:00:12. > :00:16.is the makings of a deal to get Syria to relinquish its chemical
:00:16. > :00:20.weapons, weapons its finally acknowledged it has. While
:00:20. > :00:24.President Assad negotiates on Russian TV. Tonight we meet some of
:00:24. > :00:30.the millions of refugees sheltering in Lebanon. Too much too soon? The
:00:30. > :00:32.education ministers doesn't admit that starting school at the age of
:00:32. > :00:33.education ministers doesn't admit seven is much better for children.
:00:33. > :00:39.She will tell us why. seven is much better for children.
:00:39. > :00:42.# Bicycle # Bicycle
:00:42. > :00:45.Stkpwhrk is the economy picking up speed?
:00:45. > :00:48.We ride around the personal indicators.
:00:48. > :00:52.The economics of confidence are like riding a bike, one minute it
:00:52. > :00:56.is all wobbly, worrying about doom, the next minute you are sailing
:00:57. > :01:01.along and on the upside. It is all about momentum.
:01:01. > :01:10.I will be checking the confidence levels with my guests.
:01:10. > :01:17.The Chinese puzzlele, too many men and not enough women. Marriage in
:01:17. > :01:21.China seems like a distant fairytale, we hang out with the
:01:21. > :01:32.love hunters. TRANSLATION: There is a lot of competition, the girls are
:01:32. > :01:35.demanding a prefer tall guys. Good evening, in the last few
:01:35. > :01:39.minutes we have learned that Twitter will sell shares to the
:01:39. > :01:47.public. The company made an announcement in a tweet, and the
:01:47. > :01:51.on-line world is abuzz tonight. In a minute we will hear from the
:01:51. > :01:56.Lebanese border. First there is no doubt that the momentum of Syria is
:01:56. > :02:00.with President Putin now, indeed the Republican leadership have
:02:00. > :02:04.wasted no time in sticking the boot in into President Obama, claiming
:02:05. > :02:07.he used Syria as a distraction from domestic bugetry business. The
:02:07. > :02:11.caravan has moved to Geneva, where the US secretary and his Russian
:02:12. > :02:18.counterpart have been joshing over who is calling the shots. After
:02:18. > :02:29.Assad's star appearence on Russian TV, the UN said it had a request to
:02:29. > :02:32.join the chemical weapons ban. How significance is that? Signing
:02:32. > :02:36.join the chemical weapons ban. up to the chemical weapons
:02:36. > :02:38.convention is important. A week or two ago Syria was barely
:02:38. > :02:44.acknowledging those weapons. That is a key thing. Yet we still hear
:02:44. > :02:47.this rhetorical diplomacy from President Assad this morning saying
:02:47. > :02:51.they won't do this unless the threat of American force is lifted
:02:51. > :02:55.and they stop supplying arms to the rebels. Today, bizarrely enough the
:02:55. > :02:59.Washington Post leaked the story that arms have started arriving
:02:59. > :03:03.from the Americans through the CIA with the rebels this very day. So
:03:03. > :03:05.you would think how can they reconcile these particular
:03:05. > :03:07.you would think how can they positions these political stands.
:03:08. > :03:18.you would think how can they We got more of that from John Kerry
:03:18. > :03:21.soon after he arrived in Geneva. Only the credible threat of force
:03:21. > :03:26.and the intervention of President Putin and Russia based on that has
:03:26. > :03:31.brought the Assad regime to acknowledge, for the first time
:03:31. > :03:35.that it even has chemical weapons, and an arsenal and it is now
:03:35. > :03:42.prepared to relinguish it. President Obama has made clear that
:03:42. > :03:45.should diplomacy fail, force might be necessary to deter and degrade
:03:45. > :03:51.should diplomacy fail, force might Assad's capacity to deliver these
:03:51. > :03:55.weapons. So is it actually going nowhere? No, it is going somewhere,
:03:55. > :03:59.that is the fascinating thing. Despite the rhetoric we heard from
:03:59. > :04:04.John Kerry, we know working groups are sitting in Geneva with Russian
:04:04. > :04:06.chemical warfare experts and American ones deciding practically
:04:06. > :04:09.chemical warfare experts and how would you do that, if we can
:04:09. > :04:13.agree it in the Security Council. John Kerry has an inside into the
:04:13. > :04:16.American thought process. He thought about firstly
:04:16. > :04:19.internationally safeguarding the stocks, then removing them from
:04:19. > :04:22.Syria for destruction elsewhere. We stocks, then removing them from
:04:22. > :04:25.are getting insights into the process they have in mind. What is
:04:25. > :04:31.the Russian game here, is it keeping America away? Well, there
:04:31. > :04:36.is a view that this process, even if we accept it is being sincerely
:04:36. > :04:39.entered in to. Of course the state department and others would not
:04:39. > :04:43.accept that of President Assad, they are still casting doubtds
:04:43. > :04:46.about his motives, if it was completely sincere and the process
:04:46. > :04:50.went ahead, under the conditions of civil war, it could easily take a
:04:50. > :04:52.year or more to carry it out. During which time we know that
:04:52. > :04:56.year or more to carry it out. President Assad and Russia are
:04:56. > :05:02.insistent on the point there can be no American strikes while this
:05:02. > :05:05.process is going ahead. The dilemma is that price worth aPremier League
:05:05. > :05:16.for President Obama. Effectively it then -- it allows President Assad a
:05:16. > :05:21.free hand in a war that has already claimed 117,000 lives. Is there any
:05:21. > :05:26.way that President Obama can wrest any glory from this? If this is
:05:26. > :05:29.what it seems to be, which is an increasingly viable and practical
:05:29. > :05:34.diplomatic discussion about how this can be done, yes, if it comes
:05:34. > :05:37.through. Because securing those chemical weapons is a vital
:05:37. > :05:40.national interest to the United States. If that process goes ahead
:05:40. > :05:44.he can say to the American people we have done this. The question,
:05:44. > :05:49.what will he have had to give up in order to do that, and will he be
:05:49. > :05:54.seen as selling out the suffering people, those in the refugee camps
:05:54. > :05:57.in Syria, who have been pleading to American help in order to get that
:05:57. > :06:02.over the past few years. Let's hear more about that, a deal on chemical
:06:02. > :06:07.weapons might be on the table. There is no sign the conflict
:06:07. > :06:08.itself and the dreadful damage inflicted on Syrians by
:06:08. > :06:11.itself and the dreadful damage conventional weaponry will let up.
:06:11. > :06:15.Thousands are still fleeing out of the country, more than two million
:06:15. > :06:26.people. Many escaping to Lebanon. Jeremy has been to a refugee camp.
:06:26. > :06:34.The bishop has more on his mind than usual. His diocese straddles
:06:34. > :06:38.the Bekar Valley, the route by which refugees flee Syria, across
:06:38. > :06:44.the border and into Lebanon. They say the fields and orchards of the
:06:44. > :06:48.Bekar Valley fed the Roman empire. Just over the hills in the distance
:06:48. > :06:57.is the frontier with the Assad dynasty. Since Islamist rebels fell
:06:57. > :07:02.like a wolf on the Christian fold of Maaloula, such as can throw
:07:02. > :07:06.themselves on the bishop's mercy. This refugee needs help to pay the
:07:06. > :07:11.rent, the bishop promises that if she gives her name, she will go on
:07:11. > :07:16.to a list and when aid arrives they will be in touch. Those who make it
:07:16. > :07:22.here are offered a place to weather the storm. They start to stay with
:07:22. > :07:27.the people, and we tried to find them somewhere to live. We tried to
:07:27. > :07:34.find jobs for them. We try our best really. I'm afraid if there is an
:07:34. > :07:39.attack in Syria, we will have more ref refugees in will he be I don't
:07:39. > :07:44.know. That is why I called the international community to stop
:07:44. > :07:47.sending arms to Syria. To work together with the Syrian people for
:07:47. > :07:53.sending arms to Syria. To work the peace. Otherwise we don't know
:07:53. > :08:00.what will happen. Not only in Syria, in Lebanon, in Turkey, and all the
:08:00. > :08:04.Middle East. Fear knows no creed and Christians are a minority among
:08:04. > :08:10.the refugees. Most of those fleeing the fighting are Muslims. Three-
:08:10. > :08:12.quarters of a million refugees have reached Lebanon, and the promise of
:08:12. > :08:15.sanctuary. The lucky ones shelter in small
:08:15. > :08:20.sanctuary. camps, this one is home, if that's
:08:20. > :08:25.the word, to 80 families who live in rented tents in an orchard. No-
:08:25. > :08:41.one wants to stay here, but the tents are beginning to look
:08:41. > :08:44.depressingly permanent. 1-2-3-4-5- 6-7-8-9-10. Some of the children
:08:44. > :08:49.have seen things no-one should ever have had to see. All have read the
:08:49. > :08:52.fear and desperation in the eyes of their parents. In the impromptu
:08:52. > :08:59.school, students have volunteered as their teachers. They must have
:08:59. > :09:06.seen some terrible things? Yes, of course, but they are children. You
:09:06. > :09:12.know and we cannot stop their imagination of the children. Things
:09:12. > :09:18.that happened and in themselves and their growing is peace, they want
:09:18. > :09:26.peace, they don't want war and terror. Most of these people seem
:09:26. > :09:32.to blame Assad. But whatever their feelings life has to go on. This
:09:32. > :09:40.couple, who sold sweets for a living in Syria had a baby in the
:09:40. > :09:46.camp. They called him Jihad. I would like to ask you what it was
:09:46. > :09:50.like having a baby in the camp here? TRANSLATION: Very hard, it
:09:50. > :09:53.was freezing. There was a lot of snow, so it was really hard. When
:09:53. > :09:59.was freezing. There was a lot of do you think your son will go back
:09:59. > :10:03.to Syria? TRANSLATION: Of course, God willing, he will return, even
:10:03. > :10:05.if we his parents don't ever, his generation will go back. Even if
:10:05. > :10:10.if we his parents don't ever, his there is only rubble left, he will
:10:10. > :10:20.go back. Even if it is just to plant one rose. Le
:10:20. > :10:24.What is a -- what is a home, they have light, water and half-a-dozen
:10:24. > :10:28.or so lavatories between 400 of them. Parents and children do what
:10:28. > :10:35.they can, but a home is surely somewhere you feel you belong, and
:10:35. > :10:38.no-one belongs here. Yet this morning in Beirut there
:10:38. > :10:44.no-one belongs here. were hundreds and hundreds more
:10:44. > :10:47.learning the patience every refugee needs before officialdom can
:10:48. > :10:54.acknowledge your existence. Over half those fleeing are children.
:10:54. > :10:57.Lebanon's schools health and housing services are already
:10:57. > :11:03.stretched to near breaking point. There is now a real risk of Syria's
:11:03. > :11:09.war setting off instability across the region. When these people made
:11:09. > :11:14.the decision to lead everything behind them, a missile strike and
:11:14. > :11:18.who knows what else seemed terrifyingly imminent. It didn't
:11:18. > :11:23.happen or it hasn't happened yet, at least, but neither has the war
:11:23. > :11:29.ended. When you have nothing but the clothes you stand up in,
:11:29. > :11:34.diplomatic games seem very remote indeed.
:11:34. > :11:39.Still they come, the old, the young, the millions in whom hope has been
:11:40. > :11:44.driven out by fear. The makeshift shelters give way to the concrete
:11:44. > :11:55.floor and the shortened horizons of lives lived from day-to-day. So
:11:55. > :11:59.very many small tragedies. Now we know that Newsnight viewers are
:11:59. > :12:02.pretty smart. But you might want to put a pen and paper together for
:12:02. > :12:06.the end of the programme. Right now though try to work out what age you
:12:06. > :12:10.were when you first went to school, are you four? Five? Six? The law
:12:10. > :12:14.now says that children must be in school by the age of five. But
:12:15. > :12:19.according to an influential group of educationalists writing in the
:12:19. > :12:23.Telegraph today, that is just too early for formal learning, never
:12:23. > :12:27.mind testing. Tomorrow they jaunch a Too Much Too Soon campaign, and
:12:27. > :12:31.point to the Scandinavian education system that starts at six or seven,
:12:31. > :12:33.and where children consistently achieve better education results,
:12:33. > :12:37.and where children consistently they say, as well as higher levels
:12:37. > :12:40.of well being. At the moment I will be asking the education minister if
:12:40. > :12:45.we have the whole thing wrong. First we have this.
:12:45. > :12:48.If you are six in Finland you can play all day. This morning these
:12:48. > :12:52.children were in kindergarten, now play all day. This morning these
:12:52. > :12:55.they are at their club. They won't start school until their seven.
:12:55. > :13:03.There are so many things you have to be able to do in school, sit
:13:03. > :13:11.still, receive orders and to fulfil them. To understand abstract
:13:11. > :13:16.concepts and most of those you have to do at the same time. So at the
:13:16. > :13:20.age of five they are still kids. Last year Finland's education
:13:20. > :13:24.system was ranked the best in the world. Based on how the students
:13:24. > :13:29.did in tests and how many went to university. Not surprising, then,
:13:29. > :13:34.that many in Britain are keen to copy them. When it comes to
:13:34. > :13:40.education questions this is a hardy perennial, do we start our children
:13:40. > :13:44.too early in formal education? And could this help explain the serious
:13:44. > :13:49.problems we have like poor literacy amongst boys or the achievement gap
:13:49. > :13:54.between rich and poor children. The head of this nursery thinks it can.
:13:54. > :14:00.Along with over 100 leading figures in education, she signed an open
:14:00. > :14:03.letter today saying our approach could cause profound damage to
:14:03. > :14:08.children's self-image and attitude to learning. The letter argues
:14:08. > :14:10.children should spend more time in high-quality nursery schools,
:14:10. > :14:16.learning informally, getting involved in active, outdoor,
:14:16. > :14:20.creative play. You don't need a structured environment, you needed
:14:20. > :14:24.a dults who are understanding how that child -- adults who are
:14:24. > :14:27.understanding how that child is learning, and using the early years
:14:27. > :14:30.understanding how that child is foundation stage. If a child is
:14:30. > :14:35.able to read at three then the adult supports that, if the child
:14:35. > :14:40.wants to do anything that they are interested in, calculus at four!
:14:40. > :14:42.That's fine. These parents agreed. Even in schools they don't play,
:14:42. > :14:48.they don't play enough. More play is always better, it gets them
:14:48. > :14:52.thinking, using their brains and different areas. That is what I
:14:52. > :14:56.feel. In eight European countries, including Finland, children have to
:14:56. > :15:00.be in school at seven. In 23 countries they have to be in school
:15:00. > :15:05.when they are six, in most of Britain and Cyprus it is five. In
:15:05. > :15:09.Northern Ireland school starts at four.
:15:10. > :15:13.Not everyone in education agrees with the letter writers, here, a
:15:13. > :15:19.cop of miles from the nursery, another -- a couple of miles from
:15:19. > :15:22.the nursery, another disadvantaged area of London, an educational
:15:22. > :15:25.charity believes the best way for children to learn is putting them
:15:25. > :15:30.in a structured environment as early as possible. Jacob's only six
:15:30. > :15:35.but he has been becoming to the Learning Store for two years, he's
:15:35. > :15:40.out tisic, he spends part of every estimate -- out tisic, he spends
:15:40. > :15:49.half of Saturday in the Blur fly Class, improving his reading. I
:15:49. > :15:59.don't want him to fall behind that is why I put him in the class. So
:15:59. > :16:03.he gets the extra help. Katie has run the classes for 14 years,
:16:03. > :16:07.mostly for children failed by their schools. They are saying that if
:16:07. > :16:10.you start teaching them in any formal way before age seven it is
:16:10. > :16:14.too much too soon. I would say that what we are doing at the present
:16:14. > :16:18.still isn't good enough, it is too little too late. Children has a
:16:18. > :16:22.very young age are very ready to learn in a formal manner. Yes they
:16:22. > :16:25.like to play, but they love to learn, they like to be taken
:16:25. > :16:28.seriously. They are extremely intelligent and I think we
:16:28. > :16:30.seriously. They are extremely underestimate them. There is
:16:30. > :16:35.another lesson from Finland. Teaching is highly competitive, and
:16:35. > :16:40.a masters degree is required even for primary school. Many would
:16:40. > :16:42.argue it is the quality of teaching across the system which make the
:16:42. > :16:51.difference, not the age children start formal school. We're going to
:16:51. > :16:55.talk to the Education Minister Liz Truss in a moment. First let as
:16:55. > :16:59.talk to Dr Mary Bousted, the General Secretary of the teachers
:16:59. > :17:02.union, the ATL, who backs this move. Isn't the issue that children at
:17:03. > :17:06.the age of five are sponges, they want to learn, they seek to learn,
:17:06. > :17:12.and that is what the system provides them with, a chance to
:17:12. > :17:16.learn? Well, they are sponges, but they need to have a strong grasp of
:17:16. > :17:18.key concepts before they can actually go on to formal learning.
:17:18. > :17:22.key concepts before they can For example let me just take the
:17:22. > :17:24.example of maths. Before you understand the importance of number,
:17:24. > :17:28.you have to know what number is. You have to understand the concept
:17:28. > :17:33.of more or less. And the way to understand that is through playing
:17:33. > :17:40.and through real live expeerence of what that means. Can you --Real
:17:40. > :17:46.live expeerence of what that means. Can you get that in school? We are
:17:46. > :17:51.in a period of where children are taught and tested. If there is a
:17:51. > :17:54.test for five-year-olds, how will that work? The Government will have
:17:54. > :17:56.to explain what is proposed as a baseline test at five to understand
:17:56. > :18:00.where they are and a more baseline test at five to understand
:18:00. > :18:03.formallised curriculum that will be further tested through a phonics
:18:03. > :18:08.test at six. If the Government has its way through every child in the
:18:08. > :18:12.country being ranked in percentages of where they are in respect of the
:18:12. > :18:16.national population at 11. We are entering a more testing period.
:18:16. > :18:19.national population at 11. We are Isn't it up to primary school
:18:19. > :18:23.teachers to cope with this and interpret it in the way they think
:18:23. > :18:27.best for the chin in their class? It is, but when you are under a
:18:27. > :18:30.strong accountability regime and having to meet particular standards,
:18:31. > :18:35.it can be very difficult to teach in way that does develop the
:18:35. > :18:40.ability of children to learn properly. The accountability regime
:18:40. > :18:43.imposes certain formallised approaches to teaching. Many
:18:43. > :18:47.schools are really under that regime at the moment. Won't your
:18:47. > :18:52.ideas, your plans hit less privileged children? No they won't.
:18:52. > :18:56.The evidence shows that countries which adopt a less formal approach
:18:56. > :19:00.to early years education, where children get a better grasp of
:19:00. > :19:04.concepts and they then approach the more formal concepts more ready to
:19:04. > :19:08.understand them. There is less of a gap between disadvantage and the
:19:08. > :19:12.advantaged children. How are those comparable, these two aren't
:19:12. > :19:16.comparable? The international system and this system? You can
:19:16. > :19:20.only compare systems by looking at another system, if they achieve
:19:20. > :19:23.better results, saying how is it and what are they doing. Most
:19:23. > :19:27.countries in western Europe start school later than us, and those
:19:28. > :19:31.that do very well have a less formal curriculum when children are
:19:31. > :19:38.very young. Thank you very much indeed. Well Liz Truss, the
:19:38. > :19:42.Education Minister is here. Too much too young, the idea is you are
:19:42. > :19:46.force-feeding formal education, no matter the level the child is at.
:19:46. > :19:50.Every child is at a different level? That is absolutely true, we
:19:50. > :19:53.have given teacher more flexibility in the new national curriculum to
:19:53. > :19:58.find the right level for the child and teach in the right way. If you
:19:58. > :20:01.go into a reception class you will find that children are playing,
:20:01. > :20:04.they are learning how to play together, they are learning how to
:20:04. > :20:08.take turns. What I think the issue is that too many children are
:20:08. > :20:13.arriving at school, not with those skills that Mary talked about, not
:20:13. > :20:14.ready to learn, so what we need to do is improve early years education
:20:14. > :20:19.to make sure that rather than the do is improve early years education
:20:19. > :20:23.33% of children who arrive at school without communication skills
:20:23. > :20:31.make sure they have them. So you believe the state should,
:20:31. > :20:36.essentially be in loco parentis? We are recruiting early years teachers
:20:36. > :20:40.for our nurseries. 96% of children take up early age education at
:20:40. > :20:44.three and four. Let's make sure it is high quality so children have
:20:44. > :20:48.the skills and vocabulary and learn how to take turns, and they start
:20:48. > :20:51.school ready to learn. We shouldn't delay the start because we haven't
:20:51. > :20:55.done the preparation beforehand. This Government and other
:20:55. > :20:58.Governments have always praised the Scandinavian system of education
:20:58. > :21:02.because of what comes out the other end. So therefore if you embrace
:21:02. > :21:06.some aspects of it, why can't you embrace the idea that the best way
:21:06. > :21:08.to start a child is to start a child informal low and then
:21:08. > :21:13.to start a child is to start a actually move to formal education
:21:13. > :21:19.at seven. It seems to work for Scandinavia and other countries in
:21:19. > :21:23.Europe. It is a complete misrepresentation of Scandinavia,
:21:23. > :21:28.they have formal settings in countries like Sweden with highly-
:21:28. > :21:32.trained teachers, an early years teachers are paid the same as a
:21:32. > :21:35.primary school teachers. Here we have them paid less. You think
:21:35. > :21:40.early years teachers should be better paid, a I hooer salary I
:21:40. > :21:43.would like to see them better respecteded and better paid it is
:21:43. > :21:48.really important. We are setting higher -- respected, and better
:21:48. > :21:54.paid, it is really important. We are setting higher standards to
:21:54. > :21:57.close the gap. If we can come back to the whole idea of the child,
:21:57. > :22:04.what Mary Bousted is saying, I in terms of concepts and socialisation
:22:04. > :22:07.and more and less, it means much more play, much less focused
:22:07. > :22:11.learning, and yet you have started putting kids into test situations
:22:11. > :22:15.at the age of five. Essentially you are putting them in pigeonhole,
:22:16. > :22:19.even before the age of six? We're absolutely not doing that. There is
:22:19. > :22:23.already an early years profile done at age four or five to see where a
:22:23. > :22:27.child is. We do that through the current system. What we are doing
:22:27. > :22:29.is we are saying schools can have a choice between using that and using
:22:29. > :22:33.is we are saying schools can have a alternative methods to see where a
:22:33. > :22:36.child is. But good teaching is all about finding what a child knows
:22:36. > :22:41.already, how they are learning, how they are developing and building on
:22:41. > :22:46.that. We're giving power to professionals to say this is the
:22:46. > :22:50.way we want to approach it, and this is the way we want to help
:22:50. > :22:54.children get on in their school career. Can I make the point about
:22:54. > :22:58.play. We are not about play, we absolutely think about children
:22:58. > :23:04.learning through play, the issue is whether it should be entirely
:23:04. > :23:07.child-initiated or teacher-led. And parents supporting? When you had on
:23:07. > :23:09.the film we will teach the child to read if they want to. I think that
:23:09. > :23:11.the film we will teach the child to is the wrong approach. What you
:23:11. > :23:15.will get is middle-class children with book on the balls, they will
:23:15. > :23:19.be the ones learning to read, the children who may not have an
:23:19. > :23:23.experience of reading will be the ones that are left behind. Are you
:23:23. > :23:26.saying that poor people and working-class people aren't capable
:23:26. > :23:33.of introducing their children to books? I'm saying that children on
:23:33. > :23:37.free school meals do much worse at GCSE than children without. There
:23:37. > :23:39.is a long tale of underperformance. Low income children arrive at
:23:39. > :23:44.school less well prepared. We have evidence to show that. What you are
:23:44. > :23:48.essentially saying is this policy is simple low because you believe
:23:48. > :23:53.that poorer children -- simply because you believe that poorer
:23:53. > :23:59.children need the Government to step? I'm saying we need to make
:23:59. > :24:03.sure that every child succeeds. Basically part of the problem with
:24:03. > :24:10.it is you need women to come into the work force, you just do, and
:24:10. > :24:15.therefore what you are offering is three and four-year-olds, places in
:24:15. > :24:18.nursery and form yamalised because that suits the economy, rather than
:24:18. > :24:22.child-centered which the UN believes the rights of the child
:24:22. > :24:27.won. We know 66% of mums go out to work, that is a fact of life. We
:24:27. > :24:29.know early education benefits all children. There is a study showing
:24:29. > :24:34.that early education has benefits far into a child's life, right
:24:34. > :24:37.through to 18. But it has to be high-quality early education, that
:24:37. > :24:41.is why we are raising the standard for early years teachers, we are
:24:41. > :24:44.giving professional autonomy. We are not saying how we want teachers
:24:44. > :24:48.to teach, what we are saying is we are going to allow you to get the
:24:48. > :24:52.best outcomes for children, to see where a child is, to offer much
:24:52. > :24:57.more flexibility. Let me give you an example. I can't have an example,
:24:57. > :25:00.we have run right out of time I'm sorry. All manner of indicators
:25:00. > :25:04.would suggest there is a new optimisim in the country, those
:25:04. > :25:09.popular folk, estate agents, are being recruited by the budgetload.
:25:09. > :25:16.The monthly consumer confidence bore barometer is at its highest in
:25:16. > :25:21.four years, and GDP is up to since the first quarter. How does it feel
:25:21. > :25:26.to you? Given the UK real wages have fallen by 5.5% since 2010, is
:25:26. > :25:31.confidence measured in hard data or is something else in the air. Be it
:25:31. > :25:37.the Olympics, a football match, an autumn day, or the joy the economic
:25:37. > :25:42.editor gets from riding a bike? The job market is moving, growth is
:25:42. > :25:45.accelerating and house prices are rising. But these are just the
:25:45. > :25:49.tangible side of the recovery, what we are waiting for is the return of
:25:49. > :25:54.something called "confidence", to invest, to spend, to take risk. But
:25:54. > :25:58.that is hard to quantify. The economics of confidence are a bit
:25:58. > :26:02.like riding a bike, one minute it is all wobbly, you are worried
:26:02. > :26:05.about doom, the next minute you are sailing along and everything is
:26:05. > :26:14.amplified on the upside. It is all about momentum. I have been
:26:14. > :26:17.amplified on the upside. It is all covering the economic crisis since
:26:17. > :26:25.it started. Here is what I think about when I think about confidence.
:26:25. > :26:29.Number one, pubs. Five years ago when Lehman Brothers went bust my
:26:29. > :26:32.local pub emptied, there was a dramatic loss of confidencek even
:26:32. > :26:36.though I don't think anybody there actually worked for Lehmans. Now,
:26:36. > :26:40.the economy is clearly coming back, but I still think a lot of pubs are
:26:40. > :26:44.struggling. If you look at the statistics on people's spending
:26:44. > :26:48.power there is a reason why. So what we found out over the last
:26:48. > :26:54.five years the average household has been squeezed by a prolonged
:26:54. > :26:59.period of inflation with essential items running ahead of regular pay.
:27:00. > :27:03.Pay growth all the way back since January 2010 has been running
:27:03. > :27:07.behind inflation, that has seen spending power squeezed
:27:07. > :27:11.considerably in the last three years. Number two is estate agents,
:27:11. > :27:15.house prices are rising, but the ones in the window are always a
:27:15. > :27:22.little bit optimistic. It is once estate agents start recruiting that
:27:22. > :27:26.you know the market is recovery. -- recovering. This week's job figures
:27:26. > :27:32.showed 380,000 private sector jobs have been created in that year.
:27:32. > :27:38.Staggeringly 77,000 of those were estate agents.
:27:38. > :27:43.And that, to me, is confidence. Number three might seem a bit close
:27:43. > :27:47.to home, but it is job adverts for journalists. I have come to
:27:47. > :27:51.London's Silicon Roundabout, home of the tip and techno-savvy to meet
:27:51. > :27:54.a man who can tell me what's happening in the recruitment market.
:27:54. > :27:58.We have seen some big investment plays by big players in the market.
:27:58. > :28:02.We have the Mail on-line, the website for the Daily Mail is out
:28:02. > :28:10.there recruiting 100 journalists for a big expansion. A lot of it on
:28:10. > :28:13.the back of the US. We have got the Evening Standard launching a TV
:28:13. > :28:16.station there, a good amount of journalism jobs there, and the Sun
:28:16. > :28:22.on-line coming to the market as well. Is journalism the canary in
:28:22. > :28:26.the coal mine when looking at an advertising upturn? They have to be
:28:26. > :28:30.confident about revenues coming through, on-line revenues are very
:28:30. > :28:34.much advertising that. Number four is a graph, the consumer confidence
:28:34. > :28:39.index, it is always a negative number, what now? This graph shows
:28:39. > :28:42.the last five years, it is recovering fast, that is because
:28:42. > :28:46.there is more credit in the economy. Of course, on my bike, I'm not
:28:46. > :28:51.really seeing outside London. The recovery beyond the M25 is patchy.
:28:51. > :28:55.That means a lot of people are not really confident there is a
:28:55. > :28:58.recovery at all. My final barometer of confidence is Twitter. Because
:28:58. > :29:02.every time a report like this goes out saying the statistics show
:29:02. > :29:13.signs of recovery, a lot of people tweet me saying basically I'm a
:29:13. > :29:17.Cameronite, Osbourneist full of propaganda. When that stops I will
:29:17. > :29:23.say confidence has returned. There is momentum and a bit of movement,
:29:23. > :29:29.but the magic ingredient of total confidence is till missing. Paul
:29:29. > :29:36.will be back with us soon when we explore that Twitter sale story.
:29:36. > :29:39.Are there reasons to be cheerful? Here is the assistant editor of the
:29:39. > :29:45.Financial Times and in New York we have the economist and director of
:29:45. > :29:51.the Earth Institute. You both look happy. Welcome to the studio. First
:29:51. > :29:55.of all, Gillian, is Paul right? Is there a feel-good factor, what is
:29:55. > :29:58.your equation for confidence? Paul is definitely right in the sense
:29:58. > :30:01.your equation for confidence? Paul that optimisim is rising. We have
:30:01. > :30:07.just seen the highest optimisim level for the last four years and
:30:07. > :30:10.the most significant increase, the fastest-pace of increase in decades
:30:10. > :30:14.that is striking. The level of optimisim is always relative, we
:30:14. > :30:17.have just been through a very bad recession. Frankly it is not
:30:17. > :30:20.surprising that people are feeling more confident. To me the big
:30:20. > :30:23.question is, who is feeling confident. Is it just the people
:30:23. > :30:27.who have assets that are being buoyed by qoosing. Or is it young
:30:28. > :30:33.people -- quantative easing, or is it young people as well, we don't
:30:33. > :30:37.have that breakdown. Where you sit in America, is confidence a self-
:30:37. > :30:43.fulfiling prophesy? It is a little bit more than that. I think there
:30:43. > :30:53.really is a recovery under way after the hard knocks of 2008/2009.
:30:53. > :30:56.The UK, and the eurozone that suffered badly, Japan and the
:30:56. > :31:02.United States are healing. There are still lots of wounds and
:31:02. > :31:08.structural imbalances like high inequality of income and lack of
:31:08. > :31:12.opportunities forepeople with lower skills or educational training. --
:31:12. > :31:17.for people with lower skills or educational training. There is a
:31:17. > :31:20.real recovery under way, and the real pessimists yelling at the
:31:20. > :31:23.Chancellor until recently, saying you are wrecking everything and
:31:23. > :31:28.driving the economy over the cliff have been proved wrong. Does it
:31:28. > :31:32.look different sitting in tech areas like San Francisco and New
:31:32. > :31:41.York and sitting in Nebraska or outside Detroit? Of course, so we
:31:41. > :31:44.are suffering from very, very, deep divides and widening inequality
:31:44. > :31:48.that has been widening for divides and widening inequality
:31:48. > :31:52.than two decades, even more than that. Our politicalcy thems have
:31:52. > :32:05.not wanted to look very deeply at. This is a real underlying -- it has
:32:05. > :32:10.left people without jobs on low incomes, it is not fair and right,
:32:10. > :32:17.the rich have just prospered incredibly and we need more balance,
:32:17. > :32:19.that is not yet soft. Is it true the people in Idaho and Nebraska
:32:19. > :32:22.that is not yet soft. Is it true don't matter as much. The boom and
:32:22. > :32:26.that is not yet soft. Is it true recovery here might look better in
:32:26. > :32:30.London than in North Shields? The answer is of course they matter. It
:32:30. > :32:36.is disgraceful to imagine we can have a society where the rich get
:32:36. > :32:41.richer. If you are living in London it is easy to feel confident, house
:32:41. > :32:45.prices are rise, partly due to foreign money coming in. The gap
:32:45. > :32:49.between the old and the young is perhaps the most important issues
:32:49. > :32:57.right now. If you are old and have assets, you are benefiting. If you
:32:57. > :33:01.have savings that earn very little interest. But if your house price
:33:01. > :33:02.is going up it offsets it. A fascinating study from the Bank of
:33:03. > :33:05.England last year, suggesting that fascinating study from the Bank of
:33:05. > :33:09.40% of the gains from quantative fascinating study from the Bank of
:33:09. > :33:16.easing have gone to the wealthiest 5%, they own stocks and houses. In
:33:16. > :33:19.the US in particular when stock markets go up confidence goes up
:33:20. > :33:25.too, particularly amongst people who are wealthier. Stock markets go
:33:25. > :33:29.up and people take huge risks we have problems then and it happens
:33:29. > :33:33.all over again? Absolutely, I don't think we are in bubble territory
:33:34. > :33:38.right now. Let's come back for housing, Jeffrey housing is up 12%
:33:38. > :33:43.in America as well. Part low because of the help to buy. And now
:33:44. > :33:49.we have Vince Cable so you better watch because of a housing bubble?
:33:49. > :33:51.That is a bit of an exaggeration. Take it from an American
:33:51. > :33:54.That is a bit of an exaggeration. perspective, house prices going up
:33:54. > :34:04.12% but still much, much lower than they were in 208. Yes we had a
:34:04. > :34:08.megabubble and collapse. And now we have some recovery because it has
:34:08. > :34:12.been a number of years of not building houses and finally people
:34:12. > :34:16.are earning some more income and coming back into the market. I do
:34:16. > :34:22.think the point is those who were panicking that we are going over
:34:22. > :34:25.the cliff, that's not the case. We see moderate growth in many, many
:34:25. > :34:31.important economies around the world, but I don't think we should
:34:31. > :34:34.therefore be complacent regarding these deeper problems of high
:34:34. > :34:41.unemployment among young people, very low wages if they have a job.
:34:41. > :34:44.People with the lower skills, we have to work on making our
:34:44. > :34:48.societies more fair. We also have to start looking at the long-term.
:34:48. > :34:51.Because in the meantime we are also still wrecking the environment and
:34:51. > :34:58.many other things, we haven't attended to any of those longer
:34:58. > :35:01.term issues. Always driven to the very short-term. Now that we have
:35:01. > :35:06.both feet on the ground, there is a bit of a recovery, let's think
:35:06. > :35:10.about the quality of the growth. Would you learn from history? I
:35:10. > :35:13.think certainly there have been a number of lessons learned. Let's
:35:13. > :35:19.not lose sight of the fact that it is good news that people are
:35:19. > :35:26.feeling more cheerful. Whether it was the summer, or Andy Murray
:35:26. > :35:29.winning Wimbledon, or a new baby in the palace. Danny Finkelstein said
:35:29. > :35:33.last night, he was talking about the Government last night and the
:35:33. > :35:37.recovery, he was saying it was very, very important for George Osborne
:35:37. > :35:39.and David Cameron not to talk up the recovery too much because that
:35:39. > :35:42.is what they have going for them, the continued idea of a recovery.
:35:42. > :35:47.You don't want to talk too soon? Maybe, but the enof the day, the
:35:47. > :35:50.thing that matters now is not so much our British consumers rushing
:35:50. > :35:55.thing that matters now is not so out and buying new sofas, it is are
:35:55. > :35:59.companies feeling confident enough to hire, invest in new plant and
:35:59. > :36:02.equipment and get the real economy growing as again. That is a key
:36:02. > :36:04.equipment and get the real economy question, we need to watch that
:36:04. > :36:12.closely and say house prices. We question, we need to watch that
:36:12. > :36:17.have an incredible short memory, over the last four years we have
:36:17. > :36:23.learned a lesson, or have we? No more Masters of the Universe?
:36:23. > :36:29.Tragedy is that quantative easing, pumping money into the economy and
:36:29. > :36:31.the rich have got richer, that is one of the ironies, dealing with
:36:31. > :36:34.the rich have got richer, that is that will be a challenge for
:36:34. > :36:42.politicians for years to come. Thank you very much for joining us.
:36:42. > :36:46.The news that Twitter is to share sell shares to the public has
:36:46. > :36:50.happened. Paul is here. What is the story did we expect it to happen so
:36:50. > :36:55.quickly? It has been rumoured for the last few days. Let me explain
:36:55. > :36:59.what is going on. An initial public offering is where you sell shares
:36:59. > :37:04.in a company to anyone who wants to buy them. What you are expecting is
:37:04. > :37:11.to make eight, ten fold back, invested by the original people who
:37:11. > :37:17.set the company up. Those moments are big signal moments, with
:37:17. > :37:21.capitalism, 1 up had had hundredors ago Goldman Sachs brought
:37:21. > :37:27.Woolworths, it dominated the 20d century. What we are looking at --
:37:27. > :37:32.20 years ago, a company in San Francisco was open opened up, has
:37:32. > :37:34.filed documents under a confidentiality clause which is is
:37:34. > :37:39.only available for companies that take less than a billion dollars a
:37:39. > :37:47.year. This is a country with 200 million user. It has been valued at
:37:47. > :37:52.8-10 billion. That is a ten fold increase put into it by the private
:37:52. > :37:57.investors. Look this company is, via these things, the new service
:37:57. > :38:02.of the world. There is two views of it, either it is a low-ref few tech
:38:02. > :38:07.company that nobody knows how it will make money. This is the radio
:38:07. > :38:11.of the 21st century. Who decides who will make money? It will be a
:38:11. > :38:17.big challenge to the company. Interesting fact, since Twitter was
:38:17. > :38:25.formed there have been 430 billion tweets dispatched across the world.
:38:25. > :38:31.£4 30 billion. It is an extraordinary triumph of technology
:38:31. > :38:37.and entrepenural driving the economy forward. The big question
:38:37. > :38:41.is for Twitter how to make money on The Tweets. Facebook have had the
:38:41. > :38:43.challenge, they managed to get our tentacles in our every day lives,
:38:43. > :38:48.we reply on them and use them but tentacles in our every day lives,
:38:48. > :38:50.don't want advertising on it. How do you monetise that? I think the
:38:50. > :38:56.don't want advertising on it. How answer to that has become clear in
:38:56. > :39:01.the past few days, Twitter acquired a company called Mo Pub, reported
:39:01. > :39:16.low the market leader in mobile advertising. Advertising on devices
:39:16. > :39:20.is so technological choices, if will be used to outFacebook
:39:20. > :39:24.Facebook. A lot of people who use Twitter doesn't want to be
:39:24. > :39:31.interrupted or bothered. Two ways to do it, put adverts on to the
:39:31. > :39:36.tweets, the creepier way is to actually start sorting people into
:39:36. > :39:41.groups and use algorithms to look at their behaviour and sell things
:39:41. > :39:46.more subtley. What is fascinating now is seeing the same geeks doing
:39:46. > :39:50.finance a decade ago and getting involved in using their mats to
:39:50. > :40:02.read how markets are going, they are trying to lead us to do the
:40:02. > :40:09.same. Twitter needs to hosepipe the data to sort us all out. There will
:40:09. > :40:19.be a real jarb lash about that? This company don't tell us what the
:40:19. > :40:26.user base is. 200 million is the starter figure. The point thing is
:40:26. > :40:30.they posted a live BOt may not be making much money yet, it is all
:40:30. > :40:34.about the belief of making money in the future. Essentially they can
:40:34. > :40:39.read our new addiction and find ways to profit from that. The
:40:39. > :40:43.addiction to Twitter is different to Facebook, and they were using
:40:43. > :40:54.one more than the other? This is the crack of on-line addiction,
:40:54. > :40:58.Twitter is it. For a lot of people like me. When the last bank was
:40:58. > :41:02.floated and then it was sickness and gone down. Not just for all the
:41:02. > :41:05.addictions but the stock market more broadly, that will have a big
:41:05. > :41:10.impact. Interesting we have just been talking about confidence,
:41:10. > :41:14.something like Twitter floating a new contract, seven years old, this
:41:14. > :41:19.will lead to business confidence. If you want to basically see 21st
:41:19. > :41:26.century innovation and growth and business building in action. Things
:41:26. > :41:33.like Twitter are encouraging. Twitter won't be like that with Pin
:41:33. > :41:37.to Rest and all these other things. The signal moment it represents,
:41:37. > :41:42.not just because it is a big tech, it is the tech ifpt PO we have been
:41:42. > :41:48.waiting for. We are talking about the Royal Mail floating, it makes
:41:48. > :41:53.£200 million a year. This company makes reportedly £330 million. It
:41:53. > :41:58.is about the same as the Royal Mail in business terms. If 25 years
:41:58. > :42:01.hence we are still twittering you will guarantee that the scale of
:42:01. > :42:07.the revenue will be fast. What is the scale of growth? It is doubling
:42:07. > :42:13.its user base and tweets every year to eight months in the seven years.
:42:13. > :42:17.The critical question is those 450 billion tweets that they have
:42:17. > :42:20.already sent sitting in databases, who will use them, how will they
:42:20. > :42:28.already sent sitting in databases, use the information and can it
:42:28. > :42:41.Monetorise. That is to do with vive -- monitorise, that is to do with
:42:41. > :42:50.advertising. That is what we make a deal with every operating system we
:42:50. > :42:55.use. So the cards are packed? We are analysing our data and we don't
:42:55. > :43:00.mind making that because we get a lot from it. You might want to have
:43:00. > :43:01.your pen and paper handy for the end of the programme. First the
:43:01. > :44:33.papers: That is all tonight. Tonight's
:44:33. > :44:38.Twitter news meant we were unable to show our film from China.
:44:38. > :44:44.Apologies for that. Before we go the Government's communications
:44:44. > :44:48.centre, GCHQ, has issued a cryptic code and invited potential recruits
:44:48. > :44:52.to break it. We asked our crack team to set a challenge of our own.
:44:52. > :44:57.There is a coded message hidden in our closing credits and tomorrow
:44:57. > :45:00.night we will name the first person to tweet it with the hashtag
:45:00. > :45:01.Newsnight.