:00:19. > :00:25.Putin redraws the map and extinguishes the peninsulas's
:00:26. > :00:29.Ukrainian identity. On the eve of the budget, does the Chancellor of
:00:30. > :00:38.the Exchequer have room to wing a cat. He has obey the economic
:00:39. > :00:43.realities and economic data. In the heart of Africa, an unreported
:00:44. > :00:49.campaign of sectarian murder. This is a strategy the outside world is
:00:50. > :00:53.unaware of, ethnic and religious cleansing on a massive scale. These
:00:54. > :00:57.are the only remaining Muslims for hundreds of miles around, and these
:00:58. > :01:02.gates and troops are all that is protecting them from likely death.
:01:03. > :01:08.The author of Thinking Fast And Slow on how to make your mind up. Are you
:01:09. > :01:20.good at making decisions? Not very! Shouldn't you be? No!
:01:21. > :01:24.With a stroke of the pen the Russian President rewrote history today and
:01:25. > :01:29.appropriated part of a neighbouring country. Crimea, he declared, was
:01:30. > :01:34.once again an intergrel part of Russia. So much for what even
:01:35. > :01:38.European Union ministers conceded are a rather toothless lot of
:01:39. > :01:43.sanctions. Putin claimed the border had been redrawn without a shot
:01:44. > :01:51.being fired. Not quite, for one Ukrainian was shot dead. Our
:01:52. > :01:59.diplomatic editor is in the apple capital of Crimea where the incident
:02:00. > :02:03.took place. What happened? Well, late this afternoon this operation
:02:04. > :02:06.went ahead, on a sort of industrial estate, the place has been described
:02:07. > :02:11.as base, it was more of an office, if you like. With around a dozen, we
:02:12. > :02:15.think, Ukrainian service personnel in it. One of many, many sites that
:02:16. > :02:19.has been be siegeed these past few weeks. We passed by as it was
:02:20. > :02:26.happening, we're staying very close to it. Later on we went back as the
:02:27. > :02:33.situation had become clearer and it seems that Russians went in there
:02:34. > :02:38.and basically, forcibly, evacuated the place, there was some kind of
:02:39. > :02:42.struggle and one man, named by the Ukrainian defence ministry as
:02:43. > :02:52.Warrant Officer Kokurin was killed. The others were taken away in buses
:02:53. > :02:54.after the incident was over. The Crimean authorities dispute that,
:02:55. > :03:00.but from eyewitness reports it seems to be broadly correct. What is the
:03:01. > :03:06.mood there? Well, of course, if you bear in mind that most people here
:03:07. > :03:11.are Russian and want union with Russia it has been day of great
:03:12. > :03:21.excitement. We went down to the southern part just near S version
:03:22. > :03:25.eastipol, to watch the speech, it was a fascinating delivery of speech
:03:26. > :03:30.and message and insight into his policy and mentality. One message
:03:31. > :03:35.for the internal audience, if you like, the Russians, and another for
:03:36. > :03:41.the outer, the wider world. The message to Russians full of
:03:42. > :03:46.religious, historical and political references, justifying Russia's
:03:47. > :03:51.claim to take over Crimea. Of course he said it was an inacceptable part
:03:52. > :03:57.of Russia and the people in the of a cafe loved it, there were great
:03:58. > :04:07.cheers as he finished his speech. The message to the wider world, he
:04:08. > :04:11.was clearly trying to draw a line. He's clearly saying he doesn't want
:04:12. > :04:24.to go further, the problem is that some of his messages to the Russian
:04:25. > :04:30.audience send mixed messages that will be harder for the wider world
:04:31. > :04:37.to read. Can you read how they are interpreting Russia's behaviour?
:04:38. > :04:40.This incident tonight, obviously we believe it is resulting in the death
:04:41. > :04:45.of a serviceman. It has brought a statement from Kiev, from the
:04:46. > :04:49.Ukrainian Government saying that Ukrainian forces have now been given
:04:50. > :04:53.orders they can use their weapons in self-defence. If you think about it
:04:54. > :04:57.is pretty remarkable they weren't already under such orders given what
:04:58. > :05:00.has been happening in the last few weeks. If you think about being a
:05:01. > :05:04.serviceman, subject to rules of engagment that means you can't use
:05:05. > :05:10.your weapon in defence of yourself. You will understand why many people
:05:11. > :05:16.in those bases are demoralised. We spoke to a couple of people from one
:05:17. > :05:19.of the bases recently, we got a real sense of the mood in there people
:05:20. > :05:22.are dividing. Some are deciding they will turn their coats and serve with
:05:23. > :05:28.Russia, others that they have to leave and go back to the Ukraine.
:05:29. > :05:31.So, the Ukrainian response to what has happened today has been to say
:05:32. > :05:36.that this is entering a new phase, a military phase, but on the ground in
:05:37. > :05:39.this particular place, the signs are that the campaign of pressure of
:05:40. > :05:45.psychological warfare, if you like, on these garrisons, is slowly but
:05:46. > :05:48.surely mopping them up. Thank you very much indeed. When I want a
:05:49. > :05:51.decent review of my work I will write one, we're all familiar enough
:05:52. > :05:55.with the problem of whether you can believe in apparently independent
:05:56. > :05:59.assessment of a hotel or a restaurant or book or film which
:06:00. > :06:04.appears in cyberspace. But aren't you entitled to expect more from a
:06:05. > :06:09.website assessing healthcare. The idea that patients should be able to
:06:10. > :06:14.rate and comment on hospitals is a key recommendation of the inquiry
:06:15. > :06:18.into high levels of mortality among those being treated in Staffordshire
:06:19. > :06:23.hospitals. Supposing the reviews haven't been written by patients but
:06:24. > :06:31.by employees? That is rather what Newsnight discovered when we
:06:32. > :06:37.investigated one such site. Gone are the days when patients were passive
:06:38. > :06:42.recipients of their care. They are making their feelings now by leaving
:06:43. > :06:48.comments on patient feedback websites. Patients can award stars
:06:49. > :06:53.for things like cleanliness, a bit like rating a hotel. We all know
:06:54. > :06:58.about authors reviewing their own books on-line, these new system, are
:06:59. > :07:02.they open to the same abuse? Nottinghamshire Healthcare Trust
:07:03. > :07:07.uses the website Patient Opinion, the Trust prides itself on how
:07:08. > :07:09.quickly it responds to patients' comments. However, we have
:07:10. > :07:15.discovered that half of the reviews, more than #00 in total, were posted
:07:16. > :07:20.by staff on behalf of patients. But more troubling than that, the NHS
:07:21. > :07:28.puts these same comments on its own site, but without making clear which
:07:29. > :07:35.ones have been posted by staff. Your data has already shown that staff in
:07:36. > :07:39.the NHS are reporting data. That is wrong. But the data they are
:07:40. > :07:43.reporting is skewing the results. That has to be wrong. It is making
:07:44. > :07:51.the data the public sees as almost meaningless. The NHS has now removed
:07:52. > :07:55.all of the 6512 Nottinghamshire -- 652 Nottinghamshire reviews. In a
:07:56. > :07:58.statement they said they acknowledged the postings needed to
:07:59. > :08:01.be clearer about who is writing them and they are working on a solution
:08:02. > :08:07.for this, internally and with patient opinion. Patient Opinion
:08:08. > :08:13.told us it changed the site to make it clearer when reviews are posted
:08:14. > :08:17.by NHS staff by patients. They accept that it must be clear to
:08:18. > :08:20.everybody when a story has been added by staff. We decided to
:08:21. > :08:27.broaden our investigation to see whether the NHS's new patient
:08:28. > :08:35.feedback website, Care Connect, piloted in 18 hospital Hospital
:08:36. > :08:39.Trusts is open to the same abuse. We started going through hundreds of
:08:40. > :08:43.patient reviews, it wasn't long before they were suspicious about
:08:44. > :08:47.some of the comments. "Very impressed with the surgeon, the
:08:48. > :08:54.investigations were erformed so eVISHTly, so impressed", "the doctor
:08:55. > :09:03.was so helpful, lovely staff", this one just had five stars. In order to
:09:04. > :09:07.find out if NHS staff were posting the opinions, we had to find the IP
:09:08. > :09:10.addresses, that is like a postcode. We were suspicious about nine
:09:11. > :09:14.hospitals, through a Freedom of Information request, we got the IP
:09:15. > :09:18.addresses and discovered that NHS computers were being used. Six of
:09:19. > :09:24.the 100 most recent reviews came from hospital computers. We also
:09:25. > :09:28.found that the reviews posted from NHS computers were more positive. A
:09:29. > :09:33.whole star rating more positive than the other comments on the Care
:09:34. > :09:38.Connect site. It was in the wake of the scandal that Mid Staffordshire
:09:39. > :09:44.Trust, that Robert Francis QC called for fundamental change in the NHS.
:09:45. > :09:49.It was a culture which trumpeted successes and said little about
:09:50. > :09:54.failings. Relatives were ignored or even reproached. Our NHS is not safe
:09:55. > :10:01.in their hands. But one year on, not everyone is convinced the NHS has
:10:02. > :10:06.learned. We have known for a long time that the culture of the NHS is
:10:07. > :10:10.one of staff feeling under pressure to deliver results. This is now a
:10:11. > :10:13.symptom of that, that staff are putting on results that aren't
:10:14. > :10:18.necessarily true and it is interfering with the results under
:10:19. > :10:21.the marking system or the star-rating system we have got
:10:22. > :10:29.today. That is the thing that we should be addressing. Hospital
:10:30. > :10:40.truant budgets are linked to how well they are rated by patients, and
:10:41. > :10:43.whether they would recommend them to families. Patients and families
:10:44. > :10:47.think the NHS will tell them the truth. It does struggle hard to tell
:10:48. > :10:52.them the truth. But if there is an inaccidentive to do little things --
:10:53. > :10:56.incentive to do little things, like putting in this story that looks
:10:57. > :10:59.good, it attacks the fundamental trust between citizen and health
:11:00. > :11:03.service that lies at the core of what is a fantastic service at the
:11:04. > :11:08.NHS. We don't know for certain why these reviews are being posted from
:11:09. > :11:13.NHS computers. It could be just that NHS staff are proud of the work they
:11:14. > :11:16.are doing. After all the negative publicity they have got in recent
:11:17. > :11:20.years it is hardly surprising that some staff might want to boost the
:11:21. > :11:25.ratings of their hospital. But, the problem with all of this is, is that
:11:26. > :11:33.it undermines that transparency and openness that the NHS now says it
:11:34. > :11:38.values so highly. We have the director of patient experience for
:11:39. > :11:43.the NHS in England. You have to accept that you can't guarantee all
:11:44. > :11:45.the reviews are genuine? We can't guarantee all reviews are coming
:11:46. > :11:50.from patients and families, but we are very sure that the vast majority
:11:51. > :11:57.are. You can't be sure, can you? We can. How can you be sure? Because
:11:58. > :11:59.what was happening in Nottingham is a very interesting experiment
:12:00. > :12:03.really, where what they have been trying to do is to help vulnerable
:12:04. > :12:07.patients to have a voice. So what those reviews were doing, they were
:12:08. > :12:10.coming from learning disability services, they were coming from
:12:11. > :12:14.secure hospitals, they were coming from older people in mental health
:12:15. > :12:18.wards and what staff were doing was writing up their feedback for them
:12:19. > :12:22.and posting it on Patient Opinion. I have read a lot of the reviews, they
:12:23. > :12:27.are not all positive, a lot of them have criticisms, a lot of them have
:12:28. > :12:32.areas for improvement. The point is the NHS is leading the world in
:12:33. > :12:36.regards to patient feedback. It is meaningless if you can't guarantee
:12:37. > :12:41.its authenticity? It is not meaningless. If you look from
:12:42. > :12:45.Nottingham, the two films are different issues, what you can show
:12:46. > :12:49.is that what staff are doing is reporting issues for patients which
:12:50. > :12:53.are often things that are going wrong, patients are saying we need
:12:54. > :12:58.internet access, we need a better range of activities on the wards.
:12:59. > :13:02.The interesting thing for me is that 550 staff were reading those stories
:13:03. > :13:08.in Nottingham and acting on them. We can demonstratism improvements. That
:13:09. > :13:13.-- demonstrate improvements. But we have no way of knowing, the comments
:13:14. > :13:18.are anonymous and we are not sure who is posting them? We had to get
:13:19. > :13:23.it in proportion. There are 300,000 comments from patients and carers on
:13:24. > :13:28.NHS Choices. You can't tell me whether 299,000 of them are genuine?
:13:29. > :13:33.Well, I think what guaranties the reliability of this information is
:13:34. > :13:37.the scale. So there are 300,000 of comments from patients and carers on
:13:38. > :13:41.NHS Choices, there is 1. 8 million from patients and in the friends and
:13:42. > :13:46.family test. What you are talking about in patient opinion is 18,000.
:13:47. > :13:50.The vast majority of those are from patients and carers and families
:13:51. > :13:58.too. So that kind of scale you cannot gain it. So you assert. You
:13:59. > :14:03.just have to read the feedback, it is interesting you didn't quote the
:14:04. > :14:08.feedback in the film. The feedback a lot of it is about praise, a lot of
:14:09. > :14:13.is about criticism, a lot is about suggestions for improvement. What we
:14:14. > :14:16.have demonstrated? It doesn't matter who has posted it,
:14:17. > :14:21.what is the point in quoting it? If you look at people have said, a
:14:22. > :14:26.comment I read earlier, somebody saying that the staff were very
:14:27. > :14:29.approachable on the ward but the activities were quite juvenile. They
:14:30. > :14:34.wanted some support in the budgeting so when they went back home they
:14:35. > :14:37.were able... That is as pointless as quoting anything else because you
:14:38. > :14:43.don't know who wrote it? You do know in that instance it has clearly come
:14:44. > :14:45.from a user of that service. So you assert? It is addressing
:14:46. > :14:48.shortcomings in the service. Improvements have been brought about
:14:49. > :14:53.as a result of that feedback being posted. Now I think what we have
:14:54. > :14:57.done is we have removed the comments on patient opinion because the issue
:14:58. > :15:01.here is transparency, as you say. We have to be clear that feedback has
:15:02. > :15:05.either come from patients or that it has come from staff. And we haven't
:15:06. > :15:09.been able to do that with this particular feed on to NHS choices.
:15:10. > :15:14.We have suspended that feed until we have been able to sort that problem
:15:15. > :15:17.out. But actually the vast majority are clearly from patients and carers
:15:18. > :15:22.and families, you just have to read them to see that. Thank you very
:15:23. > :15:26.much indeed. In the world of news, with all its drum beat urgency and
:15:27. > :15:31.self-importance, it is rare to hear the line "there's nothing to
:15:32. > :15:34.report". But in the case of the vanished Malaysian airliner it is
:15:35. > :15:39.true. That of course is the point, how can an enormous aircraft, packed
:15:40. > :15:43.with living human beings just vanish. Everything, accident,
:15:44. > :15:48.hijacking, sabotage, mental breakdown of the pilot remains
:15:49. > :15:55.possible. David Grossman doesn't know, but he's intrigued what
:15:56. > :15:59.happens when demand and supply gets so madly out of kilter. Dozens of
:16:00. > :16:02.theories have been put forward for what happened to this plane, some of
:16:03. > :16:07.which there is little evidence for. There are a few firm facts like
:16:08. > :16:12.take-off time, range, weight, passenger numbers and crew numbers.
:16:13. > :16:17.The initial flight path and then there are a series of facts that
:16:18. > :16:22.just prompt more questions, like the condition reporting system on the
:16:23. > :16:28.plane, ACARS senting out its final signal at 01. 07. Previously the
:16:29. > :16:34.Malaysian Prime Minister had said this ACARS system was switched off
:16:35. > :16:43.before the crew made their last voice call at 01. 19, that it was
:16:44. > :16:47.deliberately disabled by someone on board, fact not reported by the crew
:16:48. > :16:50.in the last communication. Today however the authorities backtracked
:16:51. > :16:56.saying they couldn't be sure precisely when the ACARS system
:16:57. > :17:01.stopped working, but downplayed whether it mattered. Up until the
:17:02. > :17:05.point it left military primary coverage the aircraft's movements
:17:06. > :17:09.were consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane. That
:17:10. > :17:15.remains the issue with the investigation team. It is also
:17:16. > :17:20.important to note the precise time ACARS was disabled has no bearing on
:17:21. > :17:24.the search operation. Accounts of what happened after the last voice
:17:25. > :17:27.call are imprecise and often contradictory. We have reports that
:17:28. > :17:32.the careful has turned west and been tracked with primary radar. All I
:17:33. > :17:37.can say it is reports, we have all sorts of conflicting rumours at the
:17:38. > :17:43.moment that the aircraft was flying at 5,000 feet, 45,000 feet, or
:17:44. > :17:48.29,500 feet. We have the Malaysians saying they think it is the 777 and
:17:49. > :17:51.it takes a week to analyse the radar take with some quite sophisticated
:17:52. > :17:55.software in order to determine that. We don't know if they are
:17:56. > :18:02.undertaking that analysis. The Malaysians say that radar signal
:18:03. > :18:08.disappeared at O2. 15. But say radar experts, it is not clear what sort
:18:09. > :18:14.of contact it was, was it a plotted others or unexpected dots. Malaysian
:18:15. > :18:21.military defence system is very modern, it was only commissioned 12
:18:22. > :18:25.months ago. And contains some of the most sophisticated equipment in the
:18:26. > :18:30.world today. So you might expect some pretty good data to come out of
:18:31. > :18:35.that military radar system? If they have it. Why haven't we got any more
:18:36. > :18:39.concrete details yet from that system do you think, or are they
:18:40. > :18:45.just not letting us know this stuff? That could be the case, or that they
:18:46. > :18:48.have only got the spurious tracks. After that there is one more piece
:18:49. > :18:53.of concrete information the authorities have to work with? We
:18:54. > :18:57.have a satellite report, another communication system on board the
:18:58. > :19:01.plane, autonomously sending back information. That has given us an
:19:02. > :19:05.arc that the aircraft was in at the time that the message was received
:19:06. > :19:10.and we know the remaining range of the aircraft if it had been there.
:19:11. > :19:13.Which enables us to design some search patterns to look for the
:19:14. > :19:18.aircraft. Beyond that at the moment there is an awful lot of
:19:19. > :19:25.speculation. Which leads us tonight, with teams from 24 flayingses --
:19:26. > :19:29.nations searching an area of 22 square nautical miles. They could
:19:30. > :19:36.use surveillance satellites, they are not GS stationary, they are
:19:37. > :19:46.moving around the earth. These are mainly military, they contain a
:19:47. > :19:52.sophisticated radar which is called synthetic aperture radar. That maps
:19:53. > :19:57.everything underneath it. There is one final fact we can say for sure,
:19:58. > :20:00.the search for the flight is the longest in modern commercial
:20:01. > :20:04.aviation history. Once upon a time there was a
:20:05. > :20:07.Chancellor of the Exchequer who resigned because he disclosed what
:20:08. > :20:13.was going to be in his budget before he told parliament. Only less than
:20:14. > :20:17.20 years ago when the Daily Mirror was sent the budget speech the day
:20:18. > :20:21.beforehand. The newspaper sent it back unpublished. Last night you
:20:22. > :20:27.could hardly set foot on a London street without some dodgy
:20:28. > :20:31.propagandaist thrusting an exclusive into your hand and any reporter.
:20:32. > :20:35.Today they came over a bit more coy. They have gone quiet haven't they?
:20:36. > :20:40.It is like tumbleweed out there. It is deathly silent and for exactly
:20:41. > :20:46.the reasons you have just laid out. Last year, particularly, was very
:20:47. > :20:49.leaky and the fingers were being pointed at the Liberal Democrats.
:20:50. > :20:53.Today they have all sort of held back, the only public
:20:54. > :21:03.preannouncement we have had is the very visible sign of the deputy PM
:21:04. > :21:09.and the PM wanting to do this shoulder-to-shoulder. One tiny bone
:21:10. > :21:13.we have been thrown is this new ?1 coin, 12-sided, two colours. They
:21:14. > :21:16.are calling it the most secure in the world. I wonder if there is a
:21:17. > :21:20.subliminal message in there, that the Chancellor can stand up and say
:21:21. > :21:23.my secure pound and your secure money, or maybe, I don't know, there
:21:24. > :21:28.is a thistle on it and they are trying to get the Scots on side for
:21:29. > :21:31.later. But there is very little tangible stuff. What is the theme
:21:32. > :21:35.likely to be tomorrow do you think? I get the impression that the
:21:36. > :21:41.Chancellor is going all out to have a sort of blue collar budget. That
:21:42. > :21:45.might be a phrase you detest. But there seems to be measures that will
:21:46. > :21:54.be aimed very SCOMBARL at low-paid workers. -- squarely aimed at
:21:55. > :21:59.low-paid workers. Bingo will have its rate lowered, it sounds like a
:22:00. > :22:02.small thing, it only costs ?20 million. Which is nothing in
:22:03. > :22:06.Chancellor terms. It is a small thing? But it is played by ?3
:22:07. > :22:12.million people in the country, two million are women. And in a week
:22:13. > :22:18.where we have seen the Eton mess line, the "how many Eatonians do you
:22:19. > :22:26.need to run a cabinet? ". All the stuff about high end expenses and
:22:27. > :22:29.the row over the 40p tax bracket, this could be a shrewd signal by a
:22:30. > :22:35.Chancellor who we know is a politician before anything else,
:22:36. > :22:38.that is aimed directly at saying we need to get those swing voters back
:22:39. > :22:43.on side, the working-classes that Margaret Thatcher landed when she
:22:44. > :22:46.was in power. Everybody budget speech is the
:22:47. > :22:49.biggest since the last biggest, but the fact of the matter is that while
:22:50. > :22:55.George Osborne may be a wealthy man, it is not his money, and there is
:22:56. > :23:02.not that much of it. We take a look at his room for manoeuvre.
:23:03. > :23:06.The Chancellor would love to give away some proper goodies in the
:23:07. > :23:11.budget tomorrow. A big tax cut or major spending project. George
:23:12. > :23:17.Osborne does want to be re-elected afterall, but he can't. He has to
:23:18. > :23:28.obey the economic realities. He has to obey the economic data. The
:23:29. > :23:33.economy is growing again, we are in recovery. But it always takes a
:23:34. > :23:37.little bit of time for an economy to grow back to where it was before it
:23:38. > :23:41.was in recession after it was in recession. This is the shape of the
:23:42. > :23:45.recovery that took place after the early 80s recession. This is the
:23:46. > :23:49.shape of the recovery from the early 1990s. This is the shape of the
:23:50. > :23:53.recovery we are in right now. It is going to take until some time later
:23:54. > :24:01.this year for our economy to grow back to where it was in 2008. That
:24:02. > :24:05.was never the plan. When the coalition took office, it hoped that
:24:06. > :24:08.weak sterling would mean that exports would rise very quickly,
:24:09. > :24:13.that would be one of the things that would power a quick strong recovery.
:24:14. > :24:18.Unfortunately that strong export growth never really materialised.
:24:19. > :24:23.Largely because the world economy is so weak. There are things about
:24:24. > :24:27.Britain's economic performance that economists are quite baffled by
:24:28. > :24:31.though. So take productivity. That is the amount of stuff that workers
:24:32. > :24:35.can make in an hour. It hasn't really been growing as everyone
:24:36. > :24:41.expected it would after the recession. What about austerity? You
:24:42. > :24:44.can't find OK two economists who actually agree about what the effect
:24:45. > :24:49.of the Government spending cuts has been on the British economy.
:24:50. > :24:53.Whatever the causes of Britain's economic weakness, there has been
:24:54. > :24:57.one really big effect in so far as the Treasury is concerned, that is
:24:58. > :25:01.on the deficit. This is how much they hoped that the deficit would be
:25:02. > :25:04.this year, and this is how much it looks like it is going to be. The
:25:05. > :25:09.fact that it is taking longer to bring the amount that we are
:25:10. > :25:13.borrowing each year down is why the Government has already pencilled in
:25:14. > :25:18.austerity well into the next parliament. Still, there is good
:25:19. > :25:22.news. Unemployment never really took off during this recession. In the
:25:23. > :25:26.way it has during previous downturns in this country or in our European
:25:27. > :25:30.neighbours. Growth is picking up at a pretty good rate too. That is why
:25:31. > :25:34.Labour has been focussing its attention on the cost of living.
:25:35. > :25:40.Incomes haven't been rising faster than prices, that means real
:25:41. > :25:44.salaries are declining. But, even that affect may be coming to
:25:45. > :25:47.answered, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that wages are turning
:25:48. > :25:57.a corner, real incomes are about to start rising. Still, we're not out
:25:58. > :26:00.of the woods quite yet. Yes it is good news that growth is strong, yes
:26:01. > :26:06.it is good news that lots of people are in work. But there is real
:26:07. > :26:10.concern about what economists call spare capacity. The issue is, how
:26:11. > :26:16.long the British economy can keep going at this sort of rate before it
:26:17. > :26:21.starts to overheat. If it is the case that we can't keep the recent
:26:22. > :26:25.levels of economic growth going into the coming years, then it probably
:26:26. > :26:33.means there's more austerity on the way. Don't expect too much detail on
:26:34. > :26:38.all of that from George Osborne tomorrow, he does have an election
:26:39. > :26:45.to win. Don't expect any goodies any time soon either. Here to proVite
:26:46. > :26:49.context on the -- provide context on the budget is Gillian. Let's start
:26:50. > :27:01.with the one thing they are banging on the new coinet's start with the
:27:02. > :27:04.one thing they are banging on the new coin. There are not goodies to
:27:05. > :27:07.give away so they are trying to give away something you can touch which
:27:08. > :27:13.is a coin. It is a gimmick? It is playing to patriotism, it is
:27:14. > :27:18.designed on the 3p piece, for the older voters is a message of
:27:19. > :27:23.security, solidity and timeless value, and a good distraction
:27:24. > :27:28.device. Will it make up for a lack of content in the budget? Really
:27:29. > :27:34.hasn't got a lot of things to give away. As Chris alluded to in the
:27:35. > :27:38.piece, the same problems that dogs many economies today, there is
:27:39. > :27:42.growth in the UK. The OECD came out recently and said the UK economy
:27:43. > :27:45.will be the fastest-growing in the second quarter of the year among the
:27:46. > :27:49.G 7s, the big industrialised nations. The question is, firstly,
:27:50. > :27:53.is it just a sugar high. They have pumped a lot of glucose into the
:27:54. > :27:59.economy in the form of easy money, is it sustainable or not? Secondly
:28:00. > :28:03.does it affect anyone other than a tiny elite. Right now for many
:28:04. > :28:08.ordinary British people it feels like just the rich are benefitting.
:28:09. > :28:12.Do we understand why the economy appears to be growing? That is a
:28:13. > :28:15.very good question. Certainly on the international stage the fact that
:28:16. > :28:20.the UK has rebounded so fast is something of a surprise to many
:28:21. > :28:24.bodies like the IMF. Not least because the UK has been more active
:28:25. > :28:32.in promoting austerity than many other countries like America. There
:28:33. > :28:37.is a lot of suspicion there is a sugar-high, to go back to taking a
:28:38. > :28:42.body and pumping it full of glucose to create the look of energy. House
:28:43. > :28:46.prices have been recovering and easy money has been flooding in. The
:28:47. > :28:52.question is whether it is enough to get businesses investing and exports
:28:53. > :29:03.going to create a sustainable recovery. Productivy growth is --
:29:04. > :29:07.productivity growth is pathetic? If we needed reminding that economics
:29:08. > :29:15.is as much an art as science that is it. Maybe productivity growth was
:29:16. > :29:21.never that high before 2007 was the banking sector was creating the
:29:22. > :29:26.illusion and inflating it. Maybe there is such a flexible work force
:29:27. > :29:30.that companies are hanging on to workers and paying them nothing and
:29:31. > :29:34.unemployment not rising as much as expected. It could be that. The
:29:35. > :29:38.reality is we don't know. As Chris has pointed out. If it is a case
:29:39. > :29:42.that productivity is very low we may have got to the stage where the
:29:43. > :29:46.spare capacity has been eliminated, in which case it will be very
:29:47. > :29:51.challenging to maintain the feel-good sentiment going forward.
:29:52. > :29:56.Challenging meaning? It will be very tough. Either inflation will come
:29:57. > :30:00.back and create a good old fashioned inflationary squeeze or growth will
:30:01. > :30:05.taper off. Thank you very much. Now if you are looking for an example of
:30:06. > :30:12.a failed state, the Central African Republic will serve you better than
:30:13. > :30:16.most. The era of the deranged Emperor Picasso, father of 62
:30:17. > :30:23.children and reported cannibal is over, but the country is now ravaged
:30:24. > :30:28.in what some human rights groups describe as ethnic cleansing.
:30:29. > :30:39.Christian mill ligses on the Muslim -- militias on the Muslim majority.
:30:40. > :30:44.Under the watchful eyes of Christ and his apostles, the battered
:30:45. > :30:49.remnants of a population being hunted to distinction. This church
:30:50. > :30:52.is the refuge for 1,000 stragglers, in an historic exodus from the
:30:53. > :31:03.central Afghan Republic. But they are not Christians. They are all
:31:04. > :31:08.Muslims. Victims of a barrous militia that wants every one of them
:31:09. > :31:11.gone. Many walked weeks to get here, attacked along the way with
:31:12. > :31:52.unspeakable viciousness. This is a tragedy the outside world
:31:53. > :31:55.is barely aware of. These are the only remaining Muslims for hundreds
:31:56. > :32:02.of miles around. These gates and troops are all that is protecting
:32:03. > :32:05.them from likely death. A small contingent of African Union
:32:06. > :32:08.peacekeepers keeps guard here in this remote town. They wouldn't be
:32:09. > :32:15.enough to beat off a determined attack. Though this is apparently a
:32:16. > :32:21.Christian-Muslim conflict, the fugutives's real saviour is a
:32:22. > :32:45.priest. He had death threats from the nominally Christian militia.
:32:46. > :32:49.He argued with the militia, bought them off until the peacekeepers
:32:50. > :33:22.arrived. This man is now an orphan, he
:33:23. > :34:12.watched them go from door-to-door killing in every home.
:34:13. > :34:21.Just outside the town we find the force that he ran from. Fresh they
:34:22. > :34:25.boast from more killing. They want revenge for atrocities by a largely
:34:26. > :34:31.Muslim rebel group that briefly won power last year in this
:34:32. > :34:35.predominantly Christian nation. They believe these cattle, from local
:34:36. > :35:08.herders of the Pearl Tribe, and these women, are their just rewards.
:35:09. > :35:14.SDMRT back at the church the Muslim survivors must clear out every
:35:15. > :35:19.Sunday morning to make way for mass. It is an uneasy moment as the
:35:20. > :35:21.worshippers arrive, it is in the name of Christians like these that
:35:22. > :35:48.the militia want Muslims eradicated. For all the preaching of love, hate
:35:49. > :35:53.has spread through this once fairly tranquil country since last year's
:35:54. > :36:38.rebellion by Muslim-led forces. Many of his flock has suffered and
:36:39. > :36:42.want revenge! It is an extraordinary situation here, on the one hand of
:36:43. > :36:47.course it is an ultimate act of Christian charity, protecting people
:36:48. > :36:52.of another faith. On the other hand you can really feel the tension
:36:53. > :36:58.between the people inside here and the Muslims sheltering all around
:36:59. > :37:03.the outside. The moment the mass is over the fugutives move back,
:37:04. > :37:07.rearranging their meagre possessions. They have been fed
:37:08. > :37:12.mainly by the church, little has come from outside agencies. They
:37:13. > :37:16.can't stay much longer. The vast majority of Central Africa's
:37:17. > :37:21.Muslims, hundreds of thousands, have already left, thousands are dead.
:37:22. > :37:26.But there is no force yet willing or able to evacuate them, they are
:37:27. > :37:33.still waiting to be rescued. Or killed.
:37:34. > :37:37.Saudi Arabia is about to astonish the world tomorrow by reforming its
:37:38. > :37:43.human rights laws. It is famously a country keen on floggings and
:37:44. > :37:46.beheadings, punishments said to have been decreed by God and not at all
:37:47. > :37:51.keen on women doing things like driving cars. So what is the country
:37:52. > :38:00.now planning? Joining us from Geneva is our guest. He's the deputy Saudi
:38:01. > :38:06.Arabian minister of labour. What is the thing that most excites you
:38:07. > :38:12.about these reforms? Thank you for having me on your programme.
:38:13. > :38:16.Tomorrow we're having a significant report. I can say that the data and
:38:17. > :38:25.the reports will show that we have made a very big step and towards the
:38:26. > :38:29.human rights achievements of Saudi Arabia. Most have been accepted. And
:38:30. > :38:33.you know maybe half of these accepted already in and now
:38:34. > :38:36.implemented. I can mention especially with the recent
:38:37. > :38:43.initiatives that have been put in place in Saudi Arabia, the first one
:38:44. > :38:48.is about the ratificaton of 138 of the IOL regarding the minimum
:38:49. > :38:52.working age. The second one is the significant step that has been
:38:53. > :38:58.brought in Saudi Arabia, by signing an agreement with sending domestic
:38:59. > :39:01.workers into Saudi Arabia, and this agreement to protect the rights of
:39:02. > :39:07.the workers. We signed the agreement with the Philippines, India, Sri
:39:08. > :39:12.Lanka and Indonesian. I'm confident this report is making a very big
:39:13. > :39:15.step and the progress is part of what's happening in Saudi Arabia.
:39:16. > :39:21.And you are going to allow women to travel I believe, that's going to be
:39:22. > :39:24.big, they are driving around? Travelling for women in fact and
:39:25. > :39:31.also the issue of women we are taking it very seriously. And we are
:39:32. > :39:35.taking this you know issue as a holistic issue, we are empowering
:39:36. > :39:40.women that only with travelling but also different aspects. Education is
:39:41. > :39:45.a very important part. Also the second one is employment. If you can
:39:46. > :39:51.see that in the last 30 years we had only 50,000 of our women in the
:39:52. > :39:57.private labour market, and by the end of last year in December of
:39:58. > :40:02.2013, eight-fold that number, almost more than 400,000 of our women
:40:03. > :40:07.participating in our private labour market. Are they going to be able to
:40:08. > :40:12.drive now? In fact as I said, I mean we are taking, you can see
:40:13. > :40:17.tomorrow's report we have taken practical steps in order to empower
:40:18. > :40:26.women in all aspects of life. So they will be able to drive? As I
:40:27. > :40:32.said I would ask your audience to read the report tomorrow. You will
:40:33. > :40:34.see that a lot of things have been done as practical steps in our
:40:35. > :40:40.society. When you look at your society now and you think of it
:40:41. > :40:46.maybe 20, 30 years time how westernised to you think it will be.
:40:47. > :40:50.Do you think you will still have capital punishment and floggings and
:40:51. > :40:53.many of the things that you say are culturally important to you, or do
:40:54. > :41:02.you think you will be like western Europe? No, no, we don't think that,
:41:03. > :41:08.we are not just copying what is in the western, we will see everything
:41:09. > :41:11.good in Europe, and we have also our values, and also just an issue. We
:41:12. > :41:23.have taken that very seriously in fact. Saudi Arabia made a big reform
:41:24. > :41:29.in our justice system. In fact that is something we looked at seriously.
:41:30. > :41:38.Do you imagine giving up capital punishment? For tomorrow the report
:41:39. > :41:42.will see that. We waved capital punishment for miners, and for that
:41:43. > :41:47.punishment we are keeping it for the more serious crimes. And also we
:41:48. > :42:03.have a view for these cases in order to see and check about the
:42:04. > :42:09.apublicability for this If bat and ball cost ?1. 10 and the bat is ?# 1
:42:10. > :42:15.more than the bat how much is the ball. All of us answer 10p. It is an
:42:16. > :42:19.example of what the Nobel Prize winner calls fast-thinking, in this
:42:20. > :42:24.case it is also wrong thinking, of course the wrong answer is 5p, which
:42:25. > :42:31.you might get to by what he calls slow-thinking. His book Thinking
:42:32. > :42:36.Fast and Slow has won garlands around the world and sold by the
:42:37. > :42:38.shedload. I went to see him and asked him what was wrong with
:42:39. > :42:44.fast-thinking? Fast-thinking is better at what it does than
:42:45. > :42:52.slow-thinking. Slow-thinking is you know, not wonderful. Fast-thinking
:42:53. > :42:58.is mostly accurate, on occasion it is wrong. Can a snap judgment of the
:42:59. > :43:02.find that you can make in fast-thinking, can it be a good
:43:03. > :43:05.judgment? Most of the time it is. You make life and death decisions on
:43:06. > :43:08.whether or not to cross the street and you make them very well and with
:43:09. > :43:13.complete confidence. In that case I'm bound to you ask you why have
:43:14. > :43:17.you written the book? Part of my motivation for writing the book was
:43:18. > :43:23.to correct the mistake about my reputation. I'm known as a student
:43:24. > :43:29.of human error. And I don't want to be known that way. The balanced view
:43:30. > :43:33.of the human mind is certainly not negative, certainly not in my view.
:43:34. > :43:39.But you seem to be suggesting that on many occasions slow-thinking is a
:43:40. > :43:45.much more effective way to operate? Well, it is the more effective way
:43:46. > :43:50.to operate when fast-thinking is going wrong. Then the only way to
:43:51. > :43:57.fix that, if there is any, is by thinking slower. This is rare,
:43:58. > :44:00.occasionally under some predictable circumstances, actually. When you
:44:01. > :44:07.don't know the answer and you don't have the expertise a thought comes
:44:08. > :44:14.to your mind very fast and those you want to watch. If we apply this to
:44:15. > :44:19.political judgments where sometimes momentous decisions are made by
:44:20. > :44:24.statesmen and they always claim they are acting from principle and
:44:25. > :44:27.generally speaking they have an identifiable set of core beliefs and
:44:28. > :44:34.act in accordance of those and tend to not act out of accord with them.
:44:35. > :44:37.That's fast-thinking isn't it, it is not necessarily wrong is it? No it
:44:38. > :44:43.is not, fast-thinking, as I keep saying is not necessarily wrong.
:44:44. > :44:49.Indeed slow-thinking could lead to paralysis? Easily and often does.
:44:50. > :44:54.But sometimes you get people acting fast, you know, the standard example
:44:55. > :44:59.is I think for the next few decades until there is another one is the
:45:00. > :45:04.Iraq War. But this is a decision made on a gut feeling, which where
:45:05. > :45:10.the gut feelings should not have been trusted. And that is an example
:45:11. > :45:15.of fast-thinking going astray. Do you think Obama is a perpetrator of
:45:16. > :45:24.slow-thinking? Yes. I think it hurts him grievously. He seems indecisive?
:45:25. > :45:28.Yes. The public prefer leaders who decide quickly. So the public
:45:29. > :45:35.doesn't like slow-thinking in a leader. What about Putin, is he a
:45:36. > :45:41.fast or slow-thinking? My impression on what is happening now is that
:45:42. > :45:45.he's acting on emotion more than on calculation. So he's not thinking at
:45:46. > :45:50.all really? I think he is thinking, short-term. Can I ask a little bit
:45:51. > :45:55.about an area of the book where you deal with well being, happiness,
:45:56. > :45:59.this is becoming of some interest to political figures in this country
:46:00. > :46:04.and you propose that there could be a sort of well being index, as a
:46:05. > :46:08.well of measuring how a country is doing. How would that work, what
:46:09. > :46:12.would be in it? My preferences about what should be in an index of well
:46:13. > :46:18.being are not exactly what is being done currently. I would prefer to
:46:19. > :46:23.focus on misery rather than on well being. And I think misery can be
:46:24. > :46:28.measured and misery should be reduced. If there was a misery
:46:29. > :46:33.index, what sort of things will you measure? Oh, I mean you would
:46:34. > :46:39.measure, people can report on how much they have been suffering today.
:46:40. > :46:42.And whether the dominant emotion in their life has been positive or
:46:43. > :46:46.negative. You can count the number of people who are suffering. Can I
:46:47. > :46:53.ask you a personal question at the end of this, are you good at making
:46:54. > :46:58.decisions? Not very! Shouldn't you be? No! I mean you know I should be
:46:59. > :47:03.clever enough and I hope I am to know that I'm not very good at
:47:04. > :47:09.making decisions. So I would not be a good manager, not at all! I would
:47:10. > :47:16.probably not be a good risk taker, but you know I don't have to be so.
:47:17. > :47:23.I'm an old academic and we don't have to make many decisions that
:47:24. > :47:30.matter. That's it, we leave but a bit of noise, the organ at the Royal
:47:31. > :47:35.Festival Hall on the South Bank in London is black at full -- back at
:47:36. > :47:40.full blast. Two-thirds of it have been almost unplayed for years, now
:47:41. > :47:45.it is restored to its former glory and their resident organist couldn't
:47:46. > :48:23.wait to perform the Newsnight theme. Good night.
:48:24. > :48:31.Good evening, for many there is fine weather around on Wednesday, others
:48:32. > :48:32.seeing more cloud, northern and western areas seeing the thickest