:00:09. > :00:15.Tonight, Mark Carney pulls the plug on a scheme to help home buyers.
:00:16. > :00:19.Does this portray his fear of the housing bubble to come? It would no
:00:20. > :00:24.longer be appropriate or necessary to have our foot on the accelerator.
:00:25. > :00:28.It's better to shift into neutral. That's why the changes are being
:00:29. > :00:32.made. This man once said he wanted to be King of the world. Boris
:00:33. > :00:37.Johnson tonight is accused of unpleasant elitism.
:00:38. > :00:44.The policy that causes violence on the streets and prompted this.
:00:45. > :00:49.# I'm so, so sorry # There's no easy way to say I'm
:00:50. > :00:59.sorry... # But how But has the row over tuition
:01:00. > :01:04.feels all been for nothing? And whatps -- what happens when you turn
:01:05. > :01:13.your back on your parents' religion and have to tell them? She began to
:01:14. > :01:21.cry. She said to me, "if it's between you and Allah, I choose
:01:22. > :01:24.Allah. ". Good evening.
:01:25. > :01:28.Is Mark Carney getting cold feet about the UK housing market? Today,
:01:29. > :01:32.starkly, one of its mortgage lending schemes was shut down. But funding
:01:33. > :01:37.for lending programme which allows people to borrow at low rates will
:01:38. > :01:41.no longer be available for home buying after the end of January. The
:01:42. > :01:44.Bank of England's concern was the unexpected speed at which house
:01:45. > :01:48.prices were rising in many parts of Britain, time he suggested to take
:01:49. > :01:51.his foot off the gas before the interest rates underpinning the
:01:52. > :01:55.fragile economy would have to go up. Of course, there are other ways of
:01:56. > :02:01.borrowing cheap money to buy a home. The Government flagship scheme, Help
:02:02. > :02:03.To Buy, remains untouched, but sceptics may wonder for just how
:02:04. > :02:12.long. Here is Andy Verity.
:02:13. > :02:18.Who is setting the course for the housing market? As evidence mounts
:02:19. > :02:21.of house prices getting even less affordable, the Treasury's answer
:02:22. > :02:25.has been to use Government noun help buyers pay the prices, loosening
:02:26. > :02:30.lending. But today, the Bank of England fired a shot across the
:02:31. > :02:34.Treasury's bows. The risk to financial stability may
:02:35. > :02:39.grow if there is further substantial rapid increases in house prices and
:02:40. > :02:43.further build-up of household debt. These risks would be amplified if
:02:44. > :02:48.unrate standards on mortgage lending were to weaken, as has been the case
:02:49. > :02:52.in previous house price sickles. Until today the Governor had been
:02:53. > :02:57.content to go along with the Treasury line that the risks of a
:02:58. > :02:59.bubble were remote. But today, he presented mounting evidence that
:03:00. > :03:03.there were significant risks in the housing market. On this chart, the
:03:04. > :03:08.two bars on the right represent those whose mortgages are more than
:03:09. > :03:16.four times their, in holding a third of the mortgage debt in the country.
:03:17. > :03:19.On the right, is those who hold a fifth of mortgage debt.
:03:20. > :03:23.The lending scheme is one of the reason we have the cheapest
:03:24. > :03:29.mortgages offered. You can borrow ?500,000 and pay just ?621 a month.
:03:30. > :03:35.No wonder some people now including the Bank of England are worried
:03:36. > :03:39.about house prices taking off. 40% of outstanding mortgage debt is
:03:40. > :03:43.held by people who have a debt equal to, or greater than four times their
:03:44. > :03:46.income. Clearly this is Kuwait a high number and could cause concern
:03:47. > :03:52.under higher interest rates. Funding for lending makes cheap
:03:53. > :03:57.funds available at a quarter of a percent, a measure introduced last
:03:58. > :04:01.year when the banking process threatened the recovery. The Bank of
:04:02. > :04:06.England made it clear today it was withdrawing that for household
:04:07. > :04:10.lending. In its stability report published today, the fear is less
:04:11. > :04:16.double dip, more double bubble. It might be an increase, or a shift
:04:17. > :04:24.really, in the Bank of England's thinking about what is more worth
:04:25. > :04:31.worrying about maybe, which is that the problems with affordability, the
:04:32. > :04:38.structure of the housing market, the prices one has to pay in Central
:04:39. > :04:43.London et cetera. Actually, they have an impact on financial
:04:44. > :04:49.stability. What they seem to be saying in the financial stability
:04:50. > :04:54.report is that they have the policy tools to address that. Mark Carney
:04:55. > :05:01.has reason not to want his tenure at the bank to be marred by a housing
:05:02. > :05:12.bubble. The He was accused of that while in Canada with buyers
:05:13. > :05:16.stretched. When a bank lend you the money for the mortgage, its biggest
:05:17. > :05:19.cost isn't the interest to get hold of the funds but the capital it has
:05:20. > :05:23.to set aside. The rules on that are set by the people in here, the Bank
:05:24. > :05:26.of England, and what they've been saying today is, if they see the
:05:27. > :05:30.housing market taking off, they could tighten the rules right now
:05:31. > :05:35.for every ?100 of money they lend and have to set aside ?1. If the
:05:36. > :05:39.Bank of England raised that to say ?2 it would double their costs and
:05:40. > :05:44.mortgages would become more expensive. The Bank of England could
:05:45. > :05:49.raise capital requirements on areas in the bank's balance sheet where
:05:50. > :05:56.risks were beginning to rise. What that could mean in our view is that,
:05:57. > :06:02.for example, higher loan to value mortgages, mortgages with higher
:06:03. > :06:04.price to income ratios could attract higher capital requirements from the
:06:05. > :06:09.Bank of England. Therefore higher costs? Yes.
:06:10. > :06:12.The Treasury had one answer to rising house prices, loosening
:06:13. > :06:18.lending to the most stretched with the help of taxpayers' money. The
:06:19. > :06:25.bank hasn't stopped that, but it's warning -- its warning shots can't
:06:26. > :06:36.be ignored. Don't expect mortgage rates to stay cheap.
:06:37. > :06:40.Joining me now is Anatole and Mariana Mazucato. Was this the right
:06:41. > :06:47.move? No, most economists believe that the Chancellor was making a big
:06:48. > :06:51.mistake six months ago when he created the Help To Buy scheme. I
:06:52. > :06:54.was one of the few who said at the time, this is the one thing the
:06:55. > :06:59.Government's done that could actually turn the economy around. It
:07:00. > :07:05.did turn the economy around. I think the reason why the UK economy has
:07:06. > :07:09.been surprising most experts on the upside has been doing better than
:07:10. > :07:16.any other European economy now for the first time in five years is the
:07:17. > :07:20.revival of the housing market. So have they got this one wrong? No.
:07:21. > :07:23.This is the kind of action the Bank of England will probably have to
:07:24. > :07:29.take and should take two or three years from now once the economy's
:07:30. > :07:32.recovered and once we are back to a normal economic situation with
:07:33. > :07:38.employment back to 6% and so on, but you think it's too early to do it
:07:39. > :07:44.and it does endanger the economy. Shot his goose a bit too soon,
:07:45. > :07:47.Mariana Mazucato? He's right and wrong. He's right because he's
:07:48. > :07:54.saying we don't want to fiddle with the economy by increasing the
:07:55. > :08:00.interest rate by things overheating. He reintroduces the concept of
:08:01. > :08:04.regulation, he wants to increase leverage ratios and we don't want to
:08:05. > :08:09.lend to the speculative economy, so to give mortgages to consumer
:08:10. > :08:11.selections won't be able to pay the mortgages back, especially once
:08:12. > :08:15.rates do change. He's wrong in the sense that what we are trying to do,
:08:16. > :08:20.and anyone thinking about growth, has had to rebalance the economy
:08:21. > :08:24.away from a speculative finance toward product you have finance and
:08:25. > :08:28.the emphasis that somehow it will happen by lending to SMEs whereby if
:08:29. > :08:33.you look around the world and the UK, SMEs don't provide that much job
:08:34. > :08:36.creation and innovation. So if there is a chance that growth from the
:08:37. > :08:42.housing bubble will be better than what comes next which could be no
:08:43. > :08:45.growth... The problem right now in the world, but definitely in the UK
:08:46. > :08:50.is not the quantity of finance. There's plenty of finance out there.
:08:51. > :08:54.There's not the right quality. . We need long-term, patient committed
:08:55. > :08:58.finance that helps the types of companies that do want to invest in
:08:59. > :09:01.the long-term areas to be able to do that. It's independent of size,
:09:02. > :09:05.small and medium companies need that but none of the reforms are
:09:06. > :09:08.increasing the long-term committed patient finance. He's still trying
:09:09. > :09:12.to go through the banks, just like Vince Cable, with his business bank
:09:13. > :09:20.was still going to go through the private banks. In the US, there's
:09:21. > :09:25.direct lending to companies. Anatole Kaletsky you said you were at odds
:09:26. > :09:29.with a lot of the comikists. All the home lending schemes have been
:09:30. > :09:36.popular but economically slightly crazy? I don't think it has been
:09:37. > :09:42.crazy. This is a case of a measure which was initiated for political
:09:43. > :09:45.and, if you like, quite cynical and manipulative reasons. It was all
:09:46. > :09:48.about winning the next election but it happened to be the right thing to
:09:49. > :09:51.do for the economy at the time because, you know, at the beginning
:09:52. > :09:56.of this year, the economy was in its deepest and longest slump in history
:09:57. > :10:02.and there was no prospect of turning that around. But just explain to us,
:10:03. > :10:07.where does the dynamic sit now between the Bank of England and the
:10:08. > :10:11.Treasury? Who clamped down on this exactly? I think that's a great
:10:12. > :10:16.question because my assumption of course as an outsider was that when
:10:17. > :10:19.George Osborne introduced the Help To Buy programme, it was more or
:10:20. > :10:22.less the same time he announced Mark Carney as the next Governor of the
:10:23. > :10:26.Bank of England, so my assumption, I think most people's was that he must
:10:27. > :10:32.have consulted the new Governor to ensure that he would be supportive
:10:33. > :10:36.of this programme. That's exactly how things seemed for the last or
:10:37. > :10:40.first three for four months with Mark Carney at the Bank of England.
:10:41. > :10:43.But he suddenly and quite inexplicably seems to have changed
:10:44. > :10:50.his position and, to me, I was thinking about this, this is like
:10:51. > :10:53.Henry II and Thomas Beckett. If Mervyn King would have been in
:10:54. > :10:56.charge, it would have been hard to Boro is deuce the Help To Buy
:10:57. > :11:00.programme. Do you think Help To Buy is similarly under the microscope
:11:01. > :11:03.now? I don't think that's where the problem is. Going back to the
:11:04. > :11:07.previous question, the real schizophrenia is in the Treasury. I
:11:08. > :11:16.do actually have quite a bit of faith in Carney. I think he has red
:11:17. > :11:21.Cains. What drives the spirits, your gut instincts about what the future,
:11:22. > :11:26.technological and market initiatives are, that doesn't change. He's
:11:27. > :11:29.trying to think, how can we rebalance towards productive finance
:11:30. > :11:34.to eventually increase that private business investment. I think the
:11:35. > :11:39.problem with the trezly is -- Treasury is, there's no growth. This
:11:40. > :11:44.is why the innovation and industrial policy, which is finally back to
:11:45. > :11:48.business skills, is having little effect because it's not coherent
:11:49. > :11:52.with the Treasury and what they are saying.
:11:53. > :11:56.I think what you are missing, is that businesses are not going to
:11:57. > :12:00.invest unless they see consumer demand. What generates animal
:12:01. > :12:05.spirits is the knowledge that people out there are going to buy your
:12:06. > :12:09.products and services. That is how a housing recovery was beginning and
:12:10. > :12:16.is beginning to feed into the broader economy.
:12:17. > :12:22.One thing canes didn't get right is that, he found that digging ditches
:12:23. > :12:28.and building them up again would improve recovery. For all those
:12:29. > :12:33.people to be able to get a mortgage from lending, you've got all this QE
:12:34. > :12:37.floating in at the other end, the gap between those at the top and
:12:38. > :12:41.those who are not able is even bigger. That's what this is doing,
:12:42. > :12:45.isn't it? Yes. Inequality was both the cause and an effect of the
:12:46. > :12:49.financial crisis. There are too many people taking out these not only bad
:12:50. > :12:54.loans but good loans in the US that didn't have the income. Real incomes
:12:55. > :12:57.have been stagnant for three years. The Help To Buy was beginning to
:12:58. > :13:00.redress that and we are beginning to get to the point where it's
:13:01. > :13:04.beginning to move out from London to the other parts of the country where
:13:05. > :13:07.other houses are not expensive. The average house price in this country
:13:08. > :13:14.is ?170,000. We have got to leave it there. Thank
:13:15. > :13:17.you both very much indeed. I don't want to think about the
:13:18. > :13:22.possibility of what would happen if they found out I'm just too scared
:13:23. > :13:31.to tell them. There are a lot of Cornflakes
:13:32. > :13:35.rattling around Boris's speech last night. When he got past the cereal
:13:36. > :13:39.and delved down to the free toy at the bottom, the message was stark -
:13:40. > :13:48.I don't believe, he told an audience for an annual Margaret Thatcher
:13:49. > :13:53.lecture, that economic prosperity is possible. What if this is in fact
:13:54. > :13:59.the Boris creed? What if his own brand of Boris Pops revolves around
:14:00. > :14:05.the importance of board room greed and unfairness as a spur to economic
:14:06. > :14:09.activity? Here is Zoe Conway. I've never seen anything like this
:14:10. > :14:14.in all my life. When Boris Johnson was a child, he said he wanted to be
:14:15. > :14:18.world King when he grew up. There were times during the Olympics that
:14:19. > :14:21.childhood ambition didn't seem quite so far fetched.
:14:22. > :14:26.These days, he's lowered his sights somewhat. Many in the Conservative
:14:27. > :14:29.Party assume he wants to be their next leader. So what does this
:14:30. > :14:35.pretender for the Tory throne actually believe?
:14:36. > :14:43.Last night, he talked about ineasy quality in a lecture aimed at the
:14:44. > :14:48.Tory right. I don't believe that economic equality is possible.
:14:49. > :14:51.Indeed, some measure of in inequality is essential for the
:14:52. > :14:57.spirit of envy in keeping up with the Joneses and so on that is a
:14:58. > :15:01.valuable spur to economic activity. His comments are interesting because
:15:02. > :15:05.they are such a contrast to David Cameron's public agonising about
:15:06. > :15:10.inequality when he became lead leader. Three years ago, he said
:15:11. > :15:15.less equal societies do worse. But Boris also argued for a move
:15:16. > :15:20.away from the perceived excesses of 1980s Thatcherism.
:15:21. > :15:24.I hope that the Gordon geckos of London are conspicuous not just for
:15:25. > :15:29.their greed, and I accept the CPS view that greed is a valid Motivator
:15:30. > :15:31.of economic progress. As for what they give and do for the rest of the
:15:32. > :15:42.population. It's on education that Boris Johnson
:15:43. > :15:46.is most clearly positioning himself to the right of David Cameron by
:15:47. > :15:52.calling for the return of academic selection. He accuses his party of
:15:53. > :15:56.hypocrisy on grammar schools. I remember once sitting in a meeting
:15:57. > :16:00.at the Shadow Tory education team and listening with mounting
:16:01. > :16:03.disbelief to a conversation where aall agreed it would be political
:16:04. > :16:07.madness to try to bring back the grammar schools. Well, I happen Tono
:16:08. > :16:13.that most of the people in that room were able to make use, as parents,
:16:14. > :16:17.only some of the most viciously selected schools in the country --
:16:18. > :16:21.selective schools in the country. Being Mayor of London has not always
:16:22. > :16:24.given Boris the chance to endear himself to the right of his party.
:16:25. > :16:30.If anything he's had to tack left. He may argue for a smaller small
:16:31. > :16:32.small estate, but he's spending millions on the transport
:16:33. > :16:33.infrastructure. Then there are his calls for a higher living wage for
:16:34. > :16:44.Londoners. When in China, Boris is keen to
:16:45. > :16:49.emphasise house open London is to the rest of the world. But last
:16:50. > :16:53.night, he expressed frustration at the Government's immigration policy.
:16:54. > :16:58.It's time to sort out the immigration system so we end what is
:16:59. > :17:02.currently a totally mad situation. At the moment we are claiming to
:17:03. > :17:08.have capped immigration by having a 60% reduction in New Zealanders when
:17:09. > :17:13.we can do nothing to stop the entire population of Transylvania, charming
:17:14. > :17:22.though many of them, almost all of them doubtless are, from trying to
:17:23. > :17:26.pitch camp at Marble Arch. Boris's direction of travel on
:17:27. > :17:30.Europe can be confusing. He was once a hero to Euro-Sceptics, but
:17:31. > :17:36.recently he said he's narrowly in favour of staying in the EU. Last
:17:37. > :17:42.nights, he played it safe, attacking eurocrats, definitely the low
:17:43. > :17:46.hanging fruit of Europe bashing. They make us pay our taxes for Greek
:17:47. > :17:51.olive groves which possibly don't exist. Then I read the other day
:17:52. > :17:56.they say that we can't dip - have you seen this - we can't dip our
:17:57. > :18:00.bread in pots of olive oil in restaurants. We think we are
:18:01. > :18:06.sophisticated enough to use olive oil and then say we can't.
:18:07. > :18:13.Boris Johnson said he's more likely to be reincarnated as a baked bean,
:18:14. > :18:17.or decapitated by a phrase bithan become Prime Minister. But with
:18:18. > :18:27.scenes like this, doesn't that just sound like piffle -- by a frisbee.
:18:28. > :18:30.The Government is asking the big six energy firms not to raise prices on
:18:31. > :18:36.the basis of Government policies until the middle of 2015. What
:18:37. > :18:41.should we make of this? Is it blatant conceptual drivery or
:18:42. > :18:48.something much more subtle -- thievery. Danny fin Kell Stein of
:18:49. > :18:55.the Times and Olly Grender join us, along with John McAteer nan. Welcome
:18:56. > :19:00.to you all. -- McTiernan. This is just coming out, John, what we
:19:01. > :19:05.understand from industry sources, that suppliers are being asked to
:19:06. > :19:10.keep bills on hold. What do you make of that? Imitation is obviously the
:19:11. > :19:14.form of flattery. What we are seeing at the moment is the Tory party in
:19:15. > :19:24.two minds about what it wants to do. Does it want to go nasty or does it
:19:25. > :19:29.want to go touchy feely and do payday loans and do this on
:19:30. > :19:42.electricity prices? It's usteringly incoherent. You can go to the nasty
:19:43. > :19:47.end of TfL -- end of the market or go the other way. All that stuff
:19:48. > :19:50.about statism and national and 1983 manifestos after Ed Miliband... I
:19:51. > :19:54.thought I was going to agree with you, then I didn't. There is a
:19:55. > :19:57.dilemma and the Conservative Party is trying to weigh up what to do.
:19:58. > :20:00.It's between whether to make the pure argument we have put the
:20:01. > :20:03.economy right and run on growth, or try to do something about
:20:04. > :20:08.cost-of-living in the short run which is very difficult.
:20:09. > :20:14.That is actually a genuine dilemma. Clearly, they have decided they've
:20:15. > :20:20.got to do something about the cost of heading up that argument in order
:20:21. > :20:24.to allow them to make the argument about deficit, debt and Britain's on
:20:25. > :20:29.the right track, don't turn back. I think it's hard because if you do
:20:30. > :20:32.that, you look as though you are looking at some of the initiatives
:20:33. > :20:35.by Labour. You have to do something about the cost-of-living because
:20:36. > :20:39.that's a large component of the indicators that make a successful
:20:40. > :20:44.election campaign. I think you are right about the dilemma, but I don't
:20:45. > :20:47.think there is a situation where the Tories sit around going, do you
:20:48. > :20:53.think we should be nasty or nice, it's absurd. We saw the same with
:20:54. > :20:57.payday loans which was very much seemed like a Labour initiative, to
:20:58. > :21:01.put a cap on prices there, and suddenly, ahead of the Autumn
:21:02. > :21:05.Statement? I'm not particularly in favour of what was done, but I can
:21:06. > :21:11.see the political logic of it again because it's about cost and it's
:21:12. > :21:15.about cost-of-living and also about trying to remove the sort of
:21:16. > :21:18.economic negatives that you might get, I think maybe cigarette
:21:19. > :21:22.packaging comes in as well. You have got this dilemma all the time where
:21:23. > :21:25.you are trying to cut off the negatives, if you possibly can,
:21:26. > :21:28.without giving the impression that you are allowing the opposition to
:21:29. > :21:33.set the agenda. That's a difficult balance. Also it's about
:21:34. > :21:39.anticipating what is coming up. In both cases, on payday loans and on
:21:40. > :21:43.cigarette packaging, you know, kind of David Cameron knew that in the
:21:44. > :21:47.House of Lords he was going to get into significant trouble because
:21:48. > :21:53.there were Lib Dems who were going to move on them, both of those
:21:54. > :21:57.things. On the energy companies, first off, they've still got ?1
:21:58. > :22:02.billion that they haven't spent on all the eco measures. It's pretty
:22:03. > :22:05.disgraceful that they are still sitting on them. They have plenty
:22:06. > :22:09.they can spend. Strikes me as a reasonable thing to a ask of them,
:22:10. > :22:13.but what my concern is, and I think this is where Lynton Crosby might be
:22:14. > :22:18.right in his advice, which is not the nasty nice, you know, I kind of
:22:19. > :22:22.sense what Danny is saying about that, but he is right when he tells
:22:23. > :22:26.David Cameron, stop getting dragged on to agendas of the Labour Party
:22:27. > :22:33.and of the media. I wonder where this leaves the green
:22:34. > :22:38.taxes or "the green crap". Does that mean taxation for all the green
:22:39. > :22:44.stuff does go? Elections are settled by not small political rows but by
:22:45. > :22:47.very big economic forces. The Conservative Party's going to have
:22:48. > :22:51.votes running for it at the next general election more strongly than
:22:52. > :22:54.people anticipated in the six months before and after. The question is
:22:55. > :23:00.whether it will have real disposable income so it has to choose to do
:23:01. > :23:07.things about what will affect the disposable income. The danger is you
:23:08. > :23:13.see the intellectual initiative, you make Labour look more economically
:23:14. > :23:17.competent. What is interesting is that polls say that they love the
:23:18. > :23:21.energy freeze strategy but they don't believe it which is really an
:23:22. > :23:26.Ed Miliband problem fundamentally isn't it? Danny is right, there are
:23:27. > :23:30.two frames. There is a frame of, you have taken the pain, and we have
:23:31. > :23:34.restored the growth, now you are going to get some gain out of that.
:23:35. > :23:37.Or there is the touchy feely Ed Miliband, I feel your pain and we
:23:38. > :23:42.should do something about it. The difficulty for the Tories is, they
:23:43. > :23:48.are not sure which frame they are purr suing and if you mix the frames
:23:49. > :23:52.you muddle your message -- pursuing. The public's big doubt is, I like Ed
:23:53. > :23:57.Miliband's policies, will he do them? It talks the point that he's
:23:58. > :24:01.got to find a way of presenting and representing his promise on the
:24:02. > :24:04.issues. He's aided by the fact the Government keep moving on to his
:24:05. > :24:07.ground so he's allowed to talk about it. The Labour Party are failing at
:24:08. > :24:11.the moment in prosecuting the case that they are determining and
:24:12. > :24:21.dictating the agenda and they've got to get on to that space too.
:24:22. > :24:25.That is down to the electorate. What I think most of all is important for
:24:26. > :24:28.the Labour Party at the moment and what I found extraordinary about the
:24:29. > :24:31.press release that came out today, it was by the way the press
:24:32. > :24:35.officer's nightmare press release saying we are going to be and larger
:24:36. > :24:41.and put some organisers on the ground. It was just the kind of
:24:42. > :24:46.thing that you never do. It's not strategic.
:24:47. > :24:50.ALL SPEAK AT ONCE The long-term plan. Bnchts but it's
:24:51. > :24:53.the kind of show me don't tell me kind of classic mistake that both
:24:54. > :24:57.the other political parties are making I think. If you are devising
:24:58. > :25:01.a strategy and have to make this choice for the Conservative Party, I
:25:02. > :25:07.think you would calculate that you're unlikely to succeed the
:25:08. > :25:12.electric election initiative. I don't think people think of Ed
:25:13. > :25:15.Miliband has a dynamic person. Even if they are wrong, that's not what
:25:16. > :25:18.they think. Think in you are making that calculation, you think, I have
:25:19. > :25:21.a big enough advantage to risk trying to do something about
:25:22. > :25:27.cost-of-living in order to try to neutralise that as much as I can and
:25:28. > :25:31.make people feel better. Presumably though there is a tipping point if
:25:32. > :25:34.they like his policies enough, that happens, right? There is a problem
:25:35. > :25:37.too in that David Cameron's no longer who they thought he was when
:25:38. > :25:40.they voted for him. That's a difficulty for the Tories that they
:25:41. > :25:45.have to deal with that he was going to be the man that saved the NHS,
:25:46. > :25:49.and that's broken. He was, let sunshine have the day, and whatever
:25:50. > :25:57.he said yesterday about immigration was not sunshine having the day. I
:25:58. > :26:01.agree that people were never absolutely blown away at the next
:26:02. > :26:11.general election by David Cameron. That's not why he didn't win. If you
:26:12. > :26:14.are devising Conservative election strategy, obviously I think a
:26:15. > :26:20.reasonable fixed point is that Ed Miliband has a lot of structural
:26:21. > :26:23.advantages and Labour do, but Ed Miliband doesn't convince people
:26:24. > :26:29.that much whether he should or not and therefore what you do is...
:26:30. > :26:35.Before we carry on with that, Nick Clegg's line on this today was that
:26:36. > :26:40.it was bold conservatism I guess you would call it. Is he missing the
:26:41. > :26:47.point of Boris? No. I mean I think Boris is, as usual, all over the
:26:48. > :26:50.place. So he's just impossible. It must be maddening for the
:26:51. > :26:58.Conservatives, because one minute he's one thing, the next he's the
:26:59. > :27:03.next thing. He said things about David Cameron and George Osborne? I
:27:04. > :27:07.must be missing something. I do not understand the row concerning
:27:08. > :27:11.observing the disparity in the population. Social mobility, the
:27:12. > :27:14.issue with that is that people have different talents. He was talking
:27:15. > :27:20.about if you are down there, you may end up having to stay there, you
:27:21. > :27:25.know. Maybe he thinks that, but he did not say that. It sounds like he
:27:26. > :27:29.said that. It was the language and tone of contempt for fellow human
:27:30. > :27:32.beings which had a nasty tone. That's not a fair reading of his
:27:33. > :27:35.speech. That's what people maybe hoped he said but it was not a fair
:27:36. > :27:39.reading. Thank you all very much indeed.
:27:40. > :27:42.If tuition fees were meant to solve a problem, making academia more
:27:43. > :27:46.sustainable for the future, the latest reports suggest the project
:27:47. > :27:51.might be failing. The National Audit Office believes more than ?5 billion
:27:52. > :27:54.of public money paid out in student loans will be unaccounted for
:27:55. > :28:04.because the Government doesn't know who owes it and whether it can pay
:28:05. > :28:08.it back? Martin Williams is a part-time
:28:09. > :28:13.teacher at a sixth form college in Southampton. He spent five years
:28:14. > :28:17.studying fine art, graphics and photography but doesn't earn enough
:28:18. > :28:21.to pay back his own student loan. I've actually probably paid nothing.
:28:22. > :28:24.I probably haven't even dented the interest that's incurred from it
:28:25. > :28:28.because I've not been in employment to take me over the threshold of the
:28:29. > :28:32.minimum payment. Like the other teachers, he gives teenagers career
:28:33. > :28:38.advice. Some ask whether student loans are effectively free money?
:28:39. > :28:42.A lot of them ask me what have I had to pay back and I'm honest with them
:28:43. > :28:45.and said I've not been in a position where I've had to pay anything back
:28:46. > :28:51.because I've not earned enough yet. In that sense, it does come across
:28:52. > :28:55.that it's cost me nothing to do, so I do advise them to make sure that
:28:56. > :29:04.they are aware of the terms. I do tell them about the terms.
:29:05. > :29:10.Britain needs more highly skilled workers the Government often say. By
:29:11. > :29:15.2035, they expect nearly 500,00018-year-olds will start
:29:16. > :29:19.university every autumn. As student numbers rise and
:29:20. > :29:25.individual tuition fees rise, so the impact on the overall student loan
:29:26. > :29:29.bill will be dramatic. Even now, ?46 billion of loan repayments are
:29:30. > :29:36.outstanding and it's estimated that in 30 years' time, that'll more than
:29:37. > :29:39.quadruple to ?200 billion. More people are failing to pay back
:29:40. > :29:45.their loans. In 2010, it was estimated 28% of the
:29:46. > :29:50.debts would have to be written off. That's risen to 35% this year.
:29:51. > :29:54.The model that the Government used to model this system didn't take
:29:55. > :29:58.into account the recession, lower graduate earnings, the fact that
:29:59. > :30:02.women earn considerably less than men over their lifetime. From the
:30:03. > :30:06.beginning, the system has been shaky and it's a numbers fiddle, it moves
:30:07. > :30:12.the amount of money from the deficit to the debt.
:30:13. > :30:17.Since the student loan scheme ban over 20 years ago, nearly 370,000
:30:18. > :30:21.students have disappeared from its records. They might be working
:30:22. > :30:27.abroad, they might be unemployed here with the National Audit Office
:30:28. > :30:31.estimating they owe about ?5 billion and the student loan company is not
:30:32. > :30:34.doing enough to try to track them down.
:30:35. > :30:38.I don't think it's surprising. I is have a friend who's led me to
:30:39. > :30:42.believe that they are no longer in the country is so don't voluntarily
:30:43. > :30:46.repay the loan. They have never outright said it to me but they have
:30:47. > :30:51.implied they are no longer paying it. I don't think it's common. At
:30:52. > :30:56.the end of the day, the incentive is there if HMRC aren't chasing people
:30:57. > :31:00.once they go overseas. It's not surprising that people go abroad to
:31:01. > :31:02.avoid paying the loan back. Neither the Government nor the student loan
:31:03. > :31:06.company were available for interview. Though the loan company
:31:07. > :31:11.gave us a statement saying it would use the findings and recommendations
:31:12. > :31:16.from the report to help it further improve the way it secures the loan
:31:17. > :31:19.repayments due from all its bow rowers, including those who were
:31:20. > :31:25.overseas. Meanwhile, analysts say other
:31:26. > :31:29.sectors are likely to suffer. The The impact of overspending on
:31:30. > :31:36.loans is that you have to make up the short fall else where. The
:31:37. > :31:39.department can't make any savings in the short-term so have to look to
:31:40. > :31:44.other bits of the budget to make savings. That means further
:31:45. > :31:47.education, research funding, widening participation funding are
:31:48. > :31:51.all very vulnerable to cuts to try and offset the impact of
:31:52. > :31:57.overspending on loans. In 2010, the Conservatives came up with a new
:31:58. > :32:01.vision for higher education, raising tuition fees would secure its
:32:02. > :32:04.Financial Future. Student loans would make university affordable for
:32:05. > :32:08.all. Reluctantly, the Liberal Democrats
:32:09. > :32:17.accepted it, but this report shows that picture is seriously flawed.
:32:18. > :32:21.Newsnight has learned of a plan to destroy Syria's chemical weapons at
:32:22. > :32:24.sea, using a US Navy auxiliary vessel. Industry sources told us the
:32:25. > :32:28.plan will put a mobile destruction plant aboard that uses water to
:32:29. > :32:35.dilute the chemicals to safer levels. Mark Urban has the story.
:32:36. > :32:39.Talk us through this plan, Mark? We have been looking into the
:32:40. > :32:43.detail. There's a very ambitious schedule been set for the agreement
:32:44. > :32:46.to disarm Syria of the weapons and they are all supposed to be out of
:32:47. > :32:50.the country by the end of this year, just a few weeks away. How is it
:32:51. > :32:55.going to happen when all of the countries that have been canvassed
:32:56. > :32:58.about being the place where these things would be destroyed have
:32:59. > :33:03.refused to have it? It seems that the plan that's now come to the
:33:04. > :33:10.front is to do it on board this US Navy auxiliary, a big ship, a roll
:33:11. > :33:14.on roll off ship, the MV Cape Ray imported in Vicki Young ya, it will
:33:15. > :33:20.have a special plant placed on it and that's what will happen. Before
:33:21. > :33:26.we get to that point though, it will have to be moved -- Virginia. Most
:33:27. > :33:31.are being concentrated in happen a dozen sites in Damascus. They'll be
:33:32. > :33:38.moved up around the Lebanese border up to the north, then the east, to
:33:39. > :33:43.the ports of either Tartus and Lattakia. 200-plus contaunter-size
:33:44. > :33:49.loads on the quayside will be collected then. There's still some
:33:50. > :33:54.doubt about whether the Cape Ray will go into the ports, it's a US
:33:55. > :33:59.Navy vessel. Others might have to shift it from the quayside to the
:34:00. > :34:02.cape Ray. But once on board, the destructive process of diluting it
:34:03. > :34:06.can commence. Well, talk us through that? Where
:34:07. > :34:15.does it go? Does it end up in the sea? Well, it's a very important
:34:16. > :34:22.question. There are still some unanswered aspects to that. Earlier
:34:23. > :34:26.I spoke to a chemical weapons expert and asked if that was the end of it
:34:27. > :34:30.once they are on board? It's not going to be the end of the problems
:34:31. > :34:36.because it's going to be 30 tonnes of mustard gas and 600 tonnes of
:34:37. > :34:42.toxic precursors that will be destroyed on the Cape Ray. It will
:34:43. > :34:46.produce about seven million litres of toxic effluent which will need to
:34:47. > :34:52.be gotten rid of somewhere. You can't take to it the sea, it will
:34:53. > :34:57.have to be taken to a commercial facility. They have argue that that
:34:58. > :35:01.effluent is none more toxic than other things in the ocean. You can
:35:02. > :35:04.see the possibility that the ship could become like a plague vessel
:35:05. > :35:12.that no-one will have. So how would we even be sure that they'd all
:35:13. > :35:15.gone? Well, the organisation that's carrying it out, the
:35:16. > :35:22.Netherlands-based organisation, that's about to get the Nobel Prize
:35:23. > :35:26.feel confident that their inventory has been successfully compiled and
:35:27. > :35:30.that they can remove it. There are many rumours persisting that some
:35:31. > :35:34.small quantities may have slipped through their fingers, including
:35:35. > :35:40.with rebel groups. Mark Urban, thank you very much.
:35:41. > :35:44.What happens when you choose to turn your back on your parents' religion,
:35:45. > :35:48.particularly when they're people who hold their faith dear? We often
:35:49. > :35:56.focus on those converting, but what about those who leave? In extreme
:35:57. > :36:00.cases, they are punished by families. Newsnight spoke to three
:36:01. > :36:14.people from devout Islamic backgrounds who've lost their faith.
:36:15. > :36:27.These pictures are the only pictures I have of my early childhood. They
:36:28. > :36:30.were taken before my mother became observant and they remind me of a
:36:31. > :36:45.happier time. When you have to lie as much as you
:36:46. > :36:50.do, it's like when you are not a believer amongst the believers, it's
:36:51. > :37:06.really just drains you, it drains you in every single way possible.
:37:07. > :37:17.I felt isolation. I neat I was being rejected, demonised. I felt that my
:37:18. > :37:20.thoughts weren't being respected and it was harder because I knew that I
:37:21. > :37:39.would have problems at home. I just prayed, please don't let me
:37:40. > :37:43.lose my faith. That's all I wanted. But it was sort of at that point as
:37:44. > :37:48.well that I just did not feel the connection to God any more and I
:37:49. > :37:53.felt like all my pleas were just going into empty space.
:37:54. > :38:00.I knew how much Islam meant to her, that it was everything. So to... I
:38:01. > :38:06.knew that it would be something, you know, grave in her opinion.
:38:07. > :38:13.Something that would potentially change our relationship for ever.
:38:14. > :38:26.I was wrong I was round about 15 years plus when I told them. And
:38:27. > :38:34.they didn't receive that well. I got abuse from my mum. Swearing at me,
:38:35. > :38:42.telling me that Allah would be angry with me and that I would bring a
:38:43. > :38:44.curse upon my family. I remember her reaction to this day, you know. She
:38:45. > :38:59.began to cry. It was upsetting because, you know,
:39:00. > :39:06.being the oldest child, I was always a source of pride for my mum. She
:39:07. > :39:10.looked at me. I think it really registered with her and she said to
:39:11. > :39:17.me "Amal, if it's between you and Allah, I choose Allah". And that's
:39:18. > :39:27.when I felt that the lines were clearly drawn, that, you know, I'd
:39:28. > :39:32.crossed a point of no return. One of the uncles got in front of the car,
:39:33. > :39:42.the other uncle who was at the back of the car. I was scared. One of the
:39:43. > :39:46.uncles had been in and out of prison for fighting. I was terrified. It
:39:47. > :39:49.was only half way through the journey I knew something was wrong.
:39:50. > :39:59.It was only when I got to the airport that I found out that I was
:40:00. > :40:02.due to a flight to Pakistan. I was threatened, either get on the flight
:40:03. > :40:07.or he'd beat the hell out of me. Why did they want to take you back to
:40:08. > :40:11.Pakistan? I suppose in their eyes, I was out of control. I don't want to
:40:12. > :40:14.think about the possibility of what would happen if they found out. I'm
:40:15. > :40:30.just too scared. I know I'd lose them. Especially
:40:31. > :40:37.because all my mum cares about is that I'm a Muslim and then that's
:40:38. > :40:42.the one thing that you've gone and said that you can't do for her. I
:40:43. > :40:48.would consciously call home and ask to speak to her and she'd refuse to
:40:49. > :40:54.speak to me. My sister would pick up the phone and I'd chat to her for a
:40:55. > :41:09.while and say "can I spook to mum? " And shieed "no, mum doesn't want to
:41:10. > :41:13.speak to you". I remember my mum actual actually... You know, I felt
:41:14. > :41:24.awful about what I was putting my mum through. A prayer is where you
:41:25. > :41:28.ascend to the heavens. You ascend to Allah. Then you will have
:41:29. > :41:33.surrendered. Nobody should discriminate a person just because
:41:34. > :41:39.they have left faith. Families are not for judging. We are not judges.
:41:40. > :41:42.We are simple Searle vats of God. Those people who prejudice
:41:43. > :41:48.individuals for leaving the faith. They have misunderstood. Islam is
:41:49. > :41:51.about embracing even your enemy. Islam is about teaching those who
:41:52. > :41:55.may not have learned the faith properly. Islam is about sharing the
:41:56. > :41:59.goodness of the faith. It's not manifested if you are going to
:42:00. > :42:02.outcast them, prejudice them, throw them out of your mosque and your
:42:03. > :42:06.centre, your community, you would not speak to them. It's not a very
:42:07. > :42:19.loving way of approaching the human being. Leaving your faith is a shock
:42:20. > :42:23.for your immediate family. Sometimes people have a pressure, thinking
:42:24. > :42:28.that once the pressure is exorcised, the person will think about it,
:42:29. > :42:32.reconsider the matter, maybe come back to the faith. And by pressure,
:42:33. > :43:09.do you mean? into the enemy, so I'm not just
:43:10. > :43:14.going to risk and go into that battle for no reason. If we
:43:15. > :43:20.understand Islam as a comprehensive way of life, which is, then of
:43:21. > :43:25.course leaving Islam would change everything and, as I told you, it
:43:26. > :43:30.includes a change in the political allegiance, the social life, so it's
:43:31. > :43:36.treachery to Islam. If he has committed that, then in an Islamic
:43:37. > :43:46.estate before an Islamic court, it's like the punishment of treason. It
:43:47. > :43:58.is treason. That punishment is? As you know, it's a capital punishment.
:43:59. > :44:06.I do feel sad slightly when I think about my family and I do wish things
:44:07. > :44:13.were different. But I'm very happy in my life.
:44:14. > :44:18.I don't know what the future holds for me yet. I don't know it. It's
:44:19. > :44:22.just changed everything. You don't know how you are going to do
:44:23. > :44:33.anything any more and everything you do is going to be completely on your
:44:34. > :44:41.own. My parents had another baby boy when I left home. I never met him. I
:44:42. > :44:49.want to go home and hug my family that I miss.
:44:50. > :44:54.Voices of those who've lost or changed their faith and their
:44:55. > :45:01.families. Lets's take you through tomorrow's papers before we go.
:45:02. > :45:06.Financial Times has the lead story, Khan Khanny -- Carney ditches cheap
:45:07. > :45:09.home loans. And there is the look at the debt restructure of Co-op Bank
:45:10. > :45:14.which has sold almost its entire investment in the lenders since the
:45:15. > :45:21.revelations of Paul Flowers emerged. The Times has a picture of Peaches
:45:22. > :45:25.Geldof who Tweeted the names of women who let the lost prophet
:45:26. > :45:31.singer abuse their babies. That's her Tweet. The Guardian, bank puts
:45:32. > :45:34.brakes on amid fear of house price bubble and the Mail, half of
:45:35. > :45:38.dementia patients failed by the NHS and that picture of Charles Saatchi
:45:39. > :45:45.at court. That is all from us tonight.
:45:46. > :45:48.As a special treat, a dubious one, we thought we'd bring you a casual
:45:49. > :45:55.modest Newsnight first tonight. It's a live rocket launch from Cape
:45:56. > :46:01.Canaveral. Unfortunate Liz though, the company behind Falcon 9 proved
:46:02. > :46:08.as erratic at time keeping, as we are, but instead, here are some live
:46:09. > :46:44.pictures of a stationary rocket at the bottom. Good night.
:46:45. > :46:50.Hello. Quite a change for the weather on Friday. Bright and breezy
:46:51. > :46:52.for many. Strong winds a feature across Scotland.