:00:15. > :00:19.What goes up must come down. They claim. Except in the case of house
:00:19. > :00:23.prices, in an economy virtually on life support why does the
:00:23. > :00:28.Government think it is so important the housing market keeps on rising?
:00:28. > :00:32.So is the Chancellor's help to buy scheme moronic, as one expert put
:00:32. > :00:36.it today, we do a bit of economics 101.
:00:36. > :00:42.We will discuss what is so special about this market that makes it
:00:42. > :00:48.worth manipulating. This Afghan man risked his life for
:00:48. > :00:55.Britain as an interpreter, now he's in Germany as an illegal immigrant.
:00:55. > :01:00.I'm not free. I have no freedom and I have no life. Our political
:01:00. > :01:08.editor has news on what Ed Miliband will say Labour's going to do about
:01:08. > :01:10.the welfare system. And we're in Turkey again, not with the liberals
:01:10. > :01:14.protesting against the Prime Minister, tonight we hear from the
:01:14. > :01:24.people who put him in power and want him to stay there for as long
:01:24. > :01:27.
:01:27. > :01:31.as humanely possible. Sitting comfortably, feeling your
:01:31. > :01:36.house increasing in value while you watch television. Six middle-aged
:01:36. > :01:40.people in ten in the south-east has assets worth more than half a
:01:40. > :01:44.million pounds, the biggest chunk is their house. It is not the same
:01:44. > :01:46.across the country and there are areas across the country. In some
:01:47. > :01:51.places house prices have more or less nothing to do with what people
:01:51. > :01:54.get in exchange for their labour. Yet Britain's politicians seem to
:01:54. > :01:59.have decided that owning property is a good thing in itself, they
:01:59. > :02:03.want to make it easier. The latest initiative stpor the taxpayer to
:02:03. > :02:06.help people with their -- is for the taxpayer to help people with
:02:07. > :02:12.their mortgages. What that really means is the taxpayer is
:02:12. > :02:16.contributing to a housing bubble. Every day someone else piles in to
:02:16. > :02:20.criticise George Osborne's help to buy scheme. Today it's Albert
:02:20. > :02:26.Edwards, the head of global strategy at Societe Generale, who
:02:26. > :02:30.calls it a "moronic policy", he joins a growing number of others
:02:30. > :02:34.including the Governor of the Bank of England, the IMF and the Office
:02:34. > :02:37.for Budget Responsibility who have all, in more polite terms,
:02:37. > :02:40.questioned the wisdom of the scheme. When the Government starts to lend
:02:41. > :02:45.people money who can't get money on commercial terms, this really is
:02:45. > :02:48.very dangerous. It is pumping money into a housing market where prices
:02:48. > :02:53.are already very high relative to earnings. Firstly, and secondly it
:02:53. > :02:57.is actually exposing the taxpayer to tremendous risks as well. What
:02:57. > :03:01.is the problem? To answer that we have to look at what's happened to
:03:01. > :03:05.the relationship between housing demand and housing supply. It is
:03:05. > :03:12.worth rembering that when economists talk about demand they
:03:12. > :03:15.are not just talking about want. We all "want" a five-bedroom house in
:03:15. > :03:19.the centre of London with a pool in the basement. The question is do we
:03:19. > :03:23.have the money to pay for it, if we can't afford it can we get someone
:03:24. > :03:28.to lend us the money. That is where the banks came in. These days they
:03:28. > :03:32.are a little less enthusiastic. At the moment banks are requiring
:03:32. > :03:36.borrowers to put more of their own money into a house purchase,
:03:36. > :03:40.typically a 20% deposit, that is the bank's insurance policy. The
:03:40. > :03:43.price of the house would have to fall 20% before the bank loses any
:03:43. > :03:47.money. Many buyers, even though they are happy to take on the debt
:03:47. > :03:51.can't come up with such a large deposit. Now obviously there are
:03:51. > :03:54.two things that could happen at this point to help achieve a sale.
:03:54. > :03:59.The first is, and obviously what the buyer would prefer is that the
:03:59. > :04:09.seller drops their price a bit. Now the seller would rather the buyer
:04:09. > :04:09.
:04:09. > :04:14.magically found some extra cash from some other source. Well with
:04:14. > :04:21.help Help to Buy that is the taxpayer who helps lend the money
:04:21. > :04:27.to fill the gap. Under the scheme the buyer would stump up 5% and the
:04:27. > :04:31.bank stumping up 90%, and in this way the taxpayer will guarantee 20%
:04:31. > :04:36.of the loan. The Help will help thoughs denied the chance to buy
:04:36. > :04:40.their first home to buy their first home. In a market where first time
:04:40. > :04:45.buyers have been denied that chance for five years, it is important to
:04:45. > :04:48.give them a boost to allow them achieve their ambitions to become
:04:48. > :04:52.homeowners. But the scheme isn't so much aimed at helping buyers first
:04:52. > :04:57.time or otherwise as helping the housing market. One minister is
:04:57. > :05:02.quoted as saying the intention is to create a building boom, and he
:05:02. > :05:05."couldn't care less who owns the bloody things". As it stands the
:05:05. > :05:09.Government hasn't ruled out the scheme to those buying second homes.
:05:09. > :05:16.Nor in the Commons today did the Prime Minister rule out helping
:05:16. > :05:19.foreign buyers. Will British tax- payers' money be used to fund the
:05:19. > :05:25.mortgages of foreign citizens who buy property here. The Chancellor
:05:25. > :05:29.will set out details in this in the announcements he plans to make.
:05:29. > :05:33.critics say that those struggling to get on the housing ladder would
:05:33. > :05:37.be better served by the Government letting prices fall, not
:05:37. > :05:41.intervening to help them borrow more money. It is very difficult
:05:41. > :05:46.for a Conservative Government both to allow house prices to fall
:05:46. > :05:49.naturally, but also to liberalise planning, given the sorts of areas
:05:49. > :05:54.that the coalition Government MPs represent. But actually if we are
:05:54. > :05:58.going to resolve the housing crisis in the UK what we need to do is
:05:58. > :06:02.liberalise supply. Critics say the result of this Government activity
:06:02. > :06:06.is to maintain house prices at a higher rate than the market would
:06:06. > :06:11.otherwise set. That obviously suits the people who build houses. The
:06:11. > :06:16.Government wants them to build more. But, could we be inflating another
:06:16. > :06:20.bubble? The figures show that house prices are still at historically
:06:20. > :06:24.high levels in terms of income. And, the latest numbers for housing
:06:24. > :06:30.starts and mortgage lending are both up too, but still at
:06:30. > :06:33.historically low levels. I am not worried at all about an inflation
:06:33. > :06:37.bubble. At the moment the market is about half what it should be in
:06:37. > :06:40.transactions and prices are being stagnating. This is not adding fuel
:06:41. > :06:44.to a fire, this is really giving a smoldering fire a little poke to
:06:44. > :06:48.keep it going. We already have a bubble in house prices which has
:06:48. > :06:52.never really properly deflated. This bubble is caused by
:06:52. > :06:57.restrictions on supply, it is the restrictions on supply that need to
:06:58. > :07:01.be tackled, not simply pumping more air into the balloon. This kind of
:07:01. > :07:05.housing market intervention of course doesn't have an entirely
:07:05. > :07:08.glorious his he troo. It was the US Government helping people buy
:07:08. > :07:12.houses who wouldn't otherwise afford them that was one of the
:07:12. > :07:15.causes of the sub-prime crash. One of the problems is Governments find
:07:15. > :07:23.it very easy to get into the mortgage business, far harder to
:07:23. > :07:25.get out. Jake Berry is a Conservative MP who spent time as
:07:25. > :07:32.parliamentary secretary to the Housing Minister and is now part of
:07:32. > :07:34.the Prime Minister's policy unit. Stuart Baisley is the executive
:07:34. > :07:39.chairman of the home builders association, representing most of
:07:39. > :07:42.those building new houses in this country. Nicola Horlick is a
:07:42. > :07:46.business woman who runs her own investment fund. What is it about
:07:46. > :07:49.the housing market that makes it legitimate to rig that market but
:07:49. > :07:52.not others? We are not talking about rigging the market. We are
:07:52. > :07:56.saying that we as a Government are absolutely determined to back hard
:07:56. > :08:00.working families who want to buy their first home, or move that up
:08:00. > :08:04.that property ladder. It is not about rigging a market. It is
:08:04. > :08:09.ensuring they get an affordable mortgage. You are interfering in
:08:09. > :08:12.the market. You are interfering in the market. I think it is frankly
:08:12. > :08:16.all very well for people sat around the table who already own their own
:08:16. > :08:19.home. Are you saying people should save up for 15 years. I'm not
:08:19. > :08:24.saying anything, I'm trying to get to the facts, you are intervening
:08:24. > :08:28.in this market in a way you think it is illegitimate to interfere. If
:08:28. > :08:32.you tried to fix, for example, something that is going on in
:08:32. > :08:36.banking that is illegitimate, is it not. This market you think it is OK
:08:36. > :08:39.to start rigging? In banking the Government has the Funding for
:08:39. > :08:42.Lending Scheme, which is about increasing lending to businesses,
:08:42. > :08:45.in housing we are doing something very similar. It is enabling people
:08:45. > :08:52.with a small deposit to get an affordable mortgage. Actually we
:08:52. > :08:55.are not talking about going back to ridik125% mortgage as in the last
:08:55. > :08:58.market. It is the principle of fixing the market, do you think
:08:58. > :09:01.this is an intervention in the market? I do, I think the result
:09:01. > :09:06.will be that house prices will rise and I think houses are too
:09:06. > :09:11.expensive in this country and too big a proportion of people's income
:09:11. > :09:16.is taken up by housing. It is reflected in the rental sector as
:09:16. > :09:20.well. If you have capital prices rising then wreoints go up. -- Then
:09:20. > :09:23.rents go up. You have to have a degree of sympathy, people can't
:09:24. > :09:27.afford to get into the market, this is a good thing isn't it? I don't
:09:27. > :09:31.think it is a good thing if house prices go up. It means for the next
:09:31. > :09:36.generation too much of their income will be taken up in housing costs.
:09:36. > :09:39.The overall cost of this is huge, it is �3.5 billion. Whilst I agree
:09:39. > :09:42.it is good to inject money into the economy, I would much rather than
:09:42. > :09:45.money was spent on building hospitals and schools rather than
:09:45. > :09:48.more houses. We are actually talking about the next generation
:09:48. > :09:51.because it is about helping first time buyers to take the first step
:09:51. > :09:56.on the ladder. Not everyone has the ability to go and take money from
:09:56. > :10:00.the bank of mum and dad to come up with that big deposit. If people
:10:00. > :10:03.are financially stable and can afford the mortgage and save a 5%
:10:03. > :10:07.deposit they should be able to buy their own home. The problem with
:10:07. > :10:11.these types of schemes is someone will come along and reverse the
:10:11. > :10:16.policy and the prop is taken away and those people may find a
:10:16. > :10:21.negative equity when prices go down again. Can I clarify a point of
:10:21. > :10:24.fact, this is only for first time buyers is it? No, but it does
:10:24. > :10:28.enable first time buyers to enter the market. We don't know if it is
:10:28. > :10:34.only for British people, do we? Labour Party has made great play of
:10:34. > :10:39.saying this will enable foreign nationals to buy property, it with
:10:39. > :10:42.huge loo complicated EU rules around this, the -- hugely
:10:42. > :10:45.complicated EU rules on this and the Government is working to make
:10:45. > :10:49.sure they don't get the benefit of the guarantee. You have introduced
:10:49. > :10:54.a policy and you are not sure whether under the policy a Romanian
:10:55. > :10:59.plumber will be able to move to this country with his family and
:10:59. > :11:03.get tax-payers' money? This policy isn't about Romanian plumbers, it
:11:03. > :11:06.is not hoards of people waiting to make money out of the property
:11:06. > :11:09.market. This is about people buying their own people, people in areas
:11:09. > :11:13.like I represent in Lancashire, want to go buy their own home, not
:11:13. > :11:16.as a money-making exercise but a safe place to bring their family
:11:16. > :11:21.out. You don't know what will happen with those people, you have
:11:21. > :11:24.just said so? The Labour Party removed the nationality
:11:24. > :11:27.qualification from all Government housing policy, we are looking at
:11:27. > :11:31.closing the loopholes. You love this, because it is the taxpayer
:11:31. > :11:35.giving you money? We like the scheme. We have been talking to the
:11:35. > :11:38.Government for schemes like this. Of course you do, it is money for
:11:38. > :11:41.free? We have to put it in the context that we are in a major
:11:41. > :11:44.housing crisis and it has been building for the best part of 20
:11:44. > :11:48.years. It is not just a function of the economic recession. What has
:11:48. > :11:54.happened in the economic recession over the last five years one of the
:11:54. > :11:57.casualties has been the people who normally would have borrowed beyond
:11:57. > :12:00.to 85-95% of their first purchase or purchase of the home have been
:12:00. > :12:03.unable to access the mortgage market in a way that historically
:12:03. > :12:07.has been the case. The scheme that the Government have introduced,
:12:07. > :12:11.first of all you have to separate it into two sections. At the moment
:12:11. > :12:15.we have an equity loan part of the scheme, that came in on the 1st
:12:15. > :12:19.April, it got off to a good start. It is building on schemes that have
:12:19. > :12:21.been around for a while, which have been jointly funded by the house
:12:21. > :12:25.building industry and now the Government alone. The second wider
:12:25. > :12:29.part of the scheme which comes in next January is the mortgage
:12:29. > :12:32.guarantee piece. If you go back in time, when we bought our first home
:12:32. > :12:36.mortgage insurance guarantee policies were absolutely the norm.
:12:36. > :12:42.It was impossible to get a mortgage beyond 80% without such a thing.
:12:42. > :12:47.Paid for by the taxpayer? No paid for by the private sector. Does
:12:48. > :12:51.this work if the market does what you clearly want it to do which is
:12:51. > :12:55.to not keep roaring away making houses more expensive? One of the
:12:55. > :12:58.reasons we have had problems with the housing market is the lack of
:12:58. > :13:01.supply which is partly to do with our planning laws, one of the
:13:01. > :13:04.things the Government could have chosen to do rather than doing what
:13:04. > :13:07.they are doing, which I think will fuel house prices further would
:13:07. > :13:12.have been to relax those planning laws and make more land available.
:13:12. > :13:16.They have done some? A little bit and they have backtracked on some
:13:16. > :13:18.of the things they were going to do. They were going to say people could
:13:18. > :13:22.build extensions without planning permission, that isn't going to
:13:22. > :13:26.happen. That doesn't relate to new homes, we have seen an 20% increase
:13:26. > :13:28.in the number of planning permissions given. Developers don't
:13:28. > :13:32.apply for planning permission and don't build houses unless people
:13:32. > :13:37.can get the cash to buy them. At the moment we have a situation
:13:37. > :13:40.where people have to come up with �20-�30,000 as a deposit. That is
:13:40. > :13:43.clearly unsustainable. We have to find a way to enable people who
:13:44. > :13:48.can't afford to get a reasonable mortgage. Why is it necessary for
:13:48. > :13:53.people to own their own homes. The point was made in America it all
:13:53. > :13:56.went horribly wrong and there were towns like Detroit, which were
:13:56. > :14:00.completely decimated as a result. Give a straight answer to the first
:14:00. > :14:03.question there, why is it so important that people own their own
:14:03. > :14:07.homes? I don't think it is important whether people own their
:14:07. > :14:10.own homes or not. It should be up to people if they want to do so,
:14:10. > :14:13.they should be free to do so, the Government should support them. I
:14:13. > :14:17.own my own home, I want to be part of that British dream that says I
:14:17. > :14:21.can own my own house and pay the mortgage off, I can pass it on to
:14:21. > :14:24.my children. Lots of other people do too, if you want that the
:14:24. > :14:29.Government will support you. As far as you are concerned in the
:14:29. > :14:34.industry, you mentioned that there used to be a differently funded
:14:34. > :14:37.arrangements, not by the taxpayer. As far as you are concerned now,
:14:37. > :14:40.trying to look forward, once we have started on this sort of
:14:40. > :14:43.interference in the market we have to continue with it don't we?
:14:43. > :14:48.have to continue with it at least for the next three years. And after
:14:48. > :14:52.that? It depends whether insurance companies step back into that space
:14:52. > :14:56.and are prepared to underwrite mortgages or whether lenders are
:14:56. > :14:58.prepared to lend higher loan-to- value mortgages as well. That
:14:58. > :15:02.depends on the macro-economic situation and how the economy
:15:02. > :15:07.recovers. This only works if house prices keep on going up? I think
:15:07. > :15:10.the problem is if you stop the scheme and you don't have
:15:10. > :15:14.circumstances where the lenders are suddenly going to be more lenient
:15:14. > :15:17.then you will find that prices will go down when the prop is removed.
:15:17. > :15:21.People will feel conned. They have been lured into buying a house and
:15:21. > :15:25.suddenly the value has gone down, it is a dangerous strategy. Then
:15:25. > :15:27.you are in American sub-prime territory? Sub-prime is very
:15:27. > :15:32.different. We are not talking about irresponsible lending, at least we
:15:32. > :15:34.are not talking about that. We have to put this in the context of
:15:34. > :15:38.getting realistic a little about the state of the housing market in
:15:38. > :15:43.this country. We are only building roughly half the homes we need. We
:15:43. > :15:46.have five million people on social housing waiting lists, 1.8 million
:15:46. > :15:50.families the length and breath of the land. Do you think house prices
:15:50. > :15:53.will always rise? I don't think that at all. Do you think they
:15:54. > :15:56.should? The evidence over the past four or five years not that. I
:15:56. > :15:59.don't think people should buy a house with an intention of making a
:15:59. > :16:03.profit out of the house. As a country we have a duty, in my
:16:03. > :16:06.opinion, to find a way of providing homes for people whatever the
:16:06. > :16:09.tenure of the home will be, for rent or purchase, and people should
:16:09. > :16:12.buy the home as a long-term strategy of somewhere to live, not
:16:12. > :16:16.something to make a short-term profit out of. Are we going into a
:16:16. > :16:19.bubble here? Potentially. Part low at the hands of the Government?
:16:19. > :16:24.Potentionally we could be. I think that potential could be tempered of
:16:24. > :16:29.course by the real reforms we have seen of the planning system, which
:16:29. > :16:32.will increase supply. Also that we have seen Government land come
:16:32. > :16:36.forward, public land, which is available for building on. I think
:16:36. > :16:40.once those reforms really start to come through the system we will see
:16:40. > :16:49.many more development opportunities being started and being built by
:16:49. > :16:53.developer. A good few "thinks" and coulds" in what you have said --
:16:53. > :16:56."coulds" in what you have said there? I think the Government has
:16:56. > :17:01.fixed the supply side, ensuring planning permission for developers
:17:01. > :17:05.and land to build on and ensuring there is planning to build the
:17:05. > :17:10.houses. We need end users to buy the houses. This is also about
:17:10. > :17:14.helping to rebuild the economy. Every home that is built creates
:17:14. > :17:17.jobs, jobs leads to taxes and hopefully helps with the economic
:17:17. > :17:21.recovery. That money could have gone into commercial building. We
:17:21. > :17:25.could have build more schools and hospitals. �3.5 billion is an awful
:17:25. > :17:28.lot of money to be injecting into the housing market at this point.
:17:28. > :17:31.I'm not suggesting we should do this, I sound like a spokesman for
:17:31. > :17:35.the Conservative Party which I'm really not. I think in this context
:17:35. > :17:41.the Government is to be applauded, for once there is joined-up
:17:41. > :17:45.thinking here. Of course you like this, you are being given tax-
:17:45. > :17:48.payers' money. You have to look at it alongside the planning reforms
:17:49. > :17:53.which hopefully will sort out the supply side, adding on the private
:17:53. > :17:57.rented sector initiatives, that is another big area we need to get
:17:57. > :18:00.right. More money for affordable housing and the get Britain
:18:00. > :18:08.building. Do you think we are in a bubble? I don't, or in any danger
:18:08. > :18:11.of going into a bubble in the short-term. We are dealing with a
:18:11. > :18:15.very moriand housing market. We are returning to business as usual,
:18:15. > :18:25.with reasonable loans at reasonable rates. We have had five years where
:18:25. > :18:26.
:18:26. > :18:31.we saw prices drop 20% in some regions, while it helps with some
:18:31. > :18:34.prices we can't afford to keep going like that. British combat
:18:34. > :18:39.forces will leave Afghanistan next year. The Prime Minister has told
:18:39. > :18:42.us that Britain will honour the debt it owes to the Afghans who
:18:42. > :18:46.risked their lives by working as translators for us there, by
:18:46. > :18:50.allowing them to come to Britain too. There is a catch the welcome
:18:50. > :18:54.and benefits now apply to those only to those working since 2012,
:18:54. > :19:03.others have to fend for themselves. The story you are about to hear is
:19:03. > :19:08.the tale of a man who had the misfortune not to meet David
:19:08. > :19:11.Cameron's deadline and his work has brought death to his family.
:19:11. > :19:19.In the seven years since British troops entered Helmand, the
:19:19. > :19:23.fighting has been unrelenting. The risks high. Ambush, attack,
:19:23. > :19:27.sniper fire, and the roadside bombs that have killed and injured so
:19:27. > :19:33.many British troops and Afghan civilians. Every step of the way on
:19:33. > :19:37.every patrol the troops go out on is an Afghan interpreter, a Pashtu
:19:37. > :19:41.speaker who takes the same risks on the frontlines and the even greater
:19:41. > :19:48.risk of being labelled a collaborator. In September 2008 I
:19:48. > :19:54.joined British troops in the town of Gamsir, at a dangerous satellite
:19:54. > :20:01.base that had come under repeated attack. One of their translators
:20:01. > :20:05.was called Barri Shams, or Bari to the troops. He was popular, and
:20:05. > :20:09.regularly risked his life and treated a soldier hit by schrapnal.
:20:09. > :20:13.His commanding officer commended him. Today his life is very
:20:13. > :20:22.different. This is the accommodation provided by the
:20:22. > :20:28.German Government. Yeah. The former Major James Driscoll found Barri
:20:28. > :20:36.where he has been for two years, in a German immigration camp. How many
:20:36. > :20:42.people share this kitchen? 100? voice on the video recording is his
:20:42. > :20:49.former Major in Helmand, James Driscoll, he visited Barri where he
:20:49. > :20:54.has lived for more than two years, in a German immigration camp. He
:20:55. > :21:00.lives here with some of his brothers and immigrants from all
:21:00. > :21:05.over the world. He managed to contact the commander to tell him
:21:05. > :21:09.what happened in Helmand and afterwards. James Driscoll went to
:21:09. > :21:17.record that story. My family got warnings from the local, from the
:21:17. > :21:24.Taliban, I can say. They were saying your son is not supposed to
:21:24. > :21:30.work with the infidel. And then they gave warnings straight to my
:21:30. > :21:35.father in the mosque. Then my father was giving a straight answer,
:21:35. > :21:41.he said my son is doing a good job. If he's working with the coalition
:21:41. > :21:47.forces they are coming here to build our country, to build our
:21:47. > :21:54.homeland. I'm proud of my son. And then the next two days, early in
:21:55. > :22:01.the morning my family heard the shots and when they went outside
:22:01. > :22:05.they saw his dead body. Whose body? My father's dead body, they shot my
:22:05. > :22:13.father. My mother was telling me if I was her son I have to get out
:22:13. > :22:17.from here. I have to get out from here. My mother was pushing me to
:22:17. > :22:22.go away, go away. Anywhere you want to go, go away. You are in trouble.
:22:22. > :22:25.They will kill you, they will kill you. He also paid an agent to
:22:25. > :22:30.illegally transport him to Europe. In Greece he was given a fake
:22:30. > :22:34.passport. But when he arrived at Munich airport he was arrested. Now
:22:34. > :22:38.he and his brother are in limbo. His application for asylum in
:22:38. > :22:43.Germany has been rejected, he can't travel to Britain, and it is too
:22:43. > :22:48.dangerous for him to go home. go back to Afghanistan everybody
:22:48. > :22:57.knows in my village. I have no family there, where do I go? Where
:22:57. > :23:02.do I go? If I go there I have no family. Or the second, if they can
:23:02. > :23:07.kill my father they can kill my brother, they can kill me as well.
:23:07. > :23:15.It is a long way from the feeling he had when he was with British
:23:15. > :23:20.troops. We were like a family. They took care of me. I had no weapons
:23:20. > :23:23.during the mission, during the patrols, but always I had good
:23:24. > :23:33.friends that they were telling me we are with you, we are like family.
:23:33. > :23:43.I'm young and I can work and without work I have no life. I want
:23:43. > :23:46.
:23:46. > :23:53.to be like others. I want have freedom. Do you not feel free at
:23:53. > :23:58.the moment? No, I can feel myself not free, I'm not free. I have no
:23:58. > :24:01.freedom and I have no life. We only know about this case because he was
:24:01. > :24:06.lucky enough to find the e-mail address of his former commander.
:24:06. > :24:10.And although he's now left the army, James Driscoll felt responsible for
:24:10. > :24:15.the translator who had taken so many risks to help his men. And
:24:15. > :24:18.even on one occasion had helped save the life of one of his
:24:18. > :24:22.Sergeants. A lot of the interpreters become more than work
:24:22. > :24:27.colleagues they become friends to the British troops they work with.
:24:27. > :24:31.They spend hours moving around on patrol, invariably a close bond is
:24:31. > :24:35.built between the British soldiers and interpreters. To see him in
:24:35. > :24:40.that situation is akin to seeing one of your own soldiers, one of
:24:40. > :24:45.your friends in that situation. And I think not just myself, but anyone
:24:45. > :24:49.who knew him would desperately want to help him. The MoD told us it
:24:49. > :24:52.operates a programme to address intimidation, which applies to all
:24:52. > :24:57.local employees who serve with British forces at any time during
:24:57. > :25:01.the operation for any duration. And can include, in extreme cases, the
:25:01. > :25:06.option of relocation to the UK. But critics say the bulk of help will
:25:06. > :25:12.only go to those Afghans still working for Britain as late as last
:25:12. > :25:20.December. And excludes hundreds of interpreters. Sadly the package is
:25:21. > :25:24.half-baked, it says hundreds of Afghans risking their lives working
:25:24. > :25:31.shoulder-to-shoulder with the British forces, and some of them
:25:31. > :25:36.can't, depending on an arbitary date cut off by Whitehall. Barri
:25:36. > :25:43.Shams lost it all trying to flee and has lost much more besides.
:25:43. > :25:53.you feel angry at the British Army for this situation? It is a
:25:53. > :25:56.
:25:56. > :26:02.question that sometimes yeah. But all I can say, no, I'm not angry
:26:02. > :26:07.from the British Government. I'm stuck in Germany. I'm stuck in
:26:07. > :26:15.Germany, I want to go to the UK. If I was there, if they would not give
:26:15. > :26:20.me a response or this freedom, in that time, yeah, but now I only
:26:20. > :26:28.hope I have that the British Government will take me out from
:26:28. > :26:33.this situation. Well now, forget Plan B, the Labour
:26:33. > :26:36.Party is about to announce it will cap this country's massive social
:26:36. > :26:40.security bill. It is expected Ed Miliband will admit tomorrow that
:26:40. > :26:46.the public's faith in the system has been shaken and he will claim
:26:46. > :26:50.his party can fix it. In so doing he will accept austerity targets
:26:50. > :26:55.while claiming his party has better ideas about what to do with the
:26:55. > :27:02.money there is. The talk of iron discipline earlier this week will
:27:02. > :27:05.be replaced with stuff about having a "laser" focus. We What will he
:27:05. > :27:10.say? The man behind your head, Ed Miliband, there is three of him
:27:10. > :27:15.actually. In the 90s he was the man who before Gordon Brown brought
:27:15. > :27:18.over from the states the idea of tax credits. He's central to what's
:27:18. > :27:23.been a huge part of the ballooning welfare budget over the last few
:27:23. > :27:28.years or decades. He will tomorrow say if Labour came into Government
:27:28. > :27:33.they would cap that every three years you would see, is this rising
:27:33. > :27:37.too much, tax credits, housing benefits, other elements of the
:27:37. > :27:41.welfare budget that have so far been cut by this budget, without a
:27:41. > :27:45.limit placed on them. He would say they would say it is ballooning too
:27:45. > :27:48.much and they are not happy with it. There will be a cap? There will be
:27:49. > :27:51.a cap. What is happening, a lot of politics and a lot of policy, that
:27:51. > :27:55.is why it is rather interesting. The politics is that actually he's
:27:55. > :27:58.not the first to say he would like to do this. The politics is that
:27:58. > :28:01.the coalition has said in their budget that actually they would be
:28:01. > :28:06.bringing forward something rather similar. What they are trying to do
:28:06. > :28:09.and have successfully so far been doing is boxed Labour into a corner
:28:09. > :28:13.where they are not the Labour Party they are the welfare party, David
:28:14. > :28:16.Cameron says it all the time. So they are happy with welfare
:28:16. > :28:19.spending, they have had previous policies the coalition supported
:28:19. > :28:24.brought forward and Labour have happily, they have been very
:28:24. > :28:27.worried about packing them, so Cameron et al have been able to say
:28:27. > :28:31.you are too soft on welfare. Tomorrow the speech is intended and
:28:31. > :28:36.will show that actually they are toughening up on this stuff. It
:28:36. > :28:41.will upset a lot in their own party. So there will be a cap and some
:28:41. > :28:46.other mechanism for spending the welfare? How do you bring this down
:28:46. > :28:50.if you do not want to be the nasty Coalition cutting stuff. The way
:28:50. > :28:54.you do it, according to his speech tomorrow, I promised I wouldn't
:28:54. > :28:58.mention the word "predistribution" I have done it. With housing
:28:58. > :29:02.benefit this is a huge part of why it is going up. What do they do,
:29:02. > :29:05.they will build more houses, ip ceasing supply so rent would go
:29:05. > :29:10.down -- increasing supply so rent would go down. I see your face,
:29:10. > :29:13.with tax credits how do you bring down that bill? The way you bring
:29:13. > :29:17.it down is say to companies we will give awe tax rate if you pay more
:29:17. > :29:21.to people in their salaries in the first place, there by meaning
:29:21. > :29:25.people don't need to have as much of their salary burp bumped up. The
:29:25. > :29:29.question will be tomorrow if you don't manage to bring in these
:29:29. > :29:32.reforms, building more houses, does it turn around very quickly? I
:29:32. > :29:36.think the jury would turn around quickly would it come out within
:29:36. > :29:41.three years. If you don't manage to do that, would you cut to meet your
:29:41. > :29:49.cap or get rid of your cap? We will find out doubtless tomorrow.
:29:49. > :29:56.We have a Treasury Minister in the last Government, we have the head
:29:56. > :30:00.of the think-tank The Centre for Social Justice. How big a deal is
:30:00. > :30:05.this? It is a very big moment. Several things going on at once.
:30:05. > :30:09.First, an enormous amount of policy, when many people have criticised
:30:09. > :30:15.the Labour Party for not want to go do policy at the moment. A very
:30:15. > :30:18.symbolic line in the sand about being physically prudent, not
:30:18. > :30:22.spending what we -- fiscally prudent, not spending what we don't
:30:22. > :30:25.have. And a lot of exciting work around welfare reform, heading off
:30:25. > :30:29.the fact that the Government was going to do something themselves at
:30:29. > :30:33.the Spending Review in a few weeks time. How big a deal is it?
:30:33. > :30:37.Labour it is a really big deal, for the rest of the country and the
:30:37. > :30:41.wider community this has been discussed for quite some time. The
:30:42. > :30:44.concept of the dreaded predistribution is a wonky way of
:30:44. > :30:46.saying prevention is better than cure. That is what most people,
:30:46. > :30:50.including myself have been rabbiting on for a number of years.
:30:50. > :30:53.It is big for Labour, I can see why it is a key moment for them
:30:53. > :30:57.tomorrow. I think they are catching up, the train is leaving the
:30:57. > :31:06.station and they are trying to get on it. Let's look at the cap. If
:31:06. > :31:10.you don't meet the cap what happens? We don't know. But...It
:31:11. > :31:19.not really a cap. It is inflexible a cap? What seems to be happening
:31:19. > :31:22.is there will be some kind of target for what nerds call the AME
:31:23. > :31:28.budget, which includes social security. The key word you have
:31:28. > :31:33.used just now is "target". It is a target, it is not a cap? I'm not
:31:33. > :31:39.the Government. But it is some kind of limit. Anyone who thinks about
:31:39. > :31:42.this realises if it is a cap there comes a point where you have spent
:31:43. > :31:47.the welfare and you can't give people any. That is a gap. A target
:31:47. > :31:51.is, "this is what we would like to do". Don't take my words, if they
:31:51. > :31:55.say cap tomorrow they mean cap. The point I was trying to make is that
:31:56. > :32:00.it is a very large budget. You can do a lot within that and still stay
:32:00. > :32:03.within the cap. There is an enormous scope for policy
:32:03. > :32:05.intervention. The cap of something the Chancellor talked about in his
:32:06. > :32:10.budget recently. Again it is actually probably close to
:32:10. > :32:13.unworkable if you do it in a serious way. Labour tomorrow will
:32:13. > :32:16.be saying we will deliver serious savings. This cap can't be a
:32:16. > :32:20.meaningless figure. They will have to set something ambitious and work
:32:20. > :32:24.within it. That again is a fairly new concept for Labour. The rest of
:32:24. > :32:27.the country thinks we spend too much on welfare. Things like tax
:32:27. > :32:30.credits and housing benefit have been chasing the targets. What is
:32:30. > :32:35.wrong with the system at the moment is we pick up the pieces of poverty
:32:35. > :32:39.and chase the symptoms. If Labour today and tomorrow will say we will
:32:39. > :32:43.deal with the root causes of poverty then great but that is not
:32:43. > :32:47.new. Wonderous that nobody has thought of it before, that you
:32:47. > :32:50.solve the benefit problem by creating more employment,
:32:51. > :32:56.brilliant! Also big problems like housing benefit inflation, it is
:32:56. > :32:59.not new. The howing benefit -- housing benefit one is exciting,
:32:59. > :33:04.from what I understand they are talking about they are planning to
:33:04. > :33:08.enable local authorities to cap rents, in effect, by giving them
:33:08. > :33:12.various powers to work with existing landlords, at the moment
:33:12. > :33:15.what happens particularly in high property price areas is you have
:33:15. > :33:20.substandard housing that is very expensive that the taxpayer pays
:33:20. > :33:24.for people to live in so they are not incentivised to work because
:33:24. > :33:28.they face a huge poverty trap. The people who win are the landlords.
:33:28. > :33:32.Any kind of shift there is, that is an enormous shift in policy. People
:33:32. > :33:34.will see that Labour has some interesting plans for the long-term
:33:34. > :33:38.challenge. That is an important contribution. But they have, I
:33:38. > :33:41.think, rightly or wrongly taken a judgment of opposing most of the
:33:41. > :33:45.welfare reforms that cut the budget now. They want jam today and jam
:33:45. > :33:49.tomorrow without the pain of now, which is having to take place. They
:33:49. > :33:52.sort of think that the Welfare Bill will come down natural he lot.
:33:52. > :33:58.Under the previous Labour Government when growth was flowing
:33:58. > :34:03.through the economy and jobs were being created the welfare budget
:34:03. > :34:10.went up 40%. That is what you want is growth, but Welfare Bills rise?
:34:10. > :34:15.The coalition Government has said they will project the "automatic
:34:15. > :34:20.stablisers" please let me finish, it will be worth it. Do you have
:34:20. > :34:22.to! The unemployment benefit going up when the economy shrinks, it is
:34:22. > :34:27.actually a tiny proportion of the social security budget. So there
:34:27. > :34:34.are other things going on that need to be addressed. It was a genuine
:34:34. > :34:37.inquiry, I mean if the argument is that you reduce the benefit bill by
:34:37. > :34:40.increasing employment which demands growth in the economy, when you had
:34:40. > :34:49.growth in the economy when you were in Government the Welfare Bill went
:34:49. > :34:53.up? Because there is an underlying problem to do with the way the
:34:53. > :34:56.economy functioning, particularly for people not working. That is a
:34:56. > :34:59.structural problem that needs to be addressed by all parties. The
:34:59. > :35:03.Labour Party seems to be saying that they are prepared to get to
:35:03. > :35:07.the human family side of what is going on and take away problems
:35:07. > :35:10.that are stopping people going to work if they are elderly and only
:35:11. > :35:15.want to work part-time, or they have young children and want to
:35:15. > :35:19.access the labour market in a different way or had disincentives
:35:19. > :35:22.to work. So what is exciting about this, I think, is that it is
:35:22. > :35:25.actually starting to talk the language of people, rather than
:35:25. > :35:30.talking simply about cuts or macro- economics. You are not talking the
:35:30. > :35:33.language of people tonight, I will tell you that for free! One point
:35:34. > :35:36.on the living wage which is a key way they will say they will bring
:35:37. > :35:42.low pay up to scratch. The living wage, even the people who designed
:35:42. > :35:46.it say it is an opt-in scheme. Again this is a real punt in terms
:35:46. > :35:50.of business. Can you explain what that means, an opt-in scheme for
:35:51. > :35:57.the living wage? You can't legislation for all companies to
:35:57. > :36:02.use the living wage not the minimum wage. There is a thought that if
:36:02. > :36:08.you introduce it tomorrow jobs will be. I like the idea it is still
:36:08. > :36:11.optional, and they have to get around that. The living wage is the
:36:11. > :36:15.weakest thing of what is being talked about. They are saying the
:36:15. > :36:19.Government would give some kind of grant to a business. It is a tax
:36:19. > :36:22.credit in a different form. Tifg it to the company rather than the
:36:23. > :36:27.individual. It is great if companies with pay the living wage,
:36:27. > :36:29.I'm not sure that is about structural reform. So that's not
:36:29. > :36:32.the most important part of what they are doing. The important part
:36:32. > :36:37.of what they are doing is reforming housing benefit, which rises and
:36:37. > :36:41.rises and rises, and needs some kind of change to the way it works
:36:41. > :36:45.whilst protecting the individual, that means doing something to what
:36:45. > :36:49.landlords are getting. The incentives to work also. Also the
:36:49. > :36:55.contributory system. I understand that Ed Miliband is expected to say
:36:55. > :36:58.that we have always been the party of work, the clue is in the name,
:36:58. > :37:02."Labour". The welfare state created by the Labour Party for a previous
:37:02. > :37:05.generation was about giving people proper social insurance, where if
:37:05. > :37:09.they paid in they would get something out. That implies more
:37:09. > :37:14.should pay in to get something out. Making that contribution principle
:37:14. > :37:17.at the heart of what the welfare state should be. Without jargon I
:37:17. > :37:21.will make a point. If you are saying certain people deserve more
:37:21. > :37:25.than others, which is what contributory welfare is about, you
:37:25. > :37:31.are bringing up the strivers, skivers debate. Secondly on
:37:31. > :37:34.something like contributory welfare, it will either cost more money or
:37:34. > :37:40.people will lose something. If you are giving more to some and less to
:37:40. > :37:44.others. I think it it doesn't answer the point they have been
:37:44. > :37:49.critical themselves. Thank you all very much you can have a private
:37:49. > :37:54.chat about jargon now. We are off to Turkey, for a change not another
:37:54. > :37:58.point about protest from a well educated elite. The Prime Minister
:37:58. > :38:02.who so angered them is democratically elected. He has also
:38:02. > :38:07.led his country through a period of unprecedented growth. What is not
:38:07. > :38:10.to like say his supporters. Proof that you can be both elected and
:38:10. > :38:17.autocratic. Yet to all the protestors' demands that he quit,
:38:17. > :38:27.he can respond that people voted for him in numbers. Who are his
:38:27. > :38:35.
:38:35. > :38:41.supports and what do they see in him. What started as a protest
:38:41. > :38:44.about trees has turned into an all- out rebel. This is effectively an
:38:44. > :38:52.autonomous zone. The symbols of the global protest movement are
:38:52. > :38:55.everywhere. The tents, the vendetta mask, the flag of the Gay
:38:55. > :39:03.Liberation Movement. Today they were mixed with the more
:39:03. > :39:07.traditional symbols of protest. Tens of thousands of workers on
:39:07. > :39:12.strike came to the place where their kids had driven the police
:39:12. > :39:16.away from to join the party. At the cost of two dead and 4,000 injured,
:39:16. > :39:23.the young people of Turkey have turned Taksim Square into a free
:39:23. > :39:27.urban space, like we saw Greece and in Egypt. The difference is what
:39:27. > :39:37.they are up against, once you get beyond the barricades is a
:39:37. > :39:40.different Turkey. The bridge over the Bosphorus is where you leave
:39:40. > :39:46.Europe and enter Asia. All around there is evidence of rapid economic
:39:46. > :39:54.growth. But beyond the big city bubble the political dynamic is
:39:54. > :39:58.very different. I have come to the town of Pasha.
:39:58. > :40:08.Places like this are part of PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political
:40:08. > :40:09.
:40:09. > :40:14.heartland. The offices of the ruling AK Party barely matter, the
:40:14. > :40:18.political agenda is set here. These are the people who have given Mr
:40:18. > :40:28.Redogan three general election victories and who are dead against
:40:28. > :40:28.
:40:28. > :40:31.the protest in Taksim Square. If you speak to the protesters in
:40:31. > :40:35.Istanbul they think the reason very few people in a place like this
:40:35. > :40:42.would support them is essentially because of the propaganda in the
:40:43. > :40:45.newspapers. If you look, though, it is a mixed bag. This newspaper, a
:40:45. > :40:48.conservative right-wing newspaper compares the Taksim Square
:40:49. > :40:53.demonstrators to what they call PKK terrorists. For the other
:40:53. > :40:59.newspapers they are a little bit more conciliatory. "message
:40:59. > :41:05.received" is the headline on both these newspapers. In fact, the real
:41:05. > :41:09.source of support for Redogan and the party in a town like this is
:41:09. > :41:14.not propaganda da but the fact of economic development. -- propaganda
:41:14. > :41:20.but the fact of economic development. TRANSLATION: I'm 72
:41:20. > :41:23.years old and never had it so good, my pockets are full of money. We
:41:23. > :41:30.have become spoilt, everyone doesn't just have one car but two
:41:30. > :41:33.cars. Why? Because they are rich now. TRANSLATION: There is no
:41:33. > :41:38.better Government in the world than this Government. This is the best
:41:38. > :41:42.Government Turkey has ever had. Mr Redogan works all day and all night
:41:42. > :41:45.-- Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan works all day and night, if you look at
:41:45. > :41:55.his eyes they are swollen and he can't see well because he worked so
:41:55. > :41:59.
:41:59. > :42:02.hard. The KA party rose after other parties failed to stem the Islamic
:42:02. > :42:05.tide. Those who lived through that are scornful about what is
:42:05. > :42:10.happening in Taksim Square. TRANSLATION: When we had the
:42:10. > :42:13.headscarf ban in the past we didn't resort to what they are doing now
:42:13. > :42:16.in Istanbul. We didn't break anything. We prayed and we said
:42:16. > :42:22.that the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would solve this
:42:22. > :42:27.problem over time. He has given rights to the all law ys and the
:42:27. > :42:32.Kurds and he will sort -- Alawites and the Kurds and he will sort this
:42:32. > :42:39.problem too. We never alarmed or attacked anyone. Today the
:42:39. > :42:42.protestors went to anchor ra to lay their demands in front -- Ankara to
:42:42. > :42:46.lay their concerns in front of the Deputy Prime Minister, tomorrow Mr
:42:46. > :42:52.Erdogan returns. What happens next depends on the tens of thousands of
:42:52. > :42:59.young people who have suddenly found a political voice.
:42:59. > :43:06.Today I think it is maybe it is early for a revolution. But it is
:43:06. > :43:13.too, too late for Erdogan. Because many journalists, many people here
:43:13. > :43:21.are the people who voted foreredrd before. But they voted for Erdogan
:43:21. > :43:29.but Erdogan works for a minority. If you win here you will not stop?
:43:29. > :43:34.Yeah because it isn't just a park, it isn't just a cultural thing. It
:43:34. > :43:40.is a democracy and freedom demand against the fascism of Erdogan. We
:43:40. > :43:46.know he's a fascist leader and we will overthrow him by these
:43:46. > :43:53.people's vote. The Government is in a bind, with every demonstrator
:43:53. > :43:56.armed with a smartphone, any attempt to crack down on such a
:43:56. > :44:02.diverse movement would be reputational suicide. But the
:44:02. > :44:05.movement has momentum. At some point everybody knows these iconic
:44:05. > :44:10.bus barricades will have to go. Either the police break in or the
:44:10. > :44:14.Government climbs down. With tension rising and violence flaring
:44:14. > :44:17.in other cities, and people beg arrested simply for tweeting. The
:44:17. > :44:21.people who built this barricade are happy for the moment to stand in
:44:21. > :44:25.the shadows behind it. Meanwhile for the west there is a major
:44:26. > :44:29.headache. We just got used to Erdogan's Turkey being a Muslim
:44:29. > :44:39.democracy. But democracies and barricades do not really go
:44:39. > :44:40.
:44:40. > :44:50.together. Quietly, brick by brick, this young urban secular part of
:44:50. > :45:24.
:45:24. > :45:29.Turkey is preparing for the worst. That's all from Newsnight tonight.
:45:29. > :45:34.One of those life imitating art moments in Australia, or life
:45:34. > :45:38.imitating The Thick of It. The opposition spokesman on immigration
:45:38. > :45:44.was getting into his stride at a news conference, or feeding the
:45:44. > :45:49.chucks as they call it there, when he understood not to be the story
:45:49. > :45:59.of the moment. Our Government has looked the other way and not lifted
:45:59. > :46:20.
:46:20. > :46:30.a fringeer. It's all right. That warmed you up! The other
:46:30. > :46:36.
:46:37. > :46:40.issue... Nice to be popular, the weather has turned a corner since
:46:40. > :46:43.June. Plenty of warm sunshine to come for most of us during Thursday.
:46:43. > :46:45.This time the cloud over the Midlands and eastern England
:46:45. > :46:49.clearing away during the afternoon. The odd afternoon shower through
:46:49. > :46:52.Northern Ireland, few and far between, most of Scotland having a
:46:53. > :46:56.very pleasant afternoon. You get a breeze off the North Sea still
:46:56. > :47:01.chilly, 12 degrees in Aberdeen. The odd shower popping up across the
:47:01. > :47:05.borders into the northern Pennines, they will be few and bar between,
:47:05. > :47:10.many places misses them. For many places, temperatures getting into
:47:11. > :47:14.the low 20s, just near the North Sea coast cooler with the breeze
:47:14. > :47:19.off the sea. Somewhere across south-east Wales, perhaps south-
:47:19. > :47:23.west England got up to 23 or 24 degrees. But lots of that strong
:47:23. > :47:27.sunshine on offer. And absolutely glorious afternoon across Wales and
:47:27. > :47:31.most of the Midlands. We are looking at temperatures around 21
:47:31. > :47:35.in Manchester, perhaps even higher. As you can see for most places it
:47:35. > :47:40.doesn't really change through Thursday and into Friday. Bristol
:47:40. > :47:43.could well hit 23, possibly 24. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a