:00:14. > :00:19.they estimated that 23 British workers would not be employed. Now
:00:20. > :00:23.it turns out to be wrong, our policy editor has a Newsnight exclusive.
:00:24. > :00:29.Cameron's team are keeping it hidden. Apparently this... It is our
:00:30. > :00:32.ambition to be one of the most transparent governments in the
:00:33. > :00:37.world, open about what we do, and crucially about what we spend.
:00:38. > :00:45.Doesn't apply when it comes to immigration. Also tonight, there's
:00:46. > :00:51.gunfire in Sevastopol and talk of the G8 turning into the G 7, is it
:00:52. > :00:54.all feeling a bit Cold War? At the Kremlin-funded TV station, Russia
:00:55. > :00:58.today, things aren't going quite to plan. Just because I work here
:00:59. > :01:02.doesn't mean I don't have editorial independence and I can't stress
:01:03. > :01:06.enough how strongly I am against any state intervention in a sovereign
:01:07. > :01:14.nation's affairs, what Russia did is wrong.
:01:15. > :01:23.Good evening. Immigration is the issue on which the Government has
:01:24. > :01:28.beener rid relent -- harried relentlessly by UKIP. Most recently
:01:29. > :01:31.concerns about an influx of immigrants, specifically from
:01:32. > :01:36.Romania and Bulgaria, has led David Cameron to call for EU curbs on the
:01:37. > :01:40.free movement of workers. Newsnight has learned that attitudes to and
:01:41. > :01:44.decisions on immigration by the coalition have been predicated at
:01:45. > :01:49.least partly on analysis that is flaw and what's more, they know it.
:01:50. > :01:53.Our policy editor is here. What have you discovered? It turns out that
:01:54. > :01:58.Downing Street has been suppressing a very important new piece of Civil
:01:59. > :02:01.Service research. What this relates to is the relationship between
:02:02. > :02:04.immigration on one hand, unemployment among British people on
:02:05. > :02:07.the other. Theresa May is fond of making a strong relationship between
:02:08. > :02:12.the two, but this new research shows that the relationship is very, very
:02:13. > :02:15.weak and that the effect of the extra unemployment caused by
:02:16. > :02:19.immigration is actually very, very small. This is going to make it much
:02:20. > :02:24.harder to make the case for cutting immigration. Imagine your a Home
:02:25. > :02:30.Secretary trying to sell a tough immigration policy. How do you do
:02:31. > :02:34.it? Well, you need a killer fact. So we asked the migration advisory
:02:35. > :02:37.committee to look at the effects of immigration on jobs and their
:02:38. > :02:41.conclusions were stark, for every additional 100 immigrants, they
:02:42. > :02:47.estimated that 23 British workers would not be employed. That piece of
:02:48. > :02:53.research is known in the trade as the displacement number, and it's
:02:54. > :02:59.pretty handy for the Home Secretary. It's hard to make a strong case for
:03:00. > :03:01.cutting immigration on purely economic grounds. And a lot of
:03:02. > :03:06.people oppose immigration restrictions. Some of them are
:03:07. > :03:10.coalition ministers. When the Home Office found a statistic showing
:03:11. > :03:18.that new arrivals put Brits out of work, they really treasured it.
:03:19. > :03:25.There's just one problem. It's wrong. We've now seen exclusively by
:03:26. > :03:29.Newsnight shows new research by the Civil Service undermines that claim.
:03:30. > :03:33.The true impact is much smaller. Still, it's not been published.
:03:34. > :03:40.That's because Downing Street is refusing to let anyone see it. It's
:03:41. > :03:43.simply much too embarrassing. Some Government departments never
:03:44. > :03:50.believed the original displacement research. Internal Civil Service
:03:51. > :03:53.e-mails show the Treasury was one of the ministries where officials were
:03:54. > :03:58.concerned the analysis won't robust enough. The same exchanges show
:03:59. > :04:01.there is a consensus in favour of the new research, also that civil
:04:02. > :04:06.servants think it should be released. One official wrote that it
:04:07. > :04:12.would be difficult to keep it solely for internal use. Cameron's team are
:04:13. > :04:15.still keeping it hidden. A parentally this... It is our
:04:16. > :04:20.ambition to be one of the most transparent Governments in the
:04:21. > :04:24.world. Open about what we do and crucially about what we spend.
:04:25. > :04:28.Doesn't apply, when it comes to immigration. Arguments about
:04:29. > :04:32.displacement figures may sound academic, but they're going to get
:04:33. > :04:39.more important. Immigration reform is a flagship policy for the
:04:40. > :04:43.Government and it's in trouble. When the coalition took office, net
:04:44. > :04:48.immigration into Britain stood at 235,000 people a year. So, the new
:04:49. > :04:55.Government promised to reduce that down to below 100,000 people a year
:04:56. > :05:01.by 2015. How's it done? Well, it had some early successes. It did manage
:05:02. > :05:05.to reduce the net inflow fairly substantially. However, the latest
:05:06. > :05:10.statistics show it's rising again. The Government is now almost certain
:05:11. > :05:15.to miss its immigration targets. This is focussing attention on the
:05:16. > :05:19.target itself. The Government always talks about net migration, that's
:05:20. > :05:24.the total number of people coming here minus the total number of
:05:25. > :05:28.people leaving. Some critics support the idea of tighter immigration
:05:29. > :05:33.controls, but think this is the wrong target. For people who are
:05:34. > :05:38.facing the pressure of large numbers of immigrants coming in, it's about
:05:39. > :05:42.the absolute number and the pressure on public services. The net number
:05:43. > :05:45.doesn't really matter to them. The fact they can't get access to a
:05:46. > :05:49.school place for their child, it doesn't matter to them that some
:05:50. > :05:58.elderly couple from Surrey have moved to Majorca. In truth, there's
:05:59. > :06:03.no single killer economic fact on immigration for or against. Much of
:06:04. > :06:08.the concern about migration is, in any case, a question of culture, not
:06:09. > :06:13.arithmetic. Even so, you can expect a lot of argument about displacement
:06:14. > :06:17.in the coming years. If the Government doesn't keep the numbers
:06:18. > :06:23.hidden, that is. I'm joined now by the Liberal
:06:24. > :06:26.Democrat MP Julian Huppert who sits on the Home Affairs Select Committee
:06:27. > :06:31.and the by the Conservative MP, Stephen Barkley. The Government of
:06:32. > :06:33.which you are a part would appear to be sitting on data that shows
:06:34. > :06:36.immigration is not so much of a problem and you're part of that
:06:37. > :06:39.Government. I knew nothing about this until today. It's obvious this
:06:40. > :06:44.report should be published as quickly as possible. We should be
:06:45. > :06:49.making decisions based on the best data. That shows we benefit
:06:50. > :06:52.economically very substantially from immigration. Whether it's terms of
:06:53. > :06:56.fiscal payments, people paying more in than they take out in benefits.
:06:57. > :07:01.Whether it's the changes we see here or in terms of employment. We know
:07:02. > :07:04.from the centre of entrepreneurs, foreign-born entrepreneurs employ 1.
:07:05. > :07:08.16 million people in this country. That's fantastic. You heard your
:07:09. > :07:10.leader say there that we aim to be one of the most transparent
:07:11. > :07:13.governments in the world. Clearly that's not the case. It is the case.
:07:14. > :07:18.It's the Government that commissioned this report. This was
:07:19. > :07:22.an area where - It has had it since November. Merely a matter of weeks.
:07:23. > :07:27.I think that's four months in my books. Well, the data is evolve ng.
:07:28. > :07:31.Just two weeks ago, the Permanent Secretary of the Home Office was in
:07:32. > :07:36.my constituency looking at data on the impacts of migration in
:07:37. > :07:39.communities such as the Cambridgeshire Fens. It is right
:07:40. > :07:41.officials are looking at the accuracy of the data, the idea that
:07:42. > :07:46.the Government is not transparent, when they have commissioned this
:07:47. > :07:49.report, is a nonsense. Of course... The Home Office have handed it to
:07:50. > :07:54.Downing Street and Downing Street is not doing anything with it. It shows
:07:55. > :07:58.that the impact of unemployment in this country, through immigration,
:07:59. > :08:02.is minimal. It is quite different to what trees what May's most re-Kently
:08:03. > :08:12.been saying. It's patently not true that the impact is minimal. You
:08:13. > :08:15.refute the numbers? The fact that the civil servants are still
:08:16. > :08:19.refining that data, looking at constituencies like mine, if one
:08:20. > :08:23.looks at data for example from the borders technology, we know it's
:08:24. > :08:27.very inaccurate, measuring the localised impact. You think that,
:08:28. > :08:31.you don't think there's any need to change immigration policy? Of course
:08:32. > :08:35.one looks at the data as it evolves. I'm saying that the idea that the
:08:36. > :08:40.impact on constituencies like mine where there's a big impact on public
:08:41. > :08:44.services, on housing, on wage deflation, on many issues, is one
:08:45. > :08:48.that should not be ignored. It's actually, essentially it's what
:08:49. > :08:53.Chris said, you can argue over the figures, there's a cultural issue?
:08:54. > :08:55.Yeah, there is disagreement about all this. There's no doubt there are
:08:56. > :08:59.problems which come with immigration. Have you to provide
:09:00. > :09:04.support for school places, for housing, all of that. Overall, we
:09:05. > :09:08.benefit socially, culturally and we benefit financially. We do need to
:09:09. > :09:13.do more to crack down on people who don't pay the national minimum wage.
:09:14. > :09:24.There are issues around that. The Home Office, we understand, civil
:09:25. > :09:30.servants seem to believe that the bicivil servants are more
:09:31. > :09:34.pro-immigration taking a position from Vince Cable. The Home Office
:09:35. > :09:37.response was very odd. It said every department is wrong other than the
:09:38. > :09:40.Home theHome Office. Vince Cable has known about this as well since
:09:41. > :09:43.November, I suppose he's toeing the coalition line, is he? I'm not sure
:09:44. > :09:46.it's up to Vince Cable to leak things that haven't been approved.
:09:47. > :09:48.The real question is why David Cameron is trying to block it.
:09:49. > :09:51.That's the key definition. We have to get this right. We need to
:09:52. > :09:58.provide the support. It's worrying when you see the scaremongering that
:09:59. > :10:04.you saw with Romania and Bulgaria immigration. The number of Tory MPs
:10:05. > :10:08.who were worried about that, seem to be like the numbers who came in from
:10:09. > :10:11.January. We need the right decisions here to help the economy. You want
:10:12. > :10:16.to go into the next election calling for a significant increase in
:10:17. > :10:18.immigration I'm sure the British people will give you a clear
:10:19. > :10:23.message. What is clear in constituencies like mine is there
:10:24. > :10:28.has been a heavy impact, localised impact, from what is a national
:10:29. > :10:31.policy. It's right that the Government commissioned research on
:10:32. > :10:34.that. Far from a lack of transparency, the Government is
:10:35. > :10:39.commended for doing the research. But you're saying, no, no this
:10:40. > :10:42.research is finished. It has been from the Home Office to Downing
:10:43. > :10:45.Street since November. It's not an ongoing thing. This is new research
:10:46. > :10:49.which shows that the figures that Theresa May was talking about,
:10:50. > :10:52.increasingly about displacement are wrong. So therefore, do you think
:10:53. > :10:56.the Government should publish these figures? The Government should
:10:57. > :11:00.publish the figures of research which it's accurate. It's for them
:11:01. > :11:04.to determine when that is. Wait a minute, you keep saying, when it's
:11:05. > :11:07.accurate. This is research by their civil servants. Are you doubting the
:11:08. > :11:11.civil servants? I'm saying that as we see frequently on the Public
:11:12. > :11:15.Accounts Committee, that the data is evolving. What we saw in my own
:11:16. > :11:20.constituencies two weeks ago, data for example from the census data,
:11:21. > :11:24.data from the e-borders software is still going through further work. So
:11:25. > :11:27.it's right that the research, as and when it's ready is published, the
:11:28. > :11:30.point is it's the Government themselves who have commissioned
:11:31. > :11:33.this research because the last Government's data was woefully
:11:34. > :11:37.inadequate. Want the Government to do with this? It's obvious the
:11:38. > :11:40.Government should publish it. The data will change. The economy will
:11:41. > :11:44.continue to move. You will never catch up. You need to have exit
:11:45. > :11:47.checks. It's disgraceful this country has no idea who comes into
:11:48. > :11:50.the country and who goes out. That has to be sorted out. Getting the
:11:51. > :11:54.Home Office to run its processes properly would provide a lot of
:11:55. > :11:57.reassurance. I would like to see people coming here to contribute to
:11:58. > :12:04.our economy, students who will pay fees, we should clamp down on abous
:12:05. > :12:08.and all of that. It's taking measures under the antislavery bill
:12:09. > :12:10.to tackle these areas. Both very indeed.
:12:11. > :12:14.The Shadow Immigration Minister is demanding tonight the publication of
:12:15. > :12:17.the suppressed report saying that the British people should have the
:12:18. > :12:22.information so they can make a judgment about immigration.
:12:23. > :12:25.The crisis in Ukraine increasingly reacceptbles a dangerous game of
:12:26. > :12:29.poker in which none of the players has a handle on the game. President
:12:30. > :12:32.Putin making his first public statement today since the stand-off
:12:33. > :12:37.began, said he would only use force as a last resort, just as shots rang
:12:38. > :12:44.out for the first time near evast poll in Crimea -- Sevastopol in
:12:45. > :12:50.Crimea. First tonight, here's Gabriel Gatehouse from the Crimean
:12:51. > :12:55.port. Up the hill they marched, armed only
:12:56. > :12:59.with flags. The Ukrainians were going to take back their own base.
:13:00. > :13:04.They were marching straight towards the Russian guns.
:13:05. > :13:11.GUNFIRE We're the masters here, the
:13:12. > :13:16.Ukrainians shout. As they follow their commander onward. Theirs not
:13:17. > :13:24.to reason why. They were warning shots, fired into the air. No-one
:13:25. > :13:34.was hurt. But shots nonetheless, the first in this phony war. Stop, or
:13:35. > :13:40.I'll shoot, shouts the Russian. His warning is ignored. America is with
:13:41. > :13:45.us, comes ape voice from the Ukrainian side. -- a vice from the
:13:46. > :13:52.Ukrainian side. It's tense, they're eye ball to eye ball. Eventually
:13:53. > :14:19.they agree to talk rather than fight. The men stood around waiting
:14:20. > :14:22.nervously. There were rifles to the right of
:14:23. > :14:29.them. Rifles to the left.
:14:30. > :14:34.As they waited, anxiety turned to bewilderment.
:14:35. > :14:41.This is absolutely crazy, it's a crazy situation. We are One Nation.
:14:42. > :14:45.We have one history, we have... I am personally have a lot of relatives
:14:46. > :14:52.in Russia. My father now in Russia after divorcing with my mother here.
:14:53. > :14:57.As the stand-off continued, we went back down the though the garrison
:14:58. > :15:01.town of Belbek. The Soviet Union could almost be alive and well here,
:15:02. > :15:05.except that unity is in short supply.
:15:06. > :15:10.This is a community being torn apart. Many genuinely welcome the
:15:11. > :15:16.Russian troops here. Many would like to see Crimea become part of Russia.
:15:17. > :15:28.But others don't. And for them, the future now looks an uncertain place.
:15:29. > :15:31.This man served 20 years in the Ukrainian military. They have a
:15:32. > :15:35.daughter and a second on the way in. Two years' time, he'll be eligible
:15:36. > :15:42.for his Ukrainian state pension, but what if, by then, his home is no
:15:43. > :15:46.longer in Ukraine? TRANSLATION: Thanks to Mr Putin, we
:15:47. > :15:51.might be forced to take Russian citizenship. Our pensions will be
:15:52. > :15:56.worthless. How will we live then? Or if we don't take Russian
:15:57. > :16:03.citizenship, will they kick us out to live in western Ukraine. They
:16:04. > :16:10.concede most many Belbek prefer President Putin to the chaotic
:16:11. > :16:16.leadership. But they think Russia is deluded. People think Russia is
:16:17. > :16:19.paradise and Russia will make things better but they have the same
:16:20. > :16:25.corruption we have, there's no difference. In the afternoon, the
:16:26. > :16:29.Ukrainian airmen returned from their confrontation with the Russians.
:16:30. > :16:32.Their supporters, many of them officers' wives, cheered them on,
:16:33. > :16:37.but they hadn't got what they wanted.
:16:38. > :16:41.They've come back from their talks with the Russians, they're marching
:16:42. > :16:46.into their own base here, but up there, the Russians are still
:16:47. > :16:51.holding the position on the hill. The men at the Belbek garrison say
:16:52. > :16:56.they'll defend the sovereignty in Crimea, even if it means a fight.
:16:57. > :16:59.The Ukrainians do have some guns of their own, but they are no match for
:17:00. > :17:04.Russian fire power. And they know that one shot from them could spark
:17:05. > :17:09.a real shooting match with catastrophic consequences.
:17:10. > :17:12.Grain re Gatehouse. The international opposition ranged
:17:13. > :17:16.against the Russian President may be all professing outrage and in John
:17:17. > :17:20.Kerry's case carrying a billion dollars to Kiev to help Ukraine
:17:21. > :17:25.stave off bankruptcy but each country has its own agenda and the
:17:26. > :17:32.trick is to work out if the public bear any resemblance to in dealing
:17:33. > :17:39.with arm-twisting of the state. Mark Urban comes in.
:17:40. > :17:43.The wires of global diplomacy are burning and today Moscow was at the
:17:44. > :17:47.centre of it with a detailed statement from President Putin for
:17:48. > :17:51.the first time in weeks of crisis. Speaking to a group of Russian
:17:52. > :17:58.journalists, he sought to moderate it.
:17:59. > :18:05.The tense situation in Crimea which may have led to the use of force, we
:18:06. > :18:11.have only increased security because they've been coming under threat,
:18:12. > :18:16.the military. The media has followed the line that Russians in Ukraine
:18:17. > :18:21.could be imminently murdered by fascist extremists.
:18:22. > :18:26.What's happening in Crimea is a personal matter for each and every
:18:27. > :18:32.Russian, the anchor said on Sunday's TV news. Today, many reacted with
:18:33. > :18:38.relief to the President's more consill tear language. Since today,
:18:39. > :18:47.it all basically disappeared because Russia is no long longer planning
:18:48. > :18:52.anything. Mr Putin said that he only asked for permission to use military
:18:53. > :18:57.force but he won't use it. As to the cradle of revolution
:18:58. > :19:03.itself, the US Secretary of State arrived in Kiev bearing $1 billion
:19:04. > :19:08.of aid and a message of political solidarity.
:19:09. > :19:18.We condemn the Russian Federation's act of aggression. We have
:19:19. > :19:22.throughout this moment evidence of a great transformation taking place.
:19:23. > :19:29.In that transformation, we will stand with the people of Ukraine.
:19:30. > :19:34.Visiting the open air shrine to the revolution's fallen, Mr Kerry didn't
:19:35. > :19:39.just bring that solidarity, he also brought proposals for sanctions on
:19:40. > :19:46.diplomatic and military exchanges with Russia, small steps but Europe
:19:47. > :19:50.remains disunited on the issue. In Brussels, officials met at the NATO
:19:51. > :19:55.and the EU, preparing the way for a summit on Thursday where they hope
:19:56. > :19:59.to give some practical dimension to the strong statements by Britain and
:20:00. > :20:02.others. We have made firm representatives to Russia. The Prime
:20:03. > :20:06.Minister spoke to President Putin on Friday and I spoke to Foreign
:20:07. > :20:09.Minister Lavrov on Saturday. We have urged Russia to meet its
:20:10. > :20:15.international commitments and to choose a path out of confrontation
:20:16. > :20:20.and military action. But the Russian calculation barring an outbreak of
:20:21. > :20:24.consensus on Thursday, is that the Downing Street memo man will have
:20:25. > :20:28.set the tone, that trade relations are too beneficial to Europe to
:20:29. > :20:34.jeopardise by any large scale sanctions.
:20:35. > :20:39.I hope that, together with our colleagues in the European Union, in
:20:40. > :20:45.the United States, we can and we must have solution. But the way to
:20:46. > :20:51.solution is not the way through different kinds of blamings and
:20:52. > :20:56.wrong decisions and sanctions. This is the way to the deadlock. If the
:20:57. > :21:00.Kremlin has paused, it can't be because of the threat of European
:21:01. > :21:04.sanctions. There are otherical layingses at work, not least the
:21:05. > :21:08.need to safeguard the Russian economy which, having dropped
:21:09. > :21:15.sharply in the markets yesterday, recovered a little with today's more
:21:16. > :21:20.optimistic message. Mark Urban. I'm joined by the former Foreign
:21:21. > :21:24.Secretary, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the UK Barrow chief of Russia and the
:21:25. > :21:29.former American ambassador to the United States who joins us from
:21:30. > :21:34.Florida, Nancy Soderbergh. Is there a feeling that Europe is not
:21:35. > :21:38.stepping up to the plate over the Ukraine crisis, Nancy Soderbergh?
:21:39. > :21:42.The focus right now is on the actions by Vladimir Putin which are
:21:43. > :21:48.more appropriate really for the 19th century than the 21st century. I
:21:49. > :21:50.think there were some frustrations that the Europeans didn't
:21:51. > :21:54.immediately join us in the sanctions. They were a little bit
:21:55. > :22:01.cautious and we were hopeful that they'd join us. We have to stand up
:22:02. > :22:08.as a United Front. Your feeling is that sanctions will do the trick?
:22:09. > :22:13.Well, we don't know. Sang shunts sometimes work, they sometimes don't
:22:14. > :22:17.-- sanctions. They never work if there's only one country doing them.
:22:18. > :22:20.The stronger chance to change the calculation of Vladimir Putin is if
:22:21. > :22:25.the United States and Europe act with one voice and have strong,
:22:26. > :22:32.economic sanctions, diplomatic sanctions, move to push them out of
:22:33. > :22:36.the G8 until they re restore a normal relationship with Ukraine and
:22:37. > :22:41.pull the troops out. We have seen this play book before in other areas
:22:42. > :22:48.and we have to stand up to it at this stage with Ukraine. Are strong
:22:49. > :22:56.sanctions taking Russia out of the G8 going to take Russia out of
:22:57. > :22:59.Crimea? I don't believe out of G8, no. So far, I've read, the Italian
:23:00. > :23:06.Foreign Minister's said that's probably not a good option. Going
:23:07. > :23:10.back a bit about 19th century politics in Russia, I think we, if
:23:11. > :23:17.my memory serves me right, it was in the 21st century that the US went
:23:18. > :23:22.into Iraq and Afghanistan and a whole load of other countries, so I
:23:23. > :23:29.would reserve judgment on that. What about sanctions? Effective. It
:23:30. > :23:34.defends on how big they are, how, what's the bite? Well, the bite
:23:35. > :23:40.isn't going to be coming from Europe any time soon is it, Malcolm
:23:41. > :23:43.Rifkind? We'll see whether classic diplomatic discussions with persuade
:23:44. > :23:48.Mr Putin first of all to recognise the need to respect Ukraine Koran
:23:49. > :23:52.territorial integrity and secondly to withdraw his troops back to
:23:53. > :23:56.Sevastopol. If he's not prepared to do that, I agree with Nancy
:23:57. > :24:00.Soderbergh that unless you have powerful financial sanctions, we are
:24:01. > :24:04.not going to get movement and I would argue further than that, that
:24:05. > :24:09.there's a stronger case for Europe imposing financial sanctions than
:24:10. > :24:11.the United States. But that is not what your Government is suggesting
:24:12. > :24:16.right now, it's not suggesting sanctions of any sort. The situation
:24:17. > :24:19.is that America, you know, by contrast, has very little trade with
:24:20. > :24:24.Russia, but the EU has a massive amount of trade with Russia and
:24:25. > :24:27.might harm the EU more than Russia? The British Governments and European
:24:28. > :24:31.Governments are being cautious and we are hoping that a softly-softly
:24:32. > :24:36.approach will work. I'm sceptical but it's worth waiting a few days to
:24:37. > :24:40.see if it does work. The reason Europe cannot rest on that approach
:24:41. > :24:44.is simple. This is the first time since 1945 that a European
:24:45. > :24:49.Government has used its troops to invade the territory of another
:24:50. > :24:57.European state. We cannot allow that to be... Do we forget Serbia?
:24:58. > :25:07.Milosevic never invaded. The actual fighting in Bosnia was by Serbs and
:25:08. > :25:12.Croats and Muslims. Nancy Soderbergh, do... Soft touch is not
:25:13. > :25:17.going to work here. Vladimir Putin is sitting in Russia looking at the
:25:18. > :25:21.US which, OK, giving a billion dollars and promising sanctions, the
:25:22. > :25:25.EU is divided as to what actually approach to take and there's no
:25:26. > :25:28.possibility really, truthfully, of any serious kind of intervention, is
:25:29. > :25:32.there? Well, I don't think we are talking
:25:33. > :25:35.about military intervention. The polls have called an Article 4
:25:36. > :25:40.meeting of miss that toe. You may see some action in NATO to make sure
:25:41. > :25:45.the Russians don't go beyond Ukraine, but a soft touch on
:25:46. > :25:52.diplomacy, President Putin couldn't care less and he's time and again
:25:53. > :25:57.not taken any note us of those actions. The Olympics, that shows
:25:58. > :26:00.disdain for the international community and hutzpah and the
:26:01. > :26:03.sanctions worked in places like Iran, there's no doubt that's
:26:04. > :26:07.changed the calculation and we don't know where the tipping some point so
:26:08. > :26:10.we should come out of that strong, stand with the people of Ukraine and
:26:11. > :26:14.make it clear that the international community, particularly Europe, will
:26:15. > :26:20.not condone this kind of behaviour from Putin and that there will be a
:26:21. > :26:25.cost. So far there's not a cost. If I may. We were sitting here talking
:26:26. > :26:32.about punishing Russia. But in today's speech, from John Kerry, we
:26:33. > :26:36.heard one very sensible line about addressing Russia's legitimate
:26:37. > :26:42.concerns. Doesn't that give us grounds to move ahead from
:26:43. > :26:46.somewhere? Indeed Putin paoutz said today that there was legality in the
:26:47. > :26:52.proceedings, protecting the interests of Russians in eastern and
:26:53. > :26:57.southern Ukraine -- Vladimir Putin No sensible person would deny the
:26:58. > :27:01.welfare of other Russians. Interest in welfare is not the same as
:27:02. > :27:05.invading another country. The crucial point is not to punish
:27:06. > :27:12.Russia, no-one's talking about punishment, it's how we put such
:27:13. > :27:17.pressure on Mr Putin which we are all agreed rhetoric by itself will
:27:18. > :27:22.not do. We saw yesterday how the rouble collapsed, the Russian stock
:27:23. > :27:27.market collapsed, its financial pressure is the one way in which...
:27:28. > :27:32.Could it be rallied? Marginally. Financial pressure is one thing, the
:27:33. > :27:36.modern Russian economy will not experience without serious harm. I
:27:37. > :27:40.make one further point, if I may, and that is that we, it would be
:27:41. > :27:46.shameful if the short-term interests of the City of London or German
:27:47. > :27:52.trade or French defence sales were used as a reason for allowing this
:27:53. > :27:53.invasion to continue without being properly challenged. Thank you all
:27:54. > :28:00.very much. How has the world been changed by
:28:01. > :28:04.these events? What certainty have we had about national borders and
:28:05. > :28:07.east-west access seems to have disappeared such is the flux that
:28:08. > :28:12.even in TV studios aligned to Russia, the ground is pretty shaky.
:28:13. > :28:16.Watch this from Abbey Martin who works for Russia Today. The
:28:17. > :28:18.satellite station is detractors caught the mouth piece of the
:28:19. > :28:27.Kremlin. I wanted to say something from my
:28:28. > :28:31.heart about the military occupation. Because I work here doesn't mean I
:28:32. > :28:35.don't have editorial independence. I can't stress enough how strongly I
:28:36. > :28:39.am against any state intervention in a sovereign nation's affairs. What
:28:40. > :28:43.Russia did is wrong. I don't know as much as I should about Ukraine's
:28:44. > :28:48.history or the cultural dynamics of the region. But I know military
:28:49. > :28:51.intervention is never the answer. I will not sit here and apologise or
:28:52. > :28:57.defend military aggression. The coverage I've seen of Ukraine has
:28:58. > :29:02.been truly disappointing from all sides of the media spectrum. My
:29:03. > :29:05.heart goes out to the Ukrainian people, pawns in a global power
:29:06. > :29:11.chess game. They're the real losers here. All we can do is hope for a
:29:12. > :29:14.peaceful outcome from a terrible situation and prevent another full
:29:15. > :29:19.blown Cold War between multiple superpowers. Until then I'll keep
:29:20. > :29:30.telling the truth as I see it. Is there any such uncertainty for
:29:31. > :29:37.our next guests? Professor Schneider and Ann Applebaum. Let's concentrate
:29:38. > :29:42.on Vladimir Putin here. What is this all about? This is very much about
:29:43. > :29:46.Putin's own personal power. It's about his legitimacy. It's about him
:29:47. > :29:51.maintaining the political and economic system that he has created
:29:52. > :29:56.or that he's at the centre of. What he really fears is not so much
:29:57. > :30:05.Western intervention or NATO, what he fears is what happened in Kiev
:30:06. > :30:12.happening in Moscow. He fears the language of the democratic West, the
:30:13. > :30:16.morals of the West, the ideas of freedom of speech, those are what he
:30:17. > :30:21.fears and this is what he needs to keep out, he needs to set a very
:30:22. > :30:25.strong, make a very strong gesture that this is not going to happen in
:30:26. > :30:29.Russia. So this is the empodiment of everything from the Pussy Riot
:30:30. > :30:37.attacks to his antigay legislation, it's part of a whole owe sital --
:30:38. > :30:42.societal atmosphere. No it's part of his domestic policy. We entering a
:30:43. > :30:50.new era where Russia is roaring again? I think we're entering an era
:30:51. > :30:54.where Russia is talking to itself. Putin is trying to work out for
:30:55. > :30:58.himself what his own ideology means. As Putin gets older, he's becoming
:30:59. > :31:02.less a man concerned only about money and power and more someone who
:31:03. > :31:07.is concerned about his legacy and in particular, about the kind of Russia
:31:08. > :31:11.he's going to leave behind. He is increasingly defining Russia as the
:31:12. > :31:15.bearer of traditional, right-wing values, often radically socially
:31:16. > :31:19.conservative values. This plays in domestic policy in a certain way,
:31:20. > :31:24.but it's been creeping into foreign policy and European policy. Once he
:31:25. > :31:29.defines Russia in contrast to the West, once he says that the West is
:31:30. > :31:34.a homeland of principle and law, but we're a homeland of deep souls and
:31:35. > :31:39.values, then Ukraine means something more than just history or territory,
:31:40. > :31:44.Ukraine starts to be a test of which of these world views is right. I
:31:45. > :31:47.think we're witnessing, among many other things, a conversation of
:31:48. > :31:51.Putin with himself, where he's applying military force, but what's
:31:52. > :31:56.at stake a little bit is his idea of how the world is going to look after
:31:57. > :32:03.he's gone. Because the view increasingly is that he thinks
:32:04. > :32:07.Gorbachev sold the past. He's been making that argument for a long
:32:08. > :32:11.time. That came to pass in 2003, in the accession states when really,
:32:12. > :32:17.then the shift to Europe left Russia looking old and tired. Is his legacy
:32:18. > :32:21.to rebuild a different kind of Soviet Union? I don't think it's so
:32:22. > :32:26.much the Soviet Union. As Tim says, he has a set of ideas and what we're
:32:27. > :32:29.seeing in Ukraine really is a contest between his ideas and a
:32:30. > :32:33.different set of ideas, you know, generally speaking European,
:32:34. > :32:38.generally speaking liberal, rule of law. There was a real clash of ideas
:32:39. > :32:43.going on. He represents one of them and he wants his side to win. If he
:32:44. > :32:49.wants his side to win and it is this deep-seated idea of what Russia is
:32:50. > :32:53.about, then you know, will sanctions make any deal of difference, you
:32:54. > :32:57.know will expulsion from the G8 make any difference? He wants to have
:32:58. > :33:03.that part of the Ukraine, because it says something about Russia. The
:33:04. > :33:06.West is a useful enemy for him because it provides contrast. But he
:33:07. > :33:11.is not the only person who runs Russia. There is a large web of
:33:12. > :33:14.people around him. There are other people who have power and influence
:33:15. > :33:19.in Russia. Whether sanctions can make any influence on Putin is maybe
:33:20. > :33:24.less important than whether they can influence the people around him, on
:33:25. > :33:29.the rest of the country, whether they can change the world view of
:33:30. > :33:33.the Russian elite. Do you think that this is a real stand-off about what
:33:34. > :33:39.Putin says about himself, as you say, his legacy an his legacy in a
:33:40. > :33:43.sense will be to restore Crimea for the whole history and psyche of the
:33:44. > :33:50.country? Do you think he'll stand back on this or not? He's kind of
:33:51. > :33:54.trapped himself again. He created a problem for himself by pushing the
:33:55. > :33:59.Ukrainian government to use violence. That brought about a
:34:00. > :34:03.revolution. The revolution was made by the Ukrainian people, but without
:34:04. > :34:07.Russian overreach it doesn't happen. He may have just done the same thing
:34:08. > :34:12.again. If he pulls out from Crimea, he's defeated but if he stays in
:34:13. > :34:15.Crimea he's also defeated. Crimea isn't really much of a win, at the
:34:16. > :34:20.end of the day. It's a horrible break down for the West, if Ukraine
:34:21. > :34:27.is dismembered. For a new Russian empire, it doesn't amount to much.
:34:28. > :34:33.Briefly, I would like to ask you this, what does what's happening
:34:34. > :34:37.actually say about Europe it isself? -- Itself? Europe is the real
:34:38. > :34:44.subject here, not Putin, not even Ukraine. Europe is the real subject
:34:45. > :34:48.here. Russia, as it exists, is parasitical upon Europe. Europe and
:34:49. > :34:53.Russia are in a bad marriage. Russia blames all its problems on Europe
:34:54. > :34:56.and European decadence. Russians send their kids to European schools.
:34:57. > :35:00.They trade more than have their foreign trade with Europe. The
:35:01. > :35:03.elites put their front companies and all their money in European bank
:35:04. > :35:06.accounts. This is a kind of relationship and the question is
:35:07. > :35:10.whether this relationship has gone so far that Europe will always be
:35:11. > :35:14.incoherent in its dealing was Russia. If it is, that means it has
:35:15. > :35:16.no foreign policy. That means it has no future. This is a crucial moment
:35:17. > :35:20.for the European system, above everything else. Thank you very
:35:21. > :35:24.much. Downing Street faces serious
:35:25. > :35:28.questions tonight over its handling of the behaviour of Patrick Rock,
:35:29. > :35:32.one of David Cameron's most senior aides who resigned after being
:35:33. > :35:35.arrested on child pornography allegations. Newsnight has learned
:35:36. > :35:38.that he was the subject of sexual harassment complaints within Number
:35:39. > :35:44.Ten going back 18 months, but no action was taken against him. Our
:35:45. > :35:48.chief correspondent is here. Just how serious are these allegations?
:35:49. > :35:51.No Prime Minister wants to do what David Cameron had to do today, which
:35:52. > :35:57.was during a speech about austerity and tax cuts one day, was break off
:35:58. > :36:00.and make a statement saying that he was profoundly shocked about the
:36:01. > :36:03.fact that one of his closest advisors had been arrested on
:36:04. > :36:06.allegations of child pornography. There are two areas where Downing
:36:07. > :36:11.Street is facing questions. Let's take them in turn. First, on how the
:36:12. > :36:16.departure of Mr Rock was handled. He was arrested on suspicion of child
:36:17. > :36:19.pornography offences. Computers in Downing Street looked at by the
:36:20. > :36:22.police in the middle of February, some time ago. There's been
:36:23. > :36:26.suspicion tonight in Labour circles that Downing Street somehow sat on
:36:27. > :36:30.this information for several weeks, because they were enjoying the
:36:31. > :36:35.furore around Harriet Harman, allegations over her and what she,
:36:36. > :36:38.who she worked for in the 70s. Now Downing Street have absolutely
:36:39. > :36:41.disputed that. They've said instead the Prime Minister, as he said
:36:42. > :36:46.himself, they considered it would have been completely wrong for them
:36:47. > :36:50.to pre-emptively brief out details of a criminal investigation. A
:36:51. > :36:54.lawyer said technically there's no reason why they couldn't have said,
:36:55. > :36:57.Patrick Rock, advisor at Downing Street, has had to leave his job.
:36:58. > :37:01.The other allegations are different. They go back 18 months. They do.
:37:02. > :37:04.They go back 18 months and relating not to anything to do with child
:37:05. > :37:09.pornography, but allegations about how Mr Rock behaved in Downing
:37:10. > :37:13.Street. He was a close aide of the Prime Minister. He had worked with
:37:14. > :37:20.him for decades, but not just him, also Ed LLewelyn, the Chief of
:37:21. > :37:23.Staff. They worked in Brussels in the 1990s. We understand that a
:37:24. > :37:32.complaint of sexual harassment was made by a female civil vient about
:37:33. > :37:38.18 months ago against Mr Rock. Ed LLewelyn dealt what that complaint
:37:39. > :37:42.alongside a civil servient's line manager. That complaint was
:37:43. > :37:45.seriously considered says Downing Street. Some action was taken. The
:37:46. > :37:49.civil servient was moved to a different part of Whitehall. But no
:37:50. > :37:55.action was taken with Patrick Rock? We understand that the complainant
:37:56. > :37:57.was happen yip, she con-- happy, she consented to the action taken after
:37:58. > :38:01.that investigation. Downing Street are being tight lipped about just
:38:02. > :38:05.exactly what happened to Mr Rock at that point. One source who worked
:38:06. > :38:10.alongside Patrick Rock in Downing Street at that time told me he was
:38:11. > :38:14.never very popular. It was quite odd the way he appeared in Number Ten.
:38:15. > :38:19.But he was tolerated because he was so close to both men, to Ed LLewelyn
:38:20. > :38:24.as well as David Cameron himself. Downing Street are really insistent
:38:25. > :38:28.that they took this seriously at the time. This is tricky territory. Not
:38:29. > :38:31.just because of the unhelpful questions are a distraction, they
:38:32. > :38:36.take up political time and effort. Butch also it plays no a -- but also
:38:37. > :38:40.because it plays into a criticism that's levelled at David Cameron,
:38:41. > :38:43.that somehow Number Ten is run by a group of chums. You need to be in
:38:44. > :38:49.the in-gang to get anything done. Giving up smoking is the easiest
:38:50. > :38:52.thing in the world, Mark Twain is supposed to have said, I know
:38:53. > :38:56.because I've done it thousands of times. The latest frontier is the
:38:57. > :39:03.electronic cigarette, hailed by smokers and charities alike, who say
:39:04. > :39:10.it has revolutionary potential. But the European Union has proposed the
:39:11. > :39:15.ban on these type of cigarettes that would-be quitters like best, the
:39:16. > :39:20.ones with the most nicotine. If it looks like a cigarette and it
:39:21. > :39:24.feels lick a cigarette, that make it feel it a health risk like a
:39:25. > :39:28.cigarette? Electronic cigarettes have seen a surge in popularity and
:39:29. > :39:36.are now used by around 1. 3 million people in the UK. They contain
:39:37. > :39:39.nicotine, but significantly fewer carcinogens. Concern over the
:39:40. > :39:46.long-term effects has led to calls for tighter regulation. A vote in
:39:47. > :39:50.the European Parliament supported a ban on E cigarettes with a
:39:51. > :39:56.particularly high nicotine conebb. That provoked an outcry from an
:39:57. > :39:58.unlikely alliance from industry and antismoking charities, who argue
:39:59. > :40:03.they're helping to reduce death and disease from smoking. One
:40:04. > :40:07.consultancy has gone as far as to argue that the ban on these
:40:08. > :40:12.cigarettes could cost as many as 105,000 lives a year in Europe. But
:40:13. > :40:15.they're often marketed to seem as realistic as possible. Opponents
:40:16. > :40:19.argue that they offer a convenient way for the tobacco industry to side
:40:20. > :40:24.step tough regulations on the advertising of real cigarettes. A
:40:25. > :40:29.quick comparison of the old and new shows a strikingly uniform message,
:40:30. > :40:34.smoking is cool. There are fears that such messages, along with the
:40:35. > :40:38.use of bright colours and exciting flavours, could encourage smoking
:40:39. > :40:43.amongst children. With me here in the studio is the Times columnist
:40:44. > :40:53.and Conservative peer Matt Ridley and Professor Martin MCKee. First of
:40:54. > :40:56.all, Professor, are e-cigarettes unsafe? They're certainly safer than
:40:57. > :41:01.the real cigarettes. When they're safe or not is another question. Do
:41:02. > :41:07.you believe then that certain cigarettes which contain,
:41:08. > :41:11.e-cigarettes contain more than 20 migs of nicotine, there foreshould
:41:12. > :41:14.be banned? I think we're asking the wrong question. The issue is not
:41:15. > :41:20.whether or not they're safer than real cigarettes, but they clearly
:41:21. > :41:23.are safer. The issue is whether the marketing of these products is
:41:24. > :41:26.essentially a way to get around the advertising ban on real cigarettes
:41:27. > :41:31.and I and others are convinced that it is. So there's a kind of Trojan
:41:32. > :41:34.horse for real smoking? Absolutely. What we're now seeing in the United
:41:35. > :41:39.States, from the latest tobacco youth survey, is that the rate of
:41:40. > :41:42.use of these products by 12 to 15-year-olds is going up. Whereas
:41:43. > :41:47.there's been no compensatory fall in the use of real cigarettes. So it's
:41:48. > :41:51.just adding to the smoking tally rather than removing cigarettes in
:41:52. > :41:53.favour of e-cigarettes? No the evidence is that smoking is going
:41:54. > :41:58.down and e-cigarettes are going up. The use of e-cigarettes quadrupled
:41:59. > :42:02.in the last year in this country. All the evidence suggests it's the
:42:03. > :42:04.top way of quitting cigarettes, quitting smoking. It's the most
:42:05. > :42:08.popular way in this country for people to get off cigarettes. That's
:42:09. > :42:13.from a stander start within about a year. What about the idea that ones
:42:14. > :42:18.heavy on nicotine are pretty harmful, they're addictive. Nicotine
:42:19. > :42:23.is addict of. But so is coffee. Nicotine is not very harmful. The
:42:24. > :42:26.NHS website says that these things are probably about a thousand times
:42:27. > :42:30.safer than cigarettes. These are bringing about the end of smoking.
:42:31. > :42:35.You don't believe in capping the amount of nicotine in them? The
:42:36. > :42:40.problem with that is that it would get rid of exactly the products that
:42:41. > :42:43.people are using to quit, so the quitters are going for the strong
:42:44. > :42:47.ones and then they're going down. I've had hundreds of e-mails since I
:42:48. > :42:50.started writing about this from people who moved onto strong
:42:51. > :42:57.cigarettes and then went to weaker ones. E-cigarettes? Yes. Sorry.
:42:58. > :43:00.100,000 people or so would be at risk if they didn't have them
:43:01. > :43:05.because they wouldn't be able to quit. You have the manufacturers and
:43:06. > :43:08.the charities together saying that e-cigarettes are a good thing,
:43:09. > :43:15.because they're cutting the rate of heart disease and related problems
:43:16. > :43:20.all over Europe. No, I don't think that's the case at all. What we see
:43:21. > :43:24.is that, although some people may be cutting down their cigarette
:43:25. > :43:29.consumption, if they are having dual use, using real cigarettes and
:43:30. > :43:34.e-cigarettes, they are not reducing the heart rate disease
:43:35. > :43:38.significantly, but they may reduce their lung capacity. I was going to
:43:39. > :43:42.say, marketing, do you believe that actually, obviously we are not
:43:43. > :43:45.allowed cigarette ads on television, do you think e-cigarettes should
:43:46. > :43:50.face the same advertising ban? Absolutely. This is a way of getting
:43:51. > :43:54.around the ban. These are flavoured with things like strawberry cake,
:43:55. > :43:59.bubble gum, candy floss. Obviously they are being marketed at kids. To
:44:00. > :44:03.be fair, I've seen lots of kids smoking cigarettes, well, not lots,
:44:04. > :44:08.but kids smoking cigarettes on street corners, is that OK? No. It's
:44:09. > :44:11.not. The evidence is, among young people, as well as adults, they are
:44:12. > :44:15.being used as a gateway out of cigarettes. The ads are glamorous,
:44:16. > :44:19.they say smoking is cool. Any kind of smoking is cool essentially?
:44:20. > :44:25.That's not the effect they are havinglet. We are talking about
:44:26. > :44:31.relative risk, harm reduction. The smoking is declining slowly under
:44:32. > :44:37.prescript prescriptive from doctors and so on, but this could accelerate
:44:38. > :44:40.the decline and we should encourage technology that does that. I want to
:44:41. > :44:47.return to the story of a possible tax on sugar. Matt Ridley, sugar is
:44:48. > :44:50.an addiction, we have a problem with type II diabetes. There is a
:44:51. > :44:55.proposal for a tax on sugar. Is it a good idea? It's a mistake. We
:44:56. > :44:59.shouldn't be micro-managing people's diets. People should be left to make
:45:00. > :45:03.up their own minds. Taxes are not about how we micromanage what people
:45:04. > :45:06.do. We should use taxes to raise money... Social engineering is
:45:07. > :45:11.sometimes for the good surely, therefore people are encouraged in
:45:12. > :45:16.certain ways to take less sugar? Indeed. But it's not an excuse. You
:45:17. > :45:19.can't pick this out of one thing and say taxing is the right way. We
:45:20. > :45:25.should leave people to make up their own minds and raise taxes to spend
:45:26. > :45:31.on Public Services. That's what should be the way to do things.
:45:32. > :45:35.Taxing shouldn't be about discouraging or encouraging
:45:36. > :45:40.particular things. E-cigarettes and sugar. Thank you both for joining
:45:41. > :45:45.us. It was the 90th anniversary of the song happy birthday. Despite
:45:46. > :45:50.having been around since the 19th century, the publishers managed to
:45:51. > :45:56.copyright the song and to this day we'd have to give Warner Brothers a
:45:57. > :45:58.heap of money to play it. Since we can't do that, here is something
:45:59. > :46:47.Scottish instead. England and Wales, a frosty start to
:46:48. > :46:48.the day with pockets