:00:09. > :00:16.Vote for us and get cheaper electricity. The Labour leader has
:00:16. > :00:19.laid out the offer he will make they next election.
:00:19. > :00:24.His fans all seemed to like the idea of a big price freeze, but can
:00:24. > :00:28.Governments do that sort of thing any longer? And do we really want
:00:28. > :00:37.to end up shivering in the dark if it all goes wrong.
:00:37. > :00:40.If Shadow Business Secretary ant explain how it will work he will
:00:40. > :00:44.lag your pipes for you. The cream of science will tell us
:00:44. > :00:47.what we know and don't know about global warming, we will make sense
:00:47. > :00:54.of their findings with the man who wrote the book on climate change
:00:54. > :00:59.economics, Lord Stern. And enter the love-hunter, this man's job is
:00:59. > :01:08.to find brides for the wealthy in a country where there is a shortage
:01:08. > :01:12.of young women. The annual Labour Party Conference
:01:12. > :01:18.wraps up tomorrow. Ed Miliband, who hopes to be taking on the Tennessee
:01:18. > :01:21.of Downing Street in a -- tenancy of Downing Street in a year-and-a-
:01:21. > :01:27.half or so has made promise of what he will do if he gets there. One of
:01:27. > :01:31.those was he will freeze the cost of energy for two years if he gets
:01:31. > :01:38.the job, even though many of his party think he's not up to it. He
:01:38. > :01:41.attempted some self-deprication, if you can do that with thousands
:01:41. > :01:45.watching you as you go about the stage. Be warned, there is, as you
:01:45. > :01:51.would expect at such a glamorous occasion flash photography.
:01:52. > :01:56.This afternoon we learned that the next general election will see a
:01:56. > :01:59.real choice about the cost of living, all right, but today the
:01:59. > :02:10.Labour leader gave us very different solutions.
:02:10. > :02:12.He started humble. It was local election day, Ella rode past me on
:02:12. > :02:20.her bike, she fell off. I election day, Ella rode past me on
:02:20. > :02:26.helped...it is not funny...I helped her up and afterwards she called me
:02:26. > :02:32.something I had never been called before ...she said I was, an
:02:32. > :02:38."action hero"! Why are you laughing? That was. Just a joke, it
:02:38. > :02:42.was one of his themes, this speech showed that a Prime Minister Ed
:02:42. > :02:45.Miliband would be very acty. Are you satisfied with the country that
:02:45. > :02:49.shuts out the voices of millions of ordinary people and listening only
:02:49. > :02:53.to the powerful? Are you satisfied with a country standing apart as
:02:53. > :02:57.to the powerful? Are you satisfied two nations? Well I'm not satisfied,
:02:57. > :03:03.we're Britain, we're better than this. Better than this, but faced
:03:03. > :03:07.with a major problem, people's earnings no longer match growth.
:03:07. > :03:10.What I'm about to tell you is the most important thing I will say
:03:10. > :03:16.today about what needs to change about our country. They used to say
:03:16. > :03:19.a rising tide lifts all boats, now the rising tide just seems to lift
:03:19. > :03:24.the yachts. Now I have a question, now I have got a question for you
:03:24. > :03:31.ladies and gentlemen, do the Tories get it? No. Come on, I didn't hear
:03:31. > :03:38.you. Do the Tories get it? NO! OK, that's better. To prove he got it,
:03:38. > :03:42.Ed Miliband unveiled this: We need successful energy companies in
:03:42. > :03:48.Britain. We need them to invest for the future. But you need to get a
:03:48. > :03:50.vair deal, and frankly -- fair deal, and frankly, there will never be
:03:51. > :03:57.public consent for that investment unless you do get a fair deal. If
:03:57. > :03:59.we win that election in 2015, the next Labour Government will freeze
:03:59. > :04:03.we win that election in 2015, the gas and electricity prices until
:04:03. > :04:09.the start of 2017. APPLAUSE
:04:09. > :04:13.That's what I mean by a Government that fights for you, that's what I
:04:13. > :04:17.mean when I say, Britain can do better than this.
:04:18. > :04:21.APPLAUSE The Labour leader was talking to
:04:21. > :04:26.the hall, and to a country struggling with Energy Bills. If it
:04:26. > :04:30.works it broadens his appeal beyond Labour folk. And comedians. Critics
:04:30. > :04:33.warned immediately of energy blackouts, but Ed Miliband had
:04:33. > :04:37.drawn a fresh dividing line with the Government. He would draw
:04:37. > :04:41.another. We will say to private developers, you can't just sit on
:04:41. > :04:45.land, and refuse to build, we will give them a very clear message,
:04:45. > :04:51.either use the land or lose the land. That is what the next Labour
:04:51. > :04:55.Government will do. We have got our party back Neil Kinnock said when
:04:55. > :04:59.Ed Miliband became leader, and today he was very happy again. Ed
:04:59. > :05:03.Miliband judges that the country has shifted left, in his speech he
:05:03. > :05:07.moved from policies on to personality. If you want to know
:05:07. > :05:12.the difference between me and David Cameron, here is an easy way to
:05:12. > :05:18.remember it, when it was Murdoch versus the McCanns he took the side
:05:18. > :05:24.of Murdoch. When it was a tobacco lobby versus the cancer charities,
:05:24. > :05:27.he took the side of the tobacco loby, when it was millionaires and
:05:27. > :05:31.tax cut and the Bedroom Tax, he took the side of the millionaires,
:05:31. > :05:35.come to think of it, here is an even easier way to remember it,
:05:35. > :05:38.David Cameron was the Prime Minister who introduced the Bedroom
:05:38. > :05:43.Tax, I will be the Prime Minister who repeals the Bedroom Tax. You
:05:44. > :05:47.have got the gist of Ed Miliband's pitch. Under him Britain will be
:05:47. > :05:51.better than under the Tories. Tucked away in this crowd, some on
:05:51. > :05:56.Labour's right worried at a speech that nobbles big business, big
:05:56. > :06:00.energy and private developers' land, but barely mentions schools and
:06:00. > :06:02.welfare reform. It played very well in the hall, a lot of people out
:06:02. > :06:05.welfare reform. It played very well there are very happy, how did it
:06:05. > :06:09.play across the country, on bringing down the deficit there was
:06:09. > :06:13.a paragraph, but not much more. On party reform and reforming the
:06:13. > :06:16.links with the unions, yes he mentioned it, but he turned it into
:06:16. > :06:21.a joke, for a lot of people it is not a joke. This guy's laughing too,
:06:21. > :06:25.Miliband's speechwriter. Did you write it all? Ed writes everything.
:06:25. > :06:30.Happy because in fighting energy companies they think they are on
:06:30. > :06:35.the right side of public opinion. On living standards Ed Miliband's
:06:35. > :06:39.speech may appeal widely, but by leaving unaddressed other areas,
:06:39. > :06:42.today the Labour leader didn't stray far from his comfort zone. In
:06:42. > :06:46.the general election just 20 months away, we will learn if enough of
:06:46. > :06:51.the electorate also finds his vision comfortable.
:06:51. > :06:58.The Shadow Business Secretary Chuka Umunna joins us now from Brighton.
:06:58. > :07:05.Good evening Jeremy. How are you. I'm all right. How much will this
:07:05. > :07:09.policy cost? Which one are you talking about the freeze on energy
:07:09. > :07:13.prices. The capping of energy prices? It will cost the big six
:07:13. > :07:18.energy companies, the House of Commons estimates, about £4.5
:07:18. > :07:23.billion, we think they can more than afford that given that we
:07:23. > :07:28.estimate they have been overcharging customers in the
:07:28. > :07:32.region of £7 billion. You know what the wholesale price of energy will
:07:32. > :07:37.be? We have done the estimates, and look, what this is about and let me
:07:37. > :07:41.put this in context, your viewers Jeremy are facing the biggest cost
:07:41. > :07:46.of living crisis in a generation. That has been illustrating itself
:07:46. > :07:50.in the fall of in pay, we have had the second biggest drop in pay in
:07:50. > :07:55.the G20. Your viewers on average have sustained a £1,500 pay cut. We
:07:55. > :08:00.have seen energy prices hitting people, they are paying £300 more
:08:00. > :08:04.in bills, and clobbered by the rail firms as well. The question is do
:08:04. > :08:07.you stand back or seek to do something about this? I have
:08:07. > :08:10.obviously seen the package talking about left and right-wing, I don't
:08:10. > :08:14.think viewers care whether it is left or right-wing, all they know
:08:14. > :08:18.that in many respects they have been working harder than ever
:08:18. > :08:21.before over the last few years, they are paid less and costs are
:08:21. > :08:25.increasing. They want a party that are going to make a difference.
:08:25. > :08:32.They will want the lights being on. If the consequence of your...That
:08:32. > :08:36.Is nonsense and put about the large energy companies, you will not get
:08:36. > :08:40.them coming out today massively welcoming these proposals. It is a
:08:40. > :08:42.tough package for them. We have to consider what is in the national
:08:42. > :08:45.interest, what is the best thing for the majority of people in this
:08:45. > :08:49.country. The idea that the lights are going out. We know they have
:08:49. > :08:53.been underinvest anything our energy needs over the last 15 years
:08:53. > :08:58.or so. The idea that having a freeze that comes into effect if
:08:58. > :09:01.there is a Labour Government in 2015 and will be temporary and
:09:01. > :09:08.carry on to January 2017, the idea that is going to cause the lights
:09:08. > :09:13.to go out is patently absurd. Patently absurd. And you pose as
:09:13. > :09:18.the party friendly to business? Look at what we have done today, in
:09:18. > :09:22.terms of the business rates. The business rates that many of our
:09:22. > :09:26.businesses are telling us are clobbering them. That is going to
:09:27. > :09:31.help 98% of businesses in this country. Why should an energy
:09:31. > :09:34.company do business in Britain? We are incredibly pro-business. Why
:09:34. > :09:38.should an energy company do business in Britain if effectively
:09:38. > :09:41.you are confiscating their profits? Well with the greatest of respect,
:09:41. > :09:45.we are not confiscating their profits, but we have seen market
:09:45. > :09:50.failure in the energy industry. There isn't enough competition,
:09:50. > :09:54.Which? Has just brought out figures recently showing that overcharging
:09:54. > :09:57.has cost consumers £3.9 billion. What we're trying to ensure is
:09:57. > :10:01.there is more rigorous competition, and you have a market working for
:10:01. > :10:05.people. I don't think that is an anti-business thing at all. If you
:10:05. > :10:07.want a God functioning competitive market, you have got to make -- a
:10:07. > :10:11.good functioning competitive market you have to make sure there is
:10:11. > :10:15.rigorous competition and the consumer is getting a fair deal.
:10:16. > :10:20.You are going to sit there and tell us there will be guaranteed no
:10:20. > :10:24.consequences for such a cap. You can guarantee that the lights will
:10:24. > :10:27.definitely remain on, and businesses will continue to invest
:10:27. > :10:31.in the way they have been previously investing? Well look the
:10:31. > :10:34.fact is if you look at investment, the majority of investment hasn't
:10:34. > :10:37.been in terms of developing our energy need. The majority of
:10:37. > :10:42.investment has not been coming from the big six. Now the reason that we
:10:42. > :10:49.are seeking to do this price freeze is to allow us time to put in place
:10:49. > :10:53.a new regulatory architecture, we said we will abolish Ofgem. This
:10:53. > :10:59.will allow 20 months for us to put in place to replace it to sort out
:10:59. > :11:04.the energy market to get a better deal for viewers. Ultimately you
:11:04. > :11:07.are talking about what this means for businesses. If people are being
:11:07. > :11:11.squeezed they are not spending money in our businesses. We need to
:11:11. > :11:16.ensure, not only as I said people are seeing their pay go further, as
:11:16. > :11:18.the economy rises, the proceeds of that will be shared by more people
:11:18. > :11:25.the economy rises, the proceeds of not just the top 1%, that is a good
:11:25. > :11:29.thing for businesses. If you are were watching last night, if you
:11:29. > :11:34.could see through the rainforest which our Australian director
:11:34. > :11:36.imagines to be what a conservatory looks like. You will be familiar
:11:37. > :11:41.with the idea if Labour wants to win the next election it has to
:11:41. > :11:43.appeal to people who have conservatories or aspire to have
:11:43. > :11:47.them. There is another set of beliefs that Labour doesn't need to
:11:48. > :11:53.do any such thing, that it can just rely on the core votes, 35% or so
:11:53. > :11:57.of the electorate. Ed Miliband doesn't need to look good in
:11:57. > :12:02.Dorking as long as he gets the vote out in Dalston.
:12:02. > :12:06.What proportion of the vote does Ed Miliband need to become Prime
:12:07. > :12:10.Minister? The answer is, it depends. It depends on what the other
:12:10. > :12:16.parties do. Our starting point has to be the position that the parties
:12:16. > :12:19.were in the 2010 general election and to jog our memories we have
:12:19. > :12:30.written the results over there on the sea over there.
:12:30. > :12:38.That was their worst showing since Michael Foot was leader.
:12:38. > :12:42.So that is how they were. A lot has changed since then. Since being in
:12:42. > :12:45.Government the Lib Dems have paid a big electoral price for their
:12:46. > :12:50.coalition with the Conservatives. Their vote has gone down by more
:12:50. > :12:56.than half. Have those votes gone to Labour, we ask? And the Tories have
:12:56. > :13:00.had their own problems, UKIP has taken 10-11% of the votes at the
:13:00. > :13:03.moment. Mash all that together and it could mean that Ed Miliband gets
:13:03. > :13:07.to Downing Street with 35% of the popular vote. It is quite possible
:13:07. > :13:10.for Labour to be the largest party on around 35% of the vote. It
:13:10. > :13:13.for Labour to be the largest party wouldn't have an outright majority
:13:13. > :13:20.on that, it would need to coalition with the liberals or some other
:13:20. > :13:23.arrangement, to win outright it needs 38-40%. But 35% could just
:13:23. > :13:25.arrangement, to win outright it make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.
:13:25. > :13:28.There is a long way to the next general election, and Ed Miliband
:13:28. > :13:31.isn't about to kick back in a deck chair and hope nothing changes,
:13:31. > :13:34.afterall the UKIP vote could collapse, the Lib Dems could
:13:34. > :13:39.recover and then he would be in trouble. No, what he's doing is
:13:39. > :13:44.pursuing a demographic he thinks can add to his core vote without
:13:44. > :13:48.alienating his core voters. Who are these precious people? Young
:13:48. > :13:52.families with children. For a start this group notices Government
:13:52. > :13:56.policy more in matters like health and education, plus, pollsters say
:13:56. > :14:04.they have fewer political loyalties, meaning they are up for grabs. We
:14:04. > :14:08.can see how Labour is trying to engage them, policies on child
:14:08. > :14:11.cautious wrap-around school hours, more house building. Don't expect
:14:11. > :14:16.the coalition to leave Labour to it, they are making their own pitch for
:14:16. > :14:21.this important demographic. Last week Nick Clegg promising free
:14:21. > :14:25.school meals and the help on buying housing. The next election could be
:14:25. > :14:28.decided on who gets the best policies to attract young families
:14:28. > :14:31.with children. Here to assess what Ed Miliband's
:14:31. > :14:35.speech can tell us about Labour's election strategy we have the
:14:35. > :14:39.deputy editor of the New Statesman Helen Lewis, and from the
:14:39. > :14:43.independent on Sunday, John Rentoul, who do you think he was talking to?
:14:43. > :14:48.He was talking to the Labour Party in the hall. To a large extent.
:14:48. > :14:59.Obviously he was addressing the nation, you always have to address
:14:59. > :15:02.two audiences at once. I think he was. Chuka Umunna didn't like the
:15:02. > :15:05.left-wing terms but he was addressing them outside. Did you
:15:05. > :15:09.feel he was going for the core vote? No I don't think he did, the
:15:09. > :15:13.energy section was intended to, in focus groups that goes very well,
:15:13. > :15:17.people are really concerned about energy prices. Maybe you might
:15:17. > :15:20.remember the 1970s? No policy is without risk. They have decided to
:15:20. > :15:24.pick this fight, it is one they think they can win. That is what
:15:24. > :15:27.politics is about, it is about picking fights. It is a fight that
:15:27. > :15:31.suggests that the Labour Party doesn't understand business it
:15:31. > :15:36.doesn't understand markets and profit motive, it doesn't approve
:15:36. > :15:42.of the profit motive. It is just, it may have a superficial appeal,
:15:42. > :15:46.but if people think that the Labour Party doesn't understand business
:15:46. > :15:49.and how you make wealth in this country. Your analysis there is to
:15:50. > :15:52.the right of the Conservative Party, David Cameron acknowledges there is
:15:52. > :15:55.a problem with the energy market and having talks with the
:15:55. > :16:00.significant six energy companies, he has a vague wafflely plan about
:16:00. > :16:03.offering the lowest tarrif, this is concrete action on that. He
:16:03. > :16:08.understands focus groups complain about energy prices, of course they
:16:08. > :16:11.do, that doesn't mean that focus groups, once they have had a chance
:16:11. > :16:15.to think about it think you can defy the laws of supply and demand.
:16:15. > :16:18.It doesn't matter, if you are successful in forming a Government,
:16:18. > :16:20.if you make a successful calculation, once you get to
:16:21. > :16:24.Government it really doesn't matter what people think? You have to get
:16:24. > :16:28.into Government. In order to get into Government there is no use in
:16:28. > :16:31.just appealing to people who have a very simplistic idea of how the
:16:31. > :16:37.economy work, you have it appeal to the centre ground to people who
:16:37. > :16:41.actually understand aspiration and wealth making. Conservatory owners,
:16:41. > :16:45.obviously? Who will recognise, even if they complain about energy
:16:45. > :16:49.prices that price freezes on the big six companies is just not going
:16:49. > :16:52.to work. I think people can be guilty of applying different
:16:52. > :16:55.standards to Labour, you are already hearing complaints about
:16:55. > :16:58.the free childcare and the free breakfast club, which you just
:16:58. > :17:01.didn't hear around the Lib Dems and their plan for free school meals,
:17:01. > :17:05.there is a big problem around Labour that everybody instantly
:17:05. > :17:08.jumps to where is the money? The other thing is, there were two
:17:08. > :17:12.things they were being taxed with before this conference began, one
:17:13. > :17:17.was shortage of policies, the other was Ed Miliband does not look like
:17:17. > :17:20.a Prime Minister. Now do you think, let's deal with the second one,
:17:20. > :17:23.does he look like a Prime Minister? I think that there is a huge
:17:23. > :17:25.advantage in being Prime Minister that you get to stand in front of
:17:25. > :17:28.the door and that automatically makes you look like a Prime
:17:28. > :17:31.Minister, he doesn't have that. I thought that was a confident
:17:31. > :17:37.performance, I thought even the panto bits which are normally full-
:17:37. > :17:40.body cringe were fine. He was self- deprecate, he charged through the
:17:40. > :17:44.things he knows are a problem, I thought it was confident. I was
:17:44. > :17:48.suffering from a full-body cringe almost for all 63 minutes. I mean
:17:48. > :17:51.you know it is an unfair question as to whether he looks like a Prime
:17:51. > :17:54.Minister. He could be Prime Minister, he would be a slightly
:17:54. > :18:00.peculiar one. What do you mean? Well, I mean he had this odd line
:18:00. > :18:04.about the troops in Afghanistan saying some of them were young
:18:04. > :18:11.enough to be his children. He was trying to remind us he's not as
:18:11. > :18:14.young as he looks. He does look young and inexperienced, even
:18:14. > :18:16.though he's one of the most experienced politicians in Britain
:18:16. > :18:20.today. The Kenyan President said this
:18:20. > :18:24.evening that the outrage and hostage taking at the shopping mall
:18:24. > :18:28.in his capital is over. We have ashamed and defeated the attackers,
:18:28. > :18:34.claiming that security forces had shot five of them dead and detained
:18:34. > :18:39.11 others. Over 60 further people have been killed. Whether the thing
:18:40. > :18:44.is over is unclear, as is the precise identity of the attackers.
:18:44. > :18:50.The Foreign Ministry say they included a British woman. From the
:18:50. > :18:54.information that we have two or three Americans and I think so far
:18:54. > :19:00.I have heard of one Brit. The Brit was a British-born woman? A woman.
:19:00. > :19:07.She's I think done this many times before. And the Americans? The
:19:07. > :19:13.Americans from the information we have are young men. Richard Watson
:19:13. > :19:18.who knows a great deal about Al- Shabab and indeed other Islamic or
:19:18. > :19:25.Islamist organisations is with us now. Tell us about this White
:19:25. > :19:36.Widow? It is a reference to Matthew Leuenberger, a British convert to
:19:36. > :19:41.laem Amanda Lewthwaite, she's wantedor connections with others
:19:41. > :19:48.facing terrorism trials in Mombasa. Samantha was married to one of the
:19:48. > :19:54.7/7 bombers, Ellen Linstead, back in 2005. A source close to the
:19:54. > :20:03.original police investigation said they did look losely at Samantha
:20:03. > :20:12.Lewthwait EBacc in 2005 and they didn't find anything to suggest she
:20:12. > :20:16.was aware of her husband's murdous intentions. Could she be involved?
:20:16. > :20:20.The media is speculating very much about it today. Security forces are
:20:20. > :20:31.steering away from firm conclusions on it at the moment. They say there
:20:31. > :20:36.is precedent in Somalia of women getting involved in these suicide
:20:36. > :20:42.bombing. Usually females take part in these attacks, give logistic
:20:42. > :20:45.support, courier services or surveillance. What about the wider
:20:45. > :20:51.picture of westerners being involved in this sort of thing?
:20:51. > :20:57.Well this is what's very troubling for western security agencies. It
:20:57. > :21:01.is surpbtly assessed that 50 British nationals went out to
:21:01. > :21:03.Somalia to fight Al-Shabab. They post videos on-line, and some
:21:03. > :21:23.feature very strong British accents. A far greater number have travelled
:21:23. > :21:27.from America compared with Great Britain. A month ago a video was
:21:27. > :21:31.released on-line, featuring the stories of three young men from
:21:31. > :21:38.Minnesota, who travelled out to join Al-Shabab and died out there
:21:38. > :21:43.in fighting. The FBI began to investigate the cases, some of the
:21:43. > :21:49.young mujahideen were already active on the battlefields of Jihad,
:21:49. > :21:52.and relishing in the freedom to practice all the tenets of their
:21:52. > :21:59.and relishing in the freedom to face, including Jihad against the
:21:59. > :22:07.disbelievers. Thank you very much Richard.
:22:08. > :22:11.Now, it being just before 11.00pm, the future of the planet. On Friday
:22:11. > :22:15.we will hear what the world's most authoritative report has to say
:22:15. > :22:19.about climate change. So it is the moment for last-minute political
:22:19. > :22:25.wrangling. Scientists say they are more certain than ever about some
:22:25. > :22:29.aspects of climate change, but, and it is a critical but, there are
:22:29. > :22:34.fast things they don't know about how climate work. That will give
:22:34. > :22:39.ammunition to all those who say the whole phenomenon is greatly
:22:39. > :22:42.overblown. First this is about what we are likely to learn this week.
:22:42. > :22:45.Scientists say the planet is we are likely to learn this week.
:22:45. > :22:51.warming, and each and every one of us is playing a part in that.
:22:51. > :22:55.Friday's report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
:22:55. > :23:00.Change, the IPCC is the work of hundreds of experts. It is the
:23:00. > :23:03.first of a trilogy, this one on the state of climate science, the
:23:03. > :23:08.second and third come next year and look at likely impacts and what
:23:08. > :23:12.might be done about those. The report itself will be a huge
:23:12. > :23:16.technical tone, but it is the distillation of that, a summary for
:23:16. > :23:20.policy makers that will be chewed over and tweaked with Government
:23:20. > :23:23.officials alongside scientists in Stockholm this week. This is a
:23:23. > :23:30.final draft of that report, and it matters because it will form the
:23:30. > :23:36.basis of policy in future. The final draft says it is extremely
:23:36. > :23:40.likely that IPCC speak for 95% certain, that human influence on
:23:40. > :23:45.climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average
:23:45. > :23:50.surface temperatures from 1951-2010. But the report is expected to state
:23:50. > :23:55.clearly where there are gaps in knowledge or uncertainties. The
:23:55. > :23:59.most pressing of which is arguably the called slowdown or pause. The
:23:59. > :24:03.fact that global surface temperatures have not risen above
:24:03. > :24:10.the level recorded in 1998. For the last 15 years. How much is the plan
:24:10. > :24:14.the warming? In this graph the red area shows computer simulations of
:24:14. > :24:18.the global average temperature. The white line shows what is being
:24:18. > :24:22.recorded, with temperatures rising in recent years. In 1998, for
:24:22. > :24:28.reasons that scientists cannot yet explain, the warming paused. Those
:24:28. > :24:31.who are sceptical of climate science say this bolsters their
:24:31. > :24:35.position that the prevailing scientific view is wrong. It is one
:24:35. > :24:39.of the most fierce low debated areas of climate science.
:24:39. > :24:44.Many argue that the earth has turned to warm but that the heat
:24:44. > :24:51.has been absorbed by the oceans. There is a network of floating
:24:51. > :24:58.sensors on our oceans, even so data is incomplete. Half of the slowdown
:24:58. > :25:03.can be linked to the oceans, the other half to theing effect of
:25:03. > :25:07.volcanos and a less active sun. Scientists are not confident of the
:25:07. > :25:11.explanation. Over the last 150 years we have seen global
:25:11. > :25:15.temperatures increase by 0.8 degrees centigrade. In the last 15
:25:15. > :25:19.years temperatures haven't warmed warmed very much. It is a puzzle,
:25:19. > :25:24.we want to know why. We are beginning to understand the reasons
:25:24. > :25:29.why. But it is important to see the recent cause in the wider context
:25:29. > :25:32.of the problem, global surface temperatures are not the only
:25:32. > :25:38.of the problem, global surface important metric of climate change.
:25:38. > :25:44.We look to the seas rising, we see the ieds melting away. Then there
:25:44. > :25:51.is the model, scientists rely heavily on computer models
:25:51. > :25:54.attempting to forecast. There is high level of confidence that these
:25:54. > :25:58.have done a good job of modelling the warming of the second half of
:25:58. > :26:03.the 20th century. But not the pause in global surface temperatures of
:26:03. > :26:09.the past 15 years. Are the climate models wrong, and has climate
:26:09. > :26:12.change stopped. No, climate change has not stopped, we see similar
:26:12. > :26:18.pauses, like in the observations, what we understand is that on the
:26:18. > :26:20.one hand we have a warming influence from increasing
:26:20. > :26:24.greenhouse gases. On the other hand we have a cooling influence from
:26:24. > :26:32.small volcanic eruptions and a small decloin in solar activity.
:26:32. > :26:36.The third important -- declining in solar activity. As these temporary
:26:36. > :26:41.cooling factors subside the warming will come again. For the first time
:26:41. > :26:46.the report is expected to set out a carbon budget, the total reached
:26:46. > :26:53.across the globe we must stay below for any temperature rise to be less
:26:53. > :26:55.than 2 degrees, compared to industrial times. This is agreed by
:26:55. > :26:59.Government, and the draft says to have a reasonable chance of
:26:59. > :27:02.achieving this the total amount of carbon to be released is the
:27:02. > :27:08.equivalent of a trillion tonnes. We have already released half of that.
:27:08. > :27:14.Here I have eight little lumps of coal, each one representing 2500
:27:14. > :27:18.billion tonnes of fossil carbon. Before the fossil regulation, we
:27:18. > :27:26.had four million tonnes, eight lumps of goal underground, 250
:27:26. > :27:30.years to burn the first half trillion. Set for the next half in
:27:30. > :27:36.years to burn the first half three-to-five years, and the next
:27:36. > :27:43.part will take us over the argument. So the really big question is what
:27:43. > :27:46.will we do when all the carbon available underground waiting to be
:27:46. > :27:50.burned. The report is expected to describe clear signals of human
:27:50. > :27:54.influence on the climate. But with the higher extremes of warming now
:27:54. > :27:58.thought less likely, they will be scoping the detail for sceptics to
:27:58. > :28:02.argue that the case for climate change has been overstated and more
:28:02. > :28:16.clarity about uncertainties long overdue. With us is my guest to
:28:16. > :28:19.discuss that. Joining us from the University of Wisconsin we have the
:28:19. > :28:24.professor. It was suggested to us, not very
:28:24. > :28:29.long ago that the science of all this was settled, it is clearly not
:28:29. > :28:34.settled? Science is never settled of there was always open questions
:28:34. > :28:37.in science to further understand and as was highlighted in Susan's
:28:37. > :28:40.in science to further understand report there, there is exciting
:28:40. > :28:44.research questions to look at. But what is clear is that humans are
:28:44. > :28:51.having a significant influence on the climate and that is creating
:28:51. > :28:56.significant risks associated with changes to our weather systems, be
:28:56. > :29:00.that in the UK, the flods that we have seen in recent years -- floods
:29:00. > :29:05.we have seen in recent years, or heatwaves or risks to coastal
:29:05. > :29:12.infrastructure from sea level rises and storms. Not as extreme as
:29:12. > :29:17.predicted? As Susan mentioned in her report there are interesting
:29:17. > :29:23.questions as to what has happened to temperature over the last 15
:29:23. > :29:30.years or so. There is a lot of research looking into that. As
:29:30. > :29:37.clearly described, what is occurring is we have an underlying
:29:37. > :29:39.as a result of increases in greenhouse gas, and as a result
:29:39. > :29:48.there are fluctuations. You could see in the graph put up of the
:29:48. > :29:51.temperature over the 100 years there are times when the
:29:51. > :29:54.temperature has not gone up, but in fits and starts. It is like the
:29:54. > :29:58.stock market, things are up as well fits and starts. It is like the
:29:58. > :30:09.as down, but the overlying trend is one of an increase. What do you
:30:09. > :30:15.conclude from the the latest review, is the science settled? No, I don't
:30:15. > :30:17.believe the science is settled. I believe that there is a lot of
:30:17. > :30:21.things we don't understand and that believe that there is a lot of
:30:21. > :30:28.we need to concentrate more in understanding the natural climate
:30:28. > :30:34.system. Your guest just mentions, yes there is an underlying, slowly
:30:34. > :30:42.rising signal which is attributed by many to CO2 emission. On top of
:30:42. > :30:47.that superimposeed we have positive and negative trend regimes for
:30:47. > :30:51.global temperatures. What we see now is simply another one of those
:30:51. > :31:05.ray genomes, actually we were the first ones to identify it six years
:31:05. > :31:09.ago. It is not due to areosols and the fight between CO 2., it is the
:31:09. > :31:12.incertainly climate system, we have documented it in several
:31:12. > :31:16.publications and it is widely accepted. Doesn't the precautionary
:31:16. > :31:21.principle indicate that as you say, there has been an increase, would
:31:21. > :31:26.it not be sensible to take precautions? I'm not saying that we
:31:26. > :31:35.should not take precautions. When precautions? I'm not saying that we
:31:36. > :31:39.we claim that the warmth of the 1980s and 1990 has stopped. We
:31:39. > :31:43.simply say that the climate system has gone to a new regime where the
:31:43. > :31:52.temperature will level off or cool a little bit. It doesn't say that
:31:52. > :31:59.the low-rising long-term trend has been reversed. This is
:31:59. > :32:04.misunderstood. Now low-rising long- term trend is there, many think it
:32:04. > :32:08.is because of CO2 emissions, there is other possibilities. There is
:32:08. > :32:10.low circulation, there is all the activity, a combination of
:32:10. > :32:17.everything, we don't know for sure activity, a combination of
:32:17. > :32:24.what is the actual number. Wouldn't the sensible thing be to do is to
:32:24. > :32:28.hold our horses before we enter anything in hesitantly? That is
:32:28. > :32:34.what people are trying to play politics with the science are
:32:34. > :32:38.trying to some how manipulate by misrepresenting the state of the
:32:38. > :32:43.science. What the science is clear is if we can continue to equate
:32:43. > :32:47.greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are significantly
:32:47. > :32:54.increasing the risk of severe weather events around the world. It
:32:54. > :33:01.is the risk we want to aed void. That matter of causation is still
:33:01. > :33:05.hypothesis. I'm not sure which bit. The fact it is caused by human
:33:05. > :33:12.activity, you could say they run in parallel but you can't prove it? No,
:33:12. > :33:13.the fact that if you put more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,
:33:13. > :33:22.that causes an increase in carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,
:33:22. > :33:26.temperature. That is very settled. Where there are open questions, as
:33:26. > :33:34.described in the report, associated with the fluctuations on top of
:33:34. > :33:39.that. That doesn't deny the fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse
:33:39. > :33:43.gas. Let me turn to Lord Stern, his influential report on the economics
:33:43. > :33:50.of climate change in 2006 helped to set the direction of Government
:33:50. > :33:54.policy. What do you conclude on the basis of what we know about the
:33:54. > :33:59.slightly lower pace of change? That we have a major problem of risk
:33:59. > :34:05.management and that the report that is just coming out on Friday has
:34:05. > :34:14.reaffirmed that there is a strong trend, that the risks are very
:34:14. > :34:20.large and this missing from the discussion so far is the weight and
:34:21. > :34:25.play. The dangers of delay happen if you wait you have a ratchet
:34:25. > :34:29.effect of greenhouse gases coming through from human active and
:34:29. > :34:33.raising the stock, the concentration that greenhouse gases
:34:33. > :34:37.are in the atmosphere with. It is a ratchet effect and it is hard to
:34:37. > :34:45.get the CO2 out. There is a second reason. If you wait you look in
:34:45. > :34:50.high-carbon infrastruck stuer and capital. It is not --
:34:50. > :34:53.infrastructure and capital. It is not that things aren't clear, they
:34:53. > :34:58.are very clear at the moment, but it is a dangerous strategy. If you
:34:58. > :35:03.were writing your report based on what we will learn on Friday, would
:35:03. > :35:06.you write the same report? I the science looks more risky than when
:35:06. > :35:11.we wrote the report. What do you mean by risky? Frpbgt the dangers
:35:11. > :35:16.of higher temperatures -- The dangers of higher temperatures
:35:16. > :35:20.coming through more quickly may be larger. The emissions were building
:35:20. > :35:24.up faster than we thought at the time. The emissions to greenhouse
:35:24. > :35:30.gases, some of the things have been happening faster than we thought.
:35:30. > :35:33.And some things slower? Basically most of the big things have been
:35:33. > :35:38.happening faster than we thought in terms it of those effects of global
:35:38. > :35:45.warming coming through. There has been a plateau for about 15 years,
:35:45. > :35:49.but that is the story of fluctuations and I thought the
:35:49. > :35:54.report and the doctor made very clear. You haven't heard today any
:35:54. > :35:58.reason to suppose, and you won't hear on Friday any reason to
:35:58. > :36:02.suppose that there is anything other than a strong underloiing
:36:02. > :36:07.trend. Your report made it seem like a matter of life and death
:36:07. > :36:11.urgency? It is, if we are to have a chance toled holeing two degrees,
:36:11. > :36:16.we are going to have to cut emissions radically. Global
:36:16. > :36:24.emissions by a factor of we will over two,000, two ,500, over the
:36:24. > :36:31.next few years. Despite the fact that it seems to have changed very
:36:31. > :36:37.likely -- light low, you are prepared to people there. The
:36:37. > :36:40.admissions have gone up five-times faster than we thought. And
:36:40. > :36:45.concentrations have too. Some of the effects, like the melting of
:36:45. > :36:50.glass Kerrs are coming through faster than I thought. You have a
:36:50. > :36:57.minor adjustment in the upper end of the possiblities, but you have
:36:57. > :37:04.other things happening that suggests those problems and the
:37:04. > :37:09.risks we described are there. Do you think you oversold it? I have
:37:09. > :37:15.undersold the story. I have given you big reasons why we should worry
:37:15. > :37:20.more. The the cuts coming through more quickly. There is something
:37:20. > :37:25.ols too which wasn't raised in the discussion of the science is the
:37:25. > :37:31.science models leave out some important risks which they can't
:37:31. > :37:33.really capture in the models yet. Which scientists know and could
:37:33. > :37:41.have a strong reason to suppose could be worrying. Two important
:37:41. > :37:44.ones, the thawing of the thermofrost and the release of
:37:44. > :37:49.methane, that could be a huge effect because of the vast qant
:37:49. > :37:55.toes of me tain, and seabed me tain -- quantities of me thain. Those
:37:55. > :37:58.are hard to capture in a formal way. But the scientists have strong
:37:58. > :38:11.reason to believe that those effects could be very big. You are
:38:11. > :38:17.a worried man, even since the report. Since then we have had the
:38:17. > :38:21.greenest Government ever do you think that? It is hard to sustain
:38:21. > :38:30.that proposition, let's be clear, they stuck to the climate change
:38:30. > :38:35.legislation we have the clear carbon budget associated with that
:38:35. > :38:39.legislation. But they have introduced some uncertainty in the
:38:39. > :38:42.degree of commitment. One of them is that they will review the fourth
:38:42. > :38:47.degree of commitment. One of them carbon budget, our targeting for
:38:47. > :38:51.the 2020s, that gives uncertainty. That kind of uncertainty is where
:38:51. > :38:55.they are going and restricting investment, it is a dampener on
:38:56. > :39:00.investment. Uncertainty about where Government policy is going has, I
:39:00. > :39:07.think, been created by this Government. For reasons I describe
:39:07. > :39:13.in reviewing the carbon budget, but it is revealed they are not united
:39:14. > :39:17.internally as well. That frightens investment away, that is why we
:39:17. > :39:21.have small margins of capacity in the UK. Left to its own devices
:39:21. > :39:26.nature will very often reassert itself, life goes on. In China
:39:26. > :40:02.human intervention has created a massive shortage of
:40:02. > :40:06.human intervention has created a expected to get hitched. In China
:40:06. > :40:13.the people get married in block, the brides wear simple costume and
:40:13. > :40:19.the bride groom in dark clothes. Traditional match makers used to do
:40:19. > :40:24.the job now mums and dads are playing Cupid. Every month public
:40:24. > :40:30.parks are filled by anxious parents, hawking what are effectively their
:40:30. > :40:35.children's CVs. Many look in advance and many are here without
:40:35. > :40:39.their son's knowledge. This mum, son to a young energy is keen to
:40:39. > :40:45.talk. Why is it so difficult to find someone to marry, you are good
:40:45. > :40:49.looking and have a good job? TRANSLATION: Thanks for the
:40:49. > :40:54.compliment. I think my prospects aren't that good. It would take me
:40:54. > :41:06.200 years to buy a department here, eating and drinking, just work.
:41:06. > :41:14.Lack of cash is one problem for would-be groom, the other is a
:41:14. > :41:19.critical shortage of women. In the late 70s the Chinese Government
:41:19. > :41:21.introduced the called one-child policy, designed to curb population
:41:21. > :41:25.growth, but it backfired. In policy, designed to curb population
:41:25. > :41:32.Chinese culture male children have always been more prized. Ultimately
:41:32. > :41:38.this led to a wave of illegal, sex- selective abortions and in extreme
:41:38. > :41:43.cases female infanticide. As a result analysts say that by the end
:41:43. > :41:59.of this decade there will be at least 24 million excess men. This
:41:59. > :42:14.is a mass speed dating event. If the girl accepts the red rose the
:42:14. > :42:17.man is allowed to sit down. The first thing that people do when
:42:17. > :42:22.they come to the matchmaking event is post their profile on the wall.
:42:22. > :42:26.You can see their candidate number, their age, their height which, is
:42:26. > :42:31.absolutely crucial here in China, and their education. This guy has
:42:31. > :42:37.been to university, he's a CEO, this man next to him a high school
:42:37. > :42:45.lever. TRANSLATION: There is a lot of competition, the girls are quite
:42:45. > :42:55.demanding and they prefer tall guys. Some girls rejected my rose because
:42:55. > :43:02.I wasn't their Mr Right. It is all a bit humiliating and
:43:02. > :43:06.time-consuming. That's why China's wealthiest bachelors contract out
:43:06. > :43:21.the search for a spouse. They employ a love-hunter! Peng Tai is
:43:21. > :43:29.taking me shopping, not for clothes, we're looking for girls.
:43:29. > :43:32.TRANSLATION: If I meet a very beautiful girl who meets
:43:32. > :43:35.requirements I will watch her for a very long time. I don't really care
:43:35. > :43:46.what the women think, this is what I do. It is my job. Basically I'm
:43:46. > :43:51.after those girls who have nice skin, nice white skin and above
:43:51. > :44:01.160cms in height. We certainly don't want one with a sour face. If
:44:01. > :44:06.he find his richest clients a miss right, he could earn ten -- a Miss
:44:06. > :44:14.Right, he could earn tens of thousands of pounds.
:44:14. > :44:19.But as his boss explains, these billionares are a picky bunch. One
:44:19. > :44:23.sent the love hunters to nine cities to trawl through 10,000
:44:24. > :44:27.girls. TRANSLATION: We have clients asking
:44:27. > :44:36.for the girl to look like celebrities, such as the lead
:44:36. > :44:41.actress in the film crouching tiger hidden dragon. Someone else wanted
:44:41. > :44:46.the girl who looked like one of the country's top TV presenters.
:44:46. > :44:50.This village in the mountainous south is a world away from the
:44:51. > :44:57.maddening crowds of the Meg ga cities.
:44:57. > :45:02.These men aged 30 and 28 are both unmatter he had I don't. Across
:45:02. > :45:08.China there are more and more villages like theirs, filled with
:45:08. > :45:23.single men, they call them "bare branch" because they can't continue
:45:23. > :45:26.the family tree. TRANSLATION: The girls look forward for a better
:45:27. > :45:34.life in the city, they can marry out. For us boys it is different,
:45:34. > :45:38.we have to carry on the family name. Marriage is traditionally the
:45:38. > :45:45.symbol of maturity in China, many don't treat unmarried men as adults,
:45:45. > :45:49.regardless of their age. TRANSLATION: I don't want to come
:45:49. > :45:54.home sometimes, once I get back here they keep saying you are owed
:45:54. > :46:06.enough now, why don't you find a girlfriend. At one extreme of
:46:06. > :46:10.China's atomised society, men can pick or choose their mate, at the
:46:11. > :46:21.other end, back in the bachelor villages, there is no plaus at all.
:46:21. > :46:33.It is the shortage of brides that could undermine China's future.
:46:33. > :46:38.More of that report on Our World on the BBC News channel at 9.30 on
:46:39. > :46:44.Saturday night. Time for one last piece of news from the UN in New
:46:44. > :46:49.York. As we went on air, Hassan Rouhani of Iran has told the UN
:46:49. > :46:54.General Assembly that Iran is prepared to engage in nuclear
:46:54. > :46:59.negotiations that are time-bound and results orientated. He said
:46:59. > :47:01.that nuclear weapons and other weapons of weapons of mass
:47:01. > :47:10.destruction weapons of mass destruction and -- other weapons of
:47:10. > :47:16.mass destruction, and he said nothing can't be resolved without a
:47:16. > :47:19.rejection of violence. There is no meeting with President Obama and
:47:19. > :47:23.the world's picture editors will have to wait for the historic
:47:24. > :47:27.handshake. That is it for tonight, no question which were the most
:47:27. > :47:33.watchable pictures to emerge from the conference today. It happened
:47:33. > :47:36.when Damian McBride's pubisher took exception to a protestor trying to
:47:36. > :47:41.get into the back of an interview with the man. Sussex Police are
:47:41. > :47:45.taking a dim view, apparently. It is not the first and it won't be
:47:45. > :47:51.the last time that the background is more interesting than the
:47:51. > :47:56.foreground. David Cameron will become Prime Minister in the next
:47:56. > :48:00.few days, probably on Friday and Saturday. The parent company of
:48:00. > :48:05.Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy as the subsidiaries
:48:05. > :48:09.basically wind down. Police say they hope somebody burdened with
:48:09. > :48:13.information. Tell me more about Michael Jackson. Knock it off. Full
:48:13. > :48:16.of Andy Murray fans.