:00:13. > :00:17.How are you going to pay for your old age? Final salary pension also
:00:17. > :00:21.soon be history, savings are getting little return, if you are
:00:21. > :00:27.16 or 60, do you have a plan? Is it to stay at your desk working
:00:27. > :00:30.until you die? After today's news that companies are kiboshing final
:00:30. > :00:33.salary pensions at a record rate, where should people save?
:00:33. > :00:38.The old pension system worked because the value of shares
:00:38. > :00:43.generally went up, and Government bonds generally delivered a decent
:00:43. > :00:47.income. Now, that's no longer true. We are joined by four people who
:00:47. > :00:53.might have some idea how to salvage our old age.
:00:53. > :00:55.Also tonight, remember this? What happened in Iceland is completely
:00:55. > :01:00.unacceptable, I have been in touch with their Prime Minister, I have
:01:00. > :01:05.said this is effectively illegal. Today Britain lost its claim to get
:01:05. > :01:09.�2.2 billion, given by us to depositors in Iceland's bust banks.
:01:09. > :01:14.I will ask their Finance Minister how we can ever trust her.
:01:14. > :01:18.Mali and French forces retake Timbuktu after a year in Islamist
:01:18. > :01:23.hands. Apparently not in time to stop them burning a library housing
:01:23. > :01:26.thousands of ancient manuscripts. Will the French find winning the
:01:26. > :01:30.peace harder than capturing desert towns.
:01:30. > :01:34.Welcome to Korea's demilitarised zone, the most dangerous border in
:01:34. > :01:44.the world, and a nice spot for tourism and children's English
:01:44. > :01:50.
:01:50. > :01:56.Good evening, who will look after us when we are old, how should we
:01:56. > :02:00.look after ourselves? Last year 31% of called defined pension benefits
:02:00. > :02:03.pension schemes, where the payout is related to your salary, closed,
:02:03. > :02:09.according to the National Association of Pension Funds today.
:02:09. > :02:14.With interest rates low, returns from bonds very low and the stock
:02:14. > :02:19.market below its peak, most of us are struggling to provide provision.
:02:19. > :02:25.Whether you are middle-aged and wondering about retiring, or young
:02:25. > :02:28.and not worried about saving, is retirement slipping from our grasp.
:02:28. > :02:32.In the golden age of the pension, this is how it used to work, you
:02:32. > :02:35.plodded along, saving some of your wages, and putting them into stocks
:02:36. > :02:40.and shares, that grew in value, like this, the graph of the FTSE.
:02:40. > :02:46.There were ups and down, but never violent. Then things went violently
:02:46. > :02:51.well, and then they went violently haywire. In the process, a lot of
:02:51. > :02:54.people fell out of the system. And now, the golden age is gone.
:02:54. > :03:00.Students bracing themselves for the transition to work will find
:03:00. > :03:03.pension funds largely closed to them. Just 13% still open to new
:03:03. > :03:06.joiners. These were figures released today. On today's figure,
:03:06. > :03:10.a young person leaving university this year, and joining a private
:03:10. > :03:15.company, has, maybe, a one in ten chance of joining that company's
:03:15. > :03:20.pension scheme, and the reasons for that are economic uncertainty, and
:03:20. > :03:26.the certainty of ageing. So this generation will have to
:03:26. > :03:30.save on their own. Challenges for them, challenging for the whole
:03:30. > :03:33.future structure of capitalism. an environment where we are living
:03:33. > :03:37.long e any Government has to deal with that. Occupational pension
:03:37. > :03:41.schemes are in decline as well. The things that we are all faced with,
:03:41. > :03:45.ultimately we have to look at waiting longer for state benefits.
:03:45. > :03:49.We have to look at possibly to working longer, or alternatively we
:03:49. > :03:54.have to look at saving earlier. This month, the Government
:03:54. > :03:57.signalled the introduction of a flat rate state pension, worth
:03:57. > :04:03.�7,488 a year. To get anything above that, in the future, you will
:04:03. > :04:09.have to save a lot. Just to earn the median wage of �21,000 a year,
:04:09. > :04:13.at the age of 65, your savings would have to be worth �4 10,000,
:04:13. > :04:17.to earn �42,000, the average wage of a train driver, would you need
:04:17. > :04:23.more than a million. The earlier you save the better you get from
:04:23. > :04:25.compound growth over many years, it is easy to focus on what you have
:04:25. > :04:28.to wave save, that can be significant. The sooner you save
:04:29. > :04:32.the better it will be in the long- term. What are you supposed to
:04:32. > :04:36.save? Real wages have fallen in value, and where are you supposed
:04:36. > :04:40.to put your savings? Once that was a no-brainer, the answer was shares,
:04:40. > :04:44.or equities, as they are called. But not for this generation.
:04:44. > :04:49.used to be very much the case that when you looked at the UK equity
:04:49. > :04:53.market, you could think of it as something we held stake in via our
:04:53. > :04:56.pensions. The pensions held huge amounts of blue chip equities, now
:04:56. > :05:00.they don't, they hold overseas equities, hedge funds, and in the
:05:00. > :05:04.main, Government bonds. The UK equity market is no longer really
:05:04. > :05:08.owned by the UK population, that's a big shift.
:05:08. > :05:12.For people in their 40s and 50s, there is a pension crisis of a
:05:12. > :05:17.different type. Today's survey of pension funds found one third of
:05:17. > :05:21.funds have closed contributions for existing members. Plus, the Bank of
:05:22. > :05:25.England's decision to print money has lowered the interest payments
:05:25. > :05:30.on Government bonds, to below inflation. So savers are actually
:05:30. > :05:35.losing money by lending it to the Treasury. In the golden era of
:05:35. > :05:40.company pension, the majority of a pension fund was invested in
:05:40. > :05:45.company shares, and the rest in Government bonds, here and abroad.
:05:45. > :05:50.As late as 2002, 61% of UK pensions were in shares, a third in bonds,
:05:50. > :05:55.and everything else, including in cash, came to 6%. Now that has
:05:55. > :05:57.pension money was in the stock market, 37% was in bonds, but 18%
:05:57. > :06:02.is now in assets deemed to have a better chance of avoiding losses,
:06:02. > :06:06.or wipouts. That is a mixture of gold, derivatives, based on
:06:06. > :06:10.commodities, hedge funds, and property. If you have a final
:06:10. > :06:13.salary pension, you generally have no problems at all, you have a
:06:13. > :06:17.guaranteed pension that will rise with inflation until you die. This
:06:17. > :06:25.is a wonderful thing. If you don't have a final salary pension you
:06:25. > :06:29.bond markets will go and interest rates will go, and what annuity
:06:29. > :06:36.rates will be. You have no choice but to keep saving and saving and
:06:36. > :06:39.The old pension system worked because the value of shares
:06:39. > :06:44.generally went up, and Government bonds generally delivered a decent
:06:44. > :06:51.income. Now, that's no longer true, and it poses big problems, not just
:06:51. > :06:56.for the pension system, but for the very shape of capitalism theself.
:06:56. > :07:04.The caench is forcing people to spend -- the credit crunch is
:07:04. > :07:09.forcing people to spend less and this at some point will have to
:07:09. > :07:13.change. Some feel the collapse of permanent dent in our willingness
:07:13. > :07:18.to spend. When you have doubt about your future income and how
:07:18. > :07:23.on your consumption in your late 40s, early 50s, 60s, that is
:07:24. > :07:30.Uncertainty is a great enemy of economic growth of every kind.
:07:30. > :07:37.it comes to pension, the economics of uncertainty are what define the
:07:37. > :07:45.future. Here we have Otto Thoresen, Adrian
:07:45. > :07:50.Hartshorn, the partner at Mercer director general of Saga, and
:07:51. > :08:00.former Government adviser on Financial Times. We will all shoot
:08:01. > :08:03.
:08:03. > :08:05.salary pension of the average wage, �400,000 away in your working life.
:08:05. > :08:09.For most people that seems impossible now? To start with it is
:08:09. > :08:13.important to understand this other factor of the fact we are living
:08:13. > :08:18.longer. Exactly. That is a really important positive aspect of what
:08:18. > :08:22.is happening here. When Lord Turner did his review years ago, he said
:08:22. > :08:29.the answer was partly working longer, partly saving more and
:08:29. > :08:39.partly the state pension and what have to look at that at a package
:08:39. > :08:45.
:08:45. > :08:48.are in your 40s or 50s, saving on should blow it, what is the point
:08:48. > :08:51.of living to a poor old age? think if you look at it from the
:08:51. > :08:58.other perspective, I have a 21- year-old son, I'm close to this.
:08:58. > :09:02.The fact is, if you are 20 now p and you are looking out -- and you
:09:03. > :09:10.are looking out 40, 50 years, we shouldn't be depressed over markets
:09:10. > :09:14.to have a belief that with economic growth, and with markets going up,
:09:14. > :09:18.that returns will come through again. I believe with economic
:09:18. > :09:23.growth forecast in the next decade, Gillian Tett, if you are between
:09:23. > :09:30.20-30 you will have to save an awful lot to give you any kind of
:09:30. > :09:33.return when you are 65, 70? If you retire at 65 any more. The good
:09:33. > :09:41.news is we are living longer. That is good. The other piece of good
:09:41. > :09:50.the pensions crisis has been swept under the carpet, because it is a
:09:50. > :09:52.to talk about it. Also, you know, these very, very low bond returns,
:09:52. > :09:56.a real problem, the Government shoves all this money into the
:09:56. > :10:01.economy, depresses interest rates, and so, in a sense, screws people
:10:01. > :10:05.over both ways? I think what the Bank of England hasn't understood
:10:05. > :10:09.is just how much our pensions system is underpinned by long-term
:10:09. > :10:13.Government bond yields. By depressing long-term Government
:10:13. > :10:18.bond yields, the Government has basically devalued everybody's
:10:18. > :10:26.pensions and made it much more pensions. I think we need to get
:10:26. > :10:27.away, in way, from the idea that we need re-think our whole
:10:27. > :10:31.lifestyle. There is a whole new...We Can't guarantee new huge
:10:31. > :10:34.growth in the next ten years or bond yields being better? It is not
:10:34. > :10:40.just about saving. This is about our lives. Pensions are just one
:10:40. > :10:44.aspect of how we are going to live in later life. You can have part-
:10:44. > :10:48.time work. It is so complicated. People don't understand. Is part of
:10:48. > :10:56.the problem branding. I can remember when you are 18 or 20 you
:10:56. > :11:06.hear about the pensions and you challenges as a society we need to
:11:06. > :11:14.
:11:14. > :11:22.term. We have seen the changes in just about the Government saying
:11:22. > :11:29.they will increase the state proportion of people drawing the
:11:29. > :11:32.it is more people drawing the state pension? And fewer and fewer people
:11:32. > :11:37.paying taxs to provide those. Before we talk about solutions,
:11:38. > :11:47.back to the insurers, you charge the development of fees over the
:11:48. > :11:48.
:11:48. > :11:54.products that we sell into the work place now are historically low.
:11:54. > :12:00.We're talking about 50 basis points a very charge. I'm with Ros on this,
:12:00. > :12:10.about managing your debt, it is going to develop your life, and it
:12:10. > :12:11.
:12:11. > :12:18.money from the industry? I think we need to get away from the industry
:12:18. > :12:22.that the industry is going to solve the problem for us. We have to get
:12:22. > :12:32.real about pensions, we haven't done. There is no magic money tree
:12:32. > :12:37.
:12:37. > :12:39.that pensions will be daing -- to be more focus on financial
:12:39. > :12:43.literacy. I'm strongly in favour of teaching financial literacy, along
:12:43. > :12:47.with maths at school, right from the get-go. One of the problems
:12:47. > :12:51.about this, which people don't often talk about. As people live
:12:51. > :12:56.for a longer time, it is very tempt to go say everyone should simply
:12:56. > :12:59.work a lot longer, that is wait the country like America. The reality
:12:59. > :13:04.is, the people who live longer and are healthier, tend to be the
:13:04. > :13:14.better off. The people who can do what you are saying, think about
:13:14. > :13:16.
:13:16. > :13:20.society. We don't have a culture, salary pension, we don't have a
:13:20. > :13:24.That is part of the problem, that is the air of unreality that has
:13:24. > :13:28.been around for far too long. We expect somebody to provide a
:13:28. > :13:32.pension for. Actually, from now on, and it should have been from quite
:13:32. > :13:38.a while a you are on your own. Tough make a plan. The Government
:13:38. > :13:48.we can argue about the age at which it will start to be paid. But there
:13:48. > :13:48.
:13:48. > :13:58.want more than, that and most Is it a mix of trying to buy
:13:58. > :14:01.property, put some gold away? have seen defined benefits scheme,
:14:01. > :14:05.which essentially provide guarantee, we know guarantees cost money.
:14:05. > :14:11.Equitable *Life got into trouble with a load of guarantees in the
:14:11. > :14:19.products, and we know what happened to them. We know that providing
:14:19. > :14:22.Equally defined contribution, which financial education, and really
:14:22. > :14:25.quite sophisticated planning around those, ultimately it won't deliver,
:14:25. > :14:31.because of the uncertainty around them. So we really need to think
:14:31. > :14:35.somewhere in the middle space, around what's commonly being
:14:35. > :14:40.determined as defined ambition. Something with a relatively low
:14:40. > :14:45.level of guarantee. Restricted ambition this is? But some sort of
:14:45. > :14:50.level of top up, which is not guaranteed, that allows people to
:14:50. > :14:56.make some financial decisions. Sorry, you know, interest rates,
:14:56. > :15:00.are they ever going to go up, go up evently but if you want to
:15:00. > :15:07.understand why they may not go up fast. Look at Japan. I fully agree,
:15:07. > :15:11.thing crystal clear, it would be foolhardy to put all your money
:15:11. > :15:14.into Government bonds today. What is going on today is a form of what
:15:14. > :15:18.economists call financial repression, the Government is
:15:18. > :15:25.trying to pay off the national debt by essentially having a stealth tax
:15:25. > :15:28.of them, then you are essentially going to lose money. It is very
:15:28. > :15:33.worrying that the pension fund industry right now is dashing into
:15:33. > :15:38.Government bonds. They are sold as the place to put your money in for
:15:38. > :15:43.safety? They are supposed to be risk-free. And interest-free?
:15:43. > :15:47.tend to draw the broad conclusions from aggregate data. It is not
:15:47. > :15:50.aggregate data, it is a series of different sets of pension
:15:50. > :15:54.arrangements. What should people do? I'm going back to the point I
:15:54. > :15:56.was going to make earlier. It is easy to get tied up in discussing
:15:56. > :16:01.aspects of investment returns, we should look at some of the very
:16:01. > :16:04.positive things that have happened in the last five or ten years. We
:16:04. > :16:08.have had some consistency in pension policy, we have had pretty
:16:08. > :16:11.well consensus across parties about putting the pension reform agenda
:16:11. > :16:15.in. That is a significant step forward. Millions of people are
:16:15. > :16:19.going to be brought into pension saving over the next two to three
:16:19. > :16:29.years. We had the announcement last week about the single-teir state
:16:29. > :16:30.
:16:30. > :16:40.want. That is very positive I think. Thank you very much.
:16:40. > :16:41.
:16:41. > :16:49.assets under anti-terror laws, bust. He maybe long gone, but the -
:16:49. > :16:56.- he may be long gone, but the to be repaid the money he gave
:16:56. > :17:06.The Treasury is still �2.2 billion out of pocket, but a ruling today
:17:06. > :17:07.
:17:07. > :17:13.Are your savings not safe in a foreign bank?
:17:13. > :17:18.Before the financial crisis Iceland was best known here for its geezer,
:17:18. > :17:26.glaciers and Miss World victories. Then Iceland's banks went bust,
:17:26. > :17:31.taking the country down with it in 2008. The collapse affected 230,000
:17:31. > :17:33.UK deposors, whose savings in savings of �2.2 billion had to be
:17:33. > :17:43.repaid bit Treasury here, which promptly demanded the money back
:17:43. > :17:46.from Reykjavik, roughly half of that sum has been repaid already.
:17:46. > :17:50.Today's European Free Trade Association court ruling, doesn't
:17:50. > :17:57.affect the dozens of British local authorities, which also parked
:17:57. > :18:03.almost �1 billion of council tax payers' money with Iceland savings
:18:03. > :18:09.accounts. It means the Icelandic Government wasn't obliged to recur
:18:09. > :18:13.the debts of privately-owned banks. Bjork k excited about it in a tweet.
:18:13. > :18:17.The implications could be very important for Iceland, Britain and
:18:17. > :18:22.the rest of the EU. This is good news for everybody involved. For
:18:22. > :18:28.Iceland it has been under considerable uncertainty because of
:18:28. > :18:36.it, now it is lifted it can get on rebuilding its economy. This is
:18:36. > :18:42.also a blessing in disguise for the have been obliged to provide
:18:42. > :18:49.Government gauorns for bank deposits d guarantees, for bank
:18:49. > :18:53.times. The then Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, oped a diplomatic
:18:53. > :18:58.wound between London and Reykjavik, when he evoked anti-terror laws to
:18:58. > :19:01.seize all Icelandic financial assets. What happened in Iceland is
:19:01. > :19:06.completely unacceptable. I have been in touch with the Icelandic
:19:06. > :19:11.Prime Minister, I I have said this is illegal action they have taken,
:19:11. > :19:17.we are freezing the asset of Icelandic companies in the UK where
:19:17. > :19:25.against the Icelandic authorities, wherever that is necessary to
:19:25. > :19:28.recover the money. Being lumped in people twice rejected a plan to
:19:28. > :19:32.repay Britain in separate referenda. Four years on and the new UK
:19:32. > :19:36.Government is quite sanguine with today's ruling, which can't be
:19:36. > :19:43.repealed, that is because it has received most of the money back
:19:43. > :19:47.from the bank that used to cone i sap sld save, the message is
:19:47. > :19:54.regulators and legislators weren't doing their job up to the 2008
:19:54. > :20:01.financial crisis but they are now. Five years on and quite a few barn
:20:01. > :20:10.doors have been bolted with regards to financial regulation. Deposited
:20:11. > :20:15.law, but savers will think twice before putting large sums in
:20:15. > :20:25.Icelandic banks. Good evening minister. You still
:20:25. > :20:29.
:20:29. > :20:34.this morning, of course we welcome it in Iceland, because it takes a
:20:34. > :20:41.lot of legal uncertainties and puts it aside. It is also very important
:20:41. > :20:46.to state that the estate of the failed bank will continue to pay
:20:46. > :20:53.out priority claims to the depositors and creditors. As they
:20:53. > :20:59.lot of the money has already been paid off? They have been doing that.
:20:59. > :21:05.But it is �2.2 billion left? There are about 50% of the priority
:21:05. > :21:07.claims already paid out. The estate will continue to pay priority
:21:07. > :21:13.claims. It is estimated that the priority claims can't be and will
:21:13. > :21:20.be repaid in full. That is the good news for everybody. I know that the
:21:20. > :21:24.Icelandic people felt very put upon by Gordon Brown when he evoked
:21:24. > :21:30.these anti-terror law, was the British Government wrong to give
:21:30. > :21:35.money back to British depositors in Icelandic banks without knowing if
:21:35. > :21:44.it would get the money back? Like I said, the estate is, it is
:21:44. > :21:51.able to pay back -- the estate will priority claims. How long do you
:21:51. > :22:01.been able to pay out, or the estate has already paid out about 50%, so,
:22:01. > :22:07.estimating that this can happen quite rapidly in the near future.
:22:07. > :22:16.But this is possible because the Icelandic parliament implemented,
:22:16. > :22:23.in October of 2008, an emergency this can happen now, and that's why
:22:23. > :22:30.we are able to do this. Do you think that foreign investors should
:22:30. > :22:36.deposit money in small countries? When this all happened the banks
:22:36. > :22:41.were nine-times the size of just back off the economies of
:22:41. > :22:51.small countries when they come to make deposits? Well, I think that
:22:51. > :22:52.
:22:52. > :22:54.this a sad history, a sad story, very heavy and important learning
:22:54. > :22:58.process for all of us. And all the regulatory framework that the
:22:58. > :23:04.Icelandic Government has been implementing in the past four years
:23:04. > :23:09.has all had the aim of and the goal that this could not happen again.
:23:09. > :23:15.That is very, very important. I think that we were, our regulatory
:23:15. > :23:22.framework was not strong enough, and this is something that we have
:23:22. > :23:29.learned and we have changed. A lot of what you have done to stablise
:23:29. > :23:37.bondholders sink and so forth, you could never have done, had you been
:23:37. > :23:41.within the EU, and yet I understand EU? Well, we have a very, you could
:23:41. > :23:46.say we have a very different situation than many other European
:23:46. > :23:51.countries. We are a very small nation, with our other currency. We
:23:51. > :23:55.are only 230,000 people. It is very difficult to manage the kuorn --
:23:55. > :24:00.320,000 people. It was difficult to manage the currency once the bank
:24:00. > :24:05.fell. We needed capital controls, otherwise things would have gotten
:24:05. > :24:12.a lot, lot worse here in Iceland. I think that we have, the capital
:24:12. > :24:20.controls, and the reasons why they a lot of understanding on that
:24:20. > :24:24.situation. But it is our aim, and the past four years, in
:24:24. > :24:34.strengthening our economy so that we can start lifting the capital
:24:34. > :24:39.
:24:39. > :24:48.years. Hopefully we will not have capital controls for very long.
:24:48. > :24:58.we are going to get the money back, but can we trust you? Like I said,
:24:58. > :25:01.
:25:01. > :25:06.been paying out to priority claims, and the estate of the failed bank
:25:06. > :25:10.will continue to do so. Even though this ruling was like it was this
:25:10. > :25:15.morning. But I think the main and the best thing about the ruling
:25:15. > :25:21.this morning is that now this uncertainty is out of the way, and
:25:21. > :25:27.we can move on and leave this sad Thank you very much for joining us
:25:27. > :25:32.tonight. The French-led offensive in Mali
:25:32. > :25:35.has succeeded in dislodging Islamist rebels from the northern
:25:35. > :25:38.town and fabled town of Timbuktu. After a year in control they have
:25:38. > :25:42.left many of the holy shrines and monuments smashed to pieces. As
:25:42. > :25:46.they pulled out, they have apparently set fire to a library,
:25:46. > :25:51.the Ahmed Baba Institute, which contains thousands of priceless
:25:51. > :25:55.documents stating back to the 13th sent treatment one of the greatest
:25:55. > :26:02.likeies of Islamic manuscripts in the world. We will talk about that
:26:02. > :26:10.in a moment. First of all from Mali. Can you tell us the latest from
:26:10. > :26:15.Timbuktu? Well, yes. As you say, we understand from malian official
:26:16. > :26:21.was set ablaze four days ago by Islamist rebels, as they began to
:26:21. > :26:28.flee from the town, ahead of the French advance. The institute
:26:28. > :26:33.contains about 20,000 manuscripts, dating from the golden age of
:26:33. > :26:37.Timbuktu as a great centre of Islamic learning, manuscripts about
:26:37. > :26:41.science, learning and history, all housed in this brand-new research
:26:41. > :26:44.institute, funded by the South African Government. Precisely
:26:45. > :26:49.intended to preserve those manuscripts for posterity. They are
:26:49. > :26:53.not the only manuscripts in Tim but tu, there are several hundred
:26:53. > :27:00.thousand in private collections as well. This was the main single
:27:00. > :27:05.damage was done. But we understand there has been considerable damage,
:27:05. > :27:11.there has been considerable losses there. Let's talk now about the
:27:11. > :27:17.advance of the French and the malian Government. Do you think
:27:18. > :27:22.that -- Malian Government. Do you think the Islamist rebels are
:27:22. > :27:27.fainting back, what will be the town in the north still in the
:27:27. > :27:31.hands of the rebels. We expect now that the French will probably
:27:31. > :27:35.retake that in the next few days. What President Hollande has said,
:27:35. > :27:38.military intervention in Mali will be over. The French will retire to
:27:38. > :27:43.their bases, after that they will have a support and training role
:27:43. > :27:47.for Malian and other west African troops, who will be expected to
:27:47. > :27:52.complete the conquest of the north, and then hold the territory. The
:27:52. > :28:02.big question is how difficult a job will that be. Where exactly are
:28:02. > :28:08.have the rebels now gone. Will they guerrilla war of the kind we have
:28:08. > :28:11.seen for decades in this part of intelligence believes is some of
:28:11. > :28:18.these Islamist leaders have already gone to the mountains, where there
:28:18. > :28:22.is a well-established cave complex in the far north of Mali. We have
:28:22. > :28:27.heard from Malian military sources that they believe some of the
:28:27. > :28:37.rebels are now hiding in Timbuktu and other towns, and they pose a
:28:37. > :28:40.
:28:40. > :28:50.into the north, and refugees return, we will see a lot of people being
:28:50. > :28:51.
:28:51. > :28:54.accused of being infiltrators and talk about developments in Mali, we
:28:54. > :29:00.have a Tuareg sociologist, Sufiah Yusof, Noman Benotman, a former
:29:00. > :29:03.Libyan Jihadi, now of the counter extremist, Quilliam Foundation, and
:29:03. > :29:08.Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, we will talk about
:29:08. > :29:12.the library in a moment. First of all, Dr Yusof, do you think, when
:29:13. > :29:18.you hear it said that there may be a regrouping, and there maybe
:29:18. > :29:25.further activities by the Islamists, what is your view of what is
:29:25. > :29:34.happening at the moment? I think that this is the first step.
:29:34. > :29:39.Probably the Islamists will melt a. Will they come back, as he said?
:29:39. > :29:48.they have their opportunities, and the means, perhaps. If they can't
:29:48. > :29:53.do that, perhaps they will resort to other things, dirty terrorism in
:29:53. > :29:59.cities and things like that. Wherever they find easy targets.
:29:59. > :30:08.Ian Bremmer, just on the basis of what Dr Yusof says, do you think
:30:08. > :30:14.the French might be embroiled for be? It is clear that Hollande
:30:14. > :30:17.easier battle at the beginning, he had to walk that back today. He
:30:17. > :30:20.said today the French are wing so far. I remember when President Bush
:30:20. > :30:25.said mission accomplished in Afghanistan, it didn't go well for
:30:25. > :30:29.them. 60% of French supported it at the beginning, I bet if you took a
:30:29. > :30:36.poll that will still be already going down. They will be there in
:30:37. > :30:41.six months time. My colleague is of biding their time or urban
:30:41. > :30:47.insurgency, or waiting to see attacks against French civilians in
:30:47. > :30:54.Mali or closer to home, it could be France. There are a lot of folks
:30:54. > :30:59.object of global war on terror was the US, today it is France. This
:30:59. > :31:04.you heard it said there that there is some idea that the groups are
:31:04. > :31:09.disappeared to the mountains, but some are still local? Some of them,
:31:10. > :31:18.of course, I agree what was said from Timbuktu, it is well known the
:31:18. > :31:24.tactics by all the Salafi Jihadists, I would rather say that rather than
:31:24. > :31:34.Islamists. They want different things? Yes, there is two main
:31:34. > :31:39.
:31:39. > :31:44.largest guerrilla warfare in the about them, the war is against them,
:31:44. > :31:54.the other one more dangerous, a very low level urban guerrilla
:31:54. > :31:58.
:31:58. > :32:02.warfare. What do the Tuaregs want? They want good governance. Under
:32:02. > :32:09.this Malian Government? Under this Malian Government, they have never
:32:09. > :32:17.been generally seperatist, I don't think so. Of course there was this
:32:17. > :32:24.declaration of independence, but it was more, I think, sort of part of
:32:24. > :32:34.a bargaining strategy. So the Tuareg, and the other groups are
:32:34. > :32:34.
:32:34. > :32:37.not aligned in terms of their talking about. There is all sorts
:32:37. > :32:44.of different sub-Al-Qaeda groups, and different conversations about
:32:44. > :32:52.who else is out there? Al-Qaeda is not the same thing as the Tuareg.
:32:52. > :33:00.No, of course not. The other people, the inhabitants of the northern
:33:00. > :33:05.part of Mali, there are Arabs, there are all of them, what they
:33:05. > :33:10.want is basically a good governance. They want good governance, and they
:33:10. > :33:17.are not getting it, where do the Americans stand on this? It seems
:33:17. > :33:19.very clear that Barack Obama is not on for any for moreen adventures?
:33:19. > :33:23.It is very clear, the -- Foreign adventures? It is clear the United
:33:23. > :33:28.States is providing refuelling and transport, we are picking up French
:33:28. > :33:32.soldier, bringing them to Mali and going back. We are OK with that. We
:33:33. > :33:37.have 60,000 plus dead in Syria and no appetite for that. President
:33:37. > :33:41.Obama's inAugustation speech is focusing on nation-building at home.
:33:41. > :33:49.We are reducing adventure in the Middle East not increasing it.
:33:49. > :33:58.Let's move on to talk about what we think has happened, this burning of
:33:59. > :34:03.that there are hundreds of hands, the building of the
:34:03. > :34:06.collection was going on day by day, how important was the collection?
:34:06. > :34:14.It is hard to estimate how many documents were damaged and how many
:34:14. > :34:18.are still in good shape. Of course historically it is just such a rich
:34:19. > :34:25.heritage, a treasure. If it disappears, it would be such a
:34:25. > :34:31.disaster, actually. Much of it is about the flowering of Malian
:34:31. > :34:39.cultural life around Timbuktu in the 14th and 15th centuries, we
:34:39. > :34:49.haven't had a huge cache of documents like that before?
:34:49. > :34:51.
:34:51. > :34:59.really, if these documents we lose this documentation. When it
:34:59. > :35:04.the rebels would burn it? Because Look, first of all, I think I still
:35:04. > :35:09.have a of doubt if they really burned all of it. Because I know
:35:09. > :35:16.they have something with some specific documents or manuscripts,
:35:16. > :35:21.it has to do with sufficientism, they have a strong ideolgical
:35:21. > :35:26.Sufism. Sufi documents have already been destroyed? They think it is
:35:26. > :35:32.they are leaving the down, it is a religious duty. Do you think they
:35:32. > :35:40.still have a lot of doubt about what kind of damage. It has not
:35:40. > :35:45.lot of conflicting reports. If it is true, Dr Youssouf, how
:35:45. > :35:55.cultural heritage to have lost this material? I think it would be a
:35:55. > :35:55.
:35:55. > :36:01.very sad thing. But what I would like to say about this, is Malians,
:36:01. > :36:11.ought to take advantage of their culture while it is there. And not
:36:11. > :36:21.
:36:21. > :36:27.wait until it is not there to capitalise on it. To get everything
:36:27. > :36:37.they can get out of it. Because once it is not there, then it is a
:36:37. > :36:42.problem. I think it is not enough to have manuscripts in a place like
:36:42. > :36:52.the Ahmed Baba Institute. What is more important, it is like having
:36:52. > :36:56.
:36:56. > :37:05.pieces in a museum, what is more important is promoting the cultural
:37:05. > :37:07.heritage, and helping people be aware of that heritage. Helping
:37:07. > :37:12.them to incorporate it in their own intelligence.
:37:12. > :37:15.Thank you very much. The US and Japan today agreed to work closely
:37:15. > :37:19.with South Korea to dissuade North Korea from carrying out what is
:37:19. > :37:22.called a nuclear test of a higher level. However, the north Korean
:37:22. > :37:26.news agency announced that forcing the country to give up the right to
:37:26. > :37:30.satellite launch is a little short of pressurising it to abandon its
:37:30. > :37:34.sovereignty. So South Korea remains constantly alert to attack, and the
:37:34. > :37:40.rare attempt at defection. Newsnight was given extraordinary
:37:40. > :37:47.access to the closed border area, frozen in time since the end of the
:37:47. > :37:54.Korean War. Every day, for 6 years, someone has
:37:54. > :37:58.patrolled the world's last Cold War frontier. Today it is Lieutenant
:37:58. > :38:02.Yoo Hak-joo, a baby-faced 24-year- old, a love of long distance
:38:02. > :38:06.running and a girlfriend who worries back home. The South Korean
:38:06. > :38:15.army unit he leads are known as Flying Dragons, the small stprech
:38:15. > :38:20.of border they defend, -- stretch of the border they defend is bleak
:38:20. > :38:24.and the facilities rudimentry, and the temperatures today below minus
:38:24. > :38:30.20. Twice a day the Lieutenant and his men walk the Armistice Line
:38:30. > :38:32.drawn by the United Nations 20 years a checking for any signs of
:38:32. > :38:35.disturbance in South Korea's perimeter fence. This is where the
:38:35. > :38:40.two sides in the Korean War stood when the fighting stopped. South
:38:40. > :38:44.Korea and the US on this side, North Korea and China on the other.
:38:44. > :38:49.Not much has changed here since. The old enemy, North Korea, begins
:38:49. > :38:54.just over a mill away, across a buffer zone, packed with land mines.
:38:54. > :38:59.And, on the southern side, telephones, rigged up moing the
:38:59. > :39:05.mines for stray defectors -- rigged up among the mines for stray
:39:05. > :39:11.defectors to call across, the army wouldn't say when they last called.
:39:11. > :39:16.The food isn't bad, one of the conscriptss is a trainee chef.
:39:16. > :39:20.Every man has not chosen to be here, in Japan you serve two years
:39:20. > :39:27.national service. The Government has talked about bringing it down.
:39:27. > :39:32.But with the birth rate declining some are worried it will leave the
:39:32. > :39:35.country vulnerable. Some already know what vulnerable is all about.
:39:35. > :39:40.TRANSLATION: It is less about hierarchy more about brotherhood,
:39:40. > :39:45.we eat, sleep and lead together. It is high-stress but I lead my men to
:39:45. > :39:48.do our duty. Any hesitation could lead to my family, the Korean
:39:48. > :39:51.people and my friends to be in danger. We need to be ready to
:39:51. > :39:58.defend this position with everything we have got. We need to
:39:58. > :40:01.be mentally prepared. For the soldiers here, two 2kms away, North
:40:02. > :40:05.Korea can seem especially threatening. This frontier is
:40:05. > :40:09.scattered with old battles, and the last military conflict between the
:40:09. > :40:13.north and the south was two years ago. In his new year's address this
:40:13. > :40:17.year, the north Korean leader talked about ending confrontation
:40:17. > :40:22.with the south. And with South Korea, China and Japan, all
:40:22. > :40:28.starting this year with new leaders, many people are hoping there's a
:40:28. > :40:34.chance for a political this aw. Since then -- thaw. Since then
:40:34. > :40:39.north crowia has defied the UN and announced it will launch long-range
:40:39. > :40:43.rockets and carry out a third nuclear test. The live fire
:40:43. > :40:46.exercises aren't for show. One young recruit told me he gets most
:40:46. > :40:50.scared at night listening to gunfire from the north. Scared
:40:50. > :40:55.perhaps that this could happen again. Just a few miles away from
:40:55. > :41:00.the Lieutenant's stretch of the boarder, lies Gloster Hill, where
:41:00. > :41:05.British servicemen, fighting with their American allies 60 years ago,
:41:05. > :41:09.watched their regiment overrun by the Chinese army. There weren't
:41:09. > :41:17.many left alive to remember it. They kept coming. When they came
:41:17. > :41:22.they did come, and in great numbers. You know. When we were on Gloster
:41:22. > :41:26.Hill, all you could see was the hills covered in them, like ants.
:41:26. > :41:31.You would look around there, they were on that hill, that hill, keep
:41:31. > :41:36.looking around. That was it. He this just kept coming. These days,
:41:36. > :41:41.it is Korean soldiers who stand eyeball-to-eyeball at the border's
:41:41. > :41:45.only Joint Security Area. North and south, 24-hours a day, guarding the
:41:46. > :41:50.line of control inside the UN compound. The list of rules for
:41:50. > :41:55.visitors here reflects just how tense relations have remained, no
:41:56. > :42:03.pointing, no shouting, and until recently, no blue jeans.
:42:03. > :42:13.It has been so long, though, that the uneasy truce has become almost
:42:13. > :42:13.
:42:13. > :42:17.good money to visit a piece of the of South Korea's top tourist sites,
:42:17. > :42:27.even with visiting Chinese. There are gift shops, message boards, and
:42:27. > :42:32.
:42:32. > :42:37.statues to take your photo with. only one school to choose from. And
:42:37. > :42:42.the English lessons, given by real American soldiers are perhaps the
:42:42. > :42:47.biggest draw. But, this is still the frontline,
:42:47. > :42:51.in an unresolved conflict between a heavily-armed communist state, and
:42:51. > :42:54.its capitalist arch enemy. One in Asia could change very quickly.
:42:55. > :43:04.One man, who knows what it is like to eyeball your brother enemy each
:43:04. > :43:09.day is Taishou, now a financial an -- Taishou it a, now a financial an
:43:09. > :43:15.cyst, he was, two years ago, one of the soldiers guarding the blue huts
:43:15. > :43:25.along the line of control. It was so tense at the frontier, he said
:43:25. > :43:29.he never slept very well, everyone between the two lines every day.
:43:29. > :43:35.One day when I was patrolling, one guard from North Korea called my
:43:35. > :43:42.name. I was so surprised the first time, but I felt this feeling of
:43:42. > :43:52.friendship, they actually called my name. We are the same Koreans, we
:43:52. > :43:56.
:43:56. > :44:06.When we lock at their mouths, they They swear at us. Do you mouth bad
:44:06. > :44:08.
:44:08. > :44:15.recorded in there, we have no chance to contact them in person or
:44:15. > :44:17.in facial expressions, that is not Metropilis is 30 miles from the
:44:17. > :44:23.frontline, one reason why the US army has its main military base
:44:23. > :44:27.here, on a slice of prime real estate, bang in the middle of the
:44:27. > :44:32.capital. The razor wire against the neon of Seoul's party district.
:44:32. > :44:35.There are 28,000 American troops still based here, in the next
:44:35. > :44:45.couple of years, half those bases, including most of this one, will
:44:45. > :44:46.
:44:46. > :44:54.close, and the troops will move to is where they are moving to. The
:44:54. > :45:04.town of Pyeongtaek, 06 miles south, 60 miles south, they will be out of
:45:04. > :45:04.
:45:04. > :45:11.this new location gives them more military, just on the other side of
:45:11. > :45:17.this sea here, many people are bond whaerg the future will look like?
:45:17. > :45:25.-- wondering what the future will look like? Construction has already
:45:25. > :45:31.rebalancing of troops in Asia. 60% of the forces could be based here.
:45:31. > :45:36.China is building up its Navy too, with aircraft carriers and
:45:36. > :45:39.submarines. There could be two superpowers in the area. Some local
:45:39. > :45:48.families are wary of their new neighbours. There has been solar
:45:48. > :45:52.panels and new jobs, but some say it is not enough to make up to make
:45:52. > :45:57.up for having US soldiers on their doorstep. This man is raising
:45:57. > :46:05.awareness of what the new base could mean. TRANSLATION:
:46:05. > :46:11.rational has changed. It used to be north, now it is fighting wars
:46:11. > :46:19.America wants to fight. This location is ideal for the US. They
:46:19. > :46:23.to face off with China. America says its rebalance something not
:46:23. > :46:29.about China, but safeguarding regional peace, as it has done for
:46:29. > :46:37.decades. But trip wires exist. Like the one guarded by the
:46:37. > :46:43.Lieutenant and his Flying Dragons. Beijing and Washington and -- feel
:46:43. > :46:45.differently about how to defend against North Korea. A sobering
:46:45. > :46:50.thought for the night patrols collecting ammunition. If this Cold
:46:50. > :46:57.War relic ever turns hot again, this handful of conscriptss will be
:46:57. > :47:03.facing a different kind of battle to the one their grandfather's --
:47:03. > :47:11.grand fathers' fought. That's all we have time for now. We will be
:47:12. > :47:21.we have time for now. We will be back tomorrow, goodbye.
:47:21. > :47:26.and start to blow the rain back up from the channel across the whole
:47:26. > :47:31.of the UK, turning wetter in possibly turning more drizzley
:47:31. > :47:41.towards the south. Still heavy bursts of rain for northern England
:47:41. > :47:44.
:47:44. > :47:49.is damp and drizzley. Some dryer rain to come across the south west
:47:49. > :47:54.of England. An amber rain warning in Devon, and also across South
:47:54. > :47:59.Wales. Over the hills 50mms, two inches of rain in 24 hours on
:47:59. > :48:04.The rain clearing away from Northern Ireland in the afternoon,
:48:04. > :48:06.it may get late sunshine out things go down hill. Early sunshine
:48:06. > :48:10.but wet and windy through the afternoon. Some of the rain will be
:48:10. > :48:14.heavy, particularly over the hills. Look how mild it is and how it
:48:14. > :48:18.changes on Wednesday. Brighter, yes, but sunshine and some showers, and