:00:11. > :00:15.Conservative Party is on the side of hard working people, there is a
:00:15. > :00:20.surprise, eh? Just in case anyone was confused, the Chancellor today
:00:20. > :00:23.promised to get tougher on the jobless. For the first time all
:00:23. > :00:26.long-term unemployed people, who are capable of work, will be
:00:26. > :00:33.required to do something in return for their benefits and to help them
:00:33. > :00:37.find work. The Boris Johnson fan club has turned out in force, he
:00:37. > :00:43.granted us an audience. I don't know how much a pint of milk costs,.
:00:43. > :00:47.Don't you think you should be concerned? How much is a loaf of
:00:47. > :00:51.bread? I'm not standing for election, you are.
:00:51. > :00:55.And Matthew D'Ancona tells the inside story of how the coalition
:00:55. > :01:01.began and its growing pains. George Osborne talk Duncan Smith wasn't up
:01:01. > :01:05.to the job and insufficient for cutting the fiscal deficit. Duncan
:01:05. > :01:08.Smith thought George Osborne was power mad. Also tonight can anyone
:01:08. > :01:13.account for why the US Government is about to shut up shop? I think
:01:13. > :01:20.it is time I explain to these good people, the upcoming fiscal cliff.
:01:20. > :01:24.Well I will try to tell you any way, why the US Government may well be
:01:24. > :01:30.about to shut down. The writer who humanised the
:01:30. > :01:44.turmoil in China with Wild Swans, Jung Chang on her latest work, the
:01:44. > :01:47.forbidding Empress Dowager. Good evening from the Conservative
:01:47. > :01:52.Party Conference in Manchester. The sun has started to rise above the
:01:52. > :01:55.hill was the way the Chancellor of the Exchequer put it today, no word
:01:55. > :02:01.on whether he had his hat on, but it was definitely not yet time for
:02:01. > :02:05."hip, hip hurray", it is clear, why take a chance when things start to
:02:05. > :02:08.get better will be a key part of the Conservative pitch at the next
:02:08. > :02:09.election. There were policy announcements too about work for
:02:09. > :02:13.welfare, for example, to tickle the announcements too about work for
:02:13. > :02:18.toes of the diminishing number of party members. The key question the
:02:18. > :02:24.party has to resolve is how to appeal beyond that unusual group.
:02:24. > :02:27.Ed Miliband thinks he can ror ral some of them with promises on
:02:28. > :02:31.energy, UKIP is trying to run others off. What should the party's
:02:31. > :02:39.offer with. Our political editor reports. All very blue in the Tory
:02:39. > :02:43.Conference hall this morning, but would it stay true blue over the
:02:43. > :02:50.next few days. There were pressures on the Conservative leadership
:02:50. > :02:54.today. A redder Ed tugging one way, and a purplish Nigel in the other.
:02:54. > :02:57.Tory MPs had different demands of their party today. They wanted the
:02:57. > :03:02.Tory MPs had different demands of Chancellor to show he understood
:03:02. > :03:08.the threat of Ed Miliband's price freeze, it may sound left-wing but
:03:08. > :03:11.it is incredibly centrist. They also wanted to show they understood
:03:11. > :03:15.the Nigel Farage threat. Throughout the day the party leadership
:03:15. > :03:19.insisted they wouldn't be pulled in different directions by those two
:03:19. > :03:23.men. But events today suggested they were. First up, the Chancellor,
:03:23. > :03:28.would he take Ed Miliband seriously or mock him? What do you think? Any
:03:28. > :03:32.politician would love to tell you that they can wave a magic wand and
:03:32. > :03:37.freeze your Energy Bill, perhaps with all this talk of blackouts we
:03:37. > :03:41.have been a bit unfair on Ed Miliband's leadership. We used to
:03:41. > :03:47.think lights on, but nobody's home, turns out we're only half right!
:03:47. > :03:50.George Osborne launched a new economic target, believing
:03:50. > :03:54.credibility in the economy still a problem for the Labour Party. And
:03:54. > :03:58.that they won't match him. I can tell you today that when we have
:03:58. > :04:02.dealt with Labour's deficit we will have a surplus in good times as
:04:02. > :04:06.insurance against difficult times ahead. As the Tory leader looked on,
:04:06. > :04:16.there was action on the cost of living, a fuel duty freeze, not as
:04:16. > :04:19.an ambitious as Ed Miliband power freeze, but there was the Tory
:04:19. > :04:24.possibility of tax cuts. Yes, if the recovery ised sustained then
:04:24. > :04:27.families will start to feel -- recovery is sustained, then
:04:27. > :04:32.families will start to feel better off. What matters is low mortgage
:04:32. > :04:37.rates, jobs and low taxes. George Osborne has to attract swing voters
:04:37. > :04:41.from Ed Miliband, but he also has UKIP to contend with, denying
:04:41. > :04:45.Tories victory in other seats. It is some force. This was UKIP leader,
:04:45. > :04:50.Nigel Farage's arrival at conference today. We are not just a
:04:50. > :04:53.sub-set, a rump of the Tory euro- sceptics, we are a genuine force in
:04:53. > :04:59.British politics and we're not going to go away. Farrage had this
:04:59. > :05:03.morning suggested Tories and UKIP candidates could strike back at the
:05:03. > :05:08.local level, to unite the right- wing vote. One MP appeared tempted
:05:08. > :05:14.by the UKIP colours. Why are you wearing a purple tie? Why are you
:05:14. > :05:18.wearing a red jumper? I like it? I like it. I'm a Conservative
:05:18. > :05:21.candidate, and always will be, if another party wants to endorse me,
:05:21. > :05:26.that is fine. George Osborne today ruled this out, but UKIP's leader
:05:26. > :05:32.remained defiant. There is room at local level for co-operations with
:05:33. > :05:36.Jacob Rees-Mogg or Peter Bone. He just left the hall saying he
:05:36. > :05:40.wouldn't countenance for it, he wants you to support his ticket as
:05:40. > :05:43.a Conservative? They just show how desperately out of date they are.
:05:43. > :05:49.They can't recognise that British politics is changing, there is a
:05:49. > :05:53.new player out there. It isn't just wanting out of the European Union,
:05:53. > :05:57.but different domestic policy. If Nigel Farage seemed tetchy, senior
:05:57. > :06:00.Tories are also tetchy, they thought today, Monday, would be the
:06:00. > :06:03.day they demonstrated they can walk and chew gum at the same time. Come
:06:03. > :06:07.day they demonstrated they can walk up with policies that appeal as
:06:07. > :06:12.much to their right-leaning, UKIP flank, as the centrist voters. But
:06:12. > :06:17.because of Nigel Farage's hoopla, his attendance at many fringe
:06:17. > :06:20.events, which are continuing even now, that was all overshadowed.
:06:20. > :06:24.Margaret Thatcher wouldn't have given up on UKIPers, and nor has
:06:24. > :06:26.this Tory leadership, they announced this conference as tough
:06:26. > :06:31.love on welfare and Europe that she announced this conference as tough
:06:31. > :06:34.would like and UKIP supporters would also like. Just as her appeal
:06:34. > :06:38.was on the centre ground of would also like. Just as her appeal
:06:38. > :06:43.politics, the Tory high-ups hope these policies appeal to swing
:06:43. > :06:47.voters too. So Tories eye up the centre ground. This research,
:06:47. > :06:51.admittedly from a while ago analysed people who voted Tory in
:06:51. > :06:55.2010 but gone to Labour since. Of those a quarter say they will not
:06:55. > :07:00.definitely vote Labour, Conservatives think they can get
:07:00. > :07:09.them back. This evening these queues were not
:07:09. > :07:17.for red Ed, nor Purple Nigel, but Blonde Boris. They must deal with
:07:17. > :07:25.his popularity, and Nigel's sceptic, they have to look to their left,
:07:25. > :07:27.right and behind them. A little earlier I popped a couple of
:07:27. > :07:31.hundred yards over to the conference hotel to speak to the
:07:31. > :07:36.Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. The other day you said that the sight
:07:36. > :07:41.of the Syria vote had made you think about going back into
:07:41. > :07:46.parliament? Yeah, but this is like, it was perfectly true. I thought it
:07:46. > :07:50.was a great parliamentary occasion. I thought actually the Prime
:07:50. > :07:55.Minister did brilliantly in setting out his case and the leader of the
:07:55. > :08:01.opposition did rather less well. But it is perfectly true that I,
:08:01. > :08:07.what I said, for the first time in five years I experienced a spasam
:08:08. > :08:13.of nostalgia. Just as on a beautiful autumn day, with a blue
:08:13. > :08:18.sky and the going soft underfoot I sometimes wish I was playing rugby.
:08:18. > :08:24.But that doesn't mean that I'm going to take up rugby again does
:08:24. > :08:28.it, I might do. You said you would think about the Prime Ministership
:08:28. > :08:31.if the ball came loose from the scrum, are you still bound in the
:08:31. > :08:37.scrum? Shall I tell you where the ball is now? Do, and tell us what
:08:37. > :08:44.position you are playing too? I'm somewhere in the front forwards and
:08:44. > :08:50....Is It a set piece scrum or what? What it is, it is a set piece scrum
:08:50. > :08:55.and we're going, we're driving for the line and the ball is at our
:08:55. > :08:59.feet, and the enemy is wheeling or trying desperately, pathetically,
:08:59. > :09:04.breaking the rules of the game to wheeling all over the place, we are
:09:04. > :09:07.going for a pushover try. Everybody in the Conservative Party I think
:09:07. > :09:12.now can see that we have less than two years to an election. I think
:09:12. > :09:19.seriously they can see that there is a risk, you know. That people
:09:19. > :09:24.who steered the ship of the economy on to the rocks will get back in
:09:25. > :09:29.charge. I think that would be a real pity. I speak as someone who
:09:29. > :09:33.is watching things really...You Think there is a real danger of it.
:09:33. > :09:39.You could lose the next election? You look at the polls and you look
:09:40. > :09:46.at the electoral mountain we have to climb and the Liberal Democrats'
:09:46. > :09:51.refusal to be democratic or indeed liberal and do the right thing and
:09:51. > :09:56.review the boundaries. That was completely wrong. The Tories have,
:09:56. > :09:59.it is grossly unjust the current electoral system. It will be
:09:59. > :10:05.difficult. But I think it is changing. I think the most
:10:05. > :10:11.remarkable political event of the last, or series of event in the
:10:11. > :10:17.last year or so has been the slow crumbling of the leader of the
:10:17. > :10:23.opposition as a viable replacement for David Cameron. I think
:10:23. > :10:29.genuinely, when I look at the options on the table for 2015 and
:10:29. > :10:37.you have got David Cameron, who I think fulfils the job brilliant low,
:10:37. > :10:41.or handing -- brilliantly, or handing the job back to Ed Miliband
:10:41. > :10:45.who was on the bridge of the ship when it hit the rocks in the most
:10:45. > :10:49.cataclysmic shipwreck of the last few years it is obvious. They have
:10:49. > :10:51.cataclysmic shipwreck of the last divineed that people are really
:10:51. > :10:59.feeling the pinch in terms of the cost of living? That is absolutely
:10:59. > :11:02.right. That is where the argument will turn. We Tories should be
:11:02. > :11:07.content to fight on that issue. You are the man who want to reduce the
:11:07. > :11:12.top rate of tax to 40p in the pound don't you? I'm also the man who cut
:11:13. > :11:19.council tax year after year in London. Which helps every household.
:11:19. > :11:25.Do you even know the cost of a pint of milk? About 80p or something
:11:25. > :11:30.like that. It is about 40p or something? One of those biggish
:11:30. > :11:36.ones. This is a classic Boris, changing the milk. I said a pint of
:11:36. > :11:40.milk. There you go, I don't know how much a pint of milk costs, so
:11:40. > :11:44.what? Don't you think you should if you are concerned about the cost of
:11:44. > :11:50.living? How much is a loaf of bread? I'm not standing for
:11:50. > :11:57.election! You are! Why don't you know how much a loaf of bread is. I
:11:57. > :12:01.-- I do but I'm not getting suckered into answering your
:12:01. > :12:05.question, that is your usual trick isn't it? No! The point is you just
:12:05. > :12:12.seem to be aligned on the wrong side? No, that is wrong. If you
:12:12. > :12:20.look at what the Conservatives are advocating it is, I think, much,
:12:20. > :12:25.much more sensible than the completely delusional policy that
:12:25. > :12:30.Ed Miliband came up with last week, which was a fool's gold. He said to
:12:30. > :12:33.people we can cut your bills and your costs but they know that those
:12:33. > :12:41.things will inevitably go up again. They also know, I think this is the
:12:41. > :12:44.crucial thing, that it will simply suppress the ability of the energy
:12:44. > :12:49.companies to make the investments that we need. That is an argument,
:12:49. > :12:59.by the way, that we won in London. I had exactly those sorts of
:12:59. > :13:03.disputes with my Labour predecessor, Ken Livingston, who said we can cut
:13:03. > :13:08.X and Y costs and cut fares I think he said 7% or something like that.
:13:08. > :13:12.And actually all that would have done is take billions out of our
:13:12. > :13:19.ability to invest in transport and we would then have to put the fares
:13:19. > :13:24.up any way to cope with the inevitable repairs. It was a false
:13:24. > :13:29.perspective. I think we can win. On that ground. You raised the subject
:13:29. > :13:37.of public spending, if you had £6hun million to spend, would you
:13:37. > :13:41.£600 million to spend, would you spend it on giving a tax break to
:13:41. > :13:46.married couple? Is it costing that? I think this is one of those
:13:47. > :13:50.questions where the Prime Minister made a firm commitment before the
:13:50. > :13:55.last election, he said he was going to do it, he has done it, and I
:13:55. > :13:59.greatly admire him for sticking to his promise. The answer to your
:13:59. > :14:05.question is no I wouldn't? You know perfectly well it is not, I'm not
:14:05. > :14:09.the Prime Minister. It is not my, it is not my, I'm not running these
:14:09. > :14:14.things. You wouldn't have done it? It is not my policy that I
:14:14. > :14:17.campaigned on. But what I admire in David Cameron is that this is
:14:17. > :14:20.something, this is something that he promised the people of this
:14:20. > :14:26.country and he has done it. If you were an MP of course you would have
:14:26. > :14:30.to support the Prime Minister? Wouldn't you? If we had some ham we
:14:30. > :14:37.could have ham and eggs, if we had eggs, I'm not an MP, I'm the Mayor
:14:37. > :14:49.of London. I didn't prom mull gate this policy that you mention. You
:14:49. > :14:52.personally don't believe in it? It is not my number one policy. I
:14:52. > :14:54.didn't say number one, but I wondered if you had the money to
:14:54. > :15:07.didn't say number one, but I spend would you spend it on giving
:15:07. > :15:09.the feckless husband rather than the loyal and honest cohabity? The
:15:09. > :15:16.Prime Minister said he would do it, the loyal and honest cohabity? The
:15:16. > :15:22.he has done it, give him the credit. What happens after the Mayor of
:15:22. > :15:28.London? That is in about three years time, that is a long time.
:15:28. > :15:34.And as I have said before, you know, it might be that I wanted to have a
:15:34. > :15:44.career in writing romantic fiction, for instance. Under the...It Is
:15:44. > :15:50.possible, I suppose. Under RosieM Banks. In Matthew D'Ancona's book,
:15:50. > :15:53.In The Together, he quotes a conversation between you and David
:15:53. > :15:57.Cameron, you say to Cameron, this is your last election, you want to
:15:57. > :16:05.go and earn some money? If someone said that, and pointed that out to
:16:05. > :16:09.me earlier this evening, Matthew is a brilliant journalist and writer.
:16:09. > :16:14.me earlier this evening, Matthew is I don't remember saying that. It is
:16:14. > :16:20.conceivable, but I don't remember saying that. David Cameron replies
:16:20. > :16:26.apparently "That's bollocks"! Is it. The whole story? The idea that what
:16:26. > :16:32.you want to do when you leave the mayorality of London is to go and
:16:32. > :16:34.make some money. You have just said, in case you weren't paying
:16:34. > :16:47.attention that I was one thing I in case you weren't paying
:16:47. > :16:52.had thought of doing perhaps in a vain and unrealistic way was
:16:52. > :17:00.romantic fiction, glossy novels with embossed covers with pictures
:17:00. > :17:06.of orchids. Perhaps adopting a pseudonym, so your hand might waver
:17:06. > :17:09.over it. You won't make a fortune out of that? Try something else
:17:09. > :17:13.then. Something will crop up. You have definitely ruled out the idea
:17:13. > :17:21.of any return to parliament? I have got a very heavy and demanding job
:17:21. > :17:24.to do. For two-and-a-half years? I'm doing it to the best of my
:17:24. > :17:28.argument, I think we are achieving a great deal in London. I'm
:17:28. > :17:35.determined...Could You be mayor and MP at the same time? I'm determined
:17:35. > :17:40.to fill the unforgiving minute with 60 seconds worth of distance run
:17:40. > :17:43.and get my job done. We have got a huge housing crisis in London, I
:17:43. > :17:48.have to win all sorts of arguments, as you know, with the Treasury
:17:48. > :17:51.about funding for London, about improving transport in London.
:17:52. > :17:57.These are vital, vital things for the future of the greatest city on
:17:57. > :18:03.earth. I think that to most of our viewers, Jeremy, those faithful few
:18:03. > :18:08.who have not turned off in disgust, I think for most of our viewers
:18:08. > :18:12.that is what they think I should be concentrating on. Concentrating on,
:18:12. > :18:19.yes, but can you be an MP and Mayor of London at the same time? I think
:18:19. > :18:31.John Wilks was, he's not possibly the best. Interesting role model
:18:31. > :18:37.though? Well. I think I have to do the job to the best of my argument.
:18:37. > :18:42.So it is very interesting, you have danced around the subject but not
:18:42. > :18:45.ruled it out? What haven't I ruled out, being an MP and being Mayor of
:18:45. > :18:48.ruled it out? What haven't I ruled London at the same time. I want to
:18:48. > :18:52.get on with my job being Mayor London at the same time. I want to
:18:52. > :18:56.London. I don't think you have ruled it out? I have ruled it out.
:18:56. > :19:04.Why don't you say, no I couldn't, I couldn't do both? I did do both by
:19:04. > :19:16.the way for a while. As did is it Ken Livingston? But, you know, this
:19:16. > :19:24.is now a super-mass at thiscated subject. Masticate a bit more, spit
:19:24. > :19:35.it out. I want to get on with my job of running the city. Just
:19:35. > :19:39.before the election George Osborne made a speech in this conference
:19:39. > :19:44.hall where he repeated the phrase "we're all in this together", who
:19:44. > :19:51.are you kidding. But we discovered after the vote how pressent he had
:19:51. > :19:54.been. If they wanted a stab at it, they had to be in it with somebody
:19:54. > :20:00.else. The Liberal Democrats were the natural group to say if they
:20:00. > :20:04.weren't natural bet fellows is an understatement. Matthew D'Ancona,
:20:04. > :20:10.for his first broadcast interview, has written a book about a strange
:20:10. > :20:15.forced marriage. This book being about politics, this report
:20:15. > :20:20.contains strong language and flash photography. A doomsday message in
:20:20. > :20:24.public. Behind the scenes a different story. On election night,
:20:24. > :20:29.Nicholas Boles, a near parliamentary candidate, but in
:20:29. > :20:33.practice a key player, sent a highly confidential memo to George
:20:33. > :20:46.Osborne, David Cameron and others arguing strongly for coalition.
:20:46. > :20:55.Cameron, his hand forced by the electorate duly delivered. The dawn
:20:55. > :20:58.of a new politics, how often have we heard that before? Relatively
:20:58. > :21:03.speaking the formation of the cabinet was easy. Boris Johnson, I
:21:03. > :21:07.gathered, considered it a triumph of the public school system, a
:21:07. > :21:09.system of which he was a product, as was David Cameron, George
:21:09. > :21:17.Osborne, not to mention new boy Nick Clegg.
:21:17. > :21:20.After the drama of the coalition negotiations, Clegg's strategic
:21:20. > :21:24.task was to turn the Lib Dems from a party of protest into a party of
:21:24. > :21:27.Government. This wouldn't be easy. First there was the ignominy of the
:21:27. > :21:30.U-turn on tuition fees. You First there was the ignominy of the
:21:30. > :21:35.completely sold out your principles and you have lied to your voters,
:21:35. > :21:38.how could you do that? And then the catastrophic defeat in the
:21:38. > :21:42.referendum on the alternative vote. Looking back on those months Clegg
:21:42. > :21:51.confideed in private that he wasn't really leading. Clegg had watched
:21:51. > :21:53.as his Tory counterparts had swung behind the no campaign with
:21:53. > :21:58.devastating consequences for him. It was the end of innocence. In the
:21:58. > :22:03.words of one senior Downing Street official, "Nick realised what we're
:22:03. > :22:09.like, what Tories are capable of." As another Cameron ally put it to
:22:09. > :22:19.me, "the rose garden had been well and truly napalmed". The joists of
:22:19. > :22:23.coalition freakly groaned and -- frequently frowned and creeked. But
:22:23. > :22:27.Clegg always felt that he was the fall guy, the person who took the
:22:27. > :22:35.blame for the disagreements. As he told one
:22:35. > :22:42.In all the rows with Cameron over Europe, welfare and Lords reform,
:22:42. > :22:45.the backdrop was always the Lib Dems' terror of electoral
:22:45. > :22:49.destruction. When he withdrew support for the boundary review, a
:22:49. > :22:53.review that might well have delivered the Conservatives victory
:22:53. > :22:59.in the 2015 election, Clegg was quite clear.
:22:59. > :23:03."This is an existential threat sorry, you should have thought of
:23:03. > :23:08.this before the AV Reverend come". The message to Cameron was an
:23:08. > :23:11.abject terror that Nick Clegg couldn't admit in public. He often
:23:11. > :23:15.said to his friends that he thought he would be gone in three months.
:23:16. > :23:20.Today Clegg it still standing, but the experience of the coalition has
:23:20. > :23:23.been one of the perils as well as the possibilities of Government.
:23:23. > :23:28.Under the canvas of the coalition's the possibilities of Government.
:23:28. > :23:33.big tent there was room for plenty of punch-ups, few as bitter as the
:23:33. > :23:37.feud over welfare between George Osborne and Iain Duncan Smith the
:23:37. > :23:40.Work and Pensions Secretary. George Osborne thought Iain Duncan Smith
:23:40. > :23:43.wasn't up for the job and inferior to business of cutting the deficit.
:23:43. > :23:48.Iain Duncan Smith thought George Osborne was power mad, and enjoyed
:23:48. > :23:52.Lording it over a former Conservative leader. As one
:23:52. > :23:58.familiar with IDS's sensitivities put to me, imagine waking up one
:23:58. > :24:05.morning and finding out Anta Dec are running the -- Ant and Dec are
:24:05. > :24:08.running the country?! The Conservatives' first conference in
:24:08. > :24:14.power for 14 years ought to have been a jab worry, but it was marred
:24:15. > :24:20.by Iain Duncan Smith's fury when George Osborne announced that child
:24:20. > :24:25.tax-payers would lose. I thought we were a team, if we are going to do
:24:25. > :24:29.this, we have to work as a team. The Prime Minister promised to talk
:24:29. > :24:34.to George, George Osborne thought that IDS lacked the IC. You see Ian
:24:34. > :24:41.giving presentation and realise he's not clever enough. And was too
:24:42. > :24:44.squeamish for austerity? He opposed every cut. Iain Duncan Smith
:24:45. > :24:49.resisted George Osborne's efforts to get him reshuffled. The contempt
:24:49. > :24:56.between the two men hardened into one of the coalition's structural
:24:56. > :24:59.problems. Committees proliferated under the coalition, informal
:25:00. > :25:03.negotiation and personal chemistry became more important if anything.
:25:03. > :25:07.I was repeatedly told that there were only three people who could
:25:07. > :25:12.change David Cameron's mind, George Osborne, Andy Coulson, his Director
:25:12. > :25:16.of Communications and Steve Hilton, his maverick senior adviser, now on
:25:16. > :25:20.sabbatical in California. There is only so much that can be said about
:25:20. > :25:24.Andy Coulson, who left his post in January 2011 and now faces charges
:25:24. > :25:33.over alleged phone hacking when he was editor of the News of the World.
:25:33. > :25:38.Coulson offered to resign in July 2009 when new and more serious
:25:38. > :25:44.allegations started to appear in the papers. But Cameron hung on to
:25:44. > :25:49.his comms magician for another year-and-a-half, with politically
:25:49. > :25:55.disastrous consequences. Hilton was the PM's other addiction, brilliant,
:25:55. > :25:59.and unpredictable. His cfrgs were extraordinary. In May 2012 he
:25:59. > :26:05.screamed at the head of the home Civil Service over what Hilton had
:26:05. > :26:09.said about Civil Service cuts. He was reproached on more than one
:26:09. > :26:16.occasion by Chief of Staff, Edward Llewellyn. Look you have to watch
:26:16. > :26:18.it, we don't want that sort of reputation. What did Cameron want,
:26:18. > :26:22.he backed enough Hilton, but not reputation. What did Cameron want,
:26:22. > :26:25.Hilton felt to truly transform the country. Before departing on
:26:25. > :26:32.sabbatical in California, he toyed with the idea of becoming Boris
:26:32. > :26:36.Johnson's Deputy Mayor, a provocation too far, both men
:26:36. > :26:40.decided. It is a curiosity of the coalition that no account of its
:26:40. > :26:44.inner life is complete without mentioning a figure who operated
:26:44. > :26:52.entirely outside its borders as Mayor of London. When Cameron
:26:52. > :26:57.stopped where Tory MPs fell, Boris rose, on he positioned himself as
:26:57. > :27:01.more euro-sceptic and pro-growth. Re-elected as London mayor in 2012,
:27:01. > :27:04.he turned the Olympic games into the greatest leadership campaign
:27:04. > :27:09.launch in history. Hoovering up credit as he put to one friend. His
:27:09. > :27:14.ambition to be Prime Minister was increasingly overt. To one friend
:27:14. > :27:18.he announced his intention to drive a T-54 into Number Ten. On the
:27:19. > :27:22.night of his second victory over Ken Livingston, Boris had said to
:27:22. > :27:29.Cameron. This is my last election, Dave, I want to go and earn some
:27:29. > :27:35.money. Cameron replied simply and accurately. That is bollocks! A
:27:35. > :27:40.Boris speech or seemingly off the cuff remark would illicit a sharp
:27:40. > :27:45.response from Cameron, an e-mail, or sharp Texas he told friends.
:27:45. > :27:50.Dave was pretty bloody direct. According to one aide Boris would
:27:50. > :27:54.end up apologising. Mate, sorry, I messed up. The relationship between
:27:54. > :27:58.the two men remains the coalition's most fascinating story. In
:27:58. > :28:02.Manchester, as ever, it is one of the main talking points, is Boris
:28:02. > :28:06.the Tory Messiah or has he peaked too soon. Creeking, groaning,
:28:06. > :28:11.splutering, the coalition still stands, it has weathered economic
:28:11. > :28:17.hardship, war overseas, an NHS cry and much else. The romance of the
:28:17. > :28:25.rose garden has gone. What remains is a new form of governing, flawed
:28:25. > :28:29.but surprisingly robust. When Nick Clegg gets down, his wife Miriam
:28:29. > :28:34.tells him, the only way to get back at them is to show them coalition
:28:34. > :28:44.can work. To that extent at least, he and his colleagues seem to have
:28:44. > :28:50.proved their point. Matthew D'Ancona is here to chew over the
:28:50. > :28:54.turbulent history and future of the coalition, and with him are the
:28:54. > :28:58.journalists Rachel Sylveter and Iain Martin. George Osborne says he
:28:58. > :29:03.doesn't think that Iain Duncan Smith is stupid, David Cameron says
:29:03. > :29:06.he doesn't regret the gay marriage idea. The Cameron family are
:29:06. > :29:09.furious about the suggestion that they don't like the Downing Street
:29:09. > :29:15.cat. How much of this is true?. It is all true. I have to say whilst I
:29:15. > :29:17.cat. How much of this is true?. It wouldn't accuse anyone of having
:29:17. > :29:21.their pants on fire, there is a lot of smoldering going on. There is a
:29:21. > :29:27.pattern here, when a journalist writes a book like this, which you
:29:27. > :29:30.observed in the Diana and new Labour case, there is lots of
:29:30. > :29:34.revelations and a pattern of denial. The memoirs come out and we realise
:29:34. > :29:41.it was even worse than the original reports. I think all of those
:29:41. > :29:44.stories are 100% true. How different would Government have
:29:44. > :29:47.been if it hadn't been a coalition Government since the last election?
:29:47. > :29:50.My point in the book is that coalition is a completely new form
:29:50. > :29:55.of Government in the form that they are practising it. I think minority
:29:55. > :29:58.Government would have just been a form of coalition forming every day.
:29:58. > :30:05.It would have been untenable. So what you see here is a flawed riven,
:30:05. > :30:10.conflict -splattered form of Government, but none the less,
:30:10. > :30:14.something that has endured. Those are the two themes. This is a
:30:14. > :30:17.Government that is both a disaster and huge triumph. How close to
:30:17. > :30:23.collapse did it ever come? I think one of the things I say in the book
:30:23. > :30:30.is that the conflict over the Lords last year was quoted to me by one
:30:31. > :30:34.Number Ten aide as being our Cuba crisis. The point about that was
:30:34. > :30:39.they lost touch with each other. Coalitions only work if each side
:30:39. > :30:42.is very, very frank. At that point they weren't. Rachel Sylveter, the
:30:42. > :30:46.feeling within the party about they weren't. Rachel Sylveter, the
:30:46. > :30:49.coalition now? Which party? Within the Conservative Party? There is
:30:49. > :30:53.this kind of mismatch, I think, between what the people at the top
:30:53. > :30:57.feel and what both the tribes think. On both the Conservative side and
:30:57. > :31:01.the Lib Dem side the activists and quite a lot of the MPs don't like
:31:01. > :31:04.it. Particularly for the Tories. These MPs might have expected to be
:31:04. > :31:08.ministers if there wasn't a coalition. But at the top,
:31:08. > :31:11.particularly among the Conservative moderniser there is almost a
:31:11. > :31:14.feeling that coalition is better than single-party Government. I
:31:14. > :31:18.remember having a dinner with a cabinet minister, a year after the
:31:18. > :31:21.coalition of formed, and publicly everything was absolutely falling
:31:21. > :31:26.out over the AV referendum and this minister said to me, you know even
:31:26. > :31:28.if we have a majority at the next election we should think about
:31:28. > :31:35.going into coalition and inviting the Lib Dems into cabinet. I know
:31:35. > :31:41.you have been busy with the book about Fred Goodwin and the banking
:31:41. > :31:44.crisis you are close to a lot of the party, what is your sense of
:31:44. > :31:48.feeling about the coalition with the Lib Dems? I can see why the
:31:48. > :31:51.coalition is popular with those inside it and they are enjoying
:31:51. > :31:56.power and wielding power. They are in politics to be in power. But
:31:56. > :32:00.ultimately it has been calamitous for the Conservative Party. The
:32:00. > :32:06.membership has halved under David Cameron's leadership and the
:32:06. > :32:10.politics of coalition it has forced Cameron into positions which are
:32:10. > :32:16.directly linked and related to that, to people leaving and going to UKIP.
:32:16. > :32:19.It is forced hip, and tied his hands on Europe specifically, it
:32:19. > :32:23.has forced him into the politics of gay marriage, and the Conservative
:32:23. > :32:27.Party is now heading for having around 100,000 members. Its
:32:27. > :32:32.activist base has been hollowed out, it has been a marvellous wheeze for
:32:32. > :32:35.those running it but not for the party. Supposing there is any
:32:35. > :32:39.similar result after the next election, there will be another
:32:39. > :32:42.coalition, is there an appetite for it? At the apex there is, testify
:32:42. > :32:46.infinitely, I think Cameron and Clegg have talked about it, I think
:32:46. > :32:49.that Clegg, who is by no means representative of his whole party
:32:50. > :32:54.would definitely favour a coalition with the Tories over one with Ed
:32:54. > :32:57.Miliband. Whether it is possible is another question, to do it this
:32:57. > :33:01.time Cameron would have to get, and he says this in the book, he would
:33:01. > :33:05.have to get the permission of his party. I think Ian reflects a good
:33:05. > :33:09.point, I'm not sure that they would go for it. On the other hand, how
:33:09. > :33:12.else is he going to get, if he doesn't get a majority to the
:33:12. > :33:16.position wants to be, which is to have a referendum on Europe,
:33:16. > :33:19.continue with fiscal reform and so on. What is your sense about this?
:33:19. > :33:24.I don't think they will allow him to have another coalition. I think,
:33:24. > :33:27.he has been lead, we forget how long he has been leader of the Tory
:33:27. > :33:32.Party. He has been leader this autumn for eight years. And at
:33:32. > :33:36.eight years he still hasn't won his first general election, if he falls
:33:36. > :33:39.short again I think he will be in quite serious trouble. I don't
:33:39. > :33:43.think they will give him the license that they gave him in the
:33:43. > :33:47.hours and days immediately after the last election. What's your
:33:47. > :33:51.sense of another coalition? I think it has to be quite likely. I think
:33:51. > :33:55.the last few years have changed the way in which all the parties have
:33:55. > :33:59.had to think about coalition, hung parliaments, everyone before the
:33:59. > :34:03.last election said it would be a total disaster. Matthew was saying
:34:03. > :34:07.he thought it was more likely than a coalition between Clegg and Ed
:34:07. > :34:16.Miliband, do you agree with that? It completely depends on the
:34:16. > :34:18.numbers. I think there would be an issue whether the Labour Party
:34:18. > :34:21.would agree to go into coalition with Clegg. I don't think they want
:34:21. > :34:25.to. I suspect that the Labour Party has learned the lesson from
:34:25. > :34:29.Cameron's experience with the Conservative Party and I think they
:34:29. > :34:34.are determined to avoid a coalition, if possible. Certainly with Clegg.
:34:34. > :34:38.Or even with someone he will. The Lib Dem is banging on about how it
:34:38. > :34:41.has changed the nature of politics in Britain. Do you three get a
:34:41. > :34:46.sense it has changed the nature of politics? I think it has, actually.
:34:46. > :34:50.If you compare to a minority administration, compared to the way
:34:50. > :34:54.John Major had to govern for those years, towards the end it was utter
:34:54. > :34:57.chaos. Compared even to the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown falling outs
:34:57. > :35:01.during new Labour. The coalition has been relatively stable, it has
:35:01. > :35:05.worked, I would say. Politics is also becoming more plural. The
:35:05. > :35:09.coalition is the product of a new politics, not the engine. You are
:35:09. > :35:13.getting a situation where the two main parties are no longer as
:35:13. > :35:17.dominant as they were. That is a statistical fact, you are getting
:35:17. > :35:21.new parties like UKIP being taken seriously, added to that you have a
:35:21. > :35:22.situation where people who are completely outside parliament, like
:35:22. > :35:26.situation where people who are Boris Johnson, are very important
:35:26. > :35:29.to the political landscapement we are talking about Boris Johnson,
:35:29. > :35:34.he's not an MP. But politics are not the same as it was in the
:35:34. > :35:36.Thatcher era. That is the really important learning from this
:35:36. > :35:42.conference is, as much as it has been dominated by her speck tr it,
:35:42. > :35:51.we are not in 19 -- specter. We are not in 1987. Jo I think this is not
:35:51. > :35:55.with Thatcher but Reagan. The core mistake modernisers made ten, eight
:35:55. > :36:01.years ago, they didn't behave like Reagan, and do what John Howard did,
:36:01. > :36:06.Stephen Harper has done in Australia. In those countries where
:36:06. > :36:11.the centre right wins, you begin by looking in your core support. And
:36:11. > :36:17.then building out into floating voter land. The modernisers started
:36:17. > :36:23.by essentially declaring war on their own base. They are reaping
:36:23. > :36:25.what they sow here. UKIP are polling 10%, they won't get that in
:36:25. > :36:30.what they sow here. UKIP are a general election, but if they get
:36:30. > :36:36.6%, they only got 3% last year, that is two million votes. Carnage
:36:36. > :36:42.for the Tories. All parties are a coalition, you can have the Tories
:36:42. > :36:45.or Lib Dems or the modernisers or the traditionalists, a lot of
:36:45. > :36:48.modernisers would prefer coalition with the Lib Dems. Those members
:36:48. > :36:51.and activists that have left the Conservative Party, people are not
:36:51. > :36:56.stupid. They have left because they realise they are not liked and the
:36:57. > :37:00.leadership despises them. The trouble is if you tack too far to
:37:00. > :37:04.get the UKIP people back you lose more people in the centre. Thank
:37:04. > :37:10.you very much indeed. Back to Gavin in London.
:37:10. > :37:12.Two animals are famous for jumping off cliffs, lemmings and the
:37:12. > :37:16.gathering swine of the Bible. Tonight we have a third possible
:37:16. > :37:19.contender, the United States Government. Admit night American
:37:19. > :37:24.time the inability of Republicans in Congress to come to an agreement
:37:25. > :37:28.with Democrats or the Obama administration may lead to the US
:37:28. > :37:30.Government closing down. They are on the brink of the called fiscal
:37:30. > :37:33.cliff. Our diplomatic editor is on the brink of the called fiscal
:37:33. > :37:38.here with the details. How on earth did they get to this point? You
:37:38. > :37:41.know how it is, Congress holds the purse strings. There is a situation
:37:41. > :37:46.where you have a democratic majority in the Senate, the Upper
:37:46. > :37:48.House, and the Republicans control The House I Live In of
:37:48. > :37:53.representatives. They have managed to push it down the ood -- House of
:37:53. > :37:58.Representatives, they have managed to push it down the road a few
:37:58. > :38:02.times. The issue of healthcare reform is a totem, they want to
:38:02. > :38:07.take it, and the Democrats don't want to let them. We are a few
:38:07. > :38:11.hours away from crisis coming to fruition. The fiscal cliff and
:38:11. > :38:18.earlier this evening President Obama weighed in. It does not have
:38:18. > :38:29.to happen. All of this is entirely preventable if the House chooses to
:38:29. > :38:34.do what the Senate has already done. That is the simple fact of funding
:38:34. > :38:38.our Government and not making demands in the process. If it
:38:38. > :38:43.happens at midnight American time, what are the consequences? Much of
:38:43. > :38:48.federal Government, for the first time in 17 years will shut down. If
:38:48. > :38:57.you are planning a holiday, don't count on being able to visit y
:38:57. > :39:02.cemetery park, or the parks agencies will completely such down.
:39:02. > :39:06.The post will keep going, the Armed Forces will stay on operations, but
:39:06. > :39:09.not being paid for the time being. Throughout federal Government as a
:39:09. > :39:13.whole, if you look across federal Government, the number of people
:39:13. > :39:17.who will stop working from midnight, if this goes ahead is several
:39:17. > :39:22.hundred thousand. There will still be some in key agencies carrying on,
:39:22. > :39:26.but many of them not being paid at all. When you actually put the
:39:26. > :39:31.economic effect of that into the current picture, that will have an
:39:31. > :39:39.equivalent effect to cutting the US GDP by 0.15% per week. The lack of
:39:39. > :39:43.that money going into the economy. The slowdown in federal activity,
:39:43. > :39:48.it will have that effect. Week on week, if that continued, then it
:39:48. > :39:52.would get to a more serious crisis, empty pockets, default, the US
:39:52. > :39:56.would be unable to honour its bonds. That is the really serious thing
:39:56. > :40:01.which if they were to push it that far could come further down the
:40:01. > :40:05.road. Most people think the Republicans in the House will not
:40:05. > :40:14.let it go that far. They would fear the political damage as much as
:40:14. > :40:19.anyone else. We're joined now from Capitol Hill. Is it going to happen.
:40:19. > :40:24.Are they going to push themselves off the fiscal cliff? I think it is,
:40:24. > :40:29.there is only six hours to go now, and the House are meeting, they
:40:29. > :40:33.will have a vote later on, on what the Senate has sent them back. They
:40:33. > :40:38.have made it quite clear they still want the Republicans in the House,
:40:38. > :40:42.they still want a link between funding the Government and doing
:40:42. > :40:45.some sort of damage to Obamacare. The President has been
:40:45. > :40:48.extraordinarily clear, he spoke within the last hour and he and the
:40:48. > :40:54.Democrats are playing hard ball about this. For the reason that
:40:54. > :40:59.Mark just set out. If they actually tampered with the debt limit. If
:40:59. > :41:03.the Republicans tried to link that to other causes it would be very
:41:03. > :41:07.dangerous indeed. They want to fight now on less dangerous ground.
:41:07. > :41:17.It does look like it is heading for a shutdown. Jung Chang is best
:41:17. > :41:22.known for Wild Swans, the story of three generations of women in her
:41:22. > :41:25.family, and putting a human face on China.
:41:25. > :41:30.Now in her latest book she has turned to a woman who had the most
:41:30. > :41:34.formidable reputation, but perhaps more than any one individual helped
:41:35. > :41:39.pull 19th century China towards the modern age. I spoke to Jung Chang
:41:39. > :41:43.before we came on air. I'm curious, first of all, as to what it was
:41:43. > :41:51.that attracted you to the subject of the Empress Dowager. She's
:41:51. > :41:55.usually portrayed as some kind of monster? Monsters can be very good
:41:55. > :42:04.subjects, Mao was a monster but good subject. He was my previous
:42:04. > :42:08.subject. I first got interested in the Empress Dowager when
:42:08. > :42:12.researching Wild Swans more than 20 years ago. She was the person who
:42:12. > :42:18.banned the foot binding, crushing and binding women's feet to make
:42:18. > :42:24.them tiny. My grandmother had bound feet, she lived in pain the rest of
:42:25. > :42:30.her life. I was astonished that the Empress Dowager banned it. Then
:42:30. > :42:37.when I was researching the biography of Mao, I was astonished
:42:37. > :42:45.again how, by how many opportunities and freedom Mao had
:42:45. > :42:51.in his youth and childhood under the Empress Dowager. He was a
:42:51. > :42:54.peasant lad, but he could get scholarships and go abroad if he
:42:54. > :43:00.wanted to. He could write for newspapers whatever he wanted to
:43:00. > :43:04.write. He could travel around the country with girlfriends and
:43:04. > :43:09.checking into hotels. All these freedom, I couldn't dream of when I
:43:09. > :43:13.was growing up under Mao. One of the reasons we love looking at
:43:13. > :43:17.historical biographers is what it also tell us about today and we see
:43:17. > :43:22.continuity or differences between her and Mao and Mao growing up when
:43:22. > :43:30.she ruled, effectively ruled China. What do you think of today's elites
:43:30. > :43:35.and whether they are, they are obviously different people coming
:43:35. > :43:37.from a different class. But do they seem super-rich and out-of-touch
:43:37. > :43:43.perhaps with the lives of ordinary people in the way that people at
:43:43. > :43:48.the top were in the days of the Empress Dowager? I think they were
:43:48. > :43:55.not out-of-touch in the Empress Dowager's time, nor are they out-
:43:55. > :44:01.of-touch with today's China. It is a matter of choice. People often
:44:01. > :44:08.compare, people in China, right at the moment comparing the Chinese
:44:08. > :44:14.regime today with the Empress Dowager's later years. I mean they
:44:14. > :44:20.have many things in common. The door of China has been opened for
:44:20. > :44:24.decades and there was considerable economic advance and prosperity.
:44:24. > :44:30.And now people have political aspirations. So what do you do? Do
:44:30. > :44:35.you go on and pursue political reforms, which is what the Empress
:44:35. > :44:40.Dowager chose to do. Her last project was to turn China into a
:44:40. > :44:44.constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament, with the
:44:44. > :44:51.freedom of the press, the rule of law and the so on. And she rejected
:44:51. > :44:55.the root of winding the clock -- the route of winding the clock back.
:44:55. > :44:59.I wondered whether you feel, because you are not published in
:44:59. > :45:03.China, you are not going to get this book published in China, are
:45:03. > :45:09.you. Is that a real sadness for you about the failure to reform so that
:45:09. > :45:13.your books, which are accepted around the world, could be accepted
:45:13. > :45:20.where you are from? It is very sad. Of course I want very much to see
:45:20. > :45:27.my books published in China. And this book I hope will be a slight
:45:27. > :45:35.test to see whether the regime would be moving towards being more
:45:35. > :45:38.entightn't. -- enlightened. But I'm translating the book into Chinese
:45:38. > :45:45.at the moment. It will be published in Hong Kong and Taiwan. And copies
:45:45. > :45:49.will go into China. Because Chinese tourists are going to Hong Kong and
:45:49. > :45:53.Taiwan, they buy banned books is what they do. Many copies actually
:45:53. > :45:58.of my books have gone into China. And given as present to other
:45:58. > :46:00.people as well? Absolutely. On that happy note, Jung Chang, thank you
:46:00. > :46:05.for coming in. That's all for tonight. Jeremy is
:46:05. > :46:14.still in Manchester tomorrow, when the American video producer, Marina
:46:14. > :46:19.Schiffein decided to complain about her working conditions, her manager
:46:19. > :46:28.didn't take much in the. She created a hit YouTube video for him.
:46:28. > :46:29.An interpretive dance set to Kanye West's song.