:00:13. > :00:17.Can it really be true? Are we beginning to see what were once
:00:17. > :00:23.famously or infamously called the green shoots coming up in the
:00:23. > :00:31.British economy? So how is the market doing beyond the ages of the
:00:31. > :00:35.south-east bubble? 5 miles from London, is there any
:00:35. > :00:41.sign of a real recovery. We have gathered among others the
:00:41. > :00:45.author of the phrase "green shoots" to lend us some fresh horticultural
:00:46. > :00:53.insights. In Istanbul the riot police attempt to clear Taksim
:00:53. > :00:58.Square. Why do the Turkish authorities finally lose patients.
:00:58. > :01:00.Also tonight, on the streets of Moscow, the punch-ups are about
:01:00. > :01:06.parliament's overwhelming decision to pass anti-gay legislation. What
:01:06. > :01:09.is it with the Russians and homosexuality. This man lost his
:01:09. > :01:15.job as a television presenter after coming out as gay there.
:01:16. > :01:20.Scientists can now make a cat invisible, sort of. We will ask one
:01:20. > :01:30.scientist how long before we can use it on something bigger, like a
:01:30. > :01:32.
:01:32. > :01:36.television producer? How do you feel? Not physically but
:01:36. > :01:39.how do you feel about the state of the country? More figures appeared
:01:39. > :01:43.today including an estimate that the economy grew at 0.6% in the
:01:43. > :01:49.last three months. It is not what you would call spectacular, it is
:01:49. > :01:53.of a piece with other assessments that say after a couple of years of
:01:53. > :01:59.stagnation that the economy is perhaps finely moving. Does it mean
:01:59. > :02:02.George Osborne's therapy is working, or is what growth there despite his
:02:02. > :02:10.ministrations. There is life outside statistics, we send Paul
:02:10. > :02:14.Mason to see how it looks in Rugby. For economyists the truth lies in
:02:14. > :02:19.the detail. You can scan the graphs and charts and watch the markets
:02:19. > :02:27.but the only true way to spot a recovery is to go to the kind of
:02:27. > :02:32.place it would be unmissable. Which for me means a side street in
:02:32. > :02:37.Rugby, Warwickshire. If we ever do get a sustained economic recovery
:02:37. > :02:41.then this street is probably one of the first places we might see it.
:02:41. > :02:44.Because Rugby, the town, is just outside the south-east property
:02:44. > :02:51.market. So house prices here have been stagnant for five years. What
:02:51. > :02:55.we are looking for is an up tick. For all the arguments about double-
:02:55. > :02:58.dips, what the GDP data shows is a recovery faltering after 2010. The
:02:58. > :03:02.latest sign of an upturn is what purchasing managers are reporting
:03:02. > :03:06.across the whole economy. This line shows the balance between those
:03:06. > :03:10.reporting an increase in sales and those a downturn. It is now been
:03:10. > :03:14.positive since the start of the year. Le
:03:14. > :03:18.Of course it has been positive before, so why should we trust it
:03:18. > :03:21.now? I think the recovery we are seeing is barely broad-based. It
:03:22. > :03:25.looks like maybe consumers are spending a bit more. But it looks
:03:25. > :03:28.like some improvement in the industrial sector in manufacturing.
:03:28. > :03:33.Even possibly an improvement in construction. So it seems to be
:03:33. > :03:38.fairly across the board that we are seeing a bit of a pick up now.
:03:38. > :03:42.But to the Government is pouring tax-payers' money and banks'
:03:42. > :03:45.support into a recovery of a different kind. That is in the
:03:45. > :03:48.housing market. Funding For Lending, help to buy. There is billions
:03:48. > :03:52.earmarked to get house prices on the move. So what's happening.
:03:52. > :03:58.These were built prior to the recession in 2007 and they were
:03:58. > :04:02.purchased for �80,000 roughly. We saw in 2009 they went down to
:04:02. > :04:05.�65,000. We have seen recently they have recovered to almost full value
:04:05. > :04:09.for what they were originally purchased for. Definitely the
:04:09. > :04:15.market is improving. What do you think is driving that? Definitely
:04:15. > :04:19.the first time buyers, the mortgages are being freed up. Rates
:04:19. > :04:24.are getting much better and also the Government's help to buy scheme
:04:24. > :04:28.is definitely having a beneficial effect on the market.
:04:28. > :04:31.Rugby also happens to be one of those places where a bit of civil
:04:31. > :04:37.engineering might boost things. This is the place where the M6 runs
:04:37. > :04:40.out and the east-west route becomes, well, a bottleneck. There is an
:04:40. > :04:43.extra �3 billion nationally earmarked for infrastructure
:04:43. > :04:50.spending, and because of that work could start to expand this junction
:04:50. > :04:53.next year. Until then construction industries
:04:53. > :04:57.are having to make do with smaller stuff. Here an office block is
:04:57. > :05:03.under way. If I asked you the straight question are we in a
:05:03. > :05:08.sustained recovery in your sector? No. Really?No. We are, there is
:05:08. > :05:13.work around, it is generally of a much smaller nature. It is highly
:05:13. > :05:16.competitive. There are sub- contractors, main contractors who
:05:16. > :05:20.are going into receivership as a result of the pressures upon them.
:05:20. > :05:24.We are not out of this yet, we are a long way from it. In general we
:05:24. > :05:28.are seeing very tight times. We are seeing it right the way through the
:05:28. > :05:31.supply chain. We are seeing the supply chain not being paid. We are
:05:31. > :05:36.seeing main contractors not being paid. What would a sustained
:05:36. > :05:42.recovery in your sector look like? Increasing workload, I guess. Very
:05:42. > :05:47.simple, more work. This is how the recovery was
:05:47. > :05:57.supposed to happen. At a manufacturing company in Rugby,
:05:57. > :05:59.
:05:59. > :06:01.they have just built this giant box and it will be used to transport
:06:01. > :06:04.rotors across. Talk to manufacturers and it is the same
:06:04. > :06:08.story as construction, small bits of work here and there but a
:06:08. > :06:14.problem getting paid. What would a real recovery look like and this
:06:14. > :06:17.workshop? There would be two or three more people in it. In a real
:06:17. > :06:22.recovery? Yeah, and hopefully more investment in the machines.
:06:22. > :06:26.would be able to tell if there was a real sustained recovery? We would
:06:26. > :06:31.see that. At the moment we should be selling a lot more RSJs to
:06:31. > :06:34.builders, it is flat at the moment. Where do you go for finance, with
:06:34. > :06:37.builders before finance was the problem. How does it feel to you?
:06:37. > :06:42.With finance we have been very lucky, we just work on the
:06:42. > :06:47.overdraft. We work on that. But I must admit we have done some very
:06:47. > :06:52.big jobs just at the moment and customers are taking longer to pay.
:06:52. > :06:55.Which has hit us and we have had to, for the first time in my highsry,
:06:55. > :06:59.we have had to borrow money -- history, we have had to borrow
:06:59. > :07:03.money just to keep going. Even now manufacturing is nowhere near
:07:03. > :07:08.recovered to what it was before the crisis. The whole project of
:07:08. > :07:12.rebalancing by exports and private investment is just hard to find.
:07:12. > :07:15.The hopes all along have been with businesses and, porters driving the
:07:15. > :07:18.recovery. That really still doesn't seem to be happening. It seems to
:07:18. > :07:22.be consumers that are coming to the economy's rescue, perhaps by
:07:22. > :07:25.borrowing a bit more. That is really what we wanted to avoid. We
:07:25. > :07:29.are at the point now where any growth is better than no growth. So
:07:29. > :07:33.if consumers are going to lead the recovery from now, then that is for
:07:33. > :07:36.the best. For many people here any kind of
:07:36. > :07:41.recovery will be welcome. They are using up their reserves of ready
:07:41. > :07:44.cash. You can see how it might pan out,
:07:44. > :07:48.house prices rise, some people get more money in their pockets and the
:07:48. > :07:54.whole consumer scene becomes a little less reliant on pawnbrokers.
:07:54. > :08:00.The problem is the recovery we were supposed to be having was led by
:08:00. > :08:05.investment, manufacturing and exports and this is not it.
:08:05. > :08:13.In fact it is a recovery with low wages, high borrowing and a one-way
:08:13. > :08:19.bet on house prices. Sound familiar? With us now are the
:08:19. > :08:25.journalists and economists, Nando De Colo, former Chancellor of the -
:08:25. > :08:29.- Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, and Gillian Tett.
:08:29. > :08:35.Each of them has selected their recent favourite graph. You are
:08:35. > :08:39.going first Gillian. This is your graph. This chart is very important
:08:39. > :08:43.for how we feel and in terms of what happens next in the economy.
:08:43. > :08:47.It is the source of some dispute between the IMF and the Treasury.
:08:47. > :08:51.If you are feeling optimistic you can say look the level of debt
:08:51. > :08:55.relative to income has fallen sharply since the peak during the
:08:55. > :09:02.credit bubble. Just to explain for the idiots, myself among us. That
:09:02. > :09:05.shows the amount of debt that the average household has acquired, or
:09:05. > :09:10.is carrying? Relative to how much money they are earning each month.
:09:10. > :09:13.If you sat down and totted up all your credit cards, your car loans,
:09:13. > :09:16.your mortgage, that would be the total debt. During the credit
:09:16. > :09:21.bubble it got very high, now it has come down a bit. That should mean
:09:21. > :09:25.that people start to feel less under pressure financially and more
:09:25. > :09:30.willing to actually go out and spend. That is what the British
:09:30. > :09:34.Treasury hopes. This is a good graph? Except, but, there is a big
:09:34. > :09:38.sting in the tail. If you look at the chart it hasn't come down very
:09:38. > :09:42.far. It has come down a lot less distance than in a country like
:09:42. > :09:45.America where it has dropped quite sharply the problem, as people like
:09:45. > :09:49.the IMF say, is unfortunately there is still an awful lot of
:09:49. > :09:53.rebalancing that needs to go on. Not just inside people's household
:09:53. > :09:57.finances but across the economy as a whole. What do you make of this
:09:57. > :10:01.graph? I think what Gillian says is right, a reduction in indebtedness
:10:01. > :10:07.is part of the adjustment that has to be made. We have had problems
:10:07. > :10:10.with Government indebtedness, but we also have a problem of personal
:10:10. > :10:15.indebtedness. Until that happens I don't think consumers will feel
:10:15. > :10:21.confident. So everyone is still borrowing too much? I think people
:10:21. > :10:24.are still, by historic standards, quite heavily indebted, yes.
:10:24. > :10:31.think it is the other way around. I think the Government's policy is
:10:31. > :10:34.actually to make that graph move up again. That's what help to buy is
:10:34. > :10:39.about. That is really what George Osborne did in the budget. He said
:10:39. > :10:45.you can't cure debt with debt, but then the main thing he announced
:10:45. > :10:48.was an eanother mus Government programme to guarantee and
:10:48. > :10:52.subsidise -- another enormous Government programme to guarantee
:10:52. > :10:56.and subsidise more debt. I believe we are beginning to see a recovery,
:10:56. > :10:59.but it is of exactly the opposite kind to what has been described.
:10:59. > :11:01.The very interesting thing is everyone watching this programme
:11:02. > :11:06.tonight should ask themselves how do I feel about the future and
:11:06. > :11:09.about my own finances? Does the idea of taking on more debt make me
:11:09. > :11:13.feel terrified? Is it something I'm dipping my toe into the water, or
:11:13. > :11:18.do I feel confident. That is really at the heart of whether we will
:11:18. > :11:22.have a sustained recovery or not. So if they feel confident that's
:11:23. > :11:26.good? And they take on the debt and then we are back? Back to where we
:11:26. > :11:31.were before. Exactly. That's not very encouraging. Interestingly
:11:31. > :11:34.enough, the reason the line has come down is it is primarily due to
:11:34. > :11:38.increased income rather than households actually reducing their
:11:38. > :11:42.net levels of debt. In America, by contrast, there has been a real
:11:42. > :11:46.reduction in the actual level of debt held by households, that
:11:46. > :11:50.hasn't happened yet in the UK. lot of that has been through
:11:50. > :11:56.bankruptcy and foreclosures and things like that. There is an
:11:56. > :11:59.election coming up. They have only got 18 months to generate a boom of
:11:59. > :12:03.some kind in the economy. If it can't be an expert boom, it will be
:12:03. > :12:06.a consumer and mortgage boom, that is where we are moving. Norman
:12:06. > :12:13.Lamont, takes through your favourite recent graph. That hasn't
:12:13. > :12:17.come up yet. It will come up I hope very shortly? My graph is of the
:12:17. > :12:22.purchasing managers' index. This is of the whole economy, including
:12:22. > :12:27.services and manufacturing. When it is above 50% that indicates that
:12:27. > :12:35.people are expecting their order books, their business to increase
:12:35. > :12:41.to do well. So in the past it has been a very good guide to the trend
:12:41. > :12:45.of GDP. And here if you look at it, this is for the services sector,
:12:45. > :12:50.which is the largest part of the economy, it would be even more
:12:50. > :12:55.marked and show a big increase in optimisim. As I say that in the
:12:55. > :13:01.past, historically has been closely co-related with the trend of the
:13:01. > :13:04.economy. The amount of upbeatness you can see among people making
:13:05. > :13:08.purchasing decisions, is that it? That's right. That indicates how
:13:08. > :13:14.they feel the economy is going, is that the idea? It is an ago gaigs
:13:14. > :13:18.of all the businesses in -- ago gregaigs of all the businesses in
:13:18. > :13:21.the country, done by survey of what they expect to happen in their
:13:21. > :13:26.businesses. Doesn't that confirm what Gillian was saying that there
:13:26. > :13:30.is more confidence about? Yes, I do believe there is a basis for
:13:30. > :13:39.thinking that we are about to see a bit of an upturn. I don't think it
:13:39. > :13:42.will be very spectacular. I don't think it should be spectacular, a
:13:42. > :13:46.gradual recovery is what we want rather than a fast recovery. There
:13:46. > :13:50.are a lot of adjustments, the rebalancing Gillian referred to,
:13:51. > :13:55.that need to be made in the economy. I think this ought to take time.
:13:55. > :14:01.Could we call it green shoots do you think? We shouldn't confuse
:14:01. > :14:04.green shoots with trees or buds or flowers like those behind you!
:14:04. > :14:08.Green shoots are merely green shoots, the beginning of something.
:14:08. > :14:11.We may be seeing some green shoots about now? It is possible, but I
:14:11. > :14:16.think what history, can I just say this, I think what history
:14:16. > :14:20.demonstrates is when you have had a big banking failure that sort of
:14:20. > :14:24.recovery is much more prolonged and much more gradual and we should
:14:24. > :14:29.expect it to be a little bit bumpy. Many years ago when I was a
:14:29. > :14:38.journalist I learned to write the word "bank" in short hand, you go
:14:38. > :14:46.down very sharply for a "b" and then a "n" and then a "k", we down
:14:46. > :14:52.sharply and we bounced up a bit and then bounced on the bottom. That is
:14:52. > :14:57.also presumably how you spell "bonk"? Or pink. The first thing
:14:57. > :15:02.that happens is you start falling. You can see that from the chart.
:15:02. > :15:06.What do you make of the graph? agree broadly with what people are
:15:06. > :15:10.saying. We are starting to see the first green shoots. When I came to
:15:10. > :15:15.see the pictures in the studio that is pushing up the daisies as well!
:15:15. > :15:23.Are we pushing up the daisies. was my joke! I think you better
:15:23. > :15:27.show us yours and then we can talk more generally. There it is.
:15:27. > :15:31.spent spend my time travelling around the world now. I write for
:15:31. > :15:34.an international audience for Reuters and the New York Times, I'm
:15:34. > :15:39.also making comparisons between what is going on around the world.
:15:40. > :15:42.The issue posed right at the beginning of the broadcast is if
:15:43. > :15:47.the recovery is happening is it because of George Osborne's
:15:47. > :15:50.ministrations or despite it. I think this chart, believe it or not,
:15:50. > :15:54.demonstrates quite clearly the answer to that question and that is
:15:54. > :15:58.that the recovery so far is very much despite George Osborne's
:15:58. > :16:04.ministrations. Now it may be that the policies is about to change
:16:04. > :16:14.drammatically, but what this chart shows is growth in the UK, the blue
:16:14. > :16:16.
:16:17. > :16:20.line, and growth in the US, the Green Line. So the British economy
:16:20. > :16:24.was stronger than the US economy going into the recession. They fell
:16:24. > :16:29.almost exactly the same amount. They both had the same problems,
:16:29. > :16:32.large financial sector, falling housing market, large levels of
:16:32. > :16:37.Government debt. They both bounced back at the same time, through 2010
:16:37. > :16:42.there is a marked divergence. The US economy continues to grow
:16:42. > :16:46.between 2.5%, the UK falls back. That is because of the fiscal
:16:46. > :16:51.tightening, the austerity policy, the higher taxes, the big cuts in
:16:51. > :16:55.public pend spending which really began in my view and the IMF
:16:55. > :17:00.confirms this from 2010 on wards. The gap between those lines is
:17:00. > :17:04.about 2% of GDP. And just to give you an idea of what that
:17:04. > :17:08.meaningless sort of statistic actually signifies, that's
:17:08. > :17:11.equivalent to about half a million jobs. So the difference between the
:17:11. > :17:15.performance of the two economies is roughly equivalent to half a
:17:15. > :17:19.million jobs, I would say. I would broadly agree, I make two points,
:17:19. > :17:25.America is now tightening fiscal policy, partly as a result of this
:17:25. > :17:27.gridlock in Washington right now. At the right time. We did it too
:17:27. > :17:31.early. Secondly, one reason why there is a difference in sentiment
:17:31. > :17:36.between the US and the UK is America has had this cleansing
:17:36. > :17:39.process of seeing a lot of defaults on the mortgages, a lot of the debt
:17:39. > :17:43.repaid in the household sector, going back to the chart I started
:17:43. > :17:46.with, which hasn't happened yet in the UK. This is he very interesting
:17:46. > :17:51.it suggests some sort of recovery might have happened any way despite
:17:51. > :17:55.George Osborne? I would make a couple of repoints in regards to
:17:55. > :17:57.the graph. Firstly the financial sector, though large in both
:17:57. > :18:03.economies, is much larger in relation to the total economy in
:18:03. > :18:06.the UK than in the US. We have a bigger crater caused by the
:18:06. > :18:11.collapse of the banks. Secondly, when you are comparing where we
:18:11. > :18:14.were at the beginning of the crisis, with where we are now, I think in
:18:14. > :18:22.one sense that is irrelevant. Because it all depends was the
:18:22. > :18:28.growth that we had before the crisis real or was it in losery? In
:18:28. > :18:35.my opinion a lot of the growth we had in 20067/07 was debt filled.
:18:35. > :18:42.The fact that we are not back up where we were in 207 and America is
:18:42. > :18:48.-- 2007, and America is back up, is just a reflection of how eluisery
:18:48. > :18:56.it was before the crash. What sort of level will we be back to the
:18:56. > :19:02.sort of period Norman Lamont is talking about in 2007? If the help
:19:02. > :19:06.to buy George Osborne boom turns out to be real, then I would say
:19:06. > :19:12.2015/16. I would roughly the same thing. I think about the same, but
:19:12. > :19:17.compare it with Italy or Spain. Even if they grew at 1.5% peran
:19:17. > :19:26.number, it wouldn't be before 2018/19 they were back to the level
:19:26. > :19:29.they were. We are doing a lot better than some other people.
:19:29. > :19:33.Great charts. It was basey old day for the riot
:19:33. > :19:37.police in Istanbul, teargas, water canon and endless pushing and
:19:37. > :19:40.shoving as they tried to clear Taksim Square. The scene of days of
:19:40. > :19:44.protest against the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Were we going
:19:44. > :19:50.to kneel down in front of these people, he asked a meeting of MPs
:19:50. > :19:54.today, he wasn't expecting the answer "yes". Nor were the
:19:54. > :19:59.campaigners he calls "riffraff". He spoke to Jeremy Bowen earlier who
:19:59. > :20:03.had just been hit by teargas. Can you talk us through what
:20:03. > :20:06.happened today Jeremy? Well it has been a long day of clashes here,
:20:06. > :20:10.they are going on as I speak. There is a lot of teargas in the air,
:20:10. > :20:16.that is why I have got this. Just in the last few minutes I have seen
:20:16. > :20:21.a water canon down there. More riot squads firing volleys of teargas
:20:21. > :20:24.grenades, those are the bangs you can hear, towards the demonstrators
:20:24. > :20:28.below there. There are still thousands of demonstrators in Gezi
:20:28. > :20:35.Park, over my right shoulder. And here in Taksim Square there are
:20:35. > :20:40.police, riot squads, water canon and all the paraphernalia of the
:20:40. > :20:43.Turkish state. There will be a lot of Turk watching it on TV,
:20:43. > :20:47.supporters of the Prime Minister saying good, these people are
:20:47. > :20:50.getting what's coming to them. There is the other half of the
:20:50. > :21:00.country with the protesters, this country is split. Wasn't he saying
:21:00. > :21:01.
:21:01. > :21:04.until very, very recently that he would open talks with them? Yeah
:21:04. > :21:10.there have been complaints about the people they were talking to
:21:10. > :21:14.tomorrow are people hand picked by the AK Party. By the Prime
:21:14. > :21:17.Minister's party as suitable people to negotiate with. A lot of people
:21:17. > :21:21.here in Gezi Park have repudiated them as being not representative
:21:21. > :21:25.and saying they are not going to be affected by anything that they do.
:21:25. > :21:29.The thing is that ever since he returned from his North Africa tour
:21:30. > :21:37.at the end of last week Mr Erdogan has been pretty much unremittingly
:21:38. > :21:42.hostile in his rhetoric towards the protestors. Some people, some long
:21:42. > :21:46.time observers of Turkish politics were hoping he might produce a U-
:21:46. > :21:49.turn when he got back and reach out to elements of them and got a deal.
:21:49. > :21:52.He wouldn't have won three elections here without being a
:21:52. > :21:57.canny politician. He has taken a very hardline, used very tough
:21:57. > :22:04.language, and of course in the last 12 hours or so he has sent in the
:22:04. > :22:08.riot squads here. Right in the centre of Istanbul in this city's
:22:09. > :22:12.equivalent of Travers square or Leicester Square. We are talking
:22:12. > :22:22.about something localised with profound implication, how untable
:22:22. > :22:23.
:22:23. > :22:28.is the situation? There is a risk if they don't find way out of this
:22:28. > :22:33.that is in some sense consensual, there is a risk that parts of this
:22:33. > :22:37.country might become, for a while, ungovernable. I think it is that
:22:37. > :22:39.serious. There is a groundswell among half the population. Half the
:22:39. > :22:44.population voted for the Prime Minister in the last elections,
:22:44. > :22:50.there is a glound swell of people who are -- groundswell of people
:22:50. > :22:53.who are fed up with his autocratic style. His supporters has said he
:22:53. > :23:01.has presided over unprecedented growth in the Turkish economy. The
:23:01. > :23:03.muscling up of their diplomatic clout across the Middle East. He is
:23:03. > :23:07.turning Turkey back into a great power. Why are these people getting
:23:07. > :23:13.in the way. These people would argue, and they are chanting again,
:23:13. > :23:15.that they are shoulder-to-shoulder against fascism. That is one of the
:23:15. > :23:24.great slogans they use they are, that is what they believe they are
:23:24. > :23:28.fighting. Any word of what the army thinks? The army has been very
:23:28. > :23:31.quiet. Don't forget Mr Erdogan has put large numbers of generals in
:23:31. > :23:34.prison, because the army of course, which held political power in this
:23:34. > :23:38.country for a long time and felt they were the guardians of the
:23:38. > :23:42.secular state. The people who would move in if there was trouble going
:23:42. > :23:45.on and who took part in a number of bloody military coups and military
:23:45. > :23:49.Governments, they have been very much sent back to their barracks
:23:49. > :23:54.under Mr Erdogan. He has used quite strong language. He has said that
:23:54. > :24:00.the atmosphere reminds him of the period leading up to past military
:24:00. > :24:04.coups. So he is in a sense raising that specter as if to say "don't
:24:04. > :24:10.you dare"! Thank you very much, look after yourself.
:24:10. > :24:13.Now by a margin of 36 -0, the Russian parliament voted this
:24:13. > :24:17.afternoon to ban distribution of information about homosexuality to
:24:17. > :24:22.children. The rules of the Douma are obviously a bit like those of
:24:22. > :24:29.the philosophy department at Monty Python's Outback University where
:24:29. > :24:34.everyone is called Bruce. The idea of banning what was coyly called of
:24:34. > :24:44.the non-traditional sexual relations, is part of an attempt to
:24:44. > :24:47.
:24:47. > :24:55.inoculate the country against the western liberals.
:24:55. > :24:58.This is the lower house of the ru. Parliament the Douma. It isn't one
:24:58. > :25:03.the Russian parliament, the Douma, it isn't one of the greatest
:25:03. > :25:06.landmarks, yet it says so much about what is happening in Russia
:25:07. > :25:13.today. It was a dramatic day in the Douma, much of it unfolded outside
:25:13. > :25:18.the building. When I came down here earlier I witnessed clashes between
:25:18. > :25:22.gay rights activists and anti-gay campaigners. The gay rights groups
:25:22. > :25:26.were shouting things like "we should have the same right as
:25:26. > :25:30.everyone else", their opponents responded with "Moscow is not
:25:30. > :25:35.sodom" and calls on the police to beat up homosexuals. At one point
:25:35. > :25:41.the violence spilled on to the main shopping street, with the gay
:25:41. > :25:44.rights activists literally being hunted down and attacked. A few
:25:44. > :25:48.hours later Russian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of a
:25:48. > :25:52.controversial piece of legislation. It imposes heavy fines on anyone
:25:52. > :25:56.who provides information to under- 18s about what is described as
:25:56. > :26:02."untraditional sexual relations". So what does all this tell us about
:26:02. > :26:06.the direction in which Russia is moving? First of all it shows that
:26:06. > :26:10.the Kremlin, which continues to dictate all policy here is growing
:26:10. > :26:13.more conservative. Vladimir Putin may be the first
:26:13. > :26:18.Russian lead in 300 years to announce he's getting a divorce. He
:26:18. > :26:23.has made traditional family values, marriage, children and the church a
:26:23. > :26:28.cornerstone of his third term in office. It is almost becoming the
:26:28. > :26:33.state ideology in place of communism. And liberal values,
:26:33. > :26:36.whether political, social or sexual have no room in this very
:26:36. > :26:40.conservative outlook. This world view goes down very well with many
:26:40. > :26:44.ordinary Russians. I witnessed an interesting conversation today
:26:44. > :26:47.outside the parliament, an anti-gay activist was telling two gay rights
:26:47. > :26:50.campaigners that people in Russia should never behave the way they do.
:26:50. > :26:57.And if they wanted to be homosexuals they should clear off
:26:57. > :27:02.and go and live in Europe. In fact, one opinion poll out today showed
:27:02. > :27:05.that 88% of Russians supports the law on homosexuality, passed by the
:27:05. > :27:08.parliament. And another recent survey showed that nearly half the
:27:08. > :27:14.population believes that Russia's gay and lesbian community should
:27:14. > :27:19.not enjoy the same rights as other citizens. Now these figures reflect
:27:19. > :27:23.another key change in Russia. Russian society is growing more
:27:23. > :27:27.intolerant of anyone who looks different, who thinks different,
:27:27. > :27:32.who behaves different. That includes sexual minorities, ethnic
:27:32. > :27:38.minorities and political minorities. While that trend continues Russia
:27:38. > :27:44.will remain on a very different path from the west.
:27:44. > :27:51.I'm joined by two guests in Moscow. A singer who was awarded the title
:27:51. > :27:54.of Honoured Artist to Russia by President Putin, and her former
:27:54. > :28:01.television presenter who outed himself on television. He was
:28:01. > :28:09.subsequently sacked for doing so. This astonishing vote in the Douma,
:28:09. > :28:13.463-0. Do you think that really reflects Russian opinion? I was
:28:13. > :28:20.listening to the coverage of the issue, it was funny. It was funny
:28:20. > :28:28.to me because it is nothing to do with politics. Being the mother of
:28:28. > :28:33.three children I approve this bill because I want to defend my
:28:33. > :28:38.children, first of all. Then I don't care, I don't want to meddle
:28:39. > :28:45.with other people's lives. I don't care what they do behind their
:28:45. > :28:53.doors. But they do care -- but I do care about my children's bringing
:28:53. > :29:02.up. You know it is the situation not only me thinks like that. The
:29:02. > :29:08.vast majority of people in Russia 88% of people support the ban of
:29:08. > :29:12.homosexuality propaganda. That's a fact. And this bill
:29:12. > :29:17.responds to people's demands. hear what you say.
:29:17. > :29:21.Anton, tell us as a gay man, you came out on television. You lost
:29:21. > :29:27.your job, you believe as a consequence. What else happened.
:29:27. > :29:31.What is the feeling in your country? I'm glad that Valariea,
:29:31. > :29:36.that situation is very funny for her, but it is not fun for me. I
:29:36. > :29:42.think it is against me, against my family, against all gay people in
:29:42. > :29:47.Russia. From today. No, no.Yes, yes. Hi. Good night. I have a lot
:29:47. > :29:53.of fans who belong to the gay society it is not true. Can I.
:29:53. > :30:01.Excuse me. From today I cannot say that I'm gay and I'm the same human
:30:01. > :30:11.being like you, like President Putin, like all of you. Because
:30:11. > :30:16.from today I will have to pay for this from �100-�2,000 because these
:30:16. > :30:20.words could be taken as propaganda and she knows it, right? Just a
:30:20. > :30:25.second, I don't understand your argument, you are saying just
:30:25. > :30:30.because you are gay you are making propaganda for...Exactly. So you
:30:30. > :30:37.are illegal, you feel? If I said that I am gay and I'm the same
:30:37. > :30:44.human being, like you, for example, injure me, and it could be taken
:30:44. > :30:49.like propaganda. That's outrageous? I foal the minority in my country,
:30:49. > :30:58.believe me. I have a lot of friends who belong to the gay society, and
:30:59. > :31:03.they do not support their uni sexual matters or would take part
:31:03. > :31:08.in a gay parade, they are normal people. There is a lot of people
:31:08. > :31:17.who belong to gay society still, they are still working on TV, in
:31:17. > :31:24.the media and all over. I don't know why it happened to you? Anton,
:31:24. > :31:29.come on? Are they open gays? Yeah, a lot of artists are openly gay.
:31:29. > :31:38.please, tell me, who exactly is openly gay in the Russian media, in
:31:38. > :31:47.the Russian pop business, in Russian showbiz, who is it? Sergie
:31:47. > :31:50.Pankin. He's an open gay? Really? tell you what, we have world
:31:50. > :31:55.renowned libel courts we will leave the naming of names. Nobody knows
:31:55. > :32:02.who that is. Can you help us with this question Anton, first off,
:32:02. > :32:05.what is it about your society and homosexuality? What do you mean
:32:06. > :32:09.exactly. Why is it such an issue, this would not be an issue in
:32:09. > :32:16.western Europe, for example, or the United States. What is it
:32:16. > :32:20.particular to Russian society that makes it such a sensitive matter?
:32:20. > :32:23.I'm not sure if it is a sensitive matter in Russia. I think it is a
:32:24. > :32:32.sensitive matter for the Russian state. It is a big question, why? I
:32:32. > :32:40.have no answer. Maybe Valeria knows. What I know is our society is based
:32:40. > :32:50.on Christian morality, still. In spite of the "enlightened European
:32:50. > :32:51.
:32:51. > :32:55.tendencies", a lot of people try to think the same way. We are
:32:55. > :33:00.different the vast majority of people. It is interesting to hear
:33:00. > :33:08.about Christians. Pardon me. Do you think it has much to do with the
:33:08. > :33:15.communist history in your country Not at all. Let's put it like that,
:33:15. > :33:22.the more aggressive propaganda of homosexuality, the less people feel
:33:22. > :33:27.loyalty towards them. Towards the gay society. That's it. That's it.
:33:27. > :33:33.It is very fun to hear about orthodox values from pop singer. It
:33:33. > :33:43.is really fun. I just want to say one point. You talk about the
:33:43. > :33:49.majority, about the majority wants it. I just want to remind you that
:33:49. > :33:59.95% in Nazi Germany supported laws against Jews, homosexuals, and
:33:59. > :34:00.
:34:00. > :34:04.gypsies, 95% of German people in 1935. Do remember what was in 1945,
:34:05. > :34:10.right. Are you saying that you feel personally in danger as a
:34:10. > :34:17.consequence of this legislation? Sure. I have three children, I have
:34:17. > :34:23.the youngest son is 14 years old, I don't want him to be influenced by
:34:23. > :34:30.anybody through the Internet mostly. Wow. You understand me.You are a
:34:30. > :34:36.pop singer right? You have gay friends. Yes I am. They are normal
:34:36. > :34:46.people. Uuraguay friends do you feel they make something like
:34:46. > :34:47.
:34:47. > :34:52.propaganda to your 14-year-old son. Of course not. Yesterday I saw in
:34:52. > :34:59.the news that one man was arrested for attempted sexual relations with
:34:59. > :35:05.a 14-year-old boy, that should be punished. This case is criminal.
:35:05. > :35:11.Presumably it is already punishable in your country isn't it? Child
:35:11. > :35:18.abuse is not a crime in Russia? sure. Yes, of course it is.
:35:18. > :35:24.OK all right. But it is nothing had had happened it was just an attempt.
:35:24. > :35:29.It was a homosexual attempt it could influence... Thank you, thank
:35:29. > :35:34.you. Good thank you very much indeed, thank you.
:35:34. > :35:40.How odd were you? How old, sorry, how old were your children when
:35:40. > :35:43.they left home? The average age is 24, unless you are in the care of
:35:43. > :35:47.the state, which decrease it is entitled to end its commitment when
:35:47. > :35:50.a young person reaches 16. Sometimes you might be able to
:35:50. > :35:55.prolong your foster care until you are 18 and so avoid having to sit
:35:55. > :35:58.your A-levels from some hostel. But a group of MPs were hoping today to
:35:58. > :36:01.get parliament to agree that young people in foster care might be
:36:01. > :36:08.supported until the age of 2. But the House of Commons speaker didn't
:36:08. > :36:13.give them a chance -- 21. How the House of Commons speaker didn't
:36:13. > :36:17.give them the chance. We filmed children in care a few years ago
:36:17. > :36:22.and followed them now until they are 21 and asked if the raised age
:36:22. > :36:27.would have made a difference to them. Four years ago Newsnight met
:36:27. > :36:33.Phil Fuller, he had just turned 18. He was loving his new job as a
:36:33. > :36:36.steward for the Leicester Tigers Rugby club. After seven years in
:36:37. > :36:42.foster care he told our reporter that he felt ready to face the
:36:42. > :36:50.world. My care experience has been all right. It's been good. Got the
:36:50. > :36:54.best out of it. When you say you have the best out of it, what do
:36:54. > :36:59.you mean? Everything I really wanted to. Get my confidence up and
:36:59. > :37:05.self-esteem, go to groups and stuff. Keep myself busy and stuff. And now
:37:05. > :37:08.you have your own flat? Yes.Now 21 Phil says that looking back he
:37:08. > :37:12.wasn't ready to live alone and moving out of care was much harder
:37:12. > :37:18.than he thought it would be. probably thought I was ready then
:37:18. > :37:24.because I was immature and thought I can do it. My own property,
:37:24. > :37:29.parties, you know, friends round whenever you want and stuff. But
:37:29. > :37:34.now I just weren't ready, I didn't have some of the skills that I
:37:34. > :37:39.needed to go into having my own place and stuff. I had to like ask
:37:39. > :37:44.people to lend me a tenner here or a fiver here for paying the gas or
:37:44. > :37:49.the electric or get some extra food stuffs in. You got into debt?Yeah,
:37:49. > :37:52.I got into a bit of debt. average young people don't leave
:37:52. > :37:56.home until they are 24. Yet children in care are expecting to
:37:56. > :38:00.be ready to go out into the world at the age of 18. Campaigners say
:38:00. > :38:04.that if they were supported for just a few more years fewer of them
:38:04. > :38:12.would end up in trouble and more of them might well end up in higher
:38:12. > :38:17.education. Last year 6,600 19-year-olds left
:38:17. > :38:22.care. Of those just 5% are living with former foster families. But
:38:22. > :38:27.under a 2008 pilot scheme, which funded foster care until aged 21,
:38:27. > :38:31.23% chose to stay in their foster homes, a significant increase. The
:38:31. > :38:37.cost of rolling this scheme out nationally would be around �2.6
:38:37. > :38:42.million. Today several MPs called on the Government to raise the age
:38:42. > :38:47.children leave foster care to 21. What difference have we made as
:38:47. > :38:49.parents if children in our care end up on the streets or in jail or
:38:49. > :38:54.with disabling mental health problems. Another generation doomed
:38:54. > :38:57.to mirror the lives of their own parents. Why would we not let them
:38:57. > :39:01.stay with their foster carers for those important extra three years.
:39:01. > :39:07.The minister said he wants local authorities to prioritise helping
:39:07. > :39:12.children to stay on in care. Or what's called "staying put". I have
:39:12. > :39:16.written to all directors of childrens' services for staying put
:39:16. > :39:22.arrangements and tax and benefit issues. But he didn't promise any
:39:22. > :39:26.legislation or any more money. Without more cash it is hard to see
:39:26. > :39:29.local Government prioritising it. The LGA has said that the
:39:29. > :39:39.Government cannot place new financial expectations on councils
:39:39. > :39:39.
:39:39. > :39:43.at a time when they are imposing drastic cuts.
:39:43. > :39:47.In 2009 Caroline was a college student, studying performing arts.
:39:47. > :39:52.She hoped to go on to university and to be a social worker.
:39:52. > :40:00.Hopefully with my experience and then what I learn as well I can
:40:00. > :40:04.make childrens' lives better. she has her hands full with three-
:40:04. > :40:08.month-old Archie. After leaving foster care she moved in with hered
:40:08. > :40:11.dad. She dreads to think what would have happened if he hadn't been
:40:11. > :40:14.there. I was really immature, I would have gone down the route of
:40:14. > :40:19.drinking, probably drugs. If you hadn't lived with your dad? If I
:40:19. > :40:23.was out on the streets on my own or living in my own property, probably
:40:23. > :40:27.would have gone down that route. you think that's, is that your
:40:27. > :40:31.worry, do you think that is what is happening in a lot of places for a
:40:31. > :40:37.lot of people do you think? Yeah. I think they have not got the family
:40:37. > :40:42.support, the right friendship groups, they do go down the wrong
:40:42. > :40:45.route. So I think up until they are 21 or, like I say, even later in
:40:45. > :40:49.life. I think that the local authority should be there to
:40:49. > :40:54.support them and give them that family background, that family
:40:54. > :40:58.support that they do need. Phil is now working for an education
:40:58. > :41:03.charity and he's mentoring children. He thinks young people would get on
:41:03. > :41:08.better in life if they were cared for well into their 20s.
:41:08. > :41:16.I think they should extend the period so young people are in care
:41:16. > :41:22.to stay with their foster parents or gain extra skills. I wouldn't
:41:22. > :41:28.say 21 I would say 24, 25, like a normal young person with their
:41:28. > :41:32.biological parents. Normally they do stay up to 25, 28. So it just
:41:32. > :41:37.keeps us all on a level playing field. The campaign to raise the
:41:37. > :41:41.age for leaving foster care to 21 has stalled, because for now it is
:41:41. > :41:44.hard to see where the money will come from.
:41:44. > :41:52.Scientists in Singapore are said to have discovered the thing that
:41:52. > :41:55.every child desires, as HG Wells heros discovered, invisibility
:41:55. > :41:59.makes it possible to achieve all things people desire. Even if it
:41:59. > :42:04.makes impossible to enjoy them. It doesn't stop it being a dream.
:42:04. > :42:08.Indeed if these scientists are to be believed, it may not remain a
:42:08. > :42:15.dream indefinitely. Is it possible invisibility might really be
:42:15. > :42:19.achievable? Professor Chris Philips from Imperial College believes so,
:42:19. > :42:23.and he can explain why. Do you think it is impossible? No it is
:42:23. > :42:26.happening already. Let as look at these photographs we have got. I
:42:26. > :42:32.don't know if it is a cat or cold fish, both have been made to be
:42:32. > :42:38.invisible and not before time. Many would feel. Let's see if we can
:42:39. > :42:48.look at the pictures. No we can't. Yes we can. That is the goldfish.
:42:49. > :42:49.
:42:49. > :42:57.There it is. There is the cat. It does disappear, how is it happening
:42:57. > :43:00.there? If you are a cat and you want to disappear. You go under the
:43:00. > :43:03.bed?. That is hiding, if you put a bag over your head people know you
:43:03. > :43:07.are there. If you want to be ins haveable you have to arrange for
:43:07. > :43:10.the light behind you, hide yourself and arrange for the image behind
:43:10. > :43:13.you to come around you and to be brought back together just as if
:43:14. > :43:19.you weren't there. That is what that device does. It is a kind of.
:43:19. > :43:25.You could see it was a plate or something inside the goldfish tank?
:43:25. > :43:28.I think it is a set of crystals. What is actually happening?
:43:28. > :43:33.means the background image is being guided around the cat and brought
:43:33. > :43:41.back together. If the cat sits in the middle of the device it
:43:41. > :43:45.disappears and vanishs. Why is that useful or worth scientific
:43:45. > :43:48.research? It is an example, you notes these stories are come --
:43:48. > :43:52.knows these stories crumbing through more and more, of people's
:43:53. > :43:57.quest to control light, the bending of light. Why is that useful?We
:43:57. > :44:00.had an example early on when Jeremy was there with his live pictures
:44:00. > :44:05.from Turkey. Those pictures were actually being turned into tiny
:44:05. > :44:10.little flashes of light and sent to us down a cable of optic fibre. At
:44:10. > :44:15.every point in those optic fibres and the Internet you want it make
:44:15. > :44:19.circuits out of light. You know instead of making circuits out of
:44:19. > :44:24.electronics, you would like to send thes of light around, this research
:44:24. > :44:31.that yields the cloaks is driven by the quest to control light inside
:44:31. > :44:35.the optic circuits. You used the word "cloak", talking the language
:44:35. > :44:42.of Harry Potter. It didn't look like a cloak, it looked like a
:44:42. > :44:46.plate of some kind. Are we talking about something feesably as
:44:46. > :44:50.effective as a piece of clothing? That thing doesn't have to be
:44:50. > :44:55.flexible, if you can't be seen that is the idea of the cloak. There are
:44:55. > :44:59.other ways of vanishing, you can do something called adaptive
:44:59. > :45:04.camouflage, where you have cameras that are connected to electronics
:45:04. > :45:08.in your coach, and you have a coat that is a flexible TV screen. That
:45:08. > :45:13.would show the picture behind you, if you get it all right it would
:45:13. > :45:18.look like you have vanished. As far as the invisibility cloak of the
:45:18. > :45:23.other kind, the light-bending cloak? We call that a cloak, yes.
:45:23. > :45:28.How far off are scientists from App Developersing or discovering such a
:45:28. > :45:32.thing and other people developing it? It has been demonstrated in
:45:32. > :45:37.radio waves, it is easier to make the wavelengths that we can't see.
:45:37. > :45:41.There is a man called John Pendry at Imperial College, he was the
:45:41. > :45:45.first to develop the idea. The first demonstration was with radio
:45:45. > :45:48.wave, it would hide something from ray door. To make one that hides
:45:48. > :45:57.things at light frequencies is harder but an engineering problem
:45:57. > :46:07.and it will get there in the next 20 years or so. Thank you very much.
:46:07. > :46:44.
:46:45. > :46:49.There you are, hoisted with your on It is the moment for us all to be
:46:49. > :46:59.invisible, not before time you may agree. We will materialise again
:46:59. > :47:23.
:47:23. > :47:28.tomorrow. Good night. Much warmer night
:47:28. > :47:32.tonight compared to last night. A humid feel on Wednesday. But quite
:47:32. > :47:35.a lot of cloud again. We will see sunshine developing, sunny spells
:47:35. > :47:39.through central and eastern Scotland, eastern England also
:47:39. > :47:42.brightening up. Further south a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain.
:47:42. > :47:46.Sunny spells across Northern Ireland. Clouding over here once
:47:46. > :47:50.more. Probably a wet start for northern Scotland. It looks dryer
:47:50. > :47:54.by the afternoon. Sunny spells for most of the day through the central
:47:54. > :47:59.belt. Cloud returning bringing rain here during the evening. Mostly
:47:59. > :48:02.grey across North West of England. We could hit 20 with a little
:48:02. > :48:07.sunshine. For the bulk of England and Wales, temperatures will be in
:48:07. > :48:11.the mid-teens, and rain will return to many southern areas, it looks
:48:11. > :48:14.like during the day. Turning increasingly windy, the wind
:48:14. > :48:17.picking up across South Wales and south-west England. Especially
:48:17. > :48:21.during Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday looks like being
:48:21. > :48:23.a fairly blustery day. There will be some sunny spells. Interest will
:48:23. > :48:27.be bands of showery rain, particularly across the northern
:48:27. > :48:30.half of the UK. Further south there will be a few showers around, we
:48:30. > :48:33.should see a little more in the way of sunshine here on Thursday.
:48:33. > :48:37.Slightly fresher feel however, temperatures being down, it won't