:00:15. > :00:18.diplomats have pulled out of Yemen and western visitors are told to
:00:18. > :00:27.leave immediately. Embassies across the Middle East are shut, but can
:00:27. > :00:32.the threat from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula be contained?
:00:32. > :00:36.Americans America's special operations forces are being readied,
:00:36. > :00:41.it looks like escalation. What about the people who can't
:00:41. > :00:51.leave? We follow the Yemeni villagers living and dying with the
:00:51. > :00:53.
:00:53. > :01:00.daily reality of American drone strikes.
:01:00. > :01:03.Here doctors and nurses should aim for zero-harm to patients. Or be
:01:03. > :01:09.prosecuted for willful misconduct, but no finger pointing when things
:01:09. > :01:15.go wrong. We will hear from the man who wrote today's NHS report for
:01:15. > :01:18.David Cameron. And it lives! The British economy
:01:19. > :01:24.has started twitching again, but behind the new numbers, is this
:01:24. > :01:34.really what you would want to call a recovery? Is the resurrection for
:01:34. > :01:36.
:01:36. > :01:40.real? Is there a risk of driving a stake through its heart.
:01:40. > :01:44.Good evening, the exodus of westerners from Yemen continued
:01:44. > :01:47.today amid on going fears over the terror threat in the country.
:01:48. > :01:53.British diplomatic staff are already on route to the UK. It
:01:53. > :01:56.comes after the New York Times reported that American Security
:01:56. > :02:00.Services intercepted phone conversations between two senior
:02:00. > :02:05.members of Al-Qaeda. Rp presenting, the paper says, the most serious
:02:05. > :02:09.plot since 9/11. Our diplomatic editor is here with
:02:09. > :02:12.more. What can you tell us? I understand they are now looking
:02:12. > :02:17.at sending special operations forces into Yemen. These sorts of
:02:17. > :02:21.people have been in and out of there in recent years as training
:02:21. > :02:24.team members or in liaison roles in relation to some of those drone
:02:24. > :02:28.strikes. But the sort of option that is now being looked at is the
:02:28. > :02:31.sort of option that would give them a strike option against the Al-
:02:32. > :02:37.Qaeda leadership, able to mount the kind of operations we have seen in
:02:37. > :02:42.Iraq and Afghanistan in recent years. What is the threat? It is
:02:42. > :02:46.interesting, there seems to have been a whole tiered bit of
:02:46. > :02:50.intelligence reporting from across the region, tiered levels, if you
:02:50. > :02:55.like, of different types of intelligence coming in, being
:02:55. > :02:58.assessed in different place. We know that the Americans across the
:02:58. > :03:06.region have basically shut up shop with embassies in 19 countries.
:03:06. > :03:15.Right the way from Tripoli over on the west of that map in Libya to
:03:16. > :03:19.Muscat in the east, Sana'a, Kay row, ma -- Cairo, major stations. It
:03:19. > :03:24.comes from chatter, Ramadan at the end, and Muslim countries may want
:03:24. > :03:30.to do actual attacks and protests on American interests. There is the
:03:30. > :03:34.much more specific stuff about Aden and Sana'a, we know from the New
:03:34. > :03:44.York Times report that they intercepted conversations between
:03:44. > :03:45.
:03:45. > :03:52.Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, and Tony Way, the
:03:52. > :03:56.competent atrb and the competent affiliate of Al-Qaeda. It would be
:03:56. > :03:58.range to say you were listening to the phone calls if that was the
:03:59. > :04:01.method you were using. Others say it was electronic communication, a
:04:01. > :04:08.little vague there. There is another level of intelligence
:04:08. > :04:11.reporting down at the ground level in Sana'a, we know for example from
:04:11. > :04:15.the Yemeni Interior Ministry that they have tracked Al-Qaeda
:04:15. > :04:21.militants coming into Sana'a ready to mount attacks on western
:04:21. > :04:25.interests there. Also things hotting up in the country with a
:04:25. > :04:33.further drone strike north of the apple in the Marib province, said
:04:33. > :04:37.to have killed four people, including two on the Yemeni 25 most
:04:37. > :04:43.wanted list. Also there has been US manned aircraft over the country.
:04:43. > :04:47.Is the UK's assessment of the risk the same as the US? It seems less
:04:47. > :04:51.stark. People in Whitehall argue that the Americans may be taking no
:04:51. > :04:55.chances because of what happened in September when they lost an
:04:55. > :04:58.ambassador. The UK's view is not to get involved with the drone strikes
:04:59. > :05:05.and with the direct action-type forces.
:05:05. > :05:11.Let as talk now to Conservative MP, Rory Stewart, who recently returned
:05:11. > :05:18.from Yemen. And dword Gordon director of planning during the
:05:18. > :05:23.George W Bush era and now a risk consultant. David Gordon, let me
:05:23. > :05:28.ask you for your reaction to the fact that American Special Forces
:05:28. > :05:36.are readying for deployment? think here that what the Americans
:05:36. > :05:44.are getting ready for is the possibility of a new type of Al-
:05:44. > :05:49.Qaeda attack, based more on what happened in Benghazi than on the
:05:49. > :05:53.traditional purely terrorist attack that you have an instantaneous
:05:53. > :05:59.event, it has happened, something very, very big blows up. In
:05:59. > :06:05.Benghazi as we saw there was this massing of extremists and militants
:06:05. > :06:10.attacking a number of targets. I think that's what Special Forces
:06:10. > :06:16.are being readied to protect and go directed against. Of course we
:06:16. > :06:20.don't really know exactly what the threat is here? Rory Stewart, is it
:06:20. > :06:23.a good idea? Is it a good idea to withdraw British diplomats. Is it a
:06:23. > :06:27.good idea to get the special fores ready for deployment? I think we
:06:27. > :06:30.need to understand what this threat is. In that I really agree with
:06:30. > :06:34.David, we are really moving in the dark here. Unless we actually know
:06:34. > :06:37.what the threat is it is very difficult to understand. It is very
:06:37. > :06:42.unusual to have a situation where you would remove all your British
:06:42. > :06:46.diplomats out of a country. Normally in somewhere like Iraq and
:06:46. > :06:51.Afghanistan where there are very severe threats or even Yemen where
:06:51. > :06:54.we have had bad threats for a few years, you look down the embassy
:06:54. > :06:56.and trust the embassy defences to keep people out. I suspect there
:06:56. > :07:02.must be something very strange going on here in the nature of the
:07:02. > :07:06.threat. Meaning what?It must be something where they must guess and
:07:06. > :07:09.maybe David's right the Benghazi analogy is the right one, that the
:07:09. > :07:14.traditional defences of the embassy would not be enough to keep out the
:07:14. > :07:18.threat. Mr Gordon, are you surprised that US intelligence
:07:18. > :07:22.released such specific details about intercepting the
:07:22. > :07:29.communications between these two senior Al-Qaeda leaders? Well, I
:07:29. > :07:34.think part of the intent here was prevention, to say we know what you
:07:34. > :07:44.are up to, you better not do this. It is a bit unusual, but I think
:07:44. > :07:47.
:07:47. > :07:52.that this is part of this is for whatever reason is there is a
:07:52. > :07:56.chance that the terrorists know we know they are about to do something
:07:56. > :08:01.they may not do it. Can I also say we need to distinguish the
:08:01. > :08:06.terrorist threats from what has been happening in Yemen, that has
:08:06. > :08:09.been much more positive in the last two years than anyone expected. It
:08:09. > :08:13.is surprising now we find ourselves looking at Yemen in this way. If
:08:13. > :08:17.you look at all the negotiation happening, people predicted civil
:08:17. > :08:22.war, they predicted chaos, actually things have been much better
:08:22. > :08:25.recently. Do you really think so? The problem of Yemen and Al-Qaeda
:08:25. > :08:30.operatives there has been around for a number of years, hasn't it?
:08:30. > :08:35.It has, but if you go back a year or 18 months, Al-Qaeda were holding
:08:36. > :08:38.territory in Yemen. That was gotten rid of, they no longer hold the
:08:38. > :08:42.territory. There was going to be huge problems between seperatists
:08:42. > :08:46.in the south and groups in the north, it didn't really materialise.
:08:46. > :08:54.Yemen has been more peaceful than people feared. Is that how it has
:08:54. > :08:58.been seen in Washington? I think Yemen is still seen as being the
:08:58. > :09:02.territory for a very capable Al- Qaeda group. But I think Rory is
:09:02. > :09:07.right that in terms of how people were thinking about Yemen a year or
:09:07. > :09:14.two ago, it was quite a bit more negative than what we have seen.
:09:14. > :09:19.Look, I think what we may be seeing here is Al-Qaeda leadership in
:09:19. > :09:26.Afghanistan and Pakistan urging the Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Middle
:09:26. > :09:31.East, in North Africa, in the Levant, to do something against a
:09:31. > :09:34.western target. Because in effect the centre piece of the Al-Qaeda
:09:34. > :09:41.resurgence in this part of the world has been in Syria. What they
:09:41. > :09:47.have really been doing here is fighting against Assad and
:09:47. > :09:52.Hezbollah. I think what Al-Zawahiri is trying to say here is, yes it is
:09:52. > :09:56.OK to become domestically focused on the near enemy, but don't lose
:09:56. > :10:03.sight of the ultimate target of Al- Qaeda and that is the west and we
:10:03. > :10:07.need to do something to show that we are still a form mid-able anti-
:10:07. > :10:10.western organisation. -- Formidable anti-western
:10:10. > :10:14.organisation. How should the west deal with that? We need to deal
:10:14. > :10:17.cautiously. What I mean by this is we mustn't upset a lot of the
:10:17. > :10:21.progress that has been made in Yemen. In the long run the way to
:10:21. > :10:24.deal with a terrorist threat in Yemen is to get stability in that
:10:24. > :10:27.country. That stability is painfully getting there. It has
:10:27. > :10:32.been getting there because we managed to hold Russia and China
:10:32. > :10:35.and the United States and France and Britain together with the whole
:10:35. > :10:40.gulf operation council. Very unusual to have all these countries
:10:40. > :10:44.co-operating. What we want to avoid is an anti-terrorist strategy that
:10:44. > :10:47.begins to disrupt the stability that is beginning to emerge. Let's
:10:47. > :10:54.hope that whatever this is we are going to get back to diplomatic
:10:54. > :10:59.operations, so we will be able to reopen these embassies. No more
:10:59. > :11:05.drones? Drone strikes will continue in Yemen. Would you like them to
:11:05. > :11:10.stop? Sorry?Would you like them to stop? Am I in favour of drone
:11:10. > :11:15.strikes? I'm not, for different reasons I'm not a great fan of
:11:15. > :11:19.drone strikes, I think we can expect them to continue in Yemen
:11:20. > :11:23.for the foreseeable future. It is clear the US thinks Yemen is
:11:23. > :11:28.the new frontline in the war with Al-Qaeda, which is why they have
:11:28. > :11:31.been sending as many drones there as they have to Pakistan and
:11:31. > :11:36.Afghanistan. Strikes by drone aircraft have wiped out a whole
:11:36. > :11:42.generation of Al-Qaeda's leadership. But is the use of them creating as
:11:42. > :11:50.many enemies as they are killing? We have been to Zinjibar in
:11:50. > :11:55.southern Yemen. The report contains some disturbing images.
:11:55. > :12:00.We're heading into Zinjibar in southern Yemen. For years Al-Qaeda
:12:00. > :12:05.in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, have planned attacks from this part
:12:05. > :12:10.of the country. There have been Yemeni army operations on the
:12:10. > :12:16.ground, American drone strikes from the air, and repeated Al-Qaeda
:12:16. > :12:22.counter strikes. This is a town under siege. On the streets we can
:12:22. > :12:32.find little public support for Al- Qaeda. But plenty of anger over the
:12:32. > :12:44.
:12:44. > :12:54.drones that target AQAP. What do you blame for the retruction of
:12:54. > :13:16.
:13:16. > :13:20.Winning the support of people like this is crucial in America's fight
:13:20. > :13:30.against extremism. The people here fear US drones as much as they fear
:13:30. > :13:36.
:13:36. > :13:40.Mohhamed Bagash and his two children were outside a health
:13:40. > :13:50.clinic when it was hit by an American strike. They ran to a
:13:50. > :14:09.
:14:09. > :14:19.school and hid in the basement, He carried his children out, his
:14:19. > :14:32.
:14:32. > :14:37.son survived but his eight-year-old daughter bled to death. 15
:14:37. > :14:47.eyewitnesses reported seeing a drone hovering in the air, and two
:14:47. > :14:52.
:14:52. > :14:58.President Obama has said that drone strikes kill far fewer civilians
:14:58. > :15:05.than conventional bombing or ground operations. In the capital, Sana'a,
:15:05. > :15:09.I have come to meet one of the most pro--American voices in Yemen.
:15:09. > :15:19.Farea Al-Muslimi runs a pro- democracy organisation. He thinks
:15:19. > :15:23.
:15:23. > :15:27.the drone war is playing right into Al-Qaeda's hands.
:15:27. > :15:31.I think the drones have been one of the effective tools for Al-Qaeda in
:15:31. > :15:36.Yemen. A big part of power for Al- Qaeda at the moment is to convince
:15:36. > :15:40.Yemenis that they are in a war with Yemen and they are attacking the
:15:40. > :15:44.sovereignty. One of the biggest mistakes he says is the way that
:15:44. > :15:49.the US deals with civilian casualties. You are killing
:15:49. > :15:57.civilians for no need and you are not even going to say sorry or
:15:57. > :16:03.admit it or issue apology or pay compensation. Last September Ahmed
:16:03. > :16:07.was working in the fields outside the town, his father, mother and
:16:07. > :16:17.sister had gone to visit the local health clinic. It was 3.00pm when
:16:17. > :16:42.
:16:42. > :16:46.he heard a buzzing noise in the sky, He jumped on his motorbike to see
:16:46. > :16:56.what had happened, when he got there he found that two missiles
:16:56. > :17:24.
:17:24. > :17:28.This footage was given to us by a local journalist. It is too
:17:28. > :17:33.gruesome to show in full. The truck was packed with passengers coming
:17:33. > :17:38.back from the market. The target was probably a local Al-Qaeda
:17:38. > :17:48.leader, seen travelling on the same stretch of road. He got away, but
:17:48. > :18:02.
:18:02. > :18:05.13 people were incinerated. The few people that survived were taken to
:18:05. > :18:15.the local clinic, they report seeing at least one drone and two
:18:15. > :18:15.
:18:15. > :19:21.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 65 seconds
:19:21. > :19:24.In an off the record quote, given to a US newspaper, US officials did
:19:24. > :19:29.concede it was an American strike. But there has been no American
:19:29. > :19:39.acknowledgement or apology to the families of the 13 victims in Yemen.
:19:39. > :19:53.
:19:53. > :20:03.What does your community think, who do they blame for this? What would
:20:03. > :20:08.
:20:08. > :20:12.you say to the people who ordered this strike? The Yemeni Government
:20:12. > :20:18.has promised an investigation into the attack. But no-one we spoke to
:20:18. > :20:23.has seen any evidence of an inquiry. One group that does claim to offer
:20:23. > :20:27.justice and redress is Al-Qaeda. We have heard many reports of Al-
:20:28. > :20:32.Qaeda appearing after air strikes offering compensation and
:20:32. > :20:36.increasing recruitment. Al-Qaeda have stepped in to help rebuild
:20:36. > :20:39.homes, they provide funeral costs and offer financial support to the
:20:39. > :20:43.families of those killed and injured. They also pressure the
:20:43. > :20:48.relatives of those killed to join up to gain revenge. It is clear
:20:48. > :20:53.that even when they lose active members, Al-Qaeda use these strikes
:20:53. > :20:57.as an opportunity to recruit many more.
:20:57. > :21:02.President Obama has said there is little chance of capturing
:21:02. > :21:05.militants, Yemen is too weak. The state's reach too limited. He says
:21:06. > :21:11.sometimes the only option is to kill.
:21:11. > :21:18.But here many argue suspects can be caught, and they accuse the United
:21:18. > :21:24.States of extra judicial execution. Anwar al-Awlaki was chief
:21:24. > :21:31.propagandaist for AQAP, a Yemeni- American, he called for attacks on
:21:31. > :21:39.American targets. He had close ties to the underwear bomber who tried
:21:39. > :21:45.to explode a bomb in an aeroplane over Detroit in 2009. I'm on the
:21:45. > :21:50.way to meet Mr Al-Awlaki's father. He says he was negotiating a deal
:21:50. > :21:55.that would have seen his son stand trial, instead his son was killed
:21:56. > :22:01.by an air strike. But your son was preaching hate and himself had
:22:01. > :22:05.praised attacks on America? Even if he made some of those sermons that
:22:05. > :22:09.could be classified as hate sermons, I don't think it is right for the
:22:09. > :22:14.United States to go and kill him. But he is accused of being involved
:22:14. > :22:22.in the airliner plot? Legally these are only allegations. They have not
:22:22. > :22:25.been proven in a court of law. I don't know that in any court that
:22:25. > :22:30.those allegations were proven against my son. If there are any
:22:30. > :22:35.allegations against my son the United States Government could have
:22:35. > :22:40.done something else going to court, but they didn't do that, they went
:22:40. > :22:47.ahead and killed him. Mr Al-Awlaki said the ideology that consumed his
:22:47. > :22:55.son is now taking many more. There were maybe 300 people who were in
:22:55. > :23:00.Al-Qaeda. Now we are talking about thousands of people, all over Yemen.
:23:00. > :23:04.We asked an interview with the US Ambassador in Yemen, our request
:23:04. > :23:08.was declined. The Yemeni Foreign Minister did agree to an interview.
:23:08. > :23:18.We began by asking whether America's targeting of Yemenis in
:23:18. > :23:19.
:23:19. > :23:23.Yemen a threat to the country's sovereignty. I think sovereignty is
:23:23. > :23:28.in danger if it is done without the approval of the Government. If it
:23:28. > :23:31.is done with the approval of the Government and for the interests of
:23:31. > :23:34.the Yemeni people and their fight against terrorism, I don't think
:23:34. > :23:39.this applies. But it is making people angry?
:23:39. > :23:46.know, it make everybody angry to see drones coming and hitting
:23:46. > :23:52.targets in Yemen. And killing civilians? This is accidental, they
:23:52. > :23:56.are not targeting. Innocent people get killed, unfortunately. Every
:23:56. > :24:00.Yemeni we have spoken to said target strikes acted as a useful
:24:00. > :24:06.recruitment tool for them? I have heard this argument, there might be
:24:07. > :24:11.some truth in it. But I think the fact is that if your targets are
:24:11. > :24:17.Al-Qaeda leaders and if they are in dangering the security of your
:24:17. > :24:21.country, there is no alternative. The future of this conflict will
:24:21. > :24:25.depend on whether America can convince Yemenis that it is on
:24:25. > :24:30.their side. Every night in the back streets,
:24:30. > :24:39.young kids get together for a game of football. But growing up in
:24:40. > :24:49.Yemen is hard. Their prospects are bleak. Corruption is endemic,
:24:50. > :24:50.
:24:50. > :24:54.Yemenis are in poverty. It will take more than this to get rid of
:24:54. > :25:00.Al-Qaeda. The US provides hundreds of thousands of dollars in aid to
:25:00. > :25:03.Yemen. But the noise from targeted strikes is drowning out other
:25:03. > :25:10.progress. And whilst America continues to decimate Al-Qaeda from
:25:10. > :25:17.the sky, opposition in the streets is growing. At ground level winning
:25:17. > :25:24.in Yemen is harder than it look. You can see more of that reporting
:25:24. > :25:28.from Yemen on Our World on the news channel this weekend.
:25:28. > :25:33.For avid economy watchers in this country there have been several
:25:33. > :25:37.sightings of a rare breed in the last few days, good news and quite
:25:37. > :25:41.a lot of it. Sales up, house prices up, even manufacturing up, for some
:25:41. > :25:45.it is enough to declare bomb times and break open the champagne. With
:25:45. > :25:49.most people still worse off than before the crash, so this recovery
:25:49. > :25:52.be like the British summer, unexpected, much celebrated and
:25:52. > :25:59.short lived. We have been finding out.
:25:59. > :26:07.The sun is out, the bars are open. The economy, like this cocktail, is
:26:07. > :26:16.exhibiting qualities of fire on top of ice. Growth amid Austerry, and
:26:16. > :26:21.in ever-larger dollop, led -- what matters is whether economic policy
:26:21. > :26:26.can stain this growth, and that depends on what is causing it.
:26:26. > :26:31.Today official figures showed a marked upturn in manufacturing, it
:26:31. > :26:34.grew by 1.9% in May and June. There has been a rise in the all-
:26:34. > :26:40.important service sector, that makes up two thirds of the economy.
:26:40. > :26:44.It is now growing faster than at any time through 2006. That has got
:26:44. > :26:48.economists rapidly remixing their GDP predictions. At the moment the
:26:48. > :26:52.good news just keeps on coming, it looks like maybe some sort of
:26:52. > :26:55.momentum is building in the economy. Some people have talked about the
:26:55. > :27:01.economy reaching escape velocity. Where the recovery becomes self-
:27:01. > :27:05.Steyning. I think that is maybe a bit over -- self sustaining, I
:27:05. > :27:10.think that is maybe a bit over the stop. Things are on a firmer
:27:10. > :27:15.footing than a few months ago. you dig into the details, there the
:27:15. > :27:21.problems start? The signs are all the bonhomie is being driven by
:27:22. > :27:25.lower saving and easier borrowing. If that is true and inflation takes
:27:25. > :27:29.off then the Governor of the Bank of England, Jay Carney, will be
:27:29. > :27:32.forced, or come under -- Mark Carney, will be forced to or come
:27:32. > :27:39.under pressure to raise interest rates. That is something he wishes
:27:39. > :27:44.to put off for as long as possible. In the first quarter we saw the
:27:44. > :27:48.savings ratio lower than for a long time. That poses dangers for the
:27:48. > :27:55.medium-to-long-term, first of all it may not be sustainable, and as a
:27:55. > :28:01.country we need to save more not less. Mark Carney gets the first
:28:02. > :28:05.taste of the limelight, the word is he will give a clear signal to keep
:28:06. > :28:10.interest rates low for a period. Something that did work in the US.
:28:10. > :28:14.If he fixes the rate too long and inflation eats up people's wages
:28:14. > :28:18.that could choke off the recovery, again. I think he will press ahead
:28:18. > :28:21.tomorrow with commit to go keep interest rates low for a long time
:28:21. > :28:27.until for example unemployment comes down to a certain rate. Some
:28:28. > :28:31.people think he doesn't need to do that any more, but the economy is
:28:31. > :28:36.picking up momentum. I think now is the time to keep interest rates low
:28:36. > :28:42.so people don't expect a rise and that snuffs out the recovery
:28:42. > :28:48.finally getting going. The bank also has to use its muscle to
:28:48. > :28:52.squash any new housing bubble. That has never been done before. There
:28:52. > :28:57.is no free lunch here. It is clearly a risk that if the governor
:28:57. > :29:02.guarantees interest rates will stay at zero for a very long time that
:29:02. > :29:04.does stoke up bubbles and risks eroding the credibility of monetary
:29:04. > :29:10.policy. It is a risk, but the risk of the other way that interest
:29:10. > :29:14.rates shoot up and choke off the recovery is probably going to be
:29:14. > :29:20.the determining factor here. Even if we do achieve lift-off, this
:29:20. > :29:24.chart shows how far we have to go. It logs the output of all the UK's
:29:24. > :29:27.productive industries, and shows we are nowhere near output at the peak.
:29:27. > :29:32.It is the rate of recovery, however temporary, that is politically
:29:32. > :29:38.important. For the past three years the political climate has been
:29:38. > :29:42.decidedly non-but colic, with the politicians -- non-bucolic,
:29:42. > :29:45.politicians aware that the buzz in London is not created elsewhere.
:29:45. > :29:51.Now economic growth is rising and spreading, you are beginning to
:29:51. > :29:57.hear two words you never thought you might in the same sentence,
:29:57. > :30:00.that is "autumn" and "election". Yes it is uneven and patchy growth,
:30:00. > :30:06.and if wages don't start to rise yes it will be hard to sustain. But
:30:06. > :30:11.it is starting to alter the political arithmetic.
:30:11. > :30:15.We talk to Allister Heath, the editor of City AM, and Kate Barker
:30:15. > :30:19.an economist and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee. How
:30:19. > :30:22.real is this, how tangible this recovery? The data we have had over
:30:22. > :30:26.the past couple of months has really been a lot stronger. It
:30:26. > :30:30.feels as though both business and consumers are starting to get some
:30:30. > :30:33.confidence back. That has been very badly lacking in the economy. I
:30:33. > :30:37.think this is good news. We have to be careful, we are coming are from
:30:37. > :30:44.a very long period of a very long depression. Output is still more
:30:44. > :30:48.than 3% lower than it was in 2008. It is a long way from a normal
:30:48. > :30:52.economy. In the piece we had know we talked about low savings rates
:30:52. > :30:56.and impaired banking sector. There is a long way to go before we hit
:30:56. > :30:59.something that feels normal. Despite the figures people are
:30:59. > :31:03.really struggling?. People are still getting poorer and wages are
:31:03. > :31:08.not going up as much as inflation. People are substantially poorer
:31:08. > :31:13.than a few years ago. I'm worried about this growth. It is the wrong
:31:13. > :31:15.kind of growth. It is growth fuelled once again by excessive
:31:15. > :31:19.consumer spending rather than increasing the production for the
:31:19. > :31:22.economy. We are not producing more or exporting more, we are spending
:31:22. > :31:26.more. What are we using to spend, we haven't got the wages or cash?
:31:26. > :31:31.No, so people are dipping into their savings and also the
:31:31. > :31:34.Government is fuelling increased borrowing and trying to stimulate
:31:34. > :31:37.the mortgage market is subsidising credit, is subsidising mortgages.
:31:37. > :31:41.That is quite a dangerous route, feel we have not really learned the
:31:41. > :31:45.lessons of the past. The economy is not being rebalanced. Yes it has
:31:45. > :31:50.grown, yes the news is good, and yes probably GDP will go up by much
:31:50. > :31:53.more than anybody thought this year. I don't really think it is
:31:53. > :31:58.sustainable in terms it is not high-quality growth or the growth
:31:58. > :32:02.we need to get out of the bubble we have seen for the last few years.
:32:02. > :32:08.The Governor of the Bank of England is expected to know tomorrow what
:32:08. > :32:12.the base rate will be. For a considerable period of time this
:32:12. > :32:16.called "forward guidance"? I don't know about this being the right
:32:16. > :32:19.sort of recovery. I don't think it is something that is started with
:32:19. > :32:24.consumer spending, you have to start somewhere. That will bring
:32:24. > :32:28.the production along with it. We won't produce if there is no demand,
:32:28. > :32:33.it is difficult to export at the moment. We have to look to the
:32:33. > :32:37.domestic consumer to get that back. What is the governor doing? We
:32:37. > :32:40.start to get people talking about interest rates going up. What he
:32:40. > :32:43.has to do tomorrow is to try to tell with us what are the
:32:43. > :32:47.circumstances in which the bank is going to start to put interest
:32:47. > :32:50.rates up, to try to stop people speculating month by month that is
:32:50. > :32:54.what is going to happen. He has quite a difficult job. I have been
:32:54. > :32:59.on the committee. The other eight members are pretty feisty and have
:32:59. > :33:05.quite different views. He isn't just going to give his views but
:33:05. > :33:09.the views of the committee. I think he will try to say to the public
:33:09. > :33:14.that they will keep bank rates low for some time, until unemployment
:33:14. > :33:19.is falling and wages picking up. If we don't see wages pick up we are
:33:19. > :33:22.not on our way back to recovery. What if he and the rest of the
:33:22. > :33:26.committee decide they need to pick up the base rate because inflation
:33:26. > :33:29.starts to shoot up and people have taken out mortgage, loans and so on
:33:29. > :33:33.and so forth, based on the fact that the base rate will stay low
:33:33. > :33:36.for a considerable period of time. It is a dangerous promise to be
:33:36. > :33:39.waiting at the moment. With the economy starting to grow we will
:33:39. > :33:44.start seeing inflationary pressures. What about the principle first of
:33:44. > :33:47.all? The principle of trying to say, look, I'm not going to put up rates
:33:47. > :33:51.unless something happens, unemployment falls or the economy
:33:51. > :33:56.starts to grow faster. That is fine. The problem is, at a time like now
:33:56. > :33:59.it is hard to predict anything like this. He's going to promise the
:33:59. > :34:03.wrong thing. I don't think now is the time for extended period of low
:34:03. > :34:07.interest rates. Quite the contrary. 0.5 interest rates in this country,
:34:07. > :34:10.a crisis level of interest rates, an emergency level of interest
:34:10. > :34:13.rates. We are no longer in the emergency situation. The economy is
:34:13. > :34:16.growing. You have retail sales going up, manufacturing, you have
:34:16. > :34:21.all the good figures coming out of the economy and we shouldn't be
:34:21. > :34:25.talking about keeping rates low for another six months. You would put
:34:25. > :34:30.the base rate up by how much? quarter or half a point. For what
:34:30. > :34:35.purpose? First to send a symbolic signal to show the economy is
:34:35. > :34:40.recovering and the bank is more confident and rates should go up.
:34:40. > :34:42.It is a pro-growth move. To start warning people rates will go up
:34:42. > :34:47.more as the economy continues to grow and they need to get their
:34:47. > :34:51.finances in order, and they need to reduce borrowing and rates starting
:34:51. > :34:56.to up properly. Do we need that warning? I disagree with that.
:34:56. > :35:02.Firstly, I think if we started to put rates up a little bit, there is
:35:02. > :35:06.a big risk that markets would get carried away push the yield up, it
:35:06. > :35:09.will affect money for the long-term for companies. I don't agree with
:35:09. > :35:13.the proposition that once rate go up they have to go up a long way.
:35:13. > :35:19.In terms of bank rate we know, of course, that other rate, the rates
:35:19. > :35:23.people are borrowing at are well above 0.5 indeed. It has been very
:35:23. > :35:28.difficult to get rates as low as we would have liked. I don't think
:35:28. > :35:31.they need to go up a long way in the next few years. I wouldn't want
:35:31. > :35:34.to start warning people of thated today.
:35:34. > :35:41.Patient safety should be the English NHS's top priority. That
:35:41. > :35:45.was the message today from no less than a former healthcare adviser to
:35:45. > :35:49.Barack Obama. In the wake of needless suffering in some of our
:35:49. > :35:55.hospital, the Government asked Professor Don Berwick to assess
:35:55. > :35:59.what had gone wrong. His review spoke of a zero-harm culture, tried
:35:59. > :36:04.in Scotland, and a new criminal offence of willful misconduct he
:36:04. > :36:14.doesn't seem the need to prosecute health workers who fail to report
:36:14. > :36:40.
:36:40. > :36:44.mistakes. He doesn't also want In the two-and-a-half thousand
:36:44. > :36:49.years since the hippocratic oath was written, healthcare has changed
:36:49. > :36:52.immeasurably. But the tenet of the oath remain the same. And yet, in
:36:52. > :36:57.the 21st century, in spite of all the developments that should have
:36:57. > :37:04.made looking after patients safer, many more than expected still die
:37:04. > :37:09.under NHS care. Today one of the world's leading experts on patient
:37:09. > :37:15.safety published his plans to create a culture of called "zero-
:37:15. > :37:20.harm" in the NHS. One of Professor Don Berwick's findings is NHS staff
:37:20. > :37:24.are not to blame. He says in the vast majority of cases it is the
:37:24. > :37:30.systems, procedure, conditions, the environment and constraints they
:37:30. > :37:33.face that lead to patient safety problems.
:37:33. > :37:38.His recommendations include that staffing numbers should be adequate
:37:38. > :37:42.and decided locally. He did not recommend minimum staffing levels.
:37:42. > :37:47.Criminal sanctions should apply to reckless and willful neglect or
:37:47. > :37:51.mistreatment of patients. But that unintended errors must not be
:37:51. > :37:56.criminalised. Staff should speak up when things go wrong. But there
:37:56. > :38:01.should be no blame culture. More simple regulation with an
:38:01. > :38:04.independent review by the end of 2017.
:38:04. > :38:08.While patient and nursing groups welcome the report, they say
:38:08. > :38:13.opportunities have been missed. doesn't go far enough. We know from
:38:13. > :38:18.evidence, from countries like Australia, and from the United
:38:18. > :38:21.States, California by way of example, staffing level are decreed
:38:21. > :38:26.in law. Organisation are not permitted to go below the minimum.
:38:26. > :38:31.Where we have had problems in some parts of the NHS, it has often been
:38:31. > :38:35.the case that you had far too few people on frontline doing the job.
:38:35. > :38:42.We believe at some stage by law minimum staffing levels would be
:38:42. > :38:45.set. We think that is in everyone's interest. My charity here is on a
:38:45. > :38:51.daily basis are hearing horrendous stories about what has gone wrong
:38:51. > :38:55.in the NHS. That hasn't gone away. This report might be a small step
:38:55. > :39:04.in getting the patient safety, culture and communication needs
:39:04. > :39:07.that we have. It can only work to complement the report about Mid-
:39:07. > :39:14.Staffordshire. That report made 290 recommendations which is when
:39:14. > :39:19.patient safety really came to the fore. In the cake of that inquiry,
:39:19. > :39:23.England's Medical Director, Sir Bruce Keogh, investigated 14 NHS
:39:23. > :39:30.Trusts in England, 11 have been placed in special measures. While
:39:30. > :39:35.those reports looked at specific trusts, this review is welcomed by
:39:35. > :39:38.some as encouraging culture change across the NHS. Those serious
:39:38. > :39:41.incidents of disastrous care are wrong, thankfully. Never the less
:39:42. > :39:46.the whole system could do a lot better to focus more on patient
:39:46. > :39:49.safety. This report was taking that system-level view, with a range of
:39:49. > :39:54.recommendations, right the way from staff in the NHS through to
:39:54. > :39:58.Government. How you can achieve that sort of change. But changing
:39:58. > :40:02.the culture of a huge organisation like the NHS is not something that
:40:02. > :40:06.will happen quickly. Meanwhile today the medical production
:40:06. > :40:09.society found three-quarters of sunnor doctors they surveyed said
:40:09. > :40:16.they did not have enough time to give their patients the care they
:40:16. > :40:20.require. Earlier I went to the Department of Health to speak to
:40:20. > :40:24.Professor Berwick. Can I ask you first of all about the structure of
:40:24. > :40:27.the NHS, huge bureaucratic organisation, over one million
:40:27. > :40:32.employees thousands of managers. From your experience of it, do you
:40:32. > :40:35.think it is the right structure to deliver safe patient care? There is
:40:35. > :40:40.probably no-one right structure, but it is a promising structure to
:40:40. > :40:45.do it T you have central accountability, the ability to
:40:45. > :40:49.deploy resources and enormous possibility for learning. The NHS
:40:49. > :40:57.is big enough anywhere a problem develops somebody else on the
:40:57. > :41:02.system may have solved. It may be a weakness but it is its greatest
:41:02. > :41:05.strength. Overly bureaucratic? There is that in all agencies, and
:41:05. > :41:09.we experiment with deferred authority and oscillating. I think
:41:09. > :41:14.there is a sense that a lot of the important things that need to
:41:14. > :41:18.happen will happen in the shortend, in the hospitals, Trusts and
:41:18. > :41:22.regions, that is a productive direction. If one of your relatives
:41:22. > :41:26.had died from neglect in one of the hospitals in England in the last
:41:26. > :41:31.few years. You might justifiably want to blame someone? The human
:41:32. > :41:36.reaction to the strategy we saw at Mid-Staffordshire or something gone
:41:36. > :41:40.wrong is. It is anger, fear, remorse, looking for someone to
:41:40. > :41:44.blame, that is totally human. You would feel the same. Anything wrong
:41:44. > :41:49.with that. Nothing wrong with it, it just won't work. The way out of
:41:49. > :41:54.the trouble is really through a different approach. Hold on a
:41:54. > :41:57.minute, that wasn't ip tensional we didn't do it on purpose --
:41:57. > :42:00.intentional, we didn't do it on purpose, how can we stop it
:42:00. > :42:05.happening to anyone else again. We say it in a report that the only
:42:05. > :42:10.suitable homage to the people who suffered in mid-faf Fordshire is
:42:10. > :42:14.data, learning and improvement. You never, ever get to safety through
:42:14. > :42:18.anger and blame. You get there through learning, curiosity and
:42:18. > :42:24.commitment. What about the relatives who might want to hold
:42:24. > :42:27.someone accountable? Tremendous empathy for them. I understand how
:42:27. > :42:32.they would be angry, I would be too. The way to respond is to say look,
:42:32. > :42:37.we are going to make this better, we together will come together and
:42:37. > :42:42.we will make this service better and better and better in honour of
:42:42. > :42:46.your injured relative. It is the only way we can do that really
:42:46. > :42:49.respects them. If we choose a different path, the path of anger
:42:50. > :42:53.or recrimination, you don't get there. What will happen is people
:42:53. > :42:58.will hide the data, they will run and hide.
:42:58. > :43:03.Because of the no-blame culture that you want to see in the NHS, is
:43:03. > :43:07.that why you have rejected what Francis recommended, which was this
:43:07. > :43:13.legal requirement for health staff to admit mistakes or report
:43:13. > :43:18.failings? I see it is a balancing act, we may have moved the balance
:43:18. > :43:23.to a different place. We do, for example, have in it a very small
:43:23. > :43:29.call for what would happen infrequently, the prosecution of
:43:29. > :43:33.people who willfully come close. There is respect to a duty or to
:43:33. > :43:40.disclose, that is a tricky business. You really can't require people to
:43:40. > :43:45.talk. It doesn't work. They will hide and become frightened. So we
:43:45. > :43:49.shyed away from a duty of reporting for everyone for everything. There
:43:49. > :43:52.is some strong language there about the absolute requirement that
:43:52. > :43:58.patients be told when something seriously goes wrong and that
:43:58. > :44:04.should be expected as a prove fgsal duty and owned by -- professional
:44:04. > :44:12.duty and owned by managers. Can you see a situation where a prosecution
:44:12. > :44:19.might be inappropriate? Sabotage when there is someone of criminal
:44:19. > :44:24.intent who is stealing mediciness and substituting. Do we need new
:44:24. > :44:31.laepblgslation? I'm not British -- Legislation? I'm not sure but the
:44:31. > :44:37.advisory group felt better reformed in me and some introduction of the
:44:37. > :44:43.statutory requirement would go some way. In mid-staffs the problem was
:44:43. > :44:49.not the absence of some statute, it was a cultural phenomenon where
:44:49. > :44:54.people didn't have the skills to look at data, and a vicious cycle
:44:54. > :44:59.began leading to opaqueness and injury. No new law would have
:44:59. > :45:03.prevended Mid-Staffordshire. In the past you have -- We vented Mid-
:45:03. > :45:09.Staffordshire. You described yourself as romantic about England
:45:09. > :45:12.would you confess that now? It is a nation committed to universality
:45:12. > :45:19.and as a basic human right. You have chosen to do it with tax
:45:19. > :45:23.support and publicly funded. You have done it in a way that is free
:45:23. > :45:27.at the point of service. It is committed to equity. It is an
:45:27. > :45:32.amazing investment. I'm still a constant fan of that endeavour.
:45:32. > :45:37.are still romantic about it? still think it is ra great human
:45:37. > :45:42.endeavour. If look at Mid- Staffordshire for a minute, take a
:45:42. > :45:46.step back, what happened here was something went badly wrong. That
:45:46. > :45:48.could happen anywhere. It went badly wrong. So many other nations
:45:48. > :45:54.and places nothing would have happened, something went badly
:45:54. > :45:59.wrong much you wouldn't have a mechanism here, the country is
:45:59. > :46:08.mobilised journalism, the fo., my point is you can act because you
:46:08. > :46:11.have a -- can take it and execute it. It is a shame it has to be
:46:11. > :46:21.triggered by tragedy but you can act on it and improve things. I
:46:21. > :46:50.
:46:50. > :46:53.think that will happen. That's all for tonight. We will be back
:46:53. > :47:03.tomorrow. Until then, have a good tomorrow. Until then, have a good
:47:03. > :47:30.
:47:30. > :47:34.evening. . Wednesday starts with rain in
:47:34. > :47:38.Scotland, that will break up into showers during the day. Some cloud
:47:38. > :47:41.building as the day goes on, but the rain is hard to find the one or
:47:41. > :47:45.two showers popping up in Northern Ireland, a scattering of showers
:47:45. > :47:51.for the afternoon in Scotland. Sunnier spells inDean. Inamongst
:47:51. > :47:54.those hef and slow moving, but most will avoid them. As we look to
:47:54. > :47:59.northern England you have cloud, sunny spells, the Midlands too.
:47:59. > :48:04.There will be more cloud compared with today. The far south-east for
:48:04. > :48:08.coastal counties, there may be a shower or thunder storm hopping
:48:08. > :48:13.across the channel. A lower risk they will push inland.
:48:13. > :48:18.The south west of England and for Wales, yes, the odd stray shower,