying.
:33:50. > :33:54.The European Union regularly comes way down it. Let me ask you this,
:33:54. > :33:59.if Britain were to decide to leave the European Union, and let's
:33:59. > :34:05.suppose it is an amicable-ish sort of separation, do you think the
:34:05. > :34:09.rest of Europe could impose hare riches on British trade with
:34:09. > :34:14.Europe? They can't. Not massively so, there is a trading ray genome
:34:14. > :34:18.that is global under the trade organisation -- trading regime that
:34:18. > :34:21.is under global trade organisations. If you want free access to the
:34:22. > :34:27.single market, then you have to take all the regulations. We are
:34:27. > :34:31.already saddled with most of those? You want to get rid of them. Unless
:34:31. > :34:36.you comply with the safety standards, for example, according
:34:36. > :34:40.to which we want our product, so make, for consumer safety. You will
:34:40. > :34:44.have to have safety certificatation. We do that everywhere in the world.
:34:44. > :34:49.Everywhere we sell from. The result of that is Britain sells more to
:34:49. > :34:53.Germany than to China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Canada,
:34:53. > :34:59.and Australia combined. Do you think the market would want to sell
:34:59. > :35:02.to us, what do you think? Is it because the markets are so easily
:35:02. > :35:05.accessible. The percentage of overseas trade done with Europe is
:35:06. > :35:08.38% and falling every single year. You have made that point. Thank you
:35:09. > :35:12.very much. The growing strength of dislike of
:35:12. > :35:16.the European Union is generally held to be a political problem,
:35:16. > :35:23.especially for the Conservatives. For many of them, the Prince across
:35:23. > :35:27.the wart certificate Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, -- water is Boris
:35:27. > :35:30.Johnson, Mayor of London, old skill and Bullingdon Club chum of David
:35:30. > :35:35.Cameron. I have been talking to him. Does he think Britain will still be
:35:36. > :35:41.in the EU in 2020. All of people who are pro-Europe
:35:41. > :35:45.would, I think, be very, very reluctant to see us leave. All
:35:45. > :35:50.together. That doesn't mean it won't happen? It doesn't. I think
:35:50. > :35:55.what needs to happen now, is we need to have a new relationship
:35:55. > :35:58.with the EU. And what people will say, before you put this to them, I
:35:58. > :36:03.know what the objection will be. They will say this is not on the
:36:03. > :36:08.table. Our partners will never allow this. They will never accept
:36:08. > :36:13.this kind of renegotiation. So I just want to illustrate why I think
:36:13. > :36:20.it is deliverable. First of all you better tell us what it is you think
:36:20. > :36:26.our relationship should be? What it should be is a relationship where
:36:26. > :36:31.he sheare off a lot of the expressances. I don't see a need
:36:31. > :36:35.for us to be in the common fisheries policy. I don't see why
:36:35. > :36:40.we have the Social Chapter affecting bits of employment law
:36:40. > :36:47.that aren't really strictly speaking for us. Are you happy for
:36:47. > :36:52.the Common Agricultural Policy? That should be wholly reformed or
:36:52. > :36:55.repatrioted. We should leave the Common Agricultural Policy? In its
:36:55. > :36:59.current form it is indefensible any way. The question would be either
:36:59. > :37:04.out or staying within the EU, but not part of the Common Agricultural
:37:04. > :37:08.Policy s the Common Fisheries Policy and one or two other things?
:37:08. > :37:11.That's right. It would be membership of an outer teir. Do you
:37:11. > :37:15.think David Cameron can deliver such a thing, a relationship where
:37:15. > :37:19.we are within the European Union, but not part of the common
:37:19. > :37:25.agricultural policy, the Common Fisheries Policy and the other bits
:37:25. > :37:29.and pieces? I do. Shouldn't he tell us what his basic minimum is, then?
:37:29. > :37:34.I'm sure he will reveal all. He has some great speech about this coming
:37:34. > :37:38.up. Here is what I think he should say. What we want to do is end the
:37:38. > :37:44.mystery and mistrust, and stop everybody blaming us for not
:37:44. > :37:52.sharing the zeal of the euro- federates. We don't share that zeal.
:37:52. > :37:58.We don't have any ambition to pool British sovereignty, to create this
:37:58. > :38:03.a plural ld usle state, give us that relationship, you stop blaming
:38:03. > :38:08.us for being the backmarkers, we stop moaning and we have a new
:38:08. > :38:11.treaty. Based on the INGle market, which we put to the British people.
:38:11. > :38:14.At that stage the Prime Minister would have to make it pretty clear
:38:14. > :38:18.that he was going to campaign for that treaty. That would be the deal.
:38:18. > :38:22.Obviously it would be if the people didn't want it, we would leave.
:38:22. > :38:27.that is your view, why did you sign the called people's pledge, which
:38:27. > :38:31.was for an in-out referendum? Because that is is what I'm
:38:31. > :38:36.advocating. The people's pledge, that is your signature on it, the
:38:36. > :38:41.people's pledge did not say this is into a reformed EU, or out all
:38:41. > :38:47.together, it was in or out? But it goes without saying that if people
:38:47. > :38:52.voted against the new relationship I'm decribing, we come out. You
:38:52. > :38:55.have to frame it, one way or the other it has to be framed as an in-
:38:55. > :39:00.out referendum. I'm trying to construct the circumstances in
:39:00. > :39:04.which we would actually keep the benefits of a single market. Just
:39:04. > :39:06.because you sign a pledge for an in-out referendum, it doesn't mean
:39:06. > :39:10.you will automatically campaign to come out of the whole thing. I
:39:10. > :39:19.don't happen to think that is the right position. Don't you think
:39:19. > :39:22.this is matter casiwistical interpretation of your signature?
:39:22. > :39:27.No, not at all, what this country needs is a chance for people to
:39:27. > :39:31.debate the issue and a chance for the public to vote on whether to be
:39:31. > :39:36.members of the EU. Here is the point, if they were to vote to come
:39:36. > :39:42.out, we would be losing, in my view, my judgment, after write beg this
:39:42. > :39:46.for an awfully long time, we would be losing substantial protections
:39:46. > :39:51.for British business, for British enterprise, that eblg cyst within
:39:51. > :39:54.the single market. You -- Exist within the single market. You are
:39:54. > :39:59.want to go stay in the single market, and abide by all the
:39:59. > :40:04.internal market directives? certainly there. Here is a whole
:40:04. > :40:09.pile of them, the control of potato wart disease directive, the control
:40:09. > :40:14.of carnation leaf? That would be a DG60, under the CAP, and it might
:40:14. > :40:18.well be that we could reform that one. What about the one on African
:40:18. > :40:24.horse sickness, do we abide by that one? That is a very nasty Business,
:40:24. > :40:31.injure he moo, if you contracted African -- Jeremy, if you
:40:31. > :40:35.contracted African horse sickness. I would contract anything! These
:40:35. > :40:39.directives, the efficiency of boilers, for example, are we going
:40:39. > :40:43.to have to carry on abiding by that? All these directives we would
:40:43. > :40:47.still have to abide by? I certain lie think it is worth us staying in
:40:47. > :40:52.the single currency. This is your idea of freedom, is it? The African
:40:52. > :40:56.horse directive. You are asking me about all the detail. The African
:40:56. > :41:02.horse disease, or the potato wart, I'm fairly confident would actually
:41:02. > :41:08.turn out to be and come under the broad heading of the CAP. It may be
:41:08. > :41:12.that we could derrogate from that kind of thing. Put yourself in the
:41:12. > :41:17.position of a head of a multinational corporation, I'm sure
:41:17. > :41:20.you have done it many times, would you invest in Britain if there was
:41:20. > :41:22.any uncertainty about whether we would continue to be fully-pledged
:41:22. > :41:26.members of the European Union? Business people don't generally
:41:26. > :41:31.want to get involved in the political debate. I certainly think
:41:31. > :41:35.one of the reasons why I take the position I do, that it would add to
:41:35. > :41:40.people's, to business investors' uncertainty about the UK, in the
:41:40. > :41:45.long-term. I think it might conceivably be a deterrent to
:41:45. > :41:48.foreign direct investment. What might be? If they thought that we
:41:48. > :41:51.were not going to be members of the internal market. That is why I
:41:51. > :41:55.believe that's the right position for the country. So what you say to
:41:55. > :42:00.people is, look, if you, the British people, don't want to be
:42:00. > :42:03.members of the internal market, and you take the, you don't want any
:42:03. > :42:08.directives at all, from any decisions at all to be made in
:42:08. > :42:12.Brussels for the smoothing or easing of trade or removing of non-
:42:12. > :42:16.tarrif barriers to trade, you want us to pull out completely. That
:42:16. > :42:22.will certainly be on the table. They could, by voting against the
:42:22. > :42:26.deal that I'm decribing, they would be voting to come out. Now, I don't
:42:26. > :42:33.happen to think that would be the best way forward. I don't think
:42:33. > :42:36.that would necessarily be the end of the world. People said, when we
:42:36. > :42:42.didn't join the euro, that those buildings over there, the City of
:42:42. > :42:48.London, would collapse, and that great big radioactive rats would
:42:48. > :42:53.crawl out of the gutters and knaw the face of the last British banker,
:42:53. > :42:56.it would be a disaster. It hasn't been a disaster for the country or
:42:56. > :43:02.London. If there was a slightest possibility of David Cameron being
:43:02. > :43:05.unsuccessful in his negotiation, there would bound to be a
:43:05. > :43:09.possibility that we would have to leave the club? Several big ifs
:43:09. > :43:14.there, but I don't think that is likely. Given all those ifs, would
:43:15. > :43:19.you make an investment decision in Britain? I think business would
:43:19. > :43:25.welcome clarity. We have been on this now, for so long, and we
:43:25. > :43:30.haven't had a referendum since 1975. It is perfectly obvious that the
:43:30. > :43:33.Europe question has got to be put to the British people. I think the
:43:33. > :43:37.formula that I have come up with. What is the Europe question? Do you
:43:37. > :43:40.want to be in it or not. Johnson thank you very much.
:43:40. > :43:45.Just in case you are worried about contracting African horse sickness,
:43:45. > :43:50.don't, you would indeed have to be a horse, a mule or donkey, or a
:43:50. > :43:55.zebra, perhaps. The risk of the disease entering this country in
:43:55. > :43:59.any legal trade it thought to be very small. How realistic are Boris
:43:59. > :44:05.Johnson's plans for renegotiating the relationship with the EUU.
:44:05. > :44:12.We're joined by the former -- EU, we're joined by the former Europe
:44:12. > :44:15.Minister now. Supposing David Cameron said we want out of the
:44:15. > :44:19.Common Agricultural Policy and various policies we don't like what
:44:19. > :44:25.would the reaction be of the rest of Europe? I listened with great
:44:25. > :44:31.attention to Mr Johnson, I know that he has a great sense of
:44:31. > :44:35.humour! That is why I wonder if he is being serious. Because, on the
:44:35. > :44:40.one hand, he explains to us that the British people are very
:44:40. > :44:46.miserable in Europe. That it damages its sovereignty, and on the
:44:46. > :44:52.other hand, he wants to renegotiate a treaty, only for the UK. Which
:44:52. > :44:57.means that the UK is going to conclude a treaty with the UK. As
:44:57. > :45:00.perhaps you know, a treaty is a contract between many people, or
:45:01. > :45:08.countries, and I don't think that the Europeans, and especially the
:45:08. > :45:11.French, I think, will accept this proposal. Can I ask you this
:45:11. > :45:17.question, do you think the French would care if Britain decided to
:45:17. > :45:20.leave the EU? I think that, well I'm not the interpreter, neither
:45:21. > :45:30.are the French Government or the French people. But I think that the
:45:31. > :45:31.
:45:31. > :45:35.feeling in Europe, by and large, is that it is time for the British
:45:35. > :45:40.Government, I don't think the British people are so anti-European,
:45:40. > :45:46.not as much so as the British Government, in my view. I think it
:45:46. > :45:52.is time for the moment of truth, and to say that if the UK is still
:45:52. > :46:02.in the EU, why? Because I think that Mr Johnson has lost his memory.
:46:02. > :46:05.
:46:05. > :46:09.The history of Britain is European. If you look back to Geoffrey Howe,
:46:09. > :46:17.the attorney general at that time, he said Europe is solidarity. He
:46:17. > :46:21.said exactly in a famous quotes, "sovereignty is not like virginity",
:46:21. > :46:28.either you have it or you have not. It can be shared. That is the
:46:28. > :46:33.purpose of Europe. If Great Britain wants to build Europe alone, it
:46:33. > :46:41.won't work, and it will be a shame for the British economy. If I can
:46:41. > :46:44.add a word. Thank you very much indeed. Emma Reynolds is the shadow
:46:44. > :46:50.Europe Minister, of the Labour Party. Will the Labour Party give
:46:50. > :46:55.the British people a referendum? in or out? We don't think it is the
:46:55. > :46:57.right time now to hold a referendum. Nobody is suggesting you do it
:46:57. > :47:00.tomorrow? It will depend what happens with the rest of the
:47:00. > :47:04.European Union. The eurozone will integrate more closely it remains
:47:04. > :47:08.to be seen what the relationship between those who are outside the
:47:08. > :47:12.eurozone, and those within the eurozone, will be. You heard Boris
:47:12. > :47:15.Johnson say there were very specific things that he thought a
:47:15. > :47:18.Conservative Government would wish to renegotiate with the rest of
:47:18. > :47:22.Europe, agriculture, fisheries and so on. What would you like to
:47:22. > :47:26.renegotiate? Certainly we would like to see a reform of the Common
:47:26. > :47:30.Agricultural Policy. You wouldn't like to renegotiate anything?
:47:30. > :47:33.he is proposing is totally unrealistic. I'm not interested in
:47:33. > :47:38.what you think of his policies, I'm interested in what your policies
:47:38. > :47:42.are? In Government we said we wanted to look at renegotiating
:47:42. > :47:46.structural funds, European regional policy, but I certainly don't think
:47:46. > :47:51.we want to repatriate things like employment and social legislation,
:47:51. > :47:56.we don't want to repatriate other part of the...You Want to reclaim
:47:56. > :48:00.British fisheries, or stop subsidising French farmers, you
:48:00. > :48:06.don't want to do any that have? get money back from the CAP, we
:48:06. > :48:11.would like to have reform on the CAP and give less money to that.
:48:11. > :48:14.That is a cross-party thing. In order to repatriate the power you
:48:14. > :48:17.would need the agreement of 26 other member states. The Common
:48:18. > :48:23.Market, and the rest of the European Union, is based on a
:48:24. > :48:30.compromise between those 27 member states. And if Britain tries to
:48:30. > :48:33.unpick that, it will all unravel. David Cameron can't do it, it is
:48:33. > :48:37.posturing? I think Boris Johnson is posturing, we will see what he
:48:37. > :48:41.comes up with, his speech has been postponed several times, we will
:48:41. > :48:46.see what he says. Where will we end up after another three or four
:48:46. > :48:51.years? I think the shift in public opinion, and in business opinion,
:48:51. > :48:57.in this country, is so fundamental and so great, that we are seeing
:48:57. > :49:00.big changes in politics. I think that Cameron, whether he likes it
:49:00. > :49:05.or not, will be forced into a referendum. I think he will do
:49:05. > :49:10.everything he can to avoid an in- out referendum. But Labour will,
:49:10. > :49:14.within a couple of days, will match the promise. I think a referendum
:49:14. > :49:18.is coming, by 2016 there will be one. Whether it ends it or not, I
:49:18. > :49:22.don't know, but the 17 European countries are moving towards a full
:49:22. > :49:25.political European. We cannot go on that jouorny. Our relationship will
:49:25. > :49:28.change fundamentally, whether it is as much as I want it to be, in a
:49:28. > :49:32.few years time, I don't know. In the end that is where we are going.
:49:32. > :49:36.You would welcome a referendum, on your side of the fence?
:49:36. > :49:39.referendum is a distraction, but if the people of Britain want it we
:49:39. > :49:42.should have it. Come the moment when the British people look at
:49:42. > :49:45.what it would really mean to leave Europe, they will decide they don't
:49:45. > :49:48.want to do it. They will decide they don't want the economic loss
:49:48. > :49:54.of growth, they don't want to be cut off from the rest of Europe,
:49:54. > :49:59.and they don't want to be alone in the world. Irvine Welsh, briefly,
:49:59. > :50:04.if there is a referendum, would you be in favour of the people of
:50:04. > :50:10.Scotland having a say? You would quite possibly have a scenario
:50:10. > :50:14.whereby you have a British vote about membership of the EC, and
:50:14. > :50:20.Scotland votes to stay in, and England votes to stay out. Then you
:50:20. > :50:24.have a constitutional question, I mean, does England drag Scotland,
:50:24. > :50:30.or is England de facto left leaving the union, and going it alone.
:50:30. > :50:34.would have to man Hadrian's Wall, wouldn't we! There is still the
:50:34. > :50:36.west loathe y'allian question, that is like the west and Lothian
:50:36. > :50:39.question. Thank you very much. That's more
:50:39. > :50:49.than enough for tonight. Kirsty is here tomorrow, until then, good
:50:49. > :51:10.
:51:11. > :51:13.here tomorrow, until then, good night.
:51:13. > :51:17.Hello there, there is nowhere near as much fog around overnight. It
:51:17. > :51:22.will be a frosty start in the morning. Potentially icey in
:51:22. > :51:24.Scotland as well. We have some sleet and snow around the central
:51:24. > :51:27.belt moving northward, leaving behind some patchy fog in the
:51:27. > :51:32.afternoon. That will be affecting the vale of work, potentially. Much
:51:32. > :51:36.more fog in the morning, most lifting. We will see some sunshine
:51:36. > :51:39.developing. Pretty good across the Midland, except for the cold. East
:51:39. > :51:42.Anglia too. Sunshine across the southern counties for a while. Then
:51:42. > :51:47.the cloud increasing and a few spots of rain or drizzle arriving
:51:47. > :51:51.in the south west later in the day. It is here we will have the highest
:51:51. > :51:54.temperatures. Some of the rain thrifting into South Wales, crisp
:51:54. > :51:57.and cold and bright and frosty. An unusually mild start to the day
:51:57. > :52:00.across Northern Ireland. Thanks to the cloud we have at the moment.
:52:00. > :52:06.The sunshine will come through fairly quickly. A lot of cloud for
:52:06. > :52:10.Scotland, and here some snowfall. Early in the morning, as much as
:52:10. > :52:13.five centimeters around the Glasgow area, potentially, working
:52:13. > :52:18.northwards to Inverness. You can see how the temperature change from
:52:18. > :52:22.Thursday to Friday as it turns milder across the north but wetter
:52:22. > :52:27.too. That story is mirrored greater across the south. The low