:00:19. > :00:23.watches, Egypt trembles, men, women and children are dying in Syria, is
:00:23. > :00:28.it time to arm the rebels fighting the Assad dictatorship, in a
:00:28. > :00:33.special programme tonight, we will hear why common humanity demands we
:00:33. > :00:37.act and common sense may demand we don't. Two politicians, one for
:00:37. > :00:41.intervention and one who thinks it would be a disaster make their case.
:00:41. > :00:45.They face questions on what's at stake. Among our guests here in the
:00:45. > :00:48.studio, all of whom ought to know what they are talking about, people
:00:49. > :00:53.with families living in the Syrian cauldron, a commander of
:00:53. > :00:56.intervention forces in the Balkans, a former American Assistant
:00:56. > :01:01.Secretary of State, a Times journalist who has spent months at
:01:01. > :01:11.the war, and the UNICEF ambassador back today from Syrian refugee
:01:11. > :01:18.
:01:18. > :01:21.camps. In Cairo today the military were quickly building new civilian
:01:21. > :01:25.ministers in the Government they are building hoping people will
:01:25. > :01:32.bear with them and avoiding a civil war, we shall see if it works. In
:01:32. > :01:38.Syria one rages, it is currently focused on Syria's third-biggest
:01:38. > :01:43.city, Homs, bombed by Assad forces for 11 days and where humanitarian
:01:43. > :01:46.organisations say people are dying for lack of medical care. The
:01:46. > :01:51.Russians, the regime's most powerful supporters said their
:01:51. > :01:56.analysis confirmed the use of chemical weapons in the war, but
:01:56. > :01:59.unlike western powers who blame President Assad's forces they claim
:01:59. > :02:03.it is most likely the rebels who were responsible.
:02:03. > :02:09.Our correspondent is in Beirut for us. What is happening in Syria
:02:09. > :02:15.right now? First of all I should say Beirut has seen something it
:02:15. > :02:18.hasn't for a long time, it was a car bomb in Shi'ite Hezbollah
:02:18. > :02:24.southern Beirut. Everybody assumes that is payback for Hezbollah
:02:24. > :02:29.sending fighters to aid the Syrian regime. Most notably in Qasar, they
:02:29. > :02:33.are noted to be helping the Syrian regime capture Homs. We spoke to
:02:33. > :02:38.people in areas held by the rebels for the past two years, almost
:02:38. > :02:42.deserted now, a few fighters remaining behind to make a last-
:02:42. > :02:46.ditch stand, some strapping on suicide vests, the fall of Homs
:02:46. > :02:49.seems imminent, that would be a bad blow indeed for the rebels.
:02:49. > :02:54.have been in and out of Syria for the last couple of years, what is
:02:54. > :02:58.your assessment of where the advantage lies in the war?
:02:58. > :03:02.Certainly it is now with the regime. I think that is because essentially
:03:02. > :03:05.the revolution is devouring itself. There is an epidemic of criminality
:03:05. > :03:10.on the rebel side. There is kidnapping, there is looting,
:03:10. > :03:12.sometimes by criminal gangs under the flag of the revolution,
:03:12. > :03:16.sometimes by opposition armed groups who need to fund their
:03:16. > :03:20.activities. All of that, of course, is leading to an increase in
:03:20. > :03:23.popularity by the Jihadis. They were very minor a year ago, now
:03:23. > :03:27.they are extremely important players. The more secular groups
:03:27. > :03:30.are losing out in the battle for spoils. I think that the immediate
:03:30. > :03:35.effect of sending weapons to groups favoured by the west would not be
:03:35. > :03:41.an increase in action against the regime, it would be a real scrap
:03:41. > :03:45.with the Jihadists. Are there any groups within the
:03:45. > :03:48.opposition, briefly, whom the west could support? There are certainly
:03:48. > :03:52.more secular groups, there are groups which can point to a charter
:03:52. > :03:55.for human rights and there are groups which I think the British
:03:55. > :03:59.Government, the French Government and others have identified. They
:03:59. > :04:03.are extremely bitter though. I was speaking to a senior commander this
:04:03. > :04:08.week that the weapons, largely because of Saudi influence still
:04:08. > :04:11.seem to be flowing to Salafi groups. As I said, before there is any
:04:11. > :04:18.effort against the regime, new weapons would be part of what you
:04:18. > :04:22.could call a civil war within the civil war. The civil war in Syria
:04:22. > :04:27.began merely as part of the Arab Spring. Mark Urban is here to tell
:04:27. > :04:31.us how we got to this point. This is a war that has escalated
:04:31. > :04:36.and mutated time and again. Firstly, there has been geographic
:04:36. > :04:42.escalation, most people date the Syrian uprising start to a protest
:04:42. > :04:49.in the south in Deraa in March 2011. It started with graffiti and the
:04:49. > :04:53.pulling down of a statue of Bashar Assad's father, that resulted in
:04:53. > :04:58.arrests and torture, triggering more protests and the use of live
:04:58. > :05:04.fire by Government security people. The early hot spots were Deraa,
:05:04. > :05:08.Hama and certain parts of Homs. At that point and indeed for the first
:05:08. > :05:15.year of conflict, major centres such as Aleppo and Damascus
:05:15. > :05:21.remained largely untouched. Bit by bit the war has consumed one
:05:21. > :05:28.population centre after another. Homs, Aleppo and Damascus, all
:05:28. > :05:31.heavily damaged last year. Now, among the cities, it is only Tartus
:05:31. > :05:37.and Latakia, regime strongholds on the coast that remain largely
:05:37. > :05:41.intact. Along with this geographic spread, the level of violence has
:05:41. > :05:49.been climbing steady upwards too. Early demonstrations prompted
:05:49. > :05:54.gunfire from Assad troops. By the time the district of Homs was being
:05:54. > :05:59.attacked Earl ly -- early in 2012, artillery and tanks were being used
:05:59. > :06:03.freely. By the summer of 2012 the air force too was being used to
:06:03. > :06:07.bomb, often highly inaccurately. Towards the tailend of last year,
:06:07. > :06:11.scud missiles were fired at parts of Aleppo. The final escalation to
:06:11. > :06:16.chemical weapons is alleged by the western powers to have started at
:06:16. > :06:21.around that time too. But the insurgency has also upped the
:06:21. > :06:24.weaponry, starting out with shotguns or a few smuggled rifles,
:06:24. > :06:30.it went on to use more car bombs and captured Government heavy
:06:30. > :06:33.weapons. For the past year, large quantities of modern weaponry,
:06:33. > :06:38.including anti-tank missiles, anti- aircraft missiles and even
:06:38. > :06:43.artillery have been sent to the opposition by its Saudi and Qatari
:06:43. > :06:49.backers. The shipments have been estimated at $3 billion worth. As
:06:49. > :06:53.the intensity of violence has gone up, so has the human cost. During
:06:53. > :06:59.its early months the Syrian uprising claimed fewer than 500
:06:59. > :07:08.lives per month. For the past year, it has been running at more than
:07:08. > :07:12.5,000 lives per month. Giving a total of 93,000 deaths by June.
:07:12. > :07:16.With that intensifying and expanding violence has come a tide
:07:16. > :07:21.of refugees. During the early months of conflict much of that was
:07:21. > :07:25.happening within the borders of Syria. But this year, the numbers
:07:25. > :07:31.forced abroad have shot up and are now estimated at 1.7 million.
:07:31. > :07:36.Lebanon is the biggest recipient, with 578,000, Jordan runs second,
:07:36. > :07:43.with nearly half a million. Those who fled, but remain within Syria
:07:43. > :07:47.could number as high as 4. 25 million people. No-one is talking
:07:47. > :07:52.about sending British soldiers into Syria. The argument is about other
:07:52. > :07:56.forms of intervention. What might be appropriate if indeed any form
:07:56. > :08:01.of interventions is appropriate. It boils down to this, should we arm
:08:01. > :08:04.the rebels fighting President Assad. Tony Blair, the man who took us
:08:04. > :08:08.into Iraq and Afghanistan thinks it is a moral and practical duty. It
:08:08. > :08:11.is a sign of how little trust even many Conservative MPs have in the
:08:11. > :08:14.current Prime Minister that they are having a debate on Thursday to
:08:14. > :08:18.try to require him to get the consent of parliament before any
:08:18. > :08:22.weapons are sent. If they are sent. We will hear both
:08:22. > :08:25.sides of the argument tonight, first the former Foreign Secretary,
:08:25. > :08:32.Malcolm Rifkind, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, on why we should get
:08:32. > :08:34.involved. You have 90 seconds. question of weather we give help to
:08:34. > :08:37.the moderate, secular Syrian opposition is one of the most
:08:37. > :08:41.difficult decisions we will be asked to reach. There are good
:08:41. > :08:45.arguments on both sides of the question. Like most people I began
:08:45. > :08:49.when this war began hoping it would be a civil war, that the outside
:08:49. > :08:53.world would not have to intervene. I was against the Iraq War, I don't
:08:53. > :08:57.normally support intervention in other people's countries. But as we
:08:57. > :09:03.have seen, intervention has already been happening over the last two
:09:03. > :09:06.years. Russian and Iranian arms have flown into help the Assad
:09:06. > :09:10.regime. Hezbollah troops are fighting with the Assad regime
:09:10. > :09:16.against the Syrian people. So it is against that background that we now
:09:17. > :09:20.have to address that question. And it is not, as you have heard, about
:09:20. > :09:25.sending an army into Syria, it is also not a question of whether
:09:25. > :09:31.Britain, by itself, takes action. We are part of an international
:09:31. > :09:35.community. There are already over 100 countries, more than half the
:09:35. > :09:40.United Nations, that have recognised the Syrian opposition as
:09:40. > :09:43.the legitimate voice of the Syrian people. That includes most of the
:09:43. > :09:47.countries of the Arab League. So it is whether the international
:09:47. > :09:52.community should intervene. I believe that it is both ethically
:09:52. > :09:56.justified as well as politically desirable. Basically two reasons.
:09:56. > :10:01.First of all, the humanitarian reason. Already over 100,000 men,
:10:01. > :10:06.women and children have been killed. Mostly because of a brutal
:10:06. > :10:11.onslaught by the add Assad regime - - the Assad regime against his
:10:11. > :10:15.people. The more the war continues, the more likely we are to see not
:10:15. > :10:19.100,000, but 200,000 a year from now. Even if Assad takes Homs that
:10:19. > :10:24.will still be a very long war. The second reason is the war will only
:10:24. > :10:28.come to an end when both sides recognise that there has to be a
:10:28. > :10:33.political solution, that no side can win entirely on military
:10:33. > :10:39.grounds. And that will only happen, it is my final point. That will
:10:39. > :10:42.only happen when Assad recognises that he has to agree to a new
:10:42. > :10:48.transitional Government. At the moment he has no incentive to make
:10:48. > :10:56.any such concession. Let's hear why we shouldn't get involved, in the
:10:56. > :10:59.case made by another Conservative MP, the floor is your's? The civil
:10:59. > :11:02.war is causing tremendous suffering. Atrocities are being committed by
:11:02. > :11:07.both sides, there are no easy answers. But I would caution
:11:07. > :11:11.against us getting more involved in Syria. If humanitarian concerns are
:11:11. > :11:15.uppermost in everyone's minds, then it is difficult to see how throwing
:11:15. > :11:20.more weapons into this conflict will not result in more violence
:11:20. > :11:25.and more suffering. This is why the UN Secretary-General has said more
:11:25. > :11:31.weapons, more arms would not be helpful. We need to remember that
:11:31. > :11:35.there are extremist elements to both sides of this conflict. On the
:11:35. > :11:40.rebel site there are links with Al- Qaeda. The Government has not been
:11:40. > :11:44.able to answer the charge how would it track and trace weapons to make
:11:44. > :11:48.sure that they didn't fall into the wrong hands on the web side. We
:11:48. > :11:55.must remember it is a fast-moving situation on the ground. We should
:11:55. > :11:58.also remember that we have a poor track record at arming groups. We
:11:58. > :12:02.armed the mujahideen in the 1980s and Saddam Hussein when he attacked
:12:02. > :12:05.Iran, eventually some of those weapons were used against us.
:12:05. > :12:10.Intervention would have wider implications. What we mustn't
:12:10. > :12:18.forget is Syria is a proxy war being fought at different levels.
:12:18. > :12:21.We have Sunni versus Shia, we have Saudi Arabia versus Iran, and China
:12:21. > :12:25.versus Russia. Throwing more weapons into that conflict and fuel
:12:25. > :12:29.on to the fire could extend the conflict beyond Syria's borders.
:12:29. > :12:34.That could be a mistake of historic proportions. What should the west
:12:34. > :12:39.do, we could do more on the humanitarian effort. Why are
:12:39. > :12:43.refugee camps still short of basic amenties, and we could do much more
:12:43. > :12:48.on diplomatic efforts, why is it that the west is presently
:12:48. > :12:52.excluding Iran from any future peace talks. Most people accept
:12:52. > :12:59.that at the end of the day we need a diplomatic solution to this. It
:12:59. > :13:06.is the only viable solution in the long-term.
:13:06. > :13:10.Mauricio Castillo, what do you make -- what do you make of the argument
:13:10. > :13:15.that you don't make peace by adding more weapons? More webs are going
:13:15. > :13:19.in already, -- weapons are going in, they are not just going in from the
:13:19. > :13:24.Iranians, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias and Russia, they are also
:13:24. > :13:27.going in as John mentioned to the extremist Salafist groups, they
:13:27. > :13:31.have their own supply of weapons. They have got weapons that were
:13:31. > :13:35.buried in Iraq that have come in. They have their own private donors
:13:35. > :13:38.in the gulf and the Saudis and the Qataris have been playing a game
:13:38. > :13:44.against each other, not really helping the opposition, and often
:13:44. > :13:48.arming the wrong people if you like. The Salafist groups. The only group
:13:48. > :13:54.not getting a consistent sustained source of weaponry is the Free
:13:54. > :13:57.Syrian Army under the leadership of Salim Idris, he's trying, and doing
:13:57. > :14:02.great work to organise and to become more relevent on the ground,
:14:02. > :14:04.to hold people, the local militias to human rights standards, if he
:14:04. > :14:09.was only more relevent on the ground, because he could give
:14:09. > :14:13.people weapons they needed then we could see a resolution to this
:14:13. > :14:16.reasonably quickly. We could start picking up the pieces. You think
:14:16. > :14:21.arming selected groups of rebels would actually make a resolution to
:14:21. > :14:27.this much quicker? I'm damaging my own argument. I agree it is
:14:27. > :14:32.impossible to make absolutely sure that other, that the extremist
:14:32. > :14:40.groups won't get, because militias will exchange weapons according to
:14:40. > :14:44.the battlefield. However, if you arm Mr Idris's arm, the moderates,
:14:44. > :14:47.the secularists, they will be able to tip the balance against
:14:47. > :14:53.extremists. You have also got family in Syria, what did you make
:14:53. > :14:57.of Malcolm Rifkind's argument? a human rights lawyer. I will never
:14:57. > :15:02.be pro-arming anybody, arms kill people. But when this is the choice
:15:02. > :15:06.against doing nothing, continuing to do nothing, nothing tangible
:15:06. > :15:10.that is making a difference on the ground. While an entire population
:15:10. > :15:16.is being slaughtered. While diplomatic channels have been
:15:16. > :15:21.exhausted, observous low, and nobody happening, the regime --
:15:21. > :15:25.obviously, nothing is happening and the ray genome has no intention of
:15:25. > :15:31.negotiating or doing anything. They are still using det fact toe
:15:31. > :15:36.immunity they are get -- de facto immunity that they are getting from
:15:36. > :15:39.the international community that nothing will happen. I think the
:15:39. > :15:46.pacifist tendencies are turning to support the dictator. You have run
:15:46. > :15:49.out of patience? It is not about patience, it is about an entire
:15:49. > :15:58.international community watching a population slaughtered. You have
:15:58. > :16:03.been covering the Syria war, since it is in dangerous and difficult
:16:03. > :16:06.situations, what will the consequences be to supplying arms
:16:06. > :16:12.to groups? Without arms you will have established in Assad's mind
:16:12. > :16:16.that he can win the war, arms are leverage. I don't think he can for
:16:16. > :16:21.all sorts of demographic reasons. Unless he really believes that the
:16:21. > :16:25.chance of military victory as alluded him, he will never go to
:16:25. > :16:29.the negotiating table. The only way you can tip that balance and get
:16:29. > :16:33.him to believe that is by arming the rebels. I believe it is a bad
:16:33. > :16:37.option, but it is the best of the bad options, and if you want a
:16:37. > :16:41.negotiated settlement, which we all agree, anyone with any sense will
:16:41. > :16:45.agree is the solution, you will only get that by arming the rebels.
:16:45. > :16:49.There is three people, direct experience, all of them making a
:16:49. > :16:52.different argument to your argument? Having said that, there
:16:52. > :16:56.was an admission that it would be impossible to track and trace these
:16:56. > :17:01.weapons, for a start. Weapons are an asset to be traded in the area.
:17:01. > :17:06.Very little, this is part of the world where very little escapes the
:17:06. > :17:10.bazzar. You would have the weapons moving around the battlefield that
:17:10. > :17:14.is very fluid. Who knows who would end up with them. Can I pick up the
:17:14. > :17:18.point about diplomatic channel, I would suggest they have not
:17:18. > :17:26.exhausted. When you have on the west an approach which says we're
:17:26. > :17:29.not going to allow 0 Iran, a key regional player and a key player
:17:29. > :17:33.within Syria, whatever we think of the country we won't allow them at
:17:33. > :17:38.the forth coming talks when they eventually take place. That doesn't
:17:38. > :17:44.send the signal that we have exhausted all diplomatic efforts.
:17:44. > :17:47.Hang on, I think Malcolm Rifkind was anxious to jump in before you?
:17:47. > :17:52.Jump! It is a particular way about the level of risk we accept that
:17:52. > :17:55.the weapons will end up in the wrong hand. You can't give 100%
:17:55. > :17:59.guarantees, think logically, the only people without weapons at the
:17:59. > :18:03.moment are the Free Syrian Army. The Jihadis already have them,
:18:03. > :18:06.Assad already has them, why should the Free Syrian Army, if it at long
:18:06. > :18:10.last gets weapons, why should it wish to hand them over to people
:18:10. > :18:14.who have already got them and who are their own sworn enemies in
:18:14. > :18:17.terms of the long-term future of Syria. Your turn to jump?Jumping
:18:17. > :18:20.on the diplomatic point, the reason we don't have a diplomatic solution
:18:20. > :18:25.is not because Iran isn't at the negotiating table of the the reason
:18:25. > :18:30.we don't have a diplomatic solution is because the rebels are not
:18:30. > :18:35.prepared to accept a situation where Assad stays in power and the
:18:35. > :18:38.Russians are not prepared to propose something in which Assad he
:18:38. > :18:41.was power. It is not an Iran problem. We have a fundamental
:18:41. > :18:46.problem. This whole discussion we have had, we could have had a
:18:46. > :18:50.flashback to Bosnia. A country in which the people were denied the
:18:50. > :18:53.ability to defend themselves against a brutal dictator, where
:18:53. > :18:58.the international community, including the United States,
:18:58. > :19:02.particularly Britain, Malcolm you may not agree with this, were
:19:02. > :19:07.complicit in denying the Bosnian Muslims the ability to defend
:19:07. > :19:11.themselves. And until there was an equalisation on the battlefield by
:19:11. > :19:15.the Croatian victory, the use of air power, there was no negotiated
:19:15. > :19:18.solution. If we go on down the path we are on we will be having this
:19:18. > :19:21.programme a year from now, two years from now and three years from
:19:21. > :19:25.now. You make a comparison with Bosnia, with one of the commanders
:19:25. > :19:29.who was in Bosnia, they are here, what do you make of the argument of
:19:29. > :19:35.arming the rebels? There is a parallel with Bosnia and the fact
:19:35. > :19:40.that for three years the Bosnian war dragged on and on with
:19:41. > :19:47.increasing violence and obskenity is something which I think rest --
:19:47. > :19:54.obscenity is something which rests in people's consciences, let alone
:19:54. > :20:01.memories. It was exemplfied by the massacre in veb nieceia. It was
:20:01. > :20:05.only -- Srebrenica, it was only then we were sable to turn the
:20:05. > :20:11.situation around. Bosnia is not Syria, you have to judge them both
:20:11. > :20:16.on mr its, not for the first time it is damned in you do and damned
:20:16. > :20:20.in you don't. But if the assumption is there can be no settlement or
:20:20. > :20:30.future for Syria, whilst Assad is still in power, then that pushes
:20:30. > :20:30.
:20:30. > :20:36.you in the direction to take some risk. I accept giving weapons to
:20:36. > :20:41.the "rebels, which rebels and how do you gauorn -- "rebels", which
:20:41. > :20:44.rebels and how do you guarantee they won't do other things with the
:20:44. > :20:48.weapons. One aspect which is less emotive than weapons and where they
:20:48. > :20:54.might finish up is training the right people. We can perhaps do
:20:54. > :20:56.something there. But you wouldn't arm them? That, as I say, is a very
:20:56. > :21:02.difficult decision Jeremy. It is a difficult decision, I'm asking you
:21:02. > :21:08.to make it? I'm not a politician. You can have an opinion? You are a
:21:08. > :21:14.very experienced fella. If you pushed me into the corner, yes, I
:21:14. > :21:18.would look to arming the Free Syrian Army. What measures you can
:21:18. > :21:22.put in place to avoid those weapons going elsewhere is a much more
:21:22. > :21:25.difficult question. It is almost impossible isn't it? It is.Would
:21:26. > :21:30.that be legal? Not under international law would it be
:21:30. > :21:33.lawful to arm the rebels. Arming the rebels would be equivalent to
:21:34. > :21:38.using force in Syria. It would be no different to going into Syria,
:21:38. > :21:42.as a matter of law, it would be no difference than going into Syria
:21:42. > :21:45.with our own troops, it would be indirect use of force. That is
:21:45. > :21:49.prohibited by the United Nations charter. Have you told that to the
:21:49. > :21:52.Russians, have you told it to the Saudis, to the Iranians? There is a
:21:52. > :21:57.difference with the Russians, because this is what the Russians
:21:57. > :22:03.say, that they are arming the Government. The west is proposing
:22:03. > :22:10.to arm the rebels. The Saudis and the Qataris are arming the rebels
:22:10. > :22:14.and on General Mike Jackson's point, training is going on at the moment.
:22:14. > :22:19.Does this legality point worry you? While we had a European arms
:22:19. > :22:23.embargo, or if there was a United Nations arms embargo, that would
:22:23. > :22:27.clearly make it improper to provide arms. But the idea that because
:22:27. > :22:34.Assad, according to the Russians, is still the Government of Syria,
:22:34. > :22:38.that may be the Russian's view, but I made the point earlier, over 100
:22:38. > :22:43.countries have said they recognise the Syrian opposition as the Syrian
:22:43. > :22:48.poxmen for the people. Even the Arab -- spokesman for the people.
:22:48. > :22:53.Even the Arab League has expelled Assad and invited the Free Syrian
:22:53. > :22:57.Army to take the seat. Even the UK doesn't recognise the rebels as the
:22:57. > :23:01.Government, they recognise them as legitimate representives of the
:23:01. > :23:04.people. That is not the same and the UK and US accept that. That is
:23:04. > :23:08.not the same as being the Government. We make a mockery of
:23:08. > :23:12.legal distinctions if we say it is OK for the Russians and the
:23:12. > :23:15.Iranians to pour in arms and Hezbollah to fight with the Syrian
:23:15. > :23:19.Assad regime, but to give help to the secular democratic forces
:23:19. > :23:29.trying to reform the country, we can't possibly do that because of
:23:29. > :23:33.
:23:33. > :23:36.some curious legal interpretation. It wouldn't be able to be tried?
:23:36. > :23:39.is not impossible but it wouldn't happen to take a case against the
:23:39. > :23:43.UK. What could happen, and this goes to the point of where the arms
:23:43. > :23:47.might go, is the UK, the US or any other country would bear
:23:47. > :23:53.responsibility, or could bear responsibility for what happened to
:23:53. > :23:58.those arms and the ways in which they are used, in effect, we would
:23:58. > :24:02.be responsible for what happened. There is a school of thought saying
:24:02. > :24:05.it is too late already? Intervention might have been more
:24:05. > :24:09.effective earlier on before the situation became so radicalised. It
:24:09. > :24:12.is a great pity that Assad didn't seem from the beginning to have any
:24:13. > :24:17.fear of intervention. Commander at NATO and so on said very clearly
:24:17. > :24:21.from the outset that they had had no desire to intervene. He has
:24:21. > :24:26.clearly been acting and testing the boundaries, he started off with
:24:26. > :24:30.lower levels of killing and as it became evident that direct
:24:30. > :24:34.intervention wasn't coming he has escalate and even to the point of
:24:34. > :24:37.inviting fighters from overseas which is a game-changer and crosses
:24:37. > :24:40.new boundaries. You have been there and you have heard what Mike
:24:40. > :24:44.Jackson has to say possibly about the wisdom of training forces. You
:24:44. > :24:48.have seen training going on haven't you? I haven't seen the training
:24:48. > :24:53.conducted by the Americans, in which the FSA have just asked the
:24:53. > :24:56.British to do in Jordan. They have asked British Special Forces to
:24:56. > :25:00.train rebel Special Forces. There is a lot of training going on in
:25:00. > :25:04.the north among the rebels. On the argument of tracking and tracing
:25:04. > :25:09.weapons, we should get out of the mid-80s of the track and trace
:25:09. > :25:13.argument, we gave the wrong groups, the mujahideen the wrong weapons
:25:13. > :25:17.and look what happened with blowback. In this era now you can
:25:17. > :25:24.track and trace, not with 100% accuracy, but with a far greater
:25:24. > :25:26.degree of accuracy. You can enable and disable remotely shoulder-
:25:26. > :25:35.launched anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as tracking them.
:25:35. > :25:38.Of course there will be some leakage. But it is a world, small
:25:38. > :25:44.arms aren't the big sensitivity, it is an Israeli aircraft being shot
:25:45. > :25:47.down by a rebel, or one of our's or a terrorist group using anti-
:25:47. > :25:52.aircraft missiles. Anti-aircraft missiles are the big problem. They
:25:52. > :25:57.can be much more tightly controlled than they could have been 30 years
:25:57. > :26:02.ago. If these very, rather bigger weapons are traceable, what is the
:26:02. > :26:05.problem? Because I think even those who argue it is traceable cannot
:26:05. > :26:09.offer 100% guarantee. You simply can't. You throw these weapons into
:26:09. > :26:13.a conflict. It is fast-moving on the ground. The weapons themselves
:26:13. > :26:17.would become assets that could be traded. You know, as I said,
:26:17. > :26:20.nothing escapes the bizarre at the end of the day. We don't know where
:26:20. > :26:25.they would -- bazzar at the end of the day. We don't know where they
:26:25. > :26:29.would end up with the best of intentions. Are we living in the
:26:29. > :26:32.21st century or the 19th century. The biggest mistake is fighting
:26:32. > :26:36.today's war learning the wrong lessons from yesterday's war. While
:26:36. > :26:41.we learn from the Balkans and Sierra Leone and all those
:26:41. > :26:45.particular places, today's wars are not won on the battlefield. They
:26:45. > :26:49.are taking place digitally, they are taking place in the hearts and
:26:49. > :26:52.mind of the people and refugees, on many, many fronts. Sure you can get
:26:52. > :26:56.a temporary military ascendancy on the ground, but this will not bring
:26:56. > :27:01.the war to an end. The idea that by having the balance of a conflict on
:27:01. > :27:04.the ground you can force these people to the negotiating table is
:27:04. > :27:09.rubbish. It might have been true in the last century, but the way the
:27:09. > :27:13.mood is in the Middle East and the gulf and around the world is isn't
:27:13. > :27:18.like that. Let's explore some options, arming the rebels isn't
:27:18. > :27:22.the only thing on the table for those who believe saving minds in
:27:22. > :27:30.Syria demand we get involved. Here is a reminder of what they might be.
:27:30. > :27:36.The first, favoured by Tony Blair, John McCain and others is it a no-
:27:36. > :27:40.fly zone. This could see coalition forces in Turkey or Jordan used to
:27:40. > :27:45.stop Syrian air power from operating in specific areas. Those
:27:45. > :27:49.areas could form safe zones for the rebel forces or allow international
:27:49. > :27:53.groups to set up humanitarian corridors for aid deliveries.
:27:53. > :27:57.Ultimately you could extend no-fly to the whole country. The second
:27:57. > :28:01.option could be strategic air strikes, which would involve
:28:02. > :28:05.bombing key ray genome command centres and air defences to skilt -
:28:05. > :28:08.- regime command centres and air defences to tilt the balance of the
:28:08. > :28:13.conflict away from Government forces and give an advantage on the
:28:13. > :28:17.ground. The biggest headache for western and regional loaders would
:28:17. > :28:24.be securing Syria's chemical weapons stockpile if that had to
:28:24. > :28:28.happen. Experts are far from convinced it could happen at all,
:28:28. > :28:32.if it were to be attempted forces from several nations could be deed
:28:32. > :28:36.employed. This is a nightmare scenario. The striking thing is how
:28:36. > :28:44.reluctant the Pentagon top brass, or that in Whitehall, are to mount
:28:44. > :28:48.any of these operations. Eddie Izzard, you are just back as
:28:48. > :28:54.a UNICEF ambassador from some of the refugee camps. How urgent is
:28:54. > :28:57.the need for had you tantarian intervention? I think it is very --
:28:57. > :29:00.humanitarian intervention? I think it is very urgent. The arguments
:29:00. > :29:03.and discussion here it is a really difficult question to get this
:29:03. > :29:08.sorted. There are kids who have just lost homes and schooling, lost
:29:08. > :29:14.their lives and loved ones as well, coming up to 100,000 people who
:29:14. > :29:18.have died now. I was up in the north of Iraq and the refugee camp.
:29:18. > :29:23.The temperatures are mid-40s, all day it is 40 degrees, that is a
:29:23. > :29:27.hellish temperature to live in. The kids are having lost their lives,
:29:27. > :29:32.we need another �200 million, that is what UNICEF need. I'm
:29:32. > :29:37.encouraging people to go to the website and dedoate if they can.
:29:37. > :29:41.This other question -- donate if they can. The other questions rage,
:29:41. > :29:47.but the humanitarian situation, people going over different borders.
:29:47. > :29:53.Describe to us the feeling in the camps about what the rest of the
:29:54. > :29:56.world might do? They, I think on the ground they want them to arm
:29:56. > :30:02.the rebels. That's my interpretation of the feeling. A
:30:02. > :30:06.lot of these people have come out and they want, and it wasn't the
:30:06. > :30:13.more religious parts, and it is my interpretation of it, not a UNICEF
:30:13. > :30:17.position on it. I felt they said can we give help to these people to
:30:17. > :30:21.again arm them against the Assad regime. That is my feeling and they
:30:21. > :30:26.weren't saying it specifically, that is how I felt. Malloch Brown,
:30:26. > :30:35.you were nodding? I think it is a dilemma that ultimately we will
:30:35. > :30:40.have to arm the webs rebels, it is literally a -- the rebels. It is
:30:40. > :30:45.literally defending those who are refugees. In arriving in a solution
:30:45. > :30:48.in the negotiating peace settlement we have all talked about, more arms
:30:48. > :30:53.is counter-productive. You can't get away from that. Do you favour
:30:53. > :30:58.any other ideas of interveings? me say what is happening next door
:30:58. > :31:03.in Egypt is an important reminder that whether it is Syria, Egypt or
:31:03. > :31:08.any other country in the region, only a Government that represents a
:31:08. > :31:13.broad group of minorities and religions and ethnic groups can
:31:13. > :31:21.possibly govern in a way that enjoys broad consent and is able to
:31:21. > :31:26.establish an inclusive human rights environment. You will never get
:31:26. > :31:29.there through the barrel of the gun. It becomes less and less possible
:31:29. > :31:33.every day Assad stays in power. For two-and-a-half years we have said
:31:33. > :31:37.if we get involved and help the vast majority of the Syrian people
:31:37. > :31:41.and give them what they are asking for and help finish the thing
:31:41. > :31:49.itself it will get wore. Over a quarter of Syrians are refugees
:31:49. > :31:57.outside or dismazeed inside. The sectarian -- dis dispersed inside.
:31:57. > :32:00.The sectarian threat of Assad is happening. Lebanon is fatally
:32:00. > :32:05.destablised, Turkey is suffering knock-on effects. There are
:32:05. > :32:09.killings of Shia going on in Egypt as a result of the Syria situation.
:32:09. > :32:12.Spreading and becoming bigger and bigger and bigger because nobody is
:32:12. > :32:17.going in and giving weapons to the people on the ground who are asking
:32:17. > :32:21.for that. The vast majority of the people who could finish the things
:32:21. > :32:24.themselves. There is no happy ending now, it is far too late. We
:32:24. > :32:30.could begin to pick up the pieces and get people to their villages
:32:30. > :32:34.and reopen schools and hospitals. Can we explore more the other
:32:34. > :32:40.intervention possibilities, you have seen genocide in places like
:32:40. > :32:42.Darfur and Rwanda. People think back to the war in which Saddam
:32:42. > :32:46.Hussein turned his guns on the Kurds. The international commune
:32:46. > :32:50.toe said for a long time they can't do anything about this. Then they
:32:50. > :32:57.imposed a no-fly zone. Is anything like that justifyable in these
:32:57. > :33:01.sorts of circumstances? Yes, I think from menu we were presented
:33:01. > :33:07.by Mark Urban, the no-fly zone and being more imaginative in the
:33:07. > :33:11.provision of humanitarian aid, certainly it is on the cards. You
:33:11. > :33:15.know from your experienced many years a I worked with Sir Mike
:33:15. > :33:19.Jackson in the Balkans, we haven't even start doing humanitarian aid
:33:19. > :33:27.properly. The debate is so occupied by military intervention it sucks
:33:27. > :33:32.the oxygen out of political efforts and completely undermines the had
:33:32. > :33:39.you machinetarian effort. Can we arm the rebels and shove for
:33:39. > :33:46.weapons, at the same time saying here is food and neutral
:33:46. > :33:53.humanitarian assistance, it is an oxymore ran. Is the no-fly --
:33:53. > :33:58.Objection see more ran. Is the -- Is the no-fly zone
:33:58. > :34:01.something that could happen? don't think so. Obama is very
:34:01. > :34:05.quiet? There is a pattern following the last war, President Obama and
:34:05. > :34:09.the American people were traumatised by Iraq, by the
:34:09. > :34:13.failures, the mistakes and all the things said by many people on
:34:13. > :34:18.programmes like this, how horrible Iraq was. Has caused, in my opinion,
:34:18. > :34:23.an overreaction the they are looking at Syria through the eyes
:34:23. > :34:29.of the mistakes in Iraq. If the United States were responding as
:34:29. > :34:35.the United States did in the 1990, the United Nations has called this
:34:35. > :34:38.the worst humanitarian crisis in the history in terms of refugees.
:34:38. > :34:43.We forget. There there is no response in the west and the United
:34:43. > :34:47.States because Iraq has traumatised the west. If there were a no-fly
:34:47. > :34:50.zone in the beginning, if there was a real decision toen gauge in the
:34:50. > :34:54.beginning, I don't think we would have reached this point. We will be
:34:54. > :34:58.here the same point a year from now and two years from now unless we do
:34:58. > :35:02.something. We have heard you say why you don't believe in arming the
:35:02. > :35:09.rebels. What would be wrong with establishing a humanitarian
:35:09. > :35:13.corridor which British and other military forces assisted with?
:35:13. > :35:17.Acertain low think and agree with the gentleman previously that we
:35:17. > :35:22.need more on the humanitarian front. Eddie has been back from refugee
:35:22. > :35:28.camps and they are desoperately short of basic amenties, we talk
:35:28. > :35:32.about throwing arms in, why not turn the money into humanitarian
:35:32. > :35:36.relief. What about protecting people? For a no-fly zone you need
:35:36. > :35:39.a UN resolution for that. When you have Russians and Chinese at the
:35:39. > :35:46.table it will be hard to deliver in the air. What about trying? Of the
:35:46. > :35:50.you can try, but at the end of the day I'm' not convinced that more
:35:50. > :35:53.weaponry, more force, more intervention is the answer here. I
:35:53. > :35:57.think the vast majority of the people accept you need at the end
:35:57. > :36:02.of the day a diplomatic solution. Trying force some sort of stalemate
:36:02. > :36:07.on the grouped is very high risk and can only add to the violence.
:36:07. > :36:13.You are desperate to get in. there is one thing to learn from
:36:13. > :36:16.the Bosnian expeer kwhrns is don't call something a safe -- experience,
:36:16. > :36:21.is don't call something a safe haven unless you have the military
:36:21. > :36:26.support to back it up. It is complimentry, the logic of much of
:36:26. > :36:36.this discussion has been that firstly, Assad will not of himself
:36:36. > :36:38.
:36:38. > :36:42.go for some form of settlement. He would see that as defoot. Unless he
:36:42. > :36:47.-- defeat. Unless he is himself defeated we are at an impasse. That
:36:47. > :36:57.takes you to doing more to assist the rebels. That seems to me to
:36:57. > :37:01.
:37:01. > :37:07.flow through the whole of this debate. The logic would be logic if
:37:07. > :37:10.the rebels were a party with a coherent political agenda that
:37:10. > :37:17.enjoyed the support of the population, not just on the rebel
:37:17. > :37:22.side but elsewhere. And who had the leadership and the skills and all
:37:22. > :37:28.sorts of things. Some of the rebels committing as many atrocities and
:37:28. > :37:33.then an army as much as the Government would be terrible.
:37:33. > :37:42.is like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Israel are a modern
:37:42. > :37:46.invention, carved out of the ruin of the otterman empire. The war has
:37:46. > :37:50.implications beyond Syria. Already Lebanon has sent fighters there,
:37:50. > :37:55.and all neighbouring states shelter refugees. Britain promised �50
:37:55. > :37:59.million to Lebanon to help the country cope with the refugee
:38:00. > :38:03.inflation. A country half the size of Wales is expected to be
:38:03. > :38:08.sheltering over a million Syrians by the end of the year. As we have
:38:08. > :38:15.been discussing the shockwaves from Syria's civil war are being felt
:38:15. > :38:18.all across the region. The sectarian dynamics resonate in
:38:19. > :38:22.Lebanon after clashes between the communities. Hezbollah is based
:38:22. > :38:26.this, and has sent thousands of fighters to support the Assad
:38:27. > :38:32.regime. The rebel Lebanese Sunnis have been sending people across as
:38:32. > :38:37.well into the Syrian national army. Not surprisingly the tensions have
:38:37. > :38:43.triggered fighting inside Lebanon too. Tonight's car bomb, for
:38:43. > :38:47.example, religious tensions in Iraq are also being exacerbated.
:38:47. > :38:54.Sectarian violence is increasing with fighters and equipment moving
:38:54. > :38:57.across the porous border. Iran a critically important ally in the
:38:57. > :39:00.region for President Assad, they have supplied military advisers and
:39:00. > :39:03.there is evidence of Iranian- supplied weapons on the ground too.
:39:03. > :39:08.Then there is Turkey, of course, hundreds of thousands of Syrian
:39:08. > :39:13.refugees have gone there, and the Syrian conflict has heightened
:39:13. > :39:17.tensions amongst Kurds and Alawites within Turkey. The Prime Minister's
:39:17. > :39:27.support for President Assad's energise has been cited by many as
:39:27. > :39:27.
:39:27. > :39:33.one reason for the recent protests against him. How po tensionly does
:39:33. > :39:37.it -- potentially does it destablise the whole region? It is
:39:37. > :39:42.increasingly destablising, Iraq we should be most worried about. We
:39:42. > :39:46.saw the death toll go over 1,000 in May, technically described as a
:39:46. > :39:51.civil war. Britain could do more to help protect Iraq and help Iraq
:39:51. > :39:57.protect its own borders. But for the reasons mentioned, Iraq still a
:39:57. > :40:00.toxic word in American and British milt kal discourse, it needs more
:40:00. > :40:05.attention -- political discourse. It need more attention. It begs the
:40:05. > :40:10.question of why is this our job? is about what will happen if we
:40:10. > :40:12.don't do anything about it. Assad will take Homs in the next few days
:40:12. > :40:18.and Aleppo. What he cannot do because he doesn't have the
:40:18. > :40:22.military might to do is reoccupy the whole of Syria. He needs
:40:22. > :40:27.Hezbollah and that shows how weak he is by himself. That will lead to
:40:27. > :40:31.empty zones of Syria where the Jihadis will nourish. They will
:40:31. > :40:34.flourish on both sides of the border of Syria and Iraq. That side
:40:34. > :40:39.of Iraq is also dangerous territory. If you think of the problems we
:40:39. > :40:43.have had in Yemen, Somalia, Male. We will see the creation of a
:40:43. > :40:47.similar problem right in the heart of Syria. Is this Britain's
:40:47. > :40:50.business? I don't think it is directly Britain's business, but it
:40:50. > :40:54.is Britain's as part of the international communities business.
:40:54. > :41:00.This is something that could blow up a whole region of vital
:41:00. > :41:05.strategic importance to us all. Draw us into massive humanitarian
:41:05. > :41:09.organisations. There are real CoS and we are right to be engaged W we
:41:09. > :41:13.have to come back to the score prop possession -- we have to come back
:41:13. > :41:18.to the core proposition here, how to get Syrians to live side-by-side
:41:18. > :41:23.together again. As we look at what has happened in the region, the
:41:23. > :41:27.focus of humanitarian and political processes, humanitarian, against
:41:27. > :41:31.political is the only way out of here. I was there in Bosnia too, it
:41:31. > :41:36.is a ghost in Raul of our lives, the solution to Bosnia is something
:41:36. > :41:45.we can't have this time around, American military no-fly and
:41:45. > :41:53.intervention. Plus, ultimately a willingness of communities to come
:41:53. > :42:00.together for a egg no, to get a peace agreement between communities.
:42:00. > :42:03.It any of our business? I share the view if you, if it is directly for
:42:03. > :42:08.the UK to unilateral low take action for whatever reason. No, we
:42:08. > :42:15.are not going to be able to do whatever may be decided as the
:42:16. > :42:18.single nation, far from it. We are part of the international community
:42:19. > :42:23.and we are a permanent member of the Security Council. We are
:42:23. > :42:27.assuming in all of this it is a collective effort? We can't
:42:27. > :42:37.disentangible ourselves and say it is nothing to do with us.
:42:37. > :42:46.
:42:46. > :42:54.Circumstances are self-he have tent. What is it like there? There is
:42:54. > :42:58.help lose, and Sharia Law has been set up because of necessity rather
:42:58. > :43:05.than desire. People need aid, a big British aid package was announced
:43:05. > :43:09.and that is good, more needs to be done. We need managive ways to
:43:09. > :43:12.bring hope. -- imaginative ways to bring hope. When you do a
:43:13. > :43:19.competitive army, tomorrow it will be middle range missiles, will one
:43:19. > :43:22.side be sitting there waiting. point you miss is all these things,
:43:22. > :43:28.thermomissiles, air strikes, chemical weapons, are being used by
:43:28. > :43:38.the regime against the opposition. They are not both sides, against
:43:38. > :43:39.
:43:39. > :43:43.the people. Then do something for the people. It is said the
:43:43. > :43:48.atrocities are the same on the both sides, Human Rights Watch and other
:43:48. > :43:52.groups say the vast majority of atrocities and deaths are from the
:43:52. > :43:56.regime. WeThey have an organised and systematic plan of torturing
:43:56. > :44:02.people to death and raping people on a mass level. I'm' trying to get
:44:02. > :44:07.some answers. What business is this of our's? I can't obviously speak
:44:07. > :44:12.for the British but I speak as an American and member of NATO and the
:44:12. > :44:16.west. I used to think that we considered it our business when
:44:16. > :44:23.four million people have been driven from their homes in a part
:44:23. > :44:27.of the world that is supposed to be important to us. Those four million
:44:27. > :44:31.people from the messages get are getting more and more angry, they
:44:31. > :44:36.will be an grow refugees, and they become dangerous people. We can't
:44:36. > :44:41.fix this with the barrel of a gun. But we will be deluding ourselves
:44:41. > :44:46.if we think that we can solve this problem without the leader of
:44:46. > :44:50.Bashar Assad, the roder of Syria, facing -- leader of Syria facing
:44:50. > :44:54.pressure. We know that is the only thing to work. All you would point
:44:54. > :44:59.out is the one country not mentioned, likely to implode we
:44:59. > :45:02.should all agree on is Jordan. That is being overwhelmed by refugees.
:45:02. > :45:09.This is the kingdom that Britain, the United States, we all used to
:45:09. > :45:16.care about that place and we should, at a minimum, be willing to help
:45:16. > :45:20.defend Jordan before it goes under. You have a quick word before the
:45:20. > :45:23.summing up. Only guarantee against the extremists are the democratic
:45:23. > :45:28.and secular Syrians being targeted by everybody now. If you do not
:45:28. > :45:32.give those a chance everything that we are worried about will only
:45:32. > :45:35.exacerbate. Do you think it is our business? I do, through the
:45:35. > :45:39.international community. We have to be heading towards a one world
:45:39. > :45:42.where we do have freedom for everyone. No-one ever thinks of
:45:42. > :45:50.this because it is too big a weight to think. We have to head in that
:45:50. > :45:56.direction, and every time we don't, when people lose hope it fuels them
:45:56. > :46:00.turning towards something more aggressive and terrorism for the
:46:00. > :46:04.future. The humanitarian situation is very rough we have a lost
:46:04. > :46:10.generation. Let's hear a final summing up from protagonists, I
:46:10. > :46:14.don't suppose either of you has changed your mind, I hope you are
:46:14. > :46:18.enlightened by what you have heard. Give us your final pitch? I think
:46:18. > :46:23.it is our business, but in this sense, we could do a lot more from
:46:23. > :46:27.a humanitarian point of view, a lot more. That has been brought out in
:46:27. > :46:30.the discussion. We could do a lot more diplomatically, I cited Iran
:46:30. > :46:34.of what we are doing wrong, there is more to push down the political
:46:34. > :46:40.solution, that is what it has to come down toe at the end of the day.
:46:40. > :46:42.We have to learn from history on this. There is a deficit of trust
:46:42. > :46:48.with regards to western interventions general loo. We went
:46:48. > :46:53.to war on a false premise to Iraq. When we were told the mission in
:46:53. > :46:57.Afghanistan would go from defeating Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. We were
:46:57. > :47:01.told we would be in and out without firing a shot. Western
:47:01. > :47:06.interventions have had a habit of having an embeding effect on
:47:06. > :47:11.regimes. That is why communism has survived longest in those countries
:47:11. > :47:16.where the west intervened. Whether it North Korea, Cuba or China.
:47:16. > :47:22.can all agree it should be more diplomatic and humanitarian effort,
:47:22. > :47:26.we can't show it the serious questions. Assad's tactic has been
:47:26. > :47:30.to try to force the world or his own people to recognise the Jihadi
:47:30. > :47:34.terrorists. We wants to exclude the secular, moderate forces, who
:47:34. > :47:40.actually have more support in Syria than anybody else. If there is
:47:40. > :47:46.going to be a negotiated settlement, which we are all agreed, it can
:47:46. > :47:50.only happen if Assad fols and recognises that he must go and
:47:50. > :47:54.negotiate and recognise that he can't win by military ens moo.
:47:54. > :47:59.Until the moderate forces are given the weapons they need to defend
:47:59. > :48:06.their own communities and to put pressure on Assad, the killing will
:48:06. > :48:10.continue, not just of fighters but men, women and children.
:48:10. > :48:12.That is all, tomorrow night we have a special report on how one of the
:48:13. > :48:22.most powerful and feared political organisations in Pakistan is run
:48:23. > :48:24.
:48:24. > :48:34.from a suburb of London. Until then from a suburb of London. Until then
:48:34. > :48:57.
:48:57. > :49:00.good night. A cloudy day and thicker cloud to the north-east,
:49:00. > :49:04.bright spells for the afternoon. The best of sunshine further south
:49:04. > :49:07.and west. Another hot and sunny day for part of Northern Ireland.
:49:07. > :49:13.South-west of Scotland still enjoying temperatures into the mid-
:49:13. > :49:18.20s, further north and east with some mist and low cloud, 14 degrees
:49:18. > :49:22.in Aberdeen. A much cooler day across the east coast of England.
:49:22. > :49:26.Moving further inland temperatures in the low 20s. A pleasant
:49:26. > :49:30.afternoon, breezy to the south-east corner but sunny spells in the
:49:30. > :49:34.afternoon. More cloud than we are used to, the best of the sunshine
:49:34. > :49:39.for south-west England, here our highest temperatures, we have the
:49:39. > :49:43.potential to reach 28/29 degrees somewhere. With the heat and a
:49:43. > :49:46.singering weather front it could give us enough moisture to trigger
:49:46. > :49:49.a few sharp showers across part of Wales for the afternoon. Wednesday
:49:49. > :49:53.and Thursday sees the high pressure building back in for the end of the
:49:53. > :49:59.week. So we will start to lose the cloud with brighter spells
:49:59. > :50:02.developing, temperatures recovery as well. In fact, overall 3.30,