:00:14. > :00:19.What is to be done about Syria? Or maybe there's nothing to be done.
:00:19. > :00:25.This was the President of the World's most powerful country today.
:00:25. > :00:30.By game changer I mean that we would have to re-think the range of
:00:30. > :00:35.options that are available to us. And this was the scene in Damascus.
:00:35. > :00:39.How has the Middle East got to this?
:00:39. > :00:42.I will look at what the options for intervention are, and how the old
:00:42. > :00:46.borders of the Middle East are straining under the pressures
:00:46. > :00:50.caused by this conflict. I will be joined by a former vice
:00:50. > :00:54.Chief of Staff in the US army, a recent member of the Free Syrian
:00:54. > :01:00.Army, and a man who ran part of Iraq.
:01:00. > :01:03.Also, why does sport make gay players feel obliged to hide their
:01:03. > :01:09.sexuality. And what happens when the newest
:01:09. > :01:15.menace to three-party politics hits the Derbyshire dales. Don't let
:01:15. > :01:20.people say we are racist. You need to be counter acting that, we are
:01:20. > :01:30.not racist at all. Just because we want to control the immigration on
:01:30. > :01:31.
:01:31. > :01:35.the borders and whatever. Obviously there are options on the shelf that
:01:35. > :01:39.we have not deployed was the way the American President put it today.
:01:39. > :01:43.It doesn't really count as a threat, but it is another sign that the
:01:43. > :01:47.United States is wrestling with how and when, as well as whether to
:01:47. > :01:51.step into the Civil War in Syria. He has, of course, already said
:01:51. > :01:55.that the use of chemical weapons would cross a red line and chemical
:01:55. > :01:59.weapons probably have been used. But what realistically could the
:01:59. > :02:03.United States, perhaps with her allies, do? Our diplomatic editor
:02:03. > :02:06.is here. Do you think the US is close Tory intervention tonight
:02:06. > :02:12.than previously? I think the President in that news conference
:02:12. > :02:16.sought in a way to step back from the red line in language certainly
:02:16. > :02:20.he kauked about carefully deliberating and examining the
:02:20. > :02:23.evidence, who fired the shell? And the train of evidence. As you said
:02:23. > :02:26.he also talked about military options having been worked up. If
:02:26. > :02:32.there is a clearly defined use of chemical weapons, they could be
:02:32. > :02:34.deployed, but he just couched it in different language. The use of
:02:34. > :02:38.chemical weapons would be a game changer. Not simply for the United
:02:38. > :02:42.States, but for the international community. The reason for that is
:02:42. > :02:47.that we have established international law and international
:02:47. > :02:53.norms that say when you use these kinds of weapons you have the
:02:53. > :02:57.potential of killing massive numbers of people in the most
:02:57. > :03:02.inhumane way possible. The proliferation risks are so
:03:02. > :03:06.significant that we don't want that genie out of the bottle. Is it
:03:06. > :03:12.really viable to get hold of the chemical weapons? They are in
:03:12. > :03:15.dozens of sites and people say the only real way to do it is go in on
:03:15. > :03:17.the ground. A lot of people in the military dismiss the air strike
:03:17. > :03:20.option. It is very difficult publicly for President Obama to
:03:20. > :03:24.talk about that kind of thing at the moment. 2% of Americans in a
:03:24. > :03:31.recent poll said they don't want America to get involved. But if
:03:31. > :03:35.there was a mass loss of life, the calculation would change. Then
:03:35. > :03:41.Special Forces types would go in and actually physically try to get
:03:41. > :03:45.hands on those weapons. Clearly it can't be done without going in
:03:45. > :03:52.there. Without someone getting their hands on it. That's clearly
:03:52. > :03:58.going to involve military operation, whoever does them. Tough, I would
:03:58. > :04:03.say, the intelligence clearly needs to be accurate. On top of that, the
:04:03. > :04:10.military occupations to secure them are going to be contentious, and
:04:10. > :04:13.they will be militarily difficult. Doable, but difficult. By difficult
:04:13. > :04:17.he means the possibility of clashes with all kinds people, opposition
:04:17. > :04:21.groups, Syrian army, other groups who might be in there. Very, very
:04:21. > :04:26.tough. It is an option almost no- one wants to use. Some suggest in
:04:26. > :04:30.the region, even if it was used it would be the likes of Jordan and
:04:30. > :04:34.Turkey who would actually have to do it. Where does that leave us?
:04:34. > :04:37.There are few options clearly remaining, but there are some, some
:04:37. > :04:41.of them have been walked around the park. We know about the possibility
:04:41. > :04:44.of sending more advanced weapons to the resistance, that kind of thing.
:04:44. > :04:54.Exclusion zones have been put forward by the French. They all
:04:54. > :04:57.have their complication though, according to Tony Cordesman.
:04:57. > :05:01.think at the moment weapons transfers and sophisticated weapons
:05:01. > :05:05.are still an option. To have any guarantee of security it means
:05:05. > :05:10.putting Special Forces or covert operatives on the ground with
:05:10. > :05:15.Syrian forces. Knowing all of the problems that could occur. If you
:05:15. > :05:21.want a decisive option you need enough air power to convince the
:05:21. > :05:25.Al-Assad regime that it cannot resist in terms of its air force
:05:25. > :05:30.and surface-to-air missiles. If it does resist to actually take out
:05:30. > :05:34.those defences which are far more serious than they were in Libya.
:05:34. > :05:37.What are the risks of the US getting caught up in some wider
:05:37. > :05:41.regional conflict then. We know Syria is a cockpit for all the
:05:41. > :05:46.regional powers now, feeding in weapons and advice and people too.
:05:46. > :05:49.For a long time are you mores about Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant
:05:49. > :05:55.Shia movement getting involved there. There are claims they might
:05:55. > :06:01.have up to 8,000 troops involved. Tonight the leader of Hezbollah
:06:01. > :06:06.made an address on his party's TV station, in which he did say some
:06:06. > :06:10.very forthright things. He upped the ante, he said Syria's
:06:10. > :06:15.Government should not be allowed to fall to the opposition groups and
:06:15. > :06:23.he implied that not only Hezbollah forces but maybe even Iranian
:06:23. > :06:27.forces might get involved to prevent that happening. Before we
:06:27. > :06:32.hear from other guests let's speak with General Keane, former Chief of
:06:32. > :06:39.Staff in the United States army, he joins us from Washington. What do
:06:39. > :06:43.you think is the most viable American option now? As you already
:06:43. > :06:47.pointed out there are a number of challenges here with options. I
:06:47. > :06:53.don't think it is realistic, given the limited use of chemical weapons
:06:53. > :06:59.that the United States would take the risk of trying to seize these
:06:59. > :07:03.stockpiles or chemical sites, so it would probably only be a realistic
:07:03. > :07:06.option in terms of human casualties on their hand. In front of us, and
:07:06. > :07:12.what the President will look for is something that is very limited.
:07:12. > :07:16.Certainly I believe from the outset and it is still a viable option is
:07:16. > :07:22.to arm the moderate weapons who have been vetted by the Central
:07:22. > :07:26.Intelligence Agency. Yes there is risk because the radicals have
:07:26. > :07:30.grown in influence and in power. But nonetheless, that is still a
:07:30. > :07:35.viable option and the idea of not doing it, I think, is a far greater
:07:35. > :07:41.risk. We could assist in the training of some of the moderate
:07:41. > :07:45.rebel forces on the ground in Syria. We are doing this in Jordan, as we
:07:45. > :07:49.speak on a limited basis with the CIA and some military forces. We
:07:49. > :07:55.could increase that capability, probably using the CIA mostly to
:07:55. > :08:00.assist them. Then I think in response to the red line there is a
:08:00. > :08:10.limited option that the President could select if he so chooses. That
:08:10. > :08:12.
:08:12. > :08:16.is to strike some of Assad's airfields with civils and stealth
:08:16. > :08:20.bombers -- cruise mifpls and stealth bombers, it would not be an
:08:20. > :08:25.effort to systematically wipe out their air power T would be a
:08:25. > :08:30.limited military option in response to the limited chemical attack. I'm
:08:30. > :08:40.assuming the warning would be, if you continue with the use of
:08:40. > :08:42.
:08:42. > :08:47.chemicals then these attacks would be increased as well. Wouldn't
:08:47. > :08:51.there be a serious danger of starting a war with Iran or
:08:51. > :08:56.someone? The Iranians are in Syria, there is about 1,000 of them in
:08:56. > :08:59.terms of trainers and advisers. Hezbollah is already there. It is a
:08:59. > :09:03.complicated situation. I don't believe that's going to start a war
:09:03. > :09:07.with the Iranians, but make no mistake about it, I think when the
:09:07. > :09:12.United States and its allies look at the conflict in Syria, we must
:09:12. > :09:16.consider the regional implications and we certainly have to consider
:09:16. > :09:25.how important Syria is and Assad is to Iran in terms of their desire
:09:25. > :09:28.for regional hegemony. And this coalition that they are putting
:09:28. > :09:34.with themselves, Syria and Lebanon is something that is very important
:09:34. > :09:40.to them geopolitically. Why is it any business of ours? I think,
:09:40. > :09:46.first of all, the region matters. We want stability in that region.
:09:46. > :09:51.The Syrian people as part of the Arab Spring have stood up and want
:09:51. > :09:54.to change their Government because of the political, economic and
:09:54. > :09:57.social injustice and repression that is taking place there. I think
:09:57. > :10:00.right from the beginning we could have done much to help them. Never
:10:00. > :10:06.having considered putting boots on the ground. I'm not suggesting that.
:10:06. > :10:11.But I think if we had provided a kind of aid that they needed, which
:10:11. > :10:14.is to deal with Assad's air power and with his armour formations in
:10:14. > :10:18.terms of the kinds of weapons they needed, this stalemate we are in
:10:18. > :10:22.right now would not be the case. I think the rebels would have had the
:10:22. > :10:26.momentum they certainly need. I do believe it is in the interests of
:10:26. > :10:29.the region that Assad goes. It is going to take more than rhetoric to
:10:29. > :10:33.do that. He will have to be forced to do that and we will realise
:10:33. > :10:39.there is a stalemate there, primarily because of his air power.
:10:39. > :10:45.Thank you very much indeed General. With me now is Rory Stewart, a
:10:45. > :10:55.former diplomat and deputy governor in Iraq, just after the country was
:10:55. > :11:00.invaded, he's a Conservative MP. Paulo Dybala is a Iranian film
:11:00. > :11:03.maker. And a former member of the Free Syrian Army. What would the
:11:03. > :11:05.consequence of the action talked about by the general? My instinct
:11:05. > :11:12.is the general is looking for something to do but it is not clear
:11:12. > :11:17.what it would achieve. It is not clear whether it would hasten the
:11:17. > :11:24.fall of the Assad regime. Do these people want weapons? What kind of
:11:24. > :11:28.weapons and what difference would it make? Let's find out do you want
:11:28. > :11:33.weapons? We are ready to ask for weapons. I go with the opinion of
:11:33. > :11:43.General Keane now, which he described properly the situation.
:11:43. > :11:50.Yes the FSA need weapons, they need arms. I wouldn't go for the option
:11:50. > :11:56.that NATO come to Siria. But I would recommend that there would be
:11:56. > :12:02.a steering committee on high levels between the NATO maybe and the FSA
:12:02. > :12:06.commanders on high levels. So the co-ordination should be on the
:12:06. > :12:12.level of commander. But the weapons have to be in the hands of the
:12:12. > :12:16.rebels themselves. I would like to explain more about this because any
:12:16. > :12:20.foreign intervention...Can I ask you a question that will occur to
:12:20. > :12:25.everyone you are asking to support you, why is it any business of
:12:25. > :12:35.ours? I'm sorry? Why is it our business, it is your business isn't
:12:35. > :12:35.
:12:35. > :12:40.it? Yes, but the lack of weapons in Syria is stopping the rebels from
:12:40. > :12:45.ing the Syrian forces. Do we really need to achieve democracy in Syria,
:12:45. > :12:49.we Syrians, by getting harms from the west and fighting each other,
:12:49. > :12:53.fighting other Syrian fellows on the ground of Syria, and bringing
:12:53. > :12:58.western invasion to Syria to get democracy and freedom? Is this what
:12:58. > :13:01.really we want? This is not what the Arab and the Syrian revolution
:13:01. > :13:05.started. The revolution started as peaceful demonstrations asking for
:13:05. > :13:10.reform. And then we asked for Assad to leave, and now you are asking
:13:10. > :13:14.arms, to arm rebels and to move Syria into a playground of fights
:13:14. > :13:18.between Shia and Sunni, between the Free Syrian Army and the regime and
:13:18. > :13:23.the Jihadis, and you are not thinking of the long-term results.
:13:23. > :13:29.We can destroy Syria, is this what we want to achieve? Is this the
:13:29. > :13:35.Syria we aim to have? Let her answer that. You accept the dangers
:13:35. > :13:41.don't you? Sorry. You accept the risks of what you are asking to
:13:41. > :13:47.happen? I need the time to explain if you may allow me. We did not
:13:47. > :13:52.choose to use the weapons. The Assad forces and supporters were
:13:52. > :13:57.the ones who chose this, you can say sectarian war. They made it
:13:57. > :14:03.like this, they showed it like this. The rebels were carrying papers and
:14:03. > :14:07.voicing only using their voices, but Assad was killing them for
:14:07. > :14:13.seven or eight months they were forced to do that. I'm sorry, I
:14:13. > :14:19.have to continue. Yus briefly -- just briefly, now come on? Now we
:14:19. > :14:25.have two options, either arming the real moderate democratic people who
:14:25. > :14:30.are calling for real freedom, which are the moderate people, not
:14:30. > :14:35.anybody else. So far unfortunately their revolution has been
:14:35. > :14:39.controlled by other then moderate Muslim people. The other option is
:14:39. > :14:45.that political option where we have the moderate people in power, give
:14:45. > :14:51.them funds, give them power for them to be united together, to work
:14:51. > :14:56.together. Now they are controlled by extra -- emtreemist Muslims who
:14:56. > :15:00.don't care for having real -- extremist Muslims who don't have
:15:00. > :15:04.any real care for democracy. What would be the consequences, you
:15:04. > :15:07.supported intervention in places like Kosovo, Bosnia and Libya?
:15:07. > :15:11.Absolutely. I think the consequences here of arming are
:15:11. > :15:16.going to be not very helpful. There are already an enormous number of
:15:16. > :15:20.weapons, there is a lot of weapons coming in from Qatar and Saudi
:15:20. > :15:24.Arabia. We pursue military options because they seem easier. But the
:15:24. > :15:27.solution has to be political. We know what it looks like. We have to
:15:27. > :15:31.get rid of Bashar al-Assad, and make sure the more moderate
:15:31. > :15:35.elements come in and there is some kind of settlement and sort out the
:15:35. > :15:41.region. All of this stuff is much easier said than done. It is
:15:41. > :15:46.diplomacy and politics. Shipping out weapons is unlikely, I think.
:15:46. > :15:49.We are way beyond the point where political negotiation can achieve
:15:49. > :15:53.anything? The Syrian people are not part of the political solution.
:15:53. > :15:58.There are all countries, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States,
:15:58. > :16:05.Turkey, all countries, there are millions of countries fight in
:16:05. > :16:09.Syria, sibia, Egypt, where -- Libya, Egypt, where are the Syrian people
:16:09. > :16:12.who started the revolution. There is a sectarian Civil War going on
:16:12. > :16:18.in your country? This sectarian Civil War has been started because
:16:18. > :16:23.of the extremists, the Jihadists, Salafi extremists on the ground we
:16:23. > :16:27.live in Syria, Shia, Sunnis, Alawites, hand in hand, we never
:16:27. > :16:32.had sectarian division. It started with this war, with this Jihadis on
:16:32. > :16:36.the ground in Syria. I think this is something that I imagine both
:16:36. > :16:41.Syrian contents would agree with, this is driven predominantly by
:16:41. > :16:44.neighbours and outsiders. It is not that Syria is some cockpit of
:16:44. > :16:48.ancient hatreds of sectarian groups. It is driven by the actions of
:16:48. > :16:52.neighbouring countries. And indeed the function of people like Russia
:16:52. > :16:56.and China and our own inability to deal with it. There has to be a
:16:56. > :17:01.regional and political solution. Blaming the Syrian people and Shia
:17:01. > :17:05.and Sunni conflict is not the way forward. Thwaiba Kanafani what do
:17:05. > :17:09.you imagine is going to be the mechanism by which this conflict is
:17:09. > :17:14.resolved, is there any alternative to a military solution? Yes.
:17:14. > :17:20.Political solution where you need to really, again I will repeat, in
:17:20. > :17:25.power the moderate Muslims. We did not take a chance to present
:17:26. > :17:30.ourselves in Syria. A moment ago you were asking for weapons to be
:17:30. > :17:37.supplied, when you talk about empowering moderates, what on earth
:17:37. > :17:42.do you mean? In all aspects, you can empower them to have
:17:42. > :17:45.positioning in legitimacy, give them some support.Y actually why do
:17:45. > :17:49.we need, although that is Arab Spring started from the heart of
:17:49. > :17:54.the Arab people n Egypt, and Libya and Syria, why do we need the west
:17:54. > :17:57.in order to empower us to influence us in order to change our countries.
:17:57. > :18:00.Why don't we have our own initiatives, why don't we sit
:18:00. > :18:04.together, in spite of our differences as Syrians in order to
:18:04. > :18:08.change the situation? Because President Assad has an air force,
:18:08. > :18:14.artillery and a great deal more guns. The rebels have forces and
:18:14. > :18:21.arms from Qatar and from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. No. They have nothing
:18:21. > :18:25.like as many, and you know that perfectly well. There are suicide
:18:25. > :18:29.bombs in Damascus and Syria, happened by the rebels, we know
:18:29. > :18:36.there are weapons in the hand in the weapons, we know Al-Qaeda is
:18:36. > :18:41.using weapons inside Syria. Very few weapons. I want to explore the
:18:41. > :18:51.broader context, the collapse of a beautiful country and the collapse
:18:51. > :18:54.into tyranny and Civil War are post-world war II Ice Age. Before
:18:54. > :19:01.this there were other great powers t would help to understand now if
:19:01. > :19:05.we understand then. We have the Syrian conflict affecting the whole
:19:05. > :19:10.map of the Middle East. Syria's strive is sending ripples
:19:10. > :19:17.across the region, a major refugee crisis has seen big flows of the
:19:17. > :19:23.displaced, 448,000 to Jordan, a similar number of people heading to
:19:23. > :19:28.Lebanon. 316,000 Syrians have gone to Turkey, and 137,000 to Iraq.
:19:28. > :19:30.These figures are just the registered refugees. Some suggest
:19:30. > :19:35.the real figure taking in those staying with relatives and friends
:19:35. > :19:40.is double that, and there are more than a million thought to be
:19:40. > :19:47.displaced within Syria itself. How many of them will ever go home? The
:19:47. > :19:51.Balkan wars of the 1990s suggest many may not. Syria's multiethnic
:19:51. > :19:58.society may already have been doomed. I think very difficult. And
:19:58. > :20:02.we may have already passed that point. To what extent if we had
:20:02. > :20:07.collectively pleaded differently. I know this is taking an outsider's
:20:07. > :20:14.view in terms of finding a solution which might have retained power for
:20:14. > :20:19.the Alawites but under a different leader. If that had been possible
:20:19. > :20:23.then perhaps the delicate balances could have been maintained.
:20:23. > :20:28.modern settlement of the Middle East owes much to the Ottoman
:20:28. > :20:36.Empire, they presided over different religions, providing an
:20:36. > :20:41.overarching power and serving as a convenient process for blame. Some
:20:41. > :20:46.of the ottoman boundaries confirm closely to the states that then
:20:46. > :20:51.emerged. Their prove minces of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra formed the
:20:51. > :20:54.basis of modern Iraq. In Syria something similar happened too.
:20:55. > :21:00.When the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the drawing of boundaries led
:21:00. > :21:05.Britain and France to draw up their mandate territories according to
:21:05. > :21:10.the Sykes Picot agreement, they reached that in secret in 1916.
:21:10. > :21:14.Iraq, Jordan and Palestine were created under British influence,
:21:14. > :21:19.Lebanon and Syria under the French. That also cleared the way, after
:21:19. > :21:24.the First World War for Egyptian independent and Saudi Arabia too
:21:24. > :21:29.emerged at that time. The post ottoman dispensation survived well
:21:29. > :21:32.in most of the Middle East for decades. But ultimately
:21:32. > :21:42.nationalistic secular regimes, despite their repression of
:21:42. > :21:47.religious groups failed. variations here Are the size of the
:21:47. > :21:51.Sunni, Shia communities are so different, the economies are so
:21:51. > :21:56.different. What they all do have in common, unfortunately, is the
:21:56. > :22:01.failure of secular movements and secular ideaologies. There is no
:22:01. > :22:11.clear reason that anyone would trust a secular or semi-secular
:22:11. > :22:12.
:22:12. > :22:16.Government in all of the worst cases. Iran is the powerhouse of
:22:16. > :22:22.Shi'ite theology, but Arab Shia form important communities from
:22:22. > :22:24.southern Iraq to Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.
:22:24. > :22:30.Historically they had difficult relationships with ruling elites.
:22:30. > :22:34.In Iraq though they have become the rulers following the American
:22:34. > :22:39.invasion. There it is now the Sunni minority that considers itself
:22:39. > :22:44.oppressed and the protests around the city of Ramadi are, some fear,
:22:44. > :22:48.now growing into a new insurgency against the Baghdad Government. In
:22:48. > :22:54.Syria it is the Sunni who are poised to take power after decades
:22:54. > :23:00.in which a religious minority, the Alawites, have wielded it. Here, as
:23:00. > :23:05.in Iraq, the reversal of the old order is a bloody process, with
:23:05. > :23:09.regional implications only now becoming clear. Still with us is
:23:09. > :23:14.the former diplomat and Conservative MP Rory Stewart, and
:23:14. > :23:19.the Syrian film maker, Halla Diyab, also joining me is a Syrian
:23:19. > :23:23.academic, who co-founded the group Building the Syrian State. What do
:23:23. > :23:28.you think realistically are the chances of Syria remain intact
:23:28. > :23:32.after all this? It is declining all the day. The positions are getting
:23:32. > :23:37.increase league polarised with the international element and inside
:23:37. > :23:40.Syria. The conflict that started political is devolving into an
:23:40. > :23:45.armed confrontation and Civil War. Out of Civil War you usually get
:23:45. > :23:48.divisions. The quicker we head for a political pollution the less
:23:48. > :23:54.chance that Syria will be divided. There have been Civil Wars in that
:23:54. > :23:59.part of the world, and one thinks of Lebanon it is substantially
:23:59. > :24:03.still intact as a single entity. What do you think, will it stay in
:24:03. > :24:07.one piece? Lebanon solved it through an enormous amount of
:24:07. > :24:11.decentralisation. Secondly, although the borders are artificial
:24:11. > :24:17.as was pointed out, they were invented after the Second World War,
:24:17. > :24:20.a lot of time has passed since then, people feel a sense of nationalism,
:24:20. > :24:22.with the exception of the Kurds people are not pushing for a
:24:22. > :24:27.separate country, they are still fighting for control of Syria
:24:27. > :24:31.itself. Will the country remain intact? I think that Syria has the
:24:31. > :24:37.potential to be a model for a future Arab democracy. Because if
:24:37. > :24:40.you look to Syria in comparison to Saudi Arabia or Libya or Egypt, the
:24:40. > :24:45.Syrian people are very civic moderate Muslims, and moderate
:24:45. > :24:49.people in general who lived actually in different sects like
:24:49. > :24:54.Alawite, Shia and Sunnis, in harmony before the crisis. One does
:24:54. > :24:59.wonder why they are killing each other? This kind of sectarian war
:24:59. > :25:05.has been used by political agenda, by the forces which are fighting on
:25:05. > :25:11.the ground in order to divide people. So ...All That happened is
:25:11. > :25:15.it bubbled up once the secular state under a dictator fell apart?
:25:15. > :25:19.It is not only that, it also happens in Iraq, for example, which
:25:19. > :25:25.is the majority are Shia and it is controlled by a minority which is
:25:25. > :25:30.Sunni, and in Syria we have the majority Sunni controlled by a
:25:30. > :25:36.minority which is Alawite. important thing is there are
:25:36. > :25:40.important fault lines. It takes neighbours in conflict to exploit
:25:40. > :25:50.them. In other words they are there, but Lebanon was peaceful for 800
:25:50. > :25:53.years before people stirred things up. The fact that people are
:25:53. > :25:57.different sects doesn't matter until people stir up the cauldron.
:25:57. > :26:02.That is why we need a new social contract in Siria. We have a rich
:26:02. > :26:07.society, with faut lines very deep in history, with issues that
:26:07. > :26:11.haven't been resolved properly, and some feel others are a threat to
:26:11. > :26:14.their existence, and rights. We never had a chance to establish
:26:14. > :26:20.through dialogue a proper relationship with the other
:26:20. > :26:23.components because we went from colonisation straight into
:26:24. > :26:29.dictatorship. We are living under a strong regime, this is why we live
:26:29. > :26:33.together in peace. The power of the regime is diminishing and there is
:26:33. > :26:38.a political conflict exploited by regional and international actors
:26:38. > :26:42.turning this into a proxy war. So we have an armed confrontation that
:26:42. > :26:47.will certainly exacerbate these fault lines. How many people have
:26:47. > :26:50.fled the country as refugees? Millions. It is about 3.5 million
:26:50. > :26:53.the estimate. There is a very good chance many of those will never go
:26:53. > :26:57.home? I think they will go home. They will never feel home but in
:26:57. > :27:01.the country where they came from. I want to go back to Lebanon, we have
:27:01. > :27:05.to learn from the way the war stopped in Lebanon. Because I think
:27:05. > :27:10.it is still a Civil War in waiting. Because they stopped the war but
:27:10. > :27:14.they did not resolve the problem. They froze it. So the same warlords,
:27:15. > :27:19.the same division and the same system. We missed a very important
:27:19. > :27:23.point, it is the Islamic movement risinging post September 11th and
:27:23. > :27:29.after that the war on terror, after the appearance of all these Islamic
:27:29. > :27:33.leaders like Nasrella or Amir in Lebanon, they become the
:27:33. > :27:36.alternative to political and social leaders the communities. People in
:27:36. > :27:41.the Middle East in Syria and Egypt and Libya are now driven by their
:27:41. > :27:45.identities as Muslims. And that really creates this sectarian war
:27:46. > :27:51.in Syria between you as Alawite and you as Shia. People are fighting
:27:51. > :27:56.not within their Syrian identity any more, they see themselves as
:27:56. > :28:01.Alawite, as Shia, as Salafi and this is all the result of the
:28:01. > :28:08.rising of the Islamic movement. wouldn't be surprised if you looked
:28:08. > :28:12.at the arbitary drawings on maps by sites by many people to find ethnic
:28:12. > :28:16.identities were stronger than national identities. You were
:28:16. > :28:20.saying you thought the national identities were very well
:28:20. > :28:25.established? Over 90 years a lot becomes established, but the Kurds
:28:26. > :28:29.are still looking for separation, but most people don't want to break
:28:29. > :28:33.national borders. Although one thing we need to be careful with is
:28:33. > :28:38.not to fall into the same trap ourselves as seeing everything in
:28:38. > :28:43.terms of Sunni and Shia conflict and seeing Syria as part of Iran.
:28:43. > :28:50.What do we define by nationalism. I spent my high school in Syria that
:28:50. > :28:55.we were fed and learned that the ethics in Syria to be a citizen is
:28:55. > :28:59.to worship one leader and one nation. There is no citizenship
:28:59. > :29:02.within the state as we have in England. You have no right to
:29:02. > :29:07.criticise the state or elect your President, you have no right to
:29:07. > :29:11.build and to be part of the state. That is what creates a gap between
:29:11. > :29:14.Syrian people and their national identity. They find an alternative
:29:14. > :29:17.identity which is the Islamic identity with the sectarian
:29:17. > :29:23.identity which leads now, now it is an explosion in Syria.
:29:23. > :29:27.Do you think that sectarianism is superseding the idea of Arab
:29:27. > :29:30.nationalism? No. The Islamic identity, I mean, I'm so sorry?
:29:30. > :29:35.don't have a problem with the Islamic identity or any other
:29:35. > :29:40.identity if it doesn't try to impose itself through violent means
:29:40. > :29:46.and by dictating the rights of the others. I think any ideology should
:29:46. > :29:51.have the right to be in the society in a peaceful way. The biggest
:29:51. > :29:55.problem is it became a violent way of imposinging its ideology. The
:29:55. > :29:58.regime with all that is happening now, we are discussing the Shia,
:29:58. > :30:02.Alawite and Sunni issue, the heart of the conflict is a political one.
:30:02. > :30:08.This regime is a dictatorship. That is the problem with the regime, it
:30:08. > :30:13.is not because Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite, he is a dictator.
:30:13. > :30:17.a secular dictator? He is an Alawite with full power. We want a
:30:17. > :30:21.new institution where the President doesn't -- constitution where the
:30:21. > :30:25.President doesn't have full power. The people are facing one of the
:30:26. > :30:29.cruellest regimes ever existing. Regional actors are exploiting this,
:30:30. > :30:33.war ends with a military victory or political decision. Military
:30:33. > :30:37.victory is not imminent or a solution. We want international and
:30:37. > :30:41.local and regional actors to head very quickly to a political
:30:41. > :30:44.solution before this turns into a Civil War that burns the entire
:30:44. > :30:47.region. We do have three big advantages here that we don't have
:30:47. > :30:51.in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, by we I mean Britain and the United
:30:51. > :30:55.States, we are not on the ground, first low, that is really important.
:30:55. > :30:58.Secondly we have countries like Russia that we should be focusing
:30:58. > :31:02.on, and we know what the solution looks like. The solution looks like
:31:02. > :31:07.getting rid of Bashar al-Assad, but keeping some of the elements of the
:31:07. > :31:11.old Government and combining it with the moderate of the opposition.
:31:11. > :31:15.I disagree. My problem is not Bashar al-Assad, if he stands down
:31:15. > :31:18.and hands it to the another person the problem isn't solved. The new
:31:18. > :31:24.one will have full power. The position of the President is the
:31:24. > :31:28.problem, with the constitution, the powers, any new person is a
:31:29. > :31:31.dictator, he can do what he wants. The President has full security,
:31:31. > :31:35.monetary everything power. That is the heart of the problem. We should
:31:35. > :31:39.see it from a political point of view, not Bashar al-Assad's point
:31:39. > :31:44.of view, an Alawite point of view. Absolutely, equally we don't want
:31:44. > :31:48.to exclude anyone. The great advantage unlike Afghanistan and
:31:48. > :31:51.Iraq is the British Government isn't committed in the same way. We
:31:51. > :31:54.can allow compromise between former elements of the Government and the
:31:54. > :31:59.opposition and bring the two together. Time is short? We have to
:31:59. > :32:02.get players, not former members of the regime, the actors with blood
:32:02. > :32:06.or water on their hands they have to come to the table and roach
:32:06. > :32:10.agreement. The power is not in the actors' hands but the regime and
:32:10. > :32:13.the rebels. So the people who should sit and debate are both
:32:13. > :32:17.sides of the conflict. Thank you very much indeed.
:32:17. > :32:21.The first major player in one of the big American sports to come out
:32:21. > :32:25.as a gay man has been rather overwhelmed by the support he has
:32:25. > :32:29.had since doing so. He picked up the phone to find for example that
:32:29. > :32:33.President Obama was calling to wish him well. In a strange way it tells
:32:33. > :32:36.us more about the state of sport than anything else, that someone
:32:36. > :32:44.doing what so many others have done without getting calls from the
:32:44. > :32:48.President should get this sort of reception.
:32:48. > :32:51.If you were a footballer and had 30,000 people looking for any
:32:51. > :32:56.excuse to berate you from the terraces, would you come out as
:32:56. > :32:59.gay? That is the question that sportsmen and women who happened to
:32:59. > :33:05.be attracted to the same-sex have had to wrestle with. It wasn't
:33:05. > :33:10.always like this. In ancient Greece sporting performance and machismo
:33:10. > :33:15.were accompanied with perfectly acceptable homoerotic undertones,
:33:15. > :33:19.athletes even competed in the nude. Today there are only a handful of
:33:19. > :33:23.top British sports players openly gay. Gareth Thomas, the former
:33:23. > :33:28.Welsh rugby player is perhaps the best known of them to come out
:33:28. > :33:35.while playing. There are no league footballers among them. The last
:33:35. > :33:40.well known footballer to come out in the UK was Justin Fashenu, who
:33:40. > :33:44.took his own life after bog public. With attitudes on the terraces far
:33:44. > :33:51.from reconstructed, it doesn't look like that will change any time soon.
:33:51. > :33:57.With us now is Justin Fashinu's knees, who presented the
:33:57. > :34:01.documentary Britain's Gay Footballers, and John Amaechi, the
:34:01. > :34:06.former NBA basketball star who came out after he retired. In the case
:34:06. > :34:12.of your own uncle, who took his own life, what conclusion do you come
:34:12. > :34:18.to from that experience? Well, I just think that it was a tough time
:34:18. > :34:22.when he was playing football. That maybe you know fans and the FA and
:34:22. > :34:27.other sporting people weren't as supportive as someone would be now.
:34:28. > :34:33.I think Justin went through a lot, not just homophobia, he also went
:34:33. > :34:39.through racism, I think at the time he did not have a good time at all.
:34:39. > :34:43.John Amaechi, this reticence about declaring your sexuality, how
:34:43. > :34:48.widespread is it? It is incredibly widespread, we know this because
:34:48. > :34:51.the list of "out" athletes or former athletes is 27 people in
:34:51. > :34:55.American sport. When you think of the number of people participating
:34:55. > :34:59.over the last X number of decades it is a remarkably tiny percentage.
:34:59. > :35:02.It is worth pointing out that when people talk about this, especially
:35:02. > :35:08.with American sports, there is a different backdrop there. Here we
:35:08. > :35:11.are on the cusp of marriage equity. Where as in America there are still
:35:11. > :35:14.29 states you can be fired for being gay. There are 50 states
:35:14. > :35:18.where you have no guarantee of being able to rent a house, for
:35:18. > :35:21.example, if the person who is renting it out doesn't want to rent
:35:21. > :35:26.to gay people. There is a very different backdrop in America at
:35:26. > :35:30.the moment, which makes what Jason has done even more brave, I think.
:35:30. > :35:34.You council counsels him, or encouraged him at the very least,
:35:34. > :35:39.isn't the experience of the reaction to this, that actually it
:35:39. > :35:44.is really no big deal in the world at large, but there is something
:35:44. > :35:49.specific about the sporting world? Yes, sport is particularly culpable.
:35:49. > :35:51.The reality is that Jason Collins now sits on the crest of a wave of
:35:51. > :35:56.public opinion that is most certainly moving in the direction
:35:56. > :36:01.of equity and fairness and getting on with playing ball. But
:36:01. > :36:05.unfortunately those people who run the sport are essentially still
:36:05. > :36:09.dinosaurs. They are Neanderthals. What do you think about this, there
:36:09. > :36:13.is something different about sport. It is no big deal if a businessman,
:36:13. > :36:17.a politician, someone at the BBC or wherever comes out, it is no big
:36:17. > :36:21.deal at all. No-one thinks anything of it. But some how in sport it is
:36:21. > :36:27.different? Well yeah, I could add that specially in football, I feel
:36:27. > :36:32.that it is particularly hard. I mean rugby, speaking to Gareth
:36:32. > :36:35.Thomas, it seems to be more warming, the effect of him coming out seems
:36:35. > :36:39.not to be that big. If someone in football came out I do think it
:36:39. > :36:45.would have a different impact. is the problem in football? To be
:36:45. > :36:47.honest I think it is the machoism, we are more interested in the
:36:47. > :36:51.footballer's life, who the footballer goes out with, how he
:36:51. > :36:54.wears his hair. It has become not the sport any more, it is more out
:36:54. > :36:58.of the sportk and we are concerned with his private life. Who cares
:36:58. > :37:03.about the private life, at the end of the day he plays a sport. Why
:37:03. > :37:07.would we care? John Amaechi what do you think it tells us about soccer?
:37:07. > :37:11.It tells us it is behind the times, behind the curve, and certainly
:37:11. > :37:14.behind the trends of history. The people who are running football
:37:14. > :37:20.right now, they are the most, football in Britain is one of the
:37:20. > :37:27.most powerful sporting entities, and right now they are like, I
:37:27. > :37:30.don't know, the Saatchi & Saatchi of sport, they are good at
:37:30. > :37:34.producing posters about equality but they are very bad at changing
:37:34. > :37:38.the culture of sport. That is not just homophobia but racism and
:37:38. > :37:43.sexism too. There has been tremendous progress in this country
:37:43. > :37:45.on the question of racism on the terraces and racism on the pitch
:37:45. > :37:49.hasn't there? There is something specific about sexuality in
:37:49. > :37:56.football? We can say there has been some progress, but the idea that
:37:56. > :38:00.right now we are in a situation where there are people, captains of
:38:00. > :38:04.English teams who have been going through all these supposed
:38:04. > :38:07.programmes to make sure that everybody understands fairness and
:38:07. > :38:12.equality, who are themselves accused of being racist, doesn't
:38:12. > :38:18.really speak to them getting a handle on this. There is anti-
:38:18. > :38:24.semitism, there is racism still, there is sexism still. That is he
:38:24. > :38:27.have dent. The idea that homophobia is rife still is just a foregone
:38:27. > :38:32.conclusion in that environment. People will say there is a class
:38:32. > :38:37.element to this? To be honest with you I don't really think it is
:38:37. > :38:41.about class. What is it then, what is specific to football? Honestly I
:38:41. > :38:47.have been trying to understand it myself. I really do not understand
:38:47. > :38:50.it. We all know it is great, it is a macho hard sport. My dad was in
:38:50. > :38:54.the Crazy Gang. It is hard sport. But then who cares about their
:38:54. > :39:00.private life. This is my question, why does it come back to their
:39:00. > :39:05.private life. This is my question. It is not their private lives. It
:39:05. > :39:09.is not the private life. You can't operate on this system where if you
:39:09. > :39:13.are straight and you hold hands with somebody it is no big deal or
:39:13. > :39:18.just a snapshot, but if you are gay and you hold hands with someone it
:39:18. > :39:21.is some radical activism or something worthy of bringing the
:39:21. > :39:25.house down. It still matters. As much as reasonable people believe
:39:25. > :39:30.it shouldn't, it still matters. As such the people in power in sport
:39:30. > :39:34.are the ones that have to take action.
:39:34. > :39:38.There are barely 30 hours to go before the lucky folk of England
:39:38. > :39:43.and Anglesey have the chance to do their democratic duety. Those who
:39:43. > :39:47.survived the tension get to choose councils or unitary authorities, or
:39:47. > :39:52.in a couple of places their mayors on Thursday. In past form there
:39:52. > :39:55.will be many of us who fail to exercise the right for which our
:39:55. > :40:05.ancestors died. But you give our political editor the choice between
:40:05. > :40:08.
:40:08. > :40:13.any election and a box of chocolate truffles, she heads for Derbyshire.
:40:13. > :40:17.For me, as farmer, I'm found to the farm and the work, I have had
:40:17. > :40:24.nobody visiting and asking my opinion, or flyers through the
:40:24. > :40:29.letterbox. I'm very unaffair of what is going on. On Thursday local
:40:29. > :40:38.democracy comes to the fields and Dales of England and Wales. These
:40:39. > :40:43.are the county council elections, the Tory shires. The last time barn
:40:43. > :40:48.doors were knocked, 26 of them returned a Conservative majority.
:40:48. > :40:54.OutLuiz Eduardoly it is hard to see the paraphernalia of elections, but
:40:54. > :41:04.a serious -- out Luiz Eduardoly it is hard to see the paraphernalia
:41:04. > :41:08.
:41:08. > :41:12.was elections but a serious fight is on. On the ground the Tories are
:41:12. > :41:15.talking about local issues, but in the East Midlands, there was
:41:15. > :41:18.pronounced swing to the Conservatives in the 2010 general
:41:18. > :41:22.election. Had it been repeated across the country, the Tories
:41:22. > :41:27.would have won a majority. Three years into Government that
:41:27. > :41:33.relationship is being tested. finding on the doorsteps that
:41:33. > :41:37.people are accepting the situation that the country is in and are
:41:37. > :41:44.accepting of the measures that the Government is currently taking.
:41:44. > :41:49.That's the coalition Government there is an understanding that the
:41:49. > :41:53.cuts are necessary. The Liberal Democrats are expected to do better
:41:53. > :41:57.than their current vote share, perhaps winning about 15% of the
:41:57. > :42:01.vote on Thursday. There may be some wins against Tories in the south
:42:01. > :42:05.west. But there may also be some heavy losses to Labour. When people
:42:05. > :42:08.see that they have �600 in their back pocket and we have lowered the
:42:08. > :42:11.threshold of income tax, those sorts of things played very well
:42:11. > :42:21.with families who have got money to stretch basically. They see the
:42:21. > :42:23.
:42:23. > :42:27.difference that is going to make. This parliamentary constituency of
:42:27. > :42:33.Chesterfield used to be Lib Dem until a surprise defeat in the last
:42:33. > :42:39.general election turned it Labour. Holding the parliamentary eat,
:42:39. > :42:45.Labour now has high hopes for the - - seat, Labour now has high hopes
:42:45. > :42:48.for the County Council. The last time the councils were up for grab,
:42:48. > :42:51.it was 2009, Gordon Brown's leadership was in cry I s and
:42:51. > :42:55.across the country Labour suffered serious defeats N a place like
:42:55. > :42:58.Derbyshire, where Labour had held the council for 28 years, the
:42:58. > :43:05.Tories capitalised on Gordon Brown's unpopularity and the
:43:05. > :43:09.council went Tory for the first time. Now, four years on with a new
:43:09. > :43:17.Labour leader, Ed Miliband, Labour must reclaim Derbyshire if it is to
:43:17. > :43:20.show it has healed the wounds of the Brown-era. Tom Watson has
:43:20. > :43:26.certainly put rubber to the road, but Labour is, unsurprisingly,
:43:26. > :43:29.playing down the chances of big wins. Politicians always engage in
:43:29. > :43:34.expectation management, all I can say is having got 13% of the
:43:34. > :43:37.national vote in 2009 we will make progress. If we can win a couple of
:43:37. > :43:43.hundred seats then that would be great. If we could win 250 that
:43:43. > :43:46.would be excellent for us. Who knows in these elections.
:43:46. > :43:51.Independent experts say Labour should win between 300 and 350
:43:51. > :43:56.seats on Thursday. Seats in the south like Dartford and Harlow. If
:43:56. > :44:00.they can't do this the suspicion will harden that Ed Miliband's One
:44:00. > :44:04.Nation Labour Party is actually no such thing. Newsnight also
:44:04. > :44:10.understands that it is far from certain Labour will regain some of
:44:10. > :44:15.the big northern County Councils. Don't let people say that we are
:44:15. > :44:19.racist. You need to be counter acting that. We are not racist at
:44:19. > :44:23.all. Just because we want to control the immigration on the
:44:23. > :44:28.borders and whatever. UKIP are fielding candidates in 73% of
:44:28. > :44:32.council seats this time round. That's compared to the 25% that
:44:32. > :44:35.they fielded in 2009. Who says we shouldn't take a County Council of
:44:35. > :44:39.a big place like this. Maybe not this year, I wouldn't disagree with
:44:39. > :44:46.you. But we will get candidates in and they will start to make a
:44:46. > :44:53.Conservative four years ago. The idea you can make inroads on that
:44:53. > :44:56.is mad, isn't it? No, not at all. People are supporting us in ever
:44:56. > :44:59.greater numbers. But UKIP haven't persuaded Robert. I am considering
:44:59. > :45:04.at the moment voting Conservative. Not just because it is the existing
:45:04. > :45:07.council, but I do know them. They have relatives who are farming I
:45:07. > :45:12.know they are sympathetic to the rural and farming vote, which is
:45:12. > :45:18.very important to me. Obviously as a full-time farmer my biggest
:45:18. > :45:21.issues are ago cull ly -- agriculturally related. These
:45:21. > :45:26.elections in mostly rural England won't indicate very much about the
:45:26. > :45:31.next general election, but they may dictate the run-up to it. Whichever
:45:31. > :45:36.party has a bad Thursday will probably also have a bad summer as
:45:36. > :45:43.unhappy MPs demand that their party sharpens up.
:45:43. > :45:48.But there is one racing certainty, UKIP will do OK, a jolly place to
:45:48. > :45:52.be this Friday will probably be Nigel Farage's local.
:45:52. > :45:56.There is a link to the full list of all the glorious candidates
:45:56. > :46:01.standing in Derbyshire on the Newsnight website. Tomorrow
:46:01. > :46:04.morning's front pages now, the Telegraph leads with the news that
:46:04. > :46:14.some gold people will be fitted with GPS tags so the police don't
:46:14. > :46:14.
:46:14. > :46:56.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 41 seconds
:46:56. > :47:01.spend too much time looking for That's enough excitement for one
:47:01. > :47:11.day. There is a tide in the affairs of men and women which taken at the
:47:11. > :47:35.
:47:35. > :47:38.Good evening, over the next couple of days southern areas holding on
:47:38. > :47:41.to the best of the dry and bright weather. Further north always a bit
:47:41. > :47:44.more cloud with some rain. We have got this weak weather front moving
:47:44. > :47:50.south on Wednesday. Thickening the cloud across northern eing and
:47:50. > :47:54.Wales for the afternoon. A bit -- England and Wales for the afternoon.
:47:54. > :48:00.Still the potential for some showers in the north and west.
:48:00. > :48:04.Mainland Scotland with the sunshine for the central lowlands lifting
:48:04. > :48:08.temperatures to 11 degrees. Overcast for northern England with
:48:08. > :48:14.the odd spot of rain. East Anglia and the south-east corner, like the
:48:14. > :48:18.last couple of days, after a chilly start temperatures recovering to
:48:18. > :48:21.15-16. The sunshine along the south coast, it could be hazy for south-
:48:21. > :48:25.west England later in the day. More cloud in Wales. With the greatest
:48:25. > :48:29.risk of seeing rain across North Wales. More cloud in Cardiff, I
:48:29. > :48:33.think the day should stay dry with temperatures of 14. By the time we
:48:33. > :48:37.get to Thursday in the north we are keeping more cloud, perhaps some
:48:37. > :48:43.rain arriving again in Inverness later on in the day. Further south,
:48:43. > :48:46.always some sunshine at times, we have top temperatures 14-15 degrees.